Oscars Outsider - Our Way-Too-Early 2027 Best Actor/Actress Oscar Predictions
Episode Date: July 7, 2026Who is the most overdue actor in Hollywood? According to a Nate Silver model from 2012, it isn't Leonardo DiCaprio — it's Matt Damon. And he still hasn't won. Now Damon (The Odyssey) and... Tom Cruise (Digger) are both heading into the 2027 Oscar race with massive 'he's finally due' narratives — and Dylan and Craig are making their way-too-early calls on who gets in and who takes home the statue.This week: full five-nominee slates for Best Actor and Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards, predicted winners, and dark horses nobody else is talking about yet. On the Best Actor side: why the Cruise vs. Damon clash mirrors one of the great rivalries in Oscar history, whether Jeremy Strong (The Social Reckoning) runs as lead or supporting, and why Timothée Chalamet might quietly accumulate his way into the race via Dune 3. On the Best Actress side: why both hosts pick Sandra Hüller but for different movies — and why a new Academy rule could make her the first performer nominated twice in the same category since the 1930s. Plus: the Al Pacino / Scent of a Woman parallel that makes Tom Cruise the 2027 frontrunner, the Ingrid Bergman / Gaslight parallel pointing toward a Hüller win, Craig's case for Julianne Moore (The Debut), and why Elon Musk promoting the new Uwe Boll film as the antidote to The Odyssey might be the funniest thing to happen in Hollywood this year.Films discussed: Digger, The Odyssey, Fjord, The Debut, The Social Reckoning, Michael, Wild Horse Nine, Obsession, Rose, Fatherland, A Place in Hell, Gentle Monster, Project Hail Mary, I Swear, The Invite, Jack of Spades, All of a Sudden🎬 Subscribe for weekly Oscars race coverage | New episodes every week
Transcript
Discussion (0)
There was, on 538, there was an article by Nate Silver, which unfortunately doesn't seem to exist anymore.
He created a model of who's most likely to win an actor at some point.
Who is most overdue?
There's different variables, but the big one was who has been in the most movies that have had a lot of Oscar nominations.
And he concluded that no decavrio is not the most due actor.
In fact, he has less due than Mark Ruffalo, less do than Brad Pitt.
Both Ruffalo and Pitt have won Oscar since.
But his model said that the most overreux.
overdue actor is Matt Damon.
And that is, that was like 13 years ago at this point.
Yeah.
And Matt Damon still has not won and still has not gotten that kind of like, oh, when
is he going to get one narrative that DiCaprio benefited from?
Welcome to Oscars outsider, a podcast about the awards race in Hollywood history.
And today we are going to be talking about best actor and best actress 2027.
We're giving our way too early predictions.
who he thinks is going to get nominated, who he thinks is going to win,
and who might be some dark horses.
Plus, we're going to try to draw some historical parallels
and mention some past Academy Awards
that might provide the template for how things will go in 2027,
because that's just how we do it here on Oscar's Outsider.
We are the outsiders giving you the outside scoop.
My name's Dylan Ferguson, and that is Craig Midwinter.
Craig, how's going?
Going good.
I'm excited to dive in.
Excited to be very wrong at this stage of the game.
game, but yeah, let's go for it.
Let's see how wrong we can get.
Greg, are you still suffering from World Cup fever or are you in recovery phase?
I am.
I was watching that Mexico-England game yesterday.
We were recording this on Monday, and yeah, it was a fantastic game.
So despite the fact that Canada is out, I am still all in.
I am hooked.
I don't know what's going on half the time because I don't have a lot of contacts on soccer
or football for the proper world.
But yeah, I'm having a lot of fun watching.
Yeah, I live in a town.
I'm also in Canada, a little peek behind the Emerald Curtain there,
but I live in a town that has a lot of Europeans.
And it's funny and embarrassing to me to see how all these European visitors
have to just put up with Canadians giving terrible takes at every bar I go to watching the game.
Really funny.
But yeah, the game last night was awesome.
I was disappointed in the result for, well, both games were awesome, but I was specifically
watching the England-Mexico one.
And I really would like to see video footage of Kier Starmor calling a FIFA president,
Chaddy and Fantino and try to get him to reverse a red card the way Donald Trump did,
presumably did.
And seeing how that goes.
Anyways, let's get back to movies.
So we are talking tonight.
like I said about best actor, best actress, two early predictions.
Before we do, we like to start off with news.
It's been a week since our last show, Craig.
Is there any news that you've been watching up around the awards race?
Yeah, there was some news.
So one of the things that I saw was that Jesse Eisenberg has come out and confirmed that there will be a festival launch for the debut, which if you were listening to our last episode, we were kind of talking about whether the invite or the debut is going to be.
the priority for A-24.
And it really does seem like they are positioning the debut a lot better for an awards race, which
to me, I think that is probably the smart call.
It's got a lot more of the vibe around it being an awards movie.
So that is kind of one of the pieces of news.
The other thing that I saw that was interesting was we had debated this.
And I know that this has been a little bit of a conversation as to whether or not Fjord would actually qualify for the international feature category.
And I believe it was announced that it will qualify.
So there was a lot of debate about whether or not there was too much English language content within the film and that it would not, it would not qualify.
But it does look like it will be qualified for that.
So those were the two kind of big things.
I think there was another one about the cast and crew screening of The Odyssey, having a standing ovation there.
It was supposedly the longest standing ovation for a singular performance since Heath Ledger for the Dark Night.
It was for Samantha Morton's performance in The Odyssey.
So, yeah, that's kind of all I've seen in terms of news here.
Did you see anything else that was going on?
I'm curious about what you're telling me about Fjord, because I miss that.
Are there, is there an actual language criteria in terms of a percentage of language that has to be not in English to make best international feature?
Because I'm not too clear on what the actual rules are on that.
Because I think they're, they keep, that's one of those categories where they keep modifying it.
I know that there are some big changes coming to, not these Oscars, but the following ones, the 2027 Oscars that will be held in 2028, as we've talked about, the eligibility is going to be dramatically overhauled.
But in terms of language, I've always been unclear about where it stands right now in terms of the 2027 Oscars.
Is there a certain percentage of dialogue that has to be a non-English for it to make it in?
Yeah.
So according to the variety of,
article that I read, it's 50% in a language other than English at least.
50%.
Yeah.
So it does qualify, apparently.
But yeah, I know that that's something that has been.
Anatomy of a fall qualified under that same criteria.
Well, I'm not sure if when this number.
Yeah, I think that it has been in flux a while.
So this has dialogue within English, Romanian, Norwegian, or
region and Swedish and at least 50% of the dialogue is in a language that is not English.
So under the current rules, it qualifies.
But, you know, if the wind changes next year, then it might be, it might be different.
Okay. Okay.
Yeah.
Wait, sorry.
You were bringing up the Odyssey.
You're saying there's a, they had the cast and cruise greeting.
We still haven't ever had.
I guess people who have seen it are still under embargo right now.
There's been a little bit of people talking.
I can't remember what his name is.
He's like the head of the Critics Choice Awards.
He saw it and said that it's one of the greatest films of all time
on par with Lawrence of Arabia.
So, I mean, the people that we are seeing coming out
talking about this movie are kind of glowing about it.
But at the same time, it feels like the general audience
is a little cautious about it
because I know that one of the trailers for The Odyssey
is one of the most disliked trailers in all of Christopher Nolan's, like, career on YouTube.
Apparently, whatever that's worth in terms of a metric means nothing for awards and means
probably nothing for the box office.
But it doesn't feel like there's this like rapturous or as rapturous a eager, awaiting
crowd as there was for something like Oppenheimer.
Well, there definitely is, and we've talked about this before, I've been organized.
campaign against the movie, who's probably the leading proponent of that is Elon Musk.
I've brought it up before.
And I think we've definitely seen that kind of internet movement against the Odyssey,
mostly based around the idea that it's a woke DEI movie, has really reached a kind
of critical mass.
And you see that on the YouTube reactions, early trailers for The Odyssey, if you look to the top
comments on YouTube, it was all like, well, going to be, going to be an epic,
Alzheimer. And if you see the latest trailers that just dropped, all the top YouTube comments are
like disgusting humiliation rituals. This is going to be one of the worst movies ever. And you
could really see a lot of people kind of following that herd, that muskled herd of trashing the
movie and calling it woke bullshit. Although I feel like it's coming from kind of two slightly
different prongs that are that are part of that same phalanx and um it's interesting to be a bit because
Craig at one point you said that you see Christopher Nolan as like the favorite director of cyber truck guys
yeah I think you're right I think it's like that's like I see what you mean so I feel like there's a bit
of a dissonance for some of those people who are like cyber trucked guys and also think that
Nolan is awesome and now Elon Musk is telling them no you've got to hate this movie and
And I think the kind of alternate narrative that that group of Odyssey haters have settled on is that phrase humiliation ritual that I, that I've seen in a lot of these YouTube comments and other places online, which I think they've kind of settled around this idea that, yes, Nolan remains a genius of the cinema, but Hollywood is forcing him to make a super woke liberal movie to push him back into line.
You know, they've strapped into the chair.
They're reprogramming him.
they're making him
they're making him do this
DEI trash
which is really funny to me
and but but that
groundswell of negativity
has swamped
online comments
and what will that mean
for the actual opening of the movie
maybe nothing you know
we do see movies that get bombed
they get hit really hard by
you know racists and other
corners of nasty people online
and they still do find it
the box out
office. Some of them tank too. And, you know, whether the tanking of some of those movies is related
to like to nasty reactionary people online or not is it can be hard to parse. But it's, it's,
the long wait for the Odyssey is just bringing us all these, these, these new complications and
twists and turns. And it's just going to be so interesting to see how the reception actually
plays out. Yeah. I think there's an interesting dimension to the,
in terms of the award race, because, and maybe even within the context of the box office,
because Nolan did definitely have the opportunity to premiere this at cons.
And that would have really put the conversation and the dialogue within the hands of critics,
as opposed to, you know, leaving it to be released a little bit later.
and the first audience being the general public
and happening during the summer blockbuster window,
it allowed this, the dialogue around this movie
to be all like wholly political
and like take place from people who haven't seen this movie.
And I'll be interested to see whether or not that pays off
because there is a ton of dialogue with this movie.
Obviously like, you know,
that would happen with any kind of Christopher Nolan film that is going to come out.
But the fact that there's so much like political dialogue is like kind of amplifying that.
Yeah.
It does, it does have the opportunity or the potential to backfire there.
So I'm interested to see whether or not that actually happens.
I think once this is out, it's going to, the dialogue around it is going to temper a little bit.
And I think it's going to be more just about the film.
I don't think that this like political dialogue is something that is, you know,
is actually taking place outside of a real vocal minority on online who are looking to just,
you know, forward their own political means.
I do want to like get back to like what you mentioned about me saying that Christopher Nolan is like a director,
the favorite director of cyber truck owners because like,
I think that if I think a lot of people that might hear that would be like, oh, well, if he's embracing kind of a more liberal casting policy of Hollywood, how could that possibly be?
And when I say that I kind of mean that he is the director that I see people that are looking to take like, like press the easy button and make a, make a personality out of feeling superior to someone like,
that is the director that they immediately gravitate towards in cinema in the same way that like
I'm going to get like a cyber truck and like I feel I feel better I'm making that my personality or
crypto or whatever it just is like the you know it's the easy ticket to like um have some sort of
like whatever intellectual leverage that they think they get out of appreciating Christopher
Nolan and I mean I think that there's just a lot of directors that have a lot more
substance than
Nolan does.
Sure.
And more,
more identity.
So that's why I say he's,
he's kind of easy,
easy mode.
Yeah.
My,
my favorite new wrinkle in Elon Musk's
campaign against the Odyssey is that he's
now when promoting the new Oveh Bowl movie
Citizen Vigilante as like the,
the proper kind of good movie,
contrasting it with the Odyssey as like woke trash.
And it's a really funny example to me of that thing that like conservatives do where they have to pretend they like the worst art ever.
And be like, yeah, the new Chrysler Rocker album is amazing actually.
Just for like cheap political reasons, they have to force themselves to only ingest really terrible art.
So is that based on a video game too?
Is that or?
I have no idea.
It has Army Hammer in it.
It is apparently a racist revenge.
fantasy about a white guy who starts like killing, uh, immigrant rapists or something.
Okay.
That sounds sick as hell to look for that Oscar season.
But I also just remain really charmed, by the way, that, that, uh, that, that
Nolan fads have squared the circle and are barely imagining a situation where Christopher
Nolan has been treated like, uh, Liam Neeson and the end of silence and, and that
the Hollywood bigwigs are just, you know,
cutting his forehead and hanging him upside down until he goes crazy and forcing him to
step on a graven image of Brad Pitt playing Achilles.
All right.
Let's move on from this.
We've talked enough about the Odyssey again.
I keep falling into that trap.
Any other news?
Or should we move on to our main segment, Craig?
No, let's dive in.
Let's do it.
Yeah.
Okay.
Best actor, best actress.
Let's get some predictions going here.
Like I mentioned, I want to predict the not.
nominees, then we'll predict the winners. And I would also like us to each pick one potential wildcard or spoiler or somebody that we could see sneaking in that maybe other people don't see coming.
One thing that's fun about predicting best actor and best actress, and that's complicated about it, is that it's not only just predicting, like, which films and performances we think are going to generate awards, buzz, but which category the studio is going to push them in since there's so much games.
over whether somebody gets pushed as a lead or as a supporting.
So that's part of our calculation here.
And I'd like us to really each produce a list of five names that we're going to use to keep us
honest.
And I'm sure these are almost all going to be wrong because this is way too early, but let's
try our best anyways.
Craig, why do we take turns going one at a time each naming somebody in our list?
Do you have a list of five names for each category prepared?
Yeah, I do.
So do I.
Oh, I got a lot of scribbles on a page over here.
But I think I've more or less settled on what I'm going to go with.
Let's start with you, Craig.
Give me one name.
Let's do actor first.
Let's go with actor first.
So give me one name that you think is going to be among the five nominees for best actor.
Okay, I'm going to start with the most obvious one here.
And that is Tom Cruise for Digger.
This is kind of the dominant preseason narrative that has emerged around this race.
Obviously, like, super early.
But the campaign is already in full swing.
This doesn't come out until October 2nd.
So no one has seen.
this yet, but it's a transformative
performance from
someone who could be considered an
overdue veteran.
I would be shocked
if he's not a nominee.
I might as well use my first
pick on the same one
that you did. Tom Cruise and Digger feels
like it feels
like something we've seen
this coming for like a year already
and we're already so far out.
There could always be
wrinkles and surprises in the race. Maybe.
the movie is very poorly received when it opens. It's not impossible. But this does your
right feel like such a slam dunk thing. The narrative that this is Tom Cruise's moment. This is time
for Mr. Movies to get a statuette. It just feels like almost an inevitability at this point.
Yeah. Okay. Give me someone else. Okay. So next on my list is maybe not surprising because we've
talked about this a lot, but Sebastian Stanford, Fjord. Okay. Being within the
Palm to Orr film and having a back catalog of performances.
Like he's been nominated before.
Just feel like this is probably going to be the film that Neon is pushing the most.
And it makes sense to me that he will be nominated.
Plus, he's bald in the movie.
So that's a plus.
There we go.
Transformation.
I mean, it's not a fake nose or getting fat or something dramatic like that.
But still, it's cool.
It's cool to be bald.
and have kind of daddy glasses.
Good pick.
I ultimately cut Sebastian Stan for my top five, though I say.
That was probably the hardest of the name I had to cut
because I could also really see that
just in terms of his position where he is right now
as kind of a rising figure in the industry.
Let me give you my number two,
which is another one that I feel is kind of an easy prediction.
Matt Damon.
Matt Damon for the Odyssey.
I mean, if,
we assume the Odyssey is going to be an award season heavy hitter, you have to assume its star is
going to be as well. Like with Killian Murphy for Oppenheimer, it just feels like Nolan has positioned
somebody who, uh, who is, I mean, it's not exactly a one for one comparison. Matt Damon is more
of a Hollywood star than, than Murphy was. But, you know, somebody who we're kind of familiar with,
who sometimes does supporting roles and just kind of being like, this is, this is going to be
the centerpiece of my movie. It, it makes sense for him.
also like Tom Cruise to have a,
this is his time narrative.
So we could definitely,
I think,
see kind of competing,
uh,
this is his time narratives between Cruz and Damon.
I mean,
Damon's career starts a decade later than Cruz.
So he isn't as much of a veteran.
But still he has been around for a long time.
And he's been in a lot of movies that have been in the Oscars race.
Even if he only has,
uh,
two career nominations,
I believe,
uh,
so far.
I think it's three or maybe this would be the third.
Yeah.
I mean,
Goodwill Hunting, he has an acting nomination as well as winning for best screenplay with Ben Affleck.
And for Invictus, I know he has a nomination as well.
Wasn't he nominated for the Martian as well?
Oh, yeah, you know what?
I think you're right about that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
So three prior nominations, yeah.
When there was kind of that frenzy about, oh, how come Leonardo DiCaprio hasn't won an Oscar yet, you know, around like 2012,
before he finally did win it in 2013 for the Revenant.
There was, on 538, there was an article by Nate Silver,
which unfortunately doesn't seem to exist anymore.
Yeah, I was actually trying to look this up yesterday
because I wanted to reference the actual article,
but it just seems to be broken links now.
It doesn't seem to still be up there.
But basically, he created a model of who's most likely to win an actor at some point.
who is most overdue?
Is it actually Leonardo DiCaprio,
who is the most overdue actor?
And the model was basically built around,
there's different variables,
but the big one was who has been in the most movies
that have had a lot of Oscar nominations.
And he concluded that no DeCabrio is not the most due actor.
In fact, he has less due than Mark Ruffalo,
less due than Brad Pitt.
Both Ruffalo and Pitt have won Oscar since.
But his model said that the most overdue actor is Matt Damon.
And that was like,
13 years ago at this point.
And Matt Damon still has not won and still has not gotten that kind of like, oh, when is he going to get one narrative that DeCaprio benefited from?
So, yeah, this could be a very fun clash between two longstanding Hollywood veterans who both have that similar he's due narrative.
And Damon, I think, has also really found a role for himself in the industry as kind of a smart guy who gives good interviews and talks about the industry.
kind of does a lot of like inside baseball interviews talking about like various revenue streams
and the differences between ways movies are produced now and the way they were then.
So I think yet there's a lot of kind of there's a lot of goodwill towards Damon.
A lot of people appreciate him not just as an actor, but as kind of that Hollywood figure,
a kind of smart guy who tells it straight.
And it would be very interesting if Hollywood is forced to kind of
divide themselves between that side and rallying behind Mr. Movies doing his doing something goofy.
Yeah.
So that's interesting because Matt, Matt Damon is maybe more Mr.
movies.
Like just given the amount of information that he like gives out within interviews, um,
his work also like obviously writing and, and producing.
Um, he does have a more well-rounded career.
but like you said, he always seems to come in kind of second in whatever conversation that we're talking about.
It's interesting that that article is not around anymore because I remember that making the rounds 10 years ago.
And it's always kind of lived in the back of my brain anytime Matt Damon has surfaced within acting conversations.
I wonder if that is the result of Tom Cruise getting the Scientologist to purge the Internet of it so that it does not reemerge as part of this campaign.
Because I'll use my next pick for nominations to just further say I have, I also have Matt Damon in getting nominated.
All right.
So we have two points in common.
I'll give you a number three.
you. I'm going to go with Jeremy Strong for the social reckoning playing Mark Zuckerberg,
taking over the role that Jesse Eisenberg didn't want to reprise a second time. My biggest
hesitation about this is are they going to run it as lead or are they going to run it as supporting?
I really feel strongly that Jeremy Strong that he's going to get a nomination. I really think
he's going to get a nomination. My hesitation is which category.
are they going to push him in?
But I'm settling on
him being a Best Picture nomination
and I think there's going to be a big push there.
I think a lot of people really appreciate
Jeremy Strong both as kind of a champion
of contemporary method acting and the guy with a lot of friends in the industry
who seems to be well liked
and imitating a famous person
is always a good thing to do.
Okay, so we've got another point in common
because I also had Jeremy Strong
and had the same debate
about whether or not
he would be run as lead
or supporting.
I feel like it's hard
to make a Facebook movie
and not make a case
for him being the lead.
But I mean,
it remains to be seen.
It could be that he doesn't have
the screen time in order to support that
or he's got a low percentage
of screen time enough
that you could make a case.
but it seems like naturally he would be the lead in that.
Yeah.
I'll just say that I was debating for two people in terms of like who's going to be run as supporting,
who's going to be run as lead.
And those are Jeremy Strong and Paul J.
Maddie for the debut.
And I'll just say that I don't have Paul Giamatti on my list just because I've decided that
I think it's more likely Jamadi gets run as supporting and more likely strong gets run
as lead, which is why I ended up picking strong and not Jimatti in my.
in my five picks.
Yeah, I fully agree.
All right.
So you've given me four.
I've given you three.
Let me give me you my number four.
I'm going to say that we're going to get a nomination for Jafar Jackson playing Michael Jackson.
Okay.
Interesting.
There has to be a newcomer in here, right?
You usually have at least one newcomer in the best actor nominations.
They only usually give Best Actor the award.
a newcomer, but it's hard to imagine a full five nominee slate, which is nothing but
these kind of veterans. I mean, Strong and Stan are not exactly veterans yet, but there are people
who have been nominated before. There's got to be a first timer in there. And it's hard to ignore
the first timer in who's doing an impression of a famous, very, very famous person in a musical
biopic. It just reeks of Oscar.
even though, you know, we've talked about Michael before and it's such a, it's such an interesting
debate of whether a movie that feels so much like an Oscar movie in terms of being a musical
biopic, which was hugely popular, can actually become that despite being largely
dismissed and disliked by critics. And I did say in our last episode where we were predicting
the best picture nominees, so go back, listen to our last episode if you want to hear us,
predicting the best picture nominees.
I did pick Michael as the best picture nominee.
I still feel wishy-washy on that.
I'm really not sure how it's going to go.
But I could see a world where the only nomination that Michael gets is for best actor.
So I'm predicting Jafar Jackson gets in as that kind of newcomer slot.
Okay.
That's a great pick.
So he is someone that is not on my list.
So my number five is going to be different than what you've got here.
And this is not a.
newcomer, but I think John Malcovic could get in for Wild Horse 9. I think being attached to
a McDonough film with, you know, a strong ensemble, a lot of buzz is, and something that is definitely
going to be within other awards conversations, or at least it feels that way right now. I think that
that there's a good case for him. I think he's been nominated twice and has no wins. Again, a guy that
like always gives like really great performances.
Former co-star of Matt Damon just to kind of tie that in there.
But yeah, I think that John Malkovich could potentially get an overdue narrative as well.
Okay.
I could see that.
I could see that for sure.
Very interesting.
It's going to be very interesting to see how big of a player,
Wild Horse 9 ends up being.
So my last slot number five, you might not be surprised.
with his longtime listeners of the show might not be surprised with this.
I think, I think Timmy shallomay is going to slip in there.
I think he's getting it.
I think they haven't nominated him for Paula Trades yet.
They've nominated him, of course, for other roles.
He's gotten very close in two consecutive years for playing Bob Dylan and for playing
Marty Mouser last year.
I don't know.
I could just kind of see, as I said last year, I could kind of see Dune 3 doing a bit
better than Dune's 1 and 2 did of the Oscars, especially if The Odyssey
he does less well than we expect it to.
And I think there's enough people who are kind of motivated to keep voting for Timmy
Chalamee because he didn't win last year, because he hasn't won two years.
These things do kind of get cumulative.
You know, performers can kind of just accumulate nominees until they start getting that
that kind of critical mass behind them where people are just want to keep nominating them,
as we've seen with like Liodardo DiCaprio before.
I'm not saying I think this is Timothy Chalbeys,
year to win. I think that'll probably happen later. I think, you know, Cruz and Damon have narratives
that are too strong. But I think the support for Chalabay and maybe a kind of an enthusiasm for
Dune 3 could be enough to just get him into the race, to get him into the nominations. Yeah,
I could see that happening for sure. And it's just the third Dune movie is just going to be his chance
to, you know, go full on playing the emperor. And you could just really chew that roll up. Yeah.
All right. So before we do some wild cards, I just think maybe we should mention some names that were surprised. Neither of us mentioned.
You know, we've each got our five. So we only overlap on two, right? We overlap on Cruz and Damon.
Cruz, Damon, strong. Oh, strong as well. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Who are you surprised, Craig, that neither me nor you put into our top five nominees.
You know, I think we covered most of the big four runners.
The one that is maybe missing is Brad Pitt, depending on what things look like for Cliff Booth.
I am feeling less and less confident that this movie is going to make any sort of, any sort of splash.
But he's kind of the person that I thought might be missing.
I think that there's other.
He's one playing that role before, though, was supporting.
but I think there's other people that are maybe, I think, supporting,
or you could make a case for supporting.
Like Robert Patterson, I think, is someone that might be within the conversation somewhere,
whether that is lead or supporting.
It's hard to say, but he's just in so much stuff this year.
What about Gosling?
If Project Hail Mary does end up being an Oscars player,
it's going to be hard to ignore Ryan Gosling.
I think just like he's at every scene in that movie.
He's basically at every shot.
Like it's rare to have a big blockbuster that is so much just one guy.
And you don't see it making the best actor nominations?
I just don't see it.
I don't see Project Hail Mary being like that big of a movie come award season.
But you never know.
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility.
but it doesn't feel like it's going to make a splash,
just mostly because of when it was released.
That's a huge part of it
and how it doesn't seem to be a movie
that is staying on the tip of people's time.
I mean, I feel the opposite.
I feel like I didn't think it was anything
that was going to be in the Oscars race at first,
but I feel like people have not shut up about it.
I feel like there's still conversation about it months later,
and that makes me think that it has enough kind of staying power
in people's minds,
that might carry through into Oscar season.
I mean, I'm seeing people talking about it within the awards, forums, and stuff like that.
But outside of that, I'm not.
And I feel like you need a little bit of momentum in both places in order to do it.
Like, with sinners, you had that kind of two-prong thing.
There was still a lot of, like, word of mouth.
People were, like, always talking about that, that film.
And that kind of carried it through as opposed to being.
kind of on the list because it's it's early and people don't have a lot of information or to like make predictions and that's why people are still talking about Project Hail Mary I think is people within a word circle need a movie they've got information about in order to make picks but that's that's that's my feeling right now yeah yeah no I think I see it a little bit more differently maybe my algorithms are just more annoyingly configured but I still see people like posting just memes about Project Hail Mary and stuff and
and, you know, factoids about the little rock puppet and stuff.
I feel like that's still continued to trickle through
and that people still have not entirely shut up about that film.
So like I said last time, I could see that there just being enough, like,
millennial voters in the Oscar body now that they're going to be like,
hell yeah, we got to get that super sick epic bacon movie into the nominations.
Speaking of epic bacon movies, I have just been realizing that they've been calling this new Daniels movie, a Daniels event film. Have you seen that? What does that mean?
What is the new Daniels movie? Is that, um...
It's an event film, actually, not a movie. Oh, okay. Sorry. Sorry, Jesus, yeah.
Is that coming up this year? Is that next year? No, it's not. It's next year. Okay. Hell yeah. Cannot wait.
Just previewing what's going to be on my hate slate.
for next year.
All right.
Why do we do we do some wildcards here?
Who do you think could be a dark horse, an unexpected party crasher among the Oscar
Dobity is give me a wild card?
Okay.
So here's one that I think could potentially fit the mold of at least award season newcomer
in North America that could show up on this best actor list.
That's Josh O'Connor for his performance in Jack of Spades, which is the new Joel Cohen film.
I feel like he's also in Disclosure Day.
He was in Challenger's.
He's just like done a lot.
And I feel like people are starting to pay attention to his name.
He's in a great cast.
And, you know, the Coens have been able to catapult so many names into the forefront.
So I wouldn't put it past this being a little bit more of a springboard to the prestige tier.
So that's who I pick.
Okay, interesting.
Between a couple picks, first of all, do you think it would be funny or annoying if Rami Malik gets another Oscar nomination for playing a gay man with AIDS in the 1980s, but this time in a good movie?
Because I can kind of see that happening for Ira Sex, the man I love, which played at Khan and which had a lot of good reviews.
I really like Iris Sex movies.
I'm looking forward to seeing this.
I could kind of see
Rami Malik,
his performances
seem to have been really
was really talked about
a lot of Kahn
at the same time
there's there's kind of
too much overlap
with Freddie Mercury
the movie that he won
the Oscar for.
I don't know.
Would that be annoying or funny to you?
I would have to see it.
I'd have to see it.
But yeah.
That's not going to be my pick though.
Okay.
Well, my grape with Remy
Malik is that he feels
very one note. Like a lot of his performances are same and kind of centered around his like just
aesthetic and, you know, his Zoolander blue steel face that he's constantly making. But it's possible
that there's a lot of like dimension in this performance and it's something different. I would be
excited if this is something that gets nominated because it probably means that he's doing something
a little bit different. And I really liked him in Mr. Robot. I didn't see.
Bohemian Rhapsody, but I like anything else that I've kind of seen him in, it just feels
very same-y.
Okay.
So my actual pick for Wildcard, speaking of funny or annoying, is that, is that Robert
A.
A.
Is that Robert A.
I swim.
Nice theme.
So I.
So I.
is currently in a fairly limited release in America right now.
It wouldn't qualify for the Oscars.
And some people are really enjoying the movie now that it's come over to this side of the pod.
People who are paying attention to the awards race last year might remember the shock it was greeted with when Robert Aramow won best actor at the BAFTAs,
beating out a field that was otherwise just people who were nominated for Best Actor at the Oscars.
And at the time, everybody in America was like,
what the hell is I swear.
Now we know,
now we know,
partially thanks to a scandal that played out at the BFTAs.
But it sounds like a lot of people in America are starting to dig Robert Aramayo's performance too.
Could he be a party crusher at the Oscars?
I'm not saying I'm predicting it.
It's not on my top five,
but I'll call it as a wild card.
Yeah, I mean,
it's definitely possible.
He got the BFTA.
So, you know,
it would definitely be.
interesting. Yeah, for sure. Okay, let's cross over to Best Actress here. So let's pick our
five nominees for Best Actress. Craig, why don't you go again? Give me one. Okay. Oh, wait. You know what?
Before we do that, let's pick the winners. I think we might have both kind of already tipped our
hand multiple times. Look, I'm picking Tom Cruise as the winner. Craig, are you doing the same thing?
Yeah, I've got Tom Cruise right now. Great. That's out of the way. So back to
actresses. Who's your first pick for a nominee for best actress 2027? Okay. So again, starting with the,
what I think is the most obvious pick here is Renato Rencivay. I think that just Fjord again is going
to be the big push for neon and being in the palm, all the same reasons that I had Sebastian
Stan. So I'm interested if she's on your list because you did not have Sebastian Stan, but I feel
like she's got the most buzz right now. I did not have Sebastian Sand, but I do not have Sebastian
but I do have Renetta and Svist, so I will say that that's my number one too. Yeah, also just
somebody who's just well positioned had a big Hollywood break by doing backrooms this year.
And it's just somebody whose profile is really on the rise in Hollywood. So yeah, I absolutely
see her getting a nomination. Awesome. Number two. Okay. So number two is someone that we
talked about quite a bit last week, but Julianne Moore for the debut.
She does have a win, but there's a lot of talk about this being like a career defining performance for her.
I feel like this is the movie that A24 is going to be pushing hard and she seems very well liked.
So I think that she's she's in this conversation.
All right, I might as well jump on that and say that I also have Julianne Moore for the debut as one of the nominees.
Okay.
So I feel like those are the two that I was expecting.
and the other three were a little bit harder to nail down.
So I'm interested to see where we've got some overlap here.
My third pick is Sandra Hewler for Rose.
I think that, I mean, she's in a ton of things.
She was nominated before for Anatomy of Fall.
And she's got a bit of a physical transformation.
It's a light physical transformation in this.
But I think Hollywood is really paying attention to her right now.
and really eager to give her her flowers.
So I see her in this list.
Your flowers, eh, for rose?
Okay.
Yeah.
You got it.
All right.
This is really interesting because I also have Sandra Heeler on my list, but I'm calling
Sandra Hewler for Fatherland.
Okay.
Yeah.
Which could also be in supporting potentially.
I don't know.
I haven't seen the movie, of course, but it sounds like that's the performance in
Fatherland that people are talking about.
The most potentially a movie that could be in the best.
picture race. We talked about that in the previous episode. We talked about several weeks ago when they
announced some rule changes for the Oscars. We talked about how if there is somebody who could
benefit from this new rule change where you can be nominated for two different performances in the
same acting category, it could be Sandra Healer. She might be the first person to benefit from that
in the first year where you can do that since the 1930s. And so that's why I think it's really fun that
we're both picking her, but for two separate movies.
Yeah.
The year of Heller is upon us.
It's, yeah.
I mean, she could get nominated for two.
She could be in someone's, uh, pick twice here.
She's not in my, no, I'm kidding.
Okay.
All right.
So, um, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so,
Number four, I've got Michelle Williams for a place in hell, which this is coming out.
I think it's got a Christmas release date and Neon is pushing this.
I was a little bit up in the air as to whether or not to include this one because I think
Neon is going to have like really divided attention just with the full slate of films that they've
got this year.
But I see Michelle Williams as someone that, again, Hollywood should probably be eager to award her.
and she always gives great performances.
She has she won before for Manchester by the sea maybe?
Or has she not won at all?
No, I don't think she's won.
Let's double check.
I'm almost certain.
Yeah.
Yeah, you're right.
Just nominations.
Five nominations.
Two for,
three for best actress, two for supporting actress, but never a win yet.
So speaking of people who are due.
Yeah.
Okay.
Interesting.
I do not have her on my list.
but yeah, I could definitely see that narrative forming.
A fourth that I have is Mikey Madison for the Social Reckoning.
I definitely see here getting into the conversation.
As I've talked about before, it's very interesting for me to have her
this big gap between winning best actress in a breakout role
and finally getting her next role.
And yep, I could definitely see that being in the conversation.
Yeah, I did not.
half her on this on this list i i think it's definitely a possibility her the response to her like performance
within the trailer was a little like luke warm for this so i don't i don't know but she's disrupting
craig yeah yeah i mean it's obviously super hard to judge based just on a trailer but um yeah
it really does not inspire confidence i'll say that yeah it's really does and neither does the poster
where they, I don't know if you saw they did like character posters that that riff on the iconic original poster for the social network,
but they completely fuck it up by like making the lettering semi-transparent and like just everything that made the original poster iconic,
they kind of just like back away from and make it a little more bland and generic, which is a bad metaphor for what the movie might be.
Yeah, totally.
Okay. And so my number five pick, if you've been listening to us, you might not.
be surprised about this. This is someone that is, I'm certain not in your list, but I've got Indy
Neverette for obsession. And I just loved, I just loved this performance. I think there's a lot
working against her potentially getting the nomination. But I think that there's a lot of,
especially younger people that are really enthusiastic about this. And with the ever-changing
dynamic within the voting body, I think it's possible that we see her get
awarded here because I think her performance deserves it honestly.
That's going to be a really interesting one.
And I debated it.
I'm not sure.
I did not include it on my list.
Though I wasn't as sure at the at the outset that I was going to go
snubber as the applied.
Obviously there's a ton of buzz about a performance.
I just mostly I think what's working against there is, you know,
I said that like Project Hale Mary might benefit from a lot.
of people in their 30s now voting. There aren't that many people in their 20s voting. And I think
that's where like the buzz around obsession is really coming from is from like people in their 20s.
And I think that's just a proportion of Oscar voters that is too small to really get through.
I think if Indy Navarit does not get an Oscar performance, there's going to be a lot of a lot of people
who are young obsession fans who are going to be screaming foul and be really upset about it. But I,
I ultimately think that that it misses,
just that the conversation around the movie will be too far in the rearview mirror
by the time we get to Oscar season and the fact that it is an indie horror movie
that's whose fan base is mostly young people,
just doesn't position it as that kind of,
in that kind of Oscar space.
Though I do think it would be interesting.
I have seen an obsession now.
I caught up to it now that it's on digital.
Don't like the movie.
But I do agree that the performance is really,
really find it interesting.
She does a whole bunch of stuff with her face,
which is fun.
I think that should be kind of a lesson
for a lot of young actors
to not start hitting the Botox
too early and too hard
because having a very mobile face
is actually a huge advantage.
And that's something that
Indian Everett really bucks in that performance.
I just think there's so much dimension.
I think she does like she does so much.
She basically plays
two characters and yeah i i feel like there's there's a lot of like risk taking within within that
and um that is partly the result of it being a sub million dollar budget and no one having any
sort of expectation of it doing anything but like she is like no strings attached and i yeah i thought
i thought it was a fantastic performance will be an interesting starlight to watch uh heading into usker
season. So rounding out my five nominees, I was really unsure about how I should handle a fifth
slot, but I ended up going with Olivia Wilde for the invite. I think, as I mentioned, last
episode that I think this is a movie that could sneak into the conversation. And some of the
reactions I've heard from people who have seen the invite I have not yet myself is that that Olivia
Wilde, who's also the director of the movie, gives a really, really impressive performance that I think
would probably be positioned as lead from what it sounds like, though.
I don't know.
It sounds like a real forehander.
So, like, maybe any of those four performances could end up in actor or supporting, depending
on how it's handled.
But I could see Olivia Wilde getting into the best actor race, whether or not the invite
ends up being a Best Picture nominee.
So that'll round out my list.
Nice.
Wild cards, or anybody, you're surprised that we haven't mentioned?
No, I don't think so.
Let's get into our wild cards.
Unless you've got someone that you want to...
No, I don't think so.
I don't think so.
Maybe Emily Blunt for Disclosure Day,
but I don't think that it has that kind of legs.
Yeah, I don't think so.
All right, give me a wild card.
Who's a party crasher here?
Okay, so I think Virginia Ifera
for all of a sudden could potentially be
within this conversation,
depending on what happens when
this gets a wider release.
Again, I think that
what is working again,
This is just how divided Neon is going to be with their campaigning.
And I, but she did like share the best actress at Con, I think.
So she's got that working for her.
But it's going to be hard to kind of to break through if, you know,
neon is pushing Fjord really hard or they've also got a place in hell and Fatherland, right?
Fatherland's Neon as well, I think.
Actually, I'm not sure about that, but still, I think neon has a huge slate this year.
And it's going to be hard to, you know, have a film that maybe is, doesn't have the higher ceiling in terms of the overall awards.
It's just like more cost effective to put all your campaign behind a single film that has the highest ceiling and, you know, has more potential for accolades.
Mubi is actually distributing Fatherland.
Okay, so yeah, interesting.
Yeah, that's an interesting pick.
And I went in a similar direction with my wildcard pick.
I didn't pick a Virginie Fero,
but I did pick another French actress who was in a movie in Cannes.
My wildcard is going to be Leisadou for Gentle Monster.
Leisadu has never had an Oscar nomination before.
She's been a fixture in French award circuits for several years and has been in a number of prominent Hollywood movies, but it's never really broke through into the awards conversation.
Gentle Monster is a movie that was very debated at Con.
It has a lot of shooters.
It has a lot of critics.
But it sounds like just a really juicy, meaty role for Sedu.
The big question around that is what kind of an American release, if any, will.
it get. I remember during con there was articles that Netflix was closing in on a distribution
deal for Gentle Monster, but I haven't seen any reporting about that since. So I don't know if that
actually happened or if they ended up dropping that, if that never actually came through. So I
think it might still be up in the air what sort of distribution it could get in America, which is
the thing that throws this pick into question the most. But I also just really love the idea of both
Sandra Hewler and Leisidu getting nominations for the Oscar the same year.
I'd love to see that happen.
I'd love to see those two blonde towering titans of European cinema,
both getting in the Oscars race in the same year.
I think that'd be really satisfying.
Okay, now this I think is going to be a little bit more interesting than for Best Actor,
where there was a lot of consensus.
Who do we think is going to win?
Craig, who do you call to win Best Actress, 2027?
So right now, I feel like the smart money is on Renata Rent.
survey, but I'm going to go a different direction with my pick. I'm going to pick Julianne Moore to do
this. I feel really good about the debate right now. And I think A-24 having the potential to
maybe run a bit more focused of a campaign than what Neon is able to, just based on their
slates, I think it's possible that this, this is where the, where the academy goes.
Okay. Interesting. Interesting.
Yeah, I could see it happening.
I feel like one thing working against Julianne Moore is that she already got the kind of like,
oh, she's due Oscar for Still Alice, which isn't maybe one of her most iconic performances,
but that was kind of the moment where it felt like there's like, oh, it's about time she won something.
You know, she's often in the nominations, which doesn't preclude her getting more Oscars.
Of course, she has the profile of somebody who could be a multiple winner since she already is a,
somebody who's been racking up a lot of nominations.
So I could see that coming.
I wonder if the narrative is going to be strong enough for her this year.
I think that one thing that works in her favor is just the overall package for the debut.
I think that it's possible that this is within the best picture category.
It's possible that we have Paul Giammati within the best supporting running a really strong campaign.
I think we are likely to see this have a nomination within the screenplay category.
I think that it's possible that it is within the music.
music categories. And so I think that there's like a relatively high ceiling for this film that could
help push Julianne more into the spotlight more. And once a film has momentum, we can see that carry
over within within categories. So I feel I feel pretty good about the debut right now. Okay. I see that.
I see that. Yeah. So I'm going in a different direction with my predicted winner. I'm saying this is
Sandra Hewler's year. I think that's
Andrew Healer wins for Fatherland.
That's my prediction. I just think that once we have
Rose, Digger,
Fatherland, all playing in theaters, they could potentially
all three be in theaters at the same time.
It's possible that you could go in it. And maybe they'll
put Project Calmerie back in the theaters
as a final Oscar's push. That happens.
There could be four
Hewler performances in American Cinemas at the same
time. We truly live in a golden age.
I just think that she's going to be
on people's radar so much.
that the conversation around her being one of this generation's best actors is going to reach a new peak in America.
I think in Europe they've talked about Hewler as one of her generation's best actors for years now.
And I think this is kind of the moment where that conversation happens in America.
And it feels like the soil is fertile for her to have a big year.
And I'm calling her as the one who gets the statute.
All right.
So before we wrap things up, let's do a little historical sidebar.
I thought it would be fun if we each pick a past year's awards race as one that could be comparable to what we could see playing out this year, a potential template for what might happen at the 2027 Academy Awards.
Craig, do you have a historical parallel in mind?
Yeah, so I've got a few.
And this is something that I mentioned last week when we were talking about the Tom Cruise campaign.
but this idea of getting a honorary Oscar is something that we often think about as the Academy
kind of closing the book on someone that is maybe overdue but as kind of pivoted away from
those the sorts of prestige roles that would typically earn another opportunity and Tom Cruise was
someone that got an honorary Oscar last year and now for him to come out with
within a year where he's got a strong competitive chance.
I think there's parallels.
And I mentioned last week that this has happened twice within history,
within the actor categories.
We saw this happen with, I said Peter Fonda,
but it was actually Henry Vonda.
So thank you for the correction in the comment.
And Paul Newman.
And so in 1982, I believe it was,
sorry, it was in 1981 when he won the honorary Oscar, Fonda, that is.
And then the next year he came back and he was competing in the category with Warren Beattie for Reds,
Paul Newman for absence of malice, Bert Lancaster for Atlantic City and Dudley Moore for Arthur,
which is a pretty competitive year, in my opinion.
So this wasn't like a year where he was able to kind of coast for,
towards a win.
Eventually he did come out on top.
He was unable to attend because he was too ill,
and that's one of the motivators for why he got the honorary Oscar to begin with was his failing
health.
But yeah, so there was a lot of emotional, emotional weight.
And I think another interesting example of this happening was, again, with Paul Newman,
who we got honored within 1986.
And then the following year in 1987, he won for the color.
of money, which is kind of an interesting bookend because co-starring in that, of course, was
Tom Cruise. So Tom Cruise, young at the time, was able to watch someone who had got the honorary
Oscar come back and win in a competitive field, which I think is really, really cute.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, a cute little parallel there. And just while we're on it, the color of money
is a movie that I absolutely love.
I'm a huge color of money fan,
and I think both Newman and especially Tom Cruise are incredible in that.
It is a top five Martin Scorsese movie for me.
And it is interesting that Newman finally wins the Oscar.
He had been nominated.
I think that was his seventh time being nominated when he finally won in 86.
But one of his first nominations, I think actually his second nomination,
was for The Hustler in a...
in 1962 in Oscars that I talked about a couple episodes ago when we were talking about
the best score category where when Paul Newman debuted the character of Fast Eddie Felsen and
The Hustler, which was a Best Picture nominee, and he was a frontrunner for Best Actor that year,
but ended up losing to Maximilian Schnell.
And it's when he reprises the role 25 years later in the greatest of all legacy sequels,
the color of money, that he finally gets through.
But that really does make it feel like a bit of a career Oscar win.
Just the fact that he's playing a character that he was already iconic for 25 years earlier,
the year after it gets an honorary, did make it feel a lot like it's about time he won.
But he's kind of the poster boy, I think, for that.
That idea that we often hear about when we talk about best actor, that they want him to earn it.
you know, that they don't want actors to win when they're young on one of their first nominations.
They often make actors weight.
And Newman is a great example of that.
So was Henry Fonda, who, as you mentioned, won for On Golden Pond, which that same year,
Catherine Hepburn won the same movie, which gave her her fifth career Oscar,
still a record.
And for Fonda also, there was there, I don't know, I don't know.
the number in front of me, but there are several nominations
over several decades before he finally won.
I went in a similar direction with the historical
parallel I picked. I'm also
finding a parallel for Tom Cruise.
This is fertile terrain that
the kind of season star, who they made
wait after many nominations to finally get a win.
Newman and Henry Fonda are both
a good picks, but I feel like
the closer parallel is Al Pacino.
Okay. So Al Pacino gets his first
his first acting trophy in 1993.
We're talking about the 65th Oscars
honoring the films of 1992
for The Scent of a Woman.
And for Pacino,
he had been nominated for Best Actor four times
by that point,
and he had also had two best supporting actor nominations.
Three Best Supporting Actor nominations,
if you include that same year,
because he also had a Best Supporting Actor nomination
for Glenn, Gary, Glenn Ross.
So the 93 Oscars were one of those rare years
where one actor had two performances at once
and two different categories nominated.
Pacino gets in for the scent of a woman.
So Tom Cruise doesn't have the same career nomination totals
that are comparable to Newman Fonda, Pacino.
They had hoarded more nominations than Cruz has.
I mean, Cruz only has three nominations to his name so far.
One in supporting for Magnolia and two in lead for Jerry McGuire
and born on the 4th of July.
And yet his career is, you know, more than four decades deep at this point.
So it's actually a deeper career than what Pacino had.
But I think where they're on similar footing is in terms of being those major movie stars.
Pacino was also just at that kind of stature, still is when he won it.
But also another parallel, I think.
So that was a very strong, that was a pretty strong year that year, I would say.
Clint Eastwood was nominated for Unforgiven.
the movie which won Best Picture that year.
Robert Downey Jr. was nominated for Chaplin.
Performance had a lot of people predicted to win, though didn't.
Stephen Ray for the crying game.
And Denzel Washington for Malcolm X, which a lot of people to this day still say should have been the winner.
One of the notable snubs that year was actually Tom Cruise for a few good men.
A lot of people thought he should have had a best actor nomination that year.
But one thing that makes it a bit of a parallel for me is that Pacino won
finally for playing a bit of a parodic character playing a kind of an exaggerated goofy character
and it kind of seems like that's what Tom Cruise is doing this year.
We're still waiting to see more footage for the movie, but it really seems kind of like
he's doing that Tropic Thunder thing where he yeah, potentially with prosthetics on his face,
not too sure about that yet, but that he's going to be, that he's going to be getting goofy,
going to be getting silly with it, doing a bit of a satire performance.
But Chito kind of did that in a sense of a woman.
And that kind of ended up defining what his late period career would be, like the more subtle performances that he'd been nominated through in the 70s for movies like The Godfather and Justice for All Dog Day Afternoon, Serpico, all of those were best actor nominations.
That would kind of go out the window once he realized that he hit a certain age.
Yeah, that's that's that movie.
That's the center of a woman.
out of order, I'll show you out of order.
You know, he just kept doing that throughout the 90s.
And she's got a great ass.
Comment about how awesome my machino imitation is, by the way.
It's not out anymore.
It's dunk.
So if Cruz also follows that mold and wins, as we're both predicting, he will.
Could we just see Cruz becoming a pair of?
figure sort of for the rest of his career.
Could he just start shouting and gesticulating and being a goofball for the rest of his career?
Who knows?
I think that it's a good question and it feels more like that is something he would be open to than Al Pacino who, like you said, gave really naturalist performances.
And that's what he was decorated for.
But people know Cruz as more of a figure that is open to not to.
taking like super serious roles.
And so I,
I definitely think that it seems like a more likely turn for,
for Cruz.
Yeah.
Yeah,
especially if that's what he finally gets honored for.
Like he has,
there has been moments like McNolia.
Right.
Like eyes wide shut,
collateral,
where people really applauded him for,
for taking a role that's,
that's more serious,
that's more complex than I'm more of like an art house kind of mode.
But he never got to,
an Oscar for those. So if he does get an Oscar for just being goofy, that's what you're going to
incentivize him to do in his late career period, especially if he's like aging out of being an
action star, which he's going to have to, it's going to have to happen eventually. The Mission
Impossible franchise is now apparently done with, you know, you can't keep being an action star
forever. So you kind of have to do something else with your late career. And that might be the
roadmap that we're headed for.
Yeah. As a quick little bonus historical parallel, I just want to say that if my prediction is right and Sandra Hewler won's best actress, I think the closest comparison would be the 17th Academy Awards in 1944 when Ingrid Bergman won for Gaslight. Just because that is an example of a European performer. Ingrid Bergman started her career in Swedish and German movies. But she had the recently kind of transition to Hollywood. That was her second Oscar nomination.
against a very stacked field, one of the great best actress races.
She was off against Claudette Colbert, Betty Davis, Greer Garson, and Barbara Stanwyck.
A lot of great performances there.
But her winning for Gaslight was kind of a moment that enshrined her as not just an interesting European actress on Hollywood, but as a huge Hollywood star.
Interesting. Yeah. So as a bonus historical pick for me for the actress,
category. One of the things that I was looking at was the 75th Academy Awards, which was the year that Chicago was doing incredible. And we kind of had divided attention from Miramax, who was distributing both Chicago and gangs of New York. And so there was kind of divided attention. And the best actress category is one of the categories where Chicago did not end up winning. So they were really pushing Renee Zell-Waker.
for the best actress category,
but it ended up going to Nicole Kidman
for her performance in the hours as Virginia Woolf.
I think it's possible that we see just because of neon having,
like being so divided and there being so many performances
that they can potentially put their energy behind.
It's possible that we see Julianne Moore come up the middle.
And interestingly enough, Julianne Moore was nominated twice that year,
both in the actress
field for Far From Heaven
and Best Supporting Actress for also the The Hours,
which fun little full circle moment.
Yep, yeah, huge year for her.
All right.
Well, this has been a slice.
Any final thoughts before we wrap things up, Craig?
No, but I would love to hear from our listeners or viewers.
Let us know if you have any parallels.
Another one that I was going to dive into a little bit was
the Kathy Bates year where she won for misery
and if there was any sort of parallels with potential
Indie Navarette.
But yeah, let us know in the comments
and we'd love to hear from you.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Let us know where we're wrong.
We're wrong in a lot of places,
but we will not know until March.
So if you could do better,
let's see your best shot.
Yeah, or just leave clown emojis in the comments.
Oh, yeah, we love those.
Okay, well, my name's Dylan Ferguson. That is Craig Midwinter. You can read some of my writing about movies on Substack. Just look for my name, D.Y. L.A. and Ferguson, if that interests you. And we'll see you all next time on Oscar's Outsider. Bye. Chow.
