No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen - Trump loses the government shutdown messaging war

Episode Date: October 5, 2025

Trump and Republicans have officially lost the messaging war on the ongoing government shutdown. Brian interviews Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ro Khanna, and Tommy Vietor to talk about why the shutdown is going poorly for the GOPShop merch: https://briantylercohen.com/shopYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/briantylercohenTwitter: https://twitter.com/briantylercohenFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/briantylercohenInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/briantylercohenPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/briantylercohenNewsletter: https://www.briantylercohen.com/sign-upWritten by Brian Tyler CohenProduced by Sam GraberRecorded in Los Angeles, CASee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Donald Trump and Republicans have officially lost the messaging war on the ongoing government shutdown. And I've got four interviews this week. I'm joined by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Rokana, and Tommy Vitor to talk about why the shutdown is going poorly for the GOP. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen, and you're listening to No Lie. So I think we can definitively say by now that the ongoing government shutdown has proven a massive liability and a political loser for the GOP. And now we've got proof. According to Kaiser Family Foundation polling, Americans want Congress to extend the expiring Affordable Care Act credits by a staggering 78 to 22% margin.

Nearly 8 in 10 Americans side with the Democrats here. And the reason why is beyond simple. If Republicans get their way, the ACA subsidies will expire at the end of this year, and that means that for the 24 million Americans who get their health care through the ACA marketplace, prices will increase up to four times what they are right now, four times more expensive. Senator Warnock has been sharing screen grabs from his constituents showing the difference between 2025 prices and 2026 prices. One tweet he shared shows $307 turning into 964. Another one shows 228, turning into 1,142. So like, unless your entire identity is just blindly supporting

whatever Trump says, his every whim, or just, I don't know, trafficking in chaos, I cannot imagine who is out there rooting for health care prices to go through the roof. And so the Democrats' position is this. They are using what little leverage they've got, knowing that Republicans will need seven Democratic votes in the Senate to force this issue. They will not budge unless the Republicans restore these ACA subsidies, which puts Republicans in a bad position for two reasons. First, the longer this shutdown goes on, the more people learn that this is why.

Like, the left for once is beating the right on messaging, probably because the right knows their position here sucks. And so every single day, more and more people everywhere in this country are learning that this whole thing is about Republicans trying to raise health care prices and Democrats trying to keep them where they're at right now. And by the way, Republicans already poll underwater on health care. So this is just solidifying their already dismal branding on this issue. But the second reason that this is bad is because in a normal world, Republicans would see how bad this is and they would just cut bait, right? But this isn't a normal world. This is a world where Donald Trump views any capitulation whatsoever as weakness

and there is nothing worse than being viewed as weak. And so the GOP is going to dig in its heels because, God forbid, they ever admit fault. And in doing so, they're just prolonging the pain. Because every day they allow this to continue is another day that, more people learn that this whole thing is happening because the GOP isn't getting their wish of fucking over regular people for the crime of wanting affordable health care. So let's fast forward here to the possible solutions. How does this thing end? Frankly, as far as Republicans are concerned, the two options are just bad and worse. So the bad option is that

they let this thing drag out for a little bit before realizing that this is a losing battle and they cut their losses, which means they extend the ACA subsidies and health care prices stay largely the same. Either that's voted on immediately or they can guarantee some assurance that it's voted on before the end of the year, but functionally, it'll mean the status quo remains in place. The other option that's worse for Republicans is that they opt not to play ball. So why is that worse? Because not only will they position themselves on the 80 side of this 80-20 issue, but think about the political consequences of letting these ACA subsidies lapse and going into an election year, with 24 million Americans watching their health care premiums surge.

Like, you don't have to be a political genius to understand why that would be, and I'm going to use this word advisedly, catastrophic for Republicans. Granted, that's not without some downside for the Democrats, too, because if that second option happens, that will mean that the Democrats capitulated and allowed the government to reopen without holding the line on this issue. And I'm sorry, but that would be insane. Like Democrats already have a major, major issue looking weak, and if ever there was a time to stand strong and to hold the line, it is on an issue that 78% of Americans agree with them on, including 92% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans. There is no reason to give in on this issue from a political perspective, a moral perspective, and a brand perspective.

So I don't know exactly when this will be resolved, but I can say, with certainty that having a Republican Party led by an obtuse man-child only suggests that they're going to dig in on the single most unpopular issue of this election cycle, all because Donald Trump's ego is apparently more important than the health care of tens of millions of Americans and the re-election prospects of Trump's own party. So this is going to be an interesting test for the rest of the GOP, who's going to watch their own brands tank thanks to Trump's defiance here, whether any of them grow enough of a spine to even help their own reelection prospects remains to be seen, but if the last decade has shown us anything, it's that we probably

shouldn't expect too much pressure to come from a political party with the collective spine of a bowl of jello. Next up are my interviews with Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Rokana, and Tommy V. Tor. No lie is brought to you by Everyday Dose. Now look, everybody wants to be healthy. Everybody has vitamins and supplements that they take to help aid them along the way, but those supplement stacks are expensive and they're hard to keep up with. Everyday dose is affordable and covers all of your bases in a cup of coffee. It takes 30 seconds to make and you get coffee plus

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Thanks so much for joining me. My pleasure. So I want to talk about the shutdown that we're in right now. Republicans are trying to make this about anything other than what it actually is about. They're trying to talk about immigrants. they're trying to talk about trans people. What is this shutdown at the end of the day ultimately about? I think you hit the nail on the head.

They are doing everything that they can to avoid the basic issue. And the basic issue is if the Republican legislation were passed, 15 million Americans would lose their health insurance. 15 million would lose their health insurance because of massive cuts to Medicaid and the affordable care. And Brian, there are studies out there from Yale and University of, of Pennsylvania that suggests that some 50,000 Americans every year would die unnecessarily. Because that's what happens when you throw 15 million low-income and working-class people

off their health care. That's number one. Number two, if the Republican bill goes through at a time when the cost of health care in America is outrageously high, premiums for 24 million Americans would double, double, on average, sometimes more, sometimes less. Nobody in America can't afford that. So those are some of the major issues that we're struggling with right now. Republicans are trying to make this about immigrants using federal funds to get health care. So first and foremost, as clear as we can make this, is there any way that federal funds could subsidize even to the tune of a dollar health care for undocumented immigrants? The law is very clear.

Undocumented people cannot access Medicaid, Medicare, or the Affordable Care Act. End of discussion. So what Republicans are doing and what demagogues always do is they deflect attention from the regional issue, which is that our health care system is broken and they're going to make it a lot worse and then to finding some kind of politically weak minority of people whom you blame for all the problems facing society. Nothing new.

That's what demagogues always do. They are lying. This bill will impact 24 million Americans doubling their health insurance premiums. Well, you know, I guess in their effort to backtrack, we've seen some messaging now spearheaded by J.D. Vance that says, okay, well, actually, money is fungible. And so if you give any funding for anything, earmarked for any federal program,

because a dollar is a dollar, because all money is green, how do we really know that any money that was supposed to go to one thing isn't ultimately going towards subsidizing undocumented immigrants' health care in state exchanges? And so just on a general sense, look, I'm under no illusion that Democrats are masters of messaging. But when you have the Republican vice president who is leaning on the argument that money is fungible, what does that say about the effectiveness of the message that they're trying to convey right now? Look, they are lying all of the time. Look, you just put yourself in the place of a Republican member of Congress. You got to go home. And a constituent say, Mr. Congressman, why did you vote to double my health care premiums? I can't afford that. And we're hearing that from we just sent out an email recently. We're going to

hundreds and hundreds of people all over the country saying just that they are on the defensive. What polling suggests is that the people are holding Republicans accountable for the shutdown for good reasons. So they're going to say anything, but I think they are on the ropes right now and I think we've got to remain strong. Senator, can you explain a little bit of, I know I'm asking you to do the impossible by getting into Republicans' heads, but what is going through their mind in terms of stripping health care? way. This is, Republicans control the House. They control the Senate. They control the White House. The biggest, the states with the biggest enrollment in, in, in the Affordable Care Act over the

last five years, far and away have been Republican states. We're talking Tennessee, West Virginia, Texas. On average, the states that voted for Donald Trump in 2024 have seen 157 percent increase in ACA enrollment. States that voted for Kamala Harrison 24 saw 36 percent increase. So the new adoptees are largely in red states. This is going to hurt them. And so what is the, what's the mindset here for these Republicans who are, who are trying their level best to make sure that this actually goes through? Well, there are a couple of things.

The major goal here is part of Trump's big, beautiful bill, which is what we're talking about, was to give a trillion dollars in tax breaks to the 1%. That was the main thing. And that has to do with a corrupt campaign finance system. Elon Musk puts $290 million into Trump's campaign. Other billionaires put money into Trump's campaign, Republican campaigns. They want to be repaid. And the way you repay them is through massive tax breaks.

So that's number one. Number two, it is no secret that Republicans do not like public insurance programs, right? Over the years, they've tried to privatize Social Security. They want to privatize Medicare. want to privatize Medicaid, they want to privatize the Veterans Administration. So you've got a two for here. If you cut back on funding for Medicaid, you can give tax breaks to the very rich and move along toward the privatization of public health in general. Right. That makes perfect sense. You know, is there no irony in the fact that really at the end of the day, what Democrats

are trying to do right now is, and I get the incentive for them. to want to do this to be able to offset some money for their tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires and to be able to expedite the process of basically dismantling any government-run healthcare because they want everything privatized, whether it's Medicare, Medicaid, the post office, the VA, you name it. But politically speaking, is there no irony in the fact that really what Democrats are looking to do is save Republicans from themselves? Because if we enter 2026 with health care premiums that double and triple. And you've got Republicans who control the House, control the Senate and control the White House. They are going to be the ones that

are largely to blame for what's happening. And so the Democrats are sticking their necks out to protect Republicans here, electorally speaking. Well, I wouldn't look at it like that. I would say that if the Democrats cave now, if the Democrats cave now, if the Democrats cave now, they will look very bad going into 20, 26. I think you've got to look at the totality of what's happening right now. So it is not just the health care crisis that the Republicans are making worse. It is a very rapid movement toward an authoritarian society that Trump is pushing every single day. So by the way, is part of any agreement that would be reached. It's not only to roll back these rate increases, make sure that 15 million people don't lose their health

insurance. It is to do, among other things, to not allow Trump's administration to deny funding that has already been appropriated by Congress. You've read recently, for example, they're holding back on billions and billions of dollars going to blue states. That is illegal. It is outrageous. It is unconscionable. We've got to deal without reality right now. You're saying, ICE acting illegally all over this country in terms of how they're treating undocumented people and American citizens. You're seeing military, American military troops in cities all over this country. You're seeing Trump, FCC guy, threatening people that if you say things that we don't like, we can pull your license. So how do you not respond to all of that stuff? Policy-wise,

you have got to. What we are doing right now is not only fighting to protect health care of the American people. We are fighting to prevent this country to move, move toward totalitarianism. From a political point of view, if we were to fold now, how do you think people would feel going into the 2026 elections? Right. Right. We're going to vote to the Democrats. You guys can't fight. This is the moment because we have leverage. How do we have leverage? Senate rules require 60 votes. What is happening now in an unprecedented way, Brian. I think a lot of people don't understand this, is that the republics, when you need 60 votes by definition, it has got to be bipartisan. The 53 Republicans, 47 people in Democratic caucus, they've got to talk. Republicans are

refusing to do that. So we got some leverage now. We've got to utilize that leverage. Senator, what incentive is there for Trump to even make a deal, knowing that by not making a deal, he gets to have what he wants on the health care front, which is, to strip that health care away so that he can offset that money for tax cuts. And, as you were saying before, exacerbate the demise of public health care. Oh, he has a huge incentive. Well, at the same time, he also benefits from the fact that now he views himself as unburdened, unleashed when it comes to being able to fire people, when it became a thrust vote.

No, no, no, no. That's what they believe in day one. What do ingaulge was about? You didn't even have been shut down to do that. Yeah. Look, they don't believe in the constitution. They don't believe in the rule of law. So they do what they do with or without a government shutdown.

What is Trump's incentive to reach an agreement? I will tell you very frankly. Here's Republicans. You are a Republican member of Congress. You're going home. You really want to defend a doubling of health care premiums. You really want to tell you your constituents, I'm sorry that you lost your health care and you may die because you can't get to a darker.

I would not like to do that. That is a terrible political position to be in. So what all the polling suggests is people correctly are holding Republicans accountable. People do not want to see a doubling in their health insurance. They don't want to see 15 million people thrown off a health care or to give tax breaks to the billionaire class. So I think we are in a very, very strong position. And I hope very much the Democrats hold strong on this. Can you talk for a moment about the depravity of the fact that, you know, these Republicans were so hell-bent on making sure that they don't have to take responsibility for their,

own policy decision. And so in order to kind of insulate themselves, they're saying, okay, you know what? It's not that, you know, we have a billionaire in Donald Trump who's trying to strip your health care away because he doesn't care about ACA sub-dise. What you should really be worried about is this completely bogus made-up notion that illegal brown people over here are why you're not getting your health care. And so as long as they can deflect the blame off of themselves, onto people who, by the way, don't even benefit from the thing that they're claiming they benefit from, which is, you know, subsidized health care. Taxes, by the way, for programs they can't benefit.

Correct. Let's back it up here a little bit. Okay. Trump is a demagogue. Demagoguery, sadly, is an international phenomenon. It is not a new phenomenon. And what demagoguery is all about is exactly what you described. It is ignoring the major issue.

issues facing our society, income and wealth inequality, the march toward oligarchy, a collapsing healthcare system. Let's be clear, by the way, as somebody who strongly believes in Medicare for all, before Trump, before this whole business, the American health care system was a disaster. They were now taking it over the edge. Education system is in trouble. We got climate change out there. So that we got enormous crises facing this country in the world. What then the dogs do is they find a minority group politically powerless, there's a course. Maybe it's the Jews. Maybe it's the blacks. Maybe it's Latinos. Maybe it's the gays. You pick them. Different countries, different people. Same old bloody thing.

You pick a helpless, politically powerless minority. You blame them for all of the problems facing society and the rich debt richer. And our job is to do exactly the opposite. is to focus on the real issues facing this country, bring people together, not let Trump divide us up. But your point is very important, but I don't want you to think it's just Trump. This is what demagogicals over the world do. This is what demigarchs historically have done.

Pick on a helpless minority. Trans people, undocumented people, God knows who are people. I remember, you know, 60, 70 years ago, they would tell the white workers in Mississippi, you know. You blacks can drink at a water fountain, right? Isn't that fantastic? Now, meanwhile, there's white guys that be made the lowest wages in the world. Got it?

Yeah, the folks, you can drink at a water fountain. You're better than a black guy who can't drink at a water fountain. That's what Deva Godreel is about. Right. It's just pitting working class people against other working class people so that no one is paying attention to the millionaires and billionaires up top who are fucking everybody over. And we're getting richer in.

and who have never ever had it so good. Here's the point. People on top, the Musk, the Bezos, the Zuckerbergs, they're making money hand over fist. You've got Musk owning himself more wealth in the bottom, 52% of American households. Do you hear much discussion about that? Not at all.

Do you hear any discussion about that? No. It's the undocumented fault. So our job, focus on the real issues, bring people together, come up with rural solutions, which in health care, on my mind, is Medicare for all, guarantee health care of all people's the human rights, et cetera. And last question, and I want to ask it on exactly that.

For so long, we have relied on incremental changes to not just our health care system, but especially our health care system. And so do you think at this particular moment where we have seen the vulnerability of the health care system as it stands right now, we've seen the extent to which regular working class Americans are not benefiting from this system and, in fact, are getting screwed over by the system. Do you think there would be an appetite to actually move toward Medicare for all as we head toward 2028? All right. Take a deep breath. The answer is yes. Take a deep breath. Today, forget Trump. Forget the big beautiful bill. Forget raising premiums by double.

Forget throwing 15 million people off health care. Before all of that, you got 85 million people uninsured or underinsured. We're paying the highest prices in the world by far over 14, thousand dollars for a man, woman, and child. We don't have enough doctors, nurses, dentists, medical professionals in general. Our life expectancy is lower than any other major country. And if you're working class, you're living six years, seven years shorter than the top one percent. Does that sound like a system that's working to you? No, not particularly. It's a totally broken system. And what we need is a simple system, which guarantees health, care to all people, expand Medicare to call to everybody, no out-of-pocket expenses.

This is more or less what exists in every other major country on earth. We can do it as well. Perfectly put. We'll leave it there. Senator Sanders, thank you for your clarity on this issue in particular, and thanks for taking the time today. My pleasure. Keep up to good work.

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first subscription order. That's A.RMRA.com slash BTC. I'm joined now by Senator Elizabeth Warren. Thanks so much for joining me. Thank you for having me. Always good to see you. So we are heading headfirst right now into the prospect of a government shutdown. So first and foremost, given the Democrats limited leverage, can you talk about what they're seeking to do with what little leverage they do have as far as health care is concerned, as far as these ACA subsidies are concerned? So you have to remember, we don't have much power, but we do have some power. And this particular sliver of leverage is that to get a budget passed or to get a so-called continuing resolution, another form of budget, short-term budget passed, take 60 votes in the Senate. And the Republicans

don't have 60 votes. So they got to come to the Democrats. What the Democrats are saying is if you want our votes, then you've got to be willing to roll back some of those cuts to health care that you put in place all by Republicans, no Democrats voted for it, that you put in place last spring because what's about to happen is about 15 million people are about to lose their access to health care. And pretty much everybody in the country who has health insurance is about to see their premiums go somewhere from 75% higher to doubling. And that's going to mean a lot of people in this country who suffer, who are making choices like, do I eat or do I have health insurance?

It also has this horrible impact on the whole health care system. Rural hospitals are already starting to shut down because they can't handle the uncompensated care. Community health centers, they're starting. to pull out so that there will be virtually nobody who's not a billionaire who will not be affected by the health care cuts the Republicans have put in place. So all the Democrats are asking for is if you want us to be a part of funding this government going forward, you've got to give us roll back some of that stuff you've done

on health care. And you've got to make some assurances here that you won't agree to it. And then you'll turn around a week from now and roll back again and just do what's called a rescission and take it all back again. So that's all we're looking for. We want to get rid of those health care cuts and we want to make sure that the health care access sticks. Why is that such a non-starter for Republicans recognizing, recognizing, and I think this is an important point to note, that as far as the ACA enrollment is concerned, the places where we've seen the biggest jump in ACA enrollment is mostly red states. We've seen Texas enrollment grow by 255 percent, and this is since 2020, Mississippi

grow by 242 percent, Louisiana and West Virginia grow by 234 percent, Georgia by 227, Tennessee by 221. These are largely Republican states that are going to feel the brunt of this. So what is, like, why not relent on this issue that is overwhelmingly going to help red states? So I think there are two answers to this. One answer is just straightforward.

And that is last spring when they were negotiating the deal. They wanted to do a trillion, that's with a T, a trillion dollars in tax cuts for a handful of billionaires and multi, multi-millionaires and billionaire corporations. And because they had other stuff running in there,

they were going to run up the federal deficit by trillions more. So they looked around and they said, okay, where can we cut? And they decided the place they could cut was on health care. So the money that's being taken out of the health care system, no surprise, is right at a trillion dollars. and that's the money that's going over the billionaires. But, you know, I want to make a related point. It's definitely about the money,

and they just didn't want to have to face the fact that they would be upping the deficit even more. So that was part of it. But you know what part of this is? It's a fundamental question of do you want a government that works for people? And if you really think that the job of government is just to help out the billionaires

and keep the masses quiet enough that they will work in your fulfillment centers and pave your roads and mow your lawns and not raise any problems. If you think that is the role of government, then the Trump administration is for you because that's the direction they're pushing everything they can. But if you genuinely think that the role of government is to be on the side of people

and to try to help build a safety net for folks so that if your grandma outlives her savings and has to be in a nursing home or your cousin has a baby that runs up a million dollars in medical bills in the first month or your neighbor gets hit by a bus and needs a wheelchair, or a home health aid, that we can be there for each other. And government is the way to do that. So I think it's both things. They wanted to be able to give that money to the billionaires, but I think also they don't want government to work for families.

And health care is a place, geez, what's so ironic here? The health care system's already broken, right? Already not working. And their answer is, make it work. less. Make it more painful for people, make it more costly for people, make more people say government is not on my side. That's what the Republicans want. Right. So they can use that as a pretext to say this way we should privatize everything. We should privatize Social Security. We should privatize the post office, not have to pay for anything, not have to worry

about spending federal revenues on these pesty little projects. This way we can keep giving ourselves tax cuts and not feel like we have to offset it with something. That's right. That's right. It's a big plan here. Yep. Trump will push back on this and has pushed back on this and has come out and said, you know what the Democrats want?

They want health care for illegals. And so can I get a very clear explanation of the reality here in terms of what Democrats are pushing for with these ACA subsidies and whether undocumented immigrants are even eligible for ACA subsidies? So can we just start with Trump's statement is a lie? Federal law is absolutely clear the number of undocumented people here in the United States who are getting assistance from Medicaid or from the ACA is exactly zero. It is not legal right now.

That's it. Nothing more. And every time Donald Trump tries to run this play, we should all just look up and say, liar, liar, liar, because that's what's happening here. And it's one more effort to distract people. Understand this. Not everybody who has Medicaid actually realizes it's Medicaid. In different states, it's called different things.

In Oklahoma, it's called Sooner Care. In Massachusetts, it's called MassHealth. I just learned that in Vermont, it's called Dr. Dinosaur. Go figure that one out. But the point is, it's called something different. it's still the same federal progress. So there are a lot of folks who don't realize that this cut that is barreling toward them is actually going to hit them smack in the head or hit people they love,

people they care about smack in the head. And that's exactly what Donald Trump and the Republicans are counting on, that they're not going to have to pay a price, that, yeah, life will get tougher for you, but no one's ever going to be able to pin it on Trump and the Republicans. How is this not a win-win for Trump? Because he's come out, and I'm going to throw to a clip right now, of some of the things that he said Republicans are able to do if and when we do actually get to a shutdown. I say about the state of the Democrat Party, when they have a 33% of favorability rating

on average in recent months, and they're willing to shut down the government over our healthcare. They are shutting it down. We're not shutting it down. We don't want it to shut down because we have the greatest period of time ever. I told you, we have $17 trillion being invested. And so the last person that wants to shut down is us now. With that being said, we can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them and irreversible by them, like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like.

And you all know, you all know Russell vote, he's become very popular recently because he can trim the budget to a level that you couldn't do any other way. So they're taking a risk by having a shutdown. because because of the shutdown, we can do things medically and other ways, including benefits. We can cut large numbers of people. We don't want to do that, but we don't want fraud, waste, and abuse. And, you know, we're cutting that. So right there, he's basically saying that a shutdown would enable him to make deeper cuts, to fire more people, to be more surgical in the ways that he wants to continue to gut the federal government.

So on one hand, he notches a win if the government. shuts down because there's no oversight, as if there's really any oversight now on him as it is, but there's no oversight from Congress or anybody else, and more power is consolidated into the executive branch. And on the flip side, I mean, like, he really doesn't, you know, he doesn't benefit much by doing any of that. So what incentive is there for him to actually make a deal with the Democrats here? If he, if he will consolidate more power and notch more wins by virtue of it shutting down. So that clip says everything you really need to know about Donald Trump, right?

He's saying we could hurt even more people. And Democrats are the ones who don't want to hurt people. So we're going to hurt Democrats by hurting working people all across this country. And we've got a whole lot of ways to do it. I got a couple of responses to that. The first one is they're already doing it. And there aren't stops on this government right now. look, the courts are doing their best in some places, but so far the Supreme Court just seems to

give a pass every time. But I see it exactly in reverse here. And that is, there comes a time you've got to stand up and fight back. You just can't say anymore that we are going to lie down and let Donald Trump do whatever he wants. Look, it's been nine months now. And things have not gotten better. He never reached a point where he said, you know what, I got enough now. I have imposed enough pain on people. I have gotten enough crypto dollars. I have helped out my billionaire donors. There is no enough for this man. So this is the fight. This is the fight to pick right now. The fight over health care for millions of Americans, the fight that will touch every single person in our country and to stand up and show that we can fight. Because here's the risk that

Donald Trump runs. We stand up and fight back. We push back. We make clear that this is Donald Trump and the Senate Republicans and the House Republicans shut down and that everything that is not working is not working because of them, all of a sudden the world starts to look different. Because understand, we watch Donald Trump just go on and on, but he is not indifferent to hearing that people don't like what he's doing. Remember last April? He was doing all the tariff stuff and all of a sudden the stock market went down and he said, whoa, not so much, right? He decides he's going to go invade and then, whoa, he gets pushback and he decides, maybe he's not going to Chicago. Maybe he's going to pull and try to do it another way. He is listening. So this is the moment.

I know you hear this all the time. You know, call your senator, call your rep, call the White House, talk to each other, put it out online. But it really is. Because if we could come together and push back, If we can get a win here on health care, if we can show that we fight and that we know how to stick together, that we know how to bruise them over trying to pose this kind of pain on the American people, that's when we start to take our country back. That's when we start to make this democracy work again. That's when we start to put checks and balances back in place. whatever you are most aggrieved about that Donald Trump has done, fighting back starts with coming together in a big joint fight and winning. And I think the health care fight is exactly the right place to do that. And finally, let's end off with this. You know, there is still a

not insignificant, a non-zero faction of Democrats who are in support of a shutdown. believe it's like a third of Democrats, two thirds of Democrats are against the prospect of a shutdown. And I think that there are plenty of examples of why that would be so dangerous. But for those last third, can you talk about just some specific instances? And Trump alluded to this in the clip that I showed you before. But it's also, he's not a trustworthy narrator. And so he will just say whatever, you know, errant synaps fires in his brain and words fall out of his face. What kind of power does have in the event that a shutdown does occur and that Democrats, even from the minority, no longer have any say on anything because Congress is no longer in session?

So that's a really difficult question. And the reason it's difficult is we have no precedent here. Always before we have had presidents who were willing to follow the law. We now have somebody who says, you know, if he's got a hammer, he can break anything. he wants. And that Democrats have no power to stop him. Hell, Republicans have no power. It seems to stop him. So we're living with a guy right now who thinks he can fire anybody and a Supreme Court so far that when the cases have bubbled up to them, have said, you know what, go ahead and fire those folks while we decide whether or not it's actually legal to do that. I have to say, I take his argument that he can do so much more as nothing more than an empty threat at this

point. Donald Trump doesn't feel bound by the oversight of Democrats in Congress. He doesn't feel bound by the laws that are written on the books. He doesn't feel bound by the advice of his own lawyers, if there are any still around, who are willing to say to him, Mr. President, what you're doing here is not legal. He doesn't feel bound by any of that. I think that means it is time to wage a fight. And the fight has to be all of us. The fight has to be the giant pushback to say Donald Trump, the people are not with you on this and not not with you by a little bit, not with you by a lot because the people of America think that it is wrong to give a trillion dollars in tax breaks to your billionaire friends and to take that money away from little babies who need

health care and seniors who need nursing homes that we are willing to stand up and fight for our values. That's where the power is and I think it's about time to show that to Donald Trump. We'll leave it there. Senator Warren, thanks so much for the time. You bet. It's so good to see you. No Lai is brought to you by prize picks. You and I make decisions every day, but on prize picks, being right can get you paid. Don't miss any of the excitement this season on prize picks where it's good to be right. Now, I watch football every weekend, also every Thursday, every Monday.

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and sign up today. Download the app today and use code BTC to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. That's code BTC to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. Prize picks. It's good to be right. I'm joined now by Congressman Rokana. Thanks for joining me. Thank you, Brian. Thanks for having me on. So we have seen kind of a scheme unfold in real time in terms of preventing what would have been the adoption of a discharge petition that would have compelled the release of the Epstein files. Now, Mike Johnson's figured out a way to maneuver around that. Can you explain where we are in terms of this scandal at the hands of Mike Johnson? Well, he's refusing to seat Adelita Grijalva, who won her seat in Arizona.

By the way, she didn't win a squeaker. She won 69% to 30%. And he's trying to delay. But there's been so much pressure on him. And this is where people's voices matter. Then now he's saying, okay, I'm going to swear her in when we next during session. That will be October 7th. And if he follows through, that means she gets warning. She signs the discharge petition. She says it's the first thing she's going to do, number 218. And then we have seven legislative days that have to pass and we get a vote.

It will be the first time, Brian, in the history of Donald Trump, since this first term, that a Republican Congress will be forcing a vote against him, I believe we're going to get an overwhelming vote once there's actually on the floor, 40 to 50 Republicans standing up against him. And that will be sent shockwaves across Washington and across the country. Where do you draw the confidence from, given the fact that we've only seen four Republicans thus far sign their names onto the discharge petition? Well, they have shown a lot of courage because they're getting bullied by the White House. They're getting bullied by everyone, and they've stopped to it.

But the reason I'm competent is once there's an actual vote saying, do you want to have a full release of the Epstein files? Voting no on that is a pretty hard vote and actually could cost you your seat in some places. And so I think once we get it to a vote, the speaker is able to tell Toronto, look, I tried everything. Now we've got to try to block it in the Senate, and a lot of Republicans will vote for it. The beauty of this issue for us is that we're standing with survivors. It's the right thing to do. We're protecting children. But we're also showing that it's not just that we're against Donald Trump.

Now we're on the side of the people reeling against the system. Many of them voted for Trump because they thought Trump was going to take on the system. And now we're saying, no, actually, he's part of the problem. He's part of the system that's protecting rich and powerful men who were pedophiles. we are actually a part of a coalition to take down this rigged corrupt system. It's Democrats who are the true reformers, and we're enforcing the release of the file. So it changes our party from being a party of the status quo, recognizing that people are angry with the rig system, that Trump's become part of the swamp, and we're taking it on.

I understand that there is obviously virtue in the fight. I understand that we may be in a situation where we can flip a lot of these Republican lawmakers and hopefully Republican senators who recognize that they probably don't want to be on the wrong side of this thing. But the final step, of course, in getting any legislation passed is the signature from the president. And so I think it's safe to say that Trump is not going to sign a bill that would release the Epstein files in which his name appears, God knows how many times. And so is the actual strategy to compel the release of these files to hope that if when he refuses to sign onto this legislation, that it then goes back to Congress and there's

some veto-proof majority that compels its release? Yes, that's why we want the big numbers. We want to try to get to a veto-proof majority, which I don't think is out of the question. Look, I know I haven't done a whip count and I don't know, but there's a chance that we could get an overwhelming vote. The second is that if we could get this passed, and think about it, it's the first time Donald Trump has ever in his entire presidency, the first or second turn at a Republican Congress rebuked him. And at some point, he may just think this is not worth the political cause. He hasn't thought that yet, but he may release the files with his name redacted.

He's already gone through eliminating his name everywhere. And people always always ask me, how are you going to know you get the real files? The victim's lawyer has seen the files. So Bradley Edwards will be able to corroborate whether we're getting the rail filed. And there's a lot more to it than Trump. There are hundreds of rich and powerful men who knew about Epstein's abuse of underage girls and turned to the blind eye who helped cover for him. So he got a lenient sentence and who basically were standing in the way of prosecution. And some of them participated, according to

the victims in a farm system where they were engaged in abusing young girls. Congressman, does all of this suggest that you're not confident that the Oversight Committee, that the documents the Oversight Committee is getting, are going to satisfy, are going to be satisfactory, are going to be all of the documents that are contained within the files? Well, the Oversight Committee is doing a good work, and I get Robert Garcia a lot of credit and some elite credit. I was on Lawrence O'Donnell.

Lawrence O'Donnell said, look, the real way you need to get the files is to ask the Epstein mistake, the Bradley Edwards was on his show. Now, think about how hard the FBI is investigating this, or Pam Bondi's investigating it, investigating it. And they never thought, oh, yeah, maybe we should just get the documents for the Epstein estate. It took Lawrence O'Donnell, having the victim's attorney on to talk to a congressman of the Oversight Committee to come up with a rocket science, genius idea that, yes, let's get documents for the Epstein estate.

Josh Patel and Pan Bondi never thought to do that. And then they're claiming they had a thorough investigation. Anyway, to Garcia's credit, he ran with it once we did the letter. Homer felt so much pressure he subpoenaed them. We are getting documents for the Epstein estate. Some of them have been pretty eye-popping the idea of Dershowitz and all the excuses that he's been making for Epstein, the fact that Musk and Peter Thiel and Gates were on the aisle and the fact that the birthday book existed and they'd had the letter that Donald

Trump sent. And I think we're going to continue to get documents. But ultimately, what we need is the witness interviews of the victims and the interviews and memorandum of the alleged rich and powerful men who abuse them. And that's with the FBI. Their FBI forms, we know they exist, these memorandum. And that's what we really need to say. And those are with the Justice Department or at the FBI. So I want to switch topics here and talk about the ongoing government shutdown. Can you speak about the fact that all of this is predicated on the Republican's unwillingness to meet Democrats with the one thing that they're asking for, which is an extension of the existing ACA subsidies? This is not, by the way, some, some expansion.

mansion in subsidies. We're not looking to add anything that we didn't have before. This is a continuation of the existing ACA subsidies so that when 2026 rolls around, people are not stuck paying health care premiums that are 75 to 100% more expensive for 24 million Americans. You summed it up, Ryan. This is to prevent the doubling of your health care premium. Everyone who's getting a premium on the exchange, your rates are literally going to double. Meaning if you're paying $7,000 for health care insurance, you're going to be paying $14,000. And by the way, all of the rates of anyone on private insurance are going to spike because of the Medicaid cut and because the ACA health insurance companies are going to have to go somewhere else to cover their shortfall.

So this is a health care tax on the American people when Donald Trump ran. Do you remember this? He ran. I'm on day one going to bring down costs for the American people. How many times did he have that line? And what has he done? He's increased costs with tariffs, and now he's going to double Americans' health care costs.

We're actually doing the Republicans a favor. We're actually helping them politically, literally. If I were J.D. Banson and Senator Thune and Mike Johnson, I would figure out a way of just taking this deal and saying, thank you. Thank you for not having us get totally wiped out in the midterm elections because you saved us from having health care premiums dough up, double for Americans and cost us all of our swing seats.

And that's why I'm glad that the Democrats this time are holding our ground, and we should not budge. We are on the side of the American people. And all those pundits are saying, oh, they blame the Democrats, they blame the Democrats. First of all, let me just be a little bit bald and blunt here. No one thinks the Democrats have much power in Washington. That's what they dislike about us. We're not strong in them. No one is going to believe that the Democrats are holding this up.

They think the Republicans have all the power. They want the Democrats to fight out of it. So this argument that the Democrats are blocking this is just not believable. Trump is that way is a victim of his own success. He is, it convinced the country. He's the only one who's got power. And secondly, the independents are polling at negative 20% in terms of Donald Trump, blaming Donald Trump for this.

So can you explain the rationale here? This is an issue that's going to land squarely in Republicans' laps when people see in an election year, by the way, a midterm year, when they see their health care premiums double. What is the rationale recognizing, by the way, that the majority of states that saw the biggest increases in ACA subsidies and ACA enrollment, rather, were Republican states. We're talking Tennessee, West Virginia, Texas. And so what is their rationale? Why would they put themselves in such a perilous position in their desperation to rip health care away from people? Because they've been obsessed with a single thought, repeal Obama, right? That's how

Trump ran. Obama wasn't born in America. He has to show his birth certificate. Yeah. How many times in the campaign trial did he say, I'm going to repeal the Affordable Care Act. I'm going to repeal the Obama Care. I'm going to repeal everything Barack Obama died. How many times did we have votes on that in the first term of Trump? It was 77 times there were votes to repeal Obamacare. You wouldn't remember the number, Brian. That's what my brain cells go, unfortunately. And John McCain saved us, right? He saved the Affordable Care Act, the irony, the guy who loss to Barack Obama saves the Affordable Care Act because he has some decency for the American

people. But they've still tried. And look, they've repealed. They've had a silent repeal of 30 or 40 percent of the Affordable Care Act because of the Medicaid cuts. That is cutting the expansions of Medicaid that were at the cornerstone of the expansion of health care. And now they want to go after the rest. Well, the way to go after the rest is to get rid of the tax credits on the previous people aren't going to be able to afford it, and we'll go to having a country which has 30, 35 million uninsured again. Right. It's basically reverting back to the system we had before and eliminating any semblance of the legacy that Obama left behind because this is about massaging the fragile ego of a 79-year-old man. Yeah, 70-year-old man, but this one goes beyond

Trump. This has been the obsession of the Republican Party. I mean, since the Tea Party, They have been running on repeal Obamacare, and they will go through any lens to do this. And it needs to be exposed because it makes out political sense. It's not like they get some pollster, they're saying, this is the fight to add. This is their obsession. And they're like, okay, we have power. We have things that we are obsessed about. If we could have the House Senate and the presidency,

and we could raise the minimum wage to $15. and pollster said, oh, you know, this is very unpopular. We would fight for that. This is their obsession. Their fight is to take away health care. Yeah. Let's finish off with this. You have recently called for a Palestinian state.

That announcement was met with some unorthodox response by Laura Lumer. So first off, can you explain what happened between you and Laura Lumer and just your reaction to kind of how that situation devolved into what it is now? Well, I was shocked. I got a dose of reality into this right-wing network, and when they attack you, I look, I have been very outspoken on Gaza. I have called and said that we should not have military sales to net me out to kill those. And then I led a letter in the House of Representatives to say that the United States, like France, like England, like Canada, like Australia, like 150 other countries should recognize a Palestinian state. Three of Hamas, demilitarized, but a Palestinian stake. with a two-state solution. And I got 47 other Democrats to sign that letter. And that upset a lot of people because APEC was counterorganizing against me to say that we shouldn't recognize a Palestinian state, and they only got 30 on their letter. And then I went to Dearborn, Michigan, and that was a sin because you can't go to speak to the Arab anti-discrimination conference

Arab Khan in Dearborn. And Laura Luma lost it, that I went there, and I spoke. And she started saying that I was speaking in a pro-terrorism conference. And then she had these bots who've just been attacking me, my family. I mean, it is awful, but it's not going to intimidate me. I am there to stand on principle, whether it means the release of the Epstein files, whether it means the call for a Palestinian state, whether it means calling out big money and the influence of big money, you know, I believe in independence and I believe people want politicians who are going to be independent.

Can you talk a little bit about the strategy that that you think is being employed by Benjamin Netanyahu here? Because it seems like he is doubling, tripling, quadrupling down on this strategy of trying to raise Gaza to the ground. And if it's to make his position as the leader of Israel stronger, only for him to see democracies across the world that were otherwise staunchly pro-Israel, countries like France, countries like France, countries like, like the UK, now calling for a Palestinian state in defiance of what Netanyahu is doing. What is the strategy at the end of the day for this person? Well, his strategy is he believes that he is on a messianic mission for Israel, that he's going to take out of Hamas, he's going to take out of Hezbollah, he's going to be denuclearize Iran, that he's going to fight all his battles through force,

and that that's going to leave Israel more secure. And the reality is just the opposite, that he's made Israel now a pariah. He's made them a pariah among not just the world, but among young people. And he's made them for the first time in America more unpopular, more unfavorable, not just among Democrats,

but amongst Democrats and Republicans. And so this is the time, though, for bold leadership in our party. We need to be very, very clear that we cannot continue to provide arms to Netmiao who they're killing civilians, that we need to recognize a Palestinian state, that we need to call out the special interests that have too much of a grip on our party and be against any of that PAC money and super PAC money. I think that more than anything,

the American people won a politics of conviction. I've seen this in the Epstein fight, where they're tired of a government that provides incunity for rich and powerful men. I've seen this in the Palestine fight where the real issue is, of course, the thousands of civilians killed in Palestine, but it's also what corrupt, why are we having if forces corrupt our politics that are making people take positions that defy our own eyes when we're seeing bombing of women and children? And are we going to have a party willing to speak up for moral truths? And I think if we want as a Democratic Party to get young people back, if we want to get independence back, we've got to start with a politics of conviction and the politics of principle

and taking on a system that people believe is rotted. Believe it there. Congressman, appreciate your time, and thanks for the fight. Thank you. Thank you, Brian. I'm joined now by the co-host of POTSafe America, Tommy Vitor. Tommy, we have some major news as far as the feud between Gavin Newsom and the state of California and Trump and his administration are concerned. The New York Times just posted an article explaining how the Trump administration is asking colleges to sign a compact to get funding preference.

So basically, they have to pledge loyalty to Trump's agenda to be able to access research funding. And so Newsom had come out, recognizing that we've seen this before. We've seen it with law firms, with other universities, with tech CEOs, with media outlets. Newsom had come out and tweeted, if any California university signs this radical agreement, they'll lose billions in state funding, including Cal grants, instantly. California will not bankroll schools that sell out their students, professors, researchers, and surrender academic freedom. And so talk to me a little bit about whether we are seeing a sea change here in terms of how Democrats, I mean, specifically Gavin Newsom here, are recognizing that they should fight fire with fire. I don't know about all Democrats, but Gavin Newsom certainly is. And he's like, okay, you want to redistrict Texas?

We're going to do it in California. You want to mess with schools all over the country? Well, we're going to punch back here in California. And, like, maybe that is because Gavin is more pugilistic than some of the other elected officials. Maybe it's because California is like the fifth biggest economy in the world. and he's got a lot of actual power here. Right. I like it because, as you mentioned, I mean, when ABC News caved, that didn't stop Trump from

going after Jimmy Kimmel and celebrating when his FCC chairman tried to get him kicked off the air permanently. And now Trump's threatening a lawsuit over, you know, this dust up over Kimmel and comments he made about Charlie Kirk. So it's clear that like when you give an inch to Donald Trump, he will try to take a mile. Right. So you got to throw a punch back. So if we're seeing the extent to which New York.

Newsom is getting positive coverage from this. If we're seeing the extent to which his approval ratings are rising, if we're seeing the extent to which the polls show him as a 2028 contender getting more and more likely, then why aren't other Democrats recognizing the example that he's setting and following along? I mean, you just mentioned that California responded to Texas's mid-cycle map redraw with their own. We haven't seen any other states do that. We haven't seen it happen from Illinois, from Maryland, from New York, New Jersey, Colorado. Oregon, Washington. We have other weapons in our arsenal, but nobody is using them. Now we've seen Trump go after these universities all across the country. He's been doing it for months. And yet Newsom in California are the only state that's actually fighting back.

Yeah, I mean, I think we've had some bad news about redistricting in Utah this week, too, right? I mean, so the trajectory has not been great in terms of the odds of winning back to the House in 2026. I mean, I do think, look, you're starting to see some Democrats try to fight back. I mean, the government is currently shut down because Schumer and Senate Democrats decided to pick a fight and said, look, you have to extend these ACA subsidies so that people's health care doesn't go up or else we're not going to fund the government. We'll see how this fight plays out. I think you're right, though, that Governor Newsom has proven to be the one most adept at waging this kind of political war. But if other governors see the extent to which it's working, these are all political animals, right? Everybody here, what do they say about senators, that every senator looks at themselves in the mirror and sees the president?

So, like, these people all see the tack that's working here. They see the media environment that we're in. And so why not take this as some positive reinforcement and recognize, like, I don't even have to be the first one to do it. I don't even have to have to, you know, step out onto a limb here. Newsom did it for us and look at the reaction that he's getting. Yeah, part of it's like a lack of fear in Newsom's part. Part of it is maybe they just did a better job thinking and preparing for these kind of eventualities.

Because, like, it just does seem like they've been not only willing and able to punch back hard, but they have a plan in place. Like, they have a strategy that's ready to go, whereas a lot of other elected officials have just been kind of flailing for the last nine months. Right. If they could even bring themselves to punch back, then you have to actually follow up your words with actions. And so, you know, it's difficult enough to get these people to actually say the right thing or to have some posture where they're forward-leaning and aggressive and willing to show some fight. But then if they get called on their bluff, they got to be willing to do it. And for so long, we see a lot of these Democratic governors, senators, members of Congress who aren't willing to actually put their actions behind their words. Yeah.

I mean, look, hopefully this government shutdown fight goes well for Democrats, and we'll see a little more momentum behind fighting. So on that point of the government shutdown, right now the main issue, and I want to reiterate this, and I know that people who have watched my channel and listened to my podcast, know what I'm about to say, but the reality is the more we can repeat it, the better off will be. And that is that the Republicans have shut down the government right now. Let's not forget that they control the House, the Senate, and the White House. If they wanted to reopen the government, they could. The only red line that Democrats have pointed to, the only way that we're using our leverage is to continue the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act that already

exist. Because without those subsidies, as we head into 2026, people's health care costs are going to rise double or triple from where they are right now. And so this is not just going to impact Democratic states, it's going to impact Republican states. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, the five top states that have seen the biggest increases in ACA enrollment are all states that voted for Donald Trump. And they include states like Texas, like West Virginia, like Tennessee. And so everyone is going to be hit by this failure to continue the ACA subsidies that already exist. And so Democrats are saying, look, you need some of our votes to reopen the government. And so all we want is a continuation of those existing subsidies.

are saying the Democrats want to fund health care for illegal aliens. And the reality is there is not a single dime of federal funding that goes toward undocumented immigrants. If you look at healthcare.gov's own website, this is a website that's run by the Trump administration. They concede on that website that undocumented immigrants are not eligible for health care on the marketplace. And so that argument is pretty easy to understand. And it's also something that's going to impact all Americans. Everybody understands the very simple concept of of what happens when your health care gets more expensive. And so now we've seen some of these Republicans start to flail,

and they get into the space where they're beginning to try and explain away their logic. And in politics, when you're explaining, you're losing. And so I'm going to put a tweet right up here on this screen from J.D. Vance. And I'm just going to read the first couple sentences. This is important. Money is fungible, and it's why the Democrat and media lie that health care is not going to illegals is so preposterous. Consider, for instance, two states' Medicaid programs.

Ohio and New York. New York gives Medicaid to illegals and Ohio doesn't. When the government gives billions of dollars to New York for Medicaid, that frees up state money in New York that can then be spent on illegals. So when we say that no money is going, no federal funds are going to undocumented immigrants, they're saying, well, all money is fungible. So any money that goes into any of these states via federal funding for anything can ultimately be used for undocumented immigrants getting health care, which seems like a really roundabout way of trying to make this argument, really in the depths of trying to, I mean, like, when you start a tweet that says money is fungible, I don't really know that you're winning the messaging war. So I'm curious to your response to

this. And you pause before it got even dumber. He says, it's like if you give a mobster a hundred dollars, but he promises you he won't spend the money to buy a gun and commit a crime. But then he takes $100 and he buys food and then takes the money he would have spent on food and buys a gun. It's like, okay, buddy. This is what money is fungible means. It's like, I just don't know that this is the bumper sticker message that they were going for. So, a few thoughts here, J.D. First of all, the state and federal governments are not criminal enterprises. I think this sort of... Well, some government are enterprises.

Well, right, yeah, the current Trump administration. But this is sort of a broad brush comparison, I think ignores some details. This ignores, like, legal restrictions, budgetary controls, accounting practices that govern the way tax dollars are spent. And also, again, state and federal programs, they're not criminal enterprises. Like, funds that are earmarked for Medicaid have to be used in accordance with federal law. You don't just free them up to do whatever you want with them. But he's saying that those dollar bills look the same as these dollar bills. So how do you really tell which dollar bills, unless you're following the serial numbers are going from one to another?

It's just like, look, this money cannot legally use to cover undocumented immigrants. I mean, I guess the scenario they're getting at is that someone is undocumented and they come into an emergency room with a lot. life-threatening illness, the doctors treat them. That is current law because of a law passed by the, during the Reagan administration. Frankly, it's the only morally acceptable thing to do. We're going to let people die? If somebody walks into an emergency room with a gunshot in their chest, is the first question going to be, hold on, let me see your papers?

Yeah, where's your green card? Like, what are we talking about here? Both of my parents were healthcare workers. My dad worked in the emergency room. The notion that he wouldn't, that he wouldn't treat somebody. because of their legal status when they're bleeding out or dying is so backwards. And the fact that it's

coming to us from the pro-life party just really gives the whole game away. They're showing their entire ass here. People who think like that, that's just not a country you want to live in. Someone's dying. We should take care of people who are dying in this country. I don't think that's a controversial thing to say.

And it looks like the broader effort by these Republicans to try and make this money-as-fungible argument in response to Democrats just saying don't let our premiums double or triple in health care is not working out well for Republicans. I'm going to also throw on the screen right now a raft of polling from the last few days that show the extent to which this message is not breaking through on behalf of the Republican Party. There was a recent Washington Post poll that showed that Republicans are getting blamed

17 points higher than Democrats. Morning Consult poll showed Republicans are getting blamed 13 points higher than Democrats. New York Times shows seven points higher than Democrats. The Marist poll shows that Republicans are getting blamed 11 points higher than Democrats. So we can see in poll after poll after poll that the party that's taking the brunt of the blame for this thing is the Republicans. Does that surprise you? It doesn't. Look, the polling so far.

Other than the Democrats' historical inability to actually message anything, that might be a little surprising. Yeah, that part's tough. Yeah, I mean, look, the polling so far has been better than I expected. The Washington Post, they did this big online poll where they could kind of get. back some more specifics in the responses from people. And they would say things like, yeah, I blame the Republicans because they control everything right now. Right.

I don't know. Which is correct. How are the Democrats at fault for this? You know, over time, that can evolve in change. And I think people just sort of like get grumpy that the government's not open, then it's not working, that we look stupid and feckless. So God knows how this will end. But hopefully that kind of early good data, you know, kind of stiffens the spine of wavering

Democrats who might decide like, okay, this is going on too long. I know that this is not a prediction show, but what do you presume is going to happen here if the Republicans decide not to relent because Trump is just having too much fun trafficking in allowing Project 2025 to that agenda to carry out without any oversight from Congress because the government shut down? I mean, honestly, that's my big fear, which is that Trump thinks he can win the messaging war. He thinks he can blame Democrats and make us pay a price. And meanwhile, like Russ Vote, his OMB director, is just rampaging through the government.

I mean, it's not even necessarily about winning the messaging war because nothing here is popular. Saying that you're going to make sure that health care premiums rise two to three times higher than they were right now is not popular. Cutting Medicaid from 17 million Americans is not popular. Most of their agenda is not popular. But he doesn't seem to be too, I mean, frankly, this is a party that doesn't even seem very interested in the fact that there is an election coming up because nothing they're doing is kind of adhering to. to, you know, popular support, the, really what they've been looking for is any, any excuse to be able to just undermine democracy at every turn. That's what Russ vote is doing. Yeah, they're just usurping power. And then a broader problem for Democrats is like, what's the point of getting

in a protracted negotiation with the Republicans over budgeting and spending levels and whatnot when the White House will then just go through this thing called the rescissions process and just claw back money at hoc against the will. of Congress, right? So it's like either way we lose in some sense because we just can't trust anything Trump will do because they have proven they will just do things that are illegal or kind of completely outside the normal bounds of how Congress is supposed to work. And the other Republicans, you know, Speaker Johnson or John Thune, who like most people have never heard of, will never say a word to criticize them or defend the institutions that they're ostensibly

leaving. Right. So obviously that process is going to continue to play itself out. We will, of course, stand top of all of this. But before we go, Tommy, I wanted to talk about one international issue while I've got you. And that is that Donald Trump has struck up some NATO-esque deal where Qatar is now guaranteed Article 5 protection. So if basically if Qatar is is attacked, then in the same way that a NATO country is attacked, Article 5 says that if you attack one, you attack all. And so he's basically promising American troops in the event, a security guarantee in the event that Qatar has some security issue. Can I have your general response to that?

And is this what was promised when we were told that Donald Trump would be in America first president? This is bad shit crazy. I mean, first of all, like, you can't just pass a treaty that requires us to go to war through an executive order. That kind of thing should go through Congress. That's nuts. Apparently, we figured out what Qatar got

when they gave Donald Trump a $400 million luxury airliner. Apparently, it gets you a NATO security guarantee, although I was talking to Dan Fiver, and he reminded me, Then on top of that $400 million plane, there's also all kinds of, like, real estate deals, golf course deals, other funds that have been steered into the pockets of Trump, his family, and the people around him. But like, this is nuts. Like America First is not defending Qatar's, you know, sovereignty in the event of an attack by Iran. And by the way, the Israelis bombed in Doha, in the capital of Qatar last month.

Does that mean under this plan that we would currently be at war with Israel? Like, what the hell are we talking about here? This is fucking insane. Yeah. And Tommy, this is on top of the fact that we've already seen that Donald Trump has also promised Argentina, a $20 billion bailout. And this is at the same time that Argentina has struck a side deal with China to buy soybeans. And so American farmers were cut out of this deal.

American soybean sales to China have gone down to zero. It's Argentina's farmers that have now sold their soybeans to China. And then in retaliation for that, Trump is bailing out Argentina to the tune of $20 billion, Well, our farmers are at home watching their futures get decimated because when supply chains change, they often don't go back to where they were before. We saw after Trump's first trade war in 2017, where South American farmers had picked up a lot of the business that was led off by these American farmers because of these tariffs, that business has not come back to the same degree that it was before. Australia's beef market has also surged in recent years as the result of that. initial trade war. And we've seen now that Australia is selling much more beef to China than to compensate for what American farmers aren't selling. And so these are two instances

where Qatar is benefiting from its personal relationship with Trump. And now because the president of Argentina, Millet, the guy has been Harvey Millet, like, the reason that they are apparently going to get a $20 billion bank bill out in Argentina is because Millet is like one of those CPAC guys. He's a Trump fan. He brings his chainsawks. to these CPAC events and his buddy buddies with Trump. He was on stage with Trump and Elon Musk, wielding a chainsaw that ultimately went to Elon Musk

because he was in favor of these doge cuts. And so he's just like a Trump guy. He's a Trump guy. And also, you know, the United States is currently slapping a giant tariff on Brazil because Brazil had their own version of January 6th where the former president, Jair Bolsonaro, tried to stage a coup and now he's being prosecuted. Trump is mad about that because it makes him feel bad

that he's seeing another autocrat. who tried to stage a coup, get prosecuted in another country. So we slapped tariffs on them. So now the Brazilians are cutting all these deals to sell stuff like soybeans to the Chinese. And again, it's hurting American farmers. Like America first foreign policy has turned into, it's unrecognizable. It's $20 billion bailouts for the Argentinian banks. It's sending troops to defend Qatar.

It's reinvating Afghanistan to take back Bagram Air Base. Another thing Trump floated this week. It's Donald Trump being the governor of this organization that's going to, to control the Gaza Strip going forward? Like, what is happening here? None of this makes any sense. Yeah, and behind all of it is a trail of broken promises that Trump made to Americans

that he was going to be so focused on what happens in this country that he invoked the cost of eggs. Like, that's how granular he got when he was spewing his selling his bill of goods to the people who voted for him, that he was focused on the cost of eggs, of groceries, of housing, of rent. All of those things have gotten more expensive,

And yet now, despite his promises of being in America first president, he's using that money to send overseas to the very people who are striking deals cutting American farmers out of the equation. Yep. So the whole thing is just completely backwards. Great work, Donnie. With that said, for everybody who's watching right now,

it's very important that we help build up this progressive media ecosystem, especially to get our message out. And it's important in moments like these where these messaging wars are what determines what the Democrats, what the Republicans do moving forward. And so if you are not yet subscribed to Positive America's YouTube channel, Please make sure to subscribe. I'm going to put the link right here on the screen

and also in the post description of this video. Also, subscribe to this channel if you're not yet subscribed yet as well. Completely free, great way to support independent media, great way to build up the ecosystem more broadly. Tommy, appreciate your time. Thanks for having me. Thanks again to Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren,

Rokana, and Tommy Vitor. That's it for this episode. Talk to you next week. You've been listening to No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, produced by Sam Graber, music by Wellesie, and interviews edited for YouTube by Nicholas Nicotera. If you want to support the show,

please subscribe on your preferred podcast app and leave a five-star rating in a review. And as always, you can find me at Brian Tyler Cohen on all of my other channels, or you can go to Brian Tyler Cohen.com to learn more.