The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Hurts Transformation, Trade Deadline Takes, Week 9 3 for the $$$

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

John reacts to the Eagles rolling to 8-0 with a workmanlike TNF road win over the Texans, how Jalen Hurts continues to prove his doubters wrong, and which college QB’s could end up with the Texans. He also gives his take on trade deadline moves from the Bears, Vikings and Dolphins and other active teams. He also runs 3 Week 9 NFL games by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement on this week’s picks!  Subscribe NOW and follow Middlekauff and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content. It's always FanDuel for the best wagering action! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volume.

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to get started. Now, sign up with promo code Colin so they know we sent you. What is going on, everybody, John Middilcock, three and out podcast. How are we doing? Philadelphia Eagles win. Philadelphia Phillies lose.

There's a football podcast. We'll dive into the Eagles. Jalen Hertz, Boland, Texans, now fighting for the number one overall pick. A lot of other football stuff. Trade deadline. Bradley Chubb, the Rams run out of ammo. Dan Snyder really going to sell the team?

I don't know. I'll be honest, I'm a little leery. We will see on that one. RIP Ray Guy, of course, Stucky. We do our picks for the weekend, as well as Middilkoff mailbag. We'll come out on Sunday at John Middlecoff. Is the Instagram at John Middlecoff?

Is the Instagram fire in those DMs? Get your question answered here. Tuesday's pod as well as Sunday's pod. And if you listen through Collins feed, I greatly appreciate it. Make sure you subscribe to the Three and Out podcast. And yeah. But before we dive into the game,

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Loudest, most portable, longest battery life Bluetooth speaker on the market. Again, turtlebox audio.com, enter the promo code J-O-H-N, John, for $20 off, your first order and free shipping. Let's dive into some football. I have a pretty simple philosophy on Thursday night football. Is past about week two or week three, I don't judge the road team like I would, college football team. Because as the season goes, you can get some weird matchups. And in college football,

for example, when Alabama, when Georgia, when Ohio State, when Michigan, when USC, when these teams play bad teams late in the season, right? They're 8 and 1. They're playing a 2-win team. We don't just expect them to win. We expect them to dominate. And usually the point spread is 20 to 30 points,

right? In the NFL, that's not the case. I mean, last week was the biggest point spread in Aaron Rogers' career at 11.5. And he covered on the road against the bills. Thursday night football, I throw it all out the window when it comes to judgment. Now, from a gambling standpoint, you know, I didn't touch tonight, but looking at it, it's like, yeah, the Texans are home, 14 points, like, makes sense. But the Eagles, you don't get style points Thursday night football in early November. even if you're 7 and 0 playing

we'll get into the Texans here in a second one of the worst teams in the league you just have to win and get out and that's what the Eagles did now they ended up winning by 12 points 29 to 17 but it was tight I'll be honest the first half

was watching a little more of the World Series would peak up then all of a sudden it's 14 to 14 I'm like no the Eagles aren't going to lose this Davis Mills and then the second half they pick them off AJ Brown scores It's like, yeah, the Eagles aren't going to lose. Of course they're not going to lose.

And I am not going to nitpick the performance. They just beat the shit out of the Steelers about four days ago. You go on the road, multiple time zones. You win the game. You get out of there. You're 8.0. Peace. See ya. Here's my main takeaway from Philly.

And it hit me tonight. I don't remember a quarterback. One, the guy that came into the draft, beside like Howie Roseman, Jeffrey Lurie and Doug Peterson. did that, and like Jalen's family, did that many people believe in Jalen as an NFL quarterback? Because I know people around Alabama. I know people around Oklahoma.

Like honestly, I don't know people around every major Power 5 program. Those are two programs. I got people that I'm pretty close with. No one swore by him. In terms of being like a future NFL starter. Every college director, every GM that I know beside Howie,

was not a fan of Jalen. And then Jalen's rookie year, when he came in, we all thought it was kind of crazy. And then he becomes the full-time starter the following year. Like, God, the Eagles are going to suck. Somehow they make the playoffs. Now, granted, they take seven teams, but still made the playoffs. He showed he was a lot better than we all thought. But it was like, come on, you know, you've got a really good team.

You're going to build your future around Jalen Hertz. I said that all off-season. And I even picked them to win the division. But I was like, I don't ever remember a guy going from so questioned, to like, I'm not saying he's like a star, but he's a high-end starting quarterback right now. If you just watch Jalen Hurts play in 2022, you go, holy shit, this guy is really good.

Now, part of it is they get him, AJ Brown. Obviously, they got Goddard's a really good player, Devonte Smith, Miles Sanders, their offensive line. But you just put Jalen in a vacuum. He has improved. I would say he has come farther in a short period of time as any quarterback as I remember in recent history. It was not. I mean, Josh Allen came a long way in a short period of time.

He was a seventh overall pick. Jaylon was a mid-second round pick. I mean, he's a, obviously he's a top 10 quarterback this year. I mean, we could argue where he goes, but you watch him go, that guy's really good. Now, how good is he going to be? Big playoff games, we'll see. But they're going to be the number one seed. They're going to get a buy.

He's got to win two games at home to get to the Super Bowl. And a couple things they got going for him. One, we've talked about this before. The AJ Brown trade is just an all-timer. And the Eagles, when Andy Reid took over in like 99 or 2000, whatever his first year was, to the transition to Howie, they have consistently been a big swing operation. They do not fuck around when it comes to opportunities. They have no problem making big trades.

And this is one on a long list that goes, holy shit, this is going to work. And that guy with that quarterback, like, it just flows. Now, we knew AJ was a really good player. We all watched him play with Tennessee, but he has taken Jalen to a completely different level. And here's the other thing. And I saw it early on with the 49ers. The majority of teams do not have one really good corner.

Like, if you have one really good corner, you're ahead of the pack. I was thinking, and maybe I'm crazy, I guess the Jets have a couple good corners. The majority of NFL teams do not feel good about their corner combination, let alone think we got two stud starting quarterbacks, cornerbacks. The Eagles traded for Slai a couple years ago. He's a stud. Also, you can hear him on the volume.

I watched his volume YouTube after the Steeler game. Dary Slae's good. Derry Sleigh was just breaking down the game. I was very entertained. Volume YouTube, check out Derry Sleigh. That's just, no one told me to do that. I swore to God, watched it on my own, was very impressed. James Bradbury, I mean, a couple years ago was viewed as like,

one of the better corners in the league. They have two high-end starting quarterbacks. Obviously, Slay is like a pro-bowler. Bradbury's, you know, probably right on the fringe. If you have two good starting cornerbacks and the rest of your team is really good, to me, if the Eagles coaches do not screw this up and Jaylen just play solid,

they're going to be a mother man. I don't think this Eagle team by any means of smoking mirrors, obviously when you're eight, no. But, I mean, anytime that you don't have like some super accomplished quarterback, but the two corners, the pass rush, the offensive skill guys, the offensive line. The birds are for real, man.

And on the flip side, I'm not breaking down the Texans. I don't care. They suck. I think at this point in time, in early November, it's a two-horse race for the number one overall pick. And the Texans, like, I think it's clear. Davis Mills does some things that are good, and you watch them sometimes, like, he stinks.

That's usually what a backup quarterback is. They drafted them the third round. They didn't invest that much. The Texans and the Lions are competing now for the number one overall pick. And the only question moving forward is, who is that going to be? Because, like, I know who I like. I mean, it's clear. Bryce is the best player.

And Will Levis is a very, very interesting prospect. So I text around my friends that do the SEC that are scouting directors. And they're all in agreement. Bryce Young, there is no dispute in a vacuum is the best quarter. in this class. There is no close second. The problem is Bryce Young is like my height. He's like 510, 5, 9 and a half.

And in the NFL, like, I'm sorry. I know there's been some recent guys in the last decade, Russell Wilson, Kyla Murray. You would rather have a guy that's 6 foot 4 or 6 foot 5. That's not Bryce. But the main problem with Bryce is not necessarily his height. He's like 175 pounds. He's tiny.

He is. is a remarkable player. And if you're listening to on Friday, you might watch him play LSU on Saturday night on the road. He'll throw three or four touchdowns. He is fucking badass. He is very small. And unlike Kyler, who's

also very small, Kyler is one of the greatest athletes the NFL has ever seen. He is one of the fastest quarterbacks, if not the fastest quarterback the NFL has ever seen. It's hard to get a hand on him. Bryce is really much more like Deshawn Watson.

and Russell Wilson, he's a good athlete, but he's much more of a scramble to throw guy. And then Will Levis is actually the premium prospect, the size, the strength, the arm, the pro-style offense. But he plays on a team with no NFL players besides his running back. And a lot of people chime in with C.J. Stroud. Listen, I'm not a C.J. Stroud hater. This is not some personal deal here, no personal bias. Everyone I talked to said he is probably not going to be a top five quarterback. We'll see.

Top five pick. excuse me, he'll be the third quarterback. It's between Bryce and Levis. I'm just, don't shoot the messenger here. Again, not a great athlete. Ohio State history. Still going to go probably in the top 10, but it's from who I talk to,

Levis, Bryce, in some order. Bryce, if he was bigger, would be a lock to go number one. And Levis, you could nitpick the box score all you want against Tennessee. Wasn't good. But he's not, he's playing with me and you at wide receiver. It's ugly.

And physically, we know guys that are 6'4, 6'5, good athletes, high character guys, with enormous arms, they usually don't fall in the draft. So right now the Texans and the Lions are basically competing for their picket the litter between those two guys. Football season is underway. So now is the perfect time to download FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook. Because right now, new customers get a no-swet first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back. if your first bet doesn't win.

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Max bet $5. Restrictions apply. See full terms at sportsbook.fandul.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-4-2-Arizona, 1888-88-88-88-G. Or visit cccdblog.org slash chat, Connecticut, 100 gambler, or visit fanduel. dot com slash RG, Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Virginia, 18777-7-7-7-7-1-7-1-1-7 for confidential help, Michigan.

18778, Hope, and Y, or text Hope N.Y, 467-369, New York, Tennessee, 800, 8888-97-89, Tennessee, 1-800-5-2-4700. Wyoming. Visit www.1-800 gambler.net, West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. And then on the trade deadline. Because I think most people, most of these teams, especially in 2022, are relatively in the same spot. Beside, you know, I'm recording this before the Thursday night, this part before a Thursday night game.

Obviously, there are a couple teams with great records. The bills, the Eagles, it's pretty clear the chiefs are pretty damn good. But I think a lot of other teams know the Ravens, the 49ers. You're just right in the mix, right? If Jamar Chase get healthy, if you're the Bengals, that you'd have a chance to win playoff games. And no one is a lot to win the Super Bowl every year, right? It's like no team is the 2017 Warriors.

We're just like, this team's winning it. Like the bills, everyone thinks they're the best team in the league. They haven't been in the Super Bowl in 30 years. So we all got to pump the brakes because we know football is a one-and-done sport. It's a one-off. And I think you saw a lot of teams being very aggressive, i.e. the Ravens, i.e. the Minnesota Vikings. And not everyone's always in the same spot. So I think sometimes you always got to figure out,

the number one thing you have to do as a GM as our head coach is evaluate your team correctly. Before you, because, listen, I bet in the front office, you're constantly evaluating the entire league, right? You're writing up every player on every team. You're writing up every future free agent. Your scouting staff is focused on every single draft pick. But the number one thing you have to do is worry about yourself.

I heard, because I was talking on my other podcast about when the Christian McCaffrey trade happened in the sky. Really, I mean, honestly, one of the smartest guys I know, works in finance, Stanford guy, hit me up. Because my whole point was like, I thought the Niners were, this is two weeks ago, I don't necessarily feel that way anymore. But, you know, when you get super aggressive because you don't want Christian McCaffrey to go to the Rams, I don't think that is the same as being super aggressive to get

Christian McCaffrey because you think he's a great player. And the reason the 49ers gave up so much draft capital was because, one, they were bidding against someone, but it was because of the team they were specifically bidding against, right? Do they give a two, a three, a four? If it's the bills or the chiefs, maybe not. But because it's the Rams, they had no choice. And he basically said in the game theory, and any smart person listening to this would know, that when you make a move because of your competition, that impacts one other person.

But when you make a move to, or, you know, if you make a move to diminish your competition, That has direct influence on one, one person, one team, whatever. When you make a move strictly to improve yourself, that influences every single person, right? All your competition. And we'll see how this plays out. And ultimately, Christian McCaffrey, if he's healthy, shit, he might just be an elite player again, and it doesn't matter.

It was worth outbidding the Rams, and it was worth adding him to outplay your competition and all these games moving forward, and he'll help you make a run in the playoffs. But not all these teams are the same, right? the Packers historically have been very conservative, especially when it comes to draft picks. They're very hesitant to make,

I don't want to say rash, but Rams like decisions, 49ers like decisions, Raven-like decisions. Andy Reid, like those teams at any moment will put their chips in the middle of the table on a given season.

They do not give a shit. They lean aggressive. The Packers like staying in the slow lane. And in fairness to them, historically, it's been a very, very, I don't know, Profitable is the way to put it with the team, but it's led to a lot of winning. And when you look at some of the teams that made trades this week,

you know, on the day a trade's made, we all are going to have a reaction. We're all human beings. You don't actually know until years later. Hell, even the Trey Lance trade, right? As of the day, it's a disaster for the 49ers. They gave up three picks. Jimmy Garapolo has really been their quarterback the last two years. And Trey Lance is now as a shattered ankle.

in the Miami Dolphins, and obviously the Niners wouldn't have used it on these players, but they've acquired Jalen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Bradley Chub. So that shows you the type ammunition, those picks would have netted the 49ers to use to build around the team they had. But it's always easy to play hindsight, but that's just a reality. Like ultimately, you make a trade based on the information you have. You make a draft pick based on the information you have. But then three or four years later, we can determine whether that was a good or bad move.

As the stock market plummets, a lot of people are going to invest in specific stocks. Some of those might net you a lot of money. Some of those might continue to suck even as times get better in two or three years. But no one knows that at the time. You're just making calculated risks. And that's what I thought a lot of the big teams that made trades did. Look at the Chicago Bears. I don't blame them for trading Roquan Smith.

He did not want to be there anymore. Now, I value middle linebacker more than a lot of people in the league. Because I think when you have an elite guy, he influences your entire team. The toughness of the team, the speed of the team, and ultimately how good your defense is. Why? Because when you have Patrick Willis, Luke Keekly, now Fred Warner, Bobby Wagner, forever, they make a shitload of tackles. And when you have a guy making tackles over and over and over throughout the game,

that's a good thing. Like, that's the point of defense. Now, and here's the other thing. Middle linebackers don't cost what corners and past resters cost. They actually are pretty cheap. They're kind of like a tight end. So when you get Travis Kelsey or George Kittle or in theory, Darren Waller when he was on the field, you're getting him at a discounted price.

So when I thought about Roquan Smith, I thought he makes a lot of sense. He feels like a Raven. He feels like a Steeler. He doesn't want to be there for the Bears. They flip him for a second. then the bears basically outbid it looks like the Packers for Chase Claypool and there's two ways to look at it at first my reaction was I think it's pretty stupid you're gonna give up a second round pick for a guy the Steelers which are basically

the cream of the crop when it comes to evaluating and figuring out who can play at wide receiver a guy they don't want who is cheap who clearly drives them nuts sometimes I think that's a bold move and then I also thought well you have Justin Fields on his rookie deal. The clock is going. And this guy is a very talented player. You're not giving up a first where you can really get burned.

You're not going to get a player who's more talented than this in the second round. But the moment you get him, his clock is now going, right? He's in year whatever two. So if he is good for you next year, you'd have to pay him. But you'd gladly pay him if he's worth it. Let's get this guy surrounded. Now here's the problem with the base. They basically have three guys,

Nikiel Harry, Dante Pettis, and Chase Claypool, who other teams drafted relatively high and then immediately gave up on. So that's who you're building around this guy. Now, Chase is the best of the bunch, but are you equipped to handle it? Now, I think Ryan Poles might tell you in a moment of truth. I didn't watch his press conference,

but if he's being honest, I need to evaluate this quarterback. I want to evaluate him the rest of the year, and obviously I want to evaluate him next year. We plan on adding more of this offseason with our cab space, with our draft picks, but we thought we had a good value. It made some sense, so we did it. And I get it.

Because ultimately this team is going to go or fail with this guy, Justin Fields. If Justin Fields sucks, they're going to suck for a while. If Justin Fields plays like he is right now, they're going to be semi-competitive. If he can take another step and their passing game can take another step, they could be compete to be a wildcar team. So they're going to go as far as the quarterback's taking them. So I understand the move. The Minnesota Lions trade.

The Lions suck. I mean, they are headed right now for the first overall pick. And because the Rams, who might turn out, I mean, if the Rams lose this week, I mean, they're headed for a six-win season. There's a chance that the Lions have the number one overall pick and then like the 10th pick in the draft. And all of a sudden, you're looking at a team

that within a couple years is going to be able to accumulate a lot of talent. So when I look at the Lions, I go, when the Steelers trade Chase Claypool, I give Tomlin and the organization the benefit of the doubt. I go, yeah, this kid must be a pain to deal with. They're giving up on them this quick. And it's not, well, they got George Pickett's. No, if they like Chase Claypool, they would not have traded him. And then I look at Minnesota, who clearly is a player or two right there for competing for the NFC.

It's wide open. Assuming Kirk Cousins doesn't shit the bad, which you never can't. because in big games, he doesn't always play as well. And I can't give the Lions the benefit of the doubt. Because like I said with linebackers, tight-ins don't cost you very much. Now, they drafted a tight-end. Their receiving core looks pretty good, win-healthy.

They have Jameson Williams, who knows if he may be red shirts this year, but he's going to be on the team. Maybe TJ was in their running team, but they got good running backs. Maybe he was going to be the odd man out so you get some value. But to me, if he's good for Minnesota, which I imagine he's, going to be. Typically, Detroit, when they've traded guys, talented players, they've looked bad.

So if they win this one, it'll be the first one they've won for a while. To me, if I'm Minnesota, getting T.J. and a fourth for a second and a third, a guy that I'll gladly extend, especially like Thielen's getting up there in age, put him with Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. Obviously, a tight end for Kirk Cousins makes a lot of sense. Feels like a pretty easy trade. One trade that I go back and forth on. Trent Balke doesn't give a shit about character, has never cared. Now, I gamble.

So I'm not bagging on Calvin Ridley's character when it comes to gambling on a game. Though, it's very, very well established when you work in the NFL, especially as a coach, player, or executive, gambling is not tolerated. Now, it's weird because it's become so much more universal to these last couple years

as the NFL's balls deep with obviously fan dole, all the companies. Can't say the other companies on this podcast because Fando's a loyal sponsor. But like the players know, you cannot gamble on the games. And then he takes a mental health break that we learned that he was caught up with some bad people

getting threatened, weird spot. But he was also gambling on the games on the side, gets in trouble. Calvin Ridley was a really good player before that happened. And remember last year before he got suspended, the Eagles were willing to trade a first round pick to get Calvin Ridley. So teams value the guy as a player.

But the Jags, like, where is this trade? Who else are you bitten against in this situation? And I just, like the Lions, it's hard for me to give the benefit of the doubt to the Jags. Just like the Lions trade in T.J. Hawkinson. If the Ravens had traded for Calvin Ridley or the Eagles or the Rams, I'd go, yeah, that's probably going to work out. But when the Lions and the Jags do something, I say this all the time. Brandon Staley always loved using the word process. you can only

Nick Sabin gets to use the word process. Why? Because his results make us curious about what the hell is he doing to dominate. Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, when they talk about their process,

we want to hear about it. Why? Because the end result of whatever they're doing works. Whatever the Jags and the lions have been doing year after year after year hasn't worked.

So I can't give them the benefit of the doubt. And here's the thing. When the 49ers really started to fall apart, it was bulky just trying to outthink the room. At the time, he was always drafting guys that had torn ACLs, guys that were going to be top 20 picks that he'd get in the second and third round

because they tore their ACL either during the season or in the off season leading up to the draft. Every single one of those guys failed. They all blew up in his face. And it's just like to me, if I'm the Falcons, I could just unload the guy. I think it has a chance if he plays next year to be a conditional second. Like obviously the Falcons weren't bringing this guy back,

especially with Drake, London, Kyle Pitts. But I just, it's hard for me to give that a thumbs up to the Lions. And the one that's pretty clear, having watched him play, that has a chance to be the best trade of this time, I'd put Roquan right behind it because I think Roquan is going to fit in perfect. If Christian McCaffrey is healthy, I had kind of forgotten how good the kid was. I mean, he's 26 years old. Which, when I say kid, I thought he was 30,

because he's been the league forever. It's like, yeah, they just got a 30-year-old running back. Turns out he's 26 years old. Then you watch him in that game, like it's a no-brainer for a second and third, fourth round pick if he's going to be like that and be involved with and have a chance to either catch,

run. I know he's not going to throw for touchdowns every game, but he's a threat every single game to get you multiple touchdowns, just like Debo Samuel is for the 49ers. And when you get both those guys on the field at the same time with an offensive coach who likes to get the ball to his guys behind the line of scrimmage,

it's going to be pretty good. And honestly, watching that game made sense why it was worth for them to mainly outbid their competition, but ultimately get the guy on their team. It's a big story, I guess, of the last like 48 hours, the Washington football team, the commanders, he went, Dan Snyder, got Bank of America

to start kind of fishing around. And it's pretty clear that like this team, if he actually puts it on the open market, would get $6.7 billion. Right? The Denver Broncos just went for 4.66. To me, this thing's going for 6 or 7. The market, the division, the upside is as high as the sun.

To me, though, I struggle with this one. Like, I'll believe it when I see it. I'm not saying he's not interested, but it's one of those, like, does this get everyone off his back a little bit? If he just puts it out there that he's willing to sell the team? Like, when he actually sells the team, then I'll believe. believe it. But until then, I feel like this is all like Dan Snyder's moves to keep people

off his back, to keep dodging stuff. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong. Because I think the NFL would love, look at their last two owners. Dave Tepper, who like him and Steve Cohen, were really the characters that Axelrod in billions was developed after. The Walton family, who just bought the Broncos, who's obviously one of the richest families in the world. And who do you think they're going to want to buy the Washington commanders. Jeff Bezos. So within the last three purchases, they'll have added Walmart, Amazon, and an all-time great stock finance guy. And I always think about this, like, if you're someone in the last year, let's say in 2021, you bought a house. Let's say you bought it for $2 million. There are probably people in your neighborhood, if you bought a house for $2 million

that bought a similar home in a similar right down the street from you 30, 40 years ago for two, 300 grand. Yet those people are the same people that are going to tell you when you're going to want to do something to your front yard, cut down a treat, that that's not allowed. I see it sometimes with my mother. She's part of the HOA committee where she lives. Now, she's made a lot of improvements. Her house is really nice.

But she bought it a long time ago, late 70s, early 80s, I think. And I've always thought about the people that come in. you should send flowers to your neighbors that pay premiums for houses around you for increasing your home's value. So I understand if they want to screw it up. But if they want to do their own improvements, these HOA, let them be. They just made you a shit ton of money. Tip your hat. But I understand in those people's situation, it's hard to be talked down to by other people in their neighborhood. Now Zillow, I know exactly how much you paid for your house. I know that I just made you a lot of money. And I think about it with Bezos, with the Waltons, with Tepper.

How do they sit in these owners meetings, assuming Dan Snyder, you know, sells? And like, and listen, I understand a Mike Brown, a John Mara, a Mark Davis, these people have been, the Roonies, have been stalwarts of the NFL forever. But when you buy the team in the hundreds of millions or maybe 90 million, 80 million, 50 million, $200 million? How are like, how do I view myself as equal to you when I just pay $5 billion for the team? And I go, without me, or, you know, there's five or six other people that are possible to be me, you wouldn't be near as worth what you are because of the value that I'm bringing to the league just by purchasing this team, showing what the value of your team is, even if it's in a smaller market worth less whatever.

every time these teams are purchased, every single team in the league goes up dramatically, whether you're the Dallas Cowboys or the Cincinnati Bengals. So I'm going to be fascinated to watch moving forward how the NFL, because when they're selling these teams, there's a small fucking list of people that can afford it. The interactions with the owners, for a long period of time, like, it was Al Davis,

it was Jerry Jones, it was the Roonies, it was the Mars, it was Eddie de Bartolo, it was in Spanos, it was all kind of the crew that came in similar times, you know, give or take 10, 20 years. But if you spend 50 million and I spent 125 million, like, there's a big difference between. You spent 250 million and I just spent 7 billion? Like, we ain't the same, dog. So that's something that just fascinates me and I'm interested to watch how that plays out.

I'm going to end on this. People think I hate the Raiders. I really don't. I appreciate their history. They always spend a lot of time around it. It felt very collegiate. I say that all the time. It felt very, very collegiate.

The Niners have that too. Like, you go to their practices, the Niners and the Raiders. It's like, shit, there's Howie Long. Right. There is, you know, he passed away when I was a part of it, but there's Kenny the Snake Stabler. There's Ronnie Lott. There's Charles. There's Charles Haley.

There's Jerry Rice. There's Tim Brown. It's cool. It's very, very cool, actually. And Ray Guy just died, who recently got in the Hall of Fame, who's widely considered one of the best, if not the best punters of all time and one of the best specialists ever. Pretty nuts that Ray Guy was a first round pick. You know, you think about Al Davis who just, I think he spoke.

You know, now they tape it all. You know, back in the day, right, the presenter used to talk. Sometimes they'd go forever. I think Al Davis set a record in the NFL for presenting the most Hall of Famers. I think he's like eight or nine because he was unique, right? He was the owner and he was the general manager. So if you were on his team, he literally picked you or signed you. And he drafted Ray Guy a punter 23rd overall in 1973.

Can you imagine if you drafted a punter in the top 32 picks in 2022 what people would do or a kicker? And he obviously took Seabas, you know, 30 years later. But imagine like, and this is where when drafts happen. and you never know. Even if the guy was the best punter, to me, Justin Tucker would be worth it. But you would never know at the time and you would get destroyed.

Because what if you miss? I remember a couple years ago, probably five or six now, when Jason Light, who's a pretty damn good drafter, took the Aguio kid, the kicker from Florida State, and he was basically a bust by training camp.

Remember, he couldn't hit a kick. And it was just one of the great unravelings we've ever seen. And I actually was in the car today. I had to run some air. And I was listening to, I was flipping around channels and the Mad Dog radio. And Ernie of coursey, the famous former general manager of the New York Giants and longtime NFL executive was being interviewed. He was calling him and Mad Dog, Chris Rooster our buddies.

He actually had a really good point. I'd never thought of as a scout. He said that, you know, punters for the most part are pretty bust proof. They might not be as good as you think, but they're going to be, if the guy's an NFL punter in college, he's going to be an NFL punter. punter once he gets to the league. Now how good he is is going to depend on how hard he works. He can improve, but like, what you see is somewhat what you get. Because he was

in, even back in Ray Guy was coming out, everyone knew Ray Guy was going to be really good. The greatest punter of all time. No. He's like kickers. He's like Joe Paterno told me one time, kickers are a lot like golfers. It can go at any moment. Mentally, you could lose it. You could just start, I played golf on

Wednesday afternoon. I was humming. Had three birdies. And maybe it was just because I was tired. By like, hole 16, I got the shanks. I got the shanks. I shanked a wedge. I shanked a four iron. I shanked a six iron. I had no clue what was going on.

That's golf. Kicking's the same thing. At any moment mentally, you can just lose it. He's like drafting kickers is way more difficult than drafting punters. Now, we could argue how valuable a punter is in modern day football. It was clearly much more valuable 70s at lower scoring games. I know we're having a lower scoring season. but in games where you're running the ball a lot,

ball position, defense, that style of football. And Ray Guy died. I think one of the more underrated draft picks that we just never talked. A punter? 23rd overall. And one point Ernie made on this interview was like,

well, the Raiders were really, really good at the time. That was the John Madden Raiders. They went to like seven straight AFC championship games. They won a Super Bowl. So they could afford to make a bold pick like that. But there's a reason that older people, They got to see Al Davis in his heyday spoke about such reverence of the guy. His vision for the sport, for the game, for his team was really ahead of the time.

And that's an all-time draft pick and RIP Ray guy. And last been on Lee, and I've thought a lot about, because what the Dolphins did was very bold, right? They traded the 49ers pick, which is a first rounder. And the 49ers is not like they're 7 and 1. I mean, they're four and four. Though, it's pretty clear there'd probably be a 10 or 11 win team. But still, like, having a pick in the 20s when you, like, that's a big deal just to give up for a pass rusher. And I've watched Bradley Chubb loosely.

I haven't, like, studied him like a top guy. And a lot of people that I text with said he was like, they wouldn't put him on the high end. He's a really good player. And the way the Dolphins paid him after trading for him reflects that, right? He got a little more than Max Crosby, even though I think Max Crosby, I haven't watched the Raiders much lately. I would take Max Crosby over Bradley Chub, but we could argue that. And if a guy like Max Crosby or Bradley Chub hit the open market, which they never do,

a guy of that talent at 26, 27 years old in the peak of their powers at that position. Left tackles, pass rushers, and obviously quarterbacks, you could argue top wide receivers, never hit the open market in their prime. Because if they did, if they are, let's just pick a number. $60 million guaranteed guy, they'd end up getting $85 because you have a bidding process, i.e. last year, Christian Kirk.

I'm not comparing into those guys, but my point is when you hit the open market, you get guys bidding on you, and your number goes up. So if you're the Miami Dolphins, you need to improve your defense. If Bradley Chubb was a free agent, you would be heavily involved in signing them.

And ultimately, the number, which I saw that they signed him for, $110 million, $10 million, $60 plus guarantee. would actually be, you'd have to increase that by like 20 to 25% based on basically the inflation of free agency. So, which they would really want that guy and they would ultimately try to sign them. And they probably would, right?

No state income tax, Miami, easy place to get a guy to come play. They basically just traded that one for the right to make sure you got them, right? Which is a high price to pay. But if you're them and you go, well, the 49ers who just won with Christian McCaffrey, Let's just say that they go 10 and 7 or 11 and 6. They win the division. Well, we saw them last year they won a couple of playoff games. Let's just say they win one playoff game because it's a home playoff game.

And all of a sudden that pick is 26. Well, more than likely, we're not going to get a player statistics show. You know, it's like at that point in time, 30 to 35 percent, you're going to get an elite starting player, you know, in the late 20s. And the chances that he's a good player like Bradley Chubb is, you know, very, very low. So if you're them, your owner clearly wants to win, you're pretty competitive, though,

I think we have to all agree there is a clear tier, right? There's the bills, the chiefs, let's say Roquan and the Ravens are right behind them. Like, I'm sorry, until Tua does, like, is anybody, I'm a gambler, and under no circumstances, because Miami's not going to win the division. So if you're not going to win the division, that means you're going to play on the road in the playoffs. I can't see them playing a team, I guess unless they play the Titans,

that I would gamble on the dolphins to win with Tua Tanga Viloa as their starting quarterback. So more than likely, they are not going to win a playoff game. But you add Bradley Chub, maybe Waddle, Hill, they just go nuts,

Tua plays the game of their life. If the dolphins go to the second round of the playoffs, that trade is worth it. You could argue if they make the playoffs is worth it. they've won 19 games the last two years, but I understand it. To me, you look at the Broncos, like, did Denver do this trade because they were never going to pay this guy? Now, their general

manager didn't draft them, but usually when you have good pass rushers, you don't like letting them walk. Russell's number takes a lot on their cap. They don't have a pick because they don't have several years of picks, right, because they traded for Russell Wilson. So this is all a trickle-down effect of making the trade for a quarterback who is no longer an elite quarterback. And these are the ramifications of the decisions that you make. It's kind of like when we nitpick the Packers, like, well, when your quarterback makes $150 million, you know, guaranteed $50 million a year, you know, you're going to be missing some key positions because you're not able to pay for them.

And you've got to hope you draft players that fill those spots. And sometimes it's easier said than done. because we all feel that, oh, we got these three team needs, right? A wide receiver, a linebacker, and a safety. We got seven draft picks. Let's go fill them. And then you draft, and then by the time the season comes, you're like, well, this safety kind of sucks,

and this wide receiver's got a while to go. It's hard. It's the NFL. So I understand what the Dolphins did, a little bit of an overpay, but you're basically overpaying for the right to buy the player who would have been a free agent. Anytime a guy hits free agency or no lock to,

to do. And I think the Broncos are a good example of, you know, a team that made a bold trade and is not in a great position. And now they got to think long term because of what they gave up for the quarterback. So that was a little bit of a wow trade. But, you know, I understand both sides. Well, when I finished recording on Monday night, a lot of the trade deadline action did not happen. And we'll dive into that here in a second. I think the last thing that, the big thing that we saw was Roquan Smith, but then a lot of stuff happened on Tuesday. And I honestly thought one of the biggest

stories of Tuesday was a trade that didn't happen. And I think for the first time of this era with Sean McVeigh and Les Need and their company motto fuck them picks, they finally ran out of picks. And they ran out of resources.

And every team in the NFL has the same amount of resources, right? You just get to choose how you want to allocate it. Just like every team in the league has the same amount of money. Every team in the NFL gets a revenue share from the media rights deals that pays for their players. So unlike baseball where the A's and the raise and some of these teams cannot financially be viable with the Dodgers, the Giants, the Yankees, the Cardinals or whatever, that is not the case in the NFL. If Dean Spanos or Mike Brown want to sign a player to the same amount of

money as Jerry Jones or John Mara or Jeffrey Lurie, they can't. And I think it's what makes for great parody in the league to really run circles around the other major sports in the NFL. But the Rams, and I've supported this, like they've been very aggressive with their picks. They have been consistently winning with this philosophy. And they're just Super Bowl champions. But this year, they're clearly not as good. And they've made two bold moves. One, they got outbid by their division rival. And they did not land Christian McCaffrey. And as we talked about, I think earlier this week, they don't have a running game. They're running back suck. I like Ronnie Rivers, I'm a Fresno State guy.

He should not be a starting running back in the NFL, and he's their starting running back. And then this week, they got denied on Brian Burns. I don't know, star pass rusher, I would go as far, but a really, really good player, young player, you could argue an ascending player. Bold to have two first round picks, yes, but anytime you can get a top-notch pass rusher,

I think you have to entertain it. But the Carolina Panthers said no. And I think most people think that they said no because they wanted to keep a great player. I think the reason they said no is because the assets you're giving me, you're giving me a first round pick in three years. The NFL does not value that as a first round pick on the day of the trade. That is a devalued asset.

Like if you offer me a second round pick in 2025 right now for a player, let's just say the trade deadline was next week. And you trade, I trade you a good player for a second round pick. But it is not this draft. It's not in the following year's draft. in three drafts. I don't value that as a second round player. No different than if I give you a million dollars right now or I give you a million dollars in three years, it's not worth the same. If you've ever taken a business class past high school, you know, it's time value money. Money now is worth more

now than money in the future. I've always used the example of Bobby Bonilla. Turns out I was wrong. I always thought Bobby Bonilla turned down $30 million in the early 2000s to get $30 million later. He actually turned down $6 million because the Willponds were balls deep with the Madoffs and thought the Madoffs were going to make them so much money that it wouldn't phase them to take that $6 million, defer it plus 8% interest, and pay them. So instead of taking $6 million, Bobby Midea is going to make over $30 million. What are the great business decisions of all time? But it usually works in reverse, right?

And I think the way the Rams, they just finally ran out of capital. You know, and forever, they've always had more capital. They were willing to give two ones and a two. They were willing to give two ones in Jared Gopfer from Matt Saffer. They were consistently willing to do things that other teams just hesitated on. And they were no longer in a position, not that they didn't have the same mindset because they did. They were willing to make, they were willing to trade more than the 49ers for Christian McCaffrey. But they didn't have the ammo in this year's upcoming draft.

And most NFL GMs or coaches, you get fired at any moment. So two drafts away, let alone three, like, I'm sorry, it does not have the value to me. So I think the Rams, like, their mindset clearly hasn't changed. There's been a lot of talk that, like, Sean McVeigh will retire when his core group retires. Maybe so. Who knows? I mean, he's super rich now. He's got a pretty good gig.

The NFL, like, Matt Stafford, Jalen Ramsey, and Cooper Cup, like, are they still elite players in three years, let alone like five? So who knows with their situation? So being aggressive, if you're less need, keeps Sean. McVeyer round, I get it. But I think this was a pretty black and white decision from the Carolina Panthers. If you had your first round pick this year, I think the deal gets done. You're going to give me two ones for the guy, but the second first round pick wouldn't be for three drafts. I can't value that thing like a first round pick. This is not the NBA where they're like, oh, I'll give you a first round pick in 2020. I don't give a shit. Right. Look at the Miami Dolphins.

They got those three first round picks from Trey Lance, right? They basically flipped a mall within 18 months. And they acquired Jalen Waddle. They acquired Tyree Kill and Bradley Chub. I mean, they acquired Tyree Kill and Bradley Chub with those two extra first round picks in less than six months. So I'm all for being aggressive, but being aggressive, like it doesn't, when you get overly aggressive, which you could argue they have been, you can put yourself in somewhat of a predicament because you don't have the capital to compete with other teams. And it's just, that's the way the world works, right? Google and Apple have more resources than like your local boutique. You know, that's just the nature of the business. But in the NFL, all these people have the

same resources. You just get to choose how to allocate it. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Okay, back with my main man Stucky, who is, you know, I wouldn't say scorching hot, but he's 17 and 12 on the season. He's making money at a good week. week last week. You know, I tried to convince them. I like the lions against the dolphins. I'm pretty sure you like the dolphins.

And yeah, you just, you never bet on Dan Campbell. You can find them on the Action Network podcast on Thursday, as well as big bets on campus. Go subscribe to that bad boy. I know his wildcats got their ass kicked by Tennessee. Stucky, what's up, bro? What's going on? No, actually, I had the lines with you.

It was an interesting NFL week. There was a lot of bets that came down to, like, ran into something. Oh, you did? I had the Lions money line. You had the points. I went Money Line parlay. That's where you get hit in the teeth. Yeah.

Hopefully some people got four. I had some three and a half, which was terrible. They led the whole game. But the Lions had a chance to, at late driving, didn't convert a fourth down. Cardinals had a chance late, driving, didn't convert a fourth down. The Packers then drive and get in the back door. So it was one of those weeks. But we're on to.

this week and oh and the Patriots were pretty easy. Zach Wilson is just a disaster. Oh my God. I think the Packer game is a good example of when you get that many points with a just credible operation, right? I know they're having a rough year, but I mean they got Aaron fucking Rogers. Like that is a lot of points because you go, you're watching the first half. They're like they're going to lose by 50. Well, that's not, this isn't college. That's usually not how this thing works. Yeah. That's why. That's why. Yeah. That's why. Yeah. It sounds cliche to say I have a Hall of Fame quarterback catching 11.

But if I'm down, I said if I'm down 14 to 17 late with the ball, it could be in worse situations than to have a Hall of Fame quarterback on your side. And they went 95 yards to get in the back door, fortunately. This is the biggest spread of his career, right, as an underdog? Yeah. First time he was ever a double-digit underdog. He's now 4-0 against the spread as an underdog over six points, all four were on Halloween weekend for what it's worth.

Big picture, because I've heard it a lot, and I'm sure you have too, and I know you're digging in the numbers. You know, moving forward when they play good teams, like, I mean, they're not, do you think they're going to get respect moving forward, or are they going to be a team that you might be able to get some value on? You know, the 49ers last year were three and five,

and they kind of figured out some stuff. I know it's a little different. Their passing game sucks, and they're depending on these receivers and a couple of them are hurt. Or do you think just stay away from the, Packers? Yeah, I think that they'll have some value, especially as an underdog. I do think that the market has gone a little bit too far the other way on them, because I do believe that the rookie receivers will get better, and they'll get their timing down with Rogers. But their offense is

actually better than people assume. So they have no explosiveness, right? There's nothing vertical, but they're like sixth in success rate. They're actually moving the ball. They're, they have the worst fourth down percentage in the NFL. They're 18%. Their third down percentage is really low. They were 0 for two and fourth down against the bills, like the four, bills 40 yard line. So their drives are just getting killed, and fourth downs are highly varied.

Like, there's a lot of variance there. So, and it's tough. They're going to have to drive down the field, but I think their offense will get a little bit better. The thing with them is that once they get a lead, so once their drives start turning into points, then their defense is good because their defense, which played well last week against Josh Allen, picked them off twice, can defend the pass. So it's built to play with a lead. But if they're playing from behind, they can't stop the run. And then the team is just has a

lead and is running it. And then it's just, they pile on. So yeah, I think especially as an underdog, you don't really want to lay points, you know, a big number with this team because their offense is so limited. But I do think that the Packers might have some value. here coming up. Before we dive into the three games, we talked last week at the end about the Niners. I mean, are you buying now? Their ability to make some hay here in this, the NFC?

Yeah, I've said it all along. I was so impressed last week. And it's like without Debo, without use check. And then the defense isn't fully healthy yet. And I think once the defense is fully healthy, I would argue it's, now the Broncos are just going to wear down. eventually, but the Broncos are fully healthier up there. You go back to that Broncos, 49ers, getting there's like 11-10.

But 49ers are one of the three best defenses in the NFL and can argue the best. And then, you know, that offense now, once they get all the parts fully healthy, you know, their tackles are back. Debo with McCaffrey there. Yeah, I think that they are, it's them or the Eagles. and I would love to see those two teams play. The Eagles are just going to cruise, and maybe it's going to be a shock to the system

where they have to play a good team. And if you jump out on the Eagles, like make them play from behind. I don't know when the next time they're going to play from behind because their schedule is a joke. But, yeah, it's 49ers or Eagles, maybe Cowboys next rung, and that's the NFC because it's very weak.

Do you think Minnesota is basically a lock two-seat? because that to me like, you know, if the Niners end up 10 and 7 again or let's say 11 and 6, assuming Seattle comes back to, like, they should win the division. But that's probably more unlikely just because, you know, the Vikings, you just kind of have a little cushion with only one loss. Division kind of stinks. I mean, it feels like they're just kind of cruising for that two seed, assuming that the Eagles go like 15 and 2.

Yeah, it's, yeah, they'll probably be, yeah, I would assume there are two, but it doesn't really matter. It's like the one and that's ultimately what matters. It's basically the Niners would play the Vikings, assuming they both win that first round. They'd have to go on the road. Which the four-in-hers don't mind doing that they... No, they did last year. Yeah, so, yeah, I think that it's the Niners and Eagles and the NFC clear one-two hierarchy.

And it's very top-heavy the NFC. Okay, let's dive into this week, which is, you know, feels like a pretty crappy slate. Right. This game, I mean, I'm sorry you, I get paid to watch and talk about football. You can't. The Colts, I just can't consume them. Like, that is a terrible fucking product. Now, the Patriots, as you said last week, they just are going to struggle to score.

You know, they're going to have to win. I mean, they're going to win their games in the teens and keep you, hopefully, around single digits to low teens. Like, that's just, they're going to win 17 to 13, right? 17 to 10, like 14 to 9. Like that's going to be there. So five and a half for them. But like Sam Ellinger against Belichick,

this game would make me a little, I just couldn't bet on the Colts. How about you? Yeah, I took the Colts here and it's kind of ugly. But this, the scoring is so down in the NFL this year that it is, it's difficult to build margin, especially with an offense that's limited. as the Patriots have.

You know, and you look this year, dogs of over a field goal in 2022 are 47 and 26 against the spread, 64.4%. Obviously, lower scoring, closer games, harder to build a margin. And I thought Ellinger looked good last week. I mean, he was 11 of 13, 150 yards in the second half, including a 20-yard drop by Pittman that he put right on the money that could have won them in the game late. And, you know, when I look at the matchup of these two teams, the one good thing about the Colts this year has been their run defense. It's top five run-D. They also, you know, have Shaq Leonard back now. Quitty Pay should come back.

That's their strength is their run defense. And that's what the Patriots do. Well, they run it. Mack Jones is struggling this year. You know, you saw last week got a pick six that could have changed that game around, but there was a roughing the pass on an awful throw. I mean, he's 25th in EPA per play. So, yeah, I just think that the Colts run defense can battle here. The Colts have shot at him Taylor is 100%.

He's dealing with an ankle injury. He can have some success on the ground against the Patriots run D that's struggling. And I just think it'll be a low-scoring. Total's 38 and a half. So you're going to give me five and a half here. Yeah. Mack Jones also has struggled against Zone. The Colts run a lot of.

So I like the match up. I like getting five and a half. in a game that should be really low scoring. So, yeah, I'll take the points here. Rams at Tampa, you know, eventually Brady's just kind of draw a line in the sand or just quit. I just think the Rams aren't that good. I mean, they're just, they're fatally flawed. They have no running backs.

Cooper Cup, I know they're trying to downplay it, but I mean, he limped off the field. It did not look good. And if you've watched the Rams, they're basically like, an NBA team and he's one of their stars and without him they can't function. So if he is 80%, they would be in major, major trouble.

I guess I would take, maybe just short the ramps. I mean, are we looking at the lions end up drafting number one overall and they get like the seventh pick because the Rams end up at 6 and 11? I think the Rams are closer to 6 and 11 this year than they are a 10-win team. I mean,

they have major, major issues. So I'm just, I would just short the Rams for as bad and weird as Tampa has been. Yeah, I agree. This is partly a play on Tampa. You know, they're getting healthier, right? So early in the year, they had all their receivers were out. The last couple weeks they've had a bunch of defenders out.

They're coming off a mini-buye here. Yeah. Another home game. Rams are traveling across the country. And look, I think that the Bucks right now have a better offense. Let's look at adjust the DPA per play, adjust for opponent. Buck's offense is 20th in the NFL this year.

The Rams 32nd. Dead last. How about the quarterbacks, just at APR play? Brady 13th, Stafford 26th. And then on the defense, Rams 16th, Buck's 8th. Special teams, bucks been better. So the better offense, the better defense, the better special teams, the better quarterback, in a good situation at home with extended rest.

And their best player, Rams best player, might be banged up. And, you know, I don't think either team is going to have success running the ball. What about Tampa's Division, too? I mean, they are pretty much alive. As crappy as everything is gone, right? Yeah, it's crazy. And when you also look at what Brady has done this year, he's, you know, he's dealt with the offensive line. It's not as good.

The receivers have been hurt. And when he's under pressure, he's just getting rid of the ball. Like, he doesn't trust the offense line. He's getting rid of the ball so quick. That's when he's not looked right. when he has a clean pocket, still has elite numbers, actually leads the league in big time throws with a clean pocket, nine touchdowns, one interception. Believe it or not, the Rams have the second lowest pressure rate in the NFL, 12%. I mean, this is Luzvon Miller and it's, hey, let's just block

Aeron Donald with three guys, and they're not getting any pressure. Second lowest, it's them and the Falcons are down at 11, 12%. So Brady should have a clean pocket. He had receivers are lot healthier off extended rest. And yeah, I mean, you look at what Stafford is doing. I mean, Stafford has a negative EPA per play. So every time he drops back this year, on average, is costing his team points. Here's the teams with, excuse me, here are the quarterbacks with negative EPA per play. Besides Stafford. Winston benched, Ryan benched, Trubisky benched. Zach Wilson should be benched. Wendt, benched. Wendt benched. Flacco benched. Mayfield benched, Davis Mills, and Kenny Pickett, who should probably be sitting on benches

right now. That's it. And his average depth of target is 5.9 yards. That's the lowest in the NFL. Last year was 8.5. Three years ago, he led the NFL at 10.8. This offense is broken. The defense is not getting any pressure and has been bad. So yeah, I'll take two desperate teams here, I'll take the bucks to get revenge at home in a good spot. And if Cup is banged up at all or you can't go, it's trouble time for the Rams. Okay. Let's another NFC West battleground here. Somehow Seattle's in first place, which they're definitely a lot better than we all envision. But, you know, at the end of the day, are they going to end up an eight nine team more closely than a 10 and, you know, seven team. I would probably bet on that.

You had the stat last week. You could correct me if I'm wrong. Is it 27 points they average with Hopkins and 17 without them or is it 18? Yeah. It's a huge difference. And you feel it when you watch them play. I mean, that fucking guy is just, you just throw the ball up and he makes the catch. He is a monster. Kyler's comfortable with him. You know, for, I hate everything about him, but not, not Hopkins, but just the operation, the Arizona Cardinals, they are a much scarier version, even if they are, you know, a non-playoff team. They are better than the majority of non-playoff teams, right? Just when they're quarterback, especially at home in a dome.

Now, does he care? Are they over the season? Who knows? Seattle obviously has a lot to play for. I mean, you win this game. All of a sudden, you're six and four, and you're kind of with the Niners being off. And if the Rams lose, you just beat the Cardinals again. You know, I mean, you'd be in pretty good shape.

So, I mean, Seattle has a lot on the line in this game. But I do just wonder if Arizona, and they just score a lot of points right now. So I would struggle putting money on Cliff and Kyler, but they feel like the play here. Yeah, I played the Cardinals here. I hate it. But last week I played them plus four.

I played again. It was a dead even game. The Cardinals lose it on muffed punt, basically. At the end of the game, they were getting the ball back down to a muffed punt. Viking scored touchdown a 20-yard drive. And then the Cardinals go down the field and turn it over on downs inside Minnesota territory. Game ends a touchdown in a completely statistically even game. Cardinals succeed.

They just start. They start so slow. Yeah. It's horrendous. I don't know what they do. It's the coaching staff, but it's really bad. But I have to bet the Cardinals here as much as I hate it. My overall general philosophy, I think if I boil down how I've always bet NFL is it's sort of,

and I have a background of finance. It's sort of like the market. And I'm trying to buy low, buy the bottom of the market on the team and sell the top or the sell high when a team reaches, it's what I consider its peak. And I think that's it for Seattle right now. These two teams just played a couple weeks ago. Arizona was a two and a half point favorite at Seattle. One of the best home field advantages in the NFL.

Also, DeAndre Hopkins did not play in that game. So, yes, we've, you know, upgrade the Seahawks for that win. Ugly game. The game was 12-9 in the fourth quarter. Both teams average about four and a half yards per play. Now I can get Arizona minus two at home with Hopkins back. I have to take it. This, look, before the season started, people were saying Seattle was the worst team in the league, by far.

It's them and the Falcons, right? And now, and then the Texans. Now people are saying, is Gino Smith MVP? Are the Seahks a potential threat to win the NFC? Reading all these articles, hearing all these things about Seattle. Everyone wants to back Seattle. By the way, this is the biggest public bet of the week, me. I don't really care about those splits, but it tells me that the line, okay, the line

isn't wrong. Everyone still wants to bet Seattle. So I think this is the top of the market. And like, now we've gone from, we've done a complete 180 on Seattle. They're obviously way better than anticipated. And Gino Smith, is he Rich Gannon, like a guy that was a perennial backup now rejuvenates his career or is it just like a flash in the pen against, you know, like Nick Foll's one season. People are acting like they're the bills or the chiefs on the Pacific Northwest. It's crazy. And then look, let's look at who they beat. They beat the Broncos and Russell Wilson, who have been to disaster, and they should have lost that game. The Broncos were inside the 10, 15 times. They beat the Lions by 48, 45. Lions are down St. Brown and Swift. They beat the Cardinals, we just talked about without Hopkins. They beat the Chargers, like missing 10 starters. And then they just beat the Giants. So I don't think anyone thinks is really good. And that's their wins this year. The Broncos, you know, Underman Lions, Cardinals without Hopkins, Chargers missing 10 starters, and the Giants.

And now everyone is saying, you know, and they got drilled by the 49ers. Everyone has forgot about that. So, yeah, I think the love has just gone too far in Seattle. This is, it's not a great team by any stretch. They're not bottom of the barrel. So I'm going to try and sell high here. And hopefully Cliff has his boys ready. They're not down 17-0.

three minutes into the game. Any takes on the two big SEC games, Georgia, Tennessee and BAM ASU? Yeah, I have. Is there a value in Louisiana State University? Yeah, I'm waiting on 14. I think if you can get 14. There's some holes on this Alabama team,

particularly, you know, their offensive line isn't as strong as it has been. Elisu has a really good defensive line. Their receivers just haven't panned out. Like Bryce Young is incredible. and some of the plays that he makes and extending plays. But they just lack explosiveness at times that the receiver position compared to, you know,

the bar is very high compared to years past. And they're secondary. It has some holes we saw. We've seen at times them get exposed there. And LSU is kind of trending up on with their passing offense. I do, I do, I would like 14 in that game. But I do think Tennessee has a lot of value. And this is going to be a big public play.

Everyone is on Tennessee. This is the same thing against Alabama. I think this line is too high. This Tennessee offense is real. It is spectacular. And I don't know if this Georgia defense is ready for it. This Georgia defense lost a lot of pros. They also have a couple injuries now.

Yes, they got the beat up on Oregon in the opener. Transfer quarterback, new system opening games. Since then, they played no offenses. This Tennessee offense now when you add Cedric Tillman is one of the best receivers in the country, best big game receivers. Last year against this Georgia defense, which was elite, historic.

He had 10 catches for 200 yards. Also had eight catches for 160 against Alabama. They're adding him. He's now full go. Adding him, he's a first-round draft pick. They're adding him back to the offense. He got a couple snaps in, and he's going to start and play the whole game this week.

So, yeah, everyone loves it. I love it, too. I think there's too many points for Tennessee at Georgia. It should be a hell of a game. And for what it's worth, over the past 50 years, there's only been 10 matchups of 1-2 where the spread is over a touchdown. Underdog, 8 and 2 against the spread, 1, 6 of the 10 as a underdog of 7 plus. Small sample size, but interesting tidbit.

And should be a really exciting game because Georgia, Georgia's certainly going to put up its points as well. I might go with the little Tennessee LSU when the points parlay. Kind of like that. Yeah, my nightmares. James makes me a little nervous again, but it is it, it is in Baton Rouge at night. Yeah, he's playing a lot. He's playing a lot better.

The competition hasn't been great, so that's the question. My nightmare is I have a 14 to 1 ticket on Tennessee to win the division. and if they win this game they're going to win the division if they lose this game there's a chance that they could win the national title and lose their division and I will be pulling my hair out if that happens so you got a night you got a lot riding on this weekend yeah rocky top rocky top is what it all comes down to baby yeah you got it you beat bama now you get Georgia let's roll yeah let's do it enjoy it hopefully you have some

a few titos and red bulls while you're watching that bad boy and um Enjoy the weekend. Yeah, Breeders Cut weekend and Lexington. It'll be fun. Oh. Good luck to you as well. Rocky Top. Rocky Top, baby.

Later. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with they're between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

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