The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - College Football Playoff Predictions

Episode Date: December 3, 2023

John reacts to the College Football Championship Saturday game and gives his take on who he thinks should be in the CFB Playoffs after watching Florida State and Alabama both win. Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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What is going on, everybody, John Middilcock, Three-in-out podcast? Here's the deal. Just watched the Florida State game, and I said, you know what? I got some takes on that program and the playoff situation, the Alabama-Georgia game, and the Washington Oregon game.

Have some thoughts. And I said, you know what? Let's fire up the podcast. Let's record. Let's put something out there in the ethos for the people to listen to. So that's what we did. We reacted, a little instant reaction, and that's what this is. So let's dive into it.

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Let's start with Florida State I just watched that game as I'm sure many of you did as well, or at least if you weren't super locked then it was a bad game. I didn't watch a snap of Michigan. You know why? I knew Michigan was going to win, and it was just an irrelevant game. And I saw a lot of people on social media like, why aren't we? We saw

last week against Ohio State. Michigan, this game didn't matter at all. I was going to put zero effort, any judgment into caring about that game, one iota. It didn't matter. Clearly they covered. They're in the playoff. They're going to be the number one seat. but when you watch Florida State, and Colin and I talked about this last week, back when I was young, I think I was in high school, might have been in junior high,

the Cincinnati Bearcats were having an incredible season. Bob Huggins was their coach. Now, the NCAA tournament is different than a 14 college football playoff, but it was similar logic. Kenyon Martin was viewed as the best player in the country. He was going to be the number one overall pick, and he came down around the foul line and shattered his last. lake and was out.

And they were no longer a number one seat, even though I'm pretty sure at the time when he got injured, they had not lost a game. And I'm sorry, in football, if you lose a starting quarterback, it changes the way we view you. Deshawn Watson wasn't even that good this year. But the moment he goes down and then DTR goes down and they start Joe fucking Flacco, we don't take the Browns as seriously anymore, right? This is the basic, you know, premise of football is how good your quarterback.

I don't care how good everything else is around you. And listen, I am not a Florida state hater. Derek Ray, their general manager, I have known since I worked at Fresno State. He was a student assistant. After they beat LSU two days later, we talked on the phone for like 30 minutes. I have followed that program since he has been there now the last couple years very closely. I was rooting for them. If Jordan Travis' ankle doesn't get shattered,

I don't care how weird the last couple games had gotten. If he was playing, they're in. But when he ruins his ankle and is on crutches in a wrap on the sideline, and then the backup quarterback that, let's face it, before Florida knocked them out, didn't look any good. And you go to a third string quarterback, you're not the same team. and I think the most overused word in just America in general, but we use a lot in sports, is deserved.

Like, deserved? Like, yeah, your resume when Jordan Travis was there was awesome. I give you a ton of credit for playing LSU, and you beat their ass. And listen, you got by Clemson. I watched a lot of that game in overtime. Weird game. But you won the game.

You were taking care of business. But the moment you're starting quarterback goes down, And the reality is Jordan Travis is like a friend's draftable player. But he was a really good college player, and your team with him was really good. You're good on defense. Coleman, the wide receiver's good. Your team's very talented. But I'm sorry, when we're rolling out quarterbacks who wouldn't start at the majority of Power 5 teams,

I no longer take you seriously. And if you just watch the game the night, and listen, we can use the metric of, well, what if Vegas was involved? Would Vegas put Florida State in? Would they be one of the four best teams? Of course not. So we can argue this till we're blue in the face. I'm not a Florida state hater.

I'm a Florida state fan. Not only do I root for the program, I think their coach, Mike Norvelle, is really good. But the moment their quarterback shattered his ankle, which was awful to watch because of everything this program had put themselves in position. Remember, they're just a couple years removed. For when Dion stole Travis Hunter to Jackson State,

everyone was screaming for Mike Norvelle to get fired. like it's pretty clear Mike Norvell knows what the fuck he's doing Dion I don't know I mean we saw how this year went right so like I'm not some hater of this program but based on

this team going to the college football playoff no I'm sorry like I would put Alabama in over them because it's pretty clear that last spot Michigan is in Washington is in to me Texas has to be in over Alabama why

They played. Like the whole point of this entire thing is like, when I play you, who wins, who loses? Strength of schedule, blah, blah, blah, blah. They played. We saw it. They played them in Alabama and Texas won handily. And listen, I'm not the biggest Sarkesian fan, but his team's really good. They are loaded with NFL players at every position, and they deserve to go.

But Bama, if you watch today meets Georgia just healthy, and Florida State with their third string quarterback, it's not even a debate. But their resume. Their resume was based on a starting quarterback who's now in crutches on the sideline. So, yeah, their resume, if that quarterback 100%, Bama would be out.

If Jordan Travis was their quarterback and the same score had held the night, and it had looked the exact same, Florida State's in. But the moment he got injured, they're out. So to me, it's Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama. And honestly, that's what I think is going to happen. Here's another reality. This is a business. This is not Little League. So Ohio State and Michigan and the SEC have carried

this sport financially. The reason all these people are making all this money is because of that conference in the South and Ohio State and Michigan doing enormous television ratings over the last decade and being very, very relevant. So, yeah, do I give the SEC the benefit of the doubt? Hell yes, I do. Now, would I put Bama and Georgia in? No. And as I said on the podcast, I think on Thursday, my bold take of the week, the reason I took Bama, and I didn't have great faith in it, but I just kind of played

the law of averages. The longest winning streak of my lifetime in college football is 34 games, and that's USC. Georgia made it to 29 tonight. It's hard to win that many straight games. It's also hard, like, you're not winning three straight national championships. Their team this year, and I'm no, like, recruiting expert, but their team clearly wasn't as good. The quarterback clearly wasn't as good as Stetson Bennett had been the last couple years.

So Alabama, who Nick Saban is now 11-1 in SEC championship games. He's now 5-1 against Kirby Smart. Now, the one loss did happen in the national championship, but I thought Nick Saban, tonight, this season, I got cocktails earlier this year with a buddy of mine in the NFL. He hit Arizona and then hit Arizona State, and I met him at night for some drinks. And we spent three or four hours just talking football.

And he knows the SEC really well. And he knows Alabama really well. And he said, honestly, John, I think Alabama's in major trouble this year. They're nowhere near as talented as they've been, and the quarterback is very, very shaky. and he's not wrong. The talent on this team, relative to the Sabin Dynasty, is not the same. He has a down year.

And the quarterback, now he's played a lot better of late, but is easily the worst quarterback, especially from an NFL prospect standpoint, that he's had over the last five or six years, right? Jalen Hertz, Tuatongaviloa, Mack Jones, Bryce Young. Those guys are better NFL prospects than Millro, but I will give Milrow this. He has clearly improved dramatically.

And his dual threat to not only run, but to make plays scrambling around, is really impressive. And I thought down the stretch of that game, he was fucking awesome. Him and 17 kind of stole the soul of Georgia. But Nick Sabin had that team ready to go, a lot like Washington against Oregon.

When you have a coach, Now, Sabin's, you could argue, the greatest college football coach of all time. Many would. I mean, his resume speaks for itself. Clearly, you know, one of the great coaches we've ever seen. Kaelin Dubour is easily atop six, seven coaching college football right now. When you have a great coach and you have a ton of NFL players. And listen, Alabama, relative to some of their teams, is not as talented.

They still have a ton of NFL players. And I was watching some of T-Bob and Aaron Murray on the, snaps. This technically is the most talented college football team of all time based on recruiting rankings for Alabama. Now, I'd push back like Amari Cooper. They've had a lot of elite players on the Alabama roster who won't quote unquote all-time great recruits. But clearly Alabama's got talent. When you make them a huge underdog, especially against a rival, like you got to be careful when you have a great coach. And you watch Sabin today put on a click. Listen, Kirby's awesome. Kirby is the younger version of Nick Saban.

Kirby learned everything he knows from Nick Saban. They're going to be fine. They ran out of juice. You can't lose that many players over a course of 24 months to the National Football League. I don't care how great you recruit, and Georgia does. I don't care how much money you're paying these players. Georgia pays a lot and not take a step back.

And you watch their quarterback, I don't want to say he shit the bed, but he looked a little shaky. Now you can say, well, their best wide receiver, third or fourth rounder was limping around. Brock Bowers coming back off injury, not the same. Alabama showed up to kick ass and take names. And really, beside the first drive they had, which did look shaky, and I had some money on Alabama, they were fucking awesome.

And Nick Saban, 11 and 1 in the SEC championship. 11 and 1 in the SEC championship game? That is insane. I saw it since the Atlanta Falcons moved into the Mercedes. Ben's Dome, it might have been 17 or 18. He hasn't lost. He's 7 and 0. Maybe that was 15.

I forget the exact year. He's never lost. You know, they played in a different, you know, stadium before they got the new one. He's never lost in this new stadium. 7 and 0. So you put Nick Sabin, turn on the bright lights, put him against Kirby. Whether he's an underdog, whether he's a favorite, it doesn't matter. He's going to win.

I mean, five out of six times. And honestly, you put him in that game. He's going to win 11 out of 12. So incredible performance by Sabin. Tommy Reese, what a great move. Remember, when Marcus Freeman took over Notre Dame, he kept Tommy Reese. And Tommy Reese had a chance to go to LSU with Brian Kelly a year ago,

and he stayed. And then this offseason, he jumped ship to Nick Saban. A lot of people like, God, why are you doing that? And early on, even I thought, like, God, Jalen Milro, are you sure you want to do this? And I'd say it aged pretty well. Now they're 12 and 1. And listen, I don't know how the command.

keeps them out over Florida State. It'd just be the wrong decision. And then, last but not least, on Friday night, I've been following Kalin-Dabor's career now for six, seven years. He was an offensive coordinator at Fresno State. He then became the head coach at Fresno State. Obviously, I worked there, so I just follow the program closely. And then these last couple years at Washington,

if you Google Kalin-Dubour, you'll find that his overall record, Now, he started at, you know, like a Division II school, Sykewaw Falls in South Dakota, and his career record there was 67 and 3. And his career record overall there at Fresno State and now at Washington is 102 and 11. That's his career record as a head coach. He's like 50 years old.

102 and 11. His offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, who actually turned down Nick Sabre, before they hired Tommy Reese. Nick Saban tried to hire him. Washington now pays him $2 million, which is the most money, PAC 12 is officially dead now, football-wise.

It's the most money at coordinators ever made in the conference. Paid him $2 million this year. That guy has been with Kalin since he's been coaching the small school in South Dakota. So they have been together for a long time. And I think a year or two ago, I got a DM from a guy that played for him at Sykewaw Falls,

and said that it's going to sound crazy, but I'm telling you, when we were in college playing, and they were winning NIAI championships, he's like, I used to look at my teammates and we used to talk about it,

like, this guy's too good for us. It's crazy that he's our head coach. This is, this doesn't add up. Like, this is, it'd be like Nick Saban coaching division two. Like, what are we doing? How's this possible? He's like, I'm telling you,

the guy is a rocket ship. and he's gone to Washington, and now three straight times he's played Oregon. He played him last year in the regular season. He played him this year in the regular season, and he played him again in the Pac-12 championship. He's 3-0. And college football comes down to two things.

At the highest level, you've got to have the players. And Washington and Oregon have them. Washington has an NFL quarterback, multiple NFL offensive linemen. One guy that's going to get drafted in the top 20. They have multiple wide receivers. One guy is going to be a top 20 pick, another guy is going to be a top 50 pick.

So they got a defensive end that's a top, you know, 30 pick. They have NFL players. This is not some like little engine that could. I wouldn't say they're Alabama or Georgia, but they are a legit top, you know, 7-8 roster in college football with NFL talent. And then it comes down to coaching, like Sabin v. Kirby, right? And when you put DuBore and Grub as offensive coordinator up against Lannning and Tosh Lu Poe, and listen, I've been following Tosh Lu Poe.

career since he was the recruiting coordinator for Jeff Tedford at Cal 15 years ago. Tosh has worked for Sabin. Tosh has been around. Tosh is legit. He's a legit recruiter. Now, as a schematic guy, Kim and Lannin, I'm sorry, are at a disadvantage against Dubour and Grub. I will take Dubour and Grub against those two guys every day of the week. I'm not trying to diminish Oregon. Oregon is going nowhere. Those two guys can recruit their ass off. Those two guys can coach. But at the highest level, when the margins are the slimmest, I'll take those two guys in Washington. And when you look at combinations around the country, that's as good as you get. When you talk about

head coach, who's an offensive guy, and offensive coordinator, that's a dynamic tandem. And then he factor in Michael Pennix, who is probably going to win the Heisman, who is a polarizing draft prospect because he's had a million injuries, he's not a mobile guy. And listen, we got time. We got time. to get into him. But in terms of a college player, he's fucking unreal.

He dominates. I don't remember a college quarterback throwing a better deep ball than Michael Pennix Jr. And those two guys showed up. I think the best thing you can have as an offensive coach, like the best way I can describe,

like if you're a great offensive coach, is to have the combination of intellectual capacity as a schematic guy drawing guys open, dialing up plays, but being a tough guy. And I think Du Boer has that. I think most Andy Reid has that. Kyle Shanahan has that.

Jim Harbaugh has that. Like, Sean McVeigh has that. Like, my ethos is, I'm intellectual. We're going to figure out ways to scheme you. But I'm a tough guy at heart. That's what Lincoln Riley kind of lacks. He's not really, it's Chip Kelly. They're not really tough guys.

And I'm not acting like I'm Connor McGregor. I'm just saying the way I've been around, Pat Hill, tough guy, Andy Retire. I just know what it looks. I was around the 49ers when Jim Harbaugh was the coach. I just know what the vibe is. The ethos of a team. Watch the way they practice. Watch the way they play. And Washington has that in spades. Oregon does too. I'm not trying to act like Oregon sucks. But Washington had a level like, listen, here's the reality with Kalin Dubour. Washington is going to have the money, even though when they move to the Big Ten, they don't technically get the full share. They have to kind of earn it right over time because they were like a late edition there's a lot of different you know BS around it but the reality is Michigan if Harbaugh were to leave and Ryan day if he were to get fired by Ohio State in the next you know after next year or whatever they would be all over that guy and we see how much they're willing to pay so if you're Washington like I'm sorry you give this guy like a 90 million dollar contract and eventually you're going to lose Ryan grub

because he's a, you know, if a guy wants to be head coach and he's going to get a Power 5 job, but right now you've got something pretty special, and that is a dynamic tandem. And now there's been three quarterbacks who have represented the Pac-12 in the playoffs. Marriota was the first. Jake Browning, which I'd say aged pretty well,

because he's still in the NFL, and Michael Pennix Jr. So, listen, I got nostalgic watching, you know, the end of the Pac-12, even though, like, these teams aren't going anywhere, are still going to be able to watch them. They're still playing each other. Oregon and Washington will still be a rivalry.

USC and UCLA will still be a rivalry. I've just grown up on this conference. It sucks, but it's the reality of it. I'm glad that on the year where it all ends, they get a legit representation. They get an elite coach leading them in. Like Washington now, they've two of the three teams

that represent the Pac-12 over the course of this 14 playoff have been Washington teams. One was Chris Peterson, who's easily one of the best coaches of the last 20 years in college football. And now Kaelin Dubour, who I think is easily becoming a top five coach

and just operating a top five program. And it's fun watching Washington. That was really impressive. Like ultimately Saban beating Kirby, isn't that weird? It's been happening for a while. We shouldn't be that shocked. It's not that crazy.

Like, they didn't run up Matt Stafford. I'm sorry, this Carson Beck hype train needs to slow down. And they just ran out of gas. Like, it happens. You won 29 straight games. You're bound to lose. that Washington game I was guilty of this

loved Oregon loved Oregon in that spot who didn't and Washington kind of kicked their ass Oregon kind of made it a game definitely in the second half but Washington was in control from that from the beginning

and if it wasn't some free touchdown late they win kind of easy incredible kind of lasting drive by Pennix the wide receivers the running back runs his ass off number seven and just an awesome performance and college football season has been really fun. I just hope the committee gets it right.

Like I said, I would go Michigan, I would go Washington, I would go Texas, and I would go Alabama. And that's no shade at Florida State. Just when you lose your starting quarterback, I'm sorry you're no longer the same team. So incredible 24 hours of college football, and let's let the chaos begin. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy,

Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not.

not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away,

such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever, you get your podcast. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human.