Oscars Outsider - Which Cannes Movies Could Crash the Oscars?

Episode Date: May 13, 2026

This week on Oscars Outsider, Cannes is open, but Hollywood might have left the group chat.We dig into a strange Cannes lineup where the big American studio titles mostly stayed home, while European, East Asian, and international festival heavyweights take center stage. What does that mean for the Oscar race? Is Hollywood avoiding the risk of an early festival reaction, or is Cannes simply becoming less dependent on Hollywood glamour?We also look at the films that could emerge from Cannes as real awards contenders, including potential international players, major auteurs returning to the Croisette, and the movies that might shape the Best Picture conversation months from now.It’s Cannes season, which means it’s time to overreact responsibly.Subscribe to Oscars Outsider for awards race analysis, Oscar history, festival coverage, and movie conversations from outside the usual pundit bubble.#Oscars #Cannes #CannesFilmFestival #OscarRace #BestPicture #Movies #AwardsSeason #FilmFestival

By my count, there's like four films that could have potentially been here that decided to stay home. Yeah, so Herzlke has a new movie called Bucking Fastered and had previously appeared on lists of movies that were going to play in Cannes, but apparently it is not. And I guess Herzog was upset about that. We are doing a little bit of a whitewashing of his involvement with Scientology. Welcome back to Oscars, Outsider, a podcast about the awards race and high. Hollywood history. I'm Dylan Ferguson and over there is Craig Midwinter. Hey, Craig, how's it going? Really good. It's can season. Yep. We are opening the can. This is your, this is your can opener special. So we have talked about can briefly in a previous episode of Bravo Outsider. We just did a kind of a

quick preview once the official lineup was announced where we talked about some of the potential heavy hitters coming into coming into Khan. So if you want to check that out, it's on our Bravo outsider feed, I think, right, Craig? It is on the feed that you're listening to this on, but you can also check it out on YouTube at Oscars

Outsider. Yes, yes. So please just do that if you want to hear some more of a reaction to the lineup. We talked about what might be some potential Oscars contenders coming out of Cannes. Very hard to judge before the films have actually played. but, you know, that's never stopped us before.

Yeah. Yeah, we were saying that the Pavel Pavlovakowski movie, Fatherland, with Sandra Healer, might potentially be an Oscars player. And we're also talking about how it's kind of interesting that there aren't really any big Hollywood titles that are premiering this year, but that the lineup is pretty, pretty deep in terms of European and East Asian films, especially from some big name festival directors who haven't really had a movie out in a wide. now Khan is officially opened it opened just last night the opening film was the electric kiss a french movie out of competition

so i thought we should dive into that a little bit more um i don't know if there's any con news craig that you really wanted to jump in here before we're talking about the movies no i mean as we're recording i think it just things opened last night so i haven't i haven't had a chance to check to see if there's anything too interesting that that came from from the opening day. But yeah, I did want to double tap a little bit on what we were talking about with regards to there being no real Hollywood presence because I've been like kind of dwelling on that. And I'm curious if you like have thought of any other reason why there's no presence from Hollywood.

I mean, saying there's no presence might be a bit of an exaggeration as we talked about the previous time. There is the new James Gray movie Paper Tiger, which has Adam driver and Scarlett Johansson and Miles Teller. So that definitely counts as a Hollywood movie, though, you know, as I was saying before, James Gurey movies tend to get a big reception in France and be more or less ignored in America. So that does feel more like a European festival circuit player than a Hollywood award season player. Yeah, I don't know.

Like, I like it. I don't need to see, you know, a blockbuster movie. Though I think it is worthwhile pointing out that there are some big American. movies from the past that are getting special screenings at Cannes this year. So they're not completely snubbing Hollywood. I think Lord of the Rings is getting a special screening. Or is that Peter Jackson's getting an honorary pod door anyways. Maybe they're not screening the movie.

I might be wrong about that. They are screening fast and the furious. Fast and the Furious. At 25th anniversary edition, midnight screening is happening. So there definitely is like gestures being weighed towards. Hollywood, but you're right. In terms of new premieres, there aren't really big Hollywood premieres. I don't know if Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey was ever in discussion. If that's something that Khan didn't want or that Nolan didn't want to put in Khan, I think that's probably the more likely

things that Nolan didn't want to put it in Cannes and that he wanted it to be a classic blockbuster premiere and not get the festival premiere first. I'm not sure. By my count, there's like four films that could have potentially been here that decided to stay home. So like you said, The Odyssey Digger is another one. Disclosure Day from Spielberg is one that could show, could have shown up. And then there's that like spin off of once upon a time in Hollywood that Fincher is directing off of Tarantino script, which is maybe the surprise, most surprising one of the bunch since, you know, Tarantino does have a history with, with the festival. Yeah.

Yeah. And so to Spielberg, too, both Spielberg and Tarantino have been jury presidents before. Tarantino has won a Palm Door before for Pulp Fiction. Yeah, I don't know if how much Khan would have really been interested in the Cliff Booth movie. I mean, maybe. I don't know. I don't know. It seems very ill-advised.

I don't know. That's just like my gut says this is going to be bad. I mean, I don't know. I'll see it, but it's like it's a Netflix movie too. It's not like it's, it doesn't feel like a tent pole to me. Fincher has been like his partnership with Netflix has been a little odd to be. He's been so into it. He's doing like the English language squid games remake.

And he just seems a little too, too into doing whatever Netflix wants of him. Get that bag, baby. I mean, it's disappointing because I love Fincher, but you know, you got to do it. Also, you got to think that if Tarantino was super confident in his script, he would have directed it himself. The fact that he passed it off to somebody else might be a bit of a red flag that he's like, eh, it's okay. But not good enough to really invest in. Oh, there is another US film that is in competition.

It's the Iris Ax, the man I love with Rami Malik. Yeah, you're right about that. There is the Irisax movie. But Irisax, again, like James Gray is kind of one of those filmmakers who is big in France, but his movies don't really get much play in America. I'm wondering if this is like because, you know, the studio system isn't really creating the type of movie that that we see typically at cons anymore. Or if this is kind of the studio system starting to move away from premiering films at festivals like cons.

Because, I mean, we've seen things like Eddington is maybe the most recent example where it got kind of tepid reviews. coming out of the festival circuit and just not performing at the box office. The Joker sequel is another one. So I wonder if maybe studios are a little bit scared of premiering some of these films to that audience. Yeah, that is true. If Akkad Vermeer was not necessarily a kiss of death, it doesn't seem to be something that guarantees success. Like editing was a great example. That was, I remember being pretty hyped up before Khan as one of their big premieres last year.

And as you mentioned, the response was so tepid that when Ari Oster took the stage after the screening, the first thing he said was, I'm sorry, I guess. And then, of course, yeah, it went on to having a very underwhelming box office and was not a player in the Oscars race either. So, yeah, it definitely doesn't necessarily seem like the kind of positioning that Hollywood really prizes anymore. And that's fine. Like, that's fine. Who cares? There is definitely a lot of movies from, like, European filmmakers that have recognized. recognizable Hollywood actors or at least, you know, Western actors. And, um, and, and some of those are

probably going to end up being, uh, successful state side and being in the Oscars race as well as, as we will talk about. One bit of news about that that I wanted to quickly touch on was the, do you think the thing about Werner Herzog declining to put his film in Cannes? Okay. I did see this. Yeah. Yeah. So Hertzzeg has a new movie called Bucking Fasterd, uh, starring both. Mara sisters. And it had previously appeared on lists of movies that were going to play in Khan, but apparently it is not because it was not offered an in-competition slot.

Khan gave it an invite, but for one of the sidebars, not an actual official in-competition slot. And I guess Herzog was upset about that. So he declined to put the movie in. What's your reaction to that move by Herzog, Craig? I mean, this, like... more contemporary Herzog stuff is not something that's like really on my radar as like a must-see film. So I mean, I'm not terribly surprised that. It wasn't given to competent.

But the reaction is great. Like I love that juicy, like emotional reaction and an entitlement to be there because like obviously he's a name that carries a huge, huge amount of weight. Yeah. But you are absolutely right. He's a name that carries a lot of weight, but it's more like a legacy thing at this point. Like who's what was the last Herzlake movie? Quick, tell me. What was the last I'm not sure. I'm not sure. Right? You know, so, you know, I agree with you that

contemporary Hertz-Sig movies aren't like event movies anymore. I cannot blame Khan for not wanting to use one of the in-competition slots for a new Hertz-Sac movie. There's a bit of a precedence for this move that he did because Jim Jarmish kind of did the same thing last year.

Jim Jarmish had his new movie father, mother, sister brother, which was offered a slot out of competition, and he declined it because he wanted to be in competition. And the same thing, you know, he was upset that Khan was not going to give him an in competition slot. Like Herzog on the grounds that my films have been in competition before, you know, I should get the in competition slot. And the way Jarmish explained it at the time made sense. Like when he broke it down, he was like, from a financial perspective, you know, I'm struggling to get my movies produced.

You know, there's a huge difference between just being in con and getting to put little logo on your poster in general and being an in-competition film. It carries so much more weight to be in competition that it's something that has financial ramifications for the film, like in terms of being able to get a distributor. And being able to get box office that will allow you to pay off your investors. So that was Jarmish's argument was like, you know, I feel like I'm in a position to try to force them from my movies in competition because I'm trying to pay the bills here. I'm trying to get the money to make new movies. And that makes a big difference. It's not just like about the pride. It's about the financing.

Yeah. And I think that that is a valid point. But also once that dialogue is public, you kind of, you kind of lose the leverage. I feel like, like, now everyone knows that this wasn't deemed acceptable for being in competition. Like, it was not, you've kind of lost the prestige of being like, actually, I'm just going to, you know, premiere this at Venice or like, whatever. Yeah. Yeah. And the new Jarmist movie won, I think, did it win at Berlin.

It actually won a top festival certified prize. So it did come have with that, a bit of that imprimatur. And it was a good movie. movie a lot. But I also think that new Jarvis movies, maybe not as much as New Herzluck movies, but they are in that category where it's like a legacy filmmaker who still is a big name, but people aren't really running out to see their new movies anymore today. It's kind of feels like one of those big 1990s filmmakers who's still, who's still there, but isn't the center of attention. And that's just how time works. Yeah, totally. So I thought Craig that maybe we could make

few picks here now that the festival is officially open before these movies actually start playing and actually start getting real reactions and people bring up the stopwatches and time how long the standing ovation is yeah um why don't we make picks for the movie that we think is going to win pomdor another movie that we think is going to be a potential big oscarous player coming out of this and maybe just a third pick for fun of something that that we're really excited to see so let's start with Palm Door heavy hitters. Who would you put money on to win the Palm Door out of these in competition titles? So I would, it would be hard for me to actually put some money on this because

I think it is so. Theoretical money. Yeah, I feel like it is so up in the air. There's two storylines, like two kind of main storylines that I've been kind of tracking going into this. the first one is obviously that neon has been on a complete run and if they won the palm this year, that would be like the seventh year in a row. And they have, yeah, it's insane. And they have like seven films that are in competition right now. So it is very, very possible that they could do it. The other thing is Pedro El Moldivar being in competition for the. seventh time and not ever having one. So I am interested to see whether or not that pans out for him. But I feel like the one that kind of has the buzziest, that feels like it might, it might

fit the mold of what they're looking for is Fjord. There's just a fair amount of buzz around this going in. I think Sebastian Stan is someone whose name is like. hugely on the rise, as well as Renada Renzave. It's, I think it's just got a lot of moving, moving pieces that are going in its favor, but it's really hard, hard to say. What about you? You got to give me a pick.

Is your pick Fjord for Bob Dorwinner? Yeah. Okay. All right, right. I think that's a really good pick. We definitely already talked about Fatherland, the Pavel Pavlowski movie, which is his first movie in like eight years, I think. Christian Munju, the Romanian filmmaker who made Fjord.

This is his first movie in a little while as well. So I think those are both really good picks. I, in terms of Palm Dorwitter, I think I might go with another filmmaker who we haven't seen a new movie from in a very long time. Andres Viggenzwev. My Russian is a little rusty. Oh, nice. Yeah. Andres Viginsvev has a new movie called Minotar.

he made Leviathan notably. He is a pretty big figure in Russian cinema. He is known as a bit of a dissenter artist in Russia in terms of his depictions of Russian society are not approved by the government. And that's the kind of thing that the convent likes a lot. They like those, they like those Romanian filmmakers, those Iranian filmmakers, the ones who kind of show a version of their country, which is not sanctioned by the regime. I feel like the political climate might be really good for that kind of perspective on Russian society. And he's kind of a big name who hasn't been around for a while, another one of those. So I think that's what I'm going to pick for my Palm Dorwin, though I could easily see it being fjord. And Fatherland is definitely a big player.

How about in terms of the Oscars race, we did again mention Fatherland and Sandra Hewler in particular as being something that we could see in the Oscars. Is there another title here, Craig, that you think we could be seeing on Hollywood's biggest night, perhaps up for best picture or an acting category or something else? Yeah, I feel like it would be unwise to count out Paper Tiger. I think that Adam Driver for sure, Scarlett Johansson, are going to be within the conversation. for the acting categories that feels like it is just a given at this point. I mean, obviously, it's so early, but that would be my pick to maybe see a lot of traction at the osp. I don't really agree with that just because James Gray movies just never get Oscar nominations,

you know? Like, despite being movies that I think are great and always have really good performances in them, they never really show up on the office. So it could happen. Like on the face of it, it looks like the kind of movie that could. I just feel like for some reason, the industry doesn't care for James Gray. Doesn't like a schick or something. Maybe they find his movies not flashy enough.

I don't know. My pick for a movie that could show up with the Oscars was actually the same as your pick for Palm Door, Fjord, Kristen Munjew's movie. I could see it being in the running for both. the fact that it has those big names that, well, medium-sized names that are familiar to Western audiences, Sebastian Stan and Radada Rinsva. Radada Ritzvah is becoming more familiar to Westerns audiences. She's just in the backroom's horror movie, which is something that's going to give her a lot more

exposure in Hollywood audiences. Somebody that I think a lot of Hollywood filmmakers like her a lot. I know both Paul Thomas Anderson and. And Alexander Payne have both been filmmakers who have been on the record saying that they really want to work with her. So I think we're going to be seeing her in more Hollywood movies eventually and she's going to become more and more familiar. So the combo of Stan and Rensvay might make the movie very marketable. And though, I mean, I say that. It didn't really work for a different man where they did start together.

but I can see them both actors which Hollywood is starting to really appreciate a lot and palm door for sure is very much in play Christian Munju already has a Palm Door which he went for four months, three weeks, two days during kind of the height of the Romanian New Wave period. Sebastian Stan has been nominated for the Oscar.

Both those actors have been nominated. Sebastian Stan actually last episode we were talking about the rule changes that were made to the Oscars. one of the big one being that you can now be nominated in the same acting category twice in the same year for two different movies. We didn't mention Sebastian Stan, but he's somebody who could potentially have benefited from that two years ago when he was nominated for the apprentice because that was the same year as a different man. At the Golden Globes, he had the two nominations, but in the two categories, you know, the comedy musical and the drama category, he won for a different man, despite losing for the apprentice. So the one that he won the Golden Globe for was not the one that he got nominated for at the Oscar. As a different man, I think was definitely the better performance and a way better movie personally.

But if that rule change had happened earlier, not completely unthinkable that Sebastian Stan could have had two nominations in the same year. So that's part of my thinking, too, that he's becoming more and more appreciated in Hollywood. And that in the acting category, one or the other of those two performers could show up and Fjord could. potentially get a bit of traction and maybe muscle its way into the best picture race. And if it gets a palm door, well, that's obviously going to strike that its case a lot. Yeah, no, I totally agree.

How about something you're just looking forward to, just one of these movies that you're like, I just can't wait for me to be able to see this? Yeah, so I am actually going to step outside of the in-competition category and look at in certain regard. I think the opener, Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Myasma from Jane Schoenbren is the one that I'm maybe most looking forward to.

I'd be excited to see what Jillian Anderson could do here. I think there's a little bit of an appetite for this type of horror. And coming off of I saw the TV glow, which has like a lot of praise. I think that this is one that we could see maybe being a little bit of a dark horse and show up within the award circuit. I was going to pick the same movie. Honestly, I do not think it's going to be show up with the word circuit. I just think that Jane Shunberg's movies are too weird for that.

But I definitely very, very stoked, despite that awful, awful title, which I assumed was going to be changed before the movie came out. It doesn't look like it's going to be. But maybe there's an in-film reason to have such an overly insistent, annoying title. I love where I'll go into the World's Fair. and I saw the TV glow. So definitely excited to see the next movie from Jane Shunbrun. But since you picked it, I'll have to pick a different one.

So obviously, I'm going to go with Propeller One Way Night Coach, the directorial debut of John Travolta based on a children's book that he wrote, which is an Apple TV Plus movie and maybe the most Apple TV plus movie I've ever heard of. Yeah, that's a great. great pick. I'm glad that we were able to mention this one. So Palm Door winners do not automatically get into the best picture conversation, though that has seemed up in the case recently with Adora winning both Pomdorne and Best Picture two years ago and Parasite a few years earlier. And there were also, you know, a triangle of sadness was a nominee.

We had, it was just an accident, just missed out on being a nominee, presumably. But anatomy of a fall also just before that, it is something that's more common, but was not historically very common. So I thought maybe I'd give like a quick historical overview of kind of overlaps between Palm Door winners and Oscar nominations. And I think I should start off by giving a bit of a mea culpa. I would like to say that I made a mistake. I said in the previous episode that the first time a Palm Door winner won Best Picture was Parasite. Wrong. The first Palm Door ever gave it out was actually handed out to Marty, a movie that Craig loves, which also won Best Picture.

So that was a mistake. Parasite was actually the second and Anora was the third. So there have been three times where the Palm Door and the Oscar Best Picture have overlaps, started with Marty in 1955. for the first movie to get a Palme door. The Palm Door is not as old as Khan. They started giving it out a decade or so after the festival started. The Lost Weekend also won the Grand Prix at Con when the Grand Prix was the top prize.

But I didn't win the Palm Door because the Palm Door hadn't started yet. That's another one, which won Best Picture. So it has actually overlapped three times. In terms of nominations, it's kind of come and bursts the periods when these two have overlapped with each other. There's kind of been this historical ebb and flow of whether these two ecosystems, the Hollywood Award circuit and the European Festival Circuit have actually kind of been overlapping. Throughout the 60s, they didn't really, you know, in the 60s, Hollywood was very into giving Oscars to musicals especially and also to, you know, big expensive costume dramas.

So the movies that were winning Palm Door and the movies are winning Oscars were completely separate. In the 70s, there definitely was during the New Hollywood period, some kind of mutual admiration from the two sides. MASH the conversation and taxi driver were all movies that won Palm Door that also went on to be Best Picture nominees. And then through the 80s, they mostly diverged. And during the kind of indie film Renaissance, we started to see kind of similar to what we've been seeing now, where kind of neon and A24 to a lesser extent have been kind of a bridge between the two worlds. We definitely saw that during the indie distribution era of the 1990s, when Miramax in particular, was kind of bridging the two worlds, trying to find European Art House films that they could market heavily. state side as successful movies with Oscar nominations. So there was two years in a row where during that period,

where the Palm Door winner was the Best Picture nominee, The Piano in 1993, and then Pulp Fiction in 1994. And then also two years later, Secrets and Lies, the Mike Lee movie was also a Best Picture nominee, even not a favorite, the way the piano and Pulp Fiction, were definitely favorites going into the Oscars race, even though both of them ended up losing. Another more recent one that won the Palm Door that came probably very close to winning Best Picture was the pianist in 2001.

And since then, before the modern era, there hasn't really been ones that were close to winning Best Picture, though Tree of Life and Amor in 2011 and 2013 were both PalmDar winners that at least made it onto the nominations list for Best Picture. Interesting. I'm interested to know whether you probably don't have this handy, but the, the Grand Prix has a similar track record. Yeah, I don't have that handy. But, yeah, Khan Awards are weird. Like, they can make up new rules every year, which they do sometimes. You know, they'll just do like a special jury prize. And Grand Prix has been given to multiple films in the same year in the past.

Like, it's the strictures of the awards at Khan are like very open to interpretation. The jury has a lot of leads. way to just award however they choose. So I think that's why people tend to gravitate around the palm door because it's kind of the most structured. Yeah, yeah, the most like one top award and that's it. And then and then between jury prize, Grand Prix, you know, directors award, special jury prize, you know, these other things get a little squishy and are like some years

are used differently than other years. So it's not like, I feel like it's not a very rigorous metric. Anything else about, anything else about Khan that you think might be something to look for going forward here? No, it's, I mean, it's still early. I think we'll have to do another episode after this all wraps and give our take on what has happened and respond to, you know, any news. And you know what? Maybe we should do one more pick. And this is out of left field.

What do you think is going to have the longest standing over? You know what? I like that question. So I feel like, so there's a lot of love for the Iranian filmmakers. And Ascar Faradhi has a French language movie this year, parallel tales. I feel like that could be a contender. It has a lot of like big. names in terms of French actors like Isabel Uber in it.

And I think Ascar Faradhi is a filmmaker who just has a lot of love in the French film community right now. And with all the stuff that's been going on in Iran, there's been a big push, I think, in France especially, which really supports the Iranian dissident filmmakers a lot. There's been a big push to show them, like, lots of love and support at the Cesar last year. There was a huge standing ovation for Iranian filmmakers. So for that reason, I could see parallel tales being the one that gets that kind of massive audience support, even though I don't expect it to actually win big. Yeah, I think my expectation was actually going to be Minotaur.

And you touched on a lot of the reasons why you thought it would be maybe a hit with the jury. I think that that is going to help it within the audience reaction category as well. But yeah, interested to see what happens there at least. Yeah, yeah. So is there anything else in the Oscars race or the awards race in general that you've been keeping tabs on lately? So there's a little bit. Obviously, Con's is the big news right now. But we are seeing some campaigns kind of heat up a little bit. mostly like promotional campaigns but I think in the case of Tom Cruise's campaign for lead actor in Daker it's already it's already started we are doing a little bit of a whitewashing of his involvement with Scientology and there was a news article coming

that came out I think it was I can't remember what what outlet had it but talking about a reunion between him and Nicole Kidman which obviously was a very like contentious divorce and there's a lot of volatility there. And so to see him undergoing a little bit of a like a rebranding and trying to show him as like non-problematic, you know, curtail any of the, any of the like attack vectors that another studio might have on his candidacy for being a lead actor, I think that that is pretty interesting to see us kind of hit the ground there, trying to soften him a little bit. So it feels like there is already the machinery starting to get going around Tom Cruise.

Another one is surrounding The Odyssey. We saw Christopher Nolan had a Time magazine cover. Yeah, big interview. Yeah. So I think that that is mostly movie marketing, but it was an obnoxious cover, in my opinion. I didn't bother reading the interview, but I'm interested to see what happens with this campaign and whether it's going to be very like Christopher Nolan forward

as opposed to something like Oppenheimer where, like yes, Christopher Nolan was present on the campaign, but it was really about that film. I am feeling like the dialogue around The Odyssey is shifting a little bit more to be about Christopher Nolan as a director. That's just like my gut feeling. It feels like he's very prominent here. And I wonder what that says about the strength of this film.

I definitely expect a big push for The Odyssey, if only because of all the actors involved in it. One of the things that people often say in the industry is that the forces behind films that get a big Oscar push is often the actors. It's often the actors behind the scenes who are really actually. asking for a movie to be positioned as an Oscars happyhead. You already looked at the cast in The Odyssey, and you've got a lot of people who haven't really been in the Oscars race yet, but are kind of at that prominence where you would expect them to be, people like Robert Patterson's and if you really want to stretch Tom Holland.

But, you know, Matt Damon, as somebody who's, as we've discussed before, wears that mantle of it's his time really well. So I think with that kind of cast especially, we might see a lot of pressure on Warner Brothers to really push it really hard. It is Warner Brothers, right? I think it's Warner Brothers, yeah, like Oppenheimer. And so that should be a big campaign. It's normal that it would be Nolan heavy. I think that that's the focus of it.

I think it's going to be really interesting to see how it plays out. Like it's definitely, I think Nolan is already ruffling feathers just with what's come out already in terms of what you would expect the audience for like an audience for an Odyssey movie to be. I haven't read the interview. I've seen clips of it. He seems to be forced to address a lot of the historical accuracy things, which is something that a lot of people have been jumping on ever since footage started coming out being like, you know, those costumes don't make sense. it's not historically accurate. That kind of like nerd reaction is what you would expect from this kind of movie. And I wonder how much that stuff is going to be central to the conversation around the movie once it comes out.

And if it becomes kind of a Lord of the Rings thing where it's like a very like a very nerd focused kind of. a kind of dialogue around the movie or if it is going to be something that ends up being focused around performances and filmmaking rather than like the costumes that are worn

and the fidelity to the text I feel like it'll be a test to whether Oppenheimer was kind of a one-off in terms of everybody embracing it both at the box office and at the Oscars or whether that will go down

as kind of the high point of popularity in Nolan's career and this will be a step back or if this is an even higher peak it's going to be really interesting to see how the movies received both at the box office and in the awards circuit. I mean, early, early, early, early, early,

early on right now for this race. But these two movies, Digger and the Odyssey feel like they are going to be, like the main two heavy hitters here. I think looking at who their leading man is in this like narrative, not necessarily in the film, but within the narrative of the marketing of these movies, within awards race, we see Tom Cruise and Christopher Nolan and that's like two completely different different categories. And on paper, it feels like Odyssey should have the better foundation in my opinion.

Like just the fact that this is. based on material that everyone knows. It's got a huge cast that everyone knows. It's got like maybe the most loved director amongst the cinephile community. But at the same time, I'm hearing a lot of criticisms about this movie before it is released. And on the other side of things like Digger, it just had some footage shown at CinemaCon.

Everyone is raving about this footage, talking about Tom Cruise's performance as being like very, risk-taking and that it's visually just really breathtaking. And so I kind of feel like the early momentum is on Digger's side. Yeah, we'll see. I'm also curious why I think it's assumed that the movie is completely wrapped and post-production is finished and they're just waiting for the right moment to release it, presumably to position it for the Oscars. But I wonder if they think that like putting it in Venice will be like an easier reception than putting it. it and con would be.

And that's, I don't think they've announced where it's being released, but they've said in the fall. So I think a Venice film festival release is probably most likely at this point. And Venice tends to be a much, a much more welcoming environment,

I think. And that's where films often have those like 12 minutes standing ovation. Or those bullshit headlines that often come out in those movies that had a 12 minute standing ovation, sometimes go into general release. And people are like, oh, that kind of sucks, actually.

I agree that Digger has done a good job so far of pre-release positioning itself as a movie that everybody should be hyped about. I mean, this is the poster alone was really cool. Yeah. But I'm wondering how much people are actually going to like it when we do really see it. I personally like Alejandro Gonzalez in the hour too. I know a lot of people in the film world have really soured on him. I kind of like his stuff. But I definitely agree that there is a good synergy.

between the Tom Cruise Renaissance that we've seen over the past few years and the timing of this release in terms of him getting real buzz. Of course, if he gets real buzz, like you mentioned, the people are going to start trying to bring back the narratives that were prevalent around him 20 years ago when it was all about, you know, Scientology and him being a weirdo. I don't know how much that'll work today. I think people just love rallying around him as kind of the banner carrier of, you know, the theatrical cinematic experience and real cinema and we'll see you at the movies and all that. That that's what Hollywood wants to promote as Tom Cruise. Yeah, got to be really interesting to see how that plays what it does come out. he he's someone that i think is has gotten a lot of credit for like saving cinema with with top gun maverick and so he is able to put butts in the seats we talked about how like timothy shallame is one of the only people that is able to put butts in seats based on his name

but tom cruise is another person that's able to do that and i wonder if we see you know because we don't know what festival this is going to premiere at if it even gets a festival premiere i mean i think obviously this is the type of movie that will get a festival premiere, but, you know, Marty Supreme kind of felt like it would get a festival premiere as well. And they didn't really do that. I mean, it was at New York Film Festival, but that's obviously a lot, one of the more quiet places that that they could have premiered this film. And instead used Timothy Shalame in order to sell this movie. And they didn't risk it getting like tepid reviews. views from critics are people like really like diving into it and and undermining its ability

to be sold on the back of Timmy. And I feel like that's actually a model that could work really well for Digger as well. Just keep it secretive. They're doing a great job of like getting the hype around it. They might just forego that that festival release and, you know, let it win at the box. Yeah. Yeah. could be. Another title I'm wondering if is on your radar is the social reckoning, the sequel to the social network.

Aaron Sorkin is writing and directing this time. He wrote the original script, which was a David Fincher movie. I wish that Fincher was directing missing. It would give you more confidence. I think if Fincher was directing the social reckoning. But yeah, weird kind of musical chairs between actors and directors or the Tarantino script is being directed by by Fincher, who's not directing the social network too, which is being directed by its writer, Aaron Sorkin. I wonder if this is something that's on your radar. Jeremy Strong is going to be playing Mark Zuckerberg this time. And maybe more interestingly, Mikey Madison has the female lead. We haven't really seen Mikey Madison since she won the Oscar for Onora. So it's always interesting to see what the next step is going to be for a newly minted best actors winner, especially one who kind of, who was very young and didn't have much of a resume going into it.

It often, new best actress winners don't have success immediately after. So I'm interested to see what Mikey Madison strategy is going forward. I think this is an interesting first step. I mean, it was widely reported that she was offered a Marvel role and she turned it down, which is probably wise. Maybe Brie Larson should have done that after she went for room

because her career isn't exactly getting here on any Oscar stages lately. So I think this is an interesting next step from Mikey Madison. I think you do have to kind of choose your next step wisely when you get that trophy for our first time. Do you think that this is a movie that we should be watching for the Oscars or not at all? It feels like one of those movies is going to be in screenplay and that's about it. may be a nomination for Jeremy Strong. He, I mean, that, that's actually probably fairly likely that we see him in the best actor. And yeah, so I, I don't think that this is really going to be a best picture film.

I mean, I don't have a lot of hope for it. I think depending on the content, it could be timely. But I think that there are other films that are tackling this idea of like the evils of of tech. I don't, it feels like it's going to be a bit on the nose. I think that people are going to be disappointed that it's a Fincher film.

And I'm not, I'm not super confident in it. Having said that, I'm pretty sure a Aaron Sarkin directed movie has been a Best Picture nominee more recently than a David Fincher film. The trial of the Chicago 7, which Sarkin wrote and directed,

was a best picture nominee, despite being a bad movie. Fincher hasn't had a best picture nominee in a while. So that might not be as much as a handicap as you think it is. I can see this as a player. I'm not sure it's a player for Best Picture, but I can definitely see both Mikey Madison and Jeremy Strong being contenders in their respective races. I think, like, I know what a David Fincher film feels like.

Like, I know it. I can conjure it up. You can say, you could put, like, an AI prompt, like, David Fincher directs, like, whatever, and get, like, a very clear image. But you can't do the same with Aaron Sorgen. You can do that with his screenplays for sure, obviously. Yeah. Yeah, think.

I just like, I don't know. I don't think that he has the full. Yeah, I agree with you. But I don't think that necessarily means that it's not going to be best picture nominee material. Well, yeah, we'll see. I feel like I feel like we might get three non-English language films within the best picture conversation this year, like, are nominated. I think that is entirely possible, which, given that there's a lot of potential heavy

hitters within, like, American films, I don't know that there's, there's room for the social reckoning, but it could be. You're right. I'm not counting it out. Yeah. And that is an interesting thing to track, too. Is this going to be the year where we got three foreign language films last year we were definitely very close we had two with sentimental value in the secret agent and if there had been you know 50 nominees instead of 10 i think uh definitely both it was just an accident and sarat would have made it in there so i think last year we were definitely very close to having three we two has kind of become the new standard over the past few years and i think uh this might be the year where we see three breakthrough where the where the best picture race continues to become more and

more international which to be clear i think is a very good thing Totally. All right. Anything else you're watching before we wrap this up? Any other storylines that you think we haven't touched on yet? No. What I'm watching is I'm going to go back and watch our original coverage of the cons when competition lineup was announced.

And that link will be in the show notes wherever you're watching this. So check that out. You can get more of our thoughts on what we might see. Yep. For sure. And if you're just interested in the movies, you'll want to skip forward to the end of that because the rest is all about. summer house and

I'll clip it. I will clip just the cons so that you don't have to learn about skimanda. All right. So as he said, we'll be back after these films have actually screamed and the reactions are coming out and we'll be talking about how we feel about the different con

con premieres once people have had a chance to applaud them and possibly after the awards I've been giving out. We'll see and we'll update you on any other storylines relating to the Oscars race with some little sidebars on Hollywood history, as we like to do on Oscars Outsider. Craig, it's been fun.

Anything you want to leave our audience with? Hit the like and subscribe button and leave us a review. If you enjoyed this conversation, other than that, I'm out. Nice. My name is Dylan Ferguson. You can find some of my writings about film on Substack. If that interests you, it's free. And we'll see you next time on Oscars Outsider.