Tech Brew Ride Home - Thu. 04/10 – JK, JK, JK

Starting point is 00:00:00 On April 4th, 2023, around 2 in the morning, a man was found stabbed multiple times on a sidewalk in downtown San Francisco. Hey, who did this to you? What happened next turned the story into a political firestorm. Reports have identified the victim as Bob Lee, the founder of Cash App. From Bloomberg Podcasts, this is Foundering, the Killing of Bob Lee, beginning April 16. Welcome to the Tech meme right home for Thursday, April 10th, 2025. I'm Brian McCullough today. At the time of this writing, the tariffs are back off, but who knows what will happen by the time you hear this. Open AI sues back. Google wants a framework for AI agents to talk to each other. Oh, and how many iPhones can you pack in a jumbo jet? Here's what you missed today in the world of tech. Well, you know, I guess, JK, JK, JK, I'm sure you've heard that a lot of the Trump tariffs were reversed yesterday. And as I typed to, you know, I guess, JK, JK, JK, I'm sure you've heard that a lot of the Trump tariffs were reversed yesterday. And as I typed to, these words, the stock market is a bit down this morning. But yesterday afternoon, the NASDAQ jumped more than 12% on the news of the tariff reversal. InVIDIA closed up 18.7%. Apple closed up 15.5%. Meta,

Starting point is 00:01:26 14.8%, Amazon, 12%, Microsoft, 10.1%, and Alphabet 9.9%. Though there is this, quoting CNBC. The president also said in a social media post that he was raising the tariffs imposed on imports from China to 125%, quote, effective immediately due to the, quote, lack of respect that China has shown to the world markets, end quote. China, which is the U.S.'s third largest trading partner earlier Wednesday said it would increase its tariff rate for imports from the U.S. to 84%, end quote. Now, this 90-day tariff pause does give Nintendo, whose stock closed up 11.7%. Time to prep the Switch 2's U.S. launch on June 5th, after all, I guess. quoting Bloomberg. Roughly a third of Switch 2 units are assembled in Vietnam, which would have been subject to a 46% levy, but now only faces the 10% universal tariff imposed by Donald Trump's administration.

Starting point is 00:02:22 Nintendo can focus all that production on the U.S. and stock up as many units as possible over the next three months. The company is preparing for what the industry expects to be the largest gaming console launch in history. HoysenCorp, one of three main Switch-2 assemblers, shipped more devices in February to the U.S. from Vietnam than in the previous six-months. combined, according to customs data provided by NBD. That suggests Nintendo can build a stockpile of millions of consoles from the Southeast Asian country in time for the June launch. Notably, almost all of Hoytons' production went to the U.S. starting January from about 11% to two-thirds over the previous 12 months of the data showed.

Starting point is 00:03:01 There is no plan B for the company beyond the $450 Switch 2, which will soon be the key platform for its popular game franchises. Nintendo is diversifying its business to better tap a rich library. of intellectual property and beloved characters via film, merchandise, and theme parks, but to do that, it must have a thriving platform and expanding user base. If the tariffs stay at 10% Nintendo probably keeps pricing at $450 and just takes the hit on margin, said Bernstein analyst Robin Zhu, at 46% Vietnam tariffs, I expected them to raise by $50 to $100, end quote.

Starting point is 00:03:35 We believe the Switch 2's bill of materials is around $400, meaning Nintendo will still be selling consoles at a loss in the U.S. with the 10% tariff, but the loss would be something Nintendo would be able to absorb, said Hideki Yasuda of Toyo Securities. Sony is in a tougher situation, as most of its PlayStation production is in China, and it may be forced to hike PS5 prices in the U.S. in the near future. PC makers showed one path to navigating the tariff uncertainty over the first quarter by stockpiling inventory in the U.S. and doing away with discounts, end quote. Yeah, on that, I continue to be fascinated by airlift stories like this. Quoting Reuters,

Starting point is 00:04:13 Tech giant Apple chartered cargo flights to ferry 600 tons of iPhones or as many as 1.5 million units to the United States from India after it stepped up production there in an effort to beat President Donald Trump's tariffs, sources told Reuters. Apple wanted to beat the tariffs, said one of the sources familiar with the planning. The company lobbied Indian airport authorities to cut to six hours the time needed to clear customs at the Chennai Airport in the southern state of Tamil Nadu, down from 30 hours, the source added. The so-called green corridor arrangement at the airport in the Indian manufacturing hub emulated a model Apple uses at some airports in China, the source said.

Starting point is 00:04:49 About six cargo jets with a capacity of 100 tons each have flown out since March, one of them this week, just as the new tariffs kicked in, the source and an Indian government official said, end quote. So, this is fun from our friend John Gruber, quote. This sounds like one of those puzzles job interviewers often ask, but there's a practical relevance at the moment. What's a ballpark estimate for how many iPhones Apple might have hustled to ship into the U.S. on those five freight planes ahead of the new tariffs? Ryan Jones tackled it in a post on X. A whopping 12 days of sales at most. Here's the math. B-747 freighter carries 300,000 pounds. Boxed iPhone is 0.9 pounds, which would equal 350,000 iPhones per plane.

Starting point is 00:05:36 I like Jones's ballpark math there. Let's not worry about volume. Just wait. If we're wrong about the volume, it can only mean fewer new inbox iPhones can fit per plane. There's no way to safely exceed the weight limit of a plane. Jones also estimates that Apple sells about 150,000 new iPhones in the U.S. per day, at least in the typical April, June quarter, which I concur is a good ballpark figure. So each plane can carry a little over two days worth of U.S. domestic iPhones. That means if the Times of India is correct that Apple transported five planes full of iPhones and other products from India to the U.S. in just three days during the final week of March, those five planes combined carried at the most about 12 days worth of new U.S. iPhones. Now, that's just from India. And those are just the five planes the Times of India heard about. It seems safe to presume Apple might have hustled even more planes out of China and Vietnam. But again, at most, each plane full of Apple products carries about two days worth of products. We did our napkin math using iPhones, but one full plane equals two days of inventory can't be far off the mark no matter what the mix of products is in each plane's cargo hold. 350,000 iPhones packed onto a single plane is a lot of iPhones. Sending a few million

Starting point is 00:06:48 units across a dozen or more planes is quite literally tons of iPhones, but Apple sells about 50 tons of new iPhones in the U.S. alone every day. We all know that Apple, Apple's iPhone business is huge, but when you start to consider it in practical terms like this, it's just staggering, end quote. The U.S. Senate has confirmed former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins as SEC chair, succeeding Gary Gensler. Atkins is widely expected to support crypto-friendly policies, quoting Bloomberg. Atkins approved Wednesday in a 52-44 vote, is expected to scale back regulation, reduce corporate disclosures, and make SEC rules friendlier toward cryptocurrency companies,

Starting point is 00:07:33 which battled in court with predecessor Gary Gensler. The new chair will also need to monitor the volatility triggered by the trade levies. Atkins is a familiar face at the SEC's headquarters. He served as a commissioner from 2002 to 2008, a stretch that included two pivotal moments for the agency, the fallout from the Enron, accounting scandal, and the start of the global financial crisis. The SEC already has made major changes since Gensler departed on Trump's inauguration day. Under acting chair, Mark Ueda, The regulator not only has dropped more than 10 high-profile crypto enforcement cases, but also rolled back deadlines to comply with Gensler-era rules and made it easier for companies to reject shareholder proposals. The agency ended the court defense of embattled rules requiring companies to disclose climate-related risks and greenhouse gas emissions. Atkins will lead a much leaner agency. At least 500 SEC employees have taken deferred resignation and buyout offers to leave the regulator as the Trump administration pushes for across-the-board cuts. to federal agencies, end quote.

Starting point is 00:08:38 This has gotten a bit lost in the mix of headlines, but OpenAI has countersued Elon Musk claiming harassment and asking a federal judge to stop Musk from any further attacks in a case over OpenAI's future structure, quoting Reuters, through press attacks, malicious campaigns broadcast to Musk's more than 200 million followers on the social media platform he controls, a pretextual demand for corporate records, harassing legal claims, and a sham bid for OpenAI's assets, Musk has tried every tool available to harm OpenAI, the company wrote in a filing in Musk's existing lawsuit against OpenAI in U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California. Open AI asked the judge to stop Musk from any further attacks as well as be, quote,

Starting point is 00:09:20 held responsible for the damage he has already caused. The two parties are set to begin a jury trial in spring next year. In a post on X, the social media platform which Musk owns, OpenAI said, Elon's nonstop actions against us are just bad faith tactics to slow down Open and seize control of the leading AI innovations for his personal benefit, end quote. Google has announced agent to agent, an open interoperability protocol to enable seamless collaboration between AI agents across diverse frameworks and vendors, quoting testing catalog. Aimed at enterprises, the protocol seeks to address the challenges of siloed systems by

Starting point is 00:10:03 standardizing communication between agents, thereby automating complex workflows and enhancing productivity. Supported by over 50 technology partners, including Salesforce, SAP, Service Now, and MongoDB, A2A provides a universal framework for AI agents to securely exchange information, coordinate actions, and integrate across enterprise platforms. The A-to-A protocol operates on key principles such as compatibility discovery, task management, collaboration, and user experience negotiation. For instance, agents can publish their capabilities via JSON-formatted agent cards, allowing client agents to identify the most suitable remote agent for the task. The protocol also facilitates life cycle management for tasks, enabling real-time synchronization

Starting point is 00:10:46 between agents built on established standards like HTTP and JSON. A2A ensures compatibility with existing systems while prioritizing security. Google has released A2A as open source, inviting contributions from the broader community to refine and expand its functionality. The protocol complements Anthropics model context protocol. or MCP and is positioned as a higher-level abstraction for agent communication. Google plans to launch a production-ready version later this year. This initiative is significant for enterprises striving to implement AI-driven automation across diverse systems.

Starting point is 00:11:20 By enabling interoperability between specialized agents, A-to-A addresses a critical barrier to scaling agentic AI solutions. Industry leaders such as Deloitte have highlighted its potential to unify workflows and reduce integration costs, end quote. By the way, Google has also introduced Firebase Studio, an AI-powered IDEE that lets developers create custom mobile and web apps, APIs, back-ends, and front-ends in their browser. So that's good for you devs. But good for the rest of us. WordPress has launched an AI tool to help users build simple websites using a chat interface available to users for free to compete with similar offerings from Squarespace and Wix.

Starting point is 00:12:03 Meanwhile, OpenAI has launched the Pioneers Program, which aims to work with multiple companies to design tailored AI benchmarks for specific domains like legal and finance, because we already have controversy about broad-based benchmarks for AI models, so it would be useful to have frameworks for specialized AI areas like that, quoting TechCrunch. The new OpenAI Pioneers Program will focus on creating evaluations for AI models that set the bar for what good looks like, as OpenAI phrased it in a blog post. As the pace of AI adoption accelerates across industries, there is a need to understand and improve its impact in the world the company continued in its post. Creating domain-specific evals are one way to better reflect

Starting point is 00:12:52 real-world use cases, helping teams assess model performance in practical high-stakes environments. As the recent controversy with the crowdsource benchmark LM Arena and Meta's Maverick model illustrate, it's tough to know these days precisely what differentiates one model from another. Many widely used AI benchmarks measure performance on esoteric tasks, like solving doctorate-level math problems. Others can be gamed or don't align well with most people's preferences. Through the Pioneers program, OpenAI hopes to create benchmarks for specific domains like legal, finance, insurance, health care, and accounting. The lab says that in the coming months, it'll work with multiple companies to design tailored benchmarks and eventually share those

Starting point is 00:13:31 benchmarks publicly along with industry-specific evaluations. The first cohort will focus on startups who will help lay the foundations of the OpenAI Pioneers program. OpenAI wrote in the blog post. We're selecting a handful of startups for this initial cohort, each working on high-value applied use cases where AI can drive real-world impact. Companies in the program will also have the opportunity to work with OpenAI's team to create model improvements via reinforcement fine-tuning, a technique that optimizes models for a narrow set of tasks, OpenAI says. The big question is whether the AI community will embrace benchmarks whose creation was funded by OpenAI. Open AI has supported benchmarking efforts financially before and designed its own evaluations, but partnering with

Starting point is 00:14:14 customers to release AI tests may be seen as an ethical bridge too far, end quote. Finally today, according to the International Energy Agency, global electricity demand from data centers will exceed 945 terawatt hours by 2030, and U.S. data centers are set to account for nearly 50% of electricity demand growth by that same year 2030. And you guessed it, AI is the driver behind all that, quoting Silicon Republic. The comprehensive report finds that AI will be the most significant driver of the surge with electricity demand from AI optimized data centers projected to more than quadruple by the end of the decade. Data centers in the U.S. will account for nearly half of the growth in electricity demand in the country between 2025 and 2030, the IEA reports.

Starting point is 00:15:08 estimates suggest that the U.S. is the second highest energy consumer using just more than 4,000 terawatt hours of electricity annually. This, however, is leagues behind the top consumer, China, which sits at more than 8,300 terawatt hours a year. The U.S. government placed this significant emphasis on the growth of the AI sector. Earlier this year, President Donald Trump announced a private sector funding of $500 billion into Open AIs infrastructure, which is said to secure American leadership in AI. More recently, AI U.C. has been promoted and encouraged within government departments. Driven by AI use, the U.S. economy is set to consume more electricity in 2030 for processing data than for manufacturing

Starting point is 00:15:47 all energy-intensive goods combined, including aluminum, steel, cement, and chemicals, the IEA, writes, while advanced economies, which include much of the global north, would drive more than 20% of the growth in electricity demand between now and 2030. This development sets some of these countries back on a track for higher energy demand after years of being in stagnation or decline, the report says. A 2024 Central Statistics Office report showed that data centers accounted for more than a fifth of Ireland's electricity consumption at 21 percent, overtaking urban dwellings, which consumed 18 percent of the total electricity used in 2023. AI is one of the biggest stories in the energy world today, but until now, policymakers and markets lack the tools to

Starting point is 00:16:30 fully understand the wide-ranging impact, said IEA Executive Director, Faith Birol. Global electricity demand from data centers is set to more than double over the next five years, consuming as much electricity by 2030 as the whole of Japan does today. The effects will be particularly strong in some countries. For example, in the United States, data centers are on course to account for almost half of the growth in electricity demand in Japan, more than half, and in Malaysia as much as one-fifth. While the increase in electricity demand for data centers led by AI will drive up emissions, this will be small in the context of the overall energy sector the report finds. Moreover, AI could accelerate innovations in the energy industry as the technology continues

Starting point is 00:17:10 to become integral to scientific discoveries. This could lead to advancements in energy tech, such as batteries and solar. With the rise of AI, the energy sector is at the forefront of one of the most important technological revolutions of our time. Bureau said, AI is a tool, potentially an incredibly powerful one, but it is up to us, our societies, governments, and companies, how we use it, end quote. By the way, I was clearly wrong to trust those 10-year-olds at that birthday party the other weekend. The Minecraft movie is a big monster hit. I guess this is why I don't do the Hollywood box office ride home.

Starting point is 00:17:54 Talk to you tomorrow.

Tech Brew Ride Home - Thu. 04/10 – JK, JK, JK

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.