Switched on Pop - Can Recession Pop predict the market?

Episode Date: July 1, 2025

Why does the economy look great on paper but feel terrible in your wallet? There might be a more revealing economic indicator hiding in your Spotify queue. "Recession Pop" first emerged during the Great Recession and exploded into playlists, radio formats, and DJ sets in 2024. From melancholy indie anthems to escapist dance tracks, the songs we gravitate toward during uncertain times might predict where the economy is headed next. Host Jonquilin Hill explores this musical phenomenon on Vox's "Explain it To Me," with Charlie joining in the second half to decode what our streaming habits reveal about financial anxiety and economic forecasting. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If you're tired of endless scrolling to figure out where to eat, same. I'm Stephanie Wu, editor-in-chief of Eater. We've just launched the new-ish and way better Eater app. It has all the restaurants we love, gives you personalized picks wherever you are, and serves up smarter search results just for you. You can find my list of the best places for martinis and fries in New York City. And save your favorite spots, share lists, follow editors, and book right in the app. the Eater app at Eaterapp.com. It's free for iOS users. Hey, it's Charlie. I've got this question

that's been haunting me, and maybe it's been haunting you too. Why does this economy look great on paper but feel terrible in our wallets? We're all desperately searching for clues about what's really happening to our financial lives, but what if the answer isn't in the stock market or unemployment numbers? What if it's hiding in our Spotify playlists? I recently joined the Vox podcast, explain it to me, to dive into this exact mystery. Could our music actually predict whether we're sliding into a recession? We explored recession pop, a term that first lightly surfaced during the Great Recession, but really exploded into playlists, radio formats, and even DJ sets throughout 2024 and

2025. I jump in during the second half of this episode of Explain It to Me with Johnclan Hill, but trust me, the entire conversation is worth your time. Check it out and subscribe to Explain It to Me. wherever you get podcasts, because who knows, maybe your playlist might just hold the economic forecasts you've been looking for. Liquor sometimes is sort of indicating larger economic trends. There is a super wide range of so-called recession indicators online right now. Hey there, I'm John Glyn Hill, and this is Explain It to Me, where we answer the questions that matter most to you.

Your call has been forwarded to an officer. automatic voice message system. Hi, my name is John Ribeiro. I live in Boston, Massachusetts. I work at a liquor store, and one of the things that my colleagues and I talk about is how we notice more people are using cash. And we always notice that when there's sort of uncertainty in the economy, it seems like maybe more people are managing to use their money by having it physically so they can

sort of keep track of how much they're spending instead of potentially overspending and treating their debit card like a gift card. I wanted to know what are the real recession indicators outside of like the things that you see on TikTok. That's a great question, John. And to find out, I reached out to journalist Hannah Aaron Lang. I am a reporter on the markets team at the Wall Street Journal. I've covered the economy and business for most of my journalism career and basically what I do now is watch the stock market every day and write about what it means for real people. So when you log on to your social media of choice, you know, you see all these people calling

things recession indicators, you know, low-rise jeans, cutting down on manicures. What's fueling these online recession indicators? I would say there's been some kind of bad vibes floating around the economy. for a while now, probably in some shape or form since the start of the pandemic. Can somebody explain to me in crayon-eating terms why I make over three times the federal minimum wage and I cannot afford to live? This economy is so bad. $33 for toilet paper?

We can't even afford to shit. I know the economy is getting worse and worse because more and more of my Uber drivers have been white. And this is terrifying. I think a lot of that has come from the inflation we saw kind of coming out of COVID. Everything that we need. Coffee cups, coffee, sugar, milk. Everything is a lot more expensive. Everything is infleaded.

When I go into the grocery store, it's sticker shock. It's not like it used to be. I used to try to buy one month's worth of groceries, but not anymore. Prices climbed quite quickly. And the inflation rate has come down a lot, then, but we're still looking at a higher cost of rent, eating out, other goods and services. And I think that's difficult for everyday people to navigate. Things have also just gotten more chaotic this year in general when we think about markets

in the economy. In early April, President Donald Trump announced this plan for sweeping tariffs on much of the United States trade partners across the globe. You see the numbers. The numbers are so disproportionate. They're so unfair. at the same time we will establish a minimum baseline tariff of 10%. Basically saying we were going to impose these huge charges on imported goods

that really spooked investors and financial markets, and stocks fell sharply. And as those major stock indexes tumbled, and investors tried to make sense of what this was going to mean for the United States, we started to hear people on Wall Street talk about the potential of a recession again as a result of the kind of economic,

turmoil caused by this trade policy plan. I think it's more likely than not we're going to have a recession. And in the context of a recession, we'll see an extra 2 million people be unemployed. We'll see losses in household income. What are some of the top so-called recession indicators being talked about right now? There is a super wide range of so-called recession indicators online right now. This can be everything from a skincare company selling eggs. The prices of eggs have dramatically gone up.

So the ordinary, a skincare company, said, we're going to take this problem on and give you an ordinary price of $3.37 for eggs. To press on nails coming back. Recession indicator. Princess nails, I haven't seen one person in long acrylic, stiletto, coffin nails. in a very long time. Everybody got some short nails on. To certain fashion trends, like women in menswear and women

in office wear. If no money, we can't have two outfits for work and play. When the business gets casual, the money goes out the door. Okay, the second bitches start putting on blazers and a collared shirt. It's over. Keep a lookout.

And they can range from the reasonable... So I'm a curbside chopper at H-EB, and honestly, guys, the number one recession indicator should be that everyone is getting spaghetti. To what I would call the more ridiculous, like sightings of Snooki from Jersey Shore. Is Snooki falling backwards out of her seat at a club a true recession indicator? Let's talk about it. Or Lena Donald leaving New York.

A recession indicator. Or the fact that Gweth Paltrow said on a podcast. If I'm honest and getting back into eating some sourdough bread and some cheese. There I said it. There's a super wide variety of what qualifies as a so-called recession indicator on the internet. Okay. Some of these indicators admittedly feel kind of extra. Do you think any of them are real signs of economic troubles? Well, I think that some of them could definitely be considered a more realistic piece of evidence about the economy, right?

So I think of one particular example. One of these posts about our so-called recession indicator was about the partnership, between Klarna and DoorDash. So the idea that people might be in a financial place where they want to pay for delivery or takeout in installments as opposed to paying for that upfront. So that could be a sign that maybe some folks, their budgets are tight, they're having to cut back on spending or, you know, they maybe can't afford to eat out as much as they used to. When we're talking about something like that, what we're really talking about is consumer spending, right? It's the engine of the U.S. economy. And it's a, and it's a lot of the U.S. economy. and if people stop spending money, that's really bad news.

Other times these so-called recession indicators are more just trends from the 2008-2012 era that have worked their way back around. I'm thinking of maybe low-rise jeans or like those knee-high converse sneakers that you can lace up to the knee again that were super popular when I was in grade school or big, dancey pop songs by Lady Gaga. Just dance. Keshah. These are more trends

from maybe the Great Recession era that folks spot working their way back into pop culture and see as a recession indicator in that way. Yeah, okay, most of these alleged recession indicators we're talking about, you know, they're coming from social media users and influencers.

But what about the experts? You know, y'all look at economic data, but do economists look at trends too? So this habit of searching for economic clues like this in unusual places is not a new one. And I would say that experts do it all the time. Of course, we have these really reliable, robust economic data sets like the jobs report, the inflation report, the PCE, something called the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, that investors and economists are looking at all a regular basis, right? But those reports can be lagging in that way. So economists and investors

are often looking at these kind of offbeat sources of data or offbeat trends. And former Federal Reserve Chair on Greenspan famously looked at sales of men's underwear, right? Greenspan looked at men's underwear sales as a key indicator of whether we're heading into a recession. With the idea being that if you have to cut back, this might be a place where nobody else is going to know but yourself. Now, Greenspan paid close attention to this because, according to him, men's underwear sales would stay pretty steady year after year. It didn't matter boxers or briefs.

But any time there was a dip, that would tell Greenspan that guys are pinching their pennies, not replacing old underwear. And to him, that would signal an economic downturn. Then there are also these urban legends of the Hemline Index. This phenomenon was first observed during the 1920s or the roaring 20s when they The economy was great. The hemlines got a lot shorter. And then the further they moved towards the Great Depression, the longer the skirts got. So young people online are definitely not the first people to search for economic insight off the beaten path, so to speak. But they certainly are taking it to a new level. Okay. So I want to play a game with you. It's the recession indicator game. I'm going to toss out some of these, you know, supposed recession indicators at you. And you tell me whether it's right to consider them.

like a plausible sign of impending economic doom. Okay. Press on nails. I would go with plausible. It could be that times are tough. You need to cut back. Maybe you're cutting manicures out of your budget. Returning to your natural hair color.

Plausible for the same argument. Statement necklaces. I would go with not so plausible. I'm not quite sure how that one could connect back to spending bad news for fashion maybe depending on your opinion but maybe not the economy. Declining to tip at the strip club. Blasible. Maybe folks have less discretionary income and they just can't afford it.

Also, you guys, don't go to the strip club if you can't tip. That's the whole point. Right, right? It's kind of like going out to eat. Like the tip has to, I think, be factored in. Pay those ladies. Okay, fewer meals out. Definitely plausible. I know economists and other experts that actually watch for this type of data. Whole body deodorant. I would say that's debatable. I think it depends.

Ooh. Are we buying it because the hot water bill is getting too expensive? Or are we buying it because we're too lazy to shower? I think like that's the key. Okay. And finally, paying in cash for your liquor. This one, I feel like I would need to see more data on, especially because we pay in cash maybe for potential discount, like to avoid a credit card fee. Are we buying less liquor?

I feel like I would need a little more context on that. Thanks for playing the recession indicator game. Don't forget to have your cats and dogs spayed and neutered. We're going to come back to you in just a few for some more realistic advice on. what to keep in mind when you're trying to spot an economic decline. But first, we're going to investigate the indicator that's making Kesha cool again. That's after this break. Maria, you have a podcast now and you need to start acting like it.

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I hope you'll join us. Your episodes drop Wednesdays on YouTube or in your favorite podcast app. Immigration may be Donald Trump's signature issue. President Trump is now targeting predominantly Democratic cities for ice raids and deportations. Dozens of protesters clashing with immigration and customs enforcement agents in Minneapolis Tuesday. We will begin the process of returning millions and millions of criminal aliens back to the places from which they came. But what we want to do in this space is talk about America and politics beyond the current president. isn't it? So what do most Americans think about deportation and border security, period?

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The recession indicator I've been wondering about is this idea of recession pop. I asked Switched-on Pop co-host Charlie Harding if our music tastes really do shift with the economy. We so are all looking for a crystal ball, and music feels like it's got. got to be it, because that's where we go to get into our feelings. So are our playlists indicating larger economic trends? I don't think so. Okay, that's interesting because lately there's been all this talk of recession pop. Yeah. What is recession pop referring to? Recession pop is a made-up after-the-fact genre referring to upbeat bubblegum pop music from the time of the Great Recession 2007, you know, sort of lasting 18 months or so.

But music that continues after that, because the economic vibes were pretty iffy for a few years. So we're talking about Black IPs. Lady Gaga. Ra, Ra, Ra, ah, ah, ah, Roma, Ramama, Gaga. Oh, la, what's your bad romance? Kesha. I mean, I really do think that Katie Perry's whole Uvra represents that era better than any other. we're talking about songs like Teenage Dream, a song which has this ongoing chord progression that never resolves that makes you have the feeling of the teenage life that will just never end.

You're never going to grow up and it has this wonderful nostalgia quality to it. Or last Friday night, the party that is the rager that you're going to go all out in, those songs had a sort of light, effervescent sort of post-disco, very poppy, programmed music kind of vibe. They were not serious, very tongue-in-cheek, and I just think that Katie Perry is the queen of that recession pop sound. It has to sound a little over-polished, really well-made, programmed music, meaning like drum machines, synthesizers, guitars in the line of like Nile Rogers from Sheik, but not nearly as well done. So like sort of funk style, disco style of guitars,

cheesy program strings in the background. And then the lyric has to be about some kind of, either it's like party, party, party all night forever, this night, that night, this night's never going to end, or larger platitudes about like being a girl boss. You said this is sort of a genre that people have named it after the fact. Yes. And, you know, it's called recession pop because there was a recession.

What else was going on in music during that time? Other than these, you know, fun, poppy, we're going to party all night long songs. Well, music was in a really difficult place. Music had been going through a recession for, you know, half a decade at that point. Ever since the turn of the millennia and Napster, the illegal downloading market basically had eviscerated the music industry. The world has changed for the Goliaths of the record industry, Sony, Universal, and... And others. The record companies say they will lose billions in sales because fans are getting their music for free. You know, it saw its revenues a cut in half. And so that business was in freefall to the degree that they thought that their future was in downloadable ringtones.

Oh my gosh. That is so funny. So the whole music industry was struggling and was going through a lot of changes. I mean, indie music was really big as the mainstream labels were struggling to figure out how to make sales anyways. There was a huge indie boom. Hip hop was going through a sort of bling and party hip hop era. There was a lot of upbeat music during these uncertain times. That's certainly true. I think it's important to note as well that during the Great Recession, there was plenty of music which didn't reflect an upbeat attitude.

One of the biggest songs of 2007 was What Goes Around Comes Around by Justin Timberlake. Or Umbrella by Rihanna. I don't think of those as upbeat happy songs. If you have to protect yourself from the rain under an umbrella, you know, this is more acknowledging maybe our deep upset of the national condition. So I think that even in the recession pop era, there's music of all kinds, upbeat, downbeat, sad, happy. And so I actually think that the genre is a very slippery one that represents a lot of different kinds of music. Are we hearing that sound pop up with any new artists now? Some people have said that supposedly like Chapel Rhone and Charlie XX are digging into that, you know, recession era in their new music.

I'm a little more skeptical. If Recession Pop were doing really well right now, Katie Perry's woman's world would have been a huge hit. And if anyone has followed, it has been a real stinker for her, unfortunately, a album full. of kind of empty, anthemic songs that have really underperformed leading to really poor album sales, ticket sales, and sort of a question of, is her entire career on the rocks? And so if she, for me, is the indicator of the original recession sound and recession pop were an indicator right now that we're leading into a recession, I would think that Katie Perry's new music would be doing phenomenally well, and it's not. Why are we talking about recession pop right now? Why are we talking about

recession pop right now. Why is that happening? Well, one is that everyone's looking for vibes of what's going on in the larger economy. But I think more largely, millennials are aging out of being cool. Oh, no. You stop listening to new music, usually between 25 and 30 years old. And then when you get into a position of power where you become a curator of culture, now it's your time to assert the thing that was good when I was young is still good. So this could be less about the economy and more about like those of us born in the 80s and early 90s, kind of having a midlife crisis a little bit? Absolutely. I think there was a huge cultural midlife crisis and a claiming of power. Okay, but Charlie, I will say I've seen tons of bars and clubs during these recession pop dance

parties. And I'm hearing like all these samples in music from current artists from that era. How do you explain all this? Oh, recession pop is very much a real thing. And it's completely. made up, which is to say that there was no such thing as recession pop during the recession. It's a term that was made up only very recently. Maybe someone used it on Twitter, but it's only become part of the culture recently. And it's absolutely a nostalgia-driven way of getting maybe those millennials who've got more disposable income than at any other point in their life, certainly, you know, since the recession. And maybe you want to get them back going out to

clubs again. Well, if you play their favorite music, you're going to get them out and dancing again. So I think the way that Recession Pop is being invoked is not trying to dig into the darkest moments of the recession, but rather remembering what it's like to be 19 years old. Why do you think people turn to music in particular in these moments? Like, what is it about music? I never quite understand these nostalgia cycles. There's like 10-year-olds, 15-year-olds, 20-year-olds. I do think that a lot of what happens is that the people who are producing music and distributing music and the people who are producing music and the people. people who are promoting music, they're, again, they are millennials. And so the producers behind artists who usually are a little bit younger than the producers and the songwriters, I'm not surprised that they're imbueing some of their influence. So I think some of it is just, I think people are just trying to relive their youth.

Okay, so our listening habits may not be the greatest economic indicator, but what can we rely on to tell us if we're actually hitting the R word? We'll find out after this break. Attention Spotify. Hasn't yet yet yetmine Absolut of Carolina Herrera. A fragrance intense with character Gourmet and addictive. Imagine a jasmine

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at record's and records. Okay, we're back with the Wall Street

Journal's Markets Reporters Hannah Aaron Lying. Okay, Hannah,

I'm pretty sure I know the answer to but I will ask it anyway. Are we in a recession? I would say no. It's pretty safe to say we're not in a recession right now. There are many pieces of the economy that are still healthy by historical standards. Yeah, I think if you asked anybody on Wall Street or in the economics community, the answer would be no. Okay, this brings me to a

question posed by our listener, John, who we heard from earlier. I wanted to know what are the real recession indicators outside of like the things that you see on TikTok. Another listener named Isaac called in with a similar question. I have a question about the recession indicators. There's all this talk about like the stock market and the GDP. There's all sorts of different indicators. So among all of the indicators, like what is the most significant at getting at like the daily, everyday person's quality of life? What are the indicators Normie should be on the lookout for?

Well, I think a big one that I've mentioned already is reduced consumer spending. And some of these internet recession indicators kind of get at this, right? When uncertainty is high, most of us cut back on the extras in our budget and look for maybe cheaper ways to cover the necessities. If that happens on a large scale across income brackets, that will absolutely slow the economy. And I think the big one for everyday people is the job market, right? When sales start to slow at companies, when the economy contracts, employers start making layoffs. And that obviously has a huge impact on somebody's life and would spur even more households to have to rein in their spending. Right. So I think signs of what I would call the labor market getting weaker, right, which is more job cuts, the unemployment rate going up. hiring, slowing even more significantly than it already has. And I should mention that an official recession can actually only be declared retroactively. So it can be hard to say if we're in a recession right now. What would you recommend people do to prepare for a potential recession? I think

that's the real question, you know? I think if I had to give one tip, you know, the biggest thing, I would say is probably an emergency fund, anything from three days. 12 months of living expenses saved. You really just want to have a cushion should something happen like a job loss, right? I understand that might be really challenging for folks to prepare or build up right now, given the affordability challenges we faced over the past few years. But I think being prepared in the event of an unfortunate situation like that, I think could be really beneficial. Are folks right to be worried about the economy now? Or are we actually in a better place? than we collectively feel like we are?

I think both of those things are true. Again, the economic data is relatively reassuring right now. The inflation rate has come down so much from where it was in 2022, right? And the job market, as I've mentioned, is still healthy. Unemployment is still low. The layoff rate is still low. The stock market has rebounded, right? It's back to where we were prior to the worst of the terrible.

of turmoil kind of starting, right? On the other hand, I think it's absolutely true that this has been a very difficult economy to navigate for many people, particularly young people, right? I think that, you know, if folks are sensing that this is a difficult economy to kind of get started in as an adult, like I think that there are very real phenomena to point to that that backs up that case, right? So I think it's both end, though not every recession indicator that we're labeling online is necessarily real by academic standards. I think the sentiment at the core of it is. That's it for this week. Before we go, calling all dog owners.

We know you probably know when your dog is hungry or lonely or happy, but do you feel like you have a deeper understanding of how your dog's feeling or what they're thinking about? If you're one of those people who uses the buttons to try to communicate with your pup, or if you have another story that illustrates your cosmic connection with your dog, send it in. Call 1-800-61845. This episode was produced by Hottie Mawati. It was edited by our executive producer Miranda Kennedy, fact-checking by Melissa Hirsch, and engineering by Matthew Billy.

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