Oscars Outsider - Venice Shocks the Oscar Race! Is Fjord Starting to Fall?

Episode Date: September 15, 2026

The fall festival season is starting to reshape the Oscar race.We break down the surprising end of the Venice Film Festival, where Woman Unknown pulled off an unexpected Golden Lion win, before turning to one of the biggest questions coming out of Telluride and TIFF: is Fjord suddenly in trouble? After winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes, its North American reception has been much more divided—and the backlash could matter when awards season gets serious.We also get into the huge TIFF response to I Play Rocky, whether it could become this year’s crowd-pleasing Best Picture contender, the growing buzz around Artificial, Netflix finally giving some of its awards movies real theatrical windows, France’s latest International Feature dilemma, and some increasingly wild Oscar predictions.Oscars Outsider looks at the awards race, film festivals, Hollywood, and Oscar history from slightly outside the usual consensus.Subscribe for weekly Oscar predictions, reactions, and film history.I’d use “Is Fjord Starting to Fall?” rather than repeating “Is Fjord in Trouble?” verbatim—the thumbnail and title reinforce each other without saying exactly the same thing.

My favorite reaction probably is from critic Jeff Zhang, who tweeted out more like Palm Boar. Yeah, I am definitely surprised. And I mean, I'm not going to take off my fuck Netflix underwear, but I am pleasantly surprised. But the question I want to ask is, do you think that Fjord is in trouble in terms of the award season? Oscar's outsider coming at you with our reactions to the shocking conclusion of of the Venice Film Festival, plus other sundry bits of news and updates. We are a podcast about the awards race, Hollywood, and film history.

So let's get into it. We're the outsiders. My name is Dylan. And with me as always is hard-boiled Craig. How's it going, Craig? I'm doing good. Yeah. You called the results of Venice shocking.

But I feel like you are maybe not shocked. One of the only people that might not be shocked because you called this. Oh, I'm glad that you're the one saying it. that I don't have to be the person that's that's tooting my own horn. I did say that woman unknown was my dark horse pick to win the golden line. And this was a surprise to a lot of people, a lot of those people out there who don't have gigantic, beautiful, throbbing brains. But, but, but, yeah, so getting caught up, the Venice Film Festival just ended like a day

and a half ago as we're recording this on the morning of Monday, September 14th. So, yeah, the Danish period drama, Hitchcockian drama, as it's often been described, women unknown from Egyptian Danish filmmaker, May al-Tuki, takes the golden line. How surprising is this? Well, it depends who you ask, but Mayal Tuki said in one of her interviews after she won that she had been looking at some lists of the films that were in competition or, you know, awards eligible before the festival. And there's 40 films between the main competition and the Orozonti.

section. And she said the list that she saw all had her name at her film's name at 39th or 40th. So it was definitely not something that most people were expecting going in. As we mentioned last episode, I felt like her star was rising throughout the festival too, though, because, you know, just the fact that she was the only woman solo directing a movie in this festival, which was kind of a flashpoint for a lot of critics. That made the journalist kind of gravitate towards her to get quotes about gender inequality in the industry. And her screening was also kind of dramatic because at one point the subtitles went out of sync and she had to storm into the projection, Ruth, and get them to rewind the film.

But yeah, the crowning moment is her getting the golden line for this movie, which really for a filmmaker who, you know, heading into this festival, she was a bit of a woman unknown herself. This is not a big name. This is not a big name. This is not a big name filmmaker by any means. And I think that's part of the shock for a lot of people of seeing this triumph. What was your immediate reaction to finding out that the woman unknown takes the golden line at this edition of Venice? Well, it was honestly like, damn, Dylan called it. But you made a really good case for it on, it was either the last episode or it was our Venice preview episode.

And so I was not completely shocked when it happened. but looking at the online discourse, it seems like a lot of people were pretty surprised by it. But yeah, I still don't see this as being a awards player here. And it's interesting that it seems like a lot of people that comment on this and watch the festival circuit with the perspective of kind of a awards like prediction mechanism. Like us, you mean? Well, yeah, like us, but like there's people that are like upset about this, this one.

Like, oh, this like doesn't make sense. Venice is like lost complete credibility. Especially Koreans, I think. I think Koreans are especially upset about this. So it does seem like there are a lot of Korean film fans that are upset about this. But just the general discourse on like Reddit at least, which is where I am lurking constantly, seems to have people upset by. buy this pick. And I mean, I don't know. I don't really have a dog

in this fight, but like I didn't think a complete unknown needed a sequel, but we'll see. A female-led spin-off. Yeah. Well, so reviews were generally very glowing, I think, for women unknown. Maybe not universally,

but it definitely seems to be one of the best reviews, films of the festival, from the reviews that I've been reading. A lot of critics have really been singing its praises, probably not the best reviews film. I think this is not like a scientific assessment. I have not tracked the data or anything. But it seems to me like the one that the most critics were most enthusiastic about this festival

was probably possible of the Li Changdong movie. Yeah. So that's, of course, what I'm referencing when it'd say. It seems like a lot of Koreans are upset about it because that's a Korean movie that a lot of people were really, really praising at a festival where there weren't necessarily a ton of movies that were like really blowing people away, I think, in some respects. But I think a lot of people after reading all this high praise of possible love and lots of big critics saying, oh yeah, this is the best movie I've seen at the fest, we're expecting

possible love to get the golden line. It instead gets the grand jury prize, which is considered the silver medal. So it's not like it's going away empty handed. It still does get a big prize. The other one that rounds out kind of. the top three movies is another movie that had a very big splash at the festival. And I'm talking, of course, about Naza, the documentary about Israel's campaign against Gaza, which was a dramatic late entrance into the festival after we thought the in-competition lineup had been set. It kind of got

snuck in. It had a very late premiere near the end of the festival. And director Alberto Barbera said that he did that on purpose because he didn't want the political discussion around the movie to kind of swamp the festival. Though he's kind of talking out of both sides of his mouth because he also said, he was also bragging at the start of the festival that this is the most political Venice ever, which is a weird thing to say about a festival that in its early years was often exclusively showing Nazi propaganda. But I get it.

He wants the discussion that comes with political films, but he also is apparently nervous about that overtaking all the glitz and the drama. stuff, which is why he put Naza at the end and also might explain why it ended up getting snuck into the lineup kind of as the last minute edition. You know, I love those standing O's, right? You know, I love those standing O trackers. So according to variety, the standing O that Naza received, which they clocked at 24.5 minutes is the all-time record for the Venice International Film Festival, a 20, 25 minutes standing O for Naza, which I got to say, look, this. is, I'm really excited to see this movie. It sounds, it sounds really, like a really just

interesting, interesting film that shed some light on some of the darkest aspects of Israel's campaign that people are maybe not aware of. I also find it a little bit funny that they have a 25 minutes stand to go during which the filmmakers, Yuval Abraham, and Rachel Soar, just kind of have to stand there looking somber and serious while people applaud them for 25 minutes. They can't smile and wave, you know, because it's serious, tragic subject. matter, but they make them do that for 25 minutes. Just stand there looking, looking sober. We're, so that gets the special jury prize.

So rounding out kind of what are often seen as kind of gold, silver, bronze medals. The third place we can call it goes to NASA. So those are sort of awarded as the top three. Do either of those other two strike you as surprising, possible love, getting the grand jury or NASA getting special jury? No, like those were films that we kind of expected to be within that

conversation, I think. So yeah, not overly surprised there. I guess the other one is Wild Horse 9, which is kind of like the big premiere that is probably going to have the biggest impact on the awards

circuit. And that won the Silver Lion, right? Am I right about that? No, no, no. The only prize won by Wild Horse Dyn was the best actor, the Volpe Cup for Best Actor, which went to John Malkovich. So it doesn't go home empty-handed, but it's not getting any of those top filmmaking awards. The Silver Line, which is for Best Director, went to Dow, the controversial Russian Project by Ilya Khrzanovsky. Yeah, so it's not going home empty-handed, but it's definitely not one of the top films being awarded here.

Does that surprise you that there's not more awards being handed to Wild Horse Nine? So at first, yes, it does, but it does feel like Venice is trying to, like, trying to have a bit more of an individual identity as a festival, as opposed to just kind of being a part within the award circuit where it's just kind of almost a. it just it feels like it's trying to distinguish itself from from Hollywood where you know in the past it has awarded some more Hollywood leaning films I don't know what do you think um I'm not that surprised I think like most critic reaction was very positive towards Wild Horse 9 but I don't think it was the movie that most critics were like talking about as the biggest revelation of the festival but I I do agree that they're not necessarily looking to pick the most Hollywood-friendly movie.

Inc. was the opening night film, and that doesn't get anything. But that's another example of a movie, which like Wilders 9 is a British film, but, you know, has kind of Hollywood stars and is expected to play well in America and that stuff. I don't think they're showing any preference for American films, which they have in some years in the past, where the jury president has been an American. And this year the jury president is again an American Maggie Gillenhall. So maybe that's the only way it's a little surprising to me is that having an American jury present hasn't shown kind of a favoritism towards, well, let's say English language films to not mislabel those movies. But, you know, they were a minority in this festival.

And that's usually how it is. That's how it should be. It is a film festival in Italy. It shouldn't be swamped by American films, in my opinion. So I can't say that I'm too surprised by that. And again, the fact that John Malkovich gets honored means that they still are giving it something. They're not like letting it go away with nothing at all. And it gets to go on to, I think it played a telly ride like right after, right?

And was well received. So, you know, I don't think we should necessarily be worried about the reception of Wild Horse 9 heading into award season just because it didn't get one of the top three prizes at Venice. I'll put it that way. Yeah. No, that makes sense. Another thing about woman unknown that was a little surprising was it got the top actress prize too,

which is kind of a break with tradition because Venice usually does not give two awards to the same film. Jury President Maggie Jelenhall explained that the pick for top actress was unanimous. And because of that, because everybody on the jury had the same pick, they were able to make an exception to the general Venice rule. give it a second award. So just one more Laurel being handed to this film.

So you said you don't think that this kind of dramatic surprise, big awards day for women unknown makes it necessarily something that we should be looking for come awards season. I mean, outside of the international category, I don't think so. So, yeah, no, I don't think so. Yeah, I mean, I think this. makes it a player on international film. I do. I don't expect it to get into the best picture lineup. So I'm with you on that. But I think this does muscle it into the best international

picture frame, which I think prior to the festival, people didn't really see coming. Yeah. Necessarily. Let's talk a bit more about those international features, because I would like to pivot a little bit to what's been going on in North America. Concurrently with the Venice Film Festival, we had teleride. Now Toronto was underway too, so I think we've got to talk about that a little bit. But the question I want to ask is, do you think that Fjord is in trouble in terms of the award season? Let me explain what I mean. Fjord, of course, won the Pomdor at Cannes, despite not being universally embraced by critics.

Now it has finally been screened in North America. It premiered at Tilleride and then right after at Toronto. So people in North America, critics here have been seeing it. And a lot of the reactions have been negative. There has been, I mean, some people have liked it a lot, but a lot of people have been very negative towards this film. There have been a lot of critics who have been kind of disparaging of it. My favorite reaction probably is from critic Jeff Zhang, who tweeted out,

more like Palm a bore, its finger on the scale. is so heavy and transparent that it sucks the air completely out of the film. Authorities and ambiguity plainly manufactured to minimal effect. I suspect this won't even be worth the inevitable insufferable discourse. I especially enjoy that. Great tweet. Yeah, yeah. And good use of the pun because he's not really going for the obvious pun,

which the New York posted with their review, which started off with Fjord left me, Bjord. which is what I expect from the New York Post, but, you know, kind of satisfying. But this tweet kind of summarizes the perspective of a lot of the naysayers, which is basically that, yeah, people are going to debate this movie, but it, like, shows its hand which side it's on. Basically, you know, it's a manufactured conservative perspective. And I don't want to have to discuss this movie with people and I don't like it. So compared to some of the con movies, which, you know, opened in North America for the first time over the past couple of weeks as Telly Ride in Toronto up and getting underway.

The reaction to the Palm Door winner has been a lot more messy and often negative. Do you think that the idea that this is actually an Oscar contender is now something that's in doubt? I think there's more question marks now, but I don't think that I would say that it's in trouble. I mean, this is clearly a film that is very polarizing. So there's people that are either loving this or there's people that are hating it, which I think could be potentially a negative thing, but it could also be potentially a really good thing. And a lot of the people that have negative things to say about it are like they're upset about well, they're upset about, yeah, well, they're upset about the, the politics of it. And I think that like the basis for this film is like a really political story. And I think that if there wasn't this type of reaction, that would be more of an indictment against this film than, you know, than having like discourse.

And yeah, the discourse is going to be insufferable and it's going to suck. But we'll see how it does. I think the box office is going to come into play. Like how many eyes are actually going to be on this film once it has like a North American debut and what like comes out of that? And you know, the the technicals of this are also going to be a big factor. I think one thing that is a little bit of a life vest for this film is that it seems like people have nothing but good things to say about Sebastian Stan and Renato Renzwe's performances within this. So I think that those campaigns are going to stay afloat, which is going to keep the campaign for Best Picture for this film afloat. That's just my prediction right now.

Obviously, it could completely tank here. And I do think that there's legitimate question marks about this. But I don't, I don't, I wouldn't say that it's in trouble yet. Okay. Yeah. I mean, my perspective all along has kind of. been like, if it generates a lot of debate, that's going to keep it in the public eye and that's going to keep people talking about it. And that's what's what's going to keep it alive come

award season. And of course, we're still a ways away from it actually opening in theaters here. I think I saw that they're looking at November to release it. A neon is distributing it. But maybe late October, early November, something like that, maybe earlier. Anyways, it will be interesting to see what the public reaction is. I think now, though, I'm wondering if the idea that it is being seen as kind of a controversial discourse movie is something that might have its negative side too, and that people like Jeff Zhang are going to be like, nah, don't care to engage in like bad faith arguments, so I'm just going to dismiss it. That could be the thing that tanks it. And we were seeing some interviews coming out around these premieres with director

Christian Munju and Sebastian Stan, where they're really four. around the idea of like, yeah, we want to get people talking. I'm starting to wonder if that's actually going to be something that people are going to be on board with. I still see it being around the race. I expect it to get a best international nomination. I think it's going to be interesting to see if it actually does get as far as a best picture nomination.

I'm not so sure that it will at this point. Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see because I feel like we're at a point within history where people are just like exhausted from really polarizing political discussion. And if a film that is marketed based on that and the idea is to generate that whether or not people are just going to be like, I want to sit this one out. Yeah. So yeah, I think it's going to be interesting to see how it plays when it opens.

But yeah, I don't think of that. it's in trouble yet, but there's definitely more question marks around this now than there were, you know, back when it won the palm to ore and only, only people who had been to Kahn had seen it. Yeah, yeah. Whereas other con movies like La Bula Negra got its North American preview at Telleride and, and sounds like people loved it there, you know, some other movies have just been getting really big receptions, club kit as well. Should we talk Toronto a little bit we're kind of partway through the Toronto International Film Festival right now. Should we pivot to up here up north? Yeah, let's let's talk about Toronto. Yeah. So what are you watching out of

Toronto? What are you looking for here? Or what reactions have caught your eye? Um, so I don't know what it is about Toronto that I just like find it hard to get a little bit stoked about this festival. It just like, it feels like kind of a cheezer festival, if you ask me, like your aunt's favorite film festival. So I think that maybe there's like a slaughter to coming that for films coming out of Toronto, like premiering at Toronto that could be within that best picture conversation that are going to be like the films that I am going to be reluctantly watching in order to complete the slate. So I am interested in the I play Rocky premiere a little bit here. So apparently it played huge to the audience, right? I don't know if you saw this. Apparently.

That's one that was a bit surprising for me. It wasn't surprising to me because this feels like a very Toronto film audiences in Toronto are known for being enthusiastic and let's say not necessarily discerning. And there was apparently multiple. moments where the audience broke into applause during the I Play Rocky premiere, which is, of course, the movie about the making of Rocky and just blew the roof off as the reports and the trades said, even though critical appraisal was often mixed. Some critics really embraced it and others kind of called it cheap and manipulative. This, I think, is worth watching because it's eerily

similar to another Peter Farrelly movie Green Book, which in 2018 premiered at Toronto and also had a very enthusiastic reception despite dividing critics. And that of course went all the way to winning Best Picture. So there seems to be a bit

of an uneasy rhyme here between this movie and not Farley's last movie, even though people love to talk about I Play Rocky in the like, you know, press material that I've seen being like the new movie from Green Book director, Peter Fairley, as if this was as a follow-up and he didn't direct like Ricky Sninicki and Balls Up in the interim. They're just just going to pretend that those like Amazon Prime original comedies with Paul Walter Houser and Mark Wahlberg don't exist.

Oh, I wonder why. So I don't know. Do you think that this has green book potential? I don't know if I'd go so far as Green Book. I mean, obviously, that feels like the ceiling, but it doesn't immediately say to me that it's going to be a contender. But it's definitely a better reception than I was kind of expecting. And it's more on my radar now than it was before. The thing is, there has to be one movie, I think, usually one, maybe two in most best picture lineups that critics often.

kind of don't like, but like the public likes it a lot. And you got to have one of those in there. And earlier, I was kind of thinking reluctantly that maybe Michael was going to be the movie that was like, you know, your general public, your coworkers went to see it and loved it. But the critics were mostly like, yeah, this is very good, but still gets into the Oscars light up. I'm starting to think that that I play Rocky is the one that's going to have that slot. That's going to get that best picture nomination slot. I think that you could definitely be right about that.

It feels like this is at least a bit easier to digest for critics. And so I think people will feel a bit just slightly more elevated, like writing this down on their ballot than Michael. But Michael was the first biopic that made a billion dollars on the box office. So I am not ready to completely write it off yet. I do think that it would not be surprising to be amongst that best picture roster, but I could definitely see what you're saying. One thing I wonder about how I play Rocky is going to play out, how the discourse around it is going to be once it actually opens in theaters, is kind of the Sylvester Stallone of it all. It's obviously a movie about Sylvester Stallone.

And apparently, from what I've read, really dramatizes that. kind of self-mythologizing version of the story that Stallone is like to say about the making of Rocky, which might not necessarily be entirely true, but we're all familiar with Sly's version of events. And so it appears to be very generous towards him. But he's not involved with the movie and hasn't really said anything about it so far. And his relationship to the larger rocky world lately has often been, well, rocky. He, he had to falling out with the producer,

Irvin Winkler, over like not getting residuals or something. And he broke ties with the Creed sequel franchise, somewhere between the second and third movies. So how he's going to react to this movie,

I think he's seen it already, but I don't think we've really had him talking about it yet. I wonder how that's going to play. Is he going to be on board? going to show up at events, you know, Academy events maybe to try to gin up support. Or is he going to keep his distance? Is he going to react more like Chris Hansen did to the prime time and be like, no, I don't want to see it.

I don't want anything to do with it. Can you go to ads before each screening? I mean, Slies a wild card, right? Like, you don't really know how he's going to react. And also, like, if he embraces the movie, is that going to be to the movie's credit or is it going to be to his, it's discredit? You know, as Sly has kind of cozyed up with Trump too, and some people will probably see him as a toxic figure now because he is kind of mega adjacent these days. So I don't even know if it's better for the movie if he becomes associated with it or if he keeps his distance from it.

I don't know. How do you see that plague out if this does become a movie that's kind of prominent in award season? Yeah, I don't know. I'd be interested to kind of see how biopics with living subjects. have fared and like if there's any correlation to the presence within the the overall campaign for those those films just to see if there's any sort of precedent but you're right he is relatively a like divisive figure now so like a lot of people still love Sly too for sure like he's definitely a beloved figure I think that there is like a kind of disconnect between

like Sly now in 2026 and you know Sylvester Salone who made made Rocky like I have a separation in my mind and maybe that's just to allow me to enjoy enjoy Rocky more but so I could see it going either way I I don't think it makes a huge difference either way to be honest I don't think that the slot that I play Rocky has the potential to fill is going to be impacted either way by his involvement. Yeah. That's the diplomatic approach. I could see him like just saying some random stuff that, but then again, that could be the kind of thing that drives discourse and keeps people talking about the movie, which keeps it visible and in the discussion enough that that carries it through to maybe a best picture nomination. I'm starting to feel like we're going to see a best picture nomination for this. What else we got in Toronto, though? So in Toronto, there was, um, was it your mother, your mother?

Did that premiere yet? That was one that. Yeah, the Mahershala Lee movie. Yeah, that was one that I was like, it kind of piqued my interest. I'm not sure how that was received. Do you know if that one even premiered yet? Uh, yes. And I've seen nothing but positive reactions.

Okay. So that's one that I think was not really on people's radar going in. But when I saw it on the slate, I think that there's definitely some potential here. Was there anything else that you saw? Look, I feel like what I'm going to say about the opening movie at Tiff is going to overlap a little bit with I Play Rocky, so I don't want to belabor the point. But the opening film was being human by Sean Hader, the director of Coda. And that also had like a very positive reception from the audience, though had some critics saying it was a little. a little a little treakly.

So that's also one that I think is worth keeping tabs on. I feel like if there's a film out of, that's premiering at Toronto because there are a lot of films that are playing at Toronto that are getting kind of big looks in front of a lot of critics who haven't seen them yet because they've only played

in Venice or Khan previously. But in films that are actually premiering at Toronto, I think which one is going to potentially be an awards player is really probably going to come down to either I Play Rocky or being human. I think one of those two movies has the best shot at maybe sneaking into the best picture race.

I feel like I Play Rocky is the more likely one. How about you? Yeah, it feels like it is probably more likely to be I Play Rocky, but... That's a biopic too, being human about a disability rights activist. So two kind of potentially crowd-pleasing biopics. Yeah, I mean, it feels

like that is probably going to go the I Play Rocky way if there's going to be a nomination that comes out of TIF for kind of that proud pleaser. The other one that we've talked about previously that could maybe fill this

spot even though it is not necessarily a more like triumphant story but ink I think could be in that biopic conversation. I'm feeling Feeling like maybe prime time is not within that conversation for the biopic slot.

But I think that ink could be there. And another one that is starting to generate some buzz, that is a bit more on my radar for the biopic genre is artificial, which had a trailer that dropped. Yeah. And Andrew Garfield looks like he, yeah, he looks like he kicks ass in it. So a bit more interested in seeing that. one. Yeah, I was also going to mention the artificial kind of just a teaser trailer really, but gives you a sense of the vibe of the film. And my reaction was not unique apparently because I saw after lots of other people had the same reaction, which is kind of like, oh, this feels like the real, the social network follow up. You know, like the social reckoning trailer looked kind of ass. And but but this feels like they're real like this is like the the 2026 version of like.

like the weird tech bro who has too much power movie. And I trust in Luca Wooden, you know, I trust in whatever his approach is going to be. And the creepy vibe of the trailer is very cool. Andrew Garfield, like you say, looks really good in that role. I am very excited about artificial myself. Yeah, totally. There are some other trailers that like drop that I want to talk about.

Let's do it. We're done with Tiff. But the trailer for Cliff Booth, the further misadventures of Cliff Booth, did you watch this yet? I don't know if I saw the most recent one, but I think so. I saw a trailer like a few weeks ago or something. Okay, this is the first one that I saw. And I was kind of like pleasantly surprised by the trailer. This is one that I've been kind of saying who asked for this movie.

This is like is going to suck. But it looks like classic Fincher. And I think that I'm excited for that. Like I was not looking forward to like Fincher trying to impersonate Tarantino. That just like was not going to work for me. But this felt like it leans more into Fincher's instincts, which is personally something that I'm interested in. So that is one that is more on my radar now having seen that trailer. Yeah, the one thing that might be worrisome about the Cliff Booth movie is that we now know that it had some pretty extensive reshoots apparently.

And Alberto Barbera, the festival director of Venice, suggested that that's why it wasn't playing at Venice, that he would have scheduled the movie if it was finished on time, but they had to go into reshoots. And for a lot of people, that's always a red flag, right? When you hear that a movie went into reshoots, it's a sign that something isn't playing well, that something hasn't worked out as well. they hoped it would and that they're trying to save the movie. Not always the case. You know, some movies that go into reshoot still end up being really cool. But that might be a point of concern. But I'm definitely very interested to see the movie.

I want to use this as a transition to talk about something else I wanted to talk about because the Cliff Booth movie is a Netflix movie. Netflix is going bigger on theatrical releases with Cliff Booth and some of these other movies than they have in the past. So this is kind of an interesting thing that Netflix, which of course has famously always been very, very shy about theatrical releases. Their business model has always been about theater as the past, looking at things on your phone is the future. They are giving 45-day theatrical windows to several of their releases coming out, including the Cliff Booth movie, which is going to open an IMAX, actually. Yeah, they're going to do IMAX greetings for Cliff Booth.

And they're also going to have that maximum theatrical window before it goes on screening for La Bolognaigra, notably as well. So that shows a lot of confidence in La Bola Negra. I think if there was any doubt about it actually being a big award season player. And I was maybe a little slow on the update to accept that it actually was. I think at this point, it's pretty clear cut now that it had kind of a really big reception at Telluride. The critics in America seem to like it. and Netflix seems to be going whole hog with Oscars campaign, 45-day theatrical release.

It looks like that this is going to be kind of an event movie when it does get released. Inc. is also a Netflix movie, and Inc. is also among those titles, which is going to get the 45-day theatrical release window. So this is an interesting development from Netflix, which, of course, almost acquired Warner Brothers recently. and ended up either unfortunately seeing that slip away or dodged a bullet depending on which take you subscribe to, that they are still nonetheless apparently open to the idea

that being more of a theatrical release company is going to be part of their business model going forward in a way that it wasn't before. So I guess I'm hesitantly, enthusiastic about this. I don't know. Were you surprised to find out that Netflix is giving these substantial theatrical releases to some of these movies? Yeah, I am definitely surprised. And I mean, I'm not going to take off my fuck Netflix underwear, but I am pleasantly surprised. And this is this, yeah, this is this is a good thing. So yeah, I'm, I am going to try to see all of these in the

theater just like voting with my money. For sure, for sure. Right. Well, let's move on to something else. Last episode was all about the best international feature category. We not only talked about this years, but we kind of dove deep into past years and the history of the category. If that sort of stuff interests you, I strongly recommend you check it out because

some really fun discussions and historical sidebars. But one country that we've been talking about a bit that I've especially been talking about because I find this always very interesting as France, because they always have these kind of debates over which movie to submit as their official selection for Best International feature. I don't know if you saw this, Craig, but France released a short list, so they have narrowed down five films. No, I did not. Yeah, so the five films that they are now considering to submit to the Oscars are Minotar, which is one that we've talked about before, a movie which won the Grand Prix at Cannes from Andres Vecinezv, but which was a French production.

Also, DeGal, the Iron Age, part of a planned series of biopics about Charles de Gaul. Also, the unknown from Arthur Harari, which was another Cannes, starring Leah Sedoux. That's kind of an interesting one. I wasn't sure which of the Seidu movies from Cannes, they would kind of put their weight behind because there's also Gentle Monster, and I kind of felt like Gentle Monster was going to to be the one that that would come out of that, but it looks like the Arthur Herrary movie, The Unknown, which is kind of described as sort of a body swap thriller horror thing. Sounds really interesting.

Arthur Harari was the co-writer on Anatomy of a Fall. That's one that I'm looking forward to seeing. Rounding out the list, La Gradira, which played at Khan as well when the Grand Prix had Critics Week, but was not in the main competition. And an animated film, which also played at Khan and when an uncertain regard jury prize, Iron Boy. So four films from Khan and one which is kind of the French equivalent of a blockbuster, the Dugal biopic.

I don't know. Do you have any thoughts on any of this? I mean, it feels like Minotaur makes the most sense, or at least that's the one that has the most recognition for me. So that's kind of what I'm expecting coming out of here. But you made a good point. Minotar is not a French language. film, right?

No, it's not. I think the dialogue is mostly in Russian, I believe. Yeah, so that is probably going to play against it. What's your feeling there? Yeah, I've been saying

throughout this process that I really feel like they're going to try to pick a French language movie following the backlash they received in some quarters for not picking French language movies in recent years,

especially picking it was just an accident last year. So I agree that Minotaur has kind of the most cinephile appeal. It's from a director who has a certain reputation. But I think they don't want to repeat. It was just an accident from last year. I'm a little nervous. I'll go with the de Gaul movie, which I think won't even make the nominations if they pick it. But I feel like

the French, the people on the French selection council often get a little too. galaxy brain with these things and get too caught up in the stereotype of Americans being stupider than there, which is I think how we got into the situation where the taste of things was

selected instead of anatomy of a fall. I think they might have just thought, oh, anatomy of a fall is too intellectual for Americans. They won't want to vote for it. And of course, it ended up being a best picture nominee and winning best screenplay. DeGall is the most kind of like blockbustery movie. I feel like there's going to be some people being like, that's the one

Americans will like and I hope they don't do that because that would be a mistake. I'm going to say that I think that they do go

with the unknown. I think that that's a movie that has some potential for, I don't know if it has an American distributor,

but I could see that has as having some potential to gain some traction. Lacey do is, of course, an actress who Americans know pretty well.

I'll predict that that's what they're going to go with. Okay. Will it actually make the nominations? I don't know about that. I'm not.

sure if any of these would make the nominations except for maybe Minotar, which probably has the best chance of actually making the nominations, but I don't think they pick it. Right. What else of anything else you've been keeping tabs on this past week? Emmys. No, I'm kidding. No. God.

You almost made me shut off by camera. There was. So our boy Clay Clay at Variety did do a updated Oscar prediction list. that came out at the end of last week. Did you take a look at this? I have not. No, hit me with it. Does he still have being human on it?

So he did all the categories on this. This is comprehensive. We're not going to go through all of them. But let's do Best Picture. What's he got a Best Picture? Okay. So the first one that he's got listed under Best Picture, this is the order that he has put them.

And I believe it's alphabetical. So read into that as much as you want. The debut is his first pick. Right. We haven't mentioned that, but that was maybe the big premiere at Tell You right now. Yeah, Dune Part 3 is on there. Fjord is on there. Okay.

The Invite is on there. Okay. La Bola Negra is on there. Yeah, nothing surprising so far. The Odyssey is on there. What? Just go. Project Hail Mary.

Okay. Wild Horse 9. Sure. Wildwood. Okay, Clay. And you can see everything. He's putting the Nathan Fielder movie on his best picture list. He is putting it on there.

Yeah. Deranged. I'm sorry. So that is not the only place that you can see everything is showing up on his list. He also has it under supporting actress with Redacted. So he has not mentioned who is on there. Come on, man. It's getting too cute.

and it's also in the list for well documentary and cinematography's got it so come on pretty so wildwood correct if I wrong is that not an animated movie I think that's an animated movie wildwood is an animated film yes yeah so so it wouldn't be a clayton Davis list without a couple wild cards throw it in wildwood and um you can see everything is those are that he's just sprinkling that in for fun you know that's just getting a little goofy with it. That's how I see it. It feels a little, a little clicky,

a little clicky. Neither of those are getting anywhere close to best picture. I'm sorry. They're just not. That's not happening. So I've got, I've got some concerns about you can see everything. I feel worried about it like being a bit over exposed by the time it shows up and the

internet being really super annoying about it. But I do love Nathan Fielder. So I'm still. excited for it, but it's already like oversaturating my, my feed of it. So here's the thing about Wildwood, actually, because there, Clayton Davis had an article maybe a few months ago or something that was, the headline was something like, why aren't the Oscars giving more love to animated movies? But the body of the article was basically, as I recall, largely an interview with the head of the, whatever animation studio at

Likar, it's called or something. The animation studio that made that movie. It was basically a big ad for that goddamn movie. And now he's putting it as a best picture, Dobby. I see what you're doing there, man. Yeah, I mean, he's also got Wildwood in the adapted screenplay conversation as well. So it definitely feels like he is pushing these more than predicting these. Yeah.

I if if wildwood gets into either of those categories I will I will fall on my pen I will commit Harry Kerry with this this pen that's how confident I am that he is he's out to lunch on this that he was charmed by some executive at like a studios and and is now basically right writing free publicity for them yeah I mean I can definitely see where you're where you're coming from with that he's got wildwood and original score as well this is but you know what that's fun. And original song. Like, yeah. You got, your list isn't fun unless there's a couple like long shots in there. If it's just like, if your list lines up with like the ones that have the best odds on betting platforms or gold derby or whatever, like that's just super boring.

Like, who cares? You do got to spice it up a bit. So as much as I'm kind of ragan on him here, I appreciate that there's some spice. Uh, right. Anything else that you've been watching? Not really. I mean, if we want to talk about animated a little, bit more. I think that there are reviews coming out for the new Ardman, which is actually not in Clinton Davis's animated feature, even though the Academy seems to love Ardman and Wallace and Gromit and Sean the Sheep and all that. So maybe that's what takes the wildwood spot. But yeah, I don't really have anything else. Once we're dipping into the

animated category, I feel like it's a good time to say if we don't have anything left to talk about. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We'll do the animated category. already one of these weeks when I am sick. And you can do it with somebody else. All right. So things are going to keep rolling here. Toronto's going to wrap up. We're not done with Toronto yet.

And the New York Film Festival is right around the quarter. And I'm really interested about the New York lineup this year, especially the premiere of behemoth. But there's a lot of other interesting stuff there that's going to drop. Seeing the first American. Yeah. seeing the first American reviews of Paper Tiger when it is the opening night film. It's going to be really interesting to see if that does in fact become an afterthought or

an interesting player that generates a lot of dialogue. So things are definitely heating up here. Stick around. Keep following us for more updates. If you're into this sort of thing, we are Oscars Outsider. We do this more or less every week. And my name is Dylan Ferguson. And you can find some of my writing about movies very occasionally on Substack.

all free. Just look for my name, D-Y-L-A-N-Ferguson. Craig, it's been a slice. Yeah, I'm Craig Midwinter. Be sure you hit the like, subscribe and all that. I want to know from anyone that is still listening here, what do you think is overrepresented in prediction lists that you're seeing? What do you think is going to completely fall off of the face of the earth come awards circuit? That's one thing that I'm interested. So leave a comment, let us know, and maybe we can talk about that. Yes, yes. I would love to have that springboard to jump off of. So yes, please let us know what you think. All right, don't forget to like, subscribe and share and all that fun stuff if you feel like it. We're the outsiders. We'll see you again next week.