Pod Save America - Trump Goes Birther on Haley

Episode Date: January 19, 2024

With the New Hampshire primary just five days away, Trump attacks Nikki Haley using an all-too-familiar line of attack. The Granite State is Haley's last, best chance—but is she even fighting to win it anymore? New Hampshire Public Radio's Josh Rogers stops by to talk about what he's seeing—and what's missing—on the campaign trail. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail] and include the name of the podcast.

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. We're back, Dan, for our first Friday show. I don't know if you heard the end of Tommy and Lovett's show on Wednesday, but Lovett said, Will Jon and Dan be back? It's a great... I guess they'll be back. It's a great question. It's confusing. It's a Friday show, but we're recording this on Thursday,

which is why for three years you guys called the Tuesday pod Monday pod publicly, confusing everyone. I know. I know. I know. It's Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday. Everyone remember, Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday for listeners. For us, we're going to have to think about, you know, we have a whole different recording schedule. All right. On today's show, Ron DeSantis says he's staying in the race, but his campaign doesn't seem so sure.

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris kick their reelect into high gear. Donald Trump orders MAGA Mike Johnson not to cut a deal on border security, and later we'll be joined by New Hampshire Public Radio's Josh Rogers for a preview of Tuesday's primary. First, let's talk about the state of the race in New Hampshire, where Nikki Haley is looking to score a major upset against Republican frontrunner Donald Trump, a man who's been judged a rapist by a jury of his peers and is still facing 91 felony counts for committing fraud, stealing classified secrets and trying to overturn the last election so he could remain in power. Charges he's fighting with the legal defense that presidents are allowed to commit as many crimes as they'd like,

even if they, quote, cross the line. even if they, quote, cross the line. According to the 538, this is the guy who's in the lead. Nikki Haley is just trying to score a major upset against this guy, the adjudicated rapist, 91 felony counts he's facing. According to the 538 polling average, Trump is at 47% in New Hampshire, but with Nikki Haley just 13 points behind, nipping at his heels with 34%, it's no more Mr. Nice Guy. In Portsmouth on Wednesday, Trump let loose a few bird brains, his favorite name for Nikki Haley. He called attention to her Indian first name, Nimarata, photoshopped a picture of her face on Hillary Clinton's body,

and delivered another gracious, disciplined speech like the one we saw in Iowa on Monday night. A vote for Nikki Haley this Tuesday is a vote for Joe Biden and a Democrat Congress. The people behind Nikki Haley are pro-abnesty, they're pro-China, they're pro-open borders. You know, she wants open borders. Non-liquid gold, you know where it was? Iowa. It's called corn. They have, it's non-liquid. That's my take. You have more non-liquid gold. You know where it was? Iowa. It's called corn. They have, it's non-liquid. That's my day. You have more non-liquid gold. That's a nickname in its own way, but we came up with a new word for a new couple of words for corn. I said, well, is that a hard test? It can be hard. I said, look, I got to take it because I got to shut it up. And I took it and I aced it. And let me tell you,

you know, they always show you the first one, like a giraffe, a tiger, this or that, a whale. Which one is the whale? OK. And that goes on for three or four. And then it gets harder and harder and harder. Of course, that's Trump talking about taking a dementia test, which I think he should ask for a refund. for a refund. Personally. That is just... Anyway, that's the guy that half the country says they want

at the helm. That's the kind of mental acumen that allows him to just make sure that the economy is humming on all cylinders. That's what we love about him. So Dan, color me skeptical that Nikki Haley is going to be able to pull off an upset now that Trump's going all in on the attack that she's a Hillary-loving, globalist, establishment rhino shill with a funny name who, wink, wink, might not have even been born here.

But what do you think? I feel like you're leading the witness with this question. I share your skepticism. I'm not entirely sure that Nikki Haley is trying to win at this point. I am mystified by what she is doing. She's doing one event or so a day in New Hampshire. She's really not taking questions. She's not barnstorming.

She has five days left in her presidential campaign if she does not win New Hampshire. She's really not taking questions. She's not barnstorming. She has five days left in her presidential campaign if she does not win New Hampshire. And she's not doing any of the things that someone in that position would do. She's not really fighting back. She's not laying out the stakes. She's not, I mean, you would, this would be the time in a campaign where you would campaign around the clock. Maybe you would sleep for four hours a night. You'd be up, you'd be at diners in the morning. Then you would go here, you'd be on a bus tour. You'd do all these things. She's doing like one event a day.

It is the most bizarre thing I have ever seen. Did you see that she flew back to South Carolina Tuesday night because her father is 90 and was in the hospital? So she wanted to visit her father. I guess he's okay. He was having cancer was in the hospital. So she wanted to visit her father. I guess he's OK. He was having cancer treatments in the hospital. So she loses that night, day. I guess she was back on the trail Wednesday. She's been going everywhere with Chris Sununu, the governor of New Hampshire.

She did have this to say about Trump's latest attack on Nikki Haley. Just, you know, a vote for Nikki Haley is's vote for democrats let's listen trump says things americans aren't stupid to just believe what he says the reality is who lost the house for us who lost the senate who lost the white house donald trump donald trump donald trump nikki haley will win every single one of those back for us i've proven that has she yeah i was gonna say when did she prove that um she let me she's not wrong about trump that's for sure but uh yeah i don't even even there i don't i don't sense the urgency i'm not sure what she's trying to do here i think she's trying to land the plane where she

can end this campaign with some measure of dignity without upsetting trump to the point in which she has been completely evicted from the party going. I have a different take, which is that she is trying to win, but she is at her core, a cautious politician who is very afraid to rock the boat. And so she's like, I don't want to take questions because then I had the, you know, what was the cause of the civil war? They really stumped me with that one. So I don't want another situation where I get a tough question and it takes me off my message. But also, I don't know if I should hit Trump. I don't know what my message is. I don't want to piss off the right.

I don't want to piss off the moderate. So maybe I'll just crouch down in my position and that'll be enough to win. But, I mean, that's insane. Yes, I think she is an overly cautious politician. She is an overly cautious politician. And let's even say she has decided that because she was stumped by the most basic question on a sixth grade history exam, that she's decided that maybe she shouldn't take questions anymore. So do 15 events a day not taking questions. Don't do one. I mean, there is just the electability message that she is offering now maybe could have worked if she was building a case for it over time.

But she has not done that. She has not leaned into it. And even then, she does not say the thing you have to say if you want to deliver an electability message, which is if you nominate Donald Trump, he will lose to Joe Biden. That's the thing you have to say, but she won't say that because that will anger, I don't know if she cares if it angers Trump personally, but it'll anger some people in the party. She thinks Donald Trump's probably going to beat her. She doesn't want that hanging over her. And here's the problem with waiting on the selectability message. For you and I have been talking about Republicans offering electability message on Trump for a year. It's possible we were always wrong. And Republicans made it, including Nikki

Haley, made it worse for themselves by never really being able to admit that Joe Biden legitimately won the election. But right now she's doing this message. She decided this is what she's going to use. In the YouGov poll that came out this week, they asked people, regardless of who you support, who do you think will win the election? 84% of Republicans think Donald Trump's going to win the election. They are not afraid he's going to lose. And so you need a different message. I think that she made- What do you think that message would be? I don't even know what that would be. If I didn't go with the electability one, I don't know what I would do. There's no message you can come up with today that is going to solve this problem. You needed this message for a year. If she had done,

I'm not saying she could have won. That's not the argument I'm making. But you build an argument up over time, particularly for someone like Donald Trump, who is incredibly well-known and incredibly well-liked by the voters you need. The change message that she was offering in her concession slash victory slash I got third place, but it wasn't a terrible third place speech in Iowa, was a message that could have been at the foundation of a more successful campaign than the one she's running. But she didn't really do that. And I do think there was one massive strategic blunder she made. And that was she should never have gone to Iowa. All the chips are in New Hampshire. She wins New Hampshire, she has a shot. The world can debate

if it's a 2% shot or a 20% shot, but she stays alive to fight another day. So instead of staying in New Hampshire and competing where she had to win, she went to Iowa, took time going to Iowa, and tried to possibly beat Ron DeSantis for second. And even if she had done that, she still would have lost by 30 points. Like the idea that that was going to somehow give her momentum. It was just a fundamental blunder when she should have just stayed in New Hampshire and given herself a shot to actually win that. And look, we've only seen a couple polls. Maybe she will

win New Hampshire. I would be surprised by that outcome. But she has not maximized her chances by running a good campaign or being a particularly good candidate, frankly. I don't have a strong opinion on this. I'm not sure it would have mattered if she had skipped Iowa and stayed in New Hampshire. There would have just been more pressure on her to win New Hampshire, but she needed to win it anyway. And then she would have maybe gotten even lower in Iowa if she wouldn't campaign there, or maybe she wouldn't have.

I don't think it fucking matters either way. She was coming in third in Iowa under all scenarios, right? I was going to say, I don't, yeah, I just don't know that it would have mattered. I do think, I looked into the New Hampshire polls. It does seem like she's, even these polls where she's down by like double digits to Donald Trump, 10 points, 13 points, whatever. She's definitely gaining in these polls.

The challenge for her is that Trump is gaining as well. And that with Vivek out and DeSantis fading, like those voters, as we've been saying for a while, are going. They're not going to Haley. They're going to Trump. And so he's gaining just like she's gaining. She is winning moderates, winning the undeclared vote, which is a big portion of there could be a big portion of the electorate on Tuesday. She's winning liberals, obviously winning college educated voters. It just doesn't seem like in the polls that she's winning those groups by enough or that there are enough of them to counteract Trump's strength with conservatives, Republicans, and non-college voters. And she could expand the electorate and there are enough undeclared voters in New Hampshire for her to win, but that would require giving people a reason to come out to vote for.

Or going to meet them by doing events. Right. I mean, there are enough independent voters. In 2012, you need to pick, to try to give yourself a baseline that you have to pick a year in which there was only a Republican primary. But in 2012, I think it was 49% of the electorate was independent. And one of the things that's interesting, we look at all these polls, is she down 7%, down 20%, is what the estimate of the independent share of the electorate is in that poll. The CNN poll, when she was down 7%, it was about half. It was probably like 44%, I think.

So there are enough voters there, but you can't get their own independence alone. You have to win a slice of Republicans and then overwhelmingly with the independents. And she's kind of doing neither right now. And the Trump people, of course, know that she's trying to appeal to undeclared voters, moderates, independents. And so they have an ad that they are running on MSNBC, of all places, about Nikki Haley. Let's take a listen. Social Security, Medicare, how would you manage the entitlements? We say the rules have changed. We changed retirement age to reflect life expectancy.

What we do know is 65 is way too low, and we need to increase that. Haley's plan cuts social security benefits for 82 percent of americans trump will never let that happen i'm donald j trump and i approve this message ouch it's really a twofer because you know you you run that out on msnbc liberals and moderates don't like that there's probably a bunch of conservatives that don't like that either. Because in this Republican Party, you have the working class voters who get really excited about sort of the cultural racial issues and not as much about economics and actually probably like their Social Security benefits. I mean, outside of Paul Ryan's living room, you probably can't find a person who thinks that cutting Social Security and Medicare is a great

idea politically or personally. So yeah, I mean, it it's i think ironic the msnbc wouldn't air trump's victory speech but we'll take his money for his ads but that's the conversation for another day it's a it's a uh air the speeches cnn msnbc air the fucking speeches just driving me nuts just us furiously trying to find C-SPAN on the cable box on Monday night so we can catch. Well, it's not for us even. It's just like Americans need to be reminded of why they hated Donald Trump so much. What are we doing? Anyway, go. It's crazy. But yeah, it's smart. They recognize that they can drive down her vote share even a tiny bit with independents. You know, how many New Hampshire independents watch MSbc if you do the math based on a national basis you know it's

not that many but not that many also matters uh a couple of my aunts it's just it is their msnbc viewers that's right where they were they heading out to catch hayley uh at the uh the puritan bathroom that's right there you go yeah they're gonna have some chicken fingers and chicken fingers in the business it does seem like that the trump people don't just want to beat her in new hampshire they want to beat her so badly that she drops out before south carolina it seems like they're going for the uh they're going for the kill here on her and desantis they want to end this thing after new hampshire which they might yeah i saw a story today somewhere that said Trump people targeting Super Tuesday to end the primary. I was like, really? That seems like the worst case scenario for him at current

trajectory, right? How is this thing still going after South Carolina? Unless somehow Haley beats him in South Carolina, which seems quite hard to imagine given her performance in Iowa, which is moderate compared to South Carolina in terms of the electorate. Yeah, she's going to get that boost coming in a close second in New Hampshire. You see that like Chris Sununu, governor of New Hampshire last month was saying like guarantee that Nikki Haley is going to win New Hampshire. And like this week, he was like, um, I mean, a strong second is all we ever really hope for here. Yeah. Which tells you everything about their internal polling. I know. So we also got to talk about our boy Tiny D,

who finished 30 points behind Trump in Iowa, didn't win a single county. DeSantis is now apparently skipping New Hampshire, where he's only at 5% in the polls. And his never-backed-down super PAC is in fact backing down by laying off a bunch of staff. So DeSantis is telling reporters

he's staying in the race through March. I don't actually see that happening. Do you? I mean, it's really an existential question. Is he still in the race right now? I mean, no one's thinking about him. His obituary has been written. He's not in debates.

No one's really talking about him. So yeah, I mean, I guess. It's really a about them so yeah i mean i guess it's really it's really really a six cents ending here yeah i was i i you know i've thought really long and hard about bringing the six cents up because you really you didn't want to you didn't want a spoiler is that what it was or you just think it's just think it's dating the references i don't mind like look i i i know my age i don't mind dating my references at all, but I was sort of like, what is the, the statute of limitations on spoiling a movie? And there's no way to make the joke without spoiling the,

one of the greatest twists. Well, you know what? We did it. We did. That was not a, it was not a spoil. I was just,

we just sort of, we did it. We did it. Yeah. So did you read Mark Caputo's story in the messenger about how, uh, Trump crushed DeSantis? It's this great,

like it's the type of story that's written after this candidate drops out uh but it's sort of a pre-obituary and it's just got i have rarely seen so many consultants and campaign staff throw the candidate under the bus before the campaign has even ended i have some thoughts on the story. Okay. One, I have rarely seen a reporter write a piece with more obvious dripping disdain for the subject than Mark Caputo clearly has for Ron DeSantis. That's true. It was not subtle in any way, shape, or form how he felt about him. And one of the tells was that in this piece where he quotes, he basically talks to anyone who has ever worked for or known Ron DeSantis to get them to crap on Ron DeSantis. But then the lead quote in the story is just from Chris LaCivita, Trump's campaign guy now, just dumping on Ron DeSantis.

Like totally unnecessary, did not need it to be done. It just like leave the story with him just basically destroying DeSantis in print. It was a wild story. Second thing I'd say about the story is fascinating story, very well written, full of interesting things. And while the details were new, I was surprised by none of it, which shows what a horrendous campaign that DeSantis ran. His campaign was leaking all this stuff. He had obituaries written about his campaign every two months for a year. And so when we got to this, I was not at all surprised by it.

I was like, yeah, none of that's shocking. Makes complete sense. Some of those anecdotes we kind of knew various versions of because the only people who hated Ron DeSantis more than the people of Iowa and New Hampshire were his staff, who have been crapping on him

to reporters the whole time. And the consultants who were at least being paid well, but we have one consultant that said, uh, no one tells him he's wrong. Another consultant said, you know, he ignored calls too early to stay more focused on the economy and sound more

positive. Uh, he was told by advisors. DeSantis was told by his advisors that interactions with voters were crucial and that he needed to seem more relatable to voters. DeSantis' response, quote, people don't care about that stuff. He was told by his pollster

that the six-week ban, abortion ban, would be quite bad and not popular. He disagreed. One consultant said the Twitter launch was a disaster. Remember the Twitter launch? Remember his ex-launch with Elon Musk and the besties in the All In pod? Yes. Remember that?

That was fun. It's going to be the podcast election, Dan. That's what they think. They told him to stop talking about Florida so much, and then the consultant said, whoever advised him to go on Christian TV and say he wanted to have dinner with Jesus should be fired. This campaign is like an Irish wake waiting for the body to drop. Yeah, that's the best line.

That was just my favorite. I love that line. I have heard rumors that he's actually having conversations about whether to stay in despite what he's saying. Pause. You've heard rumors? Yeah, I've heard sources. Are you doing reporting now i am doing reporting yeah just accidentally accidental reporting accidental reporting from text conversations like did you

i'm sure he's thinking of how to wind this thing down right yeah i mean absolutely i just don't i think it seems like they don't they're not gonna have the money there was apparently an mbc had a story there was a call with donors where they said we think we'll probably be able to raise the money to stay until till south carolina not a chance there's not a not a person which is like if you're saying that you think you think you might be able to raise the money to stay into south carolina you probably can't raise the money to stay into south carolina who's gonna give that campaign money right now that is the one thing you always know when When a campaign ever says, I think we can raise the money, they definitely cannot. It's over. It has been over for months. It probably never started,

to be fair. And everyone has known it. It has been, it's just, even Ron DeSantis seems to have known it because he had such joy at coming in second and I'm using joy in the most Ron DeSantis version of that which is it just seemed to briefly stop hating himself and the smile just turned the corners of his mouth just a little like

it was just like a little bit more it was just like a relief that something not absolutely horrendous happened on the way out. And it just says everything that that not horrendous thing was losing by 30 points, not more. So, I mean, it is a, there are probably some object lessons that we can talk about, about why his campaign was such a disaster and what it says about politics. But there's no question it was an absolute disaster. Some of you be wondering why have we just been so long talking about ron desantis and look it's going to be a long and brutal campaign there's going to be a lot of tough days i wanted to dance on his grave for a little bit i i had fun i don't know about you i think we

deserve that dan the listeners deserve that absolutely yeah they do yeah this is fan service yeah there's no i don't think there's anyone out there complaining about this. A few quick housekeeping notes. Dan, great second episode of The Polar Coaster. I listened this week. I was catching up on all my podcasts from when I was on parental leave.

You talked to Sarah Longwell, one of our favorites, to answer the question, can any Republican beat Trump? Spoiler. Listen before Tuesday. That's right. our favorites to answer the question can any republican beat trump let's listen spoiler listen before tuesday but you should be listening to all the polar coaster episodes you should be subscribing to friends of the pod so you can get this fantastic content uh it's dan talking to some of the smartest people in polling some of the smartest strategists. It's a fantastic show. It's a subscriber exclusive series. So make sure to head to cricket.com slash friends to get first access

to new episodes and more. Anything else you'd like to add, Dan, or did I, did I plug that? I thought, I thought you did a great job, but as, as we always say, if you were, if you're someone like us who is going to live and die with every one of these polls, you want to know what's happening. You want to dig deep. You're a junkie. If you're a polling junkie, this show's for you. There you go. There you go. Also, we are officially in an election year,

which means it's time to get psyched up with some fresh Vote Save America gear. Grab a new tee for your next volunteer shift or a crew neck that's been specially designed for peak phone banking performance. Plus 100% of profits from the Vote Save America. 100% of profits from the Vote Save America. 100% of profits from the Vote Save America collection go straight towards supporting Vote Save America

and grassroots organizations that are helping Americans get the tools they need to make a difference. Head to crooked.com slash store to shop now. Before we move on, it looks like the Biden campaign is finally kicking into high gear. They're running their first ads in South Carolina ahead of the primary there on February 3rd, the first primary that counts for Democrats. first primary that counts for Democrats. And the campaign also announced that President Biden, the First Lady, Vice President Harris, and the second gentleman will be holding a rally focused on abortion rights in Northern Virginia on Tuesday,

the day of the New Hampshire primary and the day after the anniversary of Roe v. Wade. What's your take on the thinking behind the timing, location, and focus of this event? I think it is smart to have a display of political strength and enthusiasm on the day of the New Hampshire primary. There are no delegates at stake.

Biden is not on the ballot, but there are Democrats organizing a Joe Biden write-in campaign. Dean Phillips is a person who still exists and he's running up there. Marianne Williamson, believe it or not, is still on the ballot up there. Marianne Williamson, believe it or not, is still, she's on the ballot up there. And usually, mostly polling ahead of Dean Phillips,

wherever they do polling. Yes, that is true. I'm not entirely sure she's campaigning. I haven't heard anything about that, but she is on the ballot. So there is going to be some coverage of how Joe Biden does in that primary. And so let's get some, and Trump's also going to likely have a triumphant New Hampshire rally. And so it's time to start and Trump is also going to likely have a triumphant New Hampshire rally. And so it's time to start getting images of Biden out there at the same time to deliver his message and have a contrast message to Trump and the Republicans that goes along there. I'm assuming the location is because it's in Virginia and close to the White House. What do you think about all four of them doing it together? It look, they,

there is nothing harder than getting attention, right? It is. And so they're, they are out there doing everything they possibly can to get this very challenging media environment, this diminished press corps to turn around and cover them and give it attention.

And so this is one of those tools in the, in the toolbox that you can use is get them all together is it makes it seem different than just the normal Joe Biden rally that does not get the attention that a Trump rally does for reasons that are entirely unfair and very troubling, but are a fact. And so if they just announced that Joe Biden was going to be speaking on abortion in Virginia on Tuesday, I'm not sure we would spend as much time talking about it as them saying all four. They are sending a signal to us in the press and everyone else that this is a big deal, so pay attention.

And we will. You think they're going to do it at night to counter program whatever happens with the New Hampshire results? Should they do it at night? Does it matter? I don't know. I don't think it matters that much. I would hope that they would try to... He's the president of the United States, so if he holds a big rally with the vice president and their partners at night, the night of the New Hampshire primary, you would hope that they would try to, I mean, he's the president of the United States. So if he holds a big rally with, you know, the vice president and their partners at night,

the night of the New Hampshire primary, you would hope that all the networks would cut to that and show some footage from it. I mean, you would, but man, the Iowa ratings for the cable networks were so depressingly low that I'm not entirely sure it's worth it. No, I think it's, I totally agree with focusing on, with focusing on kicking off the general election, focusing on abortion, especially around the anniversary of Roe v. Wade. That's really smart. I do have a question for you. I mentioned earlier that Trump said today that presidents must have complete and total immunity from prosecution for any crime they commit in office uh which is an even more extreme version of the argument uh his lawyers have made in court they said presidents can be prosecuted

if they've been impeached which also seems silly i feel like it's important for voters to know that the guy they may elect uh thinks he has the legal right to have them all killed or is that just crazy or is that is that not kitchen table enough for voters? Until you get the price of eggs below a certain level, you cannot discuss this. No, I think it is part of the argument. And yes, I agree. And how you make the argument matters. I was looking at this when Trump's lawyers suggested that he could send SEAL Team 6 to kill his political opponent and not be prosecuted for it in court a few weeks ago. An infidels classic already. Chastain that our friends at Navigator did about Trump's first original indictment. And saying that no one should be above the law, even presidents, is a very, very powerful argument.

And so Trump arguing that he should be above the law is, I think, an argument that can and should be made in this campaign. And maybe Biden will make it on Tuesday. I don't know. You know what I bet another powerful argument is? I bet people don't like the idea of the person they elect president being able to kill them. I don't know. I'd throw that one in a poll. I bet it would go, I bet it would test pretty high. I mean, the thing is, it's definitely not popular to want the president to kill you, but it's going to be more popular than you think. Well, here's the thing is I'm sure people are going to test like, do you care about the president or the politicians in general arresting or indicting political opponents? And because no one really likes politicians anyway, I'm sure that would not be that popular.

But I do think that the way to frame this is Donald Trump is basically out there saying, I can do anything I want to people who disagree with me. Can be Joe Biden, can be Joe Schmo. He thinks he is above the law and can use the powers of the presidency to do anything he wants. And if you do not agree with him, even if you did work, look at the way Donald Trump has treated the people who work for him, the people who are his loyalists. It's not even like he loves Republicans and hates Democrats. If you cross donald trump at all he uh he's coming for you and now he thinks he is completely above the law and can do whatever the fuck he wants infinite crimes that's that's what donald trump thinks he deserves i don't know

i would make that case he tried to murder his vice president just this one he did so i i would i would get on that i hope and i realize it's it's tough, too, because I'm sure the Biden folks don't want to comment on the cases. I know they have to be careful of that. But I think when when Donald Trump is truthing all kinds of crazy shit that is outside the what's happening in the courtroom. And I think that's very much fair game. Can I say one more thing about this before you go? Yeah, please. Is, you know, we had our New Year's resolution episode a few weeks ago. And one of my New Year's resolutions was to improve my attention span. And then about 10 days after that, I set up Twitter alerts for this bot that sends you, that posts on Twitter, Trump's truth social posts. Oh, yeah. You set up an alert for that?

Yeah. Oof. Well, John, this is my job and I take it seriously. I follow that account. I'm so glad someone finally did it because trying to find the truth on truth social is a pain in the ass. Well, what my takeaway from that, other than the possible damage I'm doing to my brain from it, is people need to know what's happening on there. It's wild. Yeah. MSNBC, CNN. This is what I'm saying. It's not being covered. No, it's not being covered. Now that Trump is the presumptive, essentially the presumptive,

after Tuesday, the presumptive nominee of the Republican party, every one of those true socials should be covered as his tweets were covered from 2015 till the day he was kicked off Twitter the first time. We're going to be sleepwalking into a second Trump term because no one wanted to platform him. We are all sleepwalking on it. It was like Jamie Dimon the other day talking about how Trump's probably going to win. Yeah. He's going to get a huge tax cut, so I'm sure he wants that. Yeah.

I mean, it's just people should file. I'm not a huge tax cut, so I'm sure he wants that. Yeah, I mean, it's just... People should file... I'm not saying people... You don't have to go on Truth Social. Check out this Twitter account. See what's happening there. If you're a reporter, report on it. Because voters should know that he is crazier than ever.

And that is not coming through in the coverage. Believe it or not, there's still a loose attempt at governing happening in Washington right now. It looks like Congress just barely avoided a government shutdown by passing yet another temporary funding bill that's going to give them until March 1st and March 8th to fully fund the government. That's going to be a fun week. State of the Union March 7th and then a government funding deadline on March 8th. Good times. funding deadline on March 8th. Good times. Meanwhile, all four congressional leaders met with Biden on Wednesday to see if they could agree on an aid package to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan in exchange for stricter border and immigration policies. Win-win all around. Democrats left the meeting saying they were optimistic about a deal. Some of the reporting was a little less positive. And this is what we heard from Speaker Mike Johnson on Laura Ingraham show. The president actually just got off the phone with me right before the show.

And he said he has spoken to you about this deal and that he is against it. And he urged you to be against this deal. He was extremely President Trump was extremely adamant about that. Your reaction to that, given the fact that look,, he already, he knows how to do this enforcement stuff. You don't need some new bill coming out of the Senate to get the border enforced. Yeah, President Trump is not wrong. He and I have been talking about this pretty frequently. I talked to him night before last about the same subject.

We don't have the text of whatever the Senate has cooked up yet. And so we have to reserve judgment, I think, to see what comes out of it. Dad says no. Sorry. Boss says I can't do it. And you know what? He doesn't. Bill's out of Congress. He doesn't need any laws. He's got total and complete immunity. This guy is a dictator. He's going to come into office. He's going to fix the border. He's going to need Congress. He's probably going to dissolve Congress by the time he gets there. Trump followed up with a, I'm sure you know, I don't know who am I telling you? I'm not telling you anything you don't know. You've got the alert. Trump followed up with a truth where he did say he admitted that

he told Mike Johnson not to cut a deal unless it was perfect. We haven't talked about this in a while, but what do you think the chances are something gets done at this point? And then how do you think Biden and the Democrats should handle the politics around this? I mean, there is always a chance that Trump and Mike Johnson's statement simply just creates more negotiating leverage for the Republicans. So I think this is going to work in two steps. I think that the Senate Republicans and the White House and the Senate Democrats are thinking about this separate and apart from the House. They're going to get the best deal they can from both people's perspective. And then they're just going to hope something good happens in the House. That seems unlikely, I would say, that that happens. It doesn't seem great. And someone once said to me that

there are two kinds of politics in the Congress. There's micropolitics and macropolitics. And the micropolitics are the politics of how you keep your speakership, how you move up in leadership, how you keep the caucus happy. And then the macropolitics are how you win, control the house, what's going to happen to midterms, electionists, national political trends. are how you win control of the House, what's going to happen to midterms, electionist, national political trends. This is both micro and macro politics for Mike Johnson because the micro politics are he's already – he's got a – he just passed the CR, which he said he was not going to do. He stuck with the Senate with the deal he cut with Chuck Schumer, which he said he was not going to do. He has a majority of basically zero right now. He's got

no margin for error. Only one person can knock him out. And so he's obviously going to have to, it seems impossible in that scenario, he's going to cut some sort of border deal that does not make the Freedom Caucus happy. Like you can upset the Freedom Caucus on government funding or debt ceiling of these things maybe once or twice, but you can never upset them on immigration. That's the one thing that you cannot do. And so that seems unlikely. From a macro perspective, it seems very clear that Republicans would rather have a crisis at the border for the election than solve the problem. And that's definitely what Trump is thinking. If Trump was thinking in terms of being a president, then it would be great to get this off his plate and just have to deal with it.

And be confident that he and Fox News could lie enough about the crisis at the border to keep all the politics of it and then have a solution waiting for him. But he plans on running on a crisis at the border, and he doesn't want to give Biden any chance to cut a deal that he could then say he did something good for the border. And so with that in mind, it seems unlikely something's going to happen. And some of the Senate Republicans that have been negotiating this deal have said that they'll never get a deal like this under Trump, because even if Trump wins and Republicans have the Senate, they're not going to have 60 votes in the Senate. And so why would Democrats ever decide to do a deal on the border when Trump is

president and Republicans control Congress? And so you've got a lot of Republicans, John Thune, Lindsey Graham, all these people saying like, hey, take this deal. This is the best deal we're going to get. But like you said, Trump and Mike Johnson and the MAGA folks, they want the issue. And if I were Biden and this thing falls apart in the House, I might go out there and say, look, I want to fix the border. I think it's a problem. But the speaker and Donald Trump and MAGA wing of the party have basically forbid Republicans from working with us to fix the problem because they care more about winning the next election. They don't care about fixing the problem. And that's exactly the problem with the Republican Party right now is that there is an extreme faction that doesn't want to solve problems, that just wants to play games.

That is 100% right. Get this deal. Help get this deal across the finish line. Talk about the deal. Announce the deal. Talk about the deal in the State of the Union. And then hammer, if the Republicans are really not going to, if the House Republicans are really not going to do anything, hammer the living shit out of them for refusing to solve the problem. And do that from now until November. And then when you're on a debate stage with Donald Trump, a moment that makes my blood pressure spike, That's a moment, right?

We had a deal to deal with this problem. And then you, because you were cared more about winning this election than helping the American people, you called up the House Republicans and told them not to do the deal, even though it was a bipartisan deal with the support of blah, blah, blah.

You know, like there was a way to do this. This would be a, the best thing for everyone would be to get a deal and get it done. And because you get to help on the border, Ukraine funding, Israel funding, the natural disaster funding, all of those things. But if the House Republicans block it, make them pay for it because it will help you against Trump. Yeah. And look, Biden, the issue he pulls the worst on is immigration and the border. And this, I don't think it solves the problem for him, but this is what he can say about immigration for now for an entire campaign, which is one of the great

vulnerabilities. And it happens to be not only the truth, but what Republicans have been doing for decades, which is every time we get close to comprehensive immigration reform, that we give a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and, you know, and strengthen border security, it's Republicans that end up tanking the deal because they would rather demagogue the issue. And I think voters will get that. We should stipulate. We don't know exactly what's going to end up in this deal. I'm positive it's going to have a lot of things that we don't like in it and are probably not great policy and would very much in a different world with a different Senate, if we different house have a much better deal. But also, Biden is, is operating in divided government, right with a 50 with a Senate with no margin of error and ability, he's trying to do a whole bunch of things. So the deal

is going to not be awesome. But if Republicans are going if it's gonna be a bipartisan deal, Republicans are going to block it, we should make them pay for doing that. Well, and this is why I think it's even less likely that something gets done because this is one where even if Mike Johnson, for some reason, decided to put the deal on the floor, unlike some of these government funding bills, I don't know that their Democratic votes are there to save him because I think there's going to be a lot of stuff in this bill that progressives don't like. I think Jayapal said that like a hundred members of the progressive caucus are going to vote against what their deal, they don't know the details yet of what the deals would be, but at least the outlines of what they're hearing.

And, you know, I'm not sure they should vote for it. Right. Though I'd have to see what the final details are. But so like, I don't, that's, it just seems very unlikely that this gets done. Another big win for Washington. Okay. when we come back, Dan talks to New Hampshire Public Radio's Josh Rogers about what the primary is looking like on the ground in the Granite State. The New Hampshire primary is this coming Tuesday, and there are now just three Republicans left standing. Joining us to talk all things Granite State is New Hampshire Public Radio, senior political reporter Josh Rogers. He's one of the smartest, most experienced reporters in

the state. Welcome to the pod, Josh. Good to be here. Give us a little picture of what it's like on the ground. The folks who were in Iowa told me that it didn't really feel like a typical Iowa caucus. It felt more subdued. They saw less activity from the campaigns. What's it like in New Hampshire? Does this feel like a normal New Hampshire primary or something different? It definitely is more subdued. I mean, today, five days before the primary, one campaign event involving a significant candidate, Nikki Haley, had a morning event. That's it. Dean Phillips is going to be at Dartmouth this evening with Andrew Yang, but it's kind of sleepy. And, you know, it's been that way for some time. I mean, Haley's been trying to marshal support and not doing terribly many events and not taking questions from crowds,

not really engaging with the media in the way that people in New Hampshire say is important, whether or not it still is, you know, who's to know. Is there anything you attribute that to? I mean, this is do or die for Nikki Haley. If she doesn't beat Trump here, it's hard to see another place where she does it. So why are people not campaigning at the same level? I don't know. I mean, she has been obviously trying to build a coalition that could beat former President

Trump here. And it's a tough go when you are not the most popular candidate within your own party. And so, you know, the fact that President Biden's not running means that independent voters, undeclared as they're called here, who can vote in either primary are, you know, probably likely to vote in higher numbers on the Republican side. But building your campaign around appealing to those people, and that's kind of what she has to do by necessity in New Hampshire, given Trump's continued apparent grip on the party base. It's hard. And, you know, she's had Governor

Sununu by her side, and he had been for weeks saying, oh, you know, Trump is done. New Hampshire is going to, we'll take him out. I mean, now he's indicating that a second place would be good here. So it's – we'll see. I mean, voters can surprise you, but you don't feel a huge amount of momentum. I mean, Haley certainly had been building momentum. I was out talking to voters yesterday and there are plenty of people who will vote for her, but whether or not she can catch Trump, we'll see. When you go to a Nikki Haley event, who do you see there? Because I know anyone who covers financial policy, you see a lot of the same faces at all these events. Are these established Republican activists? Are they

independents you don't normally see? What is that attendance like? It's a mix. I mean, there certainly are a fair number of Republicans, kind of the card-carrying variety, who are not necessarily wild about Donald Trump returning to the White House. You see some of those people at her events. You see some curiosity seekers. You see some Democrats even who don't want Trump to get reelected or checking out his strongest rival in New Hampshire, at least. But again, in order for her to catch Trump, it does seem that she's going to have to mobilize people who are atypical primary voters. And, you know, that's tough. I mean, she there's, you know, they've got AFP for AFP action out knocking doors. I mean, they believe that the

turnout for the Republican primary is going to be record setting. They ought to hope it is if they want Nikki Haley to keep this tight and maybe even win. But there are people checking Nikki Haley out, but she gives a very disciplined, almost rote campaign speech at this point. So if you have seen her before and you're not totally on board, you're not going to see much new. And so I do personally wonder whether she may have kind of crested in terms of her popularity some time ago. And the fact that you've had Trump here every other day, really going after her at this point probably doesn't help her with Republican activists. his plan is. He said he was going to South Carolina after Iowa, but then I think he's off the air in Iowa, at least DeSantis' allies are, but he's been there a couple of times. What is the nature? Is he trying to compete there? What's he doing? I don't get the sense he is. He's not spending any money here. His trajectory has been downward

for some time. When this race when, you know, when this race first started, there were some polls in New Hampshire that showed him beating Trump. And it's just, you know, he's just sort of deflated. He hasn't really connected with voters here. There are some conservatives who like him, but he's not good on the campaign trail. You know, there've been management issues with his campaign and his finances. But, you know, the case he's been making that I am a Trump-like candidate who is actually delivered is not something that's galvanized the voters he needs. Trump had professionalized his operation. He had precinct captains in every precinct. They're all wearing these gold MAGA hats to stand out.

How does his 2024 New Hampshire campaign compare to the 2016 version? I mean, that remains a little opaque to me personally. I mean, I've been assured by the campaign that this is really a top-notch improvement and that they were really just running on, as the state campaign chairman told me the other day, raw energy. And now they believe they've channeled it and they do have a more granular organization and that there are town chairs and county chairs and, you know, they're all in communication. You know, that's remained largely opaque to me. I mean, he had, you know, Trump is campaigning here a lot in the closing days, but he hasn't been here a heck of a lot. He has these massive rallies. It draws, you know, fans from across New England. And, but, you know, it does, I am told that they are more organized. They have had, they have the resources, they've had more time. I mean, whether or not he needs to be organized

is another question. I mean, I'm not seeing any indications that it's going to be really about, you know, flipping the switch on some sort of turnout operation for him. Yeah, I guess the ACD did that organization in 2016. The support seems to be there. And, you know, more than simply the support seems to be there. There is not, you know, kind of the autoimmune response that his rivals hoped would kind of trigger activists to, you know, ditch him. That's just not happened. You said the Haley folks are claiming there's going to be, quote unquote, record turnout. Is that what you expect? Have you heard anything from state officials about

what they're thinking? I mean, I think they're thinking that the Republican turnout could be high given the nature of this election. And it is weird with Trump running. I mean, there is, you know, he attracts people and he repels people. And some of that repulsion will actually attract participation in the Republican primary. So I don't know for sure. I mean, the, you know, I was out there talking to voters in Rockingham County, which is a place where Republicans, you know, tend to rack up a lot of votes yesterday. And, you know, I heard as much sort of dyspepsia about the coming general election that people see between Trump and Biden as much as engagement in this primary. I mean, I did talk to a fellow who said, you know, he was on the fence whether

he was going to vote to Santas or Trump. And, you know, I talked to plenty of people who complained about their mailboxes being clogged with Nikki Haley mailers and some enthusiasm for her as well. But there is a sense, and we'll see if it's true, that, you know, there's not going to be much suspense in this on Tuesday. I mean, maybe Haley gets close. I mean, it's not impossible that she wins, I mean, given the electorate. But it seems like a stretch. It feels like a stretch. And she doesn't really seem to be going for it. I mean, you know, this is a New Hampshire primary where there will not have been a debate in the entire week between Iowa and New Hampshire. And you don't feel it out there on the streets. Whether or not you need to feel it on the streets, I don't know. There may be ways to mobilize voters that are happening and will be effective.

There should be a decent turnout. Yeah, that was the big question in Iowa. There were a lot of people were saying, we're not feeling it in the streets. It doesn't feel like 2020 or 2016 or 2008 or whatever. And the thought was maybe it's happening digitally, but then turnout was down 40%. I mean, the weather was pretty rough too. Yeah. Right. This will be a little test of whether – the New Hampshire turnout will be an interesting test of whether that was the weather or there was really sort of a disengagement for whatever reason because Trump's going to win or – that'll be a question.

Let's talk a little bit about the Democratic side. Sure. You know, that'll be a question. Let's talk a little bit about the Democratic side. I want to ask you about, there was a lot of thought when the DNC changed the New Hampshire primary and took its delegates away, that that would have a real impact on President Biden in the general election. Are you hearing a lot of blowback towards President Biden over that? I mean, some in the most kind of parochial manner imaginable that, you know, he took away our primary, how could we possibly support him? But, you know, it's hard to know. I mean, I think that, you know, the Biden folks perhaps rightfully make the calculation that the specter of Trump will motivate people to turn out in a way that might be more pronounced than anything they could gin up

on their own. But, you know, they have, you know, regardless of the fact that he's not on the ballot here, they have, you know, coincidentally, clearly sent up a number of cabinet officials in the last few weeks to, you know, sort of tout things that have happened in New Hampshire on Biden's watch. The Right in Biden campaign is, you know, bringing in people from across the country, either via Zoom and Skype and the like, or with real events. I attended an organizing event with Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey, and I will say I was surprised at the number of people who were there, as were party officials who were there. But we'll see. New Hampshire has been a good state for Democrats in general elections.

I mean, the last Republican to win here was was George W. Bush the first time. And so it's a state that that, you know, Democrats have done pretty well. And but, you know, there are some people who are worried that the trickle down effect of a lack of organization early. And that's that's one of the motivations of the right in Biden people. And, you know, they also have this motivation that, you know, if New Hampshire folks prove that they are really dedicated to President Biden and to participation and to doing their civic duty that, you know, perhaps the DNC might end up reversing course in the future, which, you know, strikes me as farfetched, but like, that's what they're telling themselves. And they're saying, you know, New Hampshire, you know, we'll have a-fetched, but, like, that's what they're telling themselves, and they're saying, like, you know, New Hampshire, you know, will have a story to tell about what

happened here. So, we'll see. I mean, a lot of these folks, you know, the New Hampshire primary is kind of a baby boomer thing in some ways. Like, you think about the politicians who, their families, you know, the Sununu's, you know, Gene Shaheen, you know, those people in some ways made by their participation in the New Hampshire primary. And for people of that generation, you know, this is a very big deal. One thing I've been trying to figure out whether people who aren't really intimately involved and may even have a financial stake in the primary being first here, how much they care. And it's unclear to me how many people who aren't really involved in politics much care about this. Talk to me a little bit about what Dean Phillips is trying to accomplish up in New Hampshire,

even though there are no delegates that he can win there. Well, I mean, he said he's trying to, you know, send a message. And when he, you know, he, I mean, his name does come up. He's been campaigning. I mean, sometimes it's a little pathetic, the lack of response he's getting. I mean, but, and, you know, maybe he'd be getting a more of a response if he was, you know, arguing more on a more policy grounds or some sort of like ideological basis why he should be running. I mean, just like arguing about the citing polls that suggest that, you know, President Biden could be weak in November, you know, doesn't seem to be moving people.

I mean, I don't know. I mean, Dean Phillips' personal story, I mean, he seems – I don't know. Like when I first met him, I was like, oh, he would be a fine board member for New Hampshire Public Radio. I didn't say, oh, there's a president kind of thing. He's out there trying, but it's odd. There's been this, there've been some national stories about an effort among some liberal donors and activists to try to get people to write ceasefire on the ballot in protest of what's happening in Gaza. Have you heard anything about that on the ground in New Hampshire? Well, I mean, I've heard about it. I have not spoken with enough people to know how much. I mean, the person behind this is a man named Andrew Walensky. He ran for governor a couple of years ago.

He's a sort of liberal lawyer and activist. And, you know, he was a Sanders supporter. He's trying to do this. I haven't done reporting to know how much there is there. But, you know, it is an interesting wrinkle. I mean, one thing that our election officials are gearing up for is like how to count the projected number of write in ballots in a timely fashion. And the Secretary of State has said, oh, you know, Republican results will be allowed to be announced before Democrat results. If the counting goes long, I mean, they believe

they can count all these things. And I don't know whether, you know, the ceasefire thing will complicate that in any way. But, you know, and it's also hard to know what the perception needs to be for what sort of number does Biden need to get? I mean, you know, obviously, people like to invoke, you know, LBJ and Eugene McCarthy. But, you know, the right in Biden, people say, oh, you know, all he needs to do is win. And this is about pointing us towards November, as much as it is what happens here, particularly given that there will be no delegates awarded per the DNC. Well, as someone who is scheduled to record a podcast after the race is called, I'm glad to know that there's a chance they're not going to let the write-in campaign slow down the calling

of the Republican results. Josh, thanks so much for joining us. And we hope to talk to you again soon. All right. Good luck. Thanks to Josh Rogers for joining us today. Everyone have a fantastic weekend and we'll talk to you next week. Bye, everyone. If you want to get ad-free episodes, exclusive content, and more, consider joining our Friends of the Pod subscription community at crooked.com slash friends. And if you're already doom-scrolling,

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