Oscars Outsider - Our First 2026 Oscar Predictions Are Already a Mess

Episode Date: June 30, 2026

It’s way too early… so naturally we’re making our first Oscar predictions.This week on Oscars Outsider, we start building the 2026 Best Picture race from scratch: what already feels like a lock, what feels wildly overhyped, and which movies we’re reluctantly admitting might be stronger than we want them to be. We get into The Odyssey, Digger, Project Hail Mary, Michael, Fjord, Dune: Part Three, Fatherland, Wild Horse Nine, The Social Reckoning, and more.Are Project Hail Mary and Michael already undeniable? Is The Odyssey the obvious frontrunner, or could backlash open the door for Dune: Part Three? And which early contenders are we already ready to drop?Plus: Nolan’s unusual rollout for The Odyssey, the problem with influencer screenings, and why this Oscar race already feels like a mess.

I definitely don't want to have another Reddit ass millennial humor movie like Project Hail Mary get in there. I fought in the trenches during the everything everywhere all at once wars. And I still have PTSD every time I hear a Mitzki song. Welcome back to Oscars Outsider, a podcast about the awards race, Hollywood, history, the magic of movies and friendship. My name is Dylan Ferguson. And with me is Craig Midwood. Hey, Craig. How's it go?

Pretty good yourself? Pretty good. Pretty good. Did you see Canada when their game in the World Cup last night? I did. Yeah. It was very exciting. Let's go. Yes. This is also a Canadian podcast, by the way, guys. So we're recording this on June 29th, a Monday. We're going to talk about some of the movies that are entering the awards race discussion. We'll get to those in a bit later. But before we do, let's start off with some news. We do have a big headline dropping here, Craig. It finally happened. Josh Gad can vote. for Best Picture. I know you've seen the headlines.

You all know our long national nightmare is over. So the Academy of Ocean Pictures, Arts and Sciences released their new membership roles. So they are adding 529 people to the academy. That's more or less in line with the kind of increases that we've seen in recent years. The voting body for the academy continues to expand. It's been about 10 years now since in the wake of the Oscar So White campaign, they started expanding membership, notably with an eye towards diversifying the membership a little bit. Craig, did you have a look at the new membership roles that just got released? Yeah, I did.

It's a smaller class than it has been in previous years, like you said, because of their initiative to, in the wake of Oscar So White, they have been expanding fairly rapidly. and this is kind of smaller than it's about half the size of the 1,000s that they were doing a couple years ago. Yeah. About aligned with last year. Last year there was 534 and this year is 529, so almost exactly the same as last year. But you're right, there were some more dramatic increases in previous years. But the total volume of voters does continue to swell around about 11,000 voters now, which is dramatically more than it was 10 years ago. Did anything jump out at you?

just seeing who was who was in in terms of individuals, in terms of the backgrounds, the branches. Yeah, so I was pleasantly surprised that it is primarily creatives that are being included in this year's class. I know that that's something that we have talked about pretty heavily on one of our past episodes is the invasion of the non-creative industry branches

is like the, you know, the marketers and the talent representatives and stuff like that. And I think that it was only around the like 15% of all of the nominees were, are the new members. 15% is still a lot, I think. It's representing a jump from last year, too. We have, there's our seven more artists representatives than were inducted last year. there are 25 artist representatives are being added and 25 marketing and public relations individuals. You knew I was going to jump on this, Craig.

Yeah, totally. We have an episode in our back catalog as you referenced, which is called something like how we would fix the Oscars, where I went on a rant about agents becoming voting members, and I think it sucks and it's a problem that needs to be addressed. But they're continuing to swell the roles. There are only 21 directors that are being added. So how could you only add 21 directors,

but I had 25 artists representatives and 25 marketing and public relations professionals. Come on. That's a problem, I think. Yeah, you're right. It is still a problem, I think. But barring the complete rejection of those branches, which like, like you said, I agree that it would be great. But I don't see that happening. You're going to need to bring people in.

I think that it is, I don't know. I don't see how you could do less than that. But why is there more of them than there are directors? Like, who do you want to be voting on the Oscars? I thought there was about 40 to 50 directors that were in this in this list. I counted 21. Well, okay, 21 of the directors branch. So I guess if we include documentary directors, then it gets much higher because the documentary branch has,

I didn't count it here, but the documentary branch is inducting way more people. So if you include documentary director. as directors, but actual director branch. I'm counting 21 here. Oh, okay. And there are a few people who were invited into multiple branches, and then they have to pick which one they're going to choose. Like there's nine of those, including the Safdi brothers.

Notable directors being inducted include both of the Safty brothers as well as Zach Kramer, Oliver Lachie, the director of Sarat, was also inducted as either a writer or director, as the Safeties were, now needs to choose which brands you'll represent. So in terms of the actual totals per branches, there could be a bit of movement depending on what these individuals choose to side with. But in terms of actual director branch nominees, I'm counting 21 there, which seems pretty low compared to some of these non-creative invites. And it's very low compared to, and this is another issue I have. Sorry, I'm going off here, but I feel like the doors open now. Get them.

I alluded to this when we did How to Fix the Oscars, but I didn't focus on it because that wasn't the focus of my point that episode. But there are way too many animators and visual effects artists getting put in. And that continues this year. That is the category that has the biggest

visual effects is a category with the biggest increase compared to last year. There are 12 more visual effects artists. The total number of visual effects artists getting added to the membership is 37 this year and 43 people from animation. Why are there so many animators and visual effects artists getting in.

I don't get that. This is, to me, you think about who's, I'm not saying that they shouldn't have the vote, but when you think about who's voting for the Oscars, who are the filmmakers, to me, you think of actors, directors, writers, above the line talent. I feel like they should just be more represented in the voting body. Everybody should have a vote. All these branches, except for the agents. But all the other, like, actual creative branches should have a vote.

But I don't understand why they continue to swell the. roles with people who are just drawing, animating, doing effects work. Why are there so many of them? Yeah, that doesn't make any sense to me. I fully agree. Yeah. Well, it does continue to get more international. That's, I think, one thing that that is a notable headline. 53% of the inductees are from non-American countries. So more than half of the inductees are non-American. That is also a big trend over the past 10 years is the Academy becoming increasingly international, which obviously has repercussions in terms of more non-American movies getting nominated, which is something that we've seen in recent years.

And there may be different factors influencing that, but one of the most obvious one is that there are more non-Americans voting. So that's an increase in the number of non-Americans over last year. The 42% women, 56% from what they call under-representative. communities, which I know the academy has a very broad definition of that. It could be just like left-handed people. But that's more or less in line with what we've seen over the past 10 years. They have continued to try and make the voting body more diverse. It continues to be less diverse than like the American population at large, but is definitely much more diverse now than

it used to be before they started swelling the ranks of the voting body. Yeah. And I also noticed that there were like executives like the new Disney CEO. got a vote and yeah um i think liz jenkins from nbc universal who's their chief business officer is in the executive branch so you know yeah yeah um any any other names that like jumped out at you just like scrolling through or seeing the headlines um so i was surprised jamean clement just want to give him a shout out i i love him and i was surprised that he was not already member. As the other flight of the Concord's guy, I remember?

What's his name? Brent. Yeah, I don't, I don't think so, but Jermaine Clement shows up in like everything and has done so much music in film. So I was pretty shocked to see. Like he did, I think most recently he did the new avatar. Yeah. The last two avatar movies, he was a bleeding heart, whaler.

But no, I don't have. anyone else that I really wanted to like point the spotlight at. Yeah, uh, nothing too shocking. Definitely a lot of people who were nominated last year have now gotten their membership cards, which is how it should be. I think that's, that's a, that's a good thing. Uh, in terms of actors, a lot of actors who have had, uh, kind of breakout years recently, uh, like Jacob Allorty and Josh O'Connor, Jenna Ortega, Mia Goss, they're getting their membership cards. Um, and, um, you know, it's, um, it's, um, It's good to have to have young talent in there.

So nothing that I'm going to dispute. I just, yeah, my dispute is just, again, too many agents, too many animators and effects artists, which to be the same thing. Yeah. All right. So what else we got going on here? Craig, I just had Disclosure Day last week. Have you seen that yet? No.

Okay. So we talked last time in, we talked in the last podcast. And I was saying. I'm really stoked to see this movie, and I just never got around to it. And now I just kind of don't really care. But what did you think? Well, I've bought my full thoughts. It's on my substack.

Look up Dylan Ferguson on substack, and you'll find my full thoughts. But it's not behind a paywall. Just go ahead and read it. But a mixed bag. Mixed bag. Definitely like a lot of interesting Spielbergisms, a lot of regression to childhood stuff, definitely tapping into a vein of. of American mythology that he's gone back too many times.

Very interested that his conception of what the government is hiding from us is largely like alien suffering. They feel a lot like symbolic sufferers in that movie. And there's a cool action scene. And a lot of it is also just kind of bad and goofy too. It's not one of the most amazing movies in his filmography by any degree. I think before it opened, I had said that I would give it better than even odds of cracking the best picture lineup. After seeing it, I no longer feel that way.

I give it worse than even odds of cracking the best picture lineup. Okay, we're going to talk about our mid-year predictions here. And so a bit of a spoiler alert, but I also have Disclosure Day missing now. Okay. Interesting. Yeah, I mean, it had a pretty big opening, but then kind of fell off after the, the first weekend. Obviously, box office is not the best corollary, but it does tell you how much people are really talking about it, really into it. And I don't think it's made a massive

cultural dent. And I mentioned in a previous episode that it's like six of the past eight Spielberg movies were best pictured obamides, but the ones that have missed were the more like fantasy sci-fi ones, Ready Player One, the BFG. I don't think people are maybe going to take this movie seriously enough to treat it as an important film and they maybe shouldn't. I think it's a really, you know, it's a very interesting text for sure, but it definitely doesn't exude importance. Like, you know, let's let's pay attention and analyze this movie. You should. You should, you should pay attention to analyze every Spielberg movie because he sees Spielberg and he has such an interesting corpus even when his movies are kind of weird and bad, which is often. But I don't think

it screams the kind of like critical attention, a seriousness that is going to make people give it one of those like blockbuster spots when we finally get down to awards time. Yeah. I feel like the momentum for this movie has really just fallen off the rails, at least at the box office. I mean, it's not doing like completely terribly now, but it doesn't. seem like it's got like any sort of lasting but and i think someone that has to do with the timing of toy story five coming out and just really dominating the the box office um that's kind of been the major story this past weekend like supergirl being completely unable to have any sort of uh ability

to take off with toy story five kind of dominating the box office still so um yeah i I just, I have lost all enthusiasm to see Disclosure Day. I probably still will see it eventually, but it's not like something I'm going to plan my week around anymore. Okay. Let me throw a couple other titles at you that we haven't discussed yet. Okay. That I've popped up recently because there's two I want to compare and I want to I want you to tell me which one you think is going to get more Oscar nominations. So I want to compare two movies.

They're both being released by A-24, and they're both kind of social comedy dramas that kind of fall under the category that I would call. Maybe this should have been a play. One of them is the third feature from Olivia Wilde, The Invite, which had a big reception at Sundance in the winter and was picked up by $824 for $12 million after a billion. bidding war with other studios and is just entering like a limited release this week and we'll probably have a wider release eventually. Unlike Wilde's previous feature, Don't worry, darling, which was kind of an infamous debacle that got bogged down on a lot of tabloid stories. Critics have generally been very nice to the invite, which stars Wilde and Seth Rogan and Edward Norton and Penelope cruise it's a remake of a Spanish movie um kind of a talky apartment drama comedy thing which is

drawn a lot of comparisons to who's afraid of Virginia wolf uh so that's one movie and the other I want to contrast it too is one that just had a trailer drop recently which uh is also the third feature from an actor turned director I'm talking about Jesse Eisenberg's the debut uh Jesse Eisenberg's the debut have you seen this trailer Craig I have I have seen it twice I went back and watched it. Big Gigi fan. Love Paul Giamatti. We're big, we're big Polly G guys on the pod here.

We love Jamadi. Jamadi come on the show. You know, that invite's still open. And I think as character in the trailer is described as like the most important community theater director in New Jersey, which sounds like such a Paul Giovanni character.

So that alone makes me stoked. Paul Giamatti and also Julian Moore, a couple of awards season veterans in that. One thing that's interesting about the trailer is that until you see like the credit lyrics by Jesse Eisenberg at the end, you wouldn't know it's a sneak musical, right? They're doing that classic thing that Hollywood does, which apparently hasn't changed since Wicked, where they advertise musicals as if they were not musicals. Hollywood continues to be embarrassed of musicals and refuse to put actual songs in the trailers. So this is this is a sneak musical with a zero singing appearing in the trailer. We will see what happens.

Jesse Eisenberg's last movie, A Real Pain. Of course, it did not get a Best Picture nominee, but was in the, it was in the conversation and had Best Supporting Actor, one Best Supporting Actor for Karen Culkin, as well as having a screenplay nominee. So he's definitely dipped his toes into Oscar season. and with the kind of the pedigree of Jew Maddie and more, you have to think that it might have some sort of a chance. You can definitely see Paul Giamatti getting in,

it's his time kind of narrative going, which sort of already happened for him for the holdovers a couple of years ago, though that was not as year. That was Killian Murphy's year. Anyway, so those are the two movies, The Invite and the debut. Craig,

which one of those two gets more Oscar nominations for you? So I think the debut, has the better chance at being within the best picture conversation, at least. I think that, you know, Jesse Eisenberg, it's a mix of like kind of knowing his lane and also taking risk. Like, I think that Jesse Eisenberg proved with a real pain that he had great control over like a small, like small film with big actors, like actors that are really able to give kind of a, a two-fisted performance. And so I think that I have a lot of confidence in his ability to execute here.

And I think that the musical side of this is a risk. And we know that voting bodies like it when when directors and filmmakers take risks that end up paying off. This was a really good trailer. I think that Julianne Moore looks like she's got a super dynamic performance. Paul Giamatti is just like so magnetic all the time and I think that there is this narrative that could be built for him. I think he'll probably be within the supporting actor category because I think that that is going to be a better fit for competition for him. So I could see I could see this getting in the best picture conversation. I could see nominations for Julianne Moore.

I could see nominations for Paul Giamati. I could see it being within the screenplay category and you might even get like an original song in there if the field is weak. So I do think that this has maybe a ceiling of like maybe six nominations. I think that that would be a real stretch. But I think that it's for sure got at least two or three. the invite is something that I wouldn't count out either, but it's kind of on the fence for me whether or not this actually makes it into the best picture category

because I don't know if it's got the package. I think that Penelope Cruz being both in this one and in shoot, what's the other one? she's in. Okay, let me, let me just. Wait, what else is she in this year? La Bola Negra. She is in. Oh, she's in that? Isn't she in that? Isn't she in that? Um, let me look at it. I'm not aware. No, she's in something. She's in something. She's in like thin eyebrows. Yeah. There's that still of her with like, she's in like army. She was in in something that opened up con, I think, but I can't remember which one. I'll let you Google.

She is in La Bola Negra. I was right. She's in Labola Negra. Okay. You know, I I didn't realize she's in that movie. Yeah, her and Glenn Close. For real movie? Yeah. Damn, I did not know that. I'm going to get clowned on by people who heard me say that there's nobody that Westerners know in that movie. Apparently, I wasn't paying attention.

Yeah. So I think that there is talk about her performance both in the invite and in La Bola Negra. And I think that just having two films that could potentially be within the conversation, I think La Bolanegra is for sure going to be within this conversation. Again, spoiler for my predictions for the best picture conversation. But I think that that is going to shine a light on her other performances that year. And I think that that is going to put the spotlight on the invite. There's also a really great cast.

It's been getting really good reviews. I just, I don't see this making as big of a splash. I think, especially with A24, I think they're going to coales behind the debut. But yeah, what do you think? I could kind of see it being the invite just because I'm not sure how much appetite the Oscars have for musicals post-Amelia Perez. Obviously, the first wicket got a bunch of nominations, and the second one was basically entirely snubbed last year. year, which was a big surprise when the nominations came out. I wonder if there's just still too much embarrassment around musicals at this particular juncture.

That's going to make them a little hesitant about giving it a bunch of nominations. I definitely think for both Gem Addie and Moore, they would be very, very good bets. Like you said, Morelick's really good in the trailer. she has a number of Oscar nominations like six or something, I think. She's won before for Stilllife. She's one of the very few performers who's had two nominations in the same year

for both actress and supporting actress. So obviously she has a big resume of being lauded by the academy and I could definitely, definitely see her being in the best actress race and maybe being a front writer in the best actress race, even. Jamadi, like I said,

I could definitely see the kind of goodwill coalescing around him. He's only been nominated twice at his career, which feels surprising. It feels like he should have been nominated more often than that with the many roles he's had. Some people are still bearing a grudge about the fact that he wasn't even nominated for his performance and sideways. By some people, I mean me. And so I could definitely see both of them. And I even would say that I expect both of them to get nominations. Would there be other nominations for the movies beyond that?

I don't know. Best picture, I have a hard time just seeing kind of a slightly weird indie musical getting into the best picture field. But it could happen. I think there's good will around Eisenberg. I think he could be up for screenplay easily. He was for a real pain. Original screenplay is kind of a lane that he slots neatly into. But the invite, just by nature of not being a musical, by having performers that are kind of well-liked and well-respected,

in Hollywood there's a good opportunity for like a redemption arc for Olivia Wild. I think a lot of people who were negative around don't worry darling kind of feel bad about that because there was a bit of a pile on effect. And I think

there's goodwill towards the movie and maybe towards Olivia Wilde personally. And I think I'll go with the invite as maybe having a better chance of getting into Best Picture and having a better chance to get both maybe acting and supporting like all four performers could potentially be in the conversation screenplay definitely in the conversation. Yeah, I'm not saying that with any confidence. Part of it is just to be

contradictory against you, but I feel like the musical factor is going to play against the debut. Yeah, I'm like one thing that I didn't mention is since these are both from the same studio, just looking at kind of positioning for a signal, the invite being released pre-September kind of signals that they're not looking at this as an immediate Oscar movie. Like, it's not within that fall release section where the debut is. I don't know. Does the debut have a release date yet? Yeah, I think it's October.

Yeah. Oh, maybe it doesn't. But, yeah, I think it's definitely like a fall release, maybe targeting TIF or something. So they are positioning it better. So I just, it feels like that's where A-20. is going to put its energy, but again, yeah, I'm not counting it out. I think one thing that I'm a little upset about is the fact that we've got both Olivia Wilde and Emily Blunt in the news on the media circuit at the same time. I can't tell them apart.

They're basically the same person to me. So it's very confusing. Any other movies that are on your radar lately that we haven't already talked about in previous episodes? I mean, I'm feeling really good about. obsession. I know we talked about it a little bit, um, but the fact that it's carrying so much momentum after having seen it, I feel like it might have enough to sneak into that best picture. Um, so when we, when we talk about our predictions here, uh, that's definitely on my maybe list. Okay. Should we do that? Let's, let's, yeah, let's dive in. All right. So I'm, I'm not prepared for

this, but, but, uh, we're going to predict what we think ends up in the best picture race. How about How about you go first, Craig? I think you're a little more prepared than I am. So let me see what you've got here. Okay, for sure. So what I did was I broke this down into kind of three different categories. Like what I think is completely locked, what I'm pretty sure is going to be in there, then a couple maybes that I am a bit on the fence of and a couple like things that I think

are misses that are already within the conversation. We'll lead off with the locks here. And what I think is locked is Wild Horse 9, which is Martin McDonough's new film. Searchlight is behind it. I don't want another Martin McDonough movie in the Oscar's conversation. I can't stand as well. But it stars Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich as CIA agents. One of my favorite films stars Sam Rockwell as a CIA agent, Conventions of a Dangerous Mind by George Clooney.

I think that's fantastic. I'm excited to see him in this kind of role again. I just love him. So I think that that is where we're going to see Searchlight put its energy behind. The next one that I've got in The Locks is Digger. This is something that we've talked about a lot. We're getting a trailer just dropped this past week that is mostly a retrospective on Tom Cruise's career with a little bit of footage of.

digger. It is a great sizzle reel. The marketing around this movie is wild to me. Like, we're into like, I think it's been like a year they've been marketing this and we're still far away from the release. Like, I don't think we even know when it's going to be released. October 2nd, I think, is the date. There you go.

And they've been at, I think there's going to be the first real trailer on like July 13th. They've been hyping up the trailer. They've been treating this like. Superman versus Batman in terms of this drawn out, like, slow drip release, which is crazy for like an Alejandro Gonzalez

and Yari to comedy, I guess. And it really seems to be all built around what does Tom Cruise look like. They're hiding Tom Cruise's look. And they have been doing this and hiding this up for like a year. And this is

such a weird campaign for me. It is so fun. I love it. It's fun, but it's like, I don't know how to read it in terms of like, are they, are they so confident that they think that they can like, like, turn this into like a super important blockbuster movie? Or are they like so nervous about it that they're trying to hide actual details about the movie and try to build up height, height before people actually see real footage and how Tom Cruise looks? It's weird. I've never seen a campaign like this for any other movie. Yeah, I mean, I like getting this like mystery and also like a big push. Like this is a movie that people are aware of and it's not a summer release. And I just, yeah, I think it's so much fun. The footage that we have seen looks great. Like everything that that has come out so far looks fantastic.

I'm excited for this one. This is like maybe the film that I am most excited about for the next year. So, yeah, I think that this is a lock purely on the back of the fact that we are obviously already getting a campaign for Tom Cruise in the best actor category. And he's like going. It's the right time for him. Yeah. And I mean, we've got a history of having the honorary Oscar being followed by a competitive win after. Like Fonda and Newman both had that happen.

So I am, I like this. this repetition within. You can't just say Fonda without clarifying, by the way. Peter Fonda had that happened. There's like eight of them, Craig. And so, yeah, I think that that is a lock for the conversation,

barring anything catastrophic happening when it comes out, which would also be really fun if there's a complete collapse. So the Odyssey is the next one that I think is a lock barring any sort of complete catastrophe. I'm praying for it. That's one that I want to hate. I had to have a limb biscuit dropping up. There was a little bit of news about this.

We can talk about it a little bit later. I don't want to dive into this one too much because we're going to talk about it at length in the future, I'm sure. And we already have. I've also tried you like hold off on it. But yeah. The other two locks that I think are the black ball, La Bolanagra.

I think that that one is definitely going to be within the conversation. I think that's what Netflix's big push is going to be. I don't think that Netflix is going to be pushing Cliff Booth in the same way that they are going to be talking about the black ball. I think it kind of slots into that mold that Amelia Perez campaign had. It doesn't have our girl. Didn't end very well that campaign though, did it? No, it did not end that well. But I do think that I think that that's going to be the template that they are going to follow trying to push this.

And finally, before we continue there, are we settled on whether Netflix is going to release it in North America as La Bolanegra or the Black Ball? Because you've called it both. I've called it both. Are they going with a Spanish title? Are they going with the English translation that we know? I'm not really sure. I've seen people discuss it using both. So I have been using both. It's got a November 6th, theatrical release date attached.

So it's going to be right within that window. I think it's going to be within the conversation. And then finally, the last pick that I have as a lock is Fatherland. I think that that one is going to be within the conversation. you'll notice that that is not the winner of the palm um but i it feels more like it's going to be a movie that is going to be within within that that slate okay okay okay so next up are the ones i'm pretty sure about and the debut and fjord are the two that i think i'm pretty sure they're strong signals but i wouldn't be surprised if they ended up missing i think that they've got more work to do

than any of the other films that I talked about in order to be campaigned seriously. And let's get into some of the things that I think are on the fence here. I think Behemoth, which is Tony Gilroy's new film is one that I've seen. A lot of people kind of like talking about lately. It's his first film in something like, what, 14, 15 years. I think it, like Pedro Pascal is someone that has a lot of good. will around him within the industry that I could see there being some like momentum around. Are people not tired of Pedro Pascal by now?

Is is maybe a thing that could weigh into things. When has anybody ever, sorry, what has anybody ever said like, oh man, I love the new Pedro Pascal performance. I feel like I hear, boy, that guy's in everything like 18 times more than I hear. Oh, he was good in that movie. Yeah. Am I wrong? No, I think I think you're right.

At least within like cinema, I think on TV, people are a lot more into his performances than in film. So. Because he wears a mask in the Star Wars show and nobody has to see his dumb face. Sorry, that was not necessarily mean. I take that back, Pedro. You know what? I just want to say, I think like obviously people have been saying for a long time, boy, Pedro Pascals and everything. And I think the underrated contender for the new title of he's in everything now and he kind of always sucks is Josh O'Connor.

I think after Disclosure Day, we have to have a serious conversation about Josh O'Cowder not being good at acting. But that's just my take. I think that's a little more controversial than Pedro Pascal, but I think he sucks that he's in too many things now. Emily Blunt is tons of fun and disclosure blanche. Disclosure boy. Josh O'Cutter sucks constantly, constantly trying to show conflict on his face in a very transparent and annoying and not natural way that I find unentertaining. Okay, I want to use that as a segue to talk about one that I think is going to miss and has someone who I think is in too much stuff and sucks. Sense and Sensibility. Daisy Edgar Jones, the new trailer for that dropped.

Focus features has this one. and I think she sucks. She has like streaming film energy. And I think that that one's going to miss. All right. Yeah, other maybes I had were the Social Reckoning. Dune Part 3, I think that this could miss. I feel like maybe people aren't as excited about this.

Franchise films are not really that hot right now. then the invite, I think, is maybe there, maybe missing Minotaur. And obsession is something that I'm really, really warm on. But I think that, you know, smart money says that it misses. Okay. So some notable omissions there from my list, Project Hail Mary, Disclosure Day, Cliff Booth, and Michael. And all of a sudden, I think, are kind of the big misses on there. There's also hope from Brady Corbett, who I think, I feel like that one might not even get released this year.

Okay. Interesting. I think I hate to say this, but okay, let me just try to work out what I would put as my five locks. Just to recap, your locks are Wild Horse Nine Digger, the Odyssey, the Blackball, and Fatherland. I think those are solid picks. I do not want this, but I think both Project Hail Mary, I've come around to admitting to myself and Michael, are both much closer to Locke territory than you do. And I do not want to see either of those. I do not want to see another crap-ass musical biopic. I do not, I definitely don't want to have another Reddit ass millennial humor movie like Project Hail Mary get in there.

I fought in the trenches during the everything everywhere all at once wars. And I still have PTSD every time I hear a Mitzki song. I do not want to have to go through that period again. But I feel like that people will not stop talking about that movie. And I think that's going to force it into the conversation. I think the kind of the 30 something verging on 40 something contingent of Oscars are like really into that stuff and are going to. And all those visual effects artists.

who are now voting members are also going to be going to be down and going to be going to be pushing that in there. Would I put either of those ahead of any of your locks? I think I might. I feel like I'm, I still need to be convinced that the black ball is an actual best picture contender. We'll see. We're probably very far away from its actual release. And though I totally understand the reasoning behind it. A lot of people have been pushing for that and have been calling me stupid for dismissing it after Khan and they might be absolutely right. But we will see. So I'm going to say that I 100% agree on the Odyssey and Digger.

Those were the two that I would definitely have in my locks. Wild Horse 9, I don't know. I mean, I don't know much. But I think I would put both Michael and Project Hail Mary in there ahead of, you know what? I'm going to take out. I'm just, I'm editing your top five. I'm keeping Digger. I'm keeping the Odyssey.

I'm taking out Wild Horse Nine and the blackball and Fatherland, which I'm not as, hmm, I do agree Fatherland's probably going to be like pretty popular and probably gets in. But in terms of what is like, like, what is it going to be the big foreign movie that gets the most nominations this year? Fatherland and Fjord are both definitely contenders, blackball. We talked about all this because all these were con movies. We talked about them all coming out of con. And of course, we still have to wait and see what picks up momentum after the fall festivals.

After Berlin and Venice, there's definitely going to be surprises. There's definitely going to be movies there that take off in ways that we didn't predict. But I'm going to add both Project Hail Mary. and Michael to the nominees, I think we're in like they're not over musical biopics as much as so much of so many people are, but that's still a billion dollar movie.

Like there's still like a ton of people who are, who are into that. I think the social reckoning maybe has more of a shot than you do, but I'm not going to put it into my locks category. I, now I realize I might be leaning like way

too into blockbuster territory here. I'm trying to think when I'm going to go with my with my fifth lock. You know what? I'll push Fjord into my fifth lock position. Might just be convincing myself because we've talked about it a lot on the show and but I have like, I guess I have confidence that it's going to be enough of a movie that gets people talking. That's going to be like a discussion point that it's going to force itself into the conversation for that reason.

Having the palm door winning imprimatur is obviously something that counts. It did not get, it was just an accident into the Best Picture Race last year. So it's not a guarantee. But that plus the fact that it has a couple leads, which are, who are both very hot right now and Sebastian's Den and Renata Rince. I think that's enough to get it into the best picture conversation ahead of like any other foreign film, I think, right now. So my five lucks would be Digger, the Odyssey, Project Hail Mary, Michael, and Fjord. Definitely not super confident about that.

And I will say, even though I wouldn't put it into a top five, I think Dune 3 gets in there. The best case for Dune 3 would be that, well, would basically be the Lord of the Rings return of the king scenario where it's like the third movie in the trilogy, like ends up being the one that voters coalesce around the most, maybe in part because they're like, oh, you know what? The first two didn't actually win enough stuff. And let's shower praise in the third one. not saying that I think Dune 3 is going to win like 11 Oscars or whatever the hell, Lord of the Rings did. But I could see it getting a bigger push. I could see Shalema getting a best actor nomination for that as well,

kind of off topic. But I think like this is this is kind of the year where they recognize that character and give him another shot. So I definitely expect Dune 3 to be in the best picture nominees, even if one and two were kind of peripheral. like one and two were probably like, we don't know the voting totals, but I would assume they were voted in like a ninth or tenth position

or something like kind of just slipped in. I could picture a world, especially if the Odyssey isn't as well received as a lot of people expected to be, which as you mentioned is a possibility. I think it's going to happen. I'm looking forward to it. Crash and burn, baby.

There could be enough of a wave of backlash. and if the Odyssey gets swamped by a wave of backlash, I can see June 3 being the movie that benefits from that. June 3 being the movie that people are like, actually, let's celebrate this like effects and crafts, heavy epic instead. It's time to start taking Denny Villeneuve more seriously. And, you know, Christopher Nolan is old news.

Let's rally behind Villenev instead. I could, if I squint, I could kind of see that sort of narrative taking over. and there is a world out there where Dune 3 ends up getting more nominations than the Odyssey. Obviously, I'm not predicting that because I've got the Odyssey as a lock and not Dune 3, but if the Odyssey does take a hit, something else is going to have to benefit,

whether that's maybe Project Hail Mary or maybe Dune 3 or some other blockbuster is going to have to kind of like fill that role. Yeah, I mean, I could see it happening. I think one thing that came to mind while you were talking about this is Robert Patterson is in like a million things. And I think there's a possibility for him to find a nomination because of something. And, you know, he's in the Odyssey. He's in Dune 3.

He's in the drama. Yeah, he's in the drama. What else is he in? Oh, he's in that biopic about to catch a predator guy. that's coming out. So I don't know. Robert Patterson, the anti-Pedro Pascal. He's in everything and he always rules.

Yeah. I don't know where I was going with it. I just want to talk about Robbie. It would be cool, but I think best actor is going to be a crowded field this year. It's going to be really hard for an unexpected nomination to break through because there's just too many, you know, heavy hitters like Tom Cruise and Matt Damon and maybe Paul Giamatti and Timmy? Potentially, like I said, potentially,

I could see him get him shut out this year for sure because it's like he hasn't been nominated for Paul Trades either of the other times, but I could I could definitely, definitely see him getting in. And yeah, I think it's just going to be hard for somebody with a less impressive Oscar resume to muscle their way into that conversation. Potentially Brad Pitt, even like, like I don't have,

I don't see the Cliff Booth movie as the best picture, but I could see it as a best actor nomination. Yeah, I don't feel good about the Cliff Booth movie, and I don't feel good about the social reckoning for similar reasons. Like, these are two sequels to movies that were like really iconic pieces of the original director's filmography, and they are passing the sequel off to another filmmaker. in one case that filmmaker is the that is on the receiving end is also the giver on another with

David Fincher which is which is really funny to me but the lack of like kind of confidence in the property and these aren't like huge like franchises that they're they're handing off it's like but the the signal in the lack of confidence is one that I just feel like is not a good sign. I think the social the social reckoning, it feels like a streaming movie too. It's got the streaming stink on. So the social reckoning, I don't see it as a best picture player, but I definitely see both Jeremy Strong and Mikey Madison being in the conversation and very likely getting nominations. I can absolutely see Jeremy Strong getting a best actor nomination for his Zuckerberg. There's a lot of goodwill around Jeremy Strong. We saw that a few years. ago when the New Yorker wrote a piece that was kind of like critical of him and like everybody in Hollywood started publishing things being like no he's the best you guys suck uh people in Hollywood really uh really think he's an amazing actor and really like him a lot uh and um we haven't really seen him break through in a big way at the Oscars he was a nominee a couple of years ago uh for the apprentice apprentice uh in supporting actor um but i could absolutely absolutely if i was

predicting my best actor nominations, I would have him as one of the five in there. And I think Jeremy Allen White's participation in that project also is not a good sign for me. I mean, I know a lot of people like him, but he's got like TV guy written all over him. He had a huge star turn playing a slug in a Star Wars movie. What are you talking about? He did. I don't know. I don't watch.

I don't watch Star Wars movies. And the new one, you know, the whatever it's called. I don't care. But like he also seems like... Goku and Mendego or whatever. He played like Jabba the Hutt Sud who is a gladiator. He seems so desperate for like recognition too.

Like within within the cinema space. The his, him being Bruce Springsteen in that what I'm going to assume was terrible Bruce Springsteen biopic. It really just makes me, I don't know. That's what you do at that stage in his career, though. You know, like, I don't know, you're trying to make the leap to movie start. I mean, you got to plug into a biopic.

That's what you do. I don't hold that against him. I think that's the system. That's what you got. It didn't work for him because that movie flopped. He was good in the Iron Claw, though. That was a big movie role. Okay.

I didn't see that one. And so that gives me a little bit of pay. I did like him a lot in, in shameless, the TV series. He's, he's really good in that. But I do, I'm also really interested about Mikey Madison and the social reckoning. Because I believe this is her first role that's coming out since she won the Oscar two years ago, which is, which is, which is, which is kind of wild, actually. Usually when somebody, especially somebody who is like not that established wins, when's best actress, like, they've already got their next movie. in the pipe or

you know if you're Jesse Buckley you have it already coming out that week and embarrassing you as you as you win but for her to have like not have another project on the go to have held off I'm sure she got tons of offers

to have held off and to finally be coming back in this kind of role in this kind of movie is very interesting to me and I can absolutely see there being Oscars buzz around like best supporting actress probably. Could be best actress, but I could see it as more of a supporting thing. The trailer definitely foregrounds her a lot. So yeah, I definitely see that movie as a player

for those two performers, but probably that's it. Maybe screenplay. You know, Aaron Sorkin does get some screenplay of love from time to time. And his original screenplay for the social network is very well-loved, I think. so that goodwill will probably carry over, but I don't see getting more than a maximum of three nominations. Okay. Yeah, I think three seems about right. Hmm.

All right. Any hot take misses that you have? Damn. You know, I don't know. I guess maybe I just don't want to talk about another Martin McDonough movie, but I'm not sure that Wild Horse 9 is going to be like a big player. But I have no idea. I have no idea. I don't think those, like, I'm not as stoked about like Sam Rockwell and John

Melkovich. I actually do like John Malcovic a lot, but I feel like those aren't like the kind of actors that people are getting really excited about in 2026. And I'm not sure if that that kind of movie is the thing that's going to get people really, really stoked and, and generate the kind of excitement that, I guess, like three billboards and, and the banshees of Inashireen did, though I wouldn't have predicted it for those movies before I had either. So maybe I'm just not on the same frequency of whatever people who are into those movies are on. So probably wrong about that. But yeah,

McDonald's like been on a heater with the Academy though. His last two movies, like you said, seven nominations for three billboards and nine for banshees, I think. Yeah. Or maybe it was the other way around. But yeah, I don't know. I feel like it feels like a lot to me. but you could be right.

People are maybe not super excited for John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell in 2026, 2027. Yeah. I still am. Yeah. Yeah. I guess that's about as warm as my takes are going to get. All right. All right.

Anything else we haven't yet covered here? I think the only other piece of news that I saw worth talking about would be the decision that Christopher Nolan made to, not do influencer screenings, only holding, like, critic only screenings for The Odyssey. A lot of people are taking this as a signal of,

like, supreme confidence in this film, but I don't know if that's the case. It could also be, like, fear motivated. I'm interested to see how this pans out. Yeah.

I mean, it might be a bad sign for how the movie's going to be received. It's, it's a good thing that he did it. Influencer only screenings before movies come out should be illegal under my republic. It's the worst bullshit when it's the most annoying thing like before a movie comes out and before even critics can see it.

It's like, oh, it's 90% on rotting tomatoes. Yeah, because the only people you invited where people like are absolute sycophantic internet losers who are invited to these things specifically because, what? Come on. People who you know are going to like gratefully give a glowing review because that's basically what they're exchanging the invite for. It's so transactional and so stupid and so misleading whenever those like, you know, early figures start coming out, the early Rotten Tomatoes returns. It's a dumb bullshit industry tactic.

Not saying that Nolan is necessarily doing it because he has strong. morals and he's such an upstanding guy. Maybe he might just be doing it because he thinks that they won't like it as much as he wants them to as you suggested. But whatever the reason, good. Though I admit that that combined with the fact that he didn't open

the movie at Cannes when he probably very much could have a few water two, you could put those two things together and be like, oh, are they worried about early reactions being negative? Yeah, I mean, I think one thing that points to just being like confidence and not needing

it is like people are stoked about this movie it is like breaking pre-sale records for for iMacs they sold out iMac's reading is like a year and a half in advance or something yeah there's people like scalping tickets on ebay for for this it's yeah it's crazy yeah um yeah i mean the opening will be and then the question will be will it have legs will it be like an in openheimer situation where it just doesn't go away and it continues to rain popular for weeks and weeks and weeks, or is it going to be the kind of thing that has a huge opening and then mediocre word of mouth and quickly fades, which is what happens to so many blockbusters these days. We'll see it a few weeks.

We'll see. All right. Well, I think that's about enough for this week. Craig, any last thoughts you want to leave our listeners with? No. You can just like, subscribe, leave us a comment. That's about it. That's all the energy I've got. All right.

I mentioned that I just wrote about Disclosure Day. So if anybody wants to hear some more of my ramblings about Spielberg, his career and the symbolic sufferers and why I think it's actually a Holocaust movie in disguise, you could go over to my substack. Just look for my name, Dylan, D.Y L-A-N. Ferguson, it's free. Give it a read. Give it a like. If that interest, you give it a subscribe. If you want to have more of my reviews once every like three months or when. I get around to write yet. It's been fun. Craig, thanks. We'll see you guys next week or next time

talking more about movies and the Oscars on Oscars Oskers Oskers Outsider. Later. Have a good one.