No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen - Trump faces surprise punishment in ALL prosecutions

Episode Date: April 28, 2024

The implications of judges not holding Trump to account in the face of his repeated violations of the law surge into the national spotlight. Brian interviews Pod Save America host Tommy Vietor about the passage of foreign aid, how it’s impacted Marjorie Taylor Greene’s standing, and the implications of TikTok’s possible ban in the US.Donate to the "Don't Be A Mitch" fund: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/dontbeamitchShop merch: https://briantylercohen.com/shopYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/briantylercohenTwitter: https://twitter.com/briantylercohenFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/briantylercohenInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/briantylercohenPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/briantylercohenNewsletter: https://www.briantylercohen.com/sign-upWritten by Brian Tyler CohenProduced by Sam GraberRecorded in Los Angeles, CASee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Today we're going to talk about the implications of judges not holding Trump to account in the face of his repeated violations of the law. And I interview Pod Save America host Tommy Vitor about the passage of foreign aid, how it's impacted Marjor Taylor Green standing in the House, and the implications of TikTok's possible ban in the U.S. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen, and you're listening to No Lie. So at some point in the coming minutes, hours, days, or maybe even by the time you've listened to this, Judge Mershan will find Donald Trump in criminal contempt for any of the more than 10 violations

of his gag order, and that's in the New York criminal trial. The moment that Judge Mershon does that, Donald Trump will be in violation of his conditions of release in other cases. So you remember on August 3rd, 2023, Trump was in court for his arraignment. That was in D.C. And the federal magistrate judge said to Trump, quote, it is important to comply with your conditions of release. If you fail to comply, a warrant may be issued for your arrest and you may be held before

trial. Your most important condition of release is that you not commit a state, federal, or local offense. If so, your release may be revoked. He then asked Donald Trump, do you understand these warnings, sir, to which Trump nodded. Let's be clear. Criminal contempt is a crime, meaning Trump will have committed a crime while on pretrial release in his other cases, thereby violating the terms of his release, which means that Judge Chutkin in D.C., or Judge McAfee in Fulton in Georgia, or Judge Cannon in Florida, and certainly Judge Mershaw in New York, have a justification to detain Trump pending trial. And I've spoken about Judge Mershon at length. What's likely to happen is that

Trump will get a warning for his gag order violations, probably a thousand bucks for each fine, and then hopefully a warning that if there is even one more violation, he'll surrender his right to pretrial release. So that's Judge Mershon. But as far as these other cases go, will Judge Chutkin or Cannon or McAfee revoke Trump's pretrial release? Here's the thing, I wouldn't bet on it. These judges haven't exactly like put a clinic on in fearless presiding. Judge Cannon is literally so in the tank for the guy that she might as well be on his defense team. But this lack of courage, to simply do their jobs without fear of favor is an issue not only because it undermines faith in the entire justice system that we actually do have a two-tier justice system, not only because

it allows Trump to get away with more criminality and no accountability, but because every day he's not held accountable, it emboldens him even more. When a judge imposes a gag order or certain conditions of release and Trump violates them and nothing happens, it shows him that the rules don't apply to him. Fast forward to the hellish scenario that Trump wins in November. He would become president then under the pretense that rules don't apply to him, that laws don't apply to him, that he can do whatever he wants, because frankly

he is able to do whatever he wants. And look, the point here is not for anyone to, like, throw their hands up and give up on the court system, because us checking out is actually exactly what Donald Trump wants. He wants zero scrutiny. He wants a disinterested electorate. He wants to slink through this trial with little to no fanfare.

So no, I'm not saying any of this so that you despair. I'm saying this because progressive media needs to demand that the judges uphold the standards that they themselves set. Rightway media has been running Trump Apology since the second this trial started. If we're not fighting back on the left every second of the day, then we are seating this ground to the bad actors on the right, the guys who are carrying water for this criminal. We need to keep the pressure on and get it out there that if these judges are going to set

conditions of Trump's release, then if and when he violates them, they need to be prepared to do their jobs, regardless of his former position, regardless of his current position, and regardless of the massive campaign right-wing media is blasting out in the airwaves to protect him. They're not the only ones with a megaphone, and they're certainly not the only ones who should be able to dictate the terms of this conversation. And lastly, I need to make this point, because we spend a lot of time focusing on these cases. The real test of holding Donald Trump accountable isn't going to happen in the courtroom in Manhattan or in D.C. or Fulton County or in Florida.

It's going to be at the polls. Let's face it. If Trump wins, it's going to be difficult to see any of his prosecutions go forward. But if he loses, then not only do we avoid what would effectively be the end of democracy in America, but it'll ensure that Donald Trump has held to account in the courtroom, delays be damned. So whether it's good news from his prosecutions or bad news, just know that at the end of the day, what actually matters is what happens in November. Next step is my interview with Tommy Vitor. I'm joined down by the host of Potsave America and Pod Save the World, Tommy. Tommy, thanks for taking the time. Thanks for having me on, man. Of course. It's great to be here.

And hey, congrats on the Webby, best news podcast for Pod Save the World. You know, it was nice to win. And listen, thank you for having me on because there's like very, very few progressive media outlets doing what you're doing, doing what we're trying to do. So we've got to support each other. That's why I subscribe to everything you do. I hope your listeners will subscribe to Pod Save America because, you know, we're facing down the Fox News barrel here and it's scary. That's right. And we will, of course, you know, for everybody watching right now, please make sure to subscribe.

Okay, so Tommy, let's dive in here. to do it. The foreign aid bill has finally passed both chambers. It was signed into law by Biden. That's the $95 billion that's going to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. On the House side, this had passed despite major opposition from Marjorie Telle Green and these other far-right MAGA Republicans. What does this do to Marjor Telle Green standing? Like, does this pierce the bubble that she had outsized strength in that conference? I think so. I mean, I think she looks completely feckless. You know, I have to, like, I have to say, credit to Speaker Johnson. He did something that he thought was right, knowing, that there could be real political risk for him.

And he thought, no, he looked at the intelligence, and he decided that if Putin was able to win the war in Ukraine, that he might keep going into Western Europe. And then that might mean that a NATO country was at risk, which would draw us directly into the war. He said, no, let's give them assistance now. It's been too long. And so I think Marjorie Taylor Green looks like an idiot. And it seems like Trump sided with Speaker Johnson over her, which is not what anyone expected. Yeah, completely like tanks her, I guess, artificial standing that she had.

Just one quick thing on the Mike Johnson thing. I know, look, I know that we should take the win where we can. I know, I know. And I know you know what I'm going to say already, which is like, you know, it's hard to applaud him for doing the bare minimum. Like, this guy knew, based on these intelligence briefings, what would happen if Putin had carte blanche to, like, continue beating up on Ukraine. And the fact that it took him this long reflects really poorly onto him. So, yes, it is good. Look, I should just take the win, but it's worth noting that he could have done this sooner,

that the writing was on the wall in terms of the danger of allowing Putin to continue this barrage against Ukraine. And yet it took him this long to get here. Yeah, listen, continuing to support Ukraine was unequivocally the right thing to do on the merits. He was worried about the politics for six months, which was very costly for the Ukrainian military. They took a lot of casualties in that time. He got to the right place. I appreciate that he put politics aside. And also, you know, you have the New York Post mocking Marjorie Taylor Green on their front page. So it's a win-win here for humanity. All right. So let's talk about the impacts that this bill will actually have because on Wednesday, Biden signed the bill. He immediately announced that $1 billion would be going right to Ukraine. I believe he said the same day within hours of him signing it. In practical terms, what does this mean for the war in Ukraine? I mean, what it means is the United States will be able to rush them things that are absolutely critical to defending cities in defending positions currently being held by the Ukrainian military.

So early in the war, the Ukrainians were able to shoot down something like 80% of missiles, bombs, rockets fired at them from the Russian side. That percentage is dropped to like under 50%, which means people are getting killed. It means that the Russians are taking out civilian energy infrastructure. It's just been a really deadly time for Ukrainian civilians who are seeing more heavy bombardment now than they have seen since the very beginning of the war. So this is literally going to save lives. And also what it means is you have Ukrainian troops desperately trying to hold positions in eastern Ukraine, despite getting out fired at 10 to 1, which means the Russians were shooting 10 shells for every shell the Ukrainians could return fire with. So now they'll finally be able to address that shell hunger and actually start fighting back. And is this going to be enough? Like, are we going to need to be back here in X amount of months?

I mean, this was, you know, the whole bill was for $95 billion. A good portion of that is actually going to the U.S. military, to, you know, bolstering what we needed. So is this going to be enough? Like, is this our, was this our last shot, basically, to fund the war effort in Ukraine? It's the last shot until the 2024 election. And then after that, we'll know, is this a Trump-led government, is a Republican-led government that's going to cut off Ukraine, or is Joe Biden going to be in charge and we're going to keep supporting them? You're absolutely right that this package of arms is probably not enough for them to win the war or end the war. It's enough for them to continue to defend themselves. And I can understand why, you know, that's worrisome for people because it's a lot of money.

There's a lot of people dying, hopefully associated with this arms package. comes some sort of peace talks that might get us to a settlement and a ceasefire. It was widely accepted before that Putin would likely win this war without any aid from the U.S. What does this mean for Putin now? I mean, it means that he went from being in the best possible position. It means he went from having a strategy where he was just playing for time. He was waiting for the West to get tired, to get sick of sending money and assistance over to Ukraine. and basically just trying to wait us all out.

Now it means he's going to face stiff resistance for at least the next year. So, look, Putin is a dictator. Every indication is that Russian public opinion is fully behind this war, but he is still losing tens and tens of thousands of troops, hundreds of thousands, if you count people that are being wounded. So at some point, public opinion, or the politics of this could catch up to him and start causing problems. So he wants to win this thing fast.

and this tranche of aid is going to make that a lot harder. Okay, so let's pivot over to what's happening here in the U.S. Donald Trump had just won the Pennsylvania primary this past week, but not before losing almost 160,000 votes to Nikki Haley, who Tommy, I should remind you, dropped out like six weeks ago. Yes, she did. What is this signal for Trump moving forward? Like the fact that he, in a primary that he's already won,

in a primary where he's effectively running unopposed, that he's still losing, I think it was almost as high as 17% of his votes. to somebody who is literally not running in this election. Yeah. I mean, look, it's not a great sign for Donald Trump. I mean, he would like to be winning 100% of those votes. There is, if you look at the 2020 results, there were significant numbers of crossover Republicans

who voted for Joe Biden in 2020. So what we might be seeing is some of those same people, once again, voting against Donald Trump in a primary. We also might just be seeing kind of protest votes. Like, you know, in the Democratic side, in Michigan, you had a bunch of people voting uncommitted to protest the war in Gaza. when a lot of them might ultimately vote for Biden in general election. So we don't know exactly what it means, but, you know, he would much rather have not lost those votes.

Like, it could be a sign of weakness. Well, I know Dan does Polarcoaster on Podza of America's YouTube channel, but there is a chasm right now where it looks like there's a chasm between the tight polling that we're seeing on a national level. Like all these polls are like 44 to 45, Trump's leading by a point, Biden's leading by a point, Trump's leading by two points. So there's a chasm between these polls and also the reality of, of what these primary elections show, which is, you know, that Trump is losing, like, huge swaths of his own base. So what's your take on the polling heading toward November on the Republican side?

I mean, I think, look, this is hard for people like us, for your viewers to kind of fathom. But, like, compared to most people in this country, we are space aliens. Oh, free, total free. We think about, we obsess about politics all day, every day. Most people think about it for, like, a couple minutes a month. Yeah. Right? So most people aren't paying attention.

they maybe are just figuring out. It sounds so healthy. It sounds so nice. They're just figuring out that there's going to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. So I think the key point is that the electorate in a primary is just radically different than a general election. You have much more casual voters turning out in a general election. I think the electorate's like 50% bigger, basically. So my take is that I think the election is a toss-up.

It's basically 50-50 this week. there was a set of swing state polls out from Bloomberg. They did not look great for Joe Biden. I think he was down in six of seven states. But we got a lot of time. Joe Biden's got a lot of money. Donald Trump's stuck in a courtroom. So, you know, this is why you run a campaign and win them back. To that point then, there's going to be a lot of low information voters. And I mean that in the sense that like those people who aren't paying attention right now, who will find out in October that, you know, when they tune in, that Donald Trump may very well be a convicted felon. How much of an impact do you think that that's going to have on these regular people. I mean, these, you know, soft Republican voters,

these suburban moms, the independents out there. Yeah, I mean, we know from polling that opinions vary on the multiple court, the multiple indictments that Trump is facing, right? Some people think that certain cases are more serious than others, but we also know that a conviction for a felony is a big deal for a majority of voters in this country. And so if Trump is a convicted felon when people go into the voting booths in November, that will undoubtedly be a factor in influencing the outcome. Yeah, and I mean, he's going to stand there and try to like qualify it by saying, well, no, this is only a felony for, for, you know, defrauding like this and that. And that's going to, if he's sitting there trying to explain to people why actually this isn't so bad because this is just a felony for this, as opposed to a felony for this, I feel like that's like him on his back feet like that is not going to be this position that he wants to be in. Yeah, he's got basically two plays right now.

The first is just pray to God that he can find one juror who is a Trump superfan who will not vote to convict under any circumstances and just have a hung jury, right, and play for time that way. The other plan is just to do what we see him do every day, which is spin and spin and spin, called this a Biden prosecution, say the system is rigged, the system is unfair, you know, this is all about punishing Biden's political enemies and try to frame the debate to make it so that any outcome is seen as illegitimate. Now, Donald Trump is, look, I don't like the guy, but he's an incredibly powerful messenger, right? He's a propagandist. He picks a message and he repeats it over and over and over again, and that's all it takes to be effective, right? It doesn't have to be smart or savvy or accurate. It just needs repetition. So we'll see if he is able to pre-cook the outcome of this trial in public opinion, but I don't know.

I mean, the facts are going to be pretty damning. Yeah, I mean, either way. Even if he can draw most of those people back in, there's still going to be a certain subset of people who are going to defect away from him just by virtue of the fact that now you have to pull the lever for a convicted felon or for Joe Biden. And that's, you know, even if he, even if he loses some percent, I mean, you know, Biden won Georgia by 12,000 votes. He won Wisconsin by 20,000 votes. These are small margins. So, so small. The margins are so tight. And also, it's just going to be a question of issue salience at the end, right? If on election day, everyone is talking about immigration and crime and areas where Donald Trump is strong, he's probably going to win.

If on election day, everyone is talking about abortion access. If we're talking about this draconian law in Arizona that was passed in the 1860s that criminalizes like all abortions, right? Like that is the ground that Joe Biden wants to be on. And that's where I think we can turn out the voters we need to win. And to that point, he's actually undermining his own party because all he's talking about, all he's capable of talking about is his own. own prosecution. And so, you know, it would actually be better for him to take this time, even when he's doing his little like mid-trial press conferences or post-trial press conferences to try to pivot to those issues, but he can't. He's physically incapable of not talking about himself and his own

victimhood. And so because he's such an egomaniacal narcissist, this is what it's going to look like at the end of the day. Yeah, if Donald Trump could just stop ranting and raving about himself, stop complaining about the 2020 election and saying it was rigged, he would be in such a better place politically, but he cannot help himself. He has made the entire party, you know, contort itself around this election lie. And, you know, to get a Trump endorsement, you have to support it. To, you know, be the head of the RNC, you have to come out full-throated in support of the election lie. So, like, he is shaping the party. He's bending the party to his will. And I think it could damage the entire Republican brand. And actually, we have information that would kind of bear that out.

If you look at the 2022 midterms, Republicans actually over-perferferral. You looked at regular Republicans who ran in New York, for example. They were able to flip a handful of seats. It was the Republicans who ran in the mold of Donald Trump who got creamed at the ballot box, like Doug Maastriano, Kerry Lake, Herschel Walker, Dr. Oz, Don Boldick, all of these people who ran, like, as these America First, Trump acolytes, they were the ones who lost. I mean, they lost even in races where they should have won. They lost in statewide races where their normal, quote unquote, normal Republican counterparts did succeed.

succeed. And so it was just, it was basically like a perfect test case where it showed how little salience these, these specific Trump, you know, America first candidates had. Yeah, man. I mean, look, Trump is a unique political figure in our history. He is one of one. He was on the apprentice for years and years. He is famous. He has a brand that's internationally known. He's one of the most famous people in the world. He has been able to defy political gravity in ways that no other candidate has before him, that is just not going to happen for like the random guy running for the Pennsylvania House District, right? Like if you are just a kooky election denier, if you have a, if you believe that all abortions should be outlawed, regardless of rape or incest, like voters

do not support those kinds of candidates. They actually end up usually going for the more moderate candidates, but Trump is not letting those candidates get out of the primaries. Right. Right. And now, and what we're left with now is like Carrie Lake running for U.S. Senate in Arizona. And and people in, you know, kind of in that exact same mold. Strap it on her Glock. That's right. Okay, Tommy, TikTok being banned if Bight Dance doesn't divest was part of that $95 billion aid package that went to Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel. Did, like, can you talk about what the implications of that are going to be?

And also, you know, I know there's a lot of, there's a lot of heat right now on the government for moving forward to do that. But didn't China ban Facebook and Instagram and also Twitter? Yeah, I mean, you can't use basically. any U.S. social media apps in China. They're all banned. I think Facebook has been blocked since 2009. Twitter around the same time, Instagram was blocked in 2014, right? So, you know, if we're looking, if you're judging this on sort of equity and fairness and how these two countries treat each other, like we're kind of getting to even here. I think what's going to happen next is there will be a legal challenge by TikTok.

They've already announced that. Yeah. So we'll see how that plays out. But the two options ultimately will be if this bill comes to fruition is some sort of divestment. So you'll have like kind of a U.S. only subsidiary of TikTok or bite dance just says to hell with America, like we're pulling out. And it's just no longer available in the app store. Man, the thing that scares me is one of the groups that had come forward was this group put together by Steve Mnuchin, who is Trump's former Treasury Secretary, who was interested in buying this thing. So we have Elon who's bought Twitter and basically just kind of tanked it and elevated all of these literal neo-Nazis on that site.

Obviously, Facebook has a long history of being terrible for democracy. And now we have TikTok who, like, I don't know, under the guise of trying to protect America from some subversive entity, we may see it fall into the hands of an even worse, even more subversive entity in a group by Steve Mnuchin. Yeah, it's not great when your choices for who controls the TikTok algorithm are the Chinese Chinese Communist Party and Steve Mnukin with like what, probably some Saudi money. Yeah. Listen, I also just want to say, I mean, I feel really bad for people who spend a lot of time on TikTok, who love it, who built a business on TikTok, who built a big following.

And now I feel like the rugs getting pulled out from under them. That absolutely sucks. As someone who spent years and years and years on Twitter and then watched Elon Musk take it over and completely ruin the place, like I feel your pain. It absolutely sucks. So I really, really hope that TikTok gets offloaded to. some sort of U.S. subsidiary that isn't Steve Mnuchin or insert your other Trump's dude here. What about the impact do you think that this is going to have on young people? Like, do you worry that because the buck stops with Biden, Biden's the president right now,

that young people are going to view him as the guy who banned their favorite app? Yeah, I think they will. I mean, listen, Trump tried to ban TikTok. Yeah. On the way out the door, he put out this executive order that essentially was an attempt to force a sale. He is now trying to say, you know, I think he tweeted something that's like, young people, please note that Joe Biden is the one who banned TikTok, right? So he's doing his usually, per usual, very subtle politics from Donald Trump. I do, look, I do think people will

blame Joe Biden for banning TikTok because he's the guy who banned TikTok. But it won't go into effect until after the election. There is this off-ramp with the sale to a domestic subsidiary. And look, look, we just don't know. I mean, for every young person that's really mad about a TikTok ban, there might be some parents out there who are pretty psyched about it. So we'll find out. Tommy, where can we see and hear more from you? Look, we're a tiny little progressive media company like you. We are trying to get people good information through this election cycle at a time when it's

harder than ever to find credible, quality, accurate information. So if people will just subscribe to the Pod Save America podcast wherever you get your podcast, that would be amazing. So thank you. Well, and we'll put the link right here on the screen if you're watching on YouTube and in the post description of this video. if you are listening on the podcast. Tommy, thanks so much, man. It was fun. Thanks for having me. Thanks again to Tommy. That's it for this episode. Talk to you next week.

You've been listening to No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen. Produced by Sam Graber, music by Wellesie, and interviews edited for YouTube by Nicholas Nicotera. If you want to support the show, please subscribe on your preferred podcast app and leave a five-star rating in a review. And as always, you can find me at Brian Tyler Cohen on all of my other channels, or you can go to Brian Tyler Cohen.com to learn more.