The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 01/16/21 - Saturday Special

Episode Date: January 16, 2021

No Blazing 5 this week but Colin goes over all four NFL playoff games and RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio tells him which side the sharps in Vegas are on and if Colin's instincts on the ga...mes are correct in this exclusive podcast. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Starting point is 00:00:52 Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor it? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to.
Starting point is 00:01:29 Listen and learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 is big to me. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a hear, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors.
Starting point is 00:01:51 Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to our Saturday podcast. No blazing five this week because there's only four games. And to be honest, I only loved one.
Starting point is 00:02:19 But I thought, hey, let's talk about them from a gambling perspective with R.J. Bell. pregame.com, straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio. His Twitter account, go follow him at RJ in Vegas. All right, RJ is ready to go. So Rams at Packers is the only game I would have bet. It starts at 7. It's down to 6.5. I would take Green Bay at 6.5.
Starting point is 00:02:42 And I think there's this misconception that it's Aaron Rogers carrying an average unit. And that the Rams are actually a lot of star players. and Jared Goff can just hand it off. But the truth of the matter is Green Bay had seven pro bowlers and the Rams had two. And I look at Green Bay as a team that should be favored, had one really bad Sunday all year. And I think it's a more talented roster top to bottom. I think the Rams may have more young, promising players. But if you look at Green Bay, they have a pro bowler at quarterback, running back, wide receiver,
Starting point is 00:03:18 corner, linebacker, two on the office. offensive line, and Kenny Clark's not a pro bowler, but he's close on the defensive line. So I like Green Bay to win this game comfortably. How would the sharps, RJ, see it? Well, I got to tell you, this is a red poison on the medicine cabinet game for me, because I agree with you. So start there. I feel like in this line early, early, was seven and a half. Yeah. So it got bet down, seven and a half, seven, six and a half. Remember, seven is the second most key number in the NFL, it's the second most common outcome, seven points. So it's such a key number. But the sharps, the biggest betters, are all over the Rams. And I'm not sure I
Starting point is 00:04:05 understand why. And like right now, and this is what we call sharp versus squares in that if you look at the bet splits, it's about, oh, 70% or more of the bets cash wise are on Green Bay. A much more popular team, yeah. But the line keeps dropping. And what we call this is booking faces, which is the people who are betting the Rams are so respected, even though the most of the money is on Green Bay, they're making the line go down. I can, I mean, I'll just continue with my argument, you know, continuing yours for Green Bay. I mean, Jared Goff in the cold, four times he's been able to play, or he's played when it's been 45 degrees or less. Oh, and four against. to spread. And we all remember that famous Chicago game that he was just horrible. And that was the
Starting point is 00:04:56 only game below 30. And in those four games, the Rams have scored 10 less points per game than expected. You add in the sore thumb, you got to figure a bad hand hurts you in the cold. You know, I don't fully understand it. But I tell you, when it's this kind of betting, you've got to be careful because it's serious money back in the Rams. Okay, that's interesting. Again, we learn something. All right, I would take the bills minus two and a half, although my guess is there's a lot of Ravens money,
Starting point is 00:05:29 and there's concerns that the bills are a bad matchup. They don't match up with Baltimore. But here's what I would say. When I watch the Colts game, I think the Colts offensive line is so good that it gives us a false sense of what the bill's defensive front is. We think it's weak because the bills don't match up.
Starting point is 00:05:50 are probably a defensive lineman away from being a very good defensive line. Ed Oliver is a very good young player. But the Colts make the bill's defense, especially up front, look very below average. And I don't think they are. I don't think Baltimore will dominate that line of scrimmage like the Colts did against the bills. So I think Buffalo wins here by about a touchdown. And I do think Lamar Jackson tends to play better with the lead, though he proved last week he can play from behind,
Starting point is 00:06:23 I think they feel a little different when they trail. So where I feel with Josh Allen, I get a quarterback who the scores irrelevant. He's got a Mahomes field to him. I would take Buffalo Hill here. My guess is you're going to be on the Ravens and the Sharps are on the Ravens. No, actually, this surprised me too is sharp action is on Buffalo here for sure. Let me ask you, Colin. It sounds like you think that the Colts game would lead to.
Starting point is 00:06:50 do a downgrade on Buffalo. Now, obviously, they didn't cover the game. Yeah, I think the Colts are about as good as a seven seed will ever be, and I think they're dominating offensive line. It skews our perspective of Buffalo's defense. We now think it's just weak. They couldn't keep them out of their side of the field. And I just think it's a, I think the Colts did this two or three times to teams this year. They make them look overwhelmed up front. Yeah, so I've been, let's talk about the Bill's defense for a second. You know, I've been doing this 20 plus year. so in a way it doesn't feel like it to me, but there's been evolutions throughout that time. In the last few years, this evolution about what efficiency means on offense.
Starting point is 00:07:31 So if you run the ball for five yards a clip, that sounds good to me, right? Because you're going to get a first down in theory every two plays. The bills are comfortable letting teams run the ball. They're playing their nickel saying, go ahead and run. Even if you get five yards a clip, that's going to be less efficient than what we can do on offense. So in a way, the Colts look like they were effective on offense, I think that's what what everyone that I respect says is that's what the bills wanted the Colts to do because they figure they're going to look fine, but we're going to look even better. So in a weird way,
Starting point is 00:08:07 it looked like the Colts played a good game and it felt kind of close, I guess, but it's supposedly what the bills wanted because Josh Allen will do better than five yards a clip. Now, listen, you talk to CoSell, some of the real elite minds in football, what's been the discussion about that Bill's D? Because the season started, the sense was, oh, they're down. It seems to me there's a lot of respect for that Bill's D because they approach the game differently in a more modern way. I also think they're very good situationally. It's got a New England feel where it bends a lot, but you get inside the red zone and Buffalo's defense is pretty hardy. Yeah, and I think that's part of it too because if you require the opposition to be perfect all the way down the field
Starting point is 00:08:53 instead of give up big plays, the theory is they're going to have one holding call or make a mistake at some point. Now, if you look at Baltimore, this is a team I think you have to have two power ratings on. One against good teams, one against bad teams, because against bad teams, Baltimore is a bully. They do so well getting margin covering the spread. And their offense looked really good. So let's look at the run since the Steelers game and the COVID outbreak. They played Cincinnati. They played the Jags, the Cowboys, the Browns. Now, the Browns are a decent team, but their defense is really bad. The only decent defense they played were the Giants, and they got 27. So, okay, that's fine. That's probably better than fine. But then against Tennessee,
Starting point is 00:09:37 it feels like that was a redemption game. But when you only score 20 points against a really bad defense. What's your take right now on the Baltimore offense? It feels like everyone thinks they're back. I question it because of the level of competition. Well, I think what they are is unique, and they're kind of anigmatic. It's hard to prepare for them. So I always think, unless you face a veteran finely tuned defense, and that's Tennessee's defense isn't very good, I think Baltimore's going to give a lot of people problems as long as Lamar Jackson is in his physical prime. because I don't think you can duplicate them at practice. I think they're very explosive.
Starting point is 00:10:19 But I do think the offense for the Ravens does have outside the hash mark limitations. I don't think it's a very good receiving core, and Lamar's not great throwing the ball up the field outside the hash mark. So limited, but if you're flawed or if you're young, Baltimore can completely overwhelm you. And Buffalo played him pretty well last year when Josh Allen wasn't playing as well himself. but I'm talking about the defense against the Baltimore offense. Two last things about the bills. I would make the following case, and this is going to sound like a hot take,
Starting point is 00:10:50 but hey, cold cash over hot takes. We don't do that. I don't think the bills lost a single game this year that they didn't have a good reason to lose. So obviously the Hell Murray set that aside. Remember that game when they played against Tennessee? It was Monday morning, and they didn't know if they were going to play Tennessee on Tuesday,
Starting point is 00:11:12 or Kansas City on Thursday. So they literally had to go down to Tennessee on 36 hours notice and play that game. They didn't play well. They lost. Then they had to play Kansas or Kansas City the next Monday then, and it was just total disruption. I'm not saying you discount the losses totally. I'm saying I think there was a reason for every loss, which is kind of stunning, to think a team that is about even if you think about it against Baltimore with a line
Starting point is 00:11:38 two and a half or so. It's saying neither even teams. I think that obviously Buffalo is the better team. One last thought, Zach Morris running back is out for Buffalo. I think it leads to more four wide receiver sets. There hasn't been a time many times this year that all receivers have been healthy for Buffalo. They are now. I expect a more wide open Bill's game offensively.
Starting point is 00:12:02 Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:12:31 A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me. Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from. from basketball to college football or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.
Starting point is 00:12:53 This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 00:13:28 And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English.
Starting point is 00:13:50 Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.
Starting point is 00:14:13 We also have AIDS on the table right now. Then you're finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:14:34 Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase
Starting point is 00:14:55 that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it, and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid?
Starting point is 00:15:14 Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Keir Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose. On my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, our heart radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now.
Starting point is 00:15:35 All right, Brown's Chiefs has red flag all over it for me. We've seen a lot of these 9, 8, 9, 10-point favorites lose in the divisional round. Steelers against Jacksonville, New England against Mark Sanchez. Peyton Manning lost 13-3 Broncos. We're a 9-point favorite at home, lost to Flacco, the 15-1 Packers. Nine-point favorites lost at home to the Giants. So this is just too many points. I'm not giving Cleveland 9.5 or 10 points.
Starting point is 00:16:03 I just can't do it. And I also wonder, Kansas City has not really beaten up on a team since the Jets, middle of the season. I do get Andy Reid's good off a buy. But this is a stayaway game for me. I don't understand the line. I don't understand how Cleveland can get nine and a half, 10 points. So I wouldn't bet it. What would the wise guys say? You know, I heard your show this week. And let me give you a little caveat to put in the arsenal. When you don't understand the line, I think your instincts to say, I'm going to be cautious are exactly correct, right? So if anything, sometimes you'll say, I'm going to go with the line that doesn't make.
Starting point is 00:16:39 sense because they must be a reason. But here's the caveat. If there is a reason, and usually that's going to be public bias, then go with it, meaning go and take the value. Because I'll explain the Kansas City line simply. There's a lot of people betting this week that don't bet typically, and they just think Kansas City is 15 and 1, they're the Super Bowl champions. They're not thinking about margin against Carolina.
Starting point is 00:17:04 They're not. So there's a reason there's a bias here, and it's because there's a love of the Super Bowl. champion that only lost one game. Because if you were a casual fan, like you're a casual UFC fan, you don't know how, or maybe you do, but I don't think how McGregor did in this second round, you just know what the guy's record is, right? And is he a big brand? Well, that's kind of what Kansas City is to the casual football fan. The champion that was 15 and 1, right? Does that kind of make sense? Yeah, no, it's, it's an easy bet for a square, for a casual better. Exactly. And Thus, if that's what's driving the line, then I think the Cleveland value is valid.
Starting point is 00:17:39 I like the Browns, especially at 10 this week. You mentioned the Jets. This is interesting. There's been eight games since that Kansas City Jets game. 07 and 1 against the spread. It's been half a season since Kansas City has covered a single game. 07 and 1. Now, you talked about Andy Redolph-A-bye.
Starting point is 00:17:57 Excellent, no doubt. 20 and 11 against a spread. That counts regular season and post-season, 6-2 in the post-season. I actually like, if you do like the Browns, Browns in the first quarter. Because I think that there's a chance Kansas City is a little rusty because not only did they have the buy, but they had the extra week where they didn't play their players. And we also know this. Kansas City tends to start slow in last year's playoff games.
Starting point is 00:18:23 So I think Browns in the first quarter also lets them run the ball because what I'm afraid of, if Baker gets behind it has to throw every down. Then you're in trouble. There's a recipe for Cleveland here. I don't think there's a recipe for Kansas City. And so that's the big advantage. That's why they're favored. I would say this.
Starting point is 00:18:40 Brown's led 10 times at halftime and went 10 and 0 in those games. And to your point, Kansas City last year, off a buy, fell behind 24-0. Yeah. So Cleveland's not losing a 24-0 lead if they get there. It seems like, and that would be something I'd say to end my point on this game, is that in the last year or two, the evolution of sports betting, with legalization, all that, is these books are being very competitive bets, things like first quarters, first has.
Starting point is 00:19:11 And you can really isolate why you like a game. And to me, if I think about why I like the Browns, I'm thinking, I like them if they're not really behind. I like them because I think Kansas City might be a little apathetic, even though it's a playoffs, they tend to be, why not do the first quarter? I like that better. And if you're not betting tens of thousands of dollars a game, which hardly anyone is, betting derivatives don't have any disadvantage.
Starting point is 00:19:35 There's less liquidity, but if you're betting 500 bucks or less, liquidity doesn't matter. So I would look at the first quarter if you like the Browns. Pregame.com, RJ Bell, more after this. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,
Starting point is 00:20:00 embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full. full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.
Starting point is 00:20:17 A win is a win. I don't care where you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever
Starting point is 00:20:32 ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcast,
Starting point is 00:21:11 or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jay. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but yeah, yeah, literally.
Starting point is 00:21:52 But just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.
Starting point is 00:22:12 Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many. incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth or are you a good person because you're
Starting point is 00:22:57 afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way.
Starting point is 00:23:14 Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the hard way and listen now. All right, finally, RJ Bell, at RJ and Vegas, straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio. No blazing five this week. We've tried to just give you perspective on the games. So, before I talk,
Starting point is 00:23:31 bucks at Saints, Saints minus three. New England, Bill Belichick this year, went seven and nine. Now think about that. The bills were excellent in the division, Miami much better. He went seven and nine with one pro bowler, one that wasn't a special teamer. Stefan Gilmore, got hurt late. That tells you the kind of coach Belichick is. And I don't think Tom Brady so far this year has missed Bill Belichick. They have a lot of weapons. Carolina's rebuilding. Atlanta's rebuilding in division. They got very easy scheduling end of the year, and they're hot. This is the game I think Brady needs Belichick because I think the Saints minus three is my pick. They have a better roster. They have a better coach. They have a better defense.
Starting point is 00:24:20 and I just think this is the kind of game. Belichick never get swept in a season. I think Tampa is going to go 0 and 3 against the Saints, and this is the kind of game where you need an elite coach to win when you're really bailing water on the roster, and I don't think they have it in Bruce Ariens, so I'm going to take the Saints minus three. So you're saying you think this is the first time this season.
Starting point is 00:24:45 That Tom really could use Belichick, and you'll notice it. You'll feel like Peyton is. out maneuvering Aryans. I think you're right there. But I would make the case where he needed Belichick would be the fact that he's a wild car team, right? And that he has to go road road here against Green Bay potentially. And the amazing stat, I'm sure you heard it, was Brady in all those years in the playoffs
Starting point is 00:25:08 had never been a wild car team, right? So to me, I look at Sean Payton as almost, I think offensively, better than Belichick. And again, I love Belichick. Peyton, who else has done a backup quarterback? Think about this. You always talk about, oh, Belichick, when he was with the Browns, what was his record, he didn't have a quarterback. And I think there was a valid point.
Starting point is 00:25:33 How does Peyton do so well with backup quarterbacks? I mean, it's like he's the best offensive coach in football with Andy Reed being right there. I also think this, Bruce Ariens isn't. Bruce Ariens got fired by the Steelers effectively. as an offensive coordinator. And I'm not saying Pittsburgh never makes a mistake, but it just feels like to me that Bruce Ariens knows how to work the media. And you know more media guys than I do,
Starting point is 00:26:01 but I hear from people that used, you know, through the years, that he's like always available when he wasn't, you know, for the radio hits and all that. I think he gets a lot of love that isn't warranted. I mean, where would you put Bruce Ariens 1 to 32 as a head coach in the NFL? Below 15. All right. So, I mean, I think that says.
Starting point is 00:26:20 a ton, no doubt. Now, here's the other question in this game. The old cliche about it's hard to beat a team three times, history says that's BS. So forget that. But do you believe that the matchup the Saints have shown to be so superior in the two games earlier is something that makes you like the Saints in this game? Well, I think they have the best roster in the league. And I think they don't have to take big risks defensively to keep players in front of them. I think they have elite corners, a significant pass rush, active linebackers. So where I'm I think the Bucks defense, it's a little bit of a shell game. They've got to take big risks to cover up a young secondary. The Saints can go man on man, play more straight up, and I think they have better personnel. So Brady's very good against the Blitz. The Saints don't have to blitz. They just have to win one-on-one matchups against very good Saint defenders, and I don't think they will. I think it's a good point. I personally lean to the Saints, one stat and then one thing about the wise guys. Here's the stat. There's only been three games.
Starting point is 00:27:20 this year that Drew Brees, Camara, and Michael Thomas have all played. That was the first Tampa Bay game, the second Tampa Bay game, and last week. So they look pretty good in those games. And finally, and this is kind of confusing to me, is the wise guys, wait, that could be a wise guy. Nope. The wise guys are on Tampa, though. But remember, at the earlier numbers, they played them at four, they played them at three and a half. So remember, this week more than any other, Colin, key numbers are around every game. There's three, there's seven, there's ten. Those are the most three key numbers. So for the listeners, if you're betting, you can't lay three and a half when the market's three.
Starting point is 00:28:03 You can't lay ten and a half when the market's ten. Get the best number. If you want to win long term around the key numbers, you can't take bad numbers. It's interesting because bucks at four, I'd probably take Tampa. To me, this is the classic. I think Tampa will keep it close. But at three, I think the Saints are the clear side. But this just goes to show.
Starting point is 00:28:22 Like, for instance, we've talked about this, perhaps last week. It didn't matter. But, you know, the Steelers Browns game, I love the Steelers at four, four and a half as it started to balloon up to six, six and a half, even though I like Pittsburgh, it just didn't feel the same. And I think one of the things we try to do on this podcast is tell people, shop for the better numbers. Now, I always think Sunday night, Monday morning, there's always one line that I, not that Vegas makes a mistake, but I think it's an opportunity.
Starting point is 00:28:52 But as you've said, later in the week, lines over adjust. And so I actually think right now, Green Bay only minus six and a half, not seven to seven and a half. I think the line got better as the week progressed. But remember, if the line gets better, it means you're going against the sharp money. It doesn't mean you're wrong, but if you bet, because the fact it went from seven and a half to seven to six and a half, the Green Bay game is a sign the Sharps playing the Rams. Now, you could make the case. Well, the last time the wise guys played, the Rams was plus seven. I'm only laying six and a half, but that isn't enough.
Starting point is 00:29:29 You can't both be right in that case. I will say this. As the week progresses, you're playing more against the market and less against the odds makers. And as much as people glorify the odds makers, I'd much rather play against the odds makers than, then play against the smartest people in the world, which is effectively the collective IQ, the wisdom of crowds, which the ultimate line is as you get towards game day. One last thing on that Packers game, I actually, if you do like the Pack call, and I would look first half because Green Bay has the best first half differential of any team and the Rams
Starting point is 00:30:02 have the best defense in the second half. Their adjustments have been outstanding. If you do like Pack, I think first half is more attractive. Please follow him on Twitter at RJ in Vegas. He's on Fox Sports Radio every day for an hour, straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio. RJ Bell. Thanks, RJ. Thank you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.
Starting point is 00:30:27 Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel helped an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
Starting point is 00:30:51 or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.
Starting point is 00:31:14 I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to, listen to learn the hard way on
Starting point is 00:31:50 the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

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