Test Match Special - Red ball rivalries & white ball worries

Episode Date: January 1, 2025

Henry Moeran is alongside the BBC’s chief cricket commentator Jonathan Agnew and TMS statistician Andy Zaltzman to look ahead to England’s Men’s 2025. With a home Test series against India and the Ashes down under at the end of the year, it could prove to be a pivotal year for Ben Stokes as captain.

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the UK. The Dakar Rally is the ultimate off-road challenge, perfect for the ultimate defender, the high-performance Defender Octa, 626 horsepower twin turbo V8 engine and intelligent 6D dynamics air suspension. Learn more at Landrover.ca. This podcast is brought to you by Wise, the app for international people using money around the globe. With Wise, you can send, spend, and receive up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps. Plus, Wise won't add hidden fees to your transfer. Whether you're buying souvenirs with pesos in Puerto Vallata or sending euros to a loved one in Paris, you know

you're getting a fair exchange rate with no extra markups. Be smart. Join the 15 million customers who choose Wise. Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com. T's and Cs and Cs apply. from BBC Radio 5 Live. Hello, welcome to the Test Match Special podcast. I'm Henry Moran, and in this episode, we're looking ahead to a busy year of 2025 in men's international cricket. From the Champions Trophy to India Tests at Home,

then the ashes down under, there is so much to get stuck into, as there is, I should say, in the women's game. And Kate Cross and Alex Hartley will be bringing you their preview of the next year in their own unique way on no balls, the cricket. podcast early in the new year. For now, though, strap yourselves in for a magical, futuristic tour of what we've got to look forward to. You're listening to the TMS podcast from BBC Radio

5 Live. Well, who better to dust off their crystal balls than the BBC's chief cricket commentator Jonathan Agnew and the Sultan of Statistics, the doion of data. Andy Zaltzman. Gentlemen, hello to you both. Well, seasonal greetings, everybody. It's nice to be talking cricket, isn't it, this time of year? Well, indeed it is. And how it's going to work is this. We will do the test side first and the world of test cricket and then we'll focus on the white ball game

as well. And any other business and some perhaps some predictions there from you both as well. So a massive year for England's test side aggers. Where are they? Because at the end of 2024, I haven't got a clue where we stand. 17 test matches.

They've won nine. They've lost eight. It feels as brilliant one moment. as chaotic as it is the next, but it's a huge 12 months. Yeah, well, it is. And, you know, we talked about New Zealand. I wanted that to be the start of this process rather than the end of it. And I was a bit disappointed to hear Ben Stokes talking about, oh, that's the end of a long road and all that.

But actually, you know, they're playing one of the best teams in the world. And yes, they won the series, but there was that familiar chaotic collapse at the end that we've seen, well, he saw it in India, we saw it against Sri Lanka, we saw it in Pakistan, and we've now seen it in New Zealand. that's four pretty chaotic and I thought pathetic attempts really certainly the one I saw in Islamabad was woeful and Sri Lanka at the Oval and that's why I think people aren't really very sure about where England are on the one hand they're playing some excellent cricket and then on the other hand they just produce a performance like that and if they do that at the start of either of these series coming up against India or against Australia then I fear for them now if they play as a they have in the promising way in which they have played a lot of test cricket in the last 12 months

let's be honest but if they do start like that in either of these two series then I think they've got a chance but I don't know quite where they are you know you you revel in the good stuff and think this is fantastic bring on the ashes

and then you witness those of cataclysmic performances you know and you think wow what is that all about what do they say after it you know have they learned anything from those performances in India, from that performance against Sri Lanka, from that performance in Islamabad, from that performance in the last test match there in New Zealand,

have they actually sat down and talked about what is the cause of this and why it has happened? Because if you look at the fact that there have been four out of those 17 tests, they've ended like that, then you'd think, well, perhaps they're not saying anything. They're just shrug it off and head for the golf course. Now that's the negative way of looking at it. people are going to start thinking that you know if if they're if these sorts of if that trend continues then they are going to start being picked up for the socializing aspect of it because they should be better than that they're showing that they're better team than that most of the time or a lot of the

time and then there's this silly performance that comes in too often so I I'm with you Henry I don't really know where England are at the moment they've got a massive year ahead it's the it's the it's the the year that will define, certainly Stokes' captaincy if he's fit, it'll define the careers of a number of these players. And I just hope that they're focused on that, not putting too much pressure on themselves because of that, but being aware that this is a year that they've got to be at the top of their games. Oh, what fun it is to hear, agers off his long run early in the podcast. But you're right, you're right, because there have been so many frustrations in in 2024 because we've seen some brilliant moments and then we've seen some

horror moments as well and insults next year is a quieter year in terms of the number and the volume of test matches but there are some mighty big ones in there yes and part of part of the reason for that is when cricket doesn't really work on calendar years it works on broadly from an english perspective of summer season and a winter season it just happened that The tests for this winter and last winter have all been in 2024. So it's not been a sort of unusually large amount of test cricket broadly. It just happens to be packed into 12 months rather than spread over over 18. And when you say, we don't know quite where England are.

I'm not sure we quite know where England's opponents are either. India and Australia. India had that 3-0 home defeat with New Zealand. as we record they're won all in Australia, clearly still a hugely talented side with the premier weapon in test cricket at the moment in

Jasbitt Boomerah, but a number of players, particularly on the batting side whose form has been not great for quite a long time. Australia, similarly, won all at home with India. They drew that series with West Indies right at the start of the

year. They've also got a number of a number of batters who are well off their best and you know the questions over the age of their bowling attack thus far against India they've been they've been very good but you know another year on

who knows so I don't think we really know where anyone is we talked in the review of 2024 about how unpredictable test cricket has become and that sort of makes 2025 from England's perspective these two huge huge series against India at home and Australia away particularly tantalising

it's amazing how much can change in the space of a year and I know that the England's final test match of 2023 happened to be at the end of the English summer but it was a bowling attack of Stuart Broad, James Anneson, Chris Wokes, Moeen Alley and Mark Wood, only one of whom was featuring in the final

test match that was played in 2024 so it's an incredible turnaround so much can happen and it feels like a lot has happened it does happen and interestingly I get the feeling from McCullough and Stokes that they don't want that amount of change now there was obviously retirement

amongst those names that you mentioned there rather than dropping players and they seem very loathe to do that and in some ways you can look at the teams that have been announced recently or you can actually predict what the likely teams are going to be and they do more or less pick themselves

because you know that Stokes and McCullum are so loathe at dropping players so we can all go on and we will do about Zach Crawley as an example and yet you look at virtually everyone's prediction for who's going to be opening the batting in the ashes so a year away

and Zach Crawley's name features virtually every time because you just know the way that Stokes and McClellan operate so you know I think that that turnover of players as I say is not actually down to players being dropped and Ollie Pope's another one who we'll be talking about and yet you just feel that he's almost certain to be there because that's just the way

that they like doing it. They show tremendous faith in their players and that's a very good thing by the way if you are an England player to have that confidence in you and people got a bit grumpy when Zach Crawley was sort of given you know there's carte blanche when he's

playing with us as long as he wants more or less when he was going through that horror patch but then he came through that for a while didn't they and and it does do a lot of good as a as any sportsman I guess but certainly I can speak from experience as a cricketer if you know that you're not going to get binned

after one bad performance it makes you relax enormously from a bowling perspective you're not searching for wickets you can just get on with it and bowl and you know you're bowling well then you're not going to get sacked

and on the other hand you've also you do have to give initiative to players who are on the fringe of test status and who are those who are playing county cricket and need that incentive to get out there and play on dank and miserable days at Grace Road or wherever it may be in Cardiff or whatever, because you need the incentive of maybe playing for England

and being picked playing for England and that raises the level of county cricket which makes everybody below that test level that little bit better. So you do have to get the balance right. On the one hand, you have to support the players who are there and really give them every opportunity that they can because you believe they're good players and they must be good players to have got to that.

level. But on the other hand, there's the integrity of selection. I thought Josh Hull was a crazy selection last summer. He just came from nowhere. And there are others there in the pecking order who are going to turn around and say, hang on a minute, what is the point of running in and building all these overs every year if this kid gets picked, having hardly played any cricket at all, what am I doing? So you have to get the balance right, incentivising those who are trying to get into that England team, while backing those who are already there. talk, Sultz, about whether England know their best team. Do you reckon you know what England's best

team is at the moment? The team you'd like to see heading out to face the music in Perth? Well, in Perth, I don't know yet because there's six tests to come, the one-off test against Zimbabwe, then those five tests with

India, who've been generally broadly competitive in England and a lot of series, this, certainly this this millennium made a couple of heavy defeats but in the 2018 series was 4-1 but it was very close series and then in 2021 in India were 2-1-up

then didn't play that final test came back and got beaten by the new sort of basball era England team for a eventually a two-all draw over two series but they challenged England in England so I think more what is England's best team for that first

India test which I guess is a slightly different question and I would hope they would just focus on that for now. There are a number of questions, you know, with Crawley I think, you know, if you feel his batting is suited to

Australia, you played one very, very good innings there in Sydney last time. It knew a huge amount other than that in the other two tests that he played. There might even be an argument for leaving him out in the summer and saying, well, well, you know, you'll come on the ashes tour.

So, I mean, he had a very good year in 2023. and then in the series in India was England's most consistent player only got the 100 but lots of 70 scores have this real problem getting from 70 to 80 which recurred in the start of the Pakistan series but since that first test in Pakistan

he's had a really tough run and was absolutely eviscerated by Matt Henry in New Zealand so I guess it's that delicate balance of you're wanting players to feel secure but at the same time you know risking further

I mean, it's very hard to tell when that moment comes, or it's better to take a player out. And as Aga said, they've erred on the side of keeping players longer, although when they do make decisions, they tend to be fairly final and decisive, as has happened with Ben Foges and Johnny Baxter at the start of last summer. So in terms of bowling, I think England's in a much better place than we thought they would be in the post-Anderson Broad era. And again, some of we talked about in the review of the year. podcast, 156 out of their

294 wickets taken my bowlers in 2024 by players who hadn't played test cricket at the start of the year. It's been an extraordinary regeneration and you mentioned Josh Hull didn't look great on his day, but he still picked up three wickets, but Kass had no

red ball stats to back his selection, has done tremendously well. Atkinson had a decent red ball stats, but I don't think anyone expected him to be as good as he has been. So whatever they're doing with their selection, it has particularly with the bowlers worked very well over this last year. Do you feel more confident Agers now, particularly around England's bowlers in test match cricket,

than perhaps you ever dreamed that you could do post-Broaden Anderson? Well, yes, I think certainly Atkinson has had an extraordinary year, hasn't he? But then you look at the way he bowls, and you think, well, yeah, of course he does. He bowls at a good pace. Bowles are that foolish length, keeps going nicely. He just looks a good bowler. Bryden Kass won me over in Pakistan. I wasn't quite sure what he did up to that point.

But he's got tremendous heart, ran in hard in those poor conditions, really, for quick bowling, obviously out there in Pakistan, but in the heat as well. And again, he bowls that full length. That's the beauty of it. And you can flip it around and say, yeah, we're talking about Matt Henry and Zach Crawley. I mean, Henry is sort of like a nemesis for Crawley. He's the worst sort of bowler that Crawley would want to face. He bowls at a lively pace.

He gets it up there. Crawley's always looking for that booming drive, as we know. And that is just the area, obviously, that someone like Henry will bowl at that good pace. And Nick, off you go, caught second slip or where it may be behind the wickets. And I just really wish that Crawley and Pope if he gets a chance. We've said it so much. I don't think England are going to win the ashes, for instance, by going out and trying to smack the ball about. I just don't think they're going to do that.

The Australian bowlers are too good. They all are going to bowl that foolish length and challenge that off-stump, just outside off-stump line. And relentlessly banging away at that. And I just don't think out there and trying to smack it about against a new ball is the answer. I think you play.

And you wait until the ball is 30 over as old and those quick bowlers have got a spell in their legs. And then you can start to be a bit more expansive because the ball will still be coming onto the bat on those pitches. But I just want to see them play more intelligent cricket than has been played. And, you know, we've seen some terrific entertaining cricket. Of course we have. Everyone's talking about test cricket again, which is fantastic. But there's so many strands to test cricket, which is why it's such a deep game. There's so much more depth to test cricket

than there is to any other format, obviously, that's been played in cricket. A part of that is that sometimes you do have to play a thoughtful, yes, defensive game. Defensive does not mean negative. It's an essential part of playing test cricket. Sometimes you do have to go into a more defensive frame of mind because that way you work yourself back into the game again. And I go back to those collapses and the horror defeats that we talked about.

It was as if they sort of thought, oh, we're out of this game. Bang, bang, bang, that's it. Whereas you can at least show some fight. I mean, some of the dismissals in that last test. match you know you read through it you know people caught long off their stumped reverse ramping what is going on when you're losing a test match in what frame of mind are they in and they are going to have to get I think a much more hard working I don't mean training they are all very fit but hard working out in the

middle sometimes it was Mike Atherton described you got to score ugly runs you could get out there and fight if you only score 40 50 runs in a session okay but you haven't lost a wicket and you're still in the game and you fought your way up towards it. He got some over and the bowler's legs. And that's another point, by the way when we talk about all this, that the amount of rest that England's quick bowlers get is just

not enough. You know, the way that England bat and the score they run so quickly and get dismissed so quickly, the poor old bowlers and they're going to be playing on hard pitches out in Australia in heat. They need more rest than that. They need actually to have a day sitting down with their feet

up, having a cup of tea, doing the sun crossword and letting the bats and go out there and do their job because otherwise it's going to be a very, very hard tour for those bowlers. You know, one of the sort of notable facets of England's

play under Stokes and McCullum is, and you know, has been inconsiderate and had a great first year since then. They've run, I think, just more than they've lost. And, you know, had, as Agers were saying,

some great victories, but also some fairly terrible defeats. But what they do is they put a different challenge to their opponents that they're not used to facing. We saw this really strongly in the ashes here

in 2023. They attacked the Australian bowlers in the way that they'd never been attacked before. Cummings went at 4.3 and over. Hazelwood, over 4.5 and over. Stark, you know, has always been quite an attacking bowler who's gone for quite a lot of runs per over. But it even said the way they attacked those bowlers

was something that they hadn't faceball. And they didn't deal with it particularly well, particularly as the series evolved. And they got demolished at Old Trafford in the one drawn test. when England got almost 600 and Crawley had that superb 189. So this is, you know, I think that almost the philosophy of England as a team is to present different challenges to their opponents, whether it's with the sort of creative field placings and bowling strategies that we've seen under Stokes

or this sort of historically unique way of batting. Now, clearly it doesn't always work and it can always be improved. And I think that, you know, that balance and having a bit more variety, of when to attack, when to accumulate, which you've seen at times during the last two and a half years I think is critical to it to his success. But it would be really interesting to see if they take that same approach

of trying to get Cummins and Hazelwood who've both been really good since that ashes, Hazelwood 41 wickets at 15, Cummins 44 at 20 since the 2023 ashes and they both took a lot of tap. It'd be really interesting to see how they adapt to that challenge when English. and go there next year.

A lot of it depends on the type of pitches. Last time England were there, certainly three of the five pitches were very semen friendly, and England didn't deal with it at all well in the old school, and generally under Bazball, when the balls move laterally as when they've struggled. So it'll be very interesting what pitches Australia prepare and what, if anything, the Australian bowlers do differently

to deal with this unique challenge that this England batting line-up presents. There is a massive series aggers against. India, which will be the barometer of where England are. It'll go a long way to determining who goes to Australia to play in that Ashes series. It's a thrilling prospect the India series, not least because of

Jasprit Bumra, but also the other narratives of Virac Koli and that sort of senior group of India players. Absolutely. I mean, I don't want to sort of just brush the Zimbabwe test aside either. No. Because although that, you know, you can sort of think, okay, it's a four-day game against

Zimbabwe, you know, what's the point of it, but actually, if you look at the individuals that we've been starting to point the finger at, that's a big game. I mean, if Zach Crawley goes out against Zimbabwe gets a big double hundred, well, okay, there will be some people that will say

well, of course he's bouncy, they're not very good. It's only a four-day game, you know, blah, blah, blah. But actually, we do wonders for his confidence. It is a test match, you know, a test match century, or whatever he might score. And the same goes for Ollie Pope. So, do, if you're an England's

select to say well that's it everything's sorted out Olly Pope's got some runs there batting at number three that takes care of that again and then Zach Crawley's obviously up there restored as opening do they then because they do like to put their faith in players as we've talked about does that mean that they're nailed

on for the rest of the summer conversely if they fail and Zach Crawley fails again Olly Pope jitters all over the place and plays a silly shot and gets out cheaply batting at number three does that bring the axe down because they are then taking a deep breath

and starting this very big series against India. It's disappointing, I think, that Joffar Archer's not available for that test match because that would have been, I think, that's a perfect comeback for him. I've been touched on him. I get that.

But for me, he's going to have to play some test cricket to prove that he's fit to go to Australia. Just a couple of games, I guess, because it's unrealistic these days to expect a fast bowler like Archer or Wood or Stone or any of these guys to play all five tests either against India or

indeed against Australia. You just can't do that anymore. You can't play full series if you're building like that. The tests simply come up too quickly and there aren't the rest in between. So it just seems that having been absent for so long that Zimbabwe test would have been ideal for Archer

just to get back into the whole business of being out there in the field again for a day and a bit all those sorts of things that are important. I understand why they've allowed him to go and play the IPL because there is this uncertainty about his fitness and the rule changes the IPL means if he wasn't in the auction this time that would rule him out for the next two years and because we don't know how fit he is but that test match would have just been a good one I think for him to come back

rather than a sort of a crucial India game when the pressure's on and maybe England have won down in the series or something Anyway, that's by the by. The fact is, yes, India is a fascinating series. And we tend to play India, and it's come up a little bit more quickly this time, but we do tend to play India off and away in Ash's years. And that has often had a real derailing effect on the England team because they've gone to India and usually lost. And so they've tossed a load of players out as a result of that,

playing in completely different conditions and circumstances in which they'll face a few months later in Australia, but it's just the impact of that series of playing against good opposition on spinning pitches in India. And that's been, that's proved fatal for a number of players down the years. Now this is slightly different and of course it is at home, but what has changed enormously over the last generation is that India now come here massively equipped with outstanding fast polars themselves. They never used to do. He used to come to play. four spinners. Bill Bisham Beddy and Prezhenner and Venkat

and these guys turning their arms over and of course they weren't the right players for these sorts of conditions. That's why India now are much more challenging. They've got a pace attack as good as any in the world. And in Jasbitt Bumra, who's an outstanding, very different, very unorthodox

cricketer. I love watching him bowl. He's just so full of enthusiasm. He loves what he's doing. You look at a lot of fast bowlers. and it looks like it's hard work they're puffing and blowing and and out they go and they go in and bowl another ball and on they go

boom redis never seems tired to me he just relishes what he does he's in the form of his life very dangerous great pace I would imagine he's very difficult to pick up early on if you haven't faced him for a little while I mean I would think

if he would just every new bats when he bowls out bang bowl full and straight first ball boom there's a good chance that actually they're going to they're going to miss it you know Steve Smith being a prime example of that you know feet all over the place looking for the ball bang it's only before you know it

and he's extremely dangerous but they've got a lot of good players and that will be a challenging series and the question again will be for England if it doesn't go well and given that I don't think there's a huge number of reserves because of again we go back to the

way that England have picked their team over the two or three years, there aren't naturals waiting in the wings necessarily. There are one or two. Do you discard players who might have a poor series against India or do you show faith in them and take them out to Australia?

But, you know, that's just one of those strands of little stories that's going to be running through the course of the summer. What about England's 12 months more generally? And let's draw attention a little bit to the ashes. To me, and I know you've said this before, It feels like the defining year of the Stokes-McCullan project.

Well, I think so. I mean, certainly, yes, I'd agree with all of that, actually. And as we speak, we don't really know how fit Ben Stokes is. And all the ramifications of that, how he'll be able to bowl. He told me before this last, before we went to Pakistan, I saw him. And he said that he has to be so careful with that hamstring injury he was getting over there. because if it went again, you'd need an operation. You know, it's a serious injury that he's got.

How are they going to use him in the future? Will he even be fit? I mean, the Stokes dilemma is a huge one, I think. You know, he balances the team. He's one of the best batsmen in the team, and he's a terrific captain, an outstanding tactician, brilliant at working out teams,

getting into batsman's faces and all that you know all of those sorts of things even if he's overrate isn't great but you know England without Ben Stokes in Australia would be a very big hit who would be captain you know that that is you don't even want to think about it in a way you know Olly Pope is vice-captain you can really see Olly Pope leading England to Australia it it doesn't stand out does it I mean Harry Brooke he seems incredibly early to be to be laying that onto him. I mean, Joe Root seemed to be the one to me

who would be an obvious one to at least approach and with his seniorities, experience, and possibly, probably his last tour of Australia. I think he'd probably be my go-to person in that worst-case scenario of Stokes not being fit. But, you know, this is going to be, again, something that we're watching. I mean, every time the ball goes to Stokes,

in the field, he runs after it, you hold your breath and you just hope you don't see him clutching the back of that hamstring again and it's gone once more I don't think they'll be able to use him as the bowler that he would like to being realistic but you know that's again

just going to be one of these talking points that's going to see us through until the start of the ashes do you believe England can win in Australia I do yes absolutely I do I think I've got to start well I think they go out and have one of these frantic performances that we've seen as we've already talked about in this conversation then that would just be a disaster they've got to start solidly they've got to start

well and you know what even if they go out there and they actually go the first game is a draw that you know that in itself would be a good achievement you know because as you know going out and winning the ashes is extremely difficult I've only seen them do it once in my 30-odd years of this job. That's how difficult it is. You've got to win one more game than the opposition anyway to win them back again. So get out there and you know you might have to really work hard. In fact, you shall, you will have to go out work hard. The England team that did win in 1011 worked incredibly hard. That first test match at the Gabba, which they drew, it was like a victory. It was in every sense it was like a victory for England. It was like a big defeat for Australia.

well you know there's there's no shame in going out and getting a really hard fought draw saying right bring on the next game there's no shame in that it's part of a five-match series but I think a huge amount you asked the question I think a huge amount depends on that first test and having seen obviously the India game there but the ball did do a bit certainly early on you know if England they got to fight

they had to work very hard if they fall in a heap we see an Islamabad, we see a Wellington, we see an oval, then, you know, if you feel it'd be very hard to come back for one-nill down, four games to go, and you've got to go out there and win more than the Oz is to win the Ashes back. They do tend to start well in series, those sorts. Well, yes, until, well, this India series that's currently going on. I don't know, never know how much we can read into historic patterns, and particularly with it, The difference of order of matches with the series starting in Perth

rather than Brisbane. Still quite a new ground. And Australia have had a bit of a mixed year. They began the year with that one all series draw with the West Indies, lost that gripping second test, but only a few runs when Shamar Joseph ran through, and then lost the first test against India. So back-to-back home defeats responded well after that first test defeat to India.

But they've got a number of issues in their team. In terms of their batting in 2024, before this final test of the year, 28 runs per wickets, their second lowest in the last 40 years in a calendar year, but they're bowling 23.5 runs per wicket, their third best since 1959.

So again, kind of trend of quite low-scoring test cricket all round. We've seen Australia's batting struggle quite significantly. Looking at the individuals, Usman Kowager, since the 2023-Ash's

10 tests averaging 28 and his 22 before that, after his spectacular recall with twin centuries at the SCG in the last Ashes series he'd averaged 60 in those 22 tests with 700s Manus Labashane since December 22 against South Africa 23 tests average 30 he'd average over 60 in his previous 30 tests since coming back into the side in the 2019 ashes Steve Smith since the start of that South Africa series in December 2020

23 tests average 37 has got 100 against India but you compare that with his previous form from 2013 up to December 2020. He'd average 66 in 78 tests with 2,900 is one of the most extraordinary spells of elongated good form in test history. Mitchell Marsh has been struggling recently. Cameron Green has been injured, still hasn't achieved consistency with the bat and has not been used a lot with the ball due to injuries. Travis Head, superb against India so far, but he'd had a bit of a dip before that as well. after his extraordinary form, which began with that scintillating century in Brisbane at the start of the last season. We almost laid the template for bads ball.

He'd have gone up to 50 by 100 balls over his career up to that point, closer to 80 since then. So they've got a lot of potential weaknesses in the batting line. They still haven't found an opener to replace Warner. They're trying to, very promising youngster Sam Constus in the Boxing Day test against India. So there are weaknesses for England to exploit. I was looking also about what England have done. in the summers before going to Australia and actually losing might be a good idea

because in 2021 they had a poor summer and then got hammered in Australia but before that all the Ashty Series England have lost since the 1986-7 series they've gone on the back of a pretty decent home summer with a winning record more wins than losses apart from 1998 and they lost Sri Lanka but had beaten South Africa

2-1 in the five test series that summer and they've only won one of those Ashes series, that 2010 series. In 1986, they lost at home to India and New Zealand, then went to Australia and 1-2-1. In 1970, England won the Ashes. They got hammered 4-1 by the rest of the world team, and were at the time considered test matches, went to Australia and won 1-2-0.

Even in 1954-55, when England won 3-1. They'd had a one-all-home-summer-drawn series with Pakistan on Pakistan's first test door. So maybe, you know, if England lose to India, Henry, we can cling to that. It's all part of looking at the stats for how to win in Australia. Going there with a winning summer, generally doesn't work.

Well, more to come in just a moment, but a little reminder, it may be cold, dark, and not at all cricket weather in the UK. But fear not, the BBC has so much live cricket for you now. And around the corner, the continuation of the border Gavisca trophy, the Big Bash League as well, full commentary from Australia. And then, also down under, the women's ashes, gets underway at 11.30pm on Saturday, 11th of January, myself.

And Alex Hartley will be like. in Sydney for the first ODI in the multi-format series. You can listen on BBC Sounds 5 Sports Extra and the BBC Sport website and app for ball-by-ball commentary from Australia throughout the whole series. The TMS podcast from BBC Radio 5 Live. To embrace the impossible requires a vehicle that pushes what's possible. Defender 110 boasts a towing capacity of 3,500 kilograms, A weighting depth of 900 millimeters and a roof load up to 300 kilograms.

Learn more at landrover.ca. I want you two to be frivolous at the end of the podcast with some out there predictions, by the way. So get your thinking caps on for that. But let's move on to the white ball game. It's a different England side, isn't it? Because they've had a disappointing 18 months. Terrible World Cup in 2023. They struggled and lost badly in the semi-final of the World Cup.

in the T20s in the Caribbean as well but Zoltz Brendan McCullum comes in he picks a side full of test players that he knows well and there's just a little bit more energy but more generally it's quite a quiet year

for whiteball cricket after the champion's trophy yes and well 2024 England have played only eight one day internationals that's the few as they've played in the calendar year since 1995 one three lost five

the third year in a row England have had more losses than wins in ODI cricket. That's the first time in England's ODI history. They've had three consecutive losing years. In all 29 wins, 29 losses since the 2019 World Cup final, having had 65 wins, 26 losses over that World Cup cycle under Owen Morgan's captaincy. And this is much closer to where historically England have been throughout ODI history. They've never really been wildly good or bad over a four-year World Cup cycle, always round about the 50% win percentage mark, other than that one extraordinary four-year period.

So maybe that's the sort of England's base level of ODI cricket has generally been adequate. Now, we saw the turnaround McCollum achieved in test cricket very rapidly in that 2022 summer and then the winter winning 3-0 in Pakistan. Whether he can achieve that in whiteball cricket, slightly more challenging, I guess there isn't quite the same stylistic point of difference given that most, you know,

you sort of have to play one. day cricket in a more attacking manner but one of the there's notable things about him is how he has almost unleashed the confidence of players and that's something I think has been lacking in England's white ball

white ball but certainly one day international team for some time now but there's not a lot of form line coming to the champion's trophy and you know all the mayhem that there's been around where the games are going to be played and the the ongoing mega bicker between India and and Pakistan

There's not a lot of sort of form to look at coming into this tournament. The championship is a bit of an odd tournament. Previously sort of tournaments have been quite exciting. In 2017, the last time it was held was an excellent tournament, only two and a half weeks. You get a sort of a little concentrated burst of ODI cricket. And I think probably the future of that format, if it survives,

is going to be in international tournaments rather than bilateral series. So hopefully they'll get through the politics and it'll show one day cricket in a good life. Yeah, I mean, the champion's trophy for me is, it's a tournament that the World Game could do without. It was saved by that 2017 tournament, wasn't it? I mean, it just seemed then that it was right on the brink of the ICC, in my view, taking the right decision and just through popular demand, really, and player demand, workload-wise, just said, look, this is, let's be honest, it is purely a money spinner. That's all it is, it's another tournament to flog to TV. That's really what it is. I think England actually picked quite an interesting side.

I will be interested to see how McCullum goes about it, because if you think that Bazball was wild and exciting in test cricket, well, you ain't seen nothing yet. If he wants England to go out and play as he did. And we'll all remember, of course, 2015, when really he showed England the way. And he showed Owen Morgan the way. The way he batted in that tournament himself was unbelievable.

And then he played a hideous shot in the final, having got New Zealand there. And you think, oh, come on, really? And, you know, that is the way that he plays. And if, again, we're going to go out and we're going to have this sort of approach in this whiteball format, it'll be very interesting to see how they go. He has picked Mady Test players. I'm really pleased to see Joe Root in there. And I hope he bats at three, and I hope he sort of controls the pace of the innings.

He's such an experienced batsman. It's extraordinary to think that he hasn't featured as much recently. Joss Butler. I mean, he's in a really interesting situation. In his last 10 innings of 50 over's whiteball cricket, he's reached double figures four times. And he's the captain. He's scored one half century that time.

He's had bad injury issues, as we know. It just seems to me that his confidence as a captain isn't very high and that that guillotine is a sort of hovering just above. There are others two. Salts, what he's got five half-centries. in 27 games, Livingston, four half centres in 33 matches. There are players there who have got a bit to do, really, in this format. Now, it might be, and those two particular, I've picked those out

because they are the sort of batsmen who actually might relish the McCullum approach and just given the freedom and the confidence and the support and the backing to go out and play the sort of innings that they're certainly capable of playing, but haven't necessarily produced in 50 over's cricket up to now. 100 of course. But I think if you look at the balance of the side, that is not a bad team. Who do they face? They face Australia. They face Afghanistan and they face South Africa. So that's three games away from the semifinals. So they're up against some reasonable opponents and don't write Afghanistan off, by the way, playing in those sort of conditions either in

Pakistan. So they're not easy fixtures. But as I say, I'm with results rather. You know, the one thing champions trophy cricket does have is it's it matters if you lose and I think that's where people are a bit fed up with a bilateral five one-day international series where well okay we've lost that one play again in three days time I just don't think there's a that there's much of a future for that this is the one chance that 50 over's cricket really has to redeem itself because it you know if there isn't enough jeopardy in 50 over's cricket for me at the moment. So, yeah, we'll see how it goes.

But I do like the look of the balance of this side. Obviously, fascinating to see how McCullum runs it. The summer white ball series, by the way, it's no longer the case where India would play an extended series as per previous tours. Actually, England have got six games against West Indies and six games against South Africa. And the next ICC tournament is next February. That's a T20 World Cup.

And then a further 18 months until the next 50 over World Cup. So there's actually not a vast amount. And we talk about Brendan McCollum's workload, Zoltz, but it's not a huge intray in terms of whiteball cricket. No, and it's one of the problems 50 over cricket has that people, we used to complain that there was too much of it. Now there's sort of too little, so there's no sort of narrative thread going through it.

And particularly in terms of the structure of the English summer, having these standalone whiteball series, I don't think captures the imagination of cricket fans. As you think back to 2018, England played India in a T20 series and a one-day international series. Before the test cricket, you get that story building up over the course of the summer. And ideally that should be the default for international cricket,

but because it's the best thing to do and eminently sensible, it'll probably never happen again. So it's sort of frustrating. Test cricket is the format I've always loved the most, but 50 over cricket is sort of fascinating format, particularly when it has context. You see in tournaments when people get into it. sort of the back end of the big international tournaments.

It's a gripping format that has, you know, that more narrative variety than T20 cricket is able to produce with its sort of fewer number of balls and potential turning points. And I think it's a shame that it's been allowed to wither, particularly think back to 2019, got a gripping tournament, the 2017 Champions Trophy we talked about, had a lot a lot going on, and 50 over cricket has been sort of quietly taken to a barn

and it's being not particularly humanely destroyed, which I think the cricketing calendar is a bizarre thing and as I've said before if you keep squeezing the golden goose what emerges from it might not be an age. It's a shame for the supporters because a lot of cricket lovers will go and watch a 50 over's game

and they do, they go with their mates or whatever, they do it every year, they go off and watch and you see everything, don't you see a result in all of that? The problem now increasingly is you don't see the best team you don't know who's going to be playing for England because there's resting and everything else going on and I go back to that point again of jeopardy and it's just so much better a game

any game is surely is better when it matters if you lose and that's how the Champions Trove has managed to hang on up to this point but I think this tournament's an important one for that format of the game there was some talk and some suggestion and rumour that it could become a T20 tournament

in future. So just in case we haven't got enough of those. Just find it on the white ball side. Why don't it make it a hundred? That would make it even more exciting. Well, indeed. Okay, then predictions. I want something really left field and also a dead certainty across test and whiteball

cricket. A couple then, Zoltz. What's your dead certainty to happen in test match cricket over the course of the next 12 months? Well, I think the dead certainty is that we're going to get too absolutely gripping series with England in test cricket against India and Australia.

I wouldn't be surprised if both series are three to one way or the other or two All Affairs a bit of a bit of rain around and yeah I can't I can't wait to see them in terms of left field predictions Henry and this is not something I think will happen but it's something that I think conceivably could happen. Johnny Beirstow opening the batting in the first test in Perth. Oh come on there you go that is left field. Go on then, in test cricket, I mean, I suppose Chuck in there, how many out of the 10 matches, the big test, if you like,

you're England going to win? Yeah, well, that's true. I mean, I do believe, I agree with results. I think they're not going to be, you know, he read out that to 1-0 tied or drawn series if it was against Pakistan in 1954. It doesn't happen anymore. They're going to be 3-2s and 2-3s.

These two series coming up with really tragically, India refusing to play Pakistan test cricket, which it really has to be sorted out by this new ICC administration. It cannot carry on like this. It's just not doing anybody any good at all. But without that taking place, these two upcoming test series are the biggest in test cricket. England, India, England, Australia. I really hope, but I think that there will be at the end of the test series in Australia, an increasingly voluble conversation about four-day test cricket. Because if the best series that there are in the world at the moment

simply produce four-day games, it's going to be very hard to argue in favour of five-day test cricket, which I think is a real shame. You need that fifth day. You just really do need that fifth day. But I just think there's mounting pressure. It's happening already. You can hear it in Australia.

and it's getting louder and louder about that argument for having test cricket over four days the argument will be well look let's face it if these two best test series at the moment are only producing four day games what's the point and I really hope that that that doesn't happen utterly left field

something that is going to happen one day whether it happens over the next 12 months or so remains to be seen but playing in the same England team for the first time in where are we? 20 years Flintoff and Vaughn will line up together.

Ah, very good. Right, I like that. And in Test cricket, I want a one word answer from you both who is going to be England as a leading wicket-taker over the next 12 months. Salts.

Ooh. That is a cool. One word. One word. Oh, I think Atkinson again. my other prediction I think South Africa will win the world test championship

that's slightly left field that is left field particularly of the previous record tonight as you see events Agger's leading test test wicket take it for England next 12 months well I know who I want it to be

I want it to be wood because he does work so hard he brings such joy to fast bowling which is hard work he does it with a great smile on his face huge enthusiasm he's got to play enough games

for that to happen and you just obviously seriously doubt that that's going to happen. But just for the sheer joy of doing a really hard job, I'd like it to be Mark Wood, but I think I'm going to go with Zaltz and say

Atkins. He's just a very fine bowler. What about in whiteball cricket? Zaltz, what's your dead certainty in your left field prediction? Dead certainty is that well, my left field prediction is that people will realize how ridiculous it is that India are refusing to play in Pakistan and

cricket will come to its senses. It seems that all the players want to play against each other. You know, whether, you know, Agas mentioned the sort of test cricket. They used to play all the time. And I know there's, you know, sort of deep and complicated political issues behind it. But the fans all want to see it. Whenever we see a game on neutral territory, the fans always seem to get on really well, great atmosphere in the grounds. So, but yeah, in terms of white ball cricket, my dead certainty is that people will be talking about the death of 50 over cricket throughout the year that seems now inevitable

particularly the more dramatic World Cup's become the more people say that the format is dead hackers left field suggestion whiteboard cricket England will win the Champions trophy okay

dead cert they won't fine I'll take that we can go with that and it'll be very interesting it's a short sharp tournament and you can find if you get on a role that you can win it from improbable positions

that's not forget Fakhuzaman in the final of the 2017 tournament when he got Pakistan over the line I'm going to chuck in one left field suggestion that is that the stars will align

and we will see an opening partnership of Phil Salt and Michael Pepper in international cricket and we're not far from it and I for one and very very excited about it. Thank you Agas, thank you Andy Saltzman

we'll hear plenty more from you over the course of the next year and don't forget the Champions Trophy the English homes summer, including those India tests and the game against Zimbabwe. Plus, the Ashes will all be live with full ball-by-ball commentary with test match special on BBC Sounds, plus the women's ashes live from January the 11th, England looking to win the trophy back for the first time in over a decade.

And speaking of BBC Sounds, don't forget, subscribe to the Test Match Special podcast to make sure you don't miss a thing, including No Balls to Cricket podcast with Alex Hartley and Kate Cross, which will be bringing you the preview of 2020. in the women's game early in the new year. Thank you once again, Agers and Andy. And thank you so much for listening. We'll speak you soon.