The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Broncos Sale, Commanders Wentz Overpay, Jags #1 Pick, Front Office Draft Fog, QB Inflation, Mailbag

Episode Date: April 12, 2022

John discusses the latest news on the sale of the Denver Broncos, why it's clear Washington gave up way too much for Carson Wentz, why Aiden Hutchinson could get passed over for the #1 pick based on J...ags GM Trent Baalke's past drafts, why this time of year is when paralysis by analysis is running rampant in NFL front offices, and why this weak QB class could still get up to 5 first rounders. He also answers listener questions in the Middlekauff Mailbag.Follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:03:51 so they know we sent you. What is going on? my people. John Middlecock, Three and Out podcast. Back at it again. Recording this on a Monday. A little Monday afternoon.
Starting point is 00:04:13 Day after the Masters. Scottie Shelford's a champion. Tiger Woods, not great. You know, we're just a couple weeks away from the draft. Dive into some stories I saw from this weekend. The Broncos are going to sell. Carson Wentz. The Jets.
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Starting point is 00:04:45 Leave a review. Subscribe rate review. I think you guys have all heard that a million times in the podcast game. And yeah, at John Middlekopf is the Middlecough mailbag. It's my Instagram, which is just my name. Direct messages wide open. You slide up in them and you get a question answer here on the show. didn't one the day, and then we do one every weekend. Pretty easy. Very easy to communicate with us
Starting point is 00:05:10 on the show. And by us, I mean me. Direct line is my Instagram account. Let's dive into some football. Okay, I wanted to start with an interesting nugget I saw this weekend on this little thing they call the internet. And the Broncos are for sale right now because Pat Bowlin passed away and they've been, you know, if you're a Bronco fan, you follow it probably much closer than I do. It's been one of the bigger stories, I'm sure, in the city of Denver and just the state of Colorado. I mean, the Broncos are a historic brand in the NFL. And everything going on with Boland's kids, whatever, the league has tried to get involved and just trying to facilitate a sale of the Denver Broncos.
Starting point is 00:05:59 And the article that I saw this weekend was that one of the Waltons, they all, own this thing called Walmart. It's a pretty successful company, prints a lot of money. All the children are typically, you know, top 20 richest people in this country. They've done pretty well for themselves. Walmart pushes a lot of product. Is interested in buying it and is prepared to make an offer over $4 billion. Now, just because the NFL is unique, right?
Starting point is 00:06:28 If I wanted to buy your house and I made an offer so great you couldn't refuse, you'd give it to me. if you own a business and your business is worth a million dollars and I offer you $5 million, you're probably taking the $5 million. But the NFL does not necessarily just give their team away to the highest bidder. They're going to pick and choose, right? Now, ideally, money, you couldn't, just because the NFL wanted you to own the team
Starting point is 00:06:55 and you were only going to offer $2.5 billion, you wouldn't get the team because ultimately the family has to sign off on it. But the NFL likes placing people, right? David Tepper was a minority owner. I think with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jimmy Haslam, same thing. Those guys were in the country club of the National Football League. So I can't speak to League matters if this guy is guaranteed to get the brand,
Starting point is 00:07:21 the team, to be the owner of the Denver Broncos. But I think it shows you that just a couple years ago, David Tepper purchased the Carolina of Panthers for $2.2 billion. To me, it was fascinating because he paid cash. He gave cash for the team. Now, Walton's could easily, too. I read that I think Tim Walton was his name,
Starting point is 00:07:43 is worth $70 billion. Because I saw a bunch of people like, $4 billion, that's pretty crazy. Well, yeah, $70 billion, you do the math. I don't know exactly what, but if you were worth $700,000, I don't know what the equivalent of that would be, but it wouldn't be very much money.
Starting point is 00:07:57 It's a drop in the bucket to the guy. but one thing, I mean, it's just very clear that this team is going to go for an astronomical amount of money. And the number one thing that jumps out to me, and listen, if you listen to me for a while, you know, I've been relieved of my duties before. I have been fired multiple times, once in the NFL and once in the dying business of Terrestrial Radio. And both times, they were when new management came in. Obviously, Chip Kelly with the Philadelphia Eagles. and then I got this new kind of program director. They're called in radio.
Starting point is 00:08:31 Now, those people, unlike in this situation, didn't own the team, but in Chips situation, gave full power. In the radio situation, this guy's the boss. He gets ownership over the operation. And anyone that's listening to this knows if you work in an industry where, you know, management or ownership has changed,
Starting point is 00:08:51 you know everyone in the building, you know, is a little on edge. There's some unknown. There are no scholarship players in the private sector, no matter, unless you're great. And when you're great, everyone wants to keep you at all moments. But when there is any question mark, when there's any budding of heads, when there's ever any philosophical differences, changes are made. And sometimes when ownership changes hands, it doesn't just have to be the NFL. There's a natural change just because people want to institute their own people.
Starting point is 00:09:23 people want, if I'm going to spend this amount of money, I want some of my own people or people I know or people I'm comfortable with or people that I hired to be running certain situations, right, to be running certain parts of the business. And so when I see that this now is basically official that this team is going off the market, I would say in the next six months, someone will own the Denver Broncos, whether it's a Walton or whether. it's some other billionaire. And that guy is going to ultimately want his own people in there sooner than later. So the number one thing that stood out to me was the Denver Broncos don't have Mike Shanahan as their head coach. They don't, this guy is not going to inherit Sean Payton or Billauch. A guy with a ton of equity in the fan base.
Starting point is 00:10:14 They have this younger, energetic first time head coach, zero equity. And here's the other problem. their general manager who's highly respected, I think is pretty good at his job, was hired once upon a time by John Elway, who now really isn't even associated with the operation. Now, if these guys win, probably won't be any issues. It's easy for the owner to just keep these guys on and keep rocking and rolling. But when this general manager just made a pretty historic trade for a player who,
Starting point is 00:10:46 get ready for this, Russell Wilson is going to get an extension. whether that's before the draft, whether that's after the draft, whether that's in training camp, it's coming. They are going to make a large financial commitment to Russell Wilson. That's a fact.
Starting point is 00:11:03 That is coming. So all their chips are in the middle of the table on this player with this new head coach and this general manager. Well, here's the thing. They don't fire players, especially your highest paid player who's going to have a ton of guaranteed money.
Starting point is 00:11:17 He's safe, right? See it in the NBA all the time. You don't fire. LeBron, but he sure has helped fire his coach, and he's fired a lot of them. So Russell Wilson, once he signs this new extension, is going to be safe four years. Whether it goes good, now, you would say based on his career, should go pretty good. But, you know, you never know. Sometimes these trades, a player is no longer what he once was.
Starting point is 00:11:40 We saw signs of it last year. He wasn't running as much as he used to. To me, I've seen him in some pictures. I saw him at the Denver Bronco game or the Denver Nugget game, dapping up the MVP Yokic. And Russell looks a little chubby to me. Just a little overweight. It is shorter, so he kind of wears it.
Starting point is 00:11:58 But regardless, he's going nowhere. There's immediate pressure on the head coach and the general manager. This team needs to win. This team needs to win now. I mean, I've said it forever. There was going to be a team in the AFC West who is highly disappointing. And that team may end up going nine and eight. Look at last year the Chargers.
Starting point is 00:12:14 They went nine and eight. It was a disaster. Missing the playoffs with the top five quarter. quarterback, losing to the Raiders who had an interim coach who had their star wide receiver in jail? Like that was, that's hard to shake. Now, you make the playoffs this year, you win the division, people will forget. The Denver Broncos have been really shitty for a while, but everyone's been hyping up their
Starting point is 00:12:34 talent and rightfully so, they have some good players, but now you have the quarterback to me, the general manager, he hires this coach and he's, he went all in on it. They did a big, like, if you follow them on social media, they did like in-depth features. He really likes the guy. And listen, I'm rooting for him. UC Davis, bald guy. But man, if you go 8, 9, year 1, someone spends $4 billion on a team,
Starting point is 00:12:57 wouldn't shock me if the coach is won and done. Given the pressure and the, just the scrutiny that's going to be on this franchise with a brand new owner, it's just the way it happens, just the way it rolls. I mean, it's just, there's no way around it. There's a pretty consistent theme in the NFL when it comes in new ownership.
Starting point is 00:13:16 Let's go to Carson Wentz. And I think the key as a general manager is to understand the market, whether that's free agency or whether that's the draft. Because ultimately your role, like the coach's role is to coach the team, right? To inspire the team schematically, inspirationally, they are the leader of the squad. As the general manager, your job is to run the personnel department and have your franchise ready basically three times a year, right? the offseason when starts free agency, the combine that area to free agency is when you figure out how much guys are going to cost. Then the NFL draft, which is in a couple weeks,
Starting point is 00:13:57 and understanding where I have to draft guys if I want to pick them. So it's not what guys I want. That's part of it. But if I want player X, do I have to draft them at pick 28 or can I get them at pick 60? You have to understand the market. And then training camp, understanding, waived, guys to get waived, guys to get cut, some trades. Those are the three main times where you can acquire players. That is the general manager's job.
Starting point is 00:14:26 But understanding the market value to me is a very, very underrated part about GMs. You know, it's why a guy like Mike Mayock got fired. Because, and it might not have been his fault. It could have been Gruden's. They kept drafting players in the wrong spots. Like, you're taking a second round. player at pick eight. Like, what are you doing?
Starting point is 00:14:47 And then you get in trouble when that guy doesn't live up to the hype. Well, of course he doesn't because the market was off to begin with. And when you make a trade for any player, whether it's a fifth round pick or whether it's a first round pick, it's based on the market, right? The reason Devante Adams was going to go for a one and a two was because in previous years, top flight players have gone from first and second round picks. Now, I argued like Jalen Ramsey, Jamal, Adams, those guys went for two ones and a two. Now, little different. Those guys were younger,
Starting point is 00:15:18 first contract, but still, regardless, like the market was the market and then the chiefs got a little bit more for Tyreek Hill. And you could argue it's close, but Tyreek has, you know, more impactful career in his, you know, when he was with the Chiefs. Part of it, he's been a Super Bowl champion. He's played, I guess Devonte's played in big games, but it feels like Tyreeks played in a couple more. But still, I thought the Packers didn't quite. I get enough. But regardless, those general managers tried to get a feel for the market. Well, it was reported today by Mike Sando, that there was no market for Carson Wentz. There were no teams that wanted him in the league.
Starting point is 00:15:57 And part of it was, well, of course not. He was run out of town in Philly, given a new lease on life, goes to a team where the head coach loves the guy. And then by the end of his tenure, which was very short-lived, and obviously his tenure was still going on there, but before he was, you know, quote unquote, put on the trading block, they started bad mouthed him left and right. So right away, that would take away a large percentage of teams. The Eagles who invested a ton of cash and a ton of draft capital into the guy, couldn't get him out of the building fast enough. He goes to a really good team. They missed the playoffs and then they can't stand them by the end. Like, that happened. We all saw it. And then for whatever reason,
Starting point is 00:16:39 the Washington football team traded two third round picks for the guy. As Mike Sandel said, there was no market. And part of the reason with a guy like that, he was really expensive. You see it with Jimmy Garopla. Why are people not banging down the doors for Jimmy Garoppel? Because he doesn't cost $12 million.
Starting point is 00:17:00 He costs $27. Even on a lower level, Baker Mayfield. If Baker Mayfield costs $5 million, there would have been multiple teams very interested in him. He costs 18 million, I think it's like 19. It's like 18, 8 or something. It's a lot of money. It's not a small amount of cash.
Starting point is 00:17:16 And it's a salary cap league. This is not baseball. It's not the New York Yankees. And all these teams that can spend an unlimited amount of money. You have caps on the amount of money you can spend. And some of these teams have run through salary cap space. So when I see the Washington football team commanders, commandos, didn't know the value like, that's a poor job by their general manager.
Starting point is 00:17:37 That's unacceptable. Like, that's low level operation. Now, ultimately, let's say Carson is good for them. You could say, well, it doesn't matter. No, it does matter. Because they gave up two third round picks. Like, the profit is in the purchase price, not the end result. Like, when you buy a home for 400 grand and then you sell it for 1.5,
Starting point is 00:18:01 you didn't make the money when you sold it for 1.5. You made it when you purchased it. So if Carson went as good, they had to invest two third round people, They didn't need to spend that much. You knew the Colts were getting rid of the guy. They couldn't, the owner couldn't look at him any longer. Said, get this guy out of my building. And then no teams in the league wanted them.
Starting point is 00:18:20 So I just, just a bad job. You know, there's reasons average and below average franchises stay low level. And this is a good example. Looking at the Jets. Another story that came out of Mike Sandow's weekly article was that the Jets struggled to get a lot of free agents that they were interested in. Now, they still landed some guys. The tight end from Cincinnati, Azuma,
Starting point is 00:18:45 they landed Lakin Tomlinson. Now, they paid him a lot of money. He's a 31-year-old guard, so I would imagine there weren't that many teams going to break the bank for a guy over 30 and that you're going to have to pay $10 plus million a year. But they did.
Starting point is 00:19:01 I think it's pretty understandable why no players, if the money was even remotely close would want to play for the New York Jets. Let's look at it just from a basic football perspective. I did the math. The last five years, over several coaches, from Bowles to Adam Gase to now Robert Salah, they have averaged a little over four wins a season.
Starting point is 00:19:28 That is terrible. Like that is low-level football. In a league full of parity, in a league where every once in a while you should win nine games, they're averaging 4.4 wins a season for a half decade with several coaches. So the franchise, for whatever reason, just reeks of losing right now. And then you factor in the market. And one, from a media perspective, it's pretty intense. Like you play for the Jags or you play, hell, even Tampa with Tom Brady.
Starting point is 00:19:59 It's pretty low key. I worked for the Eagles. I saw it. It was nuts. that northeastern corridor of Philly, D.C., the two New York teams, the Patriots, like those are intense markets. It is not for everyone. The 49ers, one of the biggest brands in the league.
Starting point is 00:20:18 It's not, you know, it's kind of chill. It's not, you go to an OTA practice here in a couple weeks. I'll be standing there. There'll be like five media members. You go to an Eagles or a Giants or a Jets practice. There are people everywhere. And then you get in these press conferences, it's just intense. You know, so if you get the choice,
Starting point is 00:20:34 you would avoid that. Not because you're scared of the media or whatever, but like, why would you want to deal with something if you don't have to deal with it, especially if you're not going to win? So you're like, more likely we're going to lose. And two, I'm just going to have to answer all these questions
Starting point is 00:20:49 nonstop and the intensity is never going to stop. And then you also factor in their taxes are outrageous. Like a lot like California, like our tax are outrageous. But at least you know if you go to the Rams or now you go to Herbert and the Chargers or you go to Kyle Shanahan, you're going to have some success. So it's like, yeah, they're offering me the most money. I'm going to take a hit financially because, you know, you start, you're in the top
Starting point is 00:21:11 tax bracket that you're going to get hit 13, 14%. Well, at least I'm going to win. If I go to the Jets, I'm going to get dinged financially and I'm going to lose and a bunch of media are going to talk shit about me. Screw this. So I don't think it's really that complicated, right? Once upon a time, when I first got to the NFL, they had Rex Ryan, their defense was legit.
Starting point is 00:21:30 They had a top running game. The team was good. So you look past like, yeah, I'll take a little financial hit, quote, unquote, to go win. People did it for years with the Patriots. For decades, for multiple decades, you went to New England, you took less money, usually, but you knew you were going to win some football games and have a chance to play in big games in the playoffs. So you could overlook, you know, whatever the negativity was. And it's not an easy place, right?
Starting point is 00:21:58 Bills in your ass, the taxes there aren't, you know, light. and the media there is not light, but at least you knew you were going to win double-digit games and be hosting playoff games. With the Jets is the opposite. You're getting ready for Cancun in early January. So they have a long, long way to go. And the number one question that's going to have to be answered there,
Starting point is 00:22:19 like with all these young quarterbacks, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Tray Lance, Justin Fields, a little, I guess, Mac Jones, but we saw Mac Jones be a starter for a playoff team. Can these guys play? you know, and it's going to be very, like, of all the non-Mac Jones, like one reason Mac Jones had success, right? He went to Bill Belichick, a team with a good defense,
Starting point is 00:22:42 and a team with a good running game. That was a great landing spot for a 22, 23-year-old quarterback. Fields went to a place where everyone got fired, the O-line sucked. Trey Lance, a little like Mac Jones, went to a really successful organization, and didn't even have to play. Zach Wilson's thrown out of the fire with the shitty, team. Now, I'm not even sure he's that good, but still, I mean, most people would have struggled. And Trevor Lawrence had Urban Meyer and the disaster that was the Jacks, right? So these were
Starting point is 00:23:10 not easy situations. But eventually, if these teams are going to turn the corner, you're going to need, especially the Jets, they're going to need Zach Wilson to be good. Like, looking back on Rex Ryan in those couple years, they were successful with Sanchez, he didn't really have to do that much. I'm pretty sure they led the league in rushing and their defense was elite. So none of these guys, and definitely Zach Wilson, does not have that. They're not going to lead the league in rushing. And their defense last year was atrocious. So they got a long, long way to go. I think it's going to be very, very difficult for Joe Douglas and Robert Sala. The NBA playing tournament, and there are no sure things, except one. Bet at least $20 in same game parlays on
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Starting point is 00:25:16 Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, Virginia, 1-800-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7117. For confidential help, Michigan, Tennessee, Tennessee, visit www, 1-800-gambler.net, West Virginia. At Safeway, we're perfecting the art of fresh. Produce pros work with trusted top-quality growers, so your hand-picked fruits and vegetables are harvested at the peak of flavor and handled with care from farm to you. Come by and pick up fresh-cut, colorful produce, prepare daily in our store, and bursting with flavor. We meet or beat national standards so you get the cream of the crop. Shop in store or online at Safeway.com today for delivery or for convenient curbside pickup.
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Starting point is 00:27:51 Seas. Easter Bunny approved. Peter Shreger of Good Morning Football, said that a curve ball has potential to happen come the NFL draft. And Trayvon Walker, this guy that played for the University of Georgia, who, you know, unless you're like really deep into the weeds
Starting point is 00:28:12 or you're an SEC fan, you probably don't quite know who he is. And he kind of threw it out there that it's not inconceivable that Trent Balke at the number one overall pick would take Trayvon Walker. And he compared it a little bit to, Now, this guy wasn't the number one overall pick,
Starting point is 00:28:32 but once upon a time, I think he was like the seventh or the ninth pick. The 49ers took Alden Smith out of Missouri. And a couple years later, he had more sacks than anyone through two years in the NFL. So it was like, what a pick. But at the time, I remember being in the NFL thinking like, that's a pretty bold crazy pick. And the one thing I will give Trent Balke credit on,
Starting point is 00:28:53 he will take big swings. And he likes taking guys with elite physical attributes. he did it with both the guys out of Oregon. Eric Armstrongstead and DeForest Buckner in back-to-back years. He did it with Mike Yuppati. He did it with Navaral Bowman. He's done it with a lot of players in his tenure
Starting point is 00:29:09 when he was with San Francisco. And now he's with, obviously, the Jackson and they have the number one overall pick. And one question mark that's kind of out there, and I saw Jim Nagy who runs the Senior Bowl compared Aiden Hutchinson, who was rumored to be potentially the number one overall pick,
Starting point is 00:29:26 compared him to Chris Long. and Chris Long had a really good career. Super Bowl champion was a top pick, had a decade plus long career, was a very successful pass rusher. But that was his kind of comp. And it was clear, you know, now Chris battled some injuries,
Starting point is 00:29:42 but like if you could redo the draft, Chris Long would not have been the number two overall pick. But he clearly would have been a top, you know, probably a first round pick. And one knock on Aidan Hutchinson is like, how high is his ceiling? And this is a hard balance because I saw this quote, I read it in Peter King's article today,
Starting point is 00:30:00 because an executive was pushing back on guys with lower ceilings. And basically because we use the word, he's an overachiever. And this guy had a good quote. He said, when did being an overachiever become a bad thing? And it's true. Like Tiger Woods is an overachiever. Kobe Bryant was an overachiever. Tom Brady is an overachiever.
Starting point is 00:30:21 Elon Musk is an overachiever. Jeff Bezos is an overachiever. the highest level of successful people in any industry, I would consider overachievers. Now, the thing is with pro sports, just because you're an overachiever, if you're an overachiever with Trent Williams or Tyron Smith's talent at tackle, you're going to dominate. If you just have Mackay Bechtin's work ethic, well, if you can just stay on the field, you're going to be okay because your talent is so high level. but Mike McGlinchie, who was once upon a time drafted number nine overall by the San Francisco
Starting point is 00:30:57 49ers, doesn't have elite talent. So he has to be an overachiever just to be a solid starter. And if I could take, and I've seen it before, like two guys that were quote-unquote, super high character guys, super considered overachievers because they didn't, they lack some of the physical attributes were Solomon Thomas and Cleland Farrell, one out of Stanford and one out of Cleland. They were both drafted. I think Solomon was third overall
Starting point is 00:31:25 and the next year, Cleland Farrell was the fourth overall pick to the Raiders. Neither of them are very good. And it's not because of lack of effort. It's not because of lack of trying. It's they simply lack the physical attributes. Now, when I watched the kid at Michigan and I watched a lot of Michigan games,
Starting point is 00:31:42 to be he's much more talented than both those guys. But he doesn't have the longest arms and people just wonder like, is he a dominant player? If you're just drafting a guy because you know you can get a 10-year player, is that the right move? When you know you can just, like,
Starting point is 00:31:56 if I could tell a guy before he gets up to a bat, right, Bryce Harper, I can say, would you take a stand-up double right now or would you take your chances of hitting a home run in the ninth inning to win the game? I bet most of the elite players would say, give me my opportunity to hit a home run over just like, I'll put you at second base, right? And I think most general managers that have some Cajonis,
Starting point is 00:32:20 that have some stones want to take a big swing. Now, I text a couple people and they thought it would be a pretty bold move. This Trayvon Walker guy, one-year starter, not the most productive guy, but he's 6'5, he's 270 pounds, he's got 35-5-inch arms,
Starting point is 00:32:36 that is crazy long, and he ran a 4-5, an absolute freak show. Now, we've seen it go both ways. We've seen freak shows get drafted really high and be complete busts, because ultimately you have to play football. But this guy was not
Starting point is 00:32:50 playing at like Cal Poly. No offense. They're actually on the come-up. This guy was a starter at one of the best defenses in the last 20 years. So he has a lot of physical attributes and that defense was not just letting you fly up the field and chase the quarterback. Right. So you have to balance how good can this guy get? Because to me, part of drafting someone really high, like, it's why I like the 49ers taking Trey Lance over Mack Jones. Because ultimately it's not about even right now. It's about the next five years. Now that, potential gets a lot of people fired, especially in the sporting world, right?
Starting point is 00:33:25 Potential, potential, potential. Eventually, you've got to have results. You got to get the job done. You got to be able to play. But I like, look at the bills are a great example. They went all in on potential. And to me, potential, when you have the overachieving mindset, and this is where the scouting department has to do a good job,
Starting point is 00:33:44 what type kid is he? What's his character write up like? What's, you know, what do coaches say about? them, just what's the person? Because if you feel very good about the person, then I like taking chances on the elite talent. Or the guy with the elite attributes. But when the person is, you know,
Starting point is 00:34:02 it's like, eh, he's a kind of average worker, doesn't love football, I stay away. So I don't have that information on this player, but it wouldn't shock me if bulky takes a swing for the fences. The other thing is the draft that's right around the corner. Ultimately, I would say even way more than free agents, ultimately to me free agency is to supplement your team because ultimately you build your you know your long term sustained success
Starting point is 00:34:30 unless you're the Rams through the draft and and let's face it they kind of have too they just use those picks to trade for players staffer Jalen Ramsey I mean their best player is a is a drafted player in in Aaron Donald but part of the reason the draft is so powerful because I get you on a cost-controlled number, even if you're the number one overall pick, but second, third, fourth-rounders for years. So I have you under cost-controlled contract at a relatively low number. And it's right around the corner. This is the lifeblood of, this is what scouts and general managers work all season long for. And it's not very far away. And the paralysis by analysis, and I saw Daniel Jeremiah tweeted out, I think,
Starting point is 00:35:17 Phil Savage, who's a buddy of mine too, kind of the fog of this time of year. And what he means is we are so far separated from the time these guys last played a game. So all you've had to analyze since, you know, the last game was played in like early January.
Starting point is 00:35:33 But most players in the draft did not play in the national championship. A lot of them played in bowl games before Christmas. Like that is a very, very long time ago. So all I'm evaluating these guys on now are some All-Star games, but mainly the combine and pro days.
Starting point is 00:35:49 And I think you can overvalue things that don't necessarily matter where when I loved a guy in the draft process during the fall, going into the school, I'm telling my bosses about him, they like the guy, we really like the player.
Starting point is 00:36:05 Let's say he's a second round player. I'm like, this guy can really play, I will pound the table for him. And then he goes to the combine or he goes to the pro day and he puts up shitty numbers. And that immediately scares people off. It just does.
Starting point is 00:36:17 It's a natural reaction. If I thought this guy's a second round player and then he runs really slow, it's like, well, is he really going to go in the second round? And then you have to balance, well, can we get this guy in the third round because we still like him? Or are we off the scent?
Starting point is 00:36:32 And I think teams right now are trying to build their board and try to convince themselves, are we staying on this player or are we pivoting to other players? And there's no right or wrong answer to that right now, but you figure that out in 6-8, 10 months. Once you see these guys play as rookies, you're like, yeah, we screwed that up. Or yeah, we overthought that one. Or yeah, we did a good job. We stuck by our guns. We let the
Starting point is 00:36:56 take speak for itself. A lot of teams, what they do is if you want to change your draft grade, you lock it in during the season. So if I give a guy, whatever, however you numerically quantify a player, right, if it's based on your own team, right, he'd be a starter for us, he'd be a functional starter, he'd be a backup. If you do it that way, if you do it on a round grade, like I think the guy's a second rounder, I think he's a third rounder, you lock that in usually like in early January. Then if you want to change your grade during this process, the combine, the pro days, you have to put in like a separate report and a separate grade. Where when I was with the Eagles, you could kind of fluidly do it. So it's like,
Starting point is 00:37:38 I thought this guy, I did it with Keenan Allen. I love Keenan Allen. I had a first round grade on him. And then he ran slower. He wouldn't run. I kind of forget now. and I ended up putting a third round grade on him and it was just stupid. I watched the guy play. He was a dominant player from the moment he was basically born and he's gone on to have an elite career. But I overthought the process and I think that can happen
Starting point is 00:37:58 but a lot of these teams now have taken that ability to weigh because you know of the way that they do their draft grades. And then last but not least just the quarterbacks I think the quarterback inflation is out of control. You know Peter King wrote that he thinks three guys to go
Starting point is 00:38:15 in the top 20, or maybe an executive told him three guys to go in the top 20. I saw Greg Cosell said he wouldn't think it's crazy if five guys go in the first round. You got to be very, very careful. Because if you draft the wrong guy and when you overdraft quarterbacks, if I overdraft a defensive
Starting point is 00:38:34 lineman, that guy can still play for me. That guy can still rotate in. If I overdraft a wide receiver, I can still use that guy. When I overdraft a quarterback, and then it turns out that he's terrible, he becomes a backup and he's only one guy can play. So this quarterback class coming into the season, throughout the season, we all viewed
Starting point is 00:38:54 these guys, the most talented guy, Malik Willis as a major project. Kenny Pickett is like a poor man's Kirk Cousins. Kirk Cousins went in the fourth round. Now I understand that Mack Jones is in that kind of realm to. He went 15th overall. Mac Jones is a way better player than Kenny Pickett. And then you got guys like Desmond Ritter and some of the comps I've heard are like Marcus Marriota and Dak Prescott. Well,
Starting point is 00:39:16 Dak Prescott also win the fourth round. And if we could redo Marriota's draft, no way he goes in the first round. So when I hear some of the comps on these players, I go, well, none of these guys would have gone in the first round. So I understand the inflation with that position is understandable.
Starting point is 00:39:34 It's real. But when you make a investment, like right now, if you're going to buy a house to the peak of the market, better be prepared because if shit goes south, you could be way in over your head. and it's not something easy to pivot off of, right? And to me, that's quarterbacks. You can miss at other positions.
Starting point is 00:39:52 But when you miss it quarterback, because ultimately you're going to have to force that guy into play. Once I draft a quarterback, I would say in the top 50 picks, that would include early in the second round. Look at the Broncos with Drew Locke. You're just in bed with the guy. You've got to play them.
Starting point is 00:40:07 And then it kind of derails everything. And when you draft a guy in the first round, you have to play them. Right? There is no getting around it. Maybe you can redshirt to me, year like Trey Lance did last year, like it sounds like people want to do with Malik Willis. Let's say the Steelers draft him.
Starting point is 00:40:21 They start Mitch Trubisky. But for the most part, within 12 months, that guy is your starting quarterback. And then typically he's going to start for you for a couple years. So if he sucks, you're in trouble. Because like the Titans got kind of lucky. Right. They made a trade for Ryan Tannihil. And then it was clear Tanniel was just a lot better than Marriota and they were able to pivot.
Starting point is 00:40:41 Right. Look at the Bears. I mean, the Bears had Mitch. It did not work. then they ended up with fields who I really like fields but who knows what if he's not any good they just might be in quarterback purgatory and be stink forever so there is just an element when you invest at the quarterback position especially high if I take a guy in the third fourth fifth round whatever guy can be a backup I take a guy in the top 32 picks like I said I'd even argue 50 picks but definitely
Starting point is 00:41:08 a first round pick because that means he has a fifth year option the clock starts immediately the pressure starts immediately and the fans are locked into wanting to see that guy play and it's hard to blame him because it's like well you guys like this guy enough to draft him this high let's see him play and let's face it these guys this quarterback class was not touted highly for a reason the talent just isn't really there
Starting point is 00:41:30 and if we end up seeing three of these guys go in the top 20 we're going to see a lot of general managers in my opinion lose their job relatively quickly are you looking for the hottest gambling advice out there Check out the Moneyline Monaco podcast Powered by Fandul every weekday Our guy Alex Monaco will give you his best bets
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Starting point is 00:42:07 only on the volumes podcast network. Very few things are impossible. What do you mean? Most of the things that people think are impossible aren't. I know something that's impossible. Okay, tell it. Having a big event and not creating a pile of junk. Okay, but it's easily fixable.
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Starting point is 00:43:30 It's just my name. At John Middilkoff on Instagram and fire any question you want. You know, football could be life. It could be a pursuit of happiness. It doesn't have to just be on, you know, national football league. Start with Zach, who has a national football league question. When do you think Snyder gets the boot? seems like many things he's doing wrong
Starting point is 00:43:51 and Goodell keeps sweeping it under the rug. I don't necessarily think like Goodell's on his side. You know, like Rogers Pro-Snyder or Anti-Snyder. I think it's a tough situation. I mean, technically that's his boss. It's not his job to kick him out of the league. They're going to need substantial evidence
Starting point is 00:44:10 of him doing something that is, you know, unbecoming to the levels where they can kick him out because he clearly doesn't want to go. but people are coming for his throat. The minority owners have been doing everything humanly possible to ruin his name. And it just hasn't stuck. Now that email scandal led to Gruden, that clearly was a bizarre time. Like how did they not take him out there, but they didn't?
Starting point is 00:44:37 You know, my guess is, Snyder, given this, he's a survivor. He's a fighter. It's going to get even uglier before he goes, if he goes. You know, I think we've acknowledged it's clear people want him out. There's a difference in wanting something and getting something, right? A lot of people want to do something in, you know, the private sector, actually accomplishing that, whether it's a hostile takeover, buying someone out, forcing sale, whatever.
Starting point is 00:45:07 It's easier said than done, especially in an industry like this. Okay, Scott, question for the pod. whenever you have a minute. Got a minute right now. Now that the bills have locked up digs, what do you think they do in the first round? Cornerback, running back, also any chance they trade for McCaffrey?
Starting point is 00:45:27 Who do you think they take? You know, I don't think they take McCaffrey, though if they could get Carolina to eat some of that money, it could be, that's pretty risky. He's just been banged up a lot. They need a big running back, but to me, you take that guy in the later rounds.
Starting point is 00:45:45 Like, you can get that guy the third, fourth, fifth round. I mean, the 49er starting running back, Elijah Mitchell, they got in the sixth round. You can get, Dalvin Cook was a second round pick. You don't need to take the guy in the first round. I don't think you ever go wrong with DB. Obviously, they took a lot of D-Lyman last year,
Starting point is 00:46:02 never go wrong with offensive linemen. I think they're in a position where you just take the best player available. When you're an elite team like them, you just take the best player on your board. You don't necessarily force a need. That would be my thought, because they do have a lot of options in the sense of, I mean, they're really good.
Starting point is 00:46:23 They are right there. Just listen to this weekend pot. I'm a Eagle fan, and the last two questions were about the trade and just wanted to also let you know that they got a 2024 second in return also. Good nugget. I knew that. Maybe I didn't mention that.
Starting point is 00:46:38 On the side note, I recently built a house in Arizona in the area in North Phoenix called Desert Ridge. I know how nuts the prices are getting, but hope you make it out here sooner and later. I came here from Portland, so I'm guessing a lot of the same reasons you went out of California. Enough said, smart man. Arizona is the ship.
Starting point is 00:46:59 I'm from Fayetteville, North Carolina. Big fan, love the pot. I've listened for years. I'm a cowboy fan. And was wondering what position you would draft in the first round if you ran their front office. We lost Collins and Connor Williams in free agency on the offensive line,
Starting point is 00:47:14 but we also lost race. Randy Gregory on the defensive line. However, we also lost Amari Cooper and Cedric Wilson. I like Cedric Wilson. Yeah, I mean, I think you can never go wrong with the offensive linemen. Now, they made the playoffs where they got bounced in the first round, so I
Starting point is 00:47:29 think I would imagine what's their pick? 20, 21, 22, somewhere in that range. Yeah, I would go lineman. I think I always lean line. It's not the sexiest thing, like taking a guard or taking a detackle or a pass rusher. Obviously, past rushers can be sexy, but sometimes they're not.
Starting point is 00:47:45 It just depends. on the level of fame of the past rusher. I just think you historically lean line early, you'll be okay. Terry, do you think there are similarities between Carson Wentz and Jake Cutler? Both seem to lack key leadership characteristics that may contribute to their teams underachieving. But both have the talent and leave coaches constantly thinking they can be the one to fix them. I find Cutler to be better of the two as far as talent and success, but wanted to know your thoughts. Yeah, I mean, I would say one major difference is I do feel like Jay, a little more of a guy's guy.
Starting point is 00:48:22 Maybe that's not correct, but, you know, Carson is very, very religious. I think, you know, I know people that have been around Jay that like Jay. So he's a little different. Carson has like this, I don't know, religious arrogance to him. People just don't like them. But period, point blank. Jay, you know, I would put him in a similar category, but kind of different people. I would rather have Jay Cutler than Carson Wentz, for sure.
Starting point is 00:48:54 Carson just can't get along with people. I don't know quite what the deal is. Started following the go low as well as three and out. I like matchplay golf, but it's too boring over 18 holes. What would be your thoughts on a nine-hole match play event? You could have three matches a day, get the event finished quickly. Every home would be every guy. would be vital and would encourage risk-taking.
Starting point is 00:49:16 Keep kicking ass taking names. Yeah, I don't mind it. You know, part of the match play is it's pretty rapid fire, you know, because you're just, it's basically just guy playing another guy. So it's just, you know, guys are getting wiped out fast. I don't think they would do it because a lot of guys are down multiple, you know, after nine holes,
Starting point is 00:49:35 two or three, you know, basically two or three holes and come back to win. I mean, Kisner, who's in the final four, I think was down four, holes with five to play or three holes with four to play. So I don't think they need to do that. It's also a one-off event. You would definitely need to institute some stuff like that if you had match play once a month.
Starting point is 00:49:56 It happens once a year. So to me, it's not that big of you. From Thomas. Lifelong Cowboys fan, born in 87, and my first memories of football are 8, 22, and 88. I think he means Troy Aikman, Emmett Smith, and a playmaker. Michael Irvin.
Starting point is 00:50:15 I would like to ask your input on what the boys can do to get over this 20 plus year bump or hump, but your answer would make too much fucking sense for the Jones family seems to only be capable of making moves that make absolutely no sense
Starting point is 00:50:28 so I just want to know what is your educated guess as to what direction they go in the first round. I think they need to get some O-line help as well as, as we all know, Tyrone, Tyrone, can't make it through a full season. We lost Collins.
Starting point is 00:50:42 for show recommendations. If you haven't watched the Last Kingdom on Netflix, it's one of the best shows I've ever watched. Wow, it's high praise. Might need to check that out. Yeah, we just talked about it. I would lean line.
Starting point is 00:50:56 They still have a very talented team. I mean, Dak, I was going to say Zeke, but I don't even know if you can say that anymore. You're right. Their offensive lines getting old. Amari's gone. Amari's been good for them.
Starting point is 00:51:07 Cedric Wilson was good for them. There's a lot. CD's got to dominate now. C.D. and Jarwin have the dominate. Defensively, they're going to keep needing those interceptions from Stefan Diggs' brother.
Starting point is 00:51:22 I've heard you say numerous times on the pod that the Lakers 2020 championship does not count because of the bubble, as well as the Cavs 2016 because Green missed game 6. My question is if those don't count, what can we say? No, the Cavs 2006, I was there.
Starting point is 00:51:38 LeBron's 2016 championship counts. 100%. Guys get suspended, guys get injured, whatever. They got a break. Shit happens. The Raptors caught a break when Kevin Durant and Clay Thompson got hurt. Their championship counts. The bubble championship does not count. That is only counted in
Starting point is 00:51:58 Lakerland. No other human counts that title. That was not basketball. Guys were setting records in the bubble. So, LeBron's title in Cleveland, 100% counts. His one in the Lakers is I think as the mobsters would say it, a Fugazi. So yeah, I mean, I don't,
Starting point is 00:52:22 I've never said that the 2016 title doesn't count. But the bubble title does not count. And if you wanted to say that the Dodgers title, they played 60 fucking games that year. Now, it is what it is, but at least in football, they played a regular schedule and they played full games.
Starting point is 00:52:40 Now, there weren't fans, but it does feel like football, of the three major sports in 2020 was by far the most realistic. I even said like some of the majors, Colin Morikawa, who is one of the best players in golf, won TPC Harding Park,
Starting point is 00:52:55 the PGA Championship. There were no fans. Does he win that basically as a rookie if there were fans? Maybe not. Does Bryson D. Chambot win the U.S. Open with, you know, if there are fans there?
Starting point is 00:53:07 Maybe, maybe not. So I read Flagg, 2020. In all the sports that were dramatically different. Unfortunately, I'm a lifelong Jags fan. What do you think of them taking a wide receiver such as Birx, Wilson, or Watson in the second round? Love it.
Starting point is 00:53:25 I know they spent money in free agency, but if you were in charge with that pick, what are the options we're available to get a weapon next to Trevor Lawrence? Well, their team is so shitty that there is nothing off the table for them. Obviously, adding Christian Kirk, Christian Kirk is, you know, I mean, Is he even a number two? Like, they still need elite guys. They need elite offensive playmakers. So, yeah, I would, I don't know if any of those guys, like,
Starting point is 00:53:53 Burks is the kid from Arkansas. I don't think he's going to be there. Wilson, or Garrett Wilson will definitely not be there. Yeah, to me, I would take a receiver high for sure. Do you see D.K. Metcalfe getting traded before the draft? I'm a big Jets fan and would love to see the Jets make a move. Well, you know, trading pick 10 for DKMECAF is pretty nuts. You know, he was drafted in the second round.
Starting point is 00:54:20 You have to pay him $22, $23 million. Like this, you don't have to pay him $20. The going rate for DK now is like $22.23. So it's, you have to trade, pick 10, just take Garrett Wilson. Just take, or Chris Olive, take whatever Ohio State guy is still on the board. That's what I would do. And get, have a sweet receiver for like $4 million. Under contract.
Starting point is 00:54:41 and then you still extend them, you know, ideally in three or four years. That's what I would do. I would use that pick on one of those wide receivers. I would not trade for D.K. McCaff. If I was the Seattle, I would extend D.K. McHaff. I would not trade him. Isn't the whole point of being a general manager is finding guys like D.K. Metcalf and then extending D.K. Metcalf
Starting point is 00:55:03 and building around D.K. McHF.? Like, listen, he might be a little bit of a diva, but he's a dominant player. 29 touchdowns, three years. 29. Which team in the AFC West improved? It's playoffs or busts for all four. It's highly unlikely they all get in.
Starting point is 00:55:20 Which team do you think has the most to lose by not getting in? I think it was the Chargers based on last year's ending. Yeah, I think the Chargers or the, I mean, the Broncos are going to have a new owner. So like I talked about earlier on the podcast, there was going to be a ton of pressure on them.
Starting point is 00:55:36 If I spend $4 billion on a business, that business better be successful. pretty quickly. So to me, you could argue they'd be number one. At the end of the day, Dean Spanos, he's been missing the playoffs for years, cash and checks and being stingy. Like, what is really going to change for him?
Starting point is 00:55:53 Not much. So is there really that much? They're not going to fire Brand Staley. They don't want to pay a guy to go away. So I'd argue it's the Broncos. Because the Chiefs, they've won the division for six straight years. If they were to have a season where they missed the playoffs, that would be bad because you never want to miss the playoffs
Starting point is 00:56:08 when you got Patrick Mahomes. but I also don't even see that likely. It is Josh McDaniel's first year, but they did trade for Devante Adams. There's pressure there for sure. I feel like it's most on the Broncos. They just traded a boatload for Russell Wilson. Greetings from Mexico City.
Starting point is 00:56:26 What do you think the Packers will do with their wide receiver court? Also, how do you recommend me get into the world of sports? I currently study finance. How can I start following golf? Do you recommend any page or something? You know, YouTube? Watch golf start playing golf. The easiest way to get into golf is to play.
Starting point is 00:56:46 Because if you play, then you can understand when you're watching the pros how hard it is. I don't know. I mean, the Packers have drafts of guys. I mean, that's really, what are their options right now? Sign Julio, they're in a little trouble. You know, if you're in finance, I would try, depends what you want to do. Do you want to work in football? Do you want to work, you know, you got to be a little more specific.
Starting point is 00:57:09 go to LinkedIn, start whatever industry or team or thing you're interested in, find people that works for that entity on LinkedIn, befriend them, and then shoot them messages. Try to find their emails, shoot them emails. That would be like how I'd start from Ground Zero. What does Tom Brady work to the Glazers? $100 million a year? Without Tom, they go from headlining every NFL talk show
Starting point is 00:57:32 to just a small market team that no one cares about. My question is, the Glazers have to be kicking cash back to Tom and someone. way, right? I'm thinking through TB12, how much of it goes on in the NFL? I've never owned an NFL team, but I would imagine a lot. Because like you said, Tom Brady is worth so much money to the Glazers. He was worth so much money to the crafts. Well, think about what the crafts did. They employed TB12 methods. They employed Guerrero as a consultant. They rented out, you know, Tom leased a building from them across from Foxborough. I think he paid for that building. Do you think they could have siphoned money through him. That's what I would do. Like, ultimately,
Starting point is 00:58:13 circumventing the cap is not illegal. That's, that's an NFL problem, not a legality. So if you can't get caught, I would do it. It's the way the business world works. Cash is king, you know. I would imagine, I've never heard this from anyone. So I can't, it's like I have inside knowledge of these deals happening. But I would bet a lot of money that they go on. Because of the amount of money, a guy like Tom Brady, is worth to you as an owner. It's unquantifiable. It's not even just being talked about. It's season ticket hold. It's sales. It's playoff games. It's the relevancy of your franchise. It's worth a shitload. So I wouldn't blame them if they did something shady. Because if I was in their situation, I surely would. They didn't make the playoffs for a
Starting point is 00:59:05 decade. Then they get Tom and they win the Super Bowl and then host back-to-back playoff games. Pretty lucrative individual for them for sure. Keep the DMs coming. Fire me some, any questions you want. You know, it doesn't just have to be football. And we will talk soon. Have a good week. I'll have a golf podcast out on Wednesday. Go Lopod. And if you have any golf questions, at Go Lopod is the Instagram. And let's keep talking. Let's keep talking. Let's keep, uh, Keep sharing this with your people. Talk soon.
Starting point is 00:59:38 Peace. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?
Starting point is 01:00:25 We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert. Smigel and Friends on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.
Starting point is 01:00:45 Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.
Starting point is 01:01:09 Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliver Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. On the Look Back at it podcast.
Starting point is 01:01:42 For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year.
Starting point is 01:01:59 It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

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