The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - McVay Retirement Clickbait, Kupp Draft Lessons, Deshaun Watson Market, Rodgers Decision, Harbaugh NFL Inevitability
Episode Date: February 18, 2022John explains why the flurry of retirement talk surrounding McVay and Aaron Donald was always ridiculous, why Cooper Kupp's 3rd round draft position wasn't a scouting failure, if teams will pursue Des...haun Watson this off-season despite pending legal issues, which NFC North team would benefit most by Aaron Rodgers leaving Green Bay, and why Jim Harbaugh will eventually return to the NFL.Subscribe NOW and follow The Volume on Twitter, Instagram + YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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What is going on, everybody?
John Middlecop, three and out podcast.
Beautiful Thursday afternoon.
A little chilly.
You know, it's 65 degrees for us.
West coasters, that's cold.
You know, I don't like it about anything under 60.
That's freezing to me.
But for those of you that live across the country,
it might be a little colder where you are.
Obviously we got no more football.
Games, but we have a lot of football actually going on.
The free agencies right around the corner.
The combines right around the corner.
The drafts right around the corner.
Then we got OTAs.
Then we got a little summer break.
A lot of people have been hitting me up.
We got a lot of newer listeners.
They're like, middle cough.
Do you keep going after the season?
Yes, this is a year-round podcast.
This is how I feed my unborn children.
I'm a podcaster.
I talk.
We go 24-7, 365.
So there is no stopping this.
I have been doing.
doing two to three podcasts a week now for on the three and out for, I don't know, four and a half
years, a long time. So there is, and we're only going to keep doing more. A little change.
We're going to do the Middlecoff mailbag at John Middlecoff as the Instagram at John Middlecoff.
I'm going to put it on the weekend because we usually do Stucky. You just want to have a little
weekend content. So I'm going to put, it'll be on the three and out feed this weekend.
The Go Low podcast. If you like golf, you like the PGA tour, the Saudi movement with Phil
Mickleson, a lot of drama there.
Every Wednesday comes out on the three and out
podcast feed. So if you listen through Collins' feed,
you got to subscribe to the three and out
feed with me. John Middlecuff, go
subscribe. Appreciate everyone that has.
And I think the next
couple weeks, there won't be a
Monday podcast. You know, I'm not
getting lazy. You know, as Belichick says
no days off, but, you know, there's
not much, unless something breaks,
we'll probably won't have a Monday podcast.
I would say these next couple weeks
leading into the Combine. And then, you know,
once free agency will just roll as normal as stories break.
But probably for these next couple weeks,
I'm going to play some golf,
I'm going to drink some alcohol and I'm going to hang out this weekend.
Probably again next weekend.
So that'll probably be a little bit of a change and moving the mailbag.
But other than that, nothing.
We'll keep on rolling.
The podcast is not going away just because the games are over.
I like talking about the off season, actually.
I like talking about the games more than the off season.
But I really enjoy free agency, the trades, the teams,
the team building, the draft.
I love the draft.
Have a draft take today on a Cooper Cup that I've been seeing kind of going.
We'll get into it here in a second.
Okay, I wanted to start with the retirement talk.
I mean, that kind of took off.
And rightfully so.
Once the headlines start going around,
and we can call clickbait,
it's hard to even tell exactly what clickbaited is anymore.
But clearly, media can take a quote from a guy
and really stretch it and use it to draw up some activity
and some interest. And if you read what McVeigh said, he talked about retiring when he was 60.
He didn't know if he saw himself coaching until 60. Well, he's not 55. He's 36 years old.
Now, have there been some rumors out there? Of course television would want him. Of course. He talks like
John Gruden. He feels like a young, millennial version of John Gruden, clearly a better guy.
And just someone that everyone, like he would be a magnetic television personality. The other thing is,
ESPN has been desperately trying to get a star in the booth for years
since John Gruden went back to the Raiders.
They've had Madden, they've had Gruden, they want a Peyton manning,
they want a Sean McVeigh.
Even Sean Payton is probably not as big of a star power,
even though they both have one Super Bowl as Sean McVeigh.
And part of it is just Sean McVeigh's young.
We'll get into Sean Peyton a little bit later.
But the retirement, I've been following his beautiful fiancé on Instagram.
I mean, you know, I think we all probably follow a lot of people we don't know on Instagram of the opposite sex.
And she's won.
Also, you know, kind of keep track of McVeigh's life.
Not really.
There's not that much McVeigh content on there.
But here's what I loved about the Rams parade is the amount of alcohol that was being consumed by Sean McVey.
There were pictures on a bus at 8 a.m.
with Sean McVeigh double-fisting.
And she posted a picture that he is not retiring, kind of tongue-in-cheek, messing with everyone.
but also kind of being serious.
He's not retiring of a picture of him with a glass of wine.
And in the Instagram story,
he was watching what looked like the inside the NFL show,
the miced-up version of the game, of the Super Bowl.
And I started thinking like, you know,
I'd probably be doing the same thing,
wasted, watching the game back.
He was excited.
I mean, he had a big smile on his face,
absolutely plastered.
My over under on his drinks that day,
glasses of wine, tequila shots, beers,
probably in the low 20s.
And I give him a lot of it.
He's not that big of a guy.
And during the season,
it's not like he drinks that much.
His tolerance is pretty high.
Sean McVaget's after it.
But I think from a football perspective,
and I've compared him before to John Madden,
because once John Madden won that Super Bowl,
it changed his life.
But let's face it,
the real reason John Madden
became such a big deal,
he didn't get into the Hall of Fame
until the 2000s.
Like he had this great coaching record.
He was known as the guy calling games.
And let's face it,
he revolutionized that position.
He's the best.
best that has ever done it any sport.
And then the video game, like he became a larger than life person outside of the football
world.
But on the football field, like he had a bunch of great teams with the Raiders and only
won one Super Bowl.
And I think, you know, if you talk to him in his younger days, he probably would tell
you we easily could have won two or three.
And part of winning two or three Super Bowls is it separates you from the pack, right?
It's why Andy Reid, the last couple of years, you're like, can he get that second one?
He's already, he's, in my mind, Andy Reid was going to win one and he eventually got one.
But in my opinion, he's a two or three Super Bowl level coach.
And I think he's going to get another one.
Just like, you know, Bill Parcells, if Bill Parcells had won one Super Bowl,
I don't think we talk about Bill Parcells the way we talk about Bill Parcells.
He won multiple Super Bowls.
It changes the narrative on you as a coach.
And Sean McVeigh got the hardest part out of the way.
He's a champion at 36 years old.
And the retirement talk to me was silly
And we talked about earlier in the week
He just needs a race
Give him $18 to $20 million
Five-year deal, let's move on
Same with Aaron Donald
Aaron Donald wants a race
Aaron Donald's not going to retire either
But I looked at his contract
Aaron Donald's contract
If he had been shitty
Instead of becoming the greatest player
We've ever seen a defensive line
Or one of them
I mean Reggie White
They're Mean Joe Green
They're other players
He would have been able to get out of it
And cut him this year
So I think part of why he's doing this
He wants a brand new contract
He's well worth it too.
Five years, $100 million,
guarantee every penny or something,
whatever it takes.
You've got to extend all these guys,
Matt Stafford.
They are built to keep winning.
To me, can Sean McVeigh
get into the crew of multiple Super Bowls
as a head coach?
It's a short list, right?
But when you win multiple Super Bowls,
it changes the landscape
of how we think about you.
A lot of guys have won one Super Bowl.
Gary Kubiak won a Super Bowl.
Brian Billick won a Super Bowl.
Right?
Are you just going to be the guy
that just wins one, or are you going to be the guy that wins multiple?
And he has a great position.
Like, ultimately, I think Andy's going to get another one.
But time, you know, he's not 50 years old.
He's in his early 60s.
So he's got the next four or five years to really take advantage.
And he's had the last couple post the first Super Bowl.
He knows it, right?
You know, eventually you run out of time.
Like Belichick, probably never going to win another one.
But you know what doesn't matter?
He's got six.
And I think Sean McVeigh now in these next two or three years,
can he win another Super Bowl?
Because watching the Montana documentary,
the thing that separated Parcells
wasn't when he won the thing in whatever it was, 1986.
It was when he won the second one in 1990.
That's when he became a fucking legend.
If Sean McVeigh, who, if Rogers were to leave,
and we'll get into Rogers a little bit later,
Trey Lance and Kyle need to figure some stuff out.
The Saints don't have a quarterback.
The Bucks don't have a quarterback.
The Eagles got quarterback, you know, question marks.
The Cowboys, no one trusts McCarthy or their team.
Like, he has an opportunity to go back to back.
back. But if you go back to back, if he wants to retire, do whatever you want to do.
But I really believe these next three or four years in the peak of his earning potential,
his youth, his energy, he's got a chance to become a legend. And we're going to find out.
Is he like a better version of Gary Kubiak or is he the offensive version of Bill Parcells?
Mike Shanahan won a couple, right? He already got the hardest part out of the way.
One thing I think we saw in the Super Bowl, like ultimately you need a good offensive line.
everyone is shooting to have a good offensive line,
but it doesn't make or break you.
If you have a star quarterback, you can overcome that.
Everyone wants like multiple, like,
I want my two starting cornerbacks to be Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay
with Ed Reed and Cam Chancellor's safety.
Let's face it, most defenses have like two good DPs,
max between their safeties in the corners.
There is no perfect team.
Ideally, you need a star quarterback, a really good coach.
But the thing that separates teams as you go on every round,
like, you know what the Cowboys lack?
toughness.
They had a lot of talent.
They did not have the toughness.
They did not have the mental fortitude.
They jumped off sides a million times in that game
against the 49ers.
You know what the 49ers had?
They didn't have the star power at quarterback
that the Bengals or the Rams had.
But they had a lot of intangible shit on their side.
You know what the Rams also had?
Despite having a lot of, I mean, it's a good thing.
They had a lot of talented players.
A lot of those guys had elite intangibles.
Vaughn Miller, all-time great, intangible guy.
Aaron Donald, same thing.
Obviously, Matt Stafford, Cooper Cup, Whitworth,
their intangibles were off the chart.
The toughness level of that team was fantastic.
Joe Burroughs sprained his knee in that game.
Now, for one second did anyone think he was coming out?
One thing that will never change in the sport of football,
you need a star quarterback,
you need explosive players, you need good pass rushers.
We all know, you know,
what a good team looks like.
But if that team, the cowboys have it,
but they don't have the intangible stuff.
If you do not have the guys
who have the willingness to be dragged off the field
and are smart football players,
you don't have a chance to win big in the playoffs.
You don't.
Because everyone, once you get to the playoffs,
has the talent.
Do you guys have the elite intangible stuff?
Which is impossible to quantify.
It's the hardest thing to scout.
Because ultimately this is a people business.
The players are human beings.
They're not robots.
So when you get a guy, Randy Gregory, big time talent.
Again, he jumped off sides like five times in that fucking game against the Niners.
So it's like a lot of guys are really talented.
But do you play smart?
Like watch Aaron Donald.
He doesn't do dumb things.
And then the toughness was off the chart.
So I think we undervalue so much of the time toughness when it comes to sport of football.
Another story I saw going around is there was like an article written about how the Rams built their team.
there was part of it about Cooper Cup.
And Cooper Cup was a third round pick who went to the senior bowl and then he went to the
Combine and ran in the four sixes.
And these comments to this athletic article was like, teams need to figure out how to scout
better.
How could teams have overlooked Cooper Cup?
Let's pump the brakes.
Cooper Cup, who I think is on a trajectory to be a Hall of Fame player.
But when he was drafted, he went in the right spot.
The draft is an economic.
exercise. If I told you that you could get a house, you could own a house in five years that's worth
$10 million, would you rather pay $4 million for that home or would you rather pay $1 million
for that home? Of course, you'd say, well, I'd rather pay $1 million for the home that's going to be
worth $10 than $4, the one that's going to be worth $10 because I'd rather make $9 than make $6.
Of course you would. If you love Cooper Cup, for example, the Rams did in this article when he ran,
I think it was like 4-6-4.
Maybe it was 4-6-2, whatever it was.
One of the scouts for the Rams
looks at Les Need and goes,
that sucks.
And Les Need looks at him,
and part of draft stories,
you know, they become mythological,
you know, I wouldn't say bullshit,
but, you know,
they stretch the truth a little bit
to make it sound good.
And Les Need looks back
at his right-hand man,
one of his main scouts,
and goes,
I love it.
Like, he was glad that he ran a poor time.
Now, ultimately,
Cooper Cup came from Eastern Washington,
a smaller school and didn't run that fast.
Now, as we know, just because you come from a smaller school
and don't run that fast on the 40
does not determine whether you're going to succeed or fail.
Google Jerry Rice, Mississippi Valley State.
But it does determine your draft value.
When you run slow at the combine,
you are not going to go high in the draft
at wide receiver or corner.
That's just a fact.
Because the draft is a market value exercise.
And also, when I was, for example, not I, but like when Russell Wilson was coming out,
John Snyder, you know, his favorite player in that draft is well documented was Russell Wilson.
He pounded the table to Pete Carroll like, I don't care how small this guy is.
He is going to be a starting quarterback and a great player in this league.
And I bet even he didn't realize he was going to be as good as he became.
But they drafted Bruce Irvin in the first round.
And if memory serves me correct, they drafted Bobby Wagner in the second.
and they drafted Russell Wilson in the third.
Now, you'd go, well, if they could do it all over again,
they would have taken Russell Wilson in the first round.
No, they wouldn't.
They would have taken other guys knowing that his value was going to be in the third round.
You would always rather pay less for an asset that you really want,
regardless of, you know, part of it is being patient.
And listen, there's an unknown aspect of this.
But the league didn't miss on Cooper Cup.
He went where he was supposed to go.
You see it every single year, right?
Like, he is going, guys like that,
smaller school guys,
a lot of production who don't run that fast,
fall in the draft.
Devante Adams,
I followed his career.
I had left Fresno State and went to the Eagles,
and that's when he came and started.
And I loved him.
Everyone loved him.
I don't know any human being
that didn't love Devante Adams in college.
But when he went to the Combine
and did not run in the four-fours,
he was not going to go in the first round.
It's just, that's just his,
that's the market,
value. That's the way the draft works. Now, there are certain positions that basically, if you have
some basic traits, you're an untouchable. Like, you know, it's harder for you to fall. Quarterback,
pass rusher, and offensive linemen, mainly tackles. But all these other positions, wide receivers,
corners, there have been a lot of corners that fell in the draft and then became good players
because they didn't run that fast. It doesn't mean you would never draft a guy in the first round
if you know you can get them in the fourth round, if you are good at your job. And you could
love the player. Mike Mayock
lost his job and a huge reason was
he kept missing on first round players,
him and Slash Gruden. Like, you would
never take Cleland Farrell at 4.
You could have got him at 25.
You would never take Alex Leatherwood at 17.
Could have got him at 38.
Like, part of the draft
is knowing where you can get players.
And there's a, you don't know
if another team is going to take a player.
But that, to me, is a part
we never talk about
with these general managers.
The general managers that don't get the valuation of players in a draft to me are the worst.
I call them dumb dumps.
I call them just meatheads.
It's why I'm such, I mean, I worked around Howie Roseman.
No one has a better idea of value.
It doesn't mean he's always right, but he knows where guys are going to go.
Because you never want to pull the trigger on a guy in the third round when you could have got him in the sixth.
And vice versa.
If you want to get this guy in the fourth, but you got to take him in the second.
Well, if you want him, you've got to take him in the second.
That's a huge, it's an economic exercise.
It's what I've, as I've gotten older, really grown to love about the draft.
Is valuing players knowing, you know, their attributes when they test where that kind of puts you in the spectrum.
And knowing, you know, give or take 10, 15 spots where you got to pull the trigger to get the player.
Because where you are drafted does not determine whether you're going to go to the Hall of Fame, be a pro bowler, or be a bust.
Pick 199,
greatest player of all time.
Richard Sherman,
fifth round corner,
Hall of Famer.
Hell, J.J. Watt and Aaron Donald
didn't even go in the top 10.
So it's just
the draft, I think,
the guys need to learn how to scout.
No, Cooper Cup went where he was supposed to go?
And then he became an awesome player.
That's how the NFL works.
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Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.
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A lot of Deshawn Watson talk.
I don't really have a take on Deshawn.
Watson. Until the stuff off the field goes away, like, I'm not going to talk about them.
I would not trade form as another general manager, if I was a general manager, until all that
stuff disappeared. I could not pull the trigger till it all went away. And until it goes away,
I couldn't tell myself that it's going to go away. I'm not a lawyer. I'm not in, I don't know
the court system. I'm a GM. I'm a scout. I'm a contract negotiator. I don't get that world.
and anyone, I can have detectives,
I can have people telling me the information
until it's concrete
and he has no longer
have 22 cases or whatever
out against him.
It's civil, not federal or whatever.
Again, I'm not a lawyer either.
I get confused by it all.
But until it goes away, I could not trade for him.
Now, I am not naive enough to think
if you just follow the history of sports
and I've been a diehard sports fan now for three decades.
We see guys like this
even with stuff hanging over his head
still get dealt, still get traded.
So I would not discount the fact that he could have these things hanging over him
and a team could trade for him because they're desperate
and he's a talented pro bowl level quarterback.
I just know myself, if I was an owner, if I was a general manager,
if I was a head coach, I would be okay missing out on him
without, I would not be comfortable taking the risk
on acquiring him while he still has to figure this shit out.
I couldn't do it.
And you guys know me.
I'm not moral high horse guy.
I'm not trying to act like I'm superior on this shit.
I just couldn't take the risk.
Because if he did do some of this stuff,
and then I've acquired him and I've given three or four first round picks,
I got egg on my face as the owner, as the head coach, and the GM.
And I just, I don't see the, obviously the ROI on this move.
If it all goes away and you've already traded for him and you had to figure this stuff
and it lasts until the summer and you get this player, it was all worth it.
But it's just too much unknown, too much uncertainty.
and too many things you would never know until this stuff goes away.
Kevin O'Connell was hired by the Minnesota Vikings.
And I've been hearing about Kevin O'Connell since the mid-2000s.
Girl I dated in high school and we were on and off during college,
played water polo at San Diego State.
And same year, I'm the same age as Kevin O'Connell.
And he was a starting quarterback at San Diego State
and one of her best girlfriends on the team.
I think kind of date Kevin O'Connell.
I just been hearing about his name forever
and then obviously he got drafted in third round
by the Patriots. I've called it a fall in his career loosely.
Really good-looking dude.
You know, and obviously his career has really taken off
these last couple of years.
Worked for Gruden with the Washington football team
and then obviously Sean McVeigh changed his life.
He went and he filled in
once Sean McVeigh lost some coaches.
I think it was the guy that Seattle hired Waldron.
He took his spot, basically became Sean's O.C.,
the rest of history.
A year later, he's the head coach
for the Minnesota Vikings.
And Minnesota is, I think, kind of an underrated job.
Owner has a bunch of money.
They've had a lot of consistent success.
Now, it's not like the Steelers or these teams that have won Packers, a bunch of Super Bowls.
I mean, when's the last time?
I don't think they've been in the Super Bowl in my adult life since like the 70s.
Now, they've had really good teams.
They've been to the playoffs a boatload of times.
And they have historically and consistently drafted really well.
They've had really good GMs.
And he inherits a team with a starting quarterback,
while he has some flaws, good player.
Statistically has been awesome these last several years in Kirk Cousins.
They have offensive weapons galore.
Thielen, unreal red zone player.
Justin Jefferson, top three wide receiver.
Dalvin Cook, top two or three running back.
So he has offensive weapons ready to go,
fantastic fan base, some defensive pieces on the field.
What is he?
Is he going to be one of those guys that immediately it's like,
it wouldn't quite be LaFleur because he's not Aaron Rogers,
but what if Aaron Rogers leaves?
What if Aaron Rogers goes to Denver Broncos
or the Vegas Raiders
or just leaves the conference?
Well, they will immediately be the favorite
to win the division
and all of a sudden Kevin O'Connell
could win 10, 11 games
and look like a genius.
And there is pressure on him.
Like, ultimately,
I've been hard on Uber Fluse.
I'm actually a fan of Dan Campbell.
But we understand those teams sucking.
You know, Justin Fields has a long way to go.
Dan Campbell, the quarterback situation,
The talent situation is not very good.
But when you look at Minnesota, like, if I gave them Sean McVeigh or I gave them Kyle
Shanahan, they would be in the playoffs.
100%.
If I gave them either one of those two coaches.
So is Kevin O'Connell?
Remember Matt Nagy's first year?
Now, he had Vic Fangio, but they went 12 and 4 and they made the playoffs in Chicago and won
the division, host of the playoff game.
I don't expect them to win the division if Aaron Rogers stays with the Packers.
But if Aaron Rogers leaves, there is really.
no excuse for Kevin O'Connell, besides he just might not be a good coach, we won't know
until we see him coach, to not win that division.
Because they have talent, and they have a lot of offensive firepower.
And they just have a quarterback.
Like, you look at Brian Dayball and Joe Shane in New York, they're inheriting a team with
Daniel fucking Jones.
Like, ultimately, Mike McDaniel is inheriting a team with Tua Tonga Vailoa.
You know, I'm not expecting much out of either one of those guys.
Now, I hope, especially Mike McDaniel, I'm a big fan.
I hope the New York Giants are good because huge fan base,
good for the league. But I'm not expecting either
one of those teams to be playoff teams.
Hell, Brian Flores was a good coach
and couldn't make the playoffs. Now, you would
say in Miami their offense probably be a little better,
their defense come back to Earth. Maybe they're a 7-8 win
team. I don't know. But
Minnesota? Like a huge reason
they, like ultimately Mike Zimmer felt like
kind of lost his fastball the last couple years.
They've, you know, and they went
through some personnel stuff, but
they've always had good players. The coaching just
wasn't very good. Now, if this guy is
good, and we won't know until we
see him coach because he's been on teams where he hasn't been the offensive play caller.
If he's a good dynamic play caller, he has good dynamic offensive weapons.
Minnesota could be good next year.
Hell, they have been kind of good the last couple of years.
They've just had some flaws and they just, you know, 8 and 9 and 7.
Like that's just kind of, they could be, especially if Rogers leaves, to me, 11 and 16.
And that's the thing with Aaron Rogers.
One story today is Tom Clement.
Remember McCarthy, I think fired him as their quarterback coach.
and Rogers is pissed off.
Rogers already thought McCarthy was a big meathead,
and then he fired his guy that he really loved.
Well, a huge part of the Rogers drama,
to me, Rogers, it's lucky that he's as good as he is
because I hate shit like this.
Again, it feels, what I said about Kyler Murray,
Kyler Murray feels NBA.
And when you feel NBA, when from a drama standpoint,
like, it's too much for me.
It's too much fluff.
It's too much like all about Twitter.
It doesn't interest me.
It bores me.
And to me, Kyler Murray thing, I just think it's clown activity.
Now, why I don't totally think that with Rogers is because one of the best players I've ever seen.
And if you're going to be one of the best, like ultimately Kevin Durant can be kind of weird,
but he's a top 10 player of all time.
Like he's one of the most talented human beings I've ever seen at a sport.
Barry Bonds, royal asshole.
You know why Barry Bonds didn't bother me?
Because I grew up a Giants fan and he hit 45 home runs a year.
And then he did the cream in the clear and started hitting 6570.
You know, if you're going to be the cream of the crop, the best in the business, like I can handle a diva.
Taylor Swiss, a little bit of diva.
She also slings about 200 million records or downloads or whatever, right?
I can deal with it.
I can deal with Aaron Roger's shit.
And I don't even think it can be a little overblown.
But clearly, he just drama follows the guy around.
But he's one of the greatest players to ever play the position.
Ideally, would I want Brady?
Would I want Manning?
Would I want, you know, Mahomes or Josh Allen?
Like, no drama, of course.
But that's not always the case.
And that's why I disagree a little bit with Colin.
Colin thinks like Kyle Murray, he's got to handle the drama.
Like, Colin, he's not good enough to handle his drama.
you know, he's talented,
but the last two years down the stretch,
he's gotten throttled.
He's become,
it used to be Tommy Lassorta said it was a limo guy,
I'm going to change it to an Uber guy.
You're sending the Uber to pick Kyler Murray up
in a big game because I don't want him to miss a snap.
Right? Tommy Lassorti used to say
when he wanted to make sure
Bavak was in the lineup, he sent a limo to the hotel
to make sure that he was in this, you know,
get his A-Bs
because he would strike that dude out, right?
And that's the same thing with Kyler Murray.
Like, I don't want to play a,
Aaron Rogers. I got no problem in January or December playing Kyla Murray. So look at the evidence.
So the thing with Aaron Rogers is all these teams are like hiring his people. When does this
ever happen? It doesn't. Because that's not the way it works in the NFL, but it shows you how
good he is like Doc Rivers used to say. And he probably still says this. As long as your talent is
better than your problems, you're okay. But the moment your problems exceed your talent, we got an
issue. And in pro sports, they say bye-bye to you. In normal people jobs, like, it's hard for you
to be that good at your job the moment you're a problem. They'll just get rid of you. Right. But in
sports, it's so, it's so obvious that there's you, everyone's trying to placate right now to
Aaron Rogers. Now, I still believe, and I don't, I don't have any insight information on this.
Just feels like gut information, watching this story from afar that he's going to be on the Denver
Broncos. But it does feel like the Green Bay Packers, and I remember when it happened in the offseason,
And I was like, I don't know, man.
It's going to be very, very difficult for Goudicent's and these guys to figure it out
because as a young scout and the way he came up, they don't teach you how to do this, right?
He's not, Goudicants isn't a business, man.
He was...
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Talent evaluator.
He was like writing up guys, right?
He's used to going to the combine in the senior bowl.
Like he's not into managing relationships,
but I'll give him credit.
And maybe LaFour has played a huge role in this
because part of being a coach, you're managing.
relationships much more than you are as a general manager. Definitely as a scout. As a GM, you have to.
They've done a good job. I mean, they have done everything humanly possible to put themselves in
position to keep the, you know, arguably the most talented player. You know, you say Reggie White in the
history of the franchise, right? So I actually think the Packers, you know, I still think he's
going to go to Denver Broncos. But I'm open to the, you know, to the possibility if someone told me,
you know what, Aaron Rogers stays in Green Bay.
Because from a football standpoint, not even a question.
If he wants to win, he goes to the Green Bay or stays with the Green Bay Packers.
They keep, you know, Devante Adams, they sign some more guys.
They're going to win 12, 13 games.
And they're going to host playoff games.
Now, as we saw against the Niners, like, it's actually not ideal when you're star players,
your quarterback, you know, and you have a passing offense to host playoff games
in minus five.
But that just is what it is.
If the Packers were a dome team, they'd be like the Colts.
They'd win 15 games a year and they'd be really tough.
But it actually neutralizes their.
greatest strength, which is their quarterback when they're playing at Lambo, you know, in the
frozen tundra. It's hard to win that way. But if he stays, to me, they're right there with the
Rams immediate favorites to win the NFC. Right. So it's just, I definitely give them a possibility
to keep them. It feels like they've just put themselves in position. That's all they could ask.
Because when the season began, it was like, he's gone. He hates these guys. And now it feels
like, you know, he kind of likes everybody, which is, which is positive. It just saw on a team.
TMZ, he broke up with his fiance.
As someone that's never been engaged,
do you, now obviously money to Rogers,
do you get your ring back?
She get to keep it?
What's the protocol on that?
Not that, you know, so listen,
you give it to her to her property,
but, you know, does she want to keep it?
Does she sell it?
What if the ring, you know,
what's a $50,000 ring?
I know she's kind of rich and famous too,
but just for normal people.
If you buy someone, you know,
engagement ring is pretty expensive
and then you call it off.
For normal people,
do you get the ring?
back? How does that work?
Always fascinated by things
like that.
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Another story today, Jim Harbaugh.
Clearly him in Michigan are working,
and they have the most successful season of their 10-year last season.
But it's kind of been weird ever since, right?
I mean, it sure felt like he wanted the Minnesota Vikings job,
and they would not offer him the job,
which to me is a little crazy.
If I was them, I would rather have Jim Harbaugh than Kevin O'Connell.
Now, I get it from their general manager standpoint,
who wants to control everything,
and these GMs kind of want to,
operate now like it's basketball or baseball.
But ultimately you're only as good as a GM as your head coach.
So if your head coach is good, you get credit because then you become good.
Like ultimately, Trent Balke went to three conference championship games in Super Bowl
because of Jim Harba.
We saw him with Urban Meyer.
I mean, he was holding on for his job for dear life and he easily could have been fired.
So you're only as good as a GM as your head coach.
Part of the reason Ron Wolf became kind of a genius because he hired Mike Holmgren.
And then he traded for Brett Farvin and Holmgren created an MVP.
right, like who your head coach is makes you look good as a GM.
So hiring Kevin O'Connell, it's pretty risky to me.
And if you would have hired Jim Harbaugh,
like they would be in position in my opinion to be good immediately.
Like, there wouldn't even be a question.
If you said Jim Harbaugh is the Minnesota Vikings head coach,
I'd be like 10 wins.
But now he goes back to Michigan.
Listen, Ohio State, my issue with Ohio State under Ryan Day,
he has done a remarkable job coaching the quarterbacks
and coaching offense and coaching skill guys.
have as explosive of an offense in the history of the school. What they did the Rose Bowl, I mean,
look like the greatest show on turf or something. It was stupid. They play no defense, though,
because his mentor, Chip Kelly, despises defense. Every single one of Chip Kelly's teams are soft,
because all he cares about is offense. He's obsessed with offense. Ultimately, Ohio State,
like in my lifetime, when they've been good, and they've been good, the majority of my lifetime,
but specifically these last two decades, they have been dominant on defense. Urban Myers teams,
some of those 2000 trestle teams,
they would beat the living, you know what at it.
They were like, they play like Georgia or Alabama
or Urban Myers, Florida teams.
They go, we got pros on every single level,
linebacker, secondary.
And we're going to kick the shit out of you.
So let's roll.
Well, Ryan Day's team is like, yeah,
we're going to score 50 points.
We might give up 40.
Like that's, now they did hire a new defensive coordinator
they do from Ohio State or, excuse me,
Oklahoma State.
But clearly they just have better players in Michigan.
Like does Harbaugh know,
it's kind of a one-off situation.
We're losing
Aiden Hutchinson.
I think they're losing
another defensive lineman
that's really good.
Their teams just
more and likely
be as good as they were
last year.
And the more and more,
you know,
he's only beat him once.
So as part of him
jumping is he's just tired of college.
He wants to go back to the pros.
I don't blame him.
He's not a college coach.
He's a pro guy.
Played the NFL for 15 years.
Coached
coach multiple,
went to three conference championship games.
Do you know how many coaches
in the history of the NFL
would sell their left nut
for Jim Harbaugh's resume in his four seasons.
People act like Jim Harbaugh, and listen, I was going to all these games.
That disastrous last season, disaster? They went 8 and 8.
Do you know how many coaches in the history of the league
would sign up for their lowest moment of their career in the pros was 500?
That to me is what makes Mike Tomlin so impressive.
Is Mike Tomlin's lows are not really that low.
And as high as you won a Super Bowl.
When your lows are, yeah, it went 9 and 7.
Yeah, I went eight and eight.
Like, that's your lows.
Like, most lows are, you know, four and twelves.
Five and elevens.
You got to add the game now, but I'm just still brain wired to go off the 16 game schedule.
But you know what I mean?
Four or five wins.
Hardbaugh's low was eight.
And he was that Minnesota Vikings head coach, I think immediately.
You know, it's like, you know, listen, I argue with a lot of people about Kyle Shanahan.
His lows have been pretty low.
His highs have been pretty high.
Four playoff games in three years and went to a Super Bowl.
But his lows, you know, I've seen him draft two.
You know, it's not ideal.
Saw him draft two.
Saw him go six and ten two years ago.
But size are high.
It's the thing I'd give him McVeigh a lot of credit.
That's why I think McVeigh has a chance to become kind of legendary these next couple years.
I've seen McVeigh's low.
His low was nine and seven.
He's gone to the playoffs four or five years.
Four of those were the guy named Jerry, or I guess three of the four were Jared Gough.
One playoff games, went to the Super Bowl with Jared Gough.
That's why I give McVeigh and Kyle a lot of credit.
They've won playoff games with Jared Gough and Jimmy Garopla.
You gave McVeigh,
Matt Stafford won a Super Bowl.
Right? It's like LaFleur. I've been impressed with LaFleur. I think he's done a great job with Aaron Rogers.
They've kind of mesh the offense and letting Aaron do kind of a shotgun spread it out with some of the Shanahan run concepts.
And their offense last couple years, multiple MVP's.
But what would he look like if I just gave him, you know, an old Matt Ryan, right?
A Kirk Cousins. Like, would he win 10 games or would he win 7?
I don't know the answer.
He's been lucky, and part of it is he took the job that had Aaron Rogers, who needed a lot of work.
So you get credit for that.
But it's, how many games would the Packers win if I just gave him Jim and Garoppel?
Would they go to the playoffs?
Maybe they would.
Maybe they wouldn't.
Hell, we might find out if Aaron Rogers bounces.
So Harbaugh coming back, which to me is good for college football.
Like, ultimately, and I'm a Jim Harbaugh, when I say fan, like, he entertains me.
I like the Jim Harbaugh experience.
I think he's better in college
for the entertainment standpoint.
And it feels inevitable.
His buyouts like $3 million.
He's going to come back to the pros.
You know, you're always drawn
where your heart is drawn.
And I think he, you know,
there is an element to the NFL
where it's just like, we don't,
none of the, like the NIL,
it's still kind of feels shady
even though it's legal.
Like in the pros, we just pay people.
Like, we'll give you $10 million.
We'll give you $5 million.
We want you to be our defensive coordinator.
Here's $2 million.
We want you to be our starting defense event.
here's $18 million a year, right?
It's just, it's very black and white.
It's like, well, we'll see if we can get this guy to sponsor us to give you $400,000
for NIL.
And one take I have for NIL, I heard Coward talk about, he did a podcast with Daryl.
And before they got into the interview, he talked about Caleb Williams is going to make
$5 million this year, $5 million from NIL.
And I've been one of those people that I thought it was very disingenuous for a lot of
the sports media that covers college sports
that always acted like guys
weren't getting paid.
Guys were always getting paid.
The top guys.
In cold hard cash.
That's the way it worked.
Forever.
Before I was born and it's been going on
up until the NIL.
The top guys at the top schools
were getting cash in basketball and football.
Everyone knows about it.
I mean, we have evidence.
The feds did a, they,
you know, they caught all those people in college basketball.
The going rate for college basketball players
is like $150, 200 grand.
Now, you can say it's a little unfair.
Their parents were getting money,
whatever, but we can't act like they weren't getting paid.
Now, $5 million, no one's getting $5 million.
But here's what I would say.
Caleb Williams, we saw him play last year at Oklahoma, star player.
I know this.
If I was in a businessman, I would be hesitant to get involved with my university paying recruits.
One thing to give $20,000 here, $20,000 there.
But if you wanted $500,000, a million dollars to give one individual,
half the college, like I saw the athletic did this article of,
the top 100 recruits from, I think, 2018.
It was Trevor Lawrence's class.
So it might have been 17 or 18.
Trevor Lawrence is Just a field.
It's one thing.
But a lot of the names, guys are still in school.
Guys never panned out.
Some guys are in the pros.
Half the guys are still trying to prove their worth.
The ROI to be the question on if a guy is going to,
you have absolutely no clue.
At least in basketball, if I'm getting the number one overall recruit,
The percentage chance in the history is Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson.
Like you have a long history of like most of the guys are pretty good.
In football, you know, this guy's a top 20 receiver in the country.
He could be the next Cooper Cup or he could be the next guy you've never heard of.
So I do wonder how this plays out with some of these businesses
because they're going to cut a lot of checks and the majority of players are not going to be Caleb Williams.
They're not going to turn into Reggie Bush.
They're not going to turn into Jamar Chase.
Those guys are outliers.
What do they always say?
the, you know, 2% of guys from high school football go on to play the pros.
And then a small percentage of people from college football, or excuse me, a small percentage
of people, 2% go on to play college football.
And then a small percentage of the college football players go to the pros.
Because most college players are just that college players.
Now, they have some value.
But some of the numbers that I see these guys are getting paid, these millions upon millions
of dollars, it's not going to pencil.
Because you're going to be like, wait, I just gave a million dollars to the star wide receiver
coming out of Arizona if I'm the University of Texas.
What if that guy never plays in three years?
What if in two years he transfers?
Now, there are going to be some guys that you feel very good about,
like a Caleb Williams,
like, you know, an Aidan Hutchinson,
like, you know, Jamar Chase, Joe Burrow, Justin Jefferson.
But like I said, those guys are more closer to anomalies.
Those guys are closer to not being the norm.
Most guys, I remember when the Raiders drafted Mario Edwards Jr.
in the second round.
It came from Florida State,
some of those good Jimbo teams,
and it was like,
they got this guy
who was the number one
overall high school recruit
in the second round.
And he was a good player,
but if you would have paid him
for what people thought he would have bid,
would have been like a top five pick,
been an elite player,
which he was not in college.
He's still in the NFL,
and he's very talented.
But like for every Debian Clowny,
you know,
for every Khalil Mack level player,
and Khalil obviously went to a smaller school,
most guys do not become that.
Anyone listening to this that follows, you know, if you went to a big school, Ohio State, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida, whatever, USC, Oregon, and you kind of loosely follow recruiting.
You know that most of your guys, you read about these huge recruits, you know, a percentage of them, 30% become like legitimate impact players.
Another percent just becomes starters.
And then probably 25% become irrelevant transfer and never play.
That's just the nature of the sport of football.
So I think it's going to be very, very fascinating to watch people investing into 18-year-old guys.
I think for every person that, you know, tried to get in Tiger Woods when he was 15 years old,
there have been a lot of Tiger Woods before and since that did not become Tiger Woods.
There have been a lot of Jedavion Clownies that, or Julio Jones,
that were the number one recruit and then the number one overall pick or number six overall pick, whatever Julio was,
that were undrafted free agents or were not very good college players.
So it's just, it's a fascinating thing that it's going to take some time to play out.
But I already see the overreaction to think every single kid's going to get millions upon millions of dollars.
Maybe at first, you know, maybe at first.
But eventually some of these kids are going to have to produce.
And that's what I already see.
Like, I don't know.
Some of these guys are just not going to live up to their money.
Appreciate everyone listening.
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not enough people know about and we're here to change that.
I'm April Dinnwity host of the new podcast,
Navigating Adoption, presented by Adopt U.S. Kids.
Each episode brings you compelling real-life adoption stories
told by the families that live them with commentary from experts.
Visit Adoptuskids.org slash podcast
or subscribe to navigating adoption presented by Adopt U.S. Kids.
Brought to you by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Administration
for Children and Families and the Ad Council.
Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy,
not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smiley.
and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an acapella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.
It's the enhanced games.
Some call it grotesque.
Others say it's unleashing human potential.
Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,
embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.
I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
This is an IHeart podcast.
Guaranteed Human.
Thank you.
