The Glenn Beck Program - Best of The Program | Guest: Stephen Moore | 4/1/20

Episode Date: April 1, 2020

Today’s coronavirus update: The U.S. leads the world in number of confirmed cases, U.S. oil is on the verge of collapse, and the car industry may need a bailout. As President Trump warns of a “painful” next two weeks, it’s anybody’s guess how many deaths we’ll see. But America is waking up and realizing that the number may be high. Economist Stephen Moore joins to discuss real unemployment solutions and recovering before it’s too late.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to aboard Via Rai. Embarked and profite. Embarked and celebrate. Rigolet. Publié. Savour. Admirate.

And profite. Viaray. The voice that we love that we am. Welcome to the podcast. Don't forget tonight at 9 o'clock Eastern is Glenn's big show.

It's a special on coronavirus and the media the way they're handling it. Are they helping things? You might know the answer to that. But it's important to get all the details. They are amazing. that's at 9 p.m. on Blaze TV. You can go to blazTV.com.

Use the promo code Glenn. We'll save you 30 bucks if you sign up now. It's the biggest discount they've ever done. So go do that as well. And immediately preceding Glenn's show is Stu Does America. As well, we'll be talking about all sorts of craziness that's going on with our spending around the coronavirus. That's tonight at 8 p.m. Eastern.

On the podcast today, we have Pat Gray, who is on talking about where this goes. what are the numbers that are actually important to focus on with coronavirus, which ones are the ones to ignore? We will get into that today. Glenn is on the Tiger King kick. If you are watching that, like pretty much apparently everybody in the world is right now. We actually get someone who works at the Tiger, I don't know, Tiger Factory, whatever they call it, where, who actually works there, calls in and in, defense of the

woman on the show. We'll get into that a little bit. And Stephen Moore, who, if you may know, he was going to be one of the feds, fed chief under Trump. You know, media basically threw him out of that role. But he is on giving his expert opinion on

what's coming up with the economy. We have two big in unemployment reports coming out this week. So he gets into that. That's all on today's podcast. You're listening to. Hello, America. Welcome to the program. Today, our coronavirus update, I'm going to try to keep it a short, as my uncle Leo used to say,

keep it a short. We'll do that here in just a second. And Stephen Moore is going to join us because I am really concerned about what does this mean in the future for the economy and how do we get out of the now and become futurists and start looking at new possibilities and new ways to capture the spirit of America as we go through this coronavirus update. and so much more in one minute. This is the Glymbeck program. So yesterday we had the founder and owner of My Pillow on the news or on the show,

and he's been in the news for going up in the Rose Garden. And while he was being thanked by the president for making 50,000 surgical masks a day, they've totally repackaged my pillow. and they've taken and stopped making pillows and everything else for a while, and they're just retooling one of their big factories just to make surgical masks, 50,000 every day now. And he did it because he wanted to help out. And the media just bashed him because he dared to mention God

and that we should use this time to go back to God and study our scriptures, et cetera, et cetera. He's a real American hero. And he makes great products when he is. isn't trying to save the country. I think he is extraordinarily brave. I don't know what happened to his business or what's going to happen to his business as he's just retooled all of this. And when half the country is told to hate him, he's got a different life in front of him.

If you need a pillow, if you need new sheets, would you do me a favor? Would you go to mypillow.com right now and support him and his mission? he's going to be on my podcast this Saturday. I spent about an hour and a half with him. And he's got a real mission that he's doing. And it's way beyond my pillow. My pillow, he felt back in the day that he was given this design, if you will, of a pillow. Because he was going to have to use that money to do good things.

And wait until you hear his plans. He's a remarkable man. that's on my special podcast this Saturday. If you're a subscriber to The Blaze, you'll get it tomorrow. Anyway, go to MyPillow.com, click on the new radio listener specials. By one pair of geese at dream sheets, they're tremendous. I have them on the bed. I've given up all other sheets.

They are tremendous. So soft, and the more you use sleep on them, the more you wash them, the softer they get. It's the promo code Beck can be used, and you'll get two for one, buy one, get another pair for free. It's 800 966, 3117. Get the great radio specials now using the promo code Beck at MyPillow.com. All right, I want to give you a quick update here as we get ready for Stephen Moore joining us. The Daily Stats, Total Confirm Deaths now worldwide, 43,271. That's up from 38,000 yesterday.

What's amazing is we're now talking about in America alone, a death count over 100,000, between 100 and 200,000 just in America. Total confirmed cases now we approach a million 872,000 up from 799. So almost about 80,000 new cases yesterday. We now have 188,000 confirmed cases and 4,000 deaths. That's up 20,000 in the case count and up almost 1,000 in deaths just in last. last 24 hour. We now lead the world in total confirmed cases with 78,000. That's more cases in Italy, although Italy leads the world in deaths with 12,428. 11% of the U.S. confirmed cases are requiring

hospitalization, roughly on par with Italy. We may have a lot of cases, but not per capita. We are 24th in total confirmed cases per 1 million people with 507 cases per 1 million. Spain has 2,185 cases, more than 4 times the amount per million. We are 28th in total confirmed dead per 1 million, with 12 dead per 1 million citizens. Italy has 206 dead per 1 million. Now here's the thing. that we want to transition into with Stephen Moore. The U.S. energy industry is on the verge of a massive collapse. For the first time in my lifetime, it could be said three weeks ago that the United States was free from all foreign energy.

We were energy independent for the first time in my lifetime. We have been trying to get that monkey off of our back forever. Well, under Trump, we finally accomplished it. Now the U.S. energy market is on the verge of massive collapse. Here's why. Russia and the Saudis have just been pumping oil like there is no tomorrow. They've been trying to collapse the United States energy independence. They need us to be hooked on their energy.

Well, they did that as soon as the airlines started to collapse all around the world. transportation is down 45%. So that's why you're seeing gas prices going so low. In fact, they're going so low. There's so much oil now. We are literally swimming in oil. The world is that they're thinking now that the price could even go into the negative range for a price of a barrel of oil.

So they'd pay you five bucks to take the oil because there's no place to store all of the oil. Rick Perry has recommended that U.S. refineries be restricted now from importing and refining any foreign petroleum products for at least 60 days as a means to help domestic energy producers in Texas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. I think this is something that as an emergency step, the president should do. If independent energy producers go out of business, we are handing the market back to Russia and Saudi Arabia. Rick Perry says it's 1974 all over again.

in our bailout nation, now the car industry needs a bailout. Year over year, automobile sales in the U.S. are off as much as 90%. Analysts say April is going to be worse. Dan Ferguson said, everything you need to know. He's the manager of a Ford dealership in Arizona. He said he may have to lay off his entire staff of 48 employees. He said, we hear there are supposed to be government loan programs for small businesses, but that money maybe weeks away.

I can't make payroll today. One other. It looks like in New York, 40% of renters are not going to be able to make rent this month, and it's expected to be worse next month. The problem with that is stick it to the landlord, right? Except the landlord's not getting any relief. How is the landlord, if he's not getting rent, going to be able to pay for all the water, garbage, electricity, everything that it takes to run one of these apartment buildings?

There is a meltdown coming. Stephen Moore is joining us now. Hello, Stephen. How are you? Well, hi, Glenn. I just listened to what you were saying, and it is just so catastrophic. I mean, it makes my heart drop to hear these stories about business after business going bankrupt. You know, it's just, it's heartbreaking.

And, you know, I can't tell you how many business men and women have called me in the last few days and said the same thing. I can't meet payroll, you know, revenues and customers are the oxygen supply of business. And, you know, I'm sorry. I think this, I haven't talked to you about it recently, Glenn, but I just don't think that this lockdown of our economy is the right thing to do. I think that it's suffering, human suffering, the trillions of dollars of loss, the millions of people who've spent, the heroes of our economy, the people have built up businesses from ground floor to, you know, put their whole life into it, to see it ruined in a matter of weeks.

You know, it's unspeakable. It's horrible. We've got to get our economy reopened. So, Stephen, I agree with you. I just don't see a way of doing that safely. And the problem is, you know, there might be 200,000 dead. but if we destroy the engine of the world, if we destroy this and we can't get back online

and start really jumping back in, how many millions will die because America is in wreckage? That's the question we should be asking, and these are tough questions. I apologize for being a little late for your show today. I was on the phone with some of the folks at the White House talking about this. And the president's got some really tough decisions to make, and this is, you know, his Truchilian moment. He has to guide us through this.

I think the idea, you know, I live in Virginia. Our governor insanely has said that he wants to keep the economy locked down until the middle of June. That to me is not going to be an economy. It's crazy. It's a lunatic. I mean, you do that. There's not going to be an economy left to rebuild in June when the things are reopened. So, you know, it's interesting.

I'm going to give you some rays of sunlight. here. I had a long conversation, Glenn, with one of my heroes, Fred Smith, the CEO of FedEx, one of America's great, great companies, one of our largest companies and biggest employers. And we spoke for about an hour, and he has, he's up and running. They're up and running not just in the United States, but throughout the world, as you know, they have 350,000 employees in the United States, 350,000. That's a lot. It's like a, you know, pretty medium-sized city. And I said, how many of those people, because they've been working for the last six, eight weeks. I said, how many have come out down sick? He said less than 400. So that's one in a

thousand. You know, that's one in a thousand. And what he's saying is they're using all the best practices, the medical practices. They're doing sterilizations and disinfectants and they're wearing masks and they're wearing gloves and they're doing social distancing in the workplace. And I'm here to tell you, Glenn, I think we can do this in a smart way that reduce the risks of death. We may have to tolerate some additional deaths and that's the kind of decision we make every day in every policy decision we make. But, you know, there's a rule of thumb. Every 10,000, every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, and that's a little thumb, but it's fairly, you know, accurate historically. Every one percentage point increase in an unemployment rate is associated with

10,000 additional deaths in the United States. Some economists are saying we're going to see a 25% unemployment rate in this country, and that's very conceivable if we continue to lock down our economy. So there, we've just caused 200,000 more deaths just from raising the unemployment rate. So we have to be very smart about this and calibrated in our decisions. And I just don't think that this idea of this tradeoff between our economy and our health is being discussed in a responsible manner. So, Stephen, the Fed came out with their prediction of 32 and a half percent unemployment by June 1st. That is, I mean, the height of the depression was, I think, 25 percent. We've never seen anything like that.

What should Americans expect or prepare for? Well, God, let's pray that that doesn't happen because, you know, then, you know, you're talking to go back to my rule of thumb, there's about 300,000 additional jobs just from the rise in the employment rate. And that also is revolution. That's revolution territory. Yeah. See, this is what worries me is I think you're going to get, you know, social chaos in that

situation when you have that many people unemployed you're going to it doesn't look glen let me let me start from the beginning here because no but none of the peniters in washington understand this they keep thinking oh we're just going to keep having one you know bail out bill after another one stimulus bill after another two trillion three trillion four trillion five trillion dollars and then the fed says we're just going to keep printing money and i'm here to tell you glenn it doesn't matter how much money the fed prints it doesn't matter how many these rescue plans how many trillions of dollars they put in the helicopters and dump over cities. If the American economy isn't producing, it collapses.

It doesn't matter how much money they're there. I mean, they're actually. We only need. This is the crazy thing, Stephen. I don't understand why they just didn't say moratorium on rent and mortgages and everything else for two months or whatever it is. Because what people need to know right now is I can pay my basic bills. pay for, you know, the rent and my company doesn't have to worry about their mortgage on their

building and those big items. I don't know why we're not covering that because we're not going out in spending. We're not doing it. And so all we need right now is just to not lose our place. That's what we need. Just don't lose our place. Don't let me lose my restaurant that I've worked my whole life to build because I can't afford the rent. And that's happening as we speak. And it's heartbreaking. It's happening in neighborhoods everywhere around the country and towns. And, you know, I...

Is there any talk in Washington about doing anything for that? Well, we just sent out, you know, $1,200 per adult and $500 per child. And we've got the, you know, the unemployment insurance that's paying people 100% what their paychecks are. So we're providing a lot of aid. But the problem isn't the aid. It's, we need our businesses to be functioning, you know. Open, yeah, you know.

Yeah, they need to be functioning. It need to be open. You mentioned that story about, you know, I was listening to what you're saying before I came to people not paying the rent. I just got up the phone with a woman who owns apartment buildings throughout the country. She is not rich. Yep. And he means that's how she makes money.

and she says basically starting two weeks ago, zero. Everybody stopped their rent because the government's saying, hey, you cannot pay your rent and you won't be evicted. And people are making this as well, I'm just not going to pay. Well, think about that means now she doesn't have any income, right? Because nobody's paying her rent. So she can't pay her bills. So she has the foreclose on the bank, the loan she has from the bank.

The bank now doesn't have any money. I mean, I worry just cascades in a really ugly way if we don't get up and running. It reorders everything. And the only ones, the only ones that might win are at the very, very top or at the, at the government level, nobody wins in this one. Nobody wins in this one. All right, Stephen, hang on just a second. Hang on just a second. We'll be back in just a second.

This is the best of the Glenn Beck program, and we really want to thank you for listening. Welcome to the program. We have Stephen Moore with us. He was just on the phone. with White House economic advisors trying to work his way through all of this. Stephen,

what are we expecting for the unemployment numbers tomorrow? You know, they're going to be high. They're going to be rotten. You know, it's amazing because I think Friday we come out with the new unemployment rate numbers. I think Thursday,

we get the new unemployment insurance claims. They're going to be rotten. Terrible. We're going to see, you know, with a million more people signing up for unemployment insurance. I mean, this is just a natural... So you don't think it will be bigger than the... You don't think it will be bigger than last week?

Yeah, I do think it will. I think we'll go from... Okay. We have, what, three million something last week, and I think we could be $5 million this week. Hard to tell. I mean, how fast people sign up for these benefits. But...

Right. You know, I mean, look, it's very simple, folks. Without businesses, you don't have jobs. I don't know why EOC and... Right. So forth, don't understand that. But, you know, they keep demonizing businesses in that aid. Oh, we can't help businesses.

I mean, I'm the biggest, I hate corporate welfare and I hate business handouts, but you've got to give some loans to these businesses so they don't go bankrupt so they can be up and running when we get through this. So when you look at the unemployment, new claims at $5 million maybe, what kind of number is that? We went from the lowest unemployment in 50 years, 3.5 or 6. What are we looking at when that new number comes out this Friday? You know, I almost feel like this is some bad nightmare that I'm going to wake up from

because it was just a month ago. It seems like 10 years ago that we had the best jobs report ever. We had 350,000 jobs in February with counting the revisions from the previous months. We had the lowest unemployment rate 50 years. We had rising wages. We had the Federal Reserve Bank, we're saying we're growing a three to four percent. You know, we're just booming, and now we hit this wall, and it's just, it depresses me. I'm sorry, I'm so depressed this morning, but I just, I feel so horrible for our country in terms of the, you know, misery that this is going to cause people.

And I just want to get it over with, I want to get us up and running again because, you know, people, it's horrible when, you know, I'm a, I know you run a business. I'm on the board of a business. We had about 30 employees. and we had to lay them all off this week. Glad that's just a heartbreaking thing to have to do, but we don't have any money. How can we pay people if we don't have any revenue? So, Stephen, is there a point to where if we could print enough masks,

you know, make enough masks, get everybody, you know, to wear them, wear gloves, you know, practice safely, is there a chance in the next four weeks that we could go back to work and we would see the engine just flame up because I think there'd be a lot of people that would be, you know, there's a lot of pent up spending and creativity and everything else. Yeah.

When does that flame kind of, do you worry, go out? And we're at a point of no return. Yeah. That is my worry where, you know, you get this cascading effect where, you know, once a business goes bankrupt and has to sell their assets,

but a good business doesn't exist anymore. can't resurrect itself. And so, you know, that's happening. So that's why to keep telling the White House every week that you, you know, that you keep the economy shut down. This is not like a fine-tune engine where you can just click the ignition. It starts up again. So it's a hard question to answer.

Look, I have nothing but respect for the resilience of the American people, the American workers, and especially our great entrepreneurs. We are going to get out of this. and hopefully, Glenn, you know, six months from now when you and I were talking, we're only talking about coronavirus. But these are tough times, and all I'm saying is every day that goes by with this shutdown, it gets harder to start it up again. So, Stephen, the frightening thing for me is, you know, FedEx is going to be fine.

Amazon is doing great. All of these big, huge businesses are doing fine. But anyone with brick and mortar, anyone, who is on a small level, are they going to, is there anything that is, you know, coming for real significant relief for like that,

even that woman who owns those apartment buildings, she's not rich, but I can guarantee you she's not going to be eligible for the $1,200 check. And who's helping her? Who's helping the people who are trying to make the, the basic payment on their building, on their equipment, and just can't do it until the engines turned on again, because they didn't turn it off.

The United States government told them to turn it off. Most people right now, and they're facing real, you know, hardship. And, you know, this woman I talked to said, well, she thinks she can get through the next few months, you know, but what if people don't start paying their rent? You know, it's one thing for if they don't play their merchant rent, maybe not their April month, rent, and maybe even not their may rent. But then you go past that.

There's no revenues. Again, this is the oxygen supply of any business. So, you know, I do think we can get this thing going again, and we got a great leader of Trump on the economy. We, one of the, I'll give you one example, one of the things I'm in favor of. I mentioned the payroll tax suspension for the rest of the year. How about this? Why don't we put a suspension, a blanket immunity from lawsuits for every business in America

for the next year so that when they put people, back to work because I've thought the employer saying I'm afraid to bring our, I want to bring my employees back to work, but I'm afraid of lawsuits if they get sick. So why don't we have a blanket immunity so that, you know, let's say you employ me, Glead, and I sign the back that says, I'm willing to go back and you say I'm willing to hire you, but there's no lawsuits and, you know, in case I do get sick. And that way you'll encourage, we want to get, and look, the American people want to get that to work. We're all going to start crazy. Right. Right. Right.

in infrastructure bill phase four of this Donald Trump is saying he's saying you know the interest rates are at zero so now is the time to borrow and so we're going to we're going to borrow two trillion dollars I think that number is kind of going to go up but that's a stunning stunning number to come out with to start the negotiations with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer is is that because the president is

being the future and knows that he needs to get ahead of this because the news is going to be shocking? I don't know his motivation. I find my, you know, I work for the Trump during the campaign. I've worked with him, you know, as an informal advisor, and he, I find when it comes to the economy, not always, but most of the time makes very wise decisions. You know, look, the problem with this infrastructure thing, and there's something to what Trump is saying is if the people are going to lend us money for free, now's not a bad time

for the government to be borrowing. Although we've been doing a lot of it already. But, you know, the problem with this issue of infrastructure is when you and I say infrastructure and the left says infrastructure, we're talking completely past each other. So what I want to see in this country, yeah, we should fix the roads. We should fix our highways. We should modernize our airports and our ports. And we need pipelines in this country so we can get all the oil and gas to the markets

that we need to so we could be exporting this stuff at a faster pace. That's not what the left is talking about. They want energy subsidies. They want public transit projects. They want, you know, things of that nature that don't really add much. Of course, the union wages for all of these, you know, jobs that require, you know, 30, 40 percent higher costs to the projects. So, you know, I worry that this becomes, you know, pardon the pun, but the railway train of spending,

that doesn't really accomplish much. Stephen. Are you in Texas? Are you in Texas? I am in Texas. So I'll give an example. So in Texas, you build, your cost of building a mile of road is about one-half the cost of what it is in California and New York. Think about that.

Right. You know, you know why? Because you're efficient. You don't have all these crazy, you know, union rules, rules, regulations, so on. So if we're built the infrastructure, let's do it the way Texas does and not the way New York does it. Correct. Correct. Let me ask you while we're on Texas.

the oil situation. Is it possible for the president to tell refineries, no more foreign oil for the next 60 days? Just to keep our energy independence, is there thought about that? I'm afraid these oil companies and the shale and everything else, they're just, they're not coming back. We're going to set ourselves back 50 years.

Topest question if you could ask me, I've been, this is keeping me up at nights too, about what do we do? And some of my best friends in the world, My friend Harold Hammond in Oklahoma City, who really was the kind of inventor of the old fracking process and the horizontal drilling and, you know, the Bakken Shale there that became one of the biggest oil fields in the world. And they're just shutting east side of it. We're shutting just about everything down. And you're there in Texas. You're seeing it. And, you know, the price is as low as it's been in 40 years. And we may see an oil price go below $15 a barrel, which would be, you know, then you're talking.

talking about every, virtually every well in America closing down. First of all, if we're going to do something like that to keep out the foreign oil, then what we ought to do is that just basically have a $25 barrel import fee, right? And we could use that money to pay for the infrastructure. So, you know, if the Saudis and the Russians want to keep cutting the price to cut off, you know, to cut off the knees of our producers, let's put, let's slap them with a huge import fee. and why not use that money to help people here? And by the way, that would be surprised for our domestic producers.

Right. I would just hate to see us lose our energy independence. That, to me, that was a huge accomplishment. And not even foreseeable when we were talking, you know, under Barack Obama. They had done everything they could to destroy it. And I'd like to see that continue. I'm with you. I'm with you.

I mean, this was one of the great advances of our decades was the fact that we were the number one oil gas producer in the world. So we've got to keep it up and running. Thank you so much, Stephen. We'll talk again. This is the best of the Glenn Beck program. Like listening to this podcast, if you're not a subscriber, become one now on iTunes. And while you're there, do us a favor and rate the show. This is the Glenn Beck program. Hey, tonight at nine, our response to the coronavirus has crippled our.

economy and it could get much worse because of the some of the bad players there that are profiting off of America's demise if you will stakes are way too high we need to get back into the fight as soon as we can and turn the American engine on when that is possible I don't know but you need to know what's coming beyond the coronavirus tonight we look at That and the effects of the mainstream media and how the mainstream media is, in my opinion, more dangerous than the coronavirus. Tonight, 9 p.m., America's most dangerous virus, the media. You can see it at blazTV.com slash Glenn, Blaze TV, YouTube, on demand only. And by the way, you have to be there from the beginning.

It starts at 9 p.m. if you're watching it on, you know, our YouTube. We as soon as the feed is over, it's deleted. It's not, it's not saved. So you have to watch it from the beginning. And when 10 o'clock comes, it's off unless you're watching it on Blaze TV. And you'll be able to get the archive there and everything else. Tell your friends. And if you don't have Blaze TV, you can watch it, but you have to watch it at that time.

Blaze TV YouTube or Pluto TV. It begins at 9 p.m. Of course, if you're a Blaze TV subscriber, thank you. If you're not, please subscribe. We're giving the biggest discount we've ever given, $30 off on subscriptions. And we are determined to remain standing. And I don't know if you've seen some of the things that have been out in the news lately, but what is coming economically is ugly, ugly.

We're asking you to get your year's subscription so you don't have to worry about it. We'll give you $30 off that year subscription. So it works out to be about $5 and some change every single month. But do it now so you don't lose track during these critical, critical times. Please sign up now. All right, Stu. Let's look at, let's start with what do the numbers show us where people think, think how many people are going to be dead,

what people think this is actually going to look like. And then let's compare them to what the experts are predicting. Yeah, I love to get. So I'm looking for the average person. Yeah, I love to get your thoughts on this, Pat, too, because it's, Pat Gray joins us from Pat Gray Unleashed. You know, it's one of these things where this has moved really fast, right? Like, you look at, this is March 11th.

Okay, that's in March. three weeks ago. So they asked, if you had to guess, how many people do you think will die in the United States because of coronavirus over the next year? Okay. 18% of people said less than 100 people. This is...

Less than 100? Less than 100. Oh, wow. Okay, this is as of March 11th. Three weeks ago? Yeah, three weeks ago. More than 100, but less than 1,000, okay, was 37%.

So half of the people in the United States believed less than a thousand deaths, I'll remind you, we're at 4,000 now. Okay. So they've already, we've obviously exceeded that by quite a bit in the three weeks. More than 1,000, but less than 10,000. Okay. That was another 32%. So you're at 87% of people who believed it was going to be less than 10,000.

There's almost no chance it's going to be less than 10,000. We should hit 10,000 next week with this, the way it's going right now. Oh, I bet we hit it earlier than that, do you think? maybe I would think we're doubling yeah we did almost a thousand deaths yesterday almost a thousand deaths yesterday yesterday yesterday was the second highest total of any countries during the entire coronavirus scare with the except I mean you can't count China which is obviously lying about their numbers I would expect they probably had bigger days in this but there was one day in Italy that was higher than our yesterday so I mean like it is

you know it is we're not even at the peak yet we're not even at the peak no as Trump talked about yesterday that they believe the peak's going to be in a couple weeks, where it could be multiple thousands per day. So only 12% of the people, only 12% believed it would be over 10,000 dead in the next year. They redid the exact same poll in March 26. And it's revealing that the poll on March 11th, the highest answer you could give was over 10,000. So they didn't even have a category above that. They had to add that when they asked the poll again. So they asked again, which this is just at some point, numerous. Less than 100. Five percent still thought it would be less than 100. Now at this point, we were well past. Even though it was way beyond that.

It passed 100 already. Another 19 percent thought it would be less than a thousand. And again, I think we're beyond that. A thousand as well on March 26. Forty-six percent still believed it would stay below 10,000. Again, I don't think that's going to happen. And 31 percent said it would be more than 10,000 dead in the next year. So they broke out that category and said, okay, if you believe it's more, if you're in that 31%, you believe it's more than 10,000, what do you think it will be? Will it be more than, or less than 100,000? A third of people believe that.

So about 10% of the total populace. About 15% of the total populace believed between 100,000 and a million, and the rest was more than a million. So again, I, you know, I don't think it's going to get that high, but still, that is, you realize how fast this comes. We were at a point where half the country was like, oh, less than a thousand deaths. three weeks ago, and now we're at 4,000. And a lot of times I think this moves just at the pace where it doesn't seem shocking

to you on a day-to-day basis, but when you look at it over a multiple week basis, you're like, holy crap, this is moving quickly. So that is, it is scary. So what are the real, because first of all, I think we're going to hit between 100,000 and a million. I think a million is a long shot, but I think we're, we hit between 100,000 and a million. Yeah, a million would be. What a year.

No model predicts a million unless we do nothing. Yeah. Like they all, you know, there are a lot of models that will say that if we basically just kind of go free for all and and no good news comes. There's no treatment that pops up or anything like that. Pat, what's your number? I mean, I... Less than 100? $100,000?

Or 100 people? No, 100,000. I think around 100,000. Okay. That's a, yeah, that's still a lot. That's a lot. That's a lot. That's a lot.

That's a lot. Now, Fauci says between 100 and 240,000. Yeah. And that's based on the Imperial College model, which is the one that also predicted up to 2.2 million if we did nothing. Yeah. So what is the Seattle model? What is the one that's coming out of Washington State? Yeah.

University of Washington has one that I think has been more reserved and also updates every day, unlike the Imperial College model, which they did. This one I think is interesting. They predict the total death count to be. 93,765. Now it's interesting because they updated every day with new information. Yesterday they were predicting 83,000. So in one day, they've upped it by 10,000,

which I would say is not a good sign. Now, that's their best guess. The high end and low end is about 40,000 to about 175, I would say, is their estimate. And that's an interesting one because they really do go, and give, they give state by state estimates as to when they think the peak of each state will hit. We can, I'll tweet this out at Stu Does America if you want to kind of go through it and nerd out on the data as well. But at least kind of gives us a sense.

And this is why you see Trump, you know, I mean, dead serious yesterday talking about, hey, the next couple weeks are going to be awful. Prepare yourself for it mentally. And of course, obviously, physically by not, you know. So when is the peak? our governor yesterday here in Texas came out and said schools are not going to return until May. We're closing everything down until May. And what is it, May 15th? Do you guys know?

I mean, when is it supposed to hit and peak in Texas? Because it's not really, I mean, it's here. A couple of people in my town. We have a small town of about 900 people. There's two people that I heard of just last weekend, so there's got to be more now, but two in my town that have it. When is it supposed to peak here? In early May, according to the models, according to this University of Washington model, May 7th would be a Texas peak. It's interesting to note that Washington seems to be on the decline already.

They went through a really bad time, and it looked like they were going to be the state that was out of control, but New York took that from them, and so did New Jersey. But their numbers are actually starting to decline now. So that's a good sign. Yeah, it is. How's California? California? You're saying what peak date for California?

Yeah, what peak? And I'd like to know Chicago, too. I mean, we haven't heard much about Chicago. Yeah, well, first of all, Chicago, actually not a state. It's a city. I mean, well, in the United States. Illinois, sorry. I know, I know.

April 29th for California. that would be, or actually, it looks like May 2nd maybe is the California peak. Again, these are all approximations. They change every day. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Give you an idea. Illinois is a little earlier than that, April 20th. So, but you could see like there's massive still bars of error here.

And as Dr. Fauci talked about yesterday, Trump has echoed this as well. We hope to do a lot better than this, right? But this is with all of the social distancing stuff that we're doing. This does not include if we all. kind of give up on it. If we give up on it, all their numbers get uglier, whether you believe that or not.

Well, if we give up on it now, I mean, we've already done the damage, man. Let's not, let's not pull out of this thing too early. You know what I mean? Let's,

let's, I think that there's a chance that we come roaring back with all the pent up everything. There's a chance that we just come roaring back because we'll want to go out and do things. We'll want to go out and shop and spend money and go to restaurants. So, you know, as soon as this thing comes back, if there is a clear kind of cut ending to it, it will really help the economy.

And there are some positive things that are the, for instance, there's a new study by the medical journal, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, which I usually wait for the swimsuit edition, but I got this a little bit early. Yeah, yeah. Really? Okay. The Lancet infectious diseases, swimsuit edition is unreal. Unbelievable. We've got to see it. Too hot.

When they did the swimsuit edition on leprosy. Right? Remember that? Gosh, it was good. Leopard prison. It was on fire. But they've done a study and they found this, the mortality rates have been overstated,

is what they're saying. They said that the mortality rate right now looks like it's going to wind up to be about 0.66%. Yeah. Which is really promising. Oh, wait, wait. Did you hear CNN talk about this? I don't know. CNN reported on this.

And CNN, they did all kinds of stuff about how the mortality rate is too high, and it's going to come in way under 1%, blah, blah, blah. See, I was the only one that was screaming going, wait a minute. You guys were just saying that the president, how dare the president say that, when he came out and said it will be under 1%. I did a whole show on that stupid because they were all bashing him at the same time as when the World Health Organization announced it was 3.4% worldwide. But every expert was aligned saying it was not going to be 3.4%.

At the most, about 1% is where they thought it would wind up. So 0.66 is great. I think there's a good chance that gets even lower than that when it comes to the end of this. I think there's a chance that even that's high. I got to give you this last story too. I mean, you just want to talk about the press. And, I mean, watch tonight's show. It's just agonizing.

Try this one on. Here's the New York Times. This is from Monday. New York Times headline, more Americans probably should wear masks for protection. They were just telling us, we told you, no, why would they be saying they need them for the hospital if they do no good? Of course you should be wearing a mask. they're trying to make sure that they have enough for the hospitals.

Instead of saying that, they just kept saying they're no good. People won't. It won't. It's not effective at all. Now they're coming out and telling you, you know what, maybe you should wear masks. Of course, we all should have been wearing masks. That's unbelievable that that isn't, that's disgraceful though. Look, you can say, I think the American people would say, look, we're not going to hoard masks. You know, like we of course want the health workers to have them first.

But, I mean, to tell us that they're not effective and then say that they are just a little bit later on is disgraceful. You can't do that. Well, to say they're not effective at the same time you're saying, we need them for the hospitals. Hello? Gosh, they just think we're just idiots.