Piers Morgan Uncensored - “It’s Gonna Be a BLOODBATH” Midterm Elections Predictions With Piers Morgan | Feat Prof Jiang

Episode Date: October 15, 2026

Piers Morgan Uncensored is proudly independent and sponsored by: Ethos: Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/PIERS. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Trustpilot rating as of 8/1/2026. The US midterm elections are fast approaching, and the stakes could hardly be higher for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. With polls painting a grim picture for the president, could his second term be heading towards political gridlock, scandal and even impeachment? But polls have been wrong before, particularly when it comes to Trump. Just ask Republican pollster Frank Luntz, who famously predicted a Kamala Harris victory on this show, or Professor Allan Lichtman, whose renowned 'Keys Method' also failed to call the last presidential election correctly. So, with the midterms looming, we're taking a different approach to predicting the outcome. Instead of relying on traditional polling or political forecasting models, we're turning to prediction markets, including Polymarket, to see what the money says about the battle for control of Congress. Are prediction markets a more reliable guide to the political future? Can the wisdom of the crowd outperform the pollsters and pundits? And what do the latest market signals tell us about Trump's prospects as Republicans brace for a potentially bruising election? Piers Morgan is first joined by Brian Kilmeade, author of Uniting the States: Six Crucial Moments That Forged the American Miracle, before welcoming a panel featuring Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace; Professor Jiang, game theorist and host of Predictive History; Lydia Moynihan, New York Post correspondent and commentator; Joe Walsh, host of Social Contract and former Republican Congressman; and Rich Baris, pollster at The People’s Pundit, to debate the stakes of the upcoming US midterm elections and what prediction markets reveal about the political outlook for Donald Trump and the Republican Party. https://polymarket.us/midterms Download the Polymarket App today. Deposit $10 and get $25 with code "UNCENSORED" https://app.polymarket.us/S8ac/PIERS50 00:00 Introduction 01:00 Brian Kilmeade joins Uncensored 02:00 Brian Kilmeade talks to Piers about his new book ‘Uniting The States’ 05:10 The monarchy and Donald Trump 08:30 AD: ETHOS: Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/PIERS. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Trustpilot rating as of 8/1/2026. 09:30 Brian: They’re gonna study Donald Trump forever’ 12:15 Brian’s big debate on Fox & Friends over the Trump-Putin diesel deal 18:01 Brian on doing stand up comedy for 10 years 22:58 Piers’ monologue on the upcoming U.S. midterms 25:27 The panel to debate what the prediction market is saying about the U.S. midterms 27:50 Rep. Nancy Mace on the bloodbath the Republicans are going to see 29:14 Professor Jiang gives his predictions on the U.S. midterms 31:35 Joe Walsh on the role of AI in the midterm elections 33:33 Lydia Moynihan’s analysis on the potential of a Republican bloodbath in the midterms 35:18 POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate Election Winner - https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-senate-election-winner 37:28 Will Abdul El Sayed win? 38:10 Professor Jiang on dark money flowing into this election 39:30 ‘The People’s Pundit’ Rich Baris joins the discussion and gives his assessment 39:51 POLYMARKET: Texas Senate Election Winner - https://polymarket.com/event/texas-senate-election-winner 40:15 Elon Musk backing Paxton and James Talarico’s chances 45:05 POLYMARKET: Maine Senate Election Winner - https://polymarket.com/event/maine-senate-election-winner 47:16 POLYMARKET: South Carolina Senate Election Winner - https://polymarket.com/event/south-carolina-senate-election-winner 47:43 Lydia Moynihan on Darline Graham Nordone 52:37 If the Republicans lose, what does that mean for Trumpism in 2028? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The bloodbath that Republicans are going to see this year started with Epstein, and it's going to end with the Iran War. Unpopular war leads to defeat for the incumbent party 100% of the time. It's going to be a bloodbath, beers. It's not just his war, but his tariffs. That was all on him. What are you predicting for the midterm? I have absolutely no idea. I know what the folks are saying.

I love the honesty, Professor Zhang. No bullshit. I have actually no idea. I didn't know if the mercantress actually happened. What do you mean? There could be an October surprise. There may be a mass casualty event during this war that will compel a very strong American response.

Well, coming up the definitive, uncensored midterms prediction panel, many of a reputation's been torched by ill-fated predictions on this show. But can anyone really get it wrong this time? We'll find out. And joining us first is the host of Fox and Friends and the author of Uniting the States, six crucial moments that forged the American miracle. Brian Kilmey.

Well, the tables are finally turned. where I get to grill you, Kill Mead, in an unscensit manner. How nervous are you right now? Well, put it this way. I've been training, I've been studying your tapes, they go back generations. I am ready for this moment. I've talked to your family members, enemies and friends.

I am ready. Well, let's see how ready you are, because you've written this book, a very interesting book called Uniting Mistakes, six crucial moments that forged the American miracle. Now, this is your seventh history book. you're a bit of a historian, and they're all very readable. I've enjoyed them.

But you say in the book, you cover the Boston Massacre, Washington's Battlefield Strategy, the Battle of New Orleans, Louisiana Purchase, Shea's Rebellion, and John Quincy Adams fight against slavery. Three of them, so half of the battles you've chosen involve you as a nation fighting the British. You even had a fourth one, because if it wasn't the fear of another war,

Napoleon was getting ready for it with Britain, Louisiana purchase probably wouldn't have taken place. So I would even add that. So to me, early days in America, and I've talked to, I've talked to you about this, and I've talked to other people of British descent, and they say, you know, we don't consider the revolution a big of a deal. You guys are focused on it. But for us, it's a huge deal. And for me, it happened all around me. I mean, it happened to Long Island, the battle in the Long Island. It happened in Brooklyn. It happened in Boston. It happened in Virginia. I'm there all the time playing your favorite sports soccer and then coaching years later. And what I would always do is go to the sites of Washington's birth and the

Battle of Bunker Hill and all these things. So I had the passion for it. And I just didn't want to make this a war book. To me, it was at different moments in our past as I salute 250 years of us, of what made our country, what it does today and how fortuitous we were for it to happen. Look had to break our way so often that it plays into anyone who says that America, the idea and the country was divinely inspired. What do you think the idea of America really is, when you've given it a lot of thought? Okay. The non-Harvard, the non-Oxford thought, this is what I really have gone to know what it is.

Because I really had to get a sense of leaving America and understand what else was going on in the world. It's an opportunity to achieve freedom and liberty and whatever your potential is as a human being, the opportunity to achieve that, no guaranteed outcomes, but opportunity. And I'm not talking about capitalism. Maybe your achievement is to be the greatest person of all time. Maybe you always want to be a farmer and you were born to a shopkeeper back then. Maybe you always want to be a pilot. But you don't know anybody as a pilot. Not in our system, it's not going to work. The idea that you as a human being had an opportunity to fulfill your destiny, your personal potential,

that's what America is. But with that is the sense of community. where it's not just about Brian Kilme to Pierce Morgan. It's about taking care of your neighbor, a sense of ethics, taking care of your community, a sense of community, since you're taking care of your country, a sense of patriotism. So collectively, an opportunity for man to achieve perfection as close as possible, morally, spiritually, and economically. And I did not know, because you only learn one thing in America in social studies,

and maybe you two, can you get it from the American perspective? But when you take a jog around the world at the time leading up to that, that idea was pretty new. And these people called kings, queens, and absolute monarchs didn't love the idea of freedom for all and liberty. And they were pushing back on it. Well, we have people, like we look at it, Donald Trump is a longtime friend of both of us. Yeah, there's a sense of monarchical rule about Trump in a way. You know, I always, much as he would not, I mean, he does, he loves the royal family, his family, his mother, he does. Huge, huge monarchist.

But I think if Trump could bring back the British monarchy tomorrow and be the king, he'd absolutely love it. In a way, he would. By the way, he likes you better. Know that about it. Well, yeah. I guess the apprentice you really bonded. And I know what you're going to say, he can't blame him. So, I would think this.

I'll tell you on that, you know, he, when I became the severally apprentice, the first one, 2008. And I knocked out all the Americans, one by one, including finally in the semi-final, I knocked out Lennox Lewis. It was like, bang, it was British, but bang, off he went. And Trump, in the live finale, said, Pierre's he said, you're tough, you're ruthless, you're possibly brilliant, I don't know, but you beat the hell of everyone,

and you're my celebrity apprentice. And then when he won the presidency, eight years later, I sent him a note, Donald, you're tough, you're ruthless, you're possibly brilliant, I don't know, but you beat the hell of everyone, and you're the President of the United States. It was a long eight years from the apprentice boardroom to him getting to the White House.

Amazing story, which is how I got to know him and everything else. Here's why the brilliance of your question is. You're right. Trump wants power. You know what else wanted power? Bush, Clinton, Obama. These do it differently. They don't go out in front of the microphones and arbitrarily say it.

I want to build a ballroom. I want to do this. But within our system is built to push pull and legislate, and it drives Trump nuts. What do you say the other day? It's the Supreme Court. I put these guys in the Supreme Court. They don't rule my direction.

I made you three huge mistakes. Ladies and gentlemen, drum roll, please. That's the setup of the American democracy. It's built to frustrate. So there is no king and queen. If he said, I am disbanding Congress, I would say, you're right, he wants to be an autocrat. But what he tries is he's harangues, he looks to go around. You don't look to go around?

President Obama. But he's so eloquent, so well-spoken, he's so composed and so cool dancing with Ellen and doing his thing. You go, that guy can't be that offensive. He's doing the same thing as Trump. Only Trump pitches right in the face. And Obama dances like... It's very true that. I never bought into the Obama saintly thing because if you study his record, he kept Guantanamo Bay open when he said he would close it.

He waged illegal drone programs. He dropped more bombs in a calendar year than any other American president. You know, he blinked with Putin in Syria and let Putin in there. He did lots of things he deported over 3 million people, way more than Trump has ever done pro rata per year. So there were lots of things about Obama, which when I explained them to my liberal friends, I'm like, really? I didn't know that.

Because he wasn't as offensive rhetorically to them. So he didn't wind them up the same way. He did all the sort of dignity of the office stuff very well. Trump doesn't care about that. And that's why he got elected and why he's so unpopular with so many Americans as well. He's both. He's the ultimate, what we would call Marmite figure in the UK.

You familiar with Marmite? It's a bit like you. No, can you help me? Can you help me with that? Yeah, it's a rather distasteful, yeast-based product which people either love or hate. I happen to love it in the same way I love you. Many people, as you know, find you hideously distasteful.

That's the problem with Marmite. You're either in it or into the Marmite thing and taste, or you're not. Trump is like that. You don't meet many people who go, you know, I don't know what to think about Donald Trump. They all know what to think. They love him or they hate him. Nobody likes thinking about life insurance,

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they're going to study him for generations. He's making us everything about, you know, I remember I really was pushed. I was on the air, and we didn't know what was happening with pushing gore. I don't know where you were at that point in Pierce, but we didn't know how the hell. you break a deadlock election. You know, we're trying to scramble, you know, constitutionally, get a lawyer on the phone.

How do we figure this out? What about Florida? It's in dispute. We really had uncharted ground. You know, after January 6th, the same thing. As you know, I don't make any excuses for it. I don't think it was no big deal. I think it was a big deal.

Yeah. All right? Huge deal. Big mistake for the president's sake. Go over there. I don't think he wanted what he wanted. I don't want to debate that, but I don't soft pedal that.

Yeah. But they're going to study president forever. And then they overdid it. And I talked to you about this on and off camera with going after him, legally made the president. Number one, they tried to question his toughness. He's the toughest guy around. He's not going to break.

They tried to bankrupt him. They almost did. Not going to break. And then tried to kill him. So he's not going to break. But it made me really pressed. They're going to study Trump for generations and they're going to study the power presidency.

There's going to be different presidents who are going to be big thinkers. We're not going to know how to manipulate Washington. There's going to be other people that are just going to be figure out a way, legislatively to get things done. You know what I hope we go through Pierce and you guys go through too? Is that we go through an era of compromise where I go as hard as I can

at President Pierce Morgan. Right? And then in the end, I try to get as much as I can and I do a deal. I am so tired of seeing people win an election. I totally agree. Jamthing down our throats and then wait for the next election. I totally agree. I think we've lost that ability in public life.

And it's so dispiriting. Everyone takes their tribal silo. They don't want to come out of it. They won't admit any wrongdoing on their side. They only see it in the other side. Refusing to compromise, refusing to do deals, refusing to come together in the way that countries used to. We've had the same thing in Britain.

In a way, Trump broke it in America because of the passionate reaction to him, by the way. Brexit over here did it for us where people, you know, it was the first time I could remember people falling out with family members. you know, actually not inviting family around for Christmas or Thanksgiving. You know, we had it over Brexit in the UK. You've had the same phenomenon over Trump in America.

And it's really sad because I never doubt for a moment Trump loves America or, you know, wants the best for the country. I disagree with some of the ways he goes about it. And I agree with other ways. And I'm intellectually honest enough to call out both. You're the same. And actually, what's really interesting about talking to you today is you had a big blow-up moment on social media a few days ago, when on Fox and Friends, you had a big debate with one of your co-hosts on Rachel Campos Duffy on Ukraine and the Trump-Russian diesel deal.

And we've got a clip of this. I want to show viewers a bit of this. So Zelensky's frustrated because now all this money is going to flow into Russia who started this whole war, unprovoked, they're the bad guys, and there is no way Zelensky turned down any plausible deal. In fact, since that time, when they told him he was going to lose the Donbos, he has gained back, pushing to the Donbos. Are you saying that there were not peace efforts that were not... There was no plausible, practical peace effort

that Vladimir Putin would participate in, effectively, that would end this war. There's one person who's responsible. Vladimir Putin, that is it. And he's getting his ass kicked. You know, I cheered when I watched that because not for the first time, you were not afraid to express your own opinion,

even if it wasn't the one held by your colleagues. Secondly, because I go on Fox News a lot and really enjoy it, and that was a good example of Fox News at its best, where you do have very spirited debate sometimes about big issues of the day. You're not all blindly singing from the same song sheet as I see on many other networks. So I really like it when you guys go at it like that. Because we're friends.

I just thought you were right. You know, in the end, in the end, you were right. Putin is an evil dictator, and the moment you deviate from that view, that's why I was so pissed off with Trump when he did the diesel thing because it's pure tokenism. It doesn't make any difference materially.

But he just sends a signal that he somehow, right, you know, I'm done with Ukraine, I'm in with Vladimir Putin. Why would he want to do that? I don't know. It's a day and a half of diesel. You know, I'm not Mr. Energy guy,

but, you know, five and a half, 500 million tons of diesel sounds like a lot, but it's not. And they're not to blame for the price of diesel, it's Iran. Iran blowing up the Gulf state neighbors refineries. They have very little to do with it.

Yeah, no, I agree. I mean, look, and that would bring me around to, it's interesting with the midterms coming, isn't it? Because if, as people think may well happen, the Republicans lose the House and the Senate. It's an if on the Senate. I think the House, both people think, is probably gone.

Yeah, I would chart it back not to what Trump did when he first came back into power, because a lot of the stuff he did was really effective, shutting the border and executive orders and taking all the woke crap and everything else. It would probably come down to the decision to attack Iran and all the fallout from that, particularly on domestic prices and cost of living.

Would you see it like that if he ends up losing the whole of Congress? Would you see it as that being the catalyst? Because it's extended for eight months instead of eight weeks or eight days, sure. But the objective I get. You know, people say it's a war of choice, not really. For 47 years, this has been nonstop. I mean, literally, every day I come, I'm different from you, Pierce. I come to work.

I do tabs, 1970-style tabs on all the different topics that we have. Because I have no idea what the show is going to be, from my radio show to the TV show, and I do One Nation on Sundays, and they ask me to fill in for Jesse or whatever. And I just go, whatever these producers want, I'm like, okay, you want to go. Every day, Iran's on there. Iran killed 603 of our guys during the Iraq War. They never paid the price. They are the hub behind the blowing up of Israel.

They are behind Hamas, Hezbo, Islamic jihad. They were behind Assad that keep them in power to massacre millions of people on a regular basis. They are the Houthi, the power behind the Houthis. They are the problem. So the president saw the massacre in January, and these people rose up unarmed. And they literally killed 10, 20, 30, 40,000 of them. And they're still hanging them on a daily basis. he took his shot and he blew up two levels, maybe three levels of their government.

And they're not ready to go yet. And here we are in an election. And their response has been, we can't beat America, but we can make them pay with energy. But in the long run, it's a good move. In the short run, it's not a great political move because it forced the prices of groceries and gas and oil. But what Trump has on his side is if his policies are going to get gas and oil down to $2.89 if you do the convert. version of Britain really quick because he drills, he uses pipelines, he fracks, he cuts deals, the Venezuela situation, he refines the investment, it's all there.

So what it happens is it's being strained by the straight. But in the big picture, that's a risk he took. The other thing he's going to have is they're pushing it now with the Houthi rebels in Saudi Arabia and trying to get the price over $100 a barrel. They're going to pay the price after the midterms. they have a strategy in place, the IDF is going to be enacted, and I think they're going to finish him off for good.

And this is their moment, this was their moment to come to the table and disarm and denuclear and delucrify, or whatever the correct word is, and they're not going to do it. So it was the decision, but I don't necessarily think it's the wrong decision. I think it was the hardest decision he ever made.

I'm sure that's true. I think it will turn out to be the wrong decision, not because I want to, stand up for Iran. I think they're an awful, terrible regime, and I'd be very glad to see the back of them. I think the problem is, as he's discovered, they've worked out if you control these straits of water through which energy flows, you can basically screw up the world's energy market, and it's a problem that they now know that, and the hooties are trying the same thing and so on. I just want to end, Brian, because on your website, it says you spent 10 years doing stand-up comedy. You hide that so well.

You were a funny guy, right? But what I tried to do is, when I'm trying to break out, and Pierce, you had instant success. I didn't. You were a great writer. I wasn't. But when I got out of college,

I just said, I want to be in front of the camera, sports or news. And the one thing that I said, while I'm waiting for that job, trying to get that great job, I said, what could producers

and news directors not being in control of? And how could I improve? And I said, well, if I could learn to do stand-up on stage, learn to interact with an audience, react to anything on the fly, I would be a better anchor and a host.

And I thought I had a pretty good sense of humor. I had to learn out of write jokes and figure out what my identity was. What was your best joke? So I did it. What was your best joke? Well, I used to do observational humor. And I said, the one thing I would always say is, isn't it a great idea that in the wanted photos in the post office,

they put the fingerprints at the bottom? So many times I think I see this bank robber. and I'm not sure if I recognize him, then I noticed the symmetry and width of his thumb lines and suddenly I'm able to call the cops to be an instant hero. And those are the type of things that would bring the house down. But it just helps you, because you know the format in the morning that you thrive on,

and Fox and Friends, there's a lot of air. You know what, you look in the prompter too. Sometimes it says, sometimes it says, discuss. At which time, I have no idea what Lawrence is going to say, and you're able to kind of feel through. I did a morning show for five years. I thought I had a lot of energy. until I met you, honestly.

I don't think I've ever met anyone who is more of a human juror cell battery that never needs recharging. You are, your work rate is unbelievable, and it always has me. I mean, you do hours in the morning, then you do hours on your radio show, then you do hours of other stuff,

you find time to write endless history books and stuff. Where do you get this from? Well, I have no friends, so no one's asking me to hang out, and number two is I don't golf, and number three, is that of my kids got older. I used to coach them all in soccer and basketball.

Now that they got older, I don't feel guilty if I stay past three, four o'clock. And now Roger Lels, when he ran Fox, said, you do your show, you go home. And then I convinced him to let me do the radio show, and that's it. And then all of a sudden, the new Suzanne Scott has said, if you can help out, help out. And that's what created such a team atmosphere.

Now, Pierce, I'm not putting words in your mouth. But isn't there a team atmosphere in this building? Oh, 100%. So we're all helping each other out. Fox News is the friendliest place I have ever worked. Honestly, it is. And also, I always said to people, you know, I've done a lot of shows there from yours to the Five to Fox and whatever.

No one's ever told me what I should or shouldn't say. I've always been given total free reign to say what the hell I like. And I saw Greg Gutfeld say the same thing. It was the 30th anniversary of Fox last week. And, you know, I'm a big fan because I think you do have a lot of disparate voices on there. obviously by far the most successful channel now. And people who don't really know Fox News sneering it from afar, but I've always really enjoyed appearing on it,

and particularly the free reign you get to be whatever you want to be. Yeah, I mean, I've never seen anyone fit in as well as you. I mean, at the minute I see you in the green room, I feel like I'm in the locker room. You are just so freaking funny, and you're always so demeaning to me. I go, this guy is actually like he knows me my whole life. And this is great.

It actually feels like... So I think it's good. And the first thing you always do is make fun of me. And that kind of... Yeah, but you know what? Because you always laugh. Because you're very... I always think about who are my favorite people.

They're people who not only make me laugh, but can take a joke at themselves. If you can't laugh at yourself, I'm not interested in being that friendly with you. But you're able to do that. Now, admittedly, you have a lot to laugh at with yourself. So there's a lot of material to go out. But you're able to do it.

Brian, it's great to talk to you. You're nice a mistake. Six crucial moments that forge America miracle. It's a cracking book, really interesting analysis based on these battles about what made America. The very great country it is. I'm a massive fan of America, of Americans, even, and this pains me to admit it, even you.

Brian Kilme, one of my favorite people in America. One of my favorite Americans. I'm not afraid to admit it. There are. I've done it. It's out there now forever. I can't retract it. I'm tied with Trump.

I'm tied with Trump. Thank you, very good towards you. have me on on launch week. It really means a lot. Congratulations on all your entrepreneurial success. I watch your podcast all the time. It is always compelling and I can't shut it off. Piers, thanks so much. You know what, one day, Brian, you will be as good as me. You just keep working, son. You put the hours in and it will happen. Please, please. Great to talk to you. Go get them. Thanks, Pierce. Well, the midterm elections are now just weeks away, and they're about as consequential as any that I can remember.

A second Trump presidency, which began with such resounding expectation, could end, as the first one did in gridlock, infamy, even impeachment. It's a final campaign maneuver that's going to go by. Republicans are braced for impact, as for every poll makes pretty grim reading for the president. But it's fair to say, the polls had been wrong before, not least about Donald Trump. The legendary Republican polls to Frank Lund's very memorably called the last presidential election for Kamala Harris on this show. The conversations about people eating dogs and cats, calling the leader of Hungary one of the greatest world leaders,

repeatedly missing the opportunity to focus on inflation and affordability, and the complete inability to present his point of view without completely tearing into Joe Biden, into whomever, I think that this will cost him. Yes, I'm trying to design. if I want to go on record, and the answer is yes. I think that he loses because of this debate performance. That's one of the best pollsters in history. As is Professor Alan Lickman, the pollster's Nostradamus,

fated for his keys method. Well, he got it horribly wrong, too. Here's Cheng Yuga, giving him some uncensored feedback. Brother, you got it wrong. You were preposterously and stupidly wrong. So, okay, all right, can I just finish the goddamn thought ever on this show? No, not if you're perfect. Well, I admitted I was wrong.

I don't need you to call me stupid. Well, on this show, we often convene a predictions panel on the eve of a seismic vote, and this time we tell them to do it differently. Instead of using the polls or the keys, we can look at the prediction markets. Historically, they'd be more accurate than polls on all sorts of questions. Simple reason why is that they create a financial reward for expertise or insight. If you know something or if you've done the homework and think you do, there's a place to put your money where your mouth is and get the rewards.

in that way, a prediction market pulls in polls, instincts, insiders, and all kinds of data points, instead of just opinions. It's what we used to call the wisdom of crowds. Unless you've never watched TV or the internet, you'll be aware that the crowd has become a lot bigger. Polymarket and his rivals now turn up

on all sorts of news and talk shows, including mine, because the data is worth debating. And the real beauty of getting it all on camera is that we get to do another show in a few weeks to examine just how wise the crowd is after all. Joining me now on the panel, Republican Congresswoman Nancy Mace, who's going to be stepping into a special live edition of the Uncensor Den in D.C. on midterms night. Professor Zhang, game theorist and hosts of predictive history.

Lydia Moynihan, the correspondent and commentator for the New York Post, and Joe Walsh, host of the social contract and former Republican congressman. But welcome to all of you. Let's get into what the prediction market is saying about these midterms, because I think it's fair to say. These might well be the most consequential midterm elections in modern times in America. Polymarket says in terms of probability for the U.S. Senate, which could be the crucial battleground, most people seem to think that the Republicans will lose the House,

but the Senate seems to still be up for grabs by either of the parties. Now, for the U.S. Senate midterm winner, Polymarker has Democrats on 61% probability. Republicans at 41%. This prediction market saw a huge flip in mid-September when the Democrats overtook the GOP for the first time since April. So let me start with you, Nancy Mays. Welcome back to Unsensitive. Thank you.

Thank you, Pierce. What do you think is going to happen here? We are in the business of this panel of predictions. So you're all going to be held hostage to fortune by what you say. You're going to quote us later. Yeah, exactly. Please, God, no. There's no hiding place.

But my gut feeling is that I think the Republicans are going to get whacked in these midterms and could well lose both the House and the Senate. And if they do, it will be because of either apathy or rejection by a lot of Republicans or people who voted for Trump in the 2024 election who believed him when he said, I'm not going to meddle in expensive foreign wars, I'm going to focus on getting inflation down, America first, cost of living and so on. And they've seen this year him do the opposite, wage a very expensive, messy war with Iran and see the consequential effect on cost of living and prices at the pump and so on.

I think it could well be as simple as that. He's going to get a bloody nose for what average Americans think has been a flawed war and a very expensive one. Right. And I think you're pretty closer. I think it's both of those as apathy and rejecting what's. been going on. I think it started with Epstein. The bloodbath that Republicans are going to see this year started with Epstein. And it's going to end with the Iran more because the consequences of the Iran war are still dire in South Carolina. Depending on where you fill up, you're still paying over

$4 a gallon for gasoline. When you go to the grocery store, inflation is higher than it's been in a very long time. And the studies are saying it's not going down and actually may be increasing faster than it ever has. And people are really, you know, feeling the pain at the pump. I think the Prediction markets are interesting, the Kalshees and the polymarkets of the world. I think that sentiment is real. The House is definitely gone. I think it'll be tighter than what the polls are saying because the polls have always been a little off. People forget, you know, I look at Paulymarket, I look at Kau Shee.

They even predicted my getting spanked in the governor's race. Like I think that sentiment value is certainly where people are. The polls, I think, are going to be a little bit off. People forget, and I forgot this in my own race, but the MAGA voter, for example, isn't going to vote early and isn't going to tell you who they're voting for when you call them and pull them. They will vote on Election Day and they'll keep that answer to themselves and so when you're where you see races within the margin of error, I think that it could be closer off or maybe the Republican wins, but there's no doubt about it. We're in dire straits right now.

Professor Zhang, welcome back to Unsense. You might well be the nearest, closest living thing to Nostradamus, given your record with predictions. So what are you predicting for the midter? terms? I have absolutely no idea. I know what the polls are saying. I love the honesty, Professor Zhang. No bullshit. I have absolutely no idea.

Giving it to me straight. It's just past two years. I've been thinking very deeply over the midterms, because I know these midterms are the most consequential, because I did predict that Trump would invade Iran, and the American voters would give a verdict on this war during the midterms. But to be probably honest with you, I have absolutely no idea how. how the midterms will go. I don't even know if the midterms will actually happen.

What I will say is that... What you mean? There could be an October surprise. You have this war in the Middle East right now, which is raging. Saudi Arabia is getting pummeled by the Houthis. And it's perfectly possible that the Americans may have to go in to save Saudi Arabia from destruction. It's also entirely possible that there may be a mass casualty event during... during this war that will compel a very strong American response.

And so I think there are a lot of unknowns. And I'm also wondering if after the midterms, there may be an AI bubble collapse, which would compel Congress and the White House to work together to save the American economy. So I think this is an extremely consequential election. I've absolutely no idea what will happen. I mean, it's kind of fascinating, but slightly terrifying, too.

Joe Walsh, I mean, I read a thing today by a journalist in the UK, an eminent business journalist. He'd been in some conference talking about AI. And he said there were senior AI executives. He said to him, they're hoarding cash because they're genuinely concerned that in the next few months, there may be an attack on financial systems which basically paralyzes people's ability to get their money.

I mean, I was reading it. He said it was somebody eminent, and somebody credible who knows a lot about this stuff, genuinely, genuinely concerned enough to start hoarding cash at their home. So there are lots of things Professor Zhang touched on there, but the AI aspect shouldn't be ignored, I think, here about in terms of a mass event. No, you're right, Pierce.

It's a big, scary issue, but we live in a country right now where a Republican Democrat, we don't have serious politicians wanting to address serious issues. Look, the polling could be off, and the polling has always underestimated the Trump voter. Yeah. I agree with Nancy. I tend to follow Polly Market and the prediction markets, Pierce, as you said, because they're putting their money where their mouth is. But look, this is what we know.

I come from the Tea Party. I got elected in that Tea Party wave when the American people were pissed off. I got to tell you, Pierce, the anger. that's in America today singularly focused on what, on Trump, because most voters don't give a damn and don't approve a Democrats either. But the anger at what Trump is doing dwarfs the Tea Party anger. And you know, Pierce, we always overestimate. We always give presidents too much credit on the economy when it's going good. And we blame them too much when it's not going good.

But man, this is all on Trump. this whole elections on Trump, he has single-handedly screwed this economy. You talked about the war. It's not just his war. It was his war, but his tariffs. That was all on him. His mass deportations have had a huge impact on the economy. I think, and Pierce, last point I want to make, it is the economy.

But we've never had a situation like this where we've been bombarded, daily, daily, by videos of masked agents disappearing people off of America's streets. I think that's going to have a profound impact on this election as well. OK, Lydia, welcome back to Uncensored. You've been frowning in a way that if frowns could kill, we'd all be dead. So I take it you don't necessarily subscribe to the view that this could be a Republican bloodbath. What's your analysis? Look, I mean, I think we've all talked about how the polling can often be really off.

And even this year, we've seen how there's been an effort to sort of like sway Republicans and keep them at home. We saw with, for instance, Abdul Al-Sayat, people saying he was going to completely best Haley Stevens, and he eked it out with just a couple thousand votes. So I think a lot of this sort of blackpilling is an effort to keep people at home. I mean, imagine if you told the Knicks in the final, oh, there's no way you can make a comeback, right? At the end of the day, it's about performing as well as you possibly can. And I think at least with the Senate, I think the markets are way overpricing in that Republicans are going to lose. Because if you look at some of those individual races, there are clues that Republicans could make a comeback.

And I think particularly in Michigan, we're saying, for instance, there's actually still very, very early voting, but there are some signs that would suggest Mike Rogers might eke it out. In fact, he's two percentage points ahead right now of Republicans sending in the road votes compared to where Trump was. Well, let me explain. In, in 2024, and I think that's one race that Republicans could absolutely flip. Look, Mike Rogers is getting a new coalition of African Americans and Jews and people who've never voted for a Republican before.

So I think when you look at some of those individual races, you look at Minnesota, I think Michelle Tofoya could flip that seat against Peggy Flanagan. There are signs that are promising for Republicans. Okay. Nancy, Mace, in the Michigan Senate race, according to Polly Market, the Democrat, Abdul al-Said, is 67% predicted to win, with Mike Rogers behind on 33%. I suspect it won't be as wide a margin,

but there's no doubt that Al-Saii has emerged as one of the more charismatic and eloquent figures. on the left. The question is, you know, is America ready to vote for somebody like Abdul al-Said with his background, with his politics, and everything else to be a senator in someone like Michigan? What do you think? Well, I think, you know, seeing the ad that Mike Rogers has out, a new ad tying Abdul al-Said to the Muslim Brotherhood shows you how tall the stakes are in Michigan, how high they are. Here's a guy just two weeks ago. couldn't condemn the IRGC to an Iranian, young Iranian student whose family had to flee Iran from the IRGC,

were persecuted by them. So the stakes are very, very high in Michigan. I think Mike Rogers does eke it out, but I think it's going to be closer than we all wish it would be given it's a candidate like Abdul Al-Said. This is a guy who said he's a physician, but if he doesn't even have a medical license, and if you were to perform some kind of procedure on somebody or give him a script, that would be illegal. So, you know, it's strange to see Abdul get where he is, but he was on Meet the Press this weekend, denying any ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. And all these facts are coming out from his sister posting a couple of years ago. But that's how hard Mike Rogers is fighting to show people who this guy really is, because when he gets on TV, he just says no, or just says a blanket denial for anything you've ever said about him. But Mike Rogers is fighting hard.

I think he wins that one. Professor Zhang, I mean, do you agree with that? I mean, I think that I'll say may well win, actually, because I think he's emerged as a lot. a real dynamic, charismatic figure in American politics. But it's interesting to see the rise of a democratic socialist. And my question, do you think it's because Americans are gravitating to democratic socialism, or is it just an anti-Trump thing? Yeah, I think Abdul El-Said has a very strong chance

of being the first Arab senator. And I think a lot of it is because he's charismatic. And he's touched on an issue that has been a very strong chance. become very dear to the American voter, which is anti-Zionism. He has said many times that America has become too close to Israel. And the fact of the matter is that the vast majority of Americans agree, especially young Americans. There's also a very strong Arab community in Michigan. So I think that he has a very strong possibility of winning.

But one thing that I think that we need to discuss is this election, there's a lot of dark money in this election. There's an estimate from their time to about a billion dollars of dark money is flowing into the midterm elections. And so unless we appreciate how the dark money is flowing, what do you mean for those who don't know what dark money is, what do you mean by that? Dark money just means money that can't be sourced to a particular political organization. So, for example, I can choose to put out an ad endorsing you for the Senate. even though, and you don't need to have knowledge of me doing that. But a billion dollars is flowing.

You also have an issue where algorithms are very powerful. So, for example, we know that AI companies are heavily invested in the midterms. They're spending a lot of money in the midterms. They also have control over these AI algorithms that could steer the election in a certain way. And the example that I would use is the Brazilian election where polls had Lula up, But then in the first round, Flavio Parsonario won by a huge majority. And so we are still trying to assess what happened. But I think that the evangelical vote was a major factor.

Also, another factor were the social media algorithms. So unless we look at the flow of dark money as well as social media algorithms, it's very hard to predict what will actually happen. Yeah. Well, stand by panel. I'm going to bring just briefly, Rich Barris, known as the People's Pundit, his perspective. He's the director of Big Data Poll and author of the...

burn it down. Well, welcome to uncensored. Let's talk about Texas, because here we've got the Democrat, James Salarico, you've got the Republican, Ken Paxton. They're going head to head. Polymarket currently has Tala Rico in the lead on 65% probability of winning. Paxton around 35%. What's interesting here is that you've got the sideshow of Elon Musk putting in, I think I read recently, quarter of a billion dollars or more into trying to shore up Paxton here. Can that make any difference of this stage, or do you think that Talarico is steaming to victory? Well, first, peers, thanks for having me. It's good to be here. I appreciate it. And I just want to get out real quick there. It's true. A lot of pollsters have missed the Trump vote,

miss the MAGA vote. We have not. I mean, this is how I cut my teeth doing this. So I just want to make that clear going in, Texas, look, when the polls are this close guys, yes, money matters. But that's when the fundamentals really matter to. I mean, we're looking at maybe a point or two in Texas, I feel better about Paxton's chances now than I did maybe three weeks ago. Some of that has to do with money, sure. The other part is just a simple fact that what people with the panelists were talking about, disaffection and even defection. There's a high number of defections in a lot of these states. People have to understand that Trump did not win in 24 with a typical Republican coalition. And what we're going to see is that those very voters

that don't typically vote Republican are the ones who are defecting. And we could see the Missouri is 2016. The Obama Trump voter was all over the Midwest, but Texas is different because Texas has a ton of non-white voters who backed Donald Trump, black men, and Hispanics, of course, all through the border counties, and Paxton struggling with them. It's a coin toss. And I know that's a bit of a cop-out answer, peers, but it's true. It's a coin toss because Republicans have the votes if they get them out. The problem is everyone is so teed off about the war. I mean, look, just so everybody understands this, even if Donald Trump did not spend a decade plus promising never to start another new war in the Middle East, unpopular war leads to defeat for the incumbent party 100% of the

time. So when I say fundamentals matter, they matter. If the polls are close, don't bet against them. So, you know, if you were to put your prediction hat on for the day after the midterms, what do you think is going to happen? It's going to be a bloodbath. It's going to be a bloodbath, I mean, the House is gone. The Senate, it's just a question of how many seats at this point. And is there a scenario where Republicans could hold on with Vance's vote? Sure. I heard somebody before bring up Minnesota.

We even had Telfoyal only two points behind in Minnesota. The problem, again, was the undecided vote. Very liberal, very urban twin cities. And by the way, this week, they started to break. And you can see Flanagan start to widen her lead now. And now it's up to four in our polling. So I just don't see many pick up opportunities outside of Michigan. I hear that other panelists loud and clear.

I do think that's going to be a test. The problem with El Saeed, how it's like a reverse of MAGA, you have all of these voters who would not vote for Haley Stevens if she was the nominee, probably. That's the truth. They'd probably sit home and do nothing. But because it's Al Saeed, he's going to get them out. Now, the question is, if he consolidates his base, it probably won't be that close. In all honesty, Republicans haven't won a U.S. Senate seat in the state of Michigan's

1994. They lost it after one term. And by the way, they lost it to Debbie Staventau. Before that, you have to go back to 1972. The truth is the only thing that really characterizes, you know, Michigan as a battleground state is that Donald Trump has won it. Republicans stink at winning Michigan. It's just a fact. And I think people didn't take seriously enough what the consequences would be for whatever you want to call it, whatever word you want to use, for not nurturing this coalition. These were voters that voted for Trump. They did not vote for you, Republicans. And now you have given them no reason to keep to stay.

And a lot of them were already ancestral Democrats or first time voters. They're just as happy to go back and sit home. Socialism doesn't scare them at all. It really doesn't. We were just talking to a voter earlier. And he just said the same thing. He's like, why would I be afraid of Democrats and socialism? Republicans have no problems with it when it ends at the, the, the, the, the,

the short, you know, the border's edge when it's foreign money, foreign aid, and it ends on the corner of Wall Street and broad. I mean, it's just true. I mean, Republicans have lost a lot of credibility here, and they're suffering from this credibility gap. So, you know, it really, it muffles the message when you're trying to say, look out for El Cayed, he's radical. All they hear is, you started a new war. And that's the way voters are. Rich Barris, great to have your own sense. Thank you very much. All the best, Pierce. Come to Joe Walsh.

I mean, my gut feeling is going to be a bit of a bloodbath. And there's probably not much Donald Trump can do about it because the war in Iran is not going to end before the midterms. The Iranians have absolutely no incentive to do that. And the financial issues can't be resolved in three weeks, right? So he is where he is with this. Historically, also often the incumbent president, particularly if they've done a term before as he's done,

They often get whacked in the midterm the second time round. So all the points are that it's going to be a difficult night for him. The main Senate election race is interesting. You've got Republican Susan Collins on 40%, Democrat, Troy Jackson on 60% in the polymarket predictions. They were closer in the summer, but since mid-July Jackson's pulled ahead. Is that just another sign, really, of the electorate generally, around America, particularly, as Rich Barris said, those who, you know, flirting with Trump maybe in 2024, like the woke bashing rhetoric, like the idea of closing the border, like some of the broad brushstrokes

of what Trump was talking about, like the idea of not getting involved in expensive wars, and then now they've actually become quite disillusioned. In other words, they're not the die-hard maggas, but they're the ones that were kind of flirting with him. Yeah, Pierce, that's all right. And let's, That's all correct. Let's understand the House is gone. But I also go back to a point Lydia made a while ago. I think the Senate is a coin toss. And all these people saying the Democrats are going to take back the Senate and then some. I think they're getting ahead of their skis. When it comes to the Senate, it really does come down to the individual races, period. Susan Collins, Maine's a small state, Pierce. It's the size of a neighborhood block. Everybody knows her. She's going to be tough to be.

Two points, though. It's always so important to remember approval of the Democratic Party is in the toilet. This will probably be a blue tsunami, but it has absolutely nothing to do with the Democrats. It will be a blue tsunami

having everything to do with Trump and what he's done. And Pierce, yeah, be skeptical of the polls, but we have hard data. In every single special election, since Donald Trump was sworn in in January of 25, Democratic turnout has been through the freaking roof in every single special election.

Republican turnout, not so much. I think that's going to sort of tell the story in the midterms. Lydia, let's just look at South Carolina for a moment because you've got Darlene Graham Naldone, who's, of course, to the sister of the late Lindsey Graham. I mean, hardly any political experience whatsoever, but seems to be romping to victory, according to Polly Market. Currently predicted to be 85% the winner compared to Annie Andrews on 15%. Are you entirely comfortable that somebody with that kind of political experience, waltzes into a Senate seat,

primarily off the back of her late grade brother? Because I'm not sure I am. It's a bit odd. Yeah. You kind of thought initially when she was appointed, that's weird. Why is his sister getting this post? but maybe that's just a nice tribute to him as she finishes out his term, which was supposed to be a couple months. So the fact that now she is going up for this election, when she concedes she doesn't know a lot about foreign policy, which was, of course, her brother's main issue. It's very strange. You have 100 senators in a population of 340 million people. And one of them appears to be a completely naive political operative who, well, It feels like a modernity or something. Like we are a meritocracy.

You shouldn't get a job because of who your brother is. It's kind of the ultimate nepotism there. But look, I think, you know, it's very important to note as we're going into this that for the most part, obviously the affordability issue is huge. I think one of the issues for Trump is that he is such a salesman. And so in 2024, he kept promising, I'm going to bring prices down. And the reality is that unless you go into recession, which we're going to, which we're going to, we don't want, prices are not going to be coming down. And so I think in a way, he was sort of a victim

of the fact that he did message so much optimism in 2024. But I think the challenge for the Democrats is it's easy to be the one to say, oh, you don't like gas prices. That's the Republicans' fault. Vote for me. But what they're going to ultimately have to do is show what is their alternative? It's easy to say, oh, you hate the war, vote for me.

But what are you actually going to offer? And so if they do win, I think the question is, what are they going to be able to deliver? Because right now we've seen the impact of their policies. We saw it under Joe Biden. It was a lot more inflation. It was an open border. And so I do think J.D. Vance is having a good approach here saying,

give us a bit more time because we are still in a mess that the Democrats have created trying to unravel it. And pointed to the fact that it's easy to say, you hate Trump vote for me, but what are they actually going to be offering? I do think that's a fair point. I don't think that's a lasting message. Yeah, hate Trump. You know, and that's not going to be on the ballot in two years.

Right. But that's enough. Yeah, sorry, Joe. Pierce, that's enough. But the point is, hey, Trump, Trump sucks. That's enough for Democrats to win this year. Beyond this year, that's not enough. No, I agree.

The point I was going to make, actually, and come back to Nancy Mace here, is I think the Republicans are going to have a blah-bath in these midterms. But the real challenge for the Democrats heading to 2028, they do have to find a good candidate with good policies who, By then, won't even need to be the anti-Trump, because Trump may be a lame, dark, and irrelevant, right?

But you've got to present to the country a vision for the future they're going to buy into it. I'm not convinced that the democratic socialism vision for America is going to resonate on a national level in the way that gets them over the line with that. But before I get your response to that, though, you're from South Carolina. It is a bit odd this, isn't it? I mean, the fact that your brother happened to be a longtime great senator, you end up by default just because you're a sister getting one of the prized 100 slots in the U.S. Senate. I mean, if that happened in the UK, we'd all go nuts.

Are you guys not a bit freaking out about this? Well, we did have a special election, and she was elected by the voters. Now, I didn't support her because I'm no queens, no kings, right? I supported Ralph Norman in the election, but the voters did get a chance to vote. We had actually pretty high turnout for the special election in South Carolina for the Republican primary. but it is a much tighter race than it should be. Six years ago when Lindsey Graham ran against Jamie Harrison last time, he won by about 10 points. It was a $220, $230 million race, and Darlene Graham has struggled to get out the gate with fundraising.

She's not raised nearly as much money as her opponent, but her opponent is a pediatrician who supports transitioning children and gender affirming care. And that just doesn't play down here. The problem with South Carolina in this race is all the down ballot races, being much closer than they need to. And you just saw the congressional leadership fund put money, put money into my district so that the Republican who's going to take my place at the end of the year. She's getting another half million dollars. There's some concern, I think, that my seat could flip. I won my seat from the Democrat by one point in 2019 when I was sworn in in 2020. So the problem is going to be state house races, state Senate races, you know, races that are down the

ballot, not just in South Carolina, but in other states. How is this going, this bloodbath, as we are agreeing to, how is this bloodbath going to trickle down in other races? And how is it going to reform other types of government, county councils, city councils, etc. Yeah. Professor Zhang, bigger picture here. Let's assume for a moment that the Republicans lose the whole of Congress. They lose the House, lose the Senate. What does that mean for 2028? does it mean the end of Trumpism? I mean, could you see a situation where one of the Trump children runs in 2020?

Or does the Trump MAGA movement effectively die in that moment and then eke out a slow, miserable death? Or would there be things Trump could do, notwithstanding not having Congress, you know, through executive orders, whatever it may be, which could save Trumpism and the MAGA movement

for a 28 candidate, like a JD Vance, to come through and potentially win, or one of his kids, even? From a game theory, big picture's perspective, it's actually in Trump's best interest for the Democrats to win both the, um, both houses. And the reason why is Democrats don't actually have a platform that appeals to most American voters. If the Democratic, um, if Democratic candidates said one, three things, okay, either we will stop this war in Iran or two, we will have a,

moratorium on data centers, or three will force the release of the Epstein files. It would be a blue tsunami, and I think that in 2008, a Democratic candidate would win the presidency. But they don't say any of these three things, and you have to ask yourself, what they're going to do, they have both houses. And the easy answer is they will issue subpoenas, and they will start investigating the Trump White House. And it'll just be a complete waste of time, because it will not improve the lives of the average American voter. It will just be bread and circus, exactly what happened in 2018 after the Democrats swept both houses. And so if the Democrats control both houses, the American voter will see the Democrats don't

actually have any ideas or any policies that are going to benefit them, and it's going to put them in a very disadvantaged position in 2028. Also, because there's so much Zionist money and AIA money and cryptocurrency money flowing into these midterms, we can expect that the both, that Congress will probably go along with Trump policies, which means that if Trump escalates this war in the Middle East, the Democrats will vote to escalate this war. If Trump issues an bailout, the Democrats will go along with a trillion dollar bailout for these companies. Cryptocurrency will continue. They'll probably pass the the Genius and Clarity Act. And so the Democratic

party then becomes complicit in Trump policies. And this puts them in a very disadvantaged position in 2028. Yeah, it's going to be fascinating, isn't it? I'm actually going to DC for the mid-toe because I want to be there. I want to feel the action, feel what's going on, feel the, because I do think it's going to be, as with all things Trump, it's not going to be as predictable as some people think it's going to be. Hence why, it's interesting to see the polymarket prediction stuff on this.

Thank you to all my panel. Much appreciate it. If you want to put your money where your mouth is for the midterms, download the Polymarker app. You can deposit $10 and get $25 by using the code uncensored. Simple example. Pierce Morgan Unsensored is proudly independent. The only boss around here is me.

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