The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Baker Lives, Vrabel Power Play (?), Tua vs. Herbert, Week 14 3 for the $$$

Episode Date: December 9, 2022

John reacts to Baker Mayfield’s unexpected comeback win in his Rams debut, if he can build on the success or if it’s a one and done, and why he still has major questions about Josh McDaniels as an NFL head coach. He also discusses if Mike Vrabel could have played a role in the unexpected firing of Titans GM Jon Robinson, why Tua is still nowhere close to Justin Herbert’s level, and why the transfer portal needs to be reigned in. Finally, he runs 3 Week 14 NFL games by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement on this week’s picks!  Subscribe NOW and follow Middlekauff and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content. It's always FanDuel for the best wagering action! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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up with promo code Colin so they know we sent you. What is going on, everybody, John Middlecock, three and out podcast. Baker Mayfield is alive. Alive and well, so are the Rams after beating Der Raiders. You could argue one of the worst losses of the season. A lot of other stuff going on. Lamar Jackson, John Robinson fired in Tennessee, a little Tua Chargers, the transfer portal, dive into a lot of

lot. You can subscribe to the podcast, three and out podcasts. Also, make sure, uh, firing the middlecough mailbag at John Middlecough is the Instagram. At John Middlecoph is the Instagram. And, uh, yeah, let's just dive right in. Some thoughts here on this Thursday night, barn burner with starting with Baker Mayfield. And I would say he's become and had become, and really was one of the most polarizing players in the NFL. And let's face it, for the last two years, it has been a complete disaster for the guy, right? The last year in Cleveland was really ugly.

Now, he was injured, but the team did not like him. The players clearly didn't because when he got traded, they didn't have many positive things to say. And Stefanski and the general manager, Andrew Barry, were clearly not big fans either. They were over it. And they were ready to move on well. before the Deshawn Watson thing ever became not only available but like a destination to

Cleveland. They were off Baker Mayfield for whatever reason. I don't have any inside sources there. It's just clear they had enough of the guy. They did not like each other. And then he goes to Carolina and was you could make the argument statistically. Zach Wilson would throw up his hand. He was one of the worst quarterbacks, if not the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. And it led to his coach getting fired, which wasn't totally his fault. The guy was on the hot seat coming into the year, but Baker Mayfield was not good with the Carolina Panthers. And we had all just kind of acknowledge former number one overall pick, he's just not good enough. This is not going to work. And then this week, he gets, you know, gets his release, gets waived. The Rams pick him up.

Right move. The Rams, who, look who they're playing with. Aaron Donald's on the sideline. Cooper Cups on the sideline. Matt Stafford's on the sideline. Jalen Ramsey's getting cooked. You know, I mean, they are dependent on four players. Three of them is three closed. The other guy is not having a great season. So you go, why not? The only way, like coming into this game,

the Detroit Lions had the third overall pick because that's where the Rams are drafting. So they don't have their first round pick. They have nothing to lose. McVeigh kind of needs a project to get going. It made some sense. But then when the game started, you're like, well, I was hoping they would start them,

but I understood when Walford came running out. and then McVeigh went to the bullpen immediately. Now, I'm recording this. McVeigh probably talking to the media. Maybe that was the plan all along. Maybe he just said screw it. There obviously are some parallels and similarities and basically the same offense

that Stafansky a couple years ago and McVeigh runs, even though McVeigh has definitely become more pass-happy, but the boots and the Shanahan zone running scheme is something that Baker-Mayfield's familiar with. Now, that being said, to come in on two days of work and be able to lead one of the worst teams in football, arguably beside the Texans, the worst team in football. That team is not good.

To a win against a team that has a star pass rusher, a really good quarterback, arguably the first or second best wide receiver. Like they got some good players on the Raiders, and they had been playing good football. To beat them, I, you know, when the game's going on, especially once we go to the second half, I start thinking about my angles and my takes. And my take was going to be, before that game winning drive, what a night for Baker Mayfield. What an incredibly positive night.

At worst, if he can just play competent football, which he had. And he ended up being 22 with 35 for a couple hundred yards and obviously the game winning touchdown. But even if the game winning touchdown had not taken place and he ended up 18 of, you know, 30 or whatever, he had a real NFL game. That's what an NFL quarterback looks like. Maybe a backup, maybe a fringe starter, but a guy that can play in the league.

Now, to be a backup, maturity matters. And that's been a big knock on them. Like a lot of teams, if you're going to be Josh Allen, if you're going to be Patrick Bahomes, if you're going to be Justin Hurd, if you're going to be some of these guys backup, Matt Stafford, they want a grownup. And if Baker Mayfield can play like that

and then around Sean McVeigh be a grownup, he can resurrect his career, extend his career because it was trending before the Rams waves. I'm like, is this guy going to be out of the league? Is this guy going to be out of the league fast? And then he has a night like tonight. And Sean McVeigh, a Super Bowl champion, one of the higher level coaches. I give the Rams a lot of credit. Even before they won the game, they played their ass off. And really beside Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey and Baker Mayfield's famous, though he has not good, they're playing with a lot of Randos. I mean, their left tackle, Herb Street,

describing him, he's been to like several different leagues. It's like, no wonder they're getting worked. And they just tried really, really hard. And that is a mark of a good coach. This is beyond the season for hell from them, especially when you factor in. They're coming off the Super Bowl, and they tried hard. But ultimately in football, it's one thing to try. It's another thing to execute the offense. It's another thing to drive the field. And they struggle with that a lot of the game. And then those last couple drives, Baker Mayfield, honestly, I don't want to say brilliant, but he was just really, really good. And for a guy that It's been really, really bad.

That's a huge positive. And now the only thing he needs to do the rest of the season is just act like a grown-up around the operation. Show up early, stay late, be a sponge. And sometimes, like, we always think, you know, when you get traded or you get cut or you get fired or something goes wrong that you get humbled, that doesn't happen to everybody.

Some of us, when something bad happens and whether we're on top of the world or things are going well, we get humbled. Some people don't. and it might take some people to stumble several times. Humility might even be the wrong word just to do some introspection and go, I need to change. Something like I can't keep throwing the same pitch.

I need to do something else that might work. And maybe it took Baker Mayfield from being traded to the Carolina Panthers and then forcing his release, you know, in a second jersey of the season, to go, you know what, I got nothing to lose. I'm going to come in here, bright-eyed, bushy-tailed, work my ass off and just see where the chips might, you know, fall. You're right. I'm going to give my all from a personality standpoint and from a football standpoint.

And from a football standpoint, the dude played a high-level game. And the Raiders defense isn't good, but that's withstanding, right? Non-withstanding. He showed up on Tuesday afternoon. I mean, Wednesday, that's pretty crazy. And he's not playing Cooper Cup and Marshall Falk and Todd Gurley ain't walking through that door. Isaac Bruce. I mean, this ain't the greatest show on.

turf. He's dealing with Scoronic and Van Jefferson, who's back from injury, and Tutu Atwell, which I'm pretty sure I was watching the Red Zone a couple weeks ago. He got a touchdown, and Siciliano's like, Breaking News, Tutu Atwell, just scored the first touchdown of his NFL career. He's not a rookie. So the team he was dealing with, listen, to watch McVeigh's excitement, excitement as a football fan, like, that was fun. That was for a game that, for a lot of it, just like, oh my God, this game sucks. I'm not going to complain about having to watch football for a living, but God, this game's boring.

And then to have that happen, it's a little bit like Monday night. It's like, God, I've got to watch this game. And then Tom Brady just goes to go tonight. And then Baker Mayfield feels like resurrects his career in like two drives. Like, that's why we watch. It's the ultimate reality television. You never actually know what's going to happen, right? And that's what makes pro sports so much fun and just sports in general.

Pro sports because these guys become big personalities. You know, they have ups, they have downs like Baker Mayfield. Part of what makes tonight so cool is how low it had been for Baker Mayfield. How low it had been for the ramps, right? And the Raiders had been playing well. So that was really, really fun. And my take on the Raiders was going to be, I've said this forever. And really, if you play, I've always said like after the first month, so starting early October,

If you are the road team and you win a Thursday night football game, this is not college football. You don't get extra credit for blowing teams out or keeping the game close. Just win the game, move on. You can go 12 and 5 and have 12-1-point victories and you are the two-seat. So all you got to do is win. And when you're the road team, in December, I care nothing how it looks. It does not matter.

If you go on the road on a Thursday night game around Thanksgiving or after and win the game, that is a massive, massive win. And it felt like, God, the Raiders are going to win this game. They're going to be six and seven. They're going to get a long week to the Patriots. And there is a roadmap to them competing for the seventh seat. That ended tonight. And I think you'd have to quantify this year as once you make a big trade for Devante Adams, once you extend Derby. car, you extended Hunter Renfro and

Waller who have been injured. Max Crosby's had an excellent season. Max Crosby is a beast. And to be 5 and 8, they still play the Chiefs, they still play the 49ers. I mean, next week the Patriots, that's no guaranteed win. I mean, this year is a failure for the Raiders. It's not

a Denver level failure. It's not a Rams level failure, but it's a pretty big disaster. Because you don't have that much history in the last couple decades of success. So ultimately, this game, and this result and this season where you're destined to be under 500 again is kind of who you are who you have been.

I think last season with Derek and those guys rallying together and them getting to the playoffs and playing a competitive game. A lot of people act like that Cincinnati game. It was close at the end. The game during the game was not that close. Cincinnati was the much better team. But the Raiders, you never apologize for just making the playoffs and losing the first. round. They have two playoff appearances in 20 freaking years. Like, you know, they're, they've been a

disaster as a franchise. And there was a ton of momentum. I bought the hype. I bought the hype. And a lot of people, a lot of people out there on the streets call me a Raider hater. They think I have some personal vendetta against the franchise. They think that I root for them to lose. I was the guy who picked them to make the playoffs this year. Who picked them to be really good? Who thought Josh McDaniels was a home run higher? I'm like, this thing is not just going to work. And then the offseason, they get Devante fucking Adams. I'm like, Jesus, is this an 11-win team? I mean, they are going to struggle potentially to win seven games.

Just an utter ultimate disaster. It's why we talk about the Chargers a lot. The reason everyone's so hard on Brandon Staley, when you have a competent quarterback and you're paying, you know, the Chargers aren't even paying them yet, you got to make the playoffs. Like, say what you want about the Ravens, a lot of ups and downs, now Lamar's injured.

They make the playoffs every year. you just make the playoffs. Obviously he didn't last year actually because he was injured. But you know what I mean? They're going to make the playoffs again. You just make the playoffs and the Raiders just don't. And now they got all this star power, like legitimate star power. Max Crosby is a high, high-end pass pressure.

Devante Adams is between him, Tyree Kill, and Justin Jefferson. Best wide receiver in the league. You know, Derek Carr is the top, 12-ish quarterback. Josh Jacobs, stud. Stud. Are we sure Jackson-M game? Was that good? Are we sure?

You know, because everyone's like, you're going to give them credit now? They've won three games in a row. Well, you can't be losing to Baker Mayfield when he showed up on Tuesday. Think about this. Josh McDaniels has two losses this year that you could argue, given the circumstances, are, I mean, two of the worst losses of the league. He lost to Jeff Saturday's debut. Jeff Saturday hasn't, not only not one since.

I mean, the Cowboys just beat him like 75 to 2 the other day. and he just lost to Baker Mayfield who showed up on Tuesday. Let's face it, anyone listening to this, if your coach and you had a decent squad with some talent, lost those two games, hard to forget that. Now, I know Mark Davis gave him the dreaded vote of confidence. He's my guy.

That's why we signed the contract. I believe in him. Those two losses are hard. I miss this. My producer, James, like, you see Ice Cube showing the peace sign with Mark Davis? Ice Cube is one of the biggest Raider fans going. Obviously, an L.A. guy.

comes to the game, big deal sitting with Mark Davis. Mark Davis, entertaining Ice Cube, and you witness that. Van Jefferson, catching a game winning touchdown. That is a kick in the nuts. That is, you know, for as cool as the Baker win was, and it was. Right, whenever you get some historic, I know it's not historic, but like, on the, based on this season, that's one of the more bigger wow wins of the season. Well, on the flip side, that's one of the bigger, holy shit, lock.

of the year. That loss tonight is worse than the Jeff Saturday loss. Honestly, it might not be close. I mean, they were up 16 to 3 in the fourth quarter. I mean, even that final drive, the Rams did not have any timeouts. They had no timeouts. And hell, look what happened on that final drive. Max Crosby destroys Baker Mayfield, sacks him, great sack. Chandler Jones comes into, and what happens? The defensive tackle hits the ball out of his hands. Like, Joshman Daniels, you know, he's supposed to be this Belichick guy. What's Belichick big on details, not screwing up, not biting yourself, you know, not screwing up. Controlling what you control.

That's just moronic. That was, what are you doing? That gave him 15 yards of life. And then from there, they just worked the ball down the field. And I don't know, man. The Raiders, I bought in originally, and then they kind of suck me back in their three-game winning streak, even though they haven't really beat anybody. And they just, that's the Raiders franchise, man.

They will humble you fast because they just lose a lot, man. They really, really do. That might be an all-timer tonight. Football season is underway. So now is the perfect time to download FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Because right now, new customers get a no-swet first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win.

Just sign up using the promo code, Colin. FanDuel has all your favorite bets from money line to point spreads to player props. You can combine your bets for a chance at a bigger payout with a same game parlay. The app is safe, secure, and super easy to use. Get paid your winnings fast. So sign up today with promo code Colin for your no sweat first bet. Make every moment more this season with FanDuel, official sportsbook partner of the NFL. 21 and over in president of Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut.

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Visit www.1-800 gambler.net, West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human beings. potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey, from basketball to college football or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,

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Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Okay, the shocking news of the week, John Robinson, who's been on this podcast before, was fired this week. And personally, I've known the guy since I was a graduate assistant at Fresno State

when he worked for the Patriots. He's been really cool to me. So I like the guy. And from just a football standpoint, his resume speaks for itself. They've done a lot of winning. I mean, last year in a conference with Buffalo and Kansas City, he was the number one seat, his team. He's also, Mike Vrable, the head coach, like, he hired him.

So this thing was pretty shocking. And I tried to do some digging. I tried to put my Big J hat on, even on the furthest thing from it, and try to find out, like, people in the NFL, if they had heard anything, and I couldn't get anything beside what's been reported on. I think most people around the league were shocked when it happened. And I watched Mike Vrabel's press conference. He claimed to have nothing to do with it.

It was all ownership. Even though he answered to Mike and Mike picked, or excuse me, John, and John picked the players. I wouldn't say it got contentious, though Vrable, you know, I would say it was a pretty good politician in that press conference. A couple weeks ago when Ohio State got their ass kicked by Michigan, it kind of hit me going, if I was a big money booster at Ohio State, and Ohio State thinks of themselves as Alabama, you know, from a financial standpoint like Texas or USC, unlimited resources, and we should win or compete for national championships every single year. and when Jim Harbaugh, the guy they hate the most back-to-back seasons,

not only kicks their ass, but shoves them around, it was like, are we sure that every rich guy at Ohio State in terms of the guys cutting the checks to the football program, like what's going on right now with Ryan Day? I know he's 45 and 5, but two straight years losing to Michigan, that will not be tolerated. Their standards are just higher. And you go, well, who would they replace him with?

Like, they're not getting Nick Sabin. And I was like, well, you know who played there. a guy named Mike Vrable. And USC essentially just paid Lincoln Riley $120 million. Ohio State easily could offer a similar package and $120, $130 million, especially when you're paying for housing and taking care of the mortgage rates and the interest rates.

It's crazy what you can do these boosters to entice a coach would at least make you think. Now, being a head coach in the NFL is better than being a head coach in college. Transferral portal, recruiting, pain in the ass. but Ohio State could pay and would be willing to pay him more than he's making in Tennessee. And the other thing is when you become a head coach

in college, you're the boss of everything. You're the GM, you're the coach, you are the boss. You know, depending on what school you're at, you're basically the owner too. Nick Saban is the GM, the head coach, and the owner of Alabama football. Kirby Smart has become that as well at Georgia.

When Pete Carroll was at USC, that was him. So I never thought Mike Vrable would even entertain if they reached out, but it would create leverage. And what happens when coaches have leverage? They get raises and they get what they want from the personnel department. Now, Mike Vrable was adamant. He had nothing to do with it. I don't believe most things coaches say. Why?

They lie all the fucking time. Just as a lot of people in corporations, in government, in pro sports, people with public jobs that have to be careful about what they put out to the press, lie constantly. It's part of the job. So he might be telling the truth. He also might be lying. And he did mention in the press conference, he answered. The hierarchy was John Robinson was above him.

So if Ohio State's coming after him, and it obviously hasn't been reported, this is just an educated guess if we follow football long enough. Like, it's just not going to be tolerated at Ohio State getting worked by Michigan. Getting at home, they hadn't lost at home to Michigan since Jim Harbaugh was a player in the NFL. So even if they just quietly reased out, that's enough to get him juice with the owner. That's how things happen. And we saw this years ago a little differently when Chip Kelly forced Howie Roseman out. Now, the difference is Mike Vrable's a real NFL coach.

And head coaches, if he's good and a GM, if he's good, if you got to choose one, you should always choose the head coach. They are much more difficult to find. It's easier to find a personnel guy to run your operation. Now, this is just a working theory is that Mike Vrable forced him out. I don't have any insider information, but I do think that's a very plausible explanation to what happened.

Because a general manager, who's all his team does is go to the playoffs every single year, work their division rival constantly in the Colts, you would think that he wouldn't get fired in early December. Now, the other curveball, they just played the Eagles.

John Robinson traded their, you know, second or third, or maybe first, depending on the game, their best player to the Eagles. He kicks their ass. The owner had a box. If you saw the video that went viral, Eagle fans are flipping them off,

talking a bunch of shit, screaming F bombs at them, and maybe they just flipped. But that would be just get emotional over one game for as bad as the loss was, and obviously the Eagles are much better than the Titans, but in terms of A.J. Brown working them, that feels a little unbelievable.

But I would say there are probably a lot of variables at the end of the day, and you would have to say that Mike Vrable, with a little bit of a power play, is a very, very plausible explanation. And if when the season ends, Mike Vrable is essentially the general manager, head coach, will know that's what happens. Because that's what would have been offered to him at Ohio State. He'd be the boss of everything and make an astronomical amount of money. Have his house paid for, his assistance.

He'd have $2 million coordinator. They have unlimited resources. I mean, they do. Now, you could argue Tennessee. he's got a lot of money too. It's more that like he used the pitch. Maybe he just wanted to be the boss. Maybe he didn't want to keep taking orders from this guy.

I'm not saying John Robinson was giving him orders, but John Robinson, when a draft pick or a player acquisition came through, especially at a high monetary amount or high in the draft, like it was John's decision. And some coaches don't like that. You know, and especially the bigger and better you get

and Mike Vrable's star has grown as a head coach. and he's like, let me pick the players. What Bill Parcells say, you want me to cook the dinner? Let me go get the groceries. And I think that's understandable. It's also just a crazy business. It's one reason why once I left, you know, almost a decade ago, I never really thought about going back.

You know, I thought I was pretty good at my job and a lot of people are new to this. You know, I got into an argument in a draft meeting. After Andy got fired, Chip had taken over. I was doing the West Coast with Chip Kelly over Matt Barkley, who obviously I lost that argument because Chip not only drafted the guy, I got fired. But, you know, there's so many politics at play in the NFL. The owner is always siding with agents or coaches or G. You just never know.

A lot of backstabbing, a lot of egos, a lot of insecurity. And it's just you could be really good at your job and get fired. You can be really shitty at your job and keep your job for a long period of time. Now, I bet a lot of people listening in corporate America, Yeah, that's parallels a lot of different industries, not like the NFL is alone here, but it's just, it's a, I think it could be a really shitty business at times. Like, you can be successful and get run out of town. And you can be bad and keep a job because people like you.

It happens with assistant coaches all the time. It happens with scouts all over the league all the time. It's not always on the merit of your job. That's the irony about the whole league is based on the game and the players. players is very merit-based, right? Russell Wilson would be cut if they'd get out of his contract. They all know he sucks. If he was on a year-by-year contract, they would get rid of him tomorrow.

If players don't produce, they get benched, they get cut. Yet that's not always the case here. Now, obviously, you're not going to fire Mike Brable. He's really, really good, but this just felt a little slimy. It really did a little out of left field and a little bit like Mike Vrable is now the Grand Poubaugh and the head honcho. and I would imagine the future general manager could be wrong, the future general manager of the Tennessee Titans.

Aaron Judge just signed nine years for $360 million. It's crazy, some of the money these baseball players are getting. Like in what world? I love Aaron Judge. I love Trey Turner. Some of these guys getting eight, nine, ten year deals at 30 years old. It's insanity to me. I mean, it's just bad business.

It just is. I mean, it's not a way that anyone if they could choose would want to do business, right? But it's the way it is in baseball and it leads to a lot of bad contracts. Now, I'm not saying Aaron Judge is necessarily a bad contract, but the chances that like the last three years of that deal at $100 plus million total is going to be $100 million well spent, he better ball out the next four or five years to make it all worth it.

But I saw Jeremy Fowler on the bird website, Twitter.com, say what Aaron Judge did, because he bet on him, It was a very, very impressive life lesson. The guy had a contract in front of him for $215 million. Now, he'd added an impressive career, but he'd also been injured a lot. $215 million, all guaranteed. And he told the Yankees to kick rocks. I'm going to play the season out and see where the chips fall.

See where the dust settles. Obviously, you know, worked out well for Aaron Judge. It was a ballsy move. It's easy to say now it was a ballsy. moved. Backed it up, cool. And I support any human being alive that bets on themselves. But just because you bet on yourself doesn't guarantee you that you're going to win. At minimum, you're going to learn, I mean, you're going to get a feel for whatever decision you make and have experience based on that decision and then figure it out after the fact. But you're not guaranteed

financially to always come out the other side with more money. I mean, that's a fact. And Jeremy Fowler said Lamar Jackson is attempting to do when he turned down the Ravens offered what Aaron Judge just did. And my first thought was, that's the dumbest tweet I've ever seen, because that is not the case at all. Lamar Jackson, Aaron Judge's most powerful leverage was when the season ended, if he had a good season, and obviously he had a historic season, he was a free agent. He was free to go where he pleased.

he could have half the league, probably less than that, but I mean, big money teams bidding over his services. Even if he had just hit 40 home runs, and had a solid season, every team in the league that could afford him would have been interested. So he was going to have, that drives up the price, right? And Lamar Jackson is not going to be a free agent. So when you turn down contracts, even if quote unquote in your free agency year, when you're a quarterback, we saw it with Kurt Cousins, who was nowhere near as good as Lamar Jackson when he was with Washington. Well, what happened? He didn't hit free agency for multiple years because he kept getting franchise tagged.

So until you hit free agency, that's when you gain the leverage. So is Lamar really betting on himself? Not really, because he's stuck. So if anything, he just knows, like, I can just play into back-to-back franchise tags. But when you play like he plays and people get mad, like, he didn't get hurt running around. That's not the point. his style as a player

he just opens himself up two more hits because he does run around and he got hurt again now you can say well it's within the pocket what a freak injury I get that but Lamar Jackson now who quote unquote bet on himself and turn down

a lot of money and the difference is the Ravens what they offered him you know $160 70 million dollars Aaron Judge knew that like if I dominate and win the MVP that 215 will be, let's just say, at the time he thought, 350. Or let's even say 300. It's a $75 million difference.

What's a difference if Lamar Jackson has had a good season? $10 million? I've said from the beginning, I don't see the risk at, like the risk doesn't outweigh the reward here. Because the reward is not like, well, they're offering you $170 next year. They're going to offer you $2.20. That's not going to happen. They don't care what. what Kyler Murray got paid.

They don't care what Deshawn Watson got paid. Or excuse me, I guess Kyler Murray, they give them the Kyler Murray contract. But you're not getting the Deshawn Watson contract. That's just not happening. No one in the NFL gives a shit about Jimmy Haslam and the worst deal we've ever seen signed.

They just don't. And they're not going to copy that. Because that is essentially these baseball deals. And honestly, those deals for us to consumer, I don't ultimately care what guys get paid, but like we benefit more as fans of the sport and from an entertainment value, the league benefits, from not being stuck in a lot of these contracts. Like Russell Wilson's shitty contract is a complete outlier in the league. Same thing with Kyler Murray, even though we all knew they shouldn't have signed Kyler

Murray. At the time, like Russell Wilson, I've said over and over, I would have signed that contract too. But most of these deals, even the worst deals you can get out of in like two, three years, three years max, most of them too. So Lamar Jackson, who's now injured, I just think that decision is aging very, very poorly. I saw people arguing on the internet, and I'm not going to spend too much time on this because I think it's so stupid.

I'm not a to-a-hater. I just think his numbers going into last week's game against the Niners, he was 19 and 3. I didn't view him as some guy who, I didn't view him as a top-10 quarterback. Like, I know his statistics, I know where he stood, but I didn't view him that way.

And then I saw some people, because this week he's playing the Chargers, go, well, Tua now has completely changed the narrative. A year ago, everyone's like, Justin Herbert, how could you pass on them to take Tua? Listen, I don't give a flying, you know what, what the stats are at the end of the season. There is not a coach in the NFL. There is not a general manager in the NFL.

There is not a team in the NFL. And that includes Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphrine. that would not trade Justin Herbert, or excuse me, trade Tua for Justin Herbert. So this notion that, oh, he's just a big, high-weight speed guy, no, well, he wins and losses. It is not his fault that Justin Herbert, his head coach, is a complete buffoon and is terrible at his job, one of the worst defensive coordinators in the NFL. He also happens to be the head coach. Last year, the Chargers missed the playoffs.

Justin Herbert threw 38 touchdowns. He was, by all accounts, people I knew in the NFL, by statistical measure, by the I test, a top five quarterback in the league. Yet his team missed the playoffs. That was not his fault. That was the head coach's fault and the defense's fault. That was putrid. This year, Mike McDaniel has benefited a lot.

Clearly, Mike McDaniel, really good head coach, is an offensive coordinator who, also the head coach, who impacts the game. And then they made a trade to Tyree Kill, who is by far the best player on that team. And it's really work. He's dominant. I've said all the time, if anyone from the Dolphins is going to be in the MVP mix,

it's Tyree Kill. And I'm not trying to shit on Tua. He has been much better than I thought, and he's having a good season. Miami obviously controls their own destiny to get to the playoffs. But this notion that, like, Tua, if anything, he's established that if you build a good enough offense around him, he can excel.

and be a successful quarterback. But this notion that he's now past Herbert or whatever, like put down the crack pipe, put down the drugs. Because there is not one human being. Not one that is outside of Tua's family that would take Tua over Herbert. And there's nothing wrong with saying that. Like Justin Herbert is not just a top five talent.

He's been a top five quarterback. I think most people like, is Tua really a top ten quarterback? We'll see. We'll see how. he comes down this home stretch, because I am still somewhat dubious. And last but not least, like, I've always thought it was very disingenuous the way, the media. You know, even guys like Jay Billis, people that talk about college sports, always acted like the players were getting screwed.

When players were actively getting paid, well before I was born all through my life. And it was technically illegal by the NCAA. And listen, I'm pro-capitalism. I was cool with everyone getting paid under the table. I was for that. But I was never disingenuous acting like no one's actually getting paid when they're all getting all the top players. And Jay Billis was very outspoken about this for years

when his program, Duke, don't get it twisted, we're paying premiums for those players. And rightfully so. I'd pay Zion. I'd pay Kyrie. I would pay all those guys too to play college basketball in my program. I just don't pretend that they're not getting an astronomical amount of money under the table.

And then when the feds popped all those people in college basketball, it was weird. Like even the media is like, well, he's like, yeah, they were all getting paid. College football is no different. It's a little different that the amount of money to the majority of the guys was probably lower than basketball because there's more of them. If I miss out on this linebacker and get another linebacker,

if I miss out on the number two power forward in the country, the gap on the next guy might be pretty big. The difference between like the third O lineman and the seventh O lineman is probably not that big of a difference, right? Especially at the highest level with the top programs. But now the NIL, everyone's getting a lot of money. And it does feel a little bit like if some of these numbers are true, not all this is penciling.

For every Bryce Young or Caleb that's worth whatever they are making, you know, Michael Panix, whatever, he got paid to return, it's worth it because they're the quarterback, the impact. You can't tell me like the right guard is actually, if he's making, I don't know, 400K or whatever. Some of these numbers feel a little out of whack to me. But again, pro-capitalism, you don't get what's fair, you get what you negotiate.

So at all four, all these guys getting money. But this transfer portal now is basically, like, part of what makes pro sports work is there is, and I'm not the biggest government guy, but there is some regulation and some rules needed in certain industries. And I think football, like, you're not a free agent every single year. If you sign a three-year contract, you're on the team for three years, right? You've got to wait until you hit free agency. You can't negotiate with a free agent during the season. You've got to wait until the league year ends, and then you can negotiate at the combine.

There are just rules that you have to follow. Like, if I want this player, I've got to wait in the draft. Like baseball, the guy becomes free agency after six years of arbitrage, whatever. Like, there are just some basic black and white things that you cannot circumvent. And it does feel that the NCAA, which I've always believed is a complete joke, is completely useless now. And this transfer portal thing, while, again, I don't think you should have to stay somewhere if you're not playing or you want to go somewhere new.

And I think it's actually pretty cool. I went to this website. It's called On3.com. And you can see where guys in the transfer portal, like a dude from Reno, who ends up going to Oklahoma State, or a guy from, you know, a smaller school, I'm trying to think off the top of my head.

Like Arizona State goes to Michigan. I think it's cool when a guy upgrades, right? But sometimes these guys downgrade. And maybe they downgrade just because I'm at a high level power five team. I'm at Penn State. I'm at Georgia. I'm at Alabama.

I'm at Texas. And I'm not playing. So I got to leave. Totally understandable too. But from what I know of college coaches and talking to some people in the business, they say a lot of these people just go in the portal just to shop themselves.

And it's like I somewhat understand that. And I wouldn't blame if I was in that position, I guess I would do it too. But like in pro sports, that's not the way it works. Like every year Aaron Donald can't be like, well, I'm just going to hit the portal, shop myself, see how much money I can come back. If you match it, then I'll come back. And it does feel like as these conferences, as they split,

and it's clearly going to be the Big Ten and the SEC to me are going to end up with like 20 teams each. There has to be some governing body where we just get some universal rules that everyone follows. Because right now, the Wild Wild West, actually I think a lot of kids end up getting fucked, right? Because a lot of guys go into this transfer portal and then they don't have a seat. once the dust settles. For every guy that's leaving Ohio State or Alabama, not going to be that difficult. But there are also a lot of guys

with Division I Power 5 scholarships that go in there and then don't have a place to go. And I think it's just a little, I don't have the answer. I just know what's going on right now can't be, is not a sustainable future. And it's not the healthiest thing

just for the kids, for the sport. Like, you could argue this. Because in the NFL, right, like Sean McVeigh, if I'm a team with an opening, let's just pick a team that's going to fire their coach. Denver Broncos. And I was like, I want to hire Sean McVeigh.

We're in college football. If the Rams and the Broncos were college football programs, if Sean McVe wanted to leave the Rams of the Broncos, he could. But in the NFL, that never happens. The only time it ever happened was when Gruden got traded for multiple ones. But you can't just like Luke Fickle leave Cincinnati

to go to Wisconsin. That's just, that's not allowed. It's not the way it works. Lane Kiffin bouncing around programs. You know, Hugh Fries, bouncing around programs, which is very, we're numb doing college football. It just happens all the time.

In the NFL, you're stuck. Maybe part of, like, these new rules whenever we figure out this conference realignment is maybe coaches get stuck. Like, you get a Power 5 job, at minimum you're there four years. You know, a recruiting class. I don't know.

But all I know, and I'm not like shady stuff, I kind of like shady stuff. That's what entertains me. This feels like a, jump the shark. You know, all these guys jumping in, all these quarterbacks bouncing around. And I'm not against a one-time transfer, but some of these guys like four different schools and five or six years, like, what the fuck are you doing? Are you just trying to make as many friends as possible? Are you trying to throw a touchdown in every different conference? Or are you

trying to like actually be a player? You know, or you just, it's weird because in the old days, you would have been like, well, very selfish kid. And I'm hesitant to say that. Like, these guys not playing in bowl games. Does not bother me at all. Will Levis, who's, I think, going to end up being a top five pick. Very good chance he's the number two overall pick. Not playing in Kentucky's bowl game.

Of course he shouldn't play in Kentucky's bowl game. It makes no sense. The other guy from Ohio State, number 11, I always screw up his name, Jackson, something, something. I can't say his last name. He hasn't played all season long. So I've seen people getting mad that he's not playing.

He hasn't been playing football. Like, if he had been on the team, and then just tapped out, I'd be the first to say that's a little weird, but he hasn't been around. So it's like, if you haven't been playing, he's not going to play in the game. Now, obviously, if you get a chance to go to the playoffs and you've been playing and you leave, yeah, I would say that's a red flag. But if you're going to these random bowl games and your team won seven or eight games and you're going to be a first round player, you can go.

Now, if you're going to be a fourth or fifth round player and you're playing a good opponent, you have the opportunity to earn some credit in the game. Is there a risk? For sure. But it's football. You're not guaranteed. You could be a six-round pick. What if you have a big game and you end up going in the fourth round? You can earn yourself money. But guys that to me are already, I'd even argue, like top 50 picks, I would recommend not playing in the bowl game. But there's a reason that all these teams in the playoffs have a lot of future first-round picks. They're going to play in the game. Why? There's a lot to gain. You can become a national champion. That's really been the whole point of playing the season.

season. So yeah, I mean, college football is just a chaos zone right now. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, untrower. filtered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only

deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clivert Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Back with my man Stucky.

You can find him on the Action Network podcast. You can find them on big bets on campus. You can find them on Twitter tweeting up a storm. Probably saying goodbye to Will Levis, as he's no longer ever going to play for Kentucky again. Don't blame him, though. That doesn't mean making the right decision. Do you got any updates on Kentucky Hoops? How are they looking?

They're looking okay. I mean, they're, they have a ton of talent as much as anybody. They're kind of falling behind in, as far as like coaching and just, they don't run much. Like they just, CalParty is an amazing recruiter media guy, but like as far as in-game adjustments and like the modern, modernizing what they do, they're kind of falling behind in that department. So we'll see how they, uh, uh, the long way to go. until March, and we'll say hopefully they can avoid getting upset in the first round of St. Peter's again.

Hey, well, we got some football. And actually, we got some, you know, these next couple weeks, we're really going to determine who's in the playoffs, who's not in the playoffs. Let's start with, I was with you last week on Kansas City, and you got to give the Bengals credit. I mean, the Bengals, to me, the Bengals are just pretty good. I mean, if that quarterback's going to be that good, they have every bid the chance to play with Buffalo and Kansas City, right, in the playoffs.

I mean, that guy, obviously, they probably have to go on the road, depending on how this next three or four weeks shape out. But, like, I'm not going to hate them whether they play. I guess they would more than likely probably play Kansas City in the second round, right, is the two, three game. And clearly they are not going to be intimidated to go in there and have a chance to win. Yeah, no, you have to give, look, I mean, there was a Kelsey Fumble, the cheats are up for, I don't know what Reed was still kicking that.

field goal because even if you make it, like Burroughs the ball with three minutes to go to get on the field and get another field goal. But you can look back earlier in that game. Tyler Boyd drops a wide open touchdown. Hit him in the face mask. Yeah. End of the first half, they went for it on fourth down. So yeah, I think that the Bengals were the right side in that game. You know, the Chiefs could have won. Yeah, and they're dangerous. Their defense, defense a coordinator makes really good adjustments in the second half. They consistently shut down teams in the second half. and then barrel with all of his weapons. Like, he's taking a big step forward in year two.

People don't realize it because he made this Super Bowl last year. He made the Super Bowl last year. But they weren't that great. Like, and if you look at their like yards per drive, you know, they were like 13th, 14th in the league. And they just kind of got, they got in late. And then they got a couple breaks and then got to the Super Bowl. But this year, if you look, like they're like third in the league and yards per drive. And he's really taking a big step forward.

I think the offensive line is only going to continue to improve. So, yeah, they're as dangerous as anybody in the IFC. Yeah, I mean, when Jamar Chase is out there with them, they feel like they are a juggernaut. And they clearly are. I mean, now I'm going to say what I said last week. I do like Kansas City to bounce back, but I hadn't seen the number until you sent over the email.

It is a pretty large number. It shows you how much Denver sucks. Add Denver to be getting 10 points. Their defense is good. I mean, Russell sucks. He's got awful, but their defense is legitimate. And, you know, Kansas City is just, you know, not consistently some offensive juggernaut. Even though last week, right, they just didn't score touchdowns, but they efficiently

moved the ball. And like you said, with the Kelsey touchdown, it's weird. I don't, defensive guys don't usually tap out, right? Like Denver's defense has been playing hard pretty much consistently all season long, despite Russell Wilson being in their head coach being a joke. So you would think they are going to play hard, especially at home. the crowd. I mean, I would imagine

the fans might be tapping out a little bit, but 10 points feels like a pretty large number, even for Russell Wilson, who can't throw a touchdown to save his life. Yeah, I reluctantly took the Broncos here. This is only the second time I've taken them, but you're right. The defense is still fighting.

They might end up leading the league in points allowed and then also lead the league with fewest points scored on offense. But they've only lost one game. by 10 or more points the whole year. I mean, they just went to Baltimore. I know Lamar got hurt, but they lost by one in inexplicable fashion. They've lost three games in overtime.

They've lost five games in which they've led in the fourth quarter. Their defense keeps them in every single game. And if you look, if there's a couple bounces or if their offense was just a tad bit more competent, this team could have an eight or nine wins. It's insane. And, yeah, their defense, I don't know when their defense is going to just collapse.

from, you know, every week trying to go out there and get them a win. But this isn't the spot. I mean, they're at home against Kansas City. The crowd will be into it. So, yeah, I think their defense shows up again. And every Broncos game is the same. It's a script. I feel bad for Broncos fans.

You come home, you know, Sunday, and you basically pop it in a tape. It's a movie. It's the same thing every week. It's like you lose 16, 13, 13, 10, 10, 9 in just hard. fashion. So, yeah, I think their defense can keep the minute. Mahomes, 7 and 0 straight up as a favorite of seven or more points on the road. He's also never lost on the road in division, which is crazy. But he's only one and six against the spread in those games. And if you want to fade Mahomes, it's when he's a favorite of seven or more. Their defense isn't great, which is hard for them to build margin.

And one of the things that Kubiak, the new play caller, is done, it hasn't translated into points, but they've gone just, they have so many injuries ever see them. They've gone really heavy. So they're using like three tight ends. And they're just going to like this power running game. It's given them, you know, Russell isn't getting hit as much. It's given them a lot more manageable third downs. I think that that can translate here against Kansas City.

His defensive line is not good against the run. So I think that they can move the ball some. And this is just, it's a big number for a road divisional game. So yeah, it's awful. It's going to be painful to watch. but give me Denver plus nine and a half, 10 at home. You know what's crazy thinking about it is like when you have an elite defense relative to like that season of other teams, you should be a borderline lock for like double,

you know, 10 wins, right? The Niners offense, I mean, they're going through three quarterbacks. They're going to win 11 games mainly because their defense dominates every week. And their offense has its moments, but it is by no means a juggernaut. You're a Ravens guy for a lot of years. you guys had anept offenses like when I was younger and we were younger right in the 2000s. But their defense gets you around 9 to 11 wins. Somehow the fucking Ray or the Broncos are going to win like four games because their offense has been that hidey.

Like it's hard to be as shitty as they've been, right? Yeah. I mean, the ratings on a Super Bowl with a shitty offense in 2000. I mean, they've won a couple of games without scoring a touchdown. And yeah, I mean, your offense has to be extremely bad. and this is. They're averaging 13.8 points per game. The last team to finish with under 14 points per game was the 2012 chiefs.

So yeah, you've got to be like historically bad offense to not, you know, at least get in the playoffs with this grade of a defense. They're in the game every week. And then it just falls apart. Well, speaking of if you can combine Denver's defense and Detroit's offense, I mean, you'd probably have a 16 and one team. They played Minnesota. And I honestly had to double look at this line.

line because I get Detroit's at home, but they're the favorite in this game. Now, I understand they've been playing really good football and they easily could have won that Thanksgiving game. And you know, you've been hammering home these stats on Minnesota, which the stats don't equal, like the record and the stats, you know, don't exactly parallel each other. But, I mean, the point of the whole sport is to win games. And I do believe, like, when you watch Minnesota, it's crazy how good Justin Jefferson is. Like, even when they, miss him. I guess it's stupid how good the guy is. I love the backup running back Madison. I mean, they are pretty offensively loaded. Defensively, though, obviously Detroit is just, I mean,

Jared gosh having a pretty good season. And they kind of believe and, you know, having the Rams pick in a weird way for a team that's not going to make the playoffs, it incentivizes them to keep trying to kick ass and take names. I mean, they got that pick coming to them. So like, whether their pick ends up 12 or 17, like they are trying to win these games. I like Detroit in this game. I don't know why. I mean, I bet against Minnesota all the time, and I, you know, I lose. But it does feel like I'm going to ride Campbell in the Lions.

Yeah, I like the Lions here too. I'm not sure how much, how much longer the Vikings can keep this up. But they're 10 and 2 with a plus 10 net scoring margin. Like that is insane. This is more like a five or six win team. They've won their last nine games have all come by one. possession. They're generally getting outscored in every game by a lot. I mean, they're getting lucky in turnovers, red zone. Last week, they were outgained by the Jets by almost 200 yards

of total offense against the Jets. They're 31st in the league and net, net yards per play. And if you look at a lot of metrics like power ratings, this team is like below average overall. Their defense isn't great. The lines are rolling. And the lines, you know, their offense is clicking on all cylinders. They're healthy now. It's one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and you said it. Golf's playing really well. You got your receivers healthy now. Even at Jameson Williams in the mix, and you're going against a defense that can't really stop anybody. You know, we just watched Mike White throw all over them. And then the week before, we said, oh, look, Matt Jones is this Patriots offense. Maybe it's back after the bot. Well, then they look awful against the bills. Granted, the bills are a pretty good day. But the Vikings defense is really bad. And, The blind's defense is actually like, they're still bad, but they're actually like improving a bit. If you look over the last three or four weeks, since the by week, they have, you know, some of their young players have really started to improve. Hutchinson's really coming to. Both the guys are a monster.

Yeah. So like, you know, this kid, Pascoe, they're playing and Joseph at safety. They got a lot of younger kids that are stepping up Rodriguez and linebacker. This defense in like two years, if they add like, if they just hit on like their. next couple of additions, whether it's free agency or draft picks, it could be really good to go along with this offensive lines. They're up and coming. They've covered five straight. I think they make it six and they win this game and keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Well, I don't think it's outrageous that if they just go, we don't love one of these quarterbacks, even though it feels like Dan Campbell's

going to like Will Levis, just big, powerful guy. I could see that. But if they just, if for whatever reason they don't, they could go easily with like a Will Anderson or that George. Georgia defensive lineman and then take another sweet, you know, player. They got Jameson Williams who's basically going to redshirt the season. I know he came back, but I don't think he's going to play much. They'll be cautious with them. Their team on paper could be pretty impressive. We know how their offensive lines good.

Their running games good. Yeah, James and Williams to go with St. Brown. Like if Hutchinson becomes kind of like a poor man's bosa, not Nick, but more Joey, I think they got a chance to be buck, you know, be just a playoff level roster. for sure. Now, can they coach? Right? That's going to be the question the more and more tight games he's in. Because when they've won, they've kind of been up. You know, the tight games have kind of gone not their way with some of this clock management and stuff. But I mean, next year, I think there's going to be some pressure on them because I think their roster is going to look pretty good on paper headed into the 2020 season. Yeah, I agree. And if, you know, defense to, you know, obviously your most important positions in the NFL, it's like they have their offensive line covered, but it's quarterback. And golf is showing that he's competent.

enough. You know, wide receiver, which they're set at. And then on defense, it's like, okay, do you have a dominant defensive end, which they might with Hutchinson? And then do you have a really good corner, which now that, you know, Okuda is starting to play really well. People forget he was the number three overall pick in the NFL draft was really poor at first, which you see with rookies, then he got hurt. He's starting to come into his own. So if he continues to develop, you know, and then you got these other young pieces around them. Yeah, the lions are the lines might actually be respectable coming up here in the next couple of years. I don't plan on watching a second of this game,

but I know you're picking a side, so tell us about, sell us on Jacksonville, Tennessee. I just, I took the four because Tennessee, I think it's going to have trouble winning with margin. I think Lawrence is going to play. Tennessee is just so banged up.

I don't think Berks is going to play, which means they can't throw it downfield. Jags have no secondary. They're pasty is horrendous, but the run-dees pretty good. Schematically, that's their defense is set up to shut down the run. Todd Bowles, disciple,

coaching up at D. And then on the, if you look at the Titans defense, it is decimated. I mean, DeNico Autry is out. Landry's already out. David Long, their linebacker. They have three starting secondary guys that are out. You saw that last week against the Eagles.

They just, they got a couple more guys got hurt and they couldn't stop anybody. You had Trey Avery, a couple of rookies on the outside trying to guard their receivers. So I just think Tennessee is really banged up here. And their offense without burks against. It's a decent run day. It's going to be hard to build margin. Divisional game. I'll take the four happily here.

This was trending towards three. Tick back up because the reports came out that Lawrence didn't practice, but I think he's going to be fine to play. You know, I thought this week would be the time when we just kind of start ending the Giants, but that tie game kind of keeps them alive. So even if they lose this game, the next week is really the big game because they wouldn't go in with like back-to-back losses against Washington. But the Giants kind of are.

what they are. One thing you saw against Tennessee, I mean, certain quarterbacks and wide receivers just like have perfect chemistry. And clearly AJ and Jalen. I mean, we know it's been well documented. They've been friends for a long time, but holy shit. I mean, it's just those two guys. And honestly, Devonte Smith, obviously, with Jalen, Alabama, like those two guys are on the same page. I mean, that's just a pretty potent combination. It's in New York. I mean, I, I, you know better me. This isn't, they don't have to win this game. I mean, they're still alive. Seattle, right? And commanders, they're kind of fighting for

those last couple spots. But I don't know. I mean, is Philly right for an upset here? I mean, a little letdown game, you would probably say no, because these divisional games, especially in the NFC East, now that everyone's pretty competitive, you take pretty seriously. Seven points feels like a lot because the Giants, you know, throughout the season have been able to ugly up the game. But it's hard, man, for me to bet against the way Philly, like when they're on, this isn't a fair fight. It's just maybe Philly, you know, plays their C plus game and the game's a little uglier. And maybe we're talking 13, 13, you know, midway through the, you know, third quarter and they got a chance to, you know, cover.

And the final score ends up, you know, let's say 16 to 23 or something. And if you take the Giants plus seven, you're in good shape. Yeah, you hit the nail on the head. I do. The Giants are, they're well-coached team. They're able to ugly up these games. catching seven at home in a divisional game in December with a team that's, you know, alive, they'll always catch my attention.

I mean, if you blindly bet home dogs of seven or more in December or later in the history, well, not in the history, but since 1990, you're at 56%. So you're already ahead of the curve. And the Eagles, there's something about the Eagles. I don't know if it's because they're young, but this team just hasn't been the same on the road. I mean, they are destroying teams at home. but on the road, for what it's worth, since 2020, there's 7 and 16 against the spread.

That's the least profitable team in the NFL. That includes 1 and 6 against the spread against the NFC East. This year, it's like, you know, they beat the Lions by 3 to start the year. Granted, they were up by a lot, but the Lions weren't the same team. They beat the Cardinals only by 3. It beat the Texans by 12,

and 2917, the Texans were in that game. They beat the Colts by 1 the other week. So it's the offense. And for whatever reason, they haven't been the same team on the road this year. And if it's more of it, and I'm just selling high, it's like, you know, this team has one loss. Last week, they go out and they absolutely dominate Tennessee. And that's why I think we're getting the seven here. I don't think we would have gotten the seven, which is obviously a really important number.

And so I'm taking it. Giants can ugly up games. It's a huge game for them. And to, you know, to kind of hammer home the point of selling high on teams in the NFL in December or later over the past. 20 years, teams with a 90% plus win percentage are 25, 53, and 1 against the spread. That's 32%. When those teams play away from home, they're 8, 32, and 1 against the spread. That's 20%. It goes back to, okay, it's very rare for teams to win over 90% of their games in the NFL come December. But everyone wants to bet them, right? Who wants to fade them? So usually they're a little

inflated, which is why I think you're getting a seven here, which I'll take and hold money. knows. You know, talking about Minnesota being the two seed, kind of a little look ahead to the playoffs, is there going to be some value in a little upset city depending on who they play, Washington, Seattle, or New York? I mean, that, because you would imagine, what do you think, depending on the team, that line, five, six points at Minnesota team that's probably nine and eight, right, playing a team that's, I don't know, 14 and three.

You know, the line, or is the line going to reflect that actually Minnesota is more like an 11 win team than some 14 win powerhouse. Yeah, I mean, the thing is, Minnesota at home, they have one of the best home field advantage is in the NFL. Yeah, it's crazy. It's tough place to play. You hear the horn and you mention their offense.

And one of the reasons they do win, I got to give them credit for winning close games is like, you have a guy like Jefferson, like, just look at the Bills game. Yeah. Fourth and 18, let's just throwing up them and make a miraculous catch. But so they're still decent. They have an offense that,

then there's a reason they're good in the fourth quarter. And the bottom of the NFC is bad. So I don't, it's, they're projected right now to be playing the Seahawks, who we're, everyone is kind of seeing like, oh, they're not as good as we thought, or the Giants. Maybe Washington, I think Washington would be the team that Minnesota would want to avoid. They're on the outside looking in now. But we're Detroit.

If Detroit can somehow sneak up to that seven seed, they need to win this game and then get some help. But, yeah, the Seattle defense is trending in the wrong direction. I don't think the Giants have enough on offense. But if Washington gets in, they're playing a lot better with Heineke, and that defense can get after Cousins. I think they would be the dangerous seven seed. They would be the dangerous seventh seed that, like,

no one would really want to see, can ugly up a game. You saw what they did in Philadelphia. They just controlled the ball for almost the entire game. But the bottom of the NFC is pretty ugly. Yeah. But if Washington sneaks in or Detroit, these are the teams that aren't in there right now, I think they would be much more dangerous than Seattle or New York. So we'll see how it plays out over the next couple of weeks.

But you have to think that the Eagles and the Cowboys right now are head and shoulders above the rest. And then it's going to come down to 49ers, who I add above those two teams with Jimmy G. It's going to come down to, okay, let's see what Purdy can give them over the next couple. of weeks. A lot of its system with Shanahan, but, you know, Jimmy G. if you look statistically, was always way more effective than, you know, whatever was C.J. Bethard or all these backups that have been in there. So, you know, Purdy's a seventh round rookie. So we're going to find out a lot about the 49ers and they're sealing over the next couple of weeks. So, but those are the clear three. Well, the Niners play Tampa and Seattle in like a four-day stretch because they play next

Thursday night. So, I mean, we're going to, in a weird way, as crazy as it sounds, like, if the Niners were to screw up against Tampa or lose that game against Seattle, like Seattle has held surf. I mean, it's like Seattle's three games behind them. So the Niners did beat him earlier, but if they blow this game against Tampa, then we're to lose to Seattle, you'd look up in Seattle would be the three seed, you know, pretty quick, assuming they'd take care of business against Carolina, which, like you say, I mean, now Kenneth Walker's heard, he's been a big issue, I mean, a positive for them. And, you know, they're defense is clearly leaking oil.

You know, I mean, they're not exactly. If you want to know what the market thinks of the Seahawks, they are three and a half point home favorites this week against the Carolina Panthers. Do you think that's right for an upset right there, little Carolina coming in there? Yeah. Off a buy, right? Especially, yeah, off a buy. Get rid of Baker. I don't trust Sam Donald, but, um, that upgrade from Baker.

But yeah, the, the Panthers defense, they have really good secondary, really good corner and Jaycey Horn is playing as well as anybody. could take out one of their receivers. I'm like Kenneth Walker's hurt and everything starts that running game for Seattle and their defense is leaking oil. So yeah, I mean, there's a reason why they're only three and a half point home favorites.

They could go down there for sure. The NFC is going to be very interesting the rest of the way. Do you think Dallas is a lock to be favored in that first round game on the road assuming they played Tampa, that four or five game? Like Dallas would be on the road in Tampa. Would they be like minus one or minus two in that game?

Yeah. assuming assuming full health, yeah, the Cowboys are trending up. I mean, the Bucks, especially because in the NFL playoffs,

the actual public in the market can have a say because everyone is betting these games. Yeah. So public perception can matter and the amount of public money. I don't know. Who wants to bet the bucks right now,

like against what you've seen from the Cowboys? Like the bucks, I don't see them score in like the two-minute warning. And it's amazing what Brady can do just to turn on. are we need two touchdowns, but the team is just, the play calling is bad. And something, I mean, there's six and six with a plus, a minus two scoring margin on the year.

So they've been as average as can be. But then again, I don't know, it's a really good question because then you could just fall back on, well, it's Tom Brady and he's just got to win the game. Yeah. Which I'm sure is going to draw some money. And do you trust the, do you trust the Cowboys in a big spot? I mean, it's, yeah, now that you're saying it, maybe it's a, maybe it's a pick, a coin flip because, yeah, Brady still can still find.

You need one drive to win a game. I mean, still give me Brady. Well, Stucky, some good insight. Have a good weekend, win some money, and tell Will Levis goodbye. Absolutely. Good luck. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy,

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