NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - 82. Week 1 Pick 'Em Draft

Episode Date: September 9, 2022

Hosts Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers prepare for the first weekend of REAL NFL football by drafting their favorite picks for the weekend and previewing all the best matchups. (00:00) Intro (1:10) Pick 'Em Draft (33:00) Mailbag

This episode is brought to you by our good friends at NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. I'm sure by now you've all got back into your Sunday routines, but they could be even better. With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you get the most live NFL games all in one place, every game, every Sunday. And you can even watch up to four different games at once with MultiView, one of my favorite inventions of this decade. It's exactly what you need to catch all the action. Make your Sundays more magical. And also, YouTube TV is great. I got it this year.

It's awesome. Sign up now at youtube.com slash BS, device and content restrictions apply. Local and national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital-only games. Welcome to the NFL Stock Exchange podcast. In this episode, we are previewing week one in the NFL with a little twist. Connor and I are going to draft against each other some juicy spreads, over-unders on these games that we really, really like.

So it's going to give us a chance to preview at least eight games in the upcoming schedule, ones that we are really passionate about, some storylines, some player matchups, whatever it is that we are looking forward to. But also, as you guys know on this podcast, we like to keep a little skin in the game. So we're going to each draft four. That's what we'll do every single week on this Thursday podcast. We'll keep scoring, then we'll have a final record between the two of us at the end of the year and I don't know you guys will have to come up with something that the loser has to do or the winner gets to do I'm

Trevor Sikama with me as always is my co-host Connor Rogers let's ring that bell welcome to the opening bell of the NFL Stock Exchange Podcast. I'm Trevor Sikaba. That's Connor Rogers. Joining you guys for the first time live for the 2022 season. Getting you ready for kickoff here on Thursday night. Football with the Bills and the Rams. Connor, how we feeling, my man? It's our first time doing this Bad Boy Live. How do you feel? Dude, it's awesome. This is going to be a little Thursday tradition for us.

This will be the live Stock Exchange show of the three per week. This is a time where you can sneak those mailbag questions in at the end. We're going to be previewing the weekend, not just Thursday night football. This is going to be a lot of fun, dude. I can't wait. Yeah, I was an idiot and forgot to ask for questions for the mailbag this week. So we have one. We have one that somebody's all right does

and it's a rogue question but it's actually a really good question so we'll end the show with that and um it's actually a really good one so you guys can look forward to that and i promise i won't be dumb from this point forward uh and we will actually ask you for your questions so we can make sure that we get a mailbag in here every single week. Before we dive into what we're doing this week, which is we are drafting. What's the best way to say this? We are drafting games that we are going to pick. We are drafting game picks. So instead of just going through every team in the NFL,

every matchup, because we know there's some that are good, but there's some that are stinkers. Instead, what we're going to do is we're going to take all the games and say, okay, here's the spreads. Here's the over-unders. Let's draft against one another. Which ones that we think are more likely to hit. Connor's going to get his four.

I'm going to get my four, snake draft style, of course. You guys know on this podcast. And we'll keep score. So we'll keep score all 17 weeks of the regular season. 18 weeks, actually, of the regular season, and then we'll kind of have a final record at the end of the year so it puts a little bit more fun of skin in the game and ownership of the picks that we have.

I think this, Connor, I think this will be a fun way to do it. I've done a lot of game preview pick shows before, but this is the first time we've ever thrown this draft element of it into it. This is what we do, dude. For people that have listened to the NFL previewing every single NFL week, we were talking about this. We're like, how far are we going to the college week? And we came to the conclusion that, you know, for those who have missed it,

Tuesdays we are going to be doing our mostly college-heavy stock watch kind of show. This is a good way for us to ramp up into the nfl week while keeping the classic drafting theme yep well before we get kicked off you guys have like an hour and 15 minutes left to download pff's app on the app store if you have an apple device you can go see it pff or pro football focus search it you'll be able to find it and when you download it you can get everything that we have on there completely unlocked, totally free. It's got the fantasy football analysis. It's got the betting edge stuff. A lot

of things that we'll be referencing here on this show. It's got all the news, rumors, articles, injury report updates, everything, man. Go check it out. If you don't have the app, go download it now. PFF, anywhere that you have. You have an Apple device. It's anywhere on the Apple Store. You can check it out. PFF or pro football focus.

Connor, as I always do, because I try to be as gracious as possible. I'm going to give you the first pick here. It's snake draft style. So you're picking first and then I'm going to three, unless you'd rather go to three. I'll give you the choice. I'll be a true host about it, which you'd rather go first. You want back to back here.

What do you want? Classic, humble, gracious. So selfless Tampa Bay Trey style here and I am going to actually take the first pick uh you know I there's one that I feel really strongly about and it's week one I will warn you like and you know this but the audience nothing will humble you like week one, you know, nothing. You're not privy to any of the surprises around the NFL. There's just so much unknown. That's why week one is always the hardest. What I do know Trevor, or what I think I know, and people can roast me if I'm wrong, is that the saints should beat the Falcons by a touchdown. People come on now. You gotta be kidding me. Put twocons by a touchdown, people. Come on now. You got to be kidding me.

Two field goals, a touchdown, whatever you want to call it. The Saints are five-and-a-half-point favorites. Yes, they are going to Atlanta. That's why this is not up to a touchdown yet. Trevor, I know they traded Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. They still got a really good defense, and the Falcons just don't have a lot of weapons to overcome that. And at the end of the day, man, I just think the Saints offense

is not going to face much resistance in this game. I think the short passes to Alvin Kamara, I think Michael Thomas will be itching to go, ready to go. I know he's been a little banged up recently again, but he'll be ready to go out of the gate. That offensive line is still good. This line surprised me that i had to have it i like the saints minus five and a half yeah and it's moved a little bit more towards the saints i think this one opened up around four four and a half and so we're getting a little bit more towards new

orleans as people were basically thinking exactly what you were public. Public's on it. There's no way that they were going to lose this game or even not win this game by close to a touchdown or more. And it makes sense, right? You look at the Atlanta Falcons last year. That defense was bad. And, Connor, it really didn't get much better. That's what they do. It really didn't.

They were the third worst defense in the NFL when it came to coverage and an EPA per play perspective. And that was with A.J. Terrell being an elite corner on one side of the football. They still had the third worst numbers with EPA per play given up during against the pass. And you're going up against a team that Jameis Winston loves past football. Right. They're getting Michael Thomas back. Not only is he healthy, well, mostly healthy to this point. He doesn't hate New Orleans anymore, which is nice.

That's good. Good stuff. That's where you're playing. It's important here. They added Chris Olave. Trade out to go get him. And so that was a big addition there. And then I really like the addition of Jarvis Landry as well.

I think that that goes under the radar. So this is going to be a really good New Orleans Saints team. I think they start to prove that right out of the gate. And I agree. This was a, this was this one you liked. This was definitely on my list. This is definitely.

So I wrote down eight that I was most comfortable with. And this was absolutely one of my eight. It wasn't in my top three though. Wow. It was not in my top three. Wow. I don't, I don't know if I'm just wild for that. You're doing the dirty bird over there.

I don't know about all that. But first game that I have, my number one seed, which I'm getting here at pick number two, I like the Packers covering a point and a half against the Minnesota Vikings. Because we got the Vikings at home, and I know that it's a road game. I know that the wide receiver group is still unknown in Green Bay. We haven't seen anything yet. Alan Lazard has not practiced for two days in a row,

which I'm a little bit worried about. But it looks like Elton Jenkins and David Bakhtiari are back. So if that's the case, I still trust Aaron Rodgers to beat the Minnesota Vikings because that's what that is that's what this is right if we're talking a point point and a half spread you're basically saying do you think the Packers are going to be the beat the Vikings I do and even outside of Aaron Rodgers I look at this Packers defense and I think this is going to be one of the best Packers

defenses that they have had during this stretch of really good play, playoff runs, all that. So I think that it's going to be a really great matchup between Jair Alexander and Justin Jefferson. I hope we get to see that a lot. Brian Guttenkuhn said earlier this summer that Jair Alexander has the talent to be somebody who can move around the defense and almost play that shadow coverage role where it doesn't matter where Justin Jefferson's lining up. Now, I will say, because I've looked at the numbers on this,

Jair Alexander, because of his size, you might think, okay, this is a guy who's played inside out a lot. He's got a lot of experience in the slot. He really doesn't. He's played over 2,500 career snaps on the outside and only 300 in the slot. Justin Jefferson, meanwhile, over the last two years, about 30% of his routes have come from the slot. So I'm very curious to see how they deploy Alexander against Jefferson.

But for the most part, as a whole, I think the Packers are beating the Vikings. Therefore, I'm going to take them to cover the point and a half. What do you think about this one? I agree. So I do every game anyway for a pick and pull. That's it's a lot of fun. It's just an easy way to get out in front earlier in the week and go through every game. And I took Green Bay.

Now, they weren't in my top three for this show tonight because I think it's part of me buying so much into Minnesota's offense and fantasy this year that it kind of like poisoned my brain. Like Kirk Cousins guy. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's it. Cousins believer.

Yeah. Kirk Cousins with Kevin O'Connell. But no, I listen. It almost made me forget like, man, Green Bay is so good. The defense is so good. They're loaded at corner. They can rush the passer. They're very athletic in the middle of the field.

I am fascinated, fascinated, and not in a, you know, being a jerk kind of way, not in a sarcastic way, to watch their offense because, listen, watching Devontae Adams catch passes from Aaron Rodgers for the last decade or whatever has been a lot of fun. Aaron Rodgers is really good, too, without Devontae Adams. They are going to be very creative with the pass game with Aaron Jones people for whatever reason have completely forgot about big Bob Tunyon who seems to be healthy and I think is going to have a pretty good game as well

and and they got you know not great wide receiving talent obviously but because of that people are overlooking them their offense as a whole whether whether it's the line, the multiple backs, Green Bay, you're right, Trevor, they should win this game by at least two points. And I picked them to do the same. Who are you going with for your back-to-back pick though? Okay, so for my back-to-back pick, so, okay, laying some ground rules here

because we are awful at putting the ground rules at the beginning and then announcing them. Yeah, the next show or the next month yeah once once if i pick a game like if i pick the spread or the over under you can't pick anything from that game correct like that's that should be what we're going with that is that game will not be talked about again on the show in any capacity all right as long as we're clear for my second overall selection here i'm gonna go with the buccaneers facing the dallas cowboys and i'm gonna hit not the spread which the bucks i believe are favored by two or two and a half depending on where you look i'm going the over under because the over under for this game right

now i believe is set at 50.5 That's what I'm looking at right now. So 50.5 points, I'm going the over. These were two teams that were in the top five of scoring last year. I get it. There's been a lot of exodus, whether it was Cedric Wilson, whether it was Amari Cooper. How much can you lean on CeeDee Lamb? Is Michael Gallup going to be a go?

It looks like there's a chance he might play this weekend. Is Chris Godwin going to play this weekend is chris godwin gonna play this weekend eh probably not but still i think there's plenty of firepower fire up julio jones baby fire let's do it we're number six now it's dude what a what a look it's a saved his career as a buccaneer julio jones is catching eight touchdowns this year. You heard it here first. Okay, so he's just an Atlanta Falcon in his prime. Actually, that would have been like three. Yeah, he used to catch like three touchdowns a year in his prime. Yeah, that was actually being generous.

So I think that there is enough firepower between these two teams to light it up more than 25-25. I think that we are getting a low 30s,, mid thirties score between these two teams. The defenses have some nice players on them, but I don't think Trayvon Diggs is going to be quite the interception machine that he was last year. DeMarcus Lawrence, strong run defender last year,

but didn't really flash as a pass rusher. Michael Parsons is going to be an absolute animal, no doubt about it, but he is just one man. Although a wrecker of a one man is he on that defense as well i guess you're right he could do the dr strange thing where he multi maybe he's multiplying into multiple people on the field but uh look bucks defense is good as well but i got faith in dac prescott i think cd lane is about to light the world on fire i think we're about to see

some fireworks just like we saw open the season last year cowboys and buccaneers a lot of fireworks in that game as well i'm going over 50 and a half here for tampboys and Buccaneers, a lot of fireworks in that game as well. I'm going over 50 and a half here for Tampa Bay and Dallas. It's a lot of points, but I'm with you. I like it. It's fun. It's one of those games where you're rooting for the points. You're rooting for, you know,

obviously to see Dak without Amari, you know, how CD land functions as a volume number one, the Bucs, man. What is there to say? Even if godwin's not ready to go they are just so so deep at wide receiver it is just unbelievable um both of those lines i think will be okay in that game i know dallas has dealt with a lot of panic over the summer but i think both lines will hold up enough that there will be a lot of points in that game so it's funny you took an over for your second pick because for my second pick isn't it i'm taking it under and it's set really low so

i'm basically telling you i have no offensive expectations can i guess can i guess yeah i think you know it is it niners bears no oh okay that one's at like 40. Yeah, that's insane. That one's at like 40 and a half, and I was like, oh, boy. Okay. They are telling you in Niners-Bears that they think the Bears won't score and the Niners will be running out the clock in the second half with that total. That's what Vegas is telling you.

I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. I think the Bears are – no, no, no. The Niners, of course, are favored by a touchdown. Yeah. So the over-under is at 40, and they're favored by of course are favorite touchdown favorites touchdown yeah so the over-unders at 40 and their favorite road touchdown favorites road touchdown favorite they think the bears are gonna stink yeah i mean it's there's some disrespectful road favorites the the niners being a touchdown over chicago at chicago the ravens being a touchdown over the jets at the jets that's vegas telling you like you guys are really bad um so okay so what I am taking is under 42 for Carolina against Cleveland and there was a big part of me I had written down this is one of my

favorites to pick I was gonna just go straight up with Carolina covering a point and a half against the Browns but I feel more comfortable even with the under in this game. I just don't see a lot of offense here, Trevor. I think both teams are going to try to get the run game and short area pass game going early. I think it's not really going to come out of the gate in an overly explosive fashion. And that they will try to start actually throwing down the field a little bit when things open up in the second half, but not enough to make up this ground. I, this to me will be a game that ends somewhere in the teens most likely. And that's, that's not

getting over, uh, that 42 point Mark. I'm kind of surprised this wasn't even at 39, 38. I think we got a low scoring ugly game you know baker is going to be fired up to play the browns but the browns have a good defense and on the other end with jacoby brissett the browns are going to try to run the ball so i think this is a fast-paced game that does not have an overwhelming amount of touchdowns i wasn't touching this one i'm going to be honest with you i was not touching well you're a little skeptical on carolina you've been consistent with that i'm super skeptical on carolina obviously skeptical about what the browns are going to be because on paper you take away quarterback and this browns

roster is one of the best in the nfl right so it's it's elite it's so many different positions but what is jacoby bursette going to be for them he has been a i'll say successful spot starter a couple of instances throughout his career but how much does that matter now as an 11 game starter knowing that he is the guy there is he going to be able to give you that same kind of ability especially right out of the gate for this cleveland browns team on the road sure and then right on the road of course and then baker is just this is such an emotional game for Baker Mayfield. If you told me that Baker Mayfield is going to throw for like 300 yards and three touchdowns, all right, I'd believe you.

That's wild, but I'd believe you. If you told me that Baker Mayfield was going to try to do way too much and would throw like 200 yards and one touchdown, one pick, I'd be like, all right, that's probably pretty standard for it too so the range of outcomes for Browns Panthers was way too wide for me to be able to touch it but look if you think that these teams are going to be able to come out and play the kind of brand of football that they want to play I think we're probably going to get that over so I don't know I wouldn't be touching this one you're uh you're a braver man than i for doing it but uh hey bold choice you're going with uh you're going with to a high scoring affair and anytime that's

the case uh that's a fun football game at least so we got next yeah this is one of those games where you're like man you're right you just you don't know what's gonna happen so i think that my ultimate outcome is i think not a lot is gonna know what's gonna happen so i think that my ultimate outcome is i think not a lot is gonna happen it's kind of what i took away from it so all right my next one here i'm gonna go back to a spread and it's a big one i'm gonna take the steelers getting almost a touchdown against the bengals this is on my list i I just, man, I know they got blown out one time last year for sure against the Bengals. I get it, right?

Number one, they lost 41-10 at the end of November, that game. The Steelers just with, and they lost by two touchdowns in the September game, but the Steelers just had nothing going with Big Ben at quarterback. And let's not forget how good this defense is. I'm not saying the Steelers are going to outright win this game. The Bengals are favored by a touchdown for a reason. They are a damn good football team, and they are home. They were just in the Super Bowl.

They have a ton of young ascending talent. The offensive line's a lot better. But I still think it'll be an interesting game. I don't think it's going to be a blowout in the sense that, you know, the books are kind of telling you. I think the Steelers' defense keeps them around the entire game i think that they will be able to uh move the ball a little bit with chubisky i don't think he's going to have this overwhelming resurgence that some people are hoping for or expecting but i think the steelers have enough weapons i am fascinated to watch their

offensive line that's where my big concerns lie for the steelers but i think this game will not get out of hands yeah well I was just gonna say you mentioning the offensive line I was just gonna say which offensive line because I think that the interior for the Bengals is also a big x-factor point I guess I'll say for this game because you've got the very experienced very talented Cam Hayward going up against either Cordell Volson, who's a rookie playing left guard, or Alex Capa, who's a brand new right tackle player on this line. So, I mean, that's a major sticking point because if Hayward can kind of have his way in the middle,

which he has with a lot of really good offensive lines, then that's some quick pressure on Burrow. All of a sudden, you really got to go to your quick passing game you can't be sitting back there you can't be i you can't be doing what the bangles want to do which is i think really stretch the field on you and let drop back passing yeah that's that that's the biggest area of concern for me but that line it's a lot of points and i get last year they're like last year obviously the steelers got blown out by them and lost pretty badly the time before that so i just think the steelers team is going to be a little different this year. I think they're going to be ready to play.

I'd be surprised if they won. I'm not surprised. I'm not saying they'll win, though. But I definitely think they'll hang around at a minimum. This might have been one of the next picks that I make. So this was a solid selection versus the board that i had on here now because i was thinking about this game mike tomlin getting six and a half come on man maserati mitch at quarterback maybach mitch i have some reservations there but yeah so better than

so better than what was left of big ben mini cooper mitch i don't know i mean i can keep going you know any car that starts with m let's call him honda civic mitch no it's got to be an m you go you go like mazda he'd go like mazda mitch if you want to go not maserati sorry what do you got not maybach mitch no no no that's that's not doing it for you okay all right the next next team i got i got a little back-to-back here i'm gonna go thursday night football i can do that game hasn't game hasn't happened yet right podcast right before the game yeah i'm not cheating i don't got any inside information going bills baby well bill you are okay i am not i'm going bill i'm going bills to cover two and a half you think uh do you think the rams are gonna win the game

no i think the bill if i really had a nitty-gritty pick i think i think the bills are gonna win by like a point i think this line is this is my most perfect line of the week in my eyes like i looked at all the lines and i was like that's the one that's like on the money i think this is gonna be a one point game maybe a two point game i i couldn't the bills are really good the bills hype is as crazy as I've ever seen it in my lifetime. It's too high. It's too high. I want to be like this.

If the Bills lose this game, it's not Panic City for me. It's a tough game. The Rams just won the Super Bowl, and you're flying across the country. I think the expectations are almost unfair at this point. I think the expectations are way too high on the Bills, and that's not even to say that it's too high. I don't think they can achieve that ceiling the nfl the margin for error and the level of competition between the worst team and the best team or actually i should take that out i should say like the teams that are

good in the nfl it's so small it might be just one single possession one single it was well it was against the cheese you're right yeah it was so I think that this is going to be a really close contest. But the fact that this one's less than a field goal, I like Buffalo in this one. Okay. I do think Buffalo is going to be victorious. And I wanted to get some skin in the game for Thursday night. I like it.

I wanted to do that. I wanted to make sure that we got that into this show. So, I mean, you think it's going to be a close contest? I mean, we've got Stefan Diggs going up against Jalen Ramseysey i'm not so much i'm not i don't know how much you'll shadow him because he hasn't in the past they've only lined up twice in the past once in 2016 week 14 when the jags were playing the vikings and digs caught like a 10 yard comeback route on him and that was basically it and then in 2020 in week three the early parts of the covid year ramsey was matched up against digs and digs didn't really do anything except he did catch a touchdown

on me i remember so that's what obviously makes the highlights and everybody talks about that and all and that so i'm not sure how much ramsey's gonna shadow step on digs but it's a great match up there getting to see gabe davis against this off there that defense as well dawson knox newly paid top five tight end getting to show off whether or not he's worth that uh fancy new contract so i think there's a lot of fireworks i think there's a lot of possibility for the bills to score a lot of points i i think it's going to take the rams a game to keep up with them tonight so i'm going to ask the bills and i'll give it to the bills here i like two props in this game i I stayed away from the over under, I stayed away from the spread. I liked, um, Gabe Davis to score a touchdown, which is, you know,

obviously I would say a pretty popular pick, but it's still plus money by far. And Josh Allen to score a rushing touchdown as well. I think they're going to do everything they can to take digs out of this game, which is good luck. Even when when teams try that it doesn't always work but i think the bills are heavily the bills have no fear of leaning on gabe davis if teams are going to do that this year i'll say that speaking of not being able to stop somebody raheem morris i will say when i was reading up about this game the defense coordinator for los angeles r, anytime he was asked about Josh Allen, either the first thing out of his mouth or the second thing out of his mouth was talking about how athletic Josh Allen was.

And he was an unbelievable rushing threat last year. Had the highest rushing grade for any quarterback in the NFL. That was above Lamar Jackson, above Jalen Hurts for us last year. He had the most explosive runs of 10 or more yards. He had the most forced missed tackles per attempt like he was just a absolute force when he was able to break the pocket and make things happen with his legs Raheem Morris is very very aware of that I'm curious to see how he's going to deploy his defense to try to stop it whether it's kind of containing him a little bit with those defensive ends those long defensive ends he has maybe using

Ernest Jones or Bobby Wagner to spy him a little bit one of his inside linebackers so that is going to be a telling tale I think of of whether or not the Bills are going to be victorious and how much they win by is uh is Josh Allen's leg there before we get to my next pick I got to talk to people about our friends at DraftKings you can get ready for week one action with DraftKings Sportsbook the official betting partner of the NFL you bet just five5 on any football game, you get $200 in free bets instantly. Plus, everyone can now experience the thrill of DraftKings' early win promotion. If you get up seven points, you win. That's it.

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or text HOPE-NY. One per new customer, minimum $5 deposit and wager, $200 issued as eight $25 free bets. So that means that you guys can come back to this podcast every Thursday, at least eight weeks in a row, and just put your $25 on something, whatever you think the most compelling argument is that we made. That's a good way. That's a good way to come back. Next one I got. you know what connor i'm going a little bit against the grain on this one okay i'm going to like that i feel like i'm going up against popular opinion here

going against the public i got the raiders getting three and a half on the road at the los angeles so did I that was one of my next ones that was my next one okay so I got them getting three and a half points brother it's too many points with JC Jackson out of this because it looks like he's not going to play in this game that seriously limits I think what the Chargers are going to be able to do on the back end of their defense they have Michael Davis who's a taller corner, but Asante Samuel jr. Is a smaller corner. Bryce Callahan's a smaller corner and they got to go up against Devante

Adams, Darren Waller, and Hunter Renfro. Hunter Renfro is one of the best separation short yardage guys in the NFL. Darren Waller is an absolute mismatch animal. And Devante Adams is of course, if not the best wide receiver in the NFL, he's top two top, whatever. So I think that this group with Derek Carr, what they, what they know they're going to have to be able to do to make up for that defense, which is not very good with the Raiders. I think guns are going to be a blazing for this one. Then getting more than a field goal is the thing I like

the most. I think this is going to be a cutthroat matchup, but them getting three and a half is the line that I like. So I'm going to go with the Raiders here as the road team getting those points, man. It's I love it. I absolutely love it. It would have been my next pick.

It's listen, a lot of hype around the chargers and I get it. I think Herbert's going to have just a mammoth year. It wouldn't shock me if he finishes as the fantasy QB1 this year. I think that they are loaded on defense. You branch in JC Jackson injury. That's a big one. I think the Raiders are not going to be –

they're going to be no joke this year, right? They're not just going to get rolled over in that division. I know it's a brutal division. I know the Chiefs are awesome. I get it. The Chargers have a lot of hype. The Broncos with Russ, but the Raiders made a lot of moves this

offseason, a lot of big moves as well, and I think they're one of those teams, the Raiders, that maybe at the end of the year the division record isn't great. It's not what you hoped for, but the division games, the differential, I think it's going to be really tight. I think they're going to play a lot of close division games, and I think that starts

week one, Like you said, tread more than a field goal. Just seems like a little too much. Yeah. We'll see. Yep. Really looking forward to right before you get to your, I just wanted to mention,

really looking forward to that. Uh, Ray Sean Slater versus Chandler Jones matchup. Cause Chandler Jones probably going to be the one that's playing that right outside linebacker spot. While Max Crosby plays that Leo spot on the left side of the defense. Those two guys are going to be going up against each other. And Chandler Jones for as great of a pass rusher as he has been,

he's not the best run defender. And I will say that Ray Sean Slater graded out really well as a run defender, as a rookie. So I'm thinking that he takes that up another notch. And so we're going to be all watching the pass rush reps where that's the thing that gets the money that's what we're going to be paying attention to but pay attention to the run blocking reps from ray sean slater too if he can bully that left side of the line of scrimmage that might be a different difference maker in more than just the pass rush game like a lot

of people are going to focus on with that matchup so i wanted to say that before you moved on to your last pick last pick I mentioned this one earlier and this was not I wouldn't call it an emergency pick but we went through a lot of the ones already on both ends that I really liked so now we're getting a little bit further down here where you know you're like okay I feel okay about this I'm gonna take the Niners beating the Bears by a touchdown and man I know it's at Chicago I get it I it's sounding like George Kittle might not play in this game he has a groin injury he's not practiced this week that's big especially when you're trying to get a young quarterback going and Trey Lance Trevor and listen Justin Fields had a really

strong finish to the preseason that was really promising I don't know how Chicago can block the Niners up front I don't I think it totally ruins the front. I think it totally ruins the game. Honestly, I think it totally ruins the game. I think Nick Bosa is going to have two sacks in this game. I think the defensive line is going to feast. I think it's going to put – I know Trey Lance has been up and down over the summer so far. But if San Francisco can get any kind of a lead in this game and Chicago is forced to start to drop back and throw a lot with a young quarterback who is, you know, getting better, but doesn't have the most around him.

I think it puts him in a really bad spot where San Francisco can win this game by more than by a touchdown or more. I, this just feels like a lot of things are not going the bear's way in this matchup at all and it just all starts with blocking that niners front four i just i don't see it feels like the only thing going the bear's way is the kill might not play now right yeah groin injury so it's gonna be a very heavy debo game it will i mean it will be a heavy depot game but obviously you know george kiddo can be a great blocking tight end as well so that that would have been something that make it a little bit easier i just trust kyle i do too right yeah i i think that kyle is one of those you know i went into my season predictions coming up with my final win loss records and i really did not think that i would like the niners

as much as i did but every time i went through each week and I looked at the Niners matchup and I was just like, sell yourself on it. I just trust Kyle Shanahan. He's just, he's just a damn good coach. Good coaches winning this league, man. Especially when they have the, that kind of defense behind it. D'Amico Ryans. And I think, I think the 49ers defense is going to be one of the best in the NFL this year.

I, I, I'm higher on that aspect of their team maybe than anything else. I think D'Amico Ryan's will pick his job at the end of this year. That's what I think. And basically how I'll play it until I see a reason not to, when the Niners are playing a team that has a questionable offensive line and either a young or questionable quarterback, I will always take their points. I will always take them to cover. We'll go through so actually you're four i'll name your four and my four and

then we'll uh i want to get to some comments in the chat uh you had the saints to cover five and a half playing the atlanta falcons you had the panthers browns over 42 and a half correct under 42 under 42 and a half under 42 and a half steelers getting six and a half versus the bengals uh and then you have the 49ers to overcome what was it was it seven was it officially six and a half six and a half all right all right that points matter i'll give you i'll give you six and a half. Yeah, you will. In Vegas, you will too. Sunset in some places. I'll give you six and a half. I have the Packers to cover. Point and a half on the road against the Minnesota Vikings.

I got the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys going over 50 and a half total. Bill's covering that two and a half point spread against the Los Angeles Rams here on Thursday Night Football. And then I've got the Raiders getting that three and a half points as my final pick there so we're gonna keep score we're gonna keep score all year uh and then obviously have our combined records when week 18 is all done and uh we're gonna we're gonna have we're gonna we'll do something for it I don't know what we're gonna do maybe I gotta buy a Jets jersey you gotta buy a Bucks jersey I will never make you do that I don't know look the new Jets jersey. You got to buy a Bucs jersey. I will never make you do that. I don't know. Look, the new Jets jersey, I don't hate, man. Actually, I'd probably buy a throwback Jets jersey.

There you go. Now you're getting it. I might buy a current players throwback Jets jersey. Can I do that? Is that allowed? Yeah, I guess. Because people do that with the Bucs all the time, right? I see it in the NFL shop, and I'm like, I don't know if I'm on board with it. They'll take Tom Brady, and they'll make a creamsicle jersey out of it.

Yeah, which they don't wear those anymore, right? You're bringing them back, though. They are, and I'm glad they are. Aren't they very controversial? I don't know. I don't know how. They're beautiful. They're a great uniform i

love the i love the uh i love the uh the creek no it is funny when you see like the the jets all black uniform and it's like joe namath it's like it's like i get it but i don't i don't like it i don't like i have one i have like it. I have one Jets jersey. I have the 90s. There's no way you only have one Jets jersey. Oh, yeah. I have one Jets jersey. And it's a, like, borderline recent purchase. I am not a big football jersey guy.

Were you ever? Like, have you seen one? Oh, yeah, when I was a kid. When I was really young, yeah. Okay, okay, okay. All right. I have a 90s Keyshawn Johnson jersey. You king.

That's it. You absolutely king. And we can align there. We can. I think at one point I had a Bucks red and pewter Keyshawn Johnson. Love it. Because who didn't, right? Keyshawn was the jersey, wherever he was at the moment.

Actually, Mike Allstott was the jersey. Oh, my God. You've got to wear your shoulder pads when you go out you actually yes you have that's the issue yeah that's the that's the way that it is um teacher l said it was teacher l's getting on us about picking the raiders over the chargers this season i'm not taking the raiders to finish better than the chargers i don't just. Yeah. Just the game. Just one game. They could lose and we could still be right.

Just the points. Yeah. Look, that's how we stay around in this business. We could lose and we could still be right. Logan Hurst saying he's running through a brick wall for Dan Campbell. What do you think of the Lions? I ended up having the Lions at seven wins this year. I got them at seven. this year i think i got

him at seven i'd be right around six or seven okay all right yeah i i i was really scared of that game because the eagles are going to be really good but yeah think about how caffeinated dan campbell's team is for week one like if this was like october i'd be like it's gonna be more than caffeine brother yeah i don't know how to tell you this yeah exactly so i mean i think the eagles win and i do think they cover but i was afraid of it i think people are have gotten a little unfair with the lions as well they won three games last year like if you're expecting them to win nine plus you're out of your mind no no no no no i think six i think six or seven is fair. And I'd be like, Hey, they're moving in the right direction. Sebastian asks this one.

What would be more crucial? The Rams wide receiver and tight end against the bills, DBS or the bills front seven against the Rams. I would go bills front seven. Oh, see, I would go bills. DBS just because they don't have Trey white and Kyra Elam's going to start. And he's a, he's a rookie. Right.

So it's like— Sure. They played without White for a while last year, though. They did. They did. But, you know, we— I mean, the safety duo is great. I think this is a good question.

I normally lean up front, so I normally would have agreed with you. That's why, yeah. While I was just saying that out loud, I was like, uh— It's a really good question. There's not like an easy answer. No Trey White in a rookie corner going up against a rejuvenated Allen Robinson and a guy who almost caught 2,000 yards last year in Cooper Cup. It could be tough.

Not to mention Tyler Avey. Oh, we've got a Miata Mitch. So we've got another Mitch nickname there, Miata. I like that. That's good. Good, good, good. Shout out for Cordell Volson as I'm scrolling up here jesse also thinks the bears are gonna stink all right welcome to thursday night's on the stock exchange we would agree we would agree

there was some jets talk at the top i'm trying to uh cody cody wants to know where the roy lopez jersey is yeah i know you just said you're not a jersey guy, but... No, no, but here's the thing. I will gladly get jerseys for special occasions. Like a cause? Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's true. There needs to be on the brick on certain shows the Roy Lopez jersey behind me.

Yeah, that would be a nice touch. Yeah. I don't think I'll wear it on the show, but I'll gladly hang it behind me on the brick. That would be a nice touch yeah i don't think i'll wear it on the show but i'll gladly hang it behind me on the brick that would that would be a very nice touch uh if i get if i find my if i find some uh old shoulder pads that i could wear with the roy lopez jersey i'll wear it on the show if you still have shoulder pads you're just laying around as a 30 year old adult your girlfriend is about to throw them out or move out one of the two yeah one of the two be alarming one of the two okay before we get to our lone mailbag question of the week because i'm an idiot gotta talk to you guys about our newest partner revolutionizing the world of

sports betting and fan engagement by making sports fandom profitable that company is symbol and i bought some stocks on some teams i'm gonna let you know in a second when I'm done with this ad. Symbol is the stock market for sports. They were a PFS sponsor last year, and now they are back for this football season. Symbol lets you trade pro and college teams like stocks and even earn cash dividend payouts when your teams win. Symbol took the thrill of sports betting and combined it with the profitability of the stock market to give you a platform where fortune favors the fan.

You can download the Symbol mobile app on iOS by searching S-I-M-B-U-L-L in the App Store. Use the promo code NFLSE to help out the podcast and receive a free team stock valued up to $150 upon signing up. PFF teams getting into Symbol action this season. Yesterday, I was looking at a couple of schedules as i was going through things and i i bought a couple of shares of two teams so far did i dip my toe in the water i went bananas today you did you bananas okay all right so i dip my toe in the water a little bit because i want to see how week one goes i should have done that because i'm i might be a coward i bought a couple of shares of the

washington commanders because i think that they opened the season against the jacksville jaguars think we're making money there i like the price line and where they were at i think they were at 30 bucks a share so i like where they're at i think they're going to get the dub over the jags this weekend and then they're scheduled through the first five games of the season it's pretty easy so i'm hoping to capitalize on that sell it maybe once we get to a quarter way through the season same thing with the eagles and the Eagles, I might hold onto them a little bit long-term. They were more expensive stock, but dude, their schedule is so easy. It's so easy to an easiest in the NFL. I went through their exercise. I don't know if you saw

this and we did this on a daily show. I ended up having the Eagles going 13 and four. I believe it never, I would have never thought that that would have been the case and i went through the schedule and i'm like dude i can't even find the losses well the division is not any good division's not any good and everybody they play outside of the division stinks yeah so it's great so i uh i bought some shares of washington i bought some shares of philadelphia uh who you you went bonkers you didn't You didn't dabble outside the NFL? Oh, no, not yet. Not yet, not yet.

So NFL stock, I bought expensive one, but I bought Chiefs stock that I'll hold the whole year because I know the beginning of their schedule is hard. We say that, though, like the Chiefs are the Chiefs. Like, yeah, their schedule is hard, but everybody playing them is like, oh, God, we have to play the Chiefs. So I bought Chiefs stock because, quite frankly, I think they're going to win the Super Bowl this year, and i'm just going to ride it ride that out the whole year uh and then i just bought stock of my favorite teams just to endure more pain i bought rangers

stock i bought meth stock i had a time in my life why would you do that i had the time of my life no no no you gotta counter you gotta hedge it. You got to bet the teams that your teams are playing. So either you're a happy kid inside or you made money. That's a good point. Well, there was some logic to the Mets buy, which, I mean, I say that. But the Mets schedule in September is like the easiest in baseball. So I'm like, oh, you know, maybe this will go my way. I thought the Rangers would start to get out of control

if they start out hot this year, coming off the surprise appearance in the conference final last year. So I was like, let me get this now. Yeah, I had a good time. I had a really good time. It's supposed to be about having fun. No, it is about having fun. I know it's about...

And now, look, if your teams win, not only are you happy, you make money. you make money. So all like, all like the shots that you're going to buy afterwards, the fancy IPAs that you like to drink. Yeah. They're on, uh, they're on, they're on symbol. So you get, uh, you get that. Just order me, just order me a Coors Light with yours. I can, I can keep it. Deal. Absolutely. Daniel said last year I sold the calves when I was using symbol, which, um,

by the way, somebody in the comments said i feel bad they said here we go a real nfl commentary amongst the trash that's out there what's up guys let's go and then we started reading the symbol ad and he goes and a commercial oh man we're sorry i'm sorry for the timing there, but it is football-related. Symbol, if you missed it, it's a cool way to have a stock market amongst teams. It's very on-brand for the show. It's just a way that you can have a little bit more fun. It's a different way to get some skin in the game, have some fun watching these games.

Daniel said, last year I sold the Cavs on Symbol right before last season started like an idiot, proceeded to go from one of the worst teams to almost making the playoffs could have made some uh could have made some serious money kevin said donovan mitchell oh yeah they do god kevin said not emotionally hedging is lame go big or go home that's right good man so he's on your team so he's on your team all right let me pull up this one question that we have. Cathal asked this one. Big listener of NFLSC, so big shout-out to him. Thank you so much for listening.

His question is, who are you guys' picks to be the last winning, winless team, sorry, of this season? He said, I've got a Jets ticket at 10-1 odds, which I think is a great value given their current quarterback situation with Zach Wilson out till week four. This is one of my favorite prop bets of the year, and it never gets any airtime. Nobody ever talks about it. So he actually sent me the odds for the teams that have the highest odds to be the last winless team in the NFL. You got Houston Texans plus 350. Atlanta Falcons plus 450. Jets jets plus 700 seahawks plus a

thousand lions plus a thousand and then you got the chicago bears at plus 1100 the jaguars at uh plus 1300 i i it's tough to admit but the jets one is is a good thought process because man they're not if you were just making lines because what's the schedule they wouldn't be favored in my opinion in a game if you were making lines today until the bears come to new york on november 27th oh my gosh so like after thanksgiving dude this is not good it's so i get the thought process there they got the ravens the browns bengal steelers they play the entire afFC North in a row. Like how much does the league office hate the Jets?

This schedule is like utterly ridiculous. That's pretty brutal. Utterly ridiculous. They get a stretch where they get the Packers and the Broncos back to back. Obviously, they play the Bills twice because they're in their division. Texans have the highest odds, I think, because a lot of people think they're gonna suck but texans schedule is home versus the colts okay on the road against the broncos and then they got chicago they could be the bears they host the chargers then they go to the jaguars and then they go to uh the raiders so i don't

think that that one's absolutely i would not take those odds at all. The Falcons, the reason the Falcons aren't the highest is because they see Seattle week three. And some people probably think they could win that game, and they could. But if they lose that game, they're in big trouble for a while as well, like the Jets. I think the only other one, I just looked at the Jags schedule, and I wouldn't bet on the Jags either, I don't think.

No, no, no, no, no. There's too much variance there there's bears plus 1100 they got niners packers texans giants vikings commanders yeah it's easy i think dude i hate to say it brother i i know i get it i hate to say well without they're starting joe flacco like yeah i get it i get it it's i hate to say it brother it's kind of surprising they are not they weren't top two it was the texans and falcons yeah yeah maybe because maybe vegas is really low on the jacoby brissett browns maybe Maybe. But the Browns have good roster. Evan asked in the chat, who do you like in an NFL Survivor League?

Do you play Survivor League? I think it's the only thing I don't do. You don't do a Survivor League? At some point, you've got to draw the line in the sand. You do. I am in a Survivor League. I'm trying to remember which team I picked. Who was it? It might have been the eagles oh okay but the eagle schedule is pretty easy no it might have been the commanders

i think it was the commanders because the commanders at home are at home against the jags i don't have i don't have a ton of confidence in the commanders i don't have a ton of confidence in the Commanders. I don't have a ton of confidence in Carson Wentz. So I don't know how many other times I'm going to be able to pick the Commanders. Man, I picked Jacksonville to cover at a minimum. Oh, no. That would scare me a little bit if I were you. But week one's hard.

Week one is hard. I would pick the Saints. You don't want the obvious one. Saints one should be a freebie. Boy, the Falcons better not win that game. It's all I've talked about tonight. And that schedule is pretty difficult. I'd be cool with somebody

picking the Saints. Because this is a dub. This is a dub here. I think you're good on those ones. I actually have another mailbag question. Are you ready for this one? Let's do it. I did not read this one ahead of time. We is the i mean we're firing from the hip here uh firing the nfl the nfl has expanded into the emerging markets of westeros with a new division

the teams are the lannisters which are the lions uh targaryen dragons winterfell wolverines baratheon bucks choose any head coach in qb to fit these houses for example i think tom brady would fit his lannister yep i mean sure uh no said to play the game better than the rest yeah no that's actually a good one okay so uh dan campbell has to be a baratheon right right? I mean, he's the head coach of the Baratheon Bucks. I like Tom Brady as a Lannister. So I did a stream for Bleacher Report, Game of Thrones NFL stream, and I put Brady in house Lannister. That feels like the right one.

Josh Allen is the Winterfell Wolverines quarterback. I wish Ryan Fitzpatrick was still in the league, so him and his beard could be the Winterfell Wolverines quarterback. I wish Ryan Fitzpatrick was still in the league, so him and his beard could be the Winterfell Wolverines. It's got to be Josh Allen. I think Sean McVay has got to be the head coach with Tom Brady, right? With the Lancers? Absolutely. So Sean McVay and Tom Brady.

We got Dan Campbell. And who's Dan Campbell's quarterback? For the Baratheon Bucks? Yes. Tricky. This has to be like a serious, gritty. I mean, that might be Josh Allen. Gardner Minshew?

I think that's it. I think he's a Baratheon Buck. Maybe, I guess. It's got to be. Who's going to be a Targaryen? I mean, blonde hair, so it's got to be Trevor Lawrence, right? Yeah. But he's not like the Targaryens.

Who's like a Targaryen? Aaron Rodgers. You think Aaron Rodgers is like a Targaryen? a target yes absolutely even though his cameo in the show he gets burned by one yes he is absolutely every bit of a targaryen okay all right i tried who's their coach who is their coach it's got to be somebody like intense, but strategic. That's a tricky part. That could have been McVay. Yeah, McVay's the Lannister Brady.

McVay tree, though, is nice. It's on point. I don't think I don't think we can get rid of that one. I do agree with the blonde aspect of it. That does matter here. Tricky. What, uh, so Baratheon Bucks was Campbell and Minshew. Winner, Minshew.

He's got it spinning. Yeah, somehow it gets in the show. Well done. Lannisters, we have Brady and McVay. You have Aaron Rodgers for the Targaryens. And Kyle Shanahan? Yeah, that's it. For the Targaryens? Yeah, that's it.

I feel like it's not the worst. Winterfell. Winterfell. This could be Robert Sala, maybe? It could be Robert Sala. Brian Dable? Could be Brian D be Robert Sala. Brian Dable? Could be Brian Dable. I actually like Brian Dable.

Brian Dable's probably the one. Let's go Brian Dable. And then was Josh Allen this one? Yeah, Josh Allen's the king of the North. Okay. Oh, you know what? That actually fits. That actually fits.

Yeah. See, Kevin said that Trevor the the the lannister hair yeah tom said minchu is the dornish qb oh that is very good he's like the viper that is very the door house dorn is a slept on house it is very slept on house the hand that's a good one rogers has the targaryen flip of a coin they're crazy vibes that's for sure oh i'm just reading the chat tom also said frank reich is ned stark reich is a good winterfell coach reich would be a good who's better table or right i think i'm leaning with reich i could even i could even go Doug Peterson, honestly, in that bucket as well.

You know who's very Ned Stark? Not in appearance at all whatsoever, but Sean McDermott. Oh, yes. Sean McDermott is just, he's got Ned Stark qualities. And then you're pairing him with Josh Allen. You know what? Yeah, family coming together you know what the starks didn't get the starks didn't get enough uh pain no i was gonna say the opposite

they didn't get enough happiness yeah that's a better point so great question from chris that was that was a great question i that one took a little bit longer for us to think about. I love crossover. Any football crossover content is like you and I is like, that's our peak of podcasting. Jake said the Cowboys should be in the Game of Thrones division for how their season ends every year. I assume that he is quoting the, if you think this has a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention from Ramsey Bolton.

Yeah. So, all right, we'll end it there. A Ramsey Bolton quote. What a way to end the, it's probably time to go. What a way to end the podcast on guys.

Thank you so much for watching, watching the, the first live stream here. Next week, as we do the same thing, we'll have another preview draft where we're drafting the best games our favorite games our favorite spreads that we're looking forward to this weekend love y'all i'm trevor sycamore that is connor rogers we will see you guys monday morning to recap everything that happened in the nfl in week one see you guys