Oscars Outsider - Who Wins Cannes? Our Palme d’Or Predictions

Episode Date: May 22, 2026

Cannes is almost over, which means it is time to make our Palme d’Or predictions.In this episode, we break down the Cannes competition, make our picks for who we think could win the Palme d’Or, and talk through which films might carry momentum into the Oscar race. We get into the strange energy of this year’s festival, the movies that seem built for jury attention, the ones that could break out later, and whether Cannes still feels like the launchpad it used to be.Along the way, we also talk John Travolta’s honorary Palme d’Or, Paul Schrader’s Cannes grumpiness, Jacob Elordi’s jury absence, and the general chaos of trying to read festival buzz from afar. The episode sets up the Palme prediction segment directly in the intro, so this title and thumbnail are aligned with what the show actually promises.Chapters:0:00 Intro0:42 John Travolta's honorary Palme d'Or & Paul Schrader4:24 Setting the stage: Cannes wraps up5:06 Top storylines & the Screen jury grid (Fatherland, Minotaur)9:43 Standing ovations & the clapping arms race12:08 Polarizing films & Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)14:01 Where's Hollywood? Do the studios still need Cannes?20:14 The Bolloré / Canal D scandal22:29 A quiet market & the subtitle problem24:05 Big deals: A24 bidding war & Park Chan-wook's western26:45 Hollywood no-shows: Johansson & Adam Driver27:42 The anti-AI backlash (Soderbergh, del Toro, Radu Jude)32:33 Hope by Na Hong-jin34:59 Jury dynamics & Palme d'Or predictions38:26 Parallel Tales (Asghar Farhadi) flops40:34 Was this a disappointing Cannes?43:04 Golden Globes expands its voting body45:13 Nolan's Odyssey & the casting backlash47:16 Oscar eligibility & the diversity-rule conspiracy56:05 The Daniels cast Matt Damon59:03 Wrap-up & sign-off

Um, let's make Palm Door brick picks, should we? Yeah, let's do it. Yeah, let's go. So welcome back to Oscars outsider, your show about the awards race in Hollywood history. We are continuing our con coverage. We're going to keep kicking that con down the road. I'm Dylan. With me is Craig.

We're going to talk about all things con. We're going to give you our Palm Door predictions. And maybe talk about some other stuff about the Hollywood Awards race too. Craig, how's it going? It's going good. Yeah, it's been exciting kind of watching from afar what's been going on to Kant, so excited to dive in. Yeah. Anybody

who's watching on YouTube, the video version, we'll see that I'm taking sartorial inspiration from Il Maestro, Jonathan Travolta, who had a triumphant premiere of his Apple TV Plus Kids movie based on a book he wrote in the 90s

and was given an honorary Palm d'Aubour so congratulations to john chivalto one of our finest one of our finest lubidaries honestly i thought it was just legendary shit where he just showed up on the red carpet wearing a beret uh dressed like uh like picasso or something did you see the interview with him about it i didn't no okay so he was he was talking about how he was looking at for inspiration for his his look in all these old Hollywood directors and he's basically like cosplaying as a director, which I love. It's great. It's legendary. So cool. He's in character. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You weren't like scandalized by this, were you? Because I know there are some people, notably like Paul Schrader who, you know,

if you know, Paul Schrader's Facebook page is amazing. And like, Paul Schrader's feed and maybe marketplace are like the two reasons to have Facebook today. And he called it like an utter embarrassment that Travolta was not only in con, but that he was given an honorary palm door. Do you think he has a point there? Okay. So I want to talk about Paul Schrader a little bit. I think he's just a little bit grumpy because his AI girlfriend broke up with him.

I saw that. I saw that. Yeah. I think we need to show respect for him during this difficult time, Craig. do you think it's embarrassing though that that Travolta is given an honorary bomb door or not at all no I'm like I'm fine with it like who really gives a shit other than than Paul Trader I guess yeah I guess I mean the argument is that there have been very few honorary palm doors that have been given out they've only started doing that really in the

last 25 years I think the first one was 1999 where they gave it to Ingmar Bergman and like the list of the few Hollywood stars you have one is like, you know, like Robert De Niro, Jane Fonda, like kind of big legends. So yeah, Travolta does kind of stick out there. But honestly,

I think the Travolta Pomdor is less embarrassing than the Peter Jackson honorary pop door. I don't know. I feel like maybe you don't agree with me on this, but I feel like having Peter Jackson get an honorary pop door and have him show up on the stage and be like, yeah, AI is an interesting tool that filmmakers could use is kind of

Yeah, that's more of an embarrassing. That totally sucks. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. Yeah, I don't think that John Travolta is like that embarrassing of an honorary award recipient. I mean, like, he had such a run during his heyday and then a really huge resurgence. And I don't know, he definitely made his mark on Hollywood. So I'm fine with it.

Yeah. Yeah, in the Travolta, like, reputation scheme of things, Pulp Fiction is doing a lot of heavy lifting, because if it wasn't for that, he would be seen as, like, I don't know, somebody like the Josh Hartman of his day or not even that, like Ryan Philippe or something. You know, like somebody who has kind of like a matinee idol who briefly seemed like they were kind of going to be a big movie star wearing a couple big titles in their day and then just sort of disappeared. the brief career resurgence that Tarantino engineered for him gives us reputation a huge shine-up. But anyways, enough about Trivolta. We're not going to talk about that for an entire hour, I assure you. So we are recording this episode on Thursday, the 21st of May. Khan is about to wrap up here.

Almost all the films have been shown. We're just a couple days away from the awards being announced. So we're going to try to get our predictions out before that. happens. So we did give some kind of preliminary Palm Door predictions a week ago before the films have shown. And now almost all of the in-competition titles have been screened to the critics. So we do have reactions to go on. Craig, what are some of the storylines that you've been watching before we get into predictions? So what do you think we need to talk about here of what's come out over this past week? You know, it's interesting. I think that we talked a lot about

Fatherland in our preview. And that is one that has been really, I think one of the highlights, at least from what I've seen, people are really gravitating towards that. At least if you saw the screen jury, that was the one that was kind of leading. And I think, you know, Sandra Hewler is definitely carrying a lot of weight. You correctly, I think, tapped Minotaur as another one that is going to be a potential player here. So yeah, I'm happy to start wherever

you want to start. So you tapped on the screen jury grid there, which I think is a good place to start when we're talking about which titles have had a rapturous reception and which ones have kind of bombed. For people who don't know, Screen Magazine, the British film magazine has since the 80s made it kind of a tradition

that they run a grid on the back page of their print magazine, which is now online, of course, where they have a list of handpicked international critics. This year, it's 12, who each assign each in-competition movie, they see a star rating between one and four. And traditionally people in con, people in the industry and other critics kind of refer to that because since it comes out every day as a quick handy guide

of which titles the critics are liking, which titles the critics aren't liking. So, you know what, why don't we just look at that a second because I actually have this open here. And you mentioned that Fatherland had a good reception. So the average score, so between one and four is what the critics get as options. The average score for Fatherland, Pavl Pavlovakovsky's German Cold War movie is 3.3 right now, which does make it the highest average score on the grid currently.

and Andrew Andres Vignetsviz, I'm going to have to get used to saying that Russian name. His movie Minotar is the second highest at 3.2, so right behind it. So that's pretty interesting. One of the things that's interesting is if you actually look at the grid, Fatherland is very consistent. Everybody gave it either three or four stars.

Yeah. Minotar has a few two stars scattered in there, but otherwise also it looks very strong. Are you looking at this right now, Craig? Yeah, I've got it up right now. You've got it up. Okay. What's maybe most surprising for you, like just looking at those average scores there?

So just looking at the average score, I think Coriata being at like a 1.3 is a little bit surprising for me. It's the worst. It's the worst score on the grid. Yeah. Yeah. That is like maybe the biggest score or the biggest surprise for me. Yeah. I know you had high hopes for that movie.

And I'll surely see it too. I've liked a lot of curated movies in the past, but they definitely, the critics at least did not seem to like that one at all. The only other one that is in the three-plus territory is another Japanese movie, Uruiske, Hamaguchi's latest all of a sudden, which is partially in French language. And that was generally very well-received, it sounds like. And that's sitting at 3.1 as an average score. So it also, I think, had one of the biggest standing ovations, too, which is another kind of silly way that people like to track these things.

Also, all of a sudden was, it was given a 10-minute standing ovation according to deadline. But deadline tends to be a lot more generous than other outlets when they report these standing ovations, seven minutes plus according. Oh, no, sorry, deadline gave it a lot. to all of a sudden. Deadline gave 11 minutes to all of a sudden and Variety said it was seven minutes. That I think that gulf is common. Like often deadline will give like 20 to 30 percent higher counts than a variety does. But I think that works out to like the average that's highest in terms of standing ovations of all these movies here for what it's worth. I would really like to see like a correlation between the standing ovation time and, you know, performance at the Oscars or performance at the box office because like it's, it's silly and that's why I really like it.

Because also these times, that's like a fucking long time to be clapping, like standing there like an idiot just clapping away while Rami Malick is like crying and like sucking on his sour patch kid. in. Con is not the worst for that. I think Venice has gotten the worse in terms of performative, competitive, static ovations. Like, when Venice,

like the critics are reporting the static ovations, you'll often see like 15 minutes, 17 minutes, like 18 minutes. Like, it's insane. Like, it's just become a performance art for them to,

like, just stand and clap for as long as they can. It's completely ridiculous. Movies will, will, will make handlines with like an 18-minute standing ovation in Venice and it comes out and it's something totally mid two and a half star movie. So I love this stuff obviously. It's really funny.

I love to predict like a future where we've got studios that are trying to game this and making sure they're distributing their passes to people that pass a certain physical fitness test for being able to like sustain clapping while standing. At Venice anyways, I would not at all be surprised if people are already like studios are like planting clapers. or like, you know, the executives that get into the screenings are being giving strict instructions. Do your wrist exercises. Before a 17-minute threshold. We will be timing you. You will be fired otherwise. Yeah.

So, okay, one more thing about the static ovation that they find funny. One of the films that had the biggest, apparently, we got an average 9.5 static ovation for her. private hell, which is not in competition, but that's the new Nicholas Wending Gereffen movie. Nicholas Vending Greffen is the guy most famous for making Drive, who hasn't had an actual movie in a long time. And I find that really funny because I've seen two different critics describe the film as unwatchable, that exact word. So obviously I'm super stoked to see, to see Refins' unwatchable slash 10-minute standing

ovation worthy, surreal horror movie. it's interesting because it does seem like there's very polarizing reviews coming out about a lot of these these films which is fun yeah totally i think it's it feels like it's a more polarizing slate than we've had in past years or maybe that's just recency bias but like things like the man i love has like a bunch of threes and then a bunch of ones then a couple twos um paper tiger is another one that has like a bunch of fours threes with a couple ones and twos. But I don't know if anyone's more chaotic than Fyard, though, the Christian Munjoo movie.

Yeah. Fjord has got ones and fours all over the place. Like, people are really split on the Christian Munchy's Fjord, which is one that we both said that we're watching as a potential contender. And one which I said could be a movie that I could see being in the Oscars race as well. That seems to be getting reactions all over the board. Yeah, I mean, the polarizing reaction for Fjord, it kind of makes me think that it's dead in the water in terms of Oscar, the Oscar race, at least within the best

picture conversation. But who knows? Like, I mean, it's still so early. Yeah. And I don't know if that's, that's not necessarily a bad thing. Like, that could mean that it's just a much more interesting movie that that's really provoking people a lot more. And I've seen some people compare it to anatomy of a fall in terms of being both kind of like a very like bourgeois. liberal movie, but also one that kind of pokes the bear a lot and get strong reactions out of its audience. Definitely very interested to see the film.

But yeah, whether or not it could actually be a kind of Oscars player is very much an open question at this point, as is the question of whether or not it's going to figure into the awards at Cannes. But right now it doesn't feel like it's going to be one of the the Palm Door front runners. Any other storylines you're watching here out of

Cannes before we get into our Palm Door predictions? So out of cons, I think the, we talked a lot about the absence of Hollywood. There was a variety article that came out this week since we last recorded that kind of touched on that. It was a lot of what we had talked about on our last episode. So go back and listen to that. But it was interesting to hear like actual execs on record being like, yeah,

studios are just pumping all their money into the opening weekend. They're afraid of the risk, which is another thing that we kind of highlighted. and I think Deadline also did a little bit of a piece talking about the new Star Wars movie and how Disney said there was no way that it was going to put that at cons or another festival just because it got burnt by Dial of Destiny and Solo getting, you know, middling reviews or bad reviews. And so I think it's interesting that we do have people actually calling out the fear that studio have about the festival circuit. And I'm interested to see what, if anything, the festivals can do in order to alleviate that. I mean, we've talked about it before,

but my opinion is basically like Khan doesn't need big studio films. I feel like it's a silly side show, a distraction. I think this is, I get why this is a big storyline in like variety, sure, and like Vanity Fair, like says coverage is all about like, oh, there aren't enough big stars, because that's what that venue covers. That's what they're interested in. It's mostly a thing that American outlets who want to cover, you know, red carpet glitz and drama are interested in. I like red carpet glitz and drama, but there are so many other places for that to happen. We have so many dates on the calendar that have red carpet glitz and drama. I don't feel like Khan needs that. And I feel like most people in the Europe,

European film world, or a lot of them anyways, feel the same way. Yes, it's good for publicity. It's definitely good for publicity to have Tom Cruise show up to promote his new movie, you know, to have the big stars showing up for a premiere for big Hollywood title. Does the ecosystem that they're supposed to be serving really benefit from that, though, which is like the European artistic community? I'm not sure. So I don't see this as a problem. It does, that's actually one thing where that irks me a little bit about the John Travolta stuff because it does almost feel like a bit of a desperation on the part of Khan to have a kind of big celebrity moment. It feels like they're kind of reaching for it and I do not want to see Khan be doing that because it feels like stooping. But but sure, yeah, that is that's part of it too, right? It is a tradition at Con like you have a couple Hollywood stars on the jury usually. You know, you have a couple Hollywood stars show up for if not for a movie, then maybe. lately often to receive an honorary palm. That's part of it too.

And you can't extract that from the rest of the festival's history. But sure, yeah, it's hard to ignore that this year Hollywood seems less interested in it. It's not just the studios. I think the stars too. Like notably Jacob Allorty was invited to be on the jury this year. And he didn't go. He said he couldn't go because he had a broken foot. A paparazzi just got pictures of him.

a couple days ago, like jet skiing in Hawaii with Kendall Jenner. Doesn't seem like that broken foot is stopping him from doing anything other than sitting out of jury in the south of France. So there might be kind of a growing opinion among some Hollywood people, perhaps some younger Hollywood people, especially like that towering Bogan, that the con isn't something that's worth their time, that it isn't worth. a while. You know, I think that that's sad, to be honest.

Like, I mean, this year, it's just the neon show. And I feel like having at least Hollywood pay a little bit of respect to more interesting, international artistic efforts. I think it's important for, you know, keeping Hollywood from going just, the route of big blockbusters that are based on comic books or whatever like intellectual property the studio has access to or like super small to mid-size direct to streaming films that people can watch while scrolling on their phone. So yeah, I think that's I think that's the best argument for it is the like the cross-pollination argument like that the Hollywood artistic ecosystem

benefits from being brought into close contact with the European artistic ecosystem so that they can cross-pollinate with each other and share ideas and talent. Like we've talked a lot about Sandra Hewler having a potentially a big breakout year in Hollywood. Would that have happened without anatomy of a fall? Right. Getting on, like she was a huge star in Europe for years. Huge star might be putting a bit too of a fine point on it.

But she was a very popular actor who was considered one of the best actors in Europe for a long time without anybody in Hollywood taking notice until she appeared in a movie which won the Palm Door and then ended up being a Best Picture nominee. And I don't think we would see her in stuff like Project Hail Mary if it wasn't for anatomy of a fall. So that's an example of that kind of cross-pollination effect where like really good European talent might cross over to Hollywood because Khan has brought them to the attention of Hollywood. Yeah. I mean if you if you if you read like what the European press is concerned about in con there is a lot of discourse about you know the future of the industry and stuff but it's not in the hollywood sense like the french

press is really um you know i do pay attention to what the french press is saying about con it is a french film festival in case in case we forget it right what what they're talking about really has a lot to do with like a political scandals that are related to to the con film festival There's specifically an ongoing question of a French billionaire named Vincent Bolleret, who is becoming very influential in the French film world as the number one shareholder in Canal Plus, whose Canal Studios is the actually the biggest financier of film in Europe and is set to become an even more important player in French film because they're now buying a big. French film company, bullet points of the scandal because maybe a lot of people listening don't care, but it's like, but basically a lot of the French stars are, uh, are concerned about this very right wing billionaire who has a very right wing cultural agenda, becoming an extremely, uh, important figure in the French film world. And the, uh, the president of Cannell Plus, this big French

film production company said that he was going to blacklist 600 artists who signed a letter denouncing Bollary so these are like these political issues about like the future of film

and the independence of the industry are our front and center in terms of what they're talking about in Europe surrounding the festival so there's such a the future of the industry is definitely in play in both cases, but there's a huge gulf between how the American critics are discussing what's going out and how the European critics are discussing what's going out of Cod. And I just find that interesting.

Like it is, you make a good argument for why the like presence of Hollywood is an important thing in terms of influencing the quality of Hollywood films and all that. but it's more of like an existential issue that people in Europe are worrying about in terms of how their films are going to get financed. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know how to wrap up that thought or that I say. I think that's just an interesting thing. Yeah, I think my other kind of concern isn't just like the presence of like celebrities or like films there. It seems like the market was also just a little less active from.

from the Western American perspective. Like obviously neon has rights to a ton of things, but it just seemed like there was not a whole lot of activity like buying films this year, which is interesting. And I'm worried that this has something to do with, you know, the studios or the distributors not wanting to buy a film that someone is going to have to read subtitles for because everyone is watching films on the streaming platforms while scrolling on their phone and not wanting to look up to read. I don't know how much of an issue that is because I think subtitles have become commonplace even in English language movies.

Now, I know so many young people who watch all their movies with subtitles, even native English speakers watching these movies with subtitles because they're like, oh, you can't hear it right anyways. I don't think that, I mean, exposing Americans to foreign film is always, kind of an issue, but I feel like lately it's been kind of on a good track that foreign films in America have been kind of a healthier and healthier thing. I think you're absolutely right that the market has been very quiet. I think the number one reason for that is that the vast majority of all the buzzy titles have gone into con with distribution deals already in place. The days of kind of festivals being treated as feeding frenzies where all the distribution companies try to outbid each other to get these titles

is mostly a thing of the past, I think, at this point, that kind of 90s-era stereotype of everybody trying to claim the title that gets the biggest reaction from the crowd. The industry doesn't work that way that much anymore, and almost all of these titles have their packages ready to go. A lot of them, like you say, is neon is already ready to distribute them or maybe movie or somebody else, which is it to say there has been no activity of that sort.

The big exception, that would be Club Kid, the movie by Jordan Firstman, which that movie scored a huge $17 million pickup from A24, which was the result of a bidding war. There was a bidding war between A24, and I believe Mooby and Focus and Netflix was in there. So that was like an old school kind of bidding war between the different distributors. We did get that, but you're right. an extremely rare thing at this con. We haven't really seen that kind of stuff yet. Though one big business deal that did get sealed that I find interesting is that

Chanwick Park, who is jury president, picked up financing for the Western that he's planning to make. So happy about that. Not a film acquisition, but, you know, an acquisition of production rights,

which is pretty exciting for me anyways. I love the idea of a Chadwick Park Western. So good on him. What other storylines do you think are worth following here? For Khan, I think that was kind of it for what I saw. Yeah, I'm interested in the Paper Tiger story. I think like, because I think Neon bought this during the festival. Is this one of the festival acquisitions or was it right before?

Anyway, yeah, I feel it goes in place before the movie premiered, but I'm not sure about them. Yeah, I'm interested to see what happens with this one because this was one that I picked as maybe a player in the Oscars. And this did have some divided critics on the grid. But overall, I think it was positive. It's got like a 2.8 on the grid. And there was some fours and a lot of threes there. So I think that I'm not ready to count this one out. I think it's going to be exciting to watch.

Okay. And speaking of Hollywood not really showing up for Khan, a lot of people's eyebrows were raised when not only did Scarlett Johans didn't not show up to Khan because apparently she's busy filming another exorcist reboot in New York. But James Gray tried to FaceTime her during the standing ovation after the film and got left on red. That's kind of funny. And Adam Driver left the premiere, like, mid, mid film, I think. Oh, did he?

Okay. I know he was a little peeved because Lena Dunham's by autobiography just came out recently. And he was getting grilled about some questions about his behavior on the set of girls to which he responded. And I kind of like this. Well, you just have to wait for my autobiography. we um we um is it worth touching on the anti-a-i sentiment or is that stuff just too obvious to even to even bother digging into uh no you know what that's a new film with yeah out of competition that that uses some uses an ai sequence uh a john lennon yoko on a movie uh documentary film

um i think it's more than just one one one sequence that was used. I heard that it's like heavily used within this film, which is like I'm not surprised that audiences hated this. I think Guillermo del Toro said fuck AI in a Q&A after, not after this film, but people are reading that as a response to Sotaberg. I'm, I'm not surprised. This is a movie that I think was partially funded by meta. So I think it's, oh, I didn't know that. that's a bad thing. Yeah, yeah, I think it's partially funded by meta. I mean, Soderberg, it's not surprising. Like, it's kind of like the least surprising guy that would use this or one of the least surprising guys. I think Darren Aronofsky is another one that has mentioned that he's interested in like the potential for, for AI and has done some AI stuff. So it's not surprising that Sotabberg has done it. He's like shot films on iPhones and like just that sort of like tech, hoary type activity. So I'm not surprised to see it from him.

I'm enthusiastic about the response that the audience has had and that the industry seems to be having towards this. Yeah, but definitely, definitely notable that he was caught off guard by this response, which is weird. That's the only thing that that is surprising to me is that he seems surprised, you know? Yeah. It was kind of the same thing when Rado Jude had his Dracula movie last year. which he used AI in it.

And he was complaining to the press after he's like, oh, all anything interviewers ever want to ask me about is AI. Everybody just wants to talk about the AI use. Like, what the hell? And Soderberg has also made quotes where he's like, you know, people only want to ask me about the AI, they only want to criticize me about the AI and not talk about the other parts of the film. And my reaction is, what did you expect?

Like, how could you not see that coming? Like, obviously people feel very, very strongly about that, especially in the filmmaking community, there is a ton of anti-AI sentiment. And how are you not aware of that? Like, how could you not expect that? That's all everybody was going to talk about. Of course it is. Like the, like you mentioned, Guillermo del Toro made got maybe the biggest stagivation of Khan simply by picking up a microphone in saying, fuck AI. That's all it takes. Like, that's, like, how can you not read that room? Yeah, I don't know. So, yeah, I'm not surprised by anything about this story. I don't want to belabor it. I'm just surprised that guys like Soderberg and

Jude somehow, maybe they're just playing dumb, but they seemed to act as if they were caught off guard by all this, all this anti-AIA sentiment. Of course, how could you, you must know what's out there. Like, you live in this community. So I didn't know that Rado Jude was surprised by the reaction to AI. Like, it feels like something that he would use kind of pointedly and, you know, like taking, taking a shot, whereas Soderberg feels like honest and naked and just like yucky to me. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I do like I like some of what Sotabberg has done. He's done a lot of great films.

Oh yeah. Also this totally tracks with his character and I don't like this for him. Oh yeah. No, I agree totally. I like Soderberg. I like a lot of his films. He is the kind of of guy who likes to kind of push out on the margins of like um of a film tech and a low budget filmmaking and stuff like that so it interacts like you say with the kind of things that he you tend to explore it sucks uh but i'm not surprised and it's not going to make me like uh you know burn my copy of sex lies and videotapes just because he's he's making some dumb choices and uh near as he nears the twilight of his career um same thing with jude i'm not going to like get angry with him for that.

Who by the way has a movie at Cannes, which sounds really good. He has a diary of a chamber made a film in the French language that that is playing out of competition, but sounds like a really good movie that I'm excited to see. Yeah, I still haven't seen Dracula. I'm really wanting to watch that, but I've never found the time. Yeah, I haven't seen it yet either. That's also another one of those movies that has been called by multiple people unwatchable. And that just, you know, makes me want to see it more.

Yeah. You know what? Okay, I do want to get into our Palm Door predictions. Before I do, I feel like there's one movie that we haven't touched on that is maybe something

that's kind of been making waves here. And that's the Korean movie Hope by Nahangjin. Nahangjin's first movie in like 10 years since the Whaling, which is a very culty horror film that a lot of horror fans really, really love.

Hope is a pretty big budget spectacle movie. Apparently a lot of CGI monsters and aliens and stuff. Also kind of divisive, but a lot of people liked it. That's one of those films that was tracking pretty big standing ovations. Yeah, seven minutes by deadline, I think, is what that one got. Seven minutes by deadline is like four minutes in the real world. But no, still, it did seem to get a pretty rapturous reception by some. Some people, the weathers have called it kind of janky and overlong and weird.

Definitely really interested to see the movie when it comes out and to see the reactions to it. It does feel like kind of the way that host was back in the day, a big swing by the Korean film industry to make a movie that has international aspirations, a spectacle movie with international aspirations. So I'm pretty interested to see how that plays out. Yeah, I'm excited for this one too. This is another one that I'm not counting out of Oscar categories, like multiple categories outside of the international feature. I think that we could see like production design type visibility for this. Apparently there's big action set pieces. But yeah, you're right to call out the fact that people are calling, saying that this movie is a bit too long.

I think the deadline article that I skimmed had said that if it had ended like 20 minutes earlier, then the applause would have been through the roof. So I'm interested to see if we see that runtime like trimmed for the theatrical release because this does seem like one that is being positioned by neon to like make a splash in theaters. Yeah. Yeah. That seems to be the intent of the movie. It has a pretty big budget and it seems to be made with.

the international audience in mind. So it'll be interesting to see if that actually hits or not. How do you think that Park Chan-Wok being the head of the jury helps from the perspective of being from the Korean film scene? Yeah, that's interesting because I did want to transition into like our picks for awards. And that is an interesting consideration. I'm not familiar with Park Chan-Wuk's relationship with Nahon-Jing. like I know like he's good friends with Bong Joon Ho for example

I like I know he's pretty collegial with some of those guys but I don't know about those two it's interesting if to consider whether that's something that will help him would be like oh my fellow Korean filmmaker who I know should get a leg up or maybe they have some secret rivalry I don't know about or maybe he he doesn't want to be awarding Korean films for being seen as as being too too pro Korean as

as an insufficiently impartial jury head. I have no idea. I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, I don't know. Like you said, it's hard to, it's hard to tell. Let's make Palm Door brick picks, should we? Yeah, let's do it.

Yeah. All right. Let's go. So you take the lead. Who do you think is taking the Palm Door this year now that we've had most of those films come out? Yeah. It does feel like this is going to come down. to one of three films, I think, well, one of four films, I guess.

Fatherland, all of a sudden, Minotar and Hope stands a chance. I feel like it really comes down to Minotar or Fatherland. And I'm just going to, I'm going to say it's going to be, it's going to be Fatherland. I feel like that, it seems like it would be, like, jury friendly. It is unpolarizing within the, um, the ratings on the grid. It's the highest on the grid. So I think that it's going to be father on.

Yeah, definitely a strong contender. In our last episode before the films opened, I did say I thought Minotar was going to be my pick. And I feel pretty good about that still. It seems like a lot of people really like Minotar. And I think the timing is very good for a anti-Putin Russian movie. that is also apparently a very kind of tasty thriller at the same time. Yeah, Zviga-Ginsav movies like Leviathan in the past have done well internationally.

I think he's got some serious chops and I think the material, the themes, the fact that he's coming back after a long absence. Apparently he almost died during COVID too, which might play to some people's sympathies. I think the storylines are good. And the fact that the film got a very, very strong reception, all threes and fours on the jury grid makes it a strong player. I could definitely see it being Fatherland, but I'm going to pick Minotar for the Palm Door.

I think I will say my complete predictions will be Palm Door to Minotar. Grand Prix goes to Fatherland. And then I'll maybe going out a bit of a limb, I'll say the jury prize goes to hope. Okay. Yeah, I like that. Though, yeah, Hamaguchi's all of a sudden definitely has to be a player in there too. A lot of people seem to like that movie a lot.

The one film that I think we didn't talk about was parallel tales, and it has not been well received. I don't know if you want to touch on that at all, but that was a little surprising for me too. Yeah, when you asked in our last episode what our pick picks would be for the movie that had the biggest stud stand ago, I said, I could see it being parallel tales. That is a bad pick because it was very poorly received despite having a cast of French cinema heavy hitters like Isabel Huper and Vincent Cassell and being from Ashgar Faradhi, who's made some very popular or very popular within the international film community titles in the past of Iranian films that have played very well in festivals in the past. It is bombed. It is, I said that sheep in the box, the Coriata movie, has.

the lowest score on the bridge, but Parallel Tales, I believe, has the second lowest, if I'm not mistaken, which is pretty brutal. And yeah, 1.7, which is in fact, well,

technically tied with Jean-Aries another day, but still, uh, whenever you're low to, that's kind of like you're entering the disaster zone. Yeah. And, yeah, kind of surprising. But, uh, but heavy, heavy low for Ferrati.

Though you never know. You never know which one of the movies that they don't like at Con will end up becoming like maybe we'll find its audience later on. I think the two, if I'm not mistaken, the two movies from last year that had the lowest scores on the grid were arguably the two most hype titles going in, Eddington and Alpha. And neither did very well at the box office, but I would say that I think it's fair to say that both have kind of found their audience and have kind of, are developing a kind of cult classic following.

So, yeah, you never know how the title's going to play out over time once it actually gets out into the real world. Yeah, I guess, I guess we shall see. Yeah, well, see, very soon by the time you're listening to this, it's possible that you already know who won the Palm Door. We don't, but it will be announced very soon. do you think this festival as a whole has been like a disappointment or have we had enough juicy drama to peak our interest? I mean, I could have done with a bit more.

It did feel like this year it was a lot of just like watching the reviews come in and not like a lot to really sink your teeth into. But I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, like following the French news, it feels a little. little more dramatic because there's a lot of like, um, people like Arthur Harari, who has a new movie, which, um, with Leis Hadou, uh, you know, he's been one of the people who's been attacking this kind of right wing takeover as some see it of the film industry. So he's been really put on the spot and have forced to answer questions about that. So there's been kind of

that like juicy political angle that's been playing out in France, but that really has it translated outside of France, uh, to like kind of digestible drama for the rest of the world. The drama over AI is the kind of stuff where it's like, we've seen this play out a number of times before. We know who's for it. We know who's against it. It's not really interesting.

So yeah, so far, it's not really, like the John Travolta thing is my favorite. It's just funny. Yeah. We haven't had just enough funny bits like that. So, yeah, it's definitely been fun. And I can't wait to see some of these titles. And there's probably something that I'm going to love. once I finally get a chance to see them maybe, you know, 10 months from now or whatever,

when I could, when my North American ass can finally, can finally get one of these, these movies into a theater. But, but we'll see. It'll be interesting to see what they award, though it does feel like you say, that we know what the heavy hitters are.

And I'm going to be crossed my fingers for a surprise. You know, something like Fjord getting the palm door would be, would be awesome. Or even hope, like just a weird choice. A weird choice would really. really like wrap it up nicely. Yeah,

hope would be a really interesting pick, I think. I would love to see that because that really would throw into chaos the next like several months until we kind of see these start being screened in front of like general audiences and stuff like that. Yeah. So if we're done on cans, there was another news article or two that I wanted to just bring up.

One news item that I think is interesting is the fact that the Golden Globes has expanded its voting body. Did you see this? No, I didn't. Tell me about it. Okay. So it is expanding its voting body from 400 to 500. And it is now open to journalists that represent like American organizations. Okay.

Okay. Yeah, that feels kind of like an inevitable next step in the kind of overhauling of the globes that we've seen over the past few years since they were sold and reconfigured. They no longer use the term the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. It's been a few years now where officially the Hollywood Foreign Press Association no longer exists. So kind of what the globes used to be has already been dissolved. That definition has already been dissolved. So if that's no longer what they are, a collection of non-American journalists, which is what it used to, to be, then of course there's kind of no more reason to keep out American journalists. So that

seems not surprising and fine. Like I'm not going to be angry about it. I think it's, I like that the Globes is an international body. International does not mean non-American. It could mean some Americans as well as people from all over the world. So yeah, that seems normal and cool to me. I think like if everyone accepts the membership, that the the main issue I have is that this becomes one fifth of the voting body is now American. And I worry that there is potential like potentially too much overlap between the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. Right. I don't know. Maybe that's, maybe that's unfounded.

Yeah. No, one fifth is still a pretty small percentage. That's about the same percentage of Oscars voters that are non-American. So there's almost a bit of a mirroring. Oh, nice. Which I find neat. Yeah. Yeah, sure. Sure, why not?

So other things that were on my radar, there was a bunch of articles about Christopher Nolan having to come out and defend the Odyssey from critics on the casting choices and the costing choices, which, like, I think some of the people that are like being like, oh, this is bad because of woke or whatever. Obviously, that is going to happen and those people are idiots. but the way that Nolan has come out here and, you know, obviously certified Nolan Hater, the way that he has like come out and been like, oh, well, uh, rap is linked to the Homeric oral tradition. Yeah. That's why Travis Scott is in the movie. Yeah.

Sure, buddy. And like talking about the, uh, the designs being inspired by mycenaean techniques or creating armor and stuff like that, just like reeks of bullshit. me and I am starting to like gleefully feel it in my bones that this movie is going to like is going to bomb like not a huge bomb obviously. No. It's going to be a success. But I think that this one is going to get ripped apart by critics.

I just I feel like this is going to be so shitty. That's what I'm trying to say. I feel like this movie is going to be so shitty. I don't know, man. I, yeah, I was also debating like whether we should do it. round of the Odyssey talk. We've touched on it before. And you're right, I feel like we can't avoid it.

Like, that's a big topic of discussion. Tons of people just assume this is going to be in Oscars heavy hitter. And I think that it's hard to deny that assumption. And the noise around the casting has gotten very, very loud. I considered talking about that, the previous episode, but I was kind of like, ha, this stuff's just sort of boring. you know, it's just kind of the same annoying story where like you cast the black person and white people are like, no, I don't want black people in my movie.

But I think it has reached a peak where, yeah, we do kind of have to address it. And one thing that I think that we have to address too is something that Elon Musk has been going on about a lot, which is that these casting choices were made specifically because the movie would not be eligible for an Oscar if it did not have DEI casting, as they call it. So I feel like that's worth addressing because there is kind of a pseudo conspiracy theory out there that the new Oscar rules do limit which movies can be eligible for Best Picture based on having a diverse cast. And that is pseudo true. Like that's the thing about this. Not in the way that Elon Musk has been angrily tweeting about, which by the way, I've had it really funny. he was on like a delegation with Trump to meet like President Xi in China.

And like the whole time he's on his phone tweeting about like, no, don't put Lupita Nyongo as Helen of Troy. Woke, woke, woke, bad. He tweeted a ton about this. Which, you know, who cares? But also like that there's millions and millions of people who are like, you know, following him. Like it's very influential.

So just to touch on that, what's being referred to by people like Musk is that that as part of the Oscars efforts to. be more diverse in the wake of the Oscar so white, you know, scandal where people got angry when they realized that the voting body was so white. One of the things that they did do is they added a document to the rules that's called the representation and inclusion standards. And that does actually set certain standards that have to be met for a picture to be eligible for best picture. So that does exist. They have a, it's a, it's a, it's a, a series of four standards.

One is the diversity of the cast. Do you have some cast members who are from representing diverse backgrounds? It's a very low bar to clear. And then the second standard is the crew, the diversity of the crew.

Again, low bar to clear, but that's there. Third standard is the marketing like targeting diverse categories of people. And the fourth standard is basically like are their internship opportunities from people from diverse backgrounds. For a film to be eligible, it has to meet at least two of those four standards.

So technically a movie can be, have a cast of all, you know, straight white men and be made by all straight white men. And still could probably pretty easily pass the test just based on standards three and four, which are generally met by stuff that studios do anyways. Like having LeBron James in your trailer. this does exist and for the record I do think it's it's kind of of the Oscars different like diversity efforts I think this is kind of one of the the dumber ones in the sense that I think it's attacking the problem from the wrong end in theory to have the idea of like oh only certain films should be eligible I think the the main prong of the Oscars diversification efforts which is just to try to make the voting body more diverse a process which has been undergoing since since you know, 2020, that is kind of the right way to go about it, you know, like have more opinions represented just through having a like a voting body, which is not completely very old white men. And to be clear, that like the Oscars voting body remains more old male and white than like the American population at large. So that process isn't necessarily completely done.

And I think that's the right way to go about it, where, whether like, whereas like setting guidelines, for nominations is not necessarily the right way to go about it. That having been said, this document is intentionally super, like, vague and general and easy to pass because I'm sure nobody at any stage actually wants to be refusing movies, the eligibility of the best picture. And this has been in force for three years now. I think the first best picture that was awarded since this actually went into went into operation was in fact

Oppenheimer. You might notice that Lepido Niyango and Elliot Page are not in the cast of Oppenheimer. That movie has a huge cast and it's like 99% old white guys, which is just to say like, no, this document does not

mean that like you need to have black women and leading roles and stuff. That's not what it says. It's a dumb corporate speak document. This is just different people in like an office checking boxes, somebody's hiring a cult consultant to give them a document and somebody's approving it because then they're, you know, they've satisfied that requirement that somebody has put on them.

It's just a dumb corporate document. And I'm convinced that at no point are we ever going to see a single movie refused eligibility for Best Picture because of the representation and inclusion standards. So I just wanted to clear that up for anybody who is like confused about this. Like, yes, this is a real thing. there is a representation and inclusion standards. And good, I think. Like, even though the bar is so low, like, the people that are upset about this are just, like, the worst people.

And it's interesting to see that the reaction here is, like, people are so sore about this for The Odyssey, like, specifically. And I was thinking about this and like... Because racists love Greek shit. That's why. Well, I think it's that. And like Christopher Nolan also like kind of makes movies for cyber truck owners. Like that's kind of the vibe. So yeah.

That's why they feel they're betrayed. They're betrayed. They feel betrayed. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. They feel betrayed. Absolutely.

When Christopher Nolan announced he was doing an odyssey, those like cyber truck guys were like, based. Hell yeah. You know, the greatest fucking filmmaker is is going to like talk about the, the awesome heritage of the Greek people and the white race or whatever. And then when he makes kind of just semi-interesting, but also just kind of like predictable casting choices, like Leiputa Nongo as Helen of Troy,

sure, like, why not? Like, sure, that's a beautiful actress. I'm sure she can play the role well. Is part of him being like, I'm going to, I'm going to like, you know, poke the trolls a little bit by casting somebody with dark skin as a famously beautiful woman. I feel like maybe a little bit more

than he's willing to admit to interviewers. Why not? Sure. Fine. Do that. Like, I think that's cool. But just the idea that he's like, I have to do this. Otherwise, I have no chance of getting an Oscar. The Oscars will ban me unless I put Lupita Nyango in my movie is a conspiracy theory, even though the existence of these

standards is not a conspiracy theory. And again, I'm really clear. I think this document's dumb. I personally, I think it's dumb. But I also think it will never affect anything because nobody wants that. They just want it to exist. This is a document that they want to exist because it checks a box.

It's theater. Sure. Yeah, it's just corporate culture of like, we have produced a policy that shows that we are taking this seriously. And the people who are treating this as like a conspiracy theory are the same people who are like Elon Musk,

who are also on, you know, on one hand being like, oh, it's just to get Oscar eligibility. Well, on the other hand, being like retweeting stuff like this is an intentional effort to desecrate our cultural history to moralize white people, which is, which is the more dangerous side of this. Right. And this was easy to predict. And I think to some extent, no one did predict it and is fine with that.

Like he wants people talking about his movie. Who wouldn't? But at the same time, I'm not sure how much. he does really, I'm not sure how much he's even aware of this, because the dude does not own a smartphone. He just said that like at an interview on 60 minutes, I think, that he doesn't own a smartphone. He doesn't use email. So I also do kind of, as much as I'm not a huge Nolan guy myself, I do kind of find the idea funny of like there being like a whole storm online that he's just completely unaware of because

he does not go online ever. he's just you know reading letters or whatever and uh and combing his hair in the mirror well i blissfully unaware of uh of of raving racists uh chewing up his movie yeah well speaking of movies that are possibly going to suck and casting choices uh one other piece that came out in the hollywood reporter was that the Daniels have cast Matt Damon in their upcoming film, which is supposedly going to feature like time travel and whatever other bullshit they're they're concocting. But he either beat out or was the only one that was interested when they had previously considered Ryan Gosling and Jack Black, I think, which is like I can see the ad.

of choices. I can see like, oh, Ryan Gosling or Matt Damon, like I can see there being, but Jack Black is a real odd third third person to put in that trifecta. Yeah, I'm happy Gosling is going to

escape that because I thought I'd seen that his casting was confirmed, so I'm happy that's not the case because as I mentioned before, I feel really disappointed in Ryan Gosling kind of going down this path of doing kind of easy, dopey, big budget Hollywood movies and not challenging himself as an actor.

And doing the Daniel's new movie just felt like a really great outlet for him to continue being Ken once again. So yeah, let it fall on Matt Damon's shoulders. Why not? I'm not going to see it. But that's just me. I'm sure a lot of other people will. Unless I have to for the Oscar completion, I think that this one is going to be a no for me.

that uh no i do not bring that hex on here of the of another round of the daniels having an oscar's contender that has got to be a one-and-done that has to be a one-hit wonder it has to for my sanity i do not they they they need to to refine their niche audience and not force people who watch all the oscars movies because they are obliged to do so for reasons they did not understand to be exposed to that. This is another one where I feel like everything everywhere all at once was kind of like the perfect time. It was like the crescendo of that, you know, that millennial like hokey vibe that

it like encapsulates. And I think that there is not as much like not as much. I don't think people are as racist. receptive to that now as they were in 2023. I'm not sure, man, because Project Hail Mary was a huge hit. And that is also very like red at core. Like that is very like like millennial dorky kind of vibes. And so I think we're not done with that.

Okay. I haven't seen that one yet. So maybe you're right. All right. We got any other news that we got to hash over? No, I think that's everything that I had covered. I'm sure there's something that I'm missing. but we can talk about it next time.

Yeah, we'll do it next time. Next time, maybe we can finally move on from Cod and start talking about some other stuff going on in the world of Hollywood and film. Maybe do some more history stuff too. You know, I like doing the occasional bit of Hollywood history. Maybe we can throw in something there if it ends up being a slower news week.

Yeah, we should do a summer blockbuster preview. We're heading into that time. So I think that might be the move. Yeah, my kid. We could might as well get it in before the Odyssey's out and the reactions really reach a fever pitch. Right. So we'll see who wins the Palm Door. And you guys listening can let us know how right or wrong we were down in the comments and tell us what other stories you'd like to hear us talk about.

What have we not discussed yet about Hollywood in the Oscar season? Craig, it's a bit of slice. Yeah. So my name is Dylan Ferguson. you can find some of my writings about film on substack. If you're interested, it's a free substack. Just look for my name, Dylan Ferguson. Craig, do you want to leave our audience with?

Yeah, just make sure you hit your like, subscribe, rate us, leave us a comment. That all helps us out a ton. If you want to find me, you can find me on social media at chess.com slash member slash Craig J. Midwinter. I have a 400 rating. I'm really bad. Add me as a friend and you can beat me and boost your score. Yeah, that's it for me.

All right. We're wrapping things up here. So don't forget to stand up and clap for at least 12 minutes. This is the end credits. Craig, Craig, 12 minutes of this. We're going to end the episode with 12 minutes. Okay, that's enough. All right, chow.