No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen - Trump's attempt to end the primary backfires

Episode Date: January 28, 2024

Trump’s $83 million verdict changes everything for him moving forward. Brian interviews longtime Republican adviser and host of the Hacks on Tap podcast, Mike Murphy, about Trump’s attemp...t at ending Nikki Haley’s campaign backfiring, whether her supporters may defect to Joe Biden in November, and his thoughts on the US Senate race in California. Visit: https://evpolitics.org/Shop merch: https://briantylercohen.com/shopYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/briantylercohenTwitter: https://twitter.com/briantylercohenFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/briantylercohenInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/briantylercohenPatreon: https://www.patreon.com/briantylercohenNewsletter: https://www.briantylercohen.com/sign-upWritten by Brian Tyler CohenProduced by Sam GraberRecorded in Los Angeles, CASee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 Today we're going to talk about how Trump's $83 million verdict changes everything for him moving forward. And I interview longtime Republican advisor and host of the Hacks on Tap podcast, Mike Murphy, about Trump's effort to end Nikki Haley's campaign backfiring, whether her supporters may defect to Joe Biden in November and his thoughts on the U.S. Senate race in California. I'm Brian Tyler Cohen, and you're listening to No Lie. You likely know by now that Trump was just hit with an astronomical judgment of $83 million in the second defamation case brought by E. Carol. So here's why this verdict changes everything for Trump moving forward. Prior to this ruling in the first iteration of this case, Trump was hit with a $5 million judgment. So I don't
Starting point is 00:00:39 know how rich Trump is, but we have a sense, right? And that sense is that a $5 million judgment doesn't have much of an impact on someone who is not only already wealthy, but also has an email list of millions of people at his disposal who are just perfectly ready to empty their wallets out for him. But when Trump was hit with an $83 million judgment, that's different for two reasons. Now, first, it may be easy to bilk your marks for $5 million, a lot less easy to bilk him for $83 million. That is a big number and it hurts. And it remains to be seen what Judge Kaplan does in terms of requiring some bond pending Trump's appeal, but he's not going to be able to wiggle his way out of this. And if you need proof, by the way, that this hurts him
Starting point is 00:01:18 financially, notice that the punitive damages are actually having their intended effect of deterring him from defaming Eugene Carroll again. Like, after that $5 million judgment a few months back, it took Donald Trump all of 24 hours before he defamed her. This time, I mean, it's already been a few days as of this recording, and the guy is tiptoeing around her like a teenager trying to sneak out of the house. For Donald Trump, of all people, like this human grenade with no pin, to not lash out like a raving lunatic and actually respect a court ruling is all the proof you need that this number hurts him. And it hurts him badly. So, you know, I don't want to be all Susan Collins here, but holy shit, maybe we actually found the number that it takes to make Trump stop
Starting point is 00:01:58 breaking the law. And look, Trump's finances are one thing. Yes, it'll hurt him in the wallet and for a good reason. But here's the more important effect of this ruling. It shatters his air of invincibility. This idea that nothing can happen to him, that he's Teflon Don, that he can commit crimes with impunity. And by the way, Trump relies on that cynicism. He wants us to be so disgusted with the dysfunction of the justice system and the political system that we all lose faith in it, that we all abandon it. That's not some like convenient little added benefit for him. That is the hallmark of his strategy. that illusion of his invincibility is now shattered.
Starting point is 00:02:31 Trump was just held accountable by a judge and a jury who didn't care about his ranting and his raving and his threats and his temper tantrums to the tune of $83 million. They weren't scared into submission. And so now Trump moves forward into his subsequent prosecutions, not enjoying the high of having gotten away with it, but being seriously damaged from the last trial where he was actually held to account. And in the same way that the first indictment was the hardest, but then the next three felt like dominoes.
Starting point is 00:02:58 This takedown of Trump may have been the first time that the guy was really, truly hit hard in court, but it paves the way for the next jury that, no, the sky won't fall, that it's not some impossibility to hold this run-of-the-mill con man to account for his own actions. And I want to be clear, this isn't even the only blow that Trump was dealt this week. He was hoping to end the Republican primary. Instead, he managed to lose 45% of the vote in New Hampshire and basically ensure that Nikki Haley would spend the next month campaigning against him before her home state of South Carolina. That means more money spent fighting against another Republican.
Starting point is 00:03:32 That means more of a wedge driven between Haley voters and Trump voters. More Republican-sponsored attacks against Donald Trump. More hard truths that Republican voters are going to hear from one of Trump's own cabinet members. And less time that Trump can attack Joe Biden. And that's to say nothing of the fact that in two races in a row now, at least a third of the Republican primary electorate has said in polling that a conviction would mean that Trump is unfit for office. And, you know, as always, I can't predict the future. but I would bet my last dollar that Donald Trump will be convicted on at least one of the 91 charges against him.
Starting point is 00:04:04 I mean, hell, it's likely that he'll be convicted on all 91. So if you think that things seem tenuous for Trump now, where he's barely been able to manage more than half of his own party's base voters in the first two contests, just wait until we get to the general and all of a sudden tens of millions of Americans who hadn't been paying attention before are going to find out that Trump is a convicted felon, probably not going to fly for the same party that walks around beating its chest as the defenders of law and order. But, as always, I do have to say this. He brought this on himself.
Starting point is 00:04:32 No one forced Donald Trump to defame E. Jean Carroll. No one forced him to interfere in the electoral certification. No one forced him to steal documents from the White House. No one forced him to direct his henchmen to undermine the election results in Georgia. No one forced him to commit campaign finance violations. He might claim that all of these prosecutions are the result of some coordinated witch hunt against him by the Democrats. But remember, it was the Democrats who pleaded with him not to do all of this. Had he bothered listening to the one group of people who he's now blaming,
Starting point is 00:05:00 he wouldn't have to set a single foot in the courtroom. So the next time that Donald Trump tries to blame the left, just remember that the left were the only ones giving him the right advice to stay out of court. Next up is my interview with Mike Murphy. Now we've got longtime Republican advisor and co-host of the Hacks on Tap podcast, Mike Murphy. Thanks for coming back on. Oh, it's good to be here, man. Great to be back with you.
Starting point is 00:05:23 So let's start off with the ongoing. Republican primary, Donald Trump issued a threat against Nikki Haley's donors that they would be blacklisted if they do end up donating to her. And in the first 48 hours after he issued that threat, she raised, I think it was over $2.5 million. Would you say that this backfired on Trump a little bit? Oh, totally on so many levels. In fact, I talked to an old buddy of mine from Texas, who's a Haley donor, as somebody who served a distinction in Republican politics. And he said, yeah, I saw that and I sent her more money. I want to get a little pin that says, you know, come try me. Well, I mean, what is the, what is the rationale here? And we're going to talk
Starting point is 00:06:06 about this. This is one of the one of my upcoming questions. But what is the rationale here? Because there isn't, I mean, do they really believe that Nikki Haley is going to win this primary? Well, no, they just want to put up the noble fight, you know. I mean, well, let me, let me back up a minute. So that was the craziest election night in American history. And I have a theory about what really happened. During the day, you know, the networks were doing exit polls, which are tricky because you take them during the day as waves of voters. They call in the results. A computer makes a model. And within the networks, they keep updating, but you get a number. So the midday number based on the morning exits was pretty tight. It was like three or four points. And that started leaking
Starting point is 00:06:47 out. And I think somebody told Trump and he went bat shit crazy and they had to like falcon hood him, get a straight jacket out and he was pissed off all day later waves showed it widening to reality more like 11 points but uh Trump was so wound up he went out there and did crazy grievance night and it was just Trump unhinged which is the Trump we have you know with his mental decay he makes Biden look like Einstein so that that was the Trump psychosis that led to the you know I'm going to come get you all the crazy fascist crap he's just more revealing whenever you're something under pressure. Trump is so revealing to all his, all his problems and, you know, why he can never be in the Oval. Now, as far as why donors are giving to Haley is that they hate Trump, you know,
Starting point is 00:07:32 there's a wing of a Republican Party. I'm one of them. They never Trumpers who don't like him. And in the actual elections, she's pulling a lot of independent or in California, we call them DTS, declined to state votes that don't want Trump. The question is, can she get the nomination? So I went to New Hampshire. I went to Iowa. And in addition to hacks and my, NBC TV stuff, I wrote some substact columns about it, which I encourage people to check out. And I wrote one flying back on Election Day to L.A. from New Hampshire of the fork in Nikki Haley's Road. Does she go down to South Carolina, fight the good fight, which will be emotionally satisfying to many people, including me, and get killed in the primary, which sadly,
Starting point is 00:08:16 I think, is the most likely outcome? Or should she fold her tent, step back, Let Trump advance into winner of all the political disasters he's going to have, either losing to Biden again or winning and being a disaster, midterm 2026 disaster and reappear as the one major person left in Republican Party. You can say, I told you so. I predicted this, and I think she could have a hell of a run. She's young. So if I were advising her for her interest, I would say that.
Starting point is 00:08:45 Don't go lose in South Carolina, pull back, be the fresh face in four years that were in the party. from Mike Murphy I want her to go as I wrote to throw a heel hit him in the head you know do everything she can to scrape and fight because I'm enjoying it but I can't tell you I think she's going to win the South Carolina primary well to that point you know the longer that this primary does drag on the more contentious it gets so do you think that Trump runs the risk of like permanently alienating these Nikki Haley voters and ultimately getting them to defect to Joe Biden in November well it's the second part that's the hard one there's no doubt that Trump is anthrax among independent voters who are key to actually win the swing states in the fall. And there is a minority slice, but it's not a small one that would really prefer somebody else. The problem is if those hold their nose Republicans in the general can go to Joe Biden.
Starting point is 00:09:40 Trump would lose a general election to almost anybody, but the problem is the country really wants to fire Joe Biden. And that's a hard thing for Democratic. to swallow. It's a hard thing for Biden to swallow. He keeps saying we had the best, you know, read the statistics. It's better than you think. But presidential elections normally, and we're in kind of new territory here, but normally start by being a referendum on the incumbent, do we keep them or fire them? And based on their perceptions, which in politics is their reality of the status of the economy and other things, people want to fire Joe Biden. So Trump might
Starting point is 00:10:19 actually beat them unless the Biden campaign can elevate Biden's numbers. So the election becomes a focus on what's wrong of Trump. The scariest number, just to wrap this part up. If you take a poll right now of general election voters who will decide the next president, do you like Trump? No, we hate him. Do you like Biden? No, we want to fire him. Well, if two guys you don't like in this, you know, unappetizing choice, who's better at running the economy? And they give it to Trump by better than 10, 12 points. Biden can't have that. He can't be the second worst evil here. Well, I mean, at this point, we're seeing those numbers actually start to shift as the economy gets better and as perceptions continue to change about the economy. I mean, you know, I can do my Democratic
Starting point is 00:11:03 laundry list of accomplishments as far as the economy goes. I'm sure that you've heard it from Axelrod. But the perception lags. I don't think it's there. Of course. So where are we in October? That'll be it. Of course. And it is a lacking indicator. And I think for as long as the economy has been doing well. I mean, for, you know, we've been under 4% unemployment for 22 straight months now. We've, we've got record black unemployment. Dow and the S&P 500 are both at record highs right now. And we'll see this continue to, we'll see opinions about the economy continue to change. The question is whether it changes, you know, in the right amount of time. For sections reality, and Biden's getting no credit right now. It's into the, the stats are
Starting point is 00:11:40 in the right direction, which gives you hope. But we need a Biden campaign that does not tell people it's the fourth best Thanksgiving. does not tell people read the damn statistics. They've got to start feeling it. And hopefully the reduced inflation now, which Biden can take credit for, will start to be felt out there. That's why inflation is so cruel.
Starting point is 00:11:59 It's an electric shock every week at the grocery checkout or when you try to buy a new car truck or whatever. So yeah, but hoping that happens is not enough of a strategy for Biden to get elected because of the other problem. He's 118. Now, Trump's old too. I think Trump's crazier.
Starting point is 00:12:15 In a Trump Biden election, this rocked-ribed conservative Republican, I'm voting for Joe Biden in a New York minute. Yeah. But they got to step it up campaign-wise because right now they're losing to an idiot. Well, you know, the conventional wisdom among the punditry, among the the punditariat is that Trump notched historic wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. But I'm not really buying into that because Trump is basically running as an incumbent and he said as much as Republican opponents have said as much. think the expectations here are different, meaning if you're only getting 51% of the vote, as was the case in Iowa, or 55% of the vote, as was the case in New Hampshire, at the same time that you're trying to convince everyone that you're the second coming of Christ in the Republican Party,
Starting point is 00:13:01 those numbers aren't adding up. So what are your thoughts on that in terms of... You know, I'm kind of in the middle on that. I give him some credit as much as I hate to for the Iowa number. He set the record. I mean, your point is right. He does run as the president who was cheated of the election. And so you would say in a presidential reelect, his numbers are terrible. But it wasn't quite that. He set the limit in Iowa. He had multiple candidates tried to, you know, try to get at him there. So I got to give him an award for a pretty good Iowa. Remember last time he lost a cruise that he had a contested deal there. And he pretty much almost doubled his vote. So New Hampshire on the other hand, it was really just him and Haley. There was nobody else.
Starting point is 00:13:43 And he won fair and square. You know, he got 12 delegates, probably she got eight. So it wasn't a crushing win there. If you x-ray his numbers, though, there was very little Republican enthusiasm for him. And everybody else was dead set 80-20 against him. I actually think Nikki could have beat him in New Hampshire. She'd gotten her act together, and she made a lot of mistakes. So I don't give him as good of a grade for New Hampshire.
Starting point is 00:14:09 If you kind of x-ray him, he looks more like Keith Richards. You know, there's a lot of bad news in the x-ray for him. What about that number? I believe it was 31% in Iowa and something like 39% or 42% in New Hampshire that, and this is among Republican caucus goers and primary goers, that if Donald Trump is convicted in any of these trials that he is, that they would think he was, would be unfit to serve. And like, you know, not going to, not going to predict the future here, but the guy is contending with 91 criminal charges.
Starting point is 00:14:39 A lot of them are home runs. Yeah. You know, in the Republican primary among, keep in mind, New Hampshire is a hybrid primary. It's over 40% Democrats and independents who lean, mostly independents who lean Republicans. So it matches Haley's number. You know, she got to the 40s. All the questions you ask people about Trump are pretty hostile to him in the 40s there. So yeah, he's got a big problem. He looks like death in a general election. And I think, well, the court cases in the fun house. mirror world of the Republican primary, you can argue help him because, oh, they're just out
Starting point is 00:15:15 to get them. It's all the fixed Democrat machine, you know, blah, blah, all institutions are corrupt, all that poison. In a general election, those voters you're talking about New Hampshire and everywhere else do resonate to the fact, Jill Bird president. So yes, yet another problem for him, which is why if you put a gun to my head, I think Biden probably eaks out of victory. Yeah. But it's uncomfortably close because the country wants to fire the president. And when the country is there, if they're still there, that's why I have a campaign to fix that. But if they still think Biden is too old and they can't run the economy, I am very worried about how much they will give Trump a pass on all this other stuff. I do have two things, two things to remind you of in terms of wanting to fire Joe Biden. The first is that that's been the case all along that Joe Biden has not been especially popular. And yet Democrats have overperformed in, you know, in 2022 and 2023.
Starting point is 00:16:09 And they've also got the added benefit of the Dobbs issue. And with with these Republican governors and Republican legislatures across the state going farther and farther to the right on the issue of abortion, they're doing themselves no favors at a time when they could be taking advantage of the fact that, yes, Biden is unpopular. It's a great wedge issue for Democrats among most voters. The Republican Party keeps sticking a finger in the light socket. So I agree if you're there. I just, I'm such a Jurassic consultant. I've been around when, when people decide they don't want the incumbent president anymore,
Starting point is 00:16:41 it's not a two-way race. It becomes a one-and-a-half-way race. And a lot of the arguments against Trump, which I believe are true about Trump, were somewhat unfairly made about Reagan in 1980. Oh, they're not going to, a guy, a washed-up Hollywood actor in chimp movies who keeps saying trees calls pollution is going to beat Jimmy Carter.
Starting point is 00:17:02 But yeah, because the bar for Reagan was pretty low because they wanted to fire Carter. So the dependent veritable and the equation of this election is going to be what people think of Joe Biden in October. And they have a case to argue, you're doing a good job of making it. But they haven't made it there yet.
Starting point is 00:17:19 And the other problem is age is a very hard thing for them to get rid of. The advice I keep giving, which they resist, as I say, you've got a star cabinet of young Democratic stars. You got Buttigieg, you got Gina Ramundo, you got Mitch Landrieu, all incredibly capable, successful politicians surround Biden, make it the team, because the Trump team is the dregs from the bottom of the barrel. Right.
Starting point is 00:17:43 And that's a good contrast. Now, with the Biden people, they haven't told me this, but I think what they're thinking is, no, that'll make them look older. Well, you've lost the old thing, you know? you're not going to put that toothpaste back in the it's a good point make him the
Starting point is 00:17:56 make him Gandalf with his team of excellence yeah it would prop him up Biden alone just the communications issues of his age and everything they get in the way of the message yeah
Starting point is 00:18:06 you gotta fix it I think that's a great point I also like how we got I think less than 10 minutes into the podcast before Gina Romando got a shout out I know I'm a fan for anybody who watches
Starting point is 00:18:15 who doesn't watch the Haxon Tapp podcast or listen to the Haxon Tapp podcast first of all definitely tune in It is one of my absolute all-time favorites, and it is a consistent list in every single week. But I don't think a single episode goes by where Gina Romando doesn't get a shout out from Mike Murphy here. Mike, do you think that going back to Nikki Haley for just one more moment,
Starting point is 00:18:35 do you think that she's trying to set herself up as the era parent in the Republican Party in the event that Donald Trump does end up convicted before the 2024 election? Maybe, but she's digging in on what's wrong with Trump. She's a little too late to the party on that. I think she's got to make a big decision strategically for her career. Does she, you know, play the long-term politics, or does she want to try to be hair apparent? If she plays the long-term politics, does she bet on a Trump crack up? He loses again, two-time loser to Biden, and they're going to want something different in four years.
Starting point is 00:19:10 Conservative, but again, the I told you so campaign, she was the one who saw coming. Or does she want to try to elbow out Tim Scott and Doug Bush? Bergam, you know, ran for an hour for president. And Ron, my new name for him, the sycophantius, to be the junior Trump and try to go there. Well, she's kind of digging her grave in that thing, to her credit, I think. So I think being the hair apparent to Trump, out of reach for her. Being the, okay, we got to move beyond this Trump candidate in four years, I think she could, she has a shot. She's young.
Starting point is 00:19:48 She's a good political athlete. Nader rookie mistakes in this campaign, a lot of them. But you learn from that. And remember, in the Republican Party to steal Begala's old joke, they like to nominate the oldest white person in the room. Well, that's often somebody who's run twice. Yeah. You know, Reagan ran twice, Romney ran twice, Bob Doe ran three times.
Starting point is 00:20:09 Her second shot may be the gold if she handles this right. I just don't see a path to the nomination now, which is too bad. I'm all for her. Worst case scenario, there's always a fourth chair at the Hacks on Tap podcast alongside Murphy Axe and Gibbs. No, no, we hate each other. I mean, I don't like Nikki. I know her. She's not my favorite.
Starting point is 00:20:28 She's a cynic. But against Trump, she's Gandhi. And I'm all four. Yeah. Mike, if you were advising Biden on how to beat Trump right now, what would you tell him to do? I would say, Mr. President, before he throws me out of the office. Yeah, yeah. You're running the classic incumbent campaign that senators run.
Starting point is 00:20:47 which is, you tell those voters, here are my accomplishments, damn it. Tell them to get the facts and then they're going to vote for me. It's kind of an emotional support animal for him. And I've had a lot of incumbents say, any consultant has where they come. I wrote my first ad and it's an hour long, past the left hand on right turn assistance bill, you know, all I've done for you. Instead, he's got to move the election to motive. Why is he doing this to help hard press middle class families, you know, have a better life in America? Why is Trump doing it for himself, greed, to get even, to make his cronies rich.
Starting point is 00:21:21 He's not on your side. So move the election to, what do you get? You get Biden, a team of excellent people who are motivated by helping you and people like you and get your problems and are making progress. We're not there yet, but we're doing the hard work. And hopefully, as the economic perceptions change later in the year, then they can really cash that in, but lay the predicate for it now versus... Trump's extremism, his greed, his lack of respect for law and order, all the Trump things. But it's got to be a contrast of motives and it's got to be about middle-class kitchen table economics. Who's for who and who's for themselves and who wins in the end?
Starting point is 00:22:01 What does the day after the election look like for you, voter? Rather than, here's my great record, you idiots don't understand it. The statistics are great. You owe me a vote. Mike, you are the co-director of the Center for Political Future at USC, at the at the University of Southern California. Just this past week, our friend Alex Michelson, co-moderated a debate between the top polling U.S. Senate candidates for California, including Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, Barbara Lee, and Republican Steve Garvey.
Starting point is 00:22:29 What did you think about the debate? And what are your thoughts more broadly on that race for the U.S. Senate? Yeah, I thought it was a good debate. I thought Alex did a great job. You had four personalities up there. You had two Democratic members of Congress who were leading the people, Pact and fundraising, led by Adam Schiff, but also Katie Porter. She's more of a fiery Elizabeth Warren populist, and Schiff is a little more cerebral. You had Steve Garvey, who is the Republican
Starting point is 00:22:58 candidate, and of course she had Barbara Lee up north, a very progressive Af American Democrat. Doesn't have a lot of money, doesn't have a lot of base, but is a factor and did pretty well in the debate, I thought. So step one, you got to remember the California rules. This is not a Republican versus Democratic primary. We have two passed the post here. so they're all running on one belt and the top two, regardless of the party, will go on after March to win the election. So basically, if it is Steve Garvey and any of the Democrats, the odds are that Steve Garvey will lose because it's California,
Starting point is 00:23:30 which is overwhelmingly Democratic. If it's Shift and Katie, or maybe Barbara Lee, though I doubt it, then you have a rip-roar and face-rippin thing all the way to November, where independents and Republicans will be the swing vote. So the shift campaign would much rather have Garvey because against Katie Porter, they know from their polling that Republicans dislike shift more than Porter
Starting point is 00:23:58 simply because he was all over TV for the hearings about Trump where I thought he did a good job. On the other hand, Democrats like that. So both, this is a weird campaign where both Katie and Adam are hoping, that Garvey edges their Democratic opponents out and is in second, because then the race is over a week after the primary.
Starting point is 00:24:21 Nobody clearly won or lost. Katie is the soundbite machine, but she has a rage vibe that I think is a problem for, particularly in the second half of the debate. She's just ticked off. She's awful, awesome, you know, she's vulnerable to some criticism, but she's better at the soundbite.
Starting point is 00:24:38 She's a better Democratic populace. She's better at doing the Elizabeth Warren stuff. I think Schiff's worried about that. shift is the senator for a senator's job you know the thoughtful the accomplished legislature and he played one card into the debate you're going to hear a lot more of in the campaign which is speaker nancy pelosi who's well liked by democrats in california particularly in san francisco which is the jump ball because the two members are both from southern california they're on tv now fighting it out where san francisco media market that's the key territory anyway Pelosi is beloved there
Starting point is 00:25:11 and Pelosi is for Schiff. And she can say, I work with both of them, show horse, workhorse. I'm with the Workhorse, Adam Schiff for Senate. And I think you're going to hear a lot of that in the campaign. I think Schiff has the edge, but you don't count out Katie's ability to work the soundbites
Starting point is 00:25:29 and be the angry Elizabeth Warren populist, which there are votes for. She did have, I think, the best sound bite of the night, which is she said that Steve Garvey, she said, always a Dodger when he was asked who he would vote for between Biden and Trump. And he outright refused.
Starting point is 00:25:46 I mean, he did a two-minute filibuster where he just, like, refused to answer the question. And if you can't answer that question, it's like, what are you doing? Yeah, he knows he's in California and he doesn't want to do a suicide run because Trump's going to get slaughtered here. The problem with the baseball jokes is they all have one. So they're all kind of landing with a thud. But she got the first one out, which was the advantage. Shift had one.
Starting point is 00:26:07 I think it's a swing and a miss. Get it? Yeah. But anyway, we're seeing. I'll be interested to see how Katie Porter wears. I'm also interested to see Schiff's clobbering her in fundraising. So how she does in the next 20 days in fundraising, if she can be competitive statewide on television or get beat two to one.
Starting point is 00:26:26 Because this is a big, big, big state where if you're not on TV, you have no prayer. Well, how dangerous do you think it would be for Republicans as far as the House is concerned if Schiff and Porter end up as the top two finishers in terms of drawing, drawing out hundreds of thousands of more Democrats who otherwise wouldn't see the point of coming out to vote. And instead, like, seeing these two on the ballot, you know, drawing all these voters out, and then seeing the down-ballot impacts as far as House races are concerned. Yeah, it's more about House races.
Starting point is 00:26:57 We don't have anything competitive, but we have a couple of House races that are competitive, mostly in the Southern California Metroplex, where a big Democratic turnout would be good for Democrats. You know, normally in presidential elections, the Democrats do fairly well on turnout because their younger voters show up. See, all here is where they get slaughtered on turnout. But the downside to the big Porter versus Schiff, Stalingrad general election, is it'll suck a lot of money from other races around the country. You know, I think if you were to ask Leader Schumer in the Senate, what he'd like is a nice
Starting point is 00:27:34 clean win in March, so California is done for the Senate. they've locked in a seat and then he doesn't have a big nationalized california race pulling progressive money to her and slightly less progressive money to him um we're see right now i'm i'm of the complete opposite mind i think that if we can get these two democrats i mean as a democrat if we can get two democrats to go all the way to november and bring out so many like if it's adam schiff versus steve garvey the the odds that someone is going to really make the effort to leave their House in in dark blue California versus if it's Katie Porter and Adam Schiff is is like astronomical. And so think about the impacts that we'll have for California's 26, for
Starting point is 00:28:16 example. I mean, there are race, there are house races out here where the difference was like a thousand votes. And having two massively prominent Democrats on the ballot in November is going to have huge implications, I think, for those House races. Yeah, you know, it's a balancing thing like most things in politics. D. Tripp would probably like it. Oh, they are going to be gutting each other. So we're kind of see where that goes. Or I think the center folks would rather not have $50 million bondfire of federal dollars here in California for a seat they're going to win anyway. Right. I agree with that. I wish that people could just, and neither campaign is going to be happy with this, but I wish people could not donate, but still be as engaged as possible.
Starting point is 00:28:58 Right, right. You know, it's always a complicated calculus. Mike, when do we, when do we pry the Republican ism out of out of your iron grip like when do you when do you just come clean and fully embrace the communist marxist waters that you've been dipping your toes into and just uh you know and just leave leave your party behind well that'll be hard to do i mean trump's chased me away from voting for a lot of his kind of candidates but i can always write in mint romney or john mccane you know i'm a conservative so the mile cap doesn't fit too well but to stop trump i'm all for joe Biden. Well, you know, the people who are emboldened when Republicans gain power, they're not the elusive moderates out there. It's the extremists. It's the Marjorie-Teller Greens and the Lauren
Starting point is 00:29:43 Boberts and the Jim Jordans. Those people kind of use the moderate candidates to siphon votes out of nice, moderate, suburban Republican moms and dads. I'm not a moderate. I'm a conservative. I mean, we have cranks in the House who I don't think our conservatives under good Berkian definition. They're populist yo-yo's. And they're a problem. But in the Senate, we still have regular Republican conservatives who still have some power. So I'm going to keep fighting from within because on a policy basis, I'm a lot more right than left. Aren't you worried that when you cast your ballots for the normal Republicans, and we're getting the lesson over and over that it's not those people who actually exercise power?
Starting point is 00:30:23 You can give your votes to those people, but then they immediately become like supplicants to the Marjorie-Tos of the party. Well, I don't know. I don't think she has any power. You know, she has power to make noise. Maybe in the house you can kind of widen it to the Freedom Caucus rather than her. Yeah, look, it's tough. The problem is I'm a fan of old John Stuart Mills once said about UK politics. It's a depressing choice between the evil party and the stupid party.
Starting point is 00:30:51 It used to be the Dems were the evil party and we were the stupid party. Now we're the evil party and they're the stupid party. You know, AOC drives me every bit as crazy as Marjorie Taylor Green. Well, I'll amend that. She's not as bad because she doesn't want to burn down the Constitution of the States. So that's a significant note. But I can't stand the Looney left. Their policy destroys the people they want to help.
Starting point is 00:31:11 Well, one policy that I think that you've been very receptive to is actually EVs. And I know that you have, you have a position that kind of distances yourself from the rest of your party. Can you speak on that for a moment? Yeah, no. So I'm from Detroit. I'm a car nut. My lifetime car average is probably six miles per gallon. But I fell in love with electric vehicles for a couple of quick reasons.
Starting point is 00:31:39 One, they're just, they're great vehicles. They're fast, they're quiet, they're fun to drive. Two, they require less parts, less maintenance. So there are a more cost-efficient way to have mobility. They take less people to put together, which takes cost out. Now, UAW doesn't like that, but the reality is the world is going electric. and right now the Chinese are out producing us or out selling us in electric vehicles 8 to 1. This year they passed Japan as the world's largest auto exporter.
Starting point is 00:32:06 So the trend toward electrification worldwide is totally true. And if you're environmentalists, there's a lot of good benefits about CO2 emissions. But I have been heartbroken to see so many Republicans from Fox News, the senators, even some senators I like, constantly trashing EVs because it's partisan politics. and if Joe Biden likes something, it has to be bad, even when it's good. So, being a campaign person, I wasn't going to sit around. I started an organization called eVPolitics.org, and by the way, I'm going to send you some of our cool merch, and we're organizing the pushback, because there's a whole secret
Starting point is 00:32:41 world of EB driving Republicans. And we're going to try to help the companies market better. We just did a big poll on Republicans versus Democrats over EVs to find out what the main spring is. The bottom line is they're not seen as vehicles. They're seen as a political statement. And the problem is when you make one political statement, one side loves it, but the other pushes back.
Starting point is 00:33:01 We got to get back to selling them as vehicles again, because I like to save the North American auto industry. I really want China having 80% plus of the world auto market and all those jobs. It's a bad thing. So go to evipolitics.org. Take our quiz, myth versus fact, when we knock down all the Fox Newscramp about EVs. And we have a lot of data there in ways people can help. We will gladly take you on that issue, even though, even despite your lifelong affiliation
Starting point is 00:33:29 with the Republican Party, we'll gladly take you on the EV. The Dems have been much better on EVs. I'll give it to them. Though oddly, the first research money goes back to George W. Bush. Yeah. But the Republicans are stupid about this. And the more Republican voters use their free market intellect to try the better product, I can tell you where you get a pro-EV Republican.
Starting point is 00:33:48 That's an EV who's actually driven one. Yeah. And makes converts. So, yeah, I'm all with you guys. that. Well, we'll leave it there. Again, for anybody just tuning in right now, we're seeing Mike for the first time. Highly, highly, highly recommend you check out the Hacks on Tap podcast. It is in my weekly rotation. With that said, Mike, thank you so much for taking the time and I'll talk to you soon. Thank you. I really enjoy it. I hope to come back soon and we got to get you on hacks.
Starting point is 00:34:12 Let me sober up Axelrod and see what I can do. Thanks again to Mike. That's it for this episode. Talk to you next week. You've been listening to No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, produced by Sam Gray music by Wellesie, interviews captured and edited for YouTube and Facebook by Nicholas Nicotera, and recorded in Los Angeles, California. If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe on your preferred podcast app. Feel free to leave a five-star rating and a review, and check out briantylercoen.com for links to all of my other channels.

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