The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Jeff Saturday Outrage, Rodgers/McCarthy Revisited, Surprise MVP, Week 10 3 for the $$$

Episode Date: November 11, 2022

John briefly reacts to the Panthers/Falcons TNF snoozer, and explains why ultra successful billionaire owners like David Tepper get humbled in the NFL, and if the Falcons are close to turning it around. He also discusses the outrage over the Colts hiring former Peyton Manning center Jeff Saturday, if he has any chance to succeed, if Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers divorce should be judged differently given the current direction of the Cowboys and Packers, and John’s surprise MVP after 9 weeks. He also runs 3 Week 10 NFL games by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement on this week’s picks!  Subscribe NOW and follow Middlekauff and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content. It's always FanDuel for the best wagering action! #volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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you could hear it on Al's voice I mean Al's I've been in the bright lights well before I was even born obviously the you know the famous hockey game 1980 I was born 84 so Al Michaels has been a big deal for a long time and he clearly

has been the number one NFL guy even over Buck and even over Nance for decades now and I don't truly understand. I mean, I have some theories why he did Thursday night football. One, it's you get to trailblaze a little bit, right? You're

the first guy, full-time streamer. So even long after he's gone, the first guy that ever jumped at it was Al Michaels. Two, I'm sure they paid him a lot of money. Three, he has his weekends off. Because even when, you know, you're doing a Sunday night game, he's still

probably got to travel on Saturday. What can he do now? He can play golf on Saturday. He can play golf on Sunday. he's got a little bit of time to breathe but these games, especially the last several weeks, have been awful. And look, no hate to anyone that's a Panther fan or a Falcon fan.

For me personally, those aren't the brands that really move the needle for me. Like when I see you guys on TV, if that game was a Sunday, it would be a Sunday morning game for us on the West Coast. I'm sorry, like I'm not a big fantasy football guy so I can't totally relate

to like chiming into every single game because I got a player on that game, but I do gamble. So I know what it's like to pay attention to games that aren't regional or I'm not a fan of or whatever. That's the division. I'm sorry that I just dislike the most. And when I say dislike just is pretty meaningless to me. It just doesn't move me emotionally at all. But watching the game the night, it kind of hit me. like David Tepper, the owner of the Panthers, who is, I do think that the billions, the show billions on Showtime, or I guess HBO Showtime, was after specifically Steve Cohen, the guy that now owns the Mets. But I've read that parts of it were also David Tepper, who kind of like an Axelrod type figure on Wall Street. Obviously, one of the great traders of all time.

And recently, with how much it costs to buy a team, you have to have so much money, right? One of the stories that happened today, like, I'm sorry, I'm not going to spend much time reading when politicians are going after Dan Snyder. Just tell me when he sells the fucking team. Now, I get, if I was a Washington commander fan, I'd be interested in that story, but that was a story like, I'm not reading an article on this. Just tell me when they pop him, he goes to jail or he sells the team. Like, I'm done. We've seen a million stories on this guy. But whenever that team is sold, someone's going to buy it for $6 billion.

So the market of potential buyers are not me and you. It's a small list of people. We already know them. It's like Bezos, like seven other people. So when these guys buy the team at an astronomical value, you know, they are used to winning in life and winning at their business. Yet David Teper, and even Arthur Blank when he bought the team 20 plus years ago, I had to Google it. He bought it in 2001. he inherited Michael Vick.

So Michael Vick had been the number one pick the year before. So he got to inherit one of the most spectacular, awesome, fun players in like NFL history in his second year. That's pretty lucky. That's not normal. Most times you're inheriting a bad franchise, the Browns, the Panthers, kind of what he's inheriting with the Broncos. Now, in theory, like he's inheriting Russell Wilson, we'll see how that plays out.

But part of the business, when you buy these teams, if you're David Tepper, you hire a guy to be your head coach. And then you pray to God that he can draft you a quarterback. But most of these guys, great in Wall Street, you know, the Walton's, they own Walmart, Bezos, dominant businessman, they're great at their business. They know how to make money. Yet when you buy the football team, you really know nothing. Like, you might be a football fan, but you don't, like, no scheme.

You don't know really what makes a great coach. in your mind, you're like, I know what makes a great leader. I've hired a ton of managers. I've hired a ton of, you know, senior executives. It has nothing in common with the football coach. So you interview all these guys with great resumes that have been winning at various spots, either as a coordinator, as a former head coach,

or as a college head coach. And you kind of hope to get it right. Like David Teper hired Matt Ruhl, who was extremely successful at Temple and Baylor. But when you look back, it's like, he'd only worked one year in the NFL as an assistant offensive line coach. And then he couldn't, find a quarterback and it blew up in his face.

Because I'm watching his team the night. Loosely watching his team, that was a terrible game. But the Panthers have a lot of good players. But they have no quarterback. P.J. Walker is a fun little player. He's probably like a third string, maybe like a fringe, second string guy.

And when you don't have a quarterback, it doesn't matter how much talent you have. And when you don't have a coach, you're fucked. Like, you have no shot. So all these guys, buying all these teams are basically just praying to God that they get their coaching interview right and then that guy can find a quarterback. And let's face it, there's a huge element of luck with finding a quarterback

just a couple of years ago. And because the media hype and listen, I guess I don't consider myself media, but I'm part of the hype machine. And I fell victim to it. Like I liked the quarterback class a lot two years ago. Love Trevor Lawrence, love Justin Fields, was fascinated and intrigued by Trey Lance. Wasn't the biggest Sack Wilson guy, but didn't dispute his talent. And that quarterback class looks pretty terrible. You know, Trevor Lawrence has been very up and down for a guy that was held to such high regard.

I mean, he was the level of prospect of an Andrew Luck of like a Shaquille O'Neal, of a LeBron James, of a Bryce Harper. Like, no one can argue that. Anyone listening that follows this game pretty closely knows he was held in the highest of high regards. And it hasn't been terrible of recent memory, but it should have been a little bit better, a little quicker. Just in my opinion.

And Fields now looks like he's kind of coming on, but we'll see. I mean, Trey Lance has started four games as a shattered ankle. The Jets win only in spite of Zach Wilson and Mack Jones's average of the day as long. So the quarterback, the whole thing with quarterbacks is the unknown. Think about years before that. Baker Mayfield, complete bust.

Sam Donald, also a complete bust. Josh Rosen, he's like a practice squad guy. There are two quarterbacks in that draft and they turn out to be really good, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, but no one knows coming up in this draft. I love Bryce Young. He's tiny. I'm a big fan of Will Levis' talent, but who knows?

So it's just that CJ Stroud and then all the other guys in this class, nobody has any clue. Like most good GMs, I can find a good detackle. I can find a good safety. But if you don't find the quarterback, you got no shot. And now he's looking for a head coach again.

So even when they go on this head coaching search, which I would imagine they've already done due diligence, they've already contacted agents, they already have a short list. It's hard to interview people. Like you can't interview coordinators now. You probably could do some back channel interviewing college head coaches, but he's not going to hire a college head coach after he just did,

unless it was Jim Harbaugh. Maybe he'll wait to see what NFL coaches are fired, but again, it's going to be an educated guess, which you could argue most things in life are educated guesses. The difference is when Bezos was dealing with Amazon, when David Tepper was dealing with the stock market, when the Walton's were dealing with anything inside Walmart, they knew what they were doing. And they knew how to turn into a profit. When you own an NFL team, the element of luck, it's kind of like golf. You know, you hit it, even when you hit a good shot, it could easily fucking be land under sand.

It could easily land plugged in the rough. You know, just as easily it could bounce and be five feet from the green. And you watch him right now. And, you know, you just see, like, I think the Panthers have a good future, but they don't get a coach and they'll get a quarterback. Did Dave Deppar spend a lot of money to keep losing? And on the flip side, I think Arthur Smith is really good. I've watched their team pretty closely

probably for the last month I watched them kick the hell out of the 49ers I watched their game last week against the Chargers I thought they thoroughly outplayed them I give them credit I didn't love the Drake London draft pick he looks pretty damn good obviously Kyle Pitts is really good

they also don't have a quarterback I like Marcus Marriota the one time I went to Titans practice he was the starting quarterback the center at Fresno State who's now coaching at Auburn actually as an assistant coach was a GA at

Oregon when Marriota was there and after some press conferences stuff I went over and bullshaded with him took like 10 minutes we talked for a while every person I've ever known that has known Marcus Mariotta swears by the guy his character is a 10 out of 10 fantastic human being

he's a pretty average quarterback you know so the Falcons are a good example kind of like the Carolina Panthers they got some really good players and the difference is like the Panthers don't have a coach. I think the Falcons coach is pretty good. If Arthur Smith, the son of the dude that created, started FedEx, is a billionaire.

And I know people love to shit on like rich kids. If you're a rich, lazy kid, the last thing in a million years you would ever want to do is be an NFL football coach. Because like Google Arthur Smith's resume, he had to work his way up from position coach to position coach, finally became a coordinator. but he's not considered a guy of any head coach, right? Mike Vrable inherited him. Mike Vrable got hired at the job, and Arthur Smith was already there, and he made him the offensive coordinator

after LaFleur got the job at Green Bay. So he's not considered like a Shanahan guy, a Belichick guy, a Sean Payton guy. He's just Arthur Smith. Yet when I watch his teams, and I know he lost tonight, hell, I know he lost last week against the Chargers. I go, how is he so competitive?

You know why? He's really good. His team's tough, and they're fantastic in the run game. He does not have a quarterback. It might seem like he does because he has Marcus Marriota, a famous name. I'm pretty sure Marcus Marriota is like a $2 million quarterback. Marcus Marriota is a backup right now, a solid middle-of-the-road backup. But he's their full-time starter.

Now, maybe Desmond Ritter, the guy they drafted from Cincinnati, can become a starter, and maybe they get some gym. I don't know. You know, watching him at Cincinnati, I'll be honest, I thought he was pretty average. It's not like they loved him. They drafted him in the third round. But if they can't find a quarterback, like their ceiling is only so high. Because that division is pretty wide fucking open.

Tom Brady is, you know, going to be 57 years old. And let's face it, this is his last year on Tampa Bay. He's either going to retire or leave. the Saints are royally screwed. I mean, the coach is a major question mark, and they don't have a quarterback. And Carolina doesn't have a quarterback or a coach. So the one thing Atlanta has to feel comfortable about is

they like their coach, as they should. High-level guy, he has like an ethos. He has something that he can, he is like, when you watch his teams, it's very obvious what you're watching. And a lot of young coaches, I say it all the time. When you think of young offensive guys, they like to throw the ball. to me he reminds me of Kyle Shanahan.

He would, I don't care who his quarterback is. He'd want to run it 40 times a game. And he's good at it. He's a fantastic run schemer. And the better quarterback you get when that is kind of your ethos, you have a chance, especially if they can build up that defense. Now, I don't know much about his GM. You know, they're going to be drafted probably in like the top 13, 14.

If they hit on a pick, maybe they can be competitive. But I'll tell you this. I've watched Arthur Smith now probably fourth full game of the Atlanta Falcons, and that's a lot for me. I haven't done much watching of the Atlanta Falcons the last three or four years. Couldn't pay me to watch Matt Ryan

skip balls into people's hands. And I'm impressed. If I was a Falcon fan, I would be bullish on Arthur Smith, but we've got to figure out a way to get a quarterback because Marcus Marriota, like I said, fantastic human being,

average quarterback. And they know that. It's not like they think that he's some future starter for them. The problem, though, is for all these teams without a quarterback, like, what do you do? How do you find a guy? If you're not drafting one or two, where the lions, you know, where the Texans are probably going to be drafting, and let's face it, like, whether these guys are worthy or not, those

top quarterbacks are going to go there. Jimmy Garoppolo is a free agent? Like, where do you find the guy? And this is what I get back to when you buy the team. There's just a huge element of luck. I mean, look at the Cowboys. how'd they get the starting quarterback? They found him in the fourth round.

Look at Seattle. They're whatever, six and three. Where'd they find their court? Is Gino Smith. No one thought Gino Smith was going to be that good. Not a soul. How did the Rams get Matt Stafford? Well, just randomly the Lions decided to trade them

and they traded multiple firsts. Those type transactions don't happen that much. So, I don't know. You got to keep your fingers crossed and hope and pray because I would say this for the Falcons. Like I said, you do have a coach that you should feel somewhat confident in the future if you can just get them a guy that can throw the ball a little bit.

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21 and over in president of Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. Wager in designated offer market. Max bet $5.5. Restrictions apply. See full terms at sportsbook. Fanduel.com. Gambling problem?

Call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-4-2-Arizona, 1-88-7-8-8-8-8-8-9-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-1-7 for confidential help, Michigan. 1-8778 Hope N.Y or text Hope NY 467-369, New York, Tennessee, 888-97-89, Tennessee, 1-800-5-2-4700. Wyoming. Visit www.1-800 gambler.net, West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games,

and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.

Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, This platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators,

and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream,

this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. I think the Colts are the worst watch in the NFL. Cardinals stink. They're an entertaining debacle to watch.

The Colts are not. And once you can't keep firing assistant coach, like the head coach is done. And now I think, obviously the story breaks. They hired Jeff Saturday. And at first, I thought it was insane just like every other human being. Because the news broke on Adam Schefter's Twitter. And then like 30 minutes later, I'm hacked.

I have no access to follow me on Twitter. Crypto person has my account. So who knows if I'll ever get back. But that's neither here or no there. The reality of the situation is if I'm sitting in Jim Mersey's seat, I've watched this coaching staff be incredibly awful. Like, it's hard to be my. much worse than they've been. So what if I'm sitting in his seat going, I'm the boss, I sign the

checks, I don't want any of these guys to be the interim coach. So he hires Jeff Saturday, which yeah, jaw dropping. But we've seen a couple hires the last couple years be kind of crazy. I don't actually care. And I don't think most people necessarily do, but a lot of people, you know, the fake outrage, they could have named Bill Gates the head coach. They could have named Bobby Knight's son, the head coach. name Reggie Wayne the head coach. It doesn't matter. The team stinks. A putrid team that the whole place is going to get blown up, probably beside the general manager. That being said, once you hire him, like, I'm going to pay attention. I'm going to watch his press conference, not the one where he's sitting there with the owner, but the one where he's talking by himself and he got pretty defensive.

Now, being a head coach in the NFL is intense. Being at the highest level of any profession and essentially being the CEO is not easy. But there's a reason you get defensive. Hell, it happens to me, it happens to you. Usually because whatever someone's saying to you has some validity. And one thing that Jeff Saturday really hung his hat on in this press conference is he played with the best in the business. Played with Hall of Famers, played on teams.

He was a 14-year NFL linemen, playoffs 12 times. All that stuff is factual. There is a big gap, though, between, you know, being a great player and playing with great players, then coaching great players. Now, there are always some similarities and some fundamental philosophical beliefs in how you play. But coaching and playing are two completely different crafts. Belichick, Sean Payton, Andy Reid. Last time I checked, never played a down in the NFL. and you know what, it doesn't matter.

Because playing in the NFL does not equate to being a good coach in the NFL. Just like not playing in the NFL doesn't mean that you can't be a high level coach. Now, I looked and really thought about it. Like there are some guys that had long NFL careers and are head coaches. Mike Vrable is one, right? Was a longtime NFL starter. Was never like some all-time great player, but very, very good starting play.

player on very good teams. But Mike Vrable didn't transition directly to being a coach. He was basically an apprentice under Urban Meyer for a long period of time. First, he just went back to help out his buddy Luke Fickle at Ohio State when that program got blown up. Urban kept him, was there for a while, then went with Billy O'Brien, was a position coach for a long period of time and was a coordinator for one year. So saw it from a different angle.

Doug Peterson, who was a long. long time backup for guys like Brett Farrv, Dan Marino, Donovan McNabb. Well, what happened? I was there. I think his second year, he was a quality control guy for Andy Reed, worked his way up a quarterback coach,

then became an offensive coordinator. So he learned the craft from a different position. The reason you have confidence in anything you do is because of the time you put in to doing it. Your confidence is not created overnight. I saw,

it was the Marines birthday as I'm recording this. Happy birthday to all the Marine Corps out there. And listen, I have a ton of respect. Guys, I went to high school with Drew Coker, Brad Bittler, Michael Cleary, went to the Marines. We graduated high school in 2003. They went like 04 range. And that was when Iraq was going on.

So it wasn't just sitting at the base in Fort Bragg. I mean, it was the real deal. A ton of respect, the ultimate amount of respect for everyone in the Marine Corps out there, and especially people that I knew personally they were in it. But I saw this, the Marine Corps Instagram, basically this happy birthday kind of montage of highlights. And I, I remember watching this famous clip of, I think he was a general, I don't know his exact position, but he's in this like minute Instagram that the Marines put out. And he was asked like, what keeps you awake at night? And his response was, you know, pretty intense.

He said, nothing. I keep other people awake at night. They struggle to sleep at night knowing I'm here. I mean, you could watch it and go, that's a pretty arrogant thing to say. And then you realize he believes that, just like all the Marines are kind of, you know, can be cocky, because of the work they put in.

Like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning get their confidence from fucking grinding 90-hour weeks on the field, off the field, in preparation for the game. That's their craft. That's what they do. The reason Belichick and Andy Reed and Sean McVey and Kyle Shanahan, the moment they walk to the position on game day

are confident that they can win is because of they've learned it for years as an assistant coach or then as a head coach. And then the time they have put in honing in on that craft in season and in the off season. You can only get good at something by putting in time. Now, Jeff Saturday, in fairness, did not. claim to be good at this. He basically said, I have no clue. But as I said earlier in the week, it actually got cut out because we ended up going a long time with Colin. It is a much, I think I said

this to Colin. It's a much easier transition to go from scratch to be a GM than it is from go to scratch to be a head coach. Because I can lean on people as a GM, my college coordinator, my pro director, my head coach. It's virtually impossible. It is impossible. Now, that doesn't mean that there are a lot of players that if they wanted to coach, they would be good at it. And probably a large percentage of them will never go into coaching at the NFL level. They'll mess around with high school with their kids and lower levels and maybe even college because they're so rich. And the time it takes, like, I don't blame anyone worth $200 plus million. It's not worth it to be an NFL head coach.

I don't need the money. And too, I don't need the stress. Now I've said if Philip Rivers, if Peyton Manning, if Drew Breeze, they wanted to be coaches and just get into being a quarterback coach and then a coordinator, you don't fucking think they could do it, they could. But it would take time. No different than the reason Peyton Manning was a really good player is because he honed in on his craft since he was like seven years old. Through high school, through college, early on his NFL career. And he developed, you know, the 10,000 hours. and when you see Jeff Saturday,

you know, I don't think it's going to work, right? Not that, I don't think that Bill Belichick or Bill Barsel is in his prime, if you just put him on this Colts team, would have a chance. They're playing Sam Ellinger. But I also saw, like, when he got defensive, it's because he knows, like,

this is kind of crazy because it is crazy. It's very difficult to be an NFL head coach. The time it takes, the ability to deal with all these different people, like he can say, well, I've been in a locker room with all these people. They're not all depending on you.

So if you don't like a defensive tackle, or you don't like a corner, or you don't like the kicker, it doesn't matter when you're the starting center. Ultimately, you've got to get along with the guys on your unit. As the head coach, you've got to get, not necessarily like everyone, but you've got to be able to motivate them.

You got to know how they tick. You deal with everyone. Why? Because everyone's staring at you. Why is it hard to be a parent? Whether you have one kid or four kids, they all look at you. when it's time to eat, when it's time to go to school,

when it's time to do everything. You're the leader of the house. It's no different as the head coach, even as the CEO. You're seeing all these people get blown out right now in these tech jobs. Like ultimately, Zuckerberg probably personally didn't talk to a lot of the people he fired. But when I'm the head coach of an NFL team, a college team, a high school team, I'm interacting talking obviously more with some guys than others,

but with every player, with every assistant coach. And the only way, like, I get natural respect as the leader because I'm the boss. But you also earn more respect over time. Like, when you watch Mike Vrable, is Mike Vrable's success

have anything to do with his playing career? No one on that team actually gives a shit. You know why guys play hard for him, whether it's Derek Henry, whether it's Ben Jones, whether it's the dudes on defense? Because they respect him as a coach. They respect when he tells them things

about how to get ready, for the game, about how to live their life, about the scheme. It's working. It is turning into success. And that's taking time. And I would imagine if he was sitting right here, he'd be like, I learned a lot from Urban Meyer. I learned a lot from my position group at Ohio State. I then learned a lot with my position group with the Houston Texans. It takes time. And let's face it, like this, the only reason Saturday is the coach is because the owner. Like, not in a million years would Chris Ballard have chosen

this guy to be his head coach? Because you wouldn't choose an interim coach from outside your building. Now, listen, I've said over and over, Steve Wilkes is one of the worst head coaches I've ever seen, was a complete embarrassment, was a joke. But, like, why did they choose him? Like I said, I think the owner liked him,

one, and two, he was already there. So he knows the players and he knows the roster. It's just an easy transition in a tough time. Chris Ballard, whether he likes these guys or not, probably would have chosen a Gus Bradley, you know, a John Fox, just for an easy transition

and then figure it out after the season. But this also speaks to he's playing the Raiders this week. And Josh McDaniels is probably one of the more famous assistant coaches over the last several decades. And his head coaching career is well documented now.

I'm not going to beat a dead horse. is a fucking train wreck. Absolute disaster. Apologize the kids for swearing so much. My mom thinks I got kicked off Twitter. Actually didn't. I got locked out, scammed. It's stolen for swearing.

But that's not true. But Josh McDaniels under no circumstances can lose this game. You can't lose to a head coach who has never coached a game in college or the pros. Who came in in early November. You cannot lose to a quarterback

who's never, not only never, won a game, never thrown an NFL touchdown. You have to win this game. Like, just period, point blank, end of story. You cannot lose to this version of the Indianapolis goals. Now, am I confident they win? No, I'm not. I just saw Darren Waller went on injured reserve.

Hunter Renfro went on injured reserve. And just, let's face it, the team is pretty lifeless. I would be, I can't imagine in a weird way. You think Jeff Saturday is nervous? I would imagine Josh McDaniels is more nervous. His team's atrocious. They can't win a game. They've been getting their ass kicked by the Saints two weeks ago.

They blow another 17-point lead to the Jags. And now you're playing this guy? I've said over and over, I did not watch the Colts recently. Wouldn't do it, couldn't do it, can't do it. Quote my guy, Mike Singletary. Can't do it! They were too boring. It was too shitty of a product.

They're the equivalent of like, once you eat a bad meal at a place, if you've only gone one time, you're probably not going back. I'd seen enough of the Colts. I wasn't going back. But now I'm paying attention. Just like you, if you're a fan of the Giants, if you're a fan of the Cardinals, Seattle, Saints, whoever,

it doesn't matter who you're a fan of. If you're not a fan of the Colts, you're paying attention to this game. How could you not? What the hell is Jeff Saturday going to do? We all are. And listen, I don't think he's necessarily going to be a one-and-done. coach, but if you lose this game and you're two and seven and just lost a Jeff Saturday and Sam

Ellinger and Parks Frazier, you might be time to start packing your bags. And speaking about packing your bags, listen, I've said over and over my personality, I can't operate out of spite and vengeance. I don't do well in anger. It wastes my energy. I don't, I'm not productive that way. Some people thrive with that mindset. And listen, You have to figure out what works for you and then take advantage of that. For me, it has to be more optimistic. It has to be more positive. That's when I'm the most productive.

Clearly, some players and some coaches operate well kind of out of spite out of vengeance. Belichick's a great example, right? The moment you start talking shit, it's when he operates the best. The moment he has a specific angle to take you down, why does he beat the Jets all the time? because deep down for whatever reason, he hates the Jets. Truly hates. Now, I'm not saying that I like everybody, and there are some people that I don't like.

And if I got the opportunity in a direct one-on-one situation, I would hope to win and get the advantage, and I would take more joy out of beating some people. I don't take joy out of other people's failures. But when there are certain people that fail, if you don't like them, you know, I'm not losing sleep over it. And when McCarthy got fired, and I'm as guilty as anybody

probably outside like diehard Packers fans that truly wanted him gone for a long period time. I would have been one of the first to say Rogers was right, total meathead, had to get him away. Now, I'm not disputing no matter what's going on with the Cowboys these last two years that it was time for a divorce.

It had run its course. But the way everyone talked about them, the way everyone shit on them, and then the way the Packers went on to kick ass and take names when LaFleur came in, Rogers got his swag back, won a couple MVP's. It was like,

kind of like Brady Belichick. Clearly it was Rogers. And I still believe that. If I had to take one guy over the last 15 years, Rogers or McCarthy, we'd all choose Rogers. Every single person, probably including McCarthy's family. But it's not going well for the Packers. And they are really shitty.

And it was one of the predictions that everyone was making, picking Minnesota. I'm like, I don't see it. They got no DBEs. the Packers are going to be just as good. What are we talking about? Clearly, at 3 and 6, and the Minnesota Vikings are currently 7 and 1, I mean, they're a win and a loss away from this division being over,

like done, put a nail in the coffin. And think of who can kind of do it is Mike McCarthy. Like, Mike McCarthy isn't just having success since he fired Mike Nolan a couple years ago. He's kicking ass and taking names. Now, the playoff loss last year was bad. He was a favorite at home, got his ass kicked by the 49ers. But, bounce back this season, loses his quarterback week one,

and then is basically 6 and 1 the rest of this season? Like, in the last two years, Mike McCarthy, 12 and 5 last year, 6 and 2, he's 18 and 7. Like, Mike McCarthy is having a lot of success. Now, he's going to be judged because he's the Cowboys head coach and a former Super Bowl winning coach. How can he do in the playoffs? But like, think about this. and I talk about it with Stucky a little bit later.

When I first saw the line, I didn't pay that much attention to the schedule beside a couple big games earlier in the week. When I saw Packers Plus 5, I'm like, Oh, Green Bay at the Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay still getting some respect. No, Green Bay is at home at Lambo. So if you're Mike McCarthy,

you come back to Lambo where enough time has passed, enough success has happened, he'll get a standing O. But you can kind of handle the floor but more specifically, Rogers kind of season in early to mid-November and your team would be seven and two with a chance like all the needs to happen. It's probably inevitable.

The Eagles are going to lose one of these random games. And if you can just hold serve, all of a sudden, you're just one game back. They're eight and one. You're seven and two. You know, they're nine and one. You're eight and two. You just got to hold serve. But if he's your second running back, like you're in pretty good shape.

So I'm fascinated by the spite. vengeance game, even though McCarthy will play it. It feels like he's a happy, go lucky, jolly, big guy. But deep down, he's got to want this big time. And it's advantage him. So there's pressure on McCarthy to win this game.

There's pressure on Rogers and LaFleur just to save their season. This one, for a game with the Packers who are a tough watch right now, I'm pretty fascinated by this game. And this is a couple quick things. NFL in Germany. Who would have thought at the beginning of the season? That would have been like the Tampa would have been really good.

This would have been a terrible Seattle team. Classic one of those throwaway games. Now like can Seattle knock Tampa out? Is Seattle really this good? And they have been so far. And Kenneth Walker's been probably one of the, if not the best rookie offensive player. Definitely of late.

Brady somewhat saves that season last week with that little drive. Going to Germany, good little stat. It's kind of crazy when you close your, your eyes, it doesn't make that much sense, but I guess, you know, Germany's higher up there. The difference of flying from Tampa to Germany and flying from Seattle to Germany actually isn't that much farther. You would think, you know, it'd be a dramatic disadvantage for Seattle, which I'm pretty sure flew earlier in the week. But the flight, I forget the exact mileage, but it's not near the gap that you think that it would be. Kind of like Seattle in this game,

but, you know, you just, you never want to ride off old Thomas Brady. A lot of MVP talk, and now that Josh Allen, who knows with his injury, I just saw on Thursday that he was absent from practice, at least the portion that the media can see. If he's in and out of the lineup for moving forward or shell of himself, he's just not going to win the MVP. And a lot of people are trying to force two into that spot. Here's, if this season continues the way it's been going,

to me, you know who my MVP would be? Jalen's right there too. But as of right now, Tyree Kill. to me, Tyree Kill, besides like Micah Parsons, they're just not going to give it to a defensive player. He'll win defensive player of the year. Tyree Kill would be my MVP.

That guy is the most important player in the Miami Dolphins, who if they go, you know, 11 and 6 or 12 and 5, hell, if they win that division, they've already beaten the bills once, I'd have no problem voting that guy, the MVP. Plus, I've said over and over, I give him a lot of respect. I thought he would go to Miami,

kind of like cash out, you know, get that huge third kind of, contract, last big contract, and just kind of chill. He has been a dominant force. Uncoverable. He's unstoppable right now. And I give him his competitive character a lot of credit because I think a lot of people in his shoes might have done a little mailing job and he did not. And then the injured game. Think about this. Last year they combined for 23 wins. Ironically, they played each other in the playoffs because the way they both lost week 18. So even if you remove week 18, which you can't technically do because the 18th or the 17th game,

week 18, because there's a buy week. So, you know, the 17th game is actually out of conference game and both the Rams, week 18, played the Niners and Cardinals played Seattle. So they would have played that game. But they were both, one was 12 and 4 and the other was 11 and 5 coming into that game. So all that the Cardinals had to do, especially if the Rams lost, was win the game. And they did. They should have won the division.

But they combined for 23 wins and obviously the Rams kicked their ass in that Monday night football divisional game, which I'm a fan of. I like a good Monday night playoff game now. Stafford is in the concussion protocol and clearly he's a shell of himself this year. He has been, I'll give him somewhat of the benefit of the doubt, even though he's always thrown a lot of interceptions. He doesn't look right. Part of it, their own line is even worse. besides Cooper Cup, they can't run the ball. And the Cardinals have been a disaster.

I was flipping around HBO Max the other day. Girlfriends out of town in Mexico for this wedding. I couldn't go, you know, some of us got to work. You know, some of us can't just fall weddings, man. People. Now, granted, this wedding and her friend, you just, I'm a big spring summer wedding guy. But you got to do what you got to do. I'm not here to tell.

Plus, COVID pushed everything back. It is what it is. But I'm here working. No big deal. just taking care of the dog. And I was flipping around HBO Max because I used to watch the show industry, fantastic show,

very interesting, very entertaining. And I stumble upon, oh, the Cardinals mid-season hard knocks. I refuse to press play. Like, I'm not, I'm sorry. Anything cool happens. I'll find it on the internet, which those are the things I used to find on Twitter

now that I'm scammed out. Maybe I won't find on the internet. Who knows? But I'm not watching that. I just refuse. But the reality is someone who loses this game is, if the cards lose, they're three and seven. And Buda Baker's injured, Kyler's dealing with the hamstring. And hamstring, like most quarterback's hamstring is not a

normal injury. But when you're an athlete like him and very dependent on running, like that's, Michael Vic got a hamstring injury, I remember. Like, that's part of the deal here. I think, is Lamar got one too? It's just not a normal quarterback injury. More concussion, because sometimes you get crushed, as Stafford is, did get one. I mean, it's not inconceivable. that we get Colt McCoy versus Wofford, but it's looking like Kyler will play, and then more than likely, I guess there's just be up in the air,

depending if he can fix the protocol. But for the Cardinals to be 3 and 7, and there's a lot of talk, like it's Kingsbury going to lose his job. You know, who knows? Like, I don't necessarily expect it, but it won't necessarily just because they own a bunch of money. But who's going to want to coach Kyler?

Say the same thing about the Colts. Like, who's going to want to coach the Colts? They fired their coach. They hired Jeff Saturday. So you work for the Colts. You just know that Jim Ursay is always talking to those Peyton Manning teams. They're just kind of going behind your back talking to people. Now, maybe that's just part of the deal in the NFL.

The owner has his people that he's going to talk to, but it feels a little weird. I guess if I had to bet right now Kingsbury gets another year and is forced to fire some coaches. But who knows? Maybe I'm crazy. The Rams, like, they're season from hell. The big picture thing is going to be, let's say they lose this game. you beat 3 and 6, you don't have any draft picks, so you're not really into bottoming out because Detroit has your pick.

Like, you're trying to win. You're not tanking. There's no reason to tank. You don't have access to anything. This game is just fascinating to me because someone is, the loser of this game is going to feel like they're the Detroit Lions. And I'm excited to see who it is. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal,

but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream,

this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Back at it again. I think we have some clarity with my main man, Stucky, Action Network, follow them on Twitter, an app that I'm scammed, locked out of,

and find him on the Action Network. He does multiple podcasts, Thursday, Action Network podcast, as well as Big Betts on campus. Stucky, the Arizona Cardinals, I think officially are dead to you, and we can't bet on Frank Reich to lose this money anymore. So I think we got some clarity from the gambling guts.

Yeah, I tested fate with, usually it's like after week nine with Cliff Kingsbury is an automatic fade. And I was like, well, it's week nine, let's go with it. And it was just, they're arguing with each other, everything, it was just a disaster to watch. They couldn't even get a snap off. Seattle's running the same basic place. You know, Smith average two air yards per throw and threw for 270 yards.

just embarrassing preparation. Yeah, it was rough. And then, you know, the Colts, think about this. They knew the plays. They knew New England's plays. They were calling... Belchuk came out and said, Jack Leonard and knew our play.

So he's named the new play caller. Their defense completely shut down the Patriots. And granted, Jonathan Taylor to play. And they still got absolutely blown out. They averaged 1.9 yards per play, the fewest for Colts team since the 70s. They were sack nine times, zero third down conversions. And if you're into advance, that's negative 35 EPA, one of the nine worst offensive games in the NFL over the past 25 years. It was so shitty that I had to watch Jeff Saturday's first press conference as the head coach.

He said that Jim Ursay called him. during the game and basically offered him the job during the game. So hard to blame. We can talk shit all we want about Ursa. Hard to blame them. If I own the team and I watch that, I'd fucking someone would have to go and we'd already fired people. Like, it was time.

You know, not saying, what's crazy to me is, now granted, the Colts tackles, you know, it's not like they're playing with Trent Williams, but their offensive line over the last several years has been one of the more complete units is just abysmal. I mean, you watch, I don't watch them play anymore. Like, I refuse.

Like, I'm not watching that football. I don't need to talk about them except like shit like Jeff Saturday. But the actual football is completely me. It's terrible to watch. And their offensive line, they could have fucking Michael Vic in his prime. He'd be running for his life. Yeah, and they have so much money invested in that line, too, which hampers other parts of their roster. If it's going to be like this.

It was supposed to be one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and now it's one of the worst. Yeah, it's brutal. I'm interested to see what happens with Saturday because some of his quotes, he's just like, you know, I'm not going to be aggressive. I just take points when we can. Just get yards. They might, he's an offensive lineman.

My favorite clip of him is, I don't know, when him and Manning were playing together and Manning goes over and just says, and starts yelling at him, he points at him. It's one of the few times you'll see Manning on this island with a, with a live clip of him yelling. And he, Manning says, just after pass block, just aft pass block.

And then Saturday's yelling back at him. Run the damn ball. Run the damn. Why can't we run the damn ball? So that's my memory of Saturday. If Taylor looks like he's back, it might just be 40 dives on Sunday. So I'm curious to see how that plays out.

Do you think before we dive into a couple games, like Josh McKeever. Daniels, can you imagine if he lose to Jeff Saturday and Sam Ellinger? Like, it's already been a, I mean, it's one of the bigger, it's the biggest disaster in that division and Denver was considered probably the biggest disaster in the league. And the Raiders are worse. I mean, they're fucking two and six. You lose to Jeff Saturday, a guy that's never coached in college or the pros and a

quarterback who, did I see a staties never thrown a touchdown in the NFL, let alone obviously won a game? I mean, you can't, you cannot, you can lose to Trevor Lawrence and Doug Peterson, right? Trevor Lawrence was the next luck and Doug Peterson won a Super Bowl. Like, that sucks. It looks like a bad loss, but like those guys are real NFL people. Jeff Saturday, Sam Ellinger, I know. I mean, are we talking about a one and done coach?

Yeah, I mean, that, well, like the fake Twitter accounts with the check marks, maybe a little foreshadowing. You have the fake Schefter this week tweet out. Josh McDaniels has been fired. maybe that was a little foreshadowing to what could potentially happen. It's a mess for the Raiders. Is that worth anything? What happened to the line, Jeff Saturday, Frank Reich?

Are they worth, obviously Frank's probably worth more points, right? Yeah, I think the market still has some respect for Reich and has some questions for about Saturday, but it's, I mean, look, the line was, I know, it went up a little bit, but it's the Raiders, and the Raiders are, you know, it's not like everyone is rushing to bet the Raiders. That's not going to be a heavily bet game. I can't figure out the Raiders, and technically you should be buying low on the Colts here. You get Jonathan Taylor back, but I just, that is a game I want to stay far, far away from. Okay, let's dive into a game.

The Jags get a pretty nice win against the Raiders, playing Kansas City that if you siphon out that nineer game has not really been explosive point team, like they have been in years past. So when you give a team, you know, nine and a half points, to me, I mean, the Chiefs have not just been some consistent like 37 points on the board. I mean, a lot of times they're in the low 20s. So the nine and a half would be a little tasty, especially coming off. you know, Tennessee, it's weird, right?

They're a playoff team, but we don't look at them like a juggernaut. But they are just a consistent team that wins 10 plus games. And that was an impressive win when the Chiefs were not playing well, given that Patrick Mahomes just refused to let them lose, like a little bit of a come down here against a team that's ultimately going to be drafting in the top 10. So I guess the plus 9 and a half makes a little sense. Yeah, I took the plus 9 a half.

I mean, scoring down a little bit across the board in the NFL. Underdogs as a result are just crushing it. The margin of victory is down. I think underdogs between three and a half and ten are hitting at 64.5% this year, which is insane. But yeah, this line's too high. I didn't bet this yet. I'm going to bet it. I will bet nine and a half.

But it's a dead number right now. I'm going to wait to see if it gets the 10. If it does, it'll bet 10. If not, I still like it at 9. So I'm just waiting. You think it's more likely to get to 10 than 9? Yeah, I think that it might, you're probably going to have heavy public action on Kansas City. And then any time it hits 10, it'll get snatched up real quick by Sharp money.

So, yeah, and going from 9 and a half to 9 to 8.5 is meaningless. So I think it might touch 10, but it will not last long. So I'm going to see if I can grab it. But, you know, 9 is a dead number in the NFL. But I think it's too many points regardless. The Jaguars have, look, their top 10 in pressure rate, and Mahomes has struggled under pressure this year. And the offensive line is just not playing.

Well, it's just kind of like the Colts. He was under fire all night against Tennessee. And if you look at the Chiefs' home games this year, they won by three over the Chargers easily could have lost. They won by three over the Titans who didn't complete a pass to a receiver with a quarterback who went five of six. and ran 35 fewer plays. They went by one at home over the Raiders,

and again, they easily could have lost, and they lost the Buffalo. That's been their home results this year. Mahomes, if they're going to fade him, you want to do it when he's a favorite of seven plus points. He's 12 and 17 against the spread. Chiefs have the chargers on deck, which will essentially lock up the division,

you know, coming off a hard-fought game. They probably just, you know, don't need the show a lot. let's get a lead and then back door will be open. They'll sit on it. But I also think that Jacksonville can compete here. And they have all year. They finally won a close game last week. They're one in six now in one possession games.

They have not lost by more than one possession. They're feisty. I think ETSN, Lawrence can move the ball in this Chief's defense. They can get some pressure. Mahomes will make his plays. Jacksonville's known on the cover, Kelsey, just a little bit too high of a line here. I'll side with the dog.

Well, it's crazy as coming into the season. It's like, well, all four teams can win the AFC West. You know, it's fucking wide open. And now, I mean, the Chargers lose the Niners. The Broncos and Raiders aren't any good. The Chiefs win a couple of straight games. Like you said, they got the Chargers next. All of a sudden, they got hats and T-shirts by the time they're eating turkey, you know,

unofficially, right? I mean, it just shows you, man, that you cannot trust those other three teams. You just can't. And the chiefs just slow, steady this year, like you said, they have not, they've actually, the eye test, they've struggled at home. I mean, they have just not been the same team. And they're going to cruise, what, 11, 12 wins and win the division potentially by three games? Yeah, yeah. And it just shows you it's funny to look back at narratives about the NFL and how predictable it can be from a year to year basis.

I mean, the AFC, what we thought that division was going to be is somehow the AFCs. The NFC's. The AFCs, too. But in the AFC, it's like, who would have thought, like, the Patriots are in last place and everyone is competing in that division with the bills? And, like, it's, yeah, you got to love the NFL. Well, if I would have told you the Patriots are in last place on November 10th, you'd like, oh, they're, you know, they're 2 and 7. They're God awful. It's actually, like, they're 5 and 4.

Yeah. They feel like they're probably going to be a 9 or 10 win team. Yeah. You know, honestly, big picture. Let's dive into the, the brink. Browns at the Dolphins, like clearly the dolphins aren't going away. And a lot of people talk about Tua winning the MVP. If I was betting on the MVP, like I'm sorry, Tyrie kills the MVP of that team.

But the Jets, I mean, I don't know. Obviously their defense is good and they've been running the ball, but I don't think you can just sustain winning it with their quarterback, who is just a mess. Now, you could argue Mac Jones ain't that much better. I just trust Bill more than I trust Sala. Plus, he plays them again, and he always kicks their ass and he gets them at home because he's already beat him on the road.

So, I mean, if you had to pick, if you went Buffalo, assuming Josh is, you know, going to be able to keep playing, Buffalo, Miami, then would you go Patriots, Jets? Yeah. I mean, is that a three playoff team division potentially? Yeah, it could be. It depends on, I mean, if you figure, depends on what the Chargers do, if they can get healthier, which they've got a big couple of games coming up, but they could fall behind quick. And then all of a sudden you're saying it's just the chiefs from that division. and then. Bengals, too, if Jamar Chase is out a while.

Yeah, and then it's just like, it's just going to be that looks like just the Titan. So there's some spots opening up. It could easily be a three, you know, crazy scenario, four team. But I think three is pretty realistic. And, yeah, the Jets impressed me last week with their defense because they were playing so many backup quarterbacks and getting so lucky at the end of games. But they were playing, you know, one of the best offenses in the NFL. Now, granted, it's a home division game.

weird things happening in those. Zach Wilson didn't throw his picks, which he normally will. He only fumbled once. He's ultimately going to hold them back. But the defense showed me a lot. They can get pressure without blitzing. You know,

Sauce Garner is just so good for a rookie. And their special teams are also playing a lot better. So they'll be feisty, but, you know, they'll start losing some of these close games and Wilson will cost them. Yeah, I trust the Patriots just a tad more. You could argue the big,

difference between the Jets, Dolphins, the Patriots is just simply Tua's a lot better than obviously Zach Wilson and Mack Jones. Yeah, exactly. I mean, I don't need, and listen, I think Tua, the hype he gets on the internet's probably a little stronger than what I watch, but he is much more functional in playing with those guys. I mean, 17 and 10 are fucking monsters. Those guys are ass kickers. It's why I think you like Cleveland this week.

I just do not trust Jacoby. And I know that they, you know, they look pretty good. What was it two weeks ago against the Bengals on that Monday night game? And I think Monday night games for teams that it's weird. The Browns actually aren't a shitty team. They're just playing with their backup quarterback who's not going to be the starting quarterback for much longer. But just even bad teams get up for those Monday night games. It's a really big deal, especially divisional games.

We've seen it in years past when the Giants suck. Remember, they almost beat the bucks a couple years ago. Like just bad teams, Monday night. It's a big deal if you're a human being. So I would like Miami, I guess, this weekend. But it's weird. Like I don't even love Miami that much. I just kind of love their two receivers because their defense isn't that great.

But I just, you know, Jacoby can just be so hit or miss. I guess you just run the ball consistently. But is that something, Stefansky? Just, you know, I know he takes a lot of shit in Cleveland land about being pass happy sometimes. Yeah, I like Cleveland. Yeah, I took the plus four, like it a plus three. They've actually been really good on all. Like, their fifth in EPA,

dropback. Their offensive top 10 EPA on the league this year, they've just been really unlucky. And they're actually getting healthier too. They're coming off of a buy here. They should get Denzel Ward back. Their offensive line should be at full strength. And if you look at what they've done this year, right, they're three, they have three wins. The dolphins have six wins. But the Browns, here are their losses this year. They lost by one to the Jets game. They should have won. lost by three to the Falcons, gain they should have won. Two to the Chargers, again, they should have won. Three to the Ravens.

Held the Ravens of 200 yards, by the way. That's another key here. Brown's defense over their previous two games has figured something out. Garrett's obviously dominating, but they were missing assignments, but they look so much better. The communication was better. They simplified the scheme against the Ravens, and then the Bengals, two good offenses before the buy.

And their defense was a disaster early in the season. And so, yeah, I think their defense is trending up. But that's one in four in games decided by six points or less. Do you know what the dolphins are? They are five and oh. They beat the Ravens by four in a miraculous comeback win. The bills by two, they got out game by 200. They beat the Steelers by six at home.

And then in the last two weeks, they beat the Lions and Bears by four and three. So why? Well, their offense was humming, but their defense is really bad right now. They also have the worst special teams in the league, if you look at some advanced metrics. But their defense is bad right now, and the reason is they don't get pressure, and their secondary is decimated. So they can't do anything. They can't blitz. They can't cover.

They need to get Jones back. They have a buy coming up. Brandon Jones, they got to get back. Byron Jones, they got to get back. Zavon Howard has been playing hurt. All their backup corners are hurt. They can't stop anybody, and they are just finding ways to win late with that offense by two, three, four.

Not going to happen forever. That's what's going to hold them back. Their defense has to get healthier to just, they don't have to be great on defense. Just get a few stops. So, yeah, I think the Browns off of a buyer, defense trending up. Offense should be able to move the ball on this decimated Miami team. I'll gladly take over three here with Cleveland. Yeah, I guess when I, and when I said pass happy, I just.

meant more, because obviously Chubbs having an incredible season. He's just called past plays that have led to like red zone picks for Jacoby that I didn't quite realize. I mean, when you watch him, my takeaway is like, I know Derek Henry's come on this last three or four weeks, but Chubbs are the best running back in the league.

I mean, he's on pace for potentially like 2,000 yards and 22, 23. He is fucking incredible. And what's the way to slow down a really explosive offense? Kyle Shanahan style, just pound the ball, slow the game down, and don't give as many shots to the other team, right?

Yeah, it should be able to control the ball here, keep their offense on the silence. And Berset can make all the throws when he's under pressure. He just turns the ball over. Yeah, when he's under pressure is when it's problematic, but the offense aren't getting pressure. The Browns have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL should be at full strength this week.

And Miami's going to be worried about the run. Like, he's going to make some easy play action throws here against a secondary that is decimated. So, yeah, I think this will be a close game, but I'll gladly take over a field goal here. Crazy thing is looking at some of these offensive stats, if they just had a healthy Deshawn Watson the whole season, it'd be hard to not say this team's a playoff team, right? Yeah, and that's what's sad if you're a Browns fan. If Watson comes back, now we'll talk about this later in the year, but I'm a little concerned

if Watson has played in 700 days. Like, he's not just going to come back and be like, you saw him in the preseason. He looked, because it's going to be Russ. Like, that's why you have a preseason. But if you say it took them a couple of days, would really hurt the Browns is all of these losses, one and four in these games decided by four points or less, if they were the opposite, right? And won all the four-fills. Yeah, they would put themselves in position to get to the playoffs when Watson was back. And then by the time you get to the playoffs, even as a wild card, if you have Watson acclimated into the offense, they would have been scary, but they lost all those coin flip.

So it's a huge uphill climb now. I hadn't been paying attention to this game just because the Packers, in a weird way, they are relevant because they're the Packers and they got Rogers, but their team is not. And when I saw the line that you like the Packers plus five, unlike them, they're hosting the Cowboys. And then you realize, or excuse me, I mean, they're on the road. and then you realize once I click the game that, no, they're at home. And this would have been a line.

I mean, we've talked to a lot about look-ahead lines. I would imagine at the beginning of the season would be like a, what, a nine-point swing the other way. So it shows you how low the Packers. I mean, it's pretty embarrassing. Like, just from a gambling standpoint, reflective of the team that is very unbiased, like, that is an embarrassing line. I mean, that to me reflects, like, you're,

team is in fucking shambles. And then watching that game last week, every time you look, a dude's limping off the field, dudes in a boot, a dude's hurt. So it's one thing that just haven't played well. And then they just lost a lot of dudes. I mean, one of their best players on defense is out for the season now. And the other thing is, when does Rogers ever throw picks like that? Like, everyone gets fooled on like an out route, right?

A corner jumps it. This happens to Brady, Peyton Manning, Brett Farb. But the picks over the middle where the corner runs underneath. like that's that's a shitty quarterback interception especially in the in the red zone my take on on rogers is like it'd be human nature you know when you get to be great at anything you don't lose your confidence right away but after a while if you start looking around you've tried everything nothing's working maybe he's lost his confidence a little bit which would be i mean kind of normal for any human being when you're not having success over and over and over again and if he's lost his confidence

even if it's from 100% down to 80, they are royally fucked, and I would, I'd be very leery gambling on them at all. Yeah, I mean, I'd hold my nose. Maybe I'll jigs myself, but this is, my, Packers are true to me very well.

I'm eight-no on betting Packers games this year. Just seemed to have a good feel on them. The only time I bet them is against the bills when they got that backdoor. They did cover. Yeah, they did cover. If you dig into their stats, like they're a league,

Yeah, so let's take football outsiders as a measure DVOA to adjust for opponent. People think that the Packers are horrendous and the Vikings are decent. If you look at this adjust for opponent, it doesn't account for injury, so it doesn't account for the fact that the Vikings have played some backup quarterbacks. The Packers on offense are 15th. League average offense. The Vikings are 16th. The Packers defense, 18th.

Vikings defense, 19th. So what's happened with the Packers is, I mean, they're 12th in net drive success rate, 11th in net yards per play. Their second and rush success rate, you know, 10th in success rate on offense. They actually can move the ball officially, mainly through the, they're very good running the ball, which I think they'll lean on here. These don't score. Yeah, they've been so unlucky in the red zone with turnovers and fourth downs. They are 20%. They've lost, from an EPA perspective, 30 points on fourth down conversions.

They are three for 15, and they've been huge fourth downs, just massive swings. And obviously they don't have a lot of explosiveness, but they're able to move the ball, and they're just getting unlucky on turnovers, red zone. Things that are, there's a lot of variance in, you would think that there's some correction, some regression coming. So they're not as bad as they look. They're not great. They're just, to me, a league average team that's getting unlucky and also dealing with some growing pains, the offensive lines had injuries.

Now they have injuries on defense. But this is a must win for them. Riders has never been an underdog of more than three points at home. And I think they'll be able to run the ball. I think you'll get a spirited effort. And I think this is just buying the stock at a low point, just like that against the bills. And if you think about it, that line closed around 10 at Buffalo. Buffalo was also off the buy.

one of the best home field advantages in the NFL in prime time too. And the Packers were playing in the fourth stadium in four weeks, just looked awful against Washington. And they were catching 10 there on the road. Okay, let's swing the home field back the other way. And they covered that game, by the way. Let's swing the home field back the other way. And we're going to Green Bay.

And Dallas now is laying five on the road in Lambo. You account for the home field. basically saying the bills at full strength and the Cowboys are the same. Don't buy it. I think this line should be three. I think the Cowboys should be favored. But I think you're catching the Packers. That's what you really want to do when you're betting the NFL by low. So I think you're catching the Packers at the low point. There could be some regression coming. They've been the unluckiest team in the NFL by far. This is just a league average team. That's what they're going to be all year. You hope they get some breaks, but there's too much value in this number for me to pass up.

You know, what's crazy looking at points per game is like, toward the bottom 10 are the Bucks and the Packers at 18 and 17.1. I mean, that's, I mean, two teams that, I mean, the Bucks still might get there just based on their division, but the reviewed as like, I guess, depending on who you talk to as, you know, playoff locks and playoff consistent stalwart teams with Brady and Rogers. And the I test. as bad as like you just watch them. They, like you said, they just can't score. And ultimately, like, my always push back on the, on the stats, like, you know,

yards per play, the rushing stats, the passing, but ultimately the point of the game is to have more points than the other team. And, you know, some of these games, I mean, the Packers just lost the Lions. It's not like the Lions had fucking 30 points, right? What was the final without a game? 15 to 9? 15 to 9. I graded it out as a Packers.

Like, I grade out with the final scores based on that's as a, as a, 12 point win. They had 400 yards of offense to the lines 250. Yards for play 5.6 to 4.5. Yeah, I get what you're saying. Well, it's red zone turnovers. I mean, there's nothing worse than a red zone pick. Four downs, they were one for four.

Again, they just, and with the, I normally agree with you. You can't just look at the stats. There's, a lot of times there's an underlying story. It's one of the reasons why I love watching the games and trying to understand from that perspective as well. But like the fourth down thing, I do think is very fluky because they're second in the NFL in Rush Success right. They're a good rushing team. Like they should be picking up these fourth downs. And then the Red Zone turner, like, Bradgers usually doesn't throw picks. He doesn't turn it over. It's a Hall of Fame quarterback. That was my point on the

style of the turnover suit. To me, the throwback pass, you know, fuck, he shorted it, whatever. That's a weird play, but the passes over the middle where the guy undercuts, like that, that's a shitty quarterback pick, in my opinion. Yeah, he's definitely forcing it. And I think he's a little, you know, just jitterish in the pocket because he's been getting, he's just been under fire so much. The good news is their offensive line is like the healthy it said it's been all year. So you hope that, you know, back to your, the rookie Tom that he's putting snaps,

was actually playing really well. They got Jenkins back at left guard. You hope that they can, yeah, I assume they're just going to lean on their run game here, short passing attack. That's what you have to do against Dallas, so you don't let their defensive line take over the game. You can run on them a little bit. I'm assuming you're going to get a best effort from their defense. This is it. Like, if they want to make any outside shot at the playoffs, they're three and six.

You lose this game. You're done. Season's over. If you win it and you get the four and six, You know, you're in the NFC. All of a sudden, four and six, you're in the playoffs. Look at the NFC standings. It's Philly, Dallas Giants have six or more wins.

The Vikings have seven. The Seahawks have six. There's still another spot in the playoffs. Everyone else, the next highest is four wins. So you're right there to potentially make a run, but you don't win this game. You're done. So I assume you're going to get their best effort, everything they got. And I just think the line's too high, basically.

It's crazy. I said the Chiefs can't score. They lead the league in scoring. But, I mean, they do have the Cardinal game, the Niner game. And I think that Raider game was at 30 to 29. So they have a couple three or four high scoring games that probably help boost that a little bit. Yeah, the Chiefs, they don't have the same explosiveness. They still have, now, granted, the 49ers were decimated by injuries on defense that game.

They still have. Now, my Jacksonville bet will be toast unless, Trevor Lawrence goes off. Plays well. If the chiefs have one of their days, every month or so, when everything is clicking, it is a spectacle to watch. And then Mahomes is just on another level. You just chalk it up.

So they've had a couple, one of those things, but it's not the same explosive. The offensive, the offensive line isn't playing as well. So, yeah, the chiefs don't have that same blowout potential on a week-to-week basis. Well, Stucky, let's win some Betts, have a good weekend, bro. Let's have a good one.

See you. Yep, good luck. Of all you. Another podcast from some SNL, late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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