Pod Save America - The Biden-Trump Rematch Begins

Episode Date: March 6, 2024

Nikki Haley suspends her campaign and doesn’t endorse Trump. Adam Schiff finishes first in California’s primary, Colin Allred will face Ted Cruz in Texas and Ruben Gallego goes against Kari Lake in Arizona as Kristen Sinema announces she will not run for reelection. North Carolina Republicans nominate Holocaust denier Mark Robinson for Governor. And Joe Biden prepares for his State of the Union speech. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail] and include the name of the podcast.

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Jon Lovett. I'm Tommy Vitor. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Gang's all here. Here we are. Well, Dan's on Zoom. Sort'm Tommy Vitor. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. Gang's all here. Here we are. Well, Dan's on Zoom. Sort of.

Sort of. Tough. Tough hit on Dan. On today's show, Nikki Haley concedes to Trump but doesn't endorse. Dean Phillips concedes to Joe Biden and does endorse. Adam Schiff is headed to the Senate. North Carolina Republicans nominate a Holocaust denier for governor. And Joe Biden prepares for his biggest speech of the year.

But first, Super Tuesday told us what's been obvious for a very long time president joe biden and former president donald trump are headed for a november rematch that no one asked for it's happening guys it's happening it's at gird your loins we started a podcast eight years ago talking about donald trump eight years later here we are you know still running for president. I think we've slowed him down. I think we've slowed him down, though. I think there's not as much air in those tires.

All right. So on Super Tuesday, Biden won every contest but the caucuses in American Samoa. Talk about that soon. And has won every state and every delegate but 10. He's now just a few hundred delegates away from officially clinching the nomination. Trump won every Super Tuesday contest but 10. He's now just a few hundred delegates away from officially clinching the nomination. Trump won every Super Tuesday contest but Vermont and is also just a few hundred delegates away from clinching, which he will because he's now the only Republican candidate left in the race. Nikki Haley suspended her campaign this morning, but declined to endorse Trump in her concession speech.

Let's listen. I am filled with the gratitude for the outpouring of support we've received from all across our great country. But the time has now come to suspend my campaign. I said I wanted Americans to have their voices heard. I have done that. I have no regrets. In all likelihood, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee when our party convention meets in July. I congratulate him and wish him well. I wish anyone well who would be America's president. I have always been a conservative Republican and always supported the Republican nominee. But on this question, as she did on so many others, Margaret Thatcher provided

some good advice when she said, quote, Never just follow the crowd. Always make up your own mind. It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that. This is now his time for choosing. So, do we consider the boats burned? Is that the non-endorsement we were hoping for? What do we think? Love it? If you say, it is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party

and beyond it who do not support him, and I hope he does that. If you're saying, I hopeald trump earns everyone's vote what exactly is she hoping for because it sounds like she's hoping that he wins the presidency hoping that i guess he has a personality transplant yeah he he suddenly changes his his ways gonna build that big tent he's good yeah he's finally gonna change i yeah 70 77 years old she hopes she turns over a new leave the the thing that i feel like just i've seen a bunch of people talking about this speech and you know has she burned the ships or not will she endorse or will she won't it is truly amazing that

she has been running against donald trump for a year running hard for three months we have absolutely no idea what she thinks we don't know what she thinks we don't what she actually thinks. Sort of been the case for her entire political career. Dan? I'm not going to make a prediction whether she's going to endorse or not endorse. Coward. On the eight-year anniversary, we're going to bring predictions back into the podcast. Yes, exactly. Hillary's going to win. Continue. She's leaving herself the option to do it, but he's obviously not going to earn the votes of anyone. I think in his statement, his truth about this, he called her bird brain and said she did really poorly and then asked her supporters to vote for him. So I'm not sure.

It's a low bar she's setting. Yeah. Like I thought it was better than an endorsement. Sure. But not as good as a non endorsement where she took a few more shots at Trump. That's what I would say. Tommy, what did you think? Yeah. Listen, first of all, Maggie Thatcher, shout out right here. Good for her.

You know, look to me. She's a world of through and through at her core. She knows really how to appeal to the core. She knows the Republican Party. Yeah. It sounded to me like she was setting up a process for her to come back to the fold and endorse. She wants to make it bigger about her supporters and not herself because it's not about her. It's about the country, John. So I think she'll probably at some point pretend that Trump has changed or improved. Joe Biden will do something

that a bunch of establishment Republicans will arbitrarily decide is unforgivable. And they'll all come back to the fold. Give more people healthcare or something. Yeah, we'll almost certainly be calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. The thing that says around Trump's camp, yeah. It's also, I think, telling that as she was saying,

like, I hope Donald Trump does whatever he can to earn the votes of my supporters. He was putting out the statement he wanted to put out, dinging her, that he wrote before she spoke, but didn't get it out in time so that he could get a statement out saying, I hope she never fucking quits. I hate this woman.

And then the campaign puts it out and just puts a little note that says, just so you guys know, it was from before she started speaking. That's when he wrote it. But we didn't get it out in time, but we wanted to put it out anyway. I'm looking forward to the Unity event in Unity, New Hampshire. Yeah, her convention speech. Or maybe she'll do the Ted Cruz, vote your conscience at the convention, and then go ahead and vote for her. Who knows? Dan, can you talk about your message box takeaway from last night that

Haley's candidacy helps Biden in the general? Yeah, I think when you look back on this, Nikki Haley never had a shot to beat Donald Trump. But what happened is the Koch brothers spent almost $100 million to fund a sophisticated, persuadable voter ID program for Joe Biden. Right? All across. Thanks, Koch brothers. Like we always say here. There's only one left. There's one Koch brother.

Sorry, the Koch organization. Thanks, Kochs. Well, no, I do think the dead one is happy. I didn't know we're done with Koch. He was happy to be part of it. I mean, yeah, I can thank him. It's still his money. Is that the one who bought all the fake wine?

It's a great documentary. Anyway, continue. Sorry. So, I mean, basically, when you look at this, there's still his money. Is that the one who bought all the fake wine? It's a great documentary. Anyway, continue. Sorry. I mean, basically, when you look at this, there's been this little pushback over the last few days or so about this idea that Haley voters are a demonstration of weakness for Trump because in the New York Times-Siena poll, a near majority of her supporters voted for Biden in 2020. And so people are still like, so see,

Trump is never going to get those voters anyway, if they're telling exit pollsters they're not going to vote for Trump, because they never were. That's because a bunch of Democrats came into the primary. I think that's idiocy for two reasons. One, it's only half of her voters, but also the people that Biden needs are the people who voted for Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, and now don't know what they're going to do. These are the exact kind of Republican-leading independents who vote in Republican primaries. It's just a pure numbers game, right? Take Michigan, right? There were 300,000, almost 300,000 people who voted for Nikki Haley in that primary. And so let's just pretend that half of them were always going to vote for Biden. They just wanted to play in an open primary because they wanted to just pull one over on Trump. But then you still have 150,000 voters,

some portion of whom are open to Biden. And in the exit polling, we've seen upwards of 60% to three quarters of Nikki Haley voters who say they will not commit to voting for the nominee. So that is 150,000 voters in Michigan that Joe Biden can target. And you know what Joe Biden won Michigan by in 2020? 150,000 votes. So it's just, these are voters that the Biden folks can go get in his camp. They can track them down and they now have eight months to persuade them. And Donald Trump is helping him by saying things like non-MAGA people are not welcome in this party. So I just think this is, she has given a little bit of a roadmap and ID'd a whole bunch of voters that the Biden votes can go get. And I think that's been very helpful

to him, even though I'm sure that was not her intent. Dan, can I do a question about this? Because I was thinking about this when I was reading your message box, as I do every morning, as like almost like a prayer ritual. So you see, like in the exit polls, you see this sort of weakness that there are a ton of Haley voters, including Republican Haley voters, that just say they won't vote for Trump or they're open divide and just shows like a real weakness that there are a ton of Haley voters, including Republican Haley voters that just say they won't vote for Trump or they're open divide and just shows like a real weakness that Donald Trump has. And then you look at like the polls that just came in. And if you if you were wondering who has done a better job of consolidating their own party, it's actually Trump, right? Like Biden's in the 80s and Trump has in the 90s among Republicans. Is that like is that just the

difference between these two electorates? Is that the difference between people that like, how do you explain that difference? Yeah. How do you, how do you square in the New York times poll, like 48% of Haley voters saying they were Biden 2020 voters, but then Trump winning 96% of his 2020 vote, which is the high one, right? It's like 94 or 96, right? I'm talking New York Times. Yeah. So it's 48% of Haley supporters who say they voted for Biden, 31% who say they voted for Trump. And the rest are people who either declined to answer or most likely did not vote in 2020. So when you're dealing with a margin of error, that math actually works

out okay, that you have a couple couple percent of Trump's voters who have voted for Haley in the primary, who may be unwilling to vote for him in the general. And so those are the people you'll get. We're talking, everything's happening on the margins here, right? Trump has obviously done a better job of consolidating his overall base. Biden has done a better job of consolidating primary voters than Trump has. And you see that in the poll where they ask people if you voted in a primary, in the New York Times poll, if you voted in a primary and a midterm, then Biden actually was up by one point among that group of people. It's when you, the further you get out among Trump voters, the better he does. But the hardest core people are some,

or most, the most regular Republicans are ones he's struggling with. And those people that Joe Biden can go get. Look, in an election like this, you're trying to go get, if you could find 15,000 votes in Michigan of people who voted for Haley, who either didn't vote in 2020 or voted for Trump in 2020, that could be enough to win this race, right? So that's why I think it helps. Yeah, I think we don't know how many Haley voters supported Biden in 2020. We just like no polling. But one thing that keeps coming up and that has for like a year, a couple of years now, is there is about 30 percent of Republicans who say they don't like Donald Trump, believe that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, tell pollsters that he shouldn't be president if he's convicted.

So there's like there's like 30 percent of Republicans out there who are at least potentially persuadable. Right. I think that's what we've learned from both Haley's candidacy and everything that people have told pollsters for the last several years now. Right. And right now, if you look at the other polls about the general, two thirds of those voters are saying they're coming home. But a big chunk of those people are gettable. One thing before we move on from Haley, I just I have to point out that in that fun little period between results coming in and her dropping out where there was a bunch of reporting uh her spokeswoman sent a statement to politico saying that hayley was watching the results with staff and quote the mood is jubilant and i just love that because rarely do you see

bullshit uh printed quite that directly because you know clearly it was not jubilant when you're only winning vermont tommy i don't know what the fuck you're talking about they could have been jubilant that the campaign's over and they don't have to work hard anymore that's a very good also i take it back they were expecting to win zero contests and they won one so i'm sure they're excited we gave a little short shrift to vermont vermont the big vermont victory all right so the overwhelming majority of Republican voters got their preferred candidate for president, a criminal defendant facing 91 felony charges that include trying to overturn an election he lost in last night's victory speech. Trump dispensed his trademark optimism from the scene of one of his crimes at Mar-a-Lago. We're going to stop and we're going to close our borders. We're going to have to deport a lot of people, a lot of bad

people, because our countries can't live like this. Our cities, our cities are choking to death. Our states are dying. And frankly, our country is dying. And we're going to make America great again, greater than ever before. Thank you very much. Been a big night. Thank you very much. Thank you. How's that for a general election message? Our country is dying. Low energy. And I'd say I just found it so distasteful that CNN took the whole speech. Just kidding. Yeah, he's back to like the American carnage message.

It's very dark. Very dark. Very dark. And the low energy plus the dark. The darkness of the message was interesting to me. Yeah, it's fitting, really. At his rallies, he's like having a good time. He's a comedian.

He's saying crazy shit. It was he was very subdued last night. Yeah, not not the I'm sure the Iowa guy. Well, I'm sure it was like, hey, Iowa, you were gracious. New Hampshire, you were an asshole. Just try to be on message here. So he tried to be on message, which he's always he's always looking bored when he's on message. Yeah, that's true.

He's always looking bored when he's on message. Yeah, that's true. Did the primary results and exit polls from last night tell you guys anything else about Trump's strengths or weaknesses heading into the general? Dan, you had anything? Yeah, I think there's been a consistent story from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, which is there's a group of voters. Most of the men have voted for Haley that he struggles with. It's college-educated Republicans.

It's people in the suburbs. It's people who don't believe in the big lie, which is a problem for Trump nationally because the majority of voters don't believe the big lie. He's losing those voters by 60 points in some cases. And so there is this group of people, it's a 30% you identified, that has persisted through this. And even there are some who are voting from the primary who are indicating some reservations about it, particularly those convicted for a crime. So it's just, it is a story of a dominant performance among the MAGA base and some real weakness against non-MAGA voters. And we're not a MAGA majority country, so that's not great for him.

Yeah. We also just saw that there's a super PAC that was a pro-Haley super PAC that has rebranded as Haley voters for Biden. So hopefully they spend some money. Sort of seems like also making Trump's point. So give him one point there. I do think one, a couple of strengths that Donald Trump has going into the general, the entire Republican establishment is behind him, including we just found out this morning that Mitch McConnell has just decided to back him. Donald Trump is a challenger in an environment where last time an

incumbent president won reelection was 12 years ago because the country has been, you know, voters have been pretty upset. And so that's what Joe Biden's dealing with. But again, weaknesses, suburbs, moderates, Haley voters. And I think it's good to, you know, Donald Trump starts 40,000 voters in the hole. That's what he lost by in 2020. So he can't afford to lose a bunch of voters, even a couple Republican voters here and there. Yeah. I mean, but to your point about the sort of anti-incumbent sentiment, I did notice that 55% of California primary voters rated the economy negatively, including 66% of independents. So that's a big headwind for Joe Biden. There are, you know, 66% of California independents disapprove of Biden's handling of the job. Trump is beating Biden by eight points

when it comes to job approval with California independents. So again, that's just like one snapshot based on the California exit polls, but it shows the challenges of being an incumbent right now. Yeah. And other weaknesses for Trump. i think the uh all the felony charges should be witnesses uh he's just he's he is unpopular still he's like he's he's he's a little more popular than he has been but he's still a pretty unpopular guy um and of course his lack of discipline and penchant for saying crazy shit uh i think that's uh that's a weakness as well. So before we get to Biden and the general election strategy, let's run through some of the other notable results from Tuesday night. Adam Schiff is most likely headed to the U.S. Senate. He finished first in California's top two primary and will face Republican Steve Garvey in November,

though it shouldn't be much of a race because of California's voter registration. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee came in third and fourth with much less of the vote than the polls had suggested. Any thoughts on how Schiff was able to dominate this primary? Money. He had like $40 million in a state that's just absurdly expensive to run in to begin with. And they had so much money, the Schiff team, that they could spend like between $11 and $15 million boosting Steve Garvey, the Republican, who he will now run against, including running ads on Fox News. But then he also could run pro-Schiff ads. He could run anti-Katie Porter ads. And Schiff ended up doing more campaigning for Garvey than Garvey did for himself. I think he spent like $1.5

million. He barely did events. Schiff also had a bunch of institutional support, like Pelosi loves Adam Schiff. She helped him raise money. She elevated his profile in the House. Republicans gave Schiff an in-kind contribution when they censured him, which made him, you know, a star and on MSNBC. And, you know, I think Porter and Barbara Lee split the progressive vote. But as you said, even combining their vote tot millions and millions of dollars just to get people to know who you are, was a pretty tough, a pretty tough uphill climb for anyone who wasn't Schiff. And a chief Trump antagonist in a time where the most powerful motivating force for Democrats has been Donald Trump, right? That is what has gotten Democrats to the polls from 18 on every single election. And when you are the guy that just takes it to Trump all the time and is seen as taking it to Trump, then that's going to benefit you. In other down ballot news, the Senate map is just about set. Colin Allred will face Ted Cruz in Texas and it'll be Ruben Gallego versus Carrie Lake in Arizona because Kyrsten Sinema has announced her retirement.

We'll get there. We'll get there. We'll get there. In the North Carolina governor's race, Democrat Josh Stein will face Republican Mark Robinson. You haven't heard of him before. He's the lieutenant governor right now. He's a Hitler-quoting Holocaust denier who has called being gay a filthy abomination that marks the end of civilization and said that school shootings are karma for abortion. Trump has called Robinson Martin Luther King Jr. on steroids. Sounds like a nice guy. Well, should we do a little greatest hits of Mark Robinson oppo?

You got some others? Yeah, let's keep going. So I want to flag that first one, the Martin Luther King comparison, because Robinson likes to attack Martin Luther King Jr. and the civil rights movement. So he's actually criticizing him there, Trump. Robinson voiced support for passing, quote, a bill saying you can't have an abortion in North Carolina for any reason, called abortion, murder and genocide. He refused to commit to protecting IVF. He called public school teachers, quote, wicked people. You mentioned the Holocaust, calling it hogwash. You got really mad on Facebook about the movie Black Panther. Yeah, I was very upset about Black Panther. And said the character was, quote,

created by an agnostic Jew and put to film by satanic Marxists and only created to pull the shekels out of your schwarz pockets. Did I do that right? Yeah, well, it's an epithet for black people. So, yeah, it's, you know, Black Panther was a conspiracy by Jews to trick black people into, I guess, having a good time. The hogwash quote, the first part of that, because I saw the whole Facebook post,

it's from March of 2018. They spent a lot of time on Facebook in 2018. A lot of time. Wow. It's, quote, this foolishness about Hitler disarming millions of Jews and then marching them off to concentration camps is a bunch of hogwash.

That's the post. He also off to concentration camps is a bunch of hogwash. He also- That's the post. He also referred to- That is the post. Just in case you think libs are just exaggerating. Yeah, no. In context, these are all worse. He also referred to the students at Marjory Stone Douglas as spoiled, angry, know-it-all

children, silly, little, immature media prostitutes. That's a child prostitute. little immature media prostitutes. That's a child prostitute. And this one, it's, listen, it's been a very serious and terrible situation. But after the Boko Haram kidnappings

in 2014, he posted on Facebook, it's not funny, George Soros stole them girls. I can't, I'm sorry. God, Jesus Christ. The folks at the DGA wanted us to remind you to text

NC to 30201 to help Democratic governors win North Carolina. Yeah, that's important because here's where we stop laughing. Race is tied for Josh Stein. Josh Stein is the Democratic Attorney General in North Carolina. Dan, what do you think about this race? I fucking hope

Josh Stein can win because if not, we're in real trouble. Quite a setup for that. So get him those shekels i mean it is it is a um it's a situation in north carolina where mark robinson does have even though he's a fucking loony kook he has a uh lot of name id because he is lieutenant governor yeah this guy's already the lieutenant governor of north carolina he's already the lieutenant governor of North Carolina. He's not just walking in off of Facebook.

Now, Josh Stein has run statewide also, so he is, you know, he's a statewide figure as well as attorney general, but whew. Wait, isn't it cool to be a kook in North Carolina?

Wasn't that Outer Banks? The kooks in the... Who are you thinking of? The TV show, the Outer Banks? The Pogues were cool, my bad. Sorry, yeah.

Oh my God. I watched TV. Someone get a compilation of Tommy's dad jokes for New Year's. It's a reference, it's topical, it's timely. cool sorry yeah my god i watched someone get a compilation of tommy's dad jokes for um for for new year's it's a reference it's topical it's timely i didn't think it was bad it was on my show yes it's timely it's very time i always i love go for it anyway anyway gotta help josh stein everyone yes come on this is bad bad bad bad everyone thoughts on all red versus cruz i think it's tough for all red in a

presidential electorate environment but uh you know poll so far limited polling but polls so far show him somewhat close to cruz yeah look ted cruz absolutely sucks people hate his guts he motivates democrats in a way that very few other down ballot races will colin all red is a really good guy he's a super interesting bio, played in the NFL. He's from Texas, played college football there too. He's really smart and thoughtful and a compelling speaker and was great on this show in particular. So I don't know. He's someone we'd love to have in the Senate. Excited about it. And if you're great on this show, that's all it takes. Sky's the limit for you. You can't get to the Senate or the White House, but

there's a lot of other cool places you can get to. Like this show. Like the show. Yeah, I don't know. You know, look, Texas has been like Lucy with the football. I know. But you know what? This is America.

This is America. And it's a new day. It's a new day. And look, Beto couldn't do it. Where Beto walked, Colin can run. Dan, do you have some insight? Yes. I don't walked, Colin can run. Dan, do you have some insight? Yeah. Yes. I don't know if it's insight.

I think Colin Allred is basically a perfect candidate for Texas. He's a black, moderate football player. He has a great demeanor. He is someone who reaches out to people across the ideological spectrum. He can sort of elide some of the typical caricatures of Democrats. Is it a very hard race in Texas generally? Yes. Is it even harder in a presidential year with Donald Trump on the ballot? Absolutely. Does he have a shot? Sure. It's a long shot, but he has a shot. But there's also real value in supporting and funding his candidacy because the map is shifting in ways that are not great for Democrats. Texas is something we need to get

into our column before long. And every time we run a competitive, well-funded, well-organized race, we get ourselves a little bit closer to Charlie actually kicking that football. And so I think if people have money and they're looking for Senate candidate support, it is not the race that will likely deliver us the Senate. But building long-term, sustainable, progressive power, investing in Colin Albright is probably a good idea. Hey, who better to kick that football than a 6'1", 237 pound outside linebacker who ran a 4'7", 5'40".

Wow. Yeah. And played at Baylor. Do you have his combine stats in front of you? I googled it. Thank you. I did. He has it saved on his desktop.

I haven't tattooed him in a row. All right. Another state that's been shifting to Democrats, Arizona. he has it saved on his on his desk i haven't tattooed on my own all right another state that's been shifting to democrats arizona kirsten cinema is out don't let the door hit you where the good lord split you she uh i make dad jokes people that's not a dad joke that's just a great old saying that is a dad joke that is a dad joke so she's out she hadn't been raising a lot of money, so people kind of suspected she was out. Seems like she's retiring for good. Doesn't quite seem like she's ready to jump on the no labels ticket. I haven't heard that.

She wants to spend more time with her hedge fund, I think. Yeah, I think she's going to go do her marathons. She likes her marathons. Yeah, learn more about wine. Learn more about wine. So last two head-to-head polls in Arizona have Gallego up 7 and 10 on Cary Lake. Only two polls, you know, not super high quality polls, but not bad. Not bad.

What do you guys think? He's another really good candidate, I think. I mean, he's a former Marine. He talks like a normal human being. He's super thoughtful. He can connect with like your average voter. He's a combat veteran. I mean, I think the fact this is now a one-on-one race is really important. I think what he needs is money because, because Kyrsten Sinema has been kind of like parked in

this will she, won't she region, the DSCC and all the other party organizations haven't been able to go all in on Arizona. So they've been having to cobble together their own grassroots donor base. So they're a little behind just on raising, but at least they, they have this fundraising base of their own and now they need the DSCC to come come in and help them out yeah i mean look arizona has you know these this is a closely divided state but it's also a state that has rejected these fucking kooks and carrie lake if they ran she's the queen of the kooks she's the queen of the kooks and if they had run a more normal for sure old school type of republican who didn't believe in the election lie and wasn't just,

you know, harassing Ruben Gallego at the airport. Uh, maybe they'd have, maybe this would be, uh, maybe they'd have a better shot. Yeah. And much like Trump, she was telling McCain voters to, uh, fuck off. Um, so I bet, I suspect you'll see Gallego try to, um, reach out to a lot of those moderate and independent voters who like make up a big portion of the electorate in arizona um i noticed that he's uh he's you can you can sort of tell that he's been moderating a little bit over in the in the last several months but um look replacing cinema with gallego and keeping the senate means that we would have the votes to get rid of the filibuster, at least for reinstating

Roe v. Wade and passing the Voting Rights Act. It is huge if we hold the House and the presidency too. But like we've, we talk a lot about all the bad things that we could prevent from happening if Joe Biden wins again and Donald Trump doesn't. But this is a good thing, a really good thing, Voting Rights Act and abortion rights nationwide. Yeah, I think these were like taking just a second on just the kind of like cynical, you know, no labels ask bipartisanship of Kyrsten Sinema and the things she decided she was going to draw a line on. Because, you know, in her in her announcement video, she talks about bipartisan legislation that would have passed if she didn't exist. But then you look at the places where she said, I'm going to use my power to demonstrate

what it means to me to be bipartisan. That was where she decided to save the filibuster. That is where she decided to stop the Biden administration from negotiating for prescription drugs. That is where she decided to protect things like the carried interest loophole. And I think it is a very good thing that she discovered that there was no constituency for defining bipartisan as just stopping a few progressive, but also extremely popular bipartisan policies. One quick thing on Carrie Lake is she's been trying to smooth over her

MAGA craziness. And she was all in with Trump on attacking the rhinos, attacking the McCain family. Right. Like it's MAGA only for her. She's been trying to walk that back. Megan McCain tweeted the other day about Carrie Lake trying to walk back these attacks on her dad. And her tweet ended, no peace, bitch. We see you for who you are and are repulsed by it. And Carrie Lake wrote back this novel in response. It was like, I'd love nothing more than to buy you a beer, a coffee or a lunch and pick your brain about how we can work together. So she is full on groveling and trying to, you know, clean up her past. We'll see if it works, but I hope not. All right, let's talk about Joe Biden, who won every Super Tuesday primary but American Samoa, which he lost to 52-year-old Jason Palmer by 51 to 40. Not percentages, votes. All right, raise your hand here. Who knew the name Jason Palmer? Who had heard the name Jason Palmer before last night?

Any of you guys? Not even. I think he texted me for donations, but I can't tell because everybody's texting me. Dan, what about you? Did you ever hear of Jason Palmer? Learn something new every day. Can I tell you my funny Jason Palmer thing from this morning? So I like you.

I Googled him. I was like, who is this dude? Politico had done sort of a profile video of him about a month ago. His entire case is like, I'm 52. I'm young. Joe Biden is old. of him about a month ago. His entire case is like, I'm 52, I'm young, Joe Biden is old. The Politico video included a counterpoint from a spokesperson to say it's okay to be old from Dianne Feinstein's former press guy, who's like, actually, no, age doesn't matter.

Hey, I get some backup here. Which I just thought was pretty amazing. Continue, though. You mentioned that his whole thing was just campaigning as a younger Joe Biden, but the same thing. Also, Dean Phillips' whole thing. And Jason Palmer will end up with more delegates than Dean Phillips, who did suspend his campaign today. Though Phillips did it in a pretty classy way. He endorsed Joe Biden, said he's going to campaign for him, said he's a good and decent man. Dean Phillips also had quite a funny tweet last night he said uh congratulations to joe

biden uncommitted marion williamson and nikki haley for demonstrating more appeal to democratic party loyalists than me and then and then after jason palmer won he replied to that tweet and said oh and jason palmer that's good good for dean phillips good for dean phillips all's well that ends well there okay uh the only nominal opposition to to Biden materialized last night in the uncommitted vote, again, which received 19% in Minnesota, 13% in North Carolina, and 8% in Colorado. Biden campaign is not concerned. They released a memo this morning saying they are well-prepared and well-positioned to beat Trump, who they called, quote, cash-strapped and beleaguered by an extreme agenda that makes him unpopular with the voters he needs to win. The pro Biden groups and super PACs alone have promised to spend 700 million dollars to defeat Trump with an ad campaign that will start immediately. Just as President Biden prepares to deliver the State of the Union address tomorrow night.

What do you guys make of the uncommitted vote? I mean, look, I'm biased here because I care a lot about Gaza, but I'm concerned. I don't think Biden is going to lose Minnesota. That's not my fear. But I think there's a warning sign here. I think we saw it in Michigan. We saw in Minnesota. Those states have large Arab-American, Muslim- American populations. But I think it's wrong to think that this is just an issue with that cohort of voters. I think young voters are extremely frustrated about the administration's Gaza policies. The uncommitted vote was highest in areas with the most young voters. You're seeing protesters at like every single Biden campaign event. You're seeing Wall Street Journal polls that shows concern about Gaza policy is growing.

And so I just think like the death toll is already staggering, but listeners should know that this will be nothing if there is a Gaza-wide famine, if there's a massive cholera outbreak or some other disease, if there's a major ground invasion into Rafah where 1.4 million people are now living mostly in tents and shelters. So I know the Biden team is pushing hard for a six-week ceasefire, but they need to dial up the public pressure, I think, state more clearly where they stand. Because you saw Kamala Harris talk about the administration's policy that they've been talking about in other places and get cheered because she forcefully called for a ceasefire, whereas other Biden officials have been booed for kind of talking

about the same thing, but in a less, you know, declaratory way and sounding like they're observing the events versus trying to shape them. I will say, too, that if you read some of the interviews with people who voted uncommitted, it's not just that they're Arab American or Muslim or young progressives. Some of these, one person was quoted saying like, I'm really upset about Gaza. I'm also mad about inflation and the border being out of control and too many migrants coming in. So it's, it's like a, it's just, it's become a vehicle for a protest about Gaza, but also a host of other issues that people are upset with.

They got 11 delegates. And I, look, I, and I agree with everything that Tommy is saying, and it, but I do think it's even, it is deeper than that, which is if you ask people how they feel about a Biden Trump rematch, 48% say they're negative about it. 42 are depressed about it. And that is more true of Democrats than it is Republicans. And like, you can like slice the numbers any way you want. You can point to the ways in which you have strength. That is a huge problem. It is a huge problem that Democrats on the whole find that find the prospect of this rematch, uh, depressing. Yeah. I will, I will say like on the whole, when you look at the uncommitted vote and you compare it to the uncommitted vote against Barack Obama in 2012 through a host of states, it looks favorable compared to that. They're similar, the margins and that.

Just Gaza's not going away. But also, we're rerunning an election where last time Joe Biden only won by 40,000 votes. Dan, what did you think? Look, I agree with what you said. You got to put these things in context. And historically, it may not look as bad. But the primary results to date, I think, have told an overly optimistic story about Joe Biden's coalition. We see this in the polls. He is struggling much more than Donald Trump to rebuild his 2020 coalition. And the way the Michigan results were spun because expectations were so high, where I think you and Mehdi talked

about it last week, but 100,000 votes, maybe it's not the percent number that people thought, but 100,000 votes is a lot of votes in Michigan. I really hope we're not talking about Minnesota as the battleground state in a few months, because if we are, we got problems. If Minnesota is in trouble, we are in real trouble in Wisconsin, right? But I think a lot of people who have taken solace in some of the primary results in giving them a permission to dismiss the polls, and what I think is the political reality of the work Joe Biden has to do and can do, hopefully this is a reminder that that work exists and has to be done.

It's not just Gaza. It's over a whole bunch of things. But Gaza is a very particular, specific challenge that has to be addressed. Yeah, I heard on MSNBC last night, someone say the polls are all wrong. And the proof of that is these exit polls saying that people, people saying, telling the exit pollsters that they wouldn't vote for Donald Trump in the general. That is actually not proof that the polls are wrong because also exit polls are also polls. And we just went through exactly what's going on with the Haley

voters. We don't know. There's some portion of them that are gettable for Biden, but we don't know beyond that. Dan, what's your take on the memo that the Biden campaign put out this morning and sort of the ad campaign starting now? I think the memo is the best, most realistic case they have put out for why they have optimism for this election that does not show up in the polls, right? That Biden has some structural advantages. Donald Trump has some weaknesses. We talked about them here. And I think it's the case that I think that has to be made to activists and donors about why Biden can win. There's a lot of like, Trump can't win. People care about democracy. They'd never elect this guy that's all just like voodoo wishful thinking. And this is like the real, this is, I mean, this is how a campaign

who is serious and has a plan to go win. This is how they lay out that plan. And it's a very credible case, right? It is why this election will undoubtedly be closer than what the margins we see like in this New York Times poll, right? Is that Biden has these financial advantages, structural advantages. Donald Trump has weaknesses that can be exploited that just haven't been exploited yet. What do you guys think? Yeah, I agree with that. What I thought when reading it is like,

you know, we are, that theory totally makes sense to me. I hope and believe it will be true. The polls do not reflect it yet. And what I think when I see this is just just OK, you have this huge financial advantage. The Republican Party is just not as well organized. OK, when do we start seeing the results of an ad campaign like in the polls? When can we start to say, OK, the Biden campaign's theory and their confidence or their performance of confidence, which is what they should be doing, is now bearing out and showing that their theory of the case now towards naysayers who, by the way, were wrong about Biden a bunch of times in the past are wrong about Biden again. Yeah, I mean, they said they pointed out

that 10 percent of the electorate is undecided, that those supporters like Biden's policies and accomplishments. They just don't necessarily know about them. Going to Super Tuesday, 31 percent of the electorate wasn't sure if Trump would be the nominee. So people are probably thinking about the race differently now, or at least they will be soon. So yeah, look, there's time here. I do think the State of the Union will be a big moment. Yeah. To your point, Leavitt, about the ad campaign, I think it is really good that they are starting early. There were some comparisons made to Obama in 2012, starting in in may of 2012 i believe unleashing like an ad campaign to define mitt romney which was quite successful and so that's

great that it's even earlier than that i think the only difference that's a challenge for the biden folks is you know our goal was to define romney for people who either didn't know him or remembered him as a moderate governor of mass, their goal is going to be much tougher because Donald Trump is well-defined in the minds of voters. And so I think that it's not just negative ads that I bet they'll run, but contrast ads, right? And so it's what Trump means for you, what Biden means for you, what the difference is. I think that's going to be more important than just remember this crazy thing that Donald Trump said. I do think that's like, yes, I think it's voters have a obviously

know who Donald Trump is. But if you look at these polls, their memories are fuzzy. And it is about what parts of Donald Trump are salient to people. And as they point out in the memo, a third of people going into Super Tuesday still didn't believe that Donald Trump was going to be the nominee. And what what is not perspective, imaginary past gauzy Trump going to be like in people's minds, but the real actual menace and threat of Trump as they define him. It's not just that we had it much easier in 2012 because Romney was largely undefined. Also, people watched TV in 2012, right? A lot of that ad campaign that started in May of 2012 was a very specific cable television

buy on programming, targeting women, informing them that Mitt Romney, who many of them thought was moderate if they knew anything at all, wanted to defund Planned Parenthood. So you could reach a shitload of people in a very targeted way in 2012. That is much, much more challenging now. And it's virtually impossible, other than it's during sporting events, to reach people under the age of 45 on linear television, right? Which is where a lot of that money will be spent. So there is a big challenge there,

but that's the advantage of having all of this money. And while there's a lot of stuff that's happening for political advertising on connected TVs, a lot of places you can't buy ads. You cannot buy political ads on Netflix for people who have the ad tier on Netflix. And so it won't just be ads, but ads will at least provide some background noise for this. And coincidentally, the Biden campaign is struggling with voters under 45. Yeah. Well, also, interestingly, they're probably gonna have to run ads with the same exact message because a lot of voters, I know this will be shocking to listeners of the show, don't understand the depth of Trump's opposition to abortion access and what he did to lead to Dobbs being overturned. Yeah, that'll be a huge lead to the Dobbs ruling.

That is Axios reports that the campaign's new strategy is to, quote, go for Trump's jugular. They said, quote, Biden has told friends he thinks Trump is wobbly, both intellectually and emotionally, and will go haywire in public if Biden keeps hitting him. What do you guys think of that strategy? I like it. I like triggering him on issues and contrasts. But I hope it's you pick issues and contrasts that like work to Biden's benefit. Yeah. Look, I think it's already working. It's already happening. Like the fact that Trump is going on to be like, actually, I confused Nikki Haley and and and Nancy Pelosi on purpose. I was doing it on purpose. It is already getting to him. So I like that.

There's value in it. It is basically like the Lincoln Project theory of the case from the last cycle, right? Remember, they would run ads like just in the Palm Beach area. I'd be like, Donald, they're talking about you. And it's like him tweeting on the toilet as the image, you know, right? So this is a strategy that I support and I'd like to see implemented, but is not novel per se. Dan? Yeah, I think if there's opportunities to see implemented, but is not novel per se. Dan?

Yeah. I think if there's opportunities to do that, they should do it. Biden and his team like to call Trump a loser. They've been doing that. Biden did it in his democracy speech on multiple occasions. He did it in that South Carolina political speech he did right before the primary. So we should do that. But I actually think that's not what their strategy is going to be. I think that's something you tell Axios. In the statement, we did that. We did it on time because people are like, Biden's got to fight back. He's got to be punished. If you give a leak to Axios about your political strategy, you are saying, I really want to tell my donors what I'm going to do so they'll write me checks. And I think they will do some of that. I think there's that New York Times story where it talks about Biden really wants to do those TikTok videos where he is

holding an iPad and responding to crazy things Trump says. The dances? Yes. Yes, really wants to do those TikTok videos where he is holding an iPad and responding to crazy things Trump says. The dances? Yes. Yes, he wants to do the dances. Biden's out there being like, bring me my TikTok. Bring me the TikTok. Get ready with me. Get ready with me while I go to Ukraine again. Yeah. But in the statement they put out last night, which I think is the, in my opinion, at least the best distillation of a message for this race. Here's what Biden said. Tonight's results leave the American people with a clear choice. Are we going to keep moving forward or will we allow Donald Trump to drag us backwards into the chaos, division, and darkness that

defined his time in office? Right? Like that is ultimately, and I think you get to that message by without having to make Donald Trump glitch on television every other day. But he'll probably do that on his own. Yeah, that's right. The glitching is the chaos. The glitching is good. The glitching. Right.

The glitching is the chaos. Not like a glitch, yeah. I just want them to, and I think Loser does this, but if you're going to trigger him, you got to trigger him on issues that work for you. Because if we have like a news cycle of fights about some crazy thing Donald Trump said that we know doesn't matter to voters as much. We're just sort of wasting time. So I think like on election denialism, on abortion, like there are these issues that we know are weaknesses for Donald Trump that I imagine that if they're going to trigger him, they would do it on that. I agree with that too. But if you look at the

polls, the polls show that like you ask people like, do you think Joe Biden is mentally fit or Trump is mentally fit, physically fit, physically fit. There's a group that says Biden's fit. There's a group that say Trump is fit. There's a group that says neither is fit. We may struggle to get the Biden number up, but we can get that both are unfit number up, too. You know, I don't hate that. I think the poll. I think the pollster should ask the question, is Trump morally fit?

Oh, yeah. Well, he was. Biden was doing better in the New York Times poll on who has the temperament and character to be president. He was winning on that one. And that's been the case in a couple polls now. What do you guys want to hear from Biden in the big State of the Union tomorrow night? I got one for you. Okay.

From Kentucky to Kiev, we're rebuilding bridges and our alliances. Well, you don't need to rebuild alliances in Kentucky. To Kiev, motherfucker. What about his friend Mitch McConnellconnell well maybe they'll go do another bridge event together oh god he's gonna say something nice about mitch mcconnell in the state of the union yeah people aren't gonna like it um so uh you know john you made the point about what's motivating democrats and there were two numbers we talked about the polling last week but there was two that jumped out at me about the State of the Union. You know, you had mentioned that like that, that more people think Trump has a vision for the country.

But actually, 50 percent of voters think think Joe Biden has a vision for the country. But if you ask people who's fighting for people like you, Trump is beating Biden. Trump's it's 48 to 52 for Biden. It's 42 to 58. And then if you ask people, what is the 2024 election about? Is it about hope for what might happen or is it about fear of what might happen for Biden, it's 42 to 58. And then if you ask people, what is the 2024 election about? Is it about hope for what might happen? Or is it about fear of what might happen? For Biden voters, it's 65, 35% fear, right? And I think that that is a legitimate place for Democrats to be. We are talking about the end of democracy. We're talking about the end of basic human rights. But I do think this is a speech to say, hey, we are going to do everything we can to protect basic rights. We're gonna do everything we can to protect democracy. But here's what we can do think this is a speech to say, hey, we are going to do everything we can to protect basic rights. We're going to do everything we can

to protect democracy, but here's what we can do with this democracy. Here are the things that we can achieve if we are able to protect this democracy, because I do think that's the third piece. You know, he's done this big abortion speech. He did that great January 6th speech, and now it's okay.

If we're protecting basic rights, that's stopping something bad. We're defending democracy, that's stopping something bad. What are we going to do? Dan? First, I have a question for you guys.

Do you think he should make an age joke? Look, I've said this quite a few times now. I think from the scene from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory where Gene Wilder... That's a big ass joke.

He trips. It looks like he's going to trip and then does a somersault and he's up on his feet. You didn't see the other takes. You didn't see the other takes. You didn't see the other takes. He didn't do that live. He's got one shot.

Let's just do it. Do you want to be president or no? I'd vote yes, Dan. Okay. Yeah, I think so too. That's a good one. Other than that question, I have, I think, a different take than Lovett on this. Yes. What I kind of hope for Biden on Thursday night is that he talks to the American people sort of where they are. I think one of the problems that we... This is less things that

come out of Joe Biden's mouth, so maybe I shouldn't worry about it, but you heard a lot from other Democrats and members of Congress. It's like, Joe Biden has passed more legislation in three years than any president's passed in 16 years. Greatest president since FDR. This is the greatest economy since the post-World War II boom. And those things may all be technically true in many ways. And Joe Biden has been a great president. But this is not something you can sell to voters in this political environment, right?

They don't know any of the things you did. They don't know. They're not happy with the way things are. They don't feel. They're not happy with the way things are. They don't feel good about the economy. And so we think there is just a lowering of the rhetoric. And I took this from the statement they put out last night, which is Joe Biden inherited an absolute shit show that Donald Trump helped create. People will not believe that Donald Trump is fully responsible for COVID, but he did put us in a worse position than we should be in. Worked hard, worked in a bipartisan way to make real progress. Here's where we are today. Here is what I want to do. But more

importantly, here's what the Republicans will, and Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans will take away from you. Because I think if people are so cynical right now, it's very hard to convince them that we're going to pass a bunch of really big things. Those things will be in the speech, of course, but I think more emphasis on the things Republicans will take away, your rights, your freedoms, birth control, IVF, your healthcare, right? And just like loss aversion, I think is going to be a very powerful message here. And I think just, there's just a lowering of the rhetoric to sort of be right where people are. And the democracy stuff is very true. It's very important, but you know, Axe, our friend David Oxenworth said something on CNN last night that I thought was very, very

apt for Biden's speech, which is if there's a family sitting on the dinner table talking about the future of democracy, they probably weren't worried about how much their dinner cost. And so if you want to get to the democracy stuff, you have to get to the economic stuff first. And so I hope we sort of see that tomorrow night. Yeah. Inflation is down, but the effects of inflation and the lingering memories of inflation and the high prices are still around, and you've got to acknowledge that. And like you said, I think Biden has been better at that than some of the broader democratic universe of surrogates. But, Dan, you sent me this um blueprint polling memo um which is great because they they asked uh people's top concerns about a trump second term and then top concerns about a biden

second term top trump concerns abuses of power trump would abuse the presidency to take revenge on his political rivals. Breaking the law. Ignoring military leaders and acting in dangerous ways that threaten national security. And then abortion. What do we do to abortion? And then policies that favor tax cheats and rich people. So you do get a little bit of, you get the economy stuff. Yeah.

But you, and we talk about democracy as if it's like all or nothing. I think it's the way it's framed. When you talk about democracy just as like, we must save democracy, it might sound a little hyperbolic to people who don't necessarily think that democracy is under attack. I know that's a lot of people, believe us. When you drill down on exactly what he's going to do, extremely unpopular for people. Now, you can't do that in the State of the Union because he's not going to talk about Trump abusing his power and say, well, and that.

But as the campaign goes forward, it's a good thing to keep in mind. Just to the point about how a lot of Americans consume this, working class in this blueprint poll, which is I think very, very useful, working class voters, people who make under 60,000, here are the top three concerns about Trump. And this is a group that Trump is winning by 3% in this poll. Number one, Trump will let rich tax cheats off the hook. Two, Trump will cut social security and Medicare. Three, Trump will cut rich tax cheats off the hook two Trump will cut social security and medicare three Trump would cut taxes for the rich but not working in middle-class families those are the top three concerns for people who whose economic and financial security is at the forefront of their life and those are the people in that New York Times Santa poll that Biden is

is struggling with the most people who make who make less money I have a feeling we will hear that contrast in full. Yeah. I will also say last year, State of the Union, I thought was like a really great moment for Joe Biden. And I think it was a great moment because I think he had a economic message. It was a great moment because he was energetic. He was feisty and he mixed it up. Repartee. He mixed it up with the Republicans in the room. And look, there's never been a moment in joe biden's life than in which it was more important that he seemed like vigorous and energetic and honest fucking shit maybe more important than i think so don't you agree with that yeah i also by the way here's the joke no no i do think this

oh come on but the uh i will say i think the age joke is going to be about, it'll be about Mitch McConnell. We've known each other for, I've been working with, I've been working with McConnell for 200 years. My intern. That's my prediction. That's a prediction.

You send that in. There's still time. We got a day. Oh yeah. I'm going to be like, yeah, I'll be like, the movie Tomorrow Never Dies.

I'm going to make the news. From Scranton, his sister wrote, we're rebuilding the steel industry. Oh my, you're still going on that. Iron Dome. Oh my God.

Iron Dome. Iron Dome. Iron Dome. We love the Iron Dome system. Speaking of the State of the Union, we'll be streaming the speech and doing a group thread in two places on our Friends of the Pod Discord

and on our YouTube page. The difference is that on the Discord you'll be able to submit questions for us in the main chat. So if you haven't already, head to cricket.com slash friends

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And here's our promise. We're not going to have you waste your money or waste your time. We're going to tell you where you can get the most bang for your buck and where your volunteering is going to have the most effect. And to Dan's earlier point about how the media environment is broken and it's really, really hard to reach people these days. And the Biden campaign is going to be doing all it can. There's only so much that we can control about what the Biden campaign does or what Joe Biden does. But guess what? We all have agency here. We're all messengers. We all know people.

And, you know, part of our job in the next eight months is to help turn those poll numbers around. And every time we ask, like, oh, what's the Biden campaign going to do to turn the poll numbers around. And every time we ask like, oh, what's the Biden campaign going to do to pull to turn the poll numbers around? Well, that that question should be directed at all of us, too, because this is this is this is all of our democracy. If you're not enthusiastic about these two options in 2024, wait till 2028, where there's one option and a guy outside the voting booth with a rubber truncheon. What does he have a rubber what? Truncheon. Hitting you. Also, we promise not to text you

photos of ourselves with alarmist copy at the end of every quarter. I mean, I'm not going to send those to you. No promises to you. Friend. All right, everyone. Our fundraising is underwhelming. So tomorrow night, State of the Union, Dan and I, we're staying up late.

We're going to do a post-so-to record. So, yeah. I'm jumping on with the WOD squad. Please do. Oh, look at you. Subscribe to WODaday. Lovett's going to be doing a show. I'll be doing my show. I hope they give Biden and me the same

fucking drug right before we go out there. Someone get us up. Who's they here? I don't know. They. The same people Mark Roberts is talking about. The same people that made Black Panther. We're going to cut it here. Goodbye, everyone.

You know. Same people that made Black Panther. All right, we're going to cut it here. We're going to cut it here. Goodbye, everyone. Goodbye. Bye. If you want to get ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and more,

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