Oscars Outsider - The Odyssey's Secret Weakness? And Who Actually Wins the Writing Oscars

Episode Date: August 25, 2026

Is The Odyssey actually WEAK on screenplay? Dylan and Craig make the bold case that Christopher Nolan's writing could be the one category his ancient-Greece epic trips up on — and back it up with a full slate of way-too-early predictions for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2026 Oscars.This week: Tony Gilroy's Behemoth! picked as the surprise Original Screenplay frontrunner, Quentin Tarantino's Cliff Booth script gets the harsh truth about his cultural stock, La Bola Negra vs. The Invite for Adapted winner, and why neither host put Digger anywhere near their lists. Plus: is Project Hail Mary buzz real, or just pre-festival noise?Films covered: The Odyssey, Behemoth!, Wild Horse Nine, The Debut, Fjord, The Invite, La Bola Negra, Project Hail Mary, Dune Part Three, Ink, Club Kid, The Social Reckoning, Josephine, Toy Story 5, Prime Time, Cliff Booth, Hope, Heart of the Beast. Categories: Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay.Chapters:0:00 News roundup16:27 Screenplay category history18:30 Best Original Screenplay predictions31:40 Best Adapted Screenplay predictions46:12 The Odyssey's Achilles heel

I think of the many things that a lot of people have been celebrating about the movie, writing isn't necessarily one of them. I feel like there are more people mocking Nolan's dialogue than there are celebrating Nolan's dialogue. Yeah. Yeah. That is if Project Hail Mary still continues to have momentum. And I am not fully convinced that we're only still talking about this because the fall

festivals haven't happened and there's nothing else really to talk about. Only two writers have ever won. screenplay Oscar three times. One is Woody Allen and the other is Billy Wilder. There is a very prominent active writer who has wetter twice and who has talked in interviews on I believe multiple occasions about his desire to join the Woody Billy Club as a three-time screenplay winner and that is Quentin Tarantino. And he of course has a screenplay that is coming out this year.

Though not directed by him, I'm talking about the Cliff Booth movie obviously. Do you think that the Academy will be able to resist nominating a Quentin Tarantino screenplay? Welcome back to Oscars Outsider, the show that looks at cinema, history, and culture through the keyhole of the awards race, the world's most annoying keyhole. And this awards race is a 12-month long affair for us. My name is Dylan. With me is Craig. We are the outsiders. How is it going?

Good. I would argue that it's even more than a 12-month because I'm already getting stoked about the 100th. I don't know about you. A little bit, but I feel like I shouldn't admit that. I feel like that's too pathetic to admit. I have no shame. We are here to talk to you about some of the updates that are happening

in various topics surrounding the awards race. Today we're going to continue our series on way too early predictions and we're going to start predicting what we think will be nominated for Best Original Screenplay, Best Adidas. adapted screenplay, which movies we think we win, which movies we think might get snubbed, which movies we think might be dark horses, all of that coming up. We always like to start off the show with a little roundup of news, things that have happened in the week since we last recorded.

So, of course, huge news this week, very, very, very active. We finally have the results that everybody has been waiting for. The location manager guild awards were held at the Eli and Edith Broad Stage in Santa Monica. And yes, huge, huge bombshell, the Humboldt El Norte Film Commission is this year's outstanding film commission slash office for its work on one battle after another. Craig, what was your favorite part of the ceremony? You know, I couldn't pick. I just don't think I could pick.

All right. So I'm joking. This has been another kind of a slow news week. Things are going to start picking it very soon when the fall of festivals get kicking off. But there still has been some stuff that's been going on. Craig, why don't you start? What have you been watching? Yeah, like right now it does kind of feel like we are laying foundation and a lot of like groundwork for this campaign going into the fall festival season.

Even like films that aren't necessarily going to be participating within the festival circuit this fall, there's stuff that is being released and just it feels like news is not like fully like the floodgates aren't open. but it does feel like stuff is trickling in. Like there was a, the Digger campaign, it announced that it was having like a royal film screening of, of Digger and. Well, wait,

and it gets this. Like, are you talking the British Royal family? Yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah.

And then they also, like, released a new still from, from Digger, which is just like a shot of Tom Cruise and Sandra Hewler. And is Tom Cruise, making a silly face. They're both looking out the window,

just like kind of off into the distance. It actually like when I looked at it, I was like, okay, it feels like they are maybe feeling that people think that this is going to be too goofy and are releasing stuff that looks a little bit more serious. They've been listening to us.

Yeah, it seems like they've been listening to our podcast, if I would have to guess. It is really funny to me that there could be some like suit in marketing being like, damn, we got to make people. people take our movie more seriously.

Let's make members of the Royal Family watch it. Okay. It's funny to me that's happening the same week that news and gossip has been trickling out about Prince Harry and Megan Markle, getting run out of Hollywood because nobody takes them seriously. Yeah. I will say that one thing that kind of caught my attention, maybe a small thing, but a place into what I was saying a couple of weeks ago, we were talking about our way too early prediction. for best cinematography, because that's the kind of thing we do. And I was surprised that we both had the same dark horse pick, which is Hope, the new Korean movie,

that premiered in competition at Khan by Nahang Jin. And I was saying that the thing that was making me hesitant about really predicting it as something that could be in any category in the Oscars, is that I didn't know what kind of an American release it was actually going to get. We do have some details on that now. Neon is releasing it in America, and they have announced that starting on September 7th, they're going to do a premium format exclusive rollout initially.

So it's initially only going to be screened in the air brackets, air quotes, premium formats, not necessarily IMAX, but things like Barco and D-box, you know, the kind of ticket purchase you make that has a brand name attached to it and it costs 50% more for some reason you're not too clear on. They're only going to roll it out in those premium formats in obviously a handful of cities at first, presumably as a way to kind of build hype and test the ground for a bigger rollout.

That's interesting to be because it shows that they are trying to build buzz for this movie, which has distribution rights all over the world. It was definitely planned from the start, I think that's kind of an international release, not just a Korean release. It has done pretty well in Korea, where it's been out for a while. They're trying to build hype that this is like an event film for films. nerds. Do you think this is the kind of campaign that could lead us to awards races or do you think that hope is not going to be something we're talking about come Oscar season? Yeah, that's an

interesting question because I can't think of really a precedent for this. Can you? This specific release strategy. Yeah. Apparently they use the same strategy for Osgood Perkins the monkey, which I don't know. Is it exactly a huge? hit that people love. Yeah, I mean, I think it's possible. It doesn't sound like a release strategy that is like proven to be really successful at building the awards. But the timing is right.

This had a pretty strong reception. I could see this being something that has like really good word of mouth around the circles that it needs to. So I definitely am not counting this one out. What are your thoughts? Yeah, I could see it sneaky into international feature and maybe cinematography, like we said in that episode, the cinematographer Hong Kong Pyo is kind of a legend in Korea. He's done a lot. You know, if you think of a famous Korean movie that looks good from the past 15 years or so, he probably did the cinematography before it.

I could see it entering the conversation for that reason. International maybe. I do not see it as like best picture material for sure. I think this sort of rollout could break either one or two ways. It could show that it is being pumped up as a prestige movie, but it could also show that it's just kind of a nerd spectacle film and that they're acknowledging it's a nerd spectacle film, and that's why they're banking on building word of mouth

from people who are into nerdy formats. In terms of like the awards prospects for this, it does feel like a little bit of an all or nothing push. Like this is this is kind of like their backs a little bit up against the wall in terms of awards prospect. And like if this this goes one way and it really kind of snowballs and becomes a hit, then I think that it has the potential like you said to do cinematography, international film. And I would say like the ceiling is maybe also including editing.

there and if there is the momentum that that's enough of a package to find its way into the best picture especially if some of the other films that are on our slate really have a falling off like you know at this time last year people were talking about j kelly and that is nowhere to be found so i'm still talking about jay kelly but i i do think there's still a lot of time yeah i do think that this is a release strategy that could potentially hit, especially if there's a mood for these, like, big spectacles, especially if, you know, amongst the crowd that wants to feel elevated, you know, it's, it's possible. I think, I think it's definitely possible. Yeah. I think there's not really room for it in that space, though, because if we do

have, like, Dune 3 and Project Hail Mary as, like, big contenders getting lots of nominations, as well as the Odyssey, these are three sci-fi slash fantasy spectacle movies, uh, and hope is that as well. Hope is a sci-fi spectacle movie. There just might not be room for a fourth one in the race. Yeah, that is if Project Hail Mary still continues to have momentum. And I am, I'm not fully convinced that we're only still talking about this because the fall festivals haven't happened and there's nothing else really to talk about. Well, we might have to revisit that question again a bit later when we do our screenplay predictions. Let's move on now. Well, what else do you have in terms of news, Craig?

Anything else you've, any other stories you've been keeping notes on? So I did see that there was a trailer that came out for Club Kid, which I haven't watched the trailer yet. No, neither have I. I'm curious about whether or not this is part of a 24's kind of big push here. They do have two fairly big films already on their slate that are presumed. Oscar contenders. So the invite and the debut, usually studios release a like four year consideration slate that has like three or maybe four, but they primarily focus their energy around one, maybe two films. So I'm not sure that there's room for Club Kid. Have you seen the trailer yet? I haven't. No, I'm interested in seeing it and I'll hold off any further comment

until I have. We haven't really mentioned Club Kids since we were covering the Cannes Film Festival, but it is worthwhile noting that that is the only movie out of Cannes that really had kind of a major bidding war for its rights and A24 ended up paying a pretty high price for it.

So just the principle of investment bias would make you think that they would want to try to position this as a movie that could make money. So I'm definitely interested to see if it gained some traction. with apparently it was a big crowd pleaser at Cannes. So, you know, anything that that can bear the label crowd pleaser as well as bearing the laurels, the little palm leaves of a con, of a con film. It wasn't in competition. I think it was in certain regard. I think it was in a sidebar. But anyways, it's something that could have that kind of marketability and also critical appeal. Yeah, totally. I think they're looking for like a November.

release. So yeah, it would be like right in the heart of award season. Yeah, I, I don't really have anything other than that. There was some like goofy news about, uh, Chris Hansen apparently going to 824. Did you see this? Uh, yeah, I saw that they, I think they offered to screen the movie for him, but he refused to decide a non-disclosure agreement. Yeah. And also I, I, I saw like, um, a little snippet saying that he was like, oh, I thought that was a bad casting choice for me. I would have cast Dennis Leary to play me, which I think is hysterical. I didn't hear that. That's really good.

So, yeah, I'm, as I mentioned before, stoked about primetime and if kind of a little, like, side quest of the, of the primetime campaign is the real Chris Hansen just popping up once in a while to make stupid comments. I'm here for it. Yeah, totally. I'm all for it as well. Yeah. The other thing was, I guess, teenage sex and death at Ken.

My asthma is in wide release, just putting it out there because I saw it. And I thought it was really great. Craig's just doing that to flex on me because I haven't been able to see it yet. I will say something that is Academy related, even though not necessarily Oscars related. One of the new initiatives that the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences put out or announced recently is that they're doing something called the Academy Markey Theater Committee, where they're going to be selecting 50 movie theaters, 25 from America and 25 around the world that are going to get, I guess, a special status that presumably comes with some sort of promotion funding as kind of important movie theaters. They announced it a while ago, but they just announced a couple of days ago who are going

to be the chairs, the co-chairs of this committee. And it's going to be Sean Baker and Samantha Kwan, his partner and producer. So I think this is kind of neat. I'm a huge movie theater guy. As you know, I'm the kind of person who will travel to a different city just because they have a really cool historic movie theater. So the announcement of the Academy's initiative, even though I'm not too sure what exactly it will entail,

I still think it's always cool to highlight historic theaters. Who was actually going to be the head of this initiative was always kind of the big question of bark about in terms of like whether it's going to be dumb promotion or whether it's actually going to be something that might highlight some real cool historical things. So I'm excited by the news that it's going to be Sean Baker and his partner who are going to be doing this. because I like Sean Baker.

I think he has a really fun and cool movie tastes, and he is a really great movie lover. So, yeah, I think that's neat. That's a neat little bit of news. Yeah, that's awesome. I wonder what exactly that entails. Like, if these are going to be places that are going to be guaranteed releases, that will be up for contention, that would be awesome.

Yeah, I don't think it really has anything to do with the Oscars itself. It's more just like the Academy, like, channeling some. funds and attention towards certain cinemas. Yeah, not too much else. Like I said, still a slow week. I could talk about some of the minor film festivals that I've made announcements, but Craig made fun of me for talking about Locarno last week, so I won't put my foot in it. Maybe worthwhile pointing out that the San Sebastian Film Festival are released its lineup,

and it's going to be premiering David Iyer's new movie, Heart of the Beast, starring Brad Pitt, and kind of a survival thriller. Have you heard about this? No, I hadn't heard about this one. I mean, I doubt it's going to be like an Oscar's heavy hitter. But if Brad Pitt has a shot at getting back into the Oscar nominations, I wonder if Heart of the Beast might be a better chance for him than the Cliff Booth movie will. I don't know. Yeah, I mean, there's definitely a world where he gets in for Heart of the Beast and gets like Norbit by Cliff Booth.

I don't know. That's saying that as someone that doesn't have a lot of faith in this clip booth film. But yeah, I'd be interested to see what that's. Yeah. Well, and that's another title that we might have to touch on again when we get to our main topic today. Should we dive right into it? Let's go. Okay.

So let's do some way too early predictions for what we think could happen with the two screenwriting categories, which movies we're going to predict a five picture slate for a, for Best Adapted, end to five picture slate for original. Let's predict our winners, too. Let's predict a movie that we think might miss the nominations, even though it feels like a heavyweight and then maybe pick something that could be a dark horse to slip into the nominations. That maybe a lot of people don't expect. So it makes sense to do this as a two-for.

They're usually treated that way. Quick little bit of history on the Screenplay Awards. The Adaptive Screenplay Award is old as the Oscar. itself, it goes back to 1929, but the original screenplay award is more recent. It only comes for 1940. The reason for that is that there used to be an Academy Award for Best Story. So in the first Oscars, which we've covered before, so go back and watch an episode on the first Oscars. If you're interested in some of that, that history from a hundred years ago, the first Oscars had a, had a winner for Best Adapted Screenplay, which went to seven,

Heaven, Benjamin Glazer script, and had a Best Story, which went to the underworld script by the legendary journalist and screenwriter Ben Hect. So, Best Story continued, actually, until 1956. So there was a period between 1940 and 1956 where there was three writing awards, Best Story, Best Original Screenplay, which debuted in 1940, and Best Adapted Screenplay. But Adapted is the only one of these three, which has always been part of the Oscar shares. And since 56, when they kind of retired the best story as a category, we have had these these two categories all along. So should we start with original or should we start with

ADAP? Let's go wherever you want to go. Damn. Why don't we, let's start with original. Let's do that. Yeah? Yeah. Okay. So we've kind of settled into a format when we do these kind of way too early predictions. We kind of trade picks one at a time until we've got a list of five films each. Craig, let's start us off. What is one movie that you are confident will be nominated for best original screenplay? Okay, so I am fairly confident that Wild Horse Nine is going to be in this. Yeah, that's, we're starting with an easy one.

I think Wild Horse Nine, Martin McDonough is somebody who's had screenwriting nominations before. This is the kind of movie where it feels like if it gets nominated for nothing else is getting nominated for this and it's probably not getting nominated for nothing else. Feels like an easy pick. Yeah. So I co-signed that as my first pick, Wild Horse 9. Give me a second one. Okay. So my second pick is the debut. Jesse Eisenberg has been nominated before for a real pain. The early buzz about this movie is that it is great. There was some article with Woody Harrelson recently who said he saw it and thought it was a masterpiece or something like that. So I'm trusting Woody on this one.

All right. I mean, he probably thinks that about every movie because he's just stoned as hell when he's in the theater. You probably just saw the ad telling you to go to the lobby for popcorn at the start. And it was like, this is the best movie I've ever seen. He smokes weed. So I will co-sign the debut.

That was one that I'm maybe not as confident as you are. I kind of, that's like my fifth pick. But I do have it on my list. So I'm going to co-sign that. Part of my hesitancy. is that despite what the trailer would have you believe it is a musical. And I think that might turn some people off.

A real pain I think was an easy thing to nominate because it's just a very talky kind of everyday dialogue movie, which is what people want to see from Jesse Eisenberg. And there's probably going to be that quality to this movie too. He is definitely kind of a literate guy. He's the kind of guy who occasionally publishes a piece in the New Yorker, you know, and that's the kind of stuff people want to see for our original screenplay. I wonder if the musical aspect is going to make. people a little uncomfortable. Not everybody digs that, you know. But I still do see it as getting into the nomination.

Usually best original is kind of less competitive than adaptive. So I think that there's kind of an easier path for the debut to get in there. So I will co-assign that as my second third as well. So my third pick, usually we see something that is either international or something that is from con. Maybe that's not necessarily true. But my third pick is Fjord. All right.

Yeah. Christian Munju, Palm Door winner. And I've got that on my list as well. That as we discussed in our last episode, we were kind of trying to look at what the consensus seems to be at this kind of end of the offseason, in middle of the middle of the year period. It seems like a lot of people out there have kind of gravitated towards Fjord as being

the foreign film with the best chance of getting into the best picture race. Kind of an easy thing to say when it's the Palm Door winner at this point, you know, before the fall festivals have started, it's easy to kind of just look at this point to the movie that won the Palm Door at Con and be like, that's probably going to get in. But yeah, I could see this as a movie that's going to generate a lot of dialogue. it already has out of con. A lot of people are probably being debating its meaning and the implications

of certain characters and scenes and stuff like that. That's the kind of stuff that can generate in original screenplay nomination. So we have three movies at least in alignment here because I also have Fjord on my list.

Okay, so now here's where I think that we might differ. I think that obsession is going to get an option. Yeah, we do differ. You're right. I'm world's number one biggest obsession donor. You're obsessed with hating it. Yeah. I do not see that happening. As I've said before, I can see Indy Navarette potentially getting into the best actress race, even though I didn't actually put her as end up putting her as one of my five picks when we did way too early predictions for best actress. I see that as the only race that that, that, that, that, this film has a hope and I do not see

obsession getting in there. And I would not be happy if it did because I think the writing's bad personally. But I like the writing on this one. I feel like it works. I mean, it does, everything kind of ties up in a nice little bow at the end, which I could see

potentially people not necessarily liking, but I just think that it works. I think, I think like Spielberg or Nolan said, like that movie works like hell. And I, I agree. Okay. So I'm going to have to go in a different direction, since this is one where we do not overlap. I continue to feel very bullish about behemoth, exclamation mark.

I really, really see, as I've said the past couple weeks, this being potentially the movie that people who want like a serious adult drama rally behind and push into the race. I see it as a best picture nominee, absolutely. And I think that the most obvious category. for it to get a nomination in would be best original screenplay it is tony gilroy he is a very well respected writer it is uh i have no idea what it's about aside that it seems to be taking place in the in the world of of of symphony music um but uh you know you got to imagine there's got to be some twist and turns and drama in there there's probably going to be some snappy interesting dialogue i think people are going to like this writing and i see it as an easy inclusion for best

original screen. All right. Well, that brings me to my number one pick, the film that I think is going to win. And I agree. It's behemoth. All right. Yeah, I think that behemoth is going to surprise people here. I mentioned on a previous podcast, if you have any interest in like screenwriting or screenplays, go and read Gilroy's script for Michael Clayton. It is so fantastic. And the way that he, writes dialogue is fantastic, but also the way he uses exposition within a script, which I think is like a muscle that a lot of screenwriters don't really exercise very much is just fantastic. I think that you should read this script. Everyone should read this script if you're interested in screenwriting. It's fantastic. And so I've got so much faith in Tony Gilroy.

Nice. Yeah, so I've got one more to round on my list. And so, okay, here's one movie which I'm not sure which category it's going to be in. That's going to happen for some of these. There are sometimes debates about what's original and what's adapted. I have read online that the social reckoning

would run as original screenplay. Oh, interesting. So I have put it on my list for best original screenplay, even though I'm not sure if that's how it would actually shake out. We have seen examples of movies running as original and ending up getting adapted that happened with Barbie, that happened with Moonlight, that happened with Whiplash,

where they ended up judging that there was kind of pre-existing movie or pre-existing source material, whether it's a proof-of-concept short film or, you know, toys, that invalid states the claim to originality. Usually a sequel is automatically adapted. Yeah. And Social Reckoning is talked of as a sequel to the social network. the social network ran as adapted because it was based on a book or an article. Was it based on Michael Lewis?

Anyways, it was based on preexisting work. The social reckoning is not based on preexisting work unless you consider it a sequel, but I have seen online that it is being considered as original because it's not based specifically on a source. And since it is based on real life, it's not based on characters that have been invented for the first movie. which I think is what kind of invalidates the sequelness of it because it's based on real life and things that are based on real life are original unless it's being filtered through an article or a book. So I'm putting the social reckoning as my fifth nomination for original with that asterisk at the end, mostly because it's Aaron Sorkin and I think there's still enough people who really dig Aaron Sorkin and his dialogue in this way of writing that it gets in. Okay. Interesting. Well, I had not heard that it was going to be within the original, but I think that one of the things that I love about these two categories is that we have those debates about whether something is original or adapted. I think we need more categories that are along those lines. Like I said on a previous episode, I think that we should split the acting categories between and original and adapted characters. But yeah, I have that in my list.

Maybe if we're going to get into our adapted picks, I'll start with that one. My number five pick is the social reckoning. All right. Before we dive right in, I just kind of want to wrap up the original category. First, by saying what we think is going to win. You said that you think behemoth exclamation mark is going to win. And I'm going to co-sign that. I also think behemoth, exclamation mark is going to win.

but I also want us to say what is a movie that we think is maybe seen by many as being in the conversation that we think is missing is going to miss a nomination entirely. And I'll say right off the top, I think that there was one movie that we talked about a lot that neither of us has put on our list for best original screenplay. And I think we might have the same pick in that case. So I thought about that. You can go ahead and say it, but I identified another one. Okay. I think the fact that neither of us have put Digger on our list is, well, again, we've been kind of on the Digger 8 train since the trailer came out. But I think that is something that would maybe put our list in conflict with a lot of other people predicting lists out there.

Is that I think some people would consider it controversial to not say that Digger is going to be a nominee for Best Original Screeplay. Yeah. Slap that Digger font, but make it say, Hater because you're too much the Hater podcast. Yeah, no, I agree. This one is falling for me. It's definitely possible that it's in there. Like, it would be crazy to count it out at this point,

but I feel like the bold pick is to say it's going to miss because I, I feel like its stock is falling. The other film that I saw that was on a few lists on, I don't know if it was gold derby or something like. that I saw Josephine, which was the, I think it was the double winner at Sundance. And there are people talking about this maybe being in the original category here. Okay. Interesting.

So before we move on to Adapted, give me a dark horse. Give me a movie that we haven't mentioned yet that you could see being a nominee that maybe other people are sleeping on. Yeah. So I think like I said that it's it's on some list, but I think Josephine would be would be the one that I could see possibly being being in this in this conversation. There's also what is it, the last living pickpocket in New York, which I think is an adapted. The church or a movie. Yeah.

And that's one that feels like it is maybe rising a little bit. So I could see that showing up. Okay. I'll give you a dark horse. One that I strongly consider pushing putting on my list. I almost put it on instead of the debut and we already mentioned it, Club Kid. I could see Club Kid generating a lot of buzzed down the line and the original screenplay. It seems like a kind of natural fit for where it could score a nomination if nowhere else.

Part of me kind of feels like the drama might have like an outside shot. Oh, okay. though I personally hate the movie and think it's terrible. It's still like a pretty like screenplay e-movie that has that's, you know, set in the modern day about like contemporary stuff. And that's the sort of thing that that often does well in this category, which is one of the reasons why I think behemoth is such a strong contender because it is a contemporary kind of issues movie. But ultimately don't feel that strongly about it. Just something that I could see kind of getting in there. consider towing with Fatherland.

I feel like I'm more bullish on Fatherland than most people are. But to make one pick as a dark horse, yeah, by Dark Horse pick, if it counts as a Dark Horse as Club Kid for original screenplay. Yeah, I think that's a good pick. All right, let's do Adaptive. I feel like there are more titles in play for Adapted. That often is the case since Hollywood depends so heavily on pre-existing material for so much of its movies.

So you already said that you've got the Social Reckoning as adapted and not as original. And again, we will not know what category it will end up in less or until the Oscars actually pick it because we have seen, as I mentioned, movies being positioned as one and getting picked as another.

So that's that's one of five for you. I obviously don't have it on my app because I have it on my original list. So let me go with one that I think is kind of an obvious pick, The Odyssey, based on this dude Homer

Christopher Nolan's screenplay feels like I mean it's going to be a heavy hitter in so many categories so there's that give me a second one Greg okay so for my second one

I'll just co-sign what you said the Odyssey obviously is going to be within this conversation I don't see a world where it doesn't although there have been people that complained about this script. I mean, we had a whole episode where we talked about the criticisms in it. There's also been people talking about not liking the modern language adaptation.

So I still don't see a world where this does not get it. No. I feel like in 2026 people who are like, no, period pieces should have everybody speaking in British accents are like a minority. I think like most of the. culture has moved on from that silly like old Hollywood trend. But yeah, some some old heads will be, it will be angry about that, but whatever. So that's two for you and one for me. So as we try to go from kind of, I guess, more obvious, less obvious. Let me give you another one that it feels like a bit of a shoe in for me. We talked about it heavily last episode, The Invite,

the invite based on a Spanish movie, has an adapted screenplay by Will McCormick and Rashida Jones and just such it's basically a play, just a very dialogue-heavy movie. So yeah, that seems like a, that seems like an easy one for me. Yeah, I will co-sign that as well. I think it's got a great script and I would be shocked to see this one. Okay. Another adapted that feels like just should be in there. Let's go with La Bola Negra. La Bola Negra falls and adapted because it's inspired by a Spanish play by playwright Federico Garcia Lorca. He wrote it, I think, late 20s or early 30s around then. So that qualifies it as adapted.

And again, feels like a movie that a lot of us are expecting to get multiple nominations. And this feels like an obvious category for it. And, you know, there's going to, as we said with Fjord, there's often one international movie that gets into one or each of these screenplay categories, feels like the most obvious one to me. Yeah, I think that Labola Negra has an even higher chance of getting in than Fjord does. Just based on the response that it's been getting and the momentum that is building for this, it is clearly Netflix's big push for the award season. And I think that we are going to see it in a ton of categories.

And I agree within the adapt. Okay, so that makes four for you and three for me. For my number four, let's go with Project Hail Mary, a script by the supremely annoying writer Drew Goddard, adapted from a novel by the also supremely annoying Andy Weir. I may not be a fad, but I have been talking myself into this idea that it is a movie that is going to continue

you just stick around and might weather the fall festival period and still be among the nominees. So I have put Project Hail Mary among my picks for Best Adapted Screenplay. Craig, what about you? So I've got Project Hail Mary missing. I have my final spot with Dune Part 3. I think that this is a year where we are going to see just a little bit more. recognition for the Dune films and the work that went into adopting these. I see Dune Part 3 in this list.

So Vilnov has a writing credit on Dune Part 3 along with Brian Kvon. I think he didn't have writing credits in the first two. Am I right in saying that? Or did I just make that up? So Vilnove did have a screenplay credit on part two. Okay. Okay. And part one.

Oh, okay. Never mind. But yeah. I mean, this is one that's going to be interesting to see if it's, is it more Avatar 3 or is it more Lord of the Rings 3, I guess is the question? Is it the trilogy maker that shows some fatigue among Oscars voters where they care about it less or is it the one that makes Oscars voters go, you know what? It's about time we showed a bit more love for these movies. That's going to be really interesting to see how it plays out. I ultimately had Dune 3 missing.

I kind of gave Project Hail Mary that slot. instead. I see Dude 3 as probably getting into the best picture nominations, but I could see it missing on screenplay. So that's why I don't have it there. So my last pick to round out my five adapted screenplay nominations. I'm going to go with ink. Okay. Interesting. So Inc. is going to be premiering at Venice. It is a Danny Boyle directed movie, a corporate melodrama about the Murdoch family. It is written by Stephen Graham, who, who, who James Graham, sorry, written by James Graham, who is a playwright who wrote, who wrote a screenplay based on his own play. That's a pretty good pedigree. I think, like, play to movie is a good path to getting an adapted screenplay nomination. A lot of prominent playwrights have gotten adapted screenplay nominations in the past, including George Bernard Schott, Tennessee Williams, Harold Pinter, David Mammett, Tony

Kushner, Florian Zeller. So that kind of in perimeter, the fact that it's going to have a play-like dialogue and come from that kind of pedigree gives it a bit of an inside track to be. This ink feels like the kind of movie that gets an adapted screenplay nomination and nothing else. Ink just feels to be like the kind of movie that gets an adapted screenplay nomination and nothing else. Yeah, I could definitely see that showing up there. There's a few that I'm kind of surprised weren't on any of our list. Was there anything that you're surprised, neither of us mentioned? Surprise neither are much mentioned.

Not necessarily, I guess. Yes, there is. There is. So let me preface this by saying just another little history sidebar. Only two writers have ever won a screenplay Oscar three times. And they are kind of writing legends. One is Woody Allen, who's one original. three times. And the other is Billy Wilder, who's won original twice and adapted once.

There is a very prominent active writer who has won it twice and who has talked in interviews on I believe multiple occasions about his desire to join the Woody Billy Club as a three-time screenplay winner, and that is Quentin Tarantino. Quentin Tarantino has won twice for Pulp Fiction and for Django Unchained. And he, of course, has a screenplay that, uh, uh, that, uh, that, is coming out this year, though not directed by him. I'm talking about the Cliff Booth movie, obviously. So I guess I'm a little surprised that neither of us has mentioned it yet. Do you think that the Academy will be able to resist nominating a Quentin Tarantino screenplay?

I really included the social reckoning largely because I thought the Academy couldn't resist nominating an Aaron Sorkid movie. So kind of on the same basis, do you think they can resist nominating a Quentin Tarantino screenplay, even if Tarantino was not the one to record? Yeah, I feel like that's more likely. I don't know, maybe this thing comes out and it's great, but just the vibe around it right now is not there. Like, it does not seem like something that anyone is super excited about.

So, but yeah, that is one that I am a little bit surprised that neither of us had on our list. Another one that still, I think, has some momentum within this category and maybe building is all of a sudden. I think that there's possibility that that gets in within this category. Yeah, could, could. Ruske Hamaguchi movies are pretty screenplay driven. So I think that's not impossible. I'll wait to see what kind of a release and reception gets in America. It is out in France right now where it's doing really well at the box office.

Not that that counts much for Oscars. But it'll be interesting to see if that movie kind of gets a lot of attention or not. So that's kind of, I think what makes me hesitant about calling it a multiple Oscar nominee is because, you know, the last Hamaguchi movie, Evil Does Not Exist, kind of just ended up on Mooby one day and didn't really garner much attention. So I'm kind of not sure which track, if it's going to be more drive my car, which got a lot of attention and multiple Oscar nominations or whether it's got to be

more like Evil does not exist. but yeah I could see that as a dark horse for sure yeah in terms of Cliff Booth just to wrap up my thoughts I agree that I think this is like kind of a moment where

Quentin Tarantino's cultural stock is at kind of an all-time low like I don't think he's very as respected as he has been in the past and part of the problem is that he's just not made a movie in a really long time so people are kind of forgetting that he's really good at making movies and are more just focusing on his public persona,

which has devolved into kind of just annoying, liking feet. Old out of touch, bozo, who lives in Tel Aviv most of the time now. So he's like, he's falling off the map in terms of cinema and his, his public perception as just a dude is like, is really tanked.

So I think that doesn't bode well for people embracing the Cliff Booth movie, unless it turns out that it's like really, awesome, which I'm not writing off that possibility, honestly. But that's also what's leading me to predict that the Oscars will probably ignore it completely, maybe even in Adapted Screenplay, despite it being written by one of the most celebrated writers of his generation. I feel like we're kind of talking around Dark Horses. I want us to each officially give one pick for Dark Horse.

What would your pick be? Have you already said it or is it something else? No. So there are a few dark horses that I think could potentially surprise. One is a film that I think is not on people's radar because a lot of people might think of it as a film for last year. But I swear, which is technically a film from this year. It is eligible. So I think that there is possibility that this shows up in adapted.

once it is out and kind of making waves and we're in the award season proper. But my real, real dark board. It has been out for a while, I think, in America. Is it? Okay. Whatever. But not in like wide release. Yeah.

Maybe there's still possibility for a wider release on the horizon. But I think it's been a limited release in America for like since July, if not June or something. I think that another one that could show up as a real surprise. is Toy Story 5. I think that there's a possibility here that this gets a screenplay nomination just because of all of the discussion

about AI and AI replacement is like so pertinent right now. And I think that this is something that is like very easily readable by the audience. And it feels like something that it might show up. So I think there's a possibility there. Okay. Okay. Um, my dark horse pick is going to be prime time. And I'm still stoked about prime time. I'm not sure which category would fall in, but it's my understanding that it's based on a Luke Dietrich article from Esquare that was published in like 2009 or something, which is a really good piece about the time that

an attorney general in like Texas or somewhere commit suicide because the the to catch a predator crew was awkwardly storming his house with the help of local police. So this is my understanding that it's based on an article. That would make it an adapted. An adapted pick. That's also I imagine like social reckoning. Something will have to kind of wait and see how it shakes out if it does end up in that conversation. But I'll put that as my dark horse. I could see that movie. Maybe making a few more waves than some people are expected to get to. So those are dark horses. Did we pick winners?

We didn't pick winners, did we? No, we didn't. We didn't pick a winner. All right. Give me your winner. What are you got? So I think that this is going to go to La Bola Negra, actually. I feel like there is going, this is going to be what is going to feel on the night,

like a consolation prize to La Bola Negra. and yeah, that's what I see. Okay, I'll go with the invite. I think there's a lot of enthusiasm about that script. A lot of people kind of find it, you know, relatable as well as fun. So I'll go with that as my winner. What's one that you think could fall off, could fall out of the nominations, unexpected? Well, Project Hail Mary is one that you said that I feel like it definitely could.

Like I said, I am having trouble discerning what the buzz around this movie right now for awards is related to the fact that we just don't have enough information to talk about anything else. So I do think that that is one that could definitely fall off. I think there's also a possibility that the social reckoning, if it's in this category, it could fall off. So I had this on my list, but I'm still going to pick it as the one that I think could fall off. And that's The Odyssey. You do touch on this. I'm not saying that I'm confident that's going to happen. But I am saying that if the Odyssey does less well than we think it might, one of the categories it could miss on could be screenplay.

I think of the many things that a lot of people have been celebrating about the movie, writing isn't necessarily one of them. I feel like there are more people mocking Nolan's dialogue than there are celebrating Nolan's dialogue. Yeah, true. I don't see it as one of the movies's great strengths. And like I personally feel two ways about it. I think like one of the things that one of the things that I do kind of appreciate about Nolan is that he is a populist. He does kind of want to to play to the back of the theater and make his movies very legible. But I also find it kind of annoying the way he sort of spells things.

out. Like, there's a bit at the end of the Odyssey where Matt Damon says something like, when people tell of this age, they will only do so in song. And I was like, damn, that's kind of a hard line. And then like a minute later, Padillope is like, say Odysseus, why would they only tell of it in song? And he's like, well, you see, because they can't read and write anymore. Like, okay, okay, thank you. I got it the first time. But that plus, like you mentioned the the controversies with Emily Wilson and other maybe less prominent controversies about things like him Christianizing the ethics of the original material. There's a lot of people kind of nitpicking his choices,

a lot of people criticizing and mocking his choices, that it feels like it could be more of a weakness than a strength, this category for him. This could be one of the areas, where we can see the total nomination hall end up smaller than what we might expect. Yeah, I think that is a reasonable pick. It will depend on whether this, at the time of the nominations, if it is something that is going on a historic run or, you know,

if this is something that there is just huge, huge competition against. Right now, it feels like a juggernaut. I see it just. Just like being present in basically every single category. But I think that your scenario does also. Since we're on the topic, what do you see as the Achilles heel for the Odyssey? Or what are the, okay, if we line it up next to say sinners last year, which of course had 60 nominations,

which of those nominations that sinners got do you think the Odyssey is most likely to miss on? We kind of had this conversation earlier, but I feel like revisited. visiting it. I think, like you said, I think writing is maybe a spot. And it's also, I think, I think it's possible that it maybe misses on one of the sound categories or the, it could miss on, it could possibly miss on sound. I think that I have heard people complaining about the sound experience within, within the film. But it's also like, there's a lot of sound. So that feels like it should be a bit of a no-brainer. With The Odyssey, the one thing about it is that it feels hard to identify a category that

it's not be there, which is, you know, kind of speaks to the overall experience and the event that is that film. And it just, it feels like something that is going to get so many roses. So I think maybe it misses in writing if what you're predicting to that is. to potentially happen happens, but I don't see this missing in a lot of categories. Yeah. I think compared to sinners, kind of the obvious weakness to me would be original song, which is one of those that sinners hit, which just kind of felt obvious for sinners.

It's a movie about music. The Odyssey could get the Travis Scott song in there, but I feel like it could easily be crowded up by competition. And that might not be the most obvious pick for the Academy. So that could be one that could stop the Odyssey from, you know, challenging the record, tying or potentially breaking their record for nominations. And after that, I already mentioned this earlier, but I could see it missing on costumes.

And I think I would say an original screenplay as kind of like the third most likely category for it to miss on. But I'm still putting the Odyssey in my like official to early picks. So I'm not saying that I'm confident that's going to happen. But I think it could be a weak spot for it. Speaking of best original song, we didn't talk about this in the news section, but it was announced that Diane,

Warren has a new song for the film By Any Means. The song is also called By Any Means. It is on Spotify. This is our sponsored segment. All right. Well, you know, I think we're about done the episodes. So Craig, play us off. Play us off. Let's just dance to the Diane Warren song as the credits roll. Yeah. I mean like she's going to be in this in the mix here. So maybe she's the one that squeezes out, Travis Scott. I mean, Delegate for a nomination is because everybody finds it funny at this point. I'm going to keep doing that forever. All right. Let's wrap things up here. Any final thoughts about any of these topics, Craig?

No, I, yeah, this was fun. I always love talking about the writing. And yeah, I'm, I'm eager to go and find some of these screenplays because I want to, I want to kind of dive in and see what they're all about. Yeah, yeah. That's for sure. Be fun. All right.

We've got some good stuff coming up. So don't forget to stay tuned, to subscribe, to, follow along. Let us know what you would like us to cover in the future. But we're definitely going to be covering Venice very soon because that's the first big domino to fall, the first big fall festival that we're going to start previewing you for. We're preparing a history episode as well too, which should be a lot of fun. So stay tuned for all that. Award season is going to be getting pretty spicy pretty soon. My name is Dylan Ferguson. You can find some of my rating on film on substack. Just look for my name. It is all free. That's Craig.

midwinter, Craig, any final thoughts for our listeners? Just hit, like, subscribe. Leave us a comment. Are there any films that we miss talking about that you think are going to be in one of these writing categories? And let us know whether you think that the social reckoning should be an adapted or original. I'm curious what everyone thinks about that. All right.

All right. We'll see you guys next time on Oscars Outsider.