Pod Save America - Iowa Episode 5: Voting is not enough

Episode Date: January 28, 2020

In the final episode of this five-part series on the Iowa caucuses, we take you back to Iowa one last time for the final sprint before caucus day. We explore how impeachment is impacting the campaigns, attend events with major surrogates like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and talk with Iowa elected officials about who they will endorse. Finally, we’ll walk you through the results of our exclusive Iowa poll, map out possible paths to victory for the leading candidates, and check in one last time with the true heroes of these campaigns, the field organizers. This series is hosted by Tommy Vietor and produced by Pineapple Street Studios.

Posse of America in Iowa is brought to you by ZipRecruiter. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hawaii, Utah, Nebraska, D.C., and West Virginia are the states, one of those is not a state, I love it, experiencing the highest wage growth. But while higher wages attract more and better candidates, competition for talent remains intense. So if you need to find the best candidate for your growing business, ZipRecruiter is your smart, efficient hiring solution. From healthcare to manufacturing to professional and business services, ZipRecruiter makes hiring great people faster and easier. And right now you can try ZipRecruiter for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash crooked. When you go to ZipRecruiter.com slash crooked, with one click, you send your job to ZipRecruiter's network

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get a quality candidate within the first day. So try it right now for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash Crooked. If you go to ZipRecruiter.com slash Crooked today, you can try ZipRecruiter for free, and we will get credit for sending you. So once again, ZipRecruiter.com slash Crooked. This, to me, feels like a real Iowa caucus event. Small town, someone's home, it's snowing, it's beautiful. I'm excited.

Should we go in? Yep. Hi. Hello. How are you? We were looking for you. Amy Klobuchar's campaign has been hosting hot dish parties all across Iowa. These are lunchtime gatherings to hear about the candidate, and they're usually at supporters' houses. Hot dish, if you don't know, is Midwestern for casserole.

The host made one with tater tots, ground beef, and cheese. Two cheeses, actually. It's Amy Klobuchar's personal recipe. Now, it's also half pepper jack and half cheddar jack. That is because not everybody eats jalapenos. So, Amy's real recipe is on the jalapeno side, okay? The rest is a more standard Minnesota hot dish. Iowa, where people think pepper jack cheese is too spicy. Janie Pryke was hosting the event with her husband, Jim,

but she wasn't ready to tell us who she'd be supporting. In your own mind, you have a person. Oh, yes. Actually, in my own mind, I have my first one. If that winds up not being viable, I've got my second one. And if that winds up not being viable, I have a third. Yeah, I'm ready for caucus. We thought we were ready, too.

A few months ago, this final episode seemed pretty straightforward. You fly to Iowa, you hit as many candidate events as possible, capture that frenetic pace of the final weeks, and then this happened. I'd love to be out there, shaking hands and hugging people and answering folks' questions. I have a constitutional responsibility to be here in Washington. I would rather be in Iowa today. There's a caucus there in two and a half weeks, but I swore a constitutional oath. We were prepared for this.

That's why my husband and daughter are there right now. But I have a constitutional duty. The people in these early states are going to understand that I have to do my job. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, they were all stuck in D.C. for the impeachment hearings. Surprisingly, Mayor Pete and Vice President Biden weren't in Iowa either. I thought they would park in the state and take full advantage of having Iowa to themselves, but the only one really working it was Andrew Yang. As you listen to this, Andrew Yang is still in the midst of a 17-day

Iowa bus tour. It felt a little weird to me to have so few candidates in town, but I'll be honest that this race has felt weird from the very beginning. I keep waiting for things to clarify and for the field to shrink, but it just never seems to. The one thing I can say for sure is that no one, not the pundits, not campaign staffers, not reporters, knows how this is going to end. I'm Tommy Vitor, and this is the final episode of a special Pod Save America series about the Iowa caucuses.

The other thing I'll say is that we threw this episode together really fast, just to give you guys a sense of what it's like in Iowa right now. I got back like 48 hours ago. I ate a lot of tater tots. I drove in a lot of snow and had a few final conversations with some of the hardest working field organizers in the game. It's going to be the absolute freshest voices from Iowa that we could bring you. Okay, if you've been listening to this series, you know Olivia Ellis. She's a

field organizer for the Warren campaign. Last Thursday, we went back to visit her at Warren's headquarters in Ames, Iowa. So tonight, as soon as you get home, reach out to your team. Make sure that you tell them that you're the precinct captain if you haven't already told them. out to your team. Make sure that you tell them that you're the precinct captain if you haven't already told them. When we arrived, Olivia was training about a dozen precinct captains, most of them double or triple her age. These are the people who will be running the Warren Corner in the almost 1,700 rooms across the state on caucus night. While we were waiting for Olivia to be finished, we met a volunteer named Jamie. So when I was eight years old, my family lost their house in the financial crisis, and we were homeless until I was 14. Oh my god. And her creating the CFPB showed me that there are people in Washington who care about people like me.

I want to grow up and I want to be Elizabeth Warren for somebody else. I feel like you're on your way. For all the talk in the media about electability and poll numbers, it was an important reminder of how personal this choice is for so many people. When Olivia wrapped up her training, we sat down with her in a small windowless room that just reeked of printer toner. Toner number five on the day. They've been cranking out hundreds of walk packets for door knocking. Yeah, so how you doing? We're like 11 days out. I am great. I have, no, I really do have a lot of hope and I was able to find my precinct captains before Christmas. And so I've just been building my team and they've been training their own teams.

And so I have all the confidence in the world in them. So that's helpful. If I didn't have my precinct captains, I might be freaking out right now, but I do feel slightly calm. So we just did a precinct captain training. Why are the people we just met so important? And like, what do these teams do for you? Yeah, so on caucus night,

there are gonna be roughly 1,700 precincts that are 100% volunteer-led. And so, you know, the organizers, the staff, we're not going to be in those rooms. And so whatever happens is up to our captains. And so we want to make sure that they're trained to get as many people in the corner as possible. We've talked about this before, but I want to remind you of how the caucuses work. We've talked about this before, but I want to remind you of how the caucuses work. You show up at your precinct at the designated time, and you literally stand in the corner where your candidate's supporters are gathering, and you get counted.

If your candidate has support from more than 15% of the people in that room, he or she is considered viable, and you are locked in as a supporter of that person. If your candidate does not have the support of 15% of the people in that precinct, your candidate is not viable and you have to realign. That means you either go home or you pick another corner to stand in and back your second choice candidate who did meet that viability threshold. It's so weird to think that there's scenarios where there could be like four or five people viable in a precinct. Like, are you, do you even try to game that out? Is it even worth thinking about? Or is it just like, get our people there? I mean, here's the thing. We've been here for almost a year. And so we've been building relationships with these people on the ground for a year now. And so even if they commit to other candidates, they know who we are.

And our precinct captains have built relationships with other precinct captains from other teams. And we know that if other candidates are not viable, hopefully they'll end up in our corner at the end of the night. And so that's really what we want to be planning for is being the nicest team in the field so that people feel not only comfortable, but excited coming into our corner if their first choice isn't able to make it. Do you have a closing argument pitch that you've been honing for 10 months? How long have you been here? Oh, my gosh. Yeah, 10 months.

And now we have 11 days. That is crazy. Oh, my God. My closing argument. I mean, here's the thing. I hope that we have built these badass teams so that an Iowan walks into that room on caucus night and sees our corner and electability just flies out the window. I hope that's what happens. They walk into that room and say, oh, I see my neighbors standing

proudly in that corner. I'm going to go into that corner. I feel like if they walk in the room and they see the most people in your corner, that kind of is an electability argument in and of itself. Exactly. You've been living every day of your life for February 3rd for 10 months. I know that like what happens that day is kind of the only thing that matters in some ways, but like, have you been able to pause with this group of people, like your best friends and reflect on what you guys have done and how meaningful it is? on what you guys have done and how meaningful it is? I think we, yeah, I mean, we do sometimes this office is buzzing and we just kind of look around and see what we built. Like when you walked in, there was a team of precinct captains

sitting around a table talking about their game plan for their final meetings with their teams. And I think in those moments you can't help but look around and see what you built. And I think it's really special. You were very authoritative at that meeting. Was I? Yeah.

You got a bunch of older people, like some seniors, some professors, a professor of professors at the ag school. And they were just like taking notes, listening to you. You're not fucking around. I mean, absolutely not. Nope. Where are you going to be on Cox Night? I have absolutely no idea. I don't have answers.

You can lock that one down maybe. Okay. I think we will probably be in this office putting out fires. out fires. Like I know in 2016, our deputy organizing director, Chelsea, tells a story of how in one of her precincts, the caucus chair showed up like visibly drunk. So she had to go and like run a caucus. So I think we're just going to be sitting here waiting for one of those fires to happen inevitably. Speaking of visibly drunk, that is how I spent most of my time after losing on campaigns. But that was not the case with Mitch. You guys remember Mitch Smith from the Booker campaign. The last time we talked, he was preparing for Senator Booker to speak at the

Liberty and Justice Dinner. But on January 13th, Senator Booker suspended his campaign, citing challenges raising money and qualifying for the debates and the fact that he was going to have to be in D.C. for impeachment. But far from wallowing in self-pity, Mitch and Booker's Iowa team had spent their time volunteering at a food bank, thanking supporters, and hitting doors for other candidates. We caught up with Mitch at a coffee shop in Des Moines. So last time we talked, it was before center booker decided to drop out of the race can i just first just ask you like how did you how'd you learn the news yeah um so i i woke up i think to a calendar invite for an all-staff call uh which was not you know at the usual time we would have an all-staff call so you know i pretty pretty highly suspected what was going

to happen um and so everyone across the country got on a Google Hangout together. And Corey came in and told everyone that he was suspending the campaign. And, of course, thanked everyone for all their hard work. And then our campaign manager, Adisu, did the same. And it was a tough day. Definitely a lot of sadness. It was a tough day. Definitely a lot of sadness.

You know, but also a time for, like, our staff here in Iowa all got together right after and, you know, spent a lot of time together kind of reflecting and being sad together, but also celebrating what we had done, too. Do you drive from the conference call to the bar? Or, like, how does that go? To brunch, where I was greeted with a shot of tequila. Nice. What do you tell the folks? I mean, you guys have to go through this conference call,

which I'm sure is just brutal and heartbreaking. Do you try to reach out to volunteers and precinct captains before the news becomes public? So the news became public very shortly after the conference call, but I didn't have to reach out to them because I just got a flood of texts and calls and emails and Facebook messages from all these people who I had gotten to know so, so, so well. And that was probably the hardest part of that day was trying to figure out how to respond to each one of them in the way that they deserved.

I mean, we built the whole campaign on this idea of relational organizing. And that means that when the relationships get close to ending, it's really, really hard. I've been over to, you know, multiple of my volunteers, you know, houses for dinner to, to kind of start to say goodbye. And, you know, I'm not, haven't left yet, but it's, it's, it's a really, really hard process. And, you know, I mean, if any of them are listening, I would love for them to know how much I appreciated them. And it's really hard to be an organizer on a campaign. The hours are really long.

And getting told, you know, no, go away or being hung up on so many times is really hard. And having these people come in and donate their time and energy is the most inspirational thing ever. So just so, so thankful for everything they did. When you guys were sitting around, like talking about the campaign, like what are the things you're most proud of? A lot. And I have felt every single day since we ended, we set out months and months and months ago to build a really, really strong organization in Iowa. And as the campaign went along, we did exactly that. Like you recorded the Cabernet for Corey event back in August, I think.

Yeah, it was a great event. No one was committed. I think maybe we had one person who was committed to Corey at that event. And out of that, I got I think four of the five eventually committed. I got a precinct captain. I got someone who knocked doors every weekend. Like we set out to build this organization that, regardless of where the polls were, was going to work really, really

hard to make sure that Corey was the next president. And obviously, that's not going to happen, but we did what we set out to do. We built that organization. And I think that that organization too is going to last after Corey. We were training volunteers who are going to knock on doors to make sure that we win the Senate seat here in Iowa, make sure that we win the House races here in Iowa, make sure that we take back the Statehouse. We, you know, obviously are disappointed, but here in Iowa and our, you know,

organizing team across the country really feels very proud of what we did. Do you want to jump on another campaign? What are you thinking about what's next? Yeah, I mean, the fight is not over. I don't know yet what I'm doing. I got in this not only because I thought that Senator Booker was the best choice, but also because we're in a moment where nothing matters if we don't beat Trump

and don't take back the Senate and don't keep the house. Um, so I'm looking at a lot of, a lot of different potential next steps right now. I think I will, I will almost definitely be working on a campaign though. I'm not sure, you know, whether that means another presidential campaign or a house race or a Senate race. But yeah, I mean, if, if you're not, if you're not doing it, if you're not doing something, then, then, you know, you need to, you need to start doing something. If you're not doing something, then you need to start doing something. Yeah. So almost everyone who works on a campaign will lose by definition.

Do you have any message or advice to all the other campaigns that will soon be suspended? I think my message for people who've worked incredibly hard and will not end up winning is remember why you're doing this. And, you know, yeah, it doesn't always work out, but there's no better job to have right now. There's no more important job. So just know that it was worth it. And then keep working on another campaign until November. Adisu Demesi was Cory Booker's campaign manager. And like Mitch, he has no regrets, but he does have one critique. Can I use my platform here to talk about polling for a second?

Go off. By the way, if Adisu's audio sounds a little funky, it's because we FaceTimed him as he was in the bathroom when Cory Booker was next door making thank you calls to supporters. Like I said, this campaign is just top to bottom full of good people. Like I said, this campaign is just top to bottom full of good people. Let me just give my one minute diatribe about polling, which I actually think I don't hate pollsters. I think they do very important work. But polling is the bane of my existence and public polling. And here's why.

First of all, it just drives narrative. And polling, as we all know, is not predictive. It's just a thermometer. It is not a predictive tool. But because the DNC used it as a threshold issue for getting in the debates, it became so important to voters, actually, who became sort of pundits. One thing to know about polling and the debates is that not every poll counts for debate qualification.

So Booker did really well in some polls that, for various various arcane reasons didn't count to get him into the debates. That's still a big issue for some of the candidates on the bubble like Andrew Yang. He didn't qualify for the last debate in Iowa. There is a awful feedback loop with public polling that I think we just got to get our arms around and figure out because otherwise you're never going to allow a real grassroots campaign to emerge. I mean, Andrew Yang, like, come on. We want all those Yang folks. Like, I desperately want them to become Democrats.

And we are basically telling them right now he can't poll high enough so you don't count. Like, that's crazy to me. So anyway, I'll get off my soapbox. The good news for the Yang gang is he'll actually be back on the debate stage in February after he hit 5% in a qualifying poll this weekend. While the campaigns try to do everything possible to win the Iowa caucuses, the Iowa Democratic Party is working overtime just to make sure that they happen. Troy Price is the chair of the Iowa Democratic Party.

His team is responsible for making sure that every one of the nearly 1,700 precinct caucuses has a big enough location, they have the right forms, the results get reported back in a timely manner, and just generally making sure that things run smoothly. Given the stakes involved, I thought Troy's office in Des Moines was going to be a madhouse, but it was not. I feel good. I feel good.

You know, we're what? Today we're 11 days out from caucus day. And it's hard to believe that we're already here because, I mean, we've been preparing for this, I mean, in earnest since the day after the election last year or in 2018. But honestly, as a party, we've been preparing for this since the day after the caucuses in 2016. been preparing for this since the day after the caucuses in 2016. One big change since 2016, which we talked about in more detail in an earlier episode, is that the party is going to release more data on caucus night than ever before. They'll release the raw vote totals after the first count, then the raw vote totals after the second count, which is after the realignment period, and the delegate numbers. Ultimately, the Iowa caucuses are a competition to see who can get the most delegates. So is the entire primary process. But this year, you could see a scenario where a candidate who doesn't get the most delegates does get the

highest raw vote total. And then it's just off to the races to spin the press on which is more important. When we come back, we'll see how the Klobuchar and Sanders campaigns are filling the void while the bosses are stuck in Washington. Pate of America in Iowa is brought to you by Feels. Feels. Feels. Do you experience stress? Do you have anxiety or chronic pain or have trouble sleeping at least once a week? I always read this copy the night after I don't sleep at all.

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It's Friday morning, 10 days out from the Iowa caucuses. Amy Klobuchar is in D.C. watching a whole bunch of Republicans pretend that Donald Trump isn't guilty. Her daughter, Abigail Bessler, though, is in Newton, Iowa, which is about 40 minutes east of Des Moines. When we told Mitch Smith and another former Booker staffer that we were going to a house party in Newton, they literally said, I bet it's the Prykekes house on such and such street, and they were right. There were about 30 people there for hot dish and the chance to hear from Bessler. She's 24 years old, she's poised, she's funny, and she stood on the house stairs near a very distinctive cuckoo clock that luckily only went off once, and she made the case for her mom.

cuckoo clock that luckily only went off once, and she made the case for her mom. Okay, well, thank you all for being here. I've been campaigning for my mom this week. As you may know, if you've been watching any of the national news, she has a little bit of a scheduling conflict this week. So I'm out here on her behalf. As she said, she's a mom, so she can do two things at once. Being a can-do mom is a big part of Amy Klobuchar's pitch out here. Bessler said she'd been trying to think of some embarrassing stories about her mom to tell because Amy always trots out stories about her. But as I was thinking through stories to tell about my mom today, and I really did try to come up with some embarrassing stories,

I really actually just kept coming back to one story, which is a story of when I was born, which is actually the story of how my mom got into politics in the first place. So when I was born, I was really sick. I actually couldn't swallow for the first year and a half of my life. I had a feeding tube, and my mom, just 24 hours after giving birth, was kicked out of the hospital because at the time, the insurance rules were that you just got kicked out in 24 hours no matter what. I was still in the intensive care unit at the time.

So she couldn't believe that, and she actually went out and advocated. She wasn't an elected official. She was just a mom and got the first law in the country passed to guarantee new moms and their babies a 48-hour hospital stay, which then became national law. After she finished talking, Bessler took questions from the crowd. Some of them were what you'd expect. I've got two questions.

One, where does Amy stand on pro-choice and Duncan Crowe? So my mom has always been pro-choice. While others were a little more niche. I hear people that don't support her say they don't like her stand on taking wolves off the endangered species list in Minnesota. Iowa. Hot dish and high heat on wolf policy. From the Prykes house, we headed further east to Iowa City. We wanted to check out the campaign we've been hearing about all weekend, Bernie Sanders. Everyone we talked to said that it just felt like they were operating off the grid.

Bernie's not using the same apps and tools as the rest of the field, so other campaigns aren't really able to track their work. And they've been investing in turning out new voters, and those people aren't necessarily showing up in the call lists that everyone else is using. And so the people we talked to felt like either the Sanders campaign

has this huge operation that they can't see or they don't. And we just won't know until caucus night. But if the event I went to on Friday night is any indicator, Iowa City is certainly feeling the burn. I took a pill and he beat me. night as any indicator, Iowa City is certainly feeling the burn. I took a pill and he beat me up.

To show Avicii I was cool. And when I finally got sober, felt 10 years older, oh fuck it, it was something to do. It was snowy, it was cold, and Bernie Sanders himself wasn't even there. But that didn't stop about 800 people from showing up at the University of Iowa campus anyway. Mike Posner played an acoustic set, and then Bernie called in from Washington on a super shitty phone line. But no one really seemed to mind, because he had a pretty high-wattage surrogate lined up. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. I spent so many years of my life scared. I spent so many years of my life scared.

I spent years of my life scared that I wasn't going to be able to make rent at the end of the month, scared that I might get sick and not afford a doctor, scared that the lights might be turned off on my mom's house when I get home. I'm sick of being scared. I want to solve these problems once and for all. We should not be scared of what will happen if we try. We should be scared of what will happen if we try. We should be scared of what will happen if we don't. She was, she is, really good. Really good. And she gave a pitch to everyone in that room to give as

much as they can over the next 10 days. We've got 10 days left. 10 days. days left. Ten days. So with that said, we have ten days left. I want every person in this room to ask, what do we have to give in the next ten days? It could be canvassing every day. It could be talking to your neighbor. And even if you cannot caucus in 10 days, you still have something to give. Maybe you can babysit for your neighbor while they go off after a long day of work in order to caucus. We all have something to give, and all of us have power. Now, it's important not to read too much into a campaign getting big crowds. Lots of caucus goers attend events for candidates they don't ultimately support. And lots of people just probably wanted to see AOC speak. Clarity Guerra was there,

even though she's definitely going to caucus for Elizabeth Warren. I will be caucusing for Elizabeth Warren, but I'm very excited to be here tonight. And also just, you know, feel solidarity with the groups that have kind of been faux warring. I don't want that feeling to persist. And I want us to all feel like we're on the same team. We all want to defeat Trump. But whether or not that whole crowd was for Sanders, it is undeniably impressive to get that many people out on a freezing cold Friday night. And if just a handful of those people leave as Bernie supporters or sign up for a canvassing shift, it really adds up. Bernie's campaign later told me people signed up

for over 300 new volunteer shifts at just that one rally. Ari Rabenhop is the deputy campaign manager for the Sanders campaign. I told him that we'd heard from a bunch of other campaigns that they just don't have a handle on what Bernie is doing. A lot of folks are bracing for Bernie's team to sneak up on the Macacus night. It's not, I don't think it's a sneak up. We've been pretty transparent about our hands. And I think the problem is people don't buy it until, by the way, they come to a room like this where Bernie Sanders isn't going to be and a thousand people show up in the room. And then they're like, oh. Bill Neidhart is the Iowa deputy state director for the Sanders campaign.

He says there are a few reasons they might be flying a little under the radar. One is relational organizing. We've talked about this before because the Warren and Buttigieg campaigns are leaning on relational organizing, too. That means having your supporters call their friends, call their family, and not just calling through the traditional voter rolls. But I will say, relational is part of a program. It's hugely important in Iowa. But the most important thing, just think about it, is the brute force of having the largest volunteer base. Like, that's our singular biggest advantage in Iowa, is that we have more volunteers.

It's as simple as that. Here's Ari again. If you want to talk about other interesting pieces of Iowa, I think us targeting communities that typically get left out of the Iowa caucus has been and targeting them in very specific ways the Latino community in Iowa which is strong and growing Bernie Sanders has a huge base among Latino voters across the United States and there's a significant portion in Iowa that have not caucused before and if you can drive them out to caucus it changes the dynamic of the caucus a few thousand people is a lot in the state people in a precinct that doesn't get a lot of turnout is a big deal. Yeah. And so the numbers where this is really clear is the Latino community here.

2016, depending on the estimates, you have between 1,500 and 3,000 Latinos who caucused. You look at the actual population, we're talking about over 50,000 registered voters who are Latino. So, I mean, that is a massive gap. And that's, you know, turning out that difference, you are playing with multiple percentage points of the actual outcome for the caucus. Bernie's campaign strategy sounded pretty familiar to me because that's the approach we took on the Obama campaign in 2008. We knew that if we just focused our efforts on traditional caucus goers, we would get killed. So we had to find and turn out new people. Everyone said Obama couldn't do it, but that's how he won.

Can Bernie replicate that success? We just won't know until Monday night. So there are probably a lot of people listening to this episode and thinking, Tommy, just shut up and tell us who's going to win. And while we still have a no predictions rule here at Pod Save America, here is what I will do for you. First, I'm going to walk you guys through the results of an Iowa poll we did with Change Research that we did exclusively for this episode. episode. And then I'm going to bounce some of the cases I heard from campaign staffers and pundits and reporters for how each major candidate could win or do better than expected. And to keep me honest, I brought in my Pod Save America co-host and Polar Coaster fellow writer, John Favreau,

for a gut check on what's actually realistic. John, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me. Let's ride that Polar Coaster. Welcome to Des Moines, almost. Okay, first, the poll results. So here are the show. Thanks for having me. Let's ride that polar coaster. Welcome to Des Moines, almost. Okay, first the poll results. So here are the numbers. Bernie Sanders, 27%. Mayor Pete, 19%. Joe Biden, 18%. Elizabeth Warren, 15%. Amy Klobuchar, 10%. Yang and Steyer have 4% each. So that is a sizable eight-point lead for Bernie Sanders. And it tracks with other polls that show him leading in the Iowa caucuses right now. Interestingly, Bernie is way ahead with 18 to 34 year olds. And he even leads narrowly in our poll with 50 to 64 year olds. Biden finally takes the lead with caucus goers over 65. Now,

some notes about the sampling. The New York Times poll estimates that 48% of caucus goers will be under 50. Our poll, the Change poll, estimates that only 38% of caucus goers will be under 50, which is closer to the estimates I've heard from some of the rival campaigns to Bernie. So it's just worth noting that if there is a surge of young people, it's likely that Sanders will win even bigger than this poll says. But here is a huge caveat. 48% of caucus goers say they could still change their minds and 52% haven't made up their minds or did so in the last month. So, John, pretty good news for Bernie Sanders here. Yeah, it's really, really good news. I mean,

I was interested in this poll because we have, I think the two best polls that are out there right now are the Des Moines Register poll and the New York Times-Santa College poll. And I was wondering if ours would look more like that or more like some of the other ones that showed Biden in the lead. And they certainly look more like the gold standard polls that show Bernie leading. And what you just mentioned about the age groups really stuck with me, that the fact that Bernie is leading among every age group up to 64 years old shows that, like you said, whatever the turnout is among young people, it basically could mean a difference between Bernie winning by what we're seeing in this poll or even more. Yeah. And you were saying you saw some interesting things about what happens after realignment. Yeah. So the other thing, we asked people in our poll, just choose between these

four candidates, Bernie, Biden, Pete, and Warren, because those were the four candidates over viability threshold just to see what reallocation might look like. And it turns out that no candidate, no one candidate benefits disproportionately from reallocation, which is even better news for Bernie Sanders, because there was some talk that after reallocation, maybe Klobuchar supporters or some of the other ones go to a moderate like Biden and boost him. But it turns out that it boosts everyone equally. Yeah, I mean, honestly, the best news for Bernie maybe in all these polls is that he has a bunch of rival candidates who are splitting the so-called moderate vote. And there's a prisoner's dilemma here that's shaping up well for him.

Okay, let me run by you a couple best case scenarios for each of the major candidates for how they could win or do well. Cool. So Bernie Sanders, we kind of just did this one. He's leading our poll. He's leading the New York Times poll, the CBS poll. His supporters over time have been rock solid. They're least likely to jump ship. And Pete Biden and Amy Klobuchar are splitting the moderate vote.

So that's a pretty good case for Bernie there. Yeah. And I think the other thing I'd add to that is the one candidate who's been losing the most altitude in all these polls is Elizabeth Warren, who has been, and basically Bernie has been gaining from her loss more than any other candidate. Yeah. Joe Biden. So he's the best known. He's arguably the most experienced. And in a state where all anyone cares about is so-called electability, you could see late deciding voters break to his corner because they think he's the guy who can beat Trump. So the New York Times had a story yesterday morning. A third of people who participated

in an Iowa Democratic primary in 16 or 18, the primary, not the caucus, said they weren't likely to caucus this time around. And those voters backed Biden by 11 points. So some of these polls may be showing Biden ahead because he has voters who are less committed, even though they're older. So Biden could win if he actually mobilizes some of these older, less committed voters. That's tough news for Biden because, you know, I don't think many observers have seen him with a particularly strong organization that could mobilize those voters. All right. Mayor Pete. So he effectively capitalized on early press attention and money. And he started running TV ads in Iowa to build name ID. He's also put together a strong organization. He's

carved out a moderate sort of unifying position that appeals to Iowa caucus goers. So you could still see him surprising people here, I think. Yeah. And I think geographically, he has some of the most evenly distributed support. The other thing I thought was interesting from our poll is we asked people, do you want a candidate who can beat Donald Trump or a candidate who will change Washington in a big way? And beat Donald Trump is Biden and Klobuchar supporters, which is not surprising. Change Washington is Bernie and Warren. But Pete is also change Washington, his supporters by a large margin. So Pete could actually benefit from people who both want to beat Trump and change Washington. Interesting. Elizabeth Warren.

So she was leading for a while, but then she took some shots on Medicare for All and dipped in the polls. She's rebounded a bit in the latest Des Moines Register poll. She also got some late momentum with endorsements from The New York Times, or at least half of it, in the Des Moines Register. And she has what I believe to be the strongest organization that can help capture that support and put her over the top. That's probably her best case. Yes, that and in our poll, she is everyone's second choice pretty much. She's the second choice of most people's candidates. So she can capture some enthusiasm in this final week.

Like you said, the organization and the endorsements could put her over the top. Amy Klobuchar. She's close strong. She had strong debate performances. She got the other half of the New York Times editorial board's endorsement. She got some Iowa newspaper endorsements. She has a bunch of electeds who support her in Iowa. And there's sort of a Minnesota cultural affinity and electability argument that she's been making that you could see leading to her having a surprisingly strong finish and then going on to the later states. Yeah, biggest plus for Amy Klobuchar in our poll, late momentum. One out of every four people who've made up their minds in the last week have gone to Klobuchar. Wow, that's great news for her. Okay, Andrew Yang, the Yang gang. No one has outworked Andrew Yang in Iowa in this final stretch. And like everybody likes Andrew Yang. You don't hear a lot of people who don't like him. He's doing four or five town

halls a day. He's doing it for 17 days straight. And he's bringing new people into the process that don't look like traditional caucus goers. Now, it's unlikely that he'll win, but he may pick up some delegates. He may be a spoiler in some precincts. And that might really help him propel himself to the next contest. Yeah, I think that's right. What I'm watching for on Yang is it seems like there could be some overlap with Yang supporters and maybe even Bernie supporters. So I wonder what he does to Bernie's margin. Yeah, that's interesting to me, too.

John, you'll love this one. Lastly, there's the total clusterfuck scenario. This is where you have one candidate win the delegates. You have another win the raw vote total. A bunch of them are kind of grouped together and close in the final margin, and they just limp along until New Hampshire and things just get nastier and nastier. the final margin and they just limp along until New Hampshire and things just get nastier and nastier. We haven't talked about this enough, I think, and because it could be the most likely scenario. And even if Bernie wins a clear in the raw percentage, Bernie wins, I think the way delegates could get split, like what if Bernie only wins one or two more delegates than the

next candidate? Then we're just moving on and that's it. John, thanks for being here. On that hopeful note, there is one more loop we have to close on this series. Back in the third episode, we talked to the Iowa State Auditor and my pseudo doppelganger, Rob Sand. He talked about the campaigns seeking his endorsement and his struggle making up his mind. Rob was one of the few Democrats to win statewide in Iowa in 2018, and so he's a coveted get. And I wanted to check in with him and just see what he was thinking.

We caught up with Rob in his enormous, gorgeous office in the Iowa State Capitol, which is full of taxidermy of deer and other things that he's bowhunted. I have said I don't think I'm going to endorse. I still think that that's true. But my brain is just always thinking about stuff. And it could happen that I wake up at 3 in the morning next week

and I'm like, this is the right thing to do and here's the reason why that I just realized. But right now, I keep coming back to this. We have so little ability to pick the right horse, right? And so much of choosing sides seems to be about picking the right horse. But this is not a horse race. This is not a bet. This is supposed to be us making sure that we win back the White House and that

American values are upheld and the American traditions are upheld. And those are the stakes in 2020. And then I keep coming back to this. Citizens need to be looking for sacrifice, not for saviors. There is no one person that if we select the right person, we can then put our feet up and say, ha ha, we've outwitted you. Look who we nominated. It doesn't work that way. And I don't want to participate in the system that seems to right now be so heavily favored towards looking for a savior. I want to tell people like, let's expect sacrifices. There's this guy, Steve Fredrickson in Jasper County, who quit his part time job in the run up to the 18 elections to volunteer full time. So he literally just said,

you know what? I can work after election day. You know what I can't do? Make phone calls, knock doors. Voting is not enough. I mean, we have to have people who are activated in ways they never have and making sacrifices the way that Steve Fredrickson did in 18 to make sure that we win this. For whoever's listening, whoever does care, that's what I want them to hear me say, that we need to make a sacrifice. And so our own desires, we need to negate. And so in that sense, I negate my own desires. Could I do the hard thinking of deciding who my actual favorite is and make an endorsement? Yes, I could.

But if I did that at the end of the day, what I'm saying is this is the person that we pick. And what I would rather have people hear me say is it's not about who we pick. It's about who we are and what we actually do to make sure that we win for whoever the nominee is. I've said all along that the field organizers are the lifeblood of these campaigns and that they are the most important people in all of this. So I want to give them the last word. Here's Mitch Smith again. There's a lot of reason to be scared and worried right now, but I think there's also a lot of reason to be very hopeful. And I was lucky because I got to see

the on-the-ground reality of people exercising their ability to make change. And that's an ability that no matter what the hell crazy shit Trump is doing, we still have a chance to do. And so we better do it. And here's Olivia Ellis. Please come volunteer.

I mean, this is, it's like a four-way tie, basically. And organizing means so much right now. And so if you believe in Elizabeth Warren's vision of what this country can be, like, come do something about it. Turn off this podcast and come knock doors. Sorry. Yes, that's how we're ending the show. Get your ass to Iowa for a weekend. Sorry. Yes. That's how we're ending the show. Get your ass to Iowa for repairs.

Yeah. Yeah. Now, I'm not here to tell you to go support Warren or any other candidate. That's Olivia's job. But I want you guys to support the person

who feels right to you. And just to know that it is not too late. I mean, literally, if you are listening to this right now, it is not too late to help the campaign and the candidate you believe in.

It's not too late to go to Iowa. You can drive there. You can fly there for that last weekend. You can make calls from your house and send texts from wherever you are. It is definitely, definitely not too late for New Hampshire or Super Tuesday or the general election. Because I know that Olivia and Mitch are going to do the work, but we will only win this election if the rest of us do too. And I can tell you, you know, Donald Trump and his cohort has been organizing for almost four years now for this. And so people, you know, will say, oh, there's a lot of time. And, you know, you really don't have time. Like, think back to how you felt the morning after the 2016 election and think about what more you could have done. Like, you know, pick up the call from your organizer.

Knock one packet. You know, it really means all the difference. So. I'm Tommy Vitor. This series is produced by Kat Aaron. Production help from Justine Daum, and Aga Ranish, a Chagre. Joel Lovell is our editor. Music and mixing by Hannes Brown.

The executive producers at Pineapple Street Studios are Jenna Weiss-Berman and Max Linsky. Thanks also to Maria Robbins-Somerville and Alexis Moore. A special thank you to Tanya Somanator, Sarah Wick, Michael Martinez, Kyle Seiglin, Brian Semel, Nikki Fancy, and Jordan Silber from the Crooked Media team. How long are you guys here? Oh, was I supposed to be quiet? Bye.