Oscars Outsider - The consensus is.... there is no consensus?

Episode Date: August 18, 2026

The Oscar race just reshuffled — and we've got receipts. Dylan and Craig dig into the latest Best Picture prediction lists from Variety's Clayton Davis and the full Next Best Picture team, then argue about which hyped contenders are going to quietly vanish by November.On the docket: Project Hail Mary goes from "fake contender" to consensus pick, Digger keeps sliding after that trailer whiff, and Behemoth! emerges as the serious adult drama the race desperately needs. Plus: both hosts just watched The Invite and loved it — so where does Olivia Wilde's chamber comedy actually land among Best Picture, Best Director, and the acting categories? And does Penelope Cruz's clearest path run through The Invite or La Bola Negra?Also in this episode: Austria officially submits Rose (starring Sandra Hüller) for International Feature, Ryan Gosling's Ghost Rider deal and the sad Marvel gravitational pull on prestige actors, Barbie 2's salary standoff, and a quick audit of Best Actress, Actor, and Supporting races.Films discussed: The Invite, The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, Wild Horse Nine, Project Hail Mary, Dune Part 3, Digger, Behemoth!, The Debut, Fjord, Rose, Fatherland, Obsession, Paper Tiger, The Social Reckoning, Being Human, Prime Time, and more.🎬 Subscribe for weekly Oscar race coverage every step of the way to the ceremony.Chapters:0:00 News and headlines11:46 The Invite review26:35 Variety and Next Best Picture lists41:44 Risers, fallers, and wildcards48:54 Acting category predictions

A couple months ago, I was definitely saying like Project Hail Mary, fake contender, nobody's going to be talking about this movie when we get to fall. And I've sort of changed my tune about it. I feel like it has hung around in people's consciousness and people's conversations in a way that makes me think that it might actually end up getting into the Best Picture nominee slot. So that's why I say I feel like we've been moving in opposite directions. I feel like earlier on, you were more on the side of it being a Best Picture nominee.

and I was like, no way. And now I think that you're getting colder on it and I'm getting hotter on it. So I'm no longer saying like this is a fake contender. Welcome to Oscars Outsider, the only podcast where two guys talk about movies. I'm Dylan. That is Craig. How's it going? Hey, I'm doing good.

Excited to be back. Yeah, it's been a couple of weeks. We've had a tiny hiatus. So we talk about the awards race and a bit of Hollywood history. Tonight, I thought that we would get a bit of a lay of the land where we are right now, kind of halfway between Oscars, kind of you could say at the end of the off season. We're going to talk about some other prediction lists out there, which movies we think are actually going to really be contenders in which we think might fall off the race.

We might talk about the invite a little bit, which has been making some noise lately. So I think we've got to dig into that. Craig, we always start this off by talking about some news, that might affect the Oscars and the awards race down the stretch. What do you got? What do you got? Yeah, so there was a few things that I saw, actually. So one of the things that is maybe not a surprise, but Austria announced that they are officially

submitting Rose, that is the film that's starring Sandra Hewler for their international feature Oscar pick. No surprise here. I think this is one that is building a little bit of momentum. here. I think that there's a lot of buzz about Sandra Hewler's performance here. And when we were talking about when we were making our

actress picks, this is the one that I saw her getting in for. So be interested to see how this ends up playing. I think Mooby holds the North American rights. But yeah, this is one I'm excited. Yeah, me

too. Definitely early word around the film sounds like super enthusiastic. So I'm really excited to see it. When we did do way too early predictions for best actress, we each picked Sandra Hewler, but for different movies. I picked her for Fatherland and you picked her for Rose. Your pick might end up being the stronger one, though I still think Fatherland has serious Oscars potential, as I've been saying for a long time now. But yeah, buzz around Rose sounds like super hot right now. So I'm really stoked to finally be able to see it someday. The other thing that I

saw in terms of submissions was La Bolanegra has said that they are submitting Lanyev as their best original song. So this it's not surprising that there's a song coming from here. I think what was

interesting is that the song is written by was it, guitar Rika della Fuente and they could make history by being, I think it's only the fifth person to receive like an acting nomination and a best original song credit, which was surprising to me.

I would have expected there to be a lot more people that have gotten arms in both categories. That does seem like a surprising stat. Yeah. Yeah. Especially like with all the musicals out there. But I guess, but I guess they have to be the person who wrote the song. So that's obviously a much rarer thing. That's interesting. Apparently that person's like kind of a star in Spain, but would be interesting to see if this could be a platform for them to to break through in America. There was also a list that came out on Variety where they were talking about a bunch of the films that are potentially going to be missing the awards window or getting pushed out to

next year. And some of those are things that we already knew like the entertainment system is down is going to be going into next year's con. So there wasn't a whole lot of surprises there. There was a note about variety, or from the variety article that said that 824 is also adding another film to its 2026 roster. I don't think it specified which one it was. The speculation was that it was going to be Jody Hill's famous or Henry Dunham's enemies.

So we'll see what happens. happens there, but I feel like 824 has a pretty strong for your considerations roster right now, at least with the debut and the invite, which we're going to talk about later. So, yeah, I'm wondering what do you think about that? Yeah, I don't know anything about either of those movies you just named, but it would be definitely fun to have like a surprise late in the race entry. And the other stuff that I saw was there's a lot of discourse about Barbie 2 being in crisis. Did you see any of this?

In passing, yeah. Yeah. Apparently, Gerwig and Bomback have Warner Brothers over a barrel and asking for a lot of money, as they should. Yeah, totally they should. I'm surprised that they're not getting a blank check on this one, to be honest. But, yeah, Gosling was reportedly asking like 20 million to return as Ken as well. So it's, yeah, I don't think that this is something that is really needed. but I would be shocked if we don't get a barb.

Yeah, yeah. I mean, I hope everybody involved gets paid. I hope that Bombak gets enough money that he can self-finance a whole J-Kelly cinematic universe. J-KCU. Yeah, but in terms of Gosling, like, as I've said before, I've really been disappointed in his post-Kenn career arc where he just seems to be cashing easy checks. But if you're going to do that, might as well make those checks as big as possible. Like if you're going to be a sellout, sell for a high price.

Yeah. You know, I hope you're getting paid a ton of money to do Ghost Rider with Sean Levy, buddy. Like, because otherwise, it's just depressing. Yeah, it's interesting. So it's interesting that you brought up Ghost Rider because that was one of the announcements over the past. I don't know when that was announced, but like a couple weeks ago. and my reaction to it is way different than the announcement of Indy Neverette joining the Marvel universe as like rogue or something like that. Just because like she's on the rise and obviously Ryan Gosling is like one of the A-list stars and it's it's disappointing to see Gosling go into a capslop movie.

whereas with indie i'm like oh yeah like get the bag girl yeah i mean yeah with her it's like you do kind of have to strike when the iron is hot like well your stock is this high you might as well grab a roll that you can probably pay for a very solid uh payday multiple times because that's probably going to be a character that's going to come in multiple movies i think that's one of the reasons why they all these actors do take those marvel contracts yes they do limit your careers in a lot of ways because you have to keep freeing your schedule to do the next movie. But it's like a reliable. It's job security. It is job security. That's the thing Bruce Willis used to always say about like playing John McLean. He's like, you got to have one role that

you can keep going back to because you never know when your career is going to take a downturn. And then you can just like hit that button and go back to that role. So for somebody who's like, who's got a lot of buzz now, but who knows how it's going to last, it makes sense to be like, I'm going to grab a role where I can get a good payday multiple times probably over the years, even if other things don't end up going by way. With Gosling, though, I do think it's just kind of depressing. I remember back when he was doing press for drive and he was saying things like, oh, this is the closest I'm going to do to a superhero movie because they keep calling me about superhero movies, but I'm not interested. And that plus also Adam Driver finally agreeing to join Marvel to play Mr. Sinister.

which was also announced this week, I believe, who is also a guy who apparently Marvel's been like calling him for years, trying to get him to do a role. It's, it's, there's something very, very sad about these people who allegedly have been turning down superhero roles all over the years, finally just being like,

yeah, sure, I'll do this random C-list character. Like, okay. Yeah. I, I also don't get like Adam Driver positioning himself as above doing Cape Slop when he's been in Star Wars.

Like I do not see much of a difference between those two like world. But I mean, in Star Wars, he was like a huge central character. He wasn't Mr. Sinister. Anyways, enough, enough Marvel stuff, enough Disney stuff. Anything else that you noticed for the past couple of weeks? No, that's kind of it. It has been pretty slow. Yeah, that's really about it.

Yeah, we are in a bit. of a lull. I will say that the Locarno Film Festival in Switzerland just wrapped up a couple days ago. That's not a big film festival. You know, it's not really as important to the awards race as things like Berlin-Conn Venice are. Yeah, I was going to say, like, what is this? Kimley Film Festival just wrapped too. Okay. But I think Locardo has become being more important, at least as like an industry gathering thing. So like the winners aren't necessarily good to affect the race. It was you don't belong here, which is a Romanian film, which won the Golden Leopard and Hong Song Su won best director, which I'm happy about because I'm a big, big Hong boy. But it is an interesting venue because

a lot of industry people show up. So I, it did host the European premiere of the invite, which will be transitioning into in a second. And so Olivia Wilde got a lot of press. in Europe for that. It also had a screening for paper tiger, which got a lot of press for James Gray. It was the reason why he had a new interview and variety where he trashed AI and that got some attention, kind of just a reliable way to get attention

when you're a filmmaker, just say the words AI in any context and you'll get a headline and variety. But it provided a showcase for those two filmmakers that I think could help. They're continuing building of momentum heading into fall. Otherwise, yeah, it's been pretty sleepy. We know mostly what movies are going to be playing at the fall festivals. And we're waiting for those to start.

We'll maybe do previews of them coming up just before they start. Anything else on the news front before we move on? No, nothing on the news front. Yeah. All right. So I mentioned that there was just the European premiere of the invite, which I think continues to build momentum. just watched it last night. I think you just watched it recently as well, Craig.

Yeah, I also just watched it. Oh, awesome. We're, we're, we're fresh at the same time. Yeah. That's so cute. Uh, thoughts. I loved it actually. So, yeah. I, I thought it was great. I, yeah, like, if you're a long time listener to Dylan and I, like, even back when we were talking about Real Housewives and not the, the Oscars, you will know that I love when space is used. like really interestingly and I thought that this does such a fantastic job of doing it. It gave me some Sydney Lumet vibes in terms of like the composition and the use of space and I, yeah, I thought it was great. Oh, I like that you pronounce the T and Lumet.

That's that's correct, but very few people get that. Good job. You know what? I didn't before until we were talking about one of the Real Housewives episodes that we talked about where we were making comparisons. And I noticed that you pronounce it right. And I know that I never pronounce names correctly. So I picked it up from you.

Nice. Yeah, I also really, I enjoyed the use of space. It is a 400 chamber piece. And I haven't seen Olivia Wilde's previous movies, book smart and don't worry, darling. This is their third feature. So I'm getting caught up with her as a director for the first. time. She's got chops. She's got chops. This is a well directed movie. When we did our way too early

picks for best director, I snuck Olivia Wilde into my top five partially just on the strength of like, there's probably going to be a woman in there and she feels best positioned to be there. I feel much better about that pick having seen the movie because I think it's super well directed, both in terms of the performances and in terms of like you said, the use of space, the space between performers, the choice of angles, you know, whether the camera's looking up or down at a character often influences the power dynamics between them. There is a lot of good shot choices, a lot of thought that went into the composition of the film. Editing is fantastic in it. Yep. Yep, yep, yep. And all four performances are keyed up to a really good degree of comedy,

you know, zaniness that also nonetheless remains realistic enough to feel like relatable people that you might have met

in your life. Yeah, well-made movie. Just a well-made simple, simple kind of chamber comedy. Yeah, I thought it was, it was fantastic.

And the way that she's able to like build tension both like for dramatic purposes and comedic purposes is, is excellent. I think like it's hard to strike that balance well and I think I think she nails it. Nice.

Do you feel like it's more of an Oscars contender than you thought having actually seen the movie now? Totally. Yeah. Absolutely. What do you think about getting into the best picture nominations? I'll be disappointed if it doesn't. I think that it definitely deserves to be there. Maybe by one hesitancy is I haven't seen.

the Spanish movie that it's based on. It's an adaptation of a movie that's called The People Upstairs from 2020, I believe, a Spanish film. And so it's hard for me to judge how much of what I like about the movie is original to it and how much has been taken from the original material. I should watch the original at some point because it seems to have taken off and away. This is like the fifth or sixth remake already of the people upstairs. there is like, you know, there's a French version, there's a South Korean version.

There are like multiple versions of this movie already, even though it only came out like six years ago. Yeah, I knew it was an adaptation. I didn't realize it had been adapted that many times. Is there any sort of like precedents for films that have been like adapted this many times that you know of and that have like made big Oscar campaigns for one of the adaptations? I don't know. I mean, there are definitely movies that have like multiple versions where you can think of like one version breaking it through at the Oscars. Not necessarily winning best picture. I'm thinking of Weathering Heights, for example.

The William Weiler version had a lot of Oscar nominations despite being very far from the first version of that novel. But I think that's maybe a different thing than what you're talking about, an adaptation of a book compared to just a remake of a movie. Yeah, that's. It is somewhat rare to see straight remakes getting into the Oscars conversation, I think, to such a big degree. I'm kind of wrecking my memory. I did use this as a trivia question a while ago, but there are two movies that have one best picture in the 21st century that were kind of remakes that a lot of people, I think, didn't realize were remakes because they were not of American movies. and that's the Departed and also Coda. That the invite seems to kind of fit that pattern more

in the sense of being like a remake of a movie that was popular in another country, but a lot of people seeing it in America probably aren't even aware of the fact that it's a remake. But in terms of a movie that's been like a remade a whole bunch of times, I'm not thinking of one off my head. Maybe later I'll kick myself for not thinking of it. So you also mentioned this is like a great like forehanded, performance. Like all of these actors and actresses are fantastic in this. Where do you see them potentially slotting in in terms of nominations? Do you think all or none or some? Yeah, that is an

interesting question because all four performances are definitely strong. My personal favorite is Edward Norton. I think he is hilarious. And I love Norton and these kind of, he's kind of fallen into a groove of like just really nailing these comedy performances where he plays smug guys, uh, you know, in movies like, uh, like Birdman and Glass on you and he's really,

really good at it. Um, and, um, I would love to seem that conversation. I kind of have a hard time picturing him slipping in though. Um, yeah,

I wonder if Olivia Wilde actually has the best chance to get an acting nomination. She is really good at the movie too. Yeah. Um, Seth Rogen definitely has a lot of goodwill right now. He just won several Emmys for the studio. And I think he's at kind of a high point of being well liked in Hollywood, at least by a certain segment of like more liberal Hollywood, I guess,

for speaking his mind in a way that a lot of people appreciate. But I almost want to say Padillope Cruz for supporting has like the best, the clearest path. Though at the same time, Penelope Cruz is doing a lot of movies this year. And she might be providing competition to herself. though of course rule changes

mean that she could get multiple nominations even in the same category that is now a possible thing but you would think that that she and the people around her would concentrate on one

on one film on one performance and would that performance be the invite I'm not sure that I still feel like that's the one that makes the most sense it feels like the most like clear path to getting supporting because otherwise you're trying you're gunning for lead if like for Olivia wilde she would probably be going for lead and that feels like a very crowded field that might be difficult

to break into if I had to pick one that I think gets a nomination I think I would go with cruise I don't know what about you yeah I think Olivia wild makes the most sense here like this is this is her movie like it's she directed it and it feels very like her fingerprints are are all a over it. So I could see there being the most momentum around any person associated with this film is obviously going to be her. And I could see that carrying into the actress field. I think could that work against her too because people are like, oh, we really wanted to get her a best director nomination. And the momentum to get her best director like kind of takes attention away from performance. And people don't want to. I think that's that's possible. But this is a fantastic performance. I think you can't watch this movie and not appreciate. her performance. It is it is so layered and it's it's great. I think that it's more likely in my opinion that there's synergy around this as opposed to it you know taking taking away. I think that Penelope Cruz I feel like her clear's path is via LeBola Negra and so I see that being more of a juggernaut within the the award season than the invite. I still feel that. I still feel

feel like the invite is going to have a smaller of a footprint at the Oscars than La Bolanagra. I think La Bolanagra is going to have all of Netflix weight behind that. And I can see it potentially having a surprising amount of nominations compared to what we thought, you know, coming out of con. I think that so I think that her her path is going to be via La Bolanagra. maybe Bunker if that is something that is coming out this year but I still see Cruz as being associated with La Bolanagra and that being a way bigger Oscars player than the invite I see the invite definitely being present

but I feel like it's going to be have more of a footprint similar to a real pain I see it being in the acting categories are in the supporting categories, a player, I think maybe a lead actor for Olivia. And I think that it's going to probably be in the adapted screenplay. And I think it does hit best picture, unlike a real pain. But I do think that overall it's going to have a smaller amount of nomination. Just to be clear, you have reversed that position from when I first brought up a real pain. and the invite.

I asked which one I thought would have a better shot at best picture. And you'd picked a real pain at that. Sorry, I'm getting confused. I was talking about the debut in the other Eisenberg movie. But that does actually lead me to what I was going to ask, which is, do you think there are maybe just too many comedies that some of these are just not going to make it?

Like, between like Digger and maybe Project Tailberry and Wild Horse Nine and possibly the debut and the invite, like, surely there's not. going to be half of the nominations are just going to be comedies like which some of these are going to have to crowd the other ones out right do you think the invite could be a victim of of two other too many other comedies and contention i think that if it was like straight straight comedy then maybe but this is definitely like dramedy and sure i feel like i feel like it's going to get a pass on that I don't think that it's competing with Dacre.

I don't think. Do you? Kind of, yeah. Especially if Wild Horse Nine is in there too. There might be just some people just might be like, oh man, there's too much goofy stuff here. Like, this is why I was saying two weeks ago that I could really see behemoth becoming a contender.

Because at the time I said like, oh, people are going to say like, oh, there's too many like sci-fi fantasy epic movies. here. I could see them also saying, oh, there's too many comedies. Like, there are a lot of people who I'm in that category too are going to be like, where's the goddamn adult dramas? Like, give me a serious adult drama. Like, which movies are going to fill those slots? And that's why I'm starting to feel really high on behemoth. Because I think there's got to be an American movie, like a Hollywood movie. Like, yes, there will be a couple foreign movies that could fill that slot. But people are going to want there to be a Hollywood movie that is a contemporary adult drama, straight drama,

no weird costumes, no goofy jokes. And I see that being behemoth. And I think there might be a bit of a fatigue around the comedies as well as there might be a bit of a fatigue around the spectacle movies. Once we start getting down the stretch and all the people who are like, damn, I just want a really good drama are looking for their champion. Yeah, I mean, that's definitely possible. I could see the invite and debut competing more than I could see the invite and digger, but I think it's definitely a

possibility. I I'm interested in whether or not Bohemoth fills that slot. I think you're, I think you're right that there is, we're still waiting to kind of identify what that movie is going to be. I think it's possible it's behemoth.

It's, I mean, there's an outside shot that it's paper tiger still. If the New York Film Fest like relaunch is good but I yeah I'm I'll be interested to see it's definitely going to be a big storyline for me to watch

in terms of the New York Film Festival precisely which movie comes out as the darling when that festival's wrapped and because I feel like like you said behemoth and paper tiger might be in direct competition for that slot

of like which one of these American dramas from a really good American filmmaker who maybe hasn't gotten enough of, enough credit, enough opportunity as a lot of people would have liked to have seen them yet, which one of those comes out of the festival as like the one everybody's carrying on their shoulders and tossing laurels at. Because one of them is going to, is going to have a much better reception. The other New York Film Festival can be a little rough. It can be, it can be harsh towards some films.

It's not always a very friendly venue. And I'm really going to be interested to see which movie comes out looking a little more glazed when that festival's wrapped up. Yeah, for sure. So, you know, moving on, we are kind of in the doldrums, like I mentioned. We don't have a ton of news right now because that's normal. That's where we are at the calendar. We're getting close to kind of the halfway mark between last year's Oscars and next Oscars. Since the fall festival season is starting in just a couple of weeks, we're getting to the point.

point where you can kind of start talking about award season for real, where a lot of the movies that are going to end up in the conversation are finally going to see the light of the day. The off season is coming to an end, this period where we can just kind of sort of speculate about a lot of movies that we haven't even seen yet and maybe hype up some movies that aren't actually going to be contenders going down the line, that this sort of dead zone is coming to an end. I feel like this is a good moment to just kind of take stock of where we are at the race. as we get to the end of it's way too early to know anything and start getting into, we start to know some stuff.

Yeah. So let's maybe take a look at what some of the people are saying, like what some people other than us think are the contenders at this point where we are all still pretty in the dark when it comes to come to all this stuff. So we thought we might look at some lists that other reliance. liable sources or have collated about who they expect to be the Oscar nominees and react to them and let you know what we think about them. Probably we're all wrong at this point, but it's very fun to try and guess. I haven't really looked at anything yet in terms of other people's predictions.

I've mostly been avoiding that up till now. How about you, Craig? Yeah, so I've taken a look at a few. So one of the first ones that are one of the more recent ones that I've seen was Clayton Davis with Variety. Variety released a list. And I think this was released as of August 1st. Okay, a couple weeks ago. In alphabetical order, I will give you, I will give you the picks.

So what they've got first is Being Human, which is the Apple original film from Cian Heater. Then we've got... Which is opening Toronto, I believe. Yeah, yeah. Then they've got the debut. Okay. They've got Dune Part 3. Fjord.

La Bola Negra. The Odyssey. Project Hail Mary, tender loving care, Wild Horse 9, and Wildwood. So there are two that I don't even know what the hell they are. What are tender loving care and Wildwood?

What are those? So Georgina Lowe is behind tender love and care, which I know nothing about. And then Wildwood is Travis Knight and Sam Wilson. That's all that I've got there. So yeah, those are surprises to me as well. Okay. Other than that, I'm not that surprised by anything.

Being human, maybe a little bit, but, you know, I can see it. I assume it's going to be a biopic a little bit on the sappy side of things. from the director of Coda, like you said, that, you know, an Apple movie. You know, Apple's been surprisingly successful in the past.

They got Coda Best Picture. They got F1 into the nominations for Best Picture last year. So that one stands out a bit, but I can see it. Like, we haven't really talked about that as a contender, but it also does have a pretty, a pretty good slot.

The opening slot at the Toronto Film Festival is a place where we'll get garner some attention from industry types for sure. So depending how that premiere goes, yeah, I could definitely see that in there. But yeah, otherwise, Tender Loving Care Wildwood, those are wild cards to be. I do not know what those are. So that's interesting. Otherwise, this is mostly, so hold on. You did not have the invite on that list, did you, right?

The invite is not on that list. Okay, okay. So, Clayton Davis is not necessarily. Yeah, another interesting. interesting omission is the Odyssey or sorry not the Odyssey oh my God that would be obsession is not on that which like I think you've got that tracking to to miss but it's on a lot of lists that I've seen yeah I would be completely shocked if as I've said before if obsession is the best picture of me but but yeah otherwise it's that's a lot of the movies

that we have been talking about in terms of like the non-American American movies, I guess the two that Clayne Deus is going with are Fjord and La Bola Negra. Those two con titles, one of which one Palm Door and the other of which had the best reception of the festival. Those are the two

that he's including. That definitely makes sense. You know, that makes sense to me too. So I'm not too surprised about that. I still, as I've already said, feel strongly about Fatherland. So I could put Fatherland

in for either one or the other myself, which is another con movie, might be off about that. I still imagine that it's going to have a big, a big reception. Speaking of those, those con movies, I guess he's also not including the Rewski Hamaguchi movie,

all of a sudden in there either, which is kind of tracts with what we've been saying too, right? We've been talking about that as kind of an outside shot, but not necessarily something that we expect to see at best picture. Anything surprising about that to you? I don't think, I don't think, well, I was a little surprised that we've got both Project Hail Mary and Dune Part 3 on here. I, I feel like it's more likely that we've got just Dune Part 3 on this list. I, I personally have been feeling like Project Hail Mary is going

to miss, but I think you said that you thought that it was going to get it. Yeah, so I think we've moved in opposite directions on this. And this is one of the things that I wanted to talk about today is that like which movies that people have been talking about as contenders are going to fall off the map by the time we really get into the thick of things in October, November, December, because there are going to be some of these movies that are just going to disappear. That's how it goes. A couple months ago, I was definitely saying like Project Hail Mary, fake contender, nobody's

going to be talking about this movie when we get to fall. And I've sort of changed my tune about it. I feel like it has hung around in people's consciousness and people's conversations in a way that makes me think that it might actually end up getting into the best picture nominee slot. So that's why I say I feel like we've been moving in opposite directions. I feel like earlier on, you were more on the side of it being a best picture nominee. And I was like, no way. And now I think that you're getting colder on it and I'm getting hotter on it. So I'm no longer saying like this is a fake contender.

I feel like it could, you know, I don't think it's going to challenge to win best picture, but I'm starting to see it as a movie that actually will in fact get a best picture nomination. Yeah, that could be. I just feel like there's going to be only one space sci-fi movie. And I feel like it's going to go to Dune Part 3 as opposed to Project Hail Mary. I just feel like there are maybe more people in. in the academy who are going to feel like Dune is of a higher, like, echelon of a film than Procteau Mary, which feels more of a just kind of, I don't know, goof.

Yeah. A bit goofier. For sure. It's definitely much goofier, but I think that it works in its favor. I mean, in the 10 nominee era, it's not necessarily one or the other. You can have two sci-fi movies. We've seen that in other years as well. the very first 10 picture year we had two sci-fi movies in Avatar and District 9.

I think that we have to get used to there often being one kind of Marvel-e sort of jokey sci-fi movie that millennials really like. I think that's kind of just they're not always going to be a best picture winner. the way everything everywhere all at once was. But something like I would say that sinners last year was the kind of Marvel E sort of millennial movie that not everybody will like that I say that, but I think that's the one that kind of got into that slot. And I think that that's the position that that Project Hail Mary doesn't have direct

competition for. Not necessarily the sci-fi slot. or the comedy slot, though it's both a comedy and the sci-fi, but kind of the like reddick core millennial vibes slot, that's the one that it just hits that note that there's going to be so many people who are like, some of these somewhat younger voters, you know, somewhat younger.

I mean, people who are like 40 years old or whatever, like our age, who are who are, academy voters who are going to be like, oh, I want to hit that button. Yeah, yeah, I could, I could see what you're saying there. I do feel like maybe there's enough. of that kind of millennial energy around something like the invite, I feel like it doesn't have

that same like marvely tone or that like that jokeyness, but I feel like it might resonate more with millennials who are kind of at this, um, this stage of life where they are potentially drop issues within their like their marriages and stuff like that. I could see that. Yeah, but then there's a big contingent of millennials who aren't interested in grappling with issues with their marriage and are still interested in like big junkies. And those are the people who are voting for Project Tailbearer. Okay, so the next list that I had was a, it's a combined list from the team at Next Best Picture. And so I guess the way that they did this was there's 17 people on their team.

and they all made their list of who they thought was going to be nominated and who they thought was going to win and then pick their 10th. So in the 10th spot, they had the invite and 8 out of 17 of their team members thought that it was going to get a nomination. Number nine, they had the debut and that was 13 of their 17. Number eight, they had behemoth. Okay. Behemoth rears its head. Yeah. And that was also 13.07.

And Digger as well was 13 out of 17 at number seven. Number six was Fjord. So 15 out of 17. Number five was Dune. Number four was. Oh, and the top four all had 17 out of 17 people thinking that it was going to get a nom. So four, three, two, and one were Project Hail Mary, Wild Horse Nine, La Bola Negra, and the Odyssey. Anything surprising there?

I mean, yeah. So this is kind of trying, it feels like it's triangulating a clear top four here, which all these 17 writers agree on, which includes Project Heraldary, Wilders, 9, the Bullenegra, and the Odyssey. That's pretty interesting to me. This also does kind of show something that I've argued for since we saw the trailer, which is that the Digger is not being. positioned as much as a heavyweight as it seemed like it would be when it was kind of just pure hype before we'd seen any footage a couple months ago. And I agree with that. I think that this is a movie that stock has been falling since we've actually seen footage. I don't think it's just us. Yes, I know a lot of people got mad at us when we said that the Digger trailer

suck. But I don't think it's just us. I think there's other people who, who are like, oh, you know what? Maybe we got over our skis talking about this movie as a best picture contender just because it felt like it was Tom Cruise's time to get an Oscar. So it's interesting that that's kind of being shut out of kind of deal. It's still in the nominations. It's still in their top 10 list. So yeah, they're definitely not discounting it by any means. But they haven't really collated around it these writers as the consensus picks.

Whereas Project Tail Mary is a consensus pick to just kind of continue. that thread. So, you know, that seems to be one that, again, isn't really going away. And once again, like with the Clayton Davis list, the two foreign movies that are being picked as the serious contenders are Fjord and La Bula Negra. Otherwise, this is a lot of the movies we've been talking about. Behemoth is a big difference from the Clayton Davis list. So that once again makes me feel even more confident in my my growing belief that behemoth is more of a contender than I kind of I guess expected it to be a couple of months ago I don't know what's surprising to you about this yeah this one I mean it seems a lot more like what I would expect

to be beyond this list um this one is not very surprised I think just to get back on what you were saying about digger though I don't think that all the talk about it being contender was solely based on the fact that it was coming in with a Tom Cruise, it's his time narrative, which I think is still a very strong, like that, that feels like the strongest part of, of digger still, but the way they kind of trickled information about this out in this kind of mysterious way, and, you know, we were just seeing a few like stills from the film, and it really, um, I think it, um, I think it, really didn't kind of show what the tone of the film was going to be.

And the trailer was at least a surprise to a lot of people, uh, including, including myself. So I think that that kind of like that pivot, that hard, hard turn was what has really made it, it fall in my opinion.

Mm. All right. Do you have any others that you've been looking at? So those are the two big lists that I was looking at. But they do have other like above the line category. No, let's save that for another one. All right. But, okay, so I'm going to just reiterate the question that I floated earlier.

Which movie do you think that has been positioned as a potential contender is going to disappear from the conversation once we get really into the thick of it in a couple months here? Yeah. I, I mean, I'm. starting to feel like it's obsession. And that is one that I know you have not been. I've never taken that seriously. Yeah. But I think a lot of people are.

And I feel like that is going to fall. I feel like the only shot it might have is Indy Navarette for Best Actress. I think that campaign is not necessarily going away. I still don't see her making it in. But I think that she sticks around the conversation. definitely like you mentioned the X-Men casting is the kind of thing that's going to keep her name in the zeitgeist. You know, people are still going to keep talking about this performer. And as she continues to try to kind of cash it on this unexpected success,

we're probably going to hear more, you know, casting news and stuff that'll keep her name kind of in trade headlines and stuff. So, so I could see that that she should be a best actress nominee continuing to be in the conversation all the way into awards season. and I don't necessarily think that she gets the actual nomination. But I think that she remains in the discussion in terms of the movie in general. I don't think it's a serious thing. Yeah, I'm beginning to believe you're right. I will say, and I think this is this take is already cold by this point. But I think the train has left the station for Michael, which was one of those movies.

I think that felt like it was in the conversation a while ago just because we didn't have a lot of movies to talk about. And now that we're going to start having more and more serious contenders in conversation, it's not in either of the list that you just gave us. I think that's a clear sign that that's not happening as much as it is. A very popular movie that fulfills a role that is traditionally an Oscarish role, the musical biopic, I think that the bad reviews and the fact that the cultural conversation has moved on from musical biopics and,

has kind of pushed it into a relevancy. So I would say that that's one that's going to fall off the charts. But again, that take might already be cold because look at these lists. Maybe it already has fallen off the charts even before we get into the season proper. I mean, it is interesting that there's not really any biopics that are showing up on these. Being human is a biopic, though that's like fringe. Yeah, true. I think that's true.

There are some biopics that haven't been widely seen. yet that we could potentially get playing here. I mean, Prime Time is one that has a little bit a buzz about it. Hey, did you see the new trailer for Prime Time? I saw, I saw a trailer for it. Yeah, I thought it looks awesome. Yeah. It's cool. Yeah. I like, I like the trailer. I

could definitely see Robert Pattinson getting a best actor nomination for that. He does the voice. You know, that's like, that is one of those things where it's like, yeah, Maybe biovics aren't as much of a sure thing to get best picture nominees anymore. That's still an easy way to get an active nominee. Relatively easy. Okay, maybe you could dispute the usage of that word.

But I can see Robert Pattinson and getting a best actor nomination for that. Yeah, let's get that best adapted performance category I've been talking about. Yeah. But I'm excited for the movie. It looks cool. Yeah. There's also Tony, which is the Anthony Bourdain biopic with, Dominic Sessa and I Am Rocky is another one that you know I'm Rocky that's another one that's

going to show up at Toronto that could I can see that being in the conversation for sure Tony that's playing right now I think right isn't that maybe limited release I think it's limited release yeah yeah I don't know I'm sick of that Matt Johnson guy I don't I don't care for it um no all right how about this is there a movie that's already been released that you think could be a riser that could enter the conversation despite not being maybe in either of those lists so we we talked a little bit on a previous episode about this and i i'm still sticking to it i think all of a sudden is not out of the woods i i are i don't think you can count count it out yet um i do see it potentially

making a bit of a push for sure. Okay. Yeah. I'm not sure if we see it outside of Best International Feature and possibly the outskirts of acting, though even that I would be pretty surprised by. So, yeah, I'm not sure I'm totally with you on that. I'm not sure that that Paper Tiger is dead either, though. I wonder if Paper Tiger could continue to build momentum.

Like I said, when James Gray opened it at Locarno, he got some press for that. They expect him to show up in a lot more interviews when he has it as the opening night film at the New York Film Festival. I think there's a lot of people who like James Gray. A lot of people definitely like his interviews. He's one of the best interviews of any filmmaker, I think, out there. He's a very, very smart, well-spoken guy. he is the kind of director, I think, who can, who can sell a movie on his own, even if his cast isn't that willing to sell it. And it doesn't seem like they are. Yeah. But mind you, he hasn't been able to do it yet in terms of Oscar. None of his movies have gone Oscars love. But it's a crime drama. You know, Paper Trigger is a crime drama. We don't really have one of those in conversation. And that's, you often have one of those in the Oscars nominees list. So I wonder if that could be a riser here. Yeah. Another one that is maybe falling that hasn't been on these lists and we haven't really talked about at all today is the social reckoning.

Yeah. That feels like it could be falling, although there was just like a GQ cover article on Jeremy Strong as talking about his like process. So that campaign is like warming up. But I'm wondering whether this starts to look like it's, it's physical. I still see it as a player for screenplay, and I definitely see Michael, Mikey Madison as a player for actress. I put her on my way too early list of best actress nominees. Jeremy Strung, good point. People really like him. I could see him in supporting potentially.

But best picture, no, don't see it. Yeah, I think that about does it for the list, unless we really do want to dive into the acting. Sure, let's do quick. Do you want to? Okay. Yeah, sure. What's it. All right.

Okay. So the next best picture for best actress, they've got one through five are Julianne Moore for the debut. They have her positioned as who they think is going to win. Indy Neverecette for Obsession is at number two. Renata Rencivay is at number three. Sandra Hewler is at number four for Rose. Her performance in Rose. And number five is Olivia Wilde.

Okay. So yeah, not super surprising. That's a lot of the names we talked about when we did our way too early best actress preview. I think I pretty much had that, except I did not have Navarad. I had Mikey Madison. And I think that's, if I'm recalling, right, I think that's otherwise. Maybe my list, close to that anyways. Anything surprise you?

No, this seems like what I am expecting it to look like at this point. Do you think I'm out on an island here thinking that Mikey Madison gets a, gets another nomination? Yeah, I kind of do actually. Yeah, I don't know. All I can go off is the trailer and just general buzz. And I feel like most of the momentum is behind Jeremy Strong on this right now. I feel like the pulse on Mikey Madison is similar to the pulse on Jeremy Allen White.

Okay. Okay. What do you have for actor? So for actor on the next best page, list at number one they've got john malcovich who um and number one yeah so they had him at number one they don't so that's sorted by the amount of people they thought yeah we're going to get nominations for the pick for winner was tom cruise but two people had them had tom cruise missing for a nomination here which um is pretty interesting yeah number three they've

got Matt Damon. Number four, they've got Andrew Scott for Elsinore, which is a film. I don't think we've talked at all about. But there's murmurs about that movie. And number five, they've got Pedro Pascal for him. Okay. Which, that one is pretty surprising for me. I don't see him getting in there.

I see that spot probably being either Ryan Gosling for Project Hail Mary or Sebastian Stan for Fjord. Or we could get like some outside pick like Patterson for prime prime would be a bit of a surprise pick for me or John Totoro for last, is it the only living pick pocket in New York or whatever it is? Yeah. Could be a surprise. Yeah. Yeah. So this one diverges a little bit more from what we had talked about earlier that we definitely had had Cruz and Damon and talked about Melkiewicz too as a contend. there. Yeah, we hadn't considered Pedro Pascal, maybe because he's a bad actor, but I do think that if Bohemoth ends up being a big player, as I'm starting to think it might be, then, yeah, it makes sense that he would be one of the ships raised by that tide. So I could kind of see that

happening now. Andrew Scott, that's something to watch. Yeah, that's something to look out for. definitely like a good performer who's well liked. Don't know much about the movie, but we'll see. So for the supporting actress, they've got number one and Hathaway. Number two, Mariana de Girolamo. I don't know if I got that one. Penelope Cruz for La Bola Negra, Sandra Hewler for Project Hail Mary,

and Samantha Morton for The Odyssey. Okay. Yeah. We haven't done full predicts for supporting. Sounds reasonable to me. Yeah. And for supporting actor, they've got Paul Giamatti for the debut, John Goodman for Digger, Steve Bishammy for Wild Horse Nine, Sam Rockwell for Wild Horse Nine, and John Likwasamo. So I'm a little surprised that we've got John Likwizamo over Robert Pattinson for The Odyssey here. Yeah, I'm a little surprised that the movie that gets two best party actor nominations is Wild Horse Nine and not The Odyssey in this list. and Edward Norton misses for the invite on this list as well,

which is maybe surprising as well. I don't, I didn't think Steve Buscemi would be on my list, but yeah. Okay. Interesting. Cool. Yeah, that I think about does it. Yeah, I think that about does it for me too. We'll be back very soon.

I'd like to get into some Oscars history stuff pretty soon. So stay tuned if you're, you're one of the people who likes historical sidebars because I think we could sneak in one of those before we really get into the fall of festivals. The season is going to start heating up soon. Maybe a premiere or a preview of the Venice Film Festival. That might be something on the horizon. I don't know. Maybe a little look ahead at what movies are going to be opening at Venice because that's kind of a big moment for the race as well. So there's definitely a lot of interesting stuff on the horizon as things start to kick into a higher gear. Follow along.

if you want all that good stuff. My name is Dylan Ferguson. I do write about movies on Substack. I have something up there right now about Blue Herod and Backrooms that you can check out for free if that interests you. Craig Midwinter, any final words you want to leave our listeners with? Just hit the like and subscribe. Tell your friends about this podcast. Post us wherever you are posting about awards podcast.

I don't know. But yeah, leave us a comment. Tell us what you think about those lists. what surprised you about them. I'm Craig Midwinter. Nice. Dylan Ferguson. We'll catch you next time on Oscars Ours Outsider.