Tech Brew Ride Home - Mon. 04/28 – The Prompt Engineer That Never Was…

Episode Date: April 28, 2025

Is Apple’s 20th Anniversary iPhone the reason they can’t quit China just yet? That Chinese AI Manus just raised a big round. Is Prompt Engineer the job title that never was? And what really goes on in those powerful, behind the scenes Silicon Valley group chats? Sponsors: Freshbooks.com Links: Apple Begins Breaking Up Its AI Team With Robotics, Siri Changes (Bloomberg) Why Trump can’t build iPhones in the US (FT) The Future of Gadgets: Fewer Updates, More Subscriptions, Bigger Price Tags (WSJ) Google is killing software support for early Nest Thermostats (The Verge) Chinese AI Startup Manus Scores Funding at $500 Million Value (Bloomberg) The Hottest AI Job of 2023 Is Already Obsolete (WSJ) The group chats that changed America (Semafor) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On April 4th, 2023, around 2 in the morning, a man was found stabbed multiple times on a sidewalk in downtown San Francisco. Hey, who did this to you? What happened next turned the story into a political firestorm. Reports have identified the victim as Bob Lee, the founder of Cash App. From Bloomberg Podcasts, this is Foundering, the Killing of Bob Lee, beginning April 16. Welcome to the Tech meme right home for Monday, April 28th, 2025. I'm Brian McCullough. Today is Apple's 20th anniversary iPhone the reason they can't quit China just yet. That Chinese AI Manus just raised a big round is prompt engineer, the job title that never was. And what really goes on in those powerful behind the scenes Silicon Valley group chats. Here's what you missed today in the world of tech. Mark German, Apple Scoop Monday, back to the manufacturing iPhones in India thing. Turns out there might be one big fly in the ointment for Apple. The big plans that they have for the 20th anniversary iPhone, quote,

As of right now, Apple has enough capacity in India to meet roughly a third of annual U.S. demand. Upcoming factories in India, including one intended to be the second biggest iPhone plant in the world, would help Apple get the rest of the way there. This past week, we reported that Apple is aiming to produce the bulk of its U.S. iPhones in India by 2027. While I do ultimately expect this to happen, it's far from a sure thing. There is no telling how the tariff policies will change tomorrow, let alone 18 months from now. But even if Apple does move the bulk of U.S.-bound iPhone manufacturing to India, it almost certainly won't cover everything. Apple is working on two major new iPhone models for the device's 20-year anniversary.

The original model was announced at the start of 2007 and released later in the year, so there's a little wiggle room around the timing of its birthday. That includes the company's first foldable and a new more glass-centric pro model, The idea that Apple would want to build those devices outside of its China comfort zone is slim, at least at the outset. While Apple's manufacturing in India has reached parity with China in terms of current iPhone quality, the 20th year anniversary models are extraordinarily complex. They'll require new parts and production techniques, making it far from a certainty that Apple will be able to build those outside of China. At some point, yes, but certainly not by the year

27. Keep in mind, Apple has never produced a major new product design outside China for the first go-round, end quote. Actually, to this end, the FT has a deep dive into Apple's iPhone manufacturing process, which uses around 2,700 parts from 187 suppliers in 28 countries. And what they found was that just 30 of those suppliers had zero presence in China. The rest of them all did. For example, the frame, the boring old aluminum frame, because the frame is made from a single piece of aluminum, a metal block is cut and shaped, it uses highly specialized machines to do that only available at scale in China. The close proximity of suppliers and manufacturers is crucial to Apple's productivity.

There are a lot of advantages to co-locating the activities in the supply chain in terms of speed and quality of communication and innovation in the product and process design, says, say, the professor at Santa Clara's Levy School of Business, it means that you can get deliveries very quickly and you can communicate with your supplier very easily. And when you put an ocean between the customer, in this case Apple and the component supplier, there is a disadvantage, he adds. This electronic ecosystem is why moving assembly to the U.S., quote, introduces inefficiencies, according to Wamsie Mohan at Bank of America. If everything is not made close by, it gets complicated, he said. And while Apple may be able to find alternative manufacturers for some

iPhone components, some are sole sourced. Taiwan's TSMC, the world's largest chipmaker, supplies the main processor. Although the company says mass production began in Arizona in January, experts say there is no replacement for the chips produced in Taiwan and South Korea, end quote. So really, this was ostensibly a story about the iPhone, but it's about tariffs in the end, right? And even if the iPhone gets exemptions, as we've asked before, what if you're not Apple? The Wall Street Journal has a piece looking at how, while big tech is largely spared from tariffs so far, small companies making devices like, I don't know, baby monitors, face price hikes, shortages, and degrading product quality.

Quote, on May 2nd, the de minimis trade exemption for Chinese imports whose retail value is $800 or less will end. Some products will see immediate price surges. Lofty, which makes a smart sunrise lamp, has about 750 units left in stock. The made-in-China lamp now carries tariffs totaling 175%. On May 1st, Lofty's sticker price rises from $275 to $450. Over $100 of that is to the U.S. government, says Chief Executive Matthew Hassett. Floss, an electric flosser, has about eight weeks of inventory left in the U.S., another two and a half months' worth is on hold in China, where the manufacturer is getting antsy for payment.

Floss CEO Samantha Cox says China was the best option to manufacture the $119 gadget. The country specializes in the precision assembly required to install the Flosser's tiny motor, battery, and other components, she says. Cox plans to store the inventory in bonded warehouses in the U.S. secure facilities that allow importers to defer customs payments. If tariffs go down, her product is ready to sell. No one's margins can take a 145% tariff, says Cox. Foss will only raise prices as a last resort, but will remove perks such as free shipping. Her immediate concern is whether the current

stock will last until Amazon's prime day in mid-July when there's typically a price markdown. That's a huge event for a product like Floss, she says. Should the tariffs stay high, there may be more empty shelves in a few months' time. Without a long-term policy in place, there will be no Christmas, says Grant Priggy, CEO of Smart Air Purifier Maker Mila. Everything you're buying today was imported pre-tariffs, but those warehouses will run out in the next 30 to 90 days, he says. Even if China tariffs end up lower, there will also be a massive increase in companies' shipping costs. Prigy says the 90-day pause on levies in countries other than China prompted a rush in shipments. Boat prices from Vietnam, where Mila is moving some manufacturing, went up 25% last

week, he says, end quote. Not tariff news, but it is news if you were an early adopter. Google says it will end support for first and second generation nest thermostats on October 25th and won't launch new models in Europe due to its, quote, unique heating systems. Quoting the verge, Google has just announced that its ending software updates for the first generation nest learning thermostat released in 2011 and the second gen model that came a year later. This decision also affects the European Nest Learning Thermostat from 2014. You will no longer be able to control them remotely from your phone or with Google Assistant, but can still adjust the temperature and modify schedules directly on the thermostat the company wrote in a Friday blog post. The cutoff date for

software updates and general support within the Google Home and Nest Apps is October 25th. In other significant news, Google is flatly stating that it has no plans to release additional nest thermostats in Europe. Heating systems in Europe are unique and have a variety of hardware and software requirements that make it challenging to build for the diverse set of homes. The company said, the NEST Learning Thermostat 3-Gen 2015 and NEST Thermostat E 2018 will continue to be sold in Europe while current supplies last, end quote. Losing the ability to control these smart thermostats from a phone will inevitably frustrate customers who've had NEST hardware in their home for many years now.

Google's not breaking their core functionality, but a lot of the appeal and convenience will disappear as software support winds down. The early Nest learning thermostats can at least be used locally without Wi-Fi, which isn't true of newer models. There's one bright spot for owners of recent Nest thermostats, though. Google says owners will be able to create and adjust schedules from the Google Home app later this year for the first time. Still, this type of phase-out is a very real fear tied to smart home devices as companies put screens into more and more appliances. Is 14 years a reasonable lifespan for these gadgets before the smarts fade away? There's no indication that Google plans to open source the hardware.

In a clear attempt to ease customer anger, Google is offering a $130 discount on the 4th-gen Nest Learning Thermostat in the U.S., $160 off the same device in Canada and 50% savings on the Tadu Smart Thermostat X in Europe, since the NEST lineup will be gone soon, end quote. They broke out of the gate with buzz like they might be a deep-seek Mach 2, but then we kind of haven't heard much from them, or at least haven't reached my radar. Nonetheless, sources say Chinese AI startup Manus raised $75 million, led by benchmark at a $500 million valuation, and plans to expand to markets including the U.S., Japan, and the Middle East, quoting Bloomberg. Manus in March previewed what it called a general AI agent capable of screening resumes,

creating trip itineries and analyzing stocks in response to basic instructions. Its service performed better on some fronts than OpenAI's deep research. Another recently released agent, the company claimed at the time, since then several companies from Bight Dance to Bidu have followed suit with their own competing agentic AI platforms. While AI agents require a certain amount of hand-holding Manus, co-founder, and chief scientist G. Yi Chow has said its product is truly autonomous. A slick video demonstration from the company quickly went viral, prompting a scramble for a limited number of access cores and earning the startup comparisons to Deepseek, the Chinese startup that rattled Silicon Valley in January with a capable yet low-cost model. Like Deepseek, Manus sparked questions about

the U.S. lead on artificial intelligence, this time in a product category that American tech companies see as a key investment area. Initial reactions from Manus users were mixed. Some declared it groundbreaking. Others said it felt half-finished. Last month, the startup began offering a $39 per month subscription and a $199 upgraded option in line with OpenAIs chat GPT Pro, though somewhat aggressive pricing for a membership service still in a testing phase, end quote. Speaking of potentially fading excitement about something, the journal says that prompt engineering roles, one of the busiest jobs back in 2023 when the AI moment first supernobud

have become obsolete as AI models, better intuit user intent, and comes. companies train staff in writing prompts. Quote, two years ago, everybody said, oh, I think prompt engineer is going to be the hot job, said Jared Spataro, chief marketing officer of AI at work for Microsoft. It's not turning out to be true at all. As part of a recent survey commissioned by Microsoft, 31,000 workers across 31 countries were asked what new roles their companies were considering adding in the next 12 to 18 months. Prompt engineering was second from the bottom, Spataro said, while roles such as AI trainer, AI data specialist and AI security specialists top the list. Spitaro said,

large language models have evolved to be more iterative, conversational, and aware of context. Microsoft's AI-powered research agent, for example, will ask follow-up questions, tell you when it doesn't understand things, and ask for feedback on the information it serves up, Spitaro says. In other words, you don't have to have the perfect prompt. On job platform, Indeed, the number of postings for prompt engineers is minimal, said Indy's VP of AI, Hannah Calhoun. User searches on Indeed, for the role surged from two searches per million total searches in the U.S. in January 2023, months after ChatGPT's debut to 144 per million in April 2023. They have since

flatlined to about 20 to 30 searches per million, according to Indeed. People were certainly interested in the role at the time, Calhoun said, but that interest hasn't been matched by actual employer job postings. Maybe they talked about the value of prompt engineers, but they weren't then actually hiring for that, said Calhoun. Squeezed by tight budgets and growing uncertainty with the economy, companies have been much more measured in their overall hiring in recent years. Companies such as insurer Nationwide, Workwear Brand Carhart, and Insurance Company New York Life all said they've never hired prompt engineers, but instead found that, to the extent better prompting skills are needed. It was an expertise that all existing employees could be

trained on. Nationwide, for example, has rolled out a company-wide AI training program for all employees with prompt engineering being but one of the most popular courses within it, said Chief Technology Officer Jim Fowler. So whether you're in finance, HR, or legal, we see this becoming a capability within a job title, not a job title to itself, he said, end quote. Finally today, top of tech meme for the last 24 hours has been a story from Ben Smith at Semaphore, taking a look at the network of group chats that surged in 2020 and have only grown over the last several years as a place where Silicon Valley Insiders meet and chat, often revolving around Mark Andresen, but also podcaster Eric Torrenberg, who, by the way, his podcast was just last

week sort of aquired by A16Z. This is one of those stories that I kind of debated covering, because is it too inside baseball? Is it maybe too gossipy rather than actually newsy? I have a link to the piece at the end of the show notes today, so read that if you want the Goss, but since Ben Smith is a friend of the pod, I thought the way I'd cover it would be to get Ben on the phone real quick and ask him about it. Ben Smith, thanks for popping on the pod real quick. Yes, fun to pop. Thank you for having me.

So I know you're not going to tell me who it was that gave you access to the various group chats that you mentioned in the piece, but I'm curious what you thought the motivation was for people to share with you the existence of chats like this. Well, you know, I had a couple of leaked screenshots. Honestly, not that much because they use disappearing messages. And I, but I was actually surprised how many people were willing to talk to me on the record or kind of in great detail on background about these chats, you know, that have been a huge, but it's really, I think it's been a huge part of the lives of lots of powerful people and not powerful people

who are, you know, shaping American culture over the last five years. And I think people feel proud about them. They feel honestly, like, really sentimental. I think everybody realizes that it's an era that's sort of coming to a close, partly as Trump really divides this community. And I think a lot of them look back, you know, this having been, I mean, one of them described it to me as the Republic of Letters. A lot of them invoke Parisian salons. I mean, I do think the Parisian salons were probably more fun. Well, that's kind of what I wanted to talk about.

Like you mentioned Journalist, which was sort of like a left wing sort of news served from like 15 years ago. Central left. Central left. Right. And so one of the things that I was thinking about is these things never stay secret forever. But also, and I'm going to push back a bit, I kind of feel like these things are everywhere. I don't know that this is coming to an end. Like, in a way, you could say this is sort of like that astronaut always has been meme. But I find it, and I find it funny how surprised people in North America are that these group chats exist. Because I feel like in Europe, they've had entire governments brought down by group chats.

scandals for years. But I feel like this is the mode for powerful people to commiserate these days. Oh, for sure. I don't mean the group chats or group chats about powerful people coming from in. This specific network of sort of center-right, anti-woke, pro-Trump chats is coming to an end because about half the people in them are no longer pro-Trump and are like, wait a second, how did I get into this kind of group think world where I got to, you know, and so there's these bitter, bitter disagreements now, which are not where, you know, it's a lot. It's Yeah, so the group think is sort of shattering. No, I mean, I think that there have always been these kind of inside conversations,

whether it was like the boys on the bus or letters in the 17th century or group chats. Now, I do think disappearing messages. I do think real privacy makes a difference, actually. Like, I think we're, most so interesting of doing this story is that virtually none of this is preserved. And I think that's basically a good thing. I mean, it's, you know, spoken, it has a little more the character of spoken conversation. than this sort of weird era we've had in which every stray thought has been, you know, documented forever. Right. And like, that's what I'm saying. Like, if somebody listening to this, your CEO has a group chat that you don't know about.

Like, we've heard whispers for years that, like, the C suite at major tech companies have completely exclusive lockdown messaging systems. I even remember interviewing somebody about a company once where they're like, all of the real stuff goes down on like a CC email thread that's been running for years. because the CEO only uses email to do work, you know? Totally. But, like, the idea that Signal and these sorts of group chats, like, it's not just the Signalgate stuff. Like, this is where increasingly, like, a level of powerful or famous person, they feel they need this sort of space for themselves.

Yeah, but, yes, that's certainly true. And Signalgate was just a reflection of the fact that they're all in Signal all the time, shooting emojis at each other. Oh, but I mean, I do think that that sort of period after 2020 when social media was really hot and very progressive chased a lot of people who, you know, disagreed and were scared to disagree into more private spaces. But one of the people who's in these big group chat, one of the big group chat said to me that was so interesting was that that now the thing that you're afraid to express online is criticism of Donald Trump. and that the people who are critical of Trump in the group chats are keeping that in the group chat because they don't want professional or other consequences for criticizing Trump. One of the things that I think Silicon Valley folks will recognize reading between the lines of your piece

is sort of this is where things come from. I'm thinking about group chats for VCs and stuff like that, especially investing as a very group think sort of activity. But like I remember that whole thing. Silicon Valley Bank weekend. Like if, looking at it from the outside, it's like,

how come somebody, everybody always suddenly woke up and was on the same page freaking out? It's because of chats like this. Like where does seem, from the outside, Lex Freeman or Dorcas Patel seemingly comes out of nowhere, but suddenly can get interviews with the most powerful people in the valley.

It's these group chats. It's sort of this community. They literally were the vehicle for a bank run. Right. Which is the ultimate kind of herd mentality group think. thing. And I think that's, you know, that's, to me, that's the danger of them, that you can really wind up in these bubbles and also wind up with this feeling. And I, I was in journalists, and, you know, I was, I'm kind of of the center, not, wasn't really partisan, but felt it a little.

We're like, oh, these are my friends and they're on my team. And so we're going to work out our disagreements, and we can have honest, just an open disagreement, inside. But in the outside, we are, you know, and I never felt this exactly, but felt the pull. We are rapid partisans who defend each other to the death. And actually, Balaji, Srinivasan, and Joe Lonsdale had a totally normal argument that I quote in the piece. And when I reached out to them for comment, they went bananas on Twitter and on X and swore that they were friends forever and no disagreement in private could possibly tear them apart

in public, which was kind of symptomatic of that. Like, wait, you're not allowed to have, like everything you say in public. is just a, you're just sort of out there brigading and the things you say in private are real. Like, I don't think that's super healthy. Well, that's the other thing that I wanted to point out, like, reading between the lines. It's sort of like, this is how social media operates for the other half. Like, you talk about these group chats, like, coming and going. Like, instead of social media where you have, like, this public history and this audience

that follows you around and, like, you have content and takes for them. But then for these private chats, it's sort of like that Stefan sketch from S&L. like when you get invited to a new one of these, it's like, oh, the cool kids have found me again, and it's like really active for a few months, but then it can kind of fade. And then you get invited to a new one. And it's almost like changing personas or like changing high schools so that it's social media where you can reinvent yourself when you get in the next like sort of cool kid group like this. Totally.

And it has all of the sort of seductions of this kind of access to power. Like lots of my friends and sources around them, I remember for years would be like, I can't believe this, but like Mark Antriason is blowing out my phone. Like that is kind of cool. But there is also, I mean, something I have found in this moment of this kind of maximal transparency and dysfunction is that it used to be if you were a powerful person, you knew things and had secrets that other people didn't know or have. And now it's like you get into like the sanctum sanctorum of the people who are like behind the final door of the most powerful and important people who know everything. And it turns out they're just like talking about some tweet from three days. ago that like is the same thing that like the dads at your barbecue were talking about.

Like there's this strange flattening. Right. And like a lot of what they're doing these group chats is, oh my God, did you see this tweet? And you should tweet that. Like those are the two main conversations. Last question real quick. You mentioned Shrina Vosin and Lonsdale and their reaction online. But what's been the other reaction to some of the folks that are on these chats if you've heard, you know?

Honestly, I did not expect this. But like it's been incredible. I've been very pleased that a lot of them have been texting an email me and saying, hey, like, you actually got the vibe of this basically right. So that's always a nice thing to hear after you write a story. Indeed. The story, as I mentioned, is at the bottom of today's show notes. Ben Smith from Semaphore.

You have a great podcast as well, so I wanted to give you a chance to mention that. Yes, please check out. If you're interested in all things, media, kind of writ large, please check out mixed signals from Semaphore Media.