Pod Save America - "The Most Dangerous Candidate of 2022?"

Episode Date: May 19, 2022

Voters select Democratic and Republican nominees in North Carolina, Oregon, Kentucky, Idaho, and Pennsylvania in the biggest set of midterm primaries yet, and North Carolina Senate candidate Cheri Beasley joins to talk about her race against Trump-backed Ted Budd.Visit Cheribeasley.com to support her campaign and help flip North Carolina.   For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail] and include the name of the podcast. 

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. On today's show, the winners of Tuesday's primaries range from new progressive challengers to some of the most extreme Republicans yet. And later, we talk to one of the night's big winners, Democrat Sherry Beasley, the former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, who will be running for Senate against MAGA Republican Ted Budd in November. And speaking of candidates in big races, next Tuesday on Pod Save America, we will be joined by Los Angeles mayoral candidate and longtime California Congresswoman Karen Bass

right here in studio. And if you live in California, this Monday is the deadline to register or update your registration online and still have your primary day ballot mailed to you. But just in case you forget, no worries. California also has same-day in-person registration. You can find out more at votesaveamerica.com slash California. Also, check out this week's Pod Save the World, where Tommy's joined by Palestinian writer and journalist Jalal Abu Qadr to discuss the killing of beloved Palestinian-American reporter Shireen Abu Akleh

and the violence he witnessed by Israeli police at Shireen's funeral. Dan, I believe there's also a brand new Political Experts React out this week. Who do you got? Well, John, I'm so glad you brought that up. Yes, we have a new episode of Political Experts React. We are breaking down midterm ads that went viral with Crooked Media's own chief content officer, Tanya Sominator. Yes, I know. Amazing.

You got Tanya again. Hardest booking we've had. We nailed her down. We got it. And we look at ads from Dr. Oz awkwardly holding a gun, a really interesting and I think successful piece of viral content from Midas Touch and some really MAGA Michael Bay vibe ads from Ohio congressional candidates. So check it out. Go over to YouTube dot com slash Crooked Media. Watch the video and obviously smash that subscribe button. If you haven't watched Political Exper react uh yet you are missing out because dan pfeiffer is a youtube sensation it is it is one of our more popular most one of our

most popular video products not one of media not one of i i am read my writer it is not i'm thinking i'm thinking of doing an offline episode soon on why dan pfeiffer is the most popular youtube star of his generation well that would that would be a very short episode because i think it's self-evident but here's here's what you need to know a political expert jack if you watch three episodes and you smash the subscribe button you become a political expert so that is well that's it that's it and maybe maybe you get a free copy of Battling the Big Lie. No, I just did it that way. Hey, are you doing a bulk buy of my book? I'm paying for this.

Yes. I will buy you. If times are tough, inflation is high, and you want a copy of Battling the Big Lie, reach out to Jon Favreau on Twitter. He will buy you one if you can prove you watch Political Experts React. There we go. I'm just trying to promote all your content. We need the help we can get john we are in the final stretch here all right let's get to the news tuesday was the biggest set of midterm primaries yet with voters selecting democratic and republican nominees in north carolina oregon kentucky idaho

and pennsylvania the perennial swing state which featured the most consequential races of the evening we're going to talk about all the results, but let's start with the race for Pennsylvania governor. Where Attorney General Josh Shapiro won the Democratic nomination after running unopposed and winning his last two statewide campaigns by convincing margins in 2016 and 2020, he will face one of the most extreme candidates to ever run for governor in America, State Senator Doug Mastriano, who wanted to throw out the votes of millions of Pennsylvanians in 2020, helped organize the January 6th rally in D.C. and was caught on video breaching the barricades set up by the Capitol Police. Dan, how did Mastriano beat a crowded Republican field and why should we lose sleep over this

particular election? Well, I think there are two reasons he won. The first one is perhaps did Mastriano beat a crowded Republican field? And why should we lose sleep over this particular election? Well, I think there are two reasons he won. The first one is perhaps the most concerning, which is that there is a very strong, very clear plurality in the Republican primary electorate for the most aggressive, the most pugilistic, ethno-nationalist, authoritarian, big lie believer they can find. That is what the Republican primary electorate wants. They also have a very good bullshit detector for who says it and who believes it, and Mastroianno absolutely clearly believes it. And they are willing to put aside sanity, corruption, electability, anything else for the person that they think will, much like Donald Trump in 2016, stand up against the thing they fear most, which is the idea that their version of America they really believe, whether they are true, adopt other parts of sort of this Christian nationalist ethos that Mastriano has, they will take that person. The other reason is more tactical and I think leads to a different conversation, which is Josh Shapiro's campaign identified Mastriano as the candidate they would most like to run against.

Mastriano did not have a ton of money at the outset, spent very little money on paid media and mail. So Mastriano's campaign ran about $800,000 of ads in mail, attacking Mastriano as the candidate most like Trump, the biggest Trump supporter, the one Trump wanted most, which was free advertising for Mastriano and helped lift him in the primary. Is that the only reason he won? Is that the main reason he won? It's impossible to say, but it certainly was a contributing factor that

Josh Shapiro's campaign inserted themselves in that primary to help select their opponent. I saw this. Someone asked Josh Shapiro's campaign about this, and they said that by the time they ran those ads, it was clear Mastroianano was ahead in the polls. And what they were trying to do was start the general election early to remind people as early as possible and start educating people as early as possible about how extreme Mastriano is. And the other thing is, of course, he did get that, you know, they said he's most like Trump. He's the one who got the Trump endorsement.

He got it late. He got it late. Yeah. Like, given what Mastroianno won by and just how terrible the other candidates in the field were, it's possible he, and perhaps even probable, he would have won absent that. But it did create this, like, news cycle that very much helped Mastroianno, which is a bunch of people see ads saying he's pro-Trump. Then he's rising in the polls. he's pro-Trump. Then he's rising in the polls. Republicans start panicking about it, which becomes when the Republican establishment says this candidate is unelectable or too MAGA-like or too Trump-like, that actually becomes like that reinforces their bona fides with the MAGA base. And so whether it's the reason or not, I do not know, but it's part of the story of why he won, for sure. But this guy is scary. I realize there's a lot of hyperbole out there.

This guy, he fits all of the most dire warnings about him. He is an extreme Christian nationalist who has said that he believes God is using him to change history. That is what Doug Mastriano said. If he becomes governor, the 13 million Americans who live in Pennsylvania do not get to choose the president in 2024. Doug Mastriano gets to choose the president in 2024. He was bragging just today about how if he gets elected,

he gets to decertify election machines. He gets to appoint a secretary of state that will be compliant to do whatever he wants. If Donald Trump runs and doesn't win in 2024, doesn't win fairly in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano will just overturn the election in that state. He will push the legislature to appoint their own series of Trump electors. And so he gets to choose the president in 2024. their own series of Trump electors. And so he gets to choose the president in 2024. Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes are off the table if Doug Mastriano wins in 2022.

That's how serious it is. If democracy is not your issue, Doug Mastriano becomes governor. You're one of the tens of thousands of women who have a pregnancy with complications that may threaten your life. The state of Pennsylvania will condemn you to death because of Doug Mastriano, because he thinks that you should die because he wants to criminalize all abortion

with no exception for rape, incest, or the health or life of the mother. Again, he says this is his sincere religious belief. He thinks it's okay to prevent gay couples from adopting a child. He wants to mandate the teaching of the Bible in public schools. He's attended QAnon events. He's attended events held by a religious cult that believes, quote, they have been tasked with battling real world demons who control global leaders. This is the fucking guy that Republicans have nominated in the state of Pennsylvania. Endorsed by the leader of their party, Donald J. Trump. Republican Mar-a-Lago.

I mean, again, just to get a sense of how extreme this guy is, the Republican Governors Association, not a bunch of libs over in the Republican Governors Association, they released a very tepid statement about Mastriano's win right after he clinched the nomination. And the only thing that the statement really said was, quote, Republican voters have chosen him. That's all they can say about him. Some Republican officials in Pennsylvania have told reporters that they might endorse Shapiro,

who most political analysts now say is the slight favorite in the governor's race, even though the Senate race, which we're going to talk about in a second, is rated as a toss up because the political environment is so tough for Democrats. But because Mastriano is so extreme, this race is rated as lean Democrat. What do you think, Dan? Does Shapiro have the slight edge here? And should he be running a race where he's trying to pick off Republicans? Well, first, I want to say, let's be very clear about the Republican Governors Association. This is not about the fact that they think Doug Mastriano is dangerous. They just think he's not necessarily electable, and they don't want to waste money on an unelectable candidate.

So what they're going to do is they're going to wait, and they're going to look at the polls. And if the polls are close, and they think they have a shot, they will 100% lock solid guarantee invest in that race. It's just like every Republican with Trump when they were like, in 2016, we're just going to stand back. After the Access Hollywood tape, we're not going to endorse him. And then once they thought it was close, they got behind him again. So they're not getting any Profiles in Courage award for that tepid statement. And I think the same thing is going to be gone for a bunch of Republican elected officials in Pennsylvania. We should not presume that they're going to do the right thing here unless it becomes patently obvious that Mastroianno can't win. If he can win, they're going to be behind him.

Now, that is the most important thing to know here is I do think it is true that Shapiro has a slight edge, for sure. He's a good candidate. Mastroianno was not a good candidate. Because of Mastroianno's incredibly extreme stances, he has a larger set of the electorate that's available to him. Mastroianno is the kind of candidate who can push some of the Republicans and independents who supported Biden but are thinking about a Republican back into this camp. But we should be clear that Mastroianno can win this race.

Shapiro is at best a slight favorite. And so it is very, very possible. This is not one we cannot be complacent about. We should be fully prepared that if we do not do everything possible, we will have someone as dangerous as Mastroianno as the governor of this state. And so in terms of strategy, yes, he should reach out to Republicans. He shouldn't do it at the expense of trying to turn out the Democratic base. The Republicans he should be looking for are the Republicans who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and voted for a Democrat in the

House or the Senate in 2018. That is the universe of Republicans I think he should be looking for. Yeah, I mean, just so everyone's clear how difficult this year is going to be. Pennsylvania voted to the right of the country in 2020 by like, what, three, four points? Joe Biden wins the popular vote by about four points, wins Pennsylvania by one point. So if we have a midterm where the national vote Republicans are tied or ahead or whatever, now imagine Pennsylvania three to four points to the right, and you realize how even a candidate with a slight edge like Josh Shapiro is going to have an uphill climb just because of the overall political environment. I do think that Shapiro was out with a message about Mastriano the night of the primary.

He released a statement. I thought it was a pretty a message about Mastriano the night of the primary. He released a statement. I thought it was a pretty strong message to start with. He said, Mastriano wants to dictate how Pennsylvanians live their lives. That's not freedom. Real freedom comes when we trust Pennsylvanians to make their own decisions about who they love, who they pray to, and how and when they start a family. I think that's pretty good. Yeah. It tells me that Josh Shapiro watches Pod Save America. I mean, he's been on. No one else has thought of that's pretty good. Yeah, you know what? It tells me that Josh Shapiro watches Pod Save America.

I mean, he's been on. No one else has thought of that other than us. So, yes. No, but it is the type of message that both, I think, you know, as our friend Anat Shankarosori always says, excites the base, but also persuades the middle. Like, I think that is a, it's a very good message. So, the Senate race, we now have a Democratic nominee in Pennsylvania, Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, who won a landslide victory on Tuesday night while recovering from a stroke. He took nearly 60% of the vote while Congressman Conor Lamb got 26% and State Rep

Malcolm Kenyatta got 10%. Some pundits are saying this was an important ideological battle between the more progressive Fetterman and the more moderate Lamb. Others have pointed to Fetterman's near-universal name ID, his style, even his sweatshirt, sweatshort aesthetic. The Atlantic's David Graham had my favorite line. He wrote that Fetterman, quote, looks like he was hacked together from spare parts in an oil-streaked Pittsburgh chopper garage. What do you think? What do you think is going on with Fetterman? I mean, the idea that this was some sort of major ideological clash in the party between the left and the center is absurd. I think it is fair to say that Conor Lamb was a more attitudinally moderate candidate.

And Fetterman endorsed Bernie Sanders is, you know, for and very aggressively for legalizing marijuana, even put a flag, legalized marijuana flag above where the lieutenant governor works. But in the end of the day, I don't think any voter looked at this from an ideological perspective, right? They looked at it from which candidate they wanted to fight for them and which candidate they thought could win. And Fetterman came at us with a gigantic advantage. As was pointed out, he had 100% name ID. He had run statewide.

Conor Lamb had been in the House for like a hot second. No one knew who he was. And so we never even got to the ideological. I don't think it would have been ideological, but we never even got to that because Fetterman came in as such an advantage. And there was no real argument against Fetterman. It's hard to say, like as Conor Lamb's super PAC did, that Fetterman can't win statewide when he has won statewide, right? So it becomes very – it was like he was – By pretty big margins. By pretty big margins. Yeah, by huge margins. He's done very well, and he's done well in the exact parts of the state where Democrats have been losing. So he had an electability argument. He had the enthusiasm of the base.

It was a pretty overwhelming win for Fetterman. Again, I know it's difficult for all of us highly engaged partisans who live on Twitter to imagine that a lot of voters don't approach the race via ideological positioning and even issue positioning but it happens that's the way that voters are um and look federman is is he is more progressive than lamb for sure he doesn't fit neatly into any categories even if you go by his issue positions right like he he supported bernie in 16 um he uh $15 minimum wage, very pro union legalizing weed, very pro choice, no corporate money. But then he opposes mask mandates, wants to keep Title 42, supports fracking, even though he supports the rest of the climate agenda from Democrats. Right. So like he is sort of he's an interesting political figure in the positions that he holds.

I was listening to Sarah Longwell's podcast. She is a never Trumper. She does a lot of focus groups and she was doing focus groups of Pennsylvania voters leading up until the primary. She said that originally, you know, she's a never Trumper and she thought that Conor Lamb would be the stronger candidate. Then she sat in a bunch of focus groups and she said that Federman, Fetterman is the only candidate that she has heard voters enthusiastic about all cycle. Like she couldn't believe the enthusiasm from Pennsylvanians,

mostly Democrats, of course, about John Fetterman. But then she also said he's the only candidate who some of the Trump voters in her Trump groups that she's talked to said that they would consider voting for. Partly because he looks like he could be a Trump voter. I mean, like,

let's be honest, you know, I mean, the Conor Lamb super PAC ran all these ads saying that, um, that Fetterman was a silver spoon socialist. Like, I don't even, first of all, I don't even know what that means. John Fetterman doesn't look like a silver spoon socialist, you know, like, and you see this, like, you know, we're going to talk about David McCormick, who's potentially one of his opponents. McCormick was on Laura Ingraham the other night and he's like, well, you know, he's got this look, but the guy has a trust fund and he went to Harvard. Like he's, he's trying, they, they realize that John Fetterman's style, his appearance, how he, you know, how he does politics is a threat. Biden's style, his appearance, how he does politics is a threat because you can get away with a lot more when you have that kind of style. Well, it's also just the thing with everyone should imprint in their brain is that identity trumps ideology, right? It is people identify

with parts of John Fetterman, who he is, where he's from, who he's going to fight for is more. But they're not looking at him on some sort of national journal vote scale of what he supports. And his look helps him because he seems like an outsider. And that, if there's one thing voters have told us over and over and over again is they want an outsider, right? Whether that is Barack Obama, that is Donald Trump, that is across the board what people want is an outsider. And John Fenneman, even though he is sitting in lieutenant governor's offices, clearly by every part of his life story and his appearance and his personal demeanor and his ideologically complicated policy agenda, is not a traditional politician. And that is to his tremendous advantage in this primary and in the general election. An outsider, but someone who also seems

Pennsylvanian to his core. Yeah. And at a time of extreme economic distress that a lot of people are feeling, particularly because of inflation, who focuses almost exclusively on economic populism, right? In a state where, you know, and he goes to Trump country and goes to rural areas in Pennsylvania and talks to voters about and brings a very economically populist message, which works, which works. So let's talk about the Republican primary

in Pennsylvania. Let's do it. Looking forward to this. Still undecided as of this recording. I was concerned that that might change by the end of this recording, but it still looks like they got a ways to go to count ballots here. So out of more than a million ballots cast,

New Jersey resident Dr. Mehmet Oz is ahead of Connecticut resident David McCormick. I think it, again, it's Thursday morning. It's like around 1,000 votes now. That's all I'm going to say. It's around 1,000 votes. They are still counting mail-in ballots uh for which republicans of course have a a newfound affection so they're trying to count all the mail ballots there's some provisional ballots here and there there's a couple counties where there's still ballots they're counting so they're they got

some work to do um donald trump who endorsed dr o, has obviously encouraged him to just declare victory because, quote, it makes it much harder for them to cheat with the ballots that they just happened to find. Meanwhile, Kathy Barnett, a right wing extremist who's compared Muslims to Satan and gay people to criminals, came in third with 25 percent of the vote, despite a late polling surge that suggested she might win. percent of the vote despite a late polling surge uh that suggested she might win so the polls before election day had mccormick comfortably in third they had barnett surging what do you think happened i think it's possible that horse race polling has reached the level of statistical alchemy. Maybe it just means nothing. Primary polling especially is not always as reliable as general election polling, which as we've also seen- It's not that reliable. It's not that reliable as well, but especially primary polling is tough. I mean, it's hard to know. I mean, the race clearly was moving pretty quickly, right? Barnett

went from almost nothing to like, we have a huge, we have like a fruit from a poison tree problem because all of our comparisons here are other polls. But if you look at the aggregate of the limited, obviously flow of polling we have, Barnett went from clearly nothing to very much in the mix

to a massive amount of scrutiny on her, some pretty powerful right-wing figures attacking her. And so maybe she went up and she came down, and some of that went to McCormick, but that doesn't make a ton of sense. The McCormick thing also doesn't fit within the normal – or the way we sort of have understood polling misses recently, which is we're undercounting MAGA voters, but you don't know, McCormick is probably less of a MAGA voter, like less of a candidate for MAGA voters than Barnett and Oz, who has the

endorsement of Trump, but they're all kind of MAGA. So who knows? Who knows? I think there's an argument to say that media organizations should stop doing horse race polling full stop, because like, what's the point? And it's almost always wrong. So. Because, like, what's the point? And it's almost always wrong. I saw someone who knows Pennsylvania tweeting that sometimes these polls discount, primary polls discount normie Republicans, the few that are left. And David McCormick certainly might be the candidate of more, you know, the Mitt Romney voters, right? The people who are somehow still Republican that are like more suburban voters. I think it's hard to know. I guess if like the way that that could work and not that anyone other than you and I talking about this care, but I guess everyone will have to listen is like the screen is interesting, right?

So is it people who Republicans who voted for Biden in 20 who or did not vote in a Republican primary in 18. Those people aren't super engaged. Maybe they don't pick up the phone when a pollster calls, that kind of thing. Yeah, yeah. So that's the only, that's a possibility. It's a theory. Or it's just all wrong and broken.

And it could be like a broken clock. It's broken in all different ways. A hundred percent. All right. You're John Fetterman. Would you rather face in the general David McCormick or Dr. Oz? And how would you run against each of them? Tough call. I think Fetterman is a very strong contrast against both because, as you point out, he is Pennsylvania through and through. He has populist working class roots from being mayor of Braddock, his policy agenda, and he's running against a millionaire celebrity doctor from New Jersey and a billionaire hedge fund guy from Connecticut. Either one of those is a good contrast. I tend to think, and I think Fetterman is probably the slightest of favorites against either for those reasons. Slightest of favorites, right? He's like a little bit closer to lean Democrat and like

right on the nose of toss up. But the thing I worry about with McCormick, who is, I want to be very clear, a historically shitty candidate. He is just like evidence that if you have enough money, you can buy enough votes to potentially win a nomination. Like he has no charisma, no presence. He just, he might as well be wearing a t-shirt that says hedge fund billionaire country club. Like he is terrible. But what he now has is that

not only did Trump endorse Oz, he aggressively opposed McCormick. And that is going to give, I think, McCormick some Glenn Youngkin moderate credentials that his policy agenda does not warrant. But the fact that Trump opposed him, I think, could create a permission structure for some of the voters that we need, who supported Democrats in 18 and 20, but we're going to need in 2022 to stick with us. And so you can see it, like there is a world where you get some, I think, Shapiro, McCormick voters, because McCormick will be seen as moderate, not because he is actually moderate, but because Donald Trump doesn't like him. will be seen as moderate, not because he is actually moderate, but because Donald Trump doesn't like him. I will say that I am hopeful that John Fetterman and his campaign have learned

the lesson from Terry McAuliffe's race against Glenn Youngkin, because I am already hearing a bunch of journalists say, oh, maybe McCormick's the next Glenn Youngkin and he can act like a suburban soccer dad and win those voters who you were just talking about, some of these suburban voters who voted for who were Republicans or independents who voted for Biden in 2020. Again, I think running against David McCormick as just, you know, don't call him fucking David McTrumpic or whatever. You know, like he's not he's not people aren't going to believe that this guy is Donald Trump. And for good reason, if Donald Trump has been attacking him for the last couple months. Yes, his wife, Dina Powell,

worked in the Trump administration. You know, a big hero. She worked in the Trump administration, quietly said things anonymously to reporters about how it was horrible,

never spoke out, left to go make a lot of money at Goldman Sachs, and then joined her husband's fake MAGA campaign. So good, she's a hero. But anyway,

so, but what David McCormick is, is a million multimillionaire hedge fund guy from Connecticut who, you know, ship jobs overseas and manage money for China, right? He's like Mitt Romney on steroids. So run against that. Like John, it's, I think that's actually a great contrast for John Fetterman, who was this like working class grassroots economic populist from Pennsylvania, and David McCormick is surely not. I think the Oz one, the Oz comparison is a little different. Dr. Oz is like an out-of-state quack celebrity, right? Yeah, and those out-of-state

quack celebrities never get elected to anything, so I would not worry about that. That one's in the bag. It's a little hard. There's that great picture of him that um that mccormick's been using in his ads against oz of oz uh kissing his star on the hollywood walk of fame which i would definitely be using that a lot but look no i what you were just joking about obviously is donald trump i do not think dr oz is as smooth as don Donald Trump or has necessarily the same appeal as Donald Trump. No. I think he is a little stiffer than that. Though he is, I think, you know, I've seen him on the campaign trail.

I've seen him at these debates. He's a lot smoother than some of his Republican opponents. He's a good communicator. He's been on TV forever. So Federman does have to deal with that. Yeah, you don't want to – I think you argue either way, which one you would rather run against. And both of them are going to be very tough because of the political environment and the nature of the state. Yeah. The Oz thing is, I think you don't want to discount two parts of him, which is one media savvy and celebrity

are very helpful attributes in this campaign. And in fact, it has benefited Fetterman in great ways because Fetterman is a celebrity, right? I mean, not at the level of Dr. Oz, but he has been on the cover of magazines and featured on TV because of his appearance and his story and like being the mayor of this town. You know, he would come to the White House as his mayor of the small town

because he was a celebrity mayor. And the other thing is, I think Oz is going have – now, neither of them are traditional politicians. Oz has a little bit more outsider cred, I think, in like a relationship with the voters. He's been on TV their whole lives. He's been sitting next to Oprah. I think it's going to be a little – he's less of a blank slate. McCormick is a blank slate that Fetterman can define. But I think either one of these are going to – there are advantages for Fetterman.

I think he's the exact right candidate to run against both of them. But it's a tough race in a tough state and a really – as of right now, at least pretty shitty political environment. OK, beyond the two big Pennsylvania races, we have a few more takeaways to talk about from Tuesday. North Carolina was the other big swing state to hold primaries. The race to replace retiring Senator Richard Burr will feature former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Sherry Beasley, who I'll be talking to in a bit. feature former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Sherry Beasley, who I'll be talking to in a bit, and the Trump-endorsed Congressman Ted Budd, who crushed the 14-candidate primary field, including the more moderate former Governor Pat McCrory. Another Trump-backed candidate, 26-year-old Beau Hines, won the crowded primary for North Carolina's 13th congressional district.

But in the 11th district, another Trump-endorsed 26-year- year old who we've all come to know and love lost his primary, which means that at the end of this year, Madison Cawthorn will have to go looking for Coke fueled orgy invites somewhere else. Dan, let's start with the Senate race. Ted Budd versus Sherry Beasley rated lean Republican. How should Beasley run against this Trumpy goober? Well, I think the lean Republican is the right rating as of right now. We should be very clear and very honest that winning in states that Joe Biden won in 2020 in a better political environment is going to be tough. Winning in states that Trump won is going to be much harder. That doesn't mean it's impossible.

And I think Sherry Beasley is an excellent candidate. I've been trying to think about how I would approach it or how I would think about that race if I was involved with it. And I think perhaps the best way to do it is you have to think is, in order to win, you're going to have to upend everything that is happening in politics and has happened in North Carolina in a state Democrats have not won at the federal level since 2008. We have lost Senate races. We lost the presidential in 12, 16, 20. And so that means you need a high variance strategy, right? High risk. And I think Ted Budd is kind of irrelevant to that strategy. Like whether it was Ted, like Pat McCrory would have been an easier candidate to run against because the people of North Carolina hate him. But Ted Budd is just generic ultra-mega extremist to use a favorite phrase of our current president.

But the way that I think to think about it is you have to change the electorate in that state. You're going to have to register a ton of voters. You're going to have to turn out people who did not turn out in 2016 or 2020. And I think that requires a – the two campaigns that have sort of adopted that strategy recently are Stacey Abrams in Georgia in 2018 and Beto O'Rourke in Texas in 2018. Now, the challenge of that strategy should be noted with the fact that the two people I suggested did not win with that strategy, but they came closer than people have come in those states in a long time. And that means you are focused intently on registering voters in the parts of the state that have large pockets of Democratic voters in North Carolina, particularly

Black voters and Latina voters. But also you are going to every part of the state. And what you're trying to do is go to like the counties that Tom Tillis beat, let's say Tom Tillis beat Cal Cunningham by 20 points in, right? And under the normal political formula, you would not waste your time to go there. But what you have to do if you have any chance to win is you want to go take that margin, you want to show up, you want to persuade people, you want to take that margin from losing by 20 points to losing by 15 points or 13 points. If you do that enough places, you can get this thing close enough to win. And so I think it is a reach out to every voter everywhere. Focus on your story yourself. I don't think you're going to, given how North Carolina has voted recently, you're not going to convince people that

Ted Budd is worse than the Donald Trump they voted for two years ago or worse than the Tom Tillis they voted for two years ago. And so I think it's going to have to be all about her and her story and running in parts of the state that Democrats have not really campaigned aggressively and since probably Obama in 2008. I think that's right. I think to the extent that you do have a message about your opponent, which she will obviously have. And she, you know, previewed it with me during our interview. I think it's to sort of define Ted Budd as outside of even the typical Republican mainstream that North Carolinians have voted for, the people from North Carolina have voted for over the last several, I mean, like, even with Trump, Ted Budd voted against all pandemic relief, even the Trump bills, the Trump pandemic relief, which I think is probably not popular.

And of course, then he voted to overturn the election, which we know because of his vote and also because he was one of the people who texted Mark Meadows that George Soros rigged the election and rigged all the machines. So Ted Budd is way out there, which gives you some fodder. But I agree that that's a sort of a limited strategy. You really have to talk about yourself in a state like North Carolina. You got any parting words for Madison Cawthorn? I just want to say I'm sorry to Madison Cawthorn. He does the right thing. He blows the whistle on this Coke-fueled GOP orgy circuit, and they come after him.

That is, it's the price of doing the right thing, and he lost his job for it. Emphasis on the word blow huh let's just be clear that let's just be clear that given all of the possible puns i could have made the cocaine one was the most appropriate for this quasi family podcast we have right here i will just say god i read this very lengthy Politico profile about Madison Carthorne from the other week, and it made me feel, I don't want to say sympathy for him, but like, this is someone who is clearly struggling. And I actually like hope he gets help because he is in a, I think he's in a pretty dark

place and it's, uh, it's, it's pretty ugly what he's gone through. All right. Another Trump candidate whose loss on Tuesday should come as a relief to all of us was Idaho Lieutenant Governor Janice McGeechan, who once delivered a speech at a white nationalist event and took a picture with the right wing militia. Idaho's current Republican Governor Brad Little, no liberal, very, very conservative, very Trumpy, beat her handily. But Trump did have quite a few wins on Tuesday, and there were quite a few other extreme Republicans who won their primaries besides Mastriano. Dan, anyone in particular you think we should be watching out for? You know, in anticipation of this question, I went through all the results to try to find the one person who was like, other than Mastroianni, who was super scary. And you know what the takeaway is? They're all bad.

Sometimes the slightly less bad version defeated the terrible version. But across the board, there is no one running against Trump. There's no never Trump or there's no current version of Mitt Romney. It's all a question. There's no one who disbelieves or pushes back against the big lie. It is just all bad. It is all MAGA. It's all extreme everywhere. And that is the thing. That's the thing that's scary, that whether the person who won the nomination potentially ends up in Congress or the Senate or the governor's office is someone who truly believes to their core all their public conspiracy theories, like Doug Mastrano, or someone who pretends to believe them because that's what it takes to get elected, like Dr. Oz or David McCormick or anyone else.

The result is the same once they get there, because all of the political momentum, all the political incentives push towards this dangerous conduct. Let's say Lou Barletta, who was one of the people who ran against Mastroianno, had won. I would not feel that much safer if we were with Lou Barletta in office and Doug Mastroianno if push came to shove on the 2024 election and whether they're going to send their electors. There's no Republican you can send that should make you feel good about the state of democracy right now. You look across this field of candidates, all of them on Tuesday, you don't see any Liz Cheney's or Adam Kinzinger's or Mitt Romney's in this field of people. You see people who maybe didn't

get Trump's endorsement, but then because they didn't get Trump's endorsement, tried to act as Trumpy as possible to then beat the person who did get Trump's endorsement. That's the dynamic right here. And because the party's become so radicalized. All right. Finally, there were four other Democratic primaries on Tuesday that featured competitive races between progressive and center left candidates for U.S. House seats. It looks like each wing of the party won two. In North Carolina, the winners were center left candidates Valerie Foushee and Don Davis. In Pennsylvania, the more progressive Summer Lee won an extremely close House race for a seat in Pittsburgh. And in Oregon, it appears that Jamie McLeod Skinner will knock off incumbent Kurt Schrader, a moderate Democrat endorsed by Joe Biden himself.

Dan, what, if anything, can we learn about the preferences of Democratic voters or the direction of the Democratic Party from these races? Almost nothing, I would say. I mean, I think it is like there's- Well then, we're moving on. Yeah. There's a tendency to try to like jam this into a narrative where it's, you know, and we saw this in some of the 2018 primaries, which is like big blow to the Justice Democrats and progressives because in some of the 2018 primaries, which is like big blow to the Justice Democrats and progressives because they lost a bunch of primaries, or the party is moving

to the left as we can see this. But the picture is more complicated, right? Candidate quality matters. Context for these races matter. And in many cases, the better candidate running on an agenda that spoke more to the moment and to the elector of that district won. That was Summer Lee in Pennsylvania. not a member of – supported by Justice Democrats or anything like that. He lost because he sided with the pharmaceutical industry over his own constituents on the most popular issue in all of American politics, allowing Medicare to negotiate cheaper drug prices. That's why he lost, right? That is like – that is not conservative. That is stupid and corporatist and bad and greedy. And that's why he lost.

I thought that race was very interesting because McLeod Skinner, she did not necessarily focus as much on her own progressive positions. She ran a race against him by saying he was the Joe Manchin of the House and voted against the American Rescue Plan. Not a popular thing to do. Criticized Democrats for impeaching Trump. Not a popular thing to do. Helped kill prescription drug reform, like you said, and build back better. One of the most unpopular things to do of any policy issue anywhere is to kill prescription drug reform.

And her line against him, which worked very well, was you've run so far to the right that running against you just means I'm a Democrat. Right. She didn't even have to say that she's a very progressive Democrat. She's the mainstream Democrat. He's the Joe Manchin Democrat way out to the right. And that worked for her in that district. I also one more note on the Summer Lee win. that district after so much super PAC money was dumped into that race by an APAC affiliated super PAC that has also endorsed a bunch of pro-insurrectionist Republican candidates. And were there ads about disagreements over her policy on Israel versus her candidate? No, they just decided to just run a bunch of lies about her.

And it was actually pretty gross what some of these super PACs are doing, these AIPAC super PACs. And basically what they say is, it's not like you can have a good faith disagreement about Israel and Israel policy. They're basically like, if you don't support right wing, far right extremist governments in Israel, then they're going to dump a bunch of money and lie about you on a whole bunch of other issues and say that you're not a real Democrat. And it's pretty gross. And the fact that Summer Lee was able to win that race with that much money being dumped in that district is, you know, it's pretty great. I think I don't want to dismiss the idea that ideology matters to some voters. It certainly does, right? A lot of people, like we are probably some voters who will look at people's policy

positions and do it. But the question is often, who is going to fight for me, right? Who's going to stand up for the things I care about? And that person could be very clear, you know, and it's perfectly a someone who adopts populist economics, which may make them more progressive or have them do that. But it's just not, it's very hard to put people in boxes and make predictions about electoral outcomes, right? Because there's a lot happening there. And I think hopefully there's some lessons for some Democrats, Kyrsten Sinema for one,

from Kurt Schrader's loss about how politics has changed and what voters in your state actually want is not just the problem solvers caucus, DLC, no labels agenda. I think they will accept, as they do with Fetterman, some complex positions and some things they don't disagree with, but they want to think that you are fighting for them. And that is going to mean, in many cases, standing up against corporate interests. And look, I think the Justice Democrats, a lot of their ads for their candidates, especially their bio ads, are outstanding. Summer Lee releases, no exception. Of course, in that later in that bio ad,

she lists her positions on Medicare for all and green new deal and stuff like that positions, which we know outside very liberal districts do not have a majority support, at least among moderates that you need in some purple districts. But the ad starts out like, you know, I'm from, she's from Braddock as well.

And she's like, we made the steel that built America. And then when the rich executives left, we were the ones who suffered our kids got asthma, our our people lost jobs. And now we're trying to get a movement to make sure that, you know, working people and poor people can succeed in this country. It's just a good message and a good story. And that works. I think I think I think you should not discount the power of candidate quality, the story they tell, who they are, the coalitions they're building like these are all very, very important to to candidate success as well. It's not just a not just a list of policy positions. OK, when we come back, I will interview the Democratic candidate for Senate in North Carolina, former Chief Justice Sherry Beasley. Joining us now is the Democratic candidate for Senate in North Carolina. She's former

Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, who will face the Trumpy election denier Ted Budd in the midterms this November. Sherry Beasley, welcome to the pod. Thank you so much, John. I appreciate it. So you were a judge at just 32 years old who rose to win the very top job in your state. Why did you want to become a judge? And what did that job teach you about your state and your country? You know, I grew up with values of hard work and service and integrity taught to me by my mom. And I enjoyed the practice of law. I was a public defender first and just kind of knew that the role would be right to understand

and protect and uphold the rule of law and respect the constitution, which I know are very, very important. And it was great, of course, to be a trial judge, to really see and see the conflicts in people's lives. And people honestly often don't come to court on their best days. And then to be an appellate judge on the Court of Appeals, and then the Supreme Court, and then Chief Justice, which are really reviewing courts. Those have been just amazing opportunities to be in service and to really appreciate that all of the decisions that people that are made in courts impact people's everyday lives, whether they know it or not, and to really see the plight of people and to certainly understand. I've been in court almost every day for the last 30 years, seeking the truth at times it's hardest to find and being

engaged in people's lives at times which have been life-changing for them and frankly often life-changing for me and there really is humanity in being a judge and there's humanity in being a senator. So we're a few weeks out from the leak of the draft Supreme Court opinion that overturns Roe v. Wade. A recent poll found that fewer than half of all Americans now trust the Supreme Court. That's the lowest share since they started asking the question. What do you say to people who feel like they can't trust our justice system anymore because it's become too politicized and in the case of the Supreme Court, too radicalized?

You know, I'm certainly bothered by the leak. But what I don't want us to be distracted from is what we saw in that draft opinion. have the constitutional right to privacy to protect their reproductive health, to make their own decisions with their health care provider without government interference. And it is a constitutional right protected by the 14th Amendment and other amendments. And it's disheartening. So many people are incensed. The majority of North Carolinians support the right to abortion, as do the majority of Americans. And so it's really important as I think about why this race is so important. We understand what's at stake. When there's an attack on constitutional rights, we should all be alarmed and we should really feel a sense of urgency around this election.

should really feel a sense of urgency around this election. I'm concerned here in North Carolina that we have a congressman, Congressman Budd, who will be my opponent in this election, who is not opposed to a total ban, even in the case of incest, rape, or the health of a mother. Well, there's something deeply wrong with that. And so I am running to make sure that we protect our constitutional rights rights to stand for what's right for the people here in North Carolina. He will not put North Carolina first, and I'm going to make sure to do what's right by the people of this state. So after the Women's Health Protection Act failed in the Senate a few weeks ago, President Biden said that if voters send a pro-choice majority to Congress, he'll be able to sign that bill into law. If you get to the Senate,

would you vote to remove the filibuster so that a Democratic Senate can pass a law to guarantee nationwide abortion access? You know, I certainly would, John. I know it's important to eliminate the filibuster. It is a tool of gridlock that has hindered the passage of legislation that the majority of people in this country support. And I certainly absolutely would have supported the Women's Health Protection Act. We need to codify and make law Roe versus Wade. But of course, the opinion we saw was a draft opinion,

but we should be deeply concerned. So I was working on Barack Obama's campaign when we won North Carolina in 2008. A Democrat has not won a statewide federal race since then. What do you think happened to North Carolina? Because I thought after we won in 2008, it would sort of start acting like Virginia did after 2008 and start getting bluer. Well, we certainly had a wonderful Kay Hagan who was successful in 2008. And we have been really close often since that period of time. And we're ready.

We have done the work in this campaign. We are excited about all the opportunities to travel across the state to meet voters, to hear about their concerns. So many people here are struggling. We're the ninth largest state in the nation, and they want to know that the next senator is going to fight for them, who's somebody who's going to stand for what's right, who's going to take the values of hard work and integrity to the Senate. And we're ready. I mean, we understand it's important. This will be a tough fight. I've had tough fights before. I've never backed ready. I mean, we understand it's important. This will be a tough fight. I've had tough fights before. I've never backed down.

I'm not going to back down now. But people are really concerned about the direction that they see the state going into and this country. And so we're going to work hard for every single vote. We're investing in voters now. And we just know that this is a precipice. I know we were told in 2020 that that was the most important election of our lifetimes, but I will tell you, my late mother was granted the right to vote because of the Voting Rights

Act. And if she would hear, she would tell us that every election is the most important election of our lifetimes. So we're spending a lot of time making sure that we're listening to the concerns that voters have, but also helping them to really appreciate the magnitude of this election and of this moment. I'm really curious what kind of concerns you're hearing. Obviously, the most difficult challenge in a midterm for the party that holds the presidency is making sure that our voters don't stay home. When you meet people who might be reluctant to vote this fall, don't know if their vote is worth it, don't

know if they should come out to vote, what's usually their reason and what do you tell them? You know, I think often people don't think their votes matter. And there are so many people who have felt discounted for far too long. And it is important for them to feel a sense of empowerment. It is deeply wrong when state legislatures gerrymander and dilute votes in rural communities and in communities of color. And so helping them to understand the greater picture of what's happening, helping them to know that we've not been well served here in North Carolina by our two Republican senators, helping them to know that the next senator really must fight to lower costs, provide access to good quality health care. In North Carolina, we do not have Medicaid expansion.

quality health care in north carolina we do not have medicaid expansion i'm prepared to fight to lower prescription drug costs north carolina spends the fourth highest in the nation on prescription drugs to make sure we're bringing good paying jobs to people here in the state to fight for a strong economy and you know this election isn't just about uh today it really is about riding the ship and making sure that the next generation and generations to come have a country that is right for them, that is on the right keel, and is in a place where they can take the gauntlet and go forward and be successful. You were just talking about the fact that your opponent, Ted Budd, supports completely criminalizing abortion, even in the case of rape, incest, and the life and health

of the mother. What else should people know about Ted Budd? You know, I think actions speak louder than words. And Congressman Ted Budd has not been the kind of person who has served North Carolina well. We just had, Congress just had a vote yesterday to increase the supply of baby formula. And at a time when there's a shortage of baby formula, he voted against the legislation. It's not right for North Carolina. You know, know, this is a big military state with lots of veterans, and he voted not to increase veteran pay. He voted against expanding access to health care. He voted against infrastructure legislation at a time when both of our senators here in

North Carolina voted for it. And so even at a time when it just makes sense to do what's right, he has chosen not to do what's right. And so when people show you who they are, you better believe them. We need to make sure that we do not elect somebody who will not put the state first, who really will put us in a very, very difficult and dangerous place, particularly not just around abortion, but really that case speaks heavily to civil rights that we've been fighting for, for a very, very long time. And we just don't need somebody like that in the United States Senate.

If you win, you would be the first Black woman from North Carolina to serve in the U.S. Senate. You could be potentially the only Black woman to serve in the U.S. Senate, you could be potentially the only Black woman to serve in the U.S. Senate right now. I know that's probably not at the front of your mind as you're campaigning, but how do you process that? How are you processing that as you campaign in this race? You know, John, I certainly know the importance of it. I know that representation matters. I can tell you the first time that I ever saw an African-American woman presiding over a courtroom, I was a lawyer and that was then Judge Patricia Timmons Goodson. And I know it changed the trajectory of my life. It helped me to better envision the possibilities for my life. And so I know diversity matters in all of our institutions and in all of our government platforms. And you're right, it's not at the forefront,

but I certainly appreciate the magnitude. There are 24 women in the Senate, and you're right, no African-American women in the Senate. I also know what it means for young people to be able to see and understand and envision in the very same way that I was able to the possibilities for their lives, but for all of us, regardless of race and gender, to know that we must value diversity in order for us to be the very best that we can be. And so this race is important on a whole lot of levels. And I know that in addition to that very, very important fact, that fighting for the people of the state about the issues that they really, really care about. And so many people in my state are struggling. About a third of the people here earn less than $15 an hour. So there were people in North Carolina who were struggling before the pandemic,

and they are certainly struggling now. They want somebody in the Senate who's going to fight for them. And that's really why I'm running. Chief Justice Beasley, thank you so much for taking the time to join Pod Save America and good luck in the campaign ahead. Great to be here, John. Thank you. Thanks to Sherry Beasley for joining us today. Everyone have a fantastic weekend, and we'll talk to you next week. Bye, everyone. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. The executive producer is Michael Martinez. Our senior producer is Andy Gardner-Bernstein.

Our producer is Haley Muse, and Olivia Martinez is our associate producer. It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis sound engineer the show. Thanks to Tanya Sominator, Sandy Gerard, Hallie Kiefer, Ari Schwartz, Andy Taft, and Justine Howe for production support. And to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Phoebe Bradford, Milo Kim, and Amelia Montuth.

Our episodes are uploaded as videos at youtube.com slash crookedmedia.