Pod Save America - “The 750 Dollar Man.”

Episode Date: September 28, 2020

Trump’s taxes reveal that he’s heavily in debt and doesn't pay income taxes, Republicans want to make Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination about her Catholicism instead of her opposition to the Affordable Care Act, and Joe Biden prepares to face off with Donald Trump in the first of three presidential debates. Then Obama campaign manager David Plouffe talks to Jon Favreau about prepping for debates and the battleground states that Joe Biden needs to hit 270 electoral votes.

I do feel that Vice President Biden and Senator Harris are the best choice to lead our country, and I am endorsing them to become President and Vice President of our United States. In my opinion, you are a certified badass. I'm honored and thank you for that. That's a huge compliment. I think you're welcome. Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Jon Levitt.

I'm Tommy Vitor. And that was Vote Save America founder Dwayne The Rock Johnson, who endorsed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris over the weekend and then linked to Vote Save America. The more important endorsement. Which is a surprise to all of us. What an endorsement. Yeah, cool boss. That's the endorsement I cared about. It was Michael Martinez's best day, I think, at Crooked Media.

Our fearless producer, who's a big fan of The Rock, not just endorsed Joe Biden, came off the sidelines as a longtime independent, but also is now the founder of Vote Save America, as it says on his Instagram page. And shout out to the tensile strength of the fabric of that sweater. Yeah, no kidding. My God, they could hold up a suspension bridge. On today's pod, I talked to Obama campaign manager david pluff about the state of the race and what it's like to prep a candidate for presidential debate before that we'll talk about donald trump's nomination of judge amy coney barrett to the supreme court the new york times investigation into trump's taxes and what joe biden needs to get out of tomorrow night's debate hey i just want to

win i just want to say congrats to both of you, both on the Patriots victory and the fact that the charges against Bob Kraft were dropped. Yeah, you really workshop in that one. You waited for that. No, I just didn't want to say it when the mics weren't on. I thought of it moments ago. I could have said it right then. I saved it for a second. You went on the Bob Kraft beat.

Speaking of the Bob Kraft beat, his charges were dropped. Speaking of debates, let's do speaking of debates. There's no better place to watch the debate than on crooked.com slash debate, where a bunch of us from Crooked Media will be doing live commentary on our group thread. Again, that's going to be Tuesday, September 29th at 9 p.m. Eastern, 6 p.m. Pacific at crooked.com. So come hang out with us. Lovett, you had a show this weekend. How was it? We had a great Lovett Relieve It.

Check it out. I plug it every week. I know that not many of you are doing what this plug asks at this point. So why bother? You should check it out. It's your loss. It's doing great without you. I like that. That was a good pitch. Go listen. Go listen, everyone. Cara Brown was on. It was fantastic. It's a very funny episode. Check it out. Excellent. All right, let's get to the news. With just 36 days to go in an election that's taking place in the midst of a deadly pandemic, Donald Trump has nominated a Supreme Court justice who has written that the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional. If confirmed, Amy Coney Barrett would be the court's youngest justice at only 48 years old. She's been a judge for just three years on the Seventh U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. Before Trump appointed her in 2017, she was a full-time professor at Notre Dame Law School, where she developed an extremely conservative judicial philosophy. Here's what she said about that in the Rose Garden on Saturday.

I clerked for Justice Scalia more than 20 years ago, but the lessons I learned still resonate. His judicial philosophy is mine too. A judge must apply the law as written judges are not policymakers and they must be resolute and setting aside any policy views they might hold her judicial philosophy is justice scalia's that sort of spells it out doesn't it not great um i want to talk about barrett in the nomination fight but um i just want to talk quickly about the other serious candidate under consideration was Barbara Lagoa, who serves on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals. Lagoa is from Florida. She's Cuban-American. She won a lot more Democratic votes during her circuit court confirmation. She has a less controversial record. She hasn't been openly hostile to universal health care during a pandemic. record. She hasn't been openly hostile to universal health care during a pandemic.

Lovett, why do you think Trump didn't choose her? Like, what does it say about the Trump campaign that they didn't actually go with what may have been the more electorally palatable choice? I think that there's been a dirty deal at the core of conservative intellectual support for Donald Trump from the very beginning, including from people like Mitch McConnell and serious adjacent conservatives, or what they call serious conservatives. And they've wanted Amy Coney Barrett from the beginning. She is an exemplar of their right-wing judicial philosophy. She is putting someone like her on the court is what makes Donald Trump worth it. And Donald Trump knows that because he knows it's transactional for them and it's transactional for him. I like that he didn't like that she had ties to Jeb Bush. I just think that-

That was my favorite part. I just think that the grievance running through this whole narrative is really, it's just a treat for all of us. What do you think a conversation between Donald Trump and a potential Supreme Court justice is like like what what superficial level of the law does he know to ask about is it just about cases about him before the court do we think well this is what's funny about so the CNN has a great tick tock on like why he didn't choose Lagoa and why he chose Barrett and it's for it's so funny that it's for both the reasons Lovett mentioned and the reason Tommy mentioned,

which is classic Trump. Like there's, you know, a dirty deal that he made with conservatives and there's political considerations. And then there's just the very personal, oh, Jeb nominated her, so I don't like her anymore. But it was funny, Tommy, that in the CNN TikTok, they mentioned that they basically were trying their best

to prevent Trump from even meeting Lagoa. They didn't want to meet her because they were afraid he would get too excited that she would, like, bring in a Cuban voter. He would say something crazy to her. They don't want him meeting with these people. Can't even have a conversation. Who knows what he'll say? He's too stupid. So let's talk about how both parties are approaching this nomination fight.

Let's talk about how both parties are approaching this nomination fight. Trump and Republican senators and MAGA pundits have already concocted an alternative reality where Barrett is being persecuted by Democrats because she's Catholic, a religion shared by the Democratic nominee for president, the Democratic speaker of the House, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, and a Supreme Court justice appointed by the last Democratic president. Tommy, why are Republicans doing this? And aside from the reasons I just mentioned, like, why is it such an absurd accusation? Yeah, I mean, on the absurdity

question. So Joe Biden is Catholic. He would be the second Catholic U.S. president after JFK. If Barrett is confirmed, the Supreme Court will have six Catholics out of nine people. 30% of Congress is Catholic. The suggestion that like somehow Catholics are an aggrieved party in this country is so completely ludicrous. It stems from this moment in the 2017 confirmation hearing with DiFi, which she said something that was kind of dumb. But what's clear is they don't want to talk about the ways that she would rule. They don't want to talk about getting rid of the Affordable Care Act a week after the election in the middle of a pandemic. And so they do what they always do, which is try to create these sideshows. You have clowns like Hugh Hewitt saying that all progressives hate all Catholics and making these, you know, absurd

blanket statements based on some tweet they saw that offended them. And it's, you know, it's actually kind of laughable this time around. Look, I'm a self-hating Catholic, but, you know, not all of us are. I mean, it's just it is like completely ridiculous for them to be talking about her being persecuted because of her religion somehow. And Democrats hate religion, all this kind of stuff. The president of the United States banned immigration from predominantly Muslim countries, and they are all behind him 100 percent. Right. Lovett, what do you think about the whole Catholic controversy? Yeah, I would just add to it that they think that there is a kind of pool of maybe moderate or gettable Catholic voters out there. So it's sort of a two to two for one thing. Right. You can get the conversation away from

the radicalism of her actual judicial philosophy and get it onto ground. They feel more comfortable debating. And you can maybe kind of make some kind of appeal to these people that I just find hard to believe will work because it's so ludicrous. So, yeah, like they are trying to say that the left hates Catholics because the left doesn't want to criminalize abortion. But the right doesn't agree with the Catholic Church and especially this pope on immigration, on climate change, on health care, on poverty. Donald Trump called this pope disgraceful. So it's not actually about being offended by anti-Catholic bigotry. It's about the fact that Joe Biden is winning over more white working class Catholics than Hillary did.

It is like a completely cynical play for a group of voters that they're losing. Well, it's it's there's a connection to, I think, between the the manufactured grievance around an attack on Catholicism when the court will have six Catholics on it. If this person is confirmed in the same way that they claim that there's been this great, you know, scorched earth campaign to prevent conservative judges from reaching the bench when they're about to achieve a 6-3 majority. Their whole mode of running these kinds of campaigns is rooted in grievance and rooted in the fact that, oh, liberals are running roughshod all over them, but it doesn't work as well when they're winning. It doesn't work as well when

they've successfully been able to remake the courts, when there's no reality to the accusation, whether it's around attacks on conservative judges generally or this ridiculous Catholic basically conspiracy. I also think it's very easy for Democrats to like avoid falling into this trap because there's no views that Barrett holds that because she's Catholic that are different than views that a normal conservative would have who isn't Catholic, right? Like there is no need to talk about her religion. She's just a right wing. She believes in a right wing judicial philosophy. That's all you need to know, you know? Yeah. It's not, it's not, it's not a well hidden trap. It's not, there's not a lot, there's not grass over the hole. Just walk around it. Dianne Feinstein said at this 2017 confirmation

hearing, like the dogma lives loudly within you. And she was referring to an article Barrett wrote in 98 that said something like the duty of judges, something about a duty of judges to put their faith above the law and potentially recuse themselves in cases around death penalty, et cetera, et cetera. But she has not actually lived up to that suggestion. She has repeatedly ruled on death penalty cases. So it sort of undercuts the entire argument. All that said, yeah, this is just a sideshow. They just don't want to talk about the ACA. They don't want to talk about her overturning Roe versus Wade. There's a whole bunch of really unpopular positions she will undoubtedly take if she is confirmed. I will say I'm a little surprised that it doesn't seem Republicans understand at all the political

danger that they're in here in having a nominee that is so openly hostile to both the Affordable Care Act and Roe. I mean, Senator Mike Lee said over the weekend, the fact that Congress chose to enact an unconstitutional law shouldn't tarnish Judge Barrett in this. And Donald Trump himself tweeted, Obamacare will be replaced with a much better, far cheaper alternative if it is terminated in the Supreme Court. So saying that it might actually be terminated with her on the court. Why love it? Why doesn't this why don't they seem to think this will hurt them or they just not care about the politics?

Yeah, there's also been a few conservatives who have tried to say, don't worry, she won't actually. This case isn't going to happen. It's not going to happen. Don't worry. They won't actually overturn the ACA. So I think some do recognize the pitfalls in this. You know, it's really hard to say. I think that there are different equities in this. I think Senate Republicans have a different set of goals than Donald Trump. I think they believe in her philosophy. They want someone like that on the court. It feels sometimes in this past couple of days that we're watching like these Senate Republicans and Mitch McConnell is like an old gang getting together for one last heist, just one last time while the walls close in. You know, they probably wouldn't have done it otherwise, but the score was so big they couldn't walk away.

So, you know, I think they just they're pushing their chips forward and want to go out as legends, you know. I just think like this is what they do on almost everything, right? I mean, they talk about discrimination against white people. It's all about grievance, right? There's always a group that's in power and they try to act aggrieved as part of their political strategy, which is just to rally the base, sort of invoke this tribalist partisan sentiment and try to own the lips. You know, I mean, they want to make it about those things.

They want to make it about defeating Democrats and partisan advantage and not about the issues that ever come before the court. And that's sort of like the whole the whole play here. I think it was for Kavanaugh, too, and many others before him. I will say I'm very proud so far of the Democrats for really keeping this on the message of the Affordable Care Act. And I think that's going to be the main challenge in the hearings, because they're going to want to, like you said, Tommy, they're going to want to make it about grievance. And we just have to hammer ACA for the next four weeks, which again, closing out the last couple of weeks of this election about making it about Trump and Republicans wanting to overturn the Affordable Care Act

in the middle of a pandemic. I can't think of a topic I'd rather talk about for the last couple of weeks of the election. Yeah. And I also think, John, to go to your question too, you know, they know that they have a pool of very dedicated voters who vote on these issues. And they are counting on the fact that enthusiasm amongst a minority that supports overturning Roe, that supports a right-wing judiciary, will surmount the losses that come from people worried about Roe, worried about the Affordable Care Act, fundamentally at odds with a court that is so far to the right. So we're going to talk all about the debates in a minute. But one of the issues that will almost certainly come up is today's New York Times report that Donald Trump only paid

seven hundred and fifty dollars in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017 and no federal income taxes at all in 10 of the past 15 years. The piece says that Trump has avoided all these taxes because his businesses reported losing more money than they made, which also means that Trump will have to pay back hundreds of millions of dollars in loans over the next few years. As the Times wrote, quote, ultimately, Mr. Trump has been more successful playing a business mogul than being one in real life. Tommy, reactions to the story? Any other financial malfeasance I missed there? So much of it.

Such a long story. My reaction is multi-part and probably contradictory. I mean, in some ways we knew a lot of this. We've seen previous glimpses into his financial life that showed the entire persona as a successful businessman is just made up. He inherited a ton of money from his dad. He squandered it. And then whenever he lucked upon a business idea that did make him money,

like Trump Tower or The Apprentice, he squandered that by investing all the profits in stupid things that lost money, like a dozen golf courses or whatever. So it shows his brazen public corruption, which is shocking, but not surprising, I guess. And it also explains that like failing to divest his businesses to, you know, steering government business to like his golf courses all the time, like trying to get the G7 there, for example, was born not just of his ego, but also desperation. Like he knows that the U.S. government could foreclose on him if he's not able to pay these debts. desperation. He knows that the US government could foreclose on him if he's not able to pay these debts. And so the other piece of it that just drove me crazy is it made me mad at Jeff Zucker all over again and The Apprentice because not only did that show manufacture his image as a great businessman, it provided him a literal financial lifeline that kept him afloat long

enough to run for president. And then my bigger takeaway, I think, was probably that it made me nervous all over again about what this guy will do to maintain power, because it's not just about ego and not wanting to be a historic, failed one-term president. It's about existential legal and financial threats for him and maybe even for his kids. I mean, there's some stuff in there about Ivanka getting these consulting fees when she was clearly not a consultant on the project that lead me to believe she could be in some trouble, too. So there's a lot to this. And it sounds like the Times is going to keep rolling out stories for the next couple of weeks. Love it. What did you think of the story? And how do you think Biden should talk about this issue? There's like a hundred different targets

in the story and a lot of details, but like, how would you sort of drive at this? Yeah, it's, um, that's right. It is hard to sort of drill down. Like what's the most valuable political piece of this? Like, I don't feel like I know exactly, but you look at the $750 taxes, you know, Dan wrote about this in, in, uh, uh in the newsletter, People Can't Stop Talking About Message Box. But it seems pretty clear, right, that there's some core idea here that fits with the larger story of Trump, which is this is somebody that cares about only himself, who used a rigged tax code to get money that he didn't deserve to keep himself afloat. He then became

president and rigged the tax code even more to protect himself and other people like him. You know, I something that I found striking is, you know, you look at these, you know, there's been a lot of I think, I don't know, I think with Trump, there's this right wing cynicism that's sort of like, ah, this is what these people do. And no, no, no, hold on a second. This is extraordinary. And then it's like, this is unusual, even for the rich, even for tax cheats. This is very unusual. And then you say, oh, well, you know, what's the problem here? You know, the crime is what's legal. It's like, yeah, it is. The crime is what's legal. It is a crime what Trump is able to get away with legally. legal acts inside of these manufactured losses and these fake consulting fees and the kind of you step back and you look at it and you see like there is stuff we don't understand here. There is a kind of, you know, when when when scientists, you know, look up and try to find a black hole, you can't find the black hole, but you can see that it's disturbing things all around

it. You look at Trump's finances, you look at Trump's ridiculous borrowing and spending habits and tax cheating, and you say Trump's ridiculous borrowing and spending habits and tax cheating, and you say there's some piece of this missing. There's some way to make sense of this that we can't see. Illegal contact, illegal money moving around the world, and it has driven him from the day he became president. Now, should Joe Biden say all that? I don't think so. Probably should focus on the fact that Trump didn't pay taxes, and he's a tax cheat who wants to help billionaires and billionaires just like him and rig the system against the middle class. But I'm just telling you

what bothered me. Well, I think there's a little bit of both, though. I mean, we have talked before about, you know, in 2016, like Trump's economic appeal was based on he said he had that quote, all my life I've been greedy. Now I'm going to be greedy for the United States of America. And it was somewhat believable because you're like, yeah, he is a greedy asshole, but maybe he'll use some of that magic to help all of us. Right. Well, it turns out he just decided to be greedy for himself. He didn't give a shit about the rest of the country. He got into office. He used the office to steer money to his businesses, to sort of like you have like lobbyists and foreign actors and everyone else like give money to Trump properties because he needed the money

and didn't do anything for anyone else. And now we have 8% unemployment. The guy couldn't even give people an extra $600 a week for unemployment benefits. He wants to take away their healthcare coverage. He doesn't want to give any more direct payments. He doesn't want to help any more small businesses in the middle of pandemic.

But meanwhile, he's working the system as hard as he can to pay off his debts. That's who he is. That's who he is. Yeah, it's probably not how you want to close out a campaign for being honest here. I mean, yeah, there's a bunch of pieces like there's some there are juicy details in this story. Like I bet you 80% of the country ultimately knows that he paid $750 in federal taxes one year. I bet a similar number here is about the $70,000 in write-offs for hair care or whatever it was. And to your point, John, in 2015 and 16, he did have this populist side of him. He pretended that he was going to change the way you tax hedge fund guys because they were getting away with murder. that he was going to change the way you tax hedge fund guys because they were getting away with murder. This story shows that he has been exploiting all the same loopholes. He is a tax

cheat. And you have to make a case about a corrupt system that lets rich jerks like Donald Trump use tax loopholes and accounting tricks to do things that would get the rest of us audited or maybe thrown into jail. So I do think this is a big deal. I think Biden should play this up at the debate. And it's something that people will hear. And, you know, for all the Teflon Don, nothing impacts him. This will be remembered. This will undercut his core argument for why he ran in the first place, which was that he's a successful business guy who could translate that to running the country. That didn't happen. Well, and again, remember our change research polling in the six battleground states of new and infrequent voters,

the message that was most successful at actually moving voters towards Joe Biden was an economic message we wrote up that contrasted Donald Trump's plan and Joe Biden's plan. And it was populist in nature. And this just puts a finer point on that. Trump, if elected for a second term, wants to give the 10 richest billionaires in the country a $17 billion tax cut. Joe Biden would raise taxes on the 1%, raise taxes on big corporation, cut taxes for the middle class, $15 minimum wage, free college if you're making under $125,000, expanded rent subsidies, 12 weeks paid family leave. Like if I were the Biden campaign, I would hope in the debate that not only would you hit him for the tax story, but talk about what you would do to change the tax system, what you would do for people and what Donald Trump will continue to do for people just

like Donald Trump. Yeah, I also one thing that you take away from this, too, is there is a lot of political value, I think, in talking about going after white collar crime, that we need a new and renewed focus on white collar crime. There's, you know, ProPublica put this out. A few people have been talking about this, that the most audited county in America is a small, rural, poor, black county in Mississippi because they audit people who use the earned income tax credit, but they don't take care of and don't go after and don't look at people like Donald Trump. And I think there's a lot of like, that's good populism

to me. Like, talk about that. All right, let's move on to the debates. On Tuesday night, Donald Trump and Joe Biden will face off in the first of three presidential debates. This one will take place in Cleveland, Ohio, and be moderated by Chris Wallace of Fox News, who chose the following six 15-minute segments. The records of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the Supreme Court, coronavirus, the economy, race and violence in our cities, is what he's calling it, and the integrity of the election. Joe Biden has been preparing with his staff, while Donald Trump has been preparing by demanding that Joe Biden take a drug test in between rounds of golf. Lovett, considering where the race is and how many voters have told

pollsters they've already made up their minds, how much do you think these debates matter? You know, nothing has fundamentally changed the dynamic in this race. The coronavirus hasn't done it. Nothing we've seen in the past three months have been able to move the polls very dramatically. When people go and say things like, oh, this tax story doesn't matter, it's like, well, okay. But for Donald Trump, things have to start mattering and have to start mattering a great deal to start changing the dynamic. Do I think it's possible that something can happen in a debate that can fundamentally change the dynamic in this race right now? It doesn't seem like it. I think of it as an opportunity for Joe Biden to, you know, make a case for himself while dodging

the kind of bullshit and torrent of lies and misinformation and attacks and nonsense that will come from Donald Trump to seem presidential, to demonstrate the kind of leader he will be and give the people we've been talking about in our polls and in other polls that are kind of looking for, that are leaning towards Joe Biden and are looking for information, looking for a reason to come on board. Tommy, what do you think? And if you're on the Biden campaign, what do you want voters to take away from this debate? I mean, so here's what we know about debates, right? Like a ton of people watch them. The first Clinton-Trump debate had 84 million viewers.

And then the coverage probably reached tens of millions more. We also know that in 2016, only 10% of voters said they had made up their minds during or after the debates. And I suspect that number will be lower this year, given how many people are already decided. So that does suggest that it's going to be hard to move the numbers a lot. I also think for Trump, like your debate performance isn't going to convince anyone that you did a good job of the coronavirus, that that ship has sailed. I want to see Joe Biden being the optimistic, happy warrior who's going to fight for the middle class because that's who he is. I love the framing of because that's who he is. I

love the framing of Scranton versus Wall Street. I think that's aided enormously by this New York Times tax story. And you know it's effective because the minute Biden started down that path, Republicans were crying about class warfare, right? Like, oh no, how dare you do this, right? So you know that's when it hurts. I think he needs to get past delivering a message about Trump being a bad human being, be immoral, being unethical. It's got to be a bigger story about Republican policies that are corrupt and helping rich people cheat, like we talked about a minute ago. You know, I also would love to hear him say something like, I get why people wanted to

change in 2016 and considered voting for someone new, something different. But it's clear that you are not up for the job and you have failed. Right. And so talk about who you are, what you do, do it with a smile. Don't get down too deep into the mud, but also I don't think he can like let Trump just lie the whole time. Yeah, I mean, I keep thinking of Michelle Obama's line from her convention speech that Donald Trump is in over his head. And like, if I was Joe Biden, the frame I'd want to put Donald Trump in is not he's a liar. He's a scary authoritarian. He's bad for all that kind of stuff. He is weak. He is ineffective. He is in over his head and he is out of touch with the problems of the country. He has no fucking idea what's actually going on in

people's lives. He is because Donald Trump will try to paint Joe Biden as like an old guy, right? You see now he's been trying to do that the whole time. Joe Biden can turn that on him early and show that he's sort of like the dotty old racist, as Levitt says, who like doesn't know what the hell he's doing, isn't in control of his government, chaos all around him. All he cares about is himself, doesn't care about other people. And then I do think it's a it's an opportunity for Joe Biden to sort of lay out in broad strokes, not details like what he's going to do for the country, for some of those wavering voters. Love it. What if you're prepping Biden for Trump? What would you tell him to expect? What would you tell him to watch out for? I think it's almost like you can almost like have

in debate prep Donald Trump played by a noisemaker. Just somebody that does this. Just somebody that spins a ratchet and just makes noise, makes noise, makes noise. Yes, it just doesn't really like maybe that's too glib. Maybe that's not right. Like Donald Trump is a broken old racist fool and he's going to make a lot of noise. He's going to throw a lot of shit out there. He's going to interrupt. No puppet, no puppet, your puppet throw a lot of shit out there. He's going to interrupt.

No puppet, no puppet, your puppet. We're going to remember all. It's going to be the same. He's not prepping. There's no prep. So there's no new material going into his brain. No new material has entered his brain in quite some time. So it's going to be a kind of like noisy bit

of all the kind of greatest hits. He's going to attack Joe Biden in every way possible. This is, as Tommy said, you know, 80 million people, maybe more watching this year. It's an opportunity to just sort of reach the country and remind, kind of situate the race, the scale of it, the stakes of it, the pain the country's in, the seriousness of the economic crisis, the seriousness of the pandemic, the seriousness in terms of the threats to our democracy, and kind of use it as an opportunity to simply be president. We've talked about this a lot that, you know, in many ways, you know, Donald Trump has tried to run as a challenger,

right, to kind of declare bankruptcy on his first four years and get a restart. And Joe Biden has been demonstrating throughout this campaign that he is showing you what a president is supposed to do, that this is what a president sounds like, this is what a president looks like. And I think for a lot of people, that's going to be really important. And I think there's a lot of people out there who that will resonate with quite deeply. And maybe for the first time seeing it, you know, on this stage that has such history to it. And by the way, like, don't let him slip into challenger mode. Trump, don't let him act like he's the challenger.

I think it's one of the reasons that like, I mean, it's partly because he was a senator for so long. But it's good for Joe Biden to continue to call him Mr. President, Mr. President, President Trump, and not Donald Trump, right? Like, I think he, I think it helps to remind people as they're talking about all the problems and all the crises the country is facing, you are the president, because Donald Trump is going to complain about everything. He's going to blame Joe Biden. He's going to blame Barack Obama. He's going to blame politicians in Washington for the last 47, he's going to do the 47 years. You've been around 47 years and you haven't changed anything. Hey, man, you're the president right now, right now. So Trump's obviously going to

lie for most of the debate. On Sunday, the Commission on Presidential Debates co-chair Frank Ferencop Jr. said that he doesn't expect Chris Wallace or any of the moderators to fact check the candidates because, quote, the minute the TV is off, there are going to be plenty of fact checkers at every newspaper and every television station in the world. That's not the main role of our moderators. Tommy, should it be up to Joe Biden to fact check Donald Trump for the entire debate? Should it be up to the moderators? What do you think? No, I mean, some of my advice to Joe Biden would be don't shake his hand because, you know, you never know if he just like high five a COVID handkerchief. Like, don't kind of look dumbstruck when he's lying and don't fact check him on everything

because you don't have to. But what's the point of having a moderator if they're not fact checking in some way? You might as well just have them read the questions to themselves off of cards. I just don't I don't understand this. The U.S. media can be aggressive in a lot of ways. Presumably, that's why you picked Chris Wallace. Why are they so oddly passive about this? Because if you don't do any fact checking, you advantage the person who is willing to lie the most. You play into the Trumpian, you know, alternate facts. Facts don't matter reality. I don't get it. I find it so infuriating. I'm not saying you need to fact check in real

time every statement he made, but like some things are true and some things are false. Why is that not relevant in a political debate to see who becomes the president of the United States? Love it. What do you think? Yeah, I mean, sort of, you know, sort of what the point of refs are, you know, make sure that there's some, otherwise there's no rules, right? If, if misinformation and information are treated equally over the course of the debate, uh, that does a real disservice, um, to the people watching and yeah, there's going to be tons of fact-checking and people going over the thing, but do you have any respect for the people that are tuning in and aren't as well-versed in every policy detail as you are any respect for them

trying to trust you to help them understand the stakes of this election, any any fealty to them as opposed to to Donald Trump and the two parties, like any any regard for those human beings at all? That would be my that'd be my question. Well, they're like, you know, Joe Biden can fact check him and, you know, Donald Trump. But like Joe Biden is running for president, as is Donald Trump. They don't have the same kind of credibility when they fact check each other because they obviously have their own interests at heart. Like I don't the craziest thing is being like, oh, it's up to Joe Biden to fact check Donald Trump. No, it's fucking not. It doesn't make any sense. That's why you have a moderator. That's why you have a neutral party, right? Like, and I get it. Like, it would be

impossible to spend 90 minutes fact checking everything Donald Trump says. Chris Wallace, Kristen Welker, all these debate moderators, they cannot do that. But there's going to be big ones. There's going to be obvious ones that you can jump in on at times. It's also, you know, you kind of go back to like, what is the purpose of this debate? Right. It's not actually a debate contest. It's an opportunity for these two people to hash it out over who's best to lead the country. If it's Joe Biden's job to not only tell the American people what he'll do as president,

but also protect the American people from the misinformation coming from the other podium, that's a lot to ask for the other person to do. That's a real steep climb to put on one side, and it really does advantage misinformation. And one of the lessons of the last five years is we have a fundamental problem in which we are not doing enough to disadvantage the use of misinformation. Chris Wallace has a real opportunity to help the American people face the crisis of misinformation. That is his job. There's no other reason to be there. Otherwise, print the questions out and put them on big signs and show the signs. But also, you know, if the moderator's job isn't to fact check, okay, but we also know the press

doesn't view its job as to fact check either. They often score these things on style points, right? I mean, the famous Ronald Reagan, there you go again line was his way of spinning out of getting called on all the things he lied about or his very extreme positions that he had taken previously in his career. And the press was like, oh, what a performance. The audience laughed. He seemed genial. Like, what's the point? Why is anyone doing this nonsense if we don't care about facts and truth? I mean, I feel like this is one of the first times where I've really felt like we have not learned anything from 2016. These debates are they're not on the level, guys. They're not on the level. All right. So in these in these last 36 days on Pod Save America,

we are going to take some questions from you guys since we don't have a mailbag episode between now and the election. So we're going to end every episode with a few questions. I think we might have some music for this. Questions. Meredith Graves via Facebook asks, I have monthly donations set up to various candidates, but still get bombarded with panicked sounding texts about quarterly fundraising deadlines, et cetera. What do these deadlines actually mean? Are they important, Tommy? They're important. I mean, there are moments when campaigns have to disclose publicly how much money they've raised. And if you have a good quarter, it's seen as a sign of momentum and success with your candidacy. If you have not raised a lot of money, it's seen as a sign that you could be in trouble. It's also something that's looked at by the campaign committees in Washington, like the DSCC or the DNC, when they make determinations at the end of an election about where to put their scarce resources. So that's why people are always beating you at the end of the quarter.

They just want to post the best number they possibly can before it becomes public. the end of the quarter. They just want to post the best number they possibly can before it becomes public. Alex, Alex Goebel via Facebook asks, can a conservative majority in the Supreme Court block any possibility of an expanded court or other Supreme Court related reforms, even if we get a Democratic House, Senate and president? Love it. You got thoughts on that? So there's nothing in the Constitution that requires there to be nine Supreme Court justices that said anything is possible with a conservative court trying to maintain its power. But Congress has broadly a way to add justice to the Supreme Court. It's happened many, many times in our past, and there's no reason to believe they couldn't do it again. Yeah, I think that's the best bet is like there's precedent for it. They've changed it.

The Congress and the president have changed the size of the supreme court before via legislation it has gone through it can happen again um grant weaver via community asks can you go into more depth on how campaign money is spent we hear about large amounts of money being raised just curious how many tv or digital ads that gets the campaign how many voters etc the numbers are so abstract i do not know exactly i don't know if you guys do exactly how much money uh every ad. It depends on the market. First of all, there are some media markets in the country that are more expensive, some bigger cities than others. But obviously, campaign money is spent on digital ads, on television ads, on polling and data. So they know which group of voters to talk to, how the campaign's doing, how to reach different voters,

voter contact, staff, organizers, volunteers. Am I missing anything? What else does campaigns spend money on? Pieces of mail that gets thrown in the garbage. Mail, yeah. Junk food. Mail that gets thrown in the garbage. Yeah. I think you nailed it. I'd take out volunteers because they're free, but the rest, I mean, look, organizers, Unfortunately, a lot of this money is going to be spent on television ads, which is, you know, not how you wish democracy worked, but often can be effective. That's true. Alex Trugman asks, oh, guys, why do I keep eating late night dominoes? Love it. Well, you know, we're in a pandemic and a crisis in our democracy and a growing self-evident climate crisis and one of the most important periods in politics in our history, surrounded by, you know, chaos and anger and fear. So normally you might turn to say, grabbing a drink with an old friend at a bar or, or, you know, maybe going to the old bowling alley, you know, knocking down a couple of couple of pins. But many of these things are not available as the pandemic has basically drained joy from our

lives and the failure to contain it has meant we can't go back to the things that made life worth living. And so if you at night decide at 10 o'clock to add dinner number two by ordering yourself a hand-tossed pan pizza, you know what? Don't say ugh. Say I deserve it. That's what I say. It's better than Papa John's. Then download some Noom. Yeah, I did. I can't believe it is now six months of every day saying to myself, you know what? You deserve dessert today. Every day for six months. I had a slice of coconut cream pie last night. That sounds delicious. Very good.

Delicious. Very good. All right. Very good. Delicious. Very good. All right. If you have other questions, you can text us anytime at 323-405-9944. We might just answer your question on an upcoming Pod Save America.

When we come back, we will have former Obama campaign manager, David Plouffe. Joining us today, yet another former Obama staffer who's gone on to become a host of multiple podcasts, Campaign HQ and Battleground. He's also the author of A Citizen's Guide to Beating Donald Trump and Ripples of Hope. David Plouffe, welcome back to the pod. Thanks, John. Always good to be with you. Just following in your esteemed footprints. We're all following your podcast journey now. Imagine if Obama knew that then when he left the White House, all of us would just go make podcasts now. That's our thing.

All of his staff. He'd be horrified. Well, he's a podcast guy, too. That's true. He jumped on the bandwagon. He was a holdout, but yes. All right. I want to talk about the map and the debate. But first, I want to get your reaction to this New York Times tax story. Biden folks were already out with an ad about how almost

everyone else in America pays more taxes than Trump. How hard would you hammer this issue, knowing, as we do, that most undecided or uncertain voters already have a largely negative view of the president and want to know more about Biden? Well, I think, yeah, I would not make it front and center necessarily. Let's just talk about the debate. So we're going to talk about our democracy and Trump wanting to basically not accept election results. You can tie this to that, which is now we know why he doesn't want to leave the White House. He sees it as a safe house because he fears what's on the other side in terms of investigation and debt and recriminations. I think when you're talking about your economic plans, your tax plans,

how you're going to rebuild the economy post pandemic, I think putting this front and center is important to say, you can't trust this guy. This is the way he sees the economy. So, you know, to me, it's still, who do you trust to ultimately get this out of the pandemic? But a lot of that is, you know, your economic plan. So to me, it's just another piece of really important weaponry in your core argument you're already making. So let's talk about the map. As you've known, since we first started working together in 2008, I'm unable to step off the polar coaster, even for a brief moment. I think back then, the state that I bugged you about the most was Pennsylvania. Obama won it twice. Hillary lost it very narrowly. And now Biden has a small lead,

but it's a lead that's not quite as large as his leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, even though he's from Scranton, lives next door in Delaware. What's your sense of what's happening in Pennsylvania and what Biden needs to do there to get over the top? Well, John, first of all, it's good you've just fully embraced your polar coaster issues. Yeah, I'm not even going to try. Why lie to everyone else and myself? So I do think Pennsylvania is the state where Trump is, of all the battlegrounds, sort of outperforming his core political standing. So I think part of that is the state itself is changing a little bit. So any Republican may benefit from that.

But I think Trump is a very strong Pennsylvania candidate. He's going to overperform in the areas between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. He's going to overperform, I think, in some of the exurban areas outside of Pittsburgh. So, you know, there's so many parts of Pennsylvania. So what is going to be Biden's margin out of southeastern Pennsylvania, both Philadelphia City and the suburbs? What kind of margin can he walk out of Pittsburgh with? But, you know, Trump, as you know, won Erie County. We won it in 2012 by 18 points. It's a big blue collar County, Trump carried it. He also did very well along the river, including in Scranton. And so to me, if Biden can walk out

of southeastern Pennsylvania with margins like Hillary had or even better, I do think he's going to do better in some of those big blue-collar counties. I think there's a mistake when we think, well, Trump just blew it out in rural areas and exurban areas. He also did quite well in some of these blue-collar areas, the eastern and western parts of Pennsylvania being the greatest examples. And I think Trump's going to get really good turnout. I think he's going to drive turnout in Pennsylvania. So I think some of this is, you remember back in 2012, John, I mean, we won Pennsylvania, but it was closer.

We were confident we were going to win. We didn't throw everything into Pennsylvania. We did other states like Ohio. But we could see it moving a little bit. And so I think Trump's going to drive big turnout there. So to me, but if Biden can take back some of the territory Trump took in Erie County, in Northampton County, in areas like Scranton, he's not going to win it maybe four or five points at the max. But right now I'd rather be Biden than Trump. But that's what makes me nervous is I think Michigan looks like almost a done deal for Biden. Is there any other state right now you'd say, oh, we definitely got that? I don't feel that way about any state.

I feel pretty good about Wisconsin, Arizona, but Pennsylvania is going to be close. So that's when, you know, and you're encouraging so many people to be active, adopt states. We've got to keep that up because that's what keeps me up at night is maybe less a poll that comes out than just, I can't say, oh, 270 is done. It's just not. No, I feel the same way. And I feel like you just said better about Wisconsin and Arizona, but I don't feel like either of those are locked down either.

Especially, I feel like some of the polling in Arizona has been a little tighter. Why did you, I'm surprised that Pennsylvania ended up ended up being closer than Wisconsin. Do you think it's something about the electorate in Pennsylvania that's different or their issue areas? Well, I think the some of the areas outside of Pittsburgh are getting more conservative. They, you know, eight to 10, 12 years ago, Democrats would do better in some of those counties. And some of those counties have a decent amount of population. So, you know, you add to your margin there, if you're Republican, those are real votes you're putting on the board. I also think the, you know, James Carville, in a way that insults people, Pennsylvania called it pencil tucky, right, between Pennsylvania and

Philadelphia. But, you know, Trump won some of those counties, 75-25, where we might have been able to keep them at 58-42 or 60-40. So some of that's unique to Trump, but won some of those counties, 75-25, where we might have been able to keep them at 58-42 or 60-40. So some of that's unique to Trump, but just some of it's the state is getting more conservative. And not to look beyond this election, listen, the Electoral College is not static. It doesn't mean at the end of this decade, if Arizona becomes like Nevada and North Carolina becomes like Virginia, those would be two big moves in the Electoral College to our side and much less Texas. But some of these upper Midwestern states and Pennsylvania could get

harder and harder over time. So this isn't just like, we're going to keep them all and just add Texas and Georgia and Arizona. My guess is we're going to have to replace some of those states over time. Well, let's talk about Florida. We haven't talked about that state yet, where a Biden win could actually end the election on Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. The race is incredibly tight there. I'm still haunted not only by Hillary's narrow loss, but Nelson and Gillum's losses in 18, especially after the polls showed both of them with a small but stable lead the whole time. What's your sense of Florida and what Biden has to do there and what's going on there? First of all, it's enormously frustrating, and I've done this as well, to say, well,

if he wins Florida, that means the election's over. Like, that shouldn't matter. Or, you know, it'll be clear he's going to win by a lot. So then Trump will finally concede. Like, if Biden wins by one vote or one state, you know, he should be, he'll be the president. So Florida, to me, is the place where some of Biden's outside strengths, outside strengths of some of the electorate really come into focus. So his strength with white senior citizen voters, his strength with suburban women, which was true for us in 16,

certainly for the party in 18, but we're seeing him at even higher levels in some places. That in the northern part of the state and the central part of the state where there's so many swing voters really gives him, I think, an advantage. The question will be, just like in Pennsylvania, I think Trump's going to drive huge turnout. It's actually, of all the battleground states in 16, based on the data I've seen, the place where I think Trump did drive great turnout. He didn't drive great turnout in a lot of places.

He got it in Florida. One of the reasons Hillary lost. I think he'll add to that. And clearly he's making a play for Cuban-American voters, the Venezuelan community. Now, Biden is not going to win the Hispanic vote in Florida by 70-30 like he might in Arizona because Trump's going to do well with Cuban American voters in particular. But if Biden can keep the Cuban vote close in the southern part of the state and do very well with the Puerto Rican community, Colombian community, Valenzuelan community, he could probably get in

the, let's say, 55, 56 range. So to me, I like what's happening with Florida with Biden's strength in the central and northern part of the state. What keeps me up at night is Trump's, is Trump going to get outsized turnout and Biden either from a vote share or turnout standpoint doesn't meet his mark. Now, remember back in 16, John, it wasn't just polls. The early vote looked exceptionally good for Hillary Clinton. And then the election day story was much different for Trump versus Clinton. So you got to run through the tape all the way through. So, but I feel good about Florida because Biden also, you know, and Biden, you know, every candidate has strengths and weaknesses. Some of his weaknesses with younger voters and intensity, you know, it's getting better. And I think the debate can go a long way to closing

that gap, but he has unique strength with older voters. And, you know, I think that is why his lead in Florida, by the way, he has better numbers in Florida than we had in either of our two races. You remember back in 2012, news organizations said they weren't going to poll Florida anymore because Romney had won it. I do remember that. So I feel this is where we shouldn't be dishonest with people. Biden's in a really good place in the race, in Florida included, but polls aren't votes. And so when you look at how many votes are actually going to be cast in Florida, you know, millions and millions of votes, maybe 10 million votes, you know, Trump's going to

bring his turnout, I think. And so that's Biden's challenge. I think if it was just a normal turnout election, I'd feel exceedingly confident about Florida. There's a lot of work to do to make sure that he reaches his turnout. And Florida is like running a campaign on the planet. It is super complicated. It's large. And so Trump's had an advantage because he's an incumbent. He's planned this Florida campaign for four years. to see Biden, I think, pick up the pace with some really great Spanish language media. I think they're doing a lot of good organizing work. They're virtually on the ground. So to me, it is a checkmate state, not because that means Trump will concede. It just means it doesn't mean Biden's at the presidency, but he's at 259 if you are 261, if he carries all the Hillary states in that one. So then he just has to have one state of some significance, like a Wisconsin or Michigan. At that point, Florida and Michigan is probably your straightest way to the presidency. Right. If you're the Biden campaign, how much time and money are you spending in places like

Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, even Texas, where the race is closer than we might've expected, but they aren't likely to be the tipping point states that get you to 270? Well, one of the surprising things is from a financial standpoint, they probably have the resources to do it all. We didn't expect that to be the case. So here's what I'd say. Is there a scenario where Joe Biden loses Arizona, loses North Carolina, loses Florida and wins Texas? I don't think that's likely. Right. So same thing. Is he going to lose Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin and win Ohio? No. So these are likely as 330th or 350th electoral vote. So I wouldn't spend a dollar, an ounce of brainpower or any staff time on those

states until you're comfortable, you're doing everything you need to do in the core battlegrounds. And I think they probably do finances to do that. So the question is, as long as they're not straining their staff too much or their creative teams too much, yeah, they've got the money to go put spots on the ground and do some organizing in the Georgias, in the Ohioas, in the Ohioas, in the Texas's. So you can't do that in a way that would sacrifice anything in the core battlegrounds. But you see, Trump has taken the bait. I mean, he's also spent money in those states. He's starting to restrain that a little bit. To me, that's malpractice. I mean, Donald Trump's now getting outspent by Joe Biden and he's losing. So their campaign is the one

that can't waste a single dollar, a single second of thought on a state that's not a tipping point electoral college state. Are there any groups of voters that are sort of keeping you up at night? Like I've been looking, digging through some of these polls and the data and it's like young voters, particularly young voters of color, particularly young voters of color who are men. polls, but they're also sort of inching up in the undecided column and the third party column. Like, I'm just not sure what to think about that, but it does seem to be something that's fairly consistent in all of the data. Right. And again, we should, we should talk about this through the prism of Joe Biden is in, has a stable and significant lead right now in the states he needs to win. Right. So you're looking probably more for things that could slip than areas you're disappointed with. But listen, I think we ought to take the Michael Jordan mentality to

politics, which is if you head into halftime winning by eight, you're like pissed and kicking chairs because you're not up by 16. Okay. So where could we see slippage? Yes, you're right. Young, both Hispanic and young black men, both in terms of turnout, but also vote share. Trump is clearly, if I recall, he got maybe 10 or 12 percent of the male African-American vote back in 16. Actually didn't get much attention, but you'd like to get that now south of 10 again. So that's an issue. And then certainly on turnout. Does Biden either keep or get as close to possible maintaining his current support with seniors? You've got to watch that carefully. Is there any movement there? College educated white men, you know, have definitely been a source of strength for Biden right now. They're not a massive share of the swing electorate. But, you know, do you see any slippage there as we get

closer to election day? And then listen, suburban college educated women may end up voting for Biden and Democratic Senate candidates almost to the same level that Hispanic voters do. It's becoming a core Democratic base. So I think you're watching. That's where we are in the race, which is on the I think on the persuasion side of things. Biden's basically at a ceiling. So what you're watching for there is, is there any slippage? What the Biden campaign is trying to do is just keep those voters where they are. I don't think there's much more to be gained. Then I think on the turnout side, you know, John, that's, you know, when you're up looking at polls at 3 a.m. Pacific time, that's what's got me up at 3 a.m. It's just, it's not hard. I don't think it's likely to happen, but it's not

hard to construct a scenario where Trump gets Bush 04 Ohio-like turnout in five or six states. Biden just doesn't meet that mark. And then it doesn't mean Biden will lose, but then I think it's going to be exceedingly close. So to me, and that's where I think the debate can go a long way to exciting Democrats. People have waited four years for this fraudulent, grifting criminal to be held to account. And other than Chris Wallace for a few minutes, they haven't had it. And if Joe Biden can do that, I really think that's going to help him with swing voters, but also help with intensity. So those are the groups that worry me. So those are the groups that worry me. I think Miami-Dade County, there was a poll that came out from Ben Dixon and Amani that got a lot of attention, rightly so, that showed Biden not doing quite as well as you'd like him to do. He's offsetting some of that with his strengths up in the central and northern part of the state. But I'd also pay attention there. Now, there it is, the Cuban community, young Hispanics, young black voters. You basically, it's a window into all that in a place that's really hard to reach voters. So yeah, those are all the voting courts I think we need to pay really, really high. And then listen, in early vote where we don't know how you voted, but we

know that you have requested a ballot or that you've returned it, are you seeing a lot of first time Republican voters? Are you seeing a lot of infrequent Republican voters? That would be a signal that Trump's going to, you know, really, really juice his turnout. Okay. What's your level of concern or do you have any concern about the fact that Democrats aren't out there knocking on doors, but the Republicans are because they don't give a shit that we're in the middle of a pandemic? Well, yeah, my view on door knocking, I think most people who would be targets for door knocking don't want someone at their door. It's the same thing with the rallies. Like Trump's rallies being said, there's no doubt that it's a missing part of the arsenal. There are some people that may be the only way you get them to register

or maybe the best way to convince them to turn out. So if I were the Biden campaign, and there's a lot of other Democratic groups, obviously, they're also taking this approach, which I think is the right approach, which is to put safety first. But if you get to the point where there's a decent chunk of voters in a state who seem like they'd be open to receiving a door knock and you've got plenty of people willing to do it, you can do that in a safe way. So, you know, I'd let the health experts and science guide that. I don't think Trump's gaining much from this activity, but it does worry me a little bit because, you know, we don't live in 100% virtual world. And I think the Biden campaign and, John, you guys have been so amazing with Vote Save America getting people activated.

People are doing great texting and phone calling. We know phone answering rates are up, postcards, sharing content. So, you know, that's a lot of the pie. But the missing piece of the pie is that human contact. And, again, my sense is right now there's not a lot of people who are interested in having that. But it makes me nervous because, as we know from the Obama campaigns, you know, it was graded to be the best voter contact there was. Right. All right. Let's talk about this debate. You and I have been part of some successful debate prep sessions, a few memorable unsuccessful debate prep sessions.

What would you be telling Joe Biden that he needs to get out of this debate? Like, what is the list of top things he absolutely has to do knowing that you can't have him do everything, but you need like two or three things, like don't leave the stage without doing this? Yeah. Well, you know, John, I think in general elections, we had like five. Well, I don't know if the prep sessions were good. We had five good debates. We had some bombs in the primary for sure. I think that my view is the most important thing from an attribute standpoint is for him to be tough and in command. he need to because, you know, I think there's like a difference in how the judges score the things like debates and maybe what he needs to do from an electoral voter standpoint. Right. Which is like we know from the data that that Biden needs to like people want to know who Biden is, what he stands for, what he's going to do. Right. So that's like really important. On the other hand,

Trump's going to be a maniac, Adam the whole time And like, how much does Biden need to parry that attack back, defend himself? Like what's the balance? Well, it's, it's such a hard question. First of all, successful candidates in debates, you know, remember who they are. So, you know, he has to be who Joe Biden is. So here's the thing, his empathy for those that know it, his experience, people's confidence that he would put together a good administration. All those things are things he should remind people of. But right now in the race, to the extent there are still some swing voters and then there's some soft Biden's voters and maybe a few soft Trump voters. And who are like, they've heard the comments, they've seen the ads, is Biden up to this? They're not looking at his interviews. So I think he's got to answer the mail there. And then, you know,

we could use a little bit more excitement amongst younger voters on the Democratic side. So to me, it's not chasing down every Trump attack. It's not being defensive. It's not being angry on your own account. It's being angry, you know, in a controlled way on behalf of the American people. So Trump is not a normal incumbent president. He has failed the country. He's suggesting he's going to basically end our democracy and turn it into an autocracy. Hundreds of thousands of people have died. Many of them didn't have to if he'd handled this differently. We now see that he is maybe the best example of a corrupt cheat and fraud from a tax and business standpoint. I think Biden needs to channel the anger people have and really be tough with him, not in a yelling way, not in a screaming way, just in an intense way. And he needs to do that. Basically, the American people are his client. basically the American people are his client. So as you know, you and I have never believed that a successful debate is determined by who had the best line. It's good to have one or two of those,

particularly in a social media world. So Biden just needs to be a consistent performance where he basically puts Trump on trial. I think he can mock him somewhat. I think he should interrupt Trump when Trump's lying somewhat. And then obviously fill in, but what's important is the next four years. And here's what I'm going to do. What Biden can't do is spend time defending his vote from 1994 statement from 1976. We know Trump's going to come after Hunter. Now, I think the comeback is even easier with this tax story. That is a place where I wouldn't, no one wants to hear about our children. You know, I would have 10 or 15 seconds where you go right at Trump and his family and say, but let me focus on the rest of the American people. So this is a hard debate to prepare for. You know, you want to win the pandemic exchange, the exchange on tax rates, the exchange on democracy, and you can prepare for that. But where Trump takes this debate, you don't know. And so I think with Biden, you've got to embrace his unpredictability and say, you know what, you're going to go out there with some core things you got to get done, but you need to be agile. And that means Biden may color out the lines, you know, two or three times as well, but that's okay. But I want,

I want swing voters to watch that debate tomorrow night and say, this guy's up to the job. I think he can dig us out of this hole. And I want younger voters in particular to say that was one tough SOB. I loved how he just basically pushed Trump all over the stage, metaphorically. I know that's a big standard, but I think that's what we need because I think a good first debate can help not put this race away,

but really freeze a lot of the great things we're seeing right now with different demographics, as you asked earlier, and it's going to make it really hard for Trump to unwind that. Philippe Reines, who played Donald Trump in the mock debates with Hillary Clinton back in 2016, wrote a piece in The Post a couple of days ago, and he said Donald Trump is a bad debater, but he's hard to debate. Like what what do you think like Biden should be prepared for in terms of Trump and like surprises from Trump?

Or do you just have to just go in there and think he's going to be fucking nuts? He's going to be just like his Twitter feed. And I just have to play my game and not worry about him. Well, I think. Yeah. So you can't prepare for every wild punch he's going to throw. But I think you can have a sense of how you'll deal with stuff that maybe you weren't anticipating. But I think you can have a sense of how you'll deal with stuff that maybe you weren't anticipating. One is, you know, you once again are just flat out lying to the American people. You once again are distorting reality because you're worried about yourself, not about, you know, the latest political attack or tweet you're going to send. Whatever it is, you need to have a home base to get back to. And so whatever wild punch

Trump throws, the key thing is for Biden, in my view, no matter what it is, not to really address it. You know, just basically to put it in a corner of lying or narcissism or cheap political attacks. You know, if he does have to respond to it, do it in like five seconds and then get to your core argument. I mean, as you know, your answer segments are so short. They are so short. So he's got to be prepared, I think, for whatever his retort is to get that done in five or 10 seconds and go to the meat of his answer. But listen, we know one of Joe Biden's strengths. Yes, his empathy and his goodness. And he's one of the most empathetic and good people on the planet, not just in politics.

But as you know, he's got some rawness. He's got some toughness. He's got Scranton on his sleeve. And I think he needs to bring that. I don't want this to be like a geriatric WWE match. I don't think that works. But here's the thing. Trump's the bully. Right. There can't be a single moment in that debate where it looks like Trump's getting the best of Biden. And I think Biden is in Trump's head. It's why he got impeached. And I think Biden can really utilize that. I think Trump's going to be wetting his depends tomorrow night. I really do pre-debate. Now, the thing about Trump is he'll look like there's nowhere he'd rather be than at that debate. And I think it's important for Biden.

I think Biden will. Like, you want to be the happy warrior. Like, there's no place I'd rather be than right here talking about my record, your record, the American people. So this can't look like a root canal. No, I mean, look, I think Trump wants to play authoritarian strongman who looks really tough. He says the word strongly where it doesn't make sense a million times every couple sentences. And I do think there's sort of an opportunity for Biden to paint Trump as an ineffective, weak president who's also confused. Like, I think he should turn a lot of the lies into confusion. Like, Trump's going to say, I protect people with pre-existing conditions. Biden's going to be like, do you even know that you're in court right now

trying to take away pre-existing conditions? Are you confused about what your own government's doing? Like, he, because Trump will try to make Biden look like, you know, he's having senior moments and he doesn't know where he is. He can do that to Trump, though. Make him seem weak. Weak, mock him in an appropriate way. That's what I'm saying. I'm not saying like a screaming match,

right? It's those moments of strength through you're confused, the mocking. Trump's never faced that. I mean, he's literally had two or three tough interviews in his entire first term. And those are some of the worst interviews any political figure's ever given. So imagine having an opponent who clearly has been in your head your entire first term, the person you feared facing, challenging you, mocking you, undercutting your arguments. I think it could be a really powerful... I think, listen, Trump is... I love what Philippe said. I mean, he's not a classic debater, but he's hard to prepare for. He just throws haymakers. But I think there's a chance you could get halfway in this debate. And it's clear Trump, who I think will enter the arena as I am so happy to be here, I finally have my chance to take on the addled, drug-infused Joe Biden. You get the sense that he's not having a good time. And that could be that could be really devastating for him. Well, we know, I mean, from experience that incumbent presidents don't usually

do quite well in the first debate, partly because they don't like being challenged because they haven't been used to being challenged for many years. And Trump is, you know, more in that category than almost any other incumbent president. Yeah. And I also think to your point about confusing also say, listen, I, you, you might even think that Mr. President, cause you live in this like weird world where in your own head and Fox and Breitbart, cause we know anybody that we're cared about in this election, you know, doesn't like those entities. Right. So this whole, like you live in your own little reality, this, or you're a successful businessman. You tell yourself when clearly you're a billion dollars in

debt, whatever the issue is, I think you're right about that, which is not, you know, policy distillation. This is very much a performance event more so than even the ones we were involved in. And it drove our boss crazy that they were a performance event before policy seminars. But this in particular, I think is going to be, nobody is going to vote against Joe Biden because they don't think he understands healthcare taxes or foreign policy. Like he's got that. He can reinforce that. Part of that is just less what he says than the energy and kind of the advocacy he brings to that. But I think a lot of this is the performance piece of this, which, you know, again, maybe that shouldn't be the way our debates are, but I think they are. And this one even more so.

We will see. David Plouffe, thank you so much for joining us. Everyone go listen to Campaign HQ and Battleground with Steve Schmidt. Excellent podcast, and thanks for coming on. And I don't know, a couple more days, a couple more weeks. Hang in there, man. Well, let's hope so. Imagine if we're counting votes through Thanksgiving. I mean, we're going to need round-the-clock support for you.

Yeah, it would peel me off a ceiling somewhere. All right, man. Thanks for doing this. Hang in there, brother. Thanks to Ploth for joining us today. Thanks to all of you who sent in some questions. And we will have the debate tomorrow night. We'll be on Group group thread Tuesday night.

Check it out. And then on Wednesday we will have a special pod save America with all four of us doing a debate recap for all. We're all still breathing

and we got the we got you know I hear we got the the creator of message box for that one. We do. Yes. Message box guru

Dan Pfeiffer will be in attendance on Wednesday. And then Dan and I will do our usual Thursday pod on Friday. So three pods this week. Lots of content. Talk to you guys later. Bye. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.

The executive producer is Michael Martinez. Our associate producer is Jordan Waller. It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is our sound engineer. Thanks to Tanya Sominator, Katie Long, Roman Papadimitriou, Quinn Lewis, Brian Semel, Caroline Reston, and Elisa Gutierrez for production support. And to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Nar Melkonian, Yale Freed, and Milo Kim, who film and upload these episodes as videos every week.