The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Burrow gets hurt, Charissa Thompson lied, the weekend ahead

Episode Date: November 17, 2023

John reacts to Joe Burrow having to leave the Thursday Night Football game with an apparent wrist sprain, what does his injury mean for the Bengals moving forward, after the comments made from Charissa Thompson, how important are halftime interviews with coaches, and is the AFC North the best division in the NFL. Lastly, John is joined by Stucky from the Action Network. Joe Burrow gets hurt - 5:50 Ravens were never going to lose - 15:25 Charissa Thompson - 19:32 Around the NFL - 24:00 Big week for the Steelers - 29:00 Dolphins - Raiders - 31:04 Christian McCaffrey - 33:29 Stucky - 45:15 Oregon State - Washington - 57:50 Rams - Seahawks - 62:28 Lions - Bears - 1:06:20 Browns - 1:10:45 Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Terms at Sportsbook. Dot draftkings.com slash football terms. What is going on, everybody? How are we doing? John Middlecop, that's me, Three and Out podcast. That's this show. We just watched the Ravens Destroy the Bengals.

Story of the game, though, is Joseph Burroughs' hand, which does not look good. and I'm recording this right after the game, so by the time you listen to this Friday, maybe there'll be some Schefter rap sheet breaking news, but clearly did not look good and the Bengals are in major trouble. The Ravens now 8 and 3

and got a chance to make some serious noise, obviously they're really good. Other than that, we will dive into some thoughts on the internet controversy of Carissa Thompson and just sideline reporters in general. We will bounce around the NFL. Dan Campbell tells Texas A&M, no thanks.

I'm a lion. Some big week coming up for the dolphins, the Steelers, Christian McCaffrey, as well as my bold take of the week. I just nailed one last week with C.J. Stroud and Houston Texans. And I might be going against them a little bit this week, but we will dive into all that. You guys know the drill. Subscribe to the podcast wherever you may listen to.

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I said, well, I didn't even really know what was going on, But if I wanted to go, hell yeah, they would have. I'm playing golf on Saturday. I'm watching college football. Not the biggest racing guy, but if you want to go to the racing event, do you want to go to any event? Download the Game Time app right now on your smartphone. Game time, download that bad boy.

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the official ticketing app of this podcast, and use that promo code John for $20 off. Okay, the story of the night, obviously the health of Joe Burrell. And the one thing in the NFL, when you have a quarterback of Patrick, Mahomes, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, you name it, un-eliep, Lamar Jackson, and they go down, I'm sorry, your season is over.

Now, depending on the time of year and what your record is, you might still be able to make the playoffs, but you have no chance to do anything. Like, that's clear. I don't need to explain that to anyone listening. We've all watched football long enough. I think the question mark is, is in situations like this. And the sad part is, is early in the season, it was hard to watch Joe Burrow. And I was texting with some buddies like, when Joe Burrow was on, like the version we saw a couple weeks ago against the 49ers, you can argue that's like the best player in the league. He's every bit as good as Patrick Mahomes when he's playing like that, especially given the weaponry that he has currently and that Patrick doesn't. Right. Now,

I'm not saying he's necessarily a better player, but I don't think there's a big difference when on. Now, clearly this year from that, and then the last couple weeks, whatever he's been dealing with his hand. And listen, I didn't have any money on the game tonight, but if I had bet, I 100% would have put it on the Bengals plus four. Because while it's a big game for the Ravens, they still have a lot of room for error. They have multiple, they had two less losses, even though they blew last week. This is a game that the Bengals, if they want to make the playoffs, have to win. I know it's on the road. I know it's a short week. I don't care. A lot like the bills last week, it's very, very difficult to go five and five in the conference and have a chance to make a run.

And let's face it, they were already behind the eight ball the way they started. So to like something shady happened in the injury report. And we got to know. Like we're all in bed with these gambling partners and no one more than the NFL. You can't have a guy walk into the stadium with something on his hand, we knew about the finger, right? He'd been battling the finger the last couple of weeks, but clearly this was something different. And I don't give a shit what they say after the game, and I'm sure they're going to try to, you know, kind of downplay it. That is unacceptable. And one thing the NFL is pretty good about is not allowing that to happen. It didn't bother me a couple weeks ago when it happened with the Falcons and like Bijon Robinson got sick the night before.

It's like, whatever, that happens. But in this situation, when a guy shows up to the game was something happen when clearly you've practiced all week and he's not on the injury report, that is not allowed. I don't blame Joe Burrow. That's on the team. And if the league digs deep and finds something weird or nefarious, you fucking hammer him. Because that is not allowed. That is not how this league operates.

When someone is injured, there's no hiding this. It's not the NBA. This isn't golf, which I gamble on a lot, where you never know anything about the injuries. But they love everyone gambling on it. Everything's above board in the NFL. It's why the injury reports are very, very serious. Hell, before gambling was ever legal, whatever, 12, 13 years ago, my first year in the NFL, I used to hand out the injury report.

I mean, the teams take them very, very seriously on both sides, and that was just weird. Now, big picture, it didn't look good. Let's face it. Sitting here, like, I don't have any information, but it looked like some combination of what Rafflesberger did a couple years ago and what happened to Brock Purdy last year, the NFC championship game, when he couldn't grip the ball. And there was a slow-motion play of him trying to. to grip the ball and throw a pass after he came out of the game and he couldn't do it.

And as just a lover of sport and as a lover of great players, I say it all the time. I watch pro sports for the great players. I show up for Lamar, for George's, and Joe Burrell. Some of you maybe show up for the overachievers, the great stories, the seventh rounders who's hanging on, not me. I am watching the NFL or baseball or basketball or whatever. for Lewis Hamilton, Tiger Woods, and Tom Brady. That's what draws the majority of us.

Now, I appreciate a lot of other stuff about football, including the Bengals, who have a lot of really good players, obviously a very good defensive coordinator, but that team goes as Joe Broga. If you would have said to the majority of people that watch Pack 12 football, and while we'll happen a little bit of a comeback on the year before the conference gets blown up,

it was a rough stretch there for a while. I'll be the first to admit. A lot of us started watching a lot of SEC football in the middle part of the 2000s, right? About 2014-15, you know, you kind of had to pay strong attention to the SEC because the football was so bad. But Jake Browning was part of a team coached by Chris Peterson at Washington that was really, really good. The problem was I never thought he was that good. And I watch a ton of college football. And obviously, the hard part is there's some no-brainers.

Like you watch a Nick Bosa, Miles Garrett, certain players. college, like Jordan Addison last year, like, guys are going to play in the NFL. You watch a guy like Jake Browning and you go, I wonder if he's going to be a good coach. Like, I wonder if he'll go on to, you know, run a bank. I wonder what he's going to do with his post-collegiate career. And then you look up several years later and one of the stars in the NFL is walking the locker and they're like, Jake Browning warming up. It's like, Jake Browning is your backup quarterback.

And listen, he's a Sacramento guy. I've followed his career for close to a decade. now it feels like. But it's pretty nuts. And I understand you are limited what you can do. We saw this forever with the Colts. And I think you see this right now with the bills or even the chiefs. They're not going to have a backup that makes substantial money that you're going to feel good about. All your chips are in the middle of the table on the one individual. And it's not that big a deal, right? Until that individual is in the locker room or on the sideline and it's clear he ain't coming back and maybe not coming back for a while.

Now I'm going to give you a glass half full take here. The Bengal team that we saw beat the shit out of the 49ers, that looked like a team that could win the Super Bowl. Like that version of the Bengals was like, damn, this is a squad that can really make some noise. The version we saw last week, just a couple weeks later, against the Houston Texans, obviously Higgins is out with a hamstring injury, which is pretty, I would call a major hamstring injury. It wasn't like a slight tweak. I mean, the guys missed multiple games,

and let's face it, we all know hamstring injuries when it comes to skill guys whose game is predicated on running. It's not an easy thing to come back to from. I mean, he might have been out a long time. So the team that that team is different than this version of the team. And the same thing with the week later when they beat the bills. I think Higgins had, you know, over 100 yards and like eight or nine catches. So you remove him and obviously Joe Burrow, like they're screwed. They're done. They might not win another game. That's how dire, can get. But here's, I'm going to give you the bright side of the equation here. It's like sometimes your season really was kind of weird to begin with. Beside the couple weeks stretch 49ers and bills,

you were off. And more than likely, even if you had stayed healthy, maybe it just wasn't your year. Maybe this was the year, something weird happened, you got bounced in the first round. Aren't you better off in a situation of getting bounced in the first round? Just go 6 and 11? Assuming everything big picture is going to be fine with Joe Burrell, and I'm going to assume that right now. And just restocking the cupboard with, you know, maybe drafting ninth and having the ninth pick in every round. Like, you were never going to have that opportunity ever again. I remember years ago, different scenario here, but the Atlanta Falcons traded up to get Julio Jones. And remember Thomas Demetrov, one of his famous stories was like, he called Belichick.

And Belichick's like, don't do it. It's like, Thomas, good lesson learned. If you're going to make a draft decision, he's probably. the not the guy to call like call Aussie newsome call someone else bill polio some anyone else who might know what they're doing in a draft belichick a lot of other things to ask him for advice Thursday Friday and saturday of a national football league draft i wouldn't call him then but he said belichick said don't do it he did it anyway because he's like with matt ryan we're never going to draft high enough to get a player like this and obviously

hulio went on to be one of the better players in franchise history and it worked well part of it was like they had to trade way up to get that because they were always going to be in the late teens or the 20s with Matt Ryan. Well, this is going to be, I mean, with the Bengals this year, let's just say they don't win another game. And all of a sudden you look at the draft day and they're drafting seventh. Like, you can just remake your team. That happened to Lions last year. Like, lions were already good. And then they also had whatever, the Rams pick. And they turned it into Gibbs and Leporta. It's like they kind of got to restock. And let's face it, you would much rather have the Bengals situation just because you got freaking Joe Burrow than anything the Lions have

and the Lions obviously have a lot going for him. So I don't think it's the worst case scenario, assuming there's nothing like career ender here. If he's out for the season, so be it. Lose out, restock the team. You're going to need some cheaper labor. You need some younger players. Obviously, the T. Higgins situation looms large, but maybe it's just not your year. And it sucks as a football fan not to be able to watch Joe Burrow because he's one of the guys in this league that drives you to TV. He's one of the guys in this league, which kind of makes this thing the behemoth that it is in terms of the amount of us that watch. And the Ravens, like I don't really know what to say. It turned out once he went out, they were never going to

lose this game. I mean, Lamar Jackson was running around just hitting the ground, like, we ain't losing this game. It was fun to watch O'Dale Beckham, who my girlfriend, early on in the game, it might have been their first series. It might have been like the second play of the game. they threw a bomb to Beckham. And actually it looked like he had a step. Lamar overthrew him. And Al goes like, you know, something throw deep to Beckham. And she goes, I didn't know Beckham had a son.

And I looked at him like, Peckham has a son. David Beckham? No, this is Odell Beckham, Jr. No relation to David Beckham. But he looks good, fun player. They're actually a fun team. And I think they're going to look back on that game that they blew against Cleveland and kick themselves.

because that ultimately might be their undoing for the number one seed. But before I hopped on, I wrote their remaining schedule. They're obviously 8 and 3. They have a long break now because of the mini-buy. They play the Chargers next week. They win that. They're 9 and 3. They're in pretty good shape because then they play the Rams, 10 and 3.

Then they play the Jags, who I don't think are as bad as they showed last week, but I saw some quotes from Doug about Trevor's knee not being right. So I think they would have a chance. I mean, they'll probably be favored in that game, 11 and 3. And then they got a really tough stretch at 49ers, Dolphin Steelers. But I think you're looking at a 12, probably best case scenario, 13 win team. And a team now, I think a lot like the Bengals the last couple of years, Joe Burrell proved, like, I'm a championship level player.

Right? Like, I know he hasn't won a championship. But you watch Joe Burrow, you're like, that guy is going to be a champion. if he's on a good team and he stays healthy because he's that good. You like watch James Harden. You're like, yeah, you're never winning a championship. You watch Russell Westbrook, you're like, no fucking chance. None.

Like, you guys are never winning a championship. You watch Joe Burrow, even Josh Allen, I would put Lamar in that category. It's like, to me, they're good enough to win championships. You just got to do it. And I think Josh Allen, a lot like Lamar Jackson, it's like, you got to make some hay in these big games. So clearly this team's really. really good. Defensively, they're good. Their passing game is so much better. We'll see what

happens with Mark Andrews. What do they call it? The hip tackle. I know everyone freaks out on the internet streets. It doesn't bother me as much. I mean, it's just football. You tackle them. No one's ever trying to hurt anyone with tackling. Obviously, it looks like they're going to ban that tackle. I'm not as up in arms about everyone else. I truly believe. Now, I understand the injury risk that comes along with it. But I think it's pretty clear in 2023. No defender is trying to injure anybody. They're just trying to do the best to get a guy on the ground,

which I don't know if anyone played peewee football, high school football, let alone college or the pros. Tackling's hard. It's difficult to get really good players to the ground. I think now, I mean, if you had to handicap, I was thinking about this mid-game, Burrow out, Deshawn out, Rogers out. I mean, Herbert might miss the playoffs.

Like, the Steelers don't have a quarterback. Tua's the Dolphins quarterback. That's no shade. Two has had a good year. Like, this is, the Chief's passing game is questionable. The defense is good, and they're built for the playoffs. And if they have home field, like, this is a moment for Lamar. I mean, there's a decent chance at the AFC championship.

Whether you're hosting or you got to go there is you take it on Moms. You know, and Harbaugh, you taking on Andy. Be a big moment for the franchise. The franchise is big time, right? I mean, toward the end of the game, they show Ozzie Newsom, who once upon a time, the owner said is going to be the highest paid, retired GM in NFL history.

So obviously, Ozzy still plays a role there. He's still around. The Ravens are a high-level fucking franchise. And if I had to bet right now, it feels like some of these injuries with the way things are shaping up, I would go Ravens Chiefs right now is the clear two-headed monster in the AFC.

And then just before we leave this Thursday night game, many of you, if you're listening this, probably didn't see because not everybody has Twitter. And I think one big picture thing when it comes to the sports media, and I think just the media in general, but let's just start with the sports media.

I don't think there's ever been a bigger disconnect with what they get worked up about than what us, the fans, and the people at home consuming the games think about. And ultimately, these games exist, just like anyone in the media, whether you're a writer,

whether you are a TV host, whether you have a podcast or whatever, because of fans. They are the important people here. Why does Amazon dominate? Because they are consumer-friendly and they have a lot of consumers. Without the consumer, there is no Amazon.

Apple doesn't have all the money without all of us buying all the products. The media doesn't exist when it comes to sports if we are not consuming them. We dictate it. And I think sometimes they, feelings and emotions get ahead of themselves. And listen, calling an NFL game, I can't, it's very, very difficult.

I tried to call a game one time in college, a baseball game, and I was like, this is not for me. So I have a ton of respect for that. I do think a lot of the writing community, the guys that write and girls that write, they can be bitter, I think, sometimes, because there is a lot more money in the audio place and obviously on television. And there's a bitterness that I think if you follow a lot of these people on Twitter that they can't even hide. And Carissa Thompson, who has been part of the NFL world for a long, long time, who is, I think, very, very good at her job,

was on with pardon my take, the biggest podcast in America when it comes to sports, and said that a couple times during her career, you know, coming out a half time, the coach didn't come out, she could not grab them, and she essentially made up a report. you know like coach harbaugh said the game plan they're going to stick with the run game and continue to be physical on defense back to you troy i got news for you none of us that watch football and the whole reason any of this exists why amazon paid all this fucking money for the national football league is because of us sitting on the couch streaming that game and listen i'm not trying to throw shade at sideline reporters i'm sure it's a hard gig i've never done it but it doesn't

If they went away tomorrow, none of us would notice. None of us would notice. In basketball, they are so pointless. I personally think you gain little. Now, sometimes with an injury, for sure. I would even be a little worked up if she had just said she had made up injuries. But she literally said that she made up a report talking about like, we're going to run the ball and be physical.

The reports in that situation are always the same. rinse, wash, repeat. They literally never change. And I think sometimes in the sphere of people that cover sports, there is like this inflated self-importance. Like, ultimately this is fun. It's obviously a profession. But it's not that big a deal.

And I think there can be an inflated, and there's no different than coaches and players, anybody. I mean, it's any walk of life. But some of this, the athletic, reached out to Amazon, and they declined to comment. Reached out to Amazon about Carissa Thompson's comments on the podcast? That is, that's insanity. You reach out to Amazon maybe if one of their people got arrested for like domestic violence and were on air

or if they were interested in purchasing, I don't know, the NBA, to reach out that to me is the perfect example of the gap between what's interested the media and what ultimately the consumer wants. And the other thing I find funny, and I saw this a lot from, you know, the media brethren on social media is like, this is what leads to the distrust from the fan in the media. It's like, no dog. We lost trust in you guys a long, long time ago. If you think anyone is up in arms and losing trust over some useless comment after halftime from Pete Carroll or Sean McVeigh, You are living in La La Land.

Okay, let's go around the NFL. I saw a headline today. Obviously, Texas A&M paid Jimbo Fisher $700 million to leave. And they needed a new coach. Well, if you're willing, in all seriousness, they paid him $76 million. I actually saw the breakdown. It's like I think they paid him $19 million.

Next year it's like $6 million. And then for like six straight years, it's $7 million. Listen, I love to work. I've been working a lot my entire life since, I left college. Now granted, I've only worked in one industry. It's the only thing I've ever done is work in some form of football, so I enjoy what I do. But if you paid me a substantial amount of money not to work, and listen, I say it all the time, like money, I don't get that much juice. Now granted, I've never been paid $7 million a year for eight straight years not to work. That's

got to be a pretty powerful feeling. I mean, it really does. We'll leave you a lot of options to do a lot of different things. If you're semi-curious in life, you could just go down a lot of rabbit holes, figure it like with your body and do them. It'd probably be quite the experience, at least for a couple years until you got bored. But rumors were Dan Campbell played at Texas A&M. And here's the thing. We've seen a lot of times in the NFL guys could not hack it. They just did not belong. Most recently, Urban Meyer had no business being in the NFL. But we've seen other guys like have a moment, it's like, you're not an NFL coach. Chip Kelly, like, get out of here.

Nick Saban, come on, go, and they go to the college, and Chip, not necessarily, but Nick Saban, Bobby Petrino, these guys are much more suited for college football. If you win in the NFL, if you're having success, even if you're on, quote, unquote, the shittiest franchise, right? The best franchises aren't even necessarily the biggest brands, just they kind of are because you're more famous. whoever's paying you the most.

Like when Bill Belichick got to the New England Patriots, they weren't some enormous brand in the NFL. He helped create them with Tom Brady to now viewed as one of the big, quote-unquote, brands in the NFL, right? If you're the coach of the Cowboys, if you're the coach of the Steelers, remember last year, or was it two years ago when Mike Tomlin was asked about USC? Would he be interested in going to USC? Why? Because he's like, cool and would recruit well.

And he was offended. I mean, he was offended. I don't blame them. If the Pittsburgh Steelers want you to be their head coach, there is no college job that would even be strong enough for you to pick up the fucking phone. Now, the Lions historically are one of those jobs that like, do you really want to coach the Lions? But if I told you the Lions are good and they're playing the Bears this week,

though I kind of like the Bears plus 8, lions look like they're going to be 8 and 2. And more likely they're headed toward 12 and 13 wins. but this is clearly not just some one-off situation. The rest of their teams in their division don't have quarterbacks. Their team is really, really young. A lot of guys on rookie contracts. And Dan is like kind of fits the city.

So even if Texas A&M was willing to pay him $30 million, and the Lions would be like, Dan, we'll give you like a five, six year contract, but we won't max the money. It ain't even about the money. When it comes to recruiting, the transfer portal, here's the thing. Do you know if you want to transfer in the NFL? I don't have to trade you.

You're like, I want a trade. You can just say, no. Remember the Packers, Aaron Rogers a couple years ago? Like, trade me! And they're like, see you training camp, Aaron? That was the best player in the NFL. And they're like, camp starts July 27th. In college, if I want to trade and I hit that transfer portal,

I literally just leave. When it comes to boosters, in the National Football League, you answer to one individual. It's the owner. In college, you answer to the eight boosters, the athletic director, the provost, the president, and seven other morons. It is not even close. So I understand why Texas A&M thinks their money can buy them anything.

But I also appreciate Dan Campbell. Florio wrote like he already just reached, like his intermediary like, yeah, we're not interested. Like he didn't even use them to get an extension, which I'm sure he's going to get at the end of the season. But I think it's a good example of the difference of the NFL in college. because historically the Lions, if it was college football, like who would they be? I mean, pick a team that is just Boston College. I don't even know.

I mean, who's like the shittiest Rutgers? And even Rutgers have had some moments in my life with Greg Shiano. So I would say the Lions, if it was a college football program, would clearly, of the Power 5, be one of the worst. Yet Dan Campbell doesn't even contemplate leaving, which is the right move because you never leave the NFL. Okay, a couple other things around the NFL. all big week for Pittsburgh and we talked about them earlier this week they're getting DTR you can't listen

they have had one of the crazier statistical seasons uh in terms of a team being outscored being out gained uh and just looking from the eye test abysmal on offense yet they win this game they'd be seven and three now it's on the road divisional opponent things get weird but you're playing dorian thompson robinson who's a really good athlete and who in the preseason looked like, I don't know, he was the next coming of like Lamar Jackson meets Josh Allen. But as we all learn, the preseason does not translate like that. So I'm fascinated to watch this game.

I actually feel bad for Browns fans, not even because I'm like, I don't even like Deshaun Watson. But I like the story of the franchise. I appreciate the fan base at home. This is just, I like this division. One thing I thought about tonight watching the Ravens, play the Bengals. Like there are a lot of guys in the NFL who are probably solid players who I don't know if they could play consistently in that division. It's really cold. It's really physical. I mean,

it just feels like the tough guy division. And you put two of those teams now that they're all pretty good on at the same, you know, playing against each other in any, you know, you take any four and you match them up. You'll get my eyes because there's a physicality to those games. Even the night early on before Borough went out and the Bengals had hope. There's just an edge. There's an edge to their crowd. It's always fucking freezing. For those of us on the West Coast,

I mean, it's cold today in Arizona. It's like 78 degrees. You look up, they're wearing beanies. You can see their breath. There's just a violence, the physicality mixed in with the cold and the weather to that division that I've always appreciated as someone

who hates the cold. I used to ski a lot. It's like, I'm not even interested in skiing. I don't want snow in my socks anymore. I'll just sit in the bar and watch television. Come get me after. But I'm fascinated by that game. Another game I'm pretty interested in is Miami and the Raiders. Now, we've talked a lot this week in the last couple weeks about Antonio Pierce. I actually think this could be a tough spot for him because the more and more I thought about it, I was like, you know, I think I'm going to go to the Draft King Sportsbook and place a pretty big wager on Oregon State this week. And I was like, you know, should I also, you know, should I also,

The Raiders getting a lot of points. And then I was like, I'm going to take a rookie quarterback on the road against Vic Fancio. That seems pretty crazy. Off a buy? I probably need to pump the brakes there. Like, this is a spot. And listen, as someone and you Miami fans get on my ass because I don't put you on a tier. Now, granted, this year, how could I?

I've seen you play real good teams and get worked. It's kind of open it up for you, right? The bills kicked your ass. That Bill's team is long gone. Long gone. Those defensive players are gone. This version of Josh Allen. Even though statistically, I saw someone say,

everyone's acting like he's some scrub. He is statistically easily, even with the game the other night, a top three quarterback in the NFL. He's had a better season than Lamar Jackson. His moments, two of them, have just come on Monday night football. But the totality of his year actually is not very bad. I think we can do that sometimes.

It's always been a Ryan Rosillo thing. And it's so true. You know, in other sports, like you play Sunday night baseball or TNT doubleheader on Thursday in basketball. It doesn't really matter. You play so many games. In football, if you play Monday night football, you play Sunday night football, and you're a prime time, you know, name and you shit the bed, it's like, God, is this guy losing it? Is this guy slipping? He's like, wait, he leads a league in touchdowns.

It's like one bad game, because you might throw five touchdowns, but if you're playing in the morning slate on Sunday afternoon, people change that channel after the second quarter. when you're up by 25 points. I've done that to the bills a couple times this year. Did it twice early in the season. When they played the Raiders and when they played the dolphins, I'm like, this game was over before half. But you watch them on Monday night, you're like, God, Josh Allen, do they need to have an intervention with the guy?

And he's like, actually, I think he's okay. Clearly not for their standards. But overall, I think we've overreacted a little bit there. But this is a good spot for Miami, right? Because you're coming in, you're getting a rookie quarterback, an interim head coach. If you're a real deal team, like, you kill these, fucking guys. You destroy them. You win this game by 25 points. I'll definitely have my eyes there.

I saw that McCaffrey has a chance. He's got, he's like four receptions away from passing Roger Craig as the most receptions through seven years at running back. It really is amazing when, you know, trades can do a couple things for players, right? For Vaughn Miller, it led to a Super Bowl and an enormous payday. And honestly, that payday was all because of that three or four. game playoff stretch. It really was weak. Weak would have been 18 at the time against the 49ers, and then all the playoff games where he had a sack in every playoff game and won a Super Bowl, and he got $55 million from the bills. Listen, I love Von Miller, but an older player, even at the time before he had torn his ACL, that contract was insanity. That was nuts. But

the trade did it. It really revitalized his name. Now, he was older, right? He was over 30. McCaffrey was like 26 years old and rotting away. not the biggest NFL brand, and they're terrible. So, like, no one's paying attention. And he comes to the 49ers, and he's immediately a superstar again, like an absolute, like, rock star in the NFL. And that's what happens when you play for good teams, especially when they're big brands.

And today I saw McAfrey said that Trent Williams, the best player he's ever seen. They asked Trent Williams about it, and he said, that's right back out, Christian McCaffrey. And I think he was being nice, but I think what he's saying is, like, this guy's one of the best players in the NFL. and let's be real.

I know he had some really good years early on in his career, but he had kind of been out of sight, out of mind, injury prone, whatever. The 49ers trade, I mean, changed the course of this guy's career. He's still got a long ways to go, and listen, the running back position, you get injured, but given the coach, given the way this team plays, given how they use them, I mean, if he could stay healthy now for several three, four years, I mean, you'd be talking about a Hall of Fame level player. And that was never going to happen in Carolina.

I know he got to make a lot of money there. He got to have those couple years of doing the cool stats, but it was all kind of hollow. And now he gets to be part of a team that's winning big, and he's one of the engines behind it. So it's kind of cool to see. Okay, let's do the Guinness Bold Take of the Week. Now, I've taken some big swings this year,

and I've missed on a decent amount of them. Then I started getting close. Started saying, this is the week a guy gets fired. Then all of a sudden, Frank Reich demotes himself, and I'm like really close. And then I said, you know, something with K. William's and it almost happened and then last week I said the Houston Texans would go into

Cincinnati they would win the game and CJ Stroud would throw his hat in the ring as an MVP candidate and then it happened well this week I'm going to go against the Houston Texans because I think everyone in their mother and rightfully so based on what has happened so far this year is going to go the Houston Texans could they take on the Ravens could this team with C.J. Stroud handled the chiefs and this happens at every year, a team, especially a younger team, newer head coach, younger quarterback, catches a little fire, everyone bets on them. I love, I don't like, I love the Arizona card. And this is, I love Domingo Ryan's, and I love C.J. Stroud. And I think over the course of the next couple of years,

they are going to be a serious factor if this quarterback can play at this level. Because they are going to be dramatically better the next couple years as they get more draft picks. They still have the Browns draft pick, which could turn out to be pretty good because they might just start losing with Dorian Thompson. This team, to me, is going to be 2024, 2025, watch out. I do think this year, though, they're going to tease us a little bit. As we've seen, I mean, a couple weeks ago, they lost to the Carolina Panthers. I think the Arizona Cardinals this week, who have been a bizarre team. But now that Kyler's back, what if they're actually kind of good now? Just because you're not used to playing, there aren't that.

many guys like him. Unless you're playing Lamar Jackson, how do you get used to? There were a couple scramble runs in that game. I said this last week. I don't know if he's 100%, but he damn sure is closer to 100% than he is like 75. And his speed at 85, 90% is faster than the majority of guys in the NFL. It's why, listen, we can nitpick him. Dude loves a good call of duty, playing with his buddies with an ear set in. You know, don't totally blame him. The graphics in these games now are pretty incredible, especially if you can play online. But when you're making a lot of money to play quarterback needed you in the playbook. And I understand he's driven some people nuts.

Might not have been the most mature guy, but as a physical talent, there's a reason the guy, five foot nine, was a no-brainer, number one overall talent. Like, Bryce Young, you watch him, you go, God, this is going to have to go really well. You can put Kyler on a shitty team running around. You're like, damn, this guy's enormous arm, elite speed, built like a little tank, even though he's short. I kind of think the Arizona Cardinals go in there. not the craziest take. I mean, they're only a four point. I think it actually went up four and a half,

five points. I think everybody, I think the casuals, and I'm technically a casual one I bet, and most times I bet casually in terms of like bet with the people, like bet on the Texans, I'm going against the grain. I like the Cardinals, and I think Kyler Murray goes in there and looks freaking awesome. I think Kyler, here's the other take. I will add to this. I think they're, I'd say 85%, assuming they win some games. and are well out of the top couple picks of Caleb and Drake May. I think they just roll back with Kyler Murray and they use their picks on other players and just for the next couple years try to build around that player.

Because I think you're going to see over the next couple weeks. And listen, he's got his flaws and he's got to prove that he can stay healthy. But there's no lock that like Caleb Williams is going to be dramatically better than Kyler. You know, I think we always do this with college prospects. I'm guilty too. Take this guy. Marvin Harrison's the next Jerry Rice. then all of a sudden Marvin Harrison, good player is never a top seven wide receiver.

He might be, might not be. I was told when Jerry Judy came in the league, he was going to be fucking, you know, the next Marvin Harrison, the dad. I mean, I watch Jerry Judy, decent player, but he's not even like a top 25 wide receiver in the NFL. It's hard. For every prospect that you think can't miss, most of them miss or even never live up to what you think.

Whenever we comp you, like think of who Caleb, and listen, I'm not trying to crap on Caleb Williams ability, but his comp is Patrick Mahomes. Before Patrick Mahomes came around, we'd literally never seen that. Now, you see it happen with so many players and so many sports. After Dremont early on in his career came out and he was like the Swiss Army knife could do everything, every single guy for like five years in the NBA draft who was like kind of a hybrid, didn't have a position, but could do a lot of things like this guy's like Dremont Green. None of them were remotely close to Dremont Green. And obviously it's a higher level when you're talking elite quarterbacks, but I think we just do this sometimes. And I'm not saying he won't be a

really good player. He has a lot of talent, but so does Kyler. And I'd keep an eye on Kyler doing some kind of things that are going to be eye-opening this last month and a half of the season. And I think this leads to Kyler Murray staying as the Arizona Cardinals, which I would not have bet on when the season started. But I think you just kind of paying attention, you see where this is going. Like, Kyler Murray's going to be the Cardinals quarterback in 2024. That's my bold take. brought to you by Guinness, gather your friends, raise your glasses, and toast to a win. Guinness

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Then before I went to bed, I checked again, and they had lost to Bill Self, who has, unlike John Calipari that, you know, rumors are he might be on the hot seat. Bill Self has a contract that pays him even when he's dead. It's not a lifetime. It's, It's a 50-year contract that will just keep paying because of the money. But is Coach Calipari in your neck of the woods

under a little heat, Stucky? Yeah, it was actually, yeah, I mean, there's been a lot of rumors swirling and I've, I shouldn't say I'm a small business owner. It's my wife. And I just...

It's family, family, family. Yeah. I basically am a small business owner for the amount of money I spend there. But the, yeah, I would say, because look, I moved here in 2018 and I think maybe once

and then they lost right away. They haven't been out of the first weekend. This is good. We're going on six years, which by the way, kills the bars here. All I don't care about is Kentucky basketball. But it's been six years.

And this is supposed to be one of the premier college basketball teams. We're not talking about no titles, no final fours, no elite. Just the second weekend. Get through the sweet 16. So people have just grown so frustrated. So this is just like, if they don't get out of the first weekend this year.

Because again, you have, you look at the fact. They got, again, the top recruiting class. It's, you know, five-star freshman, you know, number two and three recruit in the country. So yesterday was actually a really good, the other night was a really good sign because, number one, that none of the, they have a couple bigs who didn't even play due to injuries are just not eligible yet. And they had no size in that game. Dickinson had, I think, 27 points and 20 rebounds. But their freshman looked great.

So this team has potential. But other teams have had potential at Kentucky over the year. So we'll see if Cal can put it together. But I was generally optimistic from what I saw based on how young that team is, without bigs going up against, you know, the number one team in the country. So, yeah, we'll see how it plays out. But there, if there's another flop, especially if they lose to like another St. Then it's over.

Yeah, I follow J.T. Poston, who's a PGA Tour golfer, his caddy. Is a diehard, yeah, diehard Kentucky guy. Oh, yeah, and he was tweeting that he's like, you know, I'm actually, this positive night. It was a good night. So, you know, those Kentucky bat. When I lived in Philly, Jay Wright would kind of come around in like 2010, 11, 12. Like, he became a legend later on in the decade, but people forget early on. he was getting bounced.

And I remember, you know, it was kind of free agency draft time. All the TVs would be on. You hear groans throughout the office. One year they definitely got bounced in the first round, and it was really, really ugly. So sometimes you go, that's a weird thing about college basketball. You could have a couple years. What was it?

Was it Virginia when they lost the first round? Next year they win the national title. So there's, you know. Tony Bennett had that same stigma, especially college basketball. There's so much randomness in it's a tournament. And so, you know, has that now is that the new guy in that aspect is Matt Painter and Purdue. I mean, they've been bounced in the first round as one or two seats the past two years, lost this of one last year. They also lost, people forget because Kentucky did.

Purdue also lost the St. Peters that year after Kentucky did. But, yeah, so a lot of it is, you know, and I remember I lived in Philly too at the time. And Jay Wright used to have that stigma attached to him that he, won it and is now regarded and rightfully so is one of the best coaches in college basketball history and Villanova will start to even see that even more. They lost a pen at the legendary cholesterol the other night. So they're definitely going to go. They're definitely going to be a drop after the Jay Wright left. I joined this gym probably within the last couple of weeks and I was on the stairmaster the other day getting a little sweat and I look over and this guy's wearing

Golden State Warrior shorts, skinny guy, and he's wearing an Arizona State basketball shirt, and I can't really, I couldn't really see his face. Then he kind of turns, I'm like, that's fucking Bobby Hurley. No way. He must have been getting a little workout before going to work. And then I looked up, they just got in their ass kicked by Mississippi State. But I was like, that guy, that guy is college. That guy helped build a sport, you know, and take it to the next level.

I'm like, I hope everyone in this place, I realize I was kind of staring at him, gives this guy the proper respect, absolute legend right there. up. I used to hate him because my dad was a Duke fan and I rooted against Duke. But yeah, what a legend. Which, you know, I just, I think the Arizona State AD just resigned. So I think he's, you know, might be coach for his job. But come here for NFL talk, get a little college basketball talk. Before we dive into the NFL, you know, next week is usually obviously all the rivalry games,

you know, Ohio State, Michigan. I mean, to me, that's, I googled it the other day. 17 million people watched last year was the highest rate. college football game in the last 10 years. I think there's a chance, like, of the last, like, 30 years as the highest rated, most viewed college football game, maybe ever. I think the buzz, the drive, obviously, you know, I was shitting on Ohio State a couple weeks ago.

They're clearly pretty good, and they're definitely, as you said, better on defense now. But that game, I mean, is there any other college football game this year that's going to sniff that in terms of the importance going into it? No, I mean, not until, yeah, the national championship, depending on what you get. Playoffs, yeah. Yeah, the college football semi-final matchup. The, yeah, that will, that'll, if both teams are undefeated, which they should be, then, yeah, that'll smash the, even last year's crazy numbers.

The other thing is that it's on that game, which I actually hate. I mean, I go back at four, sometimes I look at it, sometimes I don't. But that game's on at noon. Yeah, so everyone's awake. And there's no other game on that, you know, gets competing interests. like next week at noon on Saturday. Yeah, there's going to be nothing else to compete. Well, I think these networks know you don't even attempt it.

There's no point. You're not putting Auburn, Alabama. You don't want to waste any viewer. Just let that stand alone because now, I mean, Harbaugh's taking this to another level, as he usually does with all the craziness. And Ohio State's matched them just because they keep winning. So it's just, I mean, listen, I'm not trying to get ahead of ourselves.

We've got a weekend this. we got a big game with a playoff team, but that I fucking can't wait. Yeah, I think he'll ultimately coach in it too because there's like some precedent for two game suspensions for coaches in situations like this. So they suspended him for three.

He'll get his hearing. And it just seems like it'll be one of those things where, you know, like these guys in the NFL and then they go to a hearing and then you reduce it. It'll be like, hey, you got, we'll get you, you got two games you can coach for Ohio State. And yeah, the drama with a sign stealing and him returning and, uh,

a college ball playoff position on the line. I mean, it's the big done championship because the winner gets, yeah, Iowa or Nebraska. You know, they'll kill them. Whether it was a phone call or a text message, I would bet every dollar I have that Harbaugh contacted someone at halftime and said run the fucking ball every single play. They cannot score. And that quarterback, and I got, you know, I'm sure a million Penn State guys,

my Penn State buddies were so fired up on this. these. They're like, this guy, he's like the college version of Josh Allen, and I've watched him in two important games. He stinks. I mean, you can fire the offense court. That quarterback is not good, and Harbaugh has wet dreams about, like Kyle Shanahan. If he could win a game, 7-0 only run plays, they would gladly do it. And that second half, Harbaugh's dreams of games like that since he was a wee lad in like the 70s. Yeah, no one would, no one I don't think anyone in the world would be happier with a win in that fashion than Harbaugh, not even attempting to- Would you say Shanahan and Harbaugh are the only two guys that Dreamer runs?

Yes, definitely, definitely dream of runs. And yeah, I have to give, look, yeah, and he's terrible. There's, and yet he was a very highly rated five-star recruit. There's two kind of transitions when you're, you know, you have all the tools in your five-star. You go from your high school to college, and you don't know. You can have all the tools until the guy gets in there. Just because you're a five-star, it comes down to just milliseconds of pocket awareness, you know, timing, being able to read defense, processing information, milliseconds, right?

It's very crazy away game noise, you know, intense environments. Yeah, you got to have poise, short-term memory. It's all these intangibles when you're talking about all, you know, among the kids that have all the tools. And then, so say you have a kid that, you know, that does that and is really good in college, that's one speed. That doesn't mean that you're going to be good in the NFL. Then that's the next question. Okay, you think you can be quicker and better and more refined than all of that.

And then that's why, you know, you see a lot of these five stars jump to NFL and they don't have it. I mean, look at Bryce Young and Stroud. He clearly has it. But, yeah, that was an amazing game. I actually bet some Penn State reluctantly and came back to Miami, Big Jane games, falls again. But my, the Michigan tackles are way down this year. And Penn State is, you know, some of the best edge rushers in the country. Kid will go in the first round, maybe another in the second. And I said, there are, these Michigan tackles, they've been getting beat by like,

they didn't even play anybody. I watched those first three series and I said, Michigan is not going to be able to throw the ball at all. They, I mean, they, McCarthy dropped back and he was under fire. I said, man, Penn State's going to be live in this game. They're going to have to, they can win this game ugly. And then credit to Michigan, even without the, head coach who, as you said, I'm sure had input. They completely outcoached them because they just made an adjustment. They would run on first, second. Then they would just run like quarterback power, quarterback sweep on third and long,

didn't even attempt to pass the game. And Penn State never adjusted. They're still rushing the edges and then they were given up lanes. Just that coaching mismatch and James Franklin got outcoached again, shocker. Well, then to me, that's a good little nugget right there because if Michigan handles business, wins against Ohio State and is in the play. playoffs, whether Oregon makes a run. I mean, I watched that game against USC.

Their pass rush, they got dudes. Obviously, Florida State has the big time pass rusher, and they historically always have good defensive linemen. We know. Alabama is that they get there, too, yeah. They have great. Alabama and Georgia. I mean, both those two teams are just going to have, I don't know,

NFL defensive linemen. So that's something I didn't realize that. I mean, I don't like them as much for everyone anointing them is just going to win the national title. If that is a bugaboo against the teams that you have to, play in those final. Like you're not getting TCU this year, right? You're getting, you're getting a team that's going to have NFL pass rushers. Hell, even if Washington makes it, one of their pass rushers is really good. He's a first round level talent. So you're going to have to

be, you're not going to be able to do that right in the playoff games. Run the ball, like Kyle Shanahan against the Aaron Rogers, whatever five years ago with Jimmy Garablo. You're going to have to pass. Yeah. And Michigan's run numbers are way down this year. That's a whole way down. I mean, they were running wild best. year and you know they they had a left their right tackle was kind of weak last year their center got drafted in the first or second round they got another kid who's pretty good from Stanford who's I think a step below but their right tackle is a weakness last year he's still there the left tackle got drafted by the dolphins and the replacement that is this Arizona state transfer who just

is getting beat and it's affecting their run game as well so the run game hasn't been as good now they played nobody and they got away with it all year but that's one of the reasons McCarthy had has such good numbers going into last week because they weren't running the ball well they were throwing it and they were playing all these bad secondary so yeah i think the ultimate downfall this michigan team is going to be that offensive line um but uh we shall see i also can't wait for iowa state michigan okay one big game this week you mentioned the line has shifted over the last this week i mean Oregon state is really good i think if i'm ucla and i fire Chip Kelly, I mentioned this on the podcast yesterday.

Jonathan Smith is my hire. He's from Pasadena, what he's done at Oregon State. His team is just kind of, now he's a Chris Peterson disciple, kind of wired and built like some of those Boise teams, a little different in the sense that the transfer portal, his starting quarterback. Speaking of five-star guys that couldn't handle it. Listen, DJ hasn't turned himself into some first-round player,

but he's definitely, I would say, resurrected his career a little bit there, and this team is really physical. Washington has just not looked the same since that Oregon game when Oregon has kind of ascended even though it looks like these two teams are destined to play each other, but, you know, the Apple Cup can get weird, and it's not inconceivable all of a sudden Washington is going to struggle to win these two. They're an underdog. Now, I've been to Corvallis when I was scouting, tiny little town that loves their team, especially when they're good, that place is going to be fucking bananas. I mean, it's going to be, it's going to be an intense environment. This is just

kind of light up the scoreboard versus just tough physical team. Not that Oregon State can't score, but I mean, under Jonathan Smith, they're really more of a run the ball, throw the ball to the tight end type operation. I would say over the last couple years, is that fair? Yeah, I mean, this is a team that's built like more of a, you know, a premier team in the 90s. Yeah. They have arguably, I think they're going to get their star center back to speak from injury too. They have arguably the best offensive line in college football. And they're all just older experienced dudes. Their offensive line is great.

They have two really good running backs, and Damien Martinez, Deshaun Fennwick. This team is an elite of running the ball. And Washington cannot defend the run. I mean, at all, their bottom five and things like line yards, which look at like the push that they give up, bottom five in rush success rate allowed.

And if you look at some of the teams that they play that actually can run the ball well, I mean, USC was running just wide open. but every one of the runs was 10 to 20 yards. So, I mean, even like Utah last week, you go back to Oregon, was running all over them. So this Washington run day is very vulnerable. And the, so what I think is going to happen, Oregon State should be able to move the ball at will here, just on the ground. And then safeties are going to have to come down.

And this Washington defense, I mean, look, Washington has been very fortunate. They beat Oregon by three. Oregon can't get its fourth down. They beat Arizona State by a touchdown at home. they don't score a touchdown. I was a say, can't make a field goal, then throws a pick six at the end of the game to lose. They've only beat Stanford by nine. You know, Stanford is 500 yards in that game.

Then they beat USC by 10 in a back and forth game. And then last week, they only beat Utah by seven. So they've won six straight games by 10 or less. They've been, and they've had injuries at safety, and they just don't have the same depth of some of the premier teams. Yeah, so they've had other injuries on defense, and this defense is vulnerable. So I think Oregon State, who by the way, you mentioned Corvallis, 17 and 1 against the spread at home in their past 18 home games.

17 and 1 insane. So, yeah, so I think Oregon State's going to better move the ball. Now, Washington, especially if they get McMillan back, they already have two of the best for other receivers in the country and you have Phoenix at quarterback. They're going to be able to throw it a bit. They can do that against anyone. And Oregon State, two good safeties.

Corners, little weak. They're just okay. So Washington's going to be able to throw it. But what Oregon State does really well and does better than almost any team in the country because they're just so well coached is they are elite in the red zone and on offense and defense. So number one, because they can run the ball so well. They just finish drives off with touchdowns more times than that. And that's going to be easy to do against Washington.

And then they kind of bend but don't break on defense. Washington, meanwhile, they're really bad on the red zone on both ends. Part of that is their offense. Once they kind of get reduced in space, it's harder for that offense to operate. So I think Washington is going to be able to move the ball. I mean, that's just what they do. They're going to lead offense. But I think Oregon State's going to get a couple stops in the red zone, and they're going to finish off more of their drives of a touchdown. That's what's going to go down to. I mean, this game should be close, competitive. But it's a clash style. I mean, if you, you're going to have this one team that wants to line up and shotgun, throw it all over the field, and the other team that wants to kind of just grind and pound. you to death. And they can hit explosive runs too. So yeah, I love this. The atmosphere should be

great. I bet Oregon State. I think Washington goes down. And then Oregon State could knock off Washington and then, you know, that gift with the groomed ripper. And then next week they could beat Oregon, knock Oregon out. And this is what the Pact 12 does. They usually catalyze themselves. And they would go to the Pact 12 championship game. I got the Draft King Sports. casino right down the street from my house. I think I'm going to go down there tomorrow and place a large wager on Oregon State. That game's a night. I think that's the type game. You just control the clock. You don't give their offense a chance. I like Jonathan Smith. Could be a nail in the coffin of his pursuit to a new, you know, I don't even know if he'd leave. He's from there. He was a

quarterback when Chad Johnson was the wide receiver. But you win a game like this with everyone paying attention on a kind of a down week night game. I mean, it's, That'd be a big moment for the dude. So I'm a giant Jonathan Smith fan. Let's get in the NFL. The Rams, Stetson Bennett made an appearance a couple weeks ago at Georgia, so he's alive, but he's not on the Rams. So they had to sign Carson Wentz,

but it looks like Matt Stafford's back this week playing Seattle, who wins a lot of weird games. Their games are never easy, though they're clearly headed to the playoffs. Sean McVeigh, a little bye week, take deep breath. Baby, you know, what do you think? Rams plus one at home against Seattle? Yeah. This game's in L.A., right?

Yeah, I like the Rams here. This is part of the circle of life in the NFC West. There's like certain teams. And, you know, now because like Arizona has changed a little bit. But it used to be, you know, the Rams own the Cardinals, who on the 49ers. who own the Rams, who also own the Seahawks, who on the 49ers. Like, this is what it used to be, and there was just certainties that match up well. One of them is the, and this one still holds, is the Rams own the Seahawks.

McVeigh just owns that defense. Now, they don't run pure cover three like they used to, but they still run a good amount in Seattle, and McVeigh just rips it apart. Nine and one against the spread in their past ten meetings, including the postseason. Even last year, the Seahawks had to win twice to get into the playoffs late in the season against the Rams. The Rams had John Wolford, and then they signed Baker Mayfield off the street. The Rams covered both those games. The Seahawks won by three and three. They barely won both of those games. Go back to week one. I mean, Stafford absolutely dominated them, and they ran away

with it in Seattle. So, and by the way, I think Seattle has San Francisco, a little bit of a, and, you know, you have the Rams coming off of a buy, getting healthier. They should get their linebacker back, their right tackle back. And then, Stafford's back. Stafford. And, you know, the Seahawks coming off a hard-to-a-fought game, 49ers on a short week coming up. So it's a bad situational spot. But this, you know, what I, what ultimately it's Matt Stafford and those receivers are going to be able to rip apart what I think is a semi-overrated Seattle defense. I mean, look, you saw what happened when they went to Baltimore last week. Sam Howell looked like an all-pro for through all, I mean, just absolutely turn them up.

They don't get a ton of natural pressure. I think they're secondary. Love the kid Witherspoon, but just as a whole is attackable. And Gino Smith, I think, will make a key mistake or two here. And Rams will come out of the buy. McVeigh, good off a buy, great off of a loss. One of the most profitable head coaches in NFL history off a loss. And this is just a great matchup for them.

Rams match up really well. No auto attack that defense. So, yeah, I'll take the Rams plus one at home. and see how. Okay, the Lions, it wasn't a prime time game, but it was the afternoon game on a shitty slate and everyone was watching Lions Chargers get an enormous win and kind of solidify themselves as clearly, you know,

Niners, Eagles, them, Cowboys, Big Four in the NFC by far. There's no one else that is even in their level. Division games get weird, and listen, I ever flus why, I think physically he looks terrible, like, bro, needs a tan, needs to eat, looks like he knows he's going to get fired. Their defense has been playing better over the, these last several games.

Division games, just, I don't care what your record are. There's also a human element to this. Like, at this point, I know the Lions haven't done anything, but they're clearly good, and they got up for the Charger game. Like, it's hard to watch the Bears and take them as seriously when you're playing a Division 2 quarterback. I guess Fields could start this week, so he's going to have fresh legs. That makes them a little more dangerous.

I mean, Badgett at any moment could have a decent play, but he also can look pretty terrible. element running here. I think some of these division games, Suckie, I think I might, the giants I would throw away right now, but you get more of a touchdown. I don't care how bad the team is, especially if you have your starting quarterback. Is that a bad philosophy to have late in the year? Because I think everyone's all just blowouts.

That's not usually the way it works. Yep. Yeah. I mean, if you go back historically, divisional dogs of seven or more at any point in the season are like 54% against the spread over the past 50 years. That's really, really good. Everywhere else you look, it's 50% just in an efficient NFL market at close. And, you know, teams that are, if you even filter it further, like teams that have been covering a lot and against winning teams where the market might be a little inflated in, you know,

November, December, it gets up to like 59, 60%, which this fits. So, yeah, I think this line is just a little bit too high. It's coming down. I think it should be a touchdown, but it's still eight. I played some eight and a half, nine, nine and a half. Fields should play. I was announced that he's good to go. You got a little couple extra days of rest here, too. They played on Thursday night, so a little extended by. I think this is the peak of the market on the lines. They're really good. Their defense is still not good. They played some horrendous quarterbacks this year, or like early in the season, backups and just bad quarterbacks. And they got, they numbers were a bit inflated. Anytime they've stepped up in class, they can't get a stop.

And they can't stop any mobile quarterbacks, you know, even quarterbacks have moved a little bit. I mean, you saw what Herbert did last week. Lamar Jackson, I mean, just ran them out of the building. So their secondary, they're secondary stinks. Horrendous. So, yeah, the Bears, offensive line is, they're getting a little bit better. Their offensive lines healthier. Fields, apparently, from some of the things I've read, he's worked, like his five and seven step dropbacks where he was so slow and, like, just, and then, you can't do that in the NFL. Apparently he's like sped up to, you know, an NFL over the, that's what he's been working on.

So him just getting back there quicker. But you have him using his legs here, you know, you have a healthier wide receiver room that's improved. And then you mentioned that the defense. Bears run defense is top five in the NFL this year. So the run-dee's been really good because, you know, they spent all their money on their linebackers. But the over the past three or four weeks, their defense is trending up in the secondary because their secondary is healthy. you know, Jalen Johnson's playing better. You got Jackson and Bristker back at safety.

And both your corners are actually playing pretty well. Gordon and Johnson. They're one of the top five teams the NFL defending number one receiver. So they could kind of hang in the run game, hang against Amman Ra. They can kind of hang around here. And why is this, the secondary is not only is it healthier. You also can get an edge rush now because you had sweat. You had nothing.

You had in Gokwe. Who can still get there once in a while, but he's a lot. older and then teams just say, all right, we'll take you away. But now you have sweat, you know, against the Panthers. They were getting a ton of pressure. Before that, they were dead last the NFL and pressure rate. That obviously helps the secondary as well. I don't they're going to get a ton of pressure. The line's offensive line is elite, but this defense is definitely better than the numbers it's put up. So defense is improving. Fields back. Pretty good matchup here. Can use his legs. We'll hit some throws against this bad line,

secondary. Divisional game catching over a touchdown. Got to go with the bears here. I think one of the weirdest seasons we've ever seen is the Browns, when you factor in all the weird shit with DeShon Watson. Because it was clear earlier. Like, God damn, this defense is elite. And, you know, then you lose Chubb like they did. Was that a Monday night football? Yeah, I was against Steelers on Monday night football.

They just had some devastating injuries. And then he finally, however many games into his career, technically it's more than 12, but it's his 12th start. He has the best half of football he'd ever had, right? 14 to 14 had a two-point conversion, had a touchdown throw. He just looked like a solid player. And if he was a solid player, you went like, why couldn't that team be in the AFC championship if he's just solid? And then a couple days later, he's out for the season with a broken bone or something in his shoulder. It's still bizarre to me, whatever, 24 hours after it was announced, but it is what it is.

I mean, he's crying in his press conference, like he's gone. So now they're going with the backup quarterback. to me this definitely, I don't know, on the short term, you might get a little juice, but the long term, like, you look at their schedule, it is manageable, but I can't take them seriously as a playoff contender now with him gone.

DTR starting, clearly you might as, what's the point? We're not in trying to just win now mode to try to get Deshaun back, and he's gone, you might as well just go with the young guy. That makes me nervous, though, man. I mean, I think a huge advantage he had

in the preseason, DTR, who was, I'd say one of the guys that everyone went like, God, is this guy a star? He was a fifth year senior. He had played forever in college. You know, the preseason there aren't. You're just playing the same defense over and over. And then we saw him in the real game against the Ravens, and it was a joke.

So playing the Steelers, you know, I don't really love. Now, this game is at home, but still, I guess that Ravens game was at home too, huh, when he got the start because they just beat the Ravens in Baltimore. Yeah. Listen, the Steelers offense makes you nervous. I don't give a shit if they're playing Alabama. But I just have a hard time rookie quarterback who just looks so bad. And I think you've got to throw away that preseason.

I can't really bet the Steelers because they play in the same freaking game all the time. But I don't know. The Browns make me nervous. Yeah, I played the Browns here. I wouldn't have laid over three. Last week, we didn't recap last week. I could tell you about the Steelers. luck because I watched it first hand last week.

We had three and a half to Packers and he's throwing a touchdown and bounces off the DB and lighten to the safety's hand. Yeah, not only that, yeah, that was what we did. Luckily the Texans and Cowboys got their easy. Packers should have covered. They, the two things happened. They missed an extra point. Otherwise, they would have tied the game a million times.

They went up and down the field. They had 400 yards of offense. This dead offense. By the way, I think the Steelers defense did overrated. They have two, they have great defensive line and edge versus they're going to make plays. But Jordan Love, all. of a sudden looked like an all pro last week, moving the ball up and down the field. How about a couple weeks ago?

Will Levis against the Steelers? Everyone's like, oh, you can't complete a pass now. So this Steelers defense think might be a bit overrated. But last week, there's a backwards pass. Kenny Pickett just turns around, throws it backwards, three yards. It's clear. Packers get it, go to the three-yard line. They reviewed it and just said it stands.

If you haven't seen that, I was. I miss that. Absolutely perplexed. The luck that the Steelers have had, they've had six wins all by one possession, all in comeback fashion. They've been outgained in all nine games. There's only been 20 teams over the last 100 years that have been outgained in all nine games.

That's the company that they're in. They're the only team of the winning record, and they're six and three. They're expected wins if you go based on performances, two. They should be basically playing like a two and seven team. Go back to the Browns game. They came back to beat the Browns. Browns. You know, they had two defensive touchdowns late.

They had negative yards over the final 20 minutes, and they came back from 10 down with negative yards. This team is a complete fraud. I mean, like, their offense is so bad. It's poorly schemed. Pickett is horrendous. They're just getting so lucky in so many facets, and there's going to be a ton of regression coming.

Kind of reminds me of that team that started out like, what, 10 and O a couple of years back, and then they took their medicine the rest of the. away. But yeah, so when I look at this game, I wasn't going to lay over three with a low-scoring game. And for what it's worth, this is, the spread is now Browns minus one. And I like Cleveland here. Totals down to 33. We, and if you go back, I don't know, this is maybe kind of random. Go back over the past 30 years. Home teams in divisional games with a total of 34 or less have gone 25 and 8 against the spread, 67, 76%. I don't. know why like why could just be random it's a small sample size or it could just be like you these

games are super low scoring and the home team just makes another play in front of the crowd i don't know but the interesting thing is that we haven't seen this scoring uh isn't as low as it used to be the last time we saw this 2012 spread was one total was 33 brown's hosting the steelers brown starting a rookie quarterback uh in that game brown's win on eight Pittsburgh turnovers. So that was the last time we've seen it. I found that interesting when I was digging into the game. But I just trust the Brown's defense here.

I think they're the best defense in the NFL. They're going up against this horrendous, horrendous Steelers' offense. It couldn't do a thing in the first matchup. I mean, literally a thing. DTR looked horrendous, but was playing against a really good Ravens defense. Found that he was playing starting that day, that morning, wasn't running with the ones.

I mean, that's an impossible task for a rookie quarterback. So he at least got his beak wet. I liked what I saw from college. I don't think they're going to ask them to do much. I mean, they're going to hand it off on it and then rely on their defense. After that game against the Ravens, you know, and this game is huge for the Browns. They're just going to say, look, we'll run, run, run. Maybe we'll take a deep shot where if you throw a pick, a play action.

Why don't they go Michigan, Michigan Penn State level game plan? Should. I actually, I suggested on my podcast that I would punt on first. down. Every first down I'd punt because you take away the Steelers voodoo of like fumbles and then you maximize the amount of times that Kenny Pickett has the ball against that defense. So I would just, I would just not have a quarterback. My quarterback's just sitting there in case I'm down late. That's it. But I would just punt on first down. It's only semi-joking. But the Brown's defense is the best unit in this game with two questionable, you know,

quarterback situations and it's going to come down to who can make a play on defense. I'm going to trust the Browns at home. I think DTR will look a little bit better. There's a ton of regression coming for the Steelers team that just is getting lucky every single week in the fourth quarter. And that just simply won't keep up. So I think D.T.R. will look a little better, but the Browns aren't going to do much here on offense. And I think the Brown's defense will come to play and ultimately win this game. It'll end like, but win it like 13.10. So yeah, I'll take the Browns minus one. I was going to say 13-9.

That feels like this game. It feels right. Okay, Stucky, go Beavs. And let's enjoy the weekend. Let's do it. Let's get to the window with the beavers. And yeah, good luck to see you. Do it, maybe.

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