Tech Brew Ride Home - Mon. 06/27 - Après Mai, Le Apple Déluge?

Episode Date: June 27, 2022

Are we in for the biggest deluge in new Apple products, maybe ever? Why, though, are the new MacBook Pros with M2 chips sporting slower SSD drives? Is your phone plan about to get more expensive? Is VC activity actually going down? How much should we worry about Tether? And something something, are DAO’s really that decentralized? Sponsors: KeeperSecurity.com/techmeme Gusto.com/ride Links: Apple Readies iPhone 14 and HomePod Upgrade in Flood of New Products (Bloomberg) Base 13-Inch MacBook Pro With M2 Chip Has Significantly Slower SSD Speeds (MacRumors) AT&T, Verizon Raise Prices and Test Consumer Budgets (WSJ) Venture Funding Set to Hit Lowest Level Since 2020 (Bloomberg) More Hedge Funds Are Betting Against Tether as Crypto Melts Down (WSJ) Dissecting the DAO: Web3 Ownership is Surprisingly Concentrated (Chainalysis) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On April 4th, 2023, around 2 in the morning, a man was found stabbed multiple times on a sidewalk in downtown San Francisco. Hey, who did this to you? What happened next turned the story into a political firestorm. Reports have identified the victim as Bob Lee, the founder of Cash App. From Bloomberg Podcasts, this is Foundering, the Killing of Bob Lee, beginning April 16. Welcome to the Tech meme right home for Monday, June 27th, 2020. I'm Brian McCullough today. Are we in for the biggest deluge in new Apple products maybe ever? Why, though, are the new MacBook pros with M2 chips sporting slower SSD drives? Is your phone plan about to get more expensive? Are VCs actually cutting back on

their investments? How much should we worry about tether and something something? Our Dow's really that decentralized? Here's what you missed today in the world of tech. What if we're about to enter one of the most ambitious periods for Apple ever, at least in terms of new products? That's the bold claim that Mark German made in his weekly newsletter over the weekend, quote, From what I've been told, the company is about to embark on one of the most ambitious periods of new products in its history, with the deluge coming between the fall of 2022 and the first half of 2023. The new products will include four iPhone 14 models, three Apple Watch variations, several Macs with M2 and, M3 chips, the company's first mixed reality headset, low-end and high-end iPads, updated AirPods

Pro earbuds, a fresh home pod, and an upgraded Apple TV. The announcements at WWDC give us a bit of a preview of what to expect, including how the new software and hardware will tie together. Let's start with the iPhone. The main new feature at first previewed here before iOS 16 was announced is the revamped lock screen. The company has been working on this interface for a couple years, and it makes sense to release it now because the lock screen works hand in hand with a new feature on the upcoming iPhone 14 Pro models and always on display. Like the Apple Watch, the iPhone 14 Pro will be able to show widgets displaying weather, calendars, stocks, activities, and other data while the screen remains at a low brightness and frame rate. And there will be a

setting, also like the Apple Watch, that keeps sensitive data from appearing on the lock screen for all to see. Other new iPhone Pro features include a much improved front-facing camera, a new rear camera system that includes a 48 megapixel sensor, thinner bezels, a faster A16 chip, and a redesigned notch with a pill-shaped cutout for face ID, and a hole punch for the camera. The Pro phones, codenamed D-73 and D-74, will be the big iPhone story this year, with the non-pro iPhone 14 models, D-27 and D-28, generating less excitement. The lower end phones will stick with the same A-15 chip as the iPhone 13, though the 5.4-inch mini-size will be replaced with a 6.7-inch model. All of this year's new iPhones will continue to use lightning to charge the battery,

but I expect to transition to USBC to happen in 2023. Speaking of USBC, a new low-end iPad with an A-14 chip and 5G, as first reported by 9-5 Mac is due this fall, with that more powerful connector, I'm told. I expect Apple to release new 11-inch and 12.9-inch iPad models with M-2 chips later this year that work with Stage Manager. They're codenamed J617 and J620. That will let Apple say it has five different iPads that support the interface versus three today, the current M1 iPad Pro's and iPad Air. I also expect Apple to release an iPad with a bigger display sometime in the next year or two between 14 and 15 inches. Stage Manager could make more sense on a device that size. The new M2 chip, part of the MacBook Air and 13-inch MacBook Pro announced at WWDC an optimized

with macOS Ventura is also the core of several other products in the pipeline. Those are likely to come in much quicker succession than the M1-based Macs did. Here are the M-2 Macs I'm told to expect beyond the first two. An M-2 Mac-M-2 Mac-M-2 Pro, an M-2 Pro, an M-2-Po-M-2-Max-M-M-2-X-1-1, M-2-2-Fx-1-16-inch MacBook Pros, and the M-2-2-A-2-E-2-E-E-T-E-M-O. Outside of the Mac and iPad Pro, there's another place I expect the M2 to appear, Apple's mixed reality headset. I'm told the latest internal incarnations of the device run the base M2 chip along with 16 gigabytes of RAM. And speaking of WWDC, there were

plenty of software-related hints there about the headset's operating system, Reality OS, and its features. Apple is also already at work on the M2's successor, the M3, and the company is planning to use that chip as early as next year with updates to the 13-inch MacBook Air, code named J513, a 15-inch MacBook Air known as J515, a new IMac codenamed J433, and possibly a 12-inch laptop that's still in early development. The other major announcement this year at WWDC was watchOS 9. That update certainly heralds what we can expect from the Apple Watch Series 8 this fall. As I've reported, Apple is preparing three new variations, a new low-end SE, a standard series 8, and a rugged edition aimed at extreme sports. For those hoping for a faster chip in this year's Apple Watch,

told the S8 chip will have the same specifications as the S7, which was also the same as the S6. Next year's models, however, are slated to get an all-new processor, end quote. But if you, like me, are waiting for those new M2 MacBook Ares to ship, please take note of this. SSD benchmarks show the 250-60-gabite 13-inch MacBook Pro model, which did get the M-2 chip, has around 50% slower read and 30% slower right speeds than the previous 256-gibite MacBook Pro with M1 chips. Quoting Macrumors. Yereev disassembled the new 13-inch MacBook Pro and discovered that the 256-gabyte model is equipped with only a single NANDD flash storage chip, whereas the previous model had

two chips that are likely 128 gigabytes each. This difference likely explains why the new model has a slower SSD, as multiple NAND chips allows for faster speeds in parallel. It appears that only the base model 13-inch MacBook Pro with M2 chip has the slower SSD. As noted in the Mac Rumors forums, Aaron Zolo ran the disk speed test app on the 512 gigabyte model, and the SSD's read-write speeds were similar to all M1 models, but getting these speeds will require spending at least $1,99.

This likely means that the 512-gigabyte model remains equipped with two 256-gigabyte flasher. storage chips. It's unclear why the new base model 13-inch MacBook Pro is only equipped with a single chip, but costs and or supply constraints are two possible factors. We've reached out to Apple for comment, and we'll update the story if we hear back. Slower SSD speeds can impact common tasks such as transferring files to an external drive, and overall performance can also take a slight hit since Macs temporarily use SSD space as virtual memory when physical RAM is fully used. If you are considering the new 13-inch MacBook Pro and faster SSD speeds are important to you, we recommend ordering a model with at least 512 gigabytes of storage, or better yet,

wait for the new MacBook Air in July, end quote. Maybe on a future space at some point, we can discuss why I recently switched my phone carrier to Verizon after spending 20 years with AT&T and singular before that. But the Wall Street Journal notes that AT&T and Verizon have both raised the cost of some, monthly and older mobile phone plans, while T-Mobile has largely kept most rates flat. Quote, AT&T, starting in June, raised the cost of its older wireless plans by up to $6 for single lines and $12 for family plans, encouraging subscribers to adopt newer unlimited data plans. Verizon later matched AT&T with a $6 or $12 monthly price increase on its metered data

plans. It also raised some monthly fees on consumer wireless plans by $1.35 and levied a monthly per smartphone fee of up to $2.20 on many business plans. T-Mobile has seized on its rival's price increases to burnish its lower-cost reputation, calling the decisions insensitive to overburdened consumers. Many T-Mobile rates are frozen anyway under a regulatory agreement tied to its 2020 takeover of Sprint, though the company can still revise fees. The company in February raised monthly fees on some older plans by up to 31 cents. T-Mobile said its fees will affect a smaller share of its customers. The company is meanwhile adding new perks to its most expensive consumer and business plans to convince customers to upgrade their service. New offerings include

high-speed data service in more than 200 countries and free Wi-Fi on Alaska, American, and Delta flights. What we're doing is dramatically different, T-Mobile marketing chief Mike Kretz, says in a recent interview. Verizon is also so far the only wireless carrier to raise fees on a plan advertised today. Most other rate increases have hit cheaper plans no longer offered to new customers, end quote. Real quick from the, this stuff is getting real file. According to CB Insights, global VC investment activity dropped 23% between Q1 and Q2 of 2022 through June 23rd, by the way, after dropping just 1.4% between Q4 and Q1, quoting Bloomberg, deal activity across the globe dropped 23% between the first quarter and second quarter of this year the firm found using data

for the second quarter through June 23rd. That's a stark contrast to the previous quarter where the deal count dropped only 1.4%, and an indication that the roiling of the crypto and public markets are affecting private companies. Investors are not just writing fewer checks, but also smaller ones. The total funding amount going to startups for the current quarter to date dropped 27% compared to the first quarter. Those numbers are likely to change before the second quarter is officially over in a week, but the drop appears to be more severe than the 19% CB Insights had predicted just a month ago. Late stage companies are getting squeezed particularly hard, funding in Series D rounds or beyond dropped 43%. By early 2022, so many companies were raising at valuations of $1 billion or more

that a new unicorn company was minted about twice a day. Over the past three months, however, the number of deals and the total funding raised have dropped to their lowest levels since late 2020, end quote. Here's something else to really keep your eye on. If you're in the crypto space, as crypto markets continue to wobble, hedge funds are apparently increasingly shorting Tether, either as a bet against the broader economy or just the quality of Tether's assets, quote. Tether is a stable coin, which are virtual currencies that are supposed to be pegged to the dollar or other national currencies, and it is the most widely traded in the world. Tether's market cap stood at about $67 billion on Friday, according to coin market cap data. In the past month,

more traditional hedge funds have executed trades to short tether through Genesis Global Trading, one of the largest crypto brokerages for professional investors. These trades are worth hundreds of millions of dollars in notional value, said Leon Marshall, Genesis's head of institutional sales. He declined to be more specific. A number of investors have been betting against Tether for at least 12 months, but more hedge funds got interested in shorting tether after the collapse in May of another stable coin, TerraUSD, according to Genesis. Some hedge funds are shorting tether as a bet about the broader economy. The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to curb 40-year high inflation, scaring investors away from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies. Other hedge funds are concerned

about the quality of the assets backing tether. Tether says it maintains an equivalent amount of reserves that include commercial paper or corporate short-term loans, bank deposits, precious metals, government bonds, and digital tokens. Some short sellers say they believe that most of Tether's commercial paper holdings are backed by debt-ridden Chinese property developers, the Wall Street Journal previously reported. Tether said in a blog post this month that, quote, these rumors are completely false, end quote, the company added, that it has been reducing its portfolio of commercial paper. Tether's market cap has been declining since it briefly lost its $1.00 peg. It is down about $16 billion in market cap since $8.000.

peak on May 5th, according to coin market cap data, end quote. I've heard for years whispers that tether blowing up is a serious sort of nuclear fear for the entire crypto ecosystem. I don't know enough about the space to be certain, but from what I understand, you know, crypto's already lost two-thirds of its market value, so if tether were to run into trouble, especially now, it would basically be Katie Barr the door. Finally today, sort of related, but an analysis of 10 major. Dow governance tokens, done by chain aliasis, found on average, less than 1% of all holders of Dow tokens have 90% of the voting power. So decentralized how again? Quote, this has meaningful

implications for Dow governance. For example, if just a small portion of the top 1% of holders work together, they could theoretically outvote the remaining 9% on any decision. This has obvious practical implications and in terms of investor sentiment, likely affects whether small holders feel that they can meaningfully contribute to the proposal process. For a governance token holder, there are three key governance actions. Voting is simple. Any holder can do it. But what about creating a proposal and what about passing it? Per these 10 Dow's proposal requirements, we found that a user must hold between 0.1% and 1% of the outstanding token supply to create a proposal. A user must hold between 1% and 4%

percent to pass it. Using these ranges as lower and upper bounds, we found that between one and 1,000 and 1 in 10,000 of these 10 DAOs holders have enough tokens to create a proposal. There are several tradeoffs at play here. If too many holders can create a proposal, the average proposal's quality may fall and the Dow may be riddled with governance spam. But if too few can, the community may come to feel that decentralized governance rings false. when it comes to single-handedly passing a proposal between 1 and 10,000 and 1 and 30,000 holders have enough tokens to do so. Overly concentrated voting power in Dow's can result in decision-making that seemingly contradicts the tenets of decentralization on which Web3 is built. For instance, in June, the Dow governing the Solana-based lending protocol Solend faced a problem.

Solana's price was dropping, and if it fell too much further, the protocol's biggest whale user would face a margin call that could render Solend in. insolvent and send roughly $20 million worth of Solana into the market, potentially tanking the asset's price and upending the entire Solana ecosystem. The Dow called a vote to take control of the Wales account and liquidate its positions through OTC desks rather than the open market. The proposal passed easily with over 1.1 million yes votes to 30,000 no votes. However, more than one million of those votes came from a single user with enormous governance token holdings. Without their vote, the motion wouldn't have passed the 1% participation rate necessary for Quorum. The decision triggered a backlash from the cryptocurrency community,

with many questioning how a platform could claim to be decentralized and then take control of a user's funds against their will. Following this, the Solend Dow voted again to invalidate the proposal, and the whale user eventually began to unwind their position. While the crisis was averted in this case, it raises questions about the ability of a Dow to act in the best interest of all participants when some voters control such an outsized share of governance tokens, end quote. Nothing for you today other than I did a bad thing over the weekend and got hooked on a game of Crusader Kings 3 once again. So now all my free time is gobbled up by trying to keep my kingdom of Brittany together, even though it's mostly the kingdom of England, just with the Breton Peninsula still there at the bottom.

We're going to try to explore and maybe get some territory in Aquitaine this afternoon, I think. Anyway, talk to you tomorrow.