Tech Brew Ride Home - Tue. 02/18 – Grok-3

Episode Date: February 18, 2025

xAI and Elon Musk have launched Grok-3, their cutting-edge AI model. Is it really a step forward? It’s really the cutting-edge? Andrej Karpathy is gonna tell us. The first tri-foldable phone is here. Is there a new huge AI player? And how Apple’s move to manufacture in India is going. Sponsors: MackWeldon.com Promocode: BRIAN Links: Elon Musk’s xAI releases its latest flagship model, Grok 3 (TechCrunch) Impressions of Grok-3 (@karpathy) Huawei’s trifold phone launches outside of China (The Verge) Trump tariffs result in 10% laptop price hike in U.S. says Acer CEO (Tom's Hardware) OpenAI Co-Founder Sutskever’s Startup Is Fundraising at $30 Billion-Plus Valuation (Bloomberg) Apple’s quiet pivot to India (FT) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On April 4th, 2023, around 2 in the morning, a man was found stabbed multiple times on a sidewalk in downtown San Francisco. Hey, who did this to you? What happened next turned the story into a political firestorm. Reports have identified the victim as Bob Lee, the founder of Cash App. From Bloomberg Podcasts, this is Foundering, the Killing of Bob Lee, beginning April 16. Welcome to the Tech Meme right home for Tuesday, February 18th, 2025. I'm Brian McCullough today. XAI and Elon Musk have launched GROC3, their new cutting edge AI model. Is it really a step forward? Is it really the cutting edge? Andre Carpathie is going. The first tri-foldable phone is here. Is there a huge new AI player? And how Apple's move to manufacture in India is going. Here's what you missed today in the world of tech. Last night, Elon and XAI launched GROC 3 Beta and GROC 3 Mini, their latest AI models with reasoning trained on 200,000 GPUs or 10 times more compute than GROC2, available now for X Premium Plus users. Quoting TechCrunch, GROC, XAI's answer to models like OpenAIs GPT40 and Google's Gemini can analyze images and respond to questions and powers a number of features on Musk's Social Network X.

GROC 3, which has been in development for several months, was optimistically slated for release in 2024, but missed that deadline. Mondays is an ambitious launch. XAI has been using an enormous data center in Memphis, containing around 200,000 GPUs to train GROC 3. In a post on X, Musk claimed GROC3 was developed with 10x or so more computing power than its predecessor GROC 2, using an expanded training set that includes filings from court cases and more. GROC 3 is an order of magnitude more capable than GROC 2, Musk said during a live-stream presentation on Monday. It's a maximally truth-seeking AI, even if that truth is sometimes at odds with what is politically correct, end quote. GROC 3 is a family of models, to be precise. A smaller version of GROC 3, GROC 3 Mini,

responds to questions more quickly at the cost of some accuracy. Not all the models and related features of GROC 3 are available yet, some are in beta, but they began rolling out on Monday. XAI claims GROC3 beats GPD40 on benchmarks including AIME, which evaluates a model's performance on a sampling of math questions, and GPQA, which assesses models using Ph.D-level physics, biology, and chemistry problems. An early version of GROC3 also scored competitively in chatbot Arena, a crowdsource test that pits different AI models against each other and has users vote on their preferred responses, according to XAI, end quote. Indeed, XAI says GROC3 outperforms Gemini 2 Pro deep Sikh v3, Claude 3.5 Sonnet, and GPT-40 in some benchmarks. During the reveal, Elon himself said the mission of XAI and GROC is to understand the universe and explaining that he wants to answer

questions like, what's going on, where are the aliens, what is the meaning of life, how does the universe end, how did it start, end quote. XAI also unveiled deep search, a reasoning chatbot that explains its thought process for queries and is capable of doing research, brainstorming, and data analysis. Now perhaps on account of all this, X raised its premium plus subscription to $40 per month or $395 per year after raising it to $22 per month in December 2024 following GROC 3's launch. But as TechCrunch notes, XAI is putting some of GROC 3's features behind a separate Super GROC plan available through the GROC app. So only some features like deep search and reasoning will be available to premium plus

plan users, end quote. Is GROC3 a leap forward in AI, the great Andre Carpathie, had a lengthy post on X describing what it's like to use? says its thinking capability feels state-of-the-art and rivals OpenAI's O-1 Pro models. Deep Search offers a blend of search and reasoning and more, quoting from pieces of his lengthy ex-post. Grok3 clearly has an around-state-of-the-art thinking model and did great out-of-the-box on my settlers of Katan question. Few models get this right reliably. The top Open-AI thinking models, e.g. 01 Pro at $200 a month, get it two,

but all of Deepseek R1, Gemini 2.0, Flash Thinking, and Claude do not. I uploaded GPT2 paper. I asked a bunch of simple lookup questions. All worked great. Then asked to estimate the number of training flops it took to train GPT2 with no searching. This is tricky because the number of tokens is not spelled out, so it has to be partially estimated and partially calculated, stressing all of lookup, knowledge, and math. I like that the model will attempt to solve the Riemann hypothesis when asked to, similar to,

deep-seek R1, but unlike many other models that give up instantly, I had to stop it eventually because I felt a bit bad for it, but it showed courage, and who knows, maybe one day. The impression overall I got here is that this is somewhere around O1 Pro capability and ahead of DeepSeek R1, though, of course, we need actual real evaluations to look at. Deep Search is a very neat offering that seems to combine something along the lines of what OpenA.S. Perplexity called Deep Research, together with thinking, except instead of deep research, It is Deep Search can produce high-quality responses to various research-y-slash-look-upy questions. You could imagine having answers in articles on the Internet, things like what's up with the upcoming Apple launch?

Any rumors? Why is Palantir stock surging recently? White Lotus 3? Where was it filmed? And is it the same team as seasons one and two? The impression I get of Deep Search is that it's approximately around perplexity, deep research offering, which is great, but not yet at the level of Open AIs recently released. deep research, which still feels more thorough and reliable, though still nowhere perfect, e.g.

It too incorrectly excludes XAI as a major LLM labs when I tried it. GROC3 does know there are three R's in strawberry, but then it also told me that there are only three LLs in Lollapalooza, turning on thinking solves this. As far as a quick vibe check over around two hours this morning, GROC 3 plus thinking feels somewhere around the state-of-the-art territory of OpenAI's strongest models. O-1 Pro at $200 a month, and slightly better than Deepseek R1 and Gemini 2.0 flash thinking, which is quite incredible considering that the team started from scratch around one year ago. This time scale to state-of-the-art territory is unprecedented.

Do also keep in mind the caveats, the models are stochastic and may give slightly different answers each time, and it is very early, so we'll have to wait for a lot more evaluations over a period of the next few days slash weeks. The early LM Arena results look quite encouraging indeed. for now, big congrats to the XAI team. They clearly have huge velocity and momentum, and I am excited to add GROC 3 to my LLM Council and hear what it thinks going forward, end quote. The first ever tri-foldable phone is here. Why just fold your phone in half when you can fold it and unfold it three ways? Huawei has launched the mate XT globally for $3,49 euro after its launch in China in September 2024, quoting the verge. Huawei's trifold, mate XT,

XT phone is launching outside of China, but it won't come cheap. The world's first and only phone that folds at two separate points in the display costs $3,499 euro, about $3,660, and like other Huawei phones, won't officially support any Google apps. The Matexte launched in China in September 2024. It features a dual hinge folding display that gives users three different screen configurations, a 6.4 inch panel when closed, a 10.2 inch tablet-sized screen when fully opened, and a 7.9 inch display when only part partially unfolded. The trifold is also impressively thin at just 3.6 millimeters thick at its thinnest point when open. That's even thinner than the upcoming Oppo FindN5, which is also being promoted as the world's thinnest foldable. That phone will be thinner than Huawei's when shut, helped by having only two panels rather than three, end quote. And quoting Android Central. Foldables have gotten much better in the last two years, and I enjoyed using the Honor Magic V3 and Pixel 9 Pro Fold in recent months, while each iteration brings thinner designs, better cameras, and bigger batteries, the underlying foundation is broadly unchanged.

That's what makes the Huawei Matexte such a unique device. The trifold nature of the foldable means you can use it as three different devices, a regular phone, fold-out device, and a full-fledged tablet once it's extended all the way. The design is distinctly unique, and while other brands are set to launch their own take on Huawei's idea sometime later this year, there isn't another device like the Matexte right now, end quote. And quoting the register. In terms of specifications, The MatexT has the equivalent of a 6.4-inch screen with a resolution of 2232 by 1008 panels when closed up, expanding to a 10.2-2-inch display with 2232 by 3184 pixels when fully unfolded. The phone uses Huawei's proprietary Kieran 9010 processor, 16 gigabytes of memory, and 256 gigabytes to 1 terabyte of flash storage.

As well as 5G, it supports Wi-Fi 7 and has a 50 megapixel camera and weighs about 300 grams, end quote. First sign that those tariffs are going to hit some technology gadgets. ACER CEO Jason Chen says the company will probably raise U.S. laptop prices by 10% by default from March 2024 due to Trump's tariff on Chinese imports. Quoting Tom's hardware, we will have to adjust the end-user price to reflect the tariff, Chen said to the telegraph, we think 10% probably will be the default price increase because of the import tax. It's very straightforward, the ACER CEO continued. The decision to increase prices was reportedly confirmed last week with the Taiwanese tech giant

remaining unaffected by tariffs on products that left China before February. Therefore, stock hitting U.S. channels afterward will be subject to increased tariffs. Acer's most expensive laptop on sale, the Acer Predator Triton 17-inch gaming laptop is currently $3,799 at Best Buy. But next month, that price is set to increase to 4,178 if increases are passed directly to consumers. It's unclear if the blanket price rise will also affect products currently sitting on shells, but it's likely that as new stock arrives, older stock will also be subject to the price increase. Chen notes that the incoming tariff may offer an excuse for others in the segment to raise prices by more than 10%. No other PC manufacturer has made a public statement regarding

the incoming tariffs and inevitable price rises. Acer's shifted the assembly of its desktop PCs away from China during Trump's previous term and says it is, quote, looking at different supply chains beyond China, with U.S. production one of the options being considered. The Consumer Technology Association claims that 80% of U.S. laptop imports currently come from China and that the incoming tariff could set U.S. customers back a collective $143 billion hurting sales. Moreover, the benefits to U.S. industry may be meager with U.S. production forecast to rise by only 8% and prices potentially rising by up to 45%. End quote. Do we have another huge player in the AI space?

Sources say Ilya Susekever's startup, Safe Superintelligence is raising more than $1 billion at a more than $30 billion valuation, led by Green Oaks Capital, which plans to invest $500 million. Quoting Bloomberg, the round marks a significant valuation jump from the $5 billion that Soskever's company was worth before, according to Reuters, which earlier reported some details of the new funding. The financing talks are ongoing, and the details could still change. The company previously raised money from investors, including Sequoia Capital and Andreessen Horowitz.

Green Oaks declined to comment. Representatives for Suskever didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. Suskever, a researcher who was instrumental in developing OpenAI's technology and served as its chief scientist, left the company in May. One month later, he co-founded Safe Superintelligence or SSI with Daniel Gross, a venture capitalist who previously worked on AI efforts at Apple as well as Daniel Levy, a former OpenAI researcher. SSI focuses on developing safe AI systems. It isn't generating revenue yet and doesn't intend to sell AI products in the near future. This company is special in that its first product will be the safe superintelligence and it will not do anything else up until then, Susgever told Bloomberg in June.

It will be fully insulated from the outside pressures of having to deal with a large and complicated product and having to be stuck in a competitive rat race. Susceiver was a key figure in the ouster of OpenAI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman in 2023 before he helped Altman return, end quote. Finally, today the Financial Times takes a look at Apple's quiet pivot to India, where Foxcon now makes the iPhone 16 Pro, sources say China views Apple's growing business in India with suspicion. Quote, for India, it is an important shift. Mobile phones have now surpassed diamonds as the country's biggest product export. And although only around 15% of Apple's iPhones are currently made in India, this is expected to increase to

25% by 2027, according to JPMorgan and Bank of America analysts. Globally, the company ships some 232 million iPhones in 2024, according to the International Data Corporation. If you have an anchor firm like Apple coming in and placing eggs in the India basket, that's a positive sign, says Kornak Bandari, a fellow with Carnegie India. It's a big signal to other companies that you can do business with some ease here and also establishes a strong linkage with a downstream manufacturing firm, which wasn't the case earlier. For Apple's chief executive Tim Cook, the geopolitics surrounding the shift are tricky. Apple, which is intensely secretive about its supply chain, needs to be wary of antagonizing China on which it still overwhelmingly depends. Complicating matters further is the chilly relationship between Beijing and New Delhi, and a sign of the secrecy and political sensitivities.

Officials in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu refer to Apple even in private conversations as the Fruit Company. It's very hard to build 35 million fewer phones in China and not be noticed, but they are doing it in the least public way possible, says Wamsi Mohan, senior equity research analysts with Bank of America. Nevertheless, Apple's growing business in India is viewed with suspicion in China. Beijing has recently hampered the movement of some Chinese technicians and capital goods into India, hitting Foxconn and other electronics producers, according to Indian and Chinese officials. The return of Trump to the White House already firing salvos at China with a 10% tariff on imports underlines why Apple needs to diversify its supply chain and manufacturing, a business strategy known as China Plus One. The stakes of Apple's relationship with India are also high for the Modi government,

which is under pressure to create sorely needed jobs. With unemployment hovering at about 10% and millions of young people about to enter the labor force, the clock is ticking. Anger over the issue during last year's election led to Modi's party being reduced to a minority for the first time in a decade and forced into a coalition. But if Apple is to put down deep roots in India, it will need a supply base there to rival its vast network in China. The iPhones currently made in India are still largely assembled using flown-in parts. To become more ambitious and bolster Apple's long-term presence, manufacturers of components will have to be lured to the country with similar revenue opportunities as those found in China.

Other aspects of Apple's success in China, notably a steady supply of mobile and trained female workers is also proving challenging to replicate in India. Apple does have keen and powerful partners, though. Tata, a leading flag bearer of Indian business, is positioning itself as Apple's first full-service supplier in India. But the 157-year-old group is a relative newcomer to electronics and will need to evolve quickly to make the partnership a success. Apple will face a few key challenges, including finding suppliers with the expertise it needs, and building the flexible workforce it has in China, with the ability to flex up and down by many tens and thousands of workers, says Chris Miller, the author of Chip War. It will also take time for relevant government authorities in India

to figure out how Apple works and vice versa, and for both sides to develop the kind of conversations over regulatory issues that Apple has had in China, end quote. Okay, heads up, we're going to record the 2000th episode, spectacular on Thursday night at 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific. Join us. It's a listener call in episode. I'll have more details for you to join tomorrow, but for now, mark your calendar and join us on Thursday night at 8 p.m. Eastern, 5 p.m. Pacific. Talk to you tomorrow.