Oscars Outsider - Will Digger even get drafted? It's our 2027 Oscars Fantasy Draft!

Episode Date: October 6, 2026

It's DRAFT DAY on Oscars Outsider!Craig and Dylan go head-to-head in our second annual Oscars Fantasy Draft, selecting 26 films they think will dominate the 2027 Academy Awards and the awards season leading up to them.With *The Odyssey* looking like the obvious first overall pick, is there any strategy that can beat Christopher Nolan's epic? And how much should we be willing to gamble on films like *Dune: Part Three*, *Project Hail Mary*, and *I Play Rocky*?Plus, we dig into the disastrous opening of *Digger*, debate whether Tom Cruise still has a shot at an Oscar nomination, and discuss what the Warner Bros. shake-up could mean for the future of ambitious studio filmmaking.There are risky picks, an actual draft-day trade, some immediate regrets, and a few movies we might already be betting against.**Follow the draft all season long:** https://oscarsoutsider.comWho has the stronger roster? What did we draft way too early? And which movie did we foolishly leave on the board?Let us know in the comments!#Oscars2027 #OscarsPredictions #TheOdyssey #Dune3 #OscarsOutsider

I got to say, I kind of can't resist the challenge of trying to build a deep enough lineup that can take on the Odyssey. I really like approach to get from that angle. So I'm going to choose to pick second. I'm going to choose to pick second to get a deeper lineup, to get two extra picks. Craig, I'm letting you get the first overall pick. Interesting strategy. I'm not going to make any sort of like surprise off the board picks with number one, but I'm taking the audits. Welcome to Oscars Outsider and somebody close a window because there's a draft in here.

It is draft day and we are going to kick off a game that we're going to be playing against each other from now until Oscars night. It is the long-awaited Oscars Outider award season fantasy draft. Hell yeah. I'm Dylan and I'm stoked with me as Craig. Is Craig also stoked? I am so stoked right now. I am, I'm hyped. Yeah, I'm pretty up for this.

So we've been looking forward this for a while. It's the second year that we've done a award season fantasy draft using movies. And we will explain it very quickly. Some of you are probably logging in, hoping to hear our takes on some of the news of the week. You know, maybe some of the news concerning a specifically disastrous debut weekend. We will get to that when we talk about the movies. We will have a lot to say about a lot of movies. but tonight is all going to be about the draft.

So we will talk Digger. I'll just say it when somebody drafts Digger, however high and however low that may end up being. And I'm really interested to see what that is. So this is the second year, like I said, that we've been doing in an award season fantasy draft. I'll very quickly explain how it works. I'll try to do it quickly because I completely emphasize

that there is nothing more boring in the world than having somebody explained to you the rules of a game that they invented. but it's like a sports fantasy draft. Instead of picking players, we are picking movies, we are picking movies, we're going to take turns drafting movies that we think are going to have the most nominations and especially the most wins, not just on the Oscars, but also in several precursor awards shows we're counting the Critics Choice Awards. We're counting the Golden Globes.

The BAFTAs, the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the Writers and Directors Guild Awards. So if you're holding a movie that gets a nomination, for most of those, it is So one point for our nomination, two points for a win, though you get more points if it's the best picture equivalent. And then when we get to the Oscars, a bunch more points are suddenly in play. A nomination start at three points each. And there's a sliding scale that they get worth more when we get to more important categories. And the biggest haul of the night is going to be 25 points if the movie that you're holding wins best picture. If you want complete rules, they'll be on Oscars outsider, right?

Craig, Oscar's Outsider.com. Link in the description. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. So there's a few more wrinkles in there, but we'll get to those when we get to those. And you can see it all on Oscarsoutider.com.

And you can follow along on the website too. Something that's a bit different this year compared to last year for anybody who was with us last year as well. You might notice that we're doing this a lot earlier. Last year we held our draft at the start of December, which is right around when we start to get the first nominations for important awards. this year, we're doing this in early October. It is currently October 5th as we're doing this.

So we are going to divide the game into kind of two seasons. We're going to call from today until December 3rd, the preseason and starting December 4th. That is the regular season up until Oscars Night. Why December 4th? Because that's when the Critics Choice Award nominations are supposed to be released. We today are going to be drafting a total of 26 films going back and forth. The person who goes first gets 12. person who goes second gets 14th. You get a couple bonus titles to partially make up for the

advantage of picking first. Trades are unlimited. We could also occasionally drop and pick up a new title though there are strict restrictions about when we can do that. But by the time we get to December 4th, we have cut our lineups down to eight films and we're each going to have eight films going through award season, though we can still make trades during that period. Craig, do you think that's a sufficient summary for what we're going to be doing here in this game? Yeah, that's funny. Yeah, great. Okay, we've got a lot to cover because like I said, we're going to be drafting a total of 26 films and there might be trades today. Even during the draft, that is absolutely allowed and absolutely something that I want to have happen.

Should we dive right into it, Craig? Yeah, let's go. Okay. So to start things off, I'll do a coin flip and the winner of the coin flip gets to choose whether they would rather draft first. And look, I'll just say it, drafting first is obviously going to be kind of a big deal this year because there is, this is kind of the LeBron James draft. There is a big superstar at the top of the draft available. Though if you'd rather pick second, you do get some bonuses,

including two bonus picks during the draft. You'll get the 13th and a 13th and a 14th pick at the end. Let me flip a coin, Craig. And you call it in the air, okay? Okay. Tails. That is ahead on my 25 Guatemala and Santavo's coin. Just confusing you as to where we're recording because you'll never know.

You literally never know where we're recording. Okay, so I get the choose. And I got to say, I kind of can't resist the challenge of trying to build a deep enough lineup that can take on the Odyssey. I really like approach to get from that angle. So I'm going to choose to pick second. I'm going to choose to pick second to get a deeper lineup to get two extra picks. Plus, they also get a pick first in the bonus rounds. It's a very slight advantage.

But we'll get to that at the end of the show. So there are some slight advantages to picking second. But the major one is that you get a deeper line. If you get extra picks. And I really like that challenge of doing that. So I'm going to choose to pick second. Craig, I'm letting you get the first overall pick.

Interesting strategy. And you know what? I think that it is a fairly decent one because I do feel like what I am projecting to go as number two overall is surging and has a pretty high ceiling in terms of where the nominations could land. So that said, I'm not going to make any sort of like surprise off the board picks with number one, but I'm taking the audits. All right. So yeah, like I mentioned, there was a Titan at number one. And this is this will surprise absolutely nobody. You would have to go through an extreme degree of galaxy braining to convince yourself to pick anything.

But you know, with the first overall. I had prepared for the fact that I might get the number two pick and I was doing the galaxy braining and I do see what I project. Well, let's talk about number two when we get to number two. But my reasoning behind The Odyssey to no one's surprise is I think that it's probably got a floor of about 10 nominations, which is huge and a ceiling of like, you know, 16-ish maybe. I think we've even said, like, it could go, go higher than that. So, yeah, I'm, I'm choosing the Odyssey. So 16s, of course, is the all-time nominations record set just last year by Sinners. Craig, let's do a side bet, okay?

Not part of the game, but let's say if one of us gets it right, the other one has to buy them a bottle, a bottle of wine or something, right? Yeah. How many nominations is the Odyssey getting? Give me an exact figure. 16. I was thinking of doing the same thing of going right on the nose. Okay, I'm going to say 15 in that case.

Well, I do think their all-time record is in play. It would take like all the dominoes falling just right. I will say that, yeah, I mean, it's, yeah, I think it's getting four acting nominations. I think like Anne Hathaway is kind of searching and Samantha Morton is in in terms of sporting actress nominations. So I think you'd get four acting nominations, which gives it a leg up.

To get four, to get, I said 15, it would have to miss on two that sinners hit on. And I say it misses on original song and either costume design or potentially adapted screenplay. But I think I've said that before. But you've got 16 on the nose. All right. We'll see. We'll see in five months. Who's right?

Okay. Second overall pick. This is like if first overall pick was the most obvious one, second overall pick at this point is probably the second most obvious one. Yeah. I also am going to resist the urge to get two Galaxy Brain, and I'm going to pick Labola Negra from Spain. That feels like it's become the consensus for the movie that people think could challenge the Odyssey, the second most likely movie to get a lot of nominations to potentially win best picture.

So, I mean, yeah, I'm not going to overthink it. I think that the specter of Amelia Perez isn't entirely out of the picture. Like, this is still a movie that has had lots of really appreciative receptions, but still in the cloistered world of film festivals. We are still waiting to see how general audiences react when it goes wide release. And that can change. And that might change this perspective that so many people have that it is just going to be an Oscars heavy hitter. Though I think the fact that it played so well in Toronto, which is a pretty meat and potatoes kind of public. and, you know, won the People's Choice Award,

more or less banished any doubts that people had that this was going to play well with the general public. So I think, yeah, La Bolanager also being a, at least partially a period piece, you know, that gives it things like costume design, production design, potentially in play. So it could be a movie that gets a lot of nominations too. And feels at this point like a sure thing for a best picture nomination. Yeah, I completely agree.

When I was mathing out this as what my first pick would be, I saw it potentially getting up to 14 as a ceiling for nominations and seven for a floor. So I'll be surprised if it does any less than seven at this point at least, obviously super early. But I think the fact that there's a musical component to this as well is definitely going to play into its favor as well. It's a weak point I think is acting because it doesn't really have any obvious acting nomination. contenders. Well, I do think that Penelope Cruz is maybe in the conversation for supporting actress and then... I think more for the invite than for the Blenegro.

I think it's possible in either. But yeah, we'll see how the audience responds to this once it's in a wide release. Yeah, for sure. All right. The two behemoths are off the board. I didn't do that on purpose. Craig, what do you got with number three? Okay, so number three, I think is going to be a little, I'm going to take a little bit of a risk here.

I feel like having The Odyssey is maybe affording me the opportunity to take a little bit of a risk. And I'm going to grab Dune Part 3. And I think that this could go either way. Like, obviously, Dune hasn't had, like, a real, like, run at the Oscars. Like in a way that like, you know, a Return of the King style run. And I don't see this as the year that that happens, especially with with the Odyssey in play. But this is definitely going to be a player within the more crafty categories,

like costume and makeup. Special effects. Villeneuve winning movies almost always not just get nominated, but win special effects. He's a crazy track record of his movies winning the, Oscar for Best Special Effects. Yeah. So I think that there is a potential if everything goes its way that it gets 10.

I think this has a really low floor, though. I feel like we could see just maybe like three nominations for Dune or less than that. The worst case scenario is Avatar 3. Or which despite one or two get a lot of nominations had the third one only had two. Right. We could see Wicked 2 here. as well, just a complete shoutout. I don't think that that is beyond the realm of possibility.

I think Wicked is less of a comparable, though I understand we are going with that in terms of being like a big budget spectacle movie. So, Dune 3, that's my second pick. All right. I do think that's a high value pick. I do think a little surprised to see it go as high as third overall, but I do think it's definitely a high value pick, especially because unlike the vast majority of movies we're going to be talking about, we have zero reactions on Dune 3.

has not had any screenings whatsoever. So we don't know how it's going to go, but I could definitely see people really rallying behind it. I think Timothy Shalami is a wildcard still. I really think he could get, nobody's talking about him as the best actor contender. But I think once the movie actually opens and people see that he gets to go ham playing Paul Trades in this movie. Like he gets to go God Emperor mode. Like he gets to take that character like huge in this movie.

And I think that that's going to impress a lot of people. people. So this might have some acting potential which previous do in movies have not had, though they always, of course, have that like depth in terms of craft. And the first two were both Best Picture nominees as well, directing at least the first one, I think was maybe a directing nomination. Anyways, lots of potential there. Totally. Um, all right. So my second pick fourth overall. Hmm. There's, there's two here that have a lot of potential value. and I'm debating between them. And I think I'm going to have to go with Wild Horse 9 on this.

Okay. I think that makes sense. I'm personally a McDonough hater, so I'm personally not super excited about the movie. But everybody seems to agree that the Volpey Cup winner, John Melkovich, is an acting frontrunner. There seems to be a consensus that this is a Best Picture nominee. things like directing potentially screenplay for sure

original screenplay are in play maybe cinematography they shot on Rappanoi the value just seems high on Wild Horse 9 I feel like I can't turn that down at the number four slot even though I'm a little hesitant because there's some other really juicy titles still on the board but I think I've got to take the fourth overall and use it on Wild Horse 9

Okay that is that is a good pick I think that that is where I would have gone next. I was kind of thinking about, you know, three, three different films in terms of the next pick. And that was definitely one of them and probably the one that I would have taken. The other two, I'm going to, I think, choose what I feel like is maybe the safer pick of the two.

And that is the invite. Yeah. That's the other one that I was really debating going. with for number four. So I think that's a good pick. So in terms of invite, my justification for this would be, I think that there's, again, a ceiling of maybe about six. I think we could see this in the best picture category.

I'd be kind of surprised if we did not see it there. I think we could see the Olivia Wilde within the directing category. That's another one that I feel like I'd be a little surprised not to. and then we might see her in the actress category. I think that that is fairly likely as well. There has never been a woman who has been nominated for best actress in a movie she directed herself. That could be a tasty bit of history that the Oscars might not be able to resist turning down. And then, yeah, I think like adapted screenplay and then there's supporting actor or actress opportunities here as well for like Penelope Cruz or Edward

Norton. So I think that there's a lot of a lot of potential here. I think what is running up against is like being a summer release that is like only moderate profile. It's not like it's like a the Odyssey and it's got a huge amount of of inertia in order to maintain the momentum that it needs come nomination time. But I do feel like there's a lot of love for this movie. I love the movie and I think that anyone who sees it is going to be be charmed by it mostly. Yeah. And it's worth taking into consideration that the voting body of the academy is becoming increasingly millennial.

And I've talked about that in the past in terms of them liking movies that are like Reddit cringe or whatever. But there's also the other aspect of it where people who are like 40-ish years old want to see movies about people, how their lives are now. and the invite is that kind of movie that will be attractive to some people who don't necessarily want to see a fantasy spectacle, but want to see something that reflects the lives that they're living. And yeah, I think the acting is what really gives it a lot of a lot of weight, the acting potential. There's, I think, one or two other cases where a movie where every cast member had a nomination.

One of them was who's afraid of Virginia Woolf, which is often used as a comparison for the invite. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the invite becomes one of those rare movies where every cast member, because there are four cast members, they all get a nomination. I'm not saying I'm predicting that, but that could happen. All four have a strong argument for them. Everybody's good in this movie. And casting, yeah, like there's four roles and they filled all four of them perfectly. Yeah, totally. All right.

So now we're down to six over. all. My third pick. Yeah. Now it's starting to get squishy because there's a few I really want in my roster here. And now the calculation starts to be, which ones do I think are going to fall down further so that I can nab them later? And which

do I have to jump on right now? Because I think if I don't, you're going to use your next pick to get it. Getting a little psychological here. Whatever. You know what? I'll I'm going to pull the trigger on I play Rocky with the six overall pick.

I still see the new movie from the, the otter behind movie 43 and the world's greatest beer run being a best picture nominee. I think that if anybody can follow up on the high highs of Ricky Stinniki and balls up, it's got to be our goat, Peter Farley, with the crowd-pleasing

a rocky movie that, yeah, like I've said it before, it just feels like, it feels like a co-worker movie. It feels like something that like, that just has that mass appeal that even the people who only see like four or five movies a year,

this is going to be one of the movies they see. I think it does good box office and it does like broad box office among like different, different categories of people that it has that kind of popular appeal to it. So I, want that on my team.

So I'm going to take I play Rocky. Maybe like even Dark Horse best actor. I feel like there has to be a unknown in the best actor category. There's usually one newcomer who slips in. And this year it feels like it's all a bunch of veterans that people are talking about. Andrew Scott is maybe not totally a veteran. But he's been around for a while, been doing a lot of good work for a while. And otherwise, you know, they're talking about people like Nalkovich and Turturro,

where it would really be kind of a career achievement. Men Award. Damon. It feels weird that there isn't a newcomer. And Anthony Ippolito is somebody

that the reviews I've seen of Iplay Rocky, they all talk about this guy's performance. Could he sneak in as a newcomer? Potentially. I think there's a lot

of potential for this movie. Yeah. I think that there's a lot of potential for us to be talking about it within the best picture category.

I think that that I don't see it as having a higher ceiling for the amount of nominations that it scores. Six might be a pretty high pick to use on this movie, honestly. I'm almost talking myself out of it now that I've done it. Yeah. I mean, this is on my radar for sure, but not this high. So, yeah, interested to see how that turns out because, you know, it is possible that it does score a lot, but I feel like there's more value on the board, Silvas.

So you can have to. that you can have it. So with my fourth overall pick, uh, I'm feeling a little bit emboldened by that. And maybe this is a bit riskier, but I don't think it's too risky. I think there's a safer value pick on the board still, but I'm debating between, um, but of the two that I'm thinking of right now, there's one that I want on my roster more and that's the debut. So I think that, that this has definite acting potential. I think that it's got the possibility of being in the best picture conversation.

There's a song in there. There's a writing nomination there. There's a casting, acting. Like, I feel like this could have very long tendrils in a lot of categories, which means a lot of like visibility, which I think could do good. things and I love my boy Gigi so I want the debut on on my roster so personally I kind of feel like I see

the debut as a movie that's falling rather than growing and the reason I say that is that the screenings had in tell you're right in Toronto were generally positive but a lot of the reviews and reactions coming out where people saying things like it's a lot weirder than I expected which makes me more excited to see the movie for sure but makes me wonder if it has kind of the as much general appeal as you would hope to see from a movie that would get a best picture nomination. It's, it sounds like that maybe Eisenberg is doing something a little more strange and unconventional with the film than what the trailers would have you believe. So, so, so I'm wondering if that's one who that's, that stock is, is falling, you're not

rising, but I have no idea. And I think there's like you laid out a good case there. a lot of potential value to be tapped in there. Okay. So that brings me to my fourth pick, which is going to be eighth overall. Give me club kid. Give me club kid. This is one that I really want on my team. I really see this as a movie that has serious potential.

I think the ceiling for club kid is a Nora. Not necessarily winning best picture, but getting a lot of nominations like that. I think it potentially has that combination of kind of a sort of a very accessible fairy tale kind of storyline that gives it a general appeal while also having a bit of like an contemporary urban grittier setting that gives it a little more of a little more of an edgier appeal to certain younger audiences. I think that combination is pretty winning and I think that combination is something that helped propel Anora to having a lot of award season success. It was very well received at con. It has been well received in screenings ever since.

I just see this as a movie that like different types of people are going to be lining up behind. And I think there's a lot of potential for a club kid to come award season. A big difference here is that this is a first movie from Jordan Firstman. Well, he's going to have to change his name for the second movie. Unlike Onora, which, you know, Sean Baker was already a well-established and well-liked figure. But I think Jordan Firstman is kind of building a reputation as a well-like guy as well, and that there's going to be a lot of people in LA and in the movie world that are going to be happy to support this picture. You know, I really like this pick.

I think that this is one that could easily find its way into the best picture category. I think a lot of the discussion that we have been having about I Play Rocky could similarly be applied to Club Kid. I think that. Yeah, but with a bit more of a cool factor, right? Yeah, yeah, exactly. I think that this is one that definitely could be, I think it could emerge as a coworker movie as well. I think that it's one that could definitely find its way in there.

And I really like that pick. All right. What do you got with ninth overall? Okay. So with ninth overall, I, this is a movie that I don't really want on my roster. But I feel like it is something that has the highest,

ceiling that that's still on the board and that's Project Hail Mary so I saw this comic yeah yeah that is that's that I don't I don't have anything else to say about this movie I feel like it is going to like it it has had more staying power within the conversation

than I would like to admit I think it's going to be in some of those crafty categories and it is likely it's likely that it will find its way into best picture uh adapted screenplay probably so honestly so much of what you said about dune three you could say about project tail mirror yeah exactly yeah so um that's that's what i'm going to take yeah definitely um like you said kind of a high ceiling safe pick that makes total sense um so nine picks in we're starting to get kind of the more

obvious ones off the board it's it's starting to get interesting here because now we're going to have to kind of start reaching a little bit, start divining, start seeing into the future a little bit, because this is still pretty goddamn early. We're five months before the Oscars. 10th overall, eh? I kind of want to pull the trigger. I kind of want to pull the trigger. I think I'm going to have to go digger. I think we're going to, we're going to have to dig her up, Craig. Okay, digger. Let's take a break from the draft and talk about digger. Bang, bang. Here's digger. I haven't seen the movie.

Statistically, neither have you. I think statistically, more people have seen Bigfoot than have seen Digger. So, yeah, obviously, we just had Diggers opening weekend. The cumulative gross was, let me check variety here, 1625 and two buttons is what it says. It did not go very well. Obviously, this is a big news story right now. Not just in terms of like Oscar stuff,

but also it just happens that this is going on. The same week that Warner Brothers sale is being finalized to the Skydance Paramount Conglomerate. So Digger, which is now a certified bomb, is believed to now be the last movie that will ever be released under the Warner Brothers banner, which is crazy. Because the new conglomerate, which we now know that David Ellison is going to just call Sky Bros. Dance is apparently neither going to use Warner Brother nor Paramount Browning. Because I guess why kill off the legacy of 100 plus year old iconic studio when you could kill off the legacies of two iconic 100 plus year old legacy studios? That's just good business, I assume.

So Digger is obviously getting embroiled in all this and we found out that Skydance is not going to retain the heads of production of Warner Brothers, which is Pamela Abdi. Michael DeLuca, whose term as head of Warner Brothers was very exciting. Like, very, they allowed a lot of filmmakers to take a lot of big swings. They allowed a lot of creative freedom and a lot of budgets to a lot of these filmmakers. It was kind of for a while, an exciting period. The lows were very low, you know, like Joker 2 and The Bride, but some of the highs were very high, including last year's two Oscar season, Juggernauts, sinners, and one battle after

another. That is going to come to an end now. we are no longer going to have that kind of creative freedom for sure coming from this new, newly rebranded Skydance company. And coming out under that cloud, it's hard not to have sympathy for Iniaratut and crews and Digger, even if the movie's not good. I haven't seen it. I don't know.

I withhold judgment until I see the film. But whether it is, in fact, a disaster or a masterpiece, whatever your speed is on it, this is the kind of wild, big swing, expensive, creative movie that might very soon be a thing of the past. I don't know. Before we move on, Craig, do you have any thoughts on this whole, this whole digger debacle now that it's kind of reached its climax? So those two buttons were mine. I did see Digger last week. Oh, you saw it.

I saw it. Yeah. All right. No spoilers, but give me your general thoughts. Okay. Well, I do want to talk about spoilers. I won't like spoil. I'm not going to be able to see it for like a few weeks now.

So I'm like trying to avoid that this mid-film spoiler that everybody is alluding to. So I am going to talk loosely about the idea of spoilers. I am not like someone that gets worked up about spoilers. I'm not like I actually find it so fucking annoying. The like the need to remain unspoiled for things because if a film or a TV show or whatever, if the only thing that it has in its pocket is like some twist that you need to hide from your friends in order to make it compelling, then it's whatever. It's a boring. It's boring. So with that out of the way, I feel like the most annoying thing about Digger is the strong reactions that people are having to Digger because I went in there and I was like, okay, I am going to love this movie.

or I'm going to hate this movie. But either way, I'm going to, like, feel strongly about this movie. So I'm excited to go and see this. I'm excited to go and give my two buttons to say, yes, studios, please take, like, big swings, like, do something interesting. And it was just kind of whatever. Like it was not compelling enough to be like good. There was parts of it that I liked and parts of it that I really strongly disliked. It didn't take a big enough swing in the places that I wanted it to.

I felt like it telegraphed a lot of what it was doing. It is so on the nose. It feels like the type of movie that would have. like kicked a lot of ass 15, 20 years ago when there was an appetite for that sort of thing or when I was maybe younger and it was something that like

I would have been like oh yeah that is that is some sharp satire there but it just like it it doesn't it doesn't hit the twists in the film I feel like are really really telegraph to you as well it's

just okay I think that Tom Cruise does does do some really, like, good things at times within this. Riz Ahmed is, uh, is really great in it. But it's like, it could have been, it could have been so much more. I feel like there was like so much potential. I wanted like Terry Gilliam doing Dr. Strange Love and I didn't, I didn't get it.

Um, so yeah, I, it, it committed the worst sin for me, which is to make me feel like me about. Okay. Not the reaction I was expecting. Interesting. So I guess you're having a more American reaction, according to the latest ad. Did you see this new ad for Digger where they, I saw one where they're saying like audiences love it, but critics hate it. They put out an ad, I think, yesterday where they put side by sides of clips snippets from reviews from America that are all very critical and snippets from reviews from other countries that are very positive. So they'll show like a, you know, a clip of an American critic being like a disaster from end to end. And a clip of a critic from, you know, Japan or France or Mexico being like, wow, an ambitious masterpiece.

And they pair that with clips from the movie of characters saying things like, whose side are you on? Which is a crazy advertising strategy. I've never seen a movie try to use anti-American sentiment as its advertising strategy. It is literally being like, if you don't like digger, you must be on Team America. You know, if you're against the direction America is taking, put your money where your belt is and buy a ticket to digger, which is wild. They're trying everything. They're trying everything in the marketing campaign, but obviously the ship has already sunk. Definitely can't wait to see it.

Yeah. I mean, I think that there's some really great things. I think like the sets are fantastic, in my opinion. I know that that's something that people actually don't like about this movie. I feel like the production design is great in this. But I am more like bored by it than anything else. And the second feeling that I have is annoyed. And I am annoyed by the people that are saying that this is a masterpiece.

Because like what? Like the three amigos? We've got Iniarates buddies, Seniors Spielbergo himself, Guillermo del Toro and also Alfonso Corrin, less expectedly, both of them taking to Twitter to basically shout from the rooftop that this movie is a masterpiece and will be recognized as such in the future

and you just don't get it yet. Okay, of course, Gilmer Del Toro, like this high production value cheese fest, like, yeah, that made by his best buddy. Yeah. Yeah, so I'm glad that is on your roster because I was prepared to

draft another Warner Brothers film above this one because I would have picked, Coyote versus Acme. The question of the awards campaign is an interesting one in the, amidst the carnage of Digger's disastrous opening. Here's a fun fact. Every single Alejandro Gonzalez-Hydiarity movie has been nominated for at least one Oscar, going all the way back to Amoros Peros.

The Academy has a history of liking him a lot. the question is, is Warner Brothers still interested in spending money on an awards campaign? They were planning to do so, but now that the movie is a bomb, are they just going to say, well, we don't want to invest another dime into this, especially during our corporate transition with new ownership taking over because we're just going to cut our losses and write it off. That would make sense. On the one hand, on the other hand, Skydance would not have even been able to make this acquisition if it wasn't for Tom Cruise.

Skydance's most valuable movies by far are Top Gun Maverick and the Last Mission Impossible movies. That is where David Ellison made the kind of money that allowed him to even pretend to be able to take over Warner Brothers, even though the real reason why he's allowed to do so is that his, you know, Larry Ellison, his father's Oracle money is being used as a guarantor for it. But Skydance would be completely,

insignificant if it wasn't for those Tom Cruise movies making it a lot of money, is there that loyalty factor there? Is David Ellison going to say, well, I got to be loyal to Tom Cruise? And if Warner Brothers promised him in awards campaign, I can't lose Tom Cruise. You know, I've got to stay in his good graces. I've got to honor that that word that Warner Brothers gave him. And I've got to follow through on investing in an awards campaign for this. That's the interesting question for me. Does Warner Brothers still feel obligated to try to campaign for Tom Cruise for best actor at this point? Or do they feel like sorry, the terrain has shifted,

and now we've got to cut our losses and say, fuck you? I mean, I think that we still see something of a campaign, and it's a big performance. So, like, I don't think it's, like, crazy impossible that we see him amongst the nominees. But I do think that a bomb of this magnitude is really, hard to ignore. Like, that's, it's a huge smell on this movie.

And I feel like there's going to be a lot of voters that are averse to giving it any sort of endorsement. Like, who's going to be going and doing, like, hosting screenings and Q&As of this film at this? But there is still the contingent of voters who are agree with Guillermo Toro. Like, there are still the people who are like, yeah, we've got to support big crazy swing. they may not be the majority, but like there's probably enough that are like, we've got to speak up for these big ambitious studio movies that are now in endangered species, even more so because of the Warner Brothers acquisition. I think there are shooters for this film who are going to want it to have success of the Oscars. So if you hold, you know, a campaign screening, yeah, there's got to be people there. enough to make it worthwhile to invest in

that kind of campaign, that is the question. But I'm taking it with my 10th overall pick because I think there is still value here. It might be out of the best picture conversation, but not necessarily. Technically,

one battle after another was a bomb last year. Not at all on this scale. It was a movie that still made quite a bit of money did not make its budget back. You could argue that one battle after another is the first bomb to win best picture in terms of a movie that lost that lost money to its studio.

It did do pretty well, but its combined production and marketing budget was something like $300 million, which is probably close to the combined marketing and production budget of Digger. It came way closer to making that figure than Digger will for sure. But that's not the only consideration,

right? There is still an appetite to promote movies that are seen as important art, even if they lose their studios money. Colors of the Flower Moon a couple years ago is another example of a movie that lost a lot of money for Apple. That didn't stop it from getting a ton of Oscar nominations. This is a more extreme case.

Yes, this is a more extreme case. It's not the same thing. But I'm not saying, I don't think that its bomb status completely writes it out from getting any Oscar nominations. Best picture might be out the window now. I wouldn't write it out 100%, but probably. Yet, I'm not running out Tom Cruise. I think there's still going to be enough goodwill towards Tom Cruise that he could get into the nominations.

He's no longer a frontrunner for sure. John Goodman for a sporting actor. That feels in play. A lot of people are talking about Riz Ahmed like you were. Cinematography, it's Chivo, man. It's Emmanuel Lubeski. I definitely see a cinematography nomination. You talked about the sets, production design could be in play.

Makeup. They put shit on Tom Cruise's face. That's like, that's how they choose nominations for makeup. What famous actor has shit on their face? And he cut down the time from six hours to five seconds or something, according to what he told the Kelsey brothers. So, yeah, I still see this as a movie getting nominations. That's why I'm using my 10th overall pick at it.

Okay. I mean, I do see, I don't, I see a world where this gets shut out for sure. I do see that as a possibility, but I think that it is more likely that a will at least get a couple nominations. So I don't think this is a crazy outlandish. But I also wouldn't have been shocked to see this slip a bit further. Yeah. Yeah.

I don't know. 10th overall feels about right for me. But it's like the range of possibilities remains huge, which is why we are still talking about it. Because it's one of the more interesting titles for me. Totally. Yeah. And I will say people should go see it if only to say, well, dig her up.

Bang, bang. Just to support big swings like this, but at this point, it's not going to make a fucking difference. So maybe don't waste your time. All right. That's enough digger. Let's digger down for a minute. 11th overall pick. Craig, what do you got?

Okay. So I'm going to take behemoth here. I think that this has, well, we've talked a lot about the potential here for behemoth to actually make a little bit of a splash within the best picture at least. And so I think that there's maybe a ceiling of four. And I feel like it at least gets a nomination somewhere. So Bohemoth just had its world premiere a couple days ago in the New York Film Festival, the centerpiece selection presented by Rolex. Honestly, if we were doing this draft a few years, a few days earlier before the premiere,

I probably would have already taken Behemoth by now. I feel like its prospects to me have kind of slipped since the premiere. Not that it went badly, just that it was not that effusive. It was generally positively received, but not to an extreme degree. And there were some negative reactions to. Notably, Owen Beck from The Guardian gave it a scathing two-star review where he invoked the specter of tar, as a lot of people have. A lot of people cannot resist comparing the movie to tar, but did so very negatively. saying like if only this movie had like one ounce of the intelligence of tar or something like that.

So it, you know, I've been very bullish on behemoth for the past month or so. But I would have liked to have seen a more positive world premiere at New York, which I think was a very good venue for it. And I expected it to be better received than it was. Having said that, I still like the movie. I like the movie's chances. in terms of finding a lane among voters who want a serious, mature, contemporary drama. And I still think that's a good pick.

And I sort of won it on my roster. I was kind of hoping to have it, even though I was a little disappointed by the reactions around its premiere. I'm open to just making a trade, Craig, for Behemoth, because I kind of want this. Oh, yeah? Yeah. What if I give you the,

18th and 24th overall picks in exchange. So, okay, let's see. You know what? Yeah, let's make it interesting. You can have it. All right. I'm stealing behemoth. 18 and 4.

I'm also updating Nile list. That's going to shake up the order a little bit, but we'll get to that when we get to that. All right. So 12th overall, back to me. Hmm. Yeah, it's getting interesting here. It's definitely getting interesting.

You know what I'm going to take with wealth overall? I'm going to take tender loving care, the new Mike Lee joint. I am not convinced this has best picture potential, but hey, one of our precursor awards is the BAFTAs. It definitely has best picture of the BAFTA's potential. And that's worth a little bit more. I can see Elaine for this in the Oscars. I can see with a lot of the movies that are considered frontrunners being kind of loud, brash movies, I could see there being a lane open for a movie that's more gentle, quiet, humanist.

Like the Mike Lee movie, there's going to be a lot of goodwill towards Mike Lee, considering that this is widely believed to be the last film he's going to make. Kind of like how there was a lot of goodwill towards a prairie home companion, because it was clear that that was going to be the final Robert Altman movie, which got Oscar nominations. Original screenplay, for sure in play. That's the category where Mike Lee knows the Oscars best. Several Michael Lee movies have had nominations for us original screenplay,

including Secrets and Lies, Happy Go Lucky, I think another year more recently. That feels very much a possibility for me. Casting, maybe. It's kind of hard to judge casting because we only have one years of data. worth to go on. But, you know, last year they nominated the Secret Agent. So they're definitely not thinking of this just in terms of like which actors do we know and are familiar with are plugged into interesting roles. They're open to going with a non-American movie just based

on the personalities that are in there, whether they know it or not. So even though tender loving cares, all British cast will not be too familiar to most American audiences. Mike Lee is good at milking an ensemble. And I could see that getting into the best casting conversation. And you know what there are, like the academy is getting more international. And they have an office in London now. Like there are a decent number of British people who are members of the academy now. It's not like it used to be.

So yeah, the BAFTA potential is a big reason why I went this high, honestly. But also I think I think I could see it getting nominations for one, two, three Oscars. And the possibility of it sneaking in to the best picture race is not. not zero. Right. Okay. Yeah, I think that that's a reasonable choice. For my next pick, what are we at here?

13th overall? 13th overall. 13 is all of a sudden, it's hammer time. I am going to take Hamaguchi's all of a sudden, which I feel like is a film that is surging a little bit right now. I feel like it's got some momentum. I definitely see it within the international race and I think that there is potential outside of that.

I think it feels like it's a type of movie that could sneak into the best picture, especially feeling like it is a little bit of a weaker year for domestic titles at the Oscars, that it could cause people to expand their horizons a little bit. And we could see it in the best picture. We could see it in the adapted screenplay. maybe some acting awards because there's a lot of buzz around the performances here. So I see this as one that has a lot of potential right now.

Yeah, I think that's a pretty smart pick, honestly. I like that pick here. That's pretty good. So I'm debating between two different movies here with my seventh, 14th overall. Give me Fjord. Then we're kind of cracking into the international titles here. obviously La Bolanegro went second overall

and in the non-English language movies that is the clear frontrunner if we'd been holding this draft just a month, a month and a half earlier, Fjord probably would have went a lot higher. We've both talked on the show about how it feels like Fjord is kind of falling, how a lot of critics in America

aren't that into it, despite it being the Palm Door winner. But I still see it as being around the conversation. Best Picture nomination potential and screenplay for sure. Will it get any acting nominations? It's not out of the question. It could happen. There is still potential for this movie here.

We'll see when it actually goes into like a general release. Like if maybe some of the discussions that it provoked some of the controversy around the themes and the topics can kind of keep it in the public eye. I think there's enough that valley to be scraped out of of Kristen Munju's Palm Door Winning Fjord that I'll use my seventh pick on it. Yeah, that seems like a reasonable pick. I mean, I see a world where this is within the best picture

international and then original screenplays, not outside the realm of possibility and you know get an acting nomination or two and you're cooking with five there. So that's a good pick. All right. So 15th overall, for me, I am going for value right now. And one that I think is maybe some untapped value and also just a movie that I really want on my roster is Werewolf, Robert Eggers.

And I think that this is going to be within the makeup conversation, costume, suction design. suction design, cinematography, sound is even a possibility here. And when you've got like that kind of reach within the craft, it's not without the possibility of it expanding above the line. So I feel like this is at least going to provide me some value. Yeah, in that sense, it makes sense. It's got some serious craft's value.

though we could also see it getting a cinematography nomination and nothing else, which is kind of the usual for Robert Aker's movies. But there's definitely potential for more crafts value for sure. And like you say, kudos, there are so many people in like crafts branches voting in the academy that could propel it into some of the top of the line categories. It's not completely unreasonable to see that specter. All right. We're now at 16th overall. So at this point, it feels like you really got to start, well, I don't want to give away too much of my strategy.

But at a certain point, I think you got to start targeting movies because you feel very confident that they're going to get at least one nomination, especially if that nomination is going to be in a more higher value category. For that reason, I'm going to use my eighth pick on Elsinor. Okay. I'm mostly just because I feel so confident that Andrew Scott is getting a best actor nomination and could potentially win best actor at the Oscars, which gives you a lot of value. Is it in the conversation for any other categories? Screenplay potentially. Not too sure that it has a path anywhere else.

But just my confidence that it's going to be an actor is enough for it to like have pretty good value for the 16th overall pick. So I'll go with that. Okay. Yeah. I think this is a pretty good pick. Obviously, lots of. about and just got the performance here. So I think that's a pretty good one.

I am going to pick something that I think is also fairly safe to get one nomination in particular, possibly two, although I kind of hope this movie blanks, but Toy Story 5 is what I'm... That's smart. That's a smart pick. Yeah. I saw this movie. You know what? when this was like when they were talking about this movie and all the build up to it about being like a story about technology replacing you i had really high hopes for this and i this just this film does not live up to the the bar of quality that i expect a film i'm not as cold on animation as you are but it's still not my favorite i mean they got their own category right they're

So this is a very safe bet to be in the things to distract your children with for two hours category. I brought up another movie that I hope gets into that category, but I think it's far more of a long shot, Coyote versus Acme. I definitely recommend that movie. It actually kicks a lot of ass. So I wish that I was picking that here. And maybe since I've got a bit of room to pick a little bit deeper, I might even reach for that at 24th pick.

Unless you pick it before me. I'm not going to show my hand here. No, but I do think the Toy Story is a very smart pick because it seems like an extremely safe bet to get at least a nomination for a best cartoon. But also it's got a song by Taylor Swift, right? Yeah, and it sucks by whatever. But who cares? Like it's a Taylor Swift song that you assume that's going to get a nomination.

So I'm not going to pretend about it, expert on the song nominations because apparently I suck at it since last year I was absolutely convinced that Wicked was getting two when Avatar was getting one in the original song and of course they were crushed by the wave of Viva Verdi fever that was sweeping the nation everybody around the water cooler could not shut up but Viva Verdi. So you actually got to go again because since I gave you my 18th pick you can go 17th, 18th, 19th. You have three picks in a row here for the first of two instances. Okay. So, I am going to

pick two back to back that I think are going to be within the actress categories that I feel are fairly safely, it's safe to say at this point. Interesting. I am going to pick at 18. I am going to pick Rose. Okay. Which I think a lot of people are talking about Sandra Hewler's performance here

and after seeing most of the performances from her this year, we said I was going to be a big year for her. I feel at this point, this is maybe the safest spot. Yeah, I think you're right. I think that Rose will at least

get a nomination there and who knows, maybe more than that. But I'm not, I'm not predicting that just yet. And then next, I will take obsession because I do see this as a single nomination here for Indy Neverette, but there's a lot of love for this film and you never know. There's a lot of hope around this film as well as being kind of breaking out of that like genre whole.

So it's possible that that enthusiasm translates to multiple. nominations. I think maybe two, it could get into the screenplay. I, you know, maybe best picture. I feel like that's a real long shot. But there's people that are putting it on their list. So you never know. Hmm. Yeah. I'm going to say I gave you the chance to pick three in a row there. And I think you use that pretty wisely. I think that's a pretty smart run of picks there. enough so that I'm almost regretting the trade. No, I'm happy to have behemoths. I'm happy with that behemoth.

Not going to show buyers remorse. But I do think that you use those picks very well there. Those are some smart selections. Like I said, what I picked Elsinor, if you've got a movie, that's a very, very strong bet to get a best actor or best actress. That gets you a lot of points in our pointing system. So it's smart to try to try to aim for those. All right.

Finally, after a million years, I've got to make a pick again. And man, there are a lot of directions I could go with this. And I'm going to use the 20th overall pick on being human. Okay. Largely because Best Picture is not out of the question for this movie. I wouldn't bet on it. But it's potentially in the conversation. It was second runner up for the people's choice at Toronto,

which is not, you know, bad impressive. But still, a lot of people in Toronto liked it, which shows that it has that kind of general appeal. I think Apple is likely going to mount a bit of a campaign for it. Which categories could it get in? I'm not sure. Is there like a screenplay shot? Is there an acting potential?

That's kind of my hesitation here, where I feel like if it's not getting a best picture nomination, it might not be getting any nominations at all. So it might be a bit of a risky. pick, but the dark horse best picture potential is enough to make me not want to turn it down. Yeah, I think that

that's a good pick. I feel like if this wasn't on Apple TV Plus, I would put this maybe on par with I play Rocky even in terms of the potential. I just feel like Apple you can ignore the CODA factor though.

They've done it before. Apple has done it before. Yeah. No, no, exactly. But I think it's like, it's definitely riskier. So I think it's I think it's a good pick. I definitely see this as one that is maybe not on a lot of radars at the moment, but could be could benefit from from Apple really mounting a strong camp or it. Yeah. Okay. So I've got number 20. Let's see what? Twenty first overall. Oh, twenty first. You know what? I am going to take. You can see everything.

Oh, here it comes. Here it comes. Yeah, I, this is a film I have spoke about how I'm a big Nathan Fielder fan, but I am annoyed at how this is being positioned currently within the marketing

and buzz. The hype is like, is nuts. It does not seem sustainable. There's a lot of opium around this. Like, people are putting it in their best picture. They're putting, like, they're doing crazy things. I think somebody on like Vulture called it, the movie of the year.

There was an article in the New York Times about how it was the hottest ticket in town during the New York Film Festival, not just hottest movie ticket, like the hottest ticket to any entertainment event in New York. For the merest chance of potentially getting a standby ticket at the 7 p.m. screening as part of the New York Film Festival, people were camped out at 2.30 a.m. outside the theater. Like it was the phantom fucking menace. Yeah. Like, people went nuts for the screening. Yeah. So, I mean, this is going to be within the documentary category. I think I would be, I'd be kind of surprised if it wasn't.

But yeah, I think that this is going to be a movie that we're at the very least going to be talking about. And I am kind of excited to hold it. Yeah. I'm not sure what to expect. We talked to documentaries last episode. So, you know, check that out if you haven't heard it and you want to hear us discuss the documentary race. But like I said in that episode, I could see it missing the nominally. just because I could see it being not what the documentary branch, which narrows down the nominations,

is kind of into, like not what they what they see. And there is, as we discussed, lots of like pretty popular or controversial talked about documentaries this year. So the competition for that award is going to be fierce and interesting. But yeah, potential could be very high for this movie. if the huge buzz around it is not a bubble that will just burst and fade into the past and is actually something that that is sustainable and that people are still talking about this months and months down the line. And I have no idea whether that will happen or not. It's just, it's an unusual movie.

So there's hard to find like a kind of reference point for how it's going to play out. Right. Now we're at 22nd overall. My 11th pick. So many things to pick from here. Give me possible love. Okay, that's one that I was thinking about too. Give me possible love, Korean film Li Cheng Dong.

Big, big festival buzz. They liked it a lot in Venice. They liked it a lot in Toronto and various other festivals. Telluride. It's getting a nomination for Best International Feature. I feel very confident, even though, as I've said before on the show, a shocking fun fact is that only one movie, only one Korean movie has ever been nominated in any category of the Oscars before,

which is weird as hell. Yeah. But I'm confident this is number two that it's getting a Best International Feature nomination. Does it have potential beyond that? Not likely, but maybe. Like, people seem to really like this movie a lot. So there's maybe a slight chance that it sneaks into something like screenplay. And best picture would obviously be a very high ceiling, but not completely out of the question.

it's similar to what you said about all of a sudden. I kind of agree that all of a sudden probably has more going for it. But possible love is definitely in that category of like very popular international features that could have breakout potential beyond the category. And it's the one like all these other movies are like con movies we're talking about. There's got to be one that's not a can movie that that breaks out. And possible love seems best position. Yeah, I think that this is a pretty good pick.

So definitely one that is on my on my radar. I've got two picks left, right? That's I've got the, you've got, yeah, yeah, you've got two picks because you've got 23 and then you've got 24. Okay. Which was part of the trade. All right. So I think that I am going to take prime time with my 23rd pick.

I saw it. I really liked this. lot. I think that Robert Patterson is going to have a strong possibility of being within that actor conversation for this. It's a, like, it's a crazy performance. I think that, I think it's great. I really love it. It's like a little bit cartoonish, but he like really nails it. And so I see this having some momentum from that. I think that it's possible that, you know, a week ago, I would have said, like maybe it's possible this is getting more than just an acting nomination at this point. Just like it's doing okay in the in the theater, but it's not like it doesn't have a crazy

amount of word of mouth. So I don't know that it's going to, um, to really break out. But I think it's not impossible. Um, I think that it might get a boost from being Lance Oppenheim and there being a lot of buzz about him, uh, because of the collaboration with Nathan Fielder, you can see everything. So maybe there's some synergy there. I don't know if there's any sort of historic parallel for that type of like combined momentum. But that's just that's just like my my gut feel there. Good pick.

And you get to go again because you've got number 24 as well. Yeah. So there's a few different films on here that I think could get multiple Oscar nominations that I am not going to pick. Thinking things like Disclosure Day, I think has the possibility for at least being within the score conversation and maybe visual

effects and sound and stuff like that. I feel like that that wouldn't be too bad of a... There's a title we haven't brought up in a long time. Yeah, I know. Because it feels very dead, but I think come Oscar time, it's possible that we do

see it reemerge here. Another one is, like sense and sensibility, which I've heard people talking a little bit about. It's got the potential for like costume production design, the usual like period piece stuff. I really dislike Daisy Edgar Apple TV Plus face. I just like find her acting. Her performances really flat and annoying. And there's there's something about her performances that just really bother me.

So I don't want it on my roster. but I am going to pick with the last pick, I am going to take Fatherland. All right. And I think that this one also has the potential to maybe reemerge from its slumber once it gets a few more eyes on it. We talked about there being like a cinematography shot here. Maybe this is the one that gets,

like a lot of love for Sandra Hewler's performance. So there's potential here, even though I think it's more of a long shot at this point. Yeah, I think the black and white cinematography probably has the best shot at this point. I agree with you that the Rose performance seems to have eclipsed the Fatherland performance in terms of being the most likely Hewler performance

to get an Oscar nomination. But I think, yeah, Fatherland is not, is not out of the conversation, but I definitely expected it to be in more. I think we've had like one commenter on our videos who's seen Fatherland and they said it's boring. And honestly, that's kind of like the worst case scenario.

Because if you, I've seen the trailer. And honestly, the trailer is not exactly super exciting either. So that's, that's possible. That's, that's just a movie that's going to be overlooked because despite having like a pretty good pedigree behind it, that it doesn't really move the needle in terms of excitement. All right. So you have picked your last pick,

Fatherland with the 24th overall is the last pick that you get. And now I get two more since that's how the rules work. Since I pick second, I get two picks. Also, I should mention here that the last pick, the 26 overall, that is subject to one of our little bonus rules that I like to call the garbage pick bonus. If the 26 overall pick gets at least one Oscar nomination, you get five bonus. points, a little bargain bonus. And those bonus points go to whoever is holding the title at that point, not necessarily

who picked it, since of course we can make as many trades as we want throughout the season. But that means that the safe strategy is to save whichever movie I am most confident will get a nomination in any Oscars category for 26. So it would make sense for me to get a little bit more creative and a little bit more uncertain with the 25th in comparison. And I'm not too sure how I'm going to approach this, to be honest, but let's do it this way. With my 25th overall pick, I'm going to take,

I think they're calling it the continuing misadventures of Cliff Booth. Is that what they're calling the movie these days? The Cliff Booth movie, the Fincher Tarantino Cliff Booth movie. I will take that with the 25th overall pick, largely because it's a Tarantino script, very good chance for to get a nomination for original screenplay. I'm not totally confident at will. We have discussed the screenplay nominations in the past.

I'm not totally confident, but the possibility is there. Other nominations, unlikely, but not out of the question. I don't know about cinematography. It looks very dark, which is the usual Fincher mode now.

Also, I don't know if you saw Craig, but Fincher is ending his deal with Netflix. He's breaking out of Netflix jail. This has been less reported on, but so is Noah Bomba. No, Bomback is also not renewing his contract with Netflix. So this is kind of interesting.

They're free. They are out of streaming prison. Let's get Jay Kelly too. Let's go. I cannot wait for Bomback to get that Barbie too money and just go and just go ham with projects. I want to see Bomback on a stage in like a conference room in San Diego mapping out the release dates for phase two of the Meyerwood store. stories. I look for that.

So anyways, yeah, Cliff Booth is the 25th overall pick. And 26 overall. So like I said, I'm approaching this as pick a movie that will get a Oscar nominations from amongst whatever is left. And there are so many directions I could go with this. Like there are so many, there are so many movies that I'm like, yeah, that'll probably get a nomination. But which one of my most confident about?

I feel like I had a really good idea. and then I just forgot what it was. Oh, yeah, I remember what it was. Like, part of me wants to just kind of be a little cute with it and be like, yeah, backrooms is getting production design. Let's take backrooms. I think it's getting production design. Like, they built crazy sets for the movie.

That sounds like it makes sense. But that might be getting a little too cute because maybe it'll miss and I'll just look like an idiot. So with 26 overall, give me Minotaur. Okay. Give me Minotar because I feel very confident that it's getting a best international feature nomination. Okay.

I like that. Is it as safe as some other movies? Like, there are other like cute picks I'm thinking like, yeah, I think I love boosters as getting a costume design nomination. But again, that's like being cutesy with it.

Should I maybe have gone with like the last living pickpocket in New York? Because people seem to expect John Tutero to get an acting nomination. Maybe, but I did it. So, you know, whatever. Let's go with Minotar. Probably not any nominations outside of international feature,

but I feel strongly enough about it getting international feature. And I like having those international titles in there that I think it's worth rolling the dice on my plus five garbage pick bonus. And that concludes all 26 picks. They have all been made. We do have a couple little bonus games that we've got to play before we wrap up here, Craig. But before we do that, I just want to take a little pause here and ask you if there's any looking at these lineups here. I see I see me have them written down. I have them written down.

Yeah. Do you want to make any trades before we continue? I've got one trade midway through. Because I'm just going to take a minute to look at these rosters here. Okay, let's pause for review. You know, I'm pretty happy with my roster right now. Yeah. But I am open to discussion if you see something that you like.

All right, hold on. Yeah, I don't mind the trade that we made. Like I said, I think you made really good use of the picks you got, but I'm happy I got behemoth, even if I don't feel, as bullish as I used to about the movie. Like, could Pedro Pascal get into best actor? Like, I doubt it, but it could happen. There's, like, there's potential there.

I'm looking at yours and like, what's a value pick that I kind of really want here? You know what? I'm good with my roster for now. For now. I might think of a trade later and then we'll make a trade call. If we make a trade call, we'll go on camera. We'll do it recorded so that you guys can follow along. I should say, four of you guys follow.

you along. First of all, thank you. Stick around for the whole season. But if you think that we made some boneheaded picks here and you're like, man, you really should have used this pick on that movie instead. Drop a comment. Put your comment where your mouth is. It'll be easy to say that in three months time. But are you smarter than us right now? You very well might be. Like we are just a couple of chuds on the internet who find this fun. But prove it, prove it. You know, tell us where we're wrong. Tell us what mistakes we made. And then we'll see months down the line who was actually better at this game. If any of you social media users think we're in for a reckoning with our picks here by omitting a certain sorkin, let us know in the comments. Yeah.

Yeah. You know what? Let's just do it. A quick lightning round before we move on. What are the most shocking titles that we did not draft for you? I mean, I feel like the biggest one is maybe social reckoning. How about artificial? Speaking of.

Yeah. I mean, artificial feels like. a better, a better pick at this point than, uh, the social reckoning. So, and I should say that artificial is getting its world premiere at the New York Film Festival tonight as we're recording this. So like by the time you're listening to the show, you'll already know what the reaction was if you're following along to the world premiere of artificial. We don't know yet because it's happening like in a few hours. Yeah, I was looking for a, I hate Monday's joke for Andrew Garfield, but I don't have one. Um, I, I, I, I, I, I, I,

I do think that there's definitely more potential for artificial than there is for social reckoning. This movie has been in the trailers or the trailer for this movie has been in like everywhere. And it is more annoying than the marketing campaign for Digger, in my opinion. It looks, it looks so bad to me. I don't know. Maybe maybe I know that I'm not alone in that. But yeah, what do you think about social reckoning? That's a more interesting one.

It's an interesting one, but as I've said before on the show, I feel like the emergence of artificial is going to quash the social reckoning because people are going to be a lot more excited about artificial than they are about the social reckoning. Though I could see neither movie getting any Oscar nominations, obviously. Otherwise, I would have picked one of them. You know, it wouldn't be shocking if they did. The social reckoning is a storking script. So that's that's best shot is getting the script. At one point, I thought we were going to see Mikey Madison in the best actress conversation. It could still happen, but it feels very unlikely at this point.

I do actually really regret one of my picks right now. And I'm, so I should say that we're allowed to drop a title and replace it with another title at two points of our choosing during the preseason phase, so up until December 3rd. And then we get to do that one more time during the regular season starting December 4th. I'm feeling enough remorse about one of my picks that I'm considering burning one of my drop in picks right now, but that might be very very, stupid to do it this early. The thing is about the timing of that is that if you think that there is like value, too much value left out there, you don't want to let the other person jump on it before you do.

And so I'm not going to do it right now. But I'm starting to think that with my last pick, I made a bonehead move when there is like a more obvious choice out there. Okay. I don't know what you could be referring to, but I guess we'll, I guess we'll see. Yeah. I might do this later, but I'm not going to do this right now. It probably would be like really stupid to burn one of those because we have two

over a two month period. I might want to be a little more more strategic. Part of the reason why we have those drop in picks is I wanted to limit it because I want us to be like held accountable for our picks. I want us to part of the fun of this is to see how much things change over time. And I don't want us to just be able to erase our mistakes. I want us to live with our mistakes. We're being honest here.

We're holding ourselves accountable. But because there are. going to be movies that unexpectedly surge later on that happens every year. We're doing this very early. There is at least a possibility for some of us to jump on some of these movies. So I might want to hold on to that option a little bit longer and see if there isn't a more valuable use of that. So I'm going to stick with this lineup for now. So before we wrap things up, there are a couple bonuses that are in play. One of the bonuses, like I mentioned, is the garbage pick value bonus. So the 26 overall pick, which is now Minotar, is worth an extra five bonus points if it gets any

Oscar nomination. Another bonus, and this is a fun one, is called the Hater bonus. That's what I call it anyways. Pick a movie that was picked top 10 that you think will get zero Oscar nominations. We each get to do this, though I get to go first because that's because I'm the second picker. And you get eight bonus picks on the day that Oscar nominations are announced. if you are right about your pick, if you are right that this movie that we thought

was a top 10 overall pick actually gets zero Oscar nominations. Should we do this? Yeah, let's do it. So I got to go first. And look, I did use the 10th overall pick on Digger. So that kind of feels like the smart money just based on what we've been saying.

But looking at this lineup, I mean, I assume if I don't use my choice on Digger, you're probably going to use it on Digger. but I'm not even sure if that's where I want to go. The thing is about this. So like top 10 overall, it doesn't matter whether I picked or you picked. Like you can play both sides of a title.

You can have a title that you picked in the top 10 and still want to hedge your bets and try to get value if it strikes out completely at the Oscars. The thing is about Digger, I really see it getting cinematography, if nothing else. So I feel like getting zero is like not super like. And I feel like my titles are more.

vulnerable than yours. Maybe that's just an indication that I didn't pick as well as you did because I'm looking at like the top five movies that you picked and I'm like, yeah, all these are getting nominations, of course. And I'm looking at it and I'm like, yeah, I can see that not getting one. Maybe I, maybe I much like

an arrow to swung a little too big. You know, I'm not going to use my pick on digger. I'm going to use it on I play Rocky. I'm going to hedge my bets and say that I play Rocky is the most likely in the top 10, which I used with a six overall pick that is nonetheless the most likely in the top 10 to get zero Oscar nominations. I can very much see that happening. I feel like there's a pretty wide range of wiggle room there. So that's what I'll use. Craig, what are you using your pick on? So I am also not going to

use it on Digger and also going to use it on one of yours. Club Kit, I see a world where that doesn't get anything. Sure. I just feel like the, um, there's, more room for digger in more categories to get a nomination. Whereas Club Kid feels like it's definitely got a high upside, but it kind of needs things to go its way or risk falling off the radar completely. So I think that A24 is the distributor for Club Kid as well. And they have a lot of priorities this award season. So they have the invite.

They've got the debut. They've got you can see everything, which I feel are all ahead of ClubKid. And I think that it's possible that even Primetime is ahead of ClubKid in terms of the priorities as well just because of the R. Patty. So I think that there is a world where ClubKid miss it. Yeah. It's not an unreasonable argument. There is a decent amount of sunk cost in ClubKit,

just in the sense that they did not produce the movie, but they spent a lot to acquire it out of Khan. It was the biggest bidding war in Khan. And I think it was maybe north of 20 million. I can't remember. But it was a pretty significant figure that they paid to acquire the rights for Club Kit. There was a bidding war. So multiple studios, including Focus and Netflix,

saw this as a movie that had a lot of potential and a lot of people wanted to acquire it. That's part of the reason. that plus the glowing reviews, of course, and I already made the case for why I think it could have broad appeal is one reason why I think that A24 is not going to ignore it. I think they are going to promote it. And I think, and I feel a little more safe about that than I do about I play Rocky. Even though I predict I play Rocky higher because I think the ceiling might be higher potentially. I feel still very strongly about ClubKit, even though we're missing a lot of information in terms of how it's going to, how wide it's going to be released, how that's going to be released, how that's going to. kind of roll out. But yeah, not a bad pick on your part at all, I don't think. We also have an actor's bonus where we each get to pick one actor and they are worth, if we're holding that actor, they are worth one points for every nomination. They get two points for every win on Oscars. It is three points for nomination, six points for a win. We did this last year with, we each

did two actors, one male and one female, where we're reducing it to just one actor. So no distinction is made between male or female or lead or supporting. Any acting category is in play. Once again, I get to go first as the second picker. So I want to pick the safest choice for somebody who's going to get nominations and potentially eventually wins. I could approach this in a lot of different ways. There are a few guys in the best actor race that feel like very safe things at this fight.

But I don't think that's where I'm going to take this. I used this bonus last year. Well, one of my two picks was to go with Amy Madigan for weapons because it just felt like a safe, clever pick, I guess, for supporting actress. And that ended up working well for me. Of course, she won Best Supporting Actress on Oscars Night. I'm going to go with this in a similar direction with this. I'm going to go with the Best Supporting Actress Contender. I'm going to go with Samantha Morton.

I'm going to take Samantha Morton. as the one that I think is the safest pick to get nominations and wins throughout the season. Well, the audience clapometer for Christopher Nolan agree. She had the longest standing ovation at his screening since Heath Ledger, if I'm recalling my news from earlier this season. So I think that that is a pretty good pick. I'm going to go maybe. I don't know whether this is playing it safe or taking a risk,

but I think either way, it's fun. I am going to lock the cruise missiles because we're going with Penelope Cruz. Oh, fake out there. Yeah, I think that she has, she's in La Bolanegra, and she's also in the invite and there's buzz around both of those performances. The way that we phrased the, the description of this. We did not say you have to pick a specific performance in a specific movie, just the name of an actor.

So, yeah, that could make sense to hedge your bets. I am going, going in that direction. All right. Interesting. Interesting. That's a pretty good one. I like that. Nice.

Yeah, that about covers at all, man. Did anything surprise you about this process? I feel like, I mean, there's probably, like, there's probably going to be one. or two films that pop and we're going to look dumb for not having picked them. But that's inevitable. And one of us will try to jump on those titles once it starts surging. What's interesting is, like, I feel like it's more likely that we'll have something on our roster that we're going to look stupid for happen. I feel like that's what it, that happened to me last year. So famously holding. Is this thing on? I'm never going to let you. I'm never going to let you. I'm never going to

let that go away. We're going to be like 85 year old man and I'm going to be like, hey, remember what you picked is this thing on in their Oscars trip? I had is this thing on? I had the Testament of Anne Lee, which like I feel no shame about that still. And Jay Kelly was another one that I had. So I feel like it's more likely we're going to see titles on our roster evaporates. And with with the depth that we have, I would be very interested to see what kind of surprises could emerge now. Yeah, yeah. I mean, look, it's a long season.

A lot is going to change. And that's part of the fun of doing it. That's why I want to do it early so that we can we can see how this all changes out. And of course, I remind you once again, if you're listening, if you think you're smart and there and us, please tell us what changes we should have made here. I really want to, I really want to track that too, not just track our choices, but track your choices too. All right. Should we get out there, Craig? Yeah.

Awesome. So we'll be back next week. with another show about the awards race and Hollywood history and everything about cinema viewed through this silly keyhole of the Oscars and the awards. We'll have more news and updates and who knows what kind of feature segments, but we will also be giving updates on this fantasy race. As we move through the preseason, I'm personally going to start stewing over potential trades to offer you, Craig. So we might have a segment in each show where we have. trades on offer because we've got a lot of titles here and there's a lot of possibilities for for proposals to make so we'll see you next week on oscars outsider my name is dylan

ferguson i uh occasionally write about movies on substack you can just look for my name d y l a and ferguson i haven't written anything in a while but i hope to get something new out there pretty soon and craig midwadir krag thanks again any final words to leave our listeners with no let us know what you would have put on your your roster Is our order way out of whack? Is the draft order way out of whack? Did we draft something way higher than you expected? I think there's a case to be made on some of these that they went a lot higher than I would have expected.

So, yeah, let us know what you think about our picks. Yeah, and which movies are we totally stupid for not drafting at all? Tell us that, please. I'm feeling stupid about Coyote versus Acme, so I might pick that one up. All right. I'm probably not going to compete with you on that. As you know, which is why you just said it out loud. Listen, I watch this and I like I love this movie.

I was like very surprised by it. So it's definitely like it's a big recommend for me. But I saw news that it was like it had enough animation to qualify within the animation category. Do they like measure like how many frames? have animated elements? Like, how does that work? I have no idea. Because, yeah, you know what?

I feel like that becomes a philosophical question. Because, like, I'm sure Avengers Doomsday has, like, virtually every frame has technically animation in it. What's stopping that from being in the category? I don't know. Yeah. So. Maybe a topic to cover someday.

Yeah, definitely. I think that this had a great screenplay as well. So I would love to see, I feel, be so inspired to give that a screenplay nomination. but yeah and you know maybe an acting nomination for coyote who's fantastic could be the first canine since Rintin to get Oscars votes we'll see a bit a bit of a deep cut for Warner Brothers fans out there RIP Warner Brothers we'll leave it on that note all right guys thanks for listening don't forget to comment like subscribe all that good stuff and we'll see you next week on Oscar's Outsider.