Pod Save America - Rahm Emanuel is Not NOT Running for President

Episode Date: December 21, 2025

Rahm Emanuel, former mayor of Chicago and chief of staff to President Obama, joins Tommy to discuss where he thinks the Democratic Party went wrong in 2024, why he's advocating for a blanket social media ban for children under 16, and to reflect on the foreign policy decisions from the Obama era that have shaped the 21st century. Then, Tommy asks Rahm whether there might be presidential ambitions behind his recent podcast tour.For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail] and include the name of the podcast. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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They're breaking the mold, but they're not new to the game. Blinds.com has been around for 29 years and has covered over 25 million windows, making them the number one online retailer of custom window treatments. Right now, blinds.com is giving our listeners an exclusive $50 off when you spend $500 or more. Just use the code cricket at checkout, limited time offer, rules and restrictions apply. See blinds.com for details. Welcome to Pot Save America. I'm Tommy Vitor. I just wrapped up my conversation with Rahm Emanuel, who is Obama's chief of staff. He was the mayor of Chicago. He was a member of Congress for several years. And he was just the ambassador to Japan for Joe Biden. He seems like he's running for president. I asked him about whether he's running for president. You'll hear his answer. It's a little number. non-committal, but the vibe suggests he is. We had a ranging conversation. We talked about why he thinks the Democratic Party lost in 2024, how we can fix our brand and put forward a

platform that actually wins back the voters we lost to Donald Trump. We also geeked out on some foreign policy. We talked about how Democrats should adjust their policy towards Israel in the wake of the war in Gaza, whether it was right for the Trump administration to bomb Iran. We talked about China. We talked about Rahm's time as ambassador to Japan and then how with the benefit of hindsight, he views some of the more controversial kind of Obama era counterterrorism policies like drones. It was fun to talk to Rom. It was fun to mix it up. We had to agree to disagree at a bunch of different points, but I think you will find it interesting. And he certainly has a vision and view for where the party should go. And he is hitting the road to make that known.

And I think you'll enjoy it. So without further ado, here's Ron. Immanuel. Great to see you. Nice to see you. First question. You haven't aged a bit? I'm trying. Is me interviewing you as weird for you as it is for me?

It's a little out-of-body experience that I have to be nice at this point. Yeah. Yeah. I'm used to staffing, you maybe scurrying away, hiding in the back of the meeting. Let's just say this. To prepare for this, I had to do about two hours of meditation. Good. I hope it was mindful.

All right, so the Atlantic recently ran a big profile of you by a great reporter, Ashley Parker. The headline was Rahm Emanuel dot, dot, dot, dot for president, question mark. That's a question a lot of people are asking. Are you running for president? I haven't decided. I'm out talking to people, hearing what they have to say, giving some of my ideas on, take a couple subjects. As like I recently announced, that I think we should follow Australia and ban social media apps for kids 16 and younger. And I think it's, you know, you're either when it comes to adolescence going to have an adult, raise a child, or you're going to have an algorithm.

And right now the algorithms are winning. And parents feel hopeless, helpless in this case. And that has struck a nerve. I have talked about, which is something I care about, and you know this from when I ran for mayor, the reason is we have two-thirds of our kids or 50% of our kids are not reading and doing math at grade level, lowest in 30 years. You know more about the president's position on windmills than you know what he wants to do to fix that. and you haven't heard from any governor about calling an emergency meeting. I've laid out a case of what K through 8 should be

get back to the fundamentals on reading a math an hour and 15 minutes on the topics to type of support, but fundamentally reform high school. We in Chicago did get a B average, first city, free community college. You earn it with a B average. Second,

bring college classes into high school so kids through dual credit, dual enrollment, advanced placement, international baccalaureate, 50% of the kids in Chicago were graduating with college credit. And then third, you can't earn your high school degree without showing a letter of acceptance on college, community college, a branch of the armed forces, or a vocational ed.

Every child will not just walk, but they'll tell you where they're walking to. And we've got 98% compliance in Chicago. But we have to fundamentally change our education, both reading and math and what high school is about so we can give everybody a shot at the future. And then the most of the most, important is in making the American dream more affordable and accessible. And as I talk

about this, if people react the way I think they're reacting to date and everybody's nice right now, but the rubber hasn't really met the road. Right. Then I'll do it. If I have something to say that in a way to say it that I think strikes a chord that I think not only with the public, but I think addresses what I think of the challenges. And I want to talk about later on, having been away from the United States for three years. I learned a lot about seeing America from a distance that I couldn't see right here in the arena. I'll do it. The 2006 Obama kind of book tour vibe check campaign swing that I think ultimately got him. Some of us were winning the house back. You were very busy. You were very busy. Some of us didn't

have time to read that book. Push around stories about Jack Abramoff and Mark Foley. Deep cuts for the nerds out there. Okay. Speaking of presidential campaigns, the DNC has been working on this autopsy report about what happened in 2024. Apparently, they're going to spike that thing and never release it. Curious what you think about that. But more importantly, why do you think we lost in 2024? First, to the first part, I'm kind of like the middle child,

so I'll give a, there's kind of two camps here. Let me give you a two and a half camp here. I wouldn't release it now because right now you have the Republicans on the run on health care and I wouldn't divert that. We kicked their butts down in Miami. It was a mayor's race. I was there. And the Republicans are flipped out.

I wouldn't change the story. I do think the report has to be public. because I think the only way to get right in 2028 is to understand what went wrong in 2024. Those of us, like you and I, who are addicts about this and want to know the information, and I think it's important, put it out kind of on the slow area, end of the year, those of us who care, we'll read it, digest it. But right now, the Republicans are scurring out of Washington hoping nobody noticed than in a period of the fact that people are worried about health care costs,

theirs are going to jack up 20%. why would you want to change that narrative? So you're saying like punt it a little bit. I wouldn't even punt it. I would like do an on-side kick. No, but I would move it. New Year's Day release. Yeah.

And you and I and others will read it and understand it and we'll grapple with it. But right now, I don't want to take the spotlight off the Republicans. So I'm kind of of, it's not an either-or choice. It's a when choice. That's kind of where I'm at. And my thing is, with the Republicans

running in the darker night out of Washington, nail them and don't change it make sure that by the time they come home and do a couple town halls all they get is health care yeah okay now number two in 24 this is where i'm hoping the meditation kicks in so i come down we'll evaluate whether i really did my zen okay so i i have kind of three things that i think you have to evaluate and i do think contrary to c w that 2024 was winnable even with the 70% countries on the wrong track not a good candidate, not a good campaign

and clearly not a good message you can't pre or post Biden I'm talking about well post okay Kamala Harris gets the nomination Biden Harris is down eight within a week because she is change

she goes plus three and she runs on change and focused on and her best testing ad is about housing and affordability, etc. All the way through, call it the debate. All the high points, convention, debate, she wins. And also kind of getting the baton and making it her own. Somewhere afterwards, they go from the economy and change,

as she is different than Biden and Trump, with a campaign based on democracy. as on the ballot, et cetera, to being Biden's continuity in his message. And she goes from plus three to minus one and a half. Unbelievably, when I find the person that decided it wasn't the economy and change and wanted to go with continuity and Biden, I'm going to kill him. Wasn't it Joe Biden? I mean, he apparently was like calling her saying, no daylight kid.

Yeah, but here's my view. You're your own person. Right. And you pay for all this. You spent $3 billion. He didn't tell you to run on his message. number two that's one two i think in a core message and i think this for the party now you and i worked together obviously with president uh obama i worked uh also with president

clinton okay all three and this is something the party has to learn for 2028 the three most successful electoral democrats had to cross a cultural land to get heard on economics they had to ground themselves in what i call middle class values we short change for President Clinton on Sister Soldier. President Obama talks about parenting and fatherhood and then deals with his own pastor right. President Kennedy goes down to Texas and says I will not be a Catholic president

and take direction from the Pope, but I'll be a president who is Catholic. Okay? One side note, President Clinton, the number one topic, 40% of his advertising, primary in general, was on and welfare as we know it, was not on the economy stupid, was not on the middle class tax cut.

And so that is essential terrain. We, in 2024 as a party, get caught up in what I call, you know, bathroom access and locker room access, not on classroom excellence. We get caught up on pronouns. We get caught up on a host of subjects. But do we get caught up? Because Kamala Harris barely mentioned, like, trans rights in her campaign. Republicans talked about these issues constantly. But they ran $50 million worth of ads attacking her.

And I think some people would argue, actually the problem was Democrats. didn't fight back and defend and explain our position. Well, for a lot of reasons, mainly because we allowed constituents, constituent groups to dictate message. That's not the people that do it. Yes, they made it an issue, but that's a campaign. Okay, your job is to make what you want the issue. You have to not only rebut it, you have to turn it.

And we did things. It was a recent report on immigration in the early days in the transition for Biden. Yeah. And they allowed. Washington constituency groups to drive not only policy but message and then the political consequences that is also true on a whole host of other cultural subjects and I'm not I'm using culture in a capital C yeah but if you look at the history of successful Democrats they cross a cultural terrain they gives them a legitimacy to get hurt on the rest let me take this message

or this point just to further in 06 as you know we kind of modeled first ever using people out of, not using, but recruiting people out of the national security apparatus to run for office. The tactic, or believing that Messenger was message, was their biography opened up a slew of voters that you normally get the mute button on as a Democrat. In the same way on presidential, if you don't look like, one, you're grounded where they are in the family room, and two, that you have the strength to you. take on a member of the family and say you're wrong, Pastor Wright, sister soldier, going on, you can't get heard where you want the campaign to be, which is a dichotomy between who we're

fighting for and who the Republicans are protecting. So I hear you. So that's my analysis of 2024. There's other things to kind of go through, but money wasn't a problem. You shouldn't campaigns. Money was not a problem. You got $3 billion. We had a lot of money. Okay. The message in how you operated as a campaign, in my view, and I can say this from a distance, in July and August, I was arguing with the campaign from a distance about calling for a national ban on cell phones and classrooms. And I must have made closed, so I don't get an illegal trial. I was doing it in after hours. But I was making tons of calls to anybody that would answer. Couldn't get anybody to move. Yeah. I think with that.

I'm not saying that would have won it, but it would have given you that cultural edge I'm talking about. I think that's a really interesting point. It's something that hits people directly. I do think, look, I think on immigration, you're right. There was an abject failure to read pretty glaring warning sides, to watch the coverage on Fox News, to see how every day they were focused on the border and it felt like chaos and a crisis, and the Biden people didn't move. I do think there's been this emphasis in the wake of 2024 on the suggestion that Democrats ran on trans rights

or we're constantly talking about the bathroom or we're constantly talking about, you know, whatever or pronouns. And I just, I don't think that's accurate. And I think it leads to the trans community feeling like they were blamed for a loss that I think was about inflation and economic issues and others. And I think if we, I don't want us to miss the point. And I think that was really the real problem.

It's your show, but I just slightly disagree. You can disagree. No, here's why. There, one, you come out, your, let's dial, put the clock back a little and look at the video again. We spent two years shutting schools down during COVID, much longer than the science actually ground, growled. That radical. And people knew it. Yeah.

And the moment we opened that school door, we blew open the bathroom door. There was debates about bathroom access. There was debate about locker room access. And there was debate about sports. and we were, this is where I disagree, we weren't a party of acceptance, we were a party of advocacy on a set of subjects that weren't core to people.

And not that people, I, as somebody who in 2016, as mayor, dealt with bathroom access, I just didn't make it primary. But there was, to act like there wasn't heat on these topics and that we were more than silent, and we went from trying to create an environment of acceptance to one that was advocating for something. And then there are other cultural issues.

Don't put them in boxes. How we were permissive on this topic. We were permissive on immigration. We were permissive on a host of other cultural issues that boxed us in a place that took a whole group of voters that we could have won. And they said, look, you look like you sound like you're from Mars. Yeah, look, we might have to agree to disagree. Look, you're right.

I think we should. There was heat on this issue, right? Look, I think the right policy approach is basically libertarian, which is like let people make their own medical decisions, let families, parents and kids make their own medical decisions, get RFK and Dr. Oz the fuck out of, you know, my conversation with my doctor when it comes to sports. Of course, there's questions of sports fairness, but like, it's not a one-size-fits-all approach. Let's let local communities figure that out. Then there's just this question of like empathy, right? And communities feeling heard. And imagine you're, look, think back to

high school. Like I was a nerdy kid. Sometimes you feel left out. You feel different than others. Imagine you're like a trans kid and you turn on the TV. And Donald Trump is mocking trans athletes, like every day at rallies. And in high school was taking ballet in the 70s. And trust me, I was the only male in that class. Yeah. Okay. I'm very, I'm about an accepting culture without becoming an advocacy culture.

We are going to disagree to disagree because I think you are underestimating how much that became a brand and a profile, knowing full well that the other side was going to use it. Pod Save America is brought you by Cook Unity. Festive Holiday favorites are available for limited time and only in select Cook Unity markets, like old-fashioned glazed holiday ham, ultimate holiday turkey dinner, maple whipped sweet potatoes, and their candied yam cake. Sounds pretty good. Yeah, I need some of that. Love Cook Unity.

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I think we'd both agree on that. Sketch out for me like the Rama manual vision for the Democratic Party. How do we fix this challenge we have? Because we're not doing a lot of that right now. No, well, one is the nominee will, I'm not, let me back up. The nominee will go a long way that you can't go without a nominee. and a primary fight before that there's a couple rules about the different people conflate 2026 and 2028 2026 is a referendum election on them they own the

house the white house and the and the Congress when you have that like in 2010 2018 1994 or 2006 that is a referendum election you have a high turnout about the party out of power we have seen in every election across the country in the last year, exactly that. Independence are going to break two to one for the party out of power. We have seen in it every election in every part of the country since November of 2024. And there will be a low turnout among Republicans, which we have seen in every election for the last year. That is what this election is about. And like we did in 06, somewhere in the spring, you announced a, like we did a 6 in 06, you should announce

a 6 in 2026, some modicum of a minimum wage. that we're going to work on, health care cost control, things that actually reflect the message of affordability and accessibility and income growth. I actually think one of the argument, one topic of I could do a shoutout, your groceries are up, housing costs are up, utility rates are up, health care costs are up, you know what's not up, people's paycheck. Yeah. And we need to, if one person in this state is getting a trillion dollar pay package, how about

giving people a minimum wage increase across the country? They haven't had an increase in wages. And with all this technology coming and productivity comes. coming, well, the contract calls for an increase in wages. So if other things are right, so that's a, 2026 referendum. 2028 is a choice election. Now, one of my things that I think is a problem for the party is we've allowed Donald Trump to blind us.

And what I mean by that is everything we're doing is about, and there's a lot to fight Donald Trump on, he's doing a lot that's damaging. to the core of America. But we have to be able to also prove that we can fight for America as much as we are fighting with every viber and every vigor of our body in fighting Trump. And that centers around, in my core view, both on a message standpoint and what the brand of the party is, that the American dream, and you and I were talking about our kids earlier before, it's not affordable and it's not accessible to the broad base of America.

America. It's inaccessible. And for those of us that over our course of our careers have made it, our kids, one way or another, are going to be okay. But it can't be the American dream when only 10% of the kids of America get access to it. The rules, when people say, I feel like I can't win, there's a reason. Because you can't win. It is skewed towards Tommy and Rahm and our families. For our heads out, we win, tails you lose. And our message and the truth of the matter.

there is, and I think you and I read a lot of history, et cetera, the moment the American dream becomes unaffordable is when our democracy becomes unstable. If you think the system is rigged for your failure, you're going to get pretty angry. Agreed. And the party is about fighting for that home, and the contract is not really hard. Good job. Own a home. Safe for your retirement, safe for your kids' education, and be able to afford health care. That is not really a lot to ask for out of a country. And we don't have that. Now, we have to be honest. We didn't get here overnight. It was not a Republican fault. It's happened over the last 30 years. Each thing incrementally over a period of time, the ladder got pulled up, the door got shut, and double

latches were put on. And you can see there's never been a greater concentration of wealth in this country in a period of time, both on home and on the stock market. I mean, the two things they generate well. Like now. And the idea. that the next generation just literally gets handed their entire life's income plus just handed to them. And the tax code encourages you to do it. It's crazy. Yeah, it's crazy. Um, and so to me, that's the core and it would open up to a group of voters over a period of time. And it's not a one election thing. Every day you're doing sweat activity pushing this. And I think knowing that as, you know, the joke is paranoid people have enemies, that system is,

not only skewed, you are rather striving to get into a status, you're struggling to maintain it. And you are getting the shaft. Look, when I left college, I earned less than $20,000, and I was able to get an apartment. Today, my son worked in the Navy, leaves college. He gets, without going much north of what I got, but he gets a housing stifle. And without that housing time, and his life would be more, no, more difficult. A lot of people are making three times what their parents made

and they're stuck in the basement. This is a lived, they're not paranoid. This is, and they're, and the next thing is, if mom and dad want to sell the house, the kids coming with the house because they can't get out of there. They can't afford an apartment where I was making a third less than what my own kids, but other kids are making,

and I could afford to live on my own, where today kids cannot, they have to have three or four roommates or they have to live in their parents' basement. This is insane. So that's what I think is the, I think that is how you get right with the American people. You make it core to who you are, what you are, what you're going to fight about. I think there are other things that if we're strong at home, and I say this, going back to what I said about Japan, I learned a lot about Japan, learned a lot about the end of Pacific, being away from America, 8,000 miles and 12 hours, I got a chance to learn a lot about America, probably more about America than any other thing. And we have nothing China is doing

scares me. It's what we are not doing at home. China doesn't decide whether 50% of our kids can't do reading and math at grade level. China doesn't decide whether we declare war on our research universities while they're racing ahead. China doesn't decide whether we don't do all the above on energy, but only pick oil and gas, and we're going to bet everything on it. We have made, there are challenges, other things we have to, but the things we are not doing at home to take care of the home front is making us weaker both at home and abroad.

That was, and it's really becoming at a higher and higher price to us. Look, I think that is the right message. I think people feel like the system is, rigged because it is rigged. You're hearing it. You're seeing it in polling. You're seeing it focus groups. Like, you know, swing left is knocking on doors. The number one thing they're hearing is not necessarily affordability. It's like the system is broken. It doesn't, you know, burn it all down. And so that leads to be the question. Like, look, I think on paper, you are, it's hard to argue anyone else is better prepared to be president. You've been served in Congress. You were a

mayor. You were an ambassador. You were the White House chief of staff. Like, literally no other job that a White House chief of staff could prepare you to the job of president, right? But I think politically that you're going to encounter voters who are like fuck Washington burn that place down burn what they've done down over the last you know 30 years and they might blame you for NAFTA the finance things we are response to the financial crisis in the Obama years you know things Congress did like how do you how do you respond to that how do you deal with that a couple things one is uh you're not wrong about there's a let me say that there's an access one way of saying new, which is a bigger kind of call about change, is generational. Young versus

old. The other one is strength versus weak, which is a part of the party grant. And having somebody with strength would be different for the party. As you all know, when it came to taking on the financial industry, who got the call and who got the ball? When it came to take on the insurance companies for kids health care, who got the call, who got the ball? Who was the first municipality to sue the pharmaceutical industry over opiates? Who has had the toughest regulations as it related to tobacco and kids? Who took on the national gun lobby? So strength would be a whole new quality to the Democratic Party. And second is, as it relates to the financial industry, I would just say some of us were advocating for Old Testament justice. I don't want to

relitigate this. I recall. Okay. Some of us said, I wish you had won that fight. Okay. Well, actually, this actually is a good lesson. And I just did this yesterday with a bunch of high school kids in Vegas. Old Testament justice? Well, no, in the sense of, you know, the president in the Oval Office there are two choices, bad and worse. There's never good and bad. The people that were advocating health care first were not wrong that every day that you didn't do it is a day you probably can't get it done. Those of us who are arguing for taking on the financial industry and making the banks and insurance companies your enemy, we're actually, we're right both on the economics, but more importantly, right also on the politics, which is you needed an enemy

of an interest group the American people were angry at. In the end of the day, he got 300 plus like October volts. He makes the big decision. He picked health care. We did get health care, but there was a political cost called the Tea Party. And none of these are 100% right and zero wrong. I do believe that we should have taken on the fine. After both TARP, the bailout for the banks and insurance companies,

and then after the Recovery Act of $1.6 trillion collectively, And that's when 1.6 trillion was real money. The political, the culture of the country needed a Old Testament justice. And you can't do, you couldn't do both. And the president said of the three kids cap and trade health care and financial reform, his favorite child was health care. That was his joke that Saturday. And he wasn't wrong. We got it done, but don't think that it doesn't come with a consequence, both in a sense of.

trade-off, yeah. Because to pass health care, the insurance companies had to sit on the same table. That was the lesson from Hillary Care. Fighting banks would have been a better fight. That said, health care has become the kind of the beaches of Okinawa for the Republican Party. Yeah, that's right. I want to ask you one kind of L.A. question before we get to. L.A. question?

Yeah, you're in L.A. at the moment. I think you've got a relative. It works in the movie business. I think it's like a PA or something. I try to forget that he's my brother. So what do you make of this battle? between Paramount and Netflix to buy Warner Brothers, and in particular, like, President Trump's efforts

to inject himself into the process and pick the winner. Like, I'm imagining 2010 Barack Obama calling up Warner Brothers and saying, like, you must greenlight the town too. Let me, wait, before we get to this, time, how many times a day do you say to yourself, if we had done something? Every day. Okay?

Like, that's 10 times before 9 a.m. Yeah, yeah. I can't believe I spent $300,000 creating a blind trust as chief executive. I mean, he's chief of staff. I can't believe I did that. And I look at this. And also another couple hundred of our ambassador.

I look at people coming out of prison are already nominated a bet. I'm like, what, am I the schmuck in the room? We all were schmucks. One funny story. I give you the head of the ethics at the State Department, you know, four months out, you have to do an exit ethics report. I said, I will do this, but you must be the Maytag. I mean, is nobody filling up?

I look at all these people, never filled out a financial form. You're chasing me four months afterwards? It's crazy. Yeah. Okay, now I think that's for the third bit. So, one, this, let me go where I think the problem is. This is the Robert Supreme Court. I blame them.

Because with their decisions about FTC, the security exchange, and their view of the unitary power of the presidency, means that the president is the ultimate judge. And he will insert himself. and it won't be the rule of law and it won't be a non-political independent body I mean nobody believes this

Justin Power in antitrust division no okay so they Noah Feldman in Bloomberg had a fabulous piece yesterday that all the other justices at the court of appeal circuit court court of appeals have done a fabulous job

and the Supreme Court the leaders have abandoned the rank and file judges on the field this is their fault. I'm not a fan of Trump, so I don't want this to be meant. He has a permission slip to insert himself. And all the guardrails about concentrating power in either one person or one of the three branches of government have been eradicated. Forget the Congress because the Republicans have put their entire manhood into a lockbox. This is Robert's fault and nobody should kid themselves. The Supreme Court has made a horrendous decision about the

of power and a country that's based on the rule of law and you've got a decision here and the president's inserting himself not only against CNN and not only on what he's rewarding friends that have rewarded him and he's going to weigh in yeah this is not a pop quiz you forget that you and I I mean whatever I feel about Donald Trump you have given a the president whoever he or she may be a permission slip to have an opinion that's more powerful than the law this is for originalists or a court system that thinks of themselves as richest, this is not anywhere close to the original founding framers of the Constitution about how power exercises itself in a political system. I agree. So everybody's, I mean, look, I've read about Netflix versus Paramount and the concentration. And I don't know. But what I do know is that the Supreme Court has allowed the opinion of a president to outweigh the law in a dramatic way not just and I'm putting aside Donald Trump there will be

another decision of a concentration of power economic and the Supreme Court has given a green light whoever is in the presidency to make that decision not the laws and the interests of the country and we do have two problems I think of myself as a free market capitalists. And on one side, you have Marxism. On the other side, you have monopolists. And right now, the monopolists are winning because that's Donald Trump's economic philosophy. And he gets to decide, because he's also going to, like he's doing today, and I've talked about this a year ago on Ezra Kleinzell, corruption is going to be the issue. And I actually think the reason MAGA voters feel the way they do is because they've betrayed. Rather than worried

about their paycheck and their checkbook, he's worried about his paycheck and his checkbook. And they know it yeah i think right look i think point well taken on the courts i also do uh blame amazon a little bit for paying 40 million dollars for some boring ass milania documentary which is self-evidently a bribe yeah but uh you know in broad daylight we'll call it what it is i guess no i mean look this this is this is and i'm going to do a shout out to the american people the roberts court is corrupt corporate america is spineless republicans in congress and the both branches are useless. So we're down to the judgment of the American people

and thank God for them. I know a lot of people in our party. Oh, the American people go, why do they vote for this guy? They're going to issue a judgment in 2026. And I'm very confident unless something dramatic happens, it is going to be a verdict of guilty on the president of the Republican Party. And thank God for them because they are the thin blue line

that's going to put a stop to Donald Trump and pause it, where Roberts, the Republicans, corporate leaders, Titans of media are useless. And I'm trying to make sure that this gets through the FCC what I'm saying, because they are useless. And I could say some other things I used to say when I was chief of staff and you walked in. I cannot stand what they have done. Yeah, I agree.

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You're an expert. You're an expert. I actually made one day, but get a double-breasted suit. There we go. Work a foggy bottom. In the wake of the war in Gaza in October 7th, a lot of Democrats have been saying

we need to rethink U.S. policy towards Israel. Our friend and former colleague Ben Rhodes wrote this piece in New York Times a couple weeks back. He recommended, among other things, that the U.S. cut off military support to Israel, support U.S. recognition of a Palestinian state and refuse to take A-PAC money.

I'm curious what you think of those. recommendations, and then like what changes you would propose, if any. So, Tommy, you know this. In 2009, there's only one person the Prime Minister of Israel calls a self-hating joke publicly. You in Axelrod, right? Yeah, Axelrod, is pissed that he never gets to the recognition. I said, you're not that good at you, David. You're also not named around Israel in that.

Publicly. And he's also in his book, the only person he attacks in the book is me, his own book. What do you ask you for? Like just that I was anti-Israel, you know, the same stuff. Got it. And if you remember, and I think you do, that battle, also in the Oval Office, literally the president had to tell the prime minister, I'm the president, lay off a ram and so on and so forth.

I have a photo of it, actually, because we went toe to toe over the housing expansions and settlements expansion in West Bank. Yeah. So here's, let me, before it's just about Israel, let's talk about the Middle East. And I'll talk about Israel in that context. I think it's the context that matters. Israel has never been more strategically secure

since Ben-Gurion was dancing the horror in 1948 and Tel Aviv, but more politically vulnerable. I had never in my life that I thought that a prime minister of the state of Israel would lead Jews back into the ghetto. And that's what's happening in Israel. That's what's happening in the world, and that's what's happening around the world.

Jews can't go to Europe and participate in the Eurovision, while the UAE is hosting the world financially in the F1 he has literally in the way he has executed pieces of the last not just the last two years but over his time isolated Jews in Israel the fact of the matter is this is the best strategic terrain Israel has had since the founding

you have peace in Jordan with Israel you have peace with Egypt Syria and Lebanon basically call it non-belligerance

you can use whatever label but it is in more secure place than ever before Iran is on their back foot I do want to spend time on this because I think one of the most unreported stories right now is the collapse of Iran

not just strategically imploding in society you don't really have in the near geography a strategic threat. Second, when we were starting in politics, the Gulf was all about just oil.

Today they want to be part of the world economy, which is what Israel's ace is. The UAE, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, want to use their petrodalus to be part of the global economy and their citizens to be part of the Kuwait. That is an invitation for Israel.

And they're pissing it away with this prime minister. Rabin understood, that, and he was a statesman, and I say because we're on the 30-year Eve of his assassination, to seize a moment. Look, these are not easy decisions. You have to make compromises and then kind of leap into the strategic, not only unknown, but try to shape the events to your faith. You have the Gulf countries ready to accept Israel as part of the region, which has been the dream, the nation among nations, since its founding. and B, you have strategic stability and you are perceived as a strategic superpower in the region.

That is an economic superpower. That is an incredible, that is as good at chessboard as Israel has ever had in 77 years. And there is nothing that this prime minister has done, whether it's with Lebanon, Syria, or the situations they have done that opened up the Gulf to seize that moment that the IDF created. Now, I would do things that are very clear, as it relates to Israel is, Israel. You've crossed the line on the settlements. Unacceptable. I said this when I was ambassador to Japan to members of the Biden administration. Any settler who's involved in any violence on the West Bank is on a no-fly zone. But I'm on no-fly zone. Nothing would make them more

upset that they can't come, go to Brooklyn, go to any part of America or go to Europe, just no-fly zone. Biden sort of started some of that process, but Trump walked it back, right? You want to go further. Okay. Without calling it out, there are people that know that I want to go much further. Got it. Two, you know, and you and I worked on this, President Obama signed the largest security defense package in Israel's history. I would continue that, but there are going to be restraints and boundaries on that.

And third, you're either going to make the most of this strategic opportunity, but you will not hold Americans foreign policy. You will not hold our strategic interests. I think all the others in Trump administration that basically want to just be a hemispheric, you do not want to give up our position in the Middle East. I think that's a foolish idea and strategically flawed. And I would say this is where we're going and you can either be a part of it or you can be on your own.

So if you want, Mr. Prime Minister, you want a Sparta Nation, let me not stop you. But you're going to realize that's a losing bet. Well, but isn't, I mean, like a lot of people sort of default to the two-state solution, right. But Netanyahu says he opposes a Palestinian state. The Knesset just voted to annex the West Bank. We've been dealing with this right-wing government in Israel for 15 years. It's only getting worse. It's like, you know, Ben-Gavir and Basil Smotrich are now like extremists who are members. Meanwhile, the Palestinian authority has no credibility. It's been undercut. Yeah, they don't, they don't get a pass because they missed three from Camp David with Echabarak and

Yasser Arafat to what Omar had offered him six years later. It's all the same. But they have missed many opportunities. And Israel has since those times and other events from bombs in Disney North Square to October 7th have to legitimize their position of non-dialogue. But it's not a choice. Right. And so like I guess what I'm getting at is it feels like, look, a lot of Democrats in the U.S. just say, oh, we need a two-state solution. We need to negotiate that. It feels like that's just a way to punt and will perpetuate the status quo. At some point, don't we need to use our leverage where we can to try to push or pressure Netanyahu to make better decisions? Well, here's the one thing and since Netanyahu's decided to play in American politics, I have no problem discussing

what the first step on that journey. And I give Naftali Ben David, the former prime minister that was kind of the one prime minister interrupting BB's 17-year run is legitimizing the Arab Israelis to be part of the coalition government. They were, they had 10 seats. That would reduce the stigma but also legitimize the Arab participates. I mean, one-third of the population, not in one-third, 20% of the population is Arab-Israelis. That's first step. Second, there are boundaries. I would, And this was also part of the housing fight that Mitchell and I were not on the same page that he thought I was too strident about this.

At that time, I haven't seen the law since. You used to be able in America to get a tax right off if you contribute to building settlements in Israel. Eliminate it. I don't know if it has been eliminated, but back then it wasn't. That was my position. Two, you cross the line, totally unacceptable.

Three, you're part of any violence. You're on a no-fly zone. You have to impose political, not just economic, but there are some economic costs to violating the two-state solution because, look, there will never be a river to the sea and there will never be a greater Israel, which is the inverse of the river of the sea. There's the same thing. Both parties have to give up their extremist position and learn how to live together. There is a legitimate concern by Israel in the sense of a Palestinian authority that can be a legitimate partner

with the interest of finding how to work with the state of Israel. You and I sit here in Beverly Hills as we're taping this. Hollywood, sure. Okay, Hollywood. The trauma on Israel post-October 7th. Horrified. Unimaginable. It took us a decade on September 11? Yes. And you can't, if you're navigating a democracy, you can't basically ignore that trauma. I agree. And it's real. It's viscerally real. I agree. Finding up, uh, and it's, and there's a sad twist of irony because the kibbutzim on the border of Gaza, when you look at the vote totals were the most progressive in Israel politics. And they destroyed, not just Hamas, but the attacks in Dzing off going back 20 years ago, destroyed any center of gravity in Israel for finding a partner for peace. That's just a fact for

their psyche and their dynamics of their politics. The history of America with Israel is we do, America does things to create a space for a prime minister to take the risky political steps. Coddling prime minister saying yes to his actions is not in Israel's self-interest. That has not worked and this course will not work. You will not repress the Palestinian aspirization for a state. On the other hand, the Palestinians have to accept a two-state solution, not a river-to-the-sea solution. But would you want to condition military aids that's not used in the West Bank, for example? Like, you know, you've seen the videos. I've seen the Smotris handing out American machine guns to extremists in the West Bank. Like, shouldn't there be some

strings attached to that money? A small Y, yes. As it relates to the West Bank, etc., I get what you're saying, as it relates to the security of Israel and in the relationship, because the biggest conflict right now on Israel is Gaza. It's not kind of Iran, although Iran's a very serious threat, but I'm saying in the sense of hot or Lebanon. So there's got to, without going this policy, there has to be a cost benefit to making sure that Israel realizes there's a decisions they make to continually repress a Palestinian aspiration, and we're paying for it, America's paying for it. And I think Israel's paying for it by through their isolation, both political, strategic,

and economically. I mean, look, Israeli Symphony can't go perform somewhere in Europe, and a singer can't perform somewhere in Europe. People, academics, can't participate in conferences on biomedicine and some of the great biomedicists and life sciences are being. being done in Israel or in AI technology. That isolation is gonna come with the consequences. And forget that I said it.

I'd like to remind the prime minister, Israel's now facing it for the first time a net emigration. Your best young minds in the series of science and technology are leaving and they're going to Berlin, which has its own twist of irony. I said, yeah, you wanna keep doing this, go ahead. Because we're not gonna bankroll this

because you're bankrupting your own country. And you have to be nothing helps as somebody who took on BB in 2009 with a lot of other people were lip-syncing the talking points out of APEC nothing helps Israel by saying yes to them automatically there's a cost to this and we can't keep covering up that cost so whether your manifestation of is it restrictions on weapons I'm finding a series of other things that I think would hit a nerve politically and culturally in Israel that this is not the cost we should be paying this is not the rubicon I'm not disagree with you.

No, no. The question is which of these restrictions costs would hit the nerve to get them to wake up because right now they're living in an illusion that there is no choice they have to make. The choice you're making, which you think is no choice, comes to a huge consequence, and I'm not covering that bill for you when I say I, meaning the Americans anymore. Agreed with that. Last little thing on this. Meaning because we're doing things, if you want to isolate Israel and you, Mr. Prime Minister,

give this stupid speech about Sparta, that's you. we're not going to isolate ourselves. And what you're doing, we're not going to keep covering it because we're not going to get isolated with you. That's not how we're doing this score. Yeah. Last little thing on this. So speak of Ben Rhodes.

President Clinton, who is the superpower here? The fucking superpower here, Nanyano. We're going to take a quick break. But before we do, please listen for 30 more seconds. That's your gift to me this holiday season. If you like Kyrkid Media, if you want to support the work we're doing, please consider becoming a subscriber. Go to kirka.com slash friends.

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Go to planparenhood.org slash defend and give today. That's planparenhood.org slash defend. Ben Rhodes wrote in his book that you once jokingly referred to him as Hamas. People on the left have taken this anecdote and interpreted as showing. that you didn't care about Palestinian rights. People on the right seem to think, they like to throw it in Ben's face and suggest you think he was a literal terrorist sympathizer.

Do you want to clarify whether in that moment you thought Ben was living in a tunnel somewhere? I still think academia is a tunnel. No, as I, well, first of all, you are talking about John Kerry, as chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, calls the president's on the road. He says, Hamas wants to hand me a letter.

I said, we'll take it. Fact. Yeah. I said, bring it. bring it back so we can see it as it don't cut off and the communication and when the soon as the president was back was a domestic trip i said i approve this and he says good so that's my background i i i don't remember that anecdote but sounds kind of accurate so it's hard for everybody to argue about it sounds like a harmless joke no well yeah it was probably harmless

but obviously it cut a nerve with with ben because you remember is it but look we had disagreements which is what you're supposed to have on policy and how best to the goal of what we were both trying to achieve and I don't mean just isolating this to Ben and I it's ironic Ben would say what he said about me and then Bibi would say what I said I think I'm perfectly physician you mentioned around a couple times do you think President Trump was right to bomb Iran's nuclear sites the decision yes but let me walk back where I think we are one is we made this threat by all means both Democrat-Republican presidents have said all options are on the table right here was an

option and you had a chance for once in a little because if you didn't do it you definitely would have been shorter than where we are from a strategic setback i actually think one of the things but uh tommy that's underappreciated right now and you have a lot of news around ukraine you have what china is doing vis-a-vis japan and or taiwan right now i think this split between society and the government in Iran is an underappreciated, underreported story. I don't think three years from now, Iran's gonna be what you and I are sitting here today.

You have, there's a massive drought where they're talking about moving the capital out of Tehran. Huge drought. I don't know if anybody knows this, but that's not a minor story. Yeah. Two, there are bars popping up all over the place and the government can't and won't and will not,

shut them down. Women now are fully dressing and doing whatever they want, as it relates, the hajeeb law that we talk about, but from cosmetics, et cetera. Fourth, music concerts that were restricted about are happening all over the place. Fifth, there was recently a marathon run

in which women were not, were dressing like as if they were any Western city. There is a gulf of legitimacy between the society and the government that is wider than we've ever experienced. Now, a lot of people said, the revolution or the collapse of the, the government is right around the corner

so that I could also be the 20th wrong predictor. But in the last dozen years, you've had three separate manifestations of domestic civil unrest. Something is bubbling. You've also had the economic pressure by the West led by the United States. And you have, given that the government,

and most importantly, the security apparatus failed in its ability to protect the country. I think the religious, and you have, lastly, I should just say, a head of state who's 80-plus years old, too old, and there's a transition of power. All those data points, always historically, but at this point to something dramatically about to happen. So the breaking.

Yeah, and I don't know. it doesn't mean that it goes reformists. And I should probably add, the president of Iran just said, I can't fix this. Yeah, that was a weird quote. That was, yeah. You and I would have grabbed the president of Obama

by the collar, pulled him back into the other. Oh, we're not saying that. That's the, no, I don't know what happened with the truth medication, but we're changing the dosage here. No, I think so what something is, something's not good in Denmark,

to quote William Shakespeare. So something is, a miss there and it's not on anybody's radar screen as like the last proposal between the Russians and Ukrainians for good reason, but something long, short and medium term is happening there of massive significance where the relationship between society and government is under a fundamental change. Does it lead to a revolution? I don't know. But when you have that transition of power, there's going to be a break. That's my prediction. So I'm just on the Iranian front. I mean, do you think that's a wrong analysis? No, I think it's an interesting analysis. I'm watching as closely as you are. I just think on the nuclear front, I mean, you know, the tail of the tape is, you're right. Every Democrat, Obama included, Republicans said, all options are on the table. Then Obama cuts the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear deal. The U.S. pulls out of it unilaterally, even though the Iranians are complying. His own staff, his national security team is like, don't do this. This is making us safer. Then you gets into these talks with the Iranians, you know, sort of this is.

iteration this last year. He says he wants to cut a deal, but now the Trump administration is like bragging to the press about how they were actually lying and they were just saying they wanted more talks to, you know, give the Israelis covers to go bomb the shit out of them and that we bombs. And I just worry about American credibility because who's going to cut a deal with this? Well, here's the thing, though. So let's take the credibility and threat it. I happen to think when President Obama said to the Syria that you're going to cross a red line and we didn't execute on that. it hurt America's credibility. You have a situation when Israel's bombing

what they're doing, et cetera. We always have said all options on the table. Had we not chosen to do that, I think American credibility would have taken a hit. I'm not wrong about, look, I supported the agreement with Iran. It's a 51-49, but I leaned down the 51.

It was not a 80-20, it wasn't a 60-40. That's just my view. It was a close call. It was a bet. that if you stymied the nuclear peace, that this thing that I'm talking about that's happening now, because of the demographics of Iran, the youth who wanted to be part of the world would desire.

That was the basic bet. Now, what it didn't do was deal with the Shiite crescent from Hezbollah to Syria, et cetera. And what it didn't do was deal with the technology and missile delivery, which are false to that agreement. There were blemishes on that agreement. They were part of it, right?

Look, every agree... Yeah, as I, you know, I don't know if you know this, but the Obamacare didn't do everything on health care. You just basically, you make a decision that this loaf of, this slice of the loaf of the bread is good, if not good enough, okay? And that, those were two things that were big problems.

You had to make a decision, were they problems enough not to do it? And that's why I say the president was right to do it, but I'm conscious of it, so a 51-49 call. That was his option on the table, but he always said to get there, the military kinetic option had to be there. There was a chance,

given that what Iran was doing in the final three months prior to that, of not participating in the international community and not really opening up the full kimona, you could set back their nuclear timeline. And so, again, that too, the bombing was a 51-49 decision. If you asked me, I think it was the right decision.

I'm worried we're going to be doing it again pretty soon, but, you know, we'll see. I do, that's actually, The two things I'd keep of flashing light as Gaza stalls and Israel gets filled with their hubris, specifically the prime minister, and not have the courage to make the most of this strategic window he has at the IDF gave him. I worry about his decision what he's going to do with Hezbollah up in Lebanon and what he's going to do that he thinks he has an opportunity to continue to keep Iran on their back heel. And I do worry about that. That's why I think America's power is not to say us closely aligned, but here is our position. And any time you're going to endanger our strategic position, that's when we have a gulf between us.

It's not our job to stay close to you. It's your job to stay close to us. Yeah, yeah. I'm going super long, so you tell me when you got to go. I got to catch a flight. What time is it? 10.56. Okay, you get, like, we're going to do five, no more than 10 minutes, but fine.

Okay, fast around. Let's go. World, globe. So you were Biden's ambassador to Japan. Rumor has it. They're still an ally. You're still an ally. You had doubts, Tommy.

You did not think that it could go three years, little three months as an ally. There's a lot of turnover over there. They have a new prime minister, Sanai Takachiichi. She's the first woman to service prime minister. Interesting person, ultra-conservative, kind of wonky nationalists, like Shinsu Abe protege. But she made waves right out of the gate by saying that the Chinese invade Taiwan, that is like a so-called existential threat, which would allow Japan under their consequences. to deploy troops and use force.

That didn't go over well in Beijing. They led to this war of words, diplomatic crisis. And then earlier this month, Tokyo says Chinese fighter jets locked radar on their F-15s for like 30 minutes. And it took the United States 10 days, two weeks to say to the long pole, our most entrusted ally that we're going to stand behind you, which is crazy. With a B-52 and some exercises. Which is crazy. Yes.

And I'm wondering. And everybody in the rest of the region was watching the United States fumble the ball. Well, so that's kind of the bigger point. Like, first of all, was this a rookie move on her part? How did you read what she said? And also, how worried are we that we got like rising China, increasingly nationalist and militarized Japan, and then the U.S., who seemed willing to just like sell out Taiwan and walk away if we can get an economic deal from the Chinese?

I don't know. You just saw the military package by the president. That was pretty robust on the check. From Congress, right? It did go $11 billion. It was kind of robust. You might be right. I thought it was announced by the administration.

Maybe I'm good. I could be wrong. Okay, so let's go on the core here. I don't think her move was rookie. She actually enunciated what had been the policy. And I actually think what China's upset is now it's explicit. What China never wanted was the cost to be explicit. And it isolated China in the region. My constant refrain when I was in the administration and I think we were there not that I shaped it, but I, not that I declared it, but I influenced it, which was our goal is to isolate the isolator. China's strategy is to constantly take one country, use political, economic, and other type of power to isolate them. But by building the coalition of Australia, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, India, Canada,

that China's the isolate. And they knew it. That's why I, so I think what she did is the right, she said what was always implied. never clear. And now China knows the cost. Second, they're doing a series of things on the island chains of Okinawa that go all the way to within 67 miles of Taiwan, that things that we worked on that I thought would take a decade are happening. Third, my guess is what she is doing helps him at home and what she's doing is helping her at home politically. Because she's in the 70s. As I said, she's the only head of state in the entire developed world that's above 50%. And that's a telling sign. And I think she's done a unique thing.

As a woman, she's gotten the urban centers of Japan excited about this change. On the other hand, her policies are all very old and traditional and conservative. So she's kept the LDP's rural base, brought them back into the fold when they were fading away. So she's got this kind of very interesting, solid position based on the fact that both by person and by policy, she's put together a coalition that the LDP has been struggling for 20 years to get politically. Third, you know, Japan is the long pole of America's policy in Indo-Pacific. Yeah, a lot of troops. And for her to say, one, they went up under our watch from 1% to 2% of GDP to defense spending

from the ninth to the third largest capabilities. They just did something recently that everybody would have said you couldn't do without a constitutional change. They're selling military equipment to Australia. That used to be banned. so they are crossing thresholds because of the security threat now if the united states was all in giving confidence to our allies korea japan australia not doing what we did india which is ridiculous we would have we have a partner now for a robust strategy that would say to china

here are the costs for what you're going to do and you better do you've ever thinking about this And remember one other thing, China's, in my view, first strategy vis-a-vis Taiwan is going to be more of a kind of quarantine. Yeah, we'll blockade. You cannot do that, given where we are in the Philippines and where Japan is on the southern islands of Okinawa that come part of that first island chain. It is not impossible, but very difficult once those capacities are fully mobilized. And so to me, to short end of your comments is I think that it wasn't a rookie mistake and I think it's incumbent upon us not to make her look like she has to back down to China because that will not stay in the Japan periphery. That will reverberate in the region. And if we look like we're weak and we look like we're not a permanent Pacific power and presence, there is no way that countries in that region.

And I'm thinking of Korea and Japan, don't think over the next 10 years that they have to go nuclear. Yeah. If you think the cost of nonproliferation is expensive, you're going to get sticker shock on proliferation. No shit. Yeah. Real scary. Last question, can I get to a flight? Yeah.

I've been thinking a lot about, like, early Obama era counterterrorism policies. A lot of critics say there are way too many drone strikes. The further I get from that time in government, I tend to agree with them. Really? And, well, I tend to feel like the so-called war on terror. writ large has been an abject failure when you see al-Qaeda-like affiliates, ISIS spreading everywhere, right? Now, the counterpoint to that is, when you were chief of staff, 2009, 2010, there were some real deal, scary threats to the United States, you know, the Christmas Day bomber, Times Square bomber.

The guy from Colorado, I'll walk you through that story. Nudgee Blasazi, right? I'll never, yes. Near misses. Like, we luck saved us from catastrophe, right? And then there were these counterterrorism policies, and a lot of those things haven't happened again. So I'm just curious when you reflect on that time and you think about how you'd keep the country safe from terrorism, how that informs your thinking. I've always, so I don't know if you remember this story.

Some young man in the NSA picked up a word on the two of the communications that said the marriage worked. And he just caught him and says, nobody says that. and then he starts to unravel this and where the call was originally made. Now, all the smarty pants poo-poohed this kid. And I, not just me, but the president, myself, you know, Biden, well, run it down.

Turns out, they find out, he goes to Walmart and buys 10 backbacks. He goes to one of those kind of bulk buying, you know, when you buy stuff for the beauty show, all these giant cases that are essential materials for homemade bombs. And then all the smarty pants who thought the kid was out of his mind

because he caught the word, the marriage worked. That's what you say after 20 years, not in 10 seconds, that he was onto something. Then we started finding other stuff in his credit card, and then we put helicopters, and we find out he's starting to drive.

To New York, right? To New York. Yeah. And we had cars to New Jersey. So I'll never forget that 96 hours. I must have aged, and I think the president did too, and we aged, although we had confidence, we had them, in the sense we had them in our line of vision.

But that was breathtaking, and there were other events that you have identified. This was a guy named Najibu Luzazi, who along with two friends, who was going to blow up the New York City subway. I don't know if you remember, but the FBI got ahead of the police department. No, I think the police department.

No, the police department moved. ahead. It is a classic case of the FBI and local law enforcement not exactly being on the same page. But that said, got him before anything. And the imam, it's not clear whether he knew it or was protecting him or was acting like he didn't know him, et cetera, or what his intent was. So to me, I haven't, you know what time I got to be honest. I hadn't really thought about it in a sense did our actions have a reaction that made the situation worse? I do think you have to think about two things. One, people are trying to do harm to the United States. Our border, specifically on the South, have been used by enemies for their advantage. And you have to be,

that doesn't, Donald Trump pulling people's green cards, not letting kids go to school, that's not the end of that's not. But I haven't thought a lot recently about whether the policies we were pursuing in the quote unquote, in the name of the war on terror, both overseas and here actually perpetuated or accentuated because i think actually on one scorecard we haven't really had a local terrorism attack vis-a-vis kind of a 9-11 line yeah so at one level from a homeland front it has worked whether it has created its own uh the terrorist cells just a they've there's as many before there's just more of them spread out and smaller that just may be what both of those are happening in real time,

which is we've protected the home front, but we've created more threats overseas. Yeah, it's a complicated story. Rahm Emanuel, thank you so much for sitting down. Yeah, thank you. Thank you. Great to see you. Could ask you another hour. Happy in a healthy new year and Mazzletoft to you and your wife and the young kids.

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