The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Middlekauff's 3 for the $$$ Divisional Round Picks

Episode Date: January 23, 2022

John runs his Divisional Round NFL Playoff picks by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement on this weekend's MASSIVE playoff slate. Lock in!Follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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And we got my guy Stucky, who you can hear every week on Thursday. Action Network podcast also hosts big bets on campus, Monday, Wednesday, Friday. A lot of betting material coming from Stucky. But I'm sure as a longtime gambler, you know, we only have so many games left here, Stucky. I know you're a big college basketball guy, but there's nothing like betting on football. And to my count, we got four this week, two next week, and the Super Bowl, that's seven football games left to gamble on until the fall. Unless you're sick in the head and bet on the Pro Bowl, which, I do not, but yep, only seven.

Okay. Well, let's just start Saturday afternoon and work our way through Sunday night. You know, I would say the Bengals, probably the better story of the year. We clearly have, you know, it's always cool when you get a quarterback, not like Joe Burrow wasn't, you know, famous before, but established himself as a star. And the Titans have just had one of the more miraculous seasons because I think the casual guy, Guy thinks they kind of suck, but they've beat everybody. And they got the big guy coming back.

You know, their favorite at home, minus three and a half. I would have to take the Titans minus three and a half. It's crazy. I was telling someone the other day, like, I don't remember, I mean, they haven't hosted a playoff game in a long time. I mean, it brings me back to my youth of some of those McNair, Eddie George games at Tennessee, which is kind of cool. Cincinnati, I got a stat for you here, Stucky.

Never won a road playoff game in the history of the franchise. So I like the Titans here minus three and a half. How about you? Yeah, I don't have a strong take. I think the Titans actually hosted a puck in last year. The Ravens won in Tennessee. Good call. But yeah, it's not been a regular occurrence.

Oh, yeah, they won the division last year, huh? Yeah, I think the Ravens, well, I was an ugly one, 20 to 13. See, again, I think Titans fans would be like, get no respect. No one even acknowledges they were hosting playoff games 12 months ago. Yeah. I will say that this time of year we put out a prop, one prop per episode. And I did bet Jeff Swain over 11.5 receiving yards. I think it's a really good bet against the Bengals who cannot cover tight ends for what it's worth.

But in regards to this game, you know, I would lean to the Titans. They're just a hard team for me to handicap in power, right, because they played so many games without so many of their key players, right? and, you know, so you're going to get Derek Henry back. Do you get a full Derek Henry? If you do and everyone else is healthy, then the play action comes back. It's also a good matchup for the Tennessee defense. Their defensive line has been surprisingly much better than expect this year. It can generate pressure.

They don't blitz, right? And they don't play, you know, a ton of just straight man. That's really what you have to do against Barrow. By the way, last week we pretty much nailed every game except that Raiders game we should have covered. They matched up. They do similar things. defensively don't blitz.

And, you know, that's kind of what you have to do against Barrow. If the Raiders just, if that ball doesn't go off the helmet of that Bengals player, Waller walks in. But, yeah, so I will say that, you know, you have a, this weekend in general has been for the underdogs, for what it's worth. But you have a Mike variable who's turning into, I think, one of the most underrated coaches in the NFL when he has nine or more days to prepare. So that's after a Thursday game or after.

a buy. He's eight no straight up, eight no against the spread, covering by an average margin of 18 points per game. Average score in those games 30 to 10. So with extra preparation, he's been spectacular. So yeah, I think that this is, it's a pretty good matchup for Tennessee, especially if you're getting full Derek Henry back in the mix. You have some injuries on the defensive line for Sinci as well. I could see them, you know, I could see them being up 10. And And, you know, you have Barrow, go down the field and get a back door, would be like a concern here. This line opened at two and a half took immediate money on Tennessee through the three up to three and a half. Don't have a strong feel.

I guess I would take Tennessee. If anyone, the right side was Tennessee minus two and a half. But this is a game I don't have the strongest take on. But you're right, Tennessee, the one seed in the AFC, they beat the Bills. They beat the cheese. And if you look at their numbers when they had their full arsenal of offensive weapons, their offense has been elite just because that play action game is so dangerous. A lot of in-breaking routes against that weak middle of the Cincinnati secondary.

So I don't hate your side there. Beat the Rams, beat the Niners now. I mean, you're right there. They play up and down to everybody. That's kind of their ammo. So what is that? I mean, it's the playoffs. But yeah, they're their team with a lot of potential.

One thing that would concern me with the Titans is I think if we rank the quarterbacks. and as the playoffs go, the quarterback play is just so key. I think Tany Hill would be last. Yeah. I mean, Jimmy's a rollercoaster, but I trust Jimmy Moore just in a big spot. But you're right. I mean, Tanny Hill statistically has had, you know, there are ways to defend him and argue his side. Yep.

Yeah, I mean, especially, it's all comes down to Henry. Like, if you have Henry cooking in outdoors and the playoffs, like, and then everyone is stacking the box. And then you have Jones and Brown healthy on the outside. That play action, even the tight ends is just, it's very hard to stop. I'll throw one of their stand out there. Totals between 47 and 56, which is where all the totals are this week, in outdoor games in this round, 37, 20, and 2, 65% since 2003.

Are overs? Unders, unders, outdoor unders. Yeah, you, I think you gave me a little tip on the unders last week, on the outdoor unders and the wild card round. I was a little nervous in that Bengal Raider game, but it did hit. Okay, let's go. This game is just, you know, I'm a little close to the sun here. So I wavered a little bit on the Niners,

but you kept convincing me all season long. And look, the dust settles. They're one of the last four NFC team standing. I went back a couple of days ago and watched the Packer-Niner game from week three. It actually was, obviously, the final score was much close, was, you know, 30 to 28. But there was a point in time where it was 17-0. but it was actually pretty tightly contested game.

The Niners, they're starting running back the game was Trace Sermon. They were missing Elijah Mitchell. Obviously, they're a running football team. You know, historically, they've beat Rogers. Now, Shanahan beat him two years ago. Harbaugh beat the Packers a couple times. The Niners have just, over the years, matched up well in these big spots with the Packers because they've just been more physical and tougher.

Now, I do think this is probably the best version of Rogers, but the weather, you know, it's going to be zero degrees or whatever, which neutralizes one of the greatest players we've ever seen a little, right? He can't just, you know, he sliced and diced the Niners in late September because it was beautiful weather. It's a little more difficult come to playoffs. I'm taking the Niners here plus six. I actually, you know, I'm going to sprinkle some on the money line.

I think it has potential for upset. Now, I'm also a believer in the Packers. I've just, you know, I was there live a couple weeks ago. I watched the way the Niners showed up last week, ready to kick the shit. shit out of the Cowboys. I would say the thing that concerns me the most, Ducky, is the enormous advantage you get, you know, on the buy now, you know, especially this week.

The Niners are coming on a short week on that Saturday night. Now they've played basically three of their last four games have been playoff games. The Titans, the Rams, and last week the Cowboys have all been on the road. So the Niners have been traveling a lot and just playing in just, you know, heavyweight matchups. So, you know, I guess if I was going to counter myself would be like, they might just run out of gas. What say you here?

Yeah, for what it's worth, favorites in the divisional round, after a buy, 28, 38 and 1 against the spread since 2003. It's not like they've been 42 and a half percent. So they haven't been great bet. Why do you think that is just the pressure? You just kind of, you know, you lose momentum. Yeah, I mean, some of it I think might be a little rust. Some of it I think is, you know, you have a lot of these teams like the

49ers that, you know, have been in playoff mode, like for the last couple weeks. Sometimes you have these teams that have been off a couple weeks. Like they haven't had to really win games. I also think the market, might just speak to the market over values. Overvalues. Because the Packers basically had a buy week, week 18. Yeah, that game didn't matter. Yeah.

So, you know, and it happened to the Packers in 2011. They were like 15 and 1, I think. And then they sat everyone, then had a buy. Then they lost to Eli at home in the divisional round. So, yeah, I mean, I would look at the 49ers here plus six. There's a couple things. And by the way, this is when you want to back, you want to back Shanahan. You want to back him on the road and as a dog.

And Jimmy G, for what it's worth, is now 14 and 4 against the spread as an underdog covering by nine points per game. 13 and 5 straight up. But, I mean, you do have to go against Rodgers. Rodgers is just a ridiculous. He's 69, 37, and 4 against the spread at home. Could you repeat those Jimmy G stats? He's 14 and 4 against the spread as an underdog, 78% covering by 9 points per game on average, and he's 13 and 5 straight up as a dog, including last week.

That includes the playoffs. So, yeah, I mean, the only things that really concern me, I mean, the four-dives are going to come out in there, and they were a different team back then, too. I mean, you mentioned Mitchell wasn't playing. They didn't really assimilate Debo into the running game yet, which has just been almost unstoppable. The defense also is playing at a completely different level. They made some changes along the defensive line. They had some key under the radar additions.

And the secondary is just in much better shape than it was. I mean, they had a couple guys get hurt then during the game. So they're going to come out and they're going to run it. They're going to try to run it down Grebe Bay. They're going to try to run 30th in success rate this year against the run. That is their weakness. I think that San Fred's going to treat this game sort of like the NFC championship game back in 2019, when they won 37 to 20.

and Jimmy Gw had six of eight for 77 yards. I mean, you didn't have to do anything. And I think they ran it 43 times, average seven and a half yards per carry. That was an ass kicking. Yeah, that was just, just a... This Packer team is much better than that version. Much better.

So the only two things that concern me here is I do think you need Nick Bosa. So, and he's track. He's playing. So he's just, he's so important to the defense line. And then without him, obviously, you lose one of the best, players, defensive players in the NFL. But then just the shift of where everyone has to go. Like you got to bring key back outside.

Like everyone, that defensive line is playing so well right now. And everyone has their roles. And then obviously your depth is hurt. But just losing him would be massive against Rogers. But so he's trending towards playing, I think. And I don't know if it's sort of like COVID with a concussion in the playoffs where it's just like, yeah, can you count a three? You're good to go. But I think that if he's even close, he's going to play.

And the only other issue is, okay, Jimmy G's. thumb and now shoulder in zero degree weather. What does that end up looking like? Because I'm assuming what the Packers are going to do here is they're going to completely staff the box. They're bringing their safeties down. And I would imagine, you know, they play a lot of zone. This should be a huge, huge kiddle day who just crushes zones.

But, you know, I think they're going to bring their safeties out. And if you get Jair Alexander back, you can play a lot more man on the outside. But they're going to play. I think they're going to just try to stack the box and say, Jimmy, you have to throw it. You have to throw it here to beat us and do those injuries in the cold. We haven't seen them in the cold with his thumb and now shoulder injury. That would be my only concern, but I think this line is too high.

I would lean also towards maybe a first half under outdoors. You know San Francisco is just – these are two of the slowest teams in the NFL, by the way. You know San Francisco is going to just run, run, run, just eat up the clock. The Packers, for whatever reason, have started slow. they're 25th and first quarter points. So, you know, and then they kind of get cooking once they diagnose the defense. But, you know, I would maybe look at a first half under. You don't want Rogers coming from behind.

You also don't want Jimmy G. having to shuck it all over. He's either going to be, you know, throwing it effectively or throwing it to the other team if he's hurt. So that would be my only concern. And you know that Rogers is going to turn it over and Jimmy G's probably going to have one interception, right? Like, he's going to throw it to a linebacker at one point when he doesn't see. them dropping back. When does that interception come? That's key.

But yeah, I think that the 49ers is the side of air plus six. I would imagine if Bosa gets ruled in and then you don't get a just, you know, word out that Jimmy G's completely crippled, then I think this line will drop by game time. Hey, each win with Fandul means that much more in the NFL playoffs. Yeah, the Fandul sports books hooking up new customers. 30 to 1 enhanced odds for this weekend's division. playoffs. Five bucks can win you 150 bucks on any team to win any divisional playoff game. I like the chiefs minus a couple of points. I like the chiefs over the bills. Just sign up Fandall Sportsbook,

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you know, you have the short week. I hate that the NFL moved the game on Monday. Just three and three on Saturday and Sunday I personally love. But yeah, this Rams team, I think they built their team to take on this Bucks team. Like this is their defense matches up well. They can generate pressure up front. And that's what you have to do against Brady. The offensive line injuries for Tampa are massive in this matchup, just massive against the Rams defense. since it's top seven and adjusted sack rate, the pressure rate. Aaron Donald has had a lot of success against Brady. This Rams team, look, they crushed.

Final score not that indicative, but they crushed the Tampa earlier this year. They also went into Tampa last year, that Super Bowl team in late November, and they dominated. I mean, they held them the 240 yards. They averaged two yards per play more. Gough threw all over Tampa. Buck's defense is a lot healthier now, so I don't think the Rams are going to get a lot on the ground,

but I think this is a Stafford game. He can have success against his secondary. He's excellent against the Blitz. These receivers are great against the Blitz, and that's what Tampa does. Tampa Blitz is more than any team in the NFL. So I think it sets up well on both sides. You know, you're going against Brady in the playoffs.

It's never great, but I think catching the field goal here is too many points. And for what it's worth, McVeigh, I don't know what exactly he does, but he always has his teams really prepared for these East Coast games. So, you know, when he brings them out to the east, they are covering machines. He's 10 and – plus he's 10 and 4 against the spread as a road dog covered by six points per game. But he's 10 and 5 against the spread on the East Coast covering by a touchdown per game, 12 and 3 straight up on the East Coast, including that game at Tampa last year. Yeah, so I think that the Rams are going to get this done on the road. Well, I think it's Titans fans are going to be mad at me,

but it feels like this is the AFC championship game in Arrowhead. And this is just, this is a fantastic game. I mean, if you like football, if you like sports, both these two teams, honestly, when they're home, when they're home, it feels like a college game. Arrowhead is just going to be going berserk, the star power. You know, Andy versus a guy that Sean McDermott's career started as Andy's assistant and worked his way up with the Eagles. So they know each other well.

These teams have played a lot. I mean, they played last year in the AFC championship game. You know, to me, this is a true coin flip game. I would just lean with the team that I've seen do it over and over the Chiefs. But I'm not like not taking the bill seriously at all. I would struggle to bet on this game. I guess I would take the Chiefs minus two. This feels like this line's come down a little bit.

When I saw originally it was two and a half, three, right? It's come down. Who knows by kickoff? Maybe it's one and a half. Bill's getting some love. But I guess I'd lean the Chiefs just because I've seen them win these games, and it's at home, which is, you know, for both these two teams, a pretty big advantage. Yeah, I think the bills are going to win this game, but I would need plus three to bet it.

I have lots. My only future this year is on the bills. I took some, a little San Fram, we talked about it, but my main future is on the bills before the year 14 to 1. And it's funny, we talked to be, right, maybe the first thing you said on the podcast is everyone disrespects Tennessee, and then we both are just like, yeah, this is the ASC championship game. So, and tights fans are like,

we beat both of these teams at home and we'll play one of them at home if we win. And the irony, exactly, they'd host the game. Yeah, they'd host the game, which is wild. Yeah, this is going to be an amazing game. Look, the bills have constructed their team for this game. I mean, they spent all offseason. They've been thinking about how can we beat the Chiefs after last year. And this is the fourth time they're going to play in the last two years.

they played in the regular season last year and this year as well. I'm going to make a case for, and shockingly, this is no everyone, no one's going to bet this with me. But I'm going to make a case for the under. And, you know, this game could easily turn out to be 38, 31. But I bet the under 55. It's like down to 54 now. I would not go any lower than that. I would wait to see if this total rises.

But look, if you look at these two teams, first of all, it's hard to replicate what the bills and the chiefs did on offense two weeks in a row this week. But these two new teams have a ton of familiarity with each other. Four times they played, there's going to be no real surprises. And Buffalo, when they played, you know, if you look, both of the times, the last two times they played, the game went way over. But last year when Kansas played Buffalo, their offense just went nuts. Buffalo has since fixed their defense. They're number one adjusted for opponent in defense. They can now get pressure on the defensive line.

They're going to play the two deep safeties. Earlier this year, the reason the game went over is because the bill's offense went nuts. Well, the Chief's defense is a different stratosphere than what it was earlier in there. They were the worst defense in the NFL. They didn't have Chris Jones. They didn't have Ward. And Spagnol's defense is always overperforming the playoffs. He kind of figures out, okay, what schemes are working?

And it's just one of those things. A lot of familiarity here. And the Chiefs now are, you know, and we've seen some conquerors out of both offenses this year. Like, just, okay, the Chief's offense looks really bad. And the bills, too. Like, they'll look great. And the next week, they're very inconsistent offenses. But what the chiefs have to do now, and the bills are going to make them do this, is their number one against the explosive past Buffalo.

And they're going to have two deep safeties. And they're going to say, Kansas City, go down the field. And we're going to make you go down the field, good on the field. And then we're going to try to create a turnover one point, a big negative play. That's what happens in the first meeting. So the chiefs now, who have been a little better at doing that since that Bills game, they have time-consuming drives. I mean, they have seven, eight-minute drives. I mean, getting over 55 points in the NFL playoffs outdoors, you need a lot to go right.

You know, if you have one red zone turnover, if you have a couple of field goals, you're not getting, you're not getting there. The only, I mean, this, it would probably be really bad if one of these teams goes way up. Like, if the Phil's got 14 nothing, then that's, like, that's when you live bet the Chiefs over at any time. Yeah. So, yeah, I think the bills are going to win, but it's close to a coin flip. I wouldn't blame anyone from, you can make a case for either side here. If you want to bet the side, because I'm sure no one out there wants to bet the Bill's chiefs under, I would, one, one bet that I made. for Sunday is I teased the bills up past eight.

I teased them up six points with the Rams. So both of those teams getting eight or nine points, I think at worst, both games are one possession. Well, I like where your heads at, Stucky. And that's a lot of good information. Have a good weekend. Enjoy the gambling. And let's make some money.

Again, I think the thing we both agree on the strongest is the Rams this weekend. I think that's pretty good value. obviously plus three, but even just take them to outright win. Like you said, the offensive line injuries, I mean, Worf's is one of the better, I know offensive linemen, unless you're like Trent Williams or really famous, like are not the sexiest positions. That guy's a star.

And, you know, he's high ankle sprain. He's done. And who knows? You saw last week once him and then, you know, Jensen is banged up as well. You saw once that happened last week. Eagles got after him a little. I mean, Brady was just getting tackled right after the snap every single play. Rams can do that as well.

They also have a better secondary. And look, it's just not a Tampa team at full strength. Their offensive line, you have, you know, you're missing Godwin. Antonio Brown is no longer there. All those things, I think. The only thing that makes me nervous, though, Stucky, is Stafford. Because when he played like he did on Monday night and when he's on, he looks like Josh Allen or Mahal.

He looks awesome. But we saw him that second half of the year. hell I saw him live throw multiple picks. It's just if we get the good Stafford, they can win this game by 10 points. But if he's the guy that fumbles, throws pick sixes, and it's just, you know, who knows?

And if McVeigh can just get his head right that he did, the Cardinals were imploding, but they still have a lot of good defensive players. And he was locked in. If we get the good Stafford, I feel very good. Yeah, that's going to be the case that I think a lot of people make and more casual better than I. Maybe it's the right.

Against the Rams. As you say, Stafford and Jimmy G are way more prone to make some mistakes on the road. And Brady and Rogers simply don't. These guys are elite. I mean, them, Russell Wilson, they're like three of the lowest career interception rates in NFL history. So that's the word. Stucky, I did the math. The last three years, Rogers has 13 interceptions.

Jimmy G had 12 this year. So it easily could have had about 20. You need that, like that Jimmy G mistake is you want that to come like. First quarter. End of, yeah, first quarter or like maybe at like the Green Bay 30, 35. Same with Stafford. Like if he's going to throw a pick, you can't have it be a devastating pick like in your own tie game in the fourth quarter.

Yeah. And then, because you know then Rogers or Brady are going to punch it in. So it's definitely a worry with both. But I think that there's enough other matchup advantages in value in the line to take the dogs here. And yeah, dogs in the division around 41, 29, and one since 2003, covering by an average margin about two points per game. So that might be the kind of the inflation you get with these home teams. So yeah, I think that there's value on both. and it's the best weekend in the NFL, I think. So let's get some good games and some winners.

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