The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Changes in Pittsburgh, What's Next for the Steelers, Weekend Picks

Episode Date: November 22, 2023

John reacts to the news that the Steelers have fired their OC Matt Canada, did this decision come from ownership or was it Mike Tomlin's, and will this move give the offense a boost moving forward? Lastly, John is joined by Stuckey from The Action Network. Steelers Fire Canada - 5:50 Stuckey - 24:40 Michigan - OSU - 29:15 Steelers - Bengals - 33:00 Saints - Falcons - 37:25 Bills - Eagles - 41:53 Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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Dotrafkings.com slash football terms. What is going on, my people? John Middilcock 3-and-out podcast. Happy Thanksgiving from my family to yours. Hopefully you guys are having a great week, relaxing. If you're listening to this on a Wednesday or Thursday, enjoying some football, enjoying your family, having a drink, kicking back, relaxing,

or making food and being really stressed out because a lot of people are in your house. I can relate to that as well. But we're going to have Stucky on, do some gambling. We recorded this on Tuesday. A look ahead to the Michigan, Ohio State game, some games on Sunday as well. I was just going to do that. And then Matt Canada, the Steelers fired their offensive coordinator. So I was like, you know, I got a few thoughts on that.

So we're going to open the show with some thoughts on Matt Canada, the Steelers. When you draft a guy who just isn't good enough, it results in this. And we'll go from there to Stucky. And this will be no podcast on Thursday. And I will have something out on Friday morning, probably some reactions to the games on Thanksgiving Day, as well as maybe a look ahead to just some big picture thoughts for Sunday as well. So give you a little podcast for if you're running around on Friday or Saturday. You know, a little something to listen to.

So, you know, we work. That's what we do. And it's not acting. Like, we're digging ditch. It's just podcast. And so I thought I'm going to be watching the games anyway. Pump the record button Thursday night, maybe after a few cocktails and see where she goes. But other than that, subscribe to the podcast, wherever you may listen.

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And it's the first time in season they fired a coach since 1941. Let's face it. There was a lot of pressure on this team coming into the season. They have not won a playoff game since 2016. They have been nowhere near what they have been. I would say through the majority of my life in the 90s, the 2000s, and even the early 2000 teens, because their quarterback position has not been very good.

They have not been good on offense. Their defense, T.J. Watt, star. Trade for Minka Fitzpatrick, star. Highsmith, best second rush for the league. I got good players. Joey Porter, going to be a really good player. I don't care how many pass interference penalties he gets. Dude can play for my squad any day of the week.

But their offense is anemic. It's not very good. And it's not because, well, they don't have any players, like the New England Patriots. They have multiple wide receivers that we'd all take. They have a running back who I just do not understand why he ever comes off the field for Najee Harris. Jalen Warren, player.

But here's the thing. Matt Canada, we can separate this. objectively, he was a terrible offensive coordinator. He had zero games with 400 plus yards. This is in 44 games as Steelers O.C. They had one games of 300-yard passing. They had two games of 30 points. They had seven games with two plus touchdowns.

They had 20 games with 20 first downs or less. 28 games with 20 points or less. He was not very good. Fire him. I'm not going to argue that he should have kept his job or should be like some highly thought of offensive coordinator. He stinks. So when you look on the internet and you see all these places at penguin games

all over the country, Steelers channing fire Canada, I don't blame them. I'm always pro fan. They make the world go round when it comes to sports. Without them, we don't have any of this. And when you're a Pittsburgh Steeler fan, you know what a good team looks like. And this team despite being or I mean having a good record, they don't look very good because their offense is anemic. But when you have a quarterback who is not very good and isn't very talented,

Bill Walsh could be your offensive coordinator, Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan could be your offensive coordinator, and it is going to be a struggle. It's always my argument with Bill Belichick. It's like, well, look what Bill's done without Tom. Well, yeah, no coach is good without a really good quarterback. Why did Jimmy Johnson go into the Cowboys Ring of Fame? Because he drafted Troy Akeman.

How did Bill Walsh, I don't know, become Bill Walsh? Because he drafted and coached Joe Montana and then traded for Steve Young. To be a good coach in football, it's impossible to not have a talented quarterback. And the better your quarterback is, the more legendary you become as a coach if you know what you're doing. Is Mike Tomlin a good coach? I believe so. But if I give him Kenny Pickett or Mack Jones or Zach Wilson, he has no fucking chance. Why? Mike Tomlin doesn't know anything about offense, just like the majority of defensive coaches

in this league. He is beholden to his coordinator. So when he hires a Todd Haley and Ben's still playing well, or a Bruce Ariens and Ben's Young, you're going to be good on offense. You are because he's a great motivator. He can lead the troops. He can stay on guys. He can ride the wide receivers or running backs when they're acting like idiots. He can look at offensive linemen and get the most out of them. But when it comes to scheming the offense with the limitations at quarterback, he brings nothing to the table. Just like John Harbaugh or Mike Frable or just go around the league. They are, like, it's all about the offensive coordinator and the quarterback.

And yet, you can get rid of the offensive coordinator who's not any good. I agree. But your quarterback also stinks. And when you're desperate in a draft, and listen, all teams are desperate in the draft. They all have needs. But when you force a position player, let's say a wide receiver, a corner, or whatever, and it doesn't work out, it usually doesn't derail you. But when you force a quarterback at 15 like the Patriots with Mac Jones

or 20 like the Steelers with Kenny Pickett, for that guy to ever be the best possible quarterback, everything has to go right for him. The talent around him has to be awesome. He has to stay in a good mindset. He obviously has to stay healthy. He needs a great offensive coordinator. He needs a good defense.

One little bit of a curveball with this team, you're screwed. And most teams are not perfectly built with the salary cap. This is not 1993 and Eddie de Bartolo and Jerry Jones can just buy the squad. You're going to have holes. You're going to have limitations. And listen, not every coordinator, all coordinators aren't created equal. So I was thinking about this this morning when I saw the news that they fired Matt Canada. Who in their right mind is going to want this job?

Wait, like I got to coach Kenny Pickett. He's not any good. And here's the thing. You know right away, a lot of guys, just because you're productive in college, it doesn't mean shit. And the reality, and Mack Jones was for a year, just like Kenny Pickett was for a year. Now, I would say the difference between those two players, Mac Jones was a backup, the majority of his career, did not come in until Tua got hurt, I think, against Mississippi State

when he hurt his hip. Kenny Pickett was, I think, started four years and had one really good season. It was his fifth year starting in the program. obviously had Jordan Addison. I mean, look at that. The guy's pretty good. Made him look pretty good. Is that a little Johnny Mansell, Mike Evan,

situation? Jordan Madison's going to play in the NFL for a long time. But as long as the Pittsburgh Steelers roll out, like, okay, Najee Harris, if you had a redo on the draft, you wouldn't have drafted him in the 20s, right? We know that for a fact. If they could get a redo on that one, they wouldn't have.

But it doesn't kill you. You get another running back, you just keep playing him more. It doesn't derail your franchise. But when you go all in and all your chance, chips are in the middle of the table on this player as they are when you draft them at 20 and Mitch Trubisky is your backup, which you've extended twice, you're just fucked. And I think the big picture question mark is, I like Mike Tomlin. I like him a lot.

But they're not going anywhere. There's nothing he can do. And in fairness to him, he's not the general manager, right? He doesn't pick the players. They're a GM and head coach. They separate it in that franchise. Plus, the owners play a big role. Mike Tomlin can get up there and take responsibility all he wants.

You can't convince me that the ownership did not play a role in this. I'll never believe that, especially when the news breaks Tuesday morning. To me, a coach pulls the trigger immediately if that's what he's thinking. Not 24 hours later. Look at Sean McDermott. To me, that's a Sean McDermott move with Ken Dorsey. They lose at night, boom, he's fired the next morning. That's how a coach operates.

typically how these things happen. When it takes 24 hours, I got that thing red flag from a mile away. That's not how this organization operates. But if you're the ownership, you're like, God, we got some talented players. What the hell is going on? And it all gets back to when you draft the wrong quarterback, good freaking luck. Look at the Jets. They thought they got bailed out until Aaron Rogers ripped his Achilles five plays into

the season, and then they got to go roll back to that guy and they are completely screwed. The 49ers, the football gods, threw them a bone. they would have been royally screwed. They would have had to play a guy who's not any good. But luckily, Brock Purdy fell into their lap and they kind of struck oil. That's not normal. Most times when you draft a quarterback high, you just play him for several years. And if he's not good enough, you're just going to end up losing.

It doesn't matter who the coordinator is. And I think the Pittsburgh Steelers have big picture, major question marks. What are they going to do? Like, go get Kirk Cousins off a torn Achilles? Like their options are just very limited in fairness like listen the Saints gave Derek Carr a lot of money It has been a disaster given how much they paid him but if I was going to defend the Saints What were there other options? What were they going to do? They didn't have their pick because the Eagles had it Right so they had some money they had to make a move he was available he had been a

Servicable starting quarterback I do understand the logic it just hasn't worked I'll never understand the logic in the draft taking a guy who doesn't have the talent high. I never will. And I've argued with buddies of mine that are college scouting directors that say, what the hell is the difference? If you think the guy can be a starting quarterback and you're willing to take him in the second or third round, why wouldn't you take him in the first round? Well, there's economics behind it. What I have to pay the guy, the resources I have to invest in him. Like, well, he might not have been there when you draft in the second round. Who fucking cares? Because the chances this guy's going to be an above

the average player, history would show us are low, especially when he lacks the talent. So I wasn't for the Mac Jones pick, and I wasn't for the Kenny Picket Pickett pick. Because when you take guys with limitations, like historically, the guys with quote unquote limitations, don't go in the first round. Think about some of the guys in the NFL right now that had question marks coming out. Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, even Drew Brees went in the second round. And I understand there's quarterback inflation. that's fine. That's part of the world we're living in. Just like us when we go to the store, shit is very expensive.

I just bought this honey baked ham for Thanksgiving. I swear to God from the honey baked ham store, which is incredible. The same ham a couple years ago was half the price. But if I want that ham, that's what I have to pay for. But one thing I know when I get that ham and I serve it on Thanksgiving, everyone's got a fucking smile on their face. Why? That honey baked ham from the honey baked ham store is elite. This is not a paid advertisement either. it doesn't get any better. But when you draft a guy with limited ability and then you start bitching him on and two or three years later that he's not good enough, that's on you.

Like that is your problem. Like last year when Matt Patricia wasn't a good offensive coordinator, that wasn't on the offense, that was on Bill Belichick. That was his fault. But now it's like another coordinator's going to come in. Like ultimately you make a change with Ken Dorsey. We've seen Josh Allen. He's got a lot of ability.

He's made a lot of plays. He's been a star in the league for a little while. the coordinator in the scheme does impact them. I don't care what scheme you run with Kenny Pickett. I want to play you if I'm a good team. I want to play you. And they screw themselves the moment they draft. Good guy.

That's the other thing. Sometimes you can overvalue the character, how intelligent a guy is. Can you play or not? This is the pro football. This isn't pro being a good guy. And the majority of guys in the NFL are good guys. So it's like, are you good enough? The margins are so small.

He won't throw the ball over. the middle of the field. He just, the other thing watching him, and I've gambled on the Steelers for some reason a lot this year, and luckily it's paid off a couple times, but I felt very lucky. A huge part of getting a guy like that, this goes to Mack Jones. And honestly, like Jimmy Garoppos and Derek Carr's and now Brock Purdy, like their knowledge of the game, right? Their knowledge of the playbook.

Them being on the same page as their wide receivers, them understanding from audibles and checks and just, that's got to be a point of difference for them. their freaking brain because their physical abilities that they could never dream of doing things that Mahomes that Josh or Lamar or Herbert can do. So they have to win upstairs and you watch Kenny Pickett. I watch a dumb player. I watch a guy that I don't feel like he knows what's going on. So he doesn't have the skills and then I don't see a smart player, it's over.

So whether it was Bill Walsh, like I said, or Matt Canada, this offense was never going to be good. You can rattle off all the stats and you can rejoice. I don't think it changed as much at all. I'll bet against Kenny Pickett and I'll bet against Mack Jones any day of the week when you draft those guys high. My philosophical belief on those type talents will never change.

I'm kicking myself because I picked the Pittsburgh Steelers to be an AFC contender and I knew right away I was, you can't be with that level of quarterback play. It's impossible. It's not going to happen. And their team clearly just isn't good enough. The other thing is,

I like Mike Tomlin, lot, but he doesn't influence the game, right? He's a motivator on game day. He doesn't call the defense. He doesn't call the offense. So, like the 49ers, for example, have had limitations or the Rams on certain years, but their head coach on a given week on Sunday can impact that game with his play calls. Like, ultimately, Mike can only go so far.

And this would be the pushback of hiring in this modern day football, which is an offensive sport, like it or not. defensive guys, especially defensive guys that don't call the defense. And you just have to wonder, like, no one's on scholarship in the private sector. I don't care what industry you work in, right? And listen, Tomlin's been very successful for them, but you have to wonder, like, would you think about it at the end of the season if you end up going nine and eight and you miss the playoffs or even if you make the playoffs of a seven seed and are bounced easily?

Like, what's the point? What's the hamster wheel of this situation? Do you give him a chance to find, you know, he had Rathsburger forever to maybe, you know, write his wrong with the GM and try to bring in another quarterback? Or you just say, you know, maybe it's time for a reset. Listen, I don't have the answer. I would struggle firing him, but I do think it's fair to ask that question today. And before we get out of here, can I tell you about my friends at Uber Eats? It's time for this week's player I thought might give almost, almost anything to redo his game.

brought to you by Uberites. Well, if you watch Monday night football, the Chiefs can't catch a cold. Every ball goes right through their hands. And Marquis Valdez Scantling, who we've all watched for years, because for a long time he played with Aaron Rogers. And now he's playing with Patrick Mahomes.

Like, if you're a wide receiver, and I say, who'd you play with? You're like, oh, Aaron Rogers, Patrick Mahomes? Like, what a career you probably had. Well, I struggled to catch the ball. And regardless of all the drive, You get in a situation where you go deep, look like a skinny post or something, and you beat your man and one of the great players in the history of the league puts an absolute dot on your hands. And you had to lay out a little bit, but you got to catch that ball.

So regardless of all the other drops, if you catch that ball and put the team in position, even if you fall down immediately and they put them in position to score and you're a huge part of them winning the game, no one's really talking about the drops. But the ball. And listen, catching the football from these good guys is difficult, but you're a wide receiver. And if you can't catch the ball, it's very hard to play that position. Last time I checked,

it's a major part of being a good wide receiver, is being able to catch. Like, if you can't run, you're probably not going to be a good running back. If you're not a great tackler, doubt you're going to be a very good linebacker. If you can't catch, not sure I can roll you out as wide receiver. So to have that drop in that spot, in that marquee of a game with us all watching,

I think Valdez Scantling would be a guy that would like a little redo. So that was this week's almost, almost anything player the week. And you can order almost almost anything with Uber Eats, the official on-demand partner of the NFL. Order now. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.

Yep, that's me, CliverTaylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clivert Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.

So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need. to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here. unpack what went down and try to make sense of how we survived it.

Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so. Thank you for finishing that sentence.

Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, back at it with my main man Stucky who is red hot, dominated the National Football League. I'd be lying if on Saturday night I didn't walk into the Draft King Sportsbook casino and wager on the Oregon State Beavers. and that was a tough one, but that's why we gamble.

I also went against your advice and shorted the brownies and the UCLA rookie quarterback, and I was treated to a Kenny Pickett special, so deserve that one. But the Bears, I mean, that was the lock of the day. The Rams, you had to sweat that one out a little bit, but they found a way.

And now we are headed into Thanksgiving Week. Stucky, what's up? What's going on? Yeah, well, the bears, the typical bears fashion, catching nine, they're up 12 with three to go. You think you're safe, right? I just sweat an offensive lineman kicking the ball out of the back of the end zone. If he doesn't do that, Hutchinson jumps on that ball and the lions win by 10 after scoring 17 points in three minutes. But yeah, they were this close.

I'm setting a Christmas card to darn all right, that offensive lineman had accidentally killed. kicked the ball after Fields got sacked. I've never sent a Christmas card any one before, but he's going to be my first. So that was, yeah, that was a sweat. The Rams were a sweat. Everything was a sweat last week, but it turned out sometimes, you know, you end up on the right side of those. Yeah, I had a big bet on Oregon State too. Painful.

They had like a 75% post-game win expectancy. Didn't get three fourth downs, turned it over twice, gave up a safety on a miss nap in the weather. they completely held that passing offensive check in the weather. And both the offenses were ugly in the weather. Yeah. But yeah, you can't turn it over a couple times. You can't miss three, four downs. You can't give up a safety on a muffed punt snap.

So, yeah, they kind of shot themselves in the foot. So that was painful and a two-point loss and couldn't get a drive late. But it was a good Sunday, but we're on to week 12. Yeah, when I sat down and ordered around, I looked up and it was pouring rain. I was like, God, this got to look pretty good for Oregon State, right? Playing a passing offense, you run the ball, physical defense. I do think, not to look too far ahead, but, you know, Oregon's a huge favorite against Oregon State in the Civil War. Washington's a big favorite against Washington State in the Apple Cup.

Now, things get weird in these, you know, rivalry games. Auburn, Alabama have been huge favorites and Auburn's played them close. But assuming they both win, do you look at Washington? Washington because their defense and their team had just been a little soft. They showed a little more grittiness in that game. I mean, that's a gritty, tough environment. Do you give them, because I feel like everyone's like, oh, fuck, they got no chance to beat Oregon in Vegas in two weeks.

I have a hard time just writing them off because they do. I mean, it feels like they haven't lost a game in like two years. Yeah, I mean, like, I think in a way the weather helped them too. I mean, the only thing that, the only thing anyone did on either offense all day was panic's hitting Adunzee. It was amazing just throwing it up to him. He was one of 11 turned to anybody else. But Washington was just able to load the box. So they brought everyone down and they just said, you're not going to be able to throw in this weather.

And Oregon State really didn't. And then Washington's corners played, Muhammad played really, really well, the Oklahoma State transfer. So, yeah, I gave a little boost. They definitely played better than I expected. And, you know, when you have Pennix not passing offense, it's the thing is he's a rhythm. He's a very rhythmic passer. And when he's on, he gets going.

But then he can go off the rails. I think he had like 11 straight in completions against Oregon State, who's not a great past defense. So, yeah, if he gets on and gets hot, they can certainly stick with Oregon. I think we'll see if both games go according to plan, you'll probably both. I mean, I assume both will win this weekend.

They'll probably wonder both will be close, really close somehow, as you alluded to. But I would guess that Oregon will probably end up being like a six, seven point favorite, depending on how games go this weekend. But you can't write off that offense for sure. And I was impressed by the day. Okay, before we get to the NFL, obviously the big game on Saturday. is Michigan, Ohio State. And listen, I've watched J.J. McCarthy the last couple of weeks.

Now, I understand the Penn State game. Why even mess around? I thought in the Maryland game, he had some, like, Jimmy Garoppolo moments for some of those Niners teams, where you're like, do not screw this up. Which, listen, I'm not some Rivals.com guru, but everyone hyped this guy up, Harbaugh went all in with them,

and then just listening, because I'm not just going to watch Michigan fucking beat Rucker 60 to nothing. and I don't even know what those passes mean, but you watch them as these games got a little tighter, let's face it, they don't have the signs anymore, and he's just,

I don't want to say he's looked pedestrian, like he's better than the Penn State guy, but he is no longer this, he's getting drafted really high. I mean, I don't see it in the guy, so listen, I would have loved Michigan and maybe I was just kind of riding the hype. How do you not like Ohio State plus three and a half

with everything going on with Michigan, given their quarterback is just, got to be a major question mark right now. Yeah, it's a really fascinating game because I also don't trust, you're right, I don't trust McCarthy. And I don't, the other thing going on here is that without Harbaugh, they've gone into like this super Harbaugh mode where they just want to run the ball like a trillion times. But part of that also is their tackle situation is a mess.

Like they can't block anybody on the outside. It was actually a smart decision against Penn State because they try to drop McCarthy back. and Penn State is one of the best edge rushes in the country. And the first three drives, he was just getting hit right away. They have, you know, they lost, we talked about this other week. They left tackle to the Dolphins, his replacement from Arizona State. It's not been good. He's hurt.

He got backups in there now. So their tackle situation is a great. Ohio State, obviously, has a great edge rush. But, you know, Ohio State's offensive line has had some issues, too, and I don't trust their quarterback. I mean, Kyle McCord, just if you watch them, take. away when he just looks at Marvin Harrison is one of the best receivers in college we've seen in a very long time. You know, he'll just look at him and third down, he is just, I'm going to throw at you.

And they really haven't played anybody. So you've got to get away with that. So, yeah, this is going to come down to, you know, who is, number one, can Michigan just take away, Harrison? You have to do that. You have to have a safety over time. You can't let him just beat you alone. will McCourt end up making a mistake just trying to stare him down, which could happen. But I just don't think that either passing offense is going to have much success with some of the offensive line issues, from what I've seen from McCarthy, what I've seen from McCord.

It's going to come down to this is going to feel like an old school big 10 game. Who can just get the three-yard push up front consistently and then finish a few drives off with touchdowns? I think this profiles is an under. These games have been higher scoring of late. I just think Michigan will be super conservative again. I think Ohio State wants to rely on its defense. They don't really trust McCord. So, yeah, but it's that difficult game in the handicap because we see neither team has played a really hard schedule.

So you have all these, like, data points that are meaningless against just cupcake states. And then you have the whole sign stealing. And then you have everything going on with Michigan. And Harbaal not going to be on. So it's definitely probably the most uncertainty I can ever remember heading into the game in a very long time. But it'll definitely be an intriguing watch, and I'm sure it'll break some ratings records even without Harbaugh on the sidelines. Okay, the Steelers had nine lives. They had been outgained in all nine games.

Well, they didn't have a 10th life because they lost. And I remember when Borough got hurt, was that last Monday night? Whenever Burrow got hurt. Thursday. Thursday night. Thursday night. Okay, I got my prime time games were thrown off. Oh, yeah, it was just not that long ago.

That I looked at their schedule and it's like, the Steelers haven't even played them yet. So I was like, the Steelers get multiple games. And listen, this is not college football where a guy gets injured. The next five star comes up. In the NFL, once you have a 40, $45, $50 million quarterback, you tend to have a random backup quarterback. Now, I watch, and I'm from the Sacramento area.

I've been following this guy's career. He played at Folsom High School. which is like a power. Remember De LaSalle back in the day and never lost in the Bay Area. They kind of became the new De LaSalle and he went on to play for Chris Peterson and listen, he was successful

because the program was, but not in a million years did I ever watch him and think NFL quarterback? And he's been out of college a little while. So this guy, Jake Browning, maybe I'm biased. I just don't take him that seriously

as a player, but I'll be honest, you roll out Kenny Pickett. It's just your games are going to be tight. and weird shit can happen. Like, you're just not going to score many points. So I'd have a hard time placing a wager on Jake Browning. I know where you're going to go on this.

But if you lose to Jake Browning, I think today, obviously, firing Matt Canada, all the stats are out. First time they fired a coach in-season assistant coach, any coach, you know, since the early 40s. You have to wonder, like, could they, you know, Tom has been there a long time. They haven't won a playoff game in forever. This quarterback thing's not really working out.

I don't, you know, it's just, you would start asking some questions. Like, would there be a possibility? Because you can't lose to Jake Browning. It's one thing to lose to the Browns. Their defense is fucking unreal. Miles Garrett is unstoppable. But Jake Browning and this Bengal team, I think, would be a little different story. Yeah, it's interesting because the Steelers, Tom ones, he's never had a losing record.

So you never can even, you don't have Ben Rathesberger anymore, but you're, never going to get like a two-win season where you can get. But he's not going to have a losing, he's going to end up, you know, he's already six and four, so what's going to end up around nine and eight? And if you look at the AFC playoff picture, like the team that they had to worry about the most was the Bengals. I mean, who else is, they have a really easy path. They even play the Patriots in a couple weeks. Who knows who's going to be quarterbacks for them? They played the Bengals twice, but I played the Bengals plus one here. I agree. I don't think Browning is any good, but you see it all the time with these backup quarterbacks in their first game.

That's it. Their first game, they've been really successful. I think 67% against the spread over the past five years. Their first game, there's two things that happen. One, you sort of see this in the NBA, too, like star player is out. Their first game, half an injury, everyone else steps up. Right? So you have an extended break here after playing on Thursday nights.

You have a little extra time to prepare and rest. Chase should be 100% healthy. But everyone else steps up. It's like, okay, we have the back. back up. They're five and five. They know that this is it. Like if they want to make a playoff run at home, they need to win this game. But they'll have a game plan of probably a pretty easy game plan for Browning, a lot of one rethrows, and there's not a lot of film on what they want to do with him. And, you know, once that's out and it's like, all right, this is

the easy stuff that they want to do with them, the Bengals are done. But I think for one game, Browning can do enough. And I'm not asking them to do much. because you've got to score like 13 points here and you'll win against this Steelers' offense. That is, I mean, it's abysmal. I also don't know how much you could, they just fired Matt Canada. I don't know how much you can change in four days, right? Like, what do you change? The whole playbook?

So they don't throw it over the middle of the field. If you look at the passing chart of Kenny Pickett every week, you could drive a super yacht through his passing chart. He just throws it at the sidelines. That is it. So it is insane. So the offense is completely broken. I think the Bengals defense will step up here. I think everyone else in the offense,

I'm sure Chase will have like a couple big catches will step up. And remember, this Steelers defense, they will Levis look good against them. Jordan Love went up and down the field. The secondary has some issues. So I think Browning can make some throws. And I think the Bengals in like, this is their hype spot, right? with all right first game without borough everyone else's got to step up i think they win this game

in ugly fashion steelers have been out gained in 10 straight games the only team of the winning record that's been done that they're due for even some more negative regression and but once that happens yeah bengals fangles are done i probably won't be betting them much the rest of the year i saw a headline this morning that car still hasn't cleared the concussion protocol from getting just throttled a couple weeks ago. So obviously he's a major question mark as we record this on Tuesday. I mean, James, who's just, you know, Derek doesn't do much anymore, kind of dinks and dunks, but at least you know what you're getting. I mean, at any moment, James can just do something pretty outrageously stupid, though he's enjoyable to watch. The Falcons renamed Ritter back as their starting quarterback.

This is just, listen, watching the Bucks against the Niners, if Baker just wouldn't have that stretch after they went three and one of playing really shitty. They actually have a lot of talent. Their talent's a little older, but this division's wide open. I guess maybe just because I picked them to start the season, I would still pick the Saints, but fuck Dennis Allen, Derrick Carr. But I don't take Arthur Smith that seriously. Now maybe it's just his quarterback situation, but all the skill guys, obviously

Tampa's and Chambles, maybe just a 7 and 10 team ends up winning this division. That's what it looks like. This division, there should be some clause in the NFL where you can't do this. But if you don't have a team that finishes with a certain record, you lose your playoff spot. No, I completely agree that you are not, you cannot, if you win your division with a record under 500, and there are obviously other teams above you, one through seven now, you should not be a playoff team. Who would argue that, like, that's not fair? And you get to host a playoff game, too.

What's the Ron Rivera thing? He's done it twice. Yeah. Yeah. I bet the Falcons here plus one. We don't, there is still some quarterback uncertainty. If you have car, you know what you're going to get. Yeah.

It's going to be Dick and Duncan, which is not how you want to attack this Falcons defense, which should get their slot cornerback, should get on Yamada back. There also, there's a, I'll say a random name. We were just talking about Chad Hall. I want to hear a random name here. that could be important. Parker Hessey is a tight end who I think is going to return. He's like their sixth offensive lineman.

He's going to return from injury for the first time. That's when their running game really gets going. They abuse him a lot as a run blocker, a really brand of name to throw out there. But the Falcons are a lot healthier than the Saints, who I don't think Michael Thomas is going to play. We don't know who the quarterback is. Marshawn Latimore is probably out.

You know, they have a couple other injuries, and Latimore is big. Just everything that they want to do. on defense, he can take away your number one. So, you know, if you look at the saint, I just haven't been impressive what the Saints team has done. No, they haven't been impressive at all. They've been terrible.

They beat the Bears, Tyson Bages. They had six, they had five turnovers. They had to hold on to win that game. They beat another backup when they played the Colts. They beat the Patriots. I mean, we don't know what that looks like now. They beat the Panthers by three. And they beat the Titans by one.

when the Titans had a defensive touchdown callback. I mean, all those teams are one or two win teams. Falcons have lost a lot of close games, played a little tougher schedule. You know, I'll take the one at home. If it's Winston, I love Faden Winston as a favorite, even if it's a short favorite on the road in division game. He can give away the game.

I like betting him as an underdog. If it's car, there's just no juice with this offense to attack the Falcon's secondary. And the Falcons Rundee's been really good. So, yeah, I'd make the Falcons here like a one and a half point favorite, so I took the one. Maybe just the philosophy is if Atlanta, New Orleans, or Tampa, any matchup, just hammer the underdog in those games? Because what the hell is the difference in the three of them? Pretty much. You know, just an enormous game, definitely on paper.

The Eagles beat the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. I thought Jalen looked like shit. And then all of a sudden he runs in the touchdown. They get the Kelsey Fumble. They hit the Swift screen. he throws a bomb, they score, they take the lead, and obviously they win with 700 drops from the Chiefs. But they clearly don't look.

Now, you get, like, this is not college football, you get credit for winning, right? There's no style points. But last year, they looked different, right? They just looked much more complete than they have looked this year. And even Jaylen, to me, as a pocket passer, just has, and I understand yesterday it was rainy, it was harder, but it's just not looked as good.

Like, I mean, last year he was an MVP. guy and this year you watch him he's not an MVP caliber player uh the bills fire their offensive coordinator get a little life now granted they were playing the fucking jets and it was kind of a double amy one they're just way better than the jets and they had easy motivation because the jets somehow beat them on monday night football to open up the season and there were some desperation this is an interesting game man i i i feel he's weird i mean it's hard to discount them but they've been winning these tight games so you get you get three and a half with josh allen who i mean you're more in this than me. I've seen a lot of people say everyone's shitting on Josh Allen. And according to

basically every metric, he's easily been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year. Yeah, he's been the best. So they've been a little unlucky. You know, if you go by luck rankings, we do these luck rankings, which look at, you know, things that are like fluky, like turnovers, what happens in the red zone, fumbles. The Eagles have been the luckiest team in the NFL. They have two and a half, 2.6 more wins than they should. And the bills have been the unluckiest. They have two fewer wins than they should. So really, this is like an eight and three bills team taking on a seven and four or eight and three Eagles team.

And you wouldn't be getting the hook if that was the case. The Eagles have been extremely lucky. You know, look, they beat the commanders in overtime because paddle boat Ron doesn't go for two at home. They beat the commanders again, you know, at back and front. fourth game. They got out gained in that game by 150 yards. They, you know, you go back to this Cowboys game. They got dominated in that game. I mean, they were out gained by more than 220 yards in that game. Dallas went up and down the field. It just couldn't do it. It just kept turning it over in the red zone, stepping out of bounds, turning it over at the one. Just very fluky stuff.

Same thing with the chiefs. They got out. They had 230 yards against Kansas City. 230 total yards. That was it. That was less than the steel. yours had more yards than that. You know, you had a Kelsey fumble in the red zone. You had seven drops. You had Mahomes throwing it up to them. You had another, you know, you have another Hertz fumble where it bounced right up to him.

Go back to that Dallas game. Philly had three fumbles in that game. Every single one bounced right back to them. They've been getting extremely lucky. This is a team that just has a, I mean, go back to all their wins. It's not been an impressive team this year. Something is just a little off. They beat the Patriots by five.

They beat the Vikings by three at home. They get that touchback at the end of the first half. So they've just gotten every single break in all these games. Credit to them for finding a way to win, but the defense has major holes. They don't have a slot. Their linebackers are a mess. They can't defend the pass. They can't depend on the middle of the field.

The bills are an offense that once it gets really going, then they are a juggernaut for like three and four weeks. Sometimes it'll just be a little off. The timing is in there. but I know it was the Jets. Who cares what the defense did? But that Jets defense had shut down every single top quarterback they faced this year. And Alan ripped them apart. So I think that's a good sign for this offense this week against a vulnerable Philly defense

that has just benefited from a lot of fluky stuff this year. And the other side of the ball, even the Eagles offense is still just a little bit off. Hurts is a little bit off. He's not fully healthy. You can tell when he runs, that's when the Eagles are the most. dangerous when he can run it with reckless abandon and doesn't have to worry about his knee. This is also the Bill's season. Bill's got need to win this game.

And the Eagles are coming off a short week after, you know, getting revenge over the team that they lost to in the Super Bowl. So just from a situation, and they have the Cowboys and 49ers on deck. So they're sitting pretty while you have a desperate Bill's team who's been unlucky coming in. Give me the three and a half all day. This is my favorite bet of the weekend. When the Ravens beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl, didn't that year they fired their offensive coordinator

with like three or four games to go? Was Jim Caldwell? Yeah, they fired... I forget the guy's name, but they put... They made Jim Caldwell the offensive. Cam Cameron. They fired. And then Caldwell took over, right?

Yep. Fired in December. December. Yeah, a little different scenario than the bills, but is it crazy to think the way you just laid out that this team maybe just kind of wakes everybody up that this now their defense obviously a lot of injuries but offensively i mean if they were like you said to get rolling can have we all been too quick to just write them off yeah i think so i mean look

they were they were getting really unlucky too they had some close losses tough schedule and yeah i mean the way that alan is playing with this offense they can outscore anyone on any given day um when that when that offense is clicking and what when Allen is hot, they can run with anybody. So, yeah, I think now their schedule, they play at Philly, then at Kansas City. It's hard. So, yeah, they could get, if they lose both, which they could, they're done. You're not going to the playoffs.

But, yeah, that's why this game is so important to them. Eagles might be a little hungover, a short week after getting their revenge. I think you're going to get the hungry, more desperate team that's been unlucky against a team that's been really lucky. I mean, think about it. The Eagles are 9 and 1. They're plus 60 in net scoring margin. It's one of the worst 9-1 teams in NFL history.

The Ravens are plus 147. The Cowboys are plus 147. The 49ers are over plus 100. I mean, the Eagles have squeaked out these games, and it hasn't been the toughest schedule, and they've gotten so lucky in the red zone with fumble recoveries. Those things don't last. So, yeah, I like the bills here.

It'll be interesting because last night It was a very physical game Like you said short week The 49ers are playing Seattle on the road And then they get that mini buy And that game to them is going to mean a lot Right I mean they ruined their chances last year with Purdy

So they're going to approach that thing Super Bowl level And then you know the Eagles have You said the Cowboys on deck after that Who you know kind of benefit from this little They kind of do that little mini Thanksgiving thing right They usually play on Thanksgiving And then they play the following Thursday

so I'm sure they'll be coming off a little mini-buy. If memory serves me correct, that's what they usually do. So this is a very, very fascinating stretch of football for all the top, right, five, six teams. The Eagles, the Niners, the Chiefs, the Bills. And now the Bengals are done. So the Ravens who are battling the injury bug again, it's going to be interesting how this shapes out. I mean, you'd be hard-pressed to just go, this team is winning the Super Bowl. and then all of a sudden the lions just keep rattling off wins.

You know, no one's really talking about them. But I don't view them as good enough, but we've been talking about them for a while. They're going to win this week. I'd be stunned if they don't. And then you're going to look up and all of a sudden they're going to be 14 and 3. Yep.

We talked about that many times. Gough, I've seen it a trillion times. This guy cannot play in conditions. So that one seed for Detroit is more important than anybody else than any other team. But yeah, the one-seat race is going to be super fascinating. Obviously, a huge win for the Eagles. It was massive.

It was massive. Especially with the schedule they have coming up. Also for the division as well. But, yeah, the AFC, I mean, the AFC with the Ravens now, but by, the season ended today, but they have three losses. Chiefs, Jags, Dauphins, Browns have three losses. Like, the one-seat race in the IFC. is going to go right down on the wire.

And now, today's NFL with this expanded plow, one team gets the one seed. That is so big. So, yeah, both one seed races. Would you say Cleveland, would Cleveland be a sleeper one seed or is their offense? Would you be hard pressed to see that? Because to me, starting the rookie quarterback,

I don't care how good your defense is. That feels hard in this modern day football. Yeah, they'll probably get to like, so they're seven and three. if seven games left they'll probably win three or four of them because they're just going to be in these games

where they're low scoring and it's just going to come down to like a play or two. So they're not going to it's going to be very difficult for them to go like six and one which they'll probably need to do in order to get to the one seed. So yeah I just don't think

they have the consistent enough quarterback but okay Stucky Have a good Thanksgiving. Keep the good times rolling, nailing these picks, and we will speak next week. Yeah, happy Thanksgiving, everyone, to stay, holiday. Enjoy the sweats all weekend. It's a beautiful time of the year. And we'll see you guys next weekend.

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