Pod Save America - Trump's General Election Pivot

Episode Date: September 21, 2023

With the first primaries still months away, Trump skips more debates and pivots to a general election strategy with a primetime speech to autoworkers in Michigan and an attempt to cast himself as more moderate on abortion. Will it work? Then, Politico Congressional correspondent Daniella Diaz joins the show to help make sense of the GOP’s shutdown shit show. Finally, the most divisive topic on Capitol Hill this week: what John Fetterman is allowed to wear. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email [e-mail] and include the name of the podcast.

Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau. I'm Dan Pfeiffer. On today's show, Team Biden tells anxious Democrats to chill out. Daniela Diaz of Politico joins to talk about the Republican shutdown shitshow. And Dan and I weigh in on what is by far the most consequential issue in Congress this week. What Jon Fetterman is wearing. Oof, gotta steal myself for that one. Alright, but first, even though the Iowa caucuses are still four months away, Donald Trump is already acting like he beat his primary opponents and the 91 felony charges he's facing.

He's now reportedly skipping the third Republican debate in Florida, and he's skipping next week's debate here in California so that he can give a primetime speech in the battleground state of Michigan, where he will pretend to be pro worker to an audience that will reportedly include plumbers, electricians, pipefitters, and autoworkers, whose union is currently on strike. Trump's also been trying to pretend he's more moderate than most Republicans on the issue of abortion, which is finally getting him some actual criticism from the popular Republican governors of Iowa and Georgia, as well as his sorry excuse for a primary opponent, Ron DeSantis, who hit Trump on the issue during an Iowa radio interview. I don't know how you can even make the claim that you're somehow pro-life if you're criticizing

states for enacting pro-life protection. So I think if he's going into this thing, he's going to make the Democrats happy with respect to right to life. I think all pro-lifers should know that he's preparing to sell you out. Sounds like Tiny D finally got his head out of his ass, Dan. Do you think he said that because his favorite podcasters advised him to on Tuesday's show? I'm sure he loves you guys. Just before he leaves. You before he's a fan, you think he's listening on,

on, on his way to his next event in Iowa? Absolutely. There is a, it is amazing that all of us at the world, ourselves included thought that Ron DeSantis could give a real challenge to Donald Trump with that voice. His head may be out of his ass,

but it sounds like he is broadcasting from a fishbowl you gotta think about i didn't listen i didn't listen closely enough at the beginning of this whole thing uh you know it's just it's it's bad it's bad so trump clearly heard this criticism because he then went back to bragging about ending the constitutional right to an abortion when he was in iowa let's listen and last year I was able to do something that nobody thought was possible. We ended Roe v. Wade. I got the job done. I got it done.

And it's thanks bridge too far? No, there are not. is that in 2016, all of Trump's opponents, they used ads, they used the media to try to paint Trump as soft on abortion by using a clip where he went on Meet the Press in 1999 and said, I'm very pro-choice. The voters rejected that then. Why would they fall for it now after Trump has done everything in office that the anti-abortion groups wanted him to do. And even if there were some voters, the latest polls have Trump up by 30 in Iowa. So you'd have to find a third of Republican voters who thought this in order to catch him. It's just, it's sure, you know, points for trying here, but it seems very, very challenging. The guy is a cult leader who is worshipped

and is the one who ended the constitutional right to an abortion. The reason that Ron DeSantis got to pass a six-week abortion ban is because of Donald Trump. And he's basically telling his voters that being against a six-week abortion ban is what he needs to help get him elected president again. And most of the Republican Party, most of the voters, most of Trump supporters would rather Donald Trump be president than get a six week abortion ban or even a national ban. They just they don't care that much about policy. They care about Donald Trump. That's who they love. That's who they worship. So I think it's just so silly.

The thing about Trump is every politician cares about power, but they pretend to care about policy. Trump doesn't pretend. Right. Abortion is only a way to get more power. And if being if he and he would just tell people being for a six week ban, help them when you before a six week ban. But it doesn't. So he isn't right. That's it. That's it. And they're like and he's like he's basically telling people respect my political judgment. This is what I need to do to get into the White House. And that's the most important goal, not abortion. And most of the Republican voters are like, yeah, no, we don't care. The big question for the general, though, is whether Trump can fool enough voters into thinking he's not as extreme on abortion as the typical Republican. We talked about this on

Tuesday. I said I am a little worried. Apparently, the Biden folks are too. Politico reports that the Biden campaign saw Trump's comments as, quote, a flashing red light. What do you think? I share your worry. You know, this is a point you make all the time, but it's the biggest chasm in politics. It's not between Republicans and Democrats. It's between people who follow political news closely and those who don't. And yes, abortion was the issue that drove the midterms. It helped Democrats win races we shouldn't have won. That could happen again. But it's worth noting that if the turnout in 2024 looks anything like the turnout in 2020, there's going to be about 50 million people who did not vote in 2022 who are in this election. And most of them do not follow political news

closely. They, in fact, may not have paid any real attention to politics since the last time they voted. And actually, I think because the way the media environment has changed, the less frequent voters are less engaged with political news than they have ever been in the past because they're no longer running into it in social media in the same way they before, in the local news in the same way they before. And so, yeah, he doesn't persuade all of them or most of them. He just has to persuade some of them. And that is a very real thing that could happen if we are not careful about it. They are also less likely to be either

very liberal or very conservative. And I wouldn't use the word moderate, but they have views on issues and a set of issues that are complicated. So they may be pro-choice, but they might not be so pro-choice that that's going to be the issue that they vote on. They may care about inflation more. They may care about immigration more, whatever. People are complicated and they get more complicated in their political views when they are the type of people who only show up to vote in presidential elections. I know there's a lot of like running around and cheering about special elections and democratic overperformance, which there has been over the last several years, about the midterms when Democrats overperformed and there wasn't a red wave. But again, you know, the way that the

coalitions of both parties have changed, we now have voters who are in the Democratic Party who tend to be to pay attention to the news more closely, who are more politically engaged, college educated voters, and they show up in specials and they show up in midterms and they'll show up in the presidential race for sure. But like you said, there's a whole bunch of other people who are going to show up who have not shown up in the midterms, who have not shown up in these special elections, but did show up in 2016 and did show up in 2020. So Trump, Trump not only said that at Iowa, in Iowa, he also truthed about it. He posted a truth that said I killed Roe. And then Joe Biden X'd that truth. I hate my life. And, and, and he warned that trump will go even further if he gets back to the white house

um i imagine that this will continue to be a focus of the biden campaign's advertising they've already run some ads about this about trump's record on abortion and what he will plan to do anything else you think they should be doing toots skeets, threads. Toots and skeets. I need more toots and skeets. I think it's good that Biden went after this. They should be opportunistic about opportunities to push back on Trump on abortion, to keep abortion at the top of the political agenda to make sure it's a salient issue. One tactical thing, this isn't necessarily for the Biden campaign to do, but that some political entity could do, is in 2012, one thing that the Obama campaign did that was very helpful was we knew from our polling that Republican efforts, including Mitt Romney's support of defunding Planned Parenthood, was incredibly unpopular with what we used to call our up-for-grabs universe of voters, women within that group who were either deciding between voting and not voting or between Obama and Romney. And so the campaign went up on the air at low levels on programs that over indexed on women viewers with months, just a

steady run of ads about defunding Planned Parenthood. A similar effort could happen here. It's not going to work the same way because the media is very different, but you could see it on Instagram or other social platforms, but a digital and linear TV low-level campaign about Trump and abortion that just goes up soon and stays up the whole time as a way to just make sure that he can't wiggle out of his most extreme positions. And what about putting Biden and other Democratic surrogates, whether they're politicians, whether they're celebrities, whoever, on like non-traditional media, non-political media to like get this message out there? Because, as you said, there's just a lot of people who aren't paying attention to or consuming political media, political news like they used to. And, you know, you mentioned women, which is obviously key. Also young people and wherever young people are getting not just their news, but just their content in general, getting some, you know, pro-choice surrogates, whether they're connected to the Biden campaign or not, you know, out there in those media outlets or in those places where people are getting their

content. It seems like that would be a good idea too. Absolutely. All right. So let's talk about Trump's trip to Michigan next week. So far, his only comments about the UAW strike have been when he said on Meet the Press that, quote, the autoworkers are being sold down the river by their leadership. But the decision to give a speech in Detroit is reportedly making some Democrats nervous because that's who we are now. Here's a political lead from yesterday. Now because that's who we are now.

Here's a political lead from yesterday. Now. That's who we are now. Yeah, right. Yeah, now it's in the 20 years, 30 years, 40 years. A long history of self-assured cockiness. Yeah, that's us. All right, so here's the political lead from yesterday. Some Joe Biden allies fear that Donald Trump is outmaneuvering them on the autoworker strike.

They also worry it's a sign that the ex-president has a more sophisticated campaign than in previous cycles and that Biden's operation needs to step it up. All right, before we get to our party's perpetual angst, what do you think of Donald Trump's attempt to sell himself as a champion of the working class, which, you know, in fairness, he has been trying to do since 2016 with some, you know, varying levels of success. This is a very savvy move from the perspective of trying to get attention because voters are just going to hear Donald Trump heads to Michigan to rally with union workers.

And that's that is a signal that he is unlike all these other Republicans who want to cut taxes for corporations and do all these other things. So in that sense, it's very good. Now, there's very good. Now, there's a little bit of a myth that Trump has had great success in peeling union voters away from Democrats. As an example, in 2012, according to the exit polls, Obama won universe by 18 points. In 2020, Biden won it by 16 points. But just simply seeming a little bit less like a corporatist shill than other Republicans could help Trump in a state like Michigan for sure. some success doing among certainly among white working class voters, but increasingly non-college educated working class black and Latino voters as well, particularly men. You know, and look,

he he's out there. He makes a lot of noise about the ills of free trade and foreign competition. And, you know, he says that the Democrats so that the message now from Trump and J.D. Vance and all those assholes is, you know, the Democrats have sold out the working class to the coastal elites in their base in Hollywood and academia. And it's like, you know, it's like shit that Republicans have been saying since the 70s. But now you've got the leader of the party doing it. And I will say that Trump's approach is quite different than his opponents. If you want to hear what a pre-Trump Republican sounds like on these issues, here's what Tim Scott had to say about the strike.

I think Ronald Reagan gave us a great example when federal employees decided they were going to strike. He said, you strike, you're fired. Simple concept to me. To the extent that we could use that once again, absolutely. I mean, wouldn't you rather run against that message than trump's message even though we know trump's message is a fucking lie and complete bullshit a hundred percent trump is you know i don't necessarily agree that from that original political quote you read that biden's getting outmaneuvered but this is evidence that

trump is running a more sophisticated campaign that he has in the past, for sure. I think he is too. Yeah. And we should, everyone should be well aware of that fact as we, how we think about this race. But one thing he is doing is he's getting back to his 2016 roots. And his 2016 roots is run right on cultural issues and tack a little bit left on economic issues from your party. Remember in that race. Rhetorically, at least. Rhetorically, yeah. Yeah. The yeah. The man campaigns like Pat Buchanan and governs like Paul Ryan, but he ran in that race. He said, no cuts, Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid. He talked, even though it went against his own white papers, about being against tax cuts for the rich and corporate tax cuts and wanting to close the hedge fund loophole and

all these other things because he understood that the Republicans had this working class base that they had to appeal to. And he lost that in 2020. He turned the whole thing into a bunch of grievances about himself, and he's returning to those roots. Whether it'll work or not, whether he can stick to it is an open question, but there are some troubling signs there. Yeah.

And look, he also had a record in when he was running in 2020. He had a record that Democrats pointed out where he stopped a minimum wage hike, restricted overtime pay, made it harder to join a union, gutted health and safety protections for workers, tried to take away health care for millions by repealing the Affordable Care Act, and then passed a big giant tax cut that benefited the richest people in America and corporations, especially those that want to do ship people's jobs overseas. So that was his record. And Democrats pointed out, and I do think we probably need to do that again because,

you know, I miss the days when Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan would brag about how they wanted to gut people's health care and retirement to give tax cuts to the rich because the rest of America is filled with lazy freeloaders who are just mooching off the government. They were honest about it, at least. And it's much more difficult to pin Trump down because he does have that record from when he was president. But again, a lot of people are just watching the speeches or looking at the headlines and not really checking out what the record was. And so I think that's part of Democrats job and Biden's job to remind people. Yeah, I mean, this could, this could be a savvy move. It could also blow up in his face because he is the most anti worker president in American history, and he's going to stand with workers. So if you kick if he leads

with his chin there, and you punch him right in the jaw, then it's going to not going to be a savvy move at all. But we determine whether that happens. That's something Democrats have to do. Well, speaking of that, there's apparently been a back and forth in the White House over whether Biden himself should join the UAW on a picket line, which is something no president has ever done. What do you think about that? He should absolutely go. Absolutely.

What do you think the conversations are like in the White House? Absolutely go. Absolutely. What do you think the conversations are like in the White House? Because I was imagining this and I'm guessing that there is some group of people who are saying, okay, the most important governing and political objective here for the White House is a resolution that gets the best deal possible for workers and gets them back to work. And that's good for workers. That's good for the economy. And then politically, that's good for them. Right. So that's like the ultimate objective. And they're probably like, well, anything that gets in the way of that, you know, may be good for a couple of headlines, but it's not good for the long term objective of getting a deal. And the UAW leadership is out there being like, we don't want politicians involved,

and they don't, we should say also, they do not like donald trump and so it's not working on the uaw what donald trump's doing in the leadership they have been blasting him but they're like and even if it's president biden we just don't want politicians involved we want to do this ourselves so i wonder if there's that faction in the white house that is like offering that caution though i i agree with you that he should go do it i could i could just stand here and do a one-act play of that meeting. I know exactly how it's going. I know, me too. That's the economic team is saying, we got to get this done. Lawyers probably involved too.

If we don't get this solved, it's going to hit GDP by 0.93% in the third quarter and what that would mean. And then you have other people who are saying, well, just so you know, if you do this, then the next call we're going to get is from the Screen Actors Guild and the Writers Guild to come to that one. And what about when the teachers are on strike? Are you going to go walk with them? And then there are going to be people who say, well, now it's going to look like you're responding to Trump because Trump is going to Michigan. I get all of that. And these things are never as easy as they sound.

We're going to get a call from the NLRB, from the National Labor Relations Board. They're going to say that you're not supposed to insert yourself. And this is the regulation. And blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Yeah. But the only thing I would say, and these things are never as simple as a bunch of podcasters just like shooting from the hip as I just did there. But the biggest challenge for Biden on the economy is getting attention.

He did it. He's done the right things. He largely says the right things, but no one hears him. This would be one of the rare high profile moments that people who do not watch CNN and listen to Pod Save America would actually know about. So you got to take it. And that's really what I think these next few months are between this and the shutdown. These are the most high leverage moments he's going to have to change the political trajectory on the economy and perhaps himself that he's going to get until the campaign kicks

off. And you've got to take them. You've got to roll the dice. You need a high variance strategy here. It's risky, but I think it's worth doing. Now, a few weeks ago, you and I talked about some of the Democratic anxiety over the fact that Biden was not really mentioning Trump all that much and was not focusing on Trump. And that's because, you know, there's still a Republican primary playing out and it's still early and he's got plenty of time. Well, now we have Donald Trump who is looking past the primary and now focusing almost exclusively on Joe Biden because he's, you know, 30, 40 points ahead of all of his rivals and he's skipping the debates and all that kind of stuff. Do you still think that Biden should ignore Trump or is it, is it time to start the general here? Cause I kind of think it's time to start the general. I think it's time to start the general,

but I don't think that means that every day Joe Biden has to talk about Donald Trump. I think he should be opportunistic about it. I think Trump, whether Biden goes to the strike or not, you could engineer a moment where Biden is with a bunch of workers somewhere or in some sort of environment where he gets asked a question about Trump going to Michigan. He just hammers them for his anti-worker positions. You're right. Calls them basically full shit without using those words. You can find some moments to do it, but you don't have to do it all the time. I do think for the outside groups and others

who are already on the air running pro Biden ads, we're probably getting closer to the period of time where you're going to mix in some contrast stuff with Trump to begin laying a foundation for the campaign when it really kicks off next year. Maybe Biden should call him full of shit. That'd get a headline. Yeah, I mean, actually, you know what? You know, when he what did he call Peter Doocy? Oh, son of a bitch. Maybe he doesn't have to go that far. But it would get attention. Yes. Guys full of shit. Speaking of Democratic anxiety. Here's a headline from Axios. Biden's team tells nervous Dems just chill. In true Axios fashion, the piece doesn't actually have anyone saying those words just chill. But it does say that Mike Donlan, Biden's senior advisor, has been telling anxious

Democrats that two issues, abortion and Donald Trump, will propel Biden to reelection and that the White House plans to continue its Rose Garden strategy with a three-pronged message that focuses on protecting democracy, abortion rights, and a resilient economy, including a historically low unemployment rate. And here's the kicker, quote, In those private conversations, Democrats have been struck by top White House aides' confidence. Some worry it's hubris. How did you feel after reading that piece? Better? Worse? Neither?

Just mainly angry at Axios. That's it. That's all. That's why we wanted it it's just it just seems like something that was engineered to infuriate everyone right i know biden tells democrats to chill the f out we got this and that's not no one said that that's not we know mcdonald that's not how he talks right no it's not he's a very soft-spoken mild-mannered man who is very thoughtful. Yeah, it's not. The point of the headline was to trigger Democrats who think Biden shouldn't run, is being complacent, who thinks we're all sort of fiddling while Rome burns here, all of that. And that's not – that's just not what – there's nothing in the Biden campaign's body language or activity that suggests they're being complacent here. They are on the air right now spending real money because they see the same stuff in their polling,

I assume, that all the rest of Democrats are reacting to in the public polling. Yeah, I was going to say, if they really are super confident and everything like that, show us your polling. I don't think their polling is that much different than what we're seeing publicly. And they're not out there unskewing the polls, right? Or complaining about it, right? Which is the right thing to do, whether their polls say something different or not, but still. Yeah, don't unskew polls, please.

I also, it said Rose Garden strategy in there. And I'm like, what Rose Garden strategy? Joe Biden's like out on the campaign trail all the time. And he's like flying around the world as president. Like, I don't see a rose garden strategy from them. That also was not in quotes either. Right. Yeah, of course. What do you think about the issues that they said that they're focused on and how those issues are going to propel Biden to reelection? Because I do think that we can yell about the piece, but I thought that's the piece, the part of the piece worth talking about.

worth talking about. Abortion clearly is going to be one of the most important issues in selection. It's going to be incumbent upon Biden and Democrats to ensure, as we just talked about, that it remains at the top of voters' minds. So clear there. The economy, Biden needs to improve his numbers on the economy. No one has won a campaign in modern political history without winning on the economy. Biden is trailing significantly on the economy right now. Now, the use of the term resilient in there is also something not in quotes. Right. Trigger me. But it is consistent with how the Biden campaign's advertising has been, which is, here's where we were. Terrible. We did these things. Here's where we are now. Now we got to go finish the job. And I think that's probably what they mean. But I've been really trying to find a way to write about the politics of the economy. And I've been digging into the polling. And it's so confusing. But one thing that is clear is that people are

still hurting. It's not all polarization. It's not all political. There's a Navigator poll out this week that shows that 91% of voters say that inflation is a major concern. And that's not all political. There's a Navigator poll out this week that shows that 91% of voters say that inflation is a major concern. And that's not all just Republicans watching Fox News or just are hearing about it. It's there are 85% of Democrats say that. The numbers when you get lower down the economic scale are worse. And so that says to me that even though inflation is getting better, people are still feeling the pinch.

And I think that is different than I think we thought the economic messaging would be maybe a few months ago when we saw consumer confidence go up and we thought maybe it was time to make the turn. And I think that there's going to have to be a little more balance in that. And now democracy really depends on how you message it. Because what are we talking about there? Is it about Trump and the big lie? Is it about protecting a political system that a recent Pew poll shows has record low approval? It's just that one, it's just how

they talk about that will be very interesting to me. Yeah. I mean, there is a school of thought that economic sentiment is based on vibes. And if Joe Biden went out there and Democrats go out there and talk the economy up more than they do, then everyone will say, oh, yeah, the economy is great. And part of that is based on, you know, Trump running around during his presidency talking about how it's the greatest this ever, you know, lowest unemployment rate for black people and lowest unemployment rate for Latinos and women. And I'm doing the greatest thing ever. It's the greatest economy in the world. And I don't know necessarily that there's evidence that Trump just talking up the economy is what made people think the economy was good. Because when you do, you ask people about the economy right now, and they think the economy is shit. But then you ask people about their personal finances, and it's a little bit better. But you still in that recent CBS poll,

I think to ask people like, you know, know, are you better off than a couple years ago than you were before the pandemic? And a good chunk of people are not better off. And then there's another good chunk of people who are the same. And there's only sort of a small percentage who say that they're better. So that's like, that's people talking about their personal finances and their personal feelings, not how they view the economy writ large, right? Which you could argue is more dependent on headlines, what politicians say, what you see on the news, et cetera, et cetera. But when you're asked a question about your own personal finances and your own financial situation, and if a whole bunch of people are

saying that it's not great, then who are we to tell them otherwise? I will disagree with you slightly here. I think Biden could improve his numbers on the economy by talking it up more. But I think that would be a false signal because the difference between Biden and Trump is that Trump always got more Republicans to say the economy was good than Biden gets Democrats to say the economy is good. So there's a bunch of people who are going to vote for Joe Biden who are currently telling pollsters they don't think the economy is good. Or even that they may not approve of Joe Biden's economic record or trust him in the economy or whatever else. He can improve those numbers. It's not going to improve him in the horse race. It's just going to get people already

voting for him to tell pollsters they think the economy is good. But the risk, the backlash to that is potentially taking these people who could react negatively to overselling the economy who are not in your camp yet, who fall into that persuadable universe, if that sort of convoluted thinking makes sense. of the, we have to get away from the question, do you think the economy is good or not? And get to the question, who is more likely to fight for you? Who's more likely to fight for the middle class and have, and Biden's message should be elect me, elect a democratic majority. Here's how we'll finish the job. And if you don't, if you vote for them, here's what they'll do. Here's what Donald Trump will do. And here's what the Republicans will do. And then the choice becomes the Democratic vision of the Republican vision, which we're going to be, you know, ours is going to be much more popular according to most of the polling. And it gets you out of the question. Is it good? Is it bad? Is it better? Is it not as good? Which

is just, you know, first of all, it's hard to answer. And second of all, it's largely dependent on the economic conditions, which we can't predict. And I would say to the White House's credit, they made that pivot two weeks ago. That is Bidenomics versus Manganomics. That is what they are trying to do. Right. Which is great, which is what they what they should be doing, I think. All right. Before we go to break, two quick housekeeping notes. The next Republican debate is Wednesday, September 27th, which means it's time for another Friends of the Pod group thread. Join us on Discord for live reactions and commentary during the debate.

friends of the pod group thread join us on discord for live reactions and commentary during the debate don't miss out subscribe to friends of the pod to join our group thread at crooked.com slash friends and maybe while you're yelling at the tv you'll want to wear one of crooked's fuck that guy t-shirts which are back and better than ever maybe joe biden should wear a fuck that guy t-shirt how are they better i don't know i don't know i just read what's in front of me someone send me one all right thank you run burgundy pick one up pick one up and let it do some of the yelling for you this election season head to crooked.com store to shop when we come back politicos daniella diaz joins to talk about the house republican shit show that's heading towards a government shutdown Shutdown.

The government will shut down in 10 days if Congress can't pass a funding bill. And thanks to the utter chaos in the House Republican caucus, it's not looking good. Here's Kevin McCarthy feigning surprise, surprise republicans would try to burn the place down this is a whole new concept of individuals that just want to burn the whole place down it doesn't work here to help us understand what the hell is going on on capital hill is daniella diaz who writes politico's huddle newsletter daniella welcome to the pot thanks for having me first question how much do you love your job right now and are you planning on sleeping in the next 10 days? You know, these are the times that I wish I had chosen something else to cover, but we're here every year. If you, I'm sure you know better

than everyone, it happens every year. This isn't too new for us, but there are times that I kind of wish I covered something like, you know, maybe a business beat, maybe something more nine to five. And I don't think to answer your question, I don't think I'm going to sleep a lot these next couple of days, but we'll see. I mean, I've already told my family and friends that this is my priority. And we don't know, you know, that's on how long the government shutdown is going to happen. We should do maybe maybe an open poll or something because it looks like it's inevitable at this point. Okay. So say you're someone who's just waken up to this news that there's chaos in Washington and the government may shut down

and they're wondering what the hell is happening. What would you tell them? I would say right now Congress is divided in the sense of the Senate is Democratic-led, the House is Republican-led. McCarthy, when he became Speaker, set a rule that if one Republican can oust him as Speaker, and all McCarthy's ever wanted as Speaker of the House is to be Speaker of the House. As a result, he is now having to cater to some of the most conservative members of his conference on a deal that could fund the government that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer would never support, and neither would President Joe Biden. And that is what we're witnessing right now happen real time, as the government is inevitably likely, I say inevitably, that's what we've been saying,

likely to shut down in less than two weeks. I want to start by taking a step back for people who haven't been following this lunacy. Back in June, President Biden and Speaker McCarthy ended the debt ceiling standoff with a deal on federal spending for the next two years that was designed to avoid a shutdown this fall. What happened? Well, you would think that that meant that this would have been happened a lot more smoothly as these negotiations started in the House with House Republicans who apparently are not aware of what happened, you know, back during the GOP limit deal. And when I say some of those House Republicans, mainly House Freedom Caucus

members who are refusing to support any sort of stopgap bill to prevent a government shutdown. But it seems like we're back at square one. You know, a lot of us are having deja vu of just a couple of months ago. It feels like it's the same debate happening again and again. These House Republicans that want to bring down spending, they want to bring down government spending. And I think it's really important to note for the audience, regardless of whatever happens in the House, the Senate has to pass a Bill 2. It's a Democratic majority. Whatever happens in the Senate is going to go back to the House. It's going to pass with Democratic votes and then land on President Joe Biden's desk for signature. So whatever is happening right now in this debate that we're seeing with these five, seven really conservative House Republicans to the right of McCarthy saying they're not going to support a stopgap bill, it doesn't matter. In the end, they're probably not going to support whatever comes

back anyway. This is really about McCarthy trying to keep his speakership dabble and bend to the needs of what these conservatives want so he doesn't get a motion to vacate when this all ends. And that's what we're witnessing right now. Well, see, that was that's one of my questions. Like, what I can't figure out about these House Freedom Caucus members who are the holdouts right now is like, why not just let any bill go to the Senate and then start fighting now about what they're going to let McCarthy accept when a bill comes back from the Senate. I was speaking to a Republican who said, the minority always votes no. The minority is going to vote no, whatever happens. So that is why McCarthy right now is trying to pass something along party lines that he can get to the Senate. But really the bigger picture is, as you noted, it doesn't matter. It's going to come back to the House anyway. But right now McCarthy is still trying to make sure he doesn't

get that threat of a motion to vacate. That's the debate we're witnessing at a minute scale here of him really bending, caving in to these House Republican needs. And he's still not winning. That's, it's not even working. As of this recording, I know that McCarthy is still trying to get the votes to pass a continuing resolution, a temporary funding bill with only Republican votes. And they're also trying to pass a defense bill. And how is all this going for him? What's the latest? Well, if you think of this is the way we think of the defense bill here on Capitol Hill.

It's kind of a preview to what we're going to witness whenever a cr comes through right this is a bill one of the 12 appropriations bills that these appropriators have all republican have that are all chairman you know on this really influential committee have been working on for months with the top line spending numbers that were negotiated during that debt limit deal and it still doesn't have the support needed to get across the finish line. He cannot get enough Republicans to even support that. And a lot of these Republicans we're hearing from, you know, Dan Bishop saying, I need to know, he's one of the ones that voted no multiple times that we saw vote no during this procedural vote that just happened moments ago. He says, I need to know exactly when every appropriations bill is going to be voted on. I need to know that McCarthy is going to give us

the top line number. But in the end, it doesn't matter because McCarthy has been doing all of this and they're still voting no. And it's really interesting. Everyone has different opinions about what McCarthy should do, whether he should ignore these guys and start having a conversation with Jeffries. Maybe that's already happening and it's just not out there yet. Or if he should, you know, take this and I might get a little too nitty gritty here. So just bear with me. But there is a separate deal that's being negotiated right now by a group called the Problem Solvers Caucus. That way, I was gonna ask. Yeah, sorry, I'm getting a little head. I don't know. That's great living and breathing for the past couple of days. But they both did an endorse a deal late last night around 11pm that would deal with funding the government. And it's about more than about 60 members, 30, about 30 Republicans or Democrats. And they think this is the way to do it. It's a bipartisan deal, but McCarthy has not

answered questions on this issue yet, and it's unclear whether this will get any sort of traction right now, considering McCarthy is still trying to get a stopgap bill passed, allegedly by Saturday. Nothing has changed yet in terms of vote timing at this moment, but it's a mess. I mean, it's chaos. And you talk to Republicans about this and they say it's dysfunction. You talk to Democrats about this and they say it's dysfunction. What's happening in the House right now

is quite a mess. What do you know about what the holdouts want? The handful who are still voting no. From where I sit, it seems like they just want to politically damage Kevin McCarthy and maybe even oust him as speaker, and that this is not necessarily about any specific funding or policy issues. Yeah, you nailed right on the nail on the head. It seems to be that there's five-ish Republicans,

most of them in the House Freedom Caucus, that will vote no for ACR regardless of what it's in it, regardless of what it looks like. A lot of them say they want appropriations bills. The time has run out. That's not going to happen before September 30th to fund the government for the year. And, you know, something to know,

and we've reported at Politico various times, is a lot of these guys are actually eyeing political futures in other roles. You know, Dan Bishop eyeing a attorney general run. I'm thinking of Matt Gaetz, who's floating a potential run as governor in Florida. These are people that have ambitions elsewhere. And that is a lot of the argument I'm hearing,

even from Republicans for why, and I want to be clear, Republicans that are aligned with McCarthy who are speaking about this, McCarthy doesn't really talk about this with us, but that say that this is just, they're not going to switch.

This is not going to change. And there's no way to get them to yes. And this is going to be, you know, this is McCarthy's dilemma. So there's no way the government stays open unless Republicans in the House sign off on some kind of bipartisan measure, right? Like there's just, there's no world where a McCarthy House passes a bill that only has Republicans on it that gets signed by Joe Biden, right? So at some point, whether it's now or whether it's when the bill comes back from

the Senate and a shutdown lasts for, I don't know, 20 days, 30 days, four months, at some point, Kevin McCarthy is going to have to talk to Hakeem Jeffries and figure out how to get a bill out of the House that is bipartisan. So at that point, like, how threatened is McCarthy's job? Right. Because like I could see Matt Gaetz filing a motion to vacate. But then what happens after that? Or like they they're just going to keep voting and voting and voting until they get another speaker. Like what's the long what's the long term play here? I mean, I think the long-term play is what we're witnessing happen moment by moment here by McCarthy himself. I don't know if he's really got a strategy beyond what's ahead of him, even in the hour that's coming. He is currently trying to keep his gavel. That is why he hasn't turned to hooking Jeffries yet. That is why he's not talking to McConnell or Schumer about what a deal could look like with the Senate and the House. That's why he's still trying to win over these Republicans like Matt Gaetz, who would

threaten to motion to vacate him. So to oust him as Speaker, it only takes one to start that process. And so I think what we're witnessing is him trying to figure out what will work for him long term so that he can keep his gavel. But in the end, it's going to be threatened anyway. If he goes, say, let's play a scenario. Say the House passes a Republican-led continuing resolution to fund the government for a month. It goes back to the Senate. The Senate adds Ukraine aid.

The Senate adds all these other measures that they want, that they can get a majority on. It has to come back to the House. Then the House passes it with a simple majority with Democratic votes at this point, because that's what's going to end up happening with whatever happens in the Senate. McCarthy will be threatened regardless. So I think right now we're witnessing him try to figure out how to prevent that backlash that could happen in the future. And I think the way he can do that is by trying to pass a Republican-led stopgap measure that has everyone supportive. And then he can kind of

throw up his hands and be like, well, now we have to follow the process. And now I can get Democratic votes to support this. We've seen this happen before, and it seems like that's what's going to happen again. Whether that'll work for him, though, that is the question. Is there a scenario where McCarthy works with, makes a deal with Democrats to keep the government open to pass a continuing resolution or funding bill that is to the Democrats liking. But in return, some Democrats say we will protect you if there's a motion to vacate. Well, I don't I don't see a scenario like that happening right now. Now, if there's a shutdown happening, maybe. Right. Yeah. That could change the circumstances. I've talked to so many

Democrats. They're really entertained by what's happening right now on the house side they think this is politically yes yes they think this is very politically uh good for democrats ahead of ahead of 2024 they think it's a good move right now to kind of watch and and i'm saying i've been putting in their words i've spoke to you know dozens upon dozens of democrats just did as a lot of them were laughing about what was happening on the House floor just, you know, an hour ago. But they think it's funny to watch McCarthy flail because this is, you know, a future campaign ad. This is a moment for them to win back the House. party of order under Democrats, and they can prove that they passed all this major legislation when they had all three, you know, they had the House, the Senate, they had the presidency,

they can show that they are efficient. And by watching McCarthy not even be able to get his party united on one thing, I think a lot of them are privately and some publicly, maybe not the ones in vulnerable seats, but really enjoying what they're witnessing with McCarthy having a really hard time keeping his conference in order. Yeah, I do think it's, at least personally, I think it's mildly entertaining right now. But if a shutdown happens and it drags on for a while, then you could see the politics changing after a while because a lot of folks who aren't following this closely in the country, which is most people, might just be like, why is why is Washington shut down? What's going on? They're all yelling at each

other. Can't they figure something out, which I'm guessing is what some Republicans are betting happens? Well, how is the Republican caucus reacting to or are they reacting to Donald Trump inserting himself into this whole process last night by basically saying that unless Joe Biden agrees to sign a bill that would force the DOJ to drop all the Trump prosecutions, they should shut down the government? It's just echoing what we've already heard from these allies of Donald Trump here on Capitol Hill. I mean, Marjorie Taylor Greene's been saying that for months. So he's, he's, he's insuring himself, but nothing really changes. It's not like more, what we're witnessing is it's not like more members are going to come out against this deal because he stepped in. If you remember, he was the one saying just months ago that the nation should default on its debt. And that would be a smart move politically.

And, of course, a lot of Republicans don't agree with that privately. They know that that would be very damaging because they want to win their reelection in a year and a half. And you're right. A lot of folks back home don't really understand what's happening. They're like, why can't people just work together and prevent a government shutdown? Well, really, it's because Republicans versus Democrats. That's what we're watching here on Capitol Hill. And that's how it's always been, really, it's because Republicans versus Democrats. That's what we're watching here on Capitol Hill. And that's how it's always been, really partisan.

Now, again, you brought up the idea of maybe some Democrats might help Republicans. Who knows? Maybe that'll happen later. Right now, that's not the case. Yeah. And the other difference here is usually Republicans at least try to say, oh, no, no, no, it's the Democrats' fault. Now it's like Republicans versus Republicans. to say, oh, no, no, no, it's the Democrats' fault. Now it's like Republicans versus Republicans.

And some, like I saw Mike Lawler, who's a Republican in a Biden district, go out there and say, like, these people are lunatics. What are they doing about his own party? And something, yeah, and something to really keep in mind about these members that you're seeing speak out. You know, you mentioned Mike Lawler. There's also Don Bacon. There's Fitzpatrick. They're really vulnerable members of Congress that won the majority for Republicans in 2022. And that is why they really see this as important to keeping the House majority for Republicans. They are so confused at why these really, and they say it as safe seat Republicans, are saying we're're not gonna support a stopgap bill when they're like, we won the majority for Republicans

and we need to support this because our constituents back home expect results and they've elected me so that I could bring some sort of reason to Washington. And now this is terrible. So that's why you see these members, and we call them vulnerable Republicans, centrist Republicans in Biden districts, because Biden won the districts that they, in 2020, when they, the ones that they

represent, that are, you know, throwing their hands up being like, we're trying to do something, and it's not happening, and we don't know what else to do. And a lot of those guys are the same ones that are working with Democrats in the Problem Solvers Caucus on this alternative idea. That puts a lot of pressure on Republican leadership in the House to move because say they can't do anything, then they do this other deal that could potentially get enough votes to go to the Senate. Well, McCarthy still faces the same issue of a motion to vacate because he didn't work fast enough to win over those five Republicans that will vote no for a funding deal. win over those five Republicans that will vote no for a funding deal. Daniela, thank you so much for covering every detail of the shit show so closely so the rest of us don't have to. Good luck over the next 10 days. And I hope you do get some sleep. And thanks for coming on the great institution of Congress.

grading the great institution of Congress. Last week, we covered Republican Senator John Kennedy's speech at a public hearing where he talked lube and strap-ons and sex acts and graphic detail. On Tuesday, we talked about Lauren Boebert and her date's premature ejection from Beetlejuice the musical because they were doing hand stuff. But today, the shockingly disrespectful behavior comes from Democrats. Both sides, Dan, both sides. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has asked the Senate Sergeant at Arms to no longer enforce the dress code on the Senate floor, which means that Pennsylvania's John Fetterman has had the audacity to show up in shorts and a hoodie, setting off a crisis in our democracy. Americans want etiquette and manners, and they expect more in their elected leaders.

I sat on a committee with John Fetterman, and I've seen him in a suit once. It seems completely disrespectful. This guy looks like he's in a gang or he's working out somewhere. Hoodie and gym shorts convey no respect. You don't dress like a slob and expect to be respected. It's just another step in the movement by the Democrats to, quote, transform America, to take us to a different place, and to take us to a place that is much less respectful.

This is just a small part of the decline of a new America. They, the Democrats, they do not like this country the way it is, never have. I, the Democrats, they do not like this country the way it is. Never have. I think the whole thing is horrible. I think it's part of the deterioration of this country. Civilization now celebrates mediocrity. You're pandering to the lowest common denominator and now existing is just an accomplishment. We need to be lifting up our standards in this country, not dumbing down our standards in this country. So I think the dudes should stick to the suits. This isn't a poker game or a strip club. I plan to wear a bikini tomorrow to the Senate floor. You know, this happened in the fall of the Roman Empire.

Dan, I just want to read from a letter that was sent to Schumer in protest of the new rules. Quote, the Senate is a place of honor and tradition. The world watches us on that floor and we must protect the sanctity of that place at all costs. Signed by the same Senate Republicans whose current pick for president is a criminal defendant being charged with paying hush money to a porn star

and sending a murderous mob to shit on their desks. But at the very least, Donald Trump was in a tie when he did it. So I guess we're good. Do you share their concerns about protecting the sanctity of the Senate floor? I have a couple thoughts. First, the lead-in that you wrote for this segment

is the best writing you have done since Obama's 2012 acceptance speech, maybe the second inaugural. I mean, it's just, you still got it. I know you don't pick up the pen often, but it's still there.

Second, I am embarrassed for everyone involved other than John Fetterman. I'm embarrassed for everyone involved other than John Fetterman. I'm embarrassed for the senators. I'm embarrassed for the people on Capitol Hill. I'm really embarrassed for the Capitol Hill press corps who's covering this like it's the fucking debt ceiling. It is the Senate floor. It is not a hallowed ground.

It's not sacred. It is a place that Ted Cruz is allowed to roam freely, right? There's nothing sacred. It is a place that Ted Cruz is allowed to roam freely, right? There's nothing sacred about it. This is one of the dumbest things in the history of dumb things. It is why people hate Congress. Talk about having obnoxious self-importance emanating from your pores. The whole thing is so absurd. Beyond the fact that just from a point of practicality, D.C. is a swamp. It is a miserable place

to wear a tie, which is a stupid thing to begin with. It'll hold it like wear a tie, don't wear a tie, don't care about what John Fetterman wears.

It's so stupid. I'm embarrassed for everyone. Two people I'm really embarrassed for, Joe Manchin and Dick Durbin, two Democrats who fell right into the trap of this self-important bullshit.

Joe Manchin, I expect that. I expect Joe Manchin and Dick Durbin, two Democrats who fell right into the trap of this self-important bullshit. Joe Manchin, I expect that. I expect Joe Manchin, Democrat Cafe Milano to think that. But Dick Durbin, I'm embarrassed for you. But it's also, you see some people who are like, well, but like, you know, in your workplace, if you have to wear a shirt and tie and someone doesn't wear that, isn't that a problem? And blah, blah, blah. It's like, well, yeah, if you have to wear a shirt and tie and someone doesn't wear that, isn't that a problem? It's like, well, yeah, if that's the workplace rules, the Democrats are in the majority in the Senate. Chuck Schumer is the majority leader. He decided that the rules are casual Friday every day if you want, or you can wear a suit and tie. If Mitch McConnell and Republicans take the Senate back and they want to institute a rule that you have to wear a shirt and tie, then people have to wear a shirt and tie.

It's a fucking democracy. Tim Miller made this point. If you're upset that John Fetterman is wearing a hoodie and shorts on the Senate floor, then the voters of Pennsylvania can vote him out next time. No problem. It's a democracy. What the fuck are you all talking about? Go fucking keep the government open. You're nuts.

You literally, this guy that's running for president that you're all supporting, he sent a mob to the Senate floor that you're trying to protect the, uh, you're trying to protect this, the sacred Senate floor. There was a mob that stormed the Capitol and then you voted to acquit the guy who sent them there. And now you're going to vote for him for president. A lot of the mob was wearing hoodies. And now you're going to vote for him for president. A lot of the mob was wearing hoodies. I've seen the footage. It is shocking.

It is shocking. It's not shocking, but while we're on the subject of dress codes, every Thursday during the summer, a bunch of Republicans wear seersucker suits. They look like they're dressed up as Orville Redenbacher for Halloween and they go to work. You know what? We should stop that. Chuck Schumer, take a stand. Fetterman has had some fantastic replies to this. He tweeted,

I figure if I take up vaping and grabbing the hog during a live musical, they'll make me a folk hero. I love that guy. And then he also tweeted, or he also said, I guess, if those jagovs in the House stop trying to shut our government down and fully support Ukraine, then I will save democracy by wearing a suit on the Senate floor next week. Good for John Fetterman.

And in a city with humidity that's usually around 90 degrees, that is no small sacrifice on John Fetterman's part. I will just say, too, it's also a sign that John fetterman is far more in yeah also like far more in touch with what people care about than most people in fucking washington because i think most people believe that the way you show uh respect for the institution and you show is is with your behavior with the way that you vote uh with what you do to improve people's lives, not the fucking clothes you put on your body. Boo. Boo to the Republicans and boo to Dick Durbin and boo to Joe Manchin.

I can't believe we booed Dick Durbin, but he earned it this time. And an otherwise exemplary record of public service. This was a bad moment. And Dick Durbin, no one's telling you you got to wear t-shirts and shorts, you can still wear your suit and tie that's fine like susan collins if you want to wear a bikini that's fine that's on you you can do you can do that if you'd like like probably people will make some comments but you know what people

will make some comments about john federman and he's still gonna wear what he wants stop trying to like have one set of rules for this is a Republican thing, too. They want like one set of rules for them, which is basically no rules. Hand stuff at musicals, talking about strap on and lube. They can do whatever they want in their private lives. You know, Donald Trump's probably paying for abortions. Right. All this kind of stuff. No rules for them. But for everyone else, they want to get involved in your life.

They want to have rules. They want to put politicians between doctors and women they want to ban books in your classrooms everyone else has to follow the rules not this republican party under donald trump you can do whatever the fuck you want yep every they they want to strongly regulate the audience behavior at beatles musicals that's part of the agenda. Anyway, I'm glad I'm glad we got that off our chest. I feel I I don't feel better.

I feel I feel lighter today after having done that. So that's good. All right. Thank you to Daniela Diaz for joining us and keeping

us up to date on the the other shit show in Capitol Hill that actually matters whether the government stays open or not. Hope all of you have a fantastic weekend and we will talk to you next week. Bye everyone.

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