Pod Save America - Donald Trump: Bible Salesman

Episode Date: March 27, 2024

The Bulwark’s Sarah Longwell joins Dan to talk about Biden’s post State of the Union uptick in the polls. A cash-strapped Donald Trump is now selling bibles while preparing to be the first Preside...nt to be criminally prosecuted after his hush money case gets a trial date. Meanwhile, he’s refusing to court the Nikki Haley voters who might make or break his fate in the general election. And Sarah tells Dan about the voters she’s targeting with ads from Republican Voters Against Trump. Later, Democratic Strategist Lis Smith joins the pod to talk about Robert F. Kennedy’s Vice Presidential pick Nicole Shanahan and how the Democratic National Committee is countering the threat posed by third party candidates. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast. 

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. And I'm Sarah Longwell. Thanks to Sarah Longwell for joining me today. She's the executive director of Republican Voters Against Trump, publisher of The Bulwark, host of the Focus Group podcast, and one of the smartest people writing, talking, and working in politics today. Sarah, thank you for doing this. That was a nice intro. Thanks. Well, you know, you co-host, we'll flatter you, that's for sure. Okay, great.
Starting point is 00:00:41 Seriously, thank you for doing this. This should be a very interesting conversation. Great to be here. On today's show, a cash-strapped Donald Trump prepares to become the first former president to be criminally prosecuted. He hawks some Bibles to pay his legal bills, turns his back on Nikki Haley voters, and then Democratic strategist Liz Smith joins to talk about Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s bizarre vice presidential choice. But first, let's start with some good news. Ever since his fiery State of the Union performance, Joe Biden has been on offense,
Starting point is 00:01:10 barnstorming the battleground states, running ads, and taking Trump on directly. Yesterday, he and Vice President Harris were in North Carolina to talk about health care and point out that if elected, Donald Trump would repeal the Affordable Care Act, kicking millions of people off their health care. And it seems like, just maybe, all that good work is starting to pay off. There have been a number of polls in the last couple of weeks that have shown Joe Biden with a slight lead. And then yesterday, the Bloomberg Morning Consult swing state poll showed Biden making gains everywhere and pulling into a virtual tie in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, three pretty important states. Now, a lot of the data nerds and party
Starting point is 00:01:52 poopers are saying this might just be statistical noise. Sarah, what do you think? Do you think Joe Biden has a little wind in his back right now? Yeah. I mean, look, if it's going to be noise, you want the good kind of noise, right? You want to be noisy in your favor. Look, I think that some of this probably has to do with everybody. We've been waiting. We've been waiting for the post State of the Union pickup here. People seeing a little bit more of Biden. They're also seeing a little bit more of Donald Trump, right? This is what happens now when people have to enter the acceptance phase of their five stages of grief over the fact that these two are running again against each other. And once you hit acceptance, right, you start having to make real choices. And you realize that you can't sort of, I listened to a lot of voters
Starting point is 00:02:37 in the camp of, but Nikki Haley could still pull it out. Something could still happen. And once you hit the point of like, nope, guys, it is Trump again, I do think and have always thought that that would start to shift the dynamic. Because look, a lot of these voters aren't that pumped about Biden, but they're really not pumped about Donald Trump. And so I just, that's what I think we're starting to see is a very slow, but ultimately I do think, my hope is obviously that this is the way it starts trending. And look, movement, when the movement is consistent, and this is where I have not been willing to dismiss the polls that we've been seeing that show bad news for Joe Biden,
Starting point is 00:03:16 because they are directionally consistent. And we're starting to see a directionally consistent shift. So that's how I take it. Yeah, look, I think the first step for Biden is to win back some of the people who voted for him in 2020, Democrats who ideologically align with him, who are currently not supporting him in polls, either because they're saying they're not going to vote, they are open to third party candidates for whatever reason, right? They're just not happy. And so those are the people you win back first. That's how you get this back to a very close race. The other thing I think is important is prior to the State of the Union, I think it's hard for people, probably people who listen to this podcast or listen to your podcast or
Starting point is 00:03:59 read the things we write, to just realize how absent politics is for most people's lives, and particularly Joe Biden. Joe Biden has just been, people don't see him. They don't hear from him. He's just not really part of the conversation. To the extent politics is breaking through, it's largely about Trump, right? Trump winning primaries or Trump getting indicted for things and surviving it or whatever else. And since the State of the Union, Joe Biden gave a speech for 30 million people to see. He's been in the battleground states. He's been making news, attacking Trump, going after him. And they're running a million dollars of ads in a lot of these states a week. And so that helps. There has been this cyclone force winds of negative Biden conversation, and now there's some pushback. And that's got to help somewhat with some voters who are favorably aligned to Biden. And so you're not going to, one, say the union's not going to win this thing, but it's good progress. And it's been a while since we've seen progress. So that is great.
Starting point is 00:04:54 How much of this do you think is related to the economy? Are you hearing anything in your focus groups that show people that the dark clouds are starting to part? What do you think? Yeah. So green shoots. I won't go super far because what I've seen are basically people saying, I feel like things are starting to get better. And I want to tell you, in the focus groups, two of the biggest comments I get, one speaks to your earlier point, which is you'd ask them about Joe Biden. People would say, what is he even doing? I don't see him. They'd say, I don't see him. They say that about Kamala Harris too, this idea of they are invisible. I don't see them. That has been, I think, a big problem. And it has allowed sort of the dementia narrative to fester when people only see Joe Biden in Republican
Starting point is 00:05:36 sort of montages of him looking old and feeble. And I think that is what the State of the Union really did. It cleared that dementia bar, started to, and Joe Biden being out there, that really helps. So people are seeing him. And then there's the economy. So what people have said in the focus groups now for months is they really catastrophize about the economy. The opening question in every focus group I do is just, how do you think things are going in the country? And people tend to say pretty bad. And it's almost entirely related to the cost of food, the cost of gas, cost of rent, and the cost of trying to purchase a home. But in the last handful of groups that we've done, and we do at least one a week sometimes too, you're hearing a lot more, especially from swing
Starting point is 00:06:15 voters. And these tend to be these college educated suburban voters starting to say things like, I don't know, I feel like it's starting to get better. And that's where Biden should be. Not the economy is amazing. You guys don't feel the hit of inflation. You guys don't feel the hit of higher prices. But hey, we're turning things around. It is getting better. Let's continue that momentum. And so that's the main green shoots I've seen. Yeah. I think one of the takeaways I had from the State of the Union was that in addition to just people seeing Biden being energetic and active, which is incredibly important, I think he nailed his economic message the best there than he has in any other point over the last couple of years here, right?
Starting point is 00:06:57 We had the Bidenomics period. We had these members of Congress tweeting out hashtag Biden boom every time there were good jobs numbers. It was just like a lot of Democrats, not just the president, he was actually cut better than most, but we're sort of missing where voters were. And I think there's been this alignment of better messaging from Democrats and Biden in particular to sort of say, look where we started, look how bad things were when I got here, look how much progress we've made. And the other guy is going to take us back. And then people being more open to that because they are feeling optimistic. The numbers are still
Starting point is 00:07:31 terrible. I just saw a Navigator poll that came out today, I think, that showed two-thirds of the country is still pessimistic. And that's improvement. That's how bad things have been. But just the idea that we're headed towards recession, the number of people saying that is going way down. The number of people who say we're in recession is going way down. The number of people who say that we are losing jobs, which is obviously factually absurd, is coming down. So there is just, I think, a little more openness to this progress message, which is what is
Starting point is 00:07:59 just much better than triumph. And I think that has been good for them. And I think it's starting to help a little bit. All of this is on the margins, right? Like that's all we're talking about here. But I, people are, I sort of, you know, you say the five stages of grief when it comes to dealing with sort of coming to acceptance and making your decision in this election. I sort of feel like there are these various, there are a lot of voters who do not want Donald Trump to be president. And there's like various obstacles that are preventing them from taking the action to stop Donald Trump from being president.
Starting point is 00:08:27 And one of those is immense frustration and anger on the economy. And when that hurdle tumbles down a little bit, that helps Joe Biden. I think that's sort of happening here too. Yeah. But I also want to say there's two economies. There's the real economy and there's the vibes economy. And the vibes economy has been incredibly out of sync with the real economy. And part of that is, and look, I'm not an economist, and so I'm not going to go deep on this, but there are some of the economic indicators like unemployment, which should be, it's just boom times for Biden on unemployment. But there are other things like the high interest rates, which maybe don't get thought of as much when people,
Starting point is 00:09:06 economists are thinking about how the economy looks, but it is keeping people from leveling up their homes. It is impacting people's choices. And so that genuinely has, you know, some real impacts, but there's also like Donald Trump, when he had, when his, when the economy was doing anything good, he would run out and all of his surrogates would do the same thing. And they would be like, best economy for black people, best economy for women. Hey, buddy, how's your 401k doing? And they would just pump in the positive vibes. And I do think that Democrats really worry about saying anything about the economy that might strike as, you know, out of touch with where voters are. And so they do
Starting point is 00:09:47 a lot of sort of hand wringing. But there is a way and I think you just you said it for Biden to really, you know, say, look, we're moving in the right direction. Let's talk about where we were. That allows him to be optimistic and start putting out those good vibes. Look at we're going in the right direction. Look how we're moving. And you've got to send your surrogates out there with a positive message because you can have an impact on vibes. Part of what I hear in the focus groups and people are like, I feel like it's getting better. Some of it's because voters are a lagging indicator in terms of how the economy affects their real lives. And so they start to feel certain things themselves and start to say it feels better. But they also just hear economic news in the world. And Republicans were pumping
Starting point is 00:10:25 the negative vibes about the economy so hard. And I think that Democrats countering that and Joe Biden starting to push that out and drive those narratives is really important because you got to be on the vibes as well. I'm really torn on this one because obviously I bear the battle scars of helping try to get Barack Obama reelected in the middle of the Great Recession. And we would do focus groups and try to talk about positive movement in the economy, including the use of term green shoots would cause focus group participants to turn on the moderator like you have never seen. They were so – I mean, they had been through a truly traumatic economic experience
Starting point is 00:11:06 with the Great Recession. One day things are great. The next thing, their house is underwater, right? And millions of people have lost their jobs. And even if you had your job and you had your house, you were still locked into that house for as far as you could see, you know, how you thought if you were lucky enough to own a home, how you thought of your net worth had gone way down because housing prices had collapsed and you were afraid you were going to lose your job. Right. And so it's just this very hard thing about trying, you know, it was very easy for
Starting point is 00:11:34 Trump at a time of incredibly low unemployment, zero interest rates and no inflation to say those things. It's Biden's obviously not in that position right now. And Trump had as annoying as it is this, you know, bullshit business person patina because of the celebrity apprentice that gave him some additional credibility. I think the right thing for Biden here is what he's saying is just like, we're making progress, right? And the other guy is going to make it worse. And you know, he's gonna make it worse because he wants to give more tax cuts to the rich to pay for cuts to social security.
Starting point is 00:12:03 Right. And just like, leave it that way. But I think there was just too much triumphalism. And then we switched to too much dumerism. And I think we've kind of gotten to the Goldilocks version of economic messaging now. And it's pretty good. Yeah, agree. OK.
Starting point is 00:12:16 On Monday, New York State Supreme Court Judge Juan Marchand announced that Trump's hush money trial will begin on April 15th. The former president seems to be taking it great. He spent much of the last two days ranting about how unfair it is, comparing himself to Jesus, and to pay his legal bills, he is now hawking Bibles in partnership with country star Lee Greenwood. Yes, that's actually happening. Let's take a listen. All Americans need a Bible in their home, and I have many. It's my favorite book. It's a lot of people's favorite book. This Bible is a reminder
Starting point is 00:12:46 that the biggest thing we have to bring back America and to make America great again is our religion. Religion is so important. It's so missing, but it's going to come back and it's going to come back strong, just like our country is going to come back strong. All right. Before we get to the important stuff, what is up with the Bible thing? Do you think voters could possibly find this unseemly or is it just something for people like you and I to laugh about? No, it's stuff for you and I to laugh about. I mean, you know, every now and then, remember when he held the Bible upside down after he tried to clear those protesters, the peaceful protesters with the smoke bombs or whatever, you know, that in swing voter world, and I'll talk,
Starting point is 00:13:26 this is a specific kind of swing voter where they're pretty tapped in. They are right-leaning independents. They're soft GOP voters. They're Nikki Haley voters. Those are the people where they like listen to the news and it grinds their gears that this guy is such a fake and a phony. But in terms of like his base or in terms of the majority, this is where Donald Trump, you talk about the celebrity thing. This was the big thing that I missed. And until I started doing focus groups all the time, I didn't understand just how much the celebrity just, that's the Teflon part because people expect him to sell stuff. They expect him to be fake on these things. They don't think for a second that he's religious, but they think that he is fighting for them if they're religious.
Starting point is 00:14:13 They think he is injecting this into the conversation, putting religion back. I hear people unironically say that Donald Trump brought religion back all the time, his two-time Trump voters. And that is, like, you look at it, we look at it and think, man, this is so shameless. Not only, first of all, guys, the Bibles are free most places. Like, if you want to get your hands on a Bible, you go to a church and they'll give you one. Like, if you want the Book of Mormon, they'll just come to your house and give you one. These are the kinds of books that people give away for free. But, Dori, this one comes with, I don't know if you saw this, it comes with the Constitution and the Pledge of Allegiance, all sort of the Declaration of Independence. They're in there too. And so instead of separation of church and state,
Starting point is 00:15:03 you can now get sort of the church-state bundle for $59.99 from Donald Trump. I mean, yeah, this is a very important point you're making, right? Like it is, I mean, he's selling Bibles, he's selling sneakers, he's selling NFTs, he used to sell wine, steaks, merch. And the celebrity thing works for him in several ways, right? It's a permission structure to do all this ridiculous stuff because it's what celebrities do, right? He has been selling stuff to America since the moment America got introduced to him in the 80s, right? He's selling his books. He's showing up in comics. He's everywhere. But the celebrity thing also helps him. And I remember just being so
Starting point is 00:15:45 struck by this in an episode of the Focus Group podcast that you did a while back on the religious voters. They don't think he's religious, but they think he fights for them. And then voters who are more socially liberal think that Donald Trump is also socially liberal like them. And I think I remember you saying that voters will, when talking about abortion and focus groups with, about Trump, will laugh at the idea that he's actually anti-choice and will volunteer that he, that he paid for abortions probably, right? Like that, he's getting it both ways here. Now I do, like this is, his base is never going to leave him. And people, and I think the other thing that liberals, myself included, often miss with Trump is that a lot of his voters are in on the shtick, right? They get
Starting point is 00:16:30 it, right? They're not being, like as you said, they're not running around thinking, oh, he's a true Bible believer, and then we're going to unmask him as not being a Bible believer, and the evangelicals are going to back away from him. That's just not how it is. But the way that I think we can use this to argue is that I've come to think that just one of the best arguments about Trump is just he's in it for himself. He's not in it for you. He's running for president to get out of his legal troubles, to reward himself and his rich friends, and make a bunch of money, and seek vengeance on his enemies. And here's one example is he's just selling shit to you all the time. And the fact himself and his rich friends and make a bunch of money and seek vengeance on his enemies, right? And here's one example is he's just selling shit to you all the time, right? And the fact that he's
Starting point is 00:17:08 raising money to pay his legal bills is another example of that. But it's not that people are going to be like, oh my God, he's just a cheesy salesperson who doesn't really believe in God. Like that's not the argument here. But if we get to laugh about it, great. But now let's get to the more serious part of this stuff, Sarah. Trump is obviously worried. Whenever he starts rage-truthing all the time and playing victim, it's clear that he is evincing some insecurity about his position. You talk to more voters probably than anyone else in politics in recent years, and particularly the exact voters that Donald Trump can't afford to lose. How big a deal are these trials and a potential conviction in this specific trial for
Starting point is 00:17:49 Trump? Well, right now, I mean, I think the reason he's freaking out right now is a little less about the conviction and a little more that they're not sure that the money is going to line up. Like, I think he's been pretty worried about the money, not just because of paying it, but because of what it means about who he is to voters. Him being a rich guy, I cannot tell you how much that is both important to him as his brand, but also important to voters who see Trump weirdly as aspirational, right? One of the reasons he gets high marks is the economy. You said this before about him being a businessman, but it's also like he's rich and they would like to be rich too. And they would like him to run the economy in such a way that they get to be rich.
Starting point is 00:18:30 And so I think he's genuinely freaked out because even if he makes this sale, which it seems like Jeff Yass and other Republican billionaires are lining up to try to help make happen to get him out of these financial problems. I'm not sure he can sell, like his stock is up, you know, for this, the truth social stuff, but I'm not sure, uh, that he can sell it in time to make his bond. Uh, so I do think he's worried about the financial stuff. I also think, um, I think there've been banking on the fact that the, once he's the presumptive nominee, that the judges are going to start to get really icked out by prosecuting and trying a guy who is running for president. It's never happened
Starting point is 00:19:16 before. We've never been here before. And I do think they thought at some point, that's why the delay tactics are all about getting people to be like, we're getting so close to an election. He's now the Republican presumptive nominee. You put gag orders on him. Any of this stuff now suddenly comes with a big tinge of, hey, you are keeping him from talking to voters. This is a threat to democracy. I'm not sure that the judges are blinking the way that they thought they would in terms of they seem to just be moving forward and they're trying to delay and it's working to some degree, but also like it looks like the New York thing could, you know, is going to start on April 15th. And so I do. And there are these that look, I've always felt a couple of different ways about the Stormy Daniels trial. It is an election interference trial. It's about passing bad checks. It's about hush money.
Starting point is 00:20:00 But also, you know, when everybody's talking about porn stars and you got two old dudes, uh, and Donald Trump gets to be talking about porn stars, uh, I do think that that sort of helps him with a certain amount of voters because it's such, seems like such an unserious case. and by legal convictions make a difference. And look, there's been a lot of people have been polled on this, and there's roughly 30% of Republicans who say that if Trump gets convicted of a crime, that makes them less likely to vote for him or they won't vote for him if he's convicted from a crime. Now, that number is way too high, because once the conservative media, right-wing media starts working on him, that number is going to go way down. But his baggage with swing voters has always been a huge problem. The indictments are a problem for him with these voters. I talk to them all the time. And so, you know, this is where, and there's analysis. I've been on TV with people and they've
Starting point is 00:20:54 been, they're failing to make the turn between the analysis with base voters where the legal troubles help him endlessly. That is true. Rally around Trump effect, very, very real. But everybody's saying, oh, well, if you convict him, you know, the Americans are going to elect him. That is not true. Especially the college educated suburban swing voters, they still have a lot of faith in the legal system. And if Donald Trump is convicted, it is going to hurt him. So I do think he is worried both about just the sheer volume of the penalties that could be headed his way. Now, look, he's not going to jail before the election. There's a bunch of these cases in which the docs case, that's not going to go before the election. The January 6th
Starting point is 00:21:38 case, it's not going to go before the election. That sound you hear as listeners deleting this podcast and throwing their phone into the ocean right now on that news, this is what liberals are hoping for. I'm not saying you're wrong, but this is- I'm sorry. It's true. These are complicated cases where classified materials, it's hard. But he is very likely going to, listen, this is a good, listen to split screen right now. The other thing that's driving him crazy, Joe Biden is barnstorming swing states. Donald Trump is sitting in courtrooms and then he is trying to raise money to pay the legal fees for the courtrooms. And for right now, he can feel OK about that because he's been running hot in the polls.
Starting point is 00:22:20 But as things start to shift, if they start to shift, which as we talked about earlier, I think they're starting to turn just a little bit, you will see him start to freak out more because he can't do the things. He doesn't even have enough money right now to hold his big rallies because they're expensive to put on. Don't throw your phones in the ocean. It's too late. The phones are gone. So there's only a small percentage of people are still listening to this. Just out of curiosity, why do you think he's having so much trouble raising money relative to Joe Biden? He has been a cash machine in previous elections. What's happening here? Number one, he's been asking his voters for money now for a really long time. A lot of them gave
Starting point is 00:23:02 till it hurt during the stop the seal. Like a decade, basically. Yeah, right. And so I think some people might be a little bit tapped out. Certainly with big donors, they know they're footing his legal bills. They just do. And so there's a lot of people who don't want to foot his legal bills. That's not how they want their money to be spent. And look, go get your phones out of the ocean because I'm going to say something that's going to make you feel good that I even hesitate to say because I don't like to be overly optimistic because I'm not a poll denier. I do think that people have been super tired. Like there's real fatigue among the voters. But when I saw that 20 percent of self-ID Republicans in Arizona still turned up to vote for Nikki Haley, even though she wasn't on the ballot and Donald Trump was the nominee, people are sitting around being like, I'm not I know who these guys are.
Starting point is 00:24:00 I don't care about I don't like Joe Biden. He doesn't get he doesn't get my mark when I'm doing approval ratings. But you give me just tell me when the Tuesday is when I get to go vote against Donald Trump, because I want to go vote against Donald Trump. And so I think that there is, I think there remains intense enthusiasm from people to keep Donald Trump out of office. And I think that the enthusiasm to put Donald Trump in office has been waning. Like, I just think people are, I don't think he's got the, look, he's got his hardcore people. They're in there. They're good. He can win any primary he wants, but like, can he get people to keep chipping in their $10? I mean, you aren't on these Republican lists. I don't know if you get them, but I, because I have given to Republicans in the past, I cannot get off the Trump texts.
Starting point is 00:24:46 And his texts are insane. It's like, they're taking Trump Tower from me. And they're just like, they're bananas. And at some point, you run into a ceiling of how many people that that appeals to. And look, I could, what could also happen is that there's a lot of people who just go, I'm going to vote for Trump. I don't care about all the nonsense. I just want the economy to be good. And I think he won't get us into wars. There are a lot of people like that, a lot of people like that. But I don't think they want to give Donald Trump money. I don't think people are as invested in him winning. I think he's going to have an enthusiasm problem as time goes on. And I think that the Democrats, it's not that Joe Biden's going to have enthusiasm for him, but I think the enthusiasm to vote against Donald Trump is still there. I just
Starting point is 00:25:29 don't think people can sustain it all the time the way they could last time. Yeah, I think that's right. I think Trump has definitely burned through his list with some of the sketchiest tactics. Every text feels like it's the last text they're ever going to send based on the one. I'm not on the list, but I see a lot of them, you know, from reporters and circulating on Twitter and such. And you these lists have all they have a half life and you burn them to the ground. And if you're not adding new people to them all the time, then you're this is this part of this will happen. You're right about, you know, the rich people who don't want to give their money like he's going to have enough money to run this race. I think that's an important Biden will have more money, and his money will be more valuable because Biden
Starting point is 00:26:06 will certainly have, as Democrats often do, will have more money on the hard side or the campaign side where your dollars can go further than all these super PAC dollars. But there is something happening there that Donald Trump, while winning a race under 91 felony indictments or being ahead in the RCP polling, however you want to characterize it, is not able to raise even a good amount, a good amount of money, let alone a great amount of money like that. I think that is notable and does speak to something because what kept him afloat before was the $5 and $10 donations. And that is a proxy for something, right?
Starting point is 00:26:41 It really is. It's not the billionaire money that doesn't tell you a ton other than maybe how some billionaires feel about their tax rates or their level of political engagement, but the small dollar stuff does say something and usually correlates to some measure of enthusiasm and success in the race. All right, a couple of quick things before we go to break. First, if you're currently listening to this episode on Google Play, listen up because starting next week, the Google Play app will no longer be in use for podcasts. So please make sure to save Pod Save America and all your other Crooked Media podcasts
Starting point is 00:27:10 on your next favorite podcast platform so you never miss an episode. New episodes out every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. And Women's History Month is almost over. But no matter the month, check out two amazing Crooked Media podcasts, Strict Scrutiny, to hear three brilliant constitutional law professors break down the latest Supreme Court drama and hysteria for everything from the latest on reproductive rights to a deep dive on Marjorie Taylor Greene. Subscribe to these shows wherever you get your podcasts. Moving on here, it's been three weeks since Nikki Haley dropped out of the primary. And the New York Times reports that Trump has yet to even call her or even court her supporters.
Starting point is 00:27:59 And it should be said that though she's out of the race, she's managed to pull in a pretty big number of votes in the primaries, which could end up making a difference in the tight race between Trump and Biden. I know it's very on brand for a guy who thinks the biggest asshole always wins. But are you surprised that even Trump is being this stubborn about Nikki Haley and her voters? No, I think that they have a theory of the case, the Trump folks, which is, and I criticize them for this, and I'm glad they're doing it, but this is what they think is going to happen. They want to actively kick out the Mitt Romney rhinos and permanently bar the Nikki Haley voters. them with they don't feel like those are their people anyway they feel like those people hate them those people drag them down and so they want to push actively push them out as a show in order to pick up more hispanic voters black voters um other you know the sort of there's this weird unholy alliance with kind of the barstool sports bro uh hetereterodox, you know, whatever. The Elons, the Joe Rogan.
Starting point is 00:29:08 Yeah, the Joe Rogan. That's exactly right. Okay, so I think that this is on purpose. I think that the idea that Nikki Haley was ever going to be as vice president, I don't think that was there. I do think they want to do something about suburban women. Like, I do think they might give that some thought at some point. But right now, I'm not surprised he hasn't called her. And if I understand why she did this, but like, if she thinks he's going to come groveling to her, I think that is not going to happen. And my hope is, is that Nikki Haley learned through the process of
Starting point is 00:29:45 running that she didn't understand the Republican Party or its voters and where they are now. And that now that she does, she opts, she understands that she doesn't have a future in the Republican Party because people like her don't. And just like Mike Pence, she opts not to endorse him. I get Trump being so petty as to not call her. That is a very Trump power dynamic move. I'm not going to call her. She calls me, right? That sort of thing. But for all the talk of how much smarter and more savvy and more professional the Chris Lasavita, Susie Wiles version of this campaign is than the freaking dregs of the Fox News green room who ran the last two. It does seem insane in a race that
Starting point is 00:30:33 you lost by 50,000 votes over three states to specifically say you don't want those votes as Trump has done in the past and to not try to get them on board. It is so self-defeating. Is it on brand for Trump? Yes. Is there a world in which they think – I don't think there's a zero sum between trying to win over some people who voted for Trump in 2016 and didn't vote for him in 2020 and maybe voted for Nikki Haley in the primary and also trying to activate some set of new voters through, as you say, barstool, sort of toxic internet stuff or whatever it is. You can go find some other voters, but you don't have to stick your thumb in the eye of someone whose vote is getting 30% of the vote
Starting point is 00:31:21 and 20% even after being out of the race. That seems like some voters you would try to get. So I think that's kind of crazy. Yeah, but it's also like right now, they don't feel like they need anybody, right? I think they are shocked by their own success and they're kind of high on their own supply. I think, look, if it's really tight, binds up by a couple of points in all the swing states and they know that where they're bleeding is suburban voters come September, know where they're bleeding as suburban voters come September, then maybe he calls. Yeah, that's fair. Who are these Haley voters? Nate Cohn in the New York Times has a piece out today looking at precinct level data in Georgia, which says that a lot of the Haley voters in the Georgia primary were Biden voters in the past. Who are they from what you've seen? I'm sure you've
Starting point is 00:32:02 run into a lot of them in your focus groups, or maybe not a lot of them given how the primary went, but some of them. And can they really make a difference in this election? Yeah, of course they can make a difference. I think they're the margin makers, and I think they're the people that lost it for Trump in 2020. And look, you can tell me if you think I'm right about this, but the way I think about it, just to keep it simple, is that there's kind of two kinds of swing voters, right?
Starting point is 00:32:25 There's the Obama Trump voters, which tend to be more working class, maybe like less sort of tapped into like following the news every day. I don't like to call them low info because sometimes I think people who opt out of politics. It's different info. Yeah. They're the same ones. Like, God bless them for not having to follow everything. And then there's the college educatededucated suburban set, right?
Starting point is 00:32:47 These are Romney voters. These are McCain voters. They liked George W. Bush. They tend to be, you know, they like low taxes, and they're also kind of social moderates. And they follow the news sort of generally. They're kind of like New York Times, Wall Street Journal, regular news followers. And they've never liked Donald Trump. And I think that that 30 percent.
Starting point is 00:33:12 So I've read Nate Cohn's piece today about Georgia. And I think that there's a difference in different states where you saw the mobilization of the anti-Trump coalition and where there was just kind of a vote. Right. Like I think that where Nikki Haley in New Hampshire and in South Carolina, where she had a chance to mobilize voters, the self-ID Republican voters who voted for her were roughly 30 percent. It's very similar to the percentage of voters who do not think that the election was stolen. Republican voters who do not think the election was stolen and who say that they won't vote for Trump if he's convicted with a crime. I have been kind of obsessed with this 30 percent number because I do think that that is the percentage of people who want to move on from Trump. And I think some percentage of those people are going to vote for Trump.
Starting point is 00:34:00 They're Republicans and they're going to go home and they read The Wall Street Journal and they are persuaded by the argument that Democrats are worse. That is one subset of that 30 percent. Another subset already voted for Joe Biden. However, that doesn't mean that they weren't important. They voted for Joe Biden not because they're Democrats. They voted for Joe Biden because they hate Trump. And as you noted earlier, holding on to that coalition is like step number one, because I've watched some of these people in the focus groups backslide, right? They've who have voted for Biden because they hated Trump. But now they're like, oh, the economy is so bad. I might just close my eyes, turn off the news and, you know, support Donald Trump. So that's another kind. And then you've got the Nikki Haley voters that I call the double haters, the double doubters or the pox on both their housers. Right. Again,
Starting point is 00:34:44 right leaning independent soft GOP voters. They're not Democrats. They're not Democrats. And that makes them want to support a Republican if you give them a good one, but they also will not vote for these extreme Republican candidates. They won't vote for Blake Masters. They won't vote for Kerry Lake. They won't vote for Donald Trump.
Starting point is 00:35:00 They won't vote for Hershel Walker. And I think that Joe Biden, that's why he runs the campaign. That's why the next eight months matter so much because he has got to take people who right now are frustrated with him over the economy, over immigration, and he's got to make them hate Donald Trump more. It's going to be a nasty campaign because the epochs on both their housers, the double haters, it's going to come down to, man, the phrase that I hear all the time in focus groups, if it was a drinking game, we'd be dead, which is lesser of two evils. It's just, that's what people say, right? That's how they think they're evaluating this. And I
Starting point is 00:35:33 think Joe Biden can win on lesser of two evils head to head. You can talk to Liz Smith about the third party stuff though, because I think that is, I think that's incredibly perilous. When people say that lesser are two evils and you give them some third place to put their vote, that becomes really difficult. But head to head, I think Biden can really win over those double haters. And that's who I think the rest of that cohort is. Yeah. I mean, that's 2016, Oliver. You go back to 2016 and you look at focus groups from that year, it was lesser to two evils all the time. And then the people who, the double haters, they heading into the election, they largely
Starting point is 00:36:09 broke for Trump if they voted for either Trump or Clinton. And a bunch of them voted for, enough of them voted for Jill Stein or Gary Johnson that Donald Trump became president with like less than 47% of the vote. I think you made a really, really important point here, which is when this has been a, you know, I have been very much like you, very bullish on these Haley voters, Haley's showing in these primaries as evidence of some real potential weakness for Trump as a general election candidate with swing voters. And the thing you get back all the time is these people are – they voted for Biden. They voted for Biden. They're Biden voters.
Starting point is 00:36:41 And that is interpreted by some people as these are Democratic mischief makers who registered to, who voted in these open primaries. And that's, there are some of that, I'm sure, I'm sure there's a handful of people who do that, but really what they are is they're swing voters, right? They voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 20, and Biden has to keep them. And Trump has to win them over, right? We often talk about this, how Biden has to keep all these voters. Trump has to persuade some of these people to vote for him if he wants to win. And he is not trying to do that. And so these are the voters who can decide the election. And Biden is making a pitch to them, right? When Nikki Haley dropped out, he made a pitch to their voters. And I'm confident they're going to be advertising to them. They're going to be using some of the footage of Trump saying,
Starting point is 00:37:23 the rhinos are not welcome, only MAGA folks, all of that stuff to make these people feel uncomfortable with being with Trump in the end. And I think this is – we could look back on his approach to this. And yeah, you're right. He has eight months to change, but we could look back and say this was a fundamental strategic error born of Trump's absolute stubborn assholery, right? This is who he is, this is what he has done, and this is why he lost. All right, speaking of persuading these voters, Republican voters against Trump, the group you started, recently launched a $50 million ad campaign targeting, you guessed it, Republican voters. The campaign will highlight the voices of over 100 people who voted for Trump once or twice before, but now refuse to do so again. Let's listen to some of the testimony you've gathered.
Starting point is 00:38:07 I'm Ethan. I live in Wisconsin, and I voted for Donald Trump in 2020. January 6th was the end of Donald Trump for me. I could not believe what was happening before my eyes, watching what was an insurrection at the Capitol, which was, in my mind, unquestionably led by Donald Trump. I think what Donald Trump did on January 6th was dangerous for multiple reasons. In 2020, your targets for people who voted for Trump in 2016, who are you targeting this time? Is it the 6% or so of Republicans that voted for Biden in 2020? Is it independents? Is it even some of these two-time Trump voters? Yeah. So it is exactly the Nikki Haley voters, right? And it's the double
Starting point is 00:38:56 haters. And sometimes people take this as a negative on Joe Biden when I make this point, but it's not how I mean it. But I tell people all the time, I am not building a pro-Joe Biden coalition. Okay, Democrats, you go build yourself a pro-Joe Biden coalition. Okay, I'm going to build an anti-Trump coalition because that is the largest coalition that you have access to. These right-leaning independents, these soft GOP voters, even these two-time Trump voters, or the people who voted for Biden holding their nose last time and, you know, have, you know, are struggling to stick with him, you got to keep those people and you got to go get a few more because you're losing some other places, right? And so, you know, you're off, you need to offset some of your losses with Black male voters and
Starting point is 00:39:42 with Hispanic voters. And so I think you can get them from, I think there's been, it's not a full political realignment, but there's been a political shift and that accelerating can occur. And this, I'm going to say something that actually might sound a little bit crazy to people, but white voters over 65, you think of those people and you think, man, that's the MAGA target. That's the people that Trump, that love Trump. Actually, a lot of those people are the people who became Republicans under Ronald Reagan. They're the ones who saw Trump as maybe an aberration the first time, but voted for him, holding their nose because they're like, I don't want a Democrat, who after January 6th were appalled. And I want to make it clear, we don't just have 100 testimonials. We launched with 100 testimonials. We now have almost 200 testimonials. But in 2020, when we were doing this, we had
Starting point is 00:40:31 1,000 by the time the campaign was over. And I hope we get there again this time. We want to go after people who are really uncomfortable. Look, you can't talk about COVID to these people. You can't talk about Stormy Daniels. You can't talk about anything that they already voted for Trump for in 2020. This is for people who saw what happened on January 6th, saw Trump's lies about the election. And man, for a certain kind of swing voter, the way that Trump talks about himself all the time, his own grievances, the election being stolen, even if they think there was something weird about the election, they're like, shut up, man. Who cares? Just move on. And those people who
Starting point is 00:41:06 hate Donald Trump, right, we are trying to appeal to the anti-Trump coalition and peel those people away, even if some of them who voted for him twice stay home or don't vote at the top of the ticket, which a lot of Republicans did this in 2020. They left the top blank and they voted for Republicans down ticket. It's why the undercard of Republicans outperformed Trump in the 2020 election. And so our goal is to try to hold the people that we moved in 2020 who are Republicans who were against Trump and keep them and then peel away that other crowd of folks who say, I don't want a Republican party that's dominated by Donald Trump. And also I thought what happened on January 6th was awful. And like, again, shift your analysis from what base voters are doing, which is saying
Starting point is 00:41:52 January 6th was good. Let's like all lionize the January 6th people who broke into the Capitol and now have a choir and are martyrs or whatever. And think about sort of your average voter in Bucks County, Pennsylvania or Maricopa County in Arizona. They're 45 years old. They've got a couple of kids. They've always been kind of slight Republicans, but they're socially moderate. They don't want Trump again. Or even your older Republicans who are like, what is happening to this party? Because it's not just Trump anymore. This is the other thing that's happened since 2020
Starting point is 00:42:22 is they've watched a whole coterie of mini Trumps. It used to be that there was a sense of, okay, Trump's an aberration, but the rest of the Republican Party is normal. Nobody thinks that anymore. They were running on sort of Republican fumes for a long time of normality. And those have been going away cycle by cycle. I'm not saying it's just because you're here because I said it on political experts react with your colleague, Jonathan last couple weeks ago. I love this ad campaign for so many reasons. But, you know, people are listening to the podcast who aren't watching it on video. These are basically selfie videos that people are taking, right? It is raw, uncut. It's very, it's like, just it is. It's just people looking in their camera, speaking just honestly and forthrightly. And I think that's very powerful because it reflects how communication has changed in recent
Starting point is 00:43:17 years. Political ads, as we commonly know them with their voiceovers and their graphics and all of that, were originally developed to be able to air on linear television between an ad for laundry detergent and ad for McDonald's, right? It was supposed to look like that format. And that's just not how a lot of people communicate anymore. And especially with people cutting the cord and being able to fast forward through their commercials or anything else, like, especially, and this is why it was so powerful in 2020 is because we were all locked in our houses for the pandemic. That's how people were communicating, right, on FaceTime and Zoom and all of that. And so that's reason one. I love the format.
Starting point is 00:43:50 Two, I think this is just so important, is that in a world where there's so much distrust of institutions, of the media, of politicians, that hearing from people whose life experiences seem like yours is so much more influential, right? You're a Trump voter who is wrestling internally with voting against him. And that is part of your identity, right? And given how geographically polarized we become, you may live in a community of primarily Trump voters, right? People you go to church with may be mostly Trump voters.
Starting point is 00:44:20 The folks on your softball team may be mostly Trump voters. And so to break with that requires a feeling of community somewhere else, right? And seeing someone who is having that same struggle and cross the Rubicon to do it is very powerful. So I absolutely love this. I think it's really good. And I said this when I was talking to Jonathan, but it's just there's a version of this. This is not your project. You have a different project, but for folks on the Democratic Party side, like this is how you go get young voters, right? There's a version of this for Gen Z voters. There's a version of this for black voters who are frustrated with Biden or Latino voters or, you know, who, whatever your group is, where you're just letting people hear from people whose life experiences are for them,
Starting point is 00:45:02 who are like trusted messengers for them. So this is just great stuff. Sarah, if people want to support this effort of yours, how can they do that? You can go to RVAT.org. And I'm not sure you've got a lot of Republicans maybe who are listening. But if you know a Republican who wants to make a testimonial, you send them there. You can upload it on your own. Can I just say what I appreciate about you? Because you're a political and an advertising nerd.
Starting point is 00:45:29 You see me, you see this campaign, uh, like for real, for what it is. And the thing that you just said, like, I think a lot about tribalism, like doing the focus groups. I just think about how we live as tribes and how important it is to us as a community. And people underestimate this about Trump, those rallies that he's does, man, those are red solo cup parties. They are about people getting together. They like each other. They have an in-group. They have an out-group. There's an out-tribe that they don't like that they can all make fun of. They have in-jokes. That's what Let's Go Brandon is all about, right? And so you need to make your own tribe. And that identity is still important to them. A lot of these voters, they still want to say that they're
Starting point is 00:46:04 Republicans. They just want people to know they're not those kinds of Republicans, that they're against Trump, that he's anathema to their values. And the videos that are the most persuasive and people are always like, why don't you, you know, we want them to highlight how much they like Joe Biden. That's not these voters. like the reason these voters work authentically is because it shows Republicans who are struggling with their vote for Joe Biden. They say things like I've never voted for a Democrat before, or I can't believe I have to vote for Joe Biden, but I will. And that resonates with the people that we are trying to get to because they are never going to love Joe Biden, but they might hate Donald Trump enough to vote against him. I think that is exactly right. I'm so glad you're doing this. When we come back, Liz Smith joins the pod to give us a reaction to RFK's pick for VP and tell us more about what the DNC is doing to counter the threat of third-party candidates. Joining us now to talk more about what the Biden campaign is doing to counter third party candidates like RFK Jr. and his new running mate is Democratic strategist and longtime friend of the pod Liz
Starting point is 00:47:15 Smith. Liz, welcome back to Pod Save America. Thanks for having me, Dan. It's great to be back. All right. You are the perfect person to have as our guest today because you have been advising the Democratic National Committee on their efforts to push back against third-party candidates. And today, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his vice presidential pick, and it was not Aaron Rodgers. It was not Jesse Ventura. It was not even Mike Rowe. So Liz, I think perhaps the most important question I can ask you is, who the hell is Nicole Shanahan, and why did RFK Jr. announce her as his vice president today? Well, that's a good question. And I think it's a question that a lot of people are asking themselves right now. Nicole Shanahan is a very, very wealthy Bay Area lawyer, biotech entrepreneur. And it seems like she was chosen for two reasons. One, everyone else that RFK Jr. asked to be on his ticket said no. You know, people including Aaron Rodgers, disgraced self-help guru Tony Robbins, Tulsi Gabbard. And two, she is very, very wealthy.
Starting point is 00:48:19 And we know that Kennedy's campaign is broke and he needs money to hire staff to be able to get on the ballot in states across the country. And she has, you know, it looks like pretty unlimited wealth that she can give to the campaign. She's already given four and a half million dollars to the super PACs helping him. So this might be the first case in history where someone was able to buy themselves a VP slot. She helped fund, as I understand it, the Super Bowl ad that his Super PAC ran. Is that correct? Yep. She gave $4 million to run that ad and help come up with the creative, which it was creative at the time, but then it did sort of have the effect of bringing a lot of the Kennedys out of the woodwork to say how they thought that was misusing the family name.
Starting point is 00:49:04 And which also then led them to point out in many ways that they are not supporting their brother, cousin, uncle, et cetera, to be president, right? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Calling his campaign an embarrassment, dangerous, all of that. The people who know him best are not supporting him. His campaign needs money. Does his super PAC need money too? And who is funding this effort? Other than now, Nicole Shanahan, but to date, right? Well, and this is really, really, really important. The primary donor behind his super PAC is this guy named Tim Mellon, who is Donald Trump's largest donor this cycle. He's given $15 million to PAC
Starting point is 00:49:42 supporting Donald Trump. And he's given $20 million to the PAC supporting RFK Jr. And that's really, really important. And that's a message that we are trying to get out there far and wide. Because realistically, RFK Jr. does not have a path to victory in this race. And he is therefore just playing the role of spoiler. And he was recruited into this race by people like Steve Bannon and Roger Stone, who viewed him as a useful chaos agent. And now he is being funded by Donald Trump's largest donor. And why is that? Because they believe that he can play a spoiler
Starting point is 00:50:16 and help throw the election to Donald Trump in November. So we are trying to scream to the top of the rooftops so that everyone knows that he is being propped up by Donald Trump's largest donor. Do the polls show that RFK's presence on the ballot does more damage to Biden or to Trump? Because, you know, on paper, he is a conspiracy theorist, has anti-vax views. You know, some people have argued that he could actually hurt Trump more. What are you seeing in the numbers? has anti-vax views. Some people have argued that he could actually hurt Trump more. What are you seeing in the numbers? Yeah. So right now, one, I would say that a lot of people say they know where his voters come from, and we don't really. But if you look across the public polls, I would
Starting point is 00:50:56 say broadly, it looks like he takes from both candidates, but a little bit more from Biden. And why is that? I think the Kennedy name goes a really long way there. But generally, one thing we've seen about Kennedy's voters is that they tend to be lower information voters, less frequent voters. Today, I saw some polling that showed that a third of the people who said they're supporting Kennedy can't name anything about him, anything he stands for. So that, to us, signals that, you know, there's a big information vacuum. And for the people who are just supporting him because of his last name, it's really, really important for them to know that his family members, his siblings, his children, his cousins, his aunts, his uncles, that they aren't supporting him. And if the people who
Starting point is 00:51:46 know him best aren't supporting him, that speaks to a lot of who he is, both as a person and a candidate. You know, he obviously has a lot of support from high-level MAGA types, right? He's all over right-wing MAGA media, interviews with Tucker Carlson. And as you mentioned, Steve Bannon helped encourage him into the race. What is he actually running on? What does he stand for? And where does it overlap with some of the supporters like Tim Mellon and other MAGA types?
Starting point is 00:52:16 Yeah. So I would say this is not a really big issue-centric campaign. No, it's not. He's not a policy guy. Get out of here. And so, you know, generally he's trying to tap into people who are dissatisfied with the two-party system. And that's pretty fertile ground right now. You know, I don't think I'm breaking any news by saying that there are a lot of people out there frustrated with politics in general, frustrated with both parties. One, he's trying to tap into that. Two, you know, he has a long history of spreading medical misinformation. And,
Starting point is 00:52:52 you know, a couple decades ago, he hopped onto the anti-vaccine bandwagon, and he's made a lot of money pushing medical misinformation and anti-vaccine information over the years. And so he does appeal to people who are anti-vax. Yes, a lot of those people are on the right, but there is not an insignificant subsection of people like that on the left, you know, sort of in the new age left. And then when it comes to issues, well, I would say, you know, the next big bucket in his campaign, the guy has never met a conspiracy theory that he doesn't love. He thinks that Wi-Fi gives you cancer, that chemicals in the water and in fish turn kids gay and transgender. He's questioned whether Al-Qaeda is behind 9-11.
Starting point is 00:53:43 And, you know, he's just spread a multitude of vaccine conspiracy theories. And the most harmful of them of all is at the height of the pandemic, he put out a documentary that was really targeted at the black community, meant to undermine trust in the efficacy and safety of vaccines. And that shows why, you know, his policies and his language is actually dangerous. Because that was at a time when there was already a lot of misinformation going around in the black community. And we saw, you know, low vaccination rates. Ultimately, those vaccination rates came up to parity with the white community. But his words and his actions do have consequences. And it's really important that
Starting point is 00:54:25 people understand it's not just him going out there saying wacky things, that there are real life consequences for the dangerous conspiracy theories that he espouses. A couple of things just on issues, I would say he's gone back and forth on abortion. You know, he's said that he's open to supporting a ban after three months. And on gun control, he said that he does not support doing any more gun safety measures and that mass shootings are the result of antidepressants, not semi-automatic weapons. So this is a guy who is generally pretty far outside the mainstream. All of this is for naught if he doesn't actually end up on the ballot somewhere. Where is he getting on the ballot and how is he doing that? Who's paying for it, frankly? Well, this is by far the biggest obstacle that his campaign faces. And this speaks to why he
Starting point is 00:55:17 chose Nicole Shanahan to be his running mate, because he needs the money to fund his efforts to get on the ballot. Originally, he had planned to have his super PAC, American Values 2024, which is funded by Donald Trump's largest donor, Tim Mellon. He'd planned to have them do the signature collection, but then they realized there would be too many that they would run in violation of either state or federal law. So now the signature collection is going to be done by his campaign. Currently, they are only on the ballot in one state, Utah. They say they've collected enough signatures to get on the ballot in a number of other states. But just yesterday, we learned that in Nevada,
Starting point is 00:55:56 where they said they had enough signatures to get on the ballot, that they had missed that you have to have a name to vice president before you start collecting signatures. So we have a team that is devoted to keeping track of all this to make sure that they're playing by the rules and that if they get on the ballot, it's in a way that's legal and ethical. But this is very much the biggest obstacle that his campaign faces. And the fact that he chose a donor with the ability to self-fund indicates that he understands that he's going to need to dump a lot of money into this if he's going to be able to make it onto the ballots in these states. How much more time does he have in some of the key battleground states like Michigan,
Starting point is 00:56:38 Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, et cetera? So I think the earliest deadlines are in May, and that's with some of the swing states like North Carolina. Some of the deadlines stretch out till September. So this is going to be a long slog, and it's going to be something that we are keeping a close eye on. But obviously, we're going to keep a close eye on states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, you know, the states where— Just randomly selected six states. Exactly. Exactly. yeah.
Starting point is 00:57:06 I know that, as you said, you guys are going to watch this. During his seemingly seven-day speech today at this event, RFK Jr. kind of took an oblique shot at what I imagine was at you guys at the DNC saying that the parties are trying to keep him off the ballot. What's your response to the people like RFK Jr. or others who say that it's sort of anti-democratic to try to keep him off the ballot. What's your response to the people who, like RFK Jr. or others who say that it's sort of anti-democratic to try to keep him off the ballot? Well, he's like Trump. He's a guy that thrives on grievance.
Starting point is 00:57:34 He thrives on playing the victim. We're not trying to keep anyone off the ballot. We are just trying to make sure everyone plays by the same set of rules. And when there are a lot of people, you know, very wrongly raising questions about the integrity of our elections, we just want to make sure that everyone who is on the ballot is on the ballot through ethical and legal means. And then, you know what, if he's on the ballot, game on. We are ready for that fight. Maybe it's because I live here in the Bay Area. I run into a surprising number of people who are at least open to RFK Jr. Maybe they've seen some of his interviews on Instagram with wellness people. They've seen some of his YouTube stuff. What is your best advice based on your polling and messaging to someone who's trying to convince their cousin, friend, whoever else not to support RFK Jr.? What are the best talking
Starting point is 00:58:26 points? Yeah. So if they are choosing between RFK Jr. and Joe Biden, I think it's really important to make the point to them that he has no path to victory. He is playing the role of spoiler candidate in this race. And he is being backed by Donald Trump's largest donor with the purpose of siphoning votes away from Joe Biden to throw the election to Donald Trump. One, that's really important. The second point I'd make is that the people who know him best, you know, Kennedy family members, are not supporting him. And generally, you know, these two points I think are the most salient with Democrats who are leaning his way. these two points I think are the most salient with Democrats who are leaning his way. And third,
Starting point is 00:59:13 to raise the stakes of what happens if he can play the role of spoiler. Do you really want another four years of, you know, a con man chaos agent like Donald Trump in the White House? It's really important to raise the stakes, point out he's a spoiler, has no path to 270, and that we really can't afford another four years of Donald Trump. And if the person you're talking to is choosing between RFK Jr. and Trump, the talking points is obviously that RFK Jr. is a visionary leader who's really tough on the border. Is that right? Right. Exactly. Exactly. He's too conservative for America. That's right. He's just like six inches to the right of Tucker Carlson. Exactly. You know, as I mentioned at the top, you were working with the DNC on a whole effort that
Starting point is 00:59:53 is focused on third-party candidates, not just RFK Jr., but whether that could include Green Party candidates, a no-labels candidacy, Cornel West, who's running. This is the first time in my memory that the DNC has had such an effort. Obviously, because of what happened in 2016, where the margin of some of the third-party candidates was larger than Trump's victory margin in some of the battleground states. It's kind of obviously why you're doing it. But what are you guys working on beyond RFK Jr.? What's the plan here? It's to really keep an eye on, you know, all the third party independent candidates running in 2024. And, you know, after 2000, when Ralph Nader helped throw the election to George W.
Starting point is 01:00:34 Bush, after 2016, where, you know, candidates like Jill Stein helped throw the election to Donald Trump, I think it's really, really important that we do start to pay attention to candidates other than just the major party candidates. Because even though third party and independent candidates might not be able to win, they might be able to throw the election to the Republicans, to Donald Trump. And frankly, I'm almost surprised that it has taken us this long to do it, but it is really, really important. And so we're going to be watching who gets on the ballot where. We're going to make sure that we are communicating with voters who might be sympathetic, might be open to those voters, and laying out the choice
Starting point is 01:01:16 ahead of them. That ultimately, this election is a binary. It's between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and that a vote for Jill Stein, a vote for RFK Jr. versus a vote for Joe Biden ends up being a vote for Donald Trump, and we cannot afford another four years of Donald Trump. Okay, last question for you, Liz. You are famously a huge Cincinnati Bengals fan. huge Cincinnati Bengals fan. Were you a little disappointed that Aaron Rodgers would be spending his fall on the football field instead of on the campaign trail with RFK Jr.? You know what?
Starting point is 01:01:52 I grew up a Jets fan. My brothers have season tickets to the Jets. And last year, I think he lasted like 11 minutes into the first game of the season. Ruined several of my fantasy teams, yeah. And it broke my brother's heart. So, you know, I had really conflicted feelings about it, but I think overall I am glad that we're going to see him on the football field
Starting point is 01:02:15 and not on the campaign trail. And I hope, just for my brother's sake, that he has a better season than the last season. But there's no doubt that it would have been very, very entertaining to watch him as a vice presidential candidate. But again, this speaks to the type of campaign that R.F. Green Jr. is running, right? That these were the people in line. None of these people were serious candidates. It seems like all that he was attracted to was celebrity and their willingness to embrace conspiracy
Starting point is 01:02:45 theories. And, you know, this is not someone who is a serious candidate for president. Liz Smith, thank you so much. Always great to talk to you. And we'll talk to you again soon. Yep. Thanks for having me, Dan. Thanks to Sarah Longwell and Liz Smith, and we'll talk to you all next week. If you want to get ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and more, consider joining our Friends of the Pod subscription community at crooked.com slash friends. And if you're already doom-scrolling, don't forget to follow us at Pod Save America on Instagram, Twitter, and YouTube for access to full episodes, bonus content, and more.
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