The Dale Jr. Download - Is There Any Way Denny Hamlin Can Lose The Championship?

Episode Date: September 2, 2026

NASCAR is set to embark on a new format of post-season racing with the reintroduction of the Chase, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. is here to take a deep dive look at the 16 drivers who will compete for the championship. He welcomes his colleagues from the broadcasting booth Steve Letarte and Jamie McMurray as well as celebrated NASCAR journalist Jeff Gluck for a round table discussion into all things NASCAR Chase: Looking back on how we got back to the Chase Who realistically has a chance to win the Chase How will the Chase play out? Hendrick Motorsports’ difficult season It’s Denny Hamlin’s year… again Who is Denny’s biggest competition? What tracks are the biggest wildcards? Who overachieved this year? O’Reilly and Truck Chase previews Check out Dirty Mo Media on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DirtyMoMedia Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This is a production of DirtyMode Media. The Dale Jr. Download. Hey, everybody, it's Dale Jr. back again for another episode of the Dale Jr. Download. We've got a great show for you today. We're going to do another roundtable. These are some ideas that me and a few other people in our Dirtymo Media group have decided to try this year. I've enjoyed it. I wanted to do another one leading up to the chase as we get ready to start the most important 10-week stretch in the NASCAR season. So I brought some great friends to the table, Steve LaTart, Jamie McMurray, Jeff Gluck, just a few of the folks that I love to spend time and talk to in the industry.

We're going to bring them to the table, and we're going to sort of set up our opinions of how this season is gone, mainly around the points format, and what we envision we might see over the next 10 weeks. We'll talk specifically about drivers and cover pretty much everybody that's involved in the chase at the cup level. We're going to also touch on the O'Reilly series and the truck series as well. But it should be a lot of fun. These guys have opinions. They love to talk and share what they know. And I'm looking forward to what this show might become.

So let's bring them in the room and get started. All right, this episode is presented by Arby's new meat in three box. You get more meal for your money at Arby's. We have the meats. Dirty. Oh. I suggest you buckle up. I saw your naked ass on TV.

Like laughing. People are going to say, wow, Jeff Gluck is an idiot. That happens every week anyway. Adele Jr. downloaded. Three, two, one. First off, I want to thank all you guys. for showing up, man. This is, y'all are great friends of mine.

And when we, we did a little bit of a roundtable, a couple episodes back, and I was like, man, that was a lot of fun. Doing the guests are great. But every now and then kind of want to break up the, you know, the repetitiveness of that. And so thankful for all of y'all being able to make this work. I see y'all everywhere. Y'all are busy, busy guys. So I know that this was, you know, a commitment to come out here and do.

I love it. I love anytime I get invited back to the table. There's always a lot to talk about, especially this time of year. It should be a lot of fun. Yes, sir. I'm trying to get my chair to go higher because I feel like I did this show a few weeks ago. And when I saw it, I was like, man, I look smaller than I already am. And then now I just sat down and I feel like I got dung. I feel like I'm even lower than I was right now. Oh, this is bad. Please get this video. Sit on a pillow. You want to sit on a pillow. Oh, that's exactly what I want.

Yes. Jesus. Okay. You say that, Dale, because you're like six and a half foot tall when you're a little guy. What the fuck? I'm only you five, ten. Well, I'm like five, two compared to you. So I just need a little extra length. Well, this is a career highlight for me.

I mean, Dale Jr. download, are you serious? Like, I mean, I backed toward my way into it by getting a podcast on Dale's network. And then sort of like, all right, we'll let you on Dale Jr. download. But, I mean, this is pretty cool. So I'm excited to be here. Thank you for having me. I'm concerned by what you brought. That's some reporter chicken scratch over there.

I'm not sure I can read my own. What do you have there? What have you written down? I have gone back to the, you know, my first year in NASCAR was 04. So I have the whole Chase history. I don't even have like the Winston Cup stuff in my head because I wasn't covering it back then. But I remember like the old chase, you know, like before the playoffs. And I remember how I thought it used to go.

And then how the playoffs were compared to that. And I was like, I don't know. Did it really happen like that? So I wanted to go through each season. I looked through and like averaged it out of like. like, you know, how many, what people's, the champion's average finish was, how many Mulligans the champion had in each year, which is like, you know, I feel like worse than 15th is probably a Mulligan, outside top 15.

And then how many wins they had. And I was comparing it. And I was just like, oh, yeah, like, it's, it is how I remember. So what, what, do you not have a computer? I mean, like, why did you handwrite? Like, why didn't you? Well, I don't have a printer. I guess I could have printed it off.

Let me guess. It says Tony Stewart a couple times on a lot of Jimmy Johnson. That's what I remember. It's interesting because, okay, so you remember Jimmy. You remember Jimmy and Chad being like this, you know, just killing it, right? And like barely having to scratch. Like you would, to me, the moments back in the old day, like, remember when Sam Hornish wrecked Jimmy at Texas and it was like a huge moment? Because that didn't happen very, like, you didn't see Mulligans very often for those guys who were running away with it.

It would just be like, oh my gosh, this is Matt, like, what just happened? This is crazy. And it was like a big story. Like it was a, it generated headlines for the rest of the chase. You know, it was weeks. Like, can he overcome this Sam Hornish incident or whatever, right? And then you got into the playoffs. And it was like, I don't know.

Like if somebody had a bad race, well, you could, you know, just win your way out of it or you would make up for it. And those, it felt like those moments weren't as big because you could erase them, right? Well, in the 10 races, you really couldn't do, you couldn't afford very much of that. So that's what I was looking at. Well, I, you know, we all had, or we all were either experiencing it ourselves or we were a witness to the buzz around this system, this playoff system, or the chase coming back in the, in the off season before Daytona. You know, they brought Mark Martin in, who was very vocal about that. we wondered you know there was a

there was a lot of conversations that were going on in those conversations I was able to be someone who was able to listen to it I didn't do a lot of speaking myself but what I was hearing

I really didn't think we were going to venture far from where we were in terms of the winning you're in and the rounds elimination and all those things. I just thought, NASCAR is never going to get rid of this. The networks are never going to allow them to get rid of this.

And I think we can talk them right up to the creek, but I don't think we can get them to drink. And so for them to go as far as they did was insane. I couldn't believe it. When they came out and said, I mean, this is really all but a full-season system to me. I mean, it might as well be. it's right

right up next to it and so I was really thrilled I've been and I've said it multiple times on this show and and to you guys I have been I've been plugged in every week

I mean I feel like Mark was super vocal I don't want to say that I didn't care but I just learned to play by the rules and whatever they said I'm like well that's that's what we're going to do Yeah. However, now that they've changed it, I think it has been more interesting. And to me, I never really thought the win and you're in was a fair structure for a champion.

So, but then we get to Daytona this year and Priest wins and he gets in. So it's worked out, it's worked out exceptionally well. But I just was, I mean, did you, were you passionate about it in the offseason? Yeah. You were. Yeah. I mean, I wasn't going to say what Mark said because I really. thought there was no chance. Mark didn't care. He came in not, Mark hadn't been privy to a bunch

of the conversations, I think, that all of us had had. He's out there, you know, in his, in his motor home, chilling and just doing his thing. And he walked in the room and said, why are we full season, damn it, you know, that's what everybody wants. And I'm like, well, yeah, I mean, I think I want that, but I didn't think we'd get a chance at that, you know, there's no reason to even bring that up, because NASCAR is never going to do it. But he just pushed, push, pushed. And so I feel like shout out to like racing insights and a few other people that worked on the numbers

to make this really work the way it's working to benefit the winner as much as it benefits. We're seeing these really cool swings, Ligano being a great example, the run that he made in the summer to get himself into the chase and up through past several drivers. It's very compelling, and there wasn't as much meat on the bone.

Now I get to tune in. I watch a race. I see somebody stumble, and I go, oh, shit, what's that going to be points-wise for them at the end of the day? Or see somebody succeed. What does that mean for them points-wise at the end of the day? I'm here every week. I wonder, though, you know,

here we are at the threshold of going into the chase and, you know, what will be the fan engagement. You know, we've had a season. It seems to have gone well. Jamie, you mentioned priests winning his way in, which was incredible. That's how we wanted to happen every year. I think it's important, though, that if it doesn't, it's okay. Yeah, it's okay.

I mean, like, I just, the one thing, and it doesn't matter to me, whether it's points or it's the rules at drafting style tracks, I feel like we cater a lot to try to make everybody happy, and there's no chance that you're ever going to make everybody happy. That's been super successful this year. And if it's not next year, I don't think you can criticize it and say, well, we've got to change something again right away to make sure that we keep everybody happier,

that it's a perfect system. Yeah. I felt like that it was a great story if SVG made it or priests, right? Or however that shook out, it was still a pretty compelling thing. For SVG to have the system change to his disadvantage, advantage, right, because of his performance on ovals, and him go out there and just get better and be good enough everywhere to, like, almost get there. You could hear the disappointment in his interview on pit road post-race. It also reminds us of the system. So I'm glad we've gone 26 weeks

because it's not a win in you're in, but 20 points is huge. Like, no offense, I think SVG did what he could do. You know, everybody's like, oh, he should have stayed out. He could have went 15 spots higher, it wouldn't have mattered. You know, he didn't really mess it up. Priest won it, which I think is easier to celebrate because those 20 points when you get to that final stage, it's almost insurmountable. So my opinion on these 10 races have shifted dramatically as I've watched it unfold over 26. Like 10 weeks in, I'm like, well, Redick's going to be the one seed.

Well, then now he's not. Heck, he's not even the two seed, right? So I'm a lot smarter, more engaged is a great way to put it. But I'm sure after 10 weeks, we're going to laugh at it. this podcast and be like, man, were we wrong? Because this is how 10 weeks actually ran when it was time to do it. I'll be honest. I've yet I've looked and I've yet to find something about this system I don't like.

I'm sure as we go through multiple years of it, there'll be a couple instances where something works out and you're like, I wish that wouldn't have happened that way. But so far I've yet to see anything I really don't like. All season long, there's been a narrative that I've been pushing pretty hard myself that the top six is where you want to be to win the championship. But as we went through the year, we heard even drivers say that maybe that's not the case. Christopher Bell was one that I heard say that that number might have moved to eight. What do you guys, you know, what do you guys believe at this point?

Who's in, who's really truly got an opportunity at this? Well, I would tell you that if Denny Hamlin were the ninth seed, I would still say he could win. just because of the performance that he's had for the last couple of years. We talked about this a little bit yesterday. Steve and I did, and to me, Lugano is the cutoff point.

And I think you have to put Lugano in the conversation just because of the short tracks that we have in the chase and the amount of them. And you guys hit on this a second ago, the advantage of winning is so high now that he can make up some of those points. But in order for him to do that, I think you're going to have to have Hamlin

or Blaney or Reddick fumble the ball a couple of times and have some battery. I think you said Mulligans a little bit ago. They kind of have a mulligan in the bank. I for some reason think this is going to be like a chase of excellence. Like I don't think this is going to be a chase of okay or mulligans or Rex. I believe someone or hopefully a couple, you know, selfishly, are just excellent. And they just run away, like a Redick-style run.

So I looked at how many points someone has scored in 10 weeks this year. And Redick and Hamlin lead at like 480. Legano's kind of in there. Brisco's kind of in there. But the next group are like 300. There are 100 points behind in 10 weeks. So to your point, I think right now, Lagano up, I agree with Jamie.

I think between 9th and 10th, Legano and Bushers kind of the line, but that line's going to move north quickly. Like if Ligano doesn't go out and close the gap, you know, people are going to be mathematically, not mathematically, but realistically eliminated quickly in this 10 week thing. Now, look, if Hosevar somehow wins Darlington, we're going to talk about how he jumped into that fray,

but someone below Lugano is going to have to do more than they've done in the first 26 to get my attention. I think it all comes down to what style 10 weeks we have, because that's where this divide that I was looking at comes from. You know, the original chase, you had, the champion had a 6.9 average finish, 0.8 Mulligans, which, again, I'm saying is outside the top 15 and 2.3 wins. you get to the playoffs and the average finish of the champion jumped to 9.6 because you didn't have to be excellent for all 10 weeks. They had 2.25 Mulligans, so way higher mulligans, but the wins were exactly the same, 2.3. Exactly.

So it doesn't matter old chase or playoffs that champion average 2.3 wins, but the mulligans 0.8 compared to 2.25. So is this going to be a chase where Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, people like that, The guys that are up there are not making mistakes, they're having an excellent, like, you would use a chase of excellence kind of thing? So I think the mulligans, I think the data skewed, because much like Dale was taking weeks off as a fan, as did I, as did most people in the playoffs, so didn't the drivers. So I bet there are mulligans in that data of drivers who could have a mulligan. Right.

In 10 weeks, you can't. So drivers are really, really good. I mean, Denny Hamlin wasn't even going to finish the race at Iowa because his brakes were going to burn out and he ran fifth. and then we weren't even going to make a lap in Daytona because there's no downforce, and we went caution-free, basically. These guys are unbelievable. So what I mean by that is it's a skewed data set because I would love to know how many

mulligans exist for the drivers who needed to have good points days. The numbers probably back down around one, and in this system, you have to have good points days. So I agree. I wrote down two things that make this chase different for me. Stage points? That's a new thing, right? So if you score, you know, whatever the percentage is, it's somewhere between seven and 12. percent of your daily points come from stage points and that 20 point win bonus right so those two things

and i don't know what that ingredient is going to do to the recipe but i think it's going to change it but so that's where you go to legano and you say okay he's starting 65 points behind denny hamlin is lagano going to outscore denny hamlin by 65 points if it's a chase where it's a clean chase and let's say denny has denny wrecks at talladega but otherwise he's finishing average seventh place finish or something how do you and so that means Ligon's going to have to have a lot of stage points more than Denny, but I don't, I don't think he's going to. So then you're saying, okay, well, then he's got to win a lot of races.

And that's where your 20-point bonus comes down. So unless a guy that far back outside the top six really gets on a Tony Stewart run and gets those win points, I don't really see them outrunning somebody. The outlier in all this is who saved something for the chase? who saved their best cars, who saved something that they can get through tech or, you know, manipulate the rules a little bit and have some speed because, you know, historically, the really good teams all have a little something in the bank. And so, you know, who has done that?

Is Hendrick Motorsports? Do they have a little something that they haven't shown yet that they're going to save until this all starts? And for me, when we get to Darlington, you're going to find out who has what? because that's a great track for a lot of these guys that we think are going to be the championship contenders and for some of the organizations that haven't performed at the highest level and have they maybe saved a little something. We went to New Hampshire, NASCAR, made some rule changes to the front structure.

We've not really had a great opportunity to go back to intermediates and so forth to see where everybody shakes out. And we've been to some racetracks where the advantage that the Toyota's held throughout most of the season. was not quite as large. We saw other teams win. We've seen Denny kind of normalized. When we go to Darlington this weekend, you mentioned all the short tracks in the chase,

but we have a little stretch of intermediates as well. We finish it at Homestead. Do the Toyotas still have the advantage that they have enjoyed throughout the season? Is that entirely gone? or is it minimized? It depends on who you ask, right? Because I asked a lot of teams about that front structure

and some think it's going to be massive, some think it's going to be no different. Someone's going to have to prove to me on track that Toyota still don't have the advantage. That's where I stand currently. Like I would be shocked if the top four isn't some mixture of Denny Hamlin, Tyler Redick, Chase Briscoe, and Christopher Bell.

That's the, this weekend. Yeah, I mean, no offense. Not only are the best cars, but put them in kind of any car. you know, they're also probably the four that come to mind clearly when we go to Darlington. The outliers are the ones I'm moat. Like, if they run good, I'm like, oh, I expected that. The ones I really am interested in is probably Larson, Byron, Chase, and Blaney, like the four non-Toyotas. I think those are the four non-Toyota contenders for me. How close can they be?

They don't have to win, but they need to be, like, if they're 12th and the Toyota's fill the top five, it's going to be a long 10 weeks. Yeah. I'm just, I really don't know how to evaluate the Hendrick season because they're obviously not winning near where they want to. They do show speed at times, but it's also not like really convincing speed. It's like, oh, they popped up there, oh, you know, look, their cars were fifth to seventh or whatever. But again, in the chase how we knew it, the old chase, that's not going to be good enough at all. with stage points too, that margin's going to get even bigger. If you're not hitting on it right away at the start of the race, if you're not qualifying well, where is this speed going to come from? Like, they're either going to have to turn it on and be like, whoa, there it is. But we really haven't seen enough evidence of that to this point. Well, the numbers agree. Like, if you look at their speed ranking, Larson's the best at fifth, Chase is ranked eighth. And Byron's ranked, where's Ryan ranked? I'm sorry, Byron's eighth when Chase is like 11th. It's not bad.

but it's not going to be good enough. I just wonder, though, like the five car, there were multiple weeks that he was super fast. Like Indies won. I think they blew a left-year-tired indie, any crashes. I just think of the momentum that you build if you don't have that blown tire. And like, where does that move you to?

Like, they clearly don't have the speed that the Toyotas have had all year long. No one's going to argue that point. But momentum's a real thing. And, like, if you get that win, you know, like, we've seen that happen so many times. does that change the outcome over the next three or four weeks? And to me, getting to Darlington, knowing who has saved what,

this weekend is incredibly important for all these guys. My take on Darlington, I will be shocked if Denny Hamlin doesn't go out, set on the pole, and just annihilate everybody. Because I think it's a tremendous track for him. He has shown speed all year long. And I think that mentally, Denny Hamlin is one of those guys that, not that he took last week off, but he's probably been so focused on getting to Darlington

and knowing how good he is at that racetrack and how just the success he's had, I just see this weekend being an incredible weekend for him, but also being an opportunity for all these other guys to show exactly what they have. Back to the Hendrick conversation, what I will say is I thought it took a third of the regular season for them to realize they weren't as fast as they hoped to be.

And then there was another third where they just tried too hard, which I think we all would do. That's not a knock, right? The drivers tried too hard. The crew chief's over crew chief, the pick crew's tried too hard. And like the last third, I feel like they've settled down. And they said, look, if we have a ninth-place car,

we've got to try to run eighth. We can't try to run first. And I think that makes them not championship favorites, but to your point, Jamie, right? It depends on how the chase runs. If they can just operate, kind of block and tackle and meander their way through the first four or five weeks, maybe there'll be something at the end.

I don't see them showing up and dominating Darlington and scoring 70 points. But then again, you know, they've shocked us before. I think Denny Hamlin is arguably a lot of people's favorites to win the championship. When you look at the list of 16 drivers, name two or three that you believe would be his biggest competition. I have a crazy one. I think Ty Gibbs. Why do you think it's crazy? I don't think it's crazy at this desk, but I think the fan base.

I think a lot of people are like, hey, it's two career wins, he's this, he's that. I'll be honest, it wouldn't shock me if Ty goes out and he's okay and he's middle of the chase, which is not bad for as young as he is and he's going to have a great future. but sometime, like he's more mature in the last 18 months or made a bigger curve than perhaps anybody, things that have derailed him in the past, don't derail him anymore, speeding, bad pit stops. Him and Tyler Allen have this. I kind of go back to when you and I were racing, we didn't really listen or care when anybody said. We didn't even know what the news stories were.

I didn't. We just went and did what we do. That group has a little bit of that that they just believe in one another and they go to work and people can write whatever they want. I think that makes Thai dangerous. And he's sitting in one of those Toyotas, right? He's in the meetings with Danny Hamlin and all of these people. So I think Ty is a maybe a sleeper is a better way to put it,

but I think Ty could upset everyone. I'm fascinated by Christopher Bell because here's a guy who, first of all, in the past, he's had some great 10-week stretches. He hasn't won the championship, but he's had some really, he can put together a great 10 weeks at this time of year. But seven second-place finishes. Jamie talked about how the narrative could have been different

for Larson if he wins Brickyard. get momentum. How about you take just less than half. And much closer to winning. Yeah. I mean, like multiple times. Yeah. I mean, give Christopher Bell three wins that would have, you know, momentum-wise, would have moved him up in the standings, would have, hey, you know, they feel better about themselves. They are really dangerous. They are extremely dangerous. Now, I don't know, Steve, where they are on speed ranking, because it feels like they've been a little bit off by their standards, even though they got up to fifth and points after, six and points after bad start. But it just feels like, man, that could be a team where you look back and go,

man, yeah, they didn't win in the regular season, but they are, they smoked it in the chase. Yeah, he's fourth, according to racing insight. So to your point, he's ahead of, look, he's in the Toyota bucket. I mean, that's who, Ryan Blaney is the one guy that, that statistically you can't believe. If you took like brands and cars away, you'd be like, well, he must be in a Toyota. Look at all his numbers, right? He's the one guy that's outperforming, perhaps, expectation of the brand. It's hard, though, with, with Blan. Blaney, like the speed is there, but the pit crew is like the Achilles heel to that. And they've made changes and it's been better, but it hasn't been perfect.

So that speed-wise, Blaney, without a doubt, is really good. The one to me that no one's mentioned now that this weekend could be massive for him is Briscoe, because he's really good at that track. If he goes out and can win that race and leapfrog up, just a few spots in the points. And he's also one that, to me, at every type racetrack we go to, he shows really good speed. And you look at all of the numbers that we use to measure these teams. They're number four on pit crews. He's number one on the restarts.

Little off on speed number seven, but on defense, he's number one, passing number five. Like his numbers, like they just don't lie. And he is one of those guys. I think the crew chief dynamic is incredibly awkward over there. Like I don't, I like James Small as a person, but I don't like the way he talks to him on the radio. I think I just, that would demotivate me so many times. but it doesn't seem to affect Chase. He kind of rubs it off and moves on,

but he's the guy that we're out to keep our eye on. To me, he's fifth and points right now, but I can see him making some noise. Well, like to get dorky into the numbers when I asked the little chat here, best 10-week stretches. When you use AI, you learn that you don't ask the right questions. So I was like, hey, one of the best 10-week stretches,

hoping to get everybody's best. Well, it gave me the top 10, 10-week stretches, and all 10 of them are Reddick or Hamlin. Wow. So the best 10-week stretches in the top 10 has happened. Redick, Hamlin, Redick, Hamlin, Hamlin, Redick, Hamlet. So it's not just one snippet of time. Like the best 10-week runs, the top 10 of them are all Reddick or Hamlin. Then when you look at each driver's best, this is how big of a gap it is. Redick and Hamlin have had weeks

where they've scored over 480 points in 10 weeks. The next best is Blaney at 410, 70 points off. Gibbs 410. Joey Legano is fifth on the list at 375, 105 points off, both Redick and Hamlin's best. So back to kind of what you were saying about mulligans and the math, if it's a messy chase, I think a lot of guys are kind of in the mix. If it's a heavyweight, just go there and just who's fastest every week, I mean, the numbers are really skewed to a few standouts. So, I mean, I don't know. What kind of chase is it going to be?

Reddick makes me nervous, and I was trying to look up exactly where he's finished the last 10 weeks. But it just seemed like all of that momentum was at the beginning of the year. And even though he capitalized on some wins, when you looked at lapslet, Like it just, it wasn't there. It just didn't seem to be. And so, like, I get nervous with the next 10 weeks of, like, the consistency. And do they have the momentum going the right way at the right time? I like Blaney.

When you look at the racetracks that we go to in the chase, if he can, you know, if he can put it together on the ones where they traditionally haven't been very strong this year. You know, the Charlotte, Vegas, Kansas, St. Louis, Darlington. I mean, he's got this, the racetracks that are in the chase are relatively the same racetracks that benefited Penske in the playoffs. And so that's what I think that they're leaning on is like, man, you know, we can, we can go out here and get those two and a half wins in this stretch of ten races somewhere. We just have to make sure the other races aren't awful.

And I also like Briscoe as well. I think Briscoe, when Denny Hamlin looks at this list, I think Denny Hamlin probably respects what Blaney could possibly do and what Chase Briscoe could possibly do. I think, you know, Denny's probably more than confident that he could outrun the rest of them. You know, the wild thing to me, I guess, is more so where Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson are.

at this point in the season. Christopher Bell in sixth, 50 points out, and to y'all's point, just a couple of positions, or a couple of positions gives him a couple of wins, and he's up at the front of this field. While Larson, who has been in the conversation, even this year, is one of the greatest race car drivers on the planet,

kind of struggled and stumbled to a backside of the top 10 result in the regular season. I think something else that you have to keep in mind is if we put all of our notes and computers away and all you did were listen to driver interviews over the past like six weeks, I haven't heard, you mentioned Larson or Chase Elliott, I haven't heard these guys be like, oh yeah, when it starts, it's on. Like we're ready. Not at all, yeah.

But I do hear that out of Denny Hamlin or Ryan Blaney even. Those guys, the confidence that they have or that they express in their interviews, that says a lot about where they think not only that they are as their team, but as an organization. And to me, that tells a bigger story than really any paperwork that we can pull out right now. This is going to, maybe I'm the only one to see this. When I look at Lugano, back to your point about the interviews, like he's the one that I'm not sure the driver has anything to do with if he's going to be a championship contender. I'm like, Joey's going to be fine.

He's got like, whatever the car will go, Joey will go. Whatever strategy you want to run, Joey will run. Like, he's almost like the least wild car driver. You know, I think if he was in faster equipment, we'd be talking about how unbelievable Joey has been because when he has gone with winning equipment, man, it has been in, like, he has not fumbled much. It's the weirdest one, though, to me, because Joey Logano is exceptional driver. And when you look at some of the bigger tracks, Blaney's run pretty well on him.

Totally. But Joey hasn't. But then they go to North Wilkesboro and they just crush everybody, right? And you're like, well, dang, once they got the car right, and you know Paul is exceptional also at his job. But for some reason, something hasn't meshed up for those guys at the faster tracks. I'll tell you, though, when Lugano speaks of Blaney, the reverence is unbelievable. Yeah, a lot of respect. There's no one who seems to be a bigger Ryan Blaney fan or cheerleader than Joey Ligano. Every time he says, he goes, he's so good. I think it's incredible. Anybody who has ever worked with Ryan Blaney or who's been a part of that organization, how high they talk about his ability to drive a race car and like quick movements inside of the car.

You know, he reminds me so much of Casey Kane because the interviews outside, he's just quiet and like just so calm. Then he puts his helmet on and every other word's an F-bomb when something goes wrong. But he also is just incredibly fast, you know, especially at fast racetracks. It reminds me a lot of Casey and then the performance is there as well. What's the biggest X factor for a team in this system where like pick crew, things like that? So I guess the conversation I'd like to get to is how important. You mentioned Blaney and his pit crew not really being on top of the world this year and the struggles they've had. In the older system, man, the pit crew was super important.

You knew of the four guys that were going to be racing for the championship. the pit crew is going to play a role in that day, one way or another. And while the pit crew still needs to be competitive, has that sort of regressed to where it sort of belongs in the recipe of a great team? What is, you know, how valuable or how, you know, how can a team overcome with an average? pitch crew and still succeed in this format? I think it's a great question and I would have told you

without looking at what I have written down here that the pit crew still is an important factor as you can have but when you look at Blaney being the second seed his pick crew was 16 of the 16 pick crew's in the chase Reddick who's third in points his pick crew's 14th of the 16 crews in this and Gibbs is 11th he's fourth in point so I don't know when you look at that it it makes you think that maybe it's not as big of a determining factor as what we all want to put on it. I think it's a determining factor, but not for these teams. Josh Barry had a winning car at New Hampshire. And everybody talks about one slow stop. I don't agree. Every stop they did was 10.5 seconds. And this isn't a knock on a 21 car, but that's how fast they go.

Reality. And the best teams do nine threes. So every time Josh Barry comes down Pet Road, normally if he's running 15th, you don't see it. But when he is exceptional, which he was, It was glaring. He just lost spots every time. So I only equate that to speed. All these teams have the ability to do the same speed pit stops. It'll come down a mistake. I wrote down 90%. And what I mean by that is I think this car, these races, these pit crews. If you can operate at 90%, everything's great. If you can have an extra half a pound of air pressure, you don't fail tires. If you can drive at 90%. Rarely does that thing snap around on you. We've seen great drivers wreck like in the blink of an eye. Pit crews. If you can, it's a lot. It's, if you can, it's, If everything is so good that you can take that two-tenths of a second to glance to make sure the wheels are put on and drop the jack, you may lose a spot to your point, but you stay in it. So I think it's like that's what I'd be coaching my team too, is if we come in fifth and out six, every single pit stop in the chase, that would be good enough. We can't come in fifth and out 29th or have a wheel come off like I'd have for Byron or the issues, you know, those mistakes, I think are more glaring. So, I mean, to answer your question, I do believe that the pick crew has become a little bit more. I really think there's more bad and good stops because of strategy and fuel and adjustments than there are the humans doing them.

I think it's pretty even across the board barring the mistakes. I think that's the big variation we see. I just think you're exactly right. Again, we seem to be thinking here that it's going to be a clean chase or the champion is going to have a relatively clean chase. It's not going to be, you know, three DNFs and you can somehow win this. It's just not going to happen. So you can't have your pit crew be responsible for the Mulligans. If you have a Mulligan that you can't come down on the last stop.

Look, if your pit crew doesn't get you out first on the last stop and you finish third instead of winning, I mean, that could cost you a lot of points. But it's, you said 29th. I mean, if that ruins your day, you leave a wheel loose. You have to come back down under green. It's over. I mean, that could ruin your chase right there. So just don't, you can't have them take you. out of it. Just hold serve if you can. Even

not. Like, just don't make a massive mistake. Let the driver, let the strategy, let some fluke mechanical thing or some, you know, whatever happens in racing in general. But to have the pit crew be responsible for that, that's going to be hard to swallow. Outside of Talladega in the schedule, I'll run through the schedule real quick, Darlington, St. Louis, Bristol, Kansas, Las Vegas, Charlotte, Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville, Homestead. which racetrack is the one that's kind of the biggest wild card

that could provide us the shock winner or the biggest point swing? Well, you'd have to say Talladega. Outside of Talladega. Oh, outside. I should have listened to the question. I have an early one. I think worldwide technology in St. Louis is going to be really difficult. Why?

Break issues. I think to be good. You think 2311 is nervous about going on. So back to what we were talking about, I think when I talk about, you know, when I talk about, about the garage. It used to be tires. People are like, oh, man, we're getting tires, tires. That was the buzz. And now, man, I talk to guys and they keep telling me how they're not, like, I don't get a lot of confident answers like, well, you do this,

you definitely won't have break issues. I know. Well, surely you know, like what knob to turn. And you can just read in their face. We're like, they don't know. They are not sure what knob it is. So they can be overcooled. They can be undercooled. You as a driver. So I just feel like we could go there and can be a non-story. But if you're asking which one outside of Tallade, could be a story, I think a huge name could have a mechanical. Get that mulligan right away, even could be from the lead. And you're talking about 50, like you've given up everything right there in one week. That's every time that I can recall that we thought we might have break issues, we've had them. There's not, there's not, you know, we've, we, as broadcasters, we kind of

tiptoe into those things because we don't want to start a story that's not a story. You don't want to be the guy that made a big deal out of something that didn't even happen during the day. but every time we sort of started going man breaks breaks right you know yeah at some point in the race there are two or three four guys that were like having issues and you're like shit I think Martinsville yeah I say Martinsville because if you look at every driver that's in the chase

even Denny Hamlin at some point he's had a disastrous Martinsville like it's one of those places you can't hide if things get off it's one of those tracks that I feel like if your car's not right you're just helpless at that place. It's not like you move your line around and try to find grip somewhere. You're kind of stuck with what you have. So if I had to pick one on there that would make me, I mean, I think if you're, and I'll use Denny's example, because I said him, incredible at that racetrack. But he's also had some struggles there. And so to me, that would be

one that's kind of the outlier that, I mean, outside of Talladega that I think everyone's had, had a bad day out before. I've got one that's not going to make sense on the surface, but give me a second. Charlotte. I know by then we will have seen everybody's cards on mile and a half tracks and all that stuff. But traditionally, I mean, first of all, we haven't run that race in the fall on the Oval in, what, 10 years or something, right? And traditionally, that halfway point of the chase and that part, everything has started to ratchet up. You kind of know who the contenders are. This is a pivotal moment to wino, like the last three, four guys leaving Charlotte, who's going to be competitive.

and we often saw that was when guys really started to go head to head. I mean, everybody, you know, had gotten to home, you know, they will have had Kansas and Vegas by then, I think, and you're going to go to Charlotte. It's going to be the air is starting to turn crisp. The pressure is going to be on. And that's when you could get a mistake, guys running into each other, something weird happening, and everything seemed to flip. because the pressure element of this always seems to change the outcome.

Or like, I mean, take this further. Imagine if, you know, we were talking about who can be in it. Imagine if you let Blaney or Lugano close and give it a sniff coming into Talladega, Martinsville, Homestead. Like, you can't, you can't really afford if you're the Toyota's to, you want to, you know, get them out early, get them buried. Because if you give some of those drivers a chance, going, you know, they're still alive, that's a whole different ball game.

So two things that jump out with the chase. First of all is I'm not sure this garage area is ready for 70 days. They've had like three weeks, take a breath, reset, three weeks, take a breath. And I'm going to tell you 70 days is forever, like forever. And there's no laps off, there's no qualifying off, there's no per race off. Every point you get goes into the bucket. Like it's literally like trying to save up for a car, right, one paycheck at a time. over like 10 weeks is a marathon. And I think it's going to be mentally exhausting.

But then you said it. I circled Kansas, Vegas, and Charlotte and three mile and a halfs back to back to back. And it's like there's no variety. There's no, man, you just better be fast at all three. So to your point, I think if you're one of these 16, I would tell my guys, we're just going to come in and run our race for three or four weeks. People eliminate themselves.

Let's not be one of them. But I agree with your assessment. When we leave Charlotte, we won't be talking about 16, 10, And I don't even think we're talking about eight or six. I bet we're probably down to what? With four races left, we're probably down to what five guys or less that there might be more mathematically. But there's five guys that we all think it's going to come out of one of those for a championship. I think what we still have not seen in recent years that I'm looking for to getting back to is we haven't really seen these top guys go head to head at the late time of year.

Because it was always still about advancing to rounds. and then you get to the championship race, and then you can race it out in that final race. When you get guys that are in a points battle and they're really, you know, all those three intermediates or whatever and you're trying to position yourselves, that's a, you know,

I want to see Denny and Larson go head to head. I want to see Blaney Briscoe, side by side on a restart, you know, if they're close in points, something like that. Like that's going to be compelling. That's where the rivalries can form that we really haven't seen with the top guys.

We've seen hosts of our versus a lot of guys. We haven't seen the top guys versus a lot of the top guys. All right, NASCAR fans, listen up. Xfinity is waving the red flag on internet price hikes, and they're raising the green flag for savings. Now you get the speed and reliable Wi-Fi that you need locked in at one price for five years, no surprises, no late yellows,

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at the house. Xfinity, imagine that. We saw a lot of people that made the chase that we expected to make the chase. One team that might have overachieved in a lot of people's eyes was Spire placing Daniel Suarez

and Carson Hosevar in 11th and 12th. So both of those guys, I mean, at one point, Hosevar was quite a bit higher in points, but has had a rough little stretch leading up to the end of the regular season. But do you believe they overachieved? I think Spire has been the most, I don't think, it's a fact, the most improved organization in the past three to five years. I mean, they were literally a starting, I mean, a starting part.

It was not even buying tires. And you just, it's incredible where they are now and the speed that they have with all their teams, and not just in the Cup Series with what they're doing in the Truck Series as well. And that is, it's so hard to do. I mean, especially at the Cup level to be able to come in and perform the way they have. And it's not like they went out and hired a Denny Hamlin or Kyle Larson to, come in and drive that, right? I mean, they brought some of these kids up. They brought Svarez over. And the host of our thing, though, is just, it's just fascinating to me. The speed

that Carson has at some of these tracks, but then, you know, you look at the last two weeks, and you're just like, it's hard to watch, you know? And then the interview afterwards, you're just like, man, it's tough. But it's incredible to see what Spire's been able to pull off the last two or three years. The Daniel Sourrez part is intriguing to me because Daniel has been one of these guys. He's been at Gibbs, Stuart Haas, and all of those deals, they didn't retain him. They didn't see value to keep him. He gets over to Spire and gets in the seven car, which has had a pretty, you know, rough couple of years.

Hadn't been a very quick car at all. I mean, just even a year and a half ago, the 77 was really the only, performing car at Spire period. All the other cars were still kind of on their old deal, where they were just kind of, you know, show up, get us a top 25. And Daniel gets in that car and grinds out a spot in a chase. I wouldn't have guessed that was going to happen. He upgraded.

He did. He got let go and got upgraded. Grind is the magic. So Ryan Sparks is on top of the box. He's been at Spire really the longest. I think he was employee one or two or three. And him and Suarez, they, that's the perfect word. If Hosevar is the news story and the flash and the fireworks and he's normally the faster of the three cars,

like Swares ranked 16th, 16th, 16th, 16th, 16th, and 13th. Not good. The only thing he's not 16th is his pick crew, yet he's 11th in points. Like, Swares is that driver. If you're any team, right, you have to scratch your head by like, man, I was even here. They just The nicest thing I can say Is they just don't make news

In either direction Other than the big win at Charlotte Which was amazing They just kind of like oh seventh The other thing that Suarez does That I see is a outlier He separates himself from most of the field Is he doesn't give up spots

Yeah He is not a guy That's going to roll over Like oh you know You're faster, go ahead he is not a guy that gives up spots and I don't know if he like typically a driver

yeah we're in the middle of a you know a 10 month season it's lap 100 at this at the 12th race of the year what's the point you're quicker go ahead you'll give me this back a couple weeks down the road maybe he doesn't do that he doesn't subscribe to that idea

and so while he may be on paper the 16th best team out there due to his stubborn, you know, approach, kind of comparable to Ryan Newman in some ways. He's a hard pass. And it nets him a couple of spots a week, you know? I mean, him being in this is so improbable. Like to think that a guy, I mean, he was probably, what, 30th in points or something last year and he gets booted out.

And it wasn't like Spire for a while seemed to be like, oh, please come over here. They were like, who else can we get? All right. Yeah, Daniel, you're still there. We need somebody. All right, let's do this. Try it for a year. I don't know if it's going to work, but we don't really have high expectations.

And he not only makes the chase, but like it wasn't even close, right? Like, if you would have said, all right, Daniel Suarez is going to make the chase, first you would have been like, really? Wow, how does he do that? And then you would have thought, well, he probably was in the pre-situation. Last gasped Daytona figured out a way to get in there. He went to Daytona. He's already good.

Like he had a great regular season, you know, showed off all the veteran stuff that you're talking about. So just super impressive, super surprising to me. I mean, Jordan Bianca and I had gone through our chase predictions and see how they stacked up. And we had all of the guys that made it, you know, between the two of us, except for Suarez. I mean, he wasn't on anybody's radar. I mean, imagine sitting before the season and you're like, oh, Swarra's going to make the chase. You'd be like, man, you have no idea what you're talking about. Do you even pay attention to this sport?

Yeah. But, yeah, I mean, he's just, I'm so impressed with him. I think that's a, like, as you guys are talking about all this, just kind of looking at Daniel's numbers, the least amount of stage points by quite a bit of anybody that made the chase. And then when you look at just the overall results, there's a lot of 14th, 13th, 17th, it's crazy to me that he was able to capitalize on, you know, it's one thing if you scored a bunch of stage points,

but you didn't get the finishes. We see people score high in points that way, but I don't really see anything that sticks out of why he should have been where he was in the points, but just didn't have the disasters. What shocks me and you two are both drivers, so maybe you have some insight. We're drivers, but he is stubborn. And in this, you know, connotation, that's like, hey, man, you're stubborn.

Congratulations. It's great. But most of those stubborn drivers get shipped every once in a while. Like people run, like the cup run over and they lose their mind. They're like, I've had enough of you. He's shown enough outside the car, not to get anybody going to ship him. He'll come up and put you in a headlock. I think my point, though, is that.

Like, he's some, I was going to ask how you guys did it, but it's like, I don't, you know. Well, you know, he's, if you push him around, he gets out of the car and comes down and he'll talk to you. I like it. And it's a very potential, there's high potential that it might get physical. And I think that that allows him to go out on the track and stand his ground a little more firm than the next guy, right? And I just, I think it's pretty fascinating. I want to move to Carson Hosevar and we'll expose ourselves to some criticism from his fan base. But does he, does he sort of, you know, he's been for the most part comfortably in the check.

right but it has been a bit of a free fall outside the top 10 um do you think that he can you know gather it together right and and and start putting the races together um or is he going to uh or is it going to just take a while is he still going to kind of be this send it uh you know kind of um you know throw caution to the wind by the the seat of your pants, on a prayer, Hail Mary. You know, he's got, he has the flair for the, for the, um, dramatic, uh, good and bad, you know, and, and so how does he find a balance that produces the points that he's going to need, right, to go up there and make a run for this?

I'll let you jump on the grid. You look like you're ready to get kicked in the nuts first. Go ahead. I was looking. I'm right behind you. So, go ahead. I was looking at Jeff. I like it.

It was probably not fair. Yeah. I see it going. One of two ways, right? It could either be, I mean, I think most people think it's probably going to be like he's going to do something stupid. He's going to get into it with another chase driver. He's going to make some, you know, move that backfires on a restart, all that kind of stuff. And I think that's probably, and then it will snowball or spiral because he will have had one bad week and he tries too hard.

That's very possible. And it's hard to see him based on what we've seen lately putting together a clean 10 weeks. The one thing I do think, though, is like, this guy is the old school racing. fan, right? Like, he sits there and he watches, you know, race day on speed from 2008 Charlotte Fall Race or whatever, right? Like, just because he's, he just has it on his YouTube playlist. So he knows the old chase. Like, not very many of these guys have any experience with the old chase. I mean, Danny and Lagano. I mean, most of these guys,

they're racing in it for the first time. This guy, at least he's watched all those old races. He's seen all the interviews of, hey, you've got to be, you know, what we talked about the average finish. Somewhere in the of his mind is probably like, all right, it's chase time. This is what I have to do. Now, can he actually do that and keep his composure and not lose his mind for 10 weeks? I don't know that we've seen enough evidence of that, but it's there. I bet that he knows what he has to do, at least. I think the challenge for Hosevar is the best version for Hosevar on the racetrack doesn't fit a 10-week run. It fits three-week rounds and the flare and the dramatic. And

his talent is undeniable, but his approach is very much. very lighthearted. I'm not saying he does not prepared, but he's just, like you said, man, if he just zigs and zags and does whatever the car thinks it needs to be, and it's fun to watch, and the fans love him, and I'm fine with all that, but he's a little bit like Deschambeau in the golf world. And luckily for Deschambeau, the golf that says hit it as absolutely far as you can, and that's going to improve your chances of winning. And I think the way Carson drives increases his chance of winning on a weekly basis, but it decreases. his chance of scoring the most points in 10 weeks. And the only concern I have for Carson is,

I go back to Ross Chastain, like something has changed when he wasn't his self or his original person that we saw drive. And I think the best version of Carson is this version. And if you do get him to calm down, even if it's a self-correction, even if he says, man, I studied and I think I need to be a little bit less boisterous or less, you know, dramatic and less flare. Man, is that his secret sauce. Is he still is dangerous? Because some of his secret sauce is that he will zig when everybody else is zagging. And like him or don't like him or appreciate what he does or not, he absolutely wrecked that thing on his own at Daytona while passing for the lead in the closing laps of the race. Like he didn't do it from 26th. And I think that's what makes him so much fun to

watch is it was a huge mistake. And he admits it, right? It happens. It happens every race car driver. But it happened right at the biggest point on the biggest stage at the cut race. Like, I mean, he's a lot of He will make headlines for 10 weeks. I'm just not sure there's going to be enough positive headlines to overcome just simple errors when it comes to point total. He's hard to figure out. I just, you're watching on the track and then you watch the interview. You know, the, and I think the Ross Chastain is is a fair comparison, but I also feel like when Ross gets back in cars that have the same speed that he had when he was that guy, that we will see similar performance.

I think Ross's exceptional talent as well. It's just trackhouse is off a little bit right now. The thing about Carson, and you're right, we're just going to get our ass kicked for talking about it. But, you know, like, and the criticism that people have is because they don't agree with our opinion of it. But everyone within the sport, UI, the other drivers, we look at not what, sells the most t-shirts and not what gets the most clicks on social media we look we we analyze people based on what we think will win them the most races and have a shot at win in a championship and the way carson goes about his business right now that's not a good it's not a

good formula that he has going like that he is incredibly fast the thing that makes me a little bit nervous is that when i hear his interviews afterwards i don't feel i mean if he does know what happened, he doesn't, he doesn't, like, admit it on TV or say it. It's like, I feel like the word I don't know comes out of his mouth more than any other phrase. Like, well, I don't know. I don't know. Like, it's just, and it's over and over. And, and maybe that's the, you know, we all have nervous ticks or, or just sayings that we revert back to. And maybe when they go back as a team and they watch it, he's like, listen, this is what I did wrong and this is what I need to do differently the next time. But he doesn't convey that to us. And so when you, when you analyze him, it's, it's a

tough study because you just don't you just don't see the right formula there for what what you're going to need in this he you know he prides himself on being different right he prides himself on taking the line that nobody else takes nobody else thought of you know you'll look at some of the social media posts and it'll be everybody up high on the track and then he's the one car that's down doing something different and so to me it's like his aggressiveness and you know in some some cases creativity on the track um it's it's very boomer bust it's it's it's It's, you know, Keselowski, if you look at his move at Texas that he tried to go on Gordon, you know, back in the chase that caused the brawl.

Very similar. That move now, in modern day standards, is not that different controversial at all, really. I mean, that's sort of the norm now. At the time, though, that was crazy. Like, whoa. And I think that Hosevar's aggressiveness is something that other people will try to match and catch up to. But right now, he is sort of the Keselowski that we look. looked at Brad that way for a while. Now, I brought this up to Brad, and he's like, yeah,

but I was going for wins. Carson's doing that for 12. You know, he's, he's making moves and making people angry 15. It's okay, you know, to be doing that for a win, but Carson's not always doing that for a win. He's back in the field doing that. So, hey, this is Delin Hart Jr. And for all the latest Dale Jr. download gear, including the I'm old drink some beer t-shirt that we've been talking about here around the office, head over to shop.dart.Durtymo Media. for all the latest merch. When you look at the NASCAR correctly weighed the value of doing well in the regular season.

And so if you do well in the regular season, you start with a great point advantage. If you barely squeak into the chase or if you come into the backside of the 13th, 14, 15th, and 16th, you got quite a steep mountain to climb. And I wonder what the mindset is for a Ryan Priest, an Austin, Cendrick, and a Bubba Wallace, even, sitting 90 to 100 points out with 10 races to go, knowing how good the competition is weighed toward the top of the chase. When we were doing this, Jamie and Steve,

we were in a much better numerical position if we were in the backside of the chase. We were much closer to the leader when this thing started. What was the difference from first to 12th? What was it then? I don't remember. I feel like it was a lot less. Way less.

Almost zero, wasn't it? I felt like zero. I think the first year, the Newman year, it was all zeros, I think. That was the playoff chase. But I think, well, also it was a different point system. It was. That's right, yeah.

But yeah, it was pretty close. It was pretty close. I mean, I believe that if you're anything, let's be mathematically, Hosevar Down cannot leave Darlington leader. They cannot. They're behind an entire race. Yeah. I think you just have to say, you know what?

Our goal is to leave Miami higher than we entered. And I don't know that sounds silly, but you can't say that Ryan Preece, Cindrick, Bubba Wallace, Bairn or Hosevar, to a man's man, if you talk to, I don't, I don't speak to the drivers about this, but I definitely talk to all their crew chiefs. they will all they're very honest like man we just don't have the speed the championship speed to do it over 10 weeks it isn't rounds we have to be great that could change five weeks in maybe it all comes apart from somebody else and you end up in the right spot but i think they're very honest but here's the thing when when you're in that position and it's it's i think it's so easy for us to look at numbers and say well they're mathematically they shouldn't be able to do it the reality is when you race every single weekend you know where you stack up right there's there's no you've been doing doing this for the last 20-some weeks, and you're like, just don't have the speed. And we talk about it every Tuesday in our meeting, like, what do we have to do to get better? So your expectation, like, I mean, not knocking on anyone, but if you're in that lower half, none of those guys are,

like, everybody wants to win the championship. But the reality is, when you lay it down and put your head on your pillow at night, you're like, I hope we get in the top 10. You know, you have to set a more realistic goal for what, you can't set this unattainable goal because you'll, you'll just be deflated every single week. I mean, that's my point about improving. Like, Hosevar was fifth at one point. So I don't think they're thinking, we're going to win a championship,

but if they come in 12... He could get back to fifth, though. That's what I mean. If he finished fifth, I think they would have to be like, what an unbelievable chase we had. I mean, they moved up seven spots, and then you take that building block back to your original.

If you're any of these guys, and you exit 10 weeks from now up four or five spots, you say, guys, if we can just enter five sports higher, five points, then is a championship. You know what I mean? And I think it's hard as a team to sit in a, a meeting and be like, well, we're not going to win the championship. Right.

It's kind of an unknown. You don't just go in and say, well, we have no chance this year, right? But there's also reality in your head of what you think is realistic and what you're going to be happy with. So let's go ahead. All four of us make our championship pick. And why? I mean, it's so, you could say this so many different years that it's going to be Denny.

Every year we say this is his best shot. Yeah. I mean, it's the last best chance, right? Like, and, you know, you go into this year and he just, he had the offseason he had, he had the heartbreak. He says, oh, by the way, my shoulders injured. And you're like, well, that's it. You know, he's just, it's not going to be the year. And he wins a regular season championship.

He looks as good as he ever has for much of the year. They don't seem to have a lot of flaws with that team. And, you know, especially once Redick fell off from where he was, and you're like, well, he doesn't really have somebody that's challenging him on a weekly basis. I mean, if you're not going in saying Hamlin, aren't you just sort of saying, well, something's going to happen to him? You're almost projecting like, well, I'm not saying Denny because he'll wreck at Talladega or how a mechanical failure. I'm not saying all your picks for you, obviously. I'm interested to hear yours.

But I just feel like, how do I, on performance alone, if we're looking at this, how do I say, yeah, Bell is going to come from 50 points back and beat all these guys. I just think Denny's the driver of the year, the team of the year, and so I have to go with that regardless of the luck that we've seen historically from them. Mine's boring as well. I always say I'm going to pick the guy I'm okay with being wrong with, and that's Denny. I mean, he got beat last year.

He was one caution away from everybody being right saying it was his year. The only, I guess, asterisks I would put is if it's not Hamlin, I hope somebody has a priest type of, you know, like I said, SVG didn't kind of get knocked out. Priest took it. So if it's Hamlin, I just want somebody to be better than him. You know, I don't want to be a power steering failure or a flat tire. I know all that matters and it's 10 weeks and all that stuff.

But from what I've seen out of that team, the organization, he's driving a Toyota. I have, it would just be a wasted pick to pick somebody else. Not that they couldn't. I just don't believe they will. Like if I had to ask, I think Hamlin is the guy currently at the top. and he's been there for quite some time. So I also have to go with Hamlin as boring as you agree. You feel like it's a boring pick, but it's truly what I think.

Well, if you're listening to this and you don't pick Denny, you're a moron. I'll just say that right now. Oh, shit, better change my. We can talk about everything. There's so many facts that lean towards wanting to pick Denny. If you just look at the eyeball test of what you watch every single weekend, he wins that test. If you look at the numbers of wins, top five, top tens, laps lead, like just everything,

he wins that as well. He's got a great pick crew. He's got a great team. And the most important thing for me with Denny, as it's getting closer to the end of his career, is that Steve said, like, the longest 70 days, Denny has lived the disappointment more than anybody else in the series. And as we close in on these final 10 races, he's been through it more than anyone. and he's lived the wrong side of it more than anyone.

And he used to say this, and I didn't believe him at all. I think he's content not winning. I think he's won enough in his career. I mean, ultimately, he should have won the championship last year, right? With the caution comes out, he's had enough disappointments that I think, you know, as he thinks about what he's accomplished, this is a bonus. But he is the pick this year. And I don't even care if he has a bad Darlington.

He's still the pick this year to win the championship. Yeah, I like everything you said there, Jamie. I feel the same way. Denny Hamlin, I think if we had a 36 race championship or if we had had this system in place over the last decade or more, Denny would be a multi-time champion today. This, Denny, as we say every year, this is his best year. This is his best year. He literally has been improving year over year over year on his ability to put races together,

get to the end, outpoint guys, outperform guys. There's other people that do well and have spurts and have moments. But Denny has consistently been there every single year. And this system is an advantage to him. Going to this system is an advantage to him. I think he latched onto that this year and the confidence in that. He is, he had to talk himself. out of wanting to win that championship.

He had to tell himself, I'm going to be okay if I don't win this, because he knew in the old system how ridiculous it was. And he's like, you know what, I can't even, I can't even like embrace this because of how by chance it is, especially after last year. It's like, yeah, whatever.

You know, it's just hard to make it to the, I'm proud. of just getting to the final four. That's a hell of an accomplishment. Well, he's had it, he's been beaten. Yeah. In every way that you can get beat. Yeah.

Every format, like you just, it's happened numerous times. And that's why I say that, you know, when he talked about that, that he doesn't have to win this to feel like he, I believe him. Because, because ultimately he's won it a couple of times. They just didn't give him the trophy. That's right. So the question is, you said, what's the biggest wild cart other than Talladega? So if you form that question here and say, all right, if everyone has Hamlin, who's a driver that can upset him or can beat him.

Blaney. I think Blaney is a great choice. I'll stick with Ty Gibbs. I know that's a little bit more of a long shot. I like Blaney, but for the sake of a pod and a conversation, I don't think Ty Gibbs is completely a crazy... It would be more shocking than other names, but I think it's possible.

If the structure changes at the car, you know, that they did at the car before Wilkesboro around that period of time, if that stuff has had any effect, I just looking at the tracks, I feel like Blaney has the best shot. I mean, I think Denny is by far going to be difficult to beat. Who can get the closest? You know, I give Blaney a good shot at it. So it feels like it's Blaney and some Toyotas.

Yeah. I mean, seriously, though, like if you were Joe Gibbs racing and Blaney wins the championship and all four your drivers somehow. Well, you've got to go over here that kind of went through that on the other series. Yeah. At Phoenix. Yeah. Well, well done, man.

I mean, once we open the door, you can scream it through the shop over here. I'm sure it's a tough. No, no, there is something to be said for that, right? Like, they, nobody says it. Back to the meetings. Nobody's in there. You know, the championship goes through here. They're walking around feeling, just like Hendry Motorsports, they're walking around,

feeling that they only have two wins because of everything they've accomplished. If you're Joe Gibbs racing, you're walking around happy. You got your cars in. You're not sad about it. But that's real. That's looming that, man. What if we don't do it this year? Gosh, darn it, that would be awful.

Right? It's like those things are real. And if you're Blaney, even though I agree with your pick, you're kind of like, man, I'm the little engine that could. I'm going to prove everybody wrong. Like, there's different motivations through the whole set of standings. All right. We're going to jump to the O'Reilly series and finally the Truck Series before we wrap up today's show.

Looking at the O'Reilly series standings, you've got Darlington, St. Louis, Bristol, Vegas, Charlotte, Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville, Homestead. Justin Algar had an incredible season. And Carson Quaple had a couple of great runs late in the year to kind of climb himself up into the top two.

There's a lot of heavy hitters throughout the field. Last year's champion, Jesse Love, Austin Hill, Brandon Jones, Sheldon Creed and third. You got Corey Day, Sammy Smith, Parker Ritzlath, Sam Mayor Taylor Gray, and then Rajah Krooth with a great final race in the regular season

at Daytona be able to get into the top 12 there to make the O'Reilly's chase. You know, I know I have my own opinions. I don't think anybody really wants to hear those since I'm the owner of two of the cars, or actually four of the cars, two of the top two, but four of the cars in the in the in the in the in the in the chase.

But what has to happen for Justin? I mean, he's kind of in Denny Hamlin's shoes, I would say, where he's he's kind of got this this great opportunity to go out there and finish the season strong and continue what he's done all year long. But, you know, do you have that confidence in Justin that you might have in Denny on the on the cup side or is there another team or another, you know? I just don't see how how is somebody? going to come and beat Justin Algeyer over the course of this big of a sample size. It's just so hard to

that they would have to have so many things go wrong. And look, Carson's been great lately, obviously. I mean, they're really coming on strong. But I still feel like Justin Algeyer, the veteran that he is, and knowing, you know, how to race for a championship, these tracks are good, great places for him where he's so much experience. And I just don't see another team. I mean, you look at like Jesse Love, it feels like every single thing has gone wrong for him the season. He's fourth in points. So you're like, it's that big of a drop off. Like, they're, not even close to where the top two guys have been performing. And he's fourth, like, where it gets pretty bad after that then, like in terms of guys catching Justin Algar. And it's the same sort of thing

with Denny. Like, okay, like, you're Taylor Gray and you're like, man, I've, hey, I'm in a JGR car and we could go do this. But you're starting 75 points back. That's like, that's too much to overcome, I think. I think it's an Allgaier-Qaupil conversation. For All-Geyer, I think he's the standout favorite. As long as they, I think it's important that they get going like they've been running, like not anything better.

Just because the reset can be a negative when you had such a huge advantage. It would be easy like, oh, look at what we got away, gave away. Instead of saying, we've earned a 25 point advantage. I think that would be important internal. Like, I'd be like, we earn 25. five points. We didn't give anything away from the huge lead we had. So Allgaier and Quaple, I will say the one name, and I don't think he's a championship of battling Allgaier, but I think he will finish higher. We keep talking about drivers and what's a good goal.

Corey Day coming in 7th, it was a steep learning curve in February. He's definitely up that curve a little bit. I don't think he's by any means where Allgaier or Quaple is, probably not even Creed. But I'm excited to see what Corey Day does now that he's been in the car more. But yeah, I agree. I think Allgaier, just the experience alone. Corey Day is definitely the guy on the list that I think can make the most noise

over the next they have nine races left right. Am I saying that right? Man, you're the old rally guy. Well, I know,

but we've been talking Cup the whole time. It appears to be nine. It appears to be nine. Yeah, nine, right. Yeah, well. Corey, to me,

has been, like, you know, Talladega a little bit unexpected to be able to win that, but what he did at Dover when he ran Justin down, past him on the top side, It was incredible.

And I think it shows his potential. There's still a little bit of a learning curve there, but I see him winning one or two races before the years over. The championship will come down to Allgaier and Carson. To me, Allgaier's weakness, and he only has one, and I feel like it has plagued him almost his entire career, is to pit or not to pit, and the process of that. And for a while, and I would love to,

I would love to know the inside of this, but for a while I would always blame the crew chief. But then as it's happened over like two or three crew chiefs, I'm like, to me, like that's the only weakness, though, the seven team is,

I mean, Justin's won 30-some races, and he probably should have won 15 more. If Cautions hadn't come out at the end of these races, what makes Carson dangerous to me is that he has the momentum right now on his side. And I saw him walk in here a second ago, carrying a trophy. I'm like,

it's a lot of confidence for that young man with nothing to lose. So, and the fact that he's going to be back here next year, I think that's going to be fun to watch those two go go at it. Well, and also just worth noting that, unless I'm mistaken, I'm missing something, O'Reilly and trucks have never had this format before, right? Because they had season long, and then they eventually changed it straight to playoffs. They never did a chase.

That is the one thing that's unique. Great point. And it's really important in the truck and the O'Reilly series, because you guys know that, one, two, maybe multiple cup guys are going to put together pretty flawless runs through these 10 races if nothing falls off the race car, right? They're going to have really low average finishes. It's going to be pretty, pretty impressive. Typically, that's how it goes. In the truck series and in the O'Reilly series, man, you know, those guys can easily get caught up in a moment, right?

and take a risk that's unnecessary and, you know, they're going to need a molligan or two. Whereas I think that's a benefit to Justin. Huge benefit. Yeah. This veteran that knows, I just got to go do what I'm doing. He doesn't ever seem to get worked up either. Even when all the tires fall off, he's kind of the same guy, been there. I mean, he's, look, he's Denny Hamlin of the O'Reilly series.

You talk about people that keep getting better. he literally keeps getting better every single year. He's not going to let a 20-something-year-old driver overcook it for third and wreck him. Like not it, but he's going to see it out of his side mirror and he's going to be like, you're going to have third today. Because I'm not sure you're going to make the corner, and if you do, you can have third.

He just makes a lot of those wise game-time decisions where he's like, nope, nope, I'm going to survive to race again next week. All right, moving on to the truck series. We've got Bristol, Kansas, Charlotte, Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville, Homestead, Lane Riggs leads over Caden Honeycutt, those two guys, I'm telling you, in terms of driver, talent, ability, their work ethic, how badly that they want to get to the top level and how confident they are in their own abilities.

I mean, they're very, very similar guys. You got Chandler Smith back in third, Christian Eckes, Gio Regerio, Ty Majeski, back in sixth, Grant Infinger, Daniel Hemrick. Ben Rose and Tyler Ancrum. I think it really comes down to Lane and Caden. It's going to be a fascinating, fun, handful of races to watch and see how that plays out. I mean, it's going to be a bad.

And front row stuff right now is, I mean, they are, the drivers are unbelievable, the trucks are unbelievable. It's going to be, you said it, you know, it's going to be a great head-to-head battle. That's what I'm so looking for to, for trucks in particular. You really have two heavyweight guys who have pretty much dominated the season, right?

and the opportunity to see them have this large sample size, just see what they got, right? Like every week we're going to be watching those two guys. Now, Chandler Smith, you know, just people that get up there for sure. But like, if they race the way that they're capable of, they're going to be finishing one, two in stages, they're going to be finishing one, two in races. It's going to be close.

It's going to be fun. There's going to be drama because they're going to get into it. They're going to not be happy with each other at times. and I think that one is setting up to be a real fun one. I feel like every time I turn the truck race on, Lane Riggs is leading now. I turn it on, like, oh my God, the guy's leading again. Like, I thought he started last.

Like, you know, I had an issue. He clearly seems to be the fastest. Caden, though, I follow him because of the cars tour as well. I watch him on all the short track stuff. He's come a long ways, and he's super passionate. He drives extremely hard. And I think he will give Lane a run for his money. you know, if I had to bet on it,

the Lane would be my pick right now. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how that works out. I've watched both those guys. Lane come out of late model stocks. We raced against him many, many years with Josh Barry and the Cars Tour and watched him win National Championships and Caden as well come through the Cars Tour, watched him run a ton of races around the short tracks here in the Southeast. And honestly, I don't know which guy is more talented than the other.

And it's just going to come down to, you know, who has the right truck. on the right day, minimizing mistakes on pit road and pit stops and things like that. Lane Riggs' truck does look a little bit quicker at times. As you mentioned, Jamie. Well, it's the whole organization

looks really good. I mean, because both of those trucks, a lot of times like, wow, they're running first and second. I mean, and those guys are great drivers as well, but it's hard to get both guys to be the fastest, you know, so I think it says a lot about where front row is. For sure. Well, it's been a fun conversation.

I've enjoyed sort of their peek into what we believe is going to go down over the next several races for both for all three top NASCAR series. Thanks again, guys, for joining us today. This was a lot of fun. I feel prepped and ready for the chase as a fan. I do. I feel ready to go. I'm excited. I'm ready for the races to get here and have a fantastic week in Darlington.

Yeah, I can't wait to call it. It's a fun time of year. You know, every year we feel, you said it, like the pressure. Like we talk about it, but you can see it out the window. You can watch it on restart. You see guys that have been just, you know, unflappable for 26 weeks, making mistakes that we just don't expect, whether that's pit crew or crew chief or driver.

And the only thing you can equate it to is, you know, kind of the pressure of the situation. I'm so looking forward to the moments that are going to come from this. Like, that's what I think the playoff part of it missed, because there would be things in the middle rounds that maybe felt big for that race, but ultimately didn't matter, right? And like, because it was the final four that mattered.

The moments that can come from a 10-week chase and the rivalries and seeing the build-up and the slow burn of the, of it being whittled down, like, I'm excited to, something's going to happen that we're going to be, oh, remember in 26th when this happened at this race, we're going to get that. Yeah. Like, I'm very, very excited about that.

Yeah, I think it's important to get off to a good start. We're going to an incredibly tough racetrack, easy place to get some suspension damage. And as I walked in here today, and it was 100 degrees outside, all I could think of is how hot it'll be in Darlington this weekend. That's hell. I don't miss that. I miss that zero at all. But, you know, and I also think that when you look back at over the years to chase, that first race, there's always a couple of guys that have issues. And it happens early in the race, and you're just like, we've.

spent all year preparing for this and it's like crumbled right in front of us on lap 20 of the race. Don't let that happen to you this weekend. Yeah, man, it's going to be awesome. Thank you, Jamie. Jeff and Steve, the fans, they're ready and prepped. All right, everybody, that was a great roundtable. I want to thank again, Steve and Jamie and Jeff for coming through. They didn't, you know, they got other things they're doing.

So I appreciate their time. And I really wanted to have that conversation around, you know, the check. and where we think everybody sits and what we might expect. We've celebrated the change in the format earlier in this year. We've watched this all play out. We've enjoyed an incredible season, very compelling season. I've been more entertained all year along by what NASCAR has presented and provided to the viewers. And I'm so excited to see these next 10 races and how this might play.

play out. So, man, I don't want to miss anything. But the way this is sort of shaped up and how this should play out, I'm going to want to tune in every Sunday or Saturday night or whatever and watch this all live and see it for myself. So, and I'm anxious for it to be good, compelling, and entertaining. And there'll be a celebrated champion at the end of the year that we'll all have felt was deserving of it. And so, you know, that's going to be pretty fun to see how that rolls. So thankful again for the conversation, it was a lot of fun. Back to our typical standard guest segments after this weekend.

But these roundtables are something that I enjoy. I like to get more people in the room and kind of pick people's brains and hear what other people think about. you know, especially what's going on in our industry. And so we've done a couple of those round tables this year. And I know it's a change away from what we've done traditionally with the Wednesday guest show. But I've enjoyed that. I kind of got to break it up every now and then.

But anyways, this episode was presented by Arby's new meat and three box. You get more meal for your money at Arby's. We have the meets. Thank you for tuning in. And we'll see you tomorrow and bless your heart. Check out Dirtymoe Media on Instagram, Facebook, X, and TikTok.