No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen - Special election SURGES into national spotlight

Episode Date: July 30, 2023

There is a major update on Ohio’s upcoming referendum. Brian interviews FOX LA anchor Elex Michaelson about a third Trump indictment, whether Trump shows up to the debate, DeSantis overplaying his hand on the “woke” stuff, and why the economic wins aren’t sticking for Democrats.Donate to the "Don't Be A Mitch" fund: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dontbeamitchShop merch: https://briantylercohen.com/shopYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/briantylercohenTwitter: https://twitter.com/briantylercohenFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/briantylercohenInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/briantylercohenPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/briantylercohenNewsletter: https://www.briantylercohen.com/sign-upWritten by Brian Tyler CohenProduced by Sam GraberRecorded in Los Angeles, CASee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Today we're going to talk about some major news on Ohio's upcoming referendum, and I interview Fox L.A. anchor Alex Michelson about a third Trump indictment, whether Trump shows up to the debate, Desantis overplaying his hands on the woke stuff, and why the economic wins aren't sticking for Democrats. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen, and you're listening to No Lie. Okay, we've got good news out of Ohio. So first off, pro-choice advocates submitted over 495,000 valid signatures, meaning there will be a proposal on the ballot in November to enshrine abortion.

rights in Ohio state constitution. So that's good news right off the bat. And currently, for a constitutional amendment to be adopted in that state, the rule is that you need a simple majority, which is 50% plus one vote. However, before November on August 8th, which was just a week away, Republicans in the Ohio legislature called a special election on the question of raising the threshold for amending the state constitution from 50 plus 1 to 60%. You don't have to be like a rocket scientist to understand the link here. This was specifically engineered by Republicans to prevent Ohioans from being able to enshrine abortion rights in their Constitution. And because the Ohio GOP just watched their neighbors in deep red Kentucky

and swingy Michigan pass pro-choice ballot measures, not to mention the other deep red state of Kansas, clearly they're pulling out whatever hurdles they can to stop this one from passing in their state. But here's the good news, aside from the fact that there were almost 100,000 more signatures than were required to actually get this amendment on the ballot. As of Friday, July 28th, so these numbers will be even higher when you listen to this, there were over 355,000 people who voted early, meaning by mail and in person, for the August 8th election. And that's compared to about 288,000 overall voters

who voted early in the May 22 primary election. And that's from Ohio reporter Andrew Tobias. And yes, we're comparing apples to oranges a little bit. But remember, this is the only question on the ballot right now. And it's an August special election in an off-year cycle. And yet still it's getting more interest in early voting than the primary election got in midterms. That's a big deal.

And a few things to note here. First, early voting is still happening all the way up to August 6th, and then Election Day voting happens on August 8th. So while we may be seeing big numbers from early voting, Republicans who often and usually vote in person on election day see them too, and they're going to turn out, usually in numbers commensurate with what they're seeing from the early numbers.

So it's crucial that people not let up and continue turning out. And by the way, when we've had these standalone elections with huge implications for abortion rights, they've gone Democrats way and the GOP knows that. Again, Kansas, a state that Trump won by 15 points, rejected that constitutional amendment to ban abortion by a 20-point margin. In Wisconsin state Supreme Court race, a liberal judge, Janet Protasewitz, ran expressly on supporting abortion rights

and she won by 11 points in a true 50-50 state. And, of course, the midterms, which happened in the aftermath of Dobbs, were a bloodbath for Republicans who failed to flip the Senate and their big red wave in the House devolved into a majority of only five seats. And meanwhile, even despite, like, the obvious and universal support for abortion rights everywhere in the country, it's worth noting what Donald Trump is running on. I appointed over 300 federal judges and three great Supreme Court justices. And last year, those justices, and you know exactly what they did, they ruled to end Roe v. Wade. That is how far to the right the GOP base is, that if you want to have any chance at becoming the Republican-Nomic.

for president, you have to espouse support for arguably the most toxic issue that exists in politics right now. And don't forget, he's also on record prior to Dobbs saying this. Do you believe in punishment for abortion? Yes or no? As a principle. The answer is that there has to be some form of punishment. For the woman. Yeah. It has to be some form. And that's something that obviously has renewed significance now that Roe was overturned and what Trump said can absolutely turn into something more than just an empty threat like it was before. So look, I'm not here to tell Republicans how to run their campaigns, but I am here to tell voters that they should be listening to what Republicans are saying and watching what they're doing. The fact that they witnessed the shalacking that they got in the ballot box in 2022 and every subsequent election where abortion was a factor and are still plowing forward with this extreme agenda proves that this is not a party that feels accountable to voters.

They don't care what people actually want. They're there to impose a theocratic agenda onto a population that doesn't want it. It is governing in its most dangerous form. And the good news is that we keep stopping it, but it requires turning out every single time. Next step is my interview with Alex Michelson. All right, now we've got the anchor of Fox, L.A., and the host of The Issue is California's biggest statewide political show,

my good friend Alex Michelson, Alex, thanks for coming back on. Brian, great to be back with you. All right, so, Alex, we are maybe minutes, maybe days, maybe weeks away from the inevitable third Trump indictment. So because I don't want this to instantly become obsolete, can I get your reaction to the imminent prospect of Trump's third indictment at the hands of the DOJ and whether you think it'll have any impact on this race? Well, you know, we're witnessing history this year. I don't know if we're going to see Shohei Otani hit more home runs or Donald Trump get more indictments. Both these guys are like unicorns because they're defying the law.

the laws of physics. You know, Shohei Otani should not be able to pitch and hit at that level. Donald Trump should not be able to pick up indictments like pieces of candy and then continue to dominate. It is crazy to think that we're now in a world where indictments turn out to be shrugged off by folks in the media, folks in terms of voters, and it turned out to be political. political pluses in the Republican base. So in the short term, it doesn't appear that any of these indictments are going to harm Donald

Trump. In fact, in the short term, it only appears that they're going to help Donald Trump. What we don't know is if he does become the Republican nominee, does it hurt him in a general election, you know, you would think that it probably should based off of the patterns of the past. you would think in the past that the image of court dates consistently coming up in all different cases would hurt somebody in a general election but you would think that this all would have hurt him so far and so far it's only been a positive yeah but I feel like when we when

we talk about it being a positive we do it from the perspective of like Trump's standing within the Republican base but these base voters are already Trump people as it is so like you're basically showing that that people who already really support him just continue to really support him. And so like I guess the question becomes like, yeah, I feel like it's kind of a misnomer for us because we're constantly looking at his support within the Republican base because there is the Republican primary happening right now go up. But at the same time, I mean, you mentioned independent voters. I mean, that's where the important voters lie. And these races are won on the margins. I mean, 10,000, 20,000 votes are going to separate winners and losers in a state like

Wisconsin. Do you think that this will have an impact on those people, not just the base voters, but those people who decide the elections. Well, we don't know yet, but, you know, we do know that the way that Donald Trump looks at the world is very different from the way that Barack Obama, say, looked at the world. Barack Obama saw everything in terms of a long game. He saw stuff in terms of history. He didn't really care about winning news cycles. He'd get annoyed at having to do too many soundbites because he thought it was beneath him.

And he sort of looked at historical trends. Donald Trump is like, I want to have the best Kairon on Fox News channel right now. Yeah. Like that's what he's focused on. Like not winning the day, winning the afternoon. Yeah, the moment. Yeah.

Winning the moment. Changing, you know, he gets excited when he would tweet something out and then he see all the news networks scramble to cover it. So Donald Trump is like winning day to day. He's not thinking about what's going to happen six months from now. He'll deal with that then. But immediately, the thing that matters most, for him right now is how do I win the Republican nominee nomination and how do I basically either

clear the field or have a Republican nomination battle that is so crowded that I become the alternative and I'm able to skate through for the nomination. And right now, that's what's happening. Ron DeSantis has not emerged as the clear alternative to Donald Trump, even though he says that he is. And when you see the emergence of people like Tim Scott or even like Vivek Ramaswami or some of these other folks that that are doing well on the fringes of Maga world, that is good news for Donald Trump. It's good news for Trump, especially because the people who are doing well, like Vivek, like DeSantis to some degree, are basically just mini trumps. And so at the end of the day, when they have to choose between whether they want the MAGA agenda from the guy who initiated,

who created that agenda or from some like, you know, second place guy, some mini-me, they're going to opt for Donald Trump at the end of the day. That's where those votes are going to be coalesced into. It's not the anti-Trump lane that's going to take over this thing. I mean, who wants to see the cover band when you can see the original? Right. Right. And so Donald Trump is playing the old hits.

But you still rather him do it than, you know, the Beatles spelled B-E-E-T-L-E-S, right? Well, with that said, the rest of Donald Trump's party is trying their heart. to basically carry water for him by attacking Joe Biden. They're trying to get an impeachment inquiry off the ground in the House. Do you think that this helps or hurts the Republicans politically? Because we're talking about an impeachment inquiry that is, to say it generously, not exactly on the level. Well, this is all as about, I think most of this is about Donald Trump's ego, right? I mean, if you've seen the reporting from Politico recently, what they're saying is that Donald Trump is mad at Kevin

McCarthy because he wants Kevin McCarthy to hold a vote to expunge his past impeachments. Which, by the way, isn't a thing. It is them pretending to themselves that the thing that happened didn't happen. Well, and there may not be the votes for that. Right. Because we know- 18 Republicans who are currently sitting in Biden-1 districts. Right. And there are two Republicans that voted for the impeachment in the first place. And there's no evidence that they've changed their mind on that. And Republicans only have a four-vote majority. So there may not be the votes to do that. It puts those Republicans in Biden districts in jeopardy. It makes life harder for them. Kevin McCarthy knows that. And by the way, if Donald Trump wants to be president, he needs to have

a Republican House in order for him to govern and get his agenda through. But again, it goes back to that idea of win the minute. So he'd like a headline that says impeachment expunge. So what could be the next best thing? Well, Biden got impeached too. Right. So now it's all, It's all political. My impeachment was political. His impeachment is political. It's all BS. It doesn't matter.

And so, you know, it's like the same thing they'll say whenever Trump talks about his stuff. Now it's the Biden crime family is his response, right? Hunter Biden's just as bad as I am. And it's all false equivalence. You know, Joe Biden had classified documents. Look at the Corvette. You know, look at the garage. You know, and that way it's all awash.

We're all bad. because if it's if it's we're all bad Trump's great at that because he's you know right he's not trying to make himself good but if he can make everybody else bad if he can if he can kind of sully the field for everybody then at least he can stand out

at least he has some plausible deniability he's best when he can say the whole system is rigged they're all against you everybody's an asshole but I'm your asshole yeah and I'm on your side and you need a motherfucker like me

to take everybody else on because the system is so bad and so swampy and so full of shit that unless you have an advocate like me, you're never going to win because they got every lobbyist they got the deep state, they got the media, they got everybody behind

them, and so you need a fighter like no other to take them on. And that is why Donald Trump is successful in the Republican Party because they see him as that. It's not about policy. It's not about in the weeds. they feel like he is a fighter for them

and the most alpha fighter of them all and he makes the rest of them look like pussies. Yeah, and by the way, they're doing themselves no favors to basically to turn that thought on its head because they're all cowtowing to him. Totally. Everybody except Chris Christie

is just too scared to throw even a slight punch and they're entrenching that very belief that he's the alpha, that they're all betas and nothing's changing. But they're in a weird place because you look at Chris Christie, who could not be articulating the case against Trump more beautifully, right? I mean, he is really, really good at doing that.

And he's got zero shot at winning the Republican nomination. Right. Zero shot. You know, the biggest hit he's going to do is on Pod Save America, which is interesting, you know, and great. And your listeners love them and all that. But that's not usually the place you go when you want to win over Republican voters. Right.

John Lovett is not the guy that they're looking for for the seal of a approval, right? And that says something that he needs to go there because Democratic donors are helping him get on the debate stage. Yeah. Speaking of, do you think Donald Trump shows up at the debate? I don't know. From what I hear talking to people that are really in the know on this stuff, it genuinely is 50-50. Yeah. I mean, the obvious political argument, if you're just looking at it objectively, would be for him not to go to the debate stage. And let me say, first off, I love debates, I think debates are important. I'm trying to organize a Senate debate in California. I organize the debate for the mayor's race and the sheriff's race, and I would love to

moderate a presidential debate one day. Like, that's my dream. I think they're important for democracy. But if you're just looking at it as, is it good for Donald Trump to be there? You know, if he's ahead right now, 25, 30 points in this race, if he's not there, he basically makes the debate almost irrelevant. Yes. It will get a higher rating than normal on Fox News channel. Yes, people like you and me will all be watching it and live tweeting it and be focused on it. But it is not the epic event that it would be if he was there and him and Christy are going at it and the whole thing and DeSandis and all the rest of it. It's a much smaller deal.

So if it's in Trump's best interest to freeze the race where it is right now, when you're up by 25, 30%, you want to freeze the race, he shouldn't go. Now, the guy loves to be on TV. Right. I mean, he's the great, one of the greatest TV performers in the history of politics. That's his brand. And his brand is also, I'm the tough guy. I'm the alpha. I'm the strong guy.

I can take on anybody. Right. I'm not the guy who's going to shy away from a debate with Tiny D and, uh... Right. Because I look, because that makes him look weak. Right. And so I think he instinctively knows that too. So it's this battle in his mind of, of, you know, head and heart.

And, and I, from what I hear, it literally could. be up into the last day for him to decide and he's trying to get a sense of what the way to go is. What do you think? You think he should go? Do you think he should? If I was advising him, probably not. I don't think he has anything really to gain by being there. I mean, sure, his ego will take like a slight hit, but you know, what he'll probably do is just do some counter-programming and get just as many people, if not more, to watch him do that. And that's it. I don't, I mean, would I like to see it? Of course I would, but do I think that he'll, do I, if I had to predict, if I had to put money on it, I'd say probably not. Yeah.

Do you think that, you know, as far as DeSantis goes, that he kind of overplayed his hand with the whole woke stuff? Like, do you think that he overestimated how potent that issue would be? Because he went all in on it. I mean, that is his whole, he is, the woke stuff for him is 9-11 for Rudy Giuliani, right? Well, right now, politically, he's choking on woke, right? I mean, he has gotten to a point where he fundamentally is not in line where most people are. And some of that... Are you suggesting that posting ads with Gigacad is not meeting the American people out in the Midwest, exactly where they are?

Part of the challenge for the way that our media landscape is set up on both the left and the right, although more on the right than on the left, because it's not exactly the same. is people have these feedback loops where all they see are certain things, so they think that everybody else sees the same things. Trump actually kind of got in trouble with this during the last debate with Biden when he started throwing out a bunch of phrases that are common on Fox News that most people don't know. Like the average voter, like what is the average voter actually interested in? They don't pay that close attention to politics.

They barely know these guys' names. What do they really care about? They care about keeping their family safe, being able to buy a house or pay rent, what the price of gas is when they're driving to work, and that their kids can go to a good school and that they have a job. That's what most people really care about. And the rest of the stuff is just noise. They're not that focused on Bud Light and Dylan Mulvaney. Most people probably don't know who Dylan Mulvaney is. They're not focused on Disney characters.

and what it's tweeted out between that, all the rest of that. Now, people that are in the conservative media ecosystem that are spending hours a day consuming that stuff, they are. And that does drive certain people. And so you can get sucked into a false sense of reality that that is the thing. But I don't think that's ultimately what's going on with Ronda Santas. I think ultimately what's happening with him has to do more with Trump than even with Ronda DeSantis. Because fundamentally, what Ron DeSantis is trying to say is that Donald Trump is a loser

and I can implement his policies better than him. But that's hard to do when Donald Trump in the polls is beating you by 25 points because he looks like a winner. And in terms of the policy stuff, I don't know how much of Trump's support is driven by policy. I think Trump's support is driven by just Trump just who he is like the by the force of personality yeah and by this sense that he is a fighter

who is on your side and that your side and his side aligned and I don't think DeSantis has been able to match that hasn't been able to match that and also like if the whole thing is vibes for Trump if it's his persona his charisma all that that's actually

where DeSantis is worse off and I know that we saw reporting before about how like DeSantis doesn't have, he doesn't have the X factor. You know, normally that wouldn't be a big deal. But I think in this case, when so much of the Republican primary voters are showing that charisma, that vibes is such a big deal for them, that they don't give a shit about policy, it doesn't matter what policy the person espouses, they just want that kind of fighter. And DeSantis just doesn't have it, then it does become a problem for him.

It does. And also, for, in large part, like Trump did do most of the policy stuff that they like, right? I mean, a lot of it, they did. They got three justices on the Supreme Court. That's made a huge difference in terms of policy. He gave big tax cuts to the rich. I mean, in terms of the, those are the two things for Republicans that are most animating. Half the party cares a lot about tax cuts, and half the party cares a lot about abortion.

And he did both of those things. Yeah. What he didn't bank on is that it would also be more animating for those on the left in response to that stuff. If you were advising Ron DeSantis, what would you tell him to change? What's one thing you would tell him to change? I think he's got to get out there more. They've been so hesitant to have him engage with people. You've seen a little bit of that change.

I know he sat down with Jake Tappermore. He does seem to have a problem getting outside of like the Florida media ecosystem, this conservative Florida ecosystem where he's able to just basically, you know, bully reporters from the pulpit and not really deal with any pushback and not do much national media where he does kind of face a little bit more scrutiny like for example when he came out here to california he did a fundraising trip um i invited him on my show and they politely declined um he did a several different fundraising events across the state closed to media kept everybody on the sidewalk were really sort of vague about where he was going to be like i think that's a missed

opportunity he's not at that point yet people outside of florida don't know him that well and most people aren't paying that close of attention. And so I think you do what Pete Buttigieg did, you know, with Liz Smith's help, his old comms director, which is to go everywhere and be out there as much as you possibly can. But you know the problem with that, right? Well, you agree that the candidate is the problem. Pete could do on Fox what Ron DeSantis could never do on MSNBC. Well, and maybe you don't put, maybe you don't put them on MSNBC, but you could put him doing

local news around the country. You could have him doing rallies, meeting people. You could you could have him where people get a sense of who he is. Yeah. I mean, I do think that it is the very element of getting a sense of who he is that that isn't exactly redounding to his benefit. But you just ask me what, what do you do? What do you do? You hide him? What would you do if you were, if you were in charge of the DeSantis campaign? To be honest, not run against Donald Trump. I feel like he's tarnishing his own brand. I mean, he, he was the era parent before Donald Trump had his way, chewed him up and spit him out, right? And so I think by virtue of doing this, he's creating so much ill will between himself and those very Trump supporters who he'll need in 2028 when he

inevitably runs. And so I think like he's kind of burning bridges that he doesn't need to burn right now. He's not going to be the nominee. His numbers have been sinking since December of 2022. Let let all these people scramble, uh, split the anti-Trump vote. It doesn't matter. Donald Trump's going to win the nomination anyway. And he can just kind of maintain his degree of like of relevancy in the Republican Party ahead of 2028. Although there's an argument to be made that Trump is so unpredictable and so much is happening and so many criminal charges are coming out. And he's older and not the fittest guy and all these other things that just being in place in case he totally implodes. Yeah.

is not a crazy thing. It's right. I mean, there's still a long time between now and when we have the Iowa caucuses. A lot could happen. There could be more indictments, more evidence. I mean, we didn't think that he was apparently trying to destroy video evidence. Like, we learned that this week. Right.

So, you know, if these cases start, you know, maybe just being there isn't the worst political thing to do. You mentioned before kitchen table issues, and we've spent years hearing how these elections should be and are about kitchen table issues. And Republicans would always hammer away at that stuff. They were very good at that stuff. It was often Democrats who would focus on the more nebulous issues and Republicans would win. Now the tables have turned. It seems that Democrats are the ones who are overseeing a successful agenda, 50-year low record unemployment rate. We've had 13.5 million jobs added.

We have wages that are now exceeding the inflation rate. Inflation has been sinking for 12 straight months. And the Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to scare grandma and grandpa about gas stoves and, you know, the president's civilian son. But at the same time, politics now is also very polarized. Tribal, polarized, and we're calcified in our positions. So do you think that the Democrats finally focusing on these economic successes is going to have a difference? Or is it coming at a time when it doesn't really matter anyway because, like, our team? teams are team. Well, you would hope that it would make a difference if you're a Democrat, but

the evidence so far is it not really. I mean, you look at the, you just mentioned all these economic factors. The other truth is Joe Biden's poll numbers are not that strong. And the right track, right, wrong track for the country is not great. And his his job approval numbers on the economy are not great. So I don't know how many people, even though inflation is going down, even though we're in a better place, even though unemployment is really low, how many people actually have felt that yet? Or said, thank you, Joe Biden. This is due to the inflation reduction act. You know, that sale is harder to do, and they haven't quite made that sale yet. Traditionally, they've been able to. That was like part of the reason that Bill Clinton was

such a successful politician back in the day when we were in a different media universe. will they now, you know, is it still the economy stupid or is it tribal politics get out the base? You know, we'll see. What do you attribute that lack of recognition for these economic successes to? Well, what do you think is the problem? What's the driving factor in the fact that even with an economy like this where we have, you know, we're performing the best of all G7 countries? I mean, this is the kind of economy that Republicans would, would, would, would,

Well, you know who else is not out there communicating directly to the American people all the time, like we talked about Ron DeSantis, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. They're not. They don't do a lot of interviews. They don't get out there on the road that much. They don't talk directly to the American people that much. They could be doing more on social media. I think the White House is afraid of both of them talking. And I think that that hurts them.

I think the Democratic Party, whether it's Joe Biden or Kamala Harris, or whether it's Pete Buttigieg or Gavin Newsom or Gretchen Whitmer or somebody else would be well served by having a very effective spokesperson at arguing the democratic agenda. Just to get in the weeds a little bit about that, do you think that there's any worry that if they do kind of crown someone, their spokesperson, that it would kind of take the thunder away from the person who should be the focus anyway. I mean, if they have Gavin Newsom who they bring in, you know, then you run into an obvious issue, right? That's the argument of are the Democrats making a strategic mistake that years later they will regret by putting all their chips behind an 81-year-old guy and a very unpopular vice president?

And could that lead to another Trump term down the road? I mean, for all the uncertainty about Donald Trump, and there's a lot of uncertainty about Donald Trump, there's a lot of uncertainty about Joe Biden. and his health and everything else. And that situation could change too. It is not clear still that Joe Biden and Donald Trump will even be in the race at this time next year, much less in the general election. It is not a foregone conclusion.

The argument could be made that the same things would have applied in 2020 and yet Joe Biden won. And then in 2022, I mean, it was Joe Biden's party that over that, you know, blue estimations out of the water. Yeah, but in 2020, Donald Trump was the president. We were in the middle of the pandemic. Joe Biden was a little younger. He didn't have to go out on the road because he could campaign from his basement. I mean, he could.

And Trump had all the attention on him because he was the incumbent. Bad attention. Bad attention. Yeah. This is a different time. I would argue it's Trump. Trump's attention hasn't gotten that much better. Now instead of people dying at a clip of $3,000 per day,

but now he's just contending with. And maybe the smartest strategy for Biden, which probably is, if you're just doing raw politics, is frankly not to say much. Get out of the way and let John and kill himself. And maybe that's just what they're doing. I mean, they say don't interrupt your enemy while they're making a mistake. And maybe that's the smartest way.

Yeah. But when you have seen Pete and Gavin and some of these other people go out there and actually make the case and sometimes make the case on Fox they can be really convincing and it leads you to wonder would the party be better off with that person

as compared to the person that they have if I were to guess I would say that there is no planet on which we would see anything like that happened in 2024 I think these guys are queuing themselves up for a great primary in 2028 I don't think there is a planet in which any of those guys challenge

Joe Biden yeah I don't think it is inconceivable that something could happen to him between now and the beginning of next year where he may pull himself out of the race. I would guess... Unlikely. Unlikely, yeah.

Of course, but not impossible. Nothing's impossible, right? And higher than just like 1%. All right, so I want to jump into some hot takes here. This is something I started with Tim Miller over at the Bullwark and I think it would be a fun thing to do here. As a journalist, I should say that I may not be able to go as hot as Tim Miller went. with his hot takes because I'm more limited in what I can say, but I'll do the best I can.

You can always pass. You can always pass. So let's jump into these. First Republican to drop out and the last Republican to drop out. And some of these are going to be, some of these are going to be recycled from previous hot takes. I think Will Hurd may be the first Republican to drop out. Okay. I don't know where his money is coming from. I don't, I think it's going to be hard for him to get attention. And in terms of the last Republican to drop out, well, I mean, I don't, I mean, I don't know.

I mean, maybe Tim Scott. So you think Tim Scott is going to outlast Ronda Santis? Maybe. Okay. Well, that's why they're hot takes. Does Trump lose any primaries? It's all about Iowa. I think that's the best chance for him to lose a primary.

He's lost it before. But if he wins Iowa, which means he probably wins New Hampshire. I think he sweeps the whole thing. Okay. Who finishes in second place, although I think we got that answer. I was going to say, as of right now, it looks like it's going to be some combination of either DeSantis, Tim Scott, or Vivek Ramoswamy. But who do you think?

I would agree with that. But you got to pick one. Well, I don't. I don't do. I'm not in the prediction business. I'm a journalist. That's what this is. This is a hot takes.

Who do you think? Who's finishing second? That's a great question. I hadn't thought about it. I wasn't ready for you to turn any of these back on me. I don't do predictions. I just make other people do them. I would say DeSantis as of right now.

I would say DeSantis. I'm going to pick the safe bet right now. Yeah, makes sense. Where is Trump convicted first? I don't think we know which one's going to go first. I hope as an American citizen who's interested in this stuff, that it is not New York. I think that fundamentally, the fact that New York went first in terms of the indictment

was bad for the process, bad for the system. I think there's a lot of people now that hear these new indictments and just shrug it off because they think it's all just, you know, one indictment after another. And that case should not have been the one that people heard about first. Who are the nominees in 28, Democrat and Republican? I mean, it would be fun if it was Gavin Newsom versus, uh, Ron DeSantis. For me, I mean, us in California, I would love to see that. Yeah. But I don't know. I mean, I think, I mean, I think the Democrats are well positioned

with a really strong bench of governors. I think Wes Moore is an incredibly impressive political performer that could be president one day. I've heard a lot of great buzz about Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan. A lot of the donors are really excited about her. Josh Shapiro has been a tremendous political athlete in Pennsylvania with what he's doing. And Pete Buttigieg is one of the smartest people I've ever met. And so I think all of them would be effective messengers. And they're all young. They are all effective messengers. They can hold their own on places like Fox News. They're all popular. Yeah. So that I think that, you know, that's a strong bench. And in terms of the Republican side, you know, traditionally the Republican Party has given the nomination to the person

who finished second. So under your scenario, if Ron DeSantis really is the guy who finished his second, he would likely be the guy the next time around. But who knows? A lot could happen between now and then. And there's also a scenario, which I know you talked about on one of your shows, that it could be Donald Trump. Yeah. Yeah. Which was a punch in the gut. I don't know how many more years of my life can be invested in this guy. Yeah. Or maybe one of his sons. Yeah. Well, that, at least for right now, I don't have as much trepidation over because these guys are not exactly, you know, brilliant tacticians. It's a long time to look out that far, you know. I mean, things change so quickly. Nobody would have predicted Trump. Nobody would have predicted Barack Obama. Nobody would have predicted Bill Clinton. I mean, you know, politics like media, like everything else, is all about riding the wave and catching that wave in the right moment. And whoever, is able to do that, that'll be the person. And we have no idea what that wave's going to look

like. Last one, who's going to win Schiff Reporter? Oh, that I'm not going to answer that. I knew I wasn't going to get an answer to that one. That's a plead the fifth, as somebody who's covering that race closely. But that's going to be a fun race, a fun race to see. It is. And as a Democrat, that race is especially promising because, because, you know, having two high profile candidates on the ballot will mean that everybody's going to come out to vote. All these Democrats are going to come out to vote. And we have a lot of districts, congressional districts in California that we lost by like just a tiny margin. And so that's going to drive a lot of people to the polls in a state that otherwise doesn't get the attention that a normal swing state like Michigan, like Wisconsin,

like Nevada, Georgia gets. Let's hope so because that's good for business for me. Yeah. One more thought on the Republican race potentially in 28. Whoever Donald Trump, if he is the nominee, chooses to be his vice president, that person's stature will be elevated in a big way. And if they're able to not get into a massive fight with him, which is hard. Yeah. But see, that person would probably be the frontrunner in 2028. To a degree, I kind of take issue with that because think about the kind of person who Donald Trump would need to tap as his VP, somebody who doesn't take the attention away from him,

somebody who isn't threatening to him. Yeah, but that could be Tim Scott. I mean, but look at what, look at what the MAGA basis. has been groomed into, do you think that they're going to, after having, you know, what are we going to be at? By the time 2024 rolls around, Donald Trump has been in the ether for, in the political ecosphere for eight years, somebody like that. Do you think that the magabase is then going to turn toward this like happy warrior that is Tim Scott at the end of the day? Or maybe it's not Tim Scott. Maybe it's, who knows who he picks. No, but I mean, I, I agree that it most likely will be somebody

like Tim Scott because it's somebody who's not going to take the spotlight away from him. Or he picks, I think he either picks a man that won't take the spotlight away from him. from him or a woman that he thinks is dynamic. He likes sometimes being surrounded by strong women. We're going to see a Carrie Lake 2028. Marjorie Taylor Green or somebody like that. Yeah. I mean, they would, they'd light Maga World on fire.

Yep. Yep. Well, you know, here we go. I'm glad I got into politics. Yeah. Glad I got him into politics for the right reasons. Yeah. I want to finish off with this.

You interviewed a Holocaust survivor this past week. Yeah. Can you speak a little bit about that? Speaking of Marjorie Taylor. Yeah. Yeah. What was that like? Did any part of this interview surprise you? Yeah, we did this amazing interview, which you can find at YouTube.com slash Alex Michelson

with a woman named Selena Karp Binias. She's now 93. As a kid, she was the youngest girl on Oscar Schindler's list. He saved her life, saved her from Auschwitz, so that she could come work in his factory. Her parents actually lied about her. age so that she could work in a factory because they thought that would be a way to save her life. And after the Holocaust, she was very angry for good reason. And she ended up at this being taught by this German nun who was one of the first people to show her real love and who taught her about forgiveness and taught her that holding on to hate only hurts you. It doesn't hurt the person you hate. It hurts you. And that in order to have room in your

heart for more love, you have to let go of the hate and learn to forgive and learn to move on and focus on rest of your life. And so when you often hear from Holocaust survivors, they are focused just on the Holocaust. She ended up living an amazing life as a special education teacher, as invested in her family, very committed to the community. Her biographer, Bill Frederick, said she lived the American dream. And she's incredibly sharp now, completely with it at 93, an amazingly smart, interesting person. Steven Spielberg is very close with her after Schindler's list. She started working with him in the Shoah Foundation.

She's spoken to Barack Obama and Gal Godot invited her to her house a few weeks ago. I mean, she's just this incredible person. And maybe there's something to be learned, too, about longevity by having a heart that is compassionate and forgiving. And that maybe is good in terms of. your overall health as well. Yeah. Yeah, I would highly recommend anybody watching or listening. Check that interview out. Again, that's YouTube.com slash Alex Michelson, Alex with an E. Where can we hear more from you? Well, at YouTube, you can also subscribe to the Issue Is podcast where our show is put out. You can watch the

issue is. The Issue.com also has all of our past episodes as well. So, I hope people check it out. And we love your audience. You've been very good to me. And they've been very good. I hear people commenting all the time. I came to you from BTC and so we love you guys. Thank you so much for that. Awesome. Alex, thanks for taking the time. Thank you. Hopefully I didn't get myself in too much trouble. Thanks again to Alex. That's it for this

episode. Talk to you next week. You've been listening to No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen. Produced by Sam Graber, music by Wellesie, interviews captured and edited for YouTube and Facebook by Nicholas Nicotera and recorded in Los Angeles, California. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe on your preferred podcast app,

Feel free to leave a five-star rating and a review, and check out briantylercoen.com for links to all of my other channels.