The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Brady’s Big Mistake, Russ Aisle Grind, Rodgers Unleashed, Week 8 3 for the $$$

Episode Date: October 28, 2022

John reacts to the Bucs and Tom Brady taking the TNF L against the Ravens, and explains why it was a big mistake for Brady to push out Bruce Arians. He also discusses Russell Wilson running aisles on the flight to London, Aaron Rodgers not hesitating to publicly call out teammates, why Eagles GM Howie Roseman pivoting off Carson Wentz saved the franchise, and why Belichick shouldn’t hesitate to pull Mac Jones if he struggles. He also runs 3 Week 8 NFL games by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement on this week’s picks!  Subscribe NOW and follow Middlekauff and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content. It's always FanDuel for the best wagering action! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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How are we doing? Thursday night football just ended, fired up the microphone. I'm going to dive into that boy. TB 12. Going to be enjoying retirement here pretty soon because this bad boy is over. We will dive into the game. A lot of stuff going on. Russell Wilson high knees.

Aaron Rogers talking some shit about his teammates. Howie Roseman continues the wheel and deal. Then we'll go through some other nuggets as well as at John Middilcoff as the Instagram fire in those DMs. We will have a middlecoff mailback come out this weekend as well as you listen on Collins feed. Make sure you subscribe to Three and Out feed. Volumes YouTube channel, subscribe to that bad boy. You can listen to us on the AMP,

download the AMP app from Amazon. You can listen to all of our shows on there. And yeah, let's just dive into some football stuff. Let me tell you about my friends at Turtle Box. Turtle Box is the loudest, most portable and truly waterproof Bluetooth speaker on the market. Trust me, I'd know. Today, I was working middle of the day on Thursday, and I was like, you know what, I need some tunes. So I turned that thing on.

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fantastic. Go to turtleboxadio.com. That's turtlebox audio.com. Use the promo code John, I spell at J-O-H-N, and get $20 off your order as well as free shipping. Trust me, I cannot recommend Turtlebox enough. I tell all my friends, I tell obviously you guys, go get it right now. Turtlebox audio.com promo code John, $20 off your first order and free shipping. Let's start with, you know what's weird. is sometimes when a team loses, and usually you think like the story of the night is the victorious team. That's not the case here, especially when it involves Tom Brady. And I was thinking about it watching this Thursday night game going, this is kind of sad, right?

But it's actually a lot like the history of sports. Most of my life, older players, their career ended, and it didn't look great because physically they couldn't do it. anymore, right? And I think we have recent examples specifically in the NFL, right? I think most famously and it's weird because he won the Super Bowl, but that year that Peyton Manning won the Super Bowl

in 2016, I guess it happened in January or February in 2017, I went to a game that year. I watched him play live against the Oakland Raiders at the Coliseum. And a huge story that week was he'd never thrown a pick against Charles Woodson. And that game

he threw two interceptions. His arm barely worked. Either the next week or maybe two weeks later, he got benched. They claimed he was injured, and Brock Osweiler came in. He ended up playing at the end and they won the Super Bowl. But Peyton Manning, and I love Peyton Manning. I love

Peyton Manning. Was a shell of himself. It was difficult to watch unless you were like a Chief or a Raider fan. And then in recent examples, we have Drew Breeze. We have, you know, Peyton's brother Eli and Rothesberger last year, who physically just implode. It happens in baseball.

It happens in basketball. And what's weird with watching Tom Brady is physically like he's not falling apart. Like he's never been able to move. He can't run now. He looks, his arm strength looks as good as ever. Like he looks like Tom Brady. Yet his team just sucks.

And I get in arguments over and over and over again about middle cough. You just put Belichick on a pedestal. You just think he's so great. it was all Tom Brady. I'm like, now, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady were needed for each other. And they excelled and exceeded basically in the history of the league. No one's ever going to match that, right?

Six Super Bowl's, they went to nine. I don't know how many AFC championships they went to. They kicked everyone's ass for two decades. It was a combination. Like, in the NFL, I don't care how good you are, you need a good coach. You need help. You need good teammates. You need people around you.

What's happening to Tom Brady is not like Peyton Manning. It's not like the year Eli Manning. Remember his street got ended because they started Gino Smith. It's not like what we saw with Rothesberger. When Drew Brees, physically he still looks pretty good. If you put Tom Brady right now on the Buffalo Bills or the Kansas Chiefs, you know, they would win games. He's not like some negative.

But his team and his head coach are completely overmatched. And I thought about this like during the game. Now, I don't want credit for this because I don't deserve credit for this, but I did choose and pick the Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South. And if they beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, they will be in first place. Now, their coach got fired. They're playing with PJ Walker. So I don't, you know, this is not how I envisioned it happening.

But that just shows you where Tampa is. Like, this division is a joke. We kind of knew the division was a joke, but we at least thought Tampa, I don't know about you, but I thought Tampa was an 11-win team. They're 3-5. I mean, to get to 10 wins now, they've got to go 7-2 the rest of the season. Is that a 7-2 team over a 9-game stretch? I don't care who they're playing.

I don't see it. That, to me, looks like a 7-10 team at best. So Tom Brady, I think we all agree, and it's kind of been reported. This is going to be his last season in the NFL. He's clearly going through things off the field. And part of the reason I picked Carolina was because I've known a lot of people that have got divorced, mainly like my parents, friends. But I've actually had a few people now, you know, I'm 38 that have got divorced that are my age or a little bit older. And they usually are way happier once it ends.

But when they're going through it, especially if they're, you know, minimum have a home, have some kids. Like, it's a very stressful time. Whether your net worth is worth $100,000 or like the Jazeel and Tom worth hundreds of millions. It is a complicated situation. Even if you can't stand her, it's a pain in the ass. And there is a stress level and there is an energy suck, like an energy vampire that is taken out of you. And that's what I shorted.

And it, when you watch him, it's hard to be like, they're struggling because of his divorce or because of his off-the-field situation. But like the left witch, and we'll get into Ariens here in a second, Think about this. They lost to the Packers, they scored 12 points. They lost to the Steelers, they scored 18 points.

They lost to the Panthers last week. They scored three points. They lost this week. They scored 22. But really, the touchdown was under two minutes. Like, I'm not even counting that final touchdown. Like, they are struggling to score points. And people thought, and listen, Tom is liable and he holds accountability for this.

that Bruce Ariens, you know, was kind of the village idiot. He had kind of this Pete Carroll thing going. Like he had to go. Bruce Ariens was a problem. And I went, you know, I've never been around Bruce on a daily basis. And listen, any human being can wear on you. And obviously, even Belichick wore on Tom over the years, but they were winning. So whatever.

Ariens clearly wore on Tom and Tom was older and had come like LeBron James type power. in the organization so he could force him out. But when I went to the Wikipedia page, and I didn't necessarily need to do this because, you know, I followed the NFC West pretty closely. And the Arizona Cardinals sucked. I mean, they were a joke. And he got to hear and all they did was win.

His first year was in the heyday of Harbaugh and Pete Carroll. They didn't make the playoffs, but they went 10 and 6. And the year before that, when he took over for Chuck Pagano, when Chuck Pagano got cancer, that was a number that I had forgotten as the interim coach, he went nine and three. That was Luck's rookie year. And you forget the reason they got Andrew Luck,

they drafted number one overall. Like, Bruce Ariens can coach. Is he Mr. Working 20 hours a day and super buttoned up on everything? No. But check Bruce Ariens record. I did. It's 80, I think, and 48 in 1.

Like, he's good. He wins a lot of games. And that decision led by Tom Brady because nobody ever just random retires, like after free agency, has been a disaster. And I've said this over and over and over. This is not a personal attack on any of these people. I've met Tom Bowles.

I've spent time with Todd Bowles. I like Todd Bowles personally. He's clearly not a head coach. They're overwhelmed. They are getting dramatically worse than previous years. And just on the eye test, like it's just off. And we thought, well, Byron. left which he'll just now he has a lot more room Bruce Ariens won't be you know looking over his

shoulder won't be forced him to call plays maybe that's not a good thing maybe Bruce kind of knows what he's doing I watched the football life on Bruce Ariens last time I checked Rathusberger luck had a lot of success with a lot of different quarterbacks hell he went seven and nine when James Winston threw like 75 interceptions and I think sometimes and listen I don't blame Tom because that's what he believed. We always think that when we get a little juice, our ideas are the best ideas. And I don't care how big your ego is, how much success you have. Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Steve Jobs, let alone Bill Belichick, not every single one of their ideas is genius. And clearly this idea with Tom Brady that the Tampa Bay would be better off

with Bruce Ariens out of there. It's just false. I mean, we're watching it play out in real time. They are three and five. I say this all the time about Thursday night games. You don't get style points. This is not college football. No one cares if you're a good team and you win by 30 or you win by one.

The only thing that matters is when you are the home team on Thursday night, especially as the season goes. And we're now almost a Halloween. So basically to me, anytime after like, week three or four till the end of Thursday night football. If the home team, you just got to win it. Get home that night. It is a major success.

Tampa kind of got their ass kicked. And we'll get into Baltimore here in a second. They're not exactly playing the 07 paths or the 85 Bears or the 94-49ers. I mean, this Ravens team is probably like a 10 and 7, pretty average squad. And let's face it,

they kind of separated from as that game went. So this Tom Brady, Bruce Ariens, 4,7, out, Todd Bowles, Byron Leftwich in charge is a disaster. And in the history of my life, most elite athletes, even elite quarterbacks, it ends ugly. It ends ugly, right? Only so many guys go out on top like John Elway. And this is not ending ugly because Tom sucks. Like you watch him, he looks like Tom Brady, but his team sucks. And I didn't do the math. But as Tom When's the last time he had a losing record?

I mean, I don't think he ever has. Has Tom Brady ever had a losing record? Definitely in the Patriots, right? They win the Super Bowl is basically the second year. And I'm not counting his true rookie year because he wasn't starting quarterback. Since he became a starting quarterback. Second year, did they go 9 and 7? They missed the playoffs, 8 and 8.

Maybe they went 7 and 9. All he's done is won. Even the year he tore he's ACL and they missed the playoffs. They went 11 and 5 with Matt Castle. He goes to Tampa. He's won a couple times, right? won the Super Bowl, and then last year they lost in the second round to the L.A. Rams. Tom Brady's about to go like seven and ten.

That's how his career is going to end. Pretty fucking nuts when you really take a step back and think about it. For a guy that isn't some shell of himself, who, you know, like, for example, the 49ers would die to have on their squad right now. I mean, if you told me Tom Brady was the quarterback for Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers the rest of the season, you'd be like, oh, I'll make the playoffs easily. His team sucks. But he kind of dictated the terms. Like, sometimes you don't want to get involved in certain things.

And I don't necessarily blame Tom for having his opinion. But on this one, his opinion and his influence blew up in his face, which is kind of crazy. And then on the flip side, Baltimore, like, I'm watching this game. I actually just got a text from a buddy in the league. Like, I love to see Tom Brady struggling. I think a lot of people enjoy it. You know, when he kicks everyone's ass for two decades, people are rooting for you to struggle. And the Ravens is weird, right?

They're five and three. And I think, you know, I saw it come across the ticker that Jamar Chase, you know, hip injury, he's out for a substantial amount of time. Like that that is a major, major blow to Joe Burrow. I thought that Cincinnati, Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, they were really kind of gaining some swagger. They were coming. They looked like an 11-12 win team.

You removed Jamar Chase. Let's just pick a month. That's best case. Like, that's a problem. any game that Jamar Chase doesn't play for them is a major, major blow for the Bengals. But is there a division any good? The Browns suck.

The Steelers suck. The Ravens in theory should be like they're equal or the team battling with them to win the division. And obviously if you remove Chase for, let's just worst case scenario say never comes back, that would be, yeah, they should not win the division. But I'm watching the Ravens tonight. And I got to be careful with making like major judgments

on a Thursday night game. especially a road team. But are they any good? I watch them, I go, are they really that good? They're kickers unreal. And Al Michaels brought this up. He's like, Justin Tucker is a Hall of Famer. Well, yeah, no shit.

Justin Tucker, one million percent is a Hall of Famer. He is not going to be the most accomplished kicker of all time. Adam Vinatari will never be eclipsed. But in no world is Adam Vinotary a more talented player. And if you put Justin Tucker's entire. career with Tom Brady and then Peyton Manning in his prime, you would have seen Adam Vinutari on steroids. So Lamar Jackson is their best player, but like, is the Raven's second best player their kicker?

Because I'm watching their team going, well, got some good running backs, receiving, I don't not really sure what's going on. I like Mark Andrews. He got banged up. Their defense in theory should be pretty good. You know, it's probably not as good as it should be as it was under Wink Martindale. They're going to end up winning 10 or 11 games, but they're not beating the Chiefs or the Bills. Like, it's pretty clear.

The AFC is a two-horse race. The Chiefs and the Bills. Who else is in their world? Now, if you wanted to make the argument, if you were a Bengals fan, like, we played the Chiefs last year at Arrowhood and we meet them. And we beat them. I'd be like, yeah, you're right. Jamar Chase is going to be healthy? Because Jamar Chase is healthy.

Then, yeah, I'd give you a fighting chance. You got Joe Burrow, you got some talent to hang with one of those two teams if you got lightning in a bottle. But if you tell me he is compromised, like, I'm sorry. And if you tell me he's compromised, like, you and the Ravens are basically the same. Two teams that I don't view close to as equals. We don't take the Chargers seriously. You know, who else do we take? We don't take the Titans, even though they're going to win the division seriously.

So it's the AFC is the Bills and the Chiefs, and then an enormous drop-off, and then whoever the hell else makes the playoffs. Titans, Ravens, Bengals, goal. Like, you guys are just kind of participants. You're just there. And I had some people texting me. Actually, one buddy's like,

do you think there's a chance that Lamar Jackson loses money on this contract? Because you watch him tonight, you go, God, you know, he's somewhat hit or miss. Now, part of it is their talent, wide receiver is, you know, not great, even though tonight they were like, Deshawn Jackson, he's been working out.

Sean Jackson. Like, that's who you guys are kind of putting your hopes on. give me a break. But now, if Lamar Jackson at any moment in the offseason, he's going to be like, I'm never playing for you again. If you don't pay me $200 million, trade me, someone to pay him $200 million. There are so many teams and need quarterbacks, and he's still very dynamic. His throwing is a little hit or miss. It's not really debatable. And when Mark Andrews is not in the game, and Mark Andrews, you know, beside like, obviously Kelsey, then Kittle, Waller is nowhere to be found.

Mark Andrews is elite. But when Mark Andrews is the lead. but when Mark Andrews is MIA, it is a major, major red flag for Lamar Jackson. So he is not, like I like Lamar Jackson, and I was someone who was not a fan. I support the guy because I always support

high-level people. And I know a couple people with the Ravens, they fucking love him. Because of the guy he is, because of his team, like first, just nature, the way his teammates gravitate to her, I'm a Lamar Jackson fan.

But he's got some flaws. He has some serious flaws as a passer. But he is a fantastic football player. And I like going to war with football players. The problem, if you put Lamar Jackson in the NFC and you'd have to go through the Staffords and the Kyler's and the Dax, I'd go, yeah, he could beat any of them. He could win Jalen Hertz.

He could win the NFC. The problem in the AFC, you got to beat Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and he ain't doing it. And that team ain't doing it. They're just not as good as I thought they would be. I thought they were going to be a power. And they're just simply not.

They're not even remotely as good as I thought. I thought they, honestly, when the seasons are, to be a 13-win team. I mean, this is a team that's probably going to get to like 10, 11, 11 max. They definitely have some issues. But listen, they are a consistent winner now, mainly because of Lamar Jackson. Football season is underway. So now is the perfect time to download FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Because right now, new customers get a no-swet first bet

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1-800-5-2-2-4700. Wyoming. Visit www.w800-Gambler.net, West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions,

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Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok. Talk Podcast Network on TikTok. Let's start with, you know, Mr. Unlimited, Mr. Danger Witch. And don't get me wrong, I love a good chicken terriaki hot on a, on flat bread at Subway, baked, lays, chips, barbecue. But I can also go with sour cream and onion as well as the chocolate chip cookies at Subway, our elite, not going to lie.

But Russell Wilson, they fly to London. You've all probably seen this by now. He said a couple weeks ago that he had Wolverine blood, that he just heals faster. We all know where we stand on Russell Wilson, the cheesiness. Now, one thing I will defend him overall because I believe me personally, I know it works, is being an optimistic person. So his optimistic side, it's never really bothered me. It's more the cheesiness.

Now, I would imagine a lot of people listening to this have never been to a press conference, like an NFL press conference when a coach or a quarterback talks, right? typically just the Big J journals and then randomly guys like me end up there every once in a while. I've been to a lot of these. And a lot of times the comments that go viral aren't necessarily, you know, it's not like they just impromptu start talking about it. A lot of times they're asked about it because a reporter and typically the Big Js have a story that they want to write about so they are trying to get an answer out of them.

So I don't know. My guess is he was asked about what he did on the plane. And obviously we've all seen it from high knees. When I'm saying high knees, I think he's not running. He's stretching as he's walking down the hallway, pulling his knees high, the unlimited film watching and yoga that he's doing on the plane when literally everyone sleeps. And listen, I was thinking a lot about this. Like when you first start a job, like I was thinking when I first got to the job with the

Eagles or first got the job in radio, when you start at ground zero, you, you have to separate from the pack. So you have to be early, stay late, go above and beyond, do stuff you're not even asked to do, do stuff that definitely your salary or whatever they're paying you does not equal. Part of the deal. It's the way you separate, right? No different than like an undrafted free agent at training camp. He has not held to the same standard as like George Kittle or Travis Kelsey.

If I want to make the team, I better go above and beyond to impress people. That's just basic knowledge, right? when you're trying to break in somewhere, whether you're an NFL player, whether you're in finance, whether you're in podcasting, whatever you're in, you have to go above and beyond, not for money. You have to impress the hierarchy of the company, of your bosses, of the people you're working for. Welcome to capitalism. Now, once you make it, once you become the head coach, once you become the CEO, once you become the vice president, once you become whatever and being highly compensated, no one cares what time you leave or what time you go home, what time your alarm goes off, what time you do whatever.

The expectation is just that. Produce. So when I pay a CEO, the company better boom. When I pay a quarterback 45 million, you better dominate. That's the price of admission. Like I would love to know Paid Manning and Tom Brady's daily schedule. They don't go talking about it. Why? Because they understand, like, you don't get extra credit for studying long.

Honestly, when you're the CEO, when you're the head coach, when you're the head coach, you only get shit for not working hard. Why did everyone crush Kyler Murray when he got $45 million? We go, wait, you're going to get $45 million to a guy that we don't even know likes football and doesn't put in the time? That's insane. The price of admission for big boy jobs in this country, whether it's a starting quarterback, whether it's a head coach, whether it's a CEO of a bank,

whatever, is be a grinder. You don't get to work three-hour days and play golf four days a week. That ain't the job. And if you do, I saw a funny tweet yesterday of Doc Rivers. Basically how he plays golf every day. The Sixers are getting their ass kicked and everyone's making fun. Like, is Doc Rivers really a grinder? And I'm a Doc Rivers guy, but it is not going well.

So Russell Wilson, you know, it's weird. Like, is he trying to brag? I don't know. I just, I don't really care that much about, the whole Russell trying to figure him out. I just know he's a little cheesy for my taste. But when you start bragging about how hard you're working, think about this.

That entire plane is full of the highest achievers at their profession. Like the coaching staff, everyone in the NFL, the majority of coaches are grinders. Think about the majority of players. Think about some of the guys on that team specifically. You think Jerry Judy made it in the NFL without being a grinder playing for Sabin? You think Patrick Sertan, who might be the best cornerback

is just like showing up, practice, going home, eating McDonald's, watching TV. Of course not. These guys are all grinding. Yet on the plane, because that's what most people do when they're flying to London,

is they're snoozing. They're taking a nap. So him basically saying that I'm doing all this, the entire plane is knocked out. It's like, how can anyone on that team take him seriously? If every day Tom Brady bragged about how much harder he was working than everyone on the Bucks or everyone on the Patriots,

people would kind of zone him out. Of course, more than likely, he is putting in more time than everyone on the team. Maybe not this year, but historically. Same thing with Peyton, same thing with Drew Brees. They don't talk about it. You notice head coaches, Belichick, Andy, Sean Payton, Sean McVeigh, Kyle Shannon,

they don't brag about what time they get up. Guess what? Most of them are getting up between like 4.30 and 5. They're up while the masses are sound asleep. because it's just part of the, it's part of the expectation. It's part of why they make $15 million. So one problem for Russell Wilson, regardless of just the cheesiness

and the kind of the BS optimism when things aren't going well, when you start doing stuff like this, when you're not playing good, this to me is when people tune you out. Obviously, the internet is making fun of them. But to me it's more about like, are his teammates going to turn on them?

Like, if I was a guard, and I'm a starting guard in the NFL for the Denver Broncos. And I'm a solid player. And I do everything humanly possible to keep my spot, keep making my three or four million dollars because it's an incredible job. And he just keeps talking like this. I'd be like, I just, I can't take you that seriously. And it's one thing, if you're really good at whatever you do and I don't take you seriously,

if I'm a partner with you or I'm in business with you, I know that I just have to figure out a way to deal with you because you're in an indirect or a direct way. going to make me money and make me more successful. Well, Russell Wilson right now has been a big reason they're not being successful. Imagine all those guys on defense. Every single week, they're kicking the shit out of people. Last week, they just lost a game. Now, granted, he didn't play. 16 to 9. Like, all they're doing on a weekly basis is making place. And they got this guy, like, I'm sorry. I've been out on Russell. I'm not a believer that he's going to have some storming comeback. But I think this type stuff is, I mean, legitimately, when he starts,

it's jumping the shark. On the flip side, Aaron Rogers, who, you know, a lot of people are giving a lot of crap to because after the last game, he crushed a lot of people. He said, people need to figure it out. People basically, this is not verbatim, need to work harder. People need to get focused, the details. And then he told McAfee, when asked about himself, that the quarterback coach told him last week against the commanders that he had the highest grade of the season.

So I understand when you say that everyone else needs to get their shit together, and yet the coaches told me I'm playing as well as possible. I understand where people are like, give me a break, Aaron. And ideally, if I'm Aaron Rogers, I probably leave that part out, even though the entire team knows the grades of the individual players. But my take is on Aaron Rogers, what he said. First and foremost, right or wrong, he makes $50 million a reason, for a reason. He's the back-to-back MVP.

He's probably the best player in the history of the franchise. He views himself as an evening. equal with the coaching staff. Now, I know a lot of people think that Matt LaFleur is not like he doesn't hold guys accountable or I've seen some of that. Like Aaron had to take the role that Matt won't take crushing guys publicly. And I don't know Matt LaFleur personally, but I went to Tennessee Titans practice years ago. I was out in Nashville for a bachelor party and I went a week early because I was going to play some golf. And, you know, knowing John Robinson, I actually We had him on this podcast, and I went to a Titans OTA practice.

And I'm pretty sure that was Braybill's first season. And his offensive coordinator was LaFleur, who was coming from the Rams. And I vividly remember LaFleur, Marieto was the quarterback. You know, Derek Henry was on the team, Dion Lewis. They had Corey Davis. He was lighting guys up. I was pretty impressed. I'm not saying he was Bill Parcells out there, but he was getting into dudes,

dropping F-bomb, screaming a guy. I came away, and you can never judge. anyone strictly off a non-padded practice. But I thought his operation and in terms of his intensity was pretty impressive. So just because a guy acts one way behind a microphone and the way he's in front of his team, you never know with that. But I believe that Aaron Rogers views himself like a coach and views himself like, I think he's desperate because they've been getting their ass kicked.

They've just lost to the commanders, the giants, and the jets. Like, I'm sorry, that's not ideal when you're the Green Bay Packers and won 39 games the last three years. Like, that's every single human alive. Literally every single human alive, including myself, pick them before the season. If you were going to go wins and losses, even if you had the Packers as like a 10-win team, you would have picked them to beat the Jets, you would have picked them to beat the Giants, and you definitely would have picked them to beat the commanders. And I think Rogers probably like the coaching staff, is worried that this season's going to get away.

from. So when he's crushing these guys publicly, I would imagine he's tried to talk to them one-on-one. He's tried to do stuff and it ain't working. Like this notion that he's not a good leader, he's a bad leader, I don't know. I've never spent time around him in a football building. But I do think he, the last couple of years, it seems like he's tried to be a better teammate and it worked. And now that they're not having success, like if your fastball's not working and you're a fastball pitcher, like eventually you got to throw a slider or a change up. And I think that's what he's trying to do because let's face it. They get their ass kick this week in Buffalo, which they're an enormous favorite, the biggest, or an enormous underdog, the biggest underdog of

Aaron Rogers' career. Like this guy hasn't been playing the league for five years. This guy's been the starter since 08. It's a long fucking time. Biggest underdog of his career. Now, granted, he's played on a lot of good teams. I thought this team was going to be pretty solid. It clearly is not. And now they're in some trouble. And sometimes, like I said, you're fastballing up, not working. And then all of a sudden you throw a change. Like, what else are you going to do? this is a pitch that he's probably not used to throwing. He's usually not publicly crushing guys. You can say he's passive-aggressive or what,

but I think he's all out of ideas, and this is kind of like a last-ditch Hail Mary. And then there's Howie Roseman, who just made a trade to acquire Quinn, the past rusher, from the Chicago Bears who'd been on the L.A. ramp, a good player. I mean, this guy, he's not having a great season, but obviously the bear is somewhat in shambles.

And what really stuck out to me is I was, I heard this quote the other day, a couple weeks ago on the all-in podcast. It's the podcast with the four venture capitalists. They talk a lot of business, a lot of politics, a lot of different stuff. And they're all, you know, some of them are richer than others. I mean, I would imagine the minimum net worth of the lowest net worth of the individual on the podcast, like $500 million. They're all really successful guys. And he had this quote, one of them, that said fortunes are made in recessions. and collected in the booms.

I started thinking, like, it's well known, right? Most people, they buy cheap and then they sell high, right? But when you really just take a step back, like a lot of money, people got rich in 07 and 08. Why? We fucking bottomed out. Well, what happens when things bottom out? Stocks, real estate, companies, whatever, I get to buy it for cheaper. Well, eventually, more than likely, a lot of things go back up.

So when times are really bad, if you, make good decisions, whatever your profession is, that's where you really benefit five, 10 years in the future. But no one wants to do that. It's why like in 2015, there were a million people like, I should have bought this, I should have done that. Well, the world's full of what it could have should us. There are only so many doers, right? Tony Robbins always has the quote, Wall Street is the one place in America. When things go on sale, people run. And I think the Eagles are a great example of that fucking thing could have blown up. And it was right in front of our eyes. They had drafted Carson Wentz number two overall. And then they had doubled down

and they invested so much money into them. And it started going off the rails. They benched them. But guess what happens when they benched them? Six months previously, they had drafted a quarterback in the second round. We all thought they were nuts. We're like, what are you doing? probably the smartest thing they'd ever done. And then when they got really crappy, Howie was constantly making moves. Like two years ago, when he traded from pick six to 12

to acquire a first round pick. And that, he ended up getting Devante Smith. And then he did it again last year when he made a trade with the Saints, who now looked like they might be drafting in the top five. And as things were getting crappy, he was making moves like trading back,

acquiring future first round picks, getting Devante Smith, getting Landon Dickerson, signing guys or trading for Darius Lay, making a trade last year for A.J. Brown. But the reason he was in position with that stuff is because when things got ugly in like 19 and 20, he didn't just blow the thing up. He pivoted and made long-term moves and long-term in the NFL is like two or three years. And now they are really reaping the benefits. And now, like, how he bought low in the recession. he made a bunch of smart moves.

And then a couple years later, his team's fucking undefeated, absolutely stocked. And they're not looking for three or four pieces. They're just missing a piece or two. So you trade a fourth round pick, which let's face it, means nothing to the Eagles right now

to get a pass rusher who could be the difference in you winning the division, you getting over the top, you being a 15 and 2 number one seed that is going to be very, very tough to beat. And they're in position right now. Most teams, and I wouldn't have blame them at all,

had just tried to bottom out. And listen, I've known Howie for a long time, but I just know the ethos of that organization is not to truly suck. They're not into like bottoming out. Now, you can argue, well, what happened that last game when they brought in Sudfield? Well, yeah, that was week 17 or 18.

Whatever, I guess it would have been 17, three years ago, right? But like, they never go into a season like, we'll just really suck and hope to get a Victor Wembea. Like, that's just not how they think. They're always thinking, about adding sweet players. And the Carson Wentz thing is the greatest example because imagine that they traded that guy

for a first round pick. Think about the difference between them and the Colts. The Colts are always caught in no man's land when it comes to quarterbacks. Always. It's just like they're desperate. They actually got kind of lucky the year Philip Rivers was available.

And then they make the trade for Carson Wentz. That's blown up in their face. Then they make the trade for Matt Ryan. That blows up in their face. Eagles, boom. Just draft a guy in the second round. Replaces a guy that they drafted number two over. overall as they were building pieces around on their team.

So then when Jalen Hertz actually hits and don't get me wrong, I never thought he would, but he kind of did. Now their team's sweet and they look like, you know, I don't know, 14 win type squad. It's because when things got ugly, he kept making moves and now he's really reaping the benefits. A couple other thoughts. The Chiefs trade for Tony, the wide receiver from the New York Giants, who was a very, very questionable draft pick when. Dave Gettelman made it.

I think he took him 20th overall. Now, that trade ultimately led them to having multiple picks because remember, they went from 11 to 20 with the trade with the Chicago Bears that netted the Bears, Justin Fields. But this kid's been a major bus for New York. One thing he gives them, the Chiefs. Now, his character also, like, you know, this is where when you have a high-level organization led by really strong, good people, like the Chiefs, their two team captains are Travis else seen Patrick Mahomes.

Like, what are you going to do? Come in there and act like a slap dick? Like, that ain't happening. It's much easier with the giants who have been losing the last couple of years for a questionable character guy to act bad or not shape in. It's impossible when you're a low-level guy to survive with high-level guys. They will eat you alive. If you're a low-level guy and you go to the Golden State Warriors,

you either shape in or they get rid of you. If you're a low-level guy, you go to the Kansas Chiefs, you either shape in or they'll get rid of you. So, yeah, they paid not nothing, right, a conditional third round pick. This guy is a big time talent, and he can really stretch the field. And when you watch the Kansas Chiefs and I watched every snap they played last week, that's really kind of what they're lacking. This Pacheco kid, their running back, pretty damn good.

Their screen game with all their other running backs, always going to be awesome. Kelsey, best tied in the league. Juju, then sweet for them. But they just don't have a guy who truly pushes with a speed element down the field. So this is worth the risk. And Andy has a long history of dealing with these type guys. And like I said, like, what's he going to do? Act like an idiot.

They'll just get rid of them. Mac Jones. I was shocked to see all the reaction that, like, Bill did wrong by Mac Jones. Honestly, like, who the fuck is Mac Jones? Just because he was drafted 15th overall, he has not played well. He didn't play well at the end of last year. and this year when he's been on the field, he has been awful.

So last week, when he threw that interception, now it might have hit the rope, right, that's holding the camera, even if it didn't hit the, it's not a rope, it's a wire,

whatever. Like, what are you doing, Max, scrambling around like your Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes? Your Kirk Cousins,

bro, play within the pocket. Throw the ball away. Take a fucking sack. You're not Lamar Jackson. So when he went to the bullpen, And everyone's like, why is he yanking around quarterbacks? Like I've said, he's dealing with two backup quarterbacks. Now, is Mack better than Bailey?

More than likely, yes. Right? One guy, Alabama, the other guy, Western Kentucky. You know, I would bet just in a vacuum, if they all went to all 32 teams, Mack Jones more than likely would turn out to be the better player. Though, you know, who knows? But I have no problem with going to the bullpen. And I would look forward it again.

If I'm in a tight game against the Jets, who just lost their star running back and their star offensive linemen, and it's 10 to 10 and Mac is not playing well. I would go to the bullpen without hesitation. And you can go, well, John, if you got two quarterbacks, you don't have one. Well, yeah, no shit. They got two quarterbacks. Unless Mac Jones gets his swaggerback, which I would argue never really had,

like they do have two quarterbacks. They got two backup ones. And you just ultimately got to pick the best one and figure it out on the fly. And if Mac's going to play bad, I support Belichick for, I also got a DM and I get some sometimes, like, did Belichick's really? overrated. And I go, he won 11 games with Mac Jones. And someone hit me back up like, look who he beat. I don't care who he beats. How many coaches in the NFL, now, granted, you can question his ability as a GM. His roster is not great, and he's the guy picking all

the players. But last year, with that roster to win 11 games, how many coaches could? Andy Reed, Sean Payton, that might be it. I'm Belichick's big time. And he's going to win nine or 10 this year with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappy. I'm sorry, it's pretty impressive. is he more important than Tom? Like obviously Tom is not replaceable, but let's not act like Tom didn't benefit from Bill to. I just, I think too many people love just bearing Belichick,

now that Tom's gone. Like, does Bill have some faults? Is he a negative Nancy and a miserable prick a lot of the times? For sure. Does the guy, you know, one of the best coaches we've ever seen any sport, and I would argue the best NFL coach? I, listen, I feel pretty good about my stance on that.

Ryan Tanny Hill's banged up, hasn't been practicing all week. It'd be pretty interesting if Malik Willis plays for the Titans. This is why you draft guys in the middle rounds, the third, fourth, fifth round. Look at Bailey Zappy. What if the Patriots had not drafted Bailey Zappy? They'd be playing with Brian Hoyer. Who the hell wants to see Brian Hoyer play? So props to Robinson and Brable for drafting this guy,

because otherwise they just have some random scrub backup that you'd be trying to replace the end of the year anyway. And last but not least, I'm sure you guys have all seen the story on, you know, obviously Elon officially bought Twitter, and it went viral of the Twitter employees with this list of all these demands. It's like, guys, your stock has been a dog for a decade. Your company's in fucking shambles. If anything, you should just stay quiet, try to impress the guy.

But one of the things in the document the Twitter employee said was they want to keep working from home. Well, of course you do. But what if Elon wants you to come into the office? your ass better be in the office. Not everyone gets to operate on the save wavelength. If Tom Brady wants to take 11 days off during training camp, is it weird? Yes. But if Tom Brady wants to, do you know what you say?

Would you know what you say if you're the head coach of the GM? See you in 12 days, Tom. Have a good break. Right? Like, not everyone gets to operate from the same standards. So Elijah Moore, the wide receiver from the Jets, who, from all accounts, I remember texting with someone with the Jets last year. They're like, he's a really good player.

we love the guy, he's a high-level guy. Then this year he starts bitching him on about his targets. Well, Elijah, you guys are throwing for 100 yards a game. So no one's really getting any targets. And two, for him to demand a trade reminded me a little bit of the Twitter employees. Like if Justin Jefferson wants to demand a trade, if Devante Adams wants to demand a trade, okay.

You know, if Tyree kills like, you got to trade me if you're not going to pay me. I get it. Like Elijah Moore, news for you. No one gives a flying fuck what you think. Like, just do work starts at 5.30 or 6 or 8 or whenever on Monday. We'll see you there. Like, stop demanding trades. Like, who do you think you are?

This lost sense sometimes guys have, like, I just don't get it. Just because you see, like, NBA players on Twitter demanding trades. Like, Twitter, employee. Like, you don't get just work from home forever. Well, if the company wants you to show up, you show up. Or else you're not making $350 grand anymore, doing nothing. Like, Elijah, you're getting paid a decent amount of money being a high second round pick.

Like, you got to prove something. No one's seen you really do anything. So to demand a trade, honestly, I thought was pretty embarrassing and a pretty terrible look. And props to the Jets for telling you like, yeah, bro, practices at 7.30 Tuesday. Be there, be square, buddy. Talk to you later. So I think the Jets are really making strides of becoming a little bit of a higher

level organization. But some of these guys, you know, not every trade demand is equal. You know, it's just not. It makes you laugh. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement

to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations,

stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok. Talk Podcast Network on TikTok. Here with my main man Stucky, who, you know, I don't want to say got screwed in the Giants Jacksonville game, but, you know, took a goal line stop, or he would have won that bad boy.

So he's 15 and 11. You can find him on the Action Network, Action Network podcast on Thursdays, big bets on campus, find him on Twitter, tweeting nonstop over the weekend, gambling, extraordinaire. 15 and 11. And how are you feeling, Stucky? Good. It was my first bad weekend of the season. Those will happen. It's been a really good year. But it's the NFL. Who cares? It's a week-to-week league league.

And it's just like it's a week-to-week playing. It's a week-league betting. And it's on to the next. I actually was more mad about, I know it was more Giants Magic in the fourth quarter, but I actually was more mad about losing the Zach Wilson on the road, who had one of the worst offensive games. games of the season. I think the Jets had 10 first downs, like 200 total yards. They did nothing. They had one run. Brees Hall broke run. But Brees Hall got hurt. They had an offense slam. I got hurt. And I trusted Brett Rippin. And I probably shouldn't have. Jet special teams were

really good. Brett Rippen made the key mistake. Zach Wilson didn't. Although he tried to throw the ball, like in the air that Denver returned for a touchdown that got reviewed. So yeah, I shouldn't have trusted Brett Rippin. But it's on to week eight. And we're getting in the heart of the NFL season. It's going to be fun. The NFC is a dumpster fire. You could have, I think I tweeted so yesterday, you could have by the end of this weekend, unlikely, but it could happen. The Panthers could be in sole possession of first place. The Vikings, the Giants, I mean, and the Seahawks. Like, what is going on in the NFC? It's wild times. I'm a little surprised, you know, you sent me your three games this week

that the old Zappy Mac Jones Belichick combo, you're not hammering them this weekend against the Jets because the Jets, obviously they've won five games and we've gone over. I mean, the quarterbacks are beating. Add another one to the list, Brett Rippin, which I would imagine most people listening, unless you watch that and they talked about it,

could not tell you where he went to college. But the Jets, like, obviously they got some talented players. I mean, they just lost two of their best players. And literally the way they, the only way, way they can win is by him throwing, you know, around 100 yards, not turning the ball over, and running the football and obviously playing defense. Now, their defense is still going to be solid, but lose Breece Hall, who is a star, star would be strong. But, I mean, he had a chance to be in an offensive lineman who's a fucking stud. I mean, that's, that is a major blow. I think the

Jets are fucked. And I love the Patriots this weekend. Yeah, I played the Patriots. They just, I mean, I just didn't include them in my three from the show. But yeah, they would have been next. they've won 12 straight this year's Belichick owns the Jets. But you get nervous with the quarterback situation with the Zappy Mac Jones thing going? Yeah, it makes me little nervous. Like who's taking all the reps? And if Mac Jones starts, like he's, you know, Zappies, he played two of the worst. I'm a huge Zappy guy.

I've been a huge Zappy guy since his Houston Baptist days. But he's still a rookie. He's going to have some struggles. He got to play two of the worst defenses in the NFL. He's going to have some struggles. And then Mac Jones, so I expect to get his job back, or at least, you know, get a shot at it. He's going to have some rust and he didn't really get to play much last week and he's been out for a while. So, but yeah, this is, I played the Patriots here. Zach Wilson has been

all the Jets have done is beat backup quarterbacks, third string quarterbacks. Like, the only two real teams that they faced were the Ravens and the Bengals and they got blown out in both. Zach Wilson's out 35th out of 36, six quarterbacks in the NFL. If you look at like EPA completion percentage over expectation composite, only Baker Mayfield has been worse this year. He's horrible. And I'll give you a stat if you're looking for a reason to bet the Patriots here under a field goal. Belichick, and this is the only other times I bet the Patriots this year, and it's worked. So it's not just a Brady stat. Belichick is 39, 7 and 1 against the spread after a loss as a dog or a favorite of under a touchdown. That's 84.1%.

on the road. So if he's on the road after a straight up loss, he's 26, 3, and 1 against the spread. Buddy. As either an underdog or favorite under a touchdown, that's 89.7% covering by 10 points per game, 2 and 0 this year in that spot. Yeah, I think the Robert Solow,

Zach Wilson Magic's going to come to a screeching hall. Okay, let's dive into the weekends late. You know, the Lions, who I was very bullish on and shit, it might have been hard knocks. I don't know. You watch them and just obviously something's off. Goff, you know, at any moment, can just throw the ball to the other team.

Their defense, who actually played pretty well for a large percentage of that game against Cowboys, was not the problem, but has been the problem. Miami coming in, I mean, they're a big dog at home. Now, he did get your classic, like, the owner. Did you see come out and support Dan Campbell? Which is always a positive, I guess. But I don't know.

I have zero trust in Tua. Though, like I've said over and over, I've been shocked by how hard Tyreeks playing, waddles a stud. They do have good players, but it seems like the dolphins are losing a lot of players on defense. So maybe this is the time Detroit gets a win. Should, I guess I would lean Detroit.

I probably would not touch this game. How about you? Yeah, I play the lines since I could get three and a half. Anything over three, I think, is a good play here. I think the market's finally falling out of love. love with the lines. But if you dig a little deeper, early in the year, they lost by three at home to Philly. You know, they scored a little late. But they, you know, they beat, they put up 35 in that game. They put up 36 at home against Washington to win the next week. They should have won at Minnesota,

the following, they lose on two late touchdowns. Then they play Seattle at home lose 48 to 45. That doesn't look as bad now. But again, they put up 45 points. They go on the road to New England, a bad spot. Jared Gough outdoors has always been bad. And they, get blown out. Then they have a buy. They come back. Their defense looks a lot better, and they started playing a couple of rookies. They put Josh Pascal in. This Kirby Joseph at safety's playing well. Malcolm Rodriguez is a linebacker. Hutchinson has best day as a pro, and then Akuta did as well at corner. So I think their defense might be trending up a little bit. But that game was closer in the final score too. I mean, that game was tight. Dallas going in to take the lead in the beginning

of the fourth quarter, first and goal at the one fumbles the ball. Despite, you know, losing the turnover about I think five nothing. The yardage was even in that game. They still have a great offensive line. And guess what? The past couple weeks, Detroit has been playing without DeAndre Swift and Amon Rae St. Brown. They're two most important players on offense. Last week, Swift was out. He's in this week. And St. Brown was ruled out. He was spotted for a concussion, which he ultimately didn't have on the first series. So he went out for the game. That's a massive loss. So they'll have their full strength offense or close to it, their most important players playing here. And then you have a really good offensive line against a Miami secondary that's decimated by injury.

I mean, Byron Jones on the pub list, Nick Needham, Trill Williams, Brandon Jones. Their fourth and fifth corners are hurt. Zavion Howard's playing hurt. It's just a mess. So I think that Gough at home with his full complement of weapons can move the ball as the lines have done at home all season when they've had Brown and Swift. And then if you look at the Dolphins offense, it's like, you know, yes, I love the additions of Waddle and Hill, what they're doing in this offense. But they've, in four or five, Tua starts,

they haven't surpassed 21 total points. There's, you know, they had that explosion in the fourth quarter against the Ravens, but there's something just still off. And I'm not as big of a believer of some in Tua as you are as well. So yeah, I think this is a good spot to get the lions when everyone's kind of selling them at home and they get their most important pieces back. And I think their defense is going to be trending up a little bit with these young pieces getting in playing time. You're right. If you just watch like a series, you know, Moser's flying around, Tyreek Waddle, they look better than the overall result of. It's not like they're averaging 30 points a game.

You know, they struggle to get 20 plus. You know, you sent me Arizona, Minnesota, and it just hit me. usually when you come off a buy, a big advantage you have is getting a team that just played the previous week. Arizona played on Thursday. So that's kind of that mini buy, which is, you know,

and on top of that, they, you know, I don't know if he's their best, yeah, he probably their best player, DeAndre Hopkins, back off suspension. So he gets, you know,

another week to acclimate in. Minnesota's secondary stinks. I mean, they haven't been good now in years. And listen, I am not a Kyler guy, but like fucking, You give him Hopkins, he does look kind of like a, you know, a much more explosive.

I don't know if he's quite a $45 million player with Hopkins, but he's, he's much better and he's much scarier to play that they are just kind of built to to play inside. I mean, this is, I thought I wouldn't like this game. But, yeah, I'm Arizona plus three and a half, I guess would be my side. Yeah. Arizona plus three. If anything over a field goal here, I like, I like, And you're right. Minnesota's coming off a buy. For what it's worth, Cousins has been bad off-bys and off-extend to rest this whole career.

Maybe meaningless, but... Do you think that's an unfair advantage when you're coming off a buy and you get the team that just play a Thursday night game? Yeah, for sure. That's like three extra days for them. Yeah, especially at home. And for what it's worth, this is Cliff Kingsbury, on the road, as an underdog is 15, 3 and 2 against the spread. That's 83%. He's won 8 straight outright on the road as an underdog. I don't know if they just are distracted at home

and they just aren't organized. I don't know what is going on, but they're awful at home, generally speaking, and very good on the road as an underdog. They've won eight straight outright as an underdog. And yeah, you mentioned it with Hopkins. Mary is 9 and 2 with Hopkins, completing 71% of his passes, 20 touchdowns, 9 picks, 275 yards per game.

Without him, he's 3 and 7, 64%, 11 touchdown, 6 picks, only 230 yards per game. The most telling stat is overall, with or without Mary. With Hopkins in the game, they have averaged 27 points in 27 games. With Hopkins, in 13 without them, 18. It's almost a 10-point drop-off.

You saw the different team made. It's noticeable to it. Yeah. He just opens up the office. He's a trustworthy third-down target. And, you know, his first game back, 10 catches, 100 yards, first time all season, Murray had a pass rating over 100.

And, yeah, the Arizona defense also, their metrics, I think, in the market are a little deflated because of that first game. When they played the Chiefs who are, you know, a juggernaut in offense, but they also were, the Arizona defense was depleted by injuries. They're missing, I think, five or six starters. If you, from week two on, you know, overall in the season, they're 20th and EPA per play on defense, if from week two on, they're ninth. So they've been a top ten defense. I think they're not a great defense, but their defense is not as bad as some of the metrics suggest. And I think the Vikings are a paper tiger. I mean, they're five and one, but they should have lost to the Lions, as I mentioned, dead even game.

The Saints, you know, with their backups in London, dead even game. The Bears, another one possession win, dead even game, 5.8 yards per play each way. And then Miami, they get out gained 458 to 234. The dolphins with their backup and third string average six and a half yards per play. The Vikings averaged four and a half. I mean, they got three turnovers and 100 penalty yards from the Dolphins. So this team has been, you know, beating, you know, some backup quarterbacks. They've been very fortunate in one possession games.

Yeah, Saints, Lions, Dolphins, and Bears, and the Dolphids are their wins. Their last four wins. So I think the Vikings are vulnerable here. Their defense, as you said, can be exploited. I think Arizona will. This is the spot to back cliff, Road Dog, Hopkins back in the lineup. And it's still in the first half of the year before Arizona falls. off a cliff in like weeks 10 through 17 as they always do.

Okay, well, if we had a draft at the beginning of the season, I think the Chiefs hosting the bills would have been the number one game of the year. This game probably would have been in the discussion to be number two, Packers at Buffalo. You're king and you just know the shit, the look-ahead lines. I mean, it's enormous. I can't imagine, you know, week one, the lines for the season, this line is probably like minus four, minus five.

Yeah, four. Yeah, so right now. Now, obviously, it's 11, 11 and a half. I mean, who knows by the time kickoff. This to me, I was thinking today this morning that remember, now it's different because their team was better. And Devante was on it, even though he didn't play this game. But last year, that Thursday night game when they played Arizona in Arizona, I think, was undefeated at the time maybe, or maybe they were eight and one. Seven and out.

And it was just your classic, like, no one thought the Packers were going to win. Now, this one's a little different because the Packers had been getting. their ass kicked week after week, which is their squad. But it does feel like eventually you just kind of draw the line in the sand. Like it kind of hit me this morning. Would it be the craziest thing if Monday morning comes and it's like, you know, the Packers upset the bills. Bills by week kind of take their eye up the prize a little bit.

It's not like you have some five and two Green Bay team coming in. So you're looking at like this is some Super Bowl matchup. Not that I get it to Aaron Rogers, but it just seems like the position where everyone in their mother is like, oh, bills are going to kill them. all of a sudden you look up in the third quarter and it's a tie game. Now, the Green Bay, it's not like I'm some believer, but, you know, I could see them going like 8, 9, 9, and 8, and this is just a moment in their season when everyone kind of pivots back. Oh, Green Bay is back and figure it out. And it turns out, no, they just kitchen sink type game. Or maybe they just

suck. I don't know. But is it the craziest thing that the Packers win this game, I guess is what I'm saying? No, I don't disagree. Yeah, I think that the bills, you know, it's at night. they're off of a buy. They potentially could come out flat here. They're off that Chiefs win. It's like a Packers team that's struggling. And yeah, Rogers will be a double-digit dog for the first time in his career.

He's only been an underdog of six or more points three times in the regular season. He's covered all three. Ironically enough... Was Arizona one of those games last year? Arizona was one against Arizona. Undefeated Arizona, they won out right. Ironically enough, all three were on this exact weekend.

If you also go back to 2018, the Rams who were undefeated, and went on to go to the Super Bowl, the Packers lost by two on a late field goal. No one gave a chance. The Packers were bad that year. And then back in 2010, they beat the undefeated Jets on this weekend.

9-0. I don't know what the hell went in that game. But that's it. They were, that was the only times the riders has been an underdog of six or more points. But, yeah, I actually think this works in the favor of the Packers. Like, their offense, you know,

they've obviously been struggling, but now they get to kind of breathe. No one gives them a chance. You go up there, you're just the underdog, and there's been all this pressure on this offense. So I think they can kind of play loose here. And I actually think, you know, and they've lost three straight and haven't covered in three straight historically. You know, you're about 60% against the spread in the NFL over the past 40 years. Basically what you're doing is buying low.

And I think this is the spot to buy the Packers low. You know, and I think it's not the worst matchup in the world. If you look at what's plagued the Packers, they're actually sixth in success rate on offense. You would never think that. But they just have no explosiveness. and they've been the unluckiest team on third and fourth downs in the NFL, which tends to be, you know, there's a lot of variance there. Now, they don't have a lot of explosiveness at receiver. They can't really get separation.

But the bills are one of the best teams in the NFL at preventing explosive plays. You kind of have to drive it down, dink and dunk, that could work here. And the Packers defense, still a top 10 pass defense, arguably the worst run defense in the NFL, statistically it has been this year. the Bills are a bottom three rush offense this year. They can't run the ball this year. Plus, they don't run the ball. And if you go up there and the Bills decide we're going to run the ball game, you're fine with that. So, yeah, from a matchup perspective, it's not the worst thing in the world for the Packers against the team like the Bills, which is very pass heavy.

And then on the other side of the ball, it's like, okay, let's short pass. Let's try to move the ball. They play really slow. So, yeah, I think they can hang around in this game. The defense is still number one in the NFL and drive success rate. to six in success rate. Their special teams are bad, but they've had some bad luck on special teams. Third and fourth downs are dead less, the NFL and fourth down conversion rate.

The turnovers have killed them at inopportune times. So I think all that put together, you know, the bills just beat the chiefs, juggernaut, blah, blah, blah. This is like the bottom of the market on the Packers. And I think it is worth something. You get Rogers like, hey, plus 11 and a half Hall Famed quarterback. Fine. And if he's down 17 late, which is a blowout, against the bills just playing pre-vent,

there's worse quarterbacks you could have to go down and get yourself a back door. I actually just looking at a parlay right now, Pats, Lions, Packers, about 23 to 1. So, you know, I might have a little bit there, Stucky. So I'm feeling this,

I like this Packer Upset City, baby. Let's get it, baby. But put the Cardinals in there, too. I just, on principle, I don't fuck with Kai. and Cliff that way. Though... I don't...

I couldn't have Cliff taken down my parlay either. That being said, I got Jared Goff and Dan Campbell in there, but I just... Cliff, just... No. Actually, Cliff, I don't have the biggest issue with,

even though I don't think he's a great coach. I just think Kyler's like, bro, you're just... I still can't believe he finagled that contract. Unbelievable. After that performance. I mean, it's got an all-time...

It's an all-time racket. And props to his agent, but I don't think we'll ever see anything quite like that again. Like at least Dak, everyone was like, we love the guy. You know, people, his own teammates are like, yeah, not a big fan. Yeah. And they paid him.

Unbelievable. Yeah. By the way, I was going to ask you about your, your Niners. It was funny, we were talking last week about how they love injured players, players running backs with an injury history. And then we were talking about where's McAfri's going to go. And then a couple hours later, McCaffrey goes to the Niners. They've owned, obviously, have owned, dominated.

Shannon has dominated McVevalier. except for like 2018 when the Niners were awful with like C.J. Bethard of a quarterback. Do you think that could, and you know, it's a road game, but it'll be a home game with more Niners fans there. By far. Are you too concerned about the defensive, like, Armstead's really important with Kinloh, Al. Are the defensive injuries too concerning here? Rams don't run the ball, though.

So to me, it's just they just, they just dominate them up front. And the Niners consistently in this game have got a lead. And then Stafford's become pass happy beside the week. week 18 game last year. But for the most, but the regular season games, beside that one, they've gotten a lead early, forced him to pass, and they've eaten his lunch. And he's just so turnover prone. I mean, shit. I mean, he threw it to Kwoski Tard in that game. This is also, I just don't think the Rams are that good. No, you know, and this is, you know, the Niners going to the line is a mess. It's just like, it's just cup and then so concentrated on stars on their defense

that it's, the one thing would make me a little nervous is, you know, it's hard to tell with Niners, maybe they're just being extra cautious as Debo was on the injury report day-to-day hamstring. Debo Samuel has beat the shit out of the ramps. I mean, he's running all over him. He's caught it. He threw a touchdown last year on him. He turns into like Sequin Barclay in college or something. He's unstoppable. He looks like a high school player. Yeah, then he talks shit on the math. They talk shit on Ramsey. And yeah, he owns them. Now, the one thing that maybe they could do without him is, you know, use checks out through the Niners are always beat up, man. But is that you put in like your, you have backs, and then you use McCaffrey more like

Stamiel, which is interesting. Well, McCaffrey yesterday, I saw a clip at practice. He was like running wide receiver routes. So I think part of it with Kyle, and this is why they, I don't love overpaying for a running back. But I thought McCaffrey was like 30. It turned out he was 26. He's like the oldest 26 year old ever.

Part of it, obviously, was the Rams offered a second, a third. second, a third, and a fifth, and basically the Niners just had a fourth. The irony is the reason the Rams didn't have a fourth is because they used that to trade for Sony, Michelle. Wow. I didn't know that. I don't know how much of that game you saw last week, the Chiefs game. McCaffrey did look pretty good.

Yeah. He looked good two weeks ago when he was on the Panthers, so, you know, fuck the Natives. He still. He still. He's a top three back in the NFL. And, yeah, if there's anywhere where he would thrive even more. more. It's in a Shanahan office, it's like the ways that they can use him. I did see a headline that Kamara, you know, put people sniffing around.

I could see the Rams being all over, you know, second, third and like a next year second. Like, okay, we get Ms. McCaffrey, we'll just trade your picks for him. Like that to me. If you tell me Alvin Kamara gets traded, where does he go? The leader in the clubhouse for me would be the Rams. Yeah, that's a good call. But you guys think you get it done again? I'm thinking about that in the Niners.

Yeah, I mean, I feel like the Niners this. week. I like the Niners most weeks. And it's like sometimes they dominate a good team and sometimes they get their ass kicked by an average team. They are the most bizarre talented team I've ever seen in my life. Yeah, last week I think it was just all the defensive injuries. You can't overcome them against a Chiefs offense, a Juggernaut Chiefs offense when they are on. When that Chiefs offense is on, I would love to see the Chiefs offense on against the Niners defense full strength. but when the Chiefs offense is on against the Niners

beat up defense no chance well there was a play at the end of half the Rams are like here like you look at a bottom three offense this year I mean Stafford's on pace for he's not going to throw 25 picks

but does he have a 20 pick season in them if they're bad and he's just playing from behind a lot of games so yeah okay Parlay Patriots Lions Packers let's go audio Stucky

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