Pod Save America - My Ohio, My Choice

Episode Date: August 10, 2023

Ohio voters resoundingly defeat a Republican ballot initiative that threatened democracy and abortion rights. Donald Trump is headed back to court while he awaits a fourth indictment and possibly even more criminal charges. Ron DeSantis shakes up his campaign, again. Donald Trump debates debating. And later, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer stops by to talk about the one year anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act and everything happening on Capitol Hill. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail] and include the name of the podcast.

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. And I'm Alyssa Mastromonaco. Jon Favreau is off today. Alyssa, thank you so much for joining us. I have to say, I was quite jealous when I was on my vacation and I saw that you were filling in for me, which I thought meant we would not be able to podcast together while Jon was off. Oh, and I have to tell you, my heart was full when I heard you were jealous. I was quite jealous. But here we are, our limited opportunities to pod together. We are doing it.

So on today's pod, Donald Trump has headed back to court while he awaits a fourth indictment. Ron DeSantis shakes up his campaign again. Trump debates debating. And then Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer joins me to talk about the Inflation Reduction Act, Tommy Tuberville, and UFOs. But first, in a huge victory for abortion rights, voters in Ohio on Tuesday resoundingly defeated Issue 1, a cynical attempt to prevent Ohioans from amending the Constitution to include the right to an abortion in November. With a turnout of more than 3 million voters, Ishiwom was defeated 57-43, a huge margin in a state that Trump won by 10 points in the last two elections.

Alyssa, this is great news. How are you feeling? My uterus is dancing, Pfeiffer. I am so excited. I'm so excited about this. Here's the thing. When are Republicans going to learn trying to pull jiggery pokery in August is not going to work for them? They tried this last summer in Kansas, and they got whooped 60-40. And here they are again. So I am very happy. Also, fight for abortion motivates people. Reproductive rights is motivating people to the polls.

And so I was very excited by this news. I mean, just to put it in perspective, the nearly 3 million votes that were cast is nearly twice as many votes as were counted in the state's primary elections in 2022 when there were huge races for governor and Senate and House up for grabs. So the turnout is unbelievable.

Republicans specifically picked this theoretically sleepy Tuesday in August when people are getting ready to go back to school or on vacation to try to slip one past the pro-choice majority in Ohio, and they failed, and they failed miserably. Yeah. It was really sad for them. Fuck around and find out. I will also say that when I put in the outline, Alyssa, how are you feeling? My uterus is dancing was not on my bingo card. I knew that. I knew that. I had to bring surprises. That's a failure on my part. I should have known. I should have known.

I'm also looking forward to the My Uterus is Dancing merch to come to the- You know it's a matter of time. To the- It's a matter of time. Yes, of course it is. Now, we want to be careful not to draw too much significance from one of these sort of irregularly scheduled special elections. But are there any lessons that you would take from these results that can be applied in Ohio nationally for the Democratic Party? I mean, I think that when Roe was about

to be overturned, or at least when the decision was, you know, leaked months before it actually came down, people were saying, oh, this isn't going to be such a big deal. Everyone's going to get used to it. It's going to be fine. And I think that we're seeing it's not fine. It's not fine among independents and swing voters. And it's actually not fine to get among some Republicans that, you know, here I think the Republicans are the dog that caught the car. And now they don't exactly know what to do. I think that they want some restrictions on abortion. I don't think anybody watching the cases, the case rather, that's happening down in Texas where women who were denied abortions are being asked to testify

about what happened to them. Listening to a woman who knew that her fetus was not going to survive and was forced to carry it to term. And then when she went to the hospital, was told, you have to be septic before we can treat you. I think that when a lot of folks envisioned bro being overturned, they didn't think that. And so I think that this is much more motivating than people think it will be. I think that candidates who hold extremely severe and extreme positions on abortion are becoming less and less desirable.

There are moments in political history that fundamentally shift the electoral balance in the country. They cause coalitions to move about. Civil rights was one of those. Ronald Reagan's presidency was another. Barack Obama's presidency was one. Dobbs currently looks like it is one of those moments that changes politics in a significant and sustainable way.

If you look at both the – where – and a couple – I think that's true in a couple of different vectors. One, the number of Americans who say they're pro-choice is at a record since Dobbs. The number of Americans who say they're anti-choice or describe themselves as quote unquote pro-life is at a nadir since Dobbs. The energy around the issue is stunning. The turnout in this election is mind-boggling. It's mind-boggling that 3 million people would turn out. This is the only thing on the ballot. There's nothing else.

There's no gubernatorial primary. There's no Senate primary. There was just abortion. And it was an issue that was disguised to try to make it not be about abortion. Right. Two, in the elections where we have had straight up abortion related ballot initiatives or constitutional referendum on the ballot. So that's Ohio, Kansas, Michigan, California, and a couple other places.

And in those places, the pro-abortion side of the argument outperformed Joe Biden's numbers from 2020. Right. So that means that it's a turnout driver. It means that there are some people who maybe did not vote in 2020 but have come out because they see their freedoms and their rights being taken away from them. I mean, it's just an absolutely dramatic thing. In Ohio, 20% of Trump counties voted against issue one.

And Ohio is a state that if you had asked anyone before Dobbs that it would have been a state where an abortion referendum would fail and fail miserably. And that logic was clearly wrong, but it was probably wrong then, but it's obviously wrong now. Dobbs has changed absolutely everything. And I think if you want to take a lesson from this for Democrats, it is that we are more than a year after the decision. Abortion is still clearly a driving, galvanizing issue in politics. But I don't think Democrats should assume that that will still be the case in 2024. It very well may be. But with every passing day, there's always a chance that something can recede further into the background. It could become less salient. And does it mean that there still won't be huge

majorities of people who care passionately about it and are driven by it? But the races are also narrow and we're operating on such thin margins that the argument here is we have to do everything we can to keep it on the top of the agenda. We have to argue that if you reelect Sherrod Brown and we expand our Senate majority and keep the White House and take the House, we'll pass a law codifying Roe. We have to tell people if Republicans were to do the same thing and to take control of government that they will pass what they have told us they will do, which is a federal abortion. I think there's an argument. The lesson here is not that abortion is a secret weapon. It is that if we want, voters care about it, and we got to make sure they still care about it in 2024 to the same extent they do right now.

I agree. And Buddy, also, I think that there are other issues, ancillary issues that people did not foresee. I mean, there are states in this country that are gynecological deserts where OBGYNs are fleeing the state. I think in either South Dakota or North Dakota, I think it's North Dakota, there are about 66 gynecologists left in the entire state. And they are not spread equally throughout the state. They are located in two of the major cities. And I don't think that when Dobbs was overturned that

people thought, people who were rooting for this, I don't think they understood that doctors were going to be targeted in the way they were, that there would be like bounty laws in Texas to turn people in and become vigilantes. And I think that it's just, it is so far and it's so extreme and that it is affecting healthcare in a way that's so profound. I far and it's so extreme and that it is affecting health care in a way that's so profound. I think that that's important to sort of keep talking about, too, because women who aren't even pregnant can't get health care in a lot of states in this country right now, or it is at least prohibitively difficult for them to do so. Now, of course, the vote on issue one is not the end of the road here in Ohio.

Help people understand what comes next and what's at stake with this vote in November. Okay, so in November, the quote, right to reproductive freedom with protections for healthcare safety, the longest name ever, ballot measure is up. It seeks to protect the reproductive rights of people in Ohio. And with issue one failing, now that only needs a 50% plus one to be enshrined into the Ohio state constitution. Whereas if issue one had gone into law, it would have been 60%, which would have been very bad. And all the polling has shown to date that there is a majority in support of reproductive freedom in the country, but in Ohio as well, which is why these Republicans so cynically tried to rig the game by using issue

one to increase the threshold to 60%. And I think while I think every political prognosticator would believe that the favorites in that November race is the effort to amend the Constitution to enshrine abortion rights, we shouldn't assume it's going to happen. Republicans are going to learn from their loss here. They are going to spend more money. They're going to be more deceptive. They're going to be more dirty tricks. And so we're going to have to do everything we possibly can to help. And so for everyone who wants to help Ohioans win in November and fight back against abortion bans happening all over the country, go to votesaveamerica.com slash bans, where you can

find opportunities to volunteer, organizations to donate to, to help fight for reproductive freedom and abortion rights in Ohio and across the country. All right, Alyssa, that was it for the good news. Let's get to the more challenging parts of our political hellscape. All right. So this week, Donald Trump is waiting for a potential court hearing on whether he will face a protective order in the January 6th case. for a potential court hearing on whether he will face a protective order in the January 6th case. And he seems to be taking this issue with his usual seriousness. Here's the twice impeached, thrice indicted former president at a campaign stop in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Let's take a listen. Because I'm sweating like a dog up here.

Does anybody want me to stop or should we go forward? Crooked Joe now wants the thug prosecutor, this deranged guy, to file a court order taking away my First Amendment rights so that I can't speak. So listen to this. We don't want you to speak about the case. The case, the case is a ridiculous case. It's a First Amendment case. There was never a second of any day that I didn't believe that that election was rigged. It was a rigged election. It was a rigged election and it was a stolen, disgusting election.

And this country should be ashamed. And they go after the people that want to prove that it was rigged and stolen. And then on Wednesday, Trump took to Truth Social to personally and directly attack Judge Chukin, the judge in the January 6th case, by name, accusing her of an array of bullshit, conflicts of interest, and conspiracy theories. Now, Alyssa, I have to ask. Yeah. Is there a strategy here? Is Trump trying to provoke the judge or can he just not help himself? What do you think is going on?

Buddy, come on now. He doesn't even know what he's doing. He, this is a man, and everyone should think about this. I mean, not people who listen to Pod Save America because they already know the answer. But, buddy, this is a man with absolutely zero impulse control that he has proved time and time again. And there are actually people in this country considering giving him the nuclear codes back. I mean, this is like 37% or whatever it is. But I mean, buddy, you and I both know he has no strategy.

He's in a chaos candidate, throw everything against the wall, see what sticks. He's trying to find something that further enrages his base as if they need more rage. But yeah, he has no idea why he's, he will take whatever comes from his chaos and his nonsense. I generally agree with that. And I generally sort of laugh at the people who try to reverse engineer strategy from Trump's insanity. But I think there is a consistent theme in how Trump has approached all of his many investigations and indictments and everything from Jim Comey, Bob Mueller, the impeachments, Adam Schiff, everything, is he just goes after the attacker.

A mistrial? Yeah. Well, I mean, he just – he always wants to be punching someone, right? Yeah. And he wants to raise questions. He wants to try to make it seem like everyone is crooked, everyone's conflicted, it's not just him. And that generally, politically, you know, is enough for him to skate by. It gives the people who want to be with them the ability, the fig leaf to stick

with them, right? Where it's like, yeah, sure, what Trump did is terrible, but like these guys are all out to get him anyway. They don't really care. And this is an Obama judge and Jack Smith goes after Republicans or whatever other bullshit. And for the people who are sort of like in the middle, who are pretty cynical about politics, who don't really pay – engage with the news like in any great detail, in other words, the people who generally decide elections in this country, it's kind of easy to just like throw up their arms and be like, ah, fuck, I don't know, you know, and then can move on to another issue.

So it is – I'm not saying this is a plan, like there's no whiteboard that is in his legal strategy war room that's like attack the judge and attack Jack Smith. I think there's also an element of this where, and it was just why this, what happens with this protective order is so fascinating is, and I remember many, many years ago, Lovett described Trump's behavior during the 2016 campaign as the Raptors testing the fence in Jurassic Park.

And I think that's a little what he's doing here, which is he just he wants to see how far he can go before he gets burned. And he's going to push and push and push. And he does sort of understand that the judge can't really throw him in jail. I mean, technically, she can throw him in jail, but she's not going to. that the judge can't really throw him in jail. I mean, technically she can throw him in jail, but she's not going to. And so what's she really going to do?

And he'll do that until, you know, he'll push and push and push until he gets bit. And we'll have to sort of see how that goes. And he might, you know, it's hard to see. This is not a good legal strategy, but as a political strategy goes, you could do worse, I think. Yeah, no, I agree with that. I mean, there's literally no downside to him doing what he's doing. I was trying to think what could happen short of them

putting him in jail. He could be fined, right? I think they could fine him. He could be fined, and he won't pay. The thing is, any outcome you can see, he's sort of faced before, and he just didn't do it. Well, it's a little like how the classified – there's a way in which this kind of plays out a little bit like the classified documents thing where he thought the rules didn't apply to him. He refused to abide by them, ignored subpoenas. And then next thing you know, the FBI is at his house. And then a few months after that, he's being indicted on 37 felony counts related to violations

of the Espionage Act. And like that could happen here, right? It could happen. He gets fined. He gets fined. He gets fined. There's a world in which he thinks he had, this is like, where he runs into someone who actually, like Jack Smith, essentially,

who will take this seriously enough to do something about it. So we'll see. I mean, it's clear that he's not gonna, up until there's real consequences that matter to him, and maybe those can never come, that he's not going to, up until there's real consequences that matter to him, and maybe those can never come, that he's not going to change his behavior.

Right, exactly. We don't make predictions. Right. But Donald Trump has other legal problems too. Reports are that Fulton County DA Fannie Willis could indict Trump as soon as next week for trying to overturn the election in Georgia. The New York Times reports that Jack Smith is still investigating Trump's super PAC for potential financial crimes related to raising money based on false election claims.

And perhaps most deliciously, we learned from the New York Times that earlier this year, Jack Smith got a subpoena to dig around in Trump's Twitter DMs. What I imagine is a dark and dangerous place. Listen, this is a lot. To date, you could probably argue that none of this stuff has done any real damage to Trump politically. He's still probably gone up in the Republican polls, that New York Times poll from a week or so ago where he's essentially tied with Biden. But do you think there's a point where all of this becomes too much for voters to stomach? I mean, buddy, I wonder. I mean, the thing I will say that the DMs are delicious. I mean, this, though, I think could also be one of the most traumatic things that we have had to experience. Like when I think about listening to

the January 6th hearing and hearing about him throwing steak and ketchup against the wall in the dining room and the ketchup dripping down, I thought that was pretty traumatic to hear. But when we find out, more likely than not, that he's been DMing with bots and when he was supposed to be running the country, I think that it's going to be a lot for everyone to handle. But I'm not sure that the people who support him, right? Like, again, we're all repelled by this. We are exhausted. We can't take it. It's too much. But the people who support him, I'm not sure that any of this is going to matter. I mean, him, I'm not sure that any of this is going to matter. I mean, I think that the people, the 37%,

you know, that, that ardently support him. I'm not sure that any of this is something where they're like, you know what? This is the straw that broke the camel's back. There has been so much else that this just, I mean, it all, again, it always depends on what they find and what could happen. But I'm just not sure. He has set himself up as a martyr. His base supporters believe that. And I don't know that anything is going to change that. It's really, like if you were, it's just really hard to see the dynamics changing with Trump because they haven't changed one iota over an eight-year period. Right.

His approval rating has tracked with a couple of exceptions, one being a huge spike during the early days of COVID, which seems insane now, and then a huge drop right after January 6th, his approval rating has stayed within a three to four point band in the low 40s. He had like high 30s, low 40s. That's where he stays the whole time. He can get indicted. He could get impeached. He could have an insurrection.

He can support Nazis. He can do all of these things and Right. And it sort of stays there. That is that baseline. And that's what our experience tells us. We are scarred from thinking for eight years that this is the thing that's going to bring him down. In the campaign, it was attacking the Gold Star families that spoke at Hillary Clinton's convention. Access Hollywood. Attacking the judge in this racist way,

which was quite prescient, as we now know. And then everything throughout the course of the presidency and it stayed the same. But then you also sort of think like, man, this guy is going to be, and this week is sort of interesting model for what the rest, this guy is going to be, and this week is sort of interesting model for what the rest of this campaign is going to be like, is that the entire conversation is going to be around his upcoming criminal trials. He's going to be in court or his lawyers will be

in court filing motions. There'll be hearings. They're going to be, he's going to be arraigned again probably. And it's just like at at some point, for some number of voters, does that change something, right? Now, it's more likely to change it in a general election where he's the nominee, because the way the calendar works out is if you believe that the primary process will move along on a similar trajectory as 2016, and the polls kind of suggest it might, then he would become the nominee basically the week before the Alvin Bragg trial in New York on Hush Money is scheduled to start. We're going to get a, in the January 6th case, there is, I think we're going to, in the next week or two, Jack Smith is going to propose a trial date. And we'll know then. Just this idea that he is going to be in court for like the seven months of the general election

is something that you would like to think would be somewhat damaging, particularly for people like us who've worked in campaigns and think campaigns matter, that instead of traveling the country and doing rallies all the time, he'll be sitting in court for what is right now nearly 80 felony charges. Here's what I was going to say, though. For him, I think it works. I think it works. If martyrdom is his whole vibe and convincing his base and hopefully some other people,

because he can't win with just his base, that he, think about it. If you're Trump, not to give him any advice, but if you're Trump, first of all, there are only so many places he can still rally and get the crowds that he needs to get to look like he's doing well, right? Do you think that's the case? I kind of do. I think that there are probably a handful of states and a handful of cities. And you and I both know that once you've been to a city and you've done your big rally,

it's diminishing returns every time you come back. And with Trump, if he has to project strength, you know, he goes, he does a rally. I just don't think there are that many states where he can, or cities that he can really rally people. I think for him, he's like coming out of trial and doing a press conference, some crazy fucking wild press conference on the steps of the courthouse. And I think that the big problem that the Republican Party has is that most of the leadership of their party has not come out against him. Like there is no, there is no one he's really running against in the primary. If any of them who have been so brave now and come out and been like,

oh, what he did was bad. Okay. Why would anyone believe you? You only said he was bad when you became his opponent, not when you could have just actually spoken the truth, if that's what you think. And so I feel like, I don't know, I guess I just, I feel bad. I don't think it's bad for him. I think that he can kind of make these trials work for him. I mean, this is sort of maybe a crazy way of thinking about it. And this is very back of the envelope because I haven't given this a ton of thought before this. But probably the thing that is going to decide this election is not Trump's vote share. It's Biden's vote share. Yeah. Because it's hard to imagine people who voted for Trump in 2020 voting for Biden in 2024. Like that's probably a pretty small sliver.

Then you got some people who voted Trump 16, Biden 2020. Do they flip back? Do they flip third party? What is – how much of Biden's 2020 vote does he get back out in 2024? If there's even the slightest drop, then he loses some of these states if Trump holds his numbers. And so it's just, it is a very interesting thing that Trump has all of these problems. And if he, Biden sort of has the harder job to hold his coalition together than Trump does, because Trump's is just a more ideologically, demographically, geographically homogenous

coalition than Biden's, which spans from some former Trump voters, never Trump Republicans, to highly progressive Bernie Sanders supporters under the age of 25. It's a greater challenge. But if Trump were to lose, the person that everyone thought he would lose to in the primary, at least, is Ron DeSantis. LOL. LOL is right. On Tuesday, Ron DeSantis fired his campaign manager. This is his third staff shakeup in a month. His campaign has had strategic resets, pivots. He was going to be more conservative, then more moderate, do more media, less media. I've lost track of all the ways in which they're trying to rebrand this campaign. Alyssa, first, based on the staff shakeups in this month, the summer of resets with Ron DeSantis, have you ever seen anyone pull off a bandaid more slowly?

Buddy, this isn't even pulling off a bandaid. I mean, has he even pulled the bandaid off? That's a great question. Like, I don't feel like the bandaid's been pulled off. This is, he hasn't changed his messaging near as I can tell. Like a shakeup, if you go back in history to shakeups we all remember, they involved actual tumult. You know what I mean?

Firing his campaign manager that no one ever heard of and hadn't run a campaign doesn't, and then replacing them with someone roughly similar is not like a reset or a shakeup he's not changing he hasn't come out and been like like it's pretty interesting actually when you think about it he hasn't come out and been like this is my platform i mean we kind of know what it is but it's just he's like here i. I'm just this very not charismatic man from Florida. He's uncharismatic Florida man. Yes. The way that he has handled this first bit of turbulence in his campaign is just one

of the most incompetent, indecisive things I've ever seen in political history. It is a masterclass in how you not do things. And that, with campaigns, the fish always rots from the head. And this is Ron DeSantis' fault. He does not know what he stands for. He doesn't know why he's running. He doesn't have confidence in himself as a politician or a candidate. There is a way to do campaign shakeups. They happen all the time. A campaign that was supposed to do well hits bottom. The donors freak out. They tell the candidate that if you don't make changes, we're walking away.

And so now all of a sudden they don't have the money to pay the staff or to pay for the huge headquarters they bought when they thought they'd be this frontrunner. And the rule of campaign shakeups is the Michael Corleone rule from the last scene in Godfather. You handle all of the family's business in one day. Whatever staff changes you have to make, you fire them and you announce the new person taking the role on that day. You do a big story where you tell them what the new strategy is going to be. You make a hard pivot. You do not do it like this. It is just, this is why-

Just buy a thousand cuts. It is so poorly done. And it's not just that Ron DeSantis is not a good on the stump politician. He is not a good political manager. And how people run their campaigns is actually a pretty good predictor of what kind of president they're going to be. Joe Biden ran a tight ship. Even when his campaign was not performing great, they stuck together. They got it done. Obama famously ran the no drama Obama campaign that we worked on. Did incredibly well. Donald Trump's campaign, we saw what it looked like. We saw what his White House looked like. And so this would give me great pause if I was one of these MAGA-adjacent billionaires who are funding Ron DeSantis. This guy does not have what it takes to do it, either behind the scenes or on the stump.

No. It's kind of like, what's that saying? If you elect a clown to run the kingdom, the clown doesn't become the king. The kingdom becomes a circus. That is where we are. And I think the problem with DeSantis and his shakeup is that like, I think if you asked him, why is he shaking things up? It's like, because I'm losing. But he doesn't know why he's losing. Like he doesn't understand fundamentally, I think as a baby pundit, that the delta between he and Trump is so large, so vast in the polls that he has to take Trump on. No reset is going to fix the fact that his strategy doesn't work.

And that's, I think, what's interesting. You know, he's like, oh, it's the campaign manager. It's this, it's that. Yeah, maybe they did spend too much money, but that's like not the fundamental problem. He has no charisma. He is a dishrag on the stump. And in order to make up some of the space between he and Trump right now, he has to say what he thinks. If he thinks Trump is fine, why is he running? But all of them, aside from maybe Christie, are parsing their words so much. Why would you support them over Trump? Because they basically say Trump's like kind of OK. He did some things I don't agree with. But none of them are going to break out of the 30 points they're all trailing Trump by

by keep saying what they're saying. bites keep saying what they're saying. Like one of the abiding premises of this podcast is after 2016 is humility and political prognostication, right? And so Tommy, John and John on Tuesday talked a little bit about some of DeSantis' most recent reset and some of his new messaging where he said that Trump lost the election, et cetera. Right. And, you know, and the question was, could he, is there a way he could possibly come back from the dead?

And you worked for John Kerry when he was written off for dead. And there are some parallels here. Kerry was the initial favorite in that race. He was the choice of a lot of donors looking for someone who could, because of his military record, could beat Bush during a war. Kerry fired his campaign manager, a bunch of donors looking for someone who could, because of his military record, could beat Bush during a war. Kerry fired his campaign manager, a bunch of staff. Do you see any parallels from what you guys went through in 2004 that could apply to DeSantis here? And the answer can be no, I want to be clear. No, no, no, no. But I think that some of the things that are just like a

little, first of all, the delta between Kerry and Dean was never as great. The distinctions between Kerry and Dean were, you could make a case for, like there were differences between the two of them. Dean was very progressive. He had the grassroots. But John Kerry was a statesman and he was going to be going up against Bush during the Iraq War. And so I think that was always a little bit on his side, you know, until we got swift boated. But I think that when he, that was a dark day.

I think that when his reset came, it was exactly like you said. It was the Corleone. I mean, like we had many, this is why I think it's interesting. Because everything that DeSantis is doing right now feels like a mini reset. It feels like a change in staff. A change in staff isn't necessarily a reset. When John Kerry brought in Mary Beth Cahill to run the campaign, she was fucking law and order. Like there was, you know, John Kerry had a bad habit of like forum shopping, of asking different staff for different answers until he sort of heard what he wanted to hear.

And I'm not talking trash. I love the man. He has said this himself. He was not great at taking the blame for things when he made mistakes. And I think that Mary Beth Cahill came in and was like, she did more of what Plouffe did on our campaign and was like, this is where we're going to go and this is what we're going to do. And so I think right now what DeSantis is doing is like how we were sort of like limping into Iowa. Like Favreau and I always joke

that the last time we saw each other in December of 2003, before the Iowa caucuses, we were at the Pentagon City Mall buying sheets because he was going to Iowa and I was going to New Hampshire and we were sleeping on the floor and we were of other people's houses so that we could do GOTV. And that by the time we came back, we would be in the unemployment line together. Like things were quite dark. But I think that when, you know, like JK brought in someone who was like, I'm going to make change. And if you listen to me, we may have a chance. And like,

I don't think that DeSantis has done that yet. It doesn't feel like he has decided. And I think that part of that is, is if he brought in someone who is, who had that same kind of point of view, who was going to like rule the campaign with law and order, I think it would mean really taking on Trump in a sincere way. And I'm just not sure that he wants to do that. It is interesting. Like, I guess there is some multiversal world where Donald Trump goes to jail next week, right? Or something like that happens and now he can't, he's convicted of a crime.

Can't run, doesn't run, cut some big plea deal. Some world in which Donald Trump disappears and then Ron DeSantis would probably be maybe the short-term favorite for that just because he's got more name ideas. Or is it like a free-for-all and now everybody's got a chance and they all feel free to beat the shit out of Trump and someone

who actually, I don't know, is like a skilled debater or something rises to the top? And I sort of think there are three modern examples of people's campaigns collapsing and then coming back to win the nomination. There's Kerry in 04. There is John McCain in 08. Same thing as Kerry. Totally. Fire his staff. All new people.

Pick Sarah Palin. Chain strategy before Sarah Palin. I know. Pulls out Iowa, bets on New Hampshire, wins New Hampshire and jumps. And then there's Joe Biden who lost the first three contests, won in South Carolina, and then was the nominee like three weeks later. And I think the Kerry one's probably the best parallel to DeSantis because both McCain and Biden were incredibly well-known. They had 100% name ID.

There was a deep wall of affection among them, for them, among voters in their party. And they each had a constituency that was going to play a huge role in a primary. McCain had real sway with independent moderate voters in New Hampshire, which has an open primary. So he had that waiting for him. And Biden, even when his campaign hit the skids, remained the dominant candidate with black voters. And he knew he had South Carolina waiting. And John Kerry had Ted Kennedy and his dogs. And John Kerry also had electability. Even when he was not doing well, people thought he was the most electable candidate.

People do not think that of Ron DeSantis. I struggle to figure out where his win comes. Or even if he were to win Iowa, what's the next place? Where does he have appeal? Because even you would think Florida would be the thing for him, but that's also Trump's status. So it's very... Don't you think though, if Trump, so say Trump goes to jail, right? Trump goes to jail.

Don't you think that this ends up, this is what I think, I think it ends up as like a brokered convention because I think that you have people, you have Republicans who would do well in certain states, but I feel like it's going to be really hard for them to ever get a consensus because the party's so, so like fractured. Maybe. The thing about the Republican primary, though, is that most of the states award their delegates either winner take all or winner take most. And so winning a state by 1%, it's much easier to get to the threshold on the Republican

side than the Democratic side. But if Trump's in jail, there is a world in which they can try. You remember the thing that Ted Cruz did where he was like, vote your conscience. So who knows? Did I just tell on myself that I watched the episode of Veep with the brokered convention yesterday? I don't think that's telling on yourself. I'm just telling on myself. I don't care.

All right. Switching gears here. Why? That's so fun. I think we're going to do a lot of brokered Republican convention, Donald Trump's in jail fan fiction over the course of the next year on this podcast. So we are two weeks away from the first Republican debate, despite repeated pleas from the RNC and even the brass at Fox News, who is broadcasting debate. Donald Trump is not yet committed to participate, but he may still be debating it. Here he is at the rally in New Hampshire on Tuesday. Okay, you ready? Poll. We take a free poll. Should I do the debate?

Well, maybe we'll do something else. You know, see, some people say yes, but they hate to say it because it doesn't make sense to do it if you're leading by so much. But they like it for entertainment value because they're selfish. They're selfish. All right, Alyssa, do you think Trump really has it in him to see the spotlight to the rest of the field? Do you think there's any downsides to him skipping this debate?

I mean, I don't even know. I mean, I think, look, if you if I were Trump, I would want to do the debate because he is literally surrounded by a bunch of people pretty afraid to attack him. And he's not afraid to attack anything or anybody. him and he's not afraid to attack anything or anybody. So I think that if he gets on stage with the people who've made the cut, I just look like TV is his secret weapon. Like, I don't think that he's, you know, I don't I certainly do not like the man. But if I were to say things that he uses to his advantage, television and debates have been one of them. And so, you know, I think that if I'm Trump, look, he likes to build everything to a crescendo. So I'm like, I'm not going to do it. I'm not going to do it. And then he's, he wants to fold. So he says, you know what? My people want me to do it.

And I have to do what they want me to do. And he gives himself cover and he does the debate. That's what I would do. i think if he skips the debate the the rnc like literally what is the fucking point of a debate without him in it i mean they're like i don't know and if he does not do this debate he's almost certainly not doing the next debate which is at the reagan library and he has a grudge against the reagan library based on something at some point in time what What did they do to him? I think, I don't know. I think they did a series of speeches where they invited all the Republican candidates to speak and they did not invite Trump.

I think that's it. But he has held larger grievances for more petty slights than that. So I don't even really know. Fair. Here's my take. I think Donald Trump would be an absolute moron for doing the debate. Really? Because he is – think about how this plays out.

So everyone of consequence has made the debate stage at this point. Even Mike Pence qualified for the debate last week. Right, right, right. You got Christie, Scott, Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Pence. Doug Burgum has made the debate, believe it or not. Really? I didn't see that one. He spent a lot of money in ads to get there.

He's a billionaire, which is a surprise, but he is. Here's how this plays out. He's up by a ton of points. Right. If he doesn't go, what are all these people going to do? Beat the shit out of Ron DeSantis. Oh, you know what? That's a good point.

I didn't think about that. That's a good point. I didn't think about that. That's a good point. And so he'll just sit back. He'll send some truths that the press will immediately tweet out or X out or whatever words we're using these days. And he'll comment on it. And they'll all look really small. And he'll stay above the field.

And then he doesn't have to engage until September at the earliest, which is when – or the third debate. I don't even – I think the second debate's in September. So the third debate is in October. So he gets, so now he's like three months from the Iowa caucus when this happens. And so. You're right.

I mean, I'm not saying you're right, but I'm saying I see your point. I did not think about them all trying to take down DeSantis, which. I mean, can you just imagine how DeSantis will handle that? It'll be so good. Because instead of going after Trump, Chris Christie's going to go after DeSantis. He's going to try to do DeSantis, which I mean, can you just imagine how DeSantis will handle that? It'll be so good. Because instead of going after Trump, Chris Christie is going to go after DeSantis. He's

going to try to do DeSantis way to DeMarco Rubio. I'm into that. I'm glad not. August 23rd will be good time. Yeah, we'll tune in with it. It's on a Wednesday night. So we'll have hot commentary on the Thursday pod about it. And if you want to watch the debate with us on Wednesday night, we'll be doing a group thread on Discord. Go sign up to become a friend of the pod at crooked.com slash friends. All right. One more debate thing. Last night in an interview with Newsmax's Eric Bolling, Trump said he would not sign the RNC's loyalty pledge, which requires candidates to do two things, support the nominee and commit to not

run as a third party candidate. So far, the only people to sign the pledge are Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley. Why do you think Trump wouldn't sign this pledge? What do you mean? Like, I mean, why would he? Because he won't. Because by signing the pledge, what he's saying to his supporters is that he thinks the other people running would be okay presidents, right? Isn't that what you're saying? That ultimately you have enough faith in the people who you're running against? And he would never, ever cop to that.

It is him and him alone. There is no other king for the GOP. So I totally understand. Even if he did say it, everyone would know it was a lie. But I totally understand why he wouldn't. I mean, there was a similar pledge in 2016 that he said he would sign, but then also said he would just violate it if he decided he wanted to. So there's no enforcement mechanism here. So it's not like they could do anything i i kind of think i'm the rnc and fox want him at the debates so bad i mean they're not going to keep him off stage for not signing it

so it doesn't matter i do think it sort of benefits him more than anyone else because you know it it puts, you have the Chris Christies and the Mike Pence's and people who have somewhat run somewhat explicitly against Trump saying that they would support him, right? Or not run as a third party candidate. I mean, none of this really

matters. It's just, he just knows he has so much leverage here that he's just using it for shits and giggles, right? He just is doing it because he can. And he knows that he's just using it for shits and giggles, right? Yeah, that's exactly right. He just is doing it because he can. And he knows that he's already made RNC chairwoman Ramna Romney McDaniel stop using Romney in her name just out of penance. So why not do this too? Totally true.

Just a raging asshole. That's just what it always comes back to that. All right. We'll be right back with our interview with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. But first, do you love Taylor Swift? Do you love Jon Favreau? Are you Emily Favreau? I can't believe I'm reading this and I can't believe this is in the housekeeping on the

one day Jon decides not to pod. But on the latest episode of Offline, Jon Favreau breaks down how Taylor Swift has navigated the internet age to build one of the most successful musical careers of all time. It is a fascinating conversation. Then Max Fisher returns for the tech roundup to unpack Elon's Twitter rebrand and Ron DeSantis' Cruel Summer. New episodes of Offline drop every Sunday morning or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, in honor of the huge victory for abortion rights in Ohio,

go to the Crooked store and pick up our Bros for Roe merch, which, and I'm gonna read this directly from the copy provided to me by the marketing department. The Bros for Roe merch is the quote, and I'm quoting here, this year's hottest accessory for basic rights supporters of all genders. You heard it. Hottest accessory.

As always, a portion of proceeds from every purchase in the Crooked store go to Vote Safe America's No Off Years Fund to support the work of organizers across the country. Check it out at crooked.com. Joining me now to talk about the one-year anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act and everything else happening on Capitol Hill is the Senate Majority Leader, Senator Chuck Schumer. Welcome back to Pod Save America. Dan, it's great to be back. It's great to talk to you, sir. So it is the one year, we're going to start with some real tough questions here. So it's the one-year anniversary of this historic piece of legislation you passed. Polls show a lot of people don't know much about

the bill or even that it passed. What is your elevator pitch to someone when you see them about what you guys accomplished a year ago and why it matters? Right. I would say I just first sum it up in two words. We're going to lower your costs and we're going to grow the middle class with lots of good paying jobs. So let me elaborate. This bill was the most monumental piece of legislation probably in decades. The whole, you know, the seven bills we passed over the summer, people have said it's the greatest Senate since the Great Society. What did we do? Well, we reduced the amount of carbon. It was the greatest bill on climate change that we have ever done.

We reduced the amount of carbon going into the atmosphere by 40 percent. So people will live longer and cleaner. But at the same time that we did that, we greatly created millions of good new jobs, good paying jobs, because people are going to have to build the panels and install the panels, whether they be wind or solar. People are going to have to lay the transmission lines. People are going to have to build new cars. So not only did, and these are jobs that have a future. When your son or daughter gets a job in one of these places, you say this industry is going for a long time. It's not going to be one of these things for a short amount of time. But climate is one of the greatest dangers we face, climate change. And we did something very real and very strong about it.

I had a North Star. Of course, there were compromises in there on climate. We had a deal with Joe Manchin. But we kept a North Star, 40% reduction of carbon into the atmosphere. We also reduced people's costs in other ways. Prescription drugs. For the first time, we went after big pharma. in other ways. Prescription drugs. For the first time, we went after big pharma.

And insulin for people on Medicare will no longer be more than $35. And after we did that, a lot of the private sector followed. For the first time, Medicare can negotiate with the drug companies to lower costs. Vaccines are free. And starting next year, it hasn't started yet, no one will pay more than $3,000 out of their pockets for prescription drugs. Instead of these huge costs, you have a kid with cancer and the drug costs $1,000 a month and you say, I can't afford it. What do I do? That isn't going to happen anymore.

Third, we did something Republicans would never do. We closed some real tax loopholes. We made the rich pay. Every corporation that makes you all tell the stories of corporations paying no taxes, that's over. An amendment by Elizabeth Warren got in the bill that said a corporation has a profit of over a billion dollars. They're going to pay a minimum of 15 percent and many of them will pay more. We put a one percent tax on the stock buybacks, which so many people dislike. And we put a number, a large number of new agents into the IRS to go after the very

wealthy who hire all these lawyers and everybody else to close loopholes. And at the same time, we did it in a way that was reducing inflation because we put money, that sum of that money, not all of it, but some of it into job reduction. So this bill is going to reduce your costs and create a middle class that is permanent and longstanding. It's a great bill. There's no question on the substance. And the challenge, as you know better than anyone else on the politics is that not enough people know about it, right? There's this Washington Post poll came out just earlier this week that showed that seven in 10 Americans knew either very little or nothing about the Inflation Reduction Act. I know you've always prided yourself on someone who thinks very thoughtfully about how you communicate. How important is it for people to know what's in

this bill? And what's your plan for changing those numbers by the time the votes come in 2024? The answer to the first question is yes, it's very important. They know, and it's things that when they hear about it, they really like it. How are we going to get them to know it? One word above all, persistence. It's going to take a while for this to sink in, but we may not see it out there where you are in California or me in New York, but in the battleground states, every week, more than once a week, our senators are going there and they're opening up a new factory that's going to employ people in good paying union jobs. They're cutting a ribbon at a new road or a new bridge. They're going to a pharmacy and talking about lower drug costs. And it's sinking in. It's going to take

persistence. But we are spending a lot of time on implementation, particularly in the battleground states, but also in other areas as well. I mean, we put in that bill, in the bipartisan infrastructure bill, broadband to rural areas. Everywhere I go in the most rural parts of New York State, and we have the third largest rural population in America, people don't remember that because of New York City, the local officials are amazed that we're getting broadband to people for the first time. So it's going to take a while. We're going to have to persist and persist and persist. But we're spending a huge amount of time on implementation. In fact, Jeff Zients has his as his deputy chief of staff, a woman named Natalie Quillian, whose only job is implementing this.

And it's going to sink in. Here's the analogy. I remember in 2017 and 18, the Republicans passed this big tax break for the wealthy, but it was hard to get through at the beginning. People said, well, the Republicans said, see, they're against tax cuts. They didn't say they were for the wealthy. But we crafted a message, Speaker Pelosi and I, and said, we're going to keep at it for six months. We're going to stick with it. And guess what? It sunk in so that by 2018 elections, they weren't even going to use the tax issue and they had to try to use immigration to try and win, which fortunately failed. So we're going to have to persist. We're going to have to implement, but it will sink in because this is just what people want. And the same polling data says, do you want your cost of prescription drugs lower?

Do you want to do something about climate change? Did you want to do something to rein in the NRA, which we did in the Gun Safety Act? People say, oh, yeah, I really care about that. And not to mention the issue of choice abortion, which is going to be a very important issue as well. to be a very important issue as well. In the 2022 campaigns, many of our candidates, Catherine Cortez, Masto, Art Kelly, so many of the others, used the things we did in the IRA and in the chips and science bill and in the infrastructure bill with great success and picked up a seat in the Senate. I'm just curious tactically, and this may be the former Senate press secretary in me, is that back when I was working in the Senate many, many years ago, you went around, you were

always the person that senators turned to for advice on how you get press, right? You were famous for that. You told many of my bosses to do whole press conferences on Sunday because that's the best way to get into the Monday papers. Obviously, we're in a very different media environment. Is there any sort of, I know you have a lot on your agenda these days, but any sort of like tactical advice like that, that you're giving your battleground senators? I still have my Sunday press conference, and they're very successful. 70% of them produce results. And you know what they're aimed at? And this is what I tell people.

Aim, don't get into the fights in Washington. Talk about things people care about. I'll never forget my daughter when she was in high school, had a concussion and went to the hospital and the nurse came over to her and there was her name, Alison Schumer. And they said, Schumer, you related to the senator. This was a nurse from Queens. And she said, yeah, it's my father. And she said, you tell that man I love him. All the other politicians are talking blather, but he's on TV every Sunday talking about something that matters to me. Talk about things that matter to people. Don't get involved in the Washington fighting, etc. They want to know that you can do something. And the one other thing I'd say is that, you know, the social media is now much more important and has a much greater reach and you ignore it at your peril. You know, when I got to the Congress a while back, there were people who didn't believe in television.

They just believed in newspapers. Anyone who gets to the Congress now and says it's just the regular media, the TV and the newspapers is missing a point. The social is very important. but it works. And again, it's worked in our campaigns very well. We've spent more than half our campaign dollars, DSCC and Super PAC, on the social media side. I'm so glad you brought up the fights in Washington, because now I'm going to ask you about one. It's not even a Sunday, so I guess we can do it. But Senator Tuberville's blockade of military promotions is ongoing. It's causing huge problems. I know you have said it's not your job to get Republican senators in line, and I agree with that.

But the people whose job it is are not doing a very good job of that, and he continues to have this blockade. We also have other senators holding up State Department appointments and Pentagon appointments. And frankly, Senator Tuberville seems pretty immune to sort of traditional forms of political pressure. He seems like he really likes being this hero of the MAGA right. If the Republicans cannot get him in line, do you have tools at your disposal or things you can do to break this blockade? You know, Dan, to be honest, I'm not going to shift the onus to Democrats. This was done by a Republican senator. Let me tell you, if one of my senators did this, he'd be in my office and he'd change his mind because the leader, the Republican leader,

has the power to do it. Now, McConnell and Thune have said this is wrong. Well, let them take some action on it. Now, the pressure on them is mounting. They know it's a terrible issue for them to be taking women who have volunteered for our armed forces and saying they can't get health care because they're in a state that doesn't allow them to get proper health care and then hold up these people who have worked so hard and labored for so long in our military. This is an issue that is their responsibility. The pressure will mount on them. And I believe that they will have to come to the conclusion they cannot let Tuberville persist. By the standards of Washington these days, the Republicans and Democrats have been working

relatively cooperatively around funding the government. Less is happening on the House side. That is a understatement. Yes, yes. Yes, I would say nothing is happening on the House side. Less is too strong a word. Yes. What is your concern level about a possible shutdown when government funding runs out in a little over a month here? Well, you know, we've had a great last six weeks in the Senate as a whole, bipartisan. First, we avoided default. And now that was, I'm so proud of my Democratic caucus. 45 of the 50 took the tough vote, the responsible vote, and said, we are not going to default. The majority of the Republican senators voted to allow us to default, basically. But we held the line, and that was great. But we also passed a defense bill. You know, if you look at the House, they put all kinds of poison pills in this bill about things like,

you know, anti-choice and what you're allowed to teach in the military and all that other stuff. We had none of that, none of that in the Senate. And we passed the defense bill overwhelmingly. But the most amazing thing of all is the one you mentioned. Under the great leadership of Patty Murray and Susan Collins, all 12 appropriations bills were passed out keep the government open if you work in a bipartisan way. And if you're going to insist on doing it in a partisan way, you'll be responsible for shutting down the government. I hope they see that the cooperation between the Senate Democrats and the Senate Republicans as a model and go forward. Now, you know, that means telling the Tea Party folks, the right wing MAGA folks, Freedom Caucus, they call them now, that they're not going to be allowed to shut down the government and they'll have to be a bipartisan bill with Democrats and Republicans in the House like the

Senate. In my history, the party that is demanding things before the government is funded and lets the government, pushes the government into default almost always loses. Yeah, that's exactly right. Pivoting back to the economy for a second, and a shutdown would certainly hurt our economic growth, but the economy is in a much better place right now than anyone expected. Inflation is down. Unemployment remains at a historic low. Fears of a recession that were pretty widely expected by prognosticators have receded. But the polling does not show the American people agree with that. How do you plan to navigate that?

Do we have to convince people that the economy is better? It's always hard to tell people to not believe what they're feeling. What's your sort of economic messaging strategy heading into 2024? Well, the strategy is first, as I've mentioned before, and I won't repeat it, to focus on what we're doing. The two things people want the most our data shows are, get my costs down. They know that wages are going up, but when the costs go up and eat up the wage increase, it doesn't do you much good. And make sure this country has a the middle class has a future in this country, even if you're in the middle class now, you doubt it. But the second

thing that I would say about the economy is, and I've talked to some of the experts on this, including some of the polling experts, it's often a lagging indicator that people look at the economy six months ago, and it's in there still in their heads today. Well, if the economy continues in the good way it has inflation, lower wages, unemployment, particularly minority unemployment down to record low levels. Within a while, I think the people's view of the economy will improve, but it's not just going to happen like that. And we Democrats have to keep talking about it and talking about it. I read your article or column or whatever it was that calling it Bidenomics is a good idea because it forces people to focus on the differences between the two parties.

I tend to agree with that. Any lessons that you take from the victory in Ohio on Tuesday? And how much do you plan to make both the idea that if we were able to expand our majority in the Senate and keep the White House and take back the House, that we could pass a federal law on Roe and that Republicans, if they were to take all, could pass a national abortion ban. It's a very potent issue. And lots of people in the middle who have tended to vote Republican in the past, this is influencing them. And it's interesting. It's not just college educated or

more affluent or suburban people. A lot of poor women feel this very much themselves. So this is a very strong issue for us. McConnell has said they want a national abortion ban. They can't help themselves because the hard, hard right has such power in the Republican Party, even though it's a real distinct minority of the American people, probably 20 or 25 percent, that they're walking themselves into a cul-de-sac. And this is going to be a very important issue. It helped us in other states, but it's also something we believe. You know, women have a right to make their own decisions. And if you're a true libertarian, which these

people profess to be on economic issues where they don't want to pay taxes or see anything else. Well, if you're a true libertarian, you're pro-choice. Let each woman make her own decision. Senator, before I let you go, I have to ask you about UFOs. You have introduced a bill. You seem like you might know some stuff. I'm not going to ask you to reveal classified information. As recent events hold us, I can get you into a little bit of hot water these days. But just if you know anything, wink twice. But what led you to introduce that bill? And if you want to just tell us the truth right now, please do. Yeah, I'll tell you. The truth is I have not

read the report. I have not gotten a briefing. But sunlight's the greatest disinfectant. Lots of people say they're disclosing it because they know something that we don't know. Well, let them disclose it and we'll all know the truth and we'll be better off with the truth. And then I think of my dear friend, Harry Reid, you know, who would sit together and discuss this. And he had a more view of UFOs and outer space intelligence being more likely than I did. But I love talking to him about it. Okay. All right. We'll take that. You are neither confirming nor denying the existence of UFOs. I'm for those sunlight. And let's see what happens.

Okay. We agree with that. And by the way, that's another thing we passed in the defense bill. We passed a lot of good stuff. Don't forget one other thing I forgot. We have this Fendor Fentanyl bill. That's one of the biggest problems we face. And I made sure that it got into the NDAA bill and will allow the White House, the Senate, I mean, the president to put tough sanctions on China and Mexico, which is allowing this evil drug to flow into our shores. So there was a lot we got done. Senator Schumer, thank you so much for joining us. It's always great to talk to you. Thanks. Nice to talk to you, Dan. Thanks for having me on. Alyssa, thanks so much for joining today. It was so much fun to do this with you.

Thank you to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer for joining the podcast. We'll talk to you all next week. Bye. to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer for joining the podcast. We'll talk to you all next week. Bye. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. The executive producer is Michael Martinez.

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