The Charlie Kirk Show - President Trump's Biggest Endorsement

Episode Date: May 19, 2026

Did the Charlie Kirk Show just swing President Trump's Texas Senate endorsement? The president announced an imminent endorsement on Tuesday morning, and markets showed John Cornyn as the big favorite, but after Ken Paxton's appearance on the show today, the president's endorsement swung in his favor. Today's episode shows it all playing out live. Then, Jay Town analyzes the latest Tyler Robinson hearing and why we should feel confident in the process. Sean Davis breaks down the Thomas Massie primary, and Tyler Bowyer explains Watch every episode ad-free on members.charliekirk.com!    Get new merch at charliekirkstore.com!Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

My name is Charlie Kirk. I run the largest pro-American student organization in the country fighting for the future of our republic. My call is to fight evil and to proclaim truth. If the most important thing for you is just feeling good, you're going to end up miserable. But if the most important thing is doing good, you will end up purposeful. College is a scam, everybody. You've got to stop sending your kids to college. You should get married as young as possible and have as many kids as possible. Go start a turning point USA college chapter. Go start a turning point you would say high school chapter.

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Noble Gold Investments is the official gold sponsor of the Charlie Kirk Show, a company that specializes in gold IRAs and physical delivery of precious metals. Learn how you could protect your wealth with noble gold investments at nobelgoldinvestments.com. That is noble goldinvestments.com. We have much to get to, and we're getting started with a bang here. We have Ken Paxton, of course, who's running for U.S. Senate from the great state of Texas, joining by phone. Welcome to the show, sir. Hey, thanks for having me on. Good to be back. Well, listen, we booked you, sir, to talk about early voting, which, began yesterday and we encourage everybody to get out and vote early in Texas. Ken Paxton,

vote Ken Paxton. But then some news broke this morning where the president of the United States, President Trump, was speaking with reporters. And he says at 1230 Eastern today, so in approximately 23 minutes, he is going to make an endorsement one way or the other in your race for Senate. And I will say it. We love the president. We have his back. But, regardless in this instance of the decision he makes, turning point action is already endorsed for you, sir. We're proud of that endorsement. We stand by it.

And we think you're the right man for the job. We think you are supported by the base, the grassroots, by the conservative movement, regular Americans. And Cornyn is the guy of the corporate class. He's the guy of the establishment. Tell us your reaction to this news, sir. What are you looking for? Look, I'm always excited.

I've obviously been a supporter of President Trump for a long time. I'm stuck with them through even the tough times when they were going after. I went to his trial when no one else showed up, but the sun. And anyway, I trust the president. I know he'll make a good decision. I'm continuing my fight right now with Gordon during this early voting period and really need the support of Texans. But we all know that Donald Trump's endorsement is the most significant endorsement in the country. And maybe the most significant endorsement in my lifetime.

I've never seen anybody have such an impact on elections as the president, as his endorsement has. Well, I agree with you. He is the leader of the party, the leader of the movement. And his endorsement carries a lot of weight. In this instance, sir, I want to play two different clips from Charlie Kirk talking about this. He was a huge supporter of yours. He believed that you are the fighter that we need in D.C. And we've seen this incrementally.

Blake talks about it a lot, that race by race, senator by senator. or congressman by congressman we're getting better stronger that fighting spirit that the president has injected into the conservative movement you are an inheritor of that you are a product of that sir i believe you had it before but you certainly have grabbed onto it onto it and you you carry the mantle of america first uh as well as anybody in the country uh attorney general mr attorney general paxton and uh i think charlie saw this in you and he saw the opposite frankly in john coran i'm going to play this clip this is from 2023 Charlie was really upset.

Sot 1. I have never, in my 10 years of doing this, seen such an intentional, brazen, and defiant mode of action as what I have just seen from John Corny. I have never seen in my 10 years of doing this, someone so openly rebuked by their voters and then so quickly turning 180 degrees around

and saying, I don't care. Cornyn doesn't like you. And he jokes about it actually. Cornyn hates you. He knows he'll still get money from his corporate donors. He knows that. Instead of being allied with his voters,

it'd be like, maybe there's something I could learn here. He pokes him in the eye and says, no, no, no, no. I'm the senator. You, you're the serf. what do you think Mr. Attorney General when you hear Charlie saying those things about your opponent here? I couldn't agree with Amora. I was there. I know exactly what he's talking about. He's gone against our Republican base over and over for his entire 42 years in office.

And I think what he's referring to in that message is he's talking about when he sided with Joe Biden on restricting Second Amendment rights. And when he did that, he got booed at the Texas Republican Convention for 30 straight minutes while he spoke. And after he left, he had complete disdain for the voters thinking these guys don't matter. They're all just fringe. But guess what, John, those are our people. Those are the people you should actually care about. And he had complete disdain. And he's never come back to speak at the Republican Convention again.

He ignores us and says, we don't matter because I've got Washington money. I've got Washington support. And I don't need the Republicans of Texas. Amen. So here's, let's just call out the elephant in the room here. Ken, you've got people in the party, in the establishment, especially in D.C. that say you can't win a general. You can't win a race. You're too conservative. You're too America first. You're too MAGA. You can't win against Tal RICO. What's your response to that? Well, the first thing is they told Donald Trump the same thing, right, that he couldn't win. they've told me that for three, I've run in three general elections in Texas, that means the entire state had the vote.

And in each of those, with little money, I outperformed what everybody expected me to do. I competed equally with other Republicans that had a hundred times of the money that I had. I get out spent by a lot of money, and yet I've always performed better than these naysayers talk about. There's no polling that suggests that what they're saying is true. John Cornyn's used this as a talking point

because he knows that the road. Republican base does not appreciate how he's treated them for the last 42 years. And they're sick of it. And he's like, well, it doesn't matter because I'm still a Republican. I'm better than in Colorado Rica. I'm the only one that can win. That's just not true. The polling doesn't suggest it. As a matter of fact, I actually outperform them in some of these polls. And I think it's because people have no energy for John Corny because he has done nothing in 42 years that is good. No one's ever been able to name that. I've talked to thousands of people. And I've asked him the same question over and over in every meeting. What have you done good for

In 42 years, can you name one thing and no one's ever named it. Mr. Attorney General, I think you've just hit the nail on the head here. I believe that your race is one of the most, if not the most critical race in this midterm. And I'll explain why. You have to give the base some reason to turn out. And you are the basis fighter. You are the chosen fighter for the grassroots. The core constituency that is going to show up in a midterm wants to vote.

vote for you. They will come out to the polls to vote for you. They will get enthusiastic for you. Midterms are a turnout election exercise. And if there is not a reason for the base to turn out, they will not, they will stay at home. They will not come out. And you are the guy that inspires them, that gives them enthusiasm, that gives them faith that they have a fighter being sent to Washington, D.C. And so that's the whole crux of the issue here. If you take away their fighter, they may just stay home. And you get James Talrico. Yeah, I totally agree with you. Look, people have to have a reason to get out and vote.

This is a competitive state. We're going to win it, but it is still competitive. We still have to have somebody that has a message. And the message can't be, well, I've been there a long time. So just keep voting for me. I don't do anything good. I do some bad stuff. Yeah, a lot of bad stuff.

That's not enough to get you elected in Texas anymore. You actually have to have a message of hope and opportunity and a conservative message that inspires people to get out. And that's what we're doing with this campaign. And we're going to beat John Corny. And then we're going to beat James Hullerigo. Mr. Attorney General, how much did you win your last general election race by? How many points?

It was like 10 points, close to 10 points. I don't remember exactly this is right around 10. So you just won by 10 points, but you can't win a general. That's their best line against you. You just won by 10 points. Yes. Yes. Yes. And I spent a fraction of the money of other statewives who also won by 10.

I think the governor won by 11. been video you know he spent two 200 million or hundred yeah i was going to say how how much money has been wasted in your primary battle thus far by republican republican republican by the way this isn't trying to beat democrats this is republican on republican how much has been spent against you how much do you how much do you predict is going to be spent against you when this is said and done so in the first round the first in the primary before the run of the hundred million so i'm guessing somewhere between total of 130 and 150 million dollars that could have gone to north carolina that could have gone to Georgia that could have gone to Maine, and yet for some reason, they decided to waste it on John

Cornyn. That's a crime against the GOP base, sir. We have your back, and we're going to be watching this endorsement closely. Mr. President, we hope you make the right decision here. We believe in you, and we trust you. And Ken Paxton's the guy for Texas and for the country. Ken Paxton, good luck, sir. We got your back. Thank you. That was a fantastic discussion with Attorney General Ken Paxton and like I said the president is scheduled to make his endorsement at 1230. Maybe he'll endorse both. He's done that before. He has. He has. Well, he did it with the Biggs and Karen Taylor Robson before she dropped out of the governor race here in Arizona. You know, that wouldn't be the worst thing ever. I'm going to tell you guys about strongsell.com.

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Yeah, that's, he missed, he missed his weekend days. I miss my weekend. You're going to get sick again. I usually bring it home with me on the weekends. So, and I forgot this week. All right, here real quick, we got to play one of the, clip about Charlie and Ken Paxton. Didn't have enough time in the last segment.

This is from, it looks like, April of 2025, SOT 8. You have John Cornyn who's been around for quite a while. John Cornyn has had some very, let's say, questionable votes in the last couple of years. And primaring him is Ken Paxton, the Attorney General of Texas. Unfortunately, we've seen a pattern of people that go to the U.S. Senate and they just kind of lose their gusto and their spirit. I don't think we're going to see that from you. Charlie giving his vote of confidence to Cornyn, what do you make, or to Ken Paxson, what do you make of this moment that we're about to watch? How important do you think it is, Blake?

I mean, fairly important. Well, it's interesting that President Trump is waiting into this because he often has preferred to stay out, I feel, of races that. that do seem genuinely 50-50 because the president the president likes to he cares about getting guys who are allies but he also just cares a lot about being the winner who's always decisive and deciding things and he very much wants to avoid any race

where he could make an endorsement and then fall short and so I almost wonder what this pitch to them is looking like is the pitch them actually saying Cornyn is the better ally or are they just saying Cornyn's got it locked up you want to just make this call because he'll win. And as we know, it's actually quite a bit closer than that. I think, I think Paxton is actually ahead in most polls over Cornyn right now. So maybe President Trump has seen enough and realizes that Paxton's the guy of the people, although I will say it looks like the odds have it,

the betting odds have it. Cornyn has just searched 80% in the betting odds to get the endorsement. And I just want to say, even if that happens, turning point action's endorsement is not going to change. We still have Ken Paxons back. I think the people of Texas have Ken Paxons back, especially in a primary vote. And we made the point in that interview with Ken that, yeah, okay, the dig on you is that you're too conservative. You can't win a general. But he won his last race by 10 points in the state of Texas. I think President Trump won the 2024 election by 14 in Texas, 13 or 14.

So President Trump outperformed that by a few points, but not by that much. And so, you know, Texas is a state that's more and more competitive. We understand that dynamic, but it's still a conservative state. Ken Paxton still has the edge. It doesn't matter if you send Cornyn or Paxton up, I think, just from a polling standpoint. But I think in the midterm, when you don't have President Trump on the ballot, you have, if you're going to energize the base to turn out, you got to have somebody with a spine with America First credentials to drive that election. The most important thing is votes. You just can't have a senator from Texas who is a Republican and is a Republican.

amnesty. Yeah, 100%. Cornyn is. You can't... Cornyn is a squish on the... He is from a bygone era where they don't see immigration the same way we do. They don't see the social issues the same way we do. They're dinosaurs. And President Trump defies that

because he sort of was the instrument to bring some of this to bear and get it to the forefront, to get us talking about immigration in the right way, to get us talking about social issues with a spine and with a backbone. Cornyn didn't adopt that. One of the first things when I was at Fox in 2017, we were getting leaks from staffers in Cornyn's office that he was

not aligned on immigration. And in fact, he was saying one thing and doing another in private. And we were getting things of that nature from his office. That was nine years ago. And okay, nothing's changed since then. What is the justification for keeping this guy around? Because he'll still be around six years from now if he wins again. And this is the whole thing. You have to give the base hope that the promises are being fulfilled from the election. All right, you see some fraying at the edges of the coalition. Well, that happens when they feel like promises are not getting fulfilled, right? You saw this with Iran. No new wars. We got a war. Okay. We're going to trust the president that he doesn't get us into quagmires and forever wars. But there is, you know, there is a leash there.

there is a patience quotient that can be exhausted, right? And so even President Trump, you know, I just, I think he's got to remember that his base is begging and pleading that the things that he promised in 2024 get accomplished. I think the president's doing amazing work on so many different issues, tariffs, bringing back domestic manufacturing, the spirit of growth and optimism, the golden era, all of those things, immigration enforcement, the borders closed. There's a lot to praise the president about. end of DEI and the resurgence of meritocracy throughout the government. We have the lowest federal government employment rates since 19, I believe, 1966. So we're making a lot of headway, right? There's 300,000 plus federal employees that either no longer have a job or the position hasn't been filled because they are cutting the fat or cutting fraud. J.D. Vance at the president's direction is doing a tremendous job. I actually have an op-ed coming out on Thursday about this. So many good things to praise and to celebrate. And one of those core pieces is personnel. The president's done such a good job picking better people in Trump 2.0 than he did in Trump 1.0. Of course, you're still going to get

some traitors and some saboteurs that come through and that they find a way into the mix. But that's the exception, not the rule this time. Also, Senate, Congress, you've got to have fighters that have your back. The Democrats stick together like White on Rice. They are inseparable. They vote as a block, and we need to get better as conservatives to have people like Ken Paxton that are going to have your back when the chips are down and things are tough and your back against a wall. So that is Ken Paxton. He's a fighter that has shown. It doesn't matter what you throw at this guy. He's going to fight and he's going to fight and he's going to fight just like the president. So we've got to have more guys like Ken Paxton and D.C. The guy can win a general. He's going to take down Tal RICO. He's going to energize the base in an off-year election where President Trump is not on the ballot. Gotta have an excuse to get out. Ken Paxton will energize the base and get those votes out.

President Trump has announced his endorsement, and even though all of 10 minutes ago, it was 80% for Cornyn, he is endorsing Ken Paxton. Ken Paxton, do we have the applause track in there? There we go. It's a very long one. We'll do a few highlight lines. He says the highly respected Attorney General of Texas,

Ken Paxton, and America First Patriot, and someone who has always been extremely loyal to me and our amazing MAGA movement is running for the U.S. Senate to represent a place I love and won big three times with 6.4 million votes in 2024. The most in the history of the state, by far. Very Trumpian tweet here. But he says, I know Ken well. He is a winner.

Ken is a strong supporter of terminating the filibuster and very importantly, the Save America Act. And I want to, goes on for a bit. Ken will help me do all the things I want, making America bigger, better and stronger than ever before. Ken is a true MAGA warrior who has always delivered for Texas. will continue to do so in the United States Senate. He says John Cornyn is a good man and I worked well with him, but he is not supportive of me when times were tough. And despite having the most successful economy in the history of the country in my first term, John was very late in backing me in what turned out to be a historic run for the Republican nomination and then the presidency. Ken has gone through a lot

and in many cases very unfairly, but he is a fighter and knows how to win. Ken Paxton will never let you down. Donald Trump, President of the United States. I want to celebrate this. This is a good, good moment for the base, good moment for the coalition. I think this is the 100% correct decision. And again, we talk about coalition building.

We talk about keeping that 2024 coalition together. This is an endorsement that helps him do that. So very, very good news here. Very, very happy that this is the decision that was made when a lot of people said it was going to go the other way. The prediction markets had

80% Cornyn, just minutes ago. You would have lost a lot of money on that bet. So there you are. So well done, President Trump. If you're watching, I was told that it was possible you were watching this morning. So if you're still watching, congratulations on a great decision. Charlie used to talk a lot about Angel Studios and what they were building. And as you know, I've been a long time fan of it for the same reason. So I wanted to share some of my favorite films and shows on Angel. And I put them all into one. easy to use watch list. This is content that's actually worth your time, not just noise or recycle talking points, but stories that go a level deeper and ask better questions. That's what stands out about Angel to me. They're willing to put out films and documentaries that don't just follow the usual script, especially when it comes to politics, culture, and the bigger conversations you and I should be having. So on my watch list, you'll find picks that lean into those

topics, but there are also solid options for family or just something meaningful to watch at the end of a stressful day. If you want to check it out, go to angel.com slash Charlie and take a look at the watch list I put together. I want to bring in Jay Town, who is a career prosecutor. He's a newsmax contributor, but he's been in so many criminal cases, violent crimes, death penalty cases. Jay, welcome back to the show, sir.

Great to have you. So this morning, there is ongoing right now. there is a trial as a hearing um going on uh judge tony graph is hearing arguments uh from the defense on various topics um you you know you've been you had a busy morning but you're catching bits and pieces of it here j um it seems to be most of this around so far has been around as they're trying to get the prosecutor one of the prosecutors held in contempt for breaking a gag order and it appears to be related to that atf report which was the first time we had you uh on the show What are you hearing and seeing, Jay?

Yeah, so Rule 3.6 of the rules of professional responsibility, which every lawyer has to follow. And as a prosecutor, relevant here, says that it involves pretrial publicity. And so you can't make extrajudicial statements, meaning out-of-court statements, that would materially prejudice the defendant. So let's say I know something is hearsay in inadmissible, but I go on TV and I talk about that evidence, knowing that a jury's never going to hear it. That is an extrajudicial statement that does materially prejudice a defendant and is prohibited. The problem, and I'm glad the state prosecutors nailed Robinson's defense counsel on this today,

because this bugged me the first time you had me on your show. And all we had, we didn't have the ATF report at the time. But I told you that I guarantee you that that ATF report suggests that it could not be excluded that the bullet found in Charlie Kirk's body came from that rifle. It wasn't just that they were unable to identify a match between the bullet and the rifle, and that it was a 30-caliber class bullet, meaning that's the type of bullet that is fired from the gun that has Robinson's DNA on it. But that was excluded from the defense counsel's motion.

Sure enough, we get the ATF report. It's exactly what it said. We also understand that it says it's unable to identify or exclude, right? or exclude, meaning we don't know because it was such a badly damaged, shrapneled, mushroomed, round that was found in Charlie's body. So we just can't give any meaningful analysis to it to match the striations of the 30-0.6 that was fine. And Jay, just don't mean to interrupt you, but I got to throw this original image up. So this all came back down to the Daily Mail article that came out at the time, which let's just read their headline. here. Bullet used to kill Charlie Kirk did not, all caps. Did not match. Not match rifle allegedly

used by suspect Tyler Robinson new court filing claims. This sent the internet and the Twitter sphere absolutely bonkers ablaze crazy, right? So for like, it was like 36 hours. This thing did, I don't know, 40 million engagements on Twitter alone, let alone all the YouTube videos that were made of it, TikToks and everything. So this misleading headline went probably three times around the world before the truth had a chance to get his pants on. And so the defense attorney or the prosecutors apparently, let me just pull up the exact quote, because it is important. I want to make sure I get my exact quote here, sir. He apparently spoke to the press, and this would be Chris Ballard on the prosecution's team,

said when a bullet fragment analysis comes back as inconclusive, that means the fragment did not contain enough detail for the examiner to say one way or the other. We have ample evidence to demonstrate beyond a reasonable doubt that Tyler Robinson committed this murder, and we will present some of that evidence at the upcoming preliminary hearing, and then we will present all of that evidence at the trial. When you hear that quote directly, so this is the quote in question that they're saying that Chris Ballard should be held in contempt for making that statement to the press, When you see it in context, right, of what the media was doing, the Daily Mail article specifically, that you came on the show the next day to rebut, what do you feel like he broke that rule or do you think he's well within his rights?

No, absolutely not. And here's why. The defense motion that said that they were unable to identify that bullet matching the gun and that they want to call the ATF now to present excurs. It's exculpatory, meaning not guilty, didn't do it. You can't prove this beyond a reasonable doubt because there is exculpatory evidence in this ATF report. That's what the defense motion said. Like you said, that went around the world before the truth could put on its pants. And so under Rule 3.6, that was heavily cited by defense counsel today,

it allows the prosecution to go out and correct the record when they have been materially prejudiced by incorrect and misleading statements. And he nailed the defense counsel. He didn't say that it was their intent. And he didn't blame the media for running with it. Who wouldn't? If you read that motion, you think, oh, my God, the bullet doesn't match the gun.

I knew what it meant because I've read hundreds of firearms and toolmark reports from the ATF. But in the defense counsel knew what it meant, too. Being too smart by half and they were called on it today, I don't think the judge is going to fall for this. This is absurd to me. Maybe he'll entertain some more motions. but there is nothing contemptuous about correcting the record when they've been materially prejudiced, they being the state of Utah.

Well, and listen, I don't mean to read too deeply into this, Blake, you're not an attorney, but you sometimes play one on TV. The, but their motion that they made that the Daily Mail extracted that headline for, it left out all of the other perspective, right? And so the prosecution is sitting there. meanwhile like I said the story's getting millions and millions of engagement it's getting people are getting worked into a lather in the conspiracy realms and this cottage industry that's been drummed up and so if we're talking about prejudicing a defendant or a jury or whatever that's the prejudice that I'm seeing so you almost are obligated it seems to me to have to give something of the contrary to give the other side of the coin as it were at that that's well it's I'm not a lawyer, but that feels reasonable to me. Well, and you're doing an excellent job.

It's showing that it's not that difficult, right? Yeah. But they have a duty. The prosecution has a duty to be zealous under the same rules of professional conduct. And they have a duty to correct the public record. Remember, they didn't comment until that ATF report was unsealed and became public. And it was several weeks, if not well over a month that went by between that. to fail it was months between that defense counsel's motion, the reporting, and when it be,

you know, got corrected. And we did that on your show. It said exactly what you and I talked about. It would say. So this is part of their duty actually to correct the record because it is impacting their jury pool if they don't. And that's not zealous defense of your client. Their client being the state of Utah, the laws of the state of Utah and the people who reside there. So they did exactly what they're supposed to do today. What happens if Chris Ballard is found in contempt? What are the consequences and the ramifications? I don't see a universe where that happens, Andrew, honestly. But what I'll say is that, I mean, he could be fined.

He could be told he can't do it again. He could be reported to the bar. He's not going to be removed from the case. None of that's going to happen. What Ballard did was not contemptuous. He's not a contemnour as a new word that the defense liked to say several times today, as if they just read an appellate brief. So it is, to me, I find it incredible.

that we're even there today, not to mention that they want to close the entire preliminary hearing down so the media can't watch all this evidence against Tyler Robinson in which there is mounting. And I'll suggest that they can waver prelim hearing anytime they want to. They don't have to have it if they think it's going to prejudice their client. Instead, they want to keep a public trial, which is a constitutional right, out of public view. And that's an absurd. The judge wasn't buying that either. I mentioned I want to get Blake in here because, you know, one of the,

the pushbacks to the last hearing from the defense was that they hadn't got all the discovery. Now they're saying that we've handed over all the discovery. We've gotten additional discovery, including thousands and thousands of files from ring cameras and residential neighborhoods and stuff like that. How much is that element of this discovery? Is that going to play into this case, do you believe? Yeah. Well, and very quickly, before I answer your question, I just want to say that the reach of this show in Charlie Kirk's legacy continues well beyond Charlie Kirk's death. My wife texted me during the break saying she's actually watching me. I didn't even tell her I was going to be on. But that's just how my family loves you guys and loves what you're doing. Love Charlie and the Kirk family. And I'm glad to be helping out

with this story. To answer your question, the next thing, and she's beautiful and I love my wife. What I can tell you is, yeah, is that they're going to, the next complaint is going to be there's too much discovery, right? We can't possibly go through it all. We need years and experts and more money and software to kind of parse through it. And so that's going to be the next door. Give us it all. Well, now you've given us too much. How can we possibly get through all of this before the prelim? Let's extend that out another year because we have all this video to watch and we have to have an expert tell us what's wrong with his gait when he's walking with the gun down his pants, for instance. And so those are, those are all just defense tactics. And I don't think the, I think the judge is

tiring quickly of this defense team. Yeah, I noticed that too. Some of, uh, in the clips, you hear judge Graff actually going, isn't that too broad? Isn't that too far? Like, he does seem to be losing some page. I don't know if you're seeing the same thing, Blake, but that's what I'm just, I just keep thinking about the bigger picture thing that we've had, what, a dozen hearings at this point by now. All these back and forth motions. They want to push back this hearing. We literally, we haven't entered a plea so far to my understanding. And I'm looking at the timeline of other famous trials. In the O.J. Simpson case, he was arraigned and pleaded not guilty eight days after the murder.

And like a few days after the... We still don't have a plea. Yeah. And here we still have no plea. What do you read into that, Jay? My bigger picture question that I'd like to answer is, is this quirks of Utah law? Is this quirks of modern capital case law? Is all of this normal?

And we just normally don't see it because cases aren't. this high profile or is this case truly unusual? Great question. So I will say for capital litigation, I've been apart. I've put people on death row twice and it doesn't sound like a large number. It's a huge number. And I've been a part of capital litigation and I can tell you this is, this is perfectly normal. Defense counsel, every single stone that they can overturn or every Every single angle or sliver of an argument that they can make they're going to make for the record. They know the result of it. The judge is going to entertain it.

He's not going to throw papers in the air and his hands in the air because they've all conceded in their minds at this moment. I guarantee you that Tyler Robinson will be found guilty and that he will be sentenced to death. And that's why they are peppering the record with all these little tiny issues about contempt or, you know, open courtrooms in the media, and we've gotten too much discovery and you're rushing us. Those are just things that appellate courts will review and determine if a Fifth Amendment right was violated because of that speed. That's why the judge is being so deliberate in this case. Yeah. So that, I mean, that's been my read as well, Jay. It feels like the judge is aware of the strategy here to pepper the record, try and get something that make him make a mistake so that it can be

reviewed on appeal or overturned or re-litigated in some way, shape, or form or fashion in the future. It feels like, though, Judge Graff is on to this, and he's playing this very deliberately, very fairly on purpose. I have one other question here, Jay, for you. So, you know, the issue of was Tyler Robinson radicalized by outsiders? Did other people know it? You know, I believe that those investigations are still ongoing technically by the FBI. I would love more intel on it, candidly.

but do you believe that that plays any role in the prosecution of Tyler Robinson specifically, right? So we know we have a mountain of evidence that suggests that he was the individual that pulled the trigger. He's, you know, confessions pulled in, you know, brought in by family members, all of these things, DNA, the bullets, the gun. But if there's other people involved, how does that impact? Because I do believe that's still an open question that's fair to ask. But how does that impact what goes on with Tyler Robinson? Yeah, the only way it would, I mean, so it does. It doesn't impact his guilt at all.

I mean, if there was 20 co-conspirators and we didn't know who they were, and Tyler Robinson is still going to trial for the death of Charlie Kirk, and he's still facing the death penalty. So it doesn't change any of the evidence or the proofs against him. The only thing that if there was such a thing and he knew about them, the state could to deal with him to get more information about those individuals. That's the only sort of value to Charlie Kirk. could sort of minimize the exposure to his sentence.

But otherwise, it doesn't, it's not exculpatory, if anything, if there's co-conspirators, it's just more evidence of the crime itself and the premeditation. That's right. That's not helpful to him if he's going to suggest, as they have continued to do, that he's not guilty. I would suggest to you that the evidence is, I've proven cases beyond a reasonable doubt with way less evidence than what the state of Utah has against Tyler Robinson. Yeah, and in some ways, when you talk about discovery, and just how much there is, it's kind of like, it's all sort of the context, the underlying context

is just this mountain of evidence that's going to be very difficult for the defense to argue against. Yeah. Jaytown, thank you so much. Yeah. Where can people follow you, Jay, as you're doing analysis on this and other cases? You can find me at JTown, Alabama on X. And thanks for having me on, guys. God bless you. Yeah, God bless you too. Thank you for being willing to jump on. I know you had a busy morning, Jay. So thank you so much. Sean Davis, co-founder and CEO of the Federalist, joins us now. We're going to talk shop, talk politics. Sean, President Trump made the right decision in Texas. The betting odds before that decision were made had corned up at like 80% odds of getting the endorsement. President Trump defies the betting odds, goes with the proven America first fighter. Ken Paxton, your reaction? I think my main reaction was relief. I saw that same.

announcement that everyone else said that Trump was going to endorse in the Senate race. And after seeing him go and go endorse Amnesty, Mike Lawler, New York, and then go after Bovert, he's, you know, BFFs with Graham. I thought, oh, crap, we're screwed again. But no, we were not screwed. Trump came through. He endorsed Ken Paxton. And what I find most interesting about this is all that John Cornyn had to do was past the Save America Act. Ken Paxton said he would drop out if John Cornyn passed it. Trump said he would. endorse him if he passed it. And not only did he not pass it, he didn't even try. So it's amazing to me that I guess John Cornyn wanted to be a private citizen more than he wanted to enact voter ID

and secure our elections. I mean, it's an interesting flex from him, but one that's kind of fascinating to me. That's actually, I think that's the best way I've heard it put yet. Like we were mentioning John Cornyn, we were getting told I was at Fox nine years ago and we were getting leaks about how he loves amnesty, opposes Trump on immigration. But yeah, these guys who love staying in office as much as they do, they love just clinging to power through every change of the waves, but he can't concede on an issue where he's not even in alignment with his base. It'd be one thing if you are unwilling to give up on an issue that had been a Republican cause forever

or this conservative cause and you just won't compromise. But he's not willing to compromise on an issue where he agrees with the left to stay in office. It just puts it perfectly. And yeah, Save America Act could have saved him. Instead, he cannot save himself. Do we have intel on where he stands on the filibuster? I think he has generally supported it. But, you know, I think we've talked about it on the show before. You didn't actually need to get rid of the filibuster in order to pass the Save America Act. We just had to have 50 Republican senators who went to work every day and we're going to be on the floor every day to exhaust Democrat filibuster options. You didn't have to nuke the filibuster, but I guess working five days a week was also too much to ask of John. That's asking a lot. That's asking a lot, Sean. You know, by the way, Blake's made this point a lot. And so Blake, feel free to chime in. But the, the, enacting the actual talking filibuster, right, where they have to debate and have to show up and you have to get a quorum and all of these things would do so much good for the United States Senate, Sean, because it would restore the body to what it should be.

It's a real Senate. You can't have John Corny's anymore who BS you who lie to you for years on end. I would love to do this thing, but we just don't have 60 votes for it. And they fill their days with like pointless, you know, rubber chicken meetings and like, you know, side meetings and lobbyist meetings. Instead of doing the people's work on the floor of the Senate, that is, that to me is why we can't get them to gather for five days a week and do like a nine to five like everybody else. We're not asking for, you know, over time. Well, maybe we would. But the point is they should be willing to do it.

You're one of 100 people in the country that it was blessed with this job. Show up for it. But instead, they know that their job is a bunch of smoke and mirrors garbage, where it's just like presenting the greatest deliberative body. No, you are not the greatest deliberative body anymore. You've turned into a shadow of yourself, a husk of your former self, and you don't show up for work because you have meetings all day with lobbyists and donors and blah, blah, blah. So anyways, I'm completely with you.

I think Ken Paxson, I agree, Sean, there's a little bit of relief because on some level it probably shouldn't have been this hard. But I'm glad that it happened. I feel like it's a shot in the arm for the base heading into the midterms. It is. And man, when we talk about the destruction of the Senate, it would be easy to be like, Harry Reid did it. And this was all the Democrats. The reality is that the Senate was killed in a very bipartisan manner by both Mitch McConnell and Harry Reid. and they effectively turns the Senate into the House.

Now, not that the House is a bad thing, but House has a very different purpose. It exists to represent the people. It is very much majority ruled and has been for a very long time. You don't have an open amendment process. Stuff comes to the floor. You vote it up or down. You move on.

That's not how the Senate was. It's not how the Senate was 15 years ago. It's not how it was 20 years ago. You go and read old transcripts of Senate floor debates from like the 60s and 70s and even into the 80s. And you had individual senators without the help of staff doing extemporaneous colloquies and soliloquies on the finer points of parliamentary procedure. And they were doing it all hours of the day and the night. And instead, what we have now is a gerontocracy of low IQ idiots who really can't even bother to work three days a week for more than six hours a day.

It's a total tragedy. Hopefully we're moving on from that. Hopefully getting someone like Paxton in who's clearly a man of action and gets stuff done. will change that culture. Yeah, and by the way, I think he's going to win the general. I think he's going to run away with it. I think minimum of four points, but I think he could end up winning by like six, seven. I mean, Talrico is going to be a formidable opponent in the Senate.

I think that's a joke. Talrico is a like, listen, I know better. I have fear of the Lord. I'm not going to, I'm not going to debate his eternal destiny or something like that. but I will just say that from a theological standpoint, the guy is a complete woke joke. This is the kind of Christianity that dies on the vine that empties the pews and church building shudder when they endorse. Okay, like whatever he's preaching is the complete opposite of what I read in scripture. And so for him to sort of like come out here is this like Hicklib, you know, Christian.

And now he's got a girlfriend apparently, which was up for debate, whether or not that was something that was feasible for him. So anyways, we're finding out this guy's going to be, you know, appealing to that sort of Heartland, Texas, G. G. G. Schucks, Christianity thing here. The Ned Flanders, Christian, whatever you want to call it, I think it's a complete turnoff for Texans. And I think Ken Paxton's going to absolutely run away with it. What's your take on when this gets to the general? Because I think at this point, Paxton's up in the primary. The endorsement's going to underscore that and help him. Let's just assume Paxton wins the primary. How do you see this? general playing out. I think I tend to your point of view here, and I look at 2018, kind of as my benchmarks. That was a very bad year for Republicans. It was a blue wave for Democrats. We had Ted Cruz running for re-election. Cruz was not particularly likable. It wasn't really all that popular. Doesn't have a lot of the charisma you might want a politician, but he voted solid. He was dependable. And then he was going up against a fundraising powerhouse in Robert Francis O'Rourke, aka Beto. Don't know how he got that.

The fake Hispanic Irishman. That was Charlie's favorite. He raised like $100 million, something insane. He's still lost by four points. So I feel like Tala Rico's high watermark is going to be losing by four. Now granted, it may be a worse cycle this time. Who knows? Numbers aren't looking great, although they can change.

But Tala RICO is far less talented than Beto ever was. He is so much more gross and slimy and fake. And again, I'm comparing him to one of the fakesest candidates in history. So, no, I think Paxton wins by five, six, seven, eight, somewhere in that neighborhood. Okay. I love that. I love that estimation because I think it's accurate. I think it's accurate.

All right, Sean. Now is the time we're going to get into the sassy-massy race that is captivating the conservative movement and then beyond, actually. I did a little research on this yesterday, Sean, and it's about five percent. of Massey's war chest, he's raised a lot of money in this race, is coming from Kentuckyans. The rest is coming from California, Florida, Texas. There's a big libertarian movement that tends to throw in behind their candidates when they're running. And so I think we're seeing a lot of that happen. But there's also been a lot of money spent against him, a lot of PACs, a lot of pro-Israel packs. Again, that's not necessarily

foreign money. I don't think it is. It's Americans that support Israel, whatever, that they're supporting Galrin. So what are you looking at when you're, you see this race, how do you size it up and who's going to win? Yeah, great question. If you made me bet, if I were a betting man, which I'm not, I think I would put my money on Galrine. Odds-wise, he seems to be like a 60-40 favorite, maybe 55-45. It's a weird race.

And you said heading into break that your listener feedback has been all over the place. I kind of feel like I'm personally representative of that because I, I like Massey, and also he drives me nuts. And on some areas, I think he's really, really good. And on some areas, I think he's a total phony and fake. And then I look at his opponent, and he seems like kind of just a thumb to me. Like, I don't know what he's got going on beyond the Trump. He's just, he's there.

He's there. Yeah. I don't know what else is going on. You know, he's got Trump's endorsement, which is not nothing that's huge. And I look at this race, and it almost seems to me to be emblematic of a lot of the fissures that we're seeing developing in the Republican Party. Now, I don't know if it's driven by how the Epstein stuff was handling by the Iran War, but we had this massive coalition, a historic coalition in 2024 that elected Trump in overwhelming margins. He won every swing state.

He won the popular vote. And then now we're less than two years later, and we seem very fractured and, you know, different factions are all over the place. And I just feel like this race is a microcosm of what's happening within the Republican Party. And I kind of wish we could heal those fractures, get back to all the things that we agree on, instead of fighting over the little things we disagree on. And so I think the race just makes me sad, honestly. Yeah, I think that's well put. I feel the same.

I mean, I was very clear yesterday. I like him on Maha. I like him on war. Like him on the budget. I think he got over his skis a little bit on Epstein. Blake, I think he could even like more. He could fight, I think, for more transparency on that. But instead he's openly just said, oh, you know, I agree with my party, except when they're protecting pedophiles.

Yeah. He's really pushing this whole narrative that aligns with lunatics and also the far left that, oh, there's this Epstein class. They're trafficking all these kids. It's not a thing that is, it's not one, it's not true, but it's also just incredibly reckless. And it's blowing everything up. So this is very interesting. President Trump has chimed in again, and we've seen him chime in on the Massey topic. He's very, very adamant about it. We know that. But Hegset chimed in, SOP 4.

Because after you've led men in life and death situations, the games that are played inside the Beltway start looking pretty small. Now contrast that with what we've gotten from Tom Massey. At some point, being against everything becomes an excuse for accomplishing nothing. At some point, constant obstruction is not leadership. It's just commentary. it's obstruction. President Trump does not need more people in Washington who are trying to make a point,

especially from his own party. He needs people willing to help him win to vote with him when it matters the most. All right. So that is noteworthy. You also had Stephen Miller donning a MAGA cap, which the guy is MAGA as it comes, but I don't think I've ever seen him wearing an actual MAGA hat. And, you know, he's basically going after the fact that he voted no on the one big beautiful bill, which is the signature border bill, ICE, border patrol, mass deportations.

He claims he chose illegals, left-wing NGOs, and refugee industrial complex over you, your family, and your kids. Okay, here's my concern. So obviously, the Trump administration's full force. My concern is that the kids like Massey. So attorney point, we're always talking to the younger voters, college kids. They like Massey. And what I'm most concerned is that the fissure is really becoming a generational. Charlie was extraordinarily worried about this with Operation Midnight Hammer with the Epstein stuff.

He saw the writing on the wall. That has continued to play out. And honestly, the ends are getting further apart. He has punk energy. Yeah, he does have. So how do we, I mean, this is why I'm saying, like, if Massey wins, I'm going to be okay with it. If Galerain wins, I'm going to be okay with it either way. I'm like you.

I just want the coalition together. Final minute, Sean. Yeah, it's. It's the fracture there that I find worrisome, and it is very real. I think if you looked at the poll numbers in that state, basically everyone under 40 was overwhelmingly for Massey, and then everyone above was overwhelmingly against him. And it's interesting, this isn't the first time he and Trump have gone toe to toe. It happened in 2020 as well, because Massey was very much not a fan of the COVID stuff,

to Massey's credit. And Massey swatted away that prime. challenge very easily, but it feels like it's different this time around, that it's not purely issues-based, that it's a lot of personality-based. And personally, I think the thing that I find most annoying on the Massey side is the guy never mentioned Epstein before 2025. I think he tweeted about it three times. Trump gets in and magically overnight. It's the most important thing he cares about. That just looks fake to me. It looks like clout chasing and podcast chasing. but I agree with you.

It's this fissure between the old and the new and the old and the young that makes this a real problem for the right. Sean, great analysis. Really interesting point you just made. Check out the Federalist. They are the best. Sean, we appreciate you, man. We'll see you soon.

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Strongsell.com forward slash Charlie. Check it out right now. We got Tyler Boyer in studio, COO of Turning Point Action. We're doing an action-oriented political hour. So we just had Sean Davis. and that was important. We're talking about Massey, talking about the Cornyn-Paxon thing. And then we're going to go over the races to watch the races in the country that we want to pour all of our attention and energy into.

Without further ado, Tyler, one of the driving forces of the show when Charlie was here and we want to keep it going is that we give the audience the goal, the perspective, the mission. The mission needs to be very, very expressly clear. and you've put together a list of the most important races in the country to keep control of the house, to build towards 2028. Okay. So that's the setup. Here's the payoff. Give us the list. What's the first race that you're watching on your list here?

Well, first off, today's a big day. Obviously, the Paxon news. That was great. It's a huge shift in the movement. And this is why the right has to fight and has to actually take ground. We talked about this all the time with Charlie. is that we have to be on the offense. We have to take ground.

We have to be fighting. And right now, no one is talking enough about where we kill multiple birds with one stone. How the left views everything. They look at the presidential election. They work their way backward. They invest as heavily as possible into the swing states and in the swing districts that help them keep the house that win the Senate. And then other key races. So I'll start from the top.

We've been talking endlessly about the Arizona governor's race. Arizona is so critical for three major reasons. Number one, you have one of the easiest flips back for a Republican governor race, meaning that we have... Biggs. Andy Biggs take out one of the weakest governors in the country in Katie Hobbs, who refuses to debate, hasn't debated in over 2,500 days. Really?

Yeah, she's... a total mess. If you've ever heard our high-pitched voice. But in addition to that, the obvious that's there is Arizona is the most critical state to win in 2028. If Republicans lose Arizona, over two-thirds of all of our chances to win the presidency, go out the window.

Explain that what you're saying there, because I've heard you say that stat. So you're basically breaking down that there's multiple different routes to get to 270, and two-thirds of them require Arizona to work. Yeah. So for our listeners that are new, it takes 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency. There's only so many combinations that can happen. More than two-thirds of all the combinations require you to win Arizona.

So losing Arizona means you lose statistically the presidency in 2028. So setting ourselves up in 2026 to win in 2028 is hugely important. Another really important piece to this is that two of, the arguable 15 or 16 debate upon who you listen to swing districts for house for the house of representatives are in Arizona. We're one of the only states that has swing districts at this point. So we're one of the only ones that has one. We have two and we only have nine congressional districts.

So we have the highest per capita number of swing districts of any state. Okay. So we're a swing state. We got to win for 2028 and we have two. So the two in Arizona that are super important. One is vacated by David Schweikert, who's running a horrible race against Andy Biggs. He's losing by about 50 points. But he's vacated.

So he's out the table. He's out. He's struggled. He had some really bad, really bad things happened in the news. We won't get into it. But, you know, people are kind of happy to be done with him. Jay Feely, who was the kicker for the Cardinals, is running in that district. Joe Chaplick, who has been on the Freedom Caucus in Arizona at the state level is running in that district.

and so you have them duking it out for the primary and then you got to win and keep that seat. The second is Juan Siskamani. So Juan doesn't have a primary. He's running against one of the toughest Democrats, I think in the country, in his district covers kind of Pinal County, so where Mark Lamb is from, Sheriff Mark Lamb,

where he's the sheriff all the way down to Tucson and kind of the northern area of Tucson. Which is not MAGA country so much. Yeah, I mean, look, the outside of Arizona is kind of a funny place where it's either it's deep deep dark blue it's kind of radically blue or in the deep areas or it's radically red and so the tough part is is Juan Suscomani is kind of comes from the more moderate realm and so he attracts some people away from the moderate left if you can if you'll say that but he has a beautiful family awesome

but you know parts of his district are pretty deep red and so you have a have to work really hard to get all the votes out. Is it like an R1, R5? Yeah, depending upon how you look at it, we'll call it, we'll round up to R plus five. Okay. But some make the argument, it's basically an R plus one, R plus two. Yeah, and it's basically a 50-50 in a midterm. And in Arizona one, the one David Schweikert's leaving, is, in most ratings is R-plus-1

or a dead even, it's 50-50. That's like the Scottsdale one. So Kamala actually won that district. David Schweiger won that district. Okay. So Jay Feely's got a challenge. That's the Scottsdale, though, right? Yep.

So Scottsdale, you know, Jay Feely's been endorsed by all the major sports elites across the state of Arizona. Many of the members of the 2001 championship team for the World Series team for the Arizona Diamondbacks, many of the members obviously of the Cardinals organization. We've endorsed him. The Cardinals have actually just moved their headquarters from Tempe and their building one in Scottsdale, which would be in that district. So it's kind of, it's relevant. The other races to watch, and these ones are,

I'm going to kind of whip through these really quickly. Derek Van Orden, who is running to protect his seat on the western side of Wisconsin. Okay. is in a getting an attack like crazy, incredibly important race to win. I think if we lose this race, many other races will lose in the country. So this is one of those where it's kind of a bellwether race. I'm calling it a bellwether because we need Derek Van Orrin to stay in place. He's a strong candidate, has a decent amount of money, but conservatives have to show up in the

Rurals of Wisconsin. Is he more rock-ribb conservative, more moderate candidate? More moderate. Okay. A more moderate. But again, I think right now what you're seeing in Wisconsin is the moderates and conservatives all working together. Tom Tiffany is the nominee effectively for governor who is a Freedom Caucus member.

You have Derek Van Orden who is not. He's more moderate. But everybody's working together. But he hasn't been a problem, right? He's not like a, he's not like a. bacon or something out of, you know. No. Yeah.

No, but not by any means. He's been awesome and he works together. He's worked really well with us and we've been promoting him like crazy. I want to give a shout out. Not in every state. Does Americans for Prosperity do a lot of good work? Right now they're doing a lot of good work with Tom Tiffany and Derek Van Orden. And so we like to see that.

That's really positive in Wisconsin. All right. Next one. Pennsylvania, Scott Perry, member of the Freedom Caucus. He's great. He is one of the guys that we absolutely have to defend. He typically doesn't get a ton of outside support, but absolutely, absolutely have to defend his seat in Pennsylvania. If there's anyone, if there's, out of, there's very few people

I say give direct money to. Scott Perry is one of those people that you want to send money to and to help. He's a phenomenal. He's like Andy Biggs in Pennsylvania. Yeah. And we're going to get all these guys on the show. We'll do this in quick work so you guys can get to know them. But that, Scott Perry is a phenomenal patriot. Next one. In Iowa, We have two races of Iowa. Marionette Miller Meeks, who won infamously her race by just a handful of votes. I think it was six votes. We helped, this was during COVID.

We actually showed up with students for Trump, knocked doors for her, and she barely won. And the argument was as if we didn't show up because nobody else was showing up, she may not have won originally. We've got to retain her seat. Zach Nunn, who's a younger guy, is awesome. We got to protect his seat in Iowa. So those two races, again, a little bit more similar to Derek Van Gogh. a little bit more moderate, but they've been right there with voting with the president, voting with the Republican conference, and have done a great job.

Michigan 7, this was actually a flip from last election. So this is a scary one. So where Derek Van Orden is kind of a bellwether, Michigan 7 is kind of a bellwether for the Democrats. If they don't win this one back, this was Slotkin's seat. So Slotkin left to run for Senate. And her district flipped to the Republicans with Tom Barron. Tom Barrett. Tom Barrett's a young guy, younger guy. Got to protect him. He's kind of in the same camp, again, as Derek Van Orden. A little bit more moderate, but that's a district that swung from kind of radical leftist to moderate Republican. And if you lose this one. What's the makeup of Michigan 7? Where's it, where's it, you know, so it actually, so Trump won this district. So this is kind of the opposite of AZO1 where Trump won this district, but, and Republicans have won this district.

in the past and it's kind of it's tilt republican is a dead heat that is a dead heat district but every single race back and forth it goes back and forth back and forth uh lastly i'll kind of touch upon this uh marcy captor it looks like is going to have the toughest time retaining her seat she's a democrat in ohio nine uh this is a really important seat because this is a border marcy captor is a democrat democrat derrick marian is the republican who ran last time that's the That's the Dem. We want her out. Got to get her out. She's in Ohio 9.

Derek Marin is the Republican. He ran last time, barely lost. And we have to get him the win. Oh, so this is his second time running then. So he's got some good name ID, built up some momentum. I actually love those races where a guy barely, you know, loses, comes back, tries it again. And wins. Yeah.

And so he has a real good shot at this. New Hampshire Senate. Johnson, Noon, who got endorsed by President Trump, has a real chance. This is a under the radar, fly under the race. radar race that we're working really hard at. The Sununu race, I want to get some clarity on this, because we were talking with Brown before. What happened?

What was the backstory there that you can share? Yeah, I mean, look, so Scott Brown, who was former U.S. senator. From Massachusetts. From Massachusetts. He ran about a decade ago in New Hampshire. He took over in Ted Kennedy's seat originally in Massachusetts. It was a big deal where they broke the. the 60 vote super majority that they had basically.

And the filibuster proof. It's hard to remain a career Republican in Massachusetts. Yeah, exactly. But it was a huge, huge story. Anyways, yeah. He moved to New Hampshire. You know, he lived right on the border. He moved to New Hampshire, ran about 10 years ago, lost, just barely.

And has kind of been working towards running again this year. We are hope, Scott's incredible, I think he's a good conservative. Yeah, the grassroots really likes him. The grassroots likes him. The president came in and endorsed Sununu, not that long ago. And Sununu, to his credit, is it's not Governor Sununu, who's more moderate. He's the brother of Governor Sununu, who is arguably more conservative. But to that point, it's like all the polling is showing, particularly after the president's endorsement, plus the money, plus the name ID.

Plus the Sununu name ID is that they're there. So, turning point just recently, we had had conversations. I think we have a good relationship with Scott Brown. I hope Scott stays in the fight because I think that he would make a really great next time candidate. And that's a tough conversation. Well, you were behind this. I remember you were the one that set up all the meetings. And, you know, that's when I got to meet Scott and Charlie met Scott.

You were behind all that. So I understand your personal, you know, affection for the guy and belief in his political future. So, you know, but Sununu, to your point, the polling is radically in favor of Sununu, especially after Trump's endorsement. Well, at the end of the day, you have to make a calculation. New Hampshire is a state that has not sent anybody to D.C. from the conservative side in a while. But on the state level, they tend to be conservative. That's right. Yeah.

So we got to flip the script and get a conservative there. It's the hallmark Democrats taking advantage of Republicans by targeting mass. targeting the state both with on the redistricting front which is what they did to begin with in the beginning of this decade with Congress and then uh overlaying tons of money in Senate races and so you have a republic arguably Republican state and New Hampshire is very similar to Arizona where it's really close really close you come here and it feels Republican there's a lot of Republican things that go on here like yeah permitless concealed carry school choice, which is it called constitutional.

It feels very red. It's school choice. You have, it's very suburban, all those things. But again, the Democrats are smart. They take advantage of redistricting. Similar to New Hampshire, Arizona's the same. You get a lot of swing districts, so they flood a lot of money in for the congressional races. You flood a lot of simultaneous money into the Senate races.

And guess what happens? They win federal races while everything else goes red. Well, it's also, New Hampshire is a very swingy state. It's one of the white estates, and so white voters more swing voter. They go back and forth more often. It's just an odd state. You get this with Iowa a bit too. It's got the annual presidential primary race means the big candidates are there all of the time.

And a friend of mine who's experiencing this says, as a result, they like politics a little bit too much sometimes. And so that can affect how things go. It does make them, again, it contributes to them being swinging about things. things getting really invested in it. It's an odd state. It's probably one of the most unusual states. Again, you can't underscore this enough. There's more registered Republicans in that state than there are Democrats, and it's

the independents that really swing it back one way or the other. How are we seeing the independent vote play out right now, Tyler? Is there any initial polling? Can you see that they're more in Sununu's camp? What are you seeing on the independent front? Yeah, so this is a reminder again, and we'll talk a lot more about this. through the election cycle. Midterms in particular, the independent vote is, it's fickle.

So you pull, you pull, you pull. But remember, turnout with independence is far lower, substantially lower in a midterm than it is in the presidential. So a presidential, you see much higher levels of turnout, particularly amongst independence. And there's this fallacy of this, like, every independent voter is a swing voter. For some reason, on the Republican side,

We think of independence of like, oh, well, we get to win those people every time. The reality is that most independents either categorize themselves as a pretty much all the time Democrat or pretty much all the time Republican voter. And then there's a small fraction of those independent voters. There are swing voters. Now, in midterms, those true swing voters are even less likely to show up. Right. So, you know, and again, you don't want to dismiss them. You want to work on that pocket, but you have to substantially look at.

each state and what do they make up are they are they five percent of the vote are they three percent of the vote are they eight percent of the vote in most cases it's sub 10 percent really even in a state like new hampshire that of the independence more registered independence than either party yeah i mean look uh Arizona is the same right now you have more independence here than than any of either party and states like north carolina you have tons of independence but again they're far less likely to show up and and you have to keep in mind there's a a factor of independents who are

not Republican because they feel they're too conservative for the Republican Party. There's a there's a faction of Democrats that leave become independence because they feel the party is too moderate for them. Right, right, right.

And so you have, and in these states, again, you have an entire ecosystem for Republicans within New Hampshire that kind of view themselves as more libertarian. And so there are, libertarian-leaning Republicans that get swayed to our ways.

And I would say the Massey race today actually takes a huge toll on a state like New Hampshire where there will be some negativity if Massey loses. We saw that. We had an email from someone who said if Massey loses, they plan to vote Democrat this fall, which we think is fundamentally deranged. That is an insane point of view to take

when you see what the actual Democrat agenda is for America. but it is a take we've seen. We can't hide the fact that that is occurring. Well, I just find it fascinating as well that in New Hampshire, like Arizona, let's just say you have a third, a third, a third, registered. A third Republican, third Democrat, a third independent, but it only accounts for up 10% of the vote. Yep.

That's wild. Well, and again, it depends. It kind of depends on the whole thing. Well, my point was it's about 10% or less of the independents are swinging. in the defense. Does that make sense? Not that they make up 10% of the vote. But in most states, you know, depending upon what you look at, it's sub 25%. It's sub 20% in some cases of the turnout because the turnout is just so bad because they're not as engaged.

Well, midterms. They may not get an early ballot. They may not because they didn't vote in the primary. A lot of the things that they do that make them habitual votes. We're going to bring in all these candidates on the show in the coming weeks. and we want you to support them. They are the must-watch races. And in many cases, we're going to tell you,

support directly to their campaign. Send the money directly to their campaign. For more on many of these stories and news you can trust, go to charliekirk.com.