The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Middlekauff's 3 for the $$$ Super Bowl Bets

Episode Date: February 13, 2022

John is joined by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement on his Super Bowl bets. Lock in!Follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Okay, well, this is, uh, This is bittersweet because not going to lie, I'm going to miss football games because I like football games. I like gambling on football games. I like watching football games. Stuckie's become a big part of my routine with football games. And you can hear him every week. Action Network podcast comes out on Thursday. Big bets on campus out several times a week.

He's a degenerate college basketball gambler. Just breaking down. I might have to have you back on for the NCAA tournament, actually. Absolutely. And, you know, what's, where are you at mentally with just? 60 minutes of NFL football left until the fall. Well, maybe we'll get an extra coin toss and get a little more than 60. But yeah, it's kind of bittersweet.

You know, I, it's just such a grind with COVID that the seasons feel longer, just from a handicapping perspective. But I love football. I mean, it was my first love. I played my whole life. so I'm always sad when it's gone. But it's definitely, college more so than the NFL. But when college was gone, it was kind of, it was more bittersweet than anything because it's just so much, there's so many teams that you're trying to figure out every week who's out for COVID.

And then you find out the team you bet on it's out. So it's the same thing with college basketball. So the seasons definitely feel longer, college more so than the NFL. The NFL is basically stopped testing, which is a nice breather. But yeah, it's definitely, it's pretty sad. You only have two weeks to prepare for one game and then there's no more football until August. But, you know, if we had it year round, we wouldn't appreciate it as much as we do. And hopefully we never get to a point where the brand of football is what we saw in the Pro Bowl.

Oh, my God, I've tried to watch that for two minutes. Yeah, I mean, let's – okay, let's just start with real football and just the game line. It opened it – was it four? And now it's depending on where you look, four and a half, five. My gut was just the Bengals are way worse than the Rams. And I was going to take the Rams. I'm just going to bet the Rams, whether it's four and a half, five, four, whatever number I feel pretty comfortable. But like I just watched the Joe Montana documentary.

And there's a chance Joe Burrough is just like Joe Montana. You know, I don't know. I mean, he just might be one of those guys. But they fall down a lot. The Rams clearly, you know, the sacks didn't translate against Tennessee because Ryan Tanyl is throwing the ball. Ryan Tanyl is not even remotely as good as Matt Stafford. So this defensive line, I would imagine that Vaughn Miller,

Aaron Donald could play on like one-day rest, but Von Miller's really going to benefit. And he'd been playing well, right, from multiple weeks off. Floyd is really good. And Aaron Donald, we'll get into the MVP odds. I mean, I think that's kind of a detackle sleeper MVP, even those odds actually aren't that great. I like the Rams and the points.

But I don't like. I don't say that with pure confidence because not of the Bengals, not of Zach Taylor, just Joe Burrell. He makes me nervous. Where do you stand as of recording this midweek right now leading into this game? Yeah, I'm leaning Bengals, but, you know, it's not a strong. I make the line around three. The biggest question is, what do you make for home field advantage? I don't make it up much of anything here.

It's going to be like corporate celebrity crowd. You have two weeks. There's no weather. So, I mean, you have to travel, but you have two weeks in between. So I don't think there's much of a home field advantage here playing in your home stadium. But that would obviously, you know, if the difference between making that one point versus nothing, it could matter when you're talking. Corporate crowd. You know, it's like I don't feel like fans.

Yeah. There's, it's, and that's how most Super Bowls are. But this, I think, will be even to the extreme looking at some of these ticket prices. Man. So, but yeah, Burrow has that, that it factor. I might personally just wait to see the Bengals that get down a lot. And Burrow is, as a broad underdog, has been absolutely money throughout his career. And just take a look at this.

Just in winner-or-else games. So these are like a couple of the end of the regular season games where they had to win the clinch the division, obviously the playoff games. Then if you go back to college, you know, the SEC championship game, the playoff games, the national championship games. he's 9-0 in winner else games with and he's thrown for over 3,500 yards in those nine games with 31 touchdowns and two interceptions in those nine games. And the latest one was knocking off Mahomes, although Mahomes kind of knocked off himself in the second half in the AFC title game. So yeah, I mean, if you look at it, they've, Burrow does have something to them. But if in the playoffs, it's like, all right, Tennessee, their defense kind of won. Kansas City, their defense got one in the second half of Mahomes.

I don't know what happened to that offense. They've gotten a bunch of turnovers. They've gotten a bunch of stops inside the 10. So there is something where you can say, look, this CINC team, if you look at some of the advanced matches, they were like 18th, 17th, 18th adjusted for opponent. Like overall, if you look at their offense and defense. But Barrow has this hit factor, like if the game is close late and he has the ball, whether he needs to go down and score to win it,

or if you're down 10 and need to go down and get a touchdown to cover, that you're going to have confidence in them. If you're on the other side, you're going to be kind of scared. So I'm leaving Bengals. I think the line isn't that far off from fair, but I just might wait to see if I can get Cincinnati. A lot of times, look, the Bengals have been throwing it a lot more since week 14. They're fourth in the NFL and early down pass rate.

Before then, they would just run it, run it early, and just, I don't know what they were doing play calling-wise. but in the AFC championship, they did the same thing. You saw them first down runs, early down runs that were doing nothing against Kansas City. And Burrow had to bail them out a few times.

I could see them getting conservative here again to start. And, you know, the Rams have, McVeigh has been here before and which I think matters a little bit with preparation two weeks to prepare. Okay, we got to, how do we avoid the distraction? So I can see the Rams going up.

And then if I can get like the Bengals more than a touchdown live, that's an angle that I might look at, but I'll probably have more money sprayed around on different props and such than I will on the game. Before we get into the props, one thing that it just popped in my head,

listen to you talk, is last year, it's a little different circumstances, but the chiefs were out there tackles. And obviously Tampa's front was really good, and it just destroyed them. And they had no shot. Mahomes was running for his life. This offensive line is just,

just terrible. Yep. I mean, is that something that just, you know, could it just overwhelm him, no matter how awesome and the it factor and how, I mean, you won't meet any human alive right now that's not a Joe Burrell fan, but it just, it feels like, you know, Elway, Marino, some of these guys have gotten their ass kicked in the Super Bowl, and it's not a reflective reflection on they're not all-time great players, right?

I mean, his team feels, I know you're a Ravens fan, so you know this division and know this team. so well. It feels like they're two years ahead of where anyone thought they would be. But it just seems like this matchup up front. And like you said, if they get down early,

I just wonder if those guys start teeing off. Yeah. That's the biggest wild card here. Can the, look, Tennessee can get pressure sometimes and they ended up getting non-saxed. Not an elite pressure team. Same with Kansas City. You know, the Raiders, you have

Crosby, but not an elite pressure team overall. And now you're going up against the team, you know, number one in past block win rate. That that's the big wildcard here. If the defensive line and past Super Bowls, more times than not when you have a really bad offensive line, now the sample size isn't big, right? Because you don't usually get to the Super Bowl with a really bad offensive line. Last year we saw it because there was injuries at the tackle position. But more times than not, the defensive line is the unit that dominates.

So, yeah, are the Bengals going to have to go empty? empty formation, spread out the Rams here and get rid of the ball quick. I think that's what they're going to have to do. It leads into some of the props that I like, but that is the big question here is, can Donald Miller and company just completely suffocate Burrow? And then, you know, especially if they go down, then you're just getting off on them. That's the biggest question here. And then I think we'll ultimately decide the game.

Early, middle, late. can the Bengals scheme around that? And look, yeah, the Bengals are certainly ahead of the curve. It's basically the Burrough It Factor's got here and a bunch of luck. Like, they were 300 to 1 to get to the Super Bowl longest odds since the Rams back at 99. And if you look at what happened, look, they got a really favorable path. I mean, outside of Kansas City just pissing down their leg in the FC championship game. Tennessee, this is the one seed you kind of would want looking at all.

One of the worst one seeds we've ever seen. all time. They got the Raiders who snuck in instead of the chart. So their path was pretty good. And then if you look why they had such low odds, I mean, the defense isn't great, the offensive line isn't great. But they're in a division with two potential contenders coming into the season the I've seen, the Browns and the Ravens had their entire team going, I are. I mean, from the get, though, you lose your Pro Bowl tackle, you lose all your running backs, you lose your entire defensive backfield. You know, Lamar Jackson gets her. And then the Browns, they dealt with COVID and a ton of injuries themselves. And then the Steelers were who they were. They were just about

a 500 teams. So the division opened up for Sinci to take it and get there. Now, they've covered, what, seven straight. So they're definitely peaking at the right time. And there's some, like, I don't know, there's an intangible, like, magic quality when teams just keep finding way to win. They reminded me that the 2012 Ravens who won the Super Bowl when they went, they beat Brady, they beat Manning, they beat Luck, and then they beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl. There's been five other teams that have won three games by one possession in the Super Bowl. And the playoffs and they've all won, ended up winning the Super Bowl. So there's just like this intangible magic butt. Again, throw all that out of the window if Donald and Miller

are just living in the backfield the entire game. There's, I mean, nothing that Farrak could do just like last year where there was nothing the homes could do. Fiannual Sportsbook is an official sports betting partner of Super Bowl 56. So to celebrate new customers can bet $5 to win $280 in cash. on either team to win if you use the promo code column. That's right. You get your winnings, cold hard cash, because we know cash is always better than free bets. Fandall Sportsbook, the number one sports book in America.

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A win is a win. A win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

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Go to Shopify.com slash John, that's all lowercase, for a free 14-day trial and get full access to Shopify's entire suite of features. Grow your business with Shopify today. Go to Shopify.com slash J-O-HN Shopify. Shopify.com slash John. What are your thoughts on betting on MVP? Obviously, if you like one team to win, the quarterback is safe money. and then you start moving down. You know, I would imagine this is the highest odds or the best odds,

I got them, six to one Aaron Donald, a defensive tackle ever. But it does feel, I was at the Super Bowl Carolina, Denver, when I had a lot of money on Denver watching Vaughn Miller, you know, just win this Super Bowl MVP, right? Several sacks, caused a fumble.

It does feel like Aaron Donald has the, you know, when it chalked you have, three and a half sacks and a force fumble that leads to a fumble six or something. It's not out of the realm of possibility. But is that number too high for a defensive tackle, do you think? Or is he that special of a player? He is, but yeah, I can't play six to one on it. I mean, first of all, the Rams not to win.

And then like it has to be low scoring. Is there an MVP prop that you like beside the quarterbacks? Yeah, if I was going to go, you know, obviously it's an interesting MVP market because the quarterbacks, they've won 31 to 55 MVP's. Defenders have won 10. you know, they have runoffbacks who basically can't run it out of one seven and then receivers of one seven. But you have two star receivers here in Chase and Cup.

Like, what do they have to do to win? They're going to get three touchdowns. They've got to get, you know, 200 plus yards. But if I were going to go with the, you know, if there's a low scoring game and the Rams defense dominates and they win the game, I would look, you could find Jalen Ramsey at 100 to 1. And I'd rather take a flyer on him who he says he's going to, he wants to, you know, follow around Chase.

Burrow throws into tight windows, and he's not going to be afraid to throw at Ramsey. The Rams also play a lot of zone. And Ramsey plays in the star position, so he's around the ball more. So low-scoring game, Ramsey has the star power, the name recognition. If he gets a pick six and the game is 17-7 final, could see it happening. An offensive player that I would like is if you think the Bengals are going to win or want to take a fly on the Bengals, you can find Higgins at like 45, 50 to 1. A couple touchdowns.

He's had some huge games. The Rams play as much zone as anyone in the NFL. Higgins is better against zone than he is against man. If you look at the zone versus, I mean, you look at the man numbers. Chase against man is unguarded. But against zone, Higgins' numbers are right there. I'm sure there's going to be a lot of attention on Chase. So Higgins that, you know, if you look at the difference between what you're buying

Chase at compared to Higgins, Higgins, 45 to 1. I think has some value. So those are the two guys that I would potentially look at is, you know, Ramsey, if you want to take a flyer to a defensive player in a low-scoring game, and if you think the Bengals have a shot, Higgins is probably going to have to have a huge day. Rattled me off some other props that you like. I like mixing over 25 and a half receiving yards. He's, you know, for the regular season, he averaged like 20 a game,

which is why I think this is a little low. But if you look in his last five games, we can, we had three catches for, let me pull it up right now. He had three catches for 27 yards against Kansas City, six catches for 51 against Tennessee, four for 28 against the Raiders. Regular season finale, seven for 40. Before that, six for 70. You can see, it's obviously treading up. He's been, you know, they've been using him as an extension of the running game in the passing game.

so much more of the last five to six games. I also don't think, you know, there was some health concerns with him throughout the year and you also want to save him. Like, he's going to get almost every snap in this game at running back. I also think the game script, look, the Rams are favorite, right? They're going to get a lot of pressure. They play a lot of zone. There's going to be a lot of checkdowns, I think, from Borough.

He's going to have to throw it a lot. And I also think P. Ryan, who, you know, his reception yards are nine and a half. nine, nine and a half. I like that under. I think that's inflated just because he had that catch that everyone saw last week where he took a screen for a touchdown, maybe. Before that he against the Titans, he had two catches for four yards against the Raiders. He had zero catches for zero yards.

It's the guy who could very well end up with zero catches for zero yards. I like Stafford under five and a half rushing yards. I think that's way too high. Now, he's gone over his rushing yards prop in each of the three playoff games on like fluky scrambles. But if you look at all of his games this year, including the regular season, the median is a half of a yard.

So that's what his median rushing yards total is per game. He could get a scramble here. He could get his sneak and get up to six, seven, he still could go under. Even if he gets to eight, nine, then you have the Rams are the favorite. You have kneels that come into play. So you could have kneel down to the end of the first half

or second. I think that's way too high. Now you could lose it on one little scrabble. I had Jimmy G under. four under three and a half last week. And he got a four-yard scramble and his only scramble at the end of the first half to like go down to set up the field goal at that.

So you can lose it on one play. And then the 49ers obviously didn't hold on. So he didn't get a chance to kneel. But I think that's way too high. And then I would look, I think Chase is a little inflated his number. It's like 80. But I'm afraid to go.

I'm way too afraid to go under there. But I do think that Higgins has some value over, especially against the zone. And, you know, if Ramsey, is going to shadow chase too. It's just going to open up more opportunities for Higgins. But yeah, Stafford under rushing yards, I think mixing in the receiving game, a lot of checkdowns against the zone. And then P. Ryan Under receiving yards are three of my favorite ones.

Oh, another one I'll throw out is cup. Cup over, longest reception over 28 and a half yards. Most of the time of these Super Bowls, especially with these Star Flares, the props are going to be inflated. So you want to look more times not, who wants to do it, but you want to, the value is going to be with the under. If you look at, you know, if you talk to people that actually project these things, because everyone wants to go in and say, all right, I think Cup's going to have a big day. I want to bet on Cup over catches. But I actually think that this prop has value over, longest catch over 28 and a half. He's gone over this number in 15 out of 20 games this year.

The Bengals ranked 25th in the NFL on explosive pass rate allowed. he's going to get, you know, 9, 10, 11, 12 targets. He's amazing after the catch. I think there's a really good chance that he can go over this number really easily. I think that it should be closer to like 32, 33. And he's going over 15 out of 20 times this year. You mess with the anthem or the coin toss? I don't.

I've been told there's value in the under, but I refuse to bet on either one of those because I refuse to lose a bet before the game starts. That's just bad mojo. That's a good call. I can't be 0 and 2 and then they're kicking off. So no, I don't mess with the anthem. I don't mess with,

we have some content up at actionnetwork.com, the Action Network app if you're into that. I'm sure we'll have some stuff on there. But no, I can't, I got to have a clean sheet right when they kick off. I saw, I forget who put this up, but some early Super Bowl odds for next year. I mean, the Cowboys are just, they were like 10 to 1. I mean, it's like, what are we doing?

You know, I mean, they haven't been a championship game in forever. But we'll have a lot of time. Is there, you know, value in the chiefs already? I mean, we're getting ahead of ourselves here. The game's not even here. But do you even mess with that or do you wait till free agency to draft before you even? Yeah, I would, if you're going to look and look, I've only bet my, I've only bet my team wants to, for a future, and it was back in 2012, fortunately, when they won it.

What awesome do you get on the Ravens that year? Well, I got them before the playoffs at 40 to 1, and they had to play the Colts and luck, then they had to go to Manning, then they had to go to Brady, just to get to the Super Bowl, and it was with Flacco, was a quarterback, and an aging defense, and they just caught magic in a bottle. But the Ravens at 30 to 1 are, I think, intriguing.

Because, you know, and look, the Bengals are going to be there, but I think the Bengals overperformed this year. I agree. It's still Baker, Mayfield, and Cleveland. And the rate, you know, going into this past year, it was, all right, Ravens or Chiefs, right, coming out of the AFC. Those were the two teams that, you know, a lot of people were saying it's going to come down to these two teams. And then the Ravens, like I said, they had, you know, Peters and Humphrey go down.

All of their running backs get hurt. They're, you know, they're star, they're all pro left tackle. It's just decimated. Most players on I are in the league. So you have this kind of deflated perception of what the ratings were. It's still one of the best organizations in the NFL. I'm sure they're going to draft. Well, I'm sure they're going to fill some holes.

And they're just going to get healthier. When's the last time they've drafted this high? I mean, since Lamar's been there, right? They've been winning in the first second round. So they're drafting in the teens now. And it's not just people make it just all you're drafted in 14 or 18. It's every round instead of drafting 24 and then 24 in the second. And then it keeps rolling over.

Yeah. Yeah. And that's when they do most of their damage. It's one of the best drafts in teams in NFL. So I think that the perception of where the Ravens are, you know, you still have this ultimate wild card in Lamar Jackson, whatever you think of him. And he wasn't even healthy this year.

It was just a cursed year. So them just being healthier, they're extremely well coached. They're going to have great special teams. The defense will be out there. The offense will be healthier. They're bringing in some new blood in the coaching staff, you know, and the defensive side of the ball. I think that that is a huge key because with Martindale, it was just blitz everyone, blitz the house all the time.

Now that worked for a little bit. Big ego defense, you know. Yes, but it got old, you don't have, it's also your going, Mahomes, who's the quarterback you're going up against? Mahomes, you got to get over. Alan, Herbert. Burrow, they all shred against the Blitz. And that's why they can never beat the Chiefs, but you're just trying to blitz the house against Mahomes. And they were trying to do it against Burrow this year.

bro, they scored, the Bengals were struck. Destroyed them. New scheme will also help the defensive side of the ball against the main contenders. So 30 to 1 at the Ravens, I saw that price out there. I think that they're intriguing. I like it, Stucky. Well, enjoy the Super Bowl. Enjoy your college basketball.

Probably be a good weekend for you. Be at the bar Saturday, college basketball, right into the Super Bowl on Sunday. That's what I call heaven, Stucky. So enjoy it, and we'll be in touch, and we'll touch-based March Madness, for sure. Yeah. We've a hell of a postseason run. Let's close it

strong and enjoy the game and we'll talk soon brother. Later bro. The volume. Thunderstruck adjective. Shocked and amazed by the power of fun on Carnival. Riding Bolt, the world's first roller coaster at sea. Brian got thunderstruck so hard, his 93-year-old

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stop by and we are getting ready for the biggest game of the year. So make sure you tune in to Benched with Beneta next week on the IHeart Radio app on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

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