The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Middlekauff's 3 for the $$$ AFC + NFC Championship Picks

Episode Date: January 30, 2022

John is joined by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement on his AFC and NFC Championship Game picks. Lock in!Follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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Do they even still play the Pro Bowl? I don't cut the Pro Bowl. I refuse to bet the Pro Bowl. Some people bet the Pro Bowl, but I do not count. You know, are you a true gambler? Because I feel like the true degenerates got a little action on that bad boy. Look, I'll be betting like. Meyck basketball that day.

So I'll have my film. Yeah, you follow Stucky on Twitter. You know, he's heavy into the college basketball. But let's dive into these conference championship games. We got the AFC game, the NFC game. You can hear Stucky Action Network podcast every Thursday comes out. Also bets on campus Monday, Wednesday, Friday? Yeah, big bets on campus Monday, Wednesday, Friday, college basketball.

It's college football too, but we transitioned to college basketball through the end of the tournament. Well, let's start with the first game because I do think it could be a dud. I already have a large wager on the Kansas City Chiefs. I went back and did a little film study. The Chiefs were killing them that final game. They were up pretty, you know, multiple touchdowns. And Burrow and Jamar Chase turned into Joe Montana and Randy Moss. And, you know, came storming back.

The Chiefs kind of like last week couldn't cover anyone. But the one thing about last week talking to my boys in Kansas City, they thought that the Honey Badger getting C-Oed early in that game. Now, the Honey Badger is not what he once was, but from a cerebral standpoint, he gets people lined up. He's really their middle linebacker on defense. And the communication was all messed up. That's why a guy, you might have known.

I didn't really know who Gabriel Davis was. And I was like, because I kept being fooled by the team thinking, oh, Diggs is killing him. And then you'd be like, oh, that's 13 again. And it was crazy to watch. But I think when you probably look at the statistics and just watching with your eyes, I mean, Mahomes, these last six or seven weeks has arguably been the best player in football. The Chiefs, you know, four straight AFC championship games, the chance to go first, you know,

them and the Patriots over the last couple decades would be the teams to go to three straight Super Bowls. They're obviously a massive favorite. I know it's a big line. And the one thing gambling with you all year. Those big lines, good teams. They're dumb to do sometimes. But I think the Bengals, this is kind of a, I mean, they might be here to stay, you know, as a playoff team. But this feels about two years early to be this far.

And the Chiefs clearly are a powerhouse. I like the Chiefs minus seven. I like them big in this game. Stucky, what about you? Yeah, I would lead towards the Bengals, especially if I can get seven and a half. I mean, here's the thing. The Chiefs are spectacular. My homes is spectacular.

But they struggle covering, you know, touchdown or greater spreads. I mean, if you look back historically at Mahomes, he's elite covering spreads when they're under a field goal or in the rare case that he was an underdog way back in the day. But, you know, if you look back at his career, he's actually under 500 as a favorite of seven or more points. And by the way, Joe Barrow 10 and 2 against a spread as a dog of three or more in the NFL. And if you go back to 1970, favorites of seven or more in the conference championship game, they're 32 and 5 straight up. So they've won 32 out of 37. I would expect the Chiefs to win this game.

But they're only 15 and 22 against the spread. It's just a lot to cover. And the reason why the Chiefs struggle to cover such high numbers or seven or more, it's not because of Mahomes. It's because of their defense, right? Like, can their defense get enough stops? And then even if Mahomes is spectacular, as he generally is in the playoffs,

I think he has 24 touchdowns and one interception and at home in the playoffs in his career. Even if they're up 14 late, it's like, okay, can the Bengals go down and score and make the simple game? Absolutely. So I like the Bengals a little bit. I don't love it. I just think that they can move the ball here.

I'll be really interested to see if the Chiefs do blitz and if they play man-heavy because that's what Burrow has carved up all year long, and they did it. They went with their tendencies. They blitz and they were playing man when they played the Bengals and he threw for, I mean, Chase had, I don't know, 270 yards in that game. So I'll be curious to see how they play.

I assume the Bengals, their offensive lines are mess. They're going to go a lot of empty set to kind of negate that. Their numbers in empty set, these playoffs end all year have been phenomenal. And Burrow hasn't been getting sacked when he's an empty set. So I'm curious to see how they play it. If you're looking for a prop, Tyler Boyd out there, it's over like 37, 38 yards. He averages like 51, 52 during the regular season. I assume what the chiefs are going to do is they're going to say, all right, let's look back at that regular season matchup.

We obviously have no one who can cover Chase. Let's bracket him. Let's make sure he doesn't beat us, a la Stefan Diggs last week. They took him completely out of the game. And then guess who ate was Gabriel Davis, who had a million touchdown. So I think Tyler Boyd can be the benefactor of a lot of added attention to Chase. It could be Higgins, but his number's up there. Boyd hasn't had, he hasn't had, you know, explosion playoff game, so I think that number's a little deflated.

So, yeah, it's a tough one. Look, if you want to say, chiefs are clearly better. And I just, I'm not afraid of Burrow going into Arrowhead, even though he's so young. He's been in so many big games. And this team, this Bengals team kind of reminds me some of like the Ravens teams of Flacco. Like, they're just not afraid. So I don't know. If I had to call it, I'd say,

Chiefs win by four but I could see your argument here the Beggles could be over their head and you'll probably know right away yeah I agree and let's let's face it I mean we have the Bill's Chiefs was the heavyweight match we just got it a week early this feels like a heavyweight match Kyle Shanahan versus Sean McVeigh

the Rams made all these trades for this moment the irony is the Niners made one of the biggest trades in NFL history definitely the biggest trade in their franchise for a quarterback, yet he doesn't sniff the field because of Jimmy G. But Jimmy G's played in this game before, you know, just a couple years ago. Now, granted, he only had eight pass attempts in that game because they ran it all over the Rams throat. But I was at this game four weeks ago.

And it's one of the craziest things I've ever seen live. And it kind of caps off a street. If it didn't happen, they're not in the playoffs. None of this happens. I know. And you saw Sean Payton. He's like, I'm rooting against the Rams because they cost them the spot. Yeah.

We're sitting in our seats going, what's the game? the Falcons score. And by the time it got to like, I think it was like 24 to sit. You're like, you knew it was over and the Niners are losing, but it all flipped and the Niners now have won. I saw ESPN stats and info. They're the first team in league history to win three straight games on the road against teams with 12 plus wins. And this has a chance to be four. Now, obviously to be beating the same team twice. But I think we're on the same page here. I mean, I have money on the Niners money line. Now, but I'm with, I think this game is a coin flip.

I would hammer the Niners plus three and a half. Debo has owned, owned the ramps in the two matchups this year. Now, Cooper Cup's a problem. I mean, Cooper Cup is a major problem. He's a problem against everybody. He's going to get his, no matter who he plays pretty much. Now, the one thing Stafford, I give him credit these last two weeks, he's been pretty dialed.

No turnovers. Has just has looked awesome. The two games against the Niners this year, he's thrown four interceptions. So it's, to me, if he throws interceptions, the Niners are going to win. If he plays like he has the last couple weeks, probably advantage Rams. But the other big story, I don't know if you, you know, out in your neck of the woods out here, it's going to be a Niner home game. They tried to make it like, we're only allowing it to people within the, you know,

the area codes. And then Ticketmaster is like, we don't give a shit. So, and I think it's just going to be a sea of red. It's going to be tough, man. I love the Niners plus three and a half, and I like them to win the game straight up. Yeah, I agree. I think that there's, oh, and by the way,

just to circle back one last thought on the Bengals. The Bengals, like I said, when I said you have to know right away, the Bengals have to jump out to lead. They have to start fast here. I don't know if there's going to be a hangover for the Chiefs, but for what it's worth, teams in an, after winning an overtime in the playoffs, you would think, ah, side relief, let's go.

Only three and 11 straight up the next week, five and nine against the spread. I don't know if the chiefs come out just a little like flat after just such an amazing game. I don't know. But the Bengals have to capitalize on it. They have to come out fast. But yeah, in regards to Rams, Niners, three and a half is too many. I think these two teams are pretty much even from a power ratings perspective.

And then home field advantage, I'm like, there's none pretty much here. You probably have more 49ers fans. It's a divisional matchup. So there's familiarity here. I mean, both team, neither team had a buy, right? So it's not like one team at a buy the first week. And then. Yeah.

And I just think that they, these two teams, the 49ers match up extremely well with the Rams. They can attack the middle of the field, which is where the Rams are weak. And look, here's a stat. The Rams defense only allowed one quarterback all year to average over nine yards per attempt. It was Jimmy G twice. That was it. No other quarterback averaged over nine yards per attempt. I mean, I can go on and on.

I mean, Jimmy G's 15 and 4 against the spread as an underdog covering by nine points per game. How about 14 and 5 straight up as an underdog? That's the best winning percentage as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. And Chattanoe has owned McVe. He's 7 and 3 against the spread. 4 and 0 straight up as a dog over the past two seasons, 6 and 0 straight up over the past three seasons. I think they match up well. And one of the reasons that I liked the Rams last week was that the box blitz.

and they blitz more than any team in the NFL, and it ended up costing them at the end. They blitzed for whatever reason, Bowles blitz the guy that was on the cup. And Stafford all year has been great against the blitz. The Niners don't really blitz, and they don't have to blitz because that front four is playing so well. They're dominating against the run,

which is pretty much how the ramps set everything up, and they're getting pressure with their stunts, and they don't have the blitz. And that is what's really causing Stafford issues in both their matchups this year. I think they'll be able to run the ball, use the Rams aggressiveness against them. So, yeah, I like the 49th.

So you'll hear the narrative also, oh, you can't beat a team three times at a season. Well, since 2002, teams that swept, so only division teams, teams that swept the regular season that faced off in the playoffs, have gone five and three straight up. So they won five of the eight. Usually, when you beat a team in your division twice,

like a lot of times you're going to split. That probably speaks to the fact that you match up well more than anything else. So that's just, whenever people say you can't be a team three times as garbage. So, yeah, I love the three and a half here. I'm shocked that we get the three and a half. I assume this closes three. This is probably the dream matchup for the 49ers here

because you weren't getting a home game in the NFC championship. And maybe you don't want to play at home. And this is the closest thing you're going to play to a home game with your fans. So, yeah, I think the Niners are going to find a way here. I'm with you. This is, what would, if we assume the Chiefs win, their favorite against the Rams or the 49ers in this Super Bowl? So here's another thing. I think that the market, the line three and a half is odd to me because, you know, it closed three and a half at the end of the regular season.

There was still some uncertainty with Jimmy G. Maybe there's some uncertainty with the injury to Jimmy G. I thought he looked fine. And it was in the cold last week. He made some four throws, but there was some drops too. maybe that's priced into it. But I think home field is being priced into this line, and I think it'll be gobbled up by short money later in the week.

Because if you look at some of the look-ahead markets, the Chiefs are one and a half, excuse me, one and a half point favorites against the Rams and two and a half point favorites against the 49ers. So that's implying there's a one point difference between these teams. Say that one more time? So they were, what I saw, I think I saw this a day or two together. They're minus, chiefs would be minus one and a half against the Rams.

Now, keep in mind, this game would be played in L.A. L.A. But Chiefs would be minus one and a half against the Rams and a minus two and a half against the 49ers, which implies there's a one point difference between the Rams. The two teams. Which I can get to. And then if you told me that, fine. And then I don't have any home field advantage for either team here.

So if you made the line one, cool. I probably wouldn't bet it. If you made it three, I probably still take the four hours, three and a half, all over. NFL playoffs are in full gear and everybody can get in on the action with a risk-free bet on the Fandul sports book. It doesn't matter if you're new to Fandul or if you already have an account. All customers get up to $10 back if your same game parlay doesn't win. Okay, same game parley has let you combine multiple bets from one matchup for a big payout. Bet a little win a lot.

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Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American. history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. 1-plus and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, Jersey, Tennessee, and Virginia, or West Virginia refund issued as non-withdruable site credit that expires in seven days. Max refund $10.com. Restrictions to plight.com. Same game parley available for multiple sports in all states on mobile slash web. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-800-Gambler. Visit

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to Shopify's entire suite of features. Grow your business with Shopify today. Go to Shopify.com slash J-O-H-N, Shopify. Shopify.com slash John. Well, Stucky, let's soak this in every, you know, probably six and a half hours of football on Sunday. And then just hold on for dear life till the Super Bowl. And then I don't know what the hell we're going to do.

You got college basketball. I got golf and that'll have to take us to the summer when we just start thinking about training camp, you know? Yep. Well, let me ask you this for you. Let me go. As a 49ers fan, you went, like, you see, both, on scale one to 10, what was your confidence level on the first two ball games?

And then this one. I would say the Cowboys game very, very confident. Just Kyle versus McCarthy didn't feel as, thought the Cowboys were overrated. The DAC versus Jimmy matchup was, to me, much closer despite, you know, DAC being a $40 million quarterback, that played out a little more similar than we thought, or as I thought.

I would say the Packer game, I thought they were going to lose. Now, I had a little money on them just because I'm biased. But when I was watching the game, especially by about mid-third quarter, they were not going to score a touchdown, an offensive touchdown. So even though their defense was playing out of their mind and Lambo is really not kind to Rogers because his greatest strength gets neutralized, it's negative five degrees. You just can't, you're not going to throw for 400 yards. But they were not going to win that game if they didn't get the punt.

I mean, it just was not going to happen. So they now, the one thing, I was talking about this with someone yesterday. They are, and I heard Troy Aikman mentioned this. He's like, you know, this team reminds me of teams like from the 90s because they're not predicated on Mahomes. They're really more, remember that Brady team, those first couple of Super Bowl teams that ran out in a tunnel like as a team. like that this team is you know you know predicated on they've had guys think who have the game winning play against the Rams it was Ambrie Thomas they've had Jimmy Ward make big plays they've had Eric Armstead make big plays they had Joanne Jennings so they aren't is like the

Rams are predicated on Stafford when he's awesome they're awesome the Jimmy I mean they've been winning and Jimmy probably get shit on unfairly but if he just doesn't if he throws picks the Niners would be in trouble I don't think they can overcome interceptions and they got lucky in the Packer game that their guys were looking. He threw it where he, that's the time you wanted to throw is his pick that he's going to throw. And I would say even that,

they got lucky that, because that was a red zone pick. And in a game where points were it's such a premium, right, that could have cost them the three points. It could have really fucked them. And then Rogers throws that ball to Jones and then they end a block in the field goal. That was a crazy stretch of plays right there at the

end of that half that kept the nineers kind of alive. Where in this game, you know, they got even watching that Rams game week 18, they were down 17 nothing. Jimmy throws a pick. The Rams, if they're driving, if they score and just make it 20 to nothing, it would have been hard to overcome. But the defense is just, I think the nine, Demico Ryan's, Stucky, has been fucking awesome down the stretch. So, you know, it's just, and McVeigh, one thing I wonder and we'll know, like, when we're watching the game, it'll be interesting how Aikman says like, you know how Akeman always early in the game,

be like, you know, Sean McVeigh told us they approached the elephant in the room of blowing that game week 18. He brought it up right away Wednesday morning when he approached the team. Or will it be like, they didn't even touch it, you know, they pretended it didn't have. I don't know. That to me is going to be how he has those guys. Like, are they, you know, is that, are they shook from that or like they don't remember it? I don't know. I mean, that's, to me, if the Rams come out and win, McVeigh will get a lot of credit for being able to put that behind him. And same with last week, right? I mean, it was happening to get into him. So, like, I'm, I'm not a McVeigh. I think McVeigh's awesome. And, but for whatever reason,

Kyle, they just play opposite, even though they're from the same, like the Chanahan's taught him. He likes to throw it. You know, Kyle, maybe one day Kyle will wants his quarterback's a little bit better, but they are, they're going to run the shit out of the ball. And Debo, I think has scored multiple rushing touchdowns against them. Definitely a passing touchdown and he's thrown a touchdown. So he has destroyed the Rams this year. So can they just somewhat slow him down or is he just on a mission right now? This game to me is this is football porn.

I can't. I can't wait, bro. It's fascinating. Yeah, but the Rodder's point is fascinating because one of his biggest downfalls is he plays in Lambo and then a bad division. So you're getting like the one seat in home field where you'd rather almost be on the road going to these nice weather places if you're Rogers and that passing offense. Think about the Niners this year, Stucky.

They went two and four in their division, right? And won 10 games. Because even Arizona, like, I made fun of them, but Arizona won 11 games, right? I mean, they're tough. Somehow Seattle and Pete Carroll owns them, but it's just Seattle's got to be the best seven-win team in the league this year. I mean, when Russell, they're good. They're not like, they're not a joke.

They're not like the Falcons or something because of Russell Wilson. So the Niners, you just get like call. and you're just better, even though you might have a couple wins less than some of these teams. Look at the bucks. I think they're a good example, right? That division sucked this year. Yep, yeah. Yeah, it's that the, I think McVeigh is great, too.

The one thing to watch here, I'm the only complaint to have McVeigh. He's obviously great, like players, coach, offensive mind. The one thing where I think he's really poor, fourth downs. And if you look at some of like the win, over the last three years, win probability given up on four-down decisions. Yeah, he punts. He punts. He kicks field goals. is just when he shouldn't.

So, and over the last three years, he's actually been the worst in fourth down management. So I think that he's actually way too conservative. And then you have like Staley, who's like way too aggressive on the other end. But most people look at McVeigh, you think he's like this young fire guy, which he is.

But he gets real conservative at times on fourth down decision. So I'll be watching. One thing that would be interesting. And I think you saw it in the Bill's Chiefs game because that was essentially, you know, like a Super Bowl. matchup, right? Like, you know, a championship

matchup. McDermott came into that thing. He was going to come out throwing haymakers. Yep. Fourth and two, we're going at midfield. Right away, and it kind of set the tone for the game. And Andy at this point, once he's won the Super Bowl, he doesn't give a shit either. So he'll be peddled to the medal. Well, well,

either one of these coaches, you know, I would say McVeigh has a little more to lose. Just, he's at home. You know, he made the trade for the veteran quarterback. They've traded for Vaughn Miller, second and third. Does he come out operating like that? Or like you said, is he? Because Kyle, to me, the last couple weeks has been a little, like, whatever. We're not supposed to be here. And he's been a little freer. So to me, what coach is a little tighter?

Because in the Chiefs' Bills game, they were both letting loose. And I hope that's the case, because I think you get better games when that happens. Absolutely. Yeah, it should be a good one. Thanks, bro. Have a good weekend and check Stucky out. Yeah, Action Network Podcasts. It's out right now. So get your gamble on. The volume. Get right to the romance and find the way to wow this Valentine's with 1-800flowers.com.

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Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.