The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Is the Patriot Way dead, Harbaugh Brothers take over the NFL, Jared Goff is being forgotten about, Fugazi Friday

Episode Date: January 26, 2024

John dives into the news the Raheem Morris is slated to be the Falcons head coach over Bill Belichick. Are the Falcons making the right move by hiring Morris instead of Belichick if the idea is to win now, after getting passed up by Atlanta, will Belichick ever coach in the NFL again, and should he look to get into broadcasting. Also, when it comes to coaching, will the Harabaugh's take over the NFL, is the NFL media doing Jared Goff a disservice by not spending any time talking about him, and the return of Fugazi Friday. Later, John is joined by Stuckey from The Action Network to discuss the Conference Championship games and give you the best bets for the weekend. 5:47 - Is the Patriot Way dead 19:19 - Will the Harbaugh's run the NFL 27:02 - No one talks about Goff 34:09 - Fugazi Friday 45:10 - Championship Round Best Bets w/Stuckey 47:51 - NFC Championship Game 1:06:36 - AFC Championship Game Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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21 plus, age varies by jurisdiction, void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. See dkng.com slash football for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms, and responsible gaming resources. What is going on, everybody, John Middlecough? Three and out podcast. How are we doing, my people? It is Thursday afternoon.

Here's the plan. We will dive into the Patriot Way might have died today because Belichick did not get the Atlanta Falcons job. Some thoughts on the Harbaugh brothers. Is Jared Goff kind of flying under the radar right now? All we do is talk about the other three quarterbacks, but former number one overall pick is the Lions in the NFC championship game. And Fugazi Friday.

I forgot about Fugazi Friday last week. I will try to keep. it rolling moving forward i will not forget it again so fugazi friday and stucky joins us as well to talk the two games gambling on the props uh who he likes in the points spread it's a hard week right obviously my home's getting four points niner's big favors at home favorites at home uh as they were last week and obviously didn't cover so it's football so we we got to gamble got to have some money on some props. I'm a big prop guy now.

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I got a lot of mailbag questions, so I'm going to unload some of those for the people. And let's rock and roll. But first, I got to tell you about my friends. I saw that the ticket for the 49er Lions game has a chance to be the most expensive championship ticket in the history of the league. Last year, it was for this round, not counting the Super Bowl. Last year it was Philly, which I think was like $18,700. This has a chance to be well over $2,000. and if you want to buy tickets to some of these events,

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So game time promo code John Enjoy yourself and save a little money Is the Patriot way dead Think about that Is the Patriot way dead It's been out there I would say for a little while is the Patriot way dead. Today it feels like unofficially kind of died.

You know, the Atlanta Falcons hired Rahim Morris, who listen, is a very deserving candidate. Is someone who should be interviewing everywhere. A high-level guy has the experience a long, long time ago as a younger coach, clearly not only as matured as a person, but is a really, really good coach. and someone who was of high interest to a lot of people. So it's not crazy, you know, in a vacuum or by itself

that Rahim Morris got a head coaching job. But that the Atlanta Falcons chose him over Bill Belichick, I would say it was pretty shocking. I was stunned. Though it had kind of play, I would say the longer this has went, you went, I wonder if there are people in that building that don't want Bill Belichick, which is pretty clear. Because if you're Rich McKay, who I've said for a while,

I don't know him, but he has this role where it's the best job in sports. Florio wrote about it today. It's an incredible gig. When you win, you get to celebrate. Like you're a big part of football. And when you lose, you're up there with the owner

pointing the finger at the idiot coaches. It's like you get no responsibility. You get to be the president, but you're not just dealing with the business. Ultimately, like you, the football people answer to you. Yet when the football situation wins 21 games in three years,

like, not my fault. it's the coach doesn't know what he's doing I know what I'm doing I'm sitting here with the owner that guy moron get him out of there and of course he didn't want Bill Belichick because you think Bill Belichick is going to answer to anyone but the owner

and listen you could make the counter argument is 2004 he's 72 years old like if you're an owner if you're anyone working in the organization don't you want a guy that you go well if all goes right this guy's going to be our next head coach

for a decade, 15 years. Hopefully he's here for a long time. Hopefully he's our Sean McVey, where he's coming from, our Mike Tomlin, our John Harbaugh, or Kyle Shanahan, he's going to be our guy.

But Arthur Blank is 81 years old. So it's like, listen, I'm rooting for his health. I watched the press conference when they fired Arthur Smith. Cognitive leave feels pretty sharp. Honestly, he just felt like he was closer to 70 than 81 when you hear him talk.

But like, is he really worried about the next 10 years or is he trying to win now and be relevant now? and clearly and I'm not saying ultimately he's the decision maker didn't go with Bill Belichick

and the difference of Bill and some of these other guys like you're not hiring Bill and expecting general managers to work with him like ultimately you do kind of have to hand the keys to Bill Belichick that's what the charges just did Jim Harbaugh is in full control

Seattle Seahawks did it with their GM John Snyder in full control. The Titans. They did it with their GM. In full control. Right. So someone has to be in control. And Belichick at this age is not really going to be like, yeah, I'll answer like seven guys, especially Rich McKay who reports are all out there that he doesn't like, which I don't totally blame him because he despises people like that. Like, what is he actually doing? Like, I'm fine with anyone in the president role doing the business side. But when you intermix,

and you control football, yet you bear no responsibility, it is kind of weird. But it is, I think, fair to assume that Belichick's coaching career is in major trouble, right? If he didn't get a job this year, is he more likely to get a job next year when he's 73 years old? And a couple years go by, it might be all she wrote, which to me seems pretty crazy. I understand, you know, these last couple of years haven't gone. perfectly. He is the second most winning his coach in the history of the league. He, as an assistant coach, and obviously as a head coach,

has won eight Super Bowl's. He's been to, whatever, 11 of them, because he lost three when he was with the New England Patriots. I think it is a little nuts to hire Rahim Morris over Bill Belichick when you're an 81-year-old owner. I think that's a mistake. I would have hired Bill Belichick. Could it be a short-term

thing, of course. But this team, it's not like they're really, they've won seven games the last three years. This notion that they have a lot of talent on offense, maybe. Like Kyle Pitts was supposed to be the next Tony Gonzalez. Hasn't quite look like that. Bejan Robinson, like, I'm sorry, like, he's a good, talented player, but there are a lot talented running backs. I mean, they're just, Isaiah Pacheco went in the seventh round.

He's fucking running over guys left and right in massive games. So I think the Falcons overvalue their talent a little bit, but culturally, like, I just don't buy it. Now, Rahim Morris, been with Sean McVeigh for a while. I view him, and I would imagine they do too, as like a positive culture guy. I've listened to podcast with him, he's an impressive guy. But to not hire Belichick, to me, feels like a mistake. I get the other guys, the quote-unquote Patriot way, wouldn't touch Josh McDaniels and my head coach.

Patricia, no chance. Even Brian Flores. He can't get along with offensive coaches and a quarterback. kind of a problem in the modern day NFL. But Bill, like, I'm pretty sure his resume speaks for itself, but ultimately Atlanta, and I think it's pretty clear the powers that be there close to Arthur Smith wanted no part of Bill,

which I understand. If I was them, if I put myself in Rich McKay's shoes, in Terry Fontenow shoes, the general manager, I wouldn't want to hire Bill Belichick either. But when you don't win and you continue to do what you do, I can't imagine many people like myself are going to feel bad for you. It's one thing if you don't win

and you made the right choice. It's another thing. Like, to me, Seattle. I was texting with a couple people today around the league. It was like, am I crazy? If I'm John Snyder and I had to choose between, if I'm going to hire a defensive coach,

because Ben Johnson, all signs point to him going to Washington. And it's Dan Quinn or Mike Vrable. I'm sorry, I'm going with Mike Vrable. I wouldn't even have to think twice. But if they end up hiring Dan Quinn, it's like, I kind of want to hire my buddy. who is a lot like Pete, positive energy, keep it rolling. If you're going to hire a defensive coach,

hire the right defensive coach. Hell, I would hire Mike McDonald, the defensive coordinator for John Harbaugh, over Dan Quinn. But at least as I'm recording this right now, signs do point to Dan Quinn, you know, more than likely being their next head coach. So these coaching cycles in general are a complete coin flip, unless you hire, you know, Andy Reid,

which kind of guarantees you to win, or a Jim Harbaugh, which we'll get into in a second. But I would say that was pretty eye-opening today. Now, the longer it went, it was pretty clear that Bill's spot as their choice was diminishing by the day. And ultimately it wasn't their choice. So now Bill Belichick will not be a head coach in the NFL. I do think there's something that he could do pretty well. I have a pretty good feel for this.

I view myself as the ultimate consumer. I consume a ton of podcasts, games, different broadcasts of sports. Like, I got a pretty good feel who's good and who's not in terms of an entertainment value as someone who makes their living watching television. And I said right away when NBC a couple years ago hired Drew Breeze, I'm like, this is not going to work. This is not going to work. And he was fired within a year. That has nothing to do against Drew Breeze as a player. Fantastic player.

If I was an NFL team, I'd want Drew Brie's. to be my offensive coordinator or like I'd hire him as my offensive coordinator or assistant GM right now. Like I think Drew brings a lot to the table football wise. But as a personality entertainment, never saw it. And clearly it didn't work and he was gonzo. Because part of the reason when NBC, you know, Collinsworth for whatever reason, will not do two games in a weekend, though Torrico will, maybe it's contractually.

Listen, you know, money talk, shit walks. I get it. If you're not going to pay me more, I'm not going to do more work. But the reason Jason Garrett is in that number two chair. is because Drew Brees flopped. I think a lot of people look at Bill Belichick and they say, no personality, boring, ultimate crumudgeon.

Well, as a head coach, 100%. Because the media serves no purpose for him, the majority of the time. And a lot of the time, when he's at the podium during the season, he's going into a game, right? So talking about the opponent, he's always very positive,

he's always very hesitant to anoint guys on his own team. He's been playing the same playbook now in that role for 20 plus years. But we've seen him when he's not the head coach twice in recent memory. And he was fantastic. The NFL did that top 100 players of all time

and Bill was on the set like with Eisen and Collinsworth. Right? And he was awesome. Because at his core, he does have a personality one and he's the ultimate football nerd. He, you know,

he's actually closer to Peyton Man I'm not Peyton probably got a little more juice to him, but like when Peyton's just nerding out on football, on ESPN 2 on Monday football, he's just entertaining. Why? Because he fucking loves football. And the other thing Belichick knows is the NFL like the back of his hand.

He's literally evaluated every player in the league and every coach in the league, offensive and special teams. There is not anyone associated with the NFL that he doesn't have a scouting report on. to me Thursday night football on Amazon I like Kirk Kierp Street he's a college guy

they have no chemistry him and Al do not work they're both good guys independent of each other Al's kind of over the hill but obviously Al's returning next year according to all reports I'd hire Belichick for a year

to me that is a no-brainer and I think the first reaction a lot of people on social media would be oh that's a terrible you're so boring watch Bill Belichick on just Google it or YouTube it on the top 100 players or his college game day

appearance during the Army Navy game when he was with Lee Corso. He's a completely different human being. He would be better than Herb Street immediately doing NFL games. To me, that's a no-brainer. Now, is Bill just going to retire?

He's 15 games away from being the second all-time, or excuse me, breaking the record as the all-time winning his coach. I can't imagine he just wants to tap out. But you get to a point like, listen, being too old is a thing. Not that I don't think he's still capable of coaching, but the way people view you.

Most people don't want to hire people that are 72, 73 years old and pay them $20 million a year. Look at the discourse around our elected officials. We all fucking laugh. How are all these 70 and 80 year olds enough? Who's voting for these old fogies?

Obviously, morons, but you don't, you want some youth. You want some young blood. It's why look at the people that have been hired over the last, five years. A lot of younger people doesn't guarantee it's going to work. A lot of them fail but that's what owners and GMs

are inclined to do. So he's going to have age working against him and I think the one way to kind of move that narrative is to go on television. And to me if I'm Amazon I would immediately fire Herb Street and put Belichick on there and you would give him

a platform when Thursday night football everyone is home because the game plan and the coaching staffs by the time they get to Thursday it's not some all-night grind. Every owner is also sitting at home watching that broadcast. So it's not just that it'd be us,

and it'd be entertaining, and it'd be cool. It would be a job interview for him to kind of show the lighter side. Because one thing he's going to have going against him, right? Because you can't hire him and then have some 45-year-old GM telling him what to do. It's going to be like,

show you're a little looser. Show you're not the biggest raging asshole that literally that's kind of the perception. Perception becomes reality. Because when you look at Belichette, like his resume, no one can sniff that. I mean, the dude that just got hired in Carolina has been an offensive coordinator for like two years, a year,

because Lefowitz was the offensive coordinator last year. Again, impressive guy, but look at his resume. A lot of time being a position coach. Chance of that working slim than none. And obviously, Belichick would want no part of the Carolina Panthers. And that's the thing. I think there's a chance that maybe Belichick wasn't that comfortable with some of the setups.

This might not be all on Atlanta, right? It could be Bill like, yeah, I'm not as interested as you think. but having a platform in changing the narrative, it works. Now, like I said, time's not on his side. So if he wanted to get back in, he'd need a, it'd have to be a big year. And he'd have to show some serious personality, which we have seen before. But to me, that is the move. That's the move.

If I'm Belichick and I desire to be a coach again, I got to be on TV. And I think if I'm Amazon, I'd want all of Belichick. I think that would be a home run fantastic. Now, there would be some growing pains, not like he's ever done it, but I think that to me makes a lot of sense. And honestly, don't be shocked if that ends up happening. I've been thinking of the last 24 hours since Jim Harbaugh got hired. Are the Harbaugh's about to run this league?

Because think about John. Win or lose Sunday. All signs point that both his coordinators are coming back. Obviously, you know, Munkin is not going to get a head coaching job. Mike McDonald, who I thought was arguably the best coordinator, offensive or defensive in the NFL this season, where's he getting the job? If Ben Johnson goes to Washington and Seattle hires Dan Quinn or Vrable,

feels like Dan Quinn, that's it. All the jobs are filled. There's no more open seats. The dance ends. Everyone has a chair. Table's full. So John Harbaugh obviously has this quarterback who has gotten dramatically better from when he's already won an MVP.

He's got this roster. A lot of guys under-conflare. track and both as coordinators are coming back. So the Ravens, at least again next year, are going to be awesome. And we've seen over and over and over, Jim Harbaugh comes for his opponents like a tank through a wall. So he's coming. Like, I don't know how good the Chargers are going to be.

It's impossible to know their roster sitting here late January. But I think it's fair to say they're going to be competitive. I'm not saying they're going to be in the AFC championship game, but I would be stunned at minimum if they're not like legit in the playoff mix late in December and honestly most people I bet when the dust settles are going to pick them as a playoff team like are the Harbaugh's about to seriously stranglehold this NFL because the Ravens are going to be awesome again next year if they bring both coordinators back the cohesion there schematically would be on another level and we know Jim's going to win with Justin Herbert how big I don't know but he's going to

win why because that's all he's ever done and I was also thinking like Like, how crazy is that? You don't think about Peyton and Eli, right? Peyton was an all-timer, and Eli had some moments, but he was, a lot of people argued a little overrated, kind of let you down in spots where you thought he should be better, but obviously you have two sons that are NFL quarterbacks, one's already in the Hall of Fame, and, you know, when the, I bet, Eli ends up there.

We've seen it at other positions, right? T.J. and J.J. Watt. J. J.J. is a Hall of Fame. TJ is definitely on the trajectory to be one. Nick and Joey Bosa, if they both stay healthy, bigger question when Nick, elite family.

How often do you have two kids that dominate their profession in the same industry? Right? And it's not, like there's no nepotism here. Right? Sometimes like, well, my dad ran a hedge fund. He gave one of the kids the one.

The other kid took like his $200 million dollar inheritance and ran another one. And now they're both worth $750 million. Like, you're like, yeah, kind of got a hedge fund. start. Jim literally had to play in the NFL and then he started coaching as a quality control guy for Al Davis. John was not an NFL player, had to start like an Indiana and worked his way up with Andy Reed and the Philadelphia Eagles. So both these two guys earned every

fucking thing they have. And now both of them are just complete ass kickers. And you know what? Like I'm a sucker for old school football. I never apologize for watching football for the violence. That's the era I grew up in. I watch football for big hits. I watch it for the physicality. Just playing in high school, one reason I sucked, I couldn't be fit. I wasn't big enough. I got shoved around. But it was, it was the, the violence of football was unlike any other sports, whether you play baseball, basketball, maybe hockey. I'm from California. Obviously hockey. But it's what makes it so special. And both these guys, one's a quarterback, the other is just a nobody player whose dad was a coach became, you could argue, two of the most physical football coaches

in the NFL. Two guys, when you watch their team play, you go, God, the other team better buckle their chin strap. The other team better not flinch, because they are fucking coming for your throat. And it's just been awesome to watch. Obviously, they're both, especially Jim, a little out there. But the way they coach football and the way their teams play are everything I love about the sport. You can watch your big 12 games that are 48 to 42 or even some of your NFL shootout games. I like watching games where every yard is contested where it's like it's really hard to get a first down. Even in this modern day NFL where you can't crush guys over the middle, right? I like watching two lines of scrimmages that are hard to move. And obviously John,

you know, has built that and been a part of that with the Ravens. Get ready, Charger fans, because that is clearly going to happen with the chargers. You don't even need to question, what are the Chargers going to look like? Here's what I would guess. Austin Echler will not be on the team next year. They will sign a physical back and they will draft another guy high. And their

philosophy will be to run it down your throat, play defense with a stark quarterback. And watch out. Because he's proven when he gets a good quarterback, that philosophical belief on how to play football works. Why do the Ravens work when Lamar plays well. Obviously he's a special

player, but because they can run the ball and they dominate on defense. This game isn't that complicated. Right? And I think a lot of guys in the NFL, like, it's hard to fake being a tough guy. Like, I'm not some tough guy. I can't just walk into a bar

somewhere in like, you know, in Scottsdale and just pick fights with people. I'm going to lose probably a lot of them. Most people truly aren't tough. It's like deep down in your soul. And when you know a tough guy, everyone knows it. We all have someone in the friend group, maybe a friend of a friend, maybe a dude that

wrestled in college, maybe an offensive lineman in college, or he's like, I would not mess with that guy. Because you don't have to fake it, right? Obviously, there are a lot of frauds when it comes to being a fake tough guy, and they get their ass kicked at different points in time in their life. The Harbaugh brothers are tough, and they don't even need to talk about it. Like, you just watch their team play, you watch how they can tuck themselves, like they're just cut from an old school cloth.

I'm just glad both of them have played such big roles in just football. Because as a fan, I like the way they coach. And I'm glad in a day and age when everything's offense, offense, spread it out, spread it out. Like old school coaches. Like let's fucking get into a heavyweight brawl here. Buckle up and see who's the toughest guy at the end of the game. Like that's ultimately what Jim turned Michigan in. And what happened?

And this is, Ryan Day is a good coach. But at Ryan Day's core, deep down, he's nowhere near as tough as Jim. And you can't fake that. Like, at the... Nick Sabin, deep down, it's just a tough SOB, man. His dad was a gas station owner in West Virginia. Like, you can't fake who you are as a coach. Even Andy Reid, who likes to throw the ball.

Andy Reid was a college offensive lineman. Why do you think historically he's really taken, like, put a lot into his offensive and defensive lines. Because that's who he is. He's a lineman who likes throwing bombs. He's got a little Al Davis to him. But I just think that these two brothers, man, helped change the sport in a positive way.

Back in the day when the game was, I would say, a little more enjoyable. I still love football, but I'm a sucker for some 90s and 2000s just war zone games. And those two provide that. A lot of talking to, points over the last really couple weeks in the NFL has been about the superstar

quarterbacks, right? Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and then Brock Purdy. It's just nonstop. And let's face it, they deserve it. Lamar Jackson's about to win his second MVP. He's got a chance to go to his first Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes just knocked off Josh Allen. If Patrick Mahomes win this game, like let's face it, if Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid win this game and Patrick is unreal and somehow just wills his team to a victory, I mean, we're basically talking about like Tom Brady, Michael Jordan, Tiger Woods. Like his resume would be at a point where it's like, what are we watching? How is this possible?

You know, Brock Purdy, there's just never been anything like him. A guy drafted at the end of the second round who immediately starts as a rookie because of injuries, right? I mean, that was part of it. Like even Tom, he didn't start until a second year and he was a six-round pick. This guy was the last pick in the seventh round. Like, Tom was crazy, pick 199. This guy was picked 262.

So it just makes it very polarizing. No one's talking about Jared Gaw. nobody. How about his career? Think how impressive what he's doing is. And I noticed this week, listening to Kyle Shanahan and Fred Warner talk about him, I saw Richard on his podcast,

some clip, I don't think it was actually on his volume podcast. I think he was talking with Kishon, or might have been on a clip on Undisputed or something, was like, listen, I've played Jared Gough as an opponent, and he used to wilt. And I do think he's tougher now. Now, I'm not saying he's Philip Rivers out there. Like if you hit him, interior pressure throws him off.

But to me, when you watch him play now, he feels better. He feels like he's playing the best football of his career. And he was the number one overall pick. This is a guy that has played in several playoff games before he even got to Detroit. This guy, now, controversial call, won an NFC championship game. And you watch him in Detroit, what he's done so far in these two games, right? They've had little margin for error. If he screws up against the Rams, they lose.

Last week, I know it was a 14-point game with like five minutes left. That thing was tight. Like, there were points in time. Like, wait, are the Lions really going to lose this? He hasn't thrown a pick. He's been almost 75% completion percentage. And we talk a lot about this last draft and how well they've drafted in general in Detroit.

It really is one of the more underrated personnel moves because obviously Stafford worked out so well for the Rams. He won them Super Bowl. It couldn't have gone much better. But Jared Gough has been a huge. huge reason for the lion's resurrection. I mean, he's thrown 59 touchdowns the last two years. 59.

And we talk so much about Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, and he was always kind of in that group, but people put him at the end. Like, are we sure he's not better than those guys? Especially Dak Prescott? Are we sure he's not better than Dak Prescott? Now, part of the reason that makes Jared Gough kind of unique is right now he makes $25 million a year.

You could argue for his production, for a guy not on a rookie contract, he's the best bargain in the NFL. Most guys like DAC and above are making $40 to $50 million. So his ability to play on a smaller contract because they just played out

what he signed with the Rams has allowed them to just build a pretty good team. And he's under contract for next year too. It does get a little complicated because there's not really a middle ground. Like would I extend him right now,

three years, $100 million guarantee every penny? 100%. Would he do that? You know, I don't mean, price is kind of the price like i'm going to pro bowls i'm you know a top fringe top 10 quarterback in the NFL usually that conversation at minimum starts at probably 150 million dollars guaranteed so it gets complicated moving forward but the last couple years it's hard to not really respect his journey any human being and i've been told this twice one time didn't have my contract renewed

the other time i was basically escorted out of the building when someone tells you tells you, and the first time, like Howie in the organization and Chip Kelly, like, I get it, like new administration, bringing in new people, whatever. Radio, like, I don't think you're good enough. You don't think I'm good enough? You don't think I'm good enough? No, it turns out the Raiders pushed me out, but regardless, when someone tells you that, wait, you're, you serious?

I don't care if you're the pettiest human being alive, like Belichick or Portnoy, or you're just kind of an even-keel, mild-mannered guy like Jared Goff. if you have some sort of competitive nature to your soul, that fucking pisses you off. And it's something Colin, I think, wrote in a book like a decade ago that holding a grudge is like chain smoking hate. And I would tend to agree with that. Like if you're thinking about the negative thoughts about someone

or someone that screwed you years ago, it's kind of pointless to carry along. But let's face it, we're all human beings. There are things that happen in your, your life negatively, professionally, that you never forget and that help drive you. And Sean McVeigh told this guy, you're not good enough. And I saw Andrew Whitworth told a story that Jared Goff demanded after he got traded, like, Sean, I want to meet with you.

I want you to tell me to my face what the problem was here. And Sean did and told him, and they kind of hashed it out. And I think stories have come out since that they are much more cordial than the way it ended. And listen, I'm not trying to evaluate. Jardt, he wasn't playing well. But I've said this forever. Young people, and I can only speak for young guys, professionally, whether you're playing in the NFL or whether you're a car salesman,

like it does help to have people older than you, people in leadership positions, bosses, partners that express belief in you. There's a confidence level that can sway with us all. So when you have someone who doesn't believe in you, it can, make you question yourself. And when you have someone who has the utmost belief, at least the way they express it,

the way through their actions, of I think you can do this. I want you to do this. We believe in you as a team, as a company, whatever. That's empowering. And that's the way to get the best out of people. And the Lions and Dan Campbell

have really done that with Jared Gough. And he's returned on the investment because he has been fantastic. And he was a big reason that this team, for the first time in, you know, three decades, I mean, I was, I'm almost 40 years old. I was like seven years old the last time that they played in this game. So just an incredible accomplishment, having Joe Montana and Barry Sanders be the, you know, the guys coming out for the coin toss.

It's going to be a really, really cool moment. Like the AFC championship game, Mahomes Lamar, shocked, stunned. Couldn't have seen that one coming, right? This one's like, the Lions, even though we thought I picked the Lions to win the division. But that they actually made it here, won multiple playoff games, which were not easy. Very, very impressive. And I just don't think we talk about Jared Goff enough. Okay, before we get out of here, I want to, I got to really hammer this home,

try to make this a weekly thing, Fugazi Friday. And I just try to pick some things that just feel like one giant Fugazi. Something's off. Something's wrong. Something just, this doesn't make sense. This is a borderline. scam. And I watched the press conference with Howie and Nick Siriani, who anytime you have such a devastating season, your firing coach is left and right, it's going to be awkward. And the questions

people are going to ask Nick Siriani are going to be difficult for him to answer. But, and I'm sure many of you saw that he got asked like, what do you do? But one thing he said, like, oh, that's an easy question to ask and what's he really going to say, like break down his day. But he kind of hammered home that we need because they fired Brian Johnson. It's always weird when you fire a coach and you're like, you know, I think the guy's a great coach. He's going to be awesome wherever he goes. Well, you clearly don't because he's not on your staff anymore and you want to replace him. Nothing is faker in pro sports because it's such a public job is when you fire a coach or a player, but mainly a coach. And then you go, he's a great

coach man he's going to be awesome you do not believe that you might really like the guy but you don't think he's good enough or you would not have fired him or maybe the owner just wanted him fired and you wanted to keep him which doesn't totally feel like like brian johnson had to go which is kind of crazy he's interviewing for other jobs but he said uh we got stale on offense and essentially we need someone else to bring kind of new views and i was thinking about that today like can you imagine at the end of the season? Like, let's say the Chiefs, lose by 20 to the Ravens. And offensively for their standards, they had a bad season.

And Andy Reid came out and said, we need new people around here. We need to get new ideas on offense. He would never say that. That's his baby. That's what he could. Imagine Kyle Shanahan or Sean McVeigh saying, like, our offense is a problem.

I need other people to come help me fix it. Listen, sometimes you need new coaches. But like, aren't you the obvious? offensive coach, aren't you an offensive guy? Shouldn't that be your ability? Imagine Bill Belichick back when he was a coach saying that like our defense sucks. We need to bring in new people to fix it. Well, aren't you the defensive genius? Isn't that your like side of the ball? Isn't that what you can directly impact? And can't. And this is my thing with with Siriani. Now they're hiring Vic Fangio who I heard Albert Breer say today like him and McDaniel weren't really getting along. He

wouldn't listen to anybody. You think he's going to listen to Siriani? Like, one thing with McDaniel, even if, you know, it's not a collaborative process or whatever, no one can dispute that McDaniel knows what he's doing on offense. He's the offensive coordinator or play caller. What, is this going to work? So this thing already feels kind of destined to be weird. Now, Vic, in a vacuum, is an excellent coach.

But I don't know, man. I think, I do think the question, like, what is Siriani doing? Is he just running one of the great Fugazzi? of all time, being a head coach and not doing anything. And it's, listen, when everything's going well, any company, when you're making money, everyone's like, woohoo, woohoo, yeah. It was like during 2021, everyone's working from home, all these companies are ripping their stock. Then the market turns.

They're like, what are all these people doing? I remember I knew so many people in the Bay Area that worked for all these big tech companies that were making three to 500 grand a year. They did have to do shit. They were going to the fucking country club like four days a week. I'm like, God, you're just on salary, doing nothing? They're like, yeah, I'm an HR manager. I make $4.50.

We got a hiring freeze for a year. Like, what? This is crazy. He's like, I'm headed to the country club. Mamosas at 10 a.m. I'm like, it's Tuesday. But those people eventually got, you know, fat trimmed. And they lost their jobs.

Some of them did. Some of them kind of finagled their way. Most of us, like, got to produce, right? Salespeople can't do that. Like, if you don't produce, it's pretty clear. You're not working. But you're in one of these jobs, the ROI on your gig

is not necessarily tied to you. It seems to be like, I'm working, doing what? And that's kind of what Siriani feels like right now. There was a moment in the Suns game last night that a guy sitting in the second row,

the Suns were playing the Mavericks, that Luca, the star player for the maps, had thrown out. And this has kind of been a thing in the NBA, I would say the last several years of the Russell Westbrooks, LeBron's, throwing fans,

out of the game, who are sitting near the, I would say, in the first three rows. I don't know if you've ever, I haven't been to an NBA game in a while since last playoffs, the prices in these games are absurd. And when you're going to see top players, you sit front row, you're talking four figures. Usually where I come from, the consumer gets, they've got to really cross the line in any business to get the old heave-ho. and Luca, this guy said, you're out of shape, get your ass on a treadmill.

He got tossed for that. I truly believe this. The NBA is running one of the great Fugazis of all time. They have this fixed contract with television, right, based on five, six million people watching their regular season games from 2014. And the players are benefiting. Guys like Luca making $40, 50 million a year. Yet currently, right now, their ratings are being.

more than cut in half. So the television networks are taking a bloodbath. They're getting screwed. But the players are getting their money no matter what. And then Adam Silver, who to me objectively is one of the worst commissioners in the history of sports. In my opinion, he's the worst I've ever seen. Because currently any other CEO, if your main business, which is television, you lose half your consumers in a five, six year span, you would lose your job. And they're staring down a television contract where all these companies are cutting money and the only companies with money

is Big Tech. What is BigTap better at than anybody? Everything has to add up. This has to make sense. Part of the reason Netflix signs the WWE and RAW is you know guaranteed how many people are coming. Plus they're paying them $500 million.

The NBA is getting billions of dollars from all these networks. It just doesn't add up. And these players have no clue where their money comes from. They just think it comes from the sky. Well, it comes from TV, but the NBA, unlike football, because of 41 home dates, is very dependent on the gate. And no, I just can't understand.

I can't fathom running a business and treating your consumer like shit. I'm sorry, on the road, fans are allowed to talk some shit. There is, I guess, a line you can't cross. It's pretty clear when you know it. That is not one of them. And I think this all gets back to Adam Silver, who easily, in my opinion, is just, a running joke. And the NBA right now, I've said it for a while, I can

see this coming from a mile away. The Saudis and Piff, who have taken over golf, this is the next league to be taken over. Because they are staring down financial economic disaster. And they have a Fugazi going on right now. A ton of money for the players right now,

but it doesn't quite add up. You think Mark Cuban just sold because you need some extra money in his back pocket? Come on. He knows what's coming. The Bucks owner a couple years ago just sold because of that? No, these guys, they can see what's on the horizon. If I'm the Saudis, if I'm Yasser, and I'm the Piff, there is no league who's going to be more desperate for cash because their fixed costs are so high in the National Basketball Association. You watch,

there will be a story in the next six months a year. The Saudis are involved with the NBA. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashed. Others say it's unleashed. Leaching Human Potential. Either way, the podcast, Superhuman, documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'll say it. Yep, that's me. Clipper Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions,

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Okay, coming down the home stretch here, which is awesome because you get the AFC and NFC championships, but also bittersweet because there's only three games left. And unless you're a college basketball junkie, like my man Stucky, it can leave a hole in our gambling hearts. But March Madness isn't that far around the corner of the master. So we got other stuff to gamble on, but there's nothing quite like football. And we knew something weird would happen over the weekend.

I was firing off tweets like you, Stucky, because I had the Ravens minus nine and a half. And I'm like, this is insane. and then of course they kicked the shit out of him in the second half and it turns out the weird game was going to be the next game and the Niners who pulled a rabbit out of their ass but hey it's survive in advance and the two number one seats host

they did it a little differently on Saturday but a win's a win. Yeah it was uh and we'll talk about this when we talk about the San Francisco game like just with with him without Debo Samuel now you can't you'll see a lot of the stats like with him with like with them this They're 12 and 1. They've averaged like over 32 points per game. They scored at least 27 every game with them, except Baltimore.

And they're 1 and 4 without them. They've only averaged 19 points per game, never clips 24, scored 17 three times. And then you arguably should have lost last week. Now, granted, there's some noise in those numbers because Trent Williams is also out, who's obviously extremely important for some of those games. And then, you know, the 49ers' offensive line really relies on him. but he's super important. So once they lost him, you saw it just, they become easier to cover.

You know, they use him in the run game. He's just such a dynamic player after the catch, before the catch. So his status, you know, it was obviously losing him last week was big, but it looms large in this game because, you know, the 49ers in the past, they obviously haven't been the same explosive offense without him, but they've been able to overcome it with just a really good running game. You know, you have McCaffrey. But the Lions Runny is the strength of their team.

You have your full complement of weapons out there. They can't cover everyone. We saw that last week. I unfortunately had Godwin props. They decided to put a State Devere cop Godwin, and they were just throwing it to Evans every play, and they couldn't cover them. But if you don't have Devo out there,

it's like, all right, let's take away Ayuk. And then, you know, it's a lot easier to cover the 49ers receivers. So, yeah, his status and how healthy will be, if he plays is uber important to this game as is an injury on the line's

offensive line. Well, let's just start, I guess, with the NFC championship game then. One reason, like one prop, I hammered, I'm a big prop guy now one weekend. It's like, oh, this kind of fun. I took Debo's over rushing yards.

It was like almost five to one at 40 yards. I'm like, I don't think people quite realize once the playoff start, he'll become their number two, running back. Yeah. And it was clear some of the plays they were running in that game were runs to Debo and it

really threw Kyle off. And, you know, he had a weird game. There's no way around him. His quarterback could barely grip the ball and he kept throwing the ball instead of just hammering McCaffrey. But regardless, this game, you know, you've been saying this forever, how terrible the D.Bs are. The record, you know, the number speak for themselves.

Sutton, like, before we dive into the spread and just the overall picture, like brand and i yuk in this game even if debo let's say can't go how do they cover that guy yeah the only thing i'd worry about is because like last week i i had some godwin props that i lost so they just the lines just decided all right we're going to take a corner and then cheat the safety and we'll and we have the safety over top every play and um and then they just sat one-on-one with sutton and evans which obviously uh was a disaster but that becomes a lot easier to do. So I think...

You've got to pick the right guy. Yeah. I think though, even if Samuel plays, it actually might help Ayuk because you can't keep... You really can't keep the safety over top and they have no one who can cover him. So in an odd way, even though

Samuel being in there might actually help him. But yeah, Detroit doesn't have anyone who can cover him. Yeah, I mean, regardless of who's in, party should still be able to throw all over the secondary. No rain right now. Yeah, no rain.

Two quarterbacks who just don't want any weather. And the forecast looks clear. So, you know, I make the 49ers a little over seven-point favorites. But I, with, you know, Devo's not, you know, he's still a wide receiver, but running back. Like you said, he'll get like 10 to 15 percent of carries. And without him, like, it's just McCaffery. So he's important in many different ways. He's worth a non-zero amount to the spread.

Not many non-quarterbacks are, maybe like between a half at a point. So without knowing if he's going to be out there, I don't have any bet on the side. I will say that what where I think that this, the key, I think the key to this game, is I think the four-niners regardless will move the ball. I'll be able to do a lot easier with Debo in there. But they're going to be able to move the ball in this Detroit defense. I think the key to the game is can So Ken Gibbs get going in the run games

You have to really run outside against San Francisco Outside zone, you can't really run up the middle against them Can he get going because if he can't So if he can, you obviously You know, make it more manageable third downs But if he can't get going Because he's the kind of back that you know You kind of need to have some success running against San Francisco

if he can't, and you have Gough in known passing situations, and you know, you're not going to have weather here, but Gough, you can get him under pressure, can just turn into a complete, especially up the middle, can turn into a complete pumpkin for long stretches and never come out of it. And they take him two quarters to come out of it. And the 49ers now have their full arsenal along the defensive line.

Didn't get sacks last week. They were playing a mobile Jordan Love, but they got pressure without blitzing on 40, I think 42. percent of Love's dropbacks. He did a good job of evading pressure at times. But if you look at the numbers with everyone, with Armstead, with Young, and they're all in the field,

sample size isn't huge, but their pressure rate almost doubles. Yeah, Hargrave. Pressure almost doubles. And with all them in, you can't really double anybody. So, and the lines don't have a blocking tight end now. So, like, I did Brock Wright got hurt?

You have a porter who you'd want out there, but you'd also want someone to chip on Vosa. So, like, you know, you have Zach Ertz. You don't like, you know, like, Earths one-on-one versus Nick Boza. Yeah, so like, I don't know what that's going to be interesting to see what they do with the Porta. But one of the biggest injuries of this weekend is Jonah Jackson, who's an unreal guard for the lines. He's hurt.

And last week, you know, in Ragnall's Center, who's one of the toughest dudes in the NFL, he'll play. But he has a hurt ankle, hurt knee. So he's not fully healthy. But last week, their backup guard was horrendous. Awasica came in. he allowed seven pressures on 28 pass blocking snaps. That is horrendous. In comparison, Jackson had 18 pass blocking snaps.

Didn't allow any. So if they're able to generate pressure up the middle specifically against golf, who's a statue and not mobile, then the lion's offense will fall apart. And that would happen on any known passing down. So if Gibbs can't get going, I think it could be tough sledding for the lion's offense that he can, you know, with play action, with the defensive linemen now more focused on stopping the run, there will be some opportunities,

lines have a lot of talent on the outside for them to move the ball, but I think that's the key. I did play, the only thing I played in this game from a prop perspective, I played more props in the Ravens Cheese game, I played it, you can find this at Draft King's Armstead over 0.25 sacks at plus 1. I just bet it's probably come down a little bit, but it's still probably plus one.

He looked good last week. Yeah, he's had it like three months off. But yeah, fresh. He would have hit this in five of ten games this year. And you only need a half sack to go over 0.25. Six of ten postseason games. He would have hit this. He has seven total sacks and seven playoff games.

And it's most likely the lines will be playing from behind. So it's a passing game script. They're going to be throwing more. And he just has a favorable matchup here with the backup guard, a Hertz center. And I think what's going to happen is, you don't have a blocking tight end is, you know, your defensive ends are going to be able to get around, force Goff up in the pocket. And that's what he just will just like fall into defenders, interior defensive lineman's hand. So I like Armstead to get over 0.25 sacks. I think he can have,

you know, one or two here. I think he had a game with two or three in the playoffs a couple years ago. So yeah, he looked good. He's fresh and he's a good match up here. And Goff can't get away. He's super cool. Can't get away at all. Like that. The one thing, you know, The 49ers run defense relative to what it's been in the past years, clearly has been a little off lately. Now, part of that was Armstead had missed a lot of time. Hargrave is not a run stuffer.

And their two linebackers, especially Fred, while have elite speed and great open field tacklers, can't get caught up on blockers. But if the center can't move as well, and they're playing backup guards, it's not like Penae Sewell and Decker can block everyone, right? So that's an area that, because in my mind, I was like, well, I think they'd be able to run on them a little bit,

but that's a big swing if you got backup offensive linemen. Now, the one thing is usually the way, I mean, you know the way the game's going to start. The Lions, to me, are taking the ball first if they get the coin toss, and the 49ers always defer. And you saw it last week with the Packers. Now they kicked a field goal, but they drove right down the field. Yeah. So it's a little deflating if you drive right down the field and get a field goal.

Like that was a huge reason why the 49ers won, right? I mean, a couple drives. they just, it was four point swings in the red zone. So to me, it's like if their run defense is better, their pass rush though has not been as dominant as it has been in years past. And part of that is like Chase Young is just kind of a guy. Yeah. But like you said, the interior, if he's healthy,

Armstead's a really good player and he's going up against a backup. And Hargrave is just really good. And Bosa just caught, even when he doesn't get sacks, he does cause pressure. So they have eaten Goff alive. Now, Goff. And Goff can't handle interior pressure because it's, You can't move. You're not going to be able to handle into your pressure.

And that's most of the year he's had, you know, the line's offensive line has been an overwhelming strength. And they're, you know, their interior with Ragnall and Jackson specifically have been so good. But, you know, now you have Ragnow hurt who's going to play. But then Jackson hurt. You factor in outdoor because I know you've been down on him outdoor like everybody all season long. But this is like he would, him and Purdy would have to neutralize each other.

Yeah. And there's no wind here. Yeah. You know, if there was rain, actually might help the Lions more because Purdy seems to just struggle with gripping. Goff's not a great rank quarterback either. Yeah, this, I don't, if the Lions are playing like a, because the Lions have an explosive offense and a bad D.

So, you know, if they were playing a team that was just like, you know, we're kind of, but this game turns into a grinder, but the 49ers have a explosive offense too. Like, I don't, I think it's nothing here. The only thing that would matter is if there was, There was wind. If you got up to like 15 to 20 mile an hour winds, golf just can't deal with it.

But it looks like it's going to be like five, seven, meaningless. Anything under 10 is meaningless. So no, I don't put any stock into them playing outdoors here. There's just a natural overreaction, right? I mean, the Lions have won two games, which, I mean, the first round they easily could have lost against the Rams. Now, granted the Rams are good.

They probably could be playing in this week and no one would have batted an eye. And last week against Tampa was a lot harder. I saw you tweeted about mid-game. game like this is kind of a slug fest here kind of boring i mean it felt much more like a sunday 10 a m kickoff that not everyone's paying attention to but it was the second round of the playoffs where 35 million people were watching and they just were constantly getting shredded so it's not like they're while they're winning i think people overvalue because they've won two games the niners look like shit and everyone thinks and i kind of guilty of this too like oh this is this going to be a close game but is this a

situation every time you short the niners they come back just fucking guns blazing all of a sudden you look up and it's 17 to 3 in the second quarter yeah I mean that's the NFL like the spot here by like from a spread perspective especially this open at 6 and a half but you know you're talking about buying low on the 49ers

who closed 10 and a half like I bet the minus 9 they closed minus 10 and a half against the uh yeah against the Packers now you're getting them at 7 so you're getting you're getting the 49ers cheap here I would normally play them if I just knew more about Debo the thing that does make it tough

though is and this can work both ways but is Campbell's the variance that Campbell's going to introduce into the game. So, and you would assume that as

touchdown underdogs that he's going to be even more aggressive if that's even possible. So he's going to go for, you know, a bunch of fourth downs. And,

you know, you get them, then all of a sudden that, you know, that just swings, at the swings that could be

experience in this game or massive. Like, yeah, there would be the difference of a punt. in a touchdown. Yeah.

And then the 49, you know, the Lions defense isn't any good. So the 49ers, like, then, you know, take over at midfield. They're probably going to score. You're talking, like, you know, 10, 14 point swings in the game. So I might look to bet it live. I might look to bet the 49ers live, or they get behind.

And, you know, if the Lions, like, come out first drive, it's like fourth and six at the 50. Like, they're probably, they're going to go for it. Where a lot of coaches would pun it, especially in a conference championship game. So we'll see. I'm curious to see if Campbell maintains his aggressiveness. It's who he is.

He's always done it, but light to the brightest now. This is the big stage. So some coaches will just turtle a little more. But based on everything that I've seen, there's going to be some enormous variance that Campbell introduces into the game with his fourth down decisions. Fourth and goal at the four, he's probably going to go for it,

whereas Shanahan might kick the field goal. So again, enormous swings in this game. So if I had a bet it, I would bet the Niners at minus seven. But I'm probably going to look for something live. And the reason I'm not betting it is just because, you know, Samuel's worth like a half point to a point. Lines are pretty tight this time of the year. But, yeah, his injury definitely looms large in many different areas.

Well, the other thing is, you know, both quarterback, I mean, Pertie only played one game. He's played two. They haven't thrown a pick yet. Obviously, Purdy easily could have thrown a pick six to open up the game last week. You know, Goff definitely is liable to make a mistake. That's something that, like, I don't feel great. You know, Purdy's had some moments this year where if you can kind of rattle him early,

he gets kind of thrown off. And it's the opposite. When he gets momentum early, he looks like fucking Drew Buries or something. You know, so it's kind of how he starts kind of carries over throughout the game. Now, as we saw last week, Purdy doesn't fold. You know, that was something I think, I saw Richard Sherman talked about Kyle talked about. I think

Jared Goff has definitely become more mentally tough now in his older age. He used to just quiver and fall apart. Now he still doesn't play well, but I do think he's a little mentally tougher where Purdy definitely has the edge there. Like he can make a mistake and then come back and just look normal again.

If the weather's not rolling. So they can overcome an interception. If you tell me Goff's throwing just off early, I think the Lions would be in major, major trouble. Yeah, especially if he's forced to throw, they're going to be able to get pressure. And the 49ers have better, much better ball hawks, guys at linebacker that are capable of making a play where, you know, Goff doesn't see a linebacker, a linebacker jumps a route, a safety jumps a route. The lines just don't have many dudes in the secondary or as many at linebackers.

So, yeah, I would think Goff, especially if he's under pressure, is. much more likely because to throw a pick purdy is much more mobile than them too you got to remember that so one you know one of the keys is for the lines is their secondary is bad and one of the only weaknesses of this san francisco offense is just parts of their offensive line so like can you know hutchinson generate you know a strip a strip sack and he forced purdy you know get his get his arm on a throw they're going to have to generate pressure here because there's just not many ways that they're going to get stops. Their run D's been really good by some metrics. It's been adjusted for opponents. It's been number one in the league. A lot of noise and that. I don't think they're the best run defense,

but that's definitely their strength. They're good. But the four guys are still able to run it, but they're not going to be able to just run it up and down the field like they can against some teams. So the lines will have, how much pressure can they get on the non-Trent Williams will be the key? but I think to your point,

golf is much more likely to make a key mistake or two in this game. Well, we focused on the DB, you know, the corners with them. Obviously, Kittle has had some big playoff moments. You know, C.J. Gardner Johnson, much more of a hitter than a cover guy. Branch more of a hitter than a cover guy.

Do you like, you know, Kiddle, I saw a two touchdown prop at like four or five to one. He's a guy that definitely, from a yardage standpoint, would have shocked you if he had a bigger game? Is that a matchup you like that? Yeah, I like Kittle at home, too. For whatever reason, Kittle at home just goes bananas. If you look at his performances at home, he seems to always go over his yard.

It's probably. So, yeah, I don't think that there's anyone on the lines that can cover him. Especially if DBO's out. If he'd be a target. That's who's going to get, you know, even more work over the middle of the field. The only thing I would be concerned about is if they are able to generate pressure early. And then you've got to use them more as a blocker. that would be my, you know, because I mean, people forget when they compare all the tight ends and, you know,

how good of a blocker, Kittle is. So that would be my only concern. But yeah, if Debo is out, I think it actually could hurt IUC, even though that's counterintuitive to, you know, when you're just thinking about it on the surface. But because they can just, they'll rotate a safety over to him and then they'll take their chances, you know, guarding Joanne Johnson's with single coverage. but Kittle would be the one I think that would benefit the most from if Debo is out. So yeah, if Debo's out, I would certainly look to target Kittle in the prop market. Obviously, if the Lions were to win this game, they would be an underdog to either AFC team. Is that a fair statement? Yeah, so they would get a bump for sure for beating the Niners on the road.

It's a lot, and we'll talk about this game next, obviously. The Ravens win, I mean, depending if they'd go off, the Chiefs, they'll get bumped again. The Chiefs win, they'll get bumped. But I think the Lions would get the biggest bump, so the biggest underdog. But they would be probably four and a half, five point underdogs to Baltimore and like a fuel goal underdog to the Chiefs. And then if the Niners win... Do we just forget about the Packer game if they win this game in controlling fashion?

Yeah. especially if especially because it's in a dome you know it's not a weather game yeah especially if there's no concerns about samuel either and for the super bowl i mean there's two more weeks um especially if he plays but yeah uh if the ravens look dominant again though i you know i i have to be favored yeah i think they're going to be like a one point favorite now um if the chiefs win to beat the ravens they're going to get a ton of credit for that they'll get more credit than the niners winning but people will forget about the packers game I think the Niners would be three-point favorites over the Chiefs.

You might get just a ton of people being like Mahomes the dog again, and we just went through this, and then it might go to like two and a half. But Niners would be like two and a half to three-point favorites, maybe one-point dog against the Ravens. Okay, I think I'm with you. I mean, I got burned by the Niners last week, but so my gut says that's crazy to do it,

but I'm going to short the overreaction and just go with the way that you talk about the NFL, which constantly works and take the Niners in this spot. A lot of respect for the Lions, though. You know, if they lose, they can fucking lose by 20. Incredible season. I mean, they haven't been here in 30-plus years. And, you know, they got a bright young squad.

The second, or I guess it's technically the first game, which I know you had a Bill's future. The Bill is at multiple times in that game. You're like, God, they're finally going to do it. And then obviously they don't do it. Is it, what was your takeaway from that? that game. More devastating loss by the Bills or more just we're watching fucking one of the great quarterback coach combos in the history of the league. Yeah, I mean, the, there's,

Mahomes had an amazing game. It was probably their best offensive game of the year. But I think a lot of it was the reason I didn't bet the bills was I was concerned about their, their injuries. And that ended up being the difference because they had, I mean, they signed A.J. Klein off the street. This guy was getting ready to go on vacation. And they signed him. And he, He played 50 snaps at linebacker. They were missing Bernard. Two other linebackers got hurt. They only had three linebackers.

I think four linebackers dressed for the game. Two of them got hurt. One of them was AJ Klein, who played the entire game. So the Chiefs had, I mean, the best quarterback on the planet, and they have a brilliant coach. They just said, we're going to go 12, a lot of 12, 13 personnel heavy and then just show it down your throat. And abuse your linebackers.

And, you know, Kelsey looked like his old. self. They just took advantage of Klein and their linebackers. And they just really just took advantage of that matchup throughout. And then, you know, the bills just didn't make the next play. You know, they had that almost touchdown in the end zone. Credit to Chris Jones, who got, who bumped down, made the play there. They, you know, Diggs dropped that long pass and they missed a fuel goal. So, yeah, I really thought game could have went either way. Mahomes was great. The game plan was great and the injuries and being on a short week just really hurt the bills they didn't have enough guys ready at linebacker and the chiefs took full advantage so um i still think

that the people talking like short-term memory and you know people overreact what they see in the NFL is we have to remember that this chief's team that i don't their offense just isn't magically fixed they played a they played a dolphins team that had uh i mean no one left on that defensive line or at linebacker. You know, and there was Miami playing outdoors in like negative 10 degrees. And then they play a Bill's team on a short week that was missing linebackers. They had injuries in the secondary. And I mean, they were down to two linebackers at one point in the game.

So this Chiefs Office, you know, remember all year. How many weapons did they lose throughout the game? When we guys getting K-O jogging off the field? Yeah, it happened nonstop. Yeah, and that's what happens on a short. week too but uh it also you get to remember Gabe Davis was out and the chief's defense which so I I like the under especially I think it's gonna you can get you can get I think you can get 45 somewhere but I think it'll eventually go to 45 but I'd still like it a 44 and a half I actually like

the under in this game I know it's scary shit you're like Lamar jackson and Patrick moams but this chief's defense they have you know sneed at one corner who's been an absolute lockdown corner all year and number one receivers have done nothing against him I mean It's the chiefs are number one in the NFL against number one receivers. They have a really good slot corner in McDuffie. Their second corner is their weak spot, and that's where you really miss Gabe Davis. Now, Gabe Davis is just like hit or miss, but they, and Gayd Davis is a good run blocker. They didn't have that guy who was going off against Kansas City in the past to take advantage.

Didn't he have four touchdowns in the game? Yeah. In that division around throw, so not having him ended up being huge because Sneed took away Diggs. A prop that I like in this Ravens game is flowers under four and a half catches. So, you know, you have Mark Andrews is going to be back. Target chair is going to go down. You're going to have Sneed on Flowers. He's very aggressive and can body him.

He also gets a ton of penalties, which would, like, he could have a big PI, which would take away a catch, would give you yards. But Sneed is really good, one of those underrated corners in the league. So, and then you're going to have a slot on probably Aguilar. So you're going to need Bateman or. Odell Beckham had a big game, but the Ravens can run on the Chiefs. And that's the Chief's weakness. It's number two receivers, and they can't defend the run.

And they can't defend the power run specifically. I think big Gus Edwards game, like Gus Edwards overyards, Gus Edwards, you know, if you're doing like making a parlay or something anytime touchdown, shotgun runs. Chiefs, one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Power runs, one of the worst defense in the NFL. And that's where Edwards thrives. but I you know

so I think that if you just look at this this chief's whole body of work I mean this is a team that lost to they would go weeks without scoring in the second half their offenses is extremely flawed you still have Mahomes that's the trump card you have Mahomes and

but and you have Andy Reid and like this is the it's like that 98 Bulls team with Scotty Pippen his backs fucked up Dennis Rodman's wasted you know but it's like well they got Phil Jackson and Michael Jordan. Yeah.

And one of my favorite things about these, the last three games is usually have good coaches and you can win a game on scheme. And it would be a wrinkle. You might see someone, a coach that plays their cards that they've been holding. Or they come up with, they identify a weakness and they exploit it. And you can change a game. Belichick did it against you guys for years, right? In playoff games against the Ravens.

You saw the double pass and all that crap. Also, how they, you go look at the Rams, the Rams Patriots Super Bowl when the Patriots came up with the defensive game plan that just the Rams had no answer for with all the defensive linemen. So there's always that. And then you stole Mahomes. Kelsey can pass, right? Yeah. Got recruited to, you know, something, a wrinkle like a quick screen to Kelsey where he throws back the other side, you know, they're going to need that. Yeah, you're going to need something.

You're going to need a something. You're going to even at home's not to make a mistake, and he's going for an NFL record six straight playoff games without an interception, minimum 20 past attempts. Never been done before. But this offense, your tackles have been bad all year. Your wide receivers are limited. Kelsey isn't the same explosive receiver. And now you're going to be without your all pro guard. And that's a nightmare against this Ravens defense.

I shouldn't say you're going to be. It's almost presumed that they will be without him or he's going to be compromised. Do you tear his peck? Yeah, Joe Tuny. It's bad. So like, whoever plays with that. Yeah.

I mean, it's going to take some kind of special shoot them up, but you still wouldn't be as strong. But that not only is your offensive line now weaker, especially because your tackles have been bad and they get penalized. You're playing in a hostile environment. It's going to be loud. And you've had offensive line continuity all year. And now you've got to play without that continuity

against a defense that'll stunt and bring, they will block. So the Ravens get pressure in amazing ways. they will like, they'll have it, like, Matabuke who's going to get paid. He'll,

he'll, like, blitz an offensive lineman, uh, bull rush him. And they'll have a, they'll have another defensive lineman come and just take out the offensive linemen and free up the rusher and confuse the whole offensive line.

It's pretty wild what they do. But this raven's defense has, they're almost perfectly built to stop the cheats. They can get pressure. They don't have to blitz. They can get pressure. pressure without blitzing. They'll sim, they confuse every quarterback they play.

McDonald's game plans every week are amazing. So I can't wait to watch that chess match. But they're so strong of the middle of the field. And they can cover tight ends. They don't ask their corners to do much, but the chief receivers aren't anything special. You're going to get Marlon Humphrey back, just another physical guy in the run game. You have Kyle Hamilton who you can do a million different things with you. You've got Humphrey or Hamilton cover Kelsey.

You also have elite linebackers. safeties for days. The Raids were built to stop the middle of the field. That's where the Chiefs have to attack now because they don't have elite wide receivers. And they don't have the blitz to get pressure. And they should be able to get pressure up the middle, which is kind of Mahomes' kryptonites,

any quarterback's kryptonite. So Mahomes is going to have to make, which he can do. But we saw limited, it's still Mahomes all year. We saw them, you know, lose a game to the Raiders at home when O'Connell went 0 of 10 over the final three quarters was they couldn't move the ball against the Raiders. So this all, and they, you know, they benefited last week from extremely injured defenses.

it's hard for me to see this Chiefs offense having much success. It's also hard. I don't think the Ravens are going to roll up and down the field. The Chiefs don't play a lot of zone, which you can't do against the Ravens. Spacknobo is going to have some crazy Blitz scheme here to bring pressure. You got to bring pressure and blitz Lamar. I'm curious to see how he's going to handle the spy part of it. Can't spy Lamar fully.

You've got to spy then Blitz. And they have good corners on the outside. Now the Ravens are going to come out here, run, and they can run on the cheese. But I don't think they're going to move the ball up and down the field. I just think, though, if we look back at the body of work, so I think it'll be like a lower scoring game. And these are the two top scoring defenses in the league. Ravens lot of 16 and a half points per game. Chiefs right over 17.

But I just don't think that we can discount what the Ravens have done this year. And, I mean, they've played, they played 10 playoff teams. They beat them by a combined 170 points. They went eight and two in those games. all 10 teams they played at home finished with a winning record. The last seven teams that they played at home, including the playoffs, they beat by an average score of 38 to 17. This team has just dominated every good team all year.

You talk about that Texan team didn't cross the 27-yard line. They just destroyed one of the other top defenses in the league the week before. The Niners, I just mentioned that earlier. They scored 30 on everyone with a healthy debo. they had 10 before Sam Darnold came in at the end. So this defense has shut down everyone, everyone, every type of offense. And this chief's offense wasn't an elite offense this year. So good.

So top 10 offense still have Mahomes. But it's flawed. And now the Ravens are going to be healthier. Chiefs dealing with an injury at guard. So it's hard for me to see this Chief's team, you know, doing much. They got to keep it close and then let Mahomes have magic at the end. Because the Chiefs versus the playoff teams, even if you include the last two against the bills of the Dolphins.

They went three and four this year and they won by a combined 13 points. So, you know, Ravens have better. Isn't there defensive stats a little skewed too because they get two games against A. McConnell, they get two games. Their last game against the Chargers, Cooper Rush was in. They played the Broncos and Russell Wilson. So it's, I would bet if we dove in, they're solid. Like, I know Spags, like they're a big primetime defense.

But they are relative to the Ravens. I think there's a gap between the two for sure, kind of what you're saying. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, the Chief's defense is very good. It's much improved. But they benefit from an easy schedule. I mean, they had a bottom 10 schedule. Ravens defense, number one, across the board, had a top five schedule.

They played 10 playoff teams. They played in a division, the best division in the NFL that every team finished above 500 for the first time in 60 years. But they actually match up pretty well just schematically with the Ravens. And they have a couple good corners. The tight end thing's big, because they got a safety that's 6'3, that can cover a tight end, the two linebackers. Yeah.

But, yeah, the Ravens are also going to get Mark Andrews back here, presumably, which is just another weapon. But the biggest mismatch in this game is Ravens, again, much harder schedule. They averaged 28 points per game. Chiefs only averaged a little over 20. I mean, the Chiefs didn't get the 21 10 times this year. So the Ravens averaged over a touchdown more against a much tougher schedule, and they should be able to move the ball just more consistently,

mainly on the ground. Like that's the Chief's biggest weakness. There's no reason why the Ravens aren't able to run the ball on Kansas City. And this Ravens team has just answered the call all year. Now, again, it's, and if you go by DBOA metric that adjusts for opponent to measure how strong teams are, weighted DVOA looks at more recent games, puts more weight into recent games, Ravens are the hottest team headed into this round. since the metric started in 1980, the 11 of the other top 13 teams all made to Super Bowl.

The two that didn't were the bills against the Chiefs a couple years ago in that thriller. So Mahomes killed one of them. And Harbaugh and the Ravens killed the other in 2012 against the Patriots in New England against Brady when they went on to beat the Niners in the Super Bowl. But this is, I mean, historically speaking, one of the most dominant seasons. in NFL history, you're talking they played 10 playoff teams. All 10 teams they played at home. Look at all the playoff teams they played. They blew them all out.

So I don't think we can discount that. Now, if you wanted to take Mahomes as a dog over three, I can't argue with you. Mahomes and Lamar Jackson as underdogs have been remarkable bets. So I'm not laying three and a half of the Ravens. I played some money line when the line first opened. down to three, I would like the Ravens. But I played some under. I played some Gus Edwards props. I played flowers under catches. But I just think, and by the way, the Ravens play slow,

too, which helps the under. But I just think Ravens are healthier. They've been way more dominant all year. They're at home. They have an extra day and a half to prepare for this. At the end of the day, they have a better offense, a better defense, better special teams, and great coaches, just like the Chiefs, who have schemed up brilliant game plans all year. And the Ravens rested week 18. They probably spent about three weeks preparing for the Chiefs and or bills for this game.

Part of that time. And they had a week, they had a buy. So they've had... And look, they played Saturday. The Chiefs played late in the Sunday night. That stuff matters, too. Now they're going on the second straight road game. Chiefs aren't as healthy.

Raven's getting Andrews and Humphrey back. So I think all signs point to the Ravens here, but you just pull out, well, I have Mahomes. And I'll say, yeah, that's, yeah, fine. So, but I think the Chief's best path keeps this low scoring, try to run the ball. And then you just, at the end of the fourth quarter, you have Mahom's in a close game. And I. Last week, we loved the bills, or I mean, Josh Allen, all his props, the rushing props against the Chiefs. A little different, you know, with the Ravens.

but obviously Lamar is a dynamic runner. I mean, 70 yards over that, you get a plus 130. What about two touchdowns from Lamar? Now, like you said, if they hammer the physical run game is Gus Edwards more likely to get a red zone carry than him, right? But Josh Allen does or did against the Chiefs a lot, what Lamar does, those edge rushes and had a lot of success. Yep.

And Lamar is, it's just like most of the elite quarterbacks, it's the playoffs, scramble rate goes up. the design run rate goes up. So yeah, I don't hate... I'm going to take them two TDs plus $6.50. Don't hate it. Yeah, I mean, the Ravens are going to... I think that they're saying here, like,

what their game plan is going to be. They know they can run the ball. And I think that they're extremely confident in what their defensive game plan is going to be and then just in their defensive personnel against this Chiefs offense. So I think they're just going to hammer away, you know, take your periodic.

shots get a lead and then just keep running. And then that's when like all the running props would hit if they had a lead and they can just keep running on the Chiefs and controlling the ball. But yeah, I just think that they'll be able to run it. And I don't think that the Chiefs can consistently move the ball on this defense. No one has been able to do so, one or two games this year. The only weakness that I've seen. The Niners had yards.

They just turned it over. Yeah. No, that's true. I mean, but the Niners have a much better offense of the Chiefs, too. Yeah, but the Niners are viewed as the team just they're going to play in the Super Bowl. Yeah, yeah. The only thing you could, what the Niners can do is that one of the reasons the Niners can have success against the Ravens is that the only thing that I've seen that you can get to this Ravens defense is, they, when they're in nickel, they're so good because Hamilton is just, I mean, he's just a god out there. You can do so many things with him.

He can just, he wrecks every screen. He can pick off passes. He can cover anyone, defends the run. But if you can, so, and then you have him in the slot. Now you're going to pump free back. You have corners and safeties for days. And obviously your linebackers are good. Your defensive line is good.

But so if they can stay in nickel with Hamilton in the slot, and they are so hard to beat. And their numbers say that. EPA for play, they're number one, historically dominant defense in nickel. But if you can get them out of nickel and the way that you do that is you have to be able to run on them a lot and successfully and then throw on them because their corners aren't great

and they don't ask their corners to do much in this defense because they can get pressure. They don't ask them to guard in the flats. So if you can get them out of nickel by running on them and they got to... You have two running backs on the field, Niners have a use check. Yeah, but then, yeah, because you have to bring in

another linebacker and then you don't have Hamilton out there and then you throw on them. That's what the Rams did, for example. The Rams with Karen Williams, they were running on them, got them out of nickel a lot, and then you have Nakua, cup, and staffer. you're able to throw on them.

The Chiefs don't have an elite Pacheco runs really hard. They don't want to lead rushing attack. It's good. It's like league average statistically. But even if they do do that, I still think the Ravens can stay a nickel because they're not worried about

and even if the Chiefs are having success running and then Ravens have to bring in another linebacker, it's not like the Chiefs have these elite receivers that you can throw to and take advantage. So like that's what the Niners can do to the Ravens. obviously Purdy can't turn it over. But like with McCaffrey in their run game, you kind of make the Ravens go heavier

and then you start throwing on them. I just don't think the Chiefs can do that. So, but yeah, I think that's the difference. Like this Chief's offense all year, I'm not going to be swayed by just them taking advantage of the Bill's linebacker injuries and then playing a beat-up Dolphins team. The Chief's offense has struggled for long stretches all year. And the Ravens defense has been,

dominant. And I think at home, throwing an offensive line injury, you're struggling tackles, I think the Ravens will win this game. Niners Raven Super Bowl. Yep. It would be a big time one. Yeah, with right around a pick, and then you and I can argue in two weeks. Let's keep it rolling.

One of these games bound to get weird. It feels like the Chiefs could be a little, just because, like, you said, Patrick Mahomes, but I wouldn't discount the Niners who gave everyone a scare last week but maybe they just come back firing and maybe fucking Kyle has a good game plan this week. Yeah, Ray, I want the,

there was a chance the Ravens blow out the Chiefs and, like, I mean, they've done it to almost like, I don't know, eight, eight, nine playoff teams this year. But I'll be, if they're only up six in the fourth quarter, I'll be shitting my pants on Sunday. I'll tell you that. Got any early college basketball futures,

a team that may be a little flying off the radar to win the national championship? A team, let's see. There was a chalk this year. No, I mean, it's pretty wide open. There's like four or five pretty dominant teams, but a couple to make the final four flyers, Texas A&M, they have a guard and Wade Taylor

who can drag them to the final four. They can get them like, I don't know, 15, 16 to 1. and Buzz. Yeah, Buzz is great. And then St. John's, they host UPON next week, but yeah, Petino's changed their defense. They just got over a COVID bout.

They lost the Marquette by one, Creighton by one. They play Yukon at home. They win that game. They're going to go through their schedule to close the years really easy. But they have very senior-laden team. It was a bunch of new pieces put together,

and they're starting to get better. Petino changed their defense. They run like this complex, matchup zone and they changed to man mid possession and they just they started doing this like a month ago then they had to talk with COVID they had no coaches but he will be you know you have senior you have senior guard senior latent team it's only going to get better and you have petino who's a great tournament coach and they play this defense it's going to be just super hard to prepare for in the tournaments you're not in like conference play so I don't know if they can win at all but

you know final four like 18 they could make some noise yeah 18 to 1 20 to 1 So Texas A&M and St. John's are teams, I think, that can, worth a flyer to get to the final four. Like it. Okay, Stucky, talk to you. Not next week. In the next 10 days, and we'll hash out the Super Bowl and go prop heavy as well. Yeah, go Niners, go rins. The volume.

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