No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen - The possibility of a Democratic Speaker surges into spotlight

Episode Date: October 15, 2023

The prospect of a Hakeem Jeffries Speakership surges into the spotlight. Brian interviews former Obama spokesman and host of Pod Save America and Pod Save the World, Tommy Vietor, about the situation unfolding in Israel and Gaza, how this happened in what’s supposed to be the most secure country in the world, and his response to Republicans exploiting the tragedy for their own political gain.Donate to the "Don't Be A Mitch" fund: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dontbeamitchShop merch: https://briantylercohen.com/shopYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/briantylercohenTwitter: https://twitter.com/briantylercohenFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/briantylercohenInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/briantylercohenPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/briantylercohenNewsletter: https://www.briantylercohen.com/sign-upWritten by Brian Tyler CohenProduced by Sam GraberRecorded in Los Angeles, CASee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Today we're going to talk about the prospect of a Hakeem Jeffrey's speakership in the Republican House, and I interview former Obama spokesman and host of Pod Save America and Pod Save the World, Tommy Vitor, about the situation unfolding in Israel and Gaza, how this happened in what's supposed to be the most secure country in the world, and his response to Republicans exploiting this tragedy for their own personal gain. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen, and you're listening to No Lie. So I want to talk about the prospect of a Hakeem Jeffrey's speakership with a Republican House majority.

So first, here's the situation in the House. We are another week down and another week without a Republican speaker. So this past week, the race was between Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, where Scalise had the support of 113 Republicans, and Jim Jordan had the support of 99 Republicans. And so, of course, when Scalise recognized that he didn't have a majority, he dropped out. And recognizing that Jim Jordan only had a minority of votes, but is focused solely on consolidating power for himself,

he opted to stay in the race. And just as a quick aside, I think that singular moment is a pretty accurate microcosm for the far right flank of the GOP, because here's Jim Jordan with nowhere close to the majority of support, and yet he sees that as a mandate to just rule over everyone, to preside over everyone, like the entire Republican Party person, and yet it makes sense. NBC's CEO Kepa tweeted, one House Republican aide tells me he's confident Jim Jordan will get elected speaker because, quote, the people opposing him are mob. either he gets it or the moderates for the first time ever grow a spine, which really is how it goes, right? The quote-unquote moderates and the GOP whine and complain about how the face of their party is Lauren Bobert and Marjorie Taylor Green and Jim Jordan. And yet when it comes time to stand up to the Lauren Boberts and Marjorie Tiller Greens and Jim Jordans, well, you see, they couldn't possibly do that. And so they let themselves get steamrolled by the crazies because they're too afraid of getting primaried and then they sit back and wonder why they're

bunched together with the Looney Tunes. Yeah. One of Life's great mysteries. But there might actually be another out for those Republicans who perhaps don't want to be represented in the House by a far-right insurrection sympathizer, whose claim to fame is that he's alleged to have ignored the sexual abuse of over 100 student athletes during his time at OSU. And that is that now Hakeem Jeffries has begun floating the idea of crossing the aisle and supporting him. And that's why it's so urgently necessary that the Republicans get their act together and elect the Speaker from within their own ranks as it is the responsibility of the majority party to do,

or have traditional Republicans break with the extremists within the House Republican conference and partner with Democrats on a bipartisan path forward. We are ready, willing, and able to do so. I know there are traditional Republicans who are good women and men who want to see government function, but they are unable to do it within the ranks of their own conference,

which is dominated by the extremist wing, and that's why we continue to extend the hand of bipartisanship to them. Okay, and I want to caveat this. Is it likely that this happens, of course not? But at this point, neither is Republicans being able to elect a speaker from their own conference. I mean, seriously, we are two weeks into Republicans having no speaker, and the closest they've come is Jim Jordan, who needs to flip 51 Republicans to get elected.

Like, we're not talking about five or ten holdouts here. We're talking about 55 holdouts, and he can afford to lose four. That's not an uphill climb. That is a vertical climb. This is like scaling a greased up mile-high flagpole. And the thing about having your party hijacked by extremists is that they won't compromise.

That's how the House Freedom Caucus operates, meaning the only person they'll settle with is another extremist like them, another person like Jim Jordan. And so the option becomes an extremist within the Republican conference like Jim Jordan or perhaps Hakeem Jeffries. Who do you think Don Bacon is more

likely to vote for? Who do you think those other 18 Biden district Republicans are more likely to vote for? I'm not saying they will vote for Jeffries, but what's going to be a more difficult explanation back home in their district? That they sided with a Democrat in a district that just voted for a Democrat for president? Or that they sided with Jim Jordan, the House's iteration of Donald Trump, who was already rejected by the people in those very districts? And I'll just add, at least some form of coalition government in the House would mean something gets done, right? I'm not sure what Republicans had intended to do with their majority, but offering up some failed bills on gas stoves

probably isn't why most of these people got involved in government. And compare that with what Democrats did with their own majority, from the American Rescue Plan to the Inflation Reduction Act, the Pact Act, Chips Act, the Infrastructure Law, the Gun Safety Law, reauthorizing the Violence Against Women Act, codifying marriage equality at the federal level. I know it doesn't rise to the significance of waging the war on Christmas, but it's something.

So, again, unlikely that we're going to see it happen. But the fact that Hakeem Jeffries is seeing the dire position that Republicans are in, and for the first time making overtures may signal that something is on the horizon. And while it's not the Democrats' job to save Republicans from themselves, they'd be well served to take Hakeem Jeffries up on his offer to do exactly that. Next up is my interview with Tommy Vitor. Now I've got the former National Security Council spokesman under Barack Obama and the host of Potsave America and Pod Save the World.

and my co-host for a show called Liberal Tiers on Potsave America's YouTube channel, Tommy, thanks for coming on, man. Ryan, it's great to see you, buddy. So can you give a brief explanation of how we got here in the midst of this latest Israeli-Palestinian conflict? Can you start with the attack on Israel a few days back that kind of spurred this whole recent spate of events? Yes, so on Saturday, Israel time, Saturday morning, the Hamas terrorist organization launched this surprise attack on Israel. It had multiple parts to it. They launched something like 2,000 rockets from the Gaza Strip into Israel.

There were Hamas fighters on hang gliders, literally flying over the barrier fence between Gaza and Israel. And then there were basically Hamas ground forces overrunning checkpoints and using, you know, backhose and trucks to break through the barrier. And they just were able to stream into parts of Israel that were along that border. And so, you know, these towns and kibbutzs near in southern Israel were quickly overrun. Villages were massacre and people were taken hostage. There's something like a thousand casualties on the Israeli side, as the estimate I've seen. Thousands more have been wounded. So it's truly horrific.

And hundreds of hostages were taken as well. Now, Israel is ostensibly the most secure country in the world. So how did this happen? It's a shocking intelligence failure. I mean, Israel has got. one of the most powerful militaries in the world. They've got one of the best intelligence services in the world or at least people thought there are drones, there are satellite images, there are sensors all over that border at the Gaza Strip. So it is truly shocking that Hamas was able

to penetrate and get deep into Israel like that. There's a lot of theories as to why. Clearly the intelligence services just did not have Hamas wired as well as we might have thought might have thought they would. They didn't pick this up. Clearly, people were not watching whatever cameras or sensors or drone feeds that they have monitoring the Gaza border. And then it does seem very likely that Bibi Net Yahoo had redeployed members of the Israeli military from the Gaza region to the West Bank to deal with settler violence there and to deal with, you know, other challenges. So, you know, there was just this confluence of events led to a catastrophe. I want to read an excerpt from Al Monitor from a source that they spoke with there.

Quote, Hamas's success surprised them too. They hoped to kill some Israelis, embarrass the IDF, and return to Gaza with two or three kidnapped Israelis. Instead, they roamed inside Israel for more than a day, killing over a thousand Israelis and getting stuck with something like 200 abductees. They are very worried. With two abductees, they could have negotiated with Israel for permission to build a seaport and freedom for hundreds of prisoners held in Israeli jails with more than a hundred abductees. They'll face the entire Israeli army inside Gaza. That's the tragedy of their success.

Do you agree with this sentiment? I mean, listen, I obviously can't confirm their thinking, but it does make sense to me. I mean, I think that I imagine that Hamas thought they would face a lot more resistance and said they were able to just pour their forces over the border. And you're right. I mean, now they're sitting on reportedly 100, 150 abductees in Gaza. The Israeli military has started a bombing campaign that is brutal and relentless and has led to hundreds and hundreds of casualties on the Gaza side. Thousands and thousands more have been injured. Netanyahu is now talking about a potential ground invasion of the Gaza Strip. There's talk of Israel potentially reoccupying the Gaza Strip.

So, yeah, I mean, I do think they're probably. some within Hamas who think that this is going to lead to a reprisal that could be incredibly devastating. For a terrorist organization, a lot of their, I guess, worth or value or power is derived from the continued hatred between these two regions. If this all results in Israel going back into Gaza, isn't that going to redound to Hamas' benefit at the end of this? Yeah, I mean, look, my take on this is that I don't think that there's a military

solution to this problem. Obviously, Israel has been occupying the West Bank for a very long time. That has not put an end to violence. The Gaza Strip has been blockaded by Israel for 16 years. That hasn't prevented Hamas from getting a hold of rockets and other weapons that they used during this attack. So ultimately, what Israelis and Palestinian sides both need is some sort of diplomatic talks that lead to a two-state solution that,

that creates, you know, some sort of political dynamic in peace. But I do think that, you know, Israel trying to reoccupy the Gaza Strip would be catastrophic. Well, you know, we've heard about this, this idea of a two-state solution for at least my entire life. In your estimation, is something like that going to happen? Or is that just a thing that people say to sound diplomatic? I mean, I think that for many, many years, a lot of American officials, a lot of, you know, officials in both countries sincerely wanted a two-state solution. I, you know, I believe the Palestinian people want a Palestinian state. I think there's a lot of Israelis that want a Palestinian state and they just want there to be peace. I think the challenge has been

leadership on both sides that hasn't necessarily always been committed to a two-state solution and the hard political concessions that it would require to get there. So listen, you know, I have long questions, uh, Bibi Netanyahu in particular is commitment. to creating a Palestinian state more recently, he's seen far more interested in annexing more and more territory in the West Bank that would foreclose potentially the opportunity for Palestine to have its own country because it would just be sliced into little pieces by different settlement outposts and roads and things and barriers. So yeah, I mean, I think that the hope of a two-state solution is a hell of a lot farther away today than it was a week ago. And, you know, those

those talks were sort of dead anyway. I do want to go to the topic of BB, but first, an issue that's kind of presented itself here, as we've all figured out how to discuss this stuff, anyone who expresses sympathy for Israel is attacked as not also caring about the historic treatment of Palestinians, and anyone who expresses sympathy for the plight of Palestinians right now is being attacked as justifying Hamas' terrorism. And so everyone is really speaking past each other right now. obviously this is an issue that requires a lot of nuance that most people don't really seem to be willing to give right now or that this whole that this whole moment we're in isn't really known for so how are you approaching this issue here here's how I think about this right I mean Hamas is responsible for this terrorist attack that happened on Saturday this was a terrorist attack I don't think you can defend mass occurring innocent kids at a music festival you can't defend murdering kidnapping children and babies. I don't care who does it. There's no defending that. I also think, though, that we as people who want to understand this problem, who want to get to a solution, can't view this event

in isolation. You have to look at the broader set of security and political challenges in Israel and the West Bank and Gaza. And it starts with the fact that peace talks and hope for a Palestinian state has been dead in the water for a very long time. The Trump administration basically gave up on a two state solution or a Palestinian state. They focused on these Abraham Accord agreements, which were deals between the Israeli government and other countries in the region to normalize relations. But the Palestinians were just an afterthought. But meanwhile, you know, life for the average Palestinian has gotten worse and worse. That is true in Israel proper. It's true in the West Bank. It's true in Gaza. You know, Palestinians in the West Bank have been getting pushed out of their homes by

settler communities. There's been a number of instances of settler violence against Palestinian communities. Often those settlers are protected by the Israeli military. And so, you know, there is this desperation and lack of hope among a lot of Palestinians. And look, again, I will never justify terrorist attack. But I think what we have to do is try to understand how the average Palestinian feels and how little hope they have of a future with their own state or equal rights. And just acknowledge that historically people living under occupation have often turned to arm resistance and that the worst voices tend to flourish in that context, you know, terrorist groups like Hamas. So I think like what we have to get back to is a sincere commitment from the Palestinian Authority and from the Israeli

government to get to a two-state solution. And the U.S. government has got to push for that. But again, I mean, I think that feels very far away in this moment after this, this attack, on Israel, that's, you know, a lot of people are calling the worst thing that happened in Israel's history. Republican Senator Josh Hawley came out and tweeted, Israel is facing existential threat. Any funding for Ukraine should be redirected to Israel immediately. Can you speak on Republicans using what is happening in Israel right now as a cudgel against Ukraine, which has been there, I guess the topic that they've been looking to attack for months now? Yeah, I saw that Josh Holly suite, and it was one of the dumbest, most incoherent things I've ever seen. Does he not think that the Ukrainians are facing

an existential threat? I mean, they've been invaded and bombed and massacred by Russian troops for what, almost two years now. So yes, of course, I think the U.S. should quickly try to do what they can to support the Israeli government in this moment. But I also think they should be supporting the Ukrainians as they're trying to expel an occupying force in their country. I mean, So, like, I think what's happening is Republicans just never waste a second to jump all over any kind of horrific events in the world and blame it on Joe Biden. I saw Tim Scott today said that Joe Biden has blood on his hands. What is he talking about? Rhonda McDaniel called called it a great opportunity.

Called an opportunity. They think about politics first and the rest comes after. I think that kind of hackish short-term thinking creates a political context where the United States government, all governments, make bad decisions. They don't solve the underlying problem. You know, you can't govern by press release. So Josh Hawley is just an unsurious person. Yeah, it kind of reminds me of when Donald Trump wanted to withdraw funding from the Northern Triangle countries because he didn't want to support any of those countries and wanted to keep all those people out of the United States through the southern border. But what's going to happen when you stop funding those same countries?

it's going to just send the number of migrants heading northward skyrocketing. And that's exactly what happens when you withdraw the kind of funding. So this like 24-hour news cycle governing just to win the day kind of, to your point, doesn't fix the underlying problem and at times actually exacerbates it. Yeah, it's this is very simplistic approach where these guys act like you can, you know, wage war in every instance and kill your way out of every problem. And that's just not going to, that's not going to work here. You know, I mean, you need to solve.

all these underlying political problems. That takes time. It takes diplomacy. It takes some really hard work. It takes concessions. And, you know, Josh Holly's stupid tweet is not helping anyone. Can you talk about the impact of bolstering Russia in their fight against Ukraine by withdrawing any funding for Ukraine and how would actually help the alliance that Russia has right now with China and Iran? And obviously, the link that Iran has to funding the attacks against Israel. Yeah, I mean, like, I think that if the U.S. stopped providing, funding for Ukraine, the Ukrainians would get overrun and be defeated quickly. I mean, Vladimir Putin himself has said, if the West withdraw support, they will be crushed. And it's clear that,

you know, Putin is looking at what's happening between Hamas in Israel. And he's happy about it because it is just another massive distraction for the international community. And he's hoping that we will all turn away from supporting the Ukrainians to focus on what's happening in Israel. So I really think that Joe Biden has to do both. He's going to try to do both. But you're right. I mean, it is worth noting that, you know, Iran has been backing Hamas historically for many years. Iran is also providing the Russians with drones that they're using to deadly effect in Ukraine.

So it's a pretty toxic mix here. Yeah. I mean, the same people who are trying to fight back against Iran are the same ones who want to bolster the alliance that Iran is in right now with China and Russia. So, you know, going back to Bibi Netanyahu, who you'd spoken about earlier, can you just speak about him, what his role in Israel is right now and how he came back from the political dead, basically, and what his reaction's been to this entire attack? Yeah, I mean, look, Bibi Netanyahu has been around for decades. He came back into power or late last year by cobbling together a coalition government that includes some of the most right-wing, racist, homophobic lawmakers in the history of the country it's it's lawmakers who previously were just sort of seen as untouchable in israeli politics because they did and said such horrific things but net yahoo

is facing all these corruption allegations he's actually being prosecuted as we speak and he thinks that the way he can save himself from going to jail is by staying in power and essentially figuring out a way to get the kinesse at the israeli parliament to give him a get out of jail free card So he is working with these ultra-orthodox, ultra-nationalist right-wing groups that don't believe the Israelis have, I'm sorry, that don't believe the Palestinians have a right to exist, that they want to fully annex the West Bank. They just want to take it over and make it Israel proper and control it forever. And I think Netanyahu going into a coalition government with those forces, and these individuals, has exasperated this sense in Palestinian community. that they have no hope, that there is no future for them, and that they are just going to live under the Israeli government's rule forever, under occupation. Now, as we move forward with this, what do you anticipate will happen? Have you, you know, given your work in the government before during the Obama administration,

what should we expect to see here? And I guess what should we do moving forward? What makes this unbelievably complicated is there are reportedly up to 150 hostages being held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. and Netanyahu and the Israeli government is going to be under tremendous pressure to get them back and to do it quickly. So the IDF, the Israeli defense forces, are currently bombing what they say are Hamas targets in Gaza. The problem with that is, you know, Gaza is one of the most densely packed places on earth. Two million people are living in a, you know, city the size of Washington, D.C.

Hamas co-locates its headquarters, its weapons, its fighters with civilians. So there's just no way to wage war in the Gaza Strip without killing civilians. So what I'm hoping is the international community will call on Netanyahu to respond in a way that's proportionate, that gets the hostages back, that takes out the leadership of Hamas, but that tries to protect civilians as much as possible, in part because, you know, these hostages, Hamas is threatening to kill them if the airstrikes continue. And there's also talk of Israel potentially sending ground troops into Gaza. That is incredibly scary because that would lead to urban combat and there would be massive casualties on both sides. And Hezbollah, which is another Iranian-linked terrorist group in the region based out of Lebanon, has said that if Israel launches a ground invasion into Gaza, that they will get involved to. And Lebanon is a big, sophisticated fighting force with a lot of rockets pointed at Israel and it could be really, really ugly.

All right. Well, obviously we're going to see this situation continue to develop. So for people looking to stay on top of this stuff with you, where can they see and hear more from you? Yeah. And you listen to Pod Save the World is the podcast I do with Ben Rhodes, my former colleague in the Obama White House and National Security team. We try to talk through the biggest events in the world every week. So we're talking about this a lot. So subscribe, check it up. Awesome. Tommy, thanks so much for joining. Thanks, Brian. Thanks again to Tommy. That's it for this episode. Talk to you next week. You've been listening to No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, produced by Sam Graber, music by Wellesie,

interviews captured and edited for YouTube and Facebook by Nicholas Nicotera, and recorded in Los Angeles, California. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe on your preferred podcast app. Feel free to leave a five-star rating and a review, and check out Brian Tyler Cohen.com for links to all of my other channels.