NFL Stock Exchange: An NFL Draft Podcast - THE GIANTS WIN THREW THE 2025 DRAFT ORDER INTO CHAOS

Episode Date: December 31, 2024

With the Giants, Jags and Raiders all winning in week 17, Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers run through every scenario of what the 2025 NFL Draft order could be following week 18 next week. They run through what each team has to play for and get into all the possible scenarios and who needs the top picks the most.

Welcome to the opening 17 in the NFL and what could be now with the draft order, we thought we knew it was going to happen. Now we have no idea. The Giants win. The Raiders win. The Jags win. Connor, we're in chaos right now.

All hell is broken loose. All hell. What could possibly happen now Now, a week from today, of course, you guys are going to get the first mock draft with the finalized order for the non-playoff teams. We will get that to you, but we couldn't wait until then to talk about the draft order because there is so much at stake with Week 18.

People are going to talk about what's at stake with the playoffs. Not on this channel. We're drafting. Who cares about winning? Who cares about the actual games i don't when i would play madden i'd fantasy draft i'd send the season we'd get to the off season that's right that's the kind of sickos we're talking about here on the same person uh can i watch the games just read the stats no there's no reason there's no reason. There's no reason. Again, going back, Billy Bean, he didn't watch the games. No. Bill's a team, and then he drives away.

That's what he does. That's why he wins. That's what we're doing here. Connor, I haven't talked to you since the holidays. How are you, my friend? I'm good, dude. Everything's great. Did you have eggnog?

I did. I had the rare, well, not rare, but for me, I had whiskey eggnog. Wait, what'd you have before when your dad handed it to you before they started the rant like you know how dads are dads like gotta make everything themselves so and i respect his game my dad had eggnog and then he made his own concoction with rum okay this year i just bought at the liquor store the whole pre-made, like put together eggnog and whiskey. Because it was like, you know, you're out, you're tired of stopping at 95 places. My wife's been to the supermarket 700 times.

I have no interest in going there. So I'm like, oh, I'll just grab that. It was great. It was delicious. It was lovely, man. How was your downtime? Hopefully some downtime. No, mine was great.

I didn't have eggnog. That's why it was great. I made sure to send you the picture. And you told me that I think your family's starting to bully you a little bit about this. Yeah. So, again, I said that, one, I said this to my fiance when we got off of the show. I was like, Connor likes eggnog. And my fiance, Alyssa, was just like, oh, that's gross.

That's the natural reaction and I was like but the weird thing is is I'm getting bullied online for thinking it's gross I got so we have so many more comments of the show last week talking about people who love eggnog than people who actually agree with me and my fiancee who said I thought that that was a universal take and then I go to my parents house for Christmas and I'm talking about eggnog and my dad's like oh eggnog is the greatest thing ever my mom's like oh eggnog is the greatest thing ever who raised me yeah wolves no honestly great people you are you're the outlier here and i'm gonna be honest with you gotta get a dna test very shortly ago i was you and then i had an awakening don't

talk to me don't talk to me i had an awakening try things't talk to me. Don't talk to me. I had an awakening. Try things. I was genuinely one of those kids that like, I didn't want to try anything. Anything. Seafood. Like I had no interest in. Now I'm the adult that there's not a lot of food groups or drinks and things that like I haven't tried or won't try.

I even, the last thing for me was sushi. And now i eat sushi oh brother because raw fish i was like and i like seafood a lot but raw fish i was like asking it now i'm like oh i am mowing down sushi we will get into the actual topic of this show i promise but really quick uh so i was in hawaii because i have a friend who lives over there brag um and you got a fiance you got a friend in hawaii you almost have the trifecta of my wife earlier sick wife brag yeah so i'm over and you know how like grocery stores over here you go into the deli you get some sandwiches right

public's very known for this the public subs all that kinds of good stuff when you go over to hawaii it's poke bowls and sushi. That's what they're like. They have delis as well, but like I would go into Foodland, the greatest grocery store in the world, and I would get a fresh poke bowl because I absolutely love sushi. You talking about it and saying like, oh, now I'm a sushi guy. I agree with you there. This is a strong sushi podcast. So shout out to Foodland, the grocery store in Hawaii.

We're going to do a lot of things here on this show. A lot. We're going to go through a ton of different scenarios. We have the tools. We have the technology to be able to set up week 18. We're going to go through the draft order as it stands today before we get to week 18. But then we have the power to go through every single game, every single result, set up the strength of schedule tiebreakers the way that we need to, and then also toggle with the win-loss. So we don't have to say like, well, what happens if this team would, we're going to be able to put it right in front of you.

And we're going to give you a tangible examples of sort of how the final draft order can shake out. And of course, when we get to that point at the end of the show, we're going to talk about what it means. The quarterback conversations, you know, Cam Ward, ward shadur sanders where do those guys get drafted are these teams going to be desperate to move up do we see some trade back scenarios all that good stuff so we're going to get into a ton of different stuff because like i said we could not wait a full week to get to it but connor if you're ready i'll pull up the uh i'll pull up the

playoff predictor right now we can get into this bad boy yeah let's jump into it because there's a lot of different scenarios at hand here uh depending if you're rooting for your team to lose and move up in the draft order if you're terrified of the idea of your team winning and then of course you know some people still listening that their team have playoff hopes on the line or they're in the playoffs but are we gonna rest guys are we not gonna rest guys right the whole goal of today's show is to try to predict the very unpredictable week 18 to nail down what we're going to be looking at when we do our first mock draft with the official order. So this is playoffpredictor.com. I will not gatekeep this website. I think it's fantastic. And honestly, I feel like I don't hear people talking about it or using it enough. It's the website that

we have used here on this channel before. We used it for the PFF NFL show when we were going through our predictions of what was going to happen during the season. And it also can keep tabs on what the NFL draft is like. So I have this screen very zoomed in. So when you go to playoffpredictor.com, it's going to look a little bit different, but I'm doing this just so you guys can read it a little bit better. This is the current draft order the way that it is, and if I scroll all the way up to the top, basically what it allows you to do is go through every single week of the season,

and you can input the results, and it will sort of spit out for you who's going to win each division, what the seeding is going to be, all of that good stuff. And so we're picking up right now. We're not starting at the beginning of the season. Obviously we're picking up at week 18. Now I went back, we're recording the show Monday afternoon just for full transparency. So I went back to week 17 and I put in the Detroit lions winning against the San Francisco 49ers.

Cause I think that's, what's going to happen. So with that being the case, that brings us up to week 18 and where we currently stand. Now, let's talk about the draft order, where it currently sits. Talk about a little bit of what happened in week 17. The Patriots now have the number one overall pick in the draft thanks to the New York Giants beating the Indianapolis Colts. Which sparked this whole episode, by the way. It really did.

And holy cow, we already did the fixture franchise for the Indianapolis Colts. Which sparked this whole episode, by the way. It really did. And holy cow, like, we already did the fixture franchise for the Indianapolis Colts. I almost wish we could do it again. Because that showing from the Colts was horrendous. I mean, talk about an undisciplined, unmotivated, unfocused team that with everything on the line, they were still on the hunt for the playoffs. With everything on the line,

put out about the worst product that they possibly could have put forth as a team. I mean, heads could roll for what we saw this past week. With what they're thinking about going into next season with quarterback, even putting Shane Steichen on the line what could happen with Chris Ballard I mean that is about as that is about as revealing of poor culture as it gets that game so we're obviously going to talk about the Giants side of things but holy cow I mean the whole reason we're here is the Giants winning that game and a big reason because of that is because of how poor of a showing the Colts had this past week.

That was crazy. I don't know if you have any takes on the Giants, the Colts, or anything. But, man, that was bad. It was insane. I mean, the Colts' defense was not competitive in that game. Drew Locke, if the game just kept going, like say you gave him another four quarters, Drew Locke could throw for 10 touchdowns. And Malik Navers is just setting single-game records.

It was that kind of effort and lack of game planning, and maybe it speaks to the lack of talent, and like you said, maybe there's ramifications beyond the coaching. I mean, it feels like there's obvious ramifications for Gus Bradley in that scenario, but even deeper than that, it was jarring, to say the least. Seven-and-a-half-point favorites, and they couldn't stop a nosebleed. Bradley in that scenario, but even deeper than that, it was jarring to say the least. Seven and a half point favorites and they couldn't stop a nosebleed.

No. 14 missed tackles. Just, we're not interested in playing football the way that you need to. Dude, I mean, I don't want to get too far into it, but the Amir Smith-Marset kick return for a touchdown. He ran in a straight line. He just ran in a straight line. Like Forrest Gump style. I was running. he ran in a straight line it's like he just he just ran in a straight line like for like forrest gump style i was running like that's literally what it was just through the tunnel out of the

stadium crazy uh anyways patriots are picking number one overall because of that titans losing to the jags this past week um they have the number two pick as it stands today cleveland browns at number three the aforementioned giants number four the Browns at number three. The aforementioned Giants at number four. The Jags still even with the win. They're at number five. Panthers at six. Your New York Jets at number seven. Las Vegas Raiders with their win over the Saints.

They're at number eight. The Bears at number nine. And the Saints are there at 10. So we'll really focus on these teams in the top 10. Obviously, when we sort of create what could be the final draft order, we'll talk about some other teams that might be a little bit further out that are out of the top 10 or maybe jump into it but I'll sort of go to you here where do you want to sort of talk start to to talk about things we can naturally talk about it as we get into the game predictions but I know you had some notes

that you had written down about odds for any of these teams to get the number one overall pick still especially the ones that are picking in the top five or the top four but I'll give you dealer's choice to where we're kind of going next here with this conversation well I think to me the three teams that have a shot at the number one pick that are playing backups are the most interesting right because the browns are the one team out of the four that have three wins that they're playing the ravens who are not only a wagon but the ravens are playing for something so and especially if they start dtr like if they were starting jamis you can run a couple simulations and you're like oh man like jamis just kind of chucked it around the yard

and they won today. With DTR, it's not that kind of volume of pass effectiveness or variance. The Browns, they have an 18% chance per the athletics model of having the first overall pick. I mean, the

Browns, they are most likely going to lose. They're going to be more than double touchdown favorites. They're going to be probably 17.5-point underdogs in this. The other three teams, though, it becomes really interesting, right? Because the Patriots, who have the highest chance to pick number one per the athletic, 53% chance. I know this isn't always the Bills' way, but they have to be playing Bills' backups for most of the game, right? I mean, maybe Josh Allen of the game right I mean maybe Josh Allen starts the game to keep the Ironman streak going but in theory that's a Mitch Trubisky

game and the Bills are getting rest the Titans who have a 26% 26% chance to pick number one they're playing the Texans backups and then the Giants who now have a 3% chance to pick number one, which is unbelievable. They had a 63% chance a week ago. Damn. Yeah. Damn. Yeah, I know. Insanity. The Giants need all three teams above them to win,

so they would need that massive Browns upset. They're most likely playing the Eagles backups, and Jalen Hurts has already been hurt for a couple weeks. Right. massive Browns upset, they're most likely playing the Eagles backups. And Jalen Hurts has already been hurt for a couple of weeks. So, right. Like who's to say the giants can't pull off another win in that scenario this week, the results of this week,

like the Raiders winning. And I understand it was sort of against a bad saints team. So it's not like that one's like totally crazy, but, but it mattered a lot though. You didn't, but like, right.

The Raiders, the Raiders winning, the raiders winning the jags winning the giants winning like those three teams winning basically put us in a week 18 scenario where i mean you got the jets and the panthers that could be vaulted up into like the top four I don't know I don't off the top of my head I don't know if that's possible we'll obviously get into it because we'll mess around with things but like it felt like last week that was not going to be possible and now it is because of those three teams winning it is because the Jets have a high enough strength of schedule that they could easily be they could very feasibly be picking in the top five now the the panthers are another team they're playing the bucks who are playing a win so that like in theory you're expecting a panthers loss crazier things have happened no no

no uh the panthers just played the bucks or you say the bucks yeah they just they just played the bucks and let the bucks play the saints so the Saints are another team that's probably going to get a lot. That's what I was mixing up. Yeah. Yes. They are. The Saints are, even though they have five wins instead of that giant group from three to four, the Saints are very likely to lose.

So the Saints could bump up a spot or two, depending on, you know, I mean, obviously they're expected to get blown out, but they have a very high chance of picking 10th, but they could pick 9th or 8th. And then, yeah, you have these scenarios all over the place. Like the Raiders are really interesting to me, Trevor, because they play the Chargers week 18. Yeah. So keep in mind, if the Steelers beat the Bengals,

and that is before the Chargers play, the Chargers would have nothing to play for. So then the Raiders, who are at least playing very hard down the stretch, maybe that's much to the chagrin of their fan base right now, they'd be playing backups. So there's a world where the Raiders win five games, and they're picking, when you factor in strength of schedule, they'd be picking probably like 9th or 10th. Yeah, something like that, factor in strength of schedule they'd be picking probably

like ninth or tenth yeah something like that because they're trying to schedule is wild when you look at this Raiders team right right well it felt like it was kind of the same with the Raiders last year right absolute dumpster fire last year they go to um uh they go to Antonio Pierce's as the interim head coach and they actually finish like respectably right and they end up picking out of the range of basically any quarterback and i don't know if that's going to be the case here in this draft because we don't know exactly what's going to happen with quarterback play but i think that sort of brings up the conversation of who before before we dig into sort of the schedule here who needs needs to lose the most, right?

Because we've talked about New England. Well, and I agree, but before we dig into that, just we have talked about this draft being different, right? It's not like Caleb Williams and Jaden Daniels and Drake Mayer at the very top. It is a different draft, but I still think that there are good players here in this draft. You have Travis Hunter. You have the two quarterbacks, which we can have that conversation as we here in this draft. You have Travis Hunter. You have the two quarterbacks, which we can have that conversation as we go throughout this exercise. You have Tetsuro McMillan. You got Mason Graham.

You have good offensive tackles. I don't think either of the offensive tackles are going to go at number one overall. You have Abdul Carter, who's playing well. If he continues to play well throughout the college football playoff, maybe he gets some buzz in that category of being one of the top picks,

maybe the top pick in the draft, depending on how the quarterbacks are looked at. But I do agree with you that I think the Patriots need the number one overall pick more than anybody because I think they need to trade it. That's my exact take. I think this is the worst roster in the NFL. Not close in my opinion. And I don't think that Gerard Mayo has done the best job as a coach,

but it's hard to really put a lot on him because of how poor this roster is. Yeah. In my opinion. I would move on from him, but I don't think they will. So I don't hate. How do I say this i would hate the process of moving on from him i understand what you're saying you know like you groom this guy to be the head coach bill turned the roster into dog shit you hand it over to mayo okay so his first year as a head coach just like it would be a rookie year for any player.

Okay. It's a big learning year for him. Now you're going to can him after this. Cause you have the worst roster in the NFL and he didn't magically turn it into chicken salad. I don't think craft will do that. So it's hard for me to agree with the process, but at the same time,

the Jeremy Foley quote that i love who is the former athletic director of the university of florida says that um what should be done eventually should be done immediately or i think i'm paraphrasing that like what what should be done eventually must be done immediately i now i'm messing up the quote that's what he said but it's basically like that's that's what we're going with here. If you know that you're going to have to do something eventually, just do it now. Get it over with.

Make the change. And he obviously talked about like that's the quote of making decisions for an athletic department. Coaching is a big part of that. So that's where I'm sort of at with the Patriots. But this roster is terrible and i think that they it uh it benefits the new england patriots quite a bit that one of the giants the raiders the jets i suppose aren't picking in the top three, but they are picking in the top eight

because you can go back quite a few spots here and you can still convince them, even in a down-drafted year, to give them, somebody to give you multiple first-round picks for you to still pick in the top eight. You get multiple first-round picks and you're not really worried about who you're giving up at number one overall. That's how I feel about the Patriots. Yeah, you want assets to fill out a roster that's bare boned.

And the question is, if I was New England in this situation, I would still want to come away with the best player in the draft, which is Travis Hunter. But I think it's one of those scenarios where you can kind of get the best of both worlds. Say the order is close to where it is now, the top four, where the Titans are right behind you. We think they want a quarterback. I mean, I want to be honest, folks. These scouting departments can go through this class and be like,

hey, we don't like the quarterbacks, and that's that. But we're going to pretend that the teams that have openings at quarterback right now will be interested in drafting one of Cam Ward or Shader Sanders. Sam Darnold's not hitting the market, folks. I mean, that's a pipe dream that is so far gone. He's not hitting the market. Like, what kind of guy has this season

and the team goes, you know what? Thanks for all, but we're going to see what J.J. McCarthy has nope no get the out of here so yeah no no yeah and you know what they can keep both honestly because they're not paying JJ anything right now if that's the world they want to go to but the point is yeah get the Sam Darnold dream uh you know out probably it seems it was a great idea once upon a time guys he's played so well they can't let him out the door

so if you're the Patriots you have a world where you can flip down to say two or three right Tennessee or Cleveland or if the Giants were in one of those spots you think you have the intel that they're going to take quarterback quarterback one and two if you think that and then you get Travis Hunter and you got more assets. So that's the beauty of it for New England. I suppose, you know, what I was talking before is, is I don't know in this draft, you know, if you can flip with the Cleveland Browns or the Tennessee Titans,

like if the draft were to be this weekend, if you will. I don't know if you could flip with one of those two teams or even, you know, if we somehow end up with the giants or whatever, and you're, you're moving down a couple of spots. I don't know if you get like a next year's first because I don't think that. Yeah, I agree. But,

but if you're okay with not getting Travis Hunter and the Raiders are picking number eight, the giants are picking number four or like the jets are picking number four. Or like the Jets are picking number seven. And you're the Patriots. Now the Patriots probably aren't going to call the Jets because they're not going to want to give them the quarterback. But if you call the Raiders, for example, or let's just say the Giants are picking

six or seven. You call the Giants and you say we'll go from one to six. All of a sudden, that's a big enough jump to say you've got to give us next year's first yeah number two and number three i don't think are i agree so the patriots sort of how we started this conversation this might actually be best case scenario for them all around because not only are they now picking number one overall the teams that would want to get to one to take a quarterback if that is tempting for

them to do are picking further back so you might actually be able to get multiple first round assets for a move like that and in this draft class as long as you're okay with not taking travis hunter you still get a good football player at seven six eight and that's sort of the way that i so i think that i think it is i agree with it this is the biggest the the patriots getting number one overall is the most important team to get the top pick outside of the two teams that need a quarterback that no longer have a shot to be able to do that right and the patriots are a team in a unique circum not unique for a team picking at the top, but I think it's a little unique how many needs they have.

Like you could sit and look at New England's roster and be like, God, it feels like they need 60% of an offensive line. They need an alpha wide receiver. They need pass rushers. They could always use another corner across from Christian Gonzalez. I don't think that's the route they're going to go because I think they have more premium needs than that. But where your point, Trevor, is you're getting a more premium asset

and you're moving to eight in this scenario because you're going, well, we're checking a pretty big box anyway. Yeah, we'd love Travis Hunter because we could play him both ways and we need help there. But we feel like we need to prioritize keeping Drake May upright. So we'll get, we believe a Kelvin Banks will be there at eight in this scenario that we've run out and we got the better asset anyway.

And that's a plan that you can not only sell your fan base on, but you're also, it's a, it's a real plan. Like it's a feasible, realistic plan. A percent chance that Aaron Rogers is on the jetsets next year do you have one one percent I think that's I okay so you would say he's not going to be okay all right I agree with you and so I think

that that puts the Jets we've sort of been on the fence about quarterback we've sort of explored options when we've done mock drafts with them prioritizing quarterbacks, whether it's been here in the first round, top of the second round, whatever. But especially with Sam Darnold, obviously not coming back to New York and also not being available, I think the Jets are absolutely one of those teams

that could very well be desperate to move up for a quarterback next year because I don't think Rodgers is going to be there. Maybe. The thing I'll say with that is they have a little bit of a luxury that some of the teams around them don't, where they don't have the head coach and GM yet. Those guys are going to have more security than a lot of the teams around them.

Now, this could change. The Giants are a wild card. Like, if the Giants keep Joe Shane, he has to take a quarterback. He has to. There's no... No, it's a good point. It's a great point. The Browns, with this Deshaun Watson nightmare, need to sell hope to the fan base with this regime.

Tennessee, at some point, they have to take a first-round quarterback. And I'm not saying the jets shouldn't look into this but if you're the jets like yeah the fan base is probably really frustrated but if you're a new gm and head coach you go man we just got here like we're paying tyrod taylor next year we think jordan travis is going to be healthy we need another body that's not a great room let me be honest like tyrod jordan travis and someone else right but are you going to give up your whole future for a quarterback class that you might not even love so yeah i i think is there a world where they explore it sure are they as desperate as the other teams around them that like those guys could be fired if they get this wrong

that's where it's a little different i literally just thought of a scenario off the top of my head if they get this wrong, that's where it's a little different. I literally just thought of a scenario off the top of my head that is so diabolical that it would never work. But I'm going to say it here on the show anyways because we have the platform to do so. What if the Browns got the number one overall pick and traded the number one overall pick along with Deshaun Watson to a team

to take on a massive part of his salary and then also gave away the number one overall pick to be able to do that? So the Browns could cleanly move on from Deshaun Watson. I don't know what his... All right, let's look it up. Deshaun Watson contract. It's a lot of money.

It's like 90-something million over the next two years yeah hey we're just working it out we're just working it out you know we're just yes that's all we're doing here we're working it out uh where is this come on where is uh uh over the cap i want to see okay if he gets traded pre-june 1st that's 170 107 of dead money i actually don't know how this works out oh i know how it works out they're stuck with them and it's gonna cost them a lot of money no no i know i know i know for a terrible player but that's but that's what I'm saying.

Like, you could have the opportunity. And I don't know, I don't think this would ever happen. I just want to make that clear. But in my galaxy brain moment there, when I'm looking at this list and I'm saying, teams that could desperately need the number one overall pick, if the Browns said, we will trade you number one overall and Deshaun Watson to some team and basically just say to them, need the number one overall pick if the brown said we will trade you number one overall and

deshaun watson to some team and basically just say to them you've got to take a massive part of his contract because then obviously we will take some too gets a little bit easier if you could designate the trade to a post june one trade just saying man did you say it it's it's it's it's crazy it would never happen i just felt like sharing it with the world it's more of an nba style thing yes yes 100 it's just a salary dump it's a salary dump trade at a magnitude that was once thought as unimaginable and yet here I went imagining it. Because NFL contracts aren't supposed to be structured this way. And then, and then, you trade Miles Garrett to a different team

for two first round picks. So you come away in this draft with a first round pick, an extra first round pick the year after. You're committed to a total rebuild. You don't have Miles Garrett, but you also don't have the sean watson i did it or let's we could we could this though no i cooked no i cooked or you could just keep miles garrett and draft travis hunter and have two awesome football players and then the sean watson still you can't even build the team. You know Kirk Cousins is their starting quarterback next year.

Don't kid yourself. With what money, though? He's getting the Russell Wilson treatment. Oh, you think he's going to sign for... Nah, dude. Yes, he's got all his money. Nobody's paying him. You think he's going to do that?

Yes, he's going to go be with Stefanski for for 2.5 million dollars and that's it hope you guys enjoyed that uh galaxy brain brain segment brought to you by me playing Madden a lot as a kid too much as a kid maybe my mom was right no it's how we got here should have touched it all it all worked out is there any other conversations here that you want to have with these teams like who might be desperate to get number one obviously the giants would be desperate to get up to number one to get a quarterback um we'll sort of work through how that could happen but seems very unlikely now jags would obviously it would be great for them same reason as the patriots to get the number one

um but that's sort of that same conversation there panthers maybe the same but i don't think they're getting up to one and then the other ones are just trading up anything else you want to hit before we get into the schedule breakdown of this i guess this is the schedule breakdown but is is there a world where the jags because the colts are so sorry right now the jags beat them yes brian thomas jr goes for like 140 and two touchdowns and the jags somehow win their fifth game legacy game brother we're gonna get into it we're gonna i'm ready i'm ready all right before Brian Thomas Jr. goes for like 140 and two touchdowns, and the Jags somehow win their fifth game. Legacy game, brother. We're going to get into it.

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All right, let's get into it. That is M-E-A-T. Fabric. No, no. Teams are trading for when they trade for miles garrett this off season let's rock and roll okay so in order to do this properly so i'll scroll back down here you guys can see this is the draft order so as we make our picks on which teams are going to win in week 18 for example if i pick the new england patriots to win in week 18. For example, if I pick the New England Patriots to win, then if I scroll back down, boom, here we have them.

Now they're no longer picking number one. They're picking number four. If something like that were to happen, the strength of schedule changes, which is the number one tiebreaker when it comes to NFL draft picks. I think a lot of people think that it's head to head. It's not.

It's strength of schedule because as we've said before, but we'll say it again, the lower your strength of schedule is, if you are tied with another team, well, that means that you are picking higher because that means you will have the same bad record against worse teams you played. See? Very easy to follow. Well put, my friend.

A lot of people struggle with that one. Yeah, well. That's why you come here for the real teaching. Listen, I just had to get that Browns thought out of my friend, a lot of people struggle with that one. Yeah, well. That's why you come here for the real teaching. Listen, I just had to get that Browns thought out of my head, and now it's just, I'm Einstein. I'm just, I'm seeing colors. I'm in the future. Basically, the movie Tenet is going on right here.

Oh, God. Please don't. All right, Chargers Raiders. So you said this one has implications on uh who's got to win what's it so the chargers have nothing to play for if the steelers beat the bangles i think the bangles beat the steelers me too but i don't so i have all the lines up in front of me that are very fluid based on scenarios all right the Bengals are a point and a half favorite against the Steelers.

On the road. Yes. Yes. Yes, they are at Pittsburgh. Not an easy place to play. Right. But I'm saying that they're favorites on the road. Yeah.

So that shows you what Vegas thinks of where the Bengals are versus where the Steelers are. Especially with the Steelers coming off extra rest. Right. So I would agree with you. We'd go Bengals here. So then that would mean the Chargers have to play for something or they don't. They technically would be.

This is where it gets a little convoluted. I will explain this in one second. I just want to make sure I have my facts right here. And friend of the show daniel popper who covers the chargers got it daniel yeah he's he's been on the show awesome dude he he covered this well so if the steelers lose the chargers can get the five seed with a win which if i mean if you know hardball dude like do you think Harbaugh's going to be like, oh, I don't care what we say. He's going to play to win and try to get the five seed.

I agree. So I would say that, yes, the Chargers would be playing to win against a Raiders team that right now, and once again, this is the most, if you are betting this week, folks, this is the most fluid. It's fun, but it's very dangerous because the lines can move based on scenarios that are based on how much starters play so what he's saying is take out the short-term loan and dump it all on chargers minus five and a half

but the chargers are favored right now by five and a half points trevor because clearly the markets feel how you feel starters that the Chargers will be playing for the fifth seed. So I'm going to say that the Chargers win this game. Okay. Chiefs-Broncos, which is a big one. Huge. I actually don't know the time. Have they released all the times for these games?

Yes, this is a 425 game. Okay. When is Dolphins-Jets? One? No. I actually don't know the time. Have they released all the times for these games? Yes, this is a 4-25 game. Okay. When is Dolphins-Jets? One? No, four. 25. Oh.

Is Bengals-Steelers one? Yes. Okay. No, it's 8 p.m. Saturday. Okay, well, that's fine. It's the same thing. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But it's still even more interesting yeah you get to go to sleep knowing what the next day brings yeah

all right well i think the bengals win so the broncos are playing the chiefs backups the broncos are favored by 10 points i know i'm surprised, too. I'm not going to lie. I think that's actually a little rich. What is it? Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo taking the week off? Are their backups playing?

Right. Backups coaching? Yeah, they think that the Chiefs are laying down, is what they're telling you. And the Broncos obviously are playing for everything. I'm going to say the Broncos win. Yeah, well, they are minus 520 on the money line, so this would be not a historic upset, but a colossal one.

That would be a massive upset. All right, so the Broncos are winning that one. The Texans cannot move, right? They're locked in. The Texans have nothing to play for. Okay, they're already shaky even with nothing to play for. With, like, the starters. They're shaky even with the starters in there is what i'm trying to say i agree what's the line on this game the texans are underdogs by one point so it's almost a pick okay i mean essentially it's a

pick because of the erratic quarterback play wait who's the backup quarterback for the davis mills feels like he's been the backup quarterback for the texans for 10 years am i crazy to say the texans win this game no you're not i mean it's a pick them so you're not crazy either way i i don't i if i had to pick a side and this is a game I would never bet in my life, I would take Tennessee. All right, let's do Tennessee. Tennessee still has starters playing. Okay, all right.

That's why they're a point favorite, which means nothing almost. All right, so we'll take the Titans in this one. Again, guys, at the end of the show, or sorry, middle of the show, whatever it is, whatever it ends up being, we'll toggle some wins and losses to see what the draft order could be. So we'll have the Titans winning this one in a pick-em. The Colts are hosting the Jags. We already kind of talked about this one. The Colts are reeling right now.

They're favored by five points. I think the Colts win this game, though. Yeah, so does Vegas. Okay, I think that they win this game. Browns, Ravens. Ravens have something to play for? They have everything to play for. They have everything to play for.

The division. So they're going to... You want to guess what the line is? Wait a second. Do they have to win no matter what? Because the Steelers played the night before. Yeah, but the Ravens would be playing for the division, I think, in that scenario.

There's no Saturday that changes what they do. Okay. I don't think. Because what's the standings right now? The Ravens are 11-5. The Steelers are 10-6. Maybe things... No, no, no, no, no, no sorry I'm I'm leaving out the most

important part here the Ravens play before the Steelers so the Ravens are playing that's why I was saying the Ravens are playing for everything no matter what when they play Saturday at 4 30 they're the first game okay yeah so I'm like I know they're playing for everything no matter what it's like oh because duh they play before everyone else in a standalone time. Okay, all right. So the Ravens have everything to play for. They're going to win the football game. 18-point favorites. One of the biggest lines of the year.

Oh, man. All they have to do is beat them. They don't have to just embarrass them. Yeah, come on, Vegas. MVP race? You never know. I will lay $5 on the money line for the Browns in this game. Me too.

Like, just say, Jameis ends up in there. What's the money line? What is it? It is 10 to 1, plus 1,000 for the Browns. Nice. Love that. Love that. Okay.

Bills and Patriots. Bills playing their backups? Yeah, so while we were recording, it has been confirmed Josh Allen's going to go out there bills and Patriots bills playing their backups. Yeah. So while we were recording, it has been confirmed. Josh Allen's going to go out there to be the starter and come out of the game right away. Okay.

Bills are favored by two and a half points. I'm still, I still think the bills win. I still, Gerard Mayo's got a lot to play for here. Um, yeah, I still, do you disagree with me a lot to play for here. Yeah, I still... Do you disagree with me?

I think the Bills win. No, I think the Bills win. I think the Patriots are a disaster. But I think it's... I actually would price this game at a pick instead of two and a half points. So I would actually be probably taking New England's two and a half points.

Although, once again, I don't... I'm not going to be doing a lot of wagering in Week 18. I'm going to be putting my mortgage on the line and dolphins and jets i'll leave this one up to you what do you think dolphins are playing for everything jets are playing for nothing at this point they don't even play for themselves they just go out there and jump around and have 16 penalties for 8 000 yards yeah but does tie rod start because that uh that changes things so roger still hasn't gotten the 500 touchdown if he had gotten it this would have been a tie rod game no i you're right though i know that dolphins win then so here's the the problem with this game

it's all the dolphins are only a point favorite it's basically a pick right now because the reports around tua are not very optimistic right now. Yeah, but Snoop looked good. He looked fine. I would not classify it as good. Dude, he was the second coming of Peyton Manning. Snoop is the new Sam Darnold. After the game, he said, I've literally never heard of Tom Brady.

He doesn't have shit on me. Yeah, if Tyrod was in this game, this could be like an F around and find out game, but no, not as it stands right now. Okay. All right, I'm going with the Dolphins. Yeah. The Seahawks coming off extra rest against the Rams. Rams have nothing to play for, right?

Well, they've already won the division, so they're in. Right. Can they move up? No. I think the Rams rams are locked yeah yeah the rams are locked so they're not gonna play anybody i'm gonna take the seahawks i'm gonna take the seahawks yeah the seahawks are the seahawks are favored by three points by the way on the road okay we're taking the seahawks here so okay so the only way this would change. Yeah. No, it really doesn't.

It doesn't matter. The Bucs would have to lose the Seahawks. I don't really think much will change. I think the Rams will be resting everybody. That's why Seattle's favored. The Bucs would have to lose. The Falcons would have to win. The Falcons win the division and

then the rams get bumped up if they win it's like very chaotic along the lines of that okay i'm just gonna say seattle wins the niners and the cardinals it's a pick i think nothing happened here doesn't sure i'm Sure. I'm going to say the Niners. I'll say, yeah, I'll say the Niners. Packers and Bears. Hardest game of the week. Because, and I've done a lot of research on this scenario and nobody knows. Okay. Packers are playing the Bears.

Correct. The Packers are the biggest wild card of the week. They could rest their starters entirely. They could play their starters for a half because they haven't been playing well. Or they could play for the win. Seating is not locked for Green Bay right now. So I'm sure a lot of this will depend

on how things shake out around. Who do they pass? What's the standings playoff seating? I think it's, it's just based on a lot of different scenarios in the games around them. So they are. Okay. So here's what it is.

They are right now, the seventh seed, which travels the Philly, which nobody wants that, right? Like that's no way, right? Nobody wants to touch that.

Right. Washington is the sixth seed at 11 and five. Uh-huh. The commanders, they play somebody weak. Don't they play? Oh, they play the Cowboys. The Cowboys? Yeah.

So the commanders play the Cowboys. So the commanders are four point favorites. This is a Sunday one o'clock game. The Packers play before this i want to say where are the packers i want to make sure i have this right the packers play at sunday at one o'clock so they basically they go into this not knowing the seating so they have to just they just have to make a decision because if they get the six, who do they play?

The right now that that is. Yeah. The Rams commanders are the six. The Rams are the third. I mean, think about it. You want to play at Philadelphia in January. You want to go indoor to LA to play the Rams.

Yeah. I mean, you'd rather play the Rams. All right. I'm going to say the Packers win this game. I'm going to say Washington wins their game. If I had a lean, I would lean that the Packers play to win the game.

Yeah, I agree. So I'm going to go Packers, Washington, Bucks. Oh, baby. Best game of the year, maybe. Lions are two and a half point favorites sunday night football dude which they're which they're at home so that's essentially a pickup game yeah they're they're they're telling you that they think the lions are about a half point better right which i don't know i'll just i'm just gonna pick the lions um i think the Panthers win this game.

And the Eagles are resting all of their starters, right? Yes. Yes. I think the Eagles win anyways. There is Saquon record talk, but they don't think they'll put that above the goal of the Super Bowl. I think the Eagles win anyways. I'm not going to lie to you.

I don't know, dude. Drew Locke's on fire. Because here's the thing. They'm not going to lie to you. I don't know, dude. Drew Locke's on fire. Because here's the thing. They're not going to rest like everyone. You can't do that in the NFL. Right. You can't do that. Some of the starters have to play.

So they're not going to rest everyone. Kenny Pickett looked fine outside of the crazy weird throw. Well, Tanner McKee had to come in, though. And Tanner McKe looked like the goat so because he is right and i'm i'm not trying to take anything away from giants fans the colts were the reason why that game was the way that it was drew lock had one big time throw in that game he played well i again i don't want to sound like a hater i really don't i know a lot of giants fans listening to this podcast i are not trying to be a hater.

Malik Nabors had 171 yards in this game. 103 came after the catch. The Colts had 14 missed tackles in this game. Drew Locke completed less than 45% of his total passing yards were in the air. The rest of them were just after the catch. And the Colts were just terrible. So, I kind of think the Eagles win. Giants are three-point underdogs, so Vegas agrees with you.

Yeah, all right. If I'm the Eagles in this game for comedy, I'm putting Ian Book out there. I'm putting Ian Book out there i'm putting in book out there who cares let the giants pick i don't know eighth come on it's hilarious who's the guy in uh oh this is so disrespectful the in book uh who's the guy in the longest yard who's the guy in the longest yard? Who's the guy in the longest yard who is like, hey, why can't I play quarterback? And Adam Sandler's like, all right, here, show me. And then he just fires it like 80 yards over his head, and he's like, that's why, sit down.

Oh, man. I can't remember his name. Are you a OG longest yard guy or the Adam Sandler one? I've never seen the OG one. Oh, man. I've never seen the og one oh man i've never seen it so the og one is it's a little bit more uh is it a little more serious it's a little bit more gritty like burt reynolds is like he's a real outlaw okay i don't it's i'm an og but i they're both very good i've watched the new version of the longest yard a

billion times which is old now like that's how old we are oh oh yeah i thought you're saying that there was a new version out i was like i'm sure what is timothy chalamet in that one too oh god dude timothy chalamet is what adam sandler was he's playing michael ervin's character he's playing michael ervin's character oh dude who okay who would be who would be that character if there was a second remake what do you say adam sandler's funny but he wasn't like good casting for that based on like who you would believe can be a and a prison yard football player like what actor today? I don't know.

Shane Gillis would be in the movie though. Yeah. I don't know what, I don't know what he would be. Leave in the comments below the casting for Trevor and I's the longest yard three. This is actually a great question. Who would be Adam Sandler?

If they did another version of the longest yard today because do you want them to be funny or do you want them to be Burt Reynolds where you're like this is the baddest dude walking right now and the answer is not Timothy shall they all due respect all due respect man now I'm gonna be thinking about this all day i'm gonna be firing off it's kind of shocking matthew mcconaughey didn't find a way to do this matthew mcconaughey would be burt reynolds character in he'd be the coach yes exactly you know he's the old throwback now yes yes yes or he'd be the warden just the just the total opposite yeah that'd be a good role for him he could slick

the hair back you know what i'm saying yeah oh yeah i mean he's mr texas now that's true all right now now all right we we need to we need to hear from the people let us know uh who is playing just fill out the cast fill out however much of the cast you want the longest yard i'm gonna do that myself in the comments once i have a little bit more time to think about it because this is actually brilliant okay workshop this so uh yeah we're in beta um so this is the schedule for week 18 and these are the wins and losses that we think are going to happen so now oh I was about to say drum roll please but this is actually a really good spot to ask the good people have you played pick six from draftraftKings yet? If not, what are you waiting for?

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And in fact, like Connor said, you've got an opportunity to really get in on some player lines for more or less stats that are going to be juicy. You're going to be able to hit some easy ones. I don't know what the easy ones are, but they're going to be out there. And if you think you know what the easy ones are,

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including New York and Ontario. Void where prohibited. One per new customer new customer bonuses awarded as non-withdrawable pick six credits they expire in 30 days limited time offer see terms at pick six dot draft kings dot com slash promos have that for a cliffhanger that i didn't think of until i forgot phenomenal had to read an ad all All right, here it is. The draft order. Patriots picking number one overall. Browns picking number two. Giants back up to number three.

Jags at four. Jets at five. Titans, who we had winning their game, all the way down at number six. The Raiders at seven. The Bears at eight. Panthers at nine. Saints at 10.

Right outside, we got the Cowboys at 11. Cardinals at 12. 49ers at 13. Colts at 14, Falcons at 15, Dolphins at 16, Bengals at 17, and the Seahawks at 18 for those non-playoff teams. Alright.

Browns pick at number 2 overall, so the Deshaun Watson trade scenario still stands. Could still potentially do it. Let's see. Do you want to change anything? Now that we have that order there, do you want to see, like, if the Titans lose?

Let's see. All right, so if the Titans lose, what does it turn into? So the Titans just, they go all the way from six to two if they lose. So this is a giant game for the Titans organization. Yes. Yes. Like, you cannot get cued against Davis Mills.

Yeah. I think that they win, though. I'm nervous, and I'm not even a Titans fan. I know. There's so much on the line here. You can't win this game. Let's say, all right, hold on. Let's say that the Raiders win against the Chargers.

Because the Steelers beat the Bengals. That's why that would happen. Because the Steelers beat the Bengals. What do we got here if that's the case? Where's the Raiders? Oh, the Raiders are picking over 10. That's tough. That's tough. That's tough.

It's not good. Didn't really change anything up here. I don't think it really changed anything if we switch this either when it comes to strength of schedule. No, Titans would still jump from 6 to 2. All right, we're moving these back, though. Bengals, Titans. What did the Patriots win?

Which could happen. Which could happen. Which could happen. Mitch Trubisky just doesn't get it done. Then the Browns get number one. The Giants would get number two. So this is the chalkiest draft. What do you mean? In theory, right now, your gut feel is that the quarterbacks go in some order of Browns,

Giants, and the Patriots could take Travis Hunter. If they will probably take Hunter. It's the chalkiest draft. I wonder if the Browns are still trading the pick at this point. Maybe because Kirk cousins. Yeah. Cause the Titans, again,

you're in a scenario where Titans are sitting here at six Raiders are sitting here at seven. You'd have the opportunity to trade both of these teams and get multiple first round picks if you wanted yeah yeah you could rebuild the team the way that you need to but man it's gonna get real interesting this offseason man miles garrett said i'm not interested in a rebuild and if this team doesn't show me tangible reasons why i should believe in them. He basically said the words without saying the words. I'm demanding a trade. I won't play for this organization anymore.

And I don't know how the Browns do that. Maybe going to get Kirk Cousins. But what did you see of Kirk Cousins this year that makes you think, oh yeah, Miles Garrett's going to love that. We're good. We're good to go. In the AFC North. Like, Kirk Cousins was in the NFC South,

and he looked like he had a pea shooter. In the AFC North, no. See if the Giants win. I had a jump scare this weekend when they said it was Miles Garrett's 29th birthday. Wait, is that real? Yeah, he just turned 29 this weekend when they said it was miles Garrett's 29th birthday. Wait, is that real? Yeah.

He just turned 29 this weekend. He's only 29. No, I, I had the opposite effect. I was like, miles Garrett's almost 30. Dude.

I had, I have the opposite effect entirely. How long has miles Garrett been doing this? Well, he's had double digit sacks every year besides his rookie season, which is unbelievable. Dude. I thought miles Garrett was like 31 and he was still playing at this prime level.

2017 draft pick. Yeah. Yeah, I guess that you're right because he was a 22 year old rookie. Just because he's been a monster. That's the thing. He's always been career. He has always been good. Like he's just he was never like, I don't know is Miles Garrett going to figure it out?

It was like, oh no, he's good from day one. So I switched the Giants beating the Eagles and that drops them from number three to number seven. Which is obviously very significant for them. See, the Eagles are going to play Ian Book. They're watching this and they're like, oh baby. All right, what did the panthers lose here uh how much did that change thing for the panthers then they go to number five all right it's good

i know panthers fans we haven't talked a ton about the panthers we'll get into them a lot more when we're doing the mock draft episode next week but you know mason graham still very much within play right here love that switching it back though i do think they beat the falcons do the uh rogers throws his 500th touchdown comes out of the game tyrod outplays snoop huntley scenario okay all right okay this is this is my nightmare nine yay lovely he said yay oh man he said yay uh yeah don't you dare that's that's tough that's not good how could we make this even worse for you where's the saints uh the saints well the saints they oh no we already had them losing this is this is the bottom this is the trap door so at least it feels like the worst the jets could do is pick nine after

this season though that's awful what's the best the jets could do though hold on the jets can pick second overall i think all right hold on all right patriots winning Browns winning well yeah Jags winning Titans winning Raiders winning Jets we already have winning Giants gotta lose oh yeah just gotta lose just gotta lose where we at here there it is the Jets have a chance to pick number two overall it'll only take a small miracle that if you have even the slightest inclination that it's gonna happen you better bet ten dollars on it in a parlay right now because you'll retire you'll be watching the jets win in cabo on the beach i have i have to do the jets miracle parlay okay i'm not gonna i don't know if i'm gonna i gotta wager it obviously so okay so the

the jets miracle parlay the browns the browns who are 18 point underdogs money line money line boom money line patriots money line patriots money lines money now these now these the rest of these games are legitimately like almost a pick Panthers money line Titans and Panthers money lines Panthers is not a pick that's plus 350 Jacksonville I think that's it and then the Raiders oh and the Raiders money line so what's the odds five dollar bet gets you what five dollar bet wins you about 19 grand vegas is basically telling you if this happens fine take everything oh man oh man i want to explore some other scenarios how okay these are a bunch of these teams winning okay what if the raiders now we're now we're in a territory of like how high could

teams pick well the rate the highest raiders could pick is five yeah because isn't their strength oh their strength the schedule is brutal yeah it's so hot well this could right now they're tied with the giants so they might be able to flip to four but it's five or four so that's tough yeah it's not great um titans because the titans get one titans can get one titans get one titans have oh yeah you said that they were titans have a 26 chance to pick number one that is the second highest chance damn all right so the titans can pick number one that can happen uh browns we've already established that they can pick number one jets the highest they could pick

is number two patriots obviously at number one because that's where they're at right now what about the panthers how high could the panthers pick number two panthers can get to number two if they lose and then you know if you have the Panthers parlay, you can win yourself 19 grand and watch your team pick Mason Graham at number two overall. What's better than that? What's better than that? Not a whole lot, folks. All right, there we go.

That was the exercise. We worked through it. We figured it out. It's honestly how I want to title this show. We figured out the draft order. That could click well. Could click well. You want to wait till next week for the draft order

or you want to find out now? You choose. That's a great point. I'm not going to choose for it. You choose. I mean, if you don't want to watch it, it's fine. You don't have to know. It doesn't change my day.

It does not change my day. That's the most aggressive way to say that is you just looking at somebody and be like, it won't change my day. It does not change my day. That's the most aggressive way to say that, is you just looking at somebody and be like, it won't change my day. It won't change my day. That's when the argument's gone way too far. When someone keeps repeating that over and over again, you're all like, oh, man, this should stop.

We would love to hear from you guys, where you currently are with your favorite NFL team when it comes to the NFL draft, where you think they're going to pick, who you would love for them to target, how desperately you want them to get to a certain draft position, and why. Tell us what player you want them to go for. And this is the time where you can just let out your frustrations. You can vent. This is safe space. If your team won last week and you're absolutely pissed about it, let it all go. We're here for you.

Best way to do that, YouTube comment section. YouTube.com backslash at NFL Stock Exchange. You can also hit us up on Twitter and Instagram as well, at Tampa Bay Trey, at Connor J. Rogers for your therapeutic sessions. Although you'll probably have more luck finding people who are going through

equal trauma that you are if you get in the YouTube comment section. I'm not going to lie. We would also love to hear who you think is going to play the longest yard remake number three i actually want to hear from people on this because i am going to get in the comments to give you my cast my modern day cast for the longest yard so i would love to hear from those people as well connor anything else before we get out of here yeah it was a ton of fun it was good to change it up i know we're gonna get back to positional previews we've been grinding the tape but it was a good time with all the chaos thank you to drew lock and malik neighbors that we were able to go sort through this yeah we're doing running backs next so later this week we

will get to the early running back episodes and i can already tell you my top 10 is gonna look a lot different than i thought it was going to be the guy at the very the very top all right not gonna change but basically after that there's a lot of really fun conversations for these backs so uh connor agrees with that as well appreciate everybody watching and listening i'm trevor sickman that's connor rogers saying thank you for watching the nfl stock exchange podcast see you guys later this week.