The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - 3 for the $$$ Week 6 NFL Picks (Plus Exclusive Bonus Pick)

Episode Date: October 17, 2021

John runs his picks for the his top 3 Week 6 NFL games by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement on his picks, plus a podcast exclusive bonus pick!Make sure you follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast.

From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s.

84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. If you love to be remembered as the person who gives the best birthday gifts, I'm here to tell you that 1-800 Flowers.com is your ultimate birthday gifting destination.

1-800 Flowers has thoughtful and artfully created options that are guaranteed to deliver the best birthday surprise. Shop thousands of unique gifts at 1800flowers.com for exclusive offers and great values. To order today, visit 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. The volume. Okay, back again with a man who was scolding hot and got derailed a little bit by some bad luck in a Cincinnati Green Bay game. But he's 9, 5, and 1 on the season.

A little three for the money. He's known as Stucky. He's a sharp in my eyes. And he's also, you can find him on Thursday, the Action Network podcast, talking gambling every morning on Thursday mornings. The podcast comes out. Stucky, what's, what's happy? Kentucky Wildcats, a big win.

I mean, they're right and high. Yeah, we might be coming back down to Earth this Saturday, but it's nice while it lasts. And you never know. You have, you have at least hope. It's still a football game played with an oblong ball. So Kentucky's going to need a lot of bounces on Saturday in Athens. But all you can ask for is a shot.

So, yeah, it's exciting here. You beat Florida and LSU back-to-back weeks. You're cooking with house money, right? Yeah, yeah. It's all house money now. Okay. Let's dive into the National Football League. And let's start with pretty sure they're the only undefeated team in the league

in the Arizona Cardinals going to Cleveland. who just had a devastating loss at, I almost said the Charger, or at the San Diego, but in L.A. Arizona, I like the Cardinals. You're getting three points on the road at Cleveland. How about you? No, I'm going with the Browns here. I got some two and a half early in the week.

I still like it at three, up to three. There's, look, this week we're going to talk about two more, fading three teams on the road that I think are just getting too much love in the market. I mean, if you look at this Cardinals, team, you know, week one, I talked about the Titans. I thought that they were going through some things offensively. A lot of changes. I loved Arizona in that game.

I didn't really take too much away from it. Then they go to Jacksonville. They're down nine late in the third quarter. They beat Minnesota because Minnesota misses a chip shot field goal. Super impressive win against the Rams. All the credits Arizona. That's just one game. Last week, they get outplayed at home by a underman San Fran team playing a rookie

quarterback making his first start. And they were the better team statistically in almost every measure. So I don't, this Arizona team's kind of, they're good, but it's Fool's goal at 5 and 0. The team that really could have, I think, would have a better shot or better argument of 5 and O is the Browns. I mean, there are only two losses are on the road to the chiefs and chargers.

The chiefs, they were up double digits in the second half. They botched that punt. Charters are up double digits in the second half. And the charters go like six of six on fourth down. They have that bad PI call. So the, the Browns are. have been super impressive here. And I just think this is a really good matchup for Cleveland against a really suspect Arizona run defense that has just been struggling to defend the run once again this year.

And when you look at some of the other factors, take a look at the Cleveland Weather Report. Looks like 20 to 30 mile an hour wins. Could be a win. You know, that is just extremely beneficial to the Browns who, you know, lead the league in yards per carry. and have two of the most dynamic backs in the NFL against a bad run defense. Kyler Murray also dealing with a little bit of a shoulder issue last week. So I'm not sure how much that's going to linger or affect them this week,

but it could. And, you know, you have some wind as well. Brown's defense playing really well. But I think that their front is going to control this game. No Chandler Jones for Arizona as well. So when Baker-Mayfield does have to throw, doesn't have to worry about his pass-rushing ability. So I think Cleveland gets this done on the ground.

and Arizona finally doesn't, you know, steal one of these wins. Okay, I think you convinced me because you're right. You can run on Arizona. And holy moly chub last week. I mean, he looks right now the best running back in the week. And Kareem Hunt is, I mean, they easily have the best one-two punch. So I think you convince me there. Okay, Dallas.

I'll also take that staff. I'll also take the Cleveland staff any day of the week over Arizona. And the one thing that throws off, just historically, and this is what the Niners did, even though they lost that game is when you're physical with the air raid up front. Miles Garrett's the type guy that you can just throw off. I mean, Nick Bosa was all over Kyler last week. And the thing is that makes Kyler so special is he doesn't, you know, he doesn't take a lot of hits when he runs like Lamar,

like you saw last week with Traylancy slides. But if you can catch him behind when he's throwing in the pocket last year, that's where Seattle got him, he's so small. And he's, you know, Miles Garrett is, you know, a complete freakazoid, just a sack of Kyler. He gets up sometimes. You can tell last week, all of a sudden he gets thrown to the ground and he wasn't the same the rest of the game.

So that's to me something to keep an eye on two, just big picture with Arizona. Because if he gets thrown off, if he goes to, you know, from 100% to, let's say, 75, 80%, that is trouble for them, right? Yeah, yeah. And Joe Woods, the defense coordinator of the Brown. So I'm a big fan of he's familiar with Kyler. Yeah, he was at, he was at, he was, the Niners in 2019, defensive backs coach, passing game coordinator. So that familiarity

that I think can pay off here. So yeah, I think the Browns get done at home. Okay, Dallas at New England, I'd take New England here basically just because it feels like everyone will bet Dallas. New England squeaks out a win on the road against Houston. I think people, you know, the masses are going to just think New England's average, which hell they might be. But tough environment, Patriots, you know, aren't dead yet, right, at two and three. So who do like in this game? Yeah, I like the Patriots down to three and a half, anything plus three and a half, plus four. I think the Cowboys are getting a little bit too much love here in the market. I think this line should be under a field goal. Look, their offense is excellent, no matter how you slice it,

but the defense is really benefiting from turnovers. And I don't think that they can sustain that level of, I think they're, they lead the NFL and takeaways and just their second an EPA per turnover second NEPA per net turnover. It's a defense that, and you think back to that Tampa game, it's not like they were forcing these turnovers. These were balls that were popping into their hands, and that's what kept that game close. This is still a really suspect defense. I mean, Diggs is playing out of his mind at corner, and you have to love the addition of

Parsons, but you can still run on this team. They're still not getting a ton of pressure, which is important for Jones. When he does need to throw, you know, he's going to have time, and this game will slow down for them. It's important when you're looking at trying to bet a rookie quarterback. I think New England can control the line of scrimmage here. Establish a running game against Dallas, his run defense. And these are games that Bill Belichick just covers. I mean, he's 28, 13, and two against the spread as an underdog since 2003, covering by an average of six points per game. That's just under 69%. Home underdog.

A lot of Tom Brady there, though. That's true. Home underdog. I mean, but, look, home underdog since 2015 and 4 against the spread, 12 outright wins. We saw it against Tom Brady and a Bucks team a couple weeks ago. Tampa, I mean, excuse me, New England was 7 point underdogs and they almost won that game, if not for a questionable field goal decision late. So, you know, I think that there's a big coaching edge here. Special teams, don't be surprised if New England gains in edge and special teams here with a big player too. but mainly I think Dallas is just a little bit overvalued after four straight wins,

three of which came at home, by the way. So now they're, you know, they had three straight at home. Now they're traveling to New England. I think the Patriots find a way here to at least make this a field goal game. Wouldn't be surprised if they pull off this many upset. The only thing that would make me nervous here with New England Stucky would be clearly they are not, you know, and that Tampa game is a good example, right? They kept in the teens.

They lost 19 to 17 and they were in it right till the end. Four of New England or four of Dallas's five games, obviously that week one loss, they scored 29. And then the last three weeks, 41, 36, 44. Like Dallas can score. I mean, obviously for Dallas to win or I mean for Dallas to lose this game in New England, Belichick, you know, probably a 19 to low 20s type range. Like they're not going to win if Dallas gets in the high 20s, early 30s, right? So they're just going to have to come down.

to kind of ugly muddy it up. Yeah, I mean, Matt, Mac Jones is going to have to make a couple plays here because DAC and that offensive are going to score. I mean, I don't think you can expect to hold this Dallas offense under 20 points. But this Dallas defense, as I said, it's just if you look at some of the underlying metrics,

you know, they're not going to keep getting picks. There's still some holes here. So I think there's going to be some opportunities for New England and Mac Jones to score. So I think New England bounces back from, last week's poor showing. I mean, it was an awful spot. It was after that Tampa game with Dallas on deck.

So I think Bill will have them focused here. In October, this is Belichick's month. I mean, I call him October Bill. He's 68% against the spread in October. And he's only, I think, 50% still great, 57% combined in all other months. September, the Patriots, you know, even with Brady, they would always work on some things,

trying to figure out some things over the first. four or five games, and then they kind of find themselves and get rolling. So, you know, Back in Bill Belichick is a home dog in October, you could do worse things with your money. Okay. I have a gambling philosophy that any time a team off a Monday night, either a big win or a big loss, that's a huge emotional toll. And then it's a short week, even if you're playing at home and then the next week's

at home, I just, you know, if the team that you're playing the following week is also good, I'm just going to gamble on that team. Now, I don't know if the numbers bear that out, but Chargers this week at the Ravens, obviously incredible win for them, right, Monday night. The emotional high, and they've had several of those this year so far, kind of feel like they just, you know, eventually just kind of run out of juice in the game, even though I like the Ravens. Chargers, whether it's two and a half or three, whatever book you're looking at, I like the Chargers, you know, getting some points this week on the road.

How about you? Yeah, I'm going to disagree with you here. Look, I'm a Ravens fan. They're my most successful team I bet on. I rarely bet on. I've only been on them once this year against the Chiefs. And I was watching that game. They're going to make the playoffs.

And I'm a better first. I was saying, I hope they lose this game. And then it'll, you know, John Harbaal, that, you know, after a loss at home against a four-and-one Chargers team, they wouldn't have spent all that energy. So I get your point that I think it would have been better if they actually lost that game. So maybe, you know, they spent a lot. lot of energy. Their defense is a short week. But Harbaugh is generally, you know, he's one of the

better coaches in the league and he's good at getting his team back up for this game. They will be at home at least with what I expect to be a pretty raucous crowd. I just think the Chargers are getting a little bit too much love here after what they've done. Look, Justin Herbert is incredible. He's turning into one of the most elite quarterbacks in the NFL. But this Chargers offense, I don't think that they can sustain what they are. doing on third downs. I mean, it is, you look at some of their underlying metrics on third downs. You just watched that game last week. It was third and ten, third and nine, third and eight. I didn't even get to fourth downs yet. Fourth downs are eight for eight if you remove a fake

punt on the season within average yards to go of six and a half. Their opponents are only three of eight, within average yards to go of three. I mean, these are game changing drives. You get a fourth down here or there. I mean, the difference in those are, is just massive and they're flipping games around as we saw against the Browns last week. And if you look at some of the underlying metrics, early downs are a little more predictive

than third downs. Early downs, Ravens' Ravens' offense number one in the league in EPA per play. Chargers bottom 10. Ravens on third down, a little more luck involved and a lot more variance. Ravens are dead last in the league on third down. Success rate,

EPA per play. Chargers are obviously right at the top and fourth down the same thing. So I think this Ravens offense actually has some positive regression coming its way on third down. And the opposite is true for the Chargers. And I think this is, look, the Ravens have a killing teams on early downs by throwing the ball. Everyone's selling out to run it. The Chargers kind of let you run. They're playing back. They're not giving up anything deep. And I think that you're going to see the vintage Ravens rushing attack come back here because the Chargers run defense. They do. It's. invite you to run, but it's also awful.

They're linebackers, their defensive linemen, very underwhelming group. So I think the Ravens can really get going on the ground here. I think you're getting them cheap. I mean, before the season, the projected line for this game, the lookout line was Ravens minus six. And I think everyone is really a narrow,

and rightfully so in some aspect with what Herbert has done. I'm just not sure this Chargers team could sustain all of this third down and fourth down success throughout the season, that regression monster looms. So if you can get the Ravens under two and under three, I do like them. And the one last point, enormous, enormous special teams advantage here. I mean, I have the Ravens ranked number one in the league in special teams as they usually are every year by a decent margin.

I have the Chargers ranked 30 second dead last by a wide margin. They don't have a kicker. And now you're going to, can Herbert? Can Herbert kick? Yeah, their kicker couldn't kick in college. He's on the team for kickoffs. I don't know why they don't have a – they couldn't find it. Once he was 60 percent college couldn't make extra points in college.

And now you're going against the – and then the Ravens obviously have the greatest kicker in NFL history. Do everything well on special teams. So that is – not a lot of people are going to look at that aspect of this game, but there's an enormous special team's edge in this game for the Ravens. And that could make all the difference in the world on the spread of two and a half. Can I go a bonus game here really quick? Sure.

The Sunday night game, which to me is kind of fascinating. given that obviously Russell's got out, Gino Smith. But we all thought Pittsburgh really sucked until they got, I mean, they got a pretty impressive win against a really good defense. Now, granted, the game was at home against Denver. I mean, is Seattle just going to get their ass kicked? I mean, because I think most people would just be like, you know,

Gino Smith, the whole game, the defense, or is it fade the Steelers here? Yeah, I mean, it's, if you look back to Tomlin historically, like he, yeah, look, he beat the bills. the Steelers beat the bills. They look good against the Broncos, and they have the head scratching losses. Tomlin losing this game would fit the mold of what Tomlin does.

And it's hard for me to back the Steelers at, you know, at minus six with that offensive. You would look better last week. You would think that Seattle, this is Seattle's, you know, they lose their star player. Everyone is going to come to play. Pete Carroll is pretty good off of a loss. I just don't know how much Gino's,

Smith can give you under pressure in a loud environment. It's going to be tough. He's never been great under pressure in his entire career. And look, this Seattle team, I had them a little above average. And then Russell Wilson always gives you a shot. Yeah. Any Sunday. Without him, this is arguably a bottom five team in the league with Gino's,

but the defense is bad. The offensive line isn't great. It's basically hope that a backup quarterback can throw to your really good receivers. That's really the only strong suit of this team now. So, yeah, it's hard for me to make a case for either team here. Like Seattle's six is probably maybe fair than to me. Seattle's probably going to give you everything that they have.

Everyone is going to show up for this without Russ, the first game. It's kind of a star effect. And the Steelers, I just don't want to lay six with Tomlin and this offense. So for me, pure stay away. Yeah, I would tend to agree. Seattle feels like, you know, without Russell, like the Cavs, without LeBron or Houston Rockets without Hardin. You know, it's just they are a basketball team that is predicated on one guy to carry the ship.

And when he's gone, you saw it on that Thursday night game last week. It's just they're holding on for dear life. Yeah. Do you do see like in basketball a Star Effect bump, like the first game without the star? Everyone is max effort. And then you see teams over perform. right after that next game. Run out of juice.

It's, oh my God, we don't have Russ. So they could get a bump from that in the first game, but it's definitely going to be tough in that environment against that defense. Okay, Stucky. Thanks for joining me and have a great weekend. Absolutely. Good luck. See you, buddy. The volume.

Get right to the romance and find the way to wow this valentines with 1-800flowers.com. From classic roses and bouquets to decadent chocolate-covered berries, gourmet treats and more. Surprise your Valentine with 1800flowers.com. Right now, get the 18th stem enchanted rose medley for $39.99 or upgrade to 24 red roses for $10 more. Go to 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman helped make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an

a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human beings. potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball in college football journey or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your

podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On the Look Back at a podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 is big to me I'm Sam Jay And I'm Alex English Each episode

We pick a year unpack what went down And try to make sense Of how we survived it With our friends Fellow comedians And favorite authors Like Mark Lamont Hill

On the 80s It was a wild year I don't think There's a more important year for black people Listen to look back at it On the IHeart Radio app Apple Podcasts

Or wherever you get your podcasts This is an IHeart podcast Guaranteed in.