The Dale Jr. Download - Can Denny Hamlin Rebound?

Episode Date: September 7, 2023

Denny Hamlin gets the Lawn Chair Award for Darlington. Kansas doesn't look like a tough racetrack but crazy things always happen. Predictor model is big Truex Jr, Hamlin, Byron and Larson. What to expect from Chastain. Is Carson Hocevar a sleeper for a top-10 pick? Kansas isn't a great track for Ty Gibbs. Should you look at making top-5 bets? The Professor's updated matchup tool was a success, so the guys are big on those bets. What's The Bet. And, a quick look at college and NFL betsDraftKings State-Specific Problem Gambling Information:In Massachusetts, call [phone] or visit gamblinghelplinema.org, In New York, call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369). In Tennessee and Kansas, Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino & Resort (KS). In West Virginia, Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit www.1800gambler.net. All games regulated by the West Virginia Lottery. Please play responsibly. In partnership with Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races. In Connecticut, Help is available for problem gambling call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org. Check out Dirty Mo Media on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DirtyMoMedia  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The following is a production of Dirty Mo Media. And now, your starting lineup for Dirty Mo Doe. Up first from the great state of Ohio, he's the degenerate of the group who bets on anything he watches. The Chopper! Next, he's from the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the man who does the real work, crunching the numbers, the professor. And last, hailing all the way from Maine, the crew chief of this misfit bunch, Steve Latar. Well, if you're listening, it sounds the same.

If you see the video, it looks very different. A virtual version of Dirty Mode Doe. We complained about the internet, so I think management to get even shut off the AC. So the studio is 105 degrees. The plastic is barely, is basically melting. I feel like I'm in Arizona with DJ playing golf. So for that reason, myself, I'm at home in my home studio. The professor's always in a home studio.

Professor, nice to see you. Emmy peeking out from around the corner? Yeah. We get a yep. A lot of words out of the professor today. And the chopper, after I think we're on our third room, second computer, second mic, and one battery charger, we are remotely connected.

We are good to go. Good to go. And Trav, he's from an executive office because the executives didn't lose AC. just over there in the recording rooms. Nothing, Traff? You're not going to, listen, he's like, please don't get me involved. I don't want to be in trouble.

Listen, I'm no dummy. All right, we've got to look back. We've got to look back. There's a lot to talk about in Darlington. I thought the bad break of Darlington was Kevin Harvick, but it turns out it was Chopper's bet slip. What happened, Chop? What happened?

Minus a ton. My DH. He looked pretty good, till the loose wheel. And that was the end of that. We just give out the launch award now because I know you're right on the edge to give it out. Are you giving it to the D-H? Pit crew is like, where are you really placing it?

I got to put it on the pit crew. And I got to put it on him for not being upset about it. If you listen to his podcast, he's like, yeah, they've done a great job. It's the first one ever in the new gen car. Come on, man. So let me play devil's advocate to that. He's in the playoffs. I think how you handle a situation.

with your team. Shake him up the head from the crew chief. Shut it down, Trave. You're off base. No, I'm asking. So, Steve, you tell me, though, is it sometimes good for the driver to not hammer the team?

So, okay, maybe, all right, I see your point that you're trying to not get your pick crew all fired up in week one, but I'll go with one more. I'm going with the Dion approach. If you don't like it, don't play here. If you don't like who I am,

don't start on my team. Like, we want Danny Hamer, and Denny Hamlin Swagger. I want the Jordan Waring jet flying. What's the Rick Flair quotes? That's the Denny Hamlin that wins races. And that's the Denny Hamlin that chews on his pick crew. And in pit crew, as matter of fact, when he didn't chew them, they were probably like,

man, is Denny okay? Is he feeling okay? Because that doesn't sound like Denny. So I hear you, Trab, and I think your approach is right, but that ain't DHS's approach. I want flashy Denny. The swagger. He didn't complain on Monday. I can't even believe he got to the mic with the new contract.

He was sitting on. He was way up here. So here I am in action's detrimental. You can barely hear me because the coach is sitting across from me. And I'm sitting on my new contract. The boss man had to come to him. He didn't go to the boss man. How's that?

I mean, come on. All right, lawn chair is in. Was it mostly DH? Is that what killed your bet slip and not having Larson? Let's talk about Larson. Because we all talked Sunday morning. He was flying. Why was he not in your bet slip?

Was it purely an odds thing? I couldn't pick both. I mean, there wasn't a, enough action there. You know, if you took two favorites, I really liked D.H. to win. So I was on that train. And, you know, and Larson was even better, or worse odds. So I had to throw a ton of, I mean, it had to just pick the two of them.

And it would have been a no-win situation, I think. But now, listen, I thought Darlington was what we saw, right? It was heavy hitter after heavy hitter, right? It was Kevin Harvick, better than I thought he was going to be. Reddick, Hamlin, Truex was, it went bad and qualifying, and then he had a loose wheel. We're going to leave him just out of the conversation for a week. And it was going to plan until the loose wheel. I mean, because I had him to win at five units.

I had him five units over Larson, which was a winner. Those two right there changed the whole day to a big winner. So. All right, well, now I've got to get up on my soapbox because I've heard all these people analyze what happened to Kevin Harvick. So let me just explain, oh, I don't know. Let's start with the real rules. Because some people seem to struggle with the rules. Here are the rules.

You can enter pit road. any time the light's green, which means the track is under a green flag condition or pit road is open under the yellow. You're running around there under green. You come to pit road or you try to come to pit road. A caution comes out. The light turns red. Now here is his options. If he can somehow not commit to pit road, which means go over the yellow line below the box, then you're committed. If you can avoid that, you can miss pit road. You can turn right. As long as you touch the box a little bit. You can drive straight over the box. As long as you hit the box or outside the box, then you weren't committed to pit road. I think that's a misnomer. People think you can't hit the box.

That's wrong. That's not the rule. You can hit the box and pit. You can hit the box and stay out. It may be silly, but that's the rule. Know the rules. So now if you say, hey man, if I try to turn right, I'm in a wreck, I got no choice. You can just run pit road speed all the way down and you be scored at the end of pit road. Now listen, you're going to lose some spots. But you were the guy decided to come to pit road. Like, it's not like a bolt of lightning hit you while you're on the racetrack. You didn't get Rick Allen, although someone on Twitter thought you get Rick Allen. You know, you basically, in this point, you got Tyler Reddick because he downshifted and Newman was going to hit him. So I don't think we need a rule change. I think the rules

crystal clear. And, you know, is it bad luck? Sure. Welcome to sports. Like, I don't know what to tell you. It's not supposed to be a controlled environment. Like, you know, if he was on the racetrack, it would have been fine. There's my rant. Professor, you were there in the booth. Agree? Disagree. I agree. And you were throwing your pen saying that they should have kept on going down pit road. It was obvious that

they were on pit road when it was closed. Rick said it. On the air. So I'd like to say Barron West on Twitter, I appreciate you following. First of all, appreciate you chiming in because Barron says, and I quote, at Steve LaTart. All I can say about at Kevin Harbick is that he

was at Rick Allen. He needs to stop the premature calls. Barron, I couldn't have said it better myself. Congratulations. Welcome to the pod. There's a lot of mad people. I mean, there's so many tweets in here. I can't even, I can't read them.

Like, we'd have, it just, it would be, beep, beep. I mean, I, man, it's, the universal word is heavily in my Twitter. And I see that it uses an adjective, a verb, man, a lot. So that's it. We're just going to read the one tweet about being Rick Allen, because that one just made me smile, to be quite honest. All right, Annie M. We're going to Kansas second time this year.

So it looks benign. Here's the truth. You look at the helicopter shots. It's a mile and a half. It's hard for me to get down the backstretch because there's that Hollywood Casino kind of glimmering off turn two that gets my attention a little bit.

But it's a pretty basic appearing mile and a half that doesn't race basic. I wish I could say it some other way, but Professor, we have seen flat tires. big wrecks and mistakes, like for a track that... So Darlington looks weird. So you'd be like, hey man, some stuff goes on at Darlington, you believe it. Kansas looks pretty...

I don't want to use the word basic, but it does. But it doesn't race basic. Is that fair? No, that's totally fair. And the crazy thing about Kansas is we've always seen a lot of playoff problems at Kansas during the playoffs. It is just the playoff drivers always seem to have issues at Kansas. It's time to go to the predict.

and I feel like I could have got the top of the predictor right because even in my little prep with no algorithms or math, just a guy that barely got through high school over here, I could tell you that Kyle Larson and the Toyotas, Hall ass. I mean, that's how it is. It's Larson and the Toyotas. And pick your Toyota because it can be any of them, all six of them. Bubba won here a year ago. Reddick has flown here. So let me have it. What's the predictor say? Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., William Byron, Denny Hamlin, in a class of their own. Like, you can basically say any of those could win. They're that close.

Yeah, that's an easy sell, so keep going, what does they're to discuss, right? Hamlin flew, Truex flies. Now, I don't know who's going to change the tires on both cars. Hopefully they get that cleaned up. Larson is coming off a win. Back-to-back wouldn't shock me at all. and Willie B, listen, man, he's got the five-win swagger.

So, I mean, for sure. Those four I got. Okay. Then we go to Chastain. He's in fifth. He scored the most points and has the best average finish on mile and a half tracks in the next-gen car, which probably didn't know. And he's also finished in the top 10 in all three next-gen races at Kansas,

fifth in May. That shot of Costa-Bal landed because it's not, not just okay that I didn't know it. It was even worse that he knew I didn't know it. So we're not sure how to take that. So wait a sec, Chad Stane, you're talking a man of his own? He's all of tier two? Yeah, I think so.

I think he's, the way the numbers worked out, he's in his own league. I couldn't put him in tier three. You know, I can't put him in tier one. If you wanted to put him in tier two and group all these guys together, that's fine for me too. But I'd say he's at the top of tier two if you're going to put him in tier three. two. Well, give me the run of show then, because now you have a block of drivers that's huge. So Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace, we've talked about them already. Kevin Harvick,

Joey Lugano, Brad Kislauski, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell, Kyle Bush, who you're going to yell at me about. Ryan Blaney, Chris Bush, you're going to yell at me about, too, and Alex Bowman. All grouped together, I think, the way their scores come out. Well, if we have some conversations, let's go to the bottom of the predictor. Because there's a name down here I want to talk about. The bottom, tier whatever, tier last, Sheldon Creed in the 78, Carson Hosevar and the 42,

J.J. J.J. Ely Cole Custer. So two Rick Ware cars. I want to talk about the 42 and Carson Hosevar. He was top 20 at the first race when he failed something and breaks. Where did he end up at Darlington? Because to bet him, you've got to probably get him in the top 10 or in a matchup,

but man, this kid is likable. He has a great personality. He doesn't chop. This is how I look at it. Chop. The moment doesn't seem big. Like he's like, oh, man, man, this is fun. This is great.

Like, he just went to the Southern 500, 500 damn miles at the toughest racetrack we run at and kind of put it together. So I'd like to hear Hosevar. 17th with a speeding penalty at Darlington. It was second there in trucks last year at Kansas, was trying to win, was out there on older tires. So I bring it up. It's Thursday. We're talking Thursday morning.

There's not a lot of matchups out. There's no real Hosevar matchups out. But if you'll listen to this on a Sunday, find Hosevar in a matchup. I bet you're going to get some pluses. The books don't even know who the hell the sis kid is. And I'm going to give you names. If it's Hosevar, verse, and you tell me if you'd start disagreeing with a name. For sure over Creed, Yalee, Custer, Gillan, Ty Dillon,

Harrison, Burton, Priest, Lejoy, Haley, Cindrick, those 10, I would take Hosevar. There you go. We don't have matchups, but Chop, you always say the matchups are what,

like an hour before the race? Yeah. Not a lot, yeah. Especially the, you know, the fourth tier matchups, those will come out at the very last second. So if you're looking for,

if you're, oh, I don't know, a couple pops in, you're watching a little pre-race, and you're like, I don't feel like I have enough action. I'm putting myself in this position. This is like when the 3 o'clock games are getting ready to kick off. And you're like, man, I only got two bets.

I'm going to go throw a random bet to focus on this game. Normally what happens is I turn on or whatever game is in the restaurant I'm at. I'm like, well, I need to be on that one because I'm going to watch it. That was big on Saturday night, too. Penn State, cash me on that final trash touchdown. We got way over our ski tips because Professor's a Penn State fan. So he sold the whiteout. He sold the juice.

He sold it. So I got in a little. Then I got in some more. Then I get in some more. Next thing you know, Chop, I am, and we are, we are Hoover pressed on the 18th hole praying that Penn State just gets a trash touchdown. And they did. And we had the whole restaurant in Florence, South Carolina cheering.

For all the bad beats that you've had, that, that's like the gambling god saying, here's a gift to you, Steve. That is. That's like the tooth fair of gambling, just sprinkling. You know the chef guy who sprinkles the salt? that was a tooth fairy of gambling, sprinkling a win. And by the look at Chopper's face, it came out of his account. Guess who's on the other side of that?

Yeah. Yeah. Thanks. Awesome. All right, back to the predictor. So we talked about Hosevar at the bottom. Middle tier. See if any of these you want to discuss, chop.

Let's talk about it. The big chunk in the middle. Suarez, Dinger, Austin Dillon, your man, Stenhouse. Ty Gibbs, I want to discuss in 21st on the predictor in a Toyota. Almerola, Jones, Briscoe, Cendrick, McDowell also at 26. So I think we need to talk. McDowell, the playoff driver, and Ty Gibbs in a Toyota.

So Ty Gibbs finished 34th and both of his starts there, and his best mile and a half finish is 20th. So the improvement we're seeing at a tie is real, but you think it's slow at the mile and a halfs. That was where his upswing is the least in his rookie year. Is that a general statement you buy that? Yes, I would agree with that. He has one here in Xfinity, if that does anything. No, well, it doesn't. Here's why I say that he can drive, but chop, you know, we hear from

these drivers all the time. It's really not about how good your cars. It's how it is in traffic and how you work the air. And I think that the mile and a halfs are where a veteran cup guy, they don't know, right? They're putting their cars in positions because it's like you and I, we think we're good putters. We just play the same green every time. So we know those left. We really have no idea what we're doing. You know, some of the cup guys are the same way. They put their car in the right spot because they just, you know, they just know. And I think poor Ty has a ton of talent, but he doesn't know what he doesn't know. All right. How about Ricky? We got to talk Stenhouse. Playoff driver.

Recovered from a speeding penalty in Darlington. I was ready to put a fork in him after the speeding penalty. But man, he came back. I'm going to give him credit. He ground his way back. I know it wasn't the best day, but it could have been day over. Yeah, well, he's, he finished. He's got an eighth, eighth place finished there in the next gen car. This is only, top 10 at Kansas. Where he is on mile and a half some of the next gen car in general. Let's do it this way.

Not great. Okay. We're going to talk about it head-to-heads and I'm going to make up a couple of head-to-heads because he's not listed, but we know who he's going to go against. He's going to be against Dinger and Dylan and Gibbs and Amarola and Right Chop. Like we kind of, we've seen enough.

We know what's going to get posted on Sunday, so we're just going to predict the head. We're not going to worry about the odds. We're just going to give you some head-to-heads. If you see him against these guys, I would take him. He was seventh at our last mile and a half. track, the 600. That's the last time we've been on a mile and a half. Think about that. Last time we've been on a mile and a half is a 600 job. That's a long time. And here's what gives you

the head scratcher. You know what happened there? Is Blaney showed up on the scene. And I'm going to tell you, if anybody had that predicted, they're way smarter than I am because there's no chance I had him showing up that way. Anything else on the predictor before we roll into the old odds? You want to talk about Kyle Bush? You talked to me about it earlier when shop was trying to get his stuff together. I don't want to talk about Kyle Bush because I got a text message on Monday that said, by the way, Kyle Bush finished Tier 3 right where I had him. That's what the text message said.

So I don't want to give you the chance to take a victory lap here on the pod. Who sent that? You. It wasn't the Emmy behind you. That statue hasn't moved. I questioned if it's metal. No, go ahead. You got the floor.

Kyle Bush. Only two top tens in the last eight races. Finished 26 or worse and three of the last four. Kansas races. He's only led one lap in the last seven mile and a half races. I hate to agree, but I wouldn't be surprised if he

won this weekend, but that's why he is where he is on the predictor. So he won, talk about his wins this year. Let's really dive into Kyle Busch. Where did he win this year? You won at California. Same tire as Kansas. He won at Talladega.

Doesn't count. I mean, it counts, but not for what we're looking. One at at Gate, Way. How did he run at Michigan? Oh, good until Blaney was on his door and he wrecked. I know the answer. Where was he running when he wrecked, give or take?

Inside the top 10? He was 11th when he crashed. So still outside the top 10. All right, I've heard enough. Let's jump into the odds. The odds makers agree. Hamlin, Truex, Larson, Byron are all the favorites. Hamlin, 450, currently on Thursday, Truex, 550, Larsen, 550.

Byron 750 I agree They're all unchangeable Make your pick Redic at 9 to 1 Bell at 9 to 1 I mean look I think the odds have this right

Bubba at 12 to 1 Bush at 14 to 1 Professor doesn't love him Okay here's a guy that you have Fifth and they have Chastain at 16 to 1 We're back to the Chastain story Right like at

I used to say one speedway one road course Then he showed up in one Nashville And I was like wow I didn't I didn't really see that coming. We saw a different Chastain last week. He said everybody's way. He ended up pretty good, looked pretty mature. Am I crazy to think Chastain has a little good run bubbling in there, Professor?

The numbers are good for him. I don't. I like him. I like him this week. Then Bush or then Harvard. Go ahead, Chopp. You like a, like a thing. 16 to 1, Chastain? Is that interest you?

Yeah, it's 16 to 1 that, you know, just because his numbers are solid, I mean, that's, that's a one-unit play for 16. I mean, that's, that seems reasonable. So I have started to see the top five odds start to go up in my opinion. Do you, I know you've been Mr. Off Top 10s. Do you, is there a difference? So let me just talk about that. There's only three drivers at minus money for a top five. Now, listen, top five is pretty good wrong. But, you know, you can, get a chastain for two to one. You can get a bubba at one and a half to one. Now look, top five is a good run, but do you start looking there versus the top top tens that are super minus money? I just think the odds, you know, for two to one on a chastain for top five versus 16 to one to

win, I think if he's there, I'd rather take the risk on the win and get the big payout versus trying to coax the top five. I don't know. No, I agree. Can you believe we've had seven months without an NFL game? Crazy, right? Well, good thing that's over. NFL is here and Draft King's Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL, is giving you a can't-miss offer for week one. This week, new customers can get $200 in bonus bets instantly when you bet just five bucks on any NFL game. Draft Kings is hooking everyone up with game day greatness. All customers can take advantage of two new offers every single game day. this September. Check the app to see what you get. Download now and use code Doe, D-O-U-G-H to sign up. New

customers can take home $200 in bonus bets instantly just for betting five bucks. That's code Doe, only on Draft King's Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 gambler. For state-specific disclaimers, check the show notes. 21 and over in most eligible states, but age varies. by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. See draftkings.com slash sportsbook for details and state-specific responsible gambling resources.

Bonus bets expire seven days after issuance. Eligibility, wagering, and deposit restrictions apply. See dkng.com slash football for eligibility, terms, and responsible gaming resources. So let's talk about this group to win. You ready, Professor? Get your pencil going. Chastain 16 to 1, Busher's 16 to 1, Harvard 20 to 1, Kess 20 to 1,

Blaney and Lugano 22 to 1, and for a conversation, I'll throw Elliott in at 22 to 1. Let's start with Elliot. Chop, are you completely off the Elliott bandwagon? Have you accepted if he wins, you're okay to miss it? Yeah, it's okay. And I imagine he will win one. I think he will, but I'm just not willing to keep throwing money down the Elliott trash hole. when it comes to bets.

So then it's the Ford question. I mean, listen, it's as simple as that. It's the two best Penskees at Blaney and Lagaga, RFK with Bush and Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick, which is the Ford Camp. I mean, I know there's other cars, but those are the five. Professor, you said the last mile and a half

was Charlotte. Blaney one. Do you see anything in your magic little box over there that says, Bush or Harvard, Keselowski, Blaney, Lagano? I would take Blaney. When we look at those guys head-to-head, Blaney's had the most, the highest finishes of any of them on mile and a halfs and at Kansas. Wait a minute. Did you use the head-to-head tool? Someone had a great idea to create this.

Did you come? Yeah. It made money last week, by the way. There you go. Yep. It popped Bubba out of there. So small winner for the group head-to-head tool. All right.

So you're saying if you put in the head-to-head tool, two RFKs, two Penske's, and a Harvick, you say at Kansas, Blaney, if you're going to pick one of those, you'd pick Blaney. Blaney's the guy. All right, there you go. I love it. I love it. Let's move into matchups, because up until last week, that's where we were seeing some benefits. Get your little tool out.

Here we go. RFK head-to-head, Busher Kedlowski. My gut tells me Busher. I like Kez, a lot of veteran. but Busher, man. Old Bushers strutton this up a little bit. Bush. Bush.

Bush Chastain, you're going to tell me Chastain. So if I look at the predicting model, chastain is a big gap over Bush. Chastain. Reddick and Bell, team top guy runners. How about Bell? Can we talk about Bell for a minute? So the poor guy has one of the worst pit crews

known to man on pit road for some reason. in this year. I don't know why. I'm not going to say why. It doesn't matter. So they swap him, swap him and Ty Gibbs. My man sits on the pole. Number one pit stall. Magic day comes down. First pit stop. Jack up, jack down. Jack up, down. Jack up, down. Jack up, down. Right side, left side. 15 and a half seconds. Like, I didn't even know what to say on the broadcast. Like, I was like, okay, now I'd just go bad for him. If he goes to Jiffy Loub, his stuff's taking two days. Like, it ain't happening. I don't know if they're going to drop it off the lift or something. I don't know what his deal is.

Nothing, professor? You're just going to let it sit. gonna laugh at you. Well, it's true. Now, look, they came back and at great pit stops, but that person was not good. Yeah. But by that time, it didn't matter, right? Like, it was, he was already...

We digest. There was a lot of issues that went wrong. Let's talk Reddick and Bell. Team run the top. Both these guys are going to be right on the fence. When you look at Kansas, it's Bell. When you look at Reddick, it's... Our mile and a half's, it's Reddick.

I'm a little worried about that one. I think it's who has the best car in the day. I think they're going to run right next to each other. I'm not on Blaney. You already answered. You said it was going to be Blaney. Blaney, for sure. Chop, you with us, or you disagree with the ADD so far?

No, you know, back up to Reddick and Bell, I just have concerns about Reddick finishing. I mean, they don't ever seem to finish. That is true. Like, even at Darlington, I know he ran second, but he tried to wreck himself coming to pit road with the 50. Right? I mean, let's just be honest. That isn't Ryan Newman. I question if his stuff isn't all crumpled up in the top of three and four.

Yeah. So that's where I think Bell is the better choice there. I like that. I like that. I can get behind that. I tell you, Bell has a little, I don't know, like I said, he's got a little playoff swagger. Like, what are you sitting on the pole at Darlington, you know? I asked him about the wreck because he did, he hit the fence.

And he goes, you know, the worst part is I wasn't even trying to go fast. I was trying to let a guy go. And I ran like a quarter lane higher and one and two. I got in the marbles and hit the fence. And I'm like, what the hell? You know, so I felt a little bad for him. Here's the one. This is basically Chopper versus the professor.

I don't think I can ask either of them their opinion because I think they're emotionally attached in this heads up. Matter of fact, what I smell is a head-to-head. Speaking of head-to-heads, who's the bet? We're going to circle back around to that one, another bad week for the group. But let's say Truex versus Hamlin. Chop, can you get over the emotional loss of last week to take Hamlin?

Yeah, he's coming back this week. It's going to be my pick again. He's got going on. I mean, that was a bad beat. So, Professor, how about your man, Truex? I'm going to stay away this week. Ah, ooh, I just doubled it. This is a Hamlin over Truex head-to-head. Travis, can you check my internet? Because I think Professor didn't just take Truex. I think I have internet issues. he have to resign as the president of the fan club?

I'm just getting a week off. So what does the head-to-head tool say? Well, Hamlin's finished better than Truex in all three Kansas races in the next-gen car. In the next-gen car, Hamlin's finished better than him on mile and a half, six to four. the last five Truex has has the advantage but it's too much red for Truex for me there we go makes sense the gambler and the stats say Hamlin as much as the professor doesn't want to admit it now it's team Hendrick Byron against Larson if Larson's rolling he beats Byron that's my opinion if Larson's rolling is a big if I mean he's rolling he's a big if

I mean, he's already won. Now, for the record, all the fans will say, well, he's already run. He'll let Byron win. No, he won't. He can get two shit less about William Byron. If he's leading, or if he can pass William Byron, he's going on by.

All these conspiracy black helicopter theories that these teams are working together, you should hang out with the drivers more because they're not working together. He knows it's his teammate. If he can line up behind him on a restart, he will. But you know what I mean, Chopper? Like, there ain't no way Larson is caring about

William Byron went into advance. No, he needs to playoff. points, right? He's going to maximize his points. Doesn't matter. Chop could be on the pre-race show with analysis like that. I like that. Drop the data on us. What's ahead-to-head, say, professor? Larson Advantage at Kansas, Byron Advantage on a mile and a half. Yeah, so I agree. You could not touch it because, once again, I think this is going to be a

really hard one. If you go back to Darlington, by the time, practice was over, we knew it was Larson over Byron because he was so fast, but it's Thursday. I don't know. See what the 20 minutes holds. How about any other head-to-heads? We talked about most of these. I'm looking through some other friends, some other books. All right, let's talk some other ones.

I want to talk about this one because Bubba, a huge, huge favorite over Harvick. Bubba minus 1, 50, 60, 70, depending on where you look. Harvick plus 1-something, 20, 30, 40, depending on where you look. I know Harvick was good last week, but I'm going to tell you, I think Bubba is. is going to be really fast this weekend, like top three car. What's the head-to-head tools say? This is a hammer for Bubba. All right.

Well, I'm not going to hammer those minus monies. Chop, you disagree? I mean, that's a huge minus. That's a lot of minus. You know, I bet you could find a matchup with Bubba that are going to be more in that minus 20, minus 30 kind of thing, you know? Well, look, I think we need to, I mean, we need to go where the iron's hot. and the iron's hot as Drapkings, group bets.

That's where we did it last week. Let's do it again. You ready, got your new tool out there? You ready to tickle the ivories? Yeah, and this week we had added chopper's suggestions of a number, like a score too, to break some of down. He's like the CIO of Racing Insights. I mean, the information guy comes up with a suggestion.

Tech group gets it done. I like this. Now, to Chad, Chad had that same idea. I shot it down, but once Chopper said it, he must be gold. The two Ohio guys got together. I can't believe Travis didn't agree. Pure gold. All right, let's jump right in.

Let's start at the bottom, because those are groups we like. Bowman, Kez, Ligano, Elliot. Bowman's the dog. The other three are pretty equal. This one's going to surprise you. I'm going to Kess. Yeah, I think it's Kez for the year. For the year, it's Lugano.

Okay. When you look at Kansas and mile and a halfs, it's Bowman. The long shot. Really? When you say it's Bowman, give me something more than that. So like, they've been in six mile and a halfs together in this next-gen car. and Bowman's been the best guy five times. Holy shit, wait a second.

These four drivers in their six mile and a halfs, he has not just been one or two. He has been number one five of the six times. Yes, that's what I'm saying. Well, if we're not going to use that, that we don't need the tool. Agreed. Now, listen, I'm not saying you want to cannibal in

with all your betting. Because, you know, Lugano and Kessler and the pl, playoffs and the playoff guys seem to show up here and i get all that but i mean we're talking five out of six holy smoke and it's not like bowman's had a monster here right i like it all right there you go the tool says a hidden group bat down here at bowman love it um anything else before we move to group c busher chastain harvick blaney busher chastain the favorites harvick and blaney the dogs I think this is still a Blaney bet. I was thinking Chastain.

Let's see what the data says. Okay, I would say Chastain by a mile. So he's been the best, they've been in 10 races together a mile and a halfs. He's been the best six times. Wait, wait, why you know, because Elliot sat out so many in the other group? Yeah, it's, well, Bowman and Elliot, a combination of vote. Sorry, keep going. Yep. So, so chastain's been the best at Kansas all three races.

And then like in their in their career, chastain's been the, been the best of any of them, the most times. So season goes to busher. Okay. So if we say it's the stats, so chop I see plus 230, it's going to be 220 to 240. In a four-man race, are those the odds you're looking for? Yeah, I think that, I mean, that's, that's what. you get in these I mean you're not getting much better usually in these group bets anymore so that seems reasonable when you're yeah he's what what second class

by himself right yeah oh yeah I mean the predictor the predictor definitely agrees with all this yeah I like that I like a little little nibble can we agree let's just jump right to the top because these four are the top of the predictor They're over one another in the predictor. Do we run Hamlin, Truex, Larson, Byron, and look for a standout? Byron is a big dog, or do we just accept that this is going to be the best of the best on Sunday? Yeah, I think this is, like most group A's, the minute you get into these kind of groups, you're better off to pick the winner, usually.

Because it's usually going to take a win, right? I think it's a win. I think the win's coming out of Group A. There's no, I mean, you know, I'm not willing to write in an absolute Sharpie, but, you know, If you said, hey, you had Group A against the field at, you know, two to one to win the race, I would take Group A if you're going to give me all four drivers, right? Like, they're probably going to win the race. Let's do Group B though.

With Bubba, we get plus 300 against those guys. Yeah, and that Group A is Hamlin with the head to head to head to lead. Yeah, and he's already the favorite. And, yeah, so I agree. I agree with Chop. If you're going to take him at plus 200 in Group A, you're going to take him to win the race at plus $450. I mean, that's my opinion.

So group B, the season and career goes to Bell, but track and track type, as in mile and a half's, goes to Bubba. So I think this is the one you got to just believe where you want to believe, Chop, it's this simple. I agree with the data perfectly. If you said who has the best chance of running well, I give Bubba perhaps the least chance or equal with Reddick. Bell and Busher, they have more career wins. They've done it. Like there's all these data points. but Michigan and Kansas.

It's Bell and Bush. I got Bell Redick Bubba Bush. You said Busher. Oh, Bell Redick, Bubba Bush. Bell and Bush have won the most. Right? So, like, they're going to be your instant favorites, but at these fast sweeping tracks, Michigan and Kansas,

Bubba, Toyota, and 2311 roll. So at 3 to 1, that might be a little nibble. I like Bubba there. So here's a question. Here's a serious question. It's three to one to beat the group. Three and a half to one top three. Okay, I think he can win the group outside of the top three.

So that clear, you know, I was wondering if there was a better way to bet it. Like group A, we bet it to win. So I don't think that's the case. I don't think this group has to be top three. I think this group could run fifth or six. Yep. Love it. All right.

What else we got to do? What else we got to look at? I got a little something for you. Chop, you know what they thought was a good idea? And this is kind of funny, right? So I know there is a Dirty Mo event at Bristol. You're going to be there drinking the beer and eating the food. I'm going to stop in and say hello.

Well, somehow, Dirty Mo thought it was good to have Dirty Mo live. Dale Jr. and friends are heading to Las Vegas. Dale, Mike, and the guys from Door Bumper Clear, my goodness, no telling what they're going to say. I headed into Las Vegas. The show will be Friday the 13th. Let's double down and put it on a very uncomfortable date. Friday, October 13th. Listen, if you watch horror movies, Friday the 13th is already, you know, get your attention.

And they're at the Westgate, Las Vegas. Resort and Casino to get your tickets, visit DirtyMomedia.com slash live. The VVIP packages, I'm not stuttering, VVIP packages are almost sold out, so don't wait. I don't even know what the second V is. I don't dare ask, but it's a big place. Got like a thousand seats or something. It's going to be a great show up on stage. It's in Vegas.

I'm sure everybody's going to be a cocktail or two in, so there's no telling what stories you actually might hear. All right, let's talk about some other bets. What do we have? How about the manufacturer? Well, we got Toyota plus 105, Chevy, Ford. I mean, I think it's pretty hard because we have Chevy and Toyota in the top four. I guess my question is, would you take Chevy over Ford or Toyota over Ford, but both of those bets are such minus money I wouldn't touch it?

Top Chevys, I have nothing of interest. Top Toyotas. Bubble it plus 575? I think a Toyota could win the race. Same thing. I'm staying away from it. Top Ford? They're all neutered.

Small odds. Am I missing something? What about Blaney? He won the last mile and a half race? Why is Ford and Blaney not getting more credit? Well, because, okay, here's why. Because it's just numbers. Toyota has six cars, I don't care.

Of the six, with confidence, Truex could win. Hamlin could win. Bubba could win. Reddick could win. Bell could win. I have five of the six could win. Chevrolet, Larson, Byron, Chastain, outside runner, Kyle Bush, maybe.

You know, I could get three or four. Ford, who are you going to get? Harvick, maybe Blaney? Like, I just think the numbers are against them. They have less bullets. It's a simple numbers game for me. Any of these crazy things that these? How about stage one in the race or stage two in the race?

I love that bet. Let's go through all these odds. There's a couple books that have some crazy. Both top threes, I'm not betting that. Both top fives, Truex and Bell. Nah, not three to one. Here's an interesting one. Both top 10, Chastain and Larson for plus money.

I like that. I kind of like that, too. We're going to assume Larson is top 10 speed. Now, if he has an issue, he has an issue. That has nothing to do with it. I think you're only betting that Chastain brings top 10 speed, and I think he does. I think that for sure is a good bet. I don't like anything of all top fives,

because you know how hard it is getting the top five? I don't like three cars inside the top ten. What about the overtime bet there? All right, let's talk that. Let's talk stage wins and overtime there, Professor, while you're tickling the Iries. Overtime is a plus 250. I think it's happened like four or five times.

I'm against the overtime one. So I'm against it just because, I'd be honest, I think NASCAR has really buckled. down and the yellow has to be a defined yellow, man. We have to have real, which I'm good with. I'm not knocking them. I like it better this way. I don't like the manipulated yellows. It's either a yellow or it isn't. And I feel like they're holding them a little bit more. Now, I do like that stage one in the race. Yes, sir. Three of the last five winners of Kansas, one stage one in the race.

And that's a four to one bet. That has Steve's the name written all over for what's the bet. Well, let's get right into what's the bet. Chop. In the basement. Minus 8. Travis, minus 6 and some change. Russ minus 3. Steve has flipped to the minus.

Nobody won last week. Let's not relive it. So, Chop, you get the first bet. You guys are going for Hail Marys and wins last week, and none of them worked out. Come on, Chop. What are you doing? I almost can sense it. I almost sense a double down Denny day, but let me hear it.

Nope, because it didn't enough to get me out of the cellar. So I'm going Carson Hosevar top 10 plus 800. That is a good bet. That's aggressive. I like it. He needs a little 8 to 1. That would give him even. Grab.

Give me Group B at Draft Kings Bubba plus 300 against Bell, Reddick, and Bush. I can't believe you're leaving it for me. Okay. Russ. Come on, Professor. I'm taking Larson to win. Well, guys, sometimes when you're a coach, you make it about you, and other times you just let the team do what they do. So for that reason, we're going to ride the stats, and we're going to ride the hot hand, and it's stage one winner and the race for plus 400.

You've hit two on two of those, I think, in this. I have. I have. But you know what else has started? And we've got to have this talk. Now, I want to start with this disclaimer. None of us are college football experts. None of us are even good college football betters.

Oh, that's a lie. Maybe we're okay. But I've had some college football action. Let's talk team beyond. I'm over four and a half. Our college football expert didn't like it. You didn't have him back on. Didn't like my bet. Boom. Big win. 21 point cover on TCU. Write it down. Now hold on though, Steve. Did you ever get by it also at three and a half, which I told you to do? I did. I have two checks. Okay. As you heard the story earlier from Penn State, when I like something, I bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, bet, and just hope. And just hope. it all works out. And then at the end, if it doesn't, I try to live bet my way out. So I'm a huge Dion Sanders fan. I like the angle. The best quote I ever heard on social media was he said, and I quote, what about me thinks I care what you think? And I was like, that is spectacular. I love it. So Colorado, big win. Here's the other thing that happened. Talk about a home run shop. Check this out. I have. Duke over six and a half, Clemson under 10 and a half, so that game fell my way.

And dabbo, your pissy-ass press conference, you got the L, bud, the L, accept it. All the Clemson fans, L. Can't wait. I can't wait. Chopp, do you win anything? What was week one for you? I think I went over. No.

Yeah. I didn't have time to study. All right, well, what do we like in this week? I'm going to tell you, this is an emotional one right here because this is Team Deion with LaTartre against Team Big Red from Nebraska, Rick Allen. I'm trying to get him to call a win because I think he could Rick Allen the whole university. Colorado was favorites, which concerns me a little. So I'm going to tell you where I'm at on this.

I feel like, so that game of Deons was the most watched. noon Fox game, perhaps ever, like seven million viewers. So you know how we talk Chase Elliott lines? I feel like this minus three is a team Dion Hedge job. Yeah. I think they're scared of the popularity. Everybody's going to be on Colorado. I think they really think this is about a coin flip, but they would rather, you know, they had to like move the line to slow the betting down. And Nebraska stinks, though. They've stunk for years. Nebraska scored like 10 points last week against Minnesota. Who's the kid from Colorado that plays both ways?

Travis Hunter. So, look, why is this kid not on every talk show? Like, he's so good. What do you mean? Everyone has, that's all people have been talking about this week is Travis Hunter. No, I don't mean the sports talk shows. I mean, he should be on the damn tonight show. Like, like, he's a star.

This kid. Hey, Steve, there are no late night talk shows right now. Oh, yeah, the writer thing's a big issue. let's get him on the pod, Traff. But like, Travis Hunter will probably have two touchdowns and interception against Nebraska. Like, I don't, I'm surprised with Colorado being this big fan favorite that the line's not more.

Hey, Tate Chopp, you like talk like me. Can you imagine if you could look across the line, either on offense or defense, and say, hey, I'm playing every down and I'm still going to run past you. Like, what do you say to that? That guy's a beast It's so good I love it

Is there Mac action Was there Mac action this week? I hate I missed it No it doesn't start until like October The Zip Also can we can we fix this It's not Mac action It's Mac action

It's Macction It's Macction It's Macction Like I don't we gotta fix this Steve No more Mac action where I'm from I'm on tell Russell I don't know how you put up with him There's one guy that can make up words and it ain't me.

Professor, you're pretty quiet. I'm waiting for the NFL bets. Okay. Floors open. The bet of the damn day, and I'm sorry for listening to this on Friday or Saturday. I've already cashed it if you're listening to by then. But Mahomes over two and a half touchdown is the lock of the locks of locks of locks of locks. The guy is going to go berserk tonight for like a bazing point.

He's absolutely going to score three touchdowns. What do you have, Professor? I'm listening. Well, this is our big week, Philly versus New England, but what's, what do you got? What's the line? I don't even, I mean, look, man, I got. It's four. New England's getting four points.

It ain't enough. I'm on Philly. I love that. I love that. Hey, listen, I love New England. They're my guys, but don't confuse wagering and cheering. Okay. I mean, what have we seen in New England that doesn't think Philly's not going to go up there and beat him by 10?

A little Super Bowl hangover maybe? Maybe. That one hurt. We are also in a big pool. Shop runs it. It's an amazing pool. It's on a website. I'm not going to promote them, but it's a great pool.

Because you just log on and how it works is you pick like 12 or 13. I want to describe this trap because we're going to give updates as the season goes. Professor, you need to get in with your cheap ass. I'll send you the email. Here's what you do. You buy in for the year. It's a reasonable buy-in. It's nothing crazy.

And there's 30, 40 guys in it. and you pick games against the spread, and you get, like, points for ones you get right or whatever, and then he has a payout. So it's kind of like a pool, except it's against the spread, which I really like. You can do what, college and pro? You can pick 10 games from any listed of all the college and all the pro. You pick 10 of the best games that you like,

and then there are two that you have to pick. It's usually a Monday night game and like the best college football game of the week. and then there's you can pick two what we call three stars which gives you extra points if you win those games Travis I'm gonna pay for your entry you're gonna do it love that you can't sit in your house of lives with an Emmy of your shoulder and think I'm gonna pay for your entry Travis sitting in a sweatshop with no A-Z up there I mean he's gonna get my action he's gonna get it I appreciate that professor you're gonna pay for your entry I'm gonna pay for traves matter of fact

I'm going to get with Chop today. So, Chop, you need to send him up, send him whatever he needs. Don't want to buy in. I got your buy-in, trapp. Let's do this. But I am going to take 50% of your yearly winnings. That's how this works. That's more than fair.

Okay. Why don't we take, why don't we get the three of us or four of us and have a little side action on the football? Pick them. I love it. I love it. Professor, you're in. Ask Becky, see if she can approve it in the budget. I think you can get in.

Actually, just tell Lucas. Lucas will approve it. There you go. We'll have a little four-way head-to-head. All right, it's that time of the day, five bets to watch, brought to you by our friends at Draft Kings. We're going to start with a winner. Everybody likes a winner. Look, there's a lot of favorites.

They're going to run good, but we're looking for value. Chastain, six to one chop. I know it's a bit of a long shot, but you like the value. Yeah, it's 16 to 1, not 6 to 1. Oh, see that? You got 10 more. Just listen to you. 16 to 1.

I love it. Yep. Let's talk about head-to-heads. Truex Hamlin. Oh, this is a heavyweight battle. The numbers, Professor says who? Denny Hamlin, unfortunately. Yep.

I asked Professor on purpose, because he loves Truex, and even the professor says Hamlin. What else do we got? Oh, how about a top 10? A name you haven't heard much. Carson, Hosevar. I'm not going to spell it because I can't, but the man's in the 42 car,

making his third cup start, ran really good a week ago, 500 lap, or 500 miles at darn. Roenton, top 10, you get an 8 to 1. I think that's good value because it is a long shot, but I like 8 to 1. And how about our groups? Draft King's groups. We got a new tool. We've worked it out. Let's talk. Group D first. Chase Elliott, Lugano, Kowalski, Bowman's the dog, the numbers. Say Bowman, chop. Are you buying the numbers? Yep, four out of five. He's won that group, four of last five that they've been together. All right, I love it. Let's stick in the group

B range. The name we haven't said. He won here a year ago. Bel Reddick, Bubba Bush. Is it Bubba Professor? Do you like Bubba? Bubba for sure. There you have it. Five bets to watch. Brought to you by our friends at Drap Kings. Playoffs are here. Darlington's behind us. Kansas is ahead. We're going to end the regular season on Xfinity. We're going to have our second race with the playoffs in Cup. Larson won a week ago. We'll see if it's another playoff winner. Football is here. We got some head-to-head matchups. We got a pool. Man, we got so many internal wagers at Dirtymo Doe. We're going to need our own secretary to keep track of them. But it's a good time. Good luck. Put your bets in. May all your bets pay off.

Check out Dirtymo Media on Twitter, Facebook, TikTok, and Instagram.